CONTINUING MAJOR ISSUES

CHANGE: CRITICAL GLOBAL TRENDS/PROSPECTS/THREATS

Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-1108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.

Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.

ACCESS TO HIV PREVENTION: CLOSING THE GAP, A 40 page Report by Global HIV Prevention Working Group, (distributed after May 03 as Supplement to Foreign Affairs):-brief statement of Working Group's accomplishment states that it is region-by-region analysis of gaps in access to HIV prevention interventions; it examines current spending levels versus projected need; and it recommends funding and programmatic activities to avert 29m of 45m new HIV infections projected between 2002 and 2010. Worldwide comments; then analyses regarding regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia/Pacific, Eastern Europe/Central Asia, Caribbean/Latin America, North Africa/Middle East. Conclusions: HIV Prevention Resource Gap; RECOMMENDATIONS. Latter(each followed by argumentation) are: Global spending on HIV prevention activities from all sources should increase three-fold by 2005 to $5.7b, and to $6.6b by 2007. Because prevention efforts currently fall short of what is needed in every region of developing world, prevention scale-up must be central priority in each region. In immediate future, prevention efforts should aggressively focus on bringing to scale especially cost-effective, high-impact interventions. As both prevention and treatment programs are brought to scale, these initiatives should be carefully integrated to create single continuum of services. In addition to funding prevention interventions themselves, donors should, in collaboration with multilateral agencies, provide extensive additional support to build long-term human capacity and infrastructure. Development assistance and policy reforms should address social and economic conditions that increase vulnerability to, and facilitate rapid spread of HIV/AIDS. Research into new prevention strategies and technologies should be strengthened and accelerated. Substantial and sustained efforts by all donors should focus on improving data collection regarding magnitude and nature of HIV/AIDS spending in low- and middle-income countries.

Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the Unknown (Toronto: Time Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious: 17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists and academics. Aim is to survey where scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be global and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and implications; "Third World" -relevant technology; gender differences; care of global commons and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy forms; ethical computing; "homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at trends and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example of valuable collections of what are in fact 21st-Century global issues, put together by good general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions like anniversaries or new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with subjects global in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably offer reading lists. Good hunting!

James Adams The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North- South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attack son that technology's weak points. [World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare) not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location (e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed- action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?). One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

Shardul Agrawala & Steinar Andresen"Indispensability and Indefensibility? The United States in the Climate Treaty Negotiations" Global Governance Vol.5/No.4(Oct/Dec 99):-insightful essay not only relevant to most critical environmental issue facing global community(Grubb 99 op.cit); helps explain both sudden changes or galling intransigence in US positions on variety multilateral questions(for UN: Lyons op.cit.). Recalls major US environment statements, policies and positions, and shows them surprisingly erratic even under same president. Then identifies powers and interests of many forces and often key individuals within US administrations, Congress, industry, public opinion and dedicated pressure groups that influenced environmental policy, and shows how their interplay affected or determined volatile or stubborn US position on climate change at various times.

Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign Affairs Vol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN UNSG for Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Afghanistan and Iraq. Provides analysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three draw "attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction, authors belie inherent complexities of task... Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/ maintained. Yet none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations."Essay is worth reading - as a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: COST/PATENT DILEMMA; GLOBAL ASSISTANCE

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: POLICY ISSUES AND CONFERENCES

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach the material dealing with cost and patent issues relating to AIDS, click on AIDS: COSTS.

To reach the material dealing with AIDS-related policy issues and conferences, click on AIDS: POLICIES.

Fouad Ajami"The Ways of Syria: Statis in Damascus"(153-158)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.3 (May/Jun 09):-Review Essay of Itamar Ravinovich: The View From Damascus: State, Political Community, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria(Vallentine Mitchell 08, 365pp. $49.95). Official summary:"As Washington [and Israel?] consider[s] a rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad's Syria, Itamar Ravinovich's commanding new book makes clear that change will not come quickly or easily - and, if the past is any indication, it may not come at all". Selected emphatic extract:"A big... book of history and diplomacy by the Israeli scholar takes readers deep into the world of the Syrian state - and into that mix of pride and injury that has shaped its modern history. [He] tracks the twists and turns of Syria's political journey in recent decades, its transformation from the plaything of outside powers into a player of consequence in the Levant. No other writer has dug as deep into such material as [author] has in this book, a distillation of a lifetime of concern with the ways of Syria". Ajami: Professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ School of Advanced International Studies and Adjunct Research Fellow at Hoover Institution.

Madeleine K.Albright"The Testing of American Foreign Policy"Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6 (Nov/Dec 98):-deliberately-crafted, hence deeply discouraging for at least three sorts of human beings:(1)those who sense both inherent justice and necessity of multilateralism in world of legally equal states;(2)those acutely conscious of global perspectives/ imperatives being forced on all states/people by rapidly accelerating/fundamental change/product: interdependence; (3)above all, those who see that states can - and henceforth must - have longer-term and better motives than to act in such totally short-term and self-serving ways as would generate total disgust if exhibited by any individual. Yet article specifically confirms "the goals of American foreign policy...have not changed in more than 200 years. They are to ensure continued security, prosperity, and freedom of our people." Such "realist" priorities at very least influence perspectives of most governments even if" softened" by 3 now-essential qualifiers. Yet US has unprecedented power of manoeuvre, and US leadership and example in everything is stressed. Opportunity might now be exploited to reflect "new realities" :Globalism is 21st Century Realism.

Martin Albrow The Global Age: State and Society Beyond Modernity(Stanford: Stanford Univ. Press 97):-largely theoretical look at globalization, but offering many practical insights about global institutions. Basic thesis: while political, social, economic and technical elements of modernity and nation-state continue, entering new era where globality, i.e. global viewpoint, will gradually replace them. UN system, being representative of states, need not be world state, but will become increasingly system reflecting views and debating values of humanity(119-144).

John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/ religious bodies/ groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support (UN) operations; technological sanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategic implications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning".

Graham Allison Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):- extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US in the decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structures and access to technical know- how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower is inevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; global alliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weapons states; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements; global prosecuting war on terrorism (205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.

Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put these threats at the top of his national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries". Emphasized extracts:"Over the past eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons". "Obama's mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School of Government. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation. Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson "The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, but many political and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From first paragraph:"Over the past three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear agenda includes renewing formal arms control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear nonproliferation regime, and redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made this goal a priority for his administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he was Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.

Philip G.Altbach & Roberta Malee Bassett"The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers"Foreign Policy No.144(Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be influenced by "worldly" visions. Despite new global concerns with terrorism, "there is no holding back the flow of students seeking education beyond their borders"; Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase to 8m by 2025". Regarding content, "literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/management, engineering, mathematics/computer sciences". About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asian countries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled through distance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leading receiver countries (with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000), Britain (223,000), France(135,000), Germany(185,000), US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own study/living expenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintain strong ties from abroad, some eventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies by providing expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remains problem for many poorer societies". It may then be related to expenses that "increasing number [of potential foreign student payers is] looking for new options in developing world"; emergence of mega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of 'brain trade' forever [See below for the summary of: Richard C.Levin "Top of the Class: The Rise of Asia's Universities"Foreign Affairs (May/Jun 10).

Lawrence K.Altman "Report Shows AIDS Epidemic Slowdown in 2005"New York Times 30 May 06:- "New surveys suggest that global AIDS epidemic has begun to slow, with decline in new HIV infections in about 10 countries, leader of UNAID program said. Outside of those countries,.. number of new AIDS infections continues to rise or hover at its current pace. Meanwhile, public health efforts are reaching only a small proportion of people at risk, Dr.Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS, said at news conference in UN NYC... India has 5.7m infected people and South Africa 5.5m, but India's population far greater. Showing no sign of decline, South Africa has a prevalence rate of about 19% of 47m people. In India, rate is less than 1% of its population of 1.1b. Progress against AIDS in some regions represents dividends from a surge in financing since 2001, when UN pledged its commitment to stem epidemic by 2010. Declaration called for countries to report regularly on their responses to AIDS. This week, UNGA will receive the progress that 126 countries have said they have made. Report(op.cit.), most comprehensive survey ever compiled from country data, pointed to the 2001 UN meeting as a turning point for AIDS financing. In 2005,.. world spent $8.3b on AIDS, compared with $1.6b in 2001. 'We are seeing the impact', Piot said. He cited increased condom use, a rise in postponement of sexual intercourse and a decrease in number of sex partners as factors in slowing of epidemic. Summarizing report's findings, Piot said '2005 was least bad year in the history of the AIDS epidemic'... Despite the positive trends, Piot reported grim findings from China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Russia and Vietnam(op.cit.), with signs of outbreaks in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Ending the pandemic will depend largely on changing social norms like empowering women, reducing stigma of the disease and encouraging a greater reduction in the number of sex partners, report said. Most countries have strong foundations for building an effective response against AIDS, report said, but systems to carry out plans remain inconsistent. Thoroughness of the individual national reports varied, and many countries did not provide data for all categories ... Still, replies identified significant weaknesses, he said. Fewer than 50%of young people achieved comprehensive knowledge levels about HIV, far fewer than the 90% goal. Only 9% of gay men and fewer than 20% of intravenous drug users received any kind of HIV prevention help in 2005. Services to prevent HIV infections in infants have not scaled up as rapidly as programs to provide antiretroviral therapy. Just 9% of pregnant women were covered... Report shows that epicenter of the epidemic remains in sub-Saharan Africa. There epidemic has reached peak, but incidence remains unacceptably high, Piot said. Across most of Africa, HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending clinics has remained roughly level for several years. UN disputed contentions by some observers that the levelling off showed a turning point in the AIDS epidemic in Africa... Piot said, 'actual number of people infected continues to rise because of population growth'"; Lawrence K.Altman"U.N. Urges Tripling of Funds by '08 to Halt AIDS"NYT 01 Jun 06:- "Stopping epidemic of AIDS will require $22b/year by 2008 and possibly more in following years, officials of UNAIDS program said. The $22b is nearly triple the $8.3b spent 05 by all sources, including governments and private sector. Urging that countries spend more, UNSG Kofi Annan said a costlier and more sustained effort needed because AIDS 'has spread further, faster and with more catastrophic long-term effects than any other disease'... Of projected figure, half is needed for prevention and a quarter for treatment and care of infected people. Remainders for care of orphans, children at risk of becoming infected and program costs. UNSG and Piot of UNAIDS spoke as UNGA began meeting aimed at renewing political commitment and setting new goals for expenditures and for measuring progress... Annan urged delegates to challenge countries trying to avoid goals that mention gay people, prostitutes, intravenous-drug users and others at high risk of becoming infected. 'Governments concerned need to be realistic and responsible', UNSG said. He also said that 'if we are here to try to end the epidemic, we will not succeed by putting our head in the sand and pretending that these people do not exist or they do not need help'... Report cards showed that most countries missed more goals than they met. More than 20m have become infected since 2001 meeting. Now countries must fundamentally change the way they think and deal with epidemic, moving from crisis management to 'sustained attention and the kind of "anything it takes" resolve that member states apply to preventing global financial meltdowns or wars' , Piot said... Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS released a study showing that private companies have become more likely to provide treatment for employees as cost of antiretroviral drugs has fallen over last six years, to $140-$300/year, from $10,000. In African countries with a high prevalence, more than 70% of companies surveyed are fully subsidizing access to HIV treatment, coalition said. Study...found increasing trend to expand such treatment to employees' dependents. Companies also offering access to voluntary testing/counseling"; Lawrence K.Altman & Elisabeth Rosenthal"U.N. Strengthens Call for a Global Battle Against AIDS" NYT 02 Jun 06:- "[UNGA] adopted strongly worded declaration [02 Jun] aimed at pressing nations of the world to strengthen their battle against AIDS, global pandemic [UNSG] called 'greatest challenge of our generation'. Language of document surprised even anti-AIDS groups, which said that while it did not satisfy all their objectives, they had feared it would be watered down... Nonbinding declaration reaffirms commitments made in 01, when UN defined AIDS as far more than a medical issue, framing it in terms of political/ human rights/economic survival... New document is political blueprint, not plan of action. Calls for strong commitment to bolster the rights of women/girls so they can protect themselves from infection with HIV... Declaration calls on countries to: use scientifically documented prevention strategies, including condoms; make clean needles accessible to drug users; take steps to provide universal access to prevention programs/ care/antiretroviral drugs. Includes politically charged terms like 'condoms'/'vulnerable groups', though those groups not specified... Countries expected to measure their progress over next 5 years against targets to be determined by UN... Said world will need to spend up to $23b/year by 2010... Earlier in day, UNSG Annan delivered a gloomy assessment, saying world was losing the battle. 'The epidemic continues to outpace us' , he told packed UNGA. 'There are more new infections than ever before; more deaths than ever before; more women/girls infected than ever before'... [US's] Mrs.Bush speech steered away from many of the criticisms that have been labled against administration, notably that it promotes sexual abstinence over scientifically proven strategies, particularly condom use. Indeed, she said, 'ABC' model - initials stand for abstain, be faithful and use condoms - had brought sharp declines in infections in Africa. Britain's international development [minister] said in interview: abstinence alone did not work ...Dr. Peter Piot [UNAIDS] said: while no document could make anyone '100% happy', final version was 'a major advance' and far stronger than weaker drafts circulating earlier in week".

Roger C.Altman "The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West"(2-14) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"The economic collapse of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the West. It has stripped Wshdc and European governments of the resources and credibility they need to maintain their roles in global affairs. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the meantime they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the US". Emphasized extracts:"The crisis' underlying cause was the combination of very low interest rates and unprecedented levels of liquidity". "US deficit for the fiscal year that began in Oct 08 will approach $1 trillion - or 7.5% of US GDP". Altman is Chair/CEO of Evercore Partners. Was US Deputy Treasury Secretary 93-4.

Chris Anderson"The Young (stressing Youth and Age)"The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explores causes/elements/ global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China). "About... growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to... tearing down of traditional...order. [T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so. [Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders". Rapid, relentless pace of change(technological/social) favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/ technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; risk futures; prefer opportunity to wealth/security; demand/ deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2) reports youth's growing role/impact in decision-making. ["W]ell- prepared input can be more influential than [votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge] Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow; increasingly they are leaders of today".

Kofi A.Annan"The Quiet Revolution"Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others"; collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity of purpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility".

Kofi A.Annan"Two Concerns of Sovereignty: International Intervention in Humanitarian Crises" The Economist18 Sep 99(49-50):-UNSG gives his views on basic issues. Inaction in Rwanda and interventions in Kosovo(no authority) and East Timor(too little too late)all justify criticism. We need consensus "not only... that massive and systematic violations of human rights must be checked...but also on ways of deciding what action is necessary, and when, and by whom." Critical points: "intervention" should not be understood as referring only to use of force; we need redefinition of sovereignty and broader definition of national interests that "would induce states to find greater unity in pursuit of common goals and values... today, collective interest is national interest"; if force is necessary, Council must uphold Charter; act "in defence of our common humanity"; ceasefires do not end commitments.

Kofi A.Annan"Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global efforts to foresee, prevent or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN activities over the year to Sep 99, and selected plans/problems(in 130 pp). Chapters address: peace/security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights; administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN obligations/reforms/ savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial irresponsibility. Regarding GLOBAL TRENDS, Annan's essay urges "transition from a culture of reaction to a culture of prevention" (18)since taking a few relatively cheap monitoring and preventive actions wherever and whenever conflict or natural disaster seem most likely, effectively insures immense savings in lives and money for all. Included are long-term democratic and development strategies.

Kofi A.Annan"UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution and falling water tables(see World watch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people [over 50% children] die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world". [Technology can help:] Douglas Jehl"Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst"New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay (2.3m residents)will be the first large urban area to do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day) desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states (cheaply) desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/ technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]

Kofi A.Annan"We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, Secretary General's UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them". Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/ action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth find decent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV. Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WAD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposing weapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration of environment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management through structural/ agenda reform, priority- setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence. Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" New York Times 4 Apr; The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World"(51).

Kofi A.Annan"Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep 99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress and challenges at turn of millennium, and suggests ways in which international community can work together to" better lives of people still left behind". Introduction, summarizing 130-page report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources. (5)Reviews analysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6)controversial economic benefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared. (7)Must be cooperative management of global economic affairs through more effective governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions, civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/ Security; Humanitarian Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UN Management.

Kofi A.Annan"Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities"The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's already concentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/ proposals. Its value is less to summarize panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss."We face world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peace and security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengthen international rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security. Clusters: economic/ social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/ radiological/ chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime. Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe is staggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor states to respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's world any threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection, all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Given gravity/ interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violent conflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger of inadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues and worst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit disease treatment/ local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale natural epidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses. Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New is range/scale/ intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members). Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non- combatants, with purpose of intimidating population/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus and strengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichment and urged to voluntary time-limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitor compliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hasten efforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/ reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals (democracy/justice/ development) remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/ peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to give strategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/ questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force? (2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat? (3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary? (5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/ pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection- responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/other comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under- appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised (1945) to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/ security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/ diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole; not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/ better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/ mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSG more responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again find world mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report. I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/ addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR> International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Clair Apodaca, Michael Stohl, George Lopez,"Moving Norms to Political Reality: Institutionalizing Human Rights Standards through the United Nations System" (185-220)in The Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century(New York: UN Univ. 98):-extremely useful study of UN human rights structures, treaties and activities, employing a new sense that state legitimacy derives from internal order and regard for standards. Four main UN purposes include promotion of human rights, set down in Universal Declaration(48)and amplified in two International Covenants(76).All three now binding on all states. Many more specific UN System treaties, with recent emphasis on Humanitarian Law. Growing human rights roles of NGOs, High Commissioner and complex UN structures are explained. Reform proposals involve structure, NGO protection and regional action.

John Arquilla & David Ronfeldt edit. In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age(Santa Monica: RAND 97):-while addressed to US concerns, issues raised are global. Included: new world epoch of conflict will revolve around knowledge; information revolution, being both organizational and technological, empowers small, non-state, networked actors vis-a-vis hierarchies(i.e. states); threats are diffused, nonlinear and complex; conflict tends militarily towards "cyberwar", socially to diverse but comprehensive "netwar"; new trends are found in: state, business, and NGO roles, information warfare, global crime and terrorist capacity. Information on balance promotes peace. All these developments affect the UN role in maintaining peace and security.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. The Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" New York Times12 Jan 00:-deals with real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal. Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross earth's orbit. This produces about 1% chance of one hitting earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material believed left over from formation of solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of mile to six miles, big enough to "wreak global disaster." NASA has just lowered estimated number of such killers to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able to destroy cities. Britain has just set up risk assessment committee. AP "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" NYT 18 Sep 00:-above committee reported to have urged British government to seek international partners to fund powerful new telescope to be stationed in southern hemisphere; governments should launch joint studies to assess how to destroy object on collision course with planet. Committee estimated that "wide object" crashes into our planet every 10,000 years with force of 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a little [money] into making certain we know if there is danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet".

Associated Press, "Number of Refugees Grows Worldwide" New York Times 13 Jun 00:-World Refugee Survey 2000, issued by prestigious US Committee for Refugees, claims that at end of 20th Century there were 35m people worldwide "uprooted and in need of protection." Conflict contributed 7m to this in 99 alone, and despite UN success in ending some long-term disputes following end of Cold War, this estimated total had risen from 29m in 90. Moreover, of these, 13.7m are found in Africa(4.4m in Sudan alone).Another trend has been continually growing number of refugees that for various reasons remain in their own countries: Internally Displaced Persons. Identified IDPs now number at least 4m, and clearly demand higher priority from UN-UNHCR since they are not afforded same legal protections and care as" international" refugees under Geneva Conventions. On other hand, there is hope that some sources of refugees and IDPs may be in sight of permanent solution. Elizabeth Rosenthal, "Famine in North Korea Creates Steady Human Flow into China" NYT 10 Jun:-report on motives and stratagems of North Korean refugees within/outside their country. Any moves towards Korean reconciliation could have major and rapid effect on this crisis. For even longer-term look at issue of unwilling migration, AP reports "Conference Addresses Migration" NYT 10 Jun:-experts Paris meeting organized by Universal Academy of Cultures concluded "globalization demands greater moral responsibility and intervening in sovereign nations is plausible response to misery that drives populations beyond their borders." Those seeking political asylum increased from 250,000 in 87 to 900,000 in 92, but then declined to 388,000 in 98,perhaps reflecting growing influence of such perception in UN. Meanwhile, if Europe's population falls 100m by 50, migration waves may become beneficial.

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year- review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing [out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities". Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right".

Associated Press"AIDS Conference Ends With Appeals"New York Times 26 Apr 06:- "International AIDS conference [in Cape Town, of 1,000 scientists/researchers,] ended [26 Apr] with impassioned appeals to political/pharmaceutical industry leaders to fund development of a virus-killing [vaginal] gel to protect women from the disease and so save millions of lives. Peter Piot, head of UNAIDS,.. said safe/effective microbicides could be ready in 5-7 years, with only minimal additional funding, and thus turn the dream of saving millions of lives into reality... In the hard hit African countries, women account for nearly 60% of infections. Most are infected through heterosexual intercourse... UNAIDS/WHO have long promoted microbicides as a potentially valuable weapon in fight against the epidemic, not least because it allows women to protect themselves without having to rely on partners who refuse to wear a condom or be faithful. Yet despite this, research has proceeded slowly. [Piot] said investment in MICROBICIDES development should be doubled - and even then would still only reach about US$150m per year...Microbicides can take the form of a gel, cream, sponge or ring that releases an ingredient that can kill or deactivate HIV during intercourse. There are currently five different products being tested[, mainly in Africa on thousand of women]. Dozens of agents that could interrupt HIV transmission have so far been identified. There are also hopes that the microbicides could be used to prevent other sexually transmitted diseases and unwanted pregnancies. One of the products, cellulose sulphate, has the potential to be a contraceptive and shield against HIV... Another MICROBICIDES, Carragard, coats vaginal cells and prevents the virus from entering...Much of funding for research comes from Gates Foundation and US government... Trying to dismiss fears that microbicides would mainly be used in developing countries and therefore offer only low profit margins, [WHO] cited their potential for use in contraception in wealthy countries".

Associated Press "U.N. Says Missile - Defense System Limited" New York Times 22 Jun 06:- "US said [22 Jun] missile-Defense system under development has 'limited operational capability’ to protect against weapons such as the long-range missile North Korea is said to be near firing. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley underscored US calls for North Korea to abandon any plans for testing the missile believed capable of reaching US soil. 'We're watching it very carefully and preparations are very far along', Hadley said... In Washington, a top Pentagon official said that a missile launch would be 'a provocation and a dangerous action’ that would lead US to impose 'some cost ‘ on North Korea. [Tough UNSC resolution was later passed after a short flight by Taepodong-2 missile.] Hadley, who briefed reporters while traveling with President Bush in Europe [to G8 summit],.. spurned a suggestion by former Defence Secretary William Perry that US launch a pre-emptive strike against the North Korean missile...US has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on missile Defence systems during the past few decades.'We have a missile Defence system... what we call a long-range missile Defence system that is basically a research, development, training, test kind of system', Hadley said. 'It does... have some limited operational capability. [P]urpose, of course, of a missile Defence system is to defend... the territory of US from attack'" . AP "U.N. Military Intercepts Missile in Test" "A Navy ship on [22 Jun] intercepted a medium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile Defence program, the military said. Missile Defence Agency said test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. USS Shiloh detected a medium- range missile after it was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, then fired a Standard Missile-3 interceptor. Interceptor shot down the target warhead after it separated from its rocket booster, more than 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 250 miles northwest of Kauai, the agency said in a statement. Test marked seventh time in eight attempts military has successfully shot down a missile target with an interceptor fired from a ship. It also was second successful attempt by a ship to shoot down a separating target. Medium- and long-range ballistic missiles typically have at least two stages, increasing the challenge for interceptors, which must distinguish between the body of the missile and the warhead... Japan agreed to jointly develop missile Defence technology with US late last year, broadening an earlier bilateral research pact".

Associated Press"Rumsfeld Cautions on Missile Shield"New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "[US] Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld sounded a note of caution about expectations that interceptors poised in underground silos [in Fort Greely, Alaska] would work in the event of a missile attack by North Korea...Ten silos house single 54-foot-long missile interceptors. If ordered by [US] president,.. one or more of the rockets would blast into the sky and race at more than 18,000 mph to launch a small 'kill vehicle’ at an enemy warhead as it soared through space. An 11th interceptor is to be installed. [Asked whether ready for use against a North Korean missile,] Rumsfeld said he would not be fully persuaded until the multibillion dollar Defence system has undergone more complete and realistic testing. [He said] some elements of the missile Defence system are yet to come on line, including some of the radars and other sensors used to track the target missile,.. but stressed that advisors... have told him they believe it will work as designed in the event of an actual missile attack. [On 31 Aug] an interceptor based at a second site [in California] is scheduled to be tested against a target missile launched into the Pacific from Alaska's Kodiak Island. That will be the first full-up test of the latest version of the interceptor and its 'kill vehicle', a device attached to the nose of the interceptor. [T]he 'kill vehicle’ is designed to use its own propulsion system and optical sensors to lock onto its target and, by ramming into it at high speed, obliterate the warhead and any payload it might carry. [This] test also will be first use of an early-warning radar... to provide the data required to put the interceptor on a proper path toward its target... A further test, now scheduled for Dec, will try for an intercept. At a news conference, Rumsfeld said that North Korea's leaders showed, by their test-launch of multiple missiles on 04 Jul 06, a determination to ‘continue to improve their capability and to threaten and attempt to blackmail other people'. He said they also are a threat to spread missile technology to terrorists. 'I think the real threat that North Korea poses in the immediate future is more one of proliferation than a danger to South Korea', he said... Rumsfeld said US intelligence about the intentions of North Korean leaders is not very good, but he said it is clear that the overall condition of the North Korean military has deteriorated" ; David S.Cloud "Rumsfeld Sees Some Progress in Missile Plan" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld said [in Fort Greely, Alaska] that while the fledging US ballistic missile Defence system was becoming more capable, he wanted to see a successful full-scale test before declaring it able to shoot down a ballistic missile...Bush administration has taken the unusual step of deploying the system which is designed to shoot down a limited number of missiles before testing is completed and before all radars and sensors necessary to track incoming missiles are in place. Rumsfeld [said] system was aimed at protecting against attacks from North Korea and Iran, which he called 'rogue states that are intent on developing long-range ballistic missiles' ... The goal this week is to see if sensors in the so-called kill vehicle can recognize an incoming warhead, not to actually hit it... But... it employed a target that in its size and speed was representative of missiles that might be fired at US. In last two flight tests, the system halted the firing sequence before the interceptor missile left its silo... Even so, after the second failed test in Feb 05, the system was taken down until Dec 06. [A]s many as 40 are supposed to be installed by next year. The other interceptor site is... in California, where two interceptors are in silos... Bush administration is also looking at locations for an interceptor site in Europe that would protect US and parts of Europe from missiles launched from Mideast. [C]ould be in place in four years if Congress provides the money... Sergei Ivanov, Defence minister of Russia, [also in Alaska] did not directly criticize US system, but called for 'transparency’ by Bush administration, a term meant to convey Russia's concern about any modifications to the system that could take its capabilities beyond stopping a small number of missiles".

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:- "Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As the annual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states faced ambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the three great challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorism being used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it was committed to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council, China's Cabinet, also said the country's Defence policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal with submarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain the separatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. It indirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China’ policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan'. Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test, uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said".

Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3 (May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fuelling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.

Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary’ describes wide variety of military activities, many of which bear little resemblance to those of today's... corporate endeavours that perform logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more". "The Bush Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility". "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate security contractors to greater or lesser degrees... Contractors are accountable to range of employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace" -NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably. Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity... requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO. "Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use... Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them". "Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next fortune to be found?".

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke"Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.N. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defence Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Keith Banting, George Hoberg & Richard Simeon edit. Degrees of Freedom: Canada and the United States in a Changing World(Montreal: McGill-Queen's Univ. Press 97):-UN/global relevance of this unique book is its picture of how two major, successful but differing states have met post-industrial challenges. These include human rights, globalization, multiculturalism, environmentalism etc. - problems progressively facing more and more governments. Conclusion: even such interdependent states can diverge.

Benjamin R.Barber Jihad vs. McWorld: How the Planet is Both Falling Apart and Coming Together and What This Means for Democracy(New York: Times Books 95):-unusual and debatable perception of some broad global trends that has generated new interest - though not necessarily credibility for its conclusion - since its publication. Argues world experiencing basic conflict between homogenizing power of post-industrial capitalism/"fundamentalist" ethnic- religious reaction. Believes both forces undermine state (presumably in terms of traditional sovereignty) and hence democracy. [Why and how is democracy so dependent upon sanctity of Westphalian nation-state?]Sources of new interest derive, of course, from growth of anti-globalization movement, however disunited it may be in both fears and formulas, and "Clash of Civilizations" thesis put forward by Samuel P. Huntington(op.cit.)and apparently illustrated -all too violently- by Osama bin Laden.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/ biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Felicity Barringer"Nations Ranked as Protectors of the Environment"New York Times 24 Jan 05:- 2005 has produced"index of environmental sustainability, which ranks nations on their success at such tasks as maintaining/improving air and water quality, maximizing biodiversity and cooperating with other countries on environmental problems...Report is based on 75 measures, including rate at which children die from respiratory diseases, fertility rates [of what?], water quality, overfishing, emission of heat-trapping gases, and export of sodium dioxide, crucial component of acid rain. Report also cited statistically significant correlation between high-ranking countries and [those] with open political systems/effective governments."Top ten out of 146 countries studied were (in their order):Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden, Iceland, Canada, Switzerland, Guyana, Argentina, Austria. US ranked 45th, behind such countries as Japan, Botswana, Bhutan, most of Western Europe. Lowest-ranking country was North Korea; others near bottom were Haiti, Taiwan, Iraq, Kuwait. Index is second produced in collaboration with World Economic Forum(Davos, Switzerland).

Barbara Beck"The Economics of Ageing: The Luxury of Longer Life"The Economist 27 Jan 96 (Survey 1-16):-longer average lifespans worldwide are raising global, and not simply national, problems in fields like economics and finance, travel and migration, medicine and health care, social and cultural change, and even moral standards.

Barbara Beck"A Survey of Women and Work: For Better, For Worse"The Economist 18 Jul 98 (1-16):-excellent economic and social examination of formal employment of women, including human-rights-related analysis of why so few found in top levels of business. Most information on OECD countries - which have best statistics and seem to lead global trend. Subjects include: history, e.g. combined impact of safe contraception and transformation of labor needs; OECD employment trends and their reasons; gender variation by job type, pay and unemployment; maternity/paternity leave, day care, shared child care and housework, career-breaks, taxation and birthrate issues. All are UN issues now; it's actively trying to improve its own employee gender balance.

Elizabeth Becker "Number of Hungry Rising, U.N. Says" New York Times 08 Dec 04:-UN agency Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) makes ominous report: for first time in almost decade, estimated number in the world going hungry has increased. Despite overall increase in global wealth, FAO states, after slow/steady decrease, chronically hungry rose to nearly 852m(18m increase since 00); 5m children are dying of hunger annually. FAO senior claimed world now producing more than enough food, so problem is access to jobs/resources/land/money to buy food. UN's International Labor Organization(ILO) reported that record 1.4b(half world's workers)earn less than $2 daily. Oxfam reported that global aid budgets now total half of level in 60. Yet UN's Millennium Development Goals, pledged by all the world's governments, set targets to halve extreme poverty/hunger by 15." At least 80% of world's chronically hungry live in rural areas and over half...subsistence farmers. Competition from world's wealthiest farmers, heavily subsidized by rich governments,...blamed in part for the inequity. Trade ministers have promised to continue working to reduce agricultural subsidies/supports at global trade talks next year [WTO].In measuring hunger [FAO] considers calorie intake/amount of food available/ inequities in access to food supplies. Thirty countries [Asia/ Africa/Latin America] cut percentage of hungry people at least 25% over last decade by reducing conflict/ focussing ...programs on rural areas/small farmers.[This is fundamentally critical, since] children under three most vulnerable to disease/death. Without proper nutrition, it is difficult for these children to ever recover/lead productive lives."

Zanny Minton Beddoes"Global Finance: Time for a Redesign?" The Economist 30 Jan 99(1-18):- excellent SURVEY: (1)identifies perceived and objective problems with generally uncontrolled, if IMF- "cushioned" ,world financial system;(2)describes often radical, mutually incompatible, and/or unfeasible reform plans; (3)offers some more modest but workable proposals. Dangers include certainty of crises if systems are not changed; IMF's "moral-hazard" role not reduced. Reform ideas range from IMF-abolition, through capital controls, to creation of global regulator, central bank, or world currency. Incompatible objectives remain: maintaining national sovereignty/ regulating financial markets/benefiting from global capital markets. Proposals: (1)rich states can improve norms of own financial markets;(2)can encourage responsible creditor behaviour;(3)institutions must innovate.

Zanny Minton Beddoes "From EMU to AMU? The Case for Regional Currencies" Foreign Affairs Vol.78/No.4 (Jul/Aug 99):- Washington economics writer for The Economist predicts that by 2030 the world will have two major currency zones, result of regional currency unions. Whole of Europe will use euro, while whole Western Hemisphere and possibly parts of Asia will use the dollar. Reason is that: "Regional currencies will prove the best route to reconciling the economic imperatives of increasing international capital mobility with the political realities of the nation-state." More specifically, many emerging economies will have to curb capital flows, so author argues by examining other options (floating exchange rates, fixed rates, currency boards)that most efficient way is currency union since it makes most credible commitment to stability, acting as "bulwark against protectionism".

Zanny Minton Beddoes"The International Financial System: Think Again"Foreign Policy No.116 (Fall 99):-Economist's Washington economics correspondent argues against, qualifies, or supports numerous widely-held views about a need for new global financial architecture: a global market for capital does not yet exist; most just moves about. Allowing free capital movement in and out of a country may stimulate economic growth, if action is not premature. Recent emerging-market crashes are worse, but not more frequent, than before. Their "contagion" not always irrational. Most crises are caused by weak banking systems, helped by lack of "due diligence" by foreign banks. Most ideas for new "global financial architecture" are ill-advised and/or politically unfeasible. Reforms should not concentrate on capital flows control; at most dissuade short-term flows. A global central bank is unrealistic and imperfect. IMF merits some criticism and "moral hazard" concerns, but bailouts are not to blame for international economic crises, and few private investors escape lightly. Major lessons have been learned.

Brian Beecham "The New Geopolitics: The Road to 2050" The Economist 31 Jul 99(1-16):-mainly Kosovo-inspired proposal: democracies(i.e. NATO)actively try to make(run?)better, more peaceful world through joint foreign policy "core of [which] would attempt to spread...democracy. Includes trying to help people squashed under another people's heel...to govern itself." To this end "should be able to construct joint military force that can be swiftly sent to distant parts." Other "great powers" may soon be China/Japan/ Russia/India. If China seems threat, any/all democratic three might want to join "Alliance for Democracy." Survey rules out "clash of civilizations" and credible alternatives to state sovereignty or eventual democracy. [My reaction: Who looks after increasing variety/number/ seriousness of other -often very closely related- problems in same world? UN mentioned only in sarcastic sentence about few wanting international body to have standing army of its own; yet that's exactly what's being proposed! More important, might not 5b others in world have some democratic(sic)views/objections regarding self-selected/-deployed global police force? Also, if major aim of force liberation of minorities, likely thousands of such groups will demand both independence/help? Won't sovereignty continue devolving simply for global survival?]

Pam Belluck "Will Longer Lives Be Different Lives? And Better Ones?" New York Times 01 Jan 00:-the biological, economic and ethical impacts of the probable major extension of human lifespans are often discussed; this addresses its social and personal impact. Since "genetic and medical steps needed to extend life [may halt] much of deterioration that comes with aging", life may include feeling like 60 at 110, attending college at 35 (five MAs [may be] needed), women bearing children in 50s, having six entirely separate careers and four marriages, physical sports at 112, vastly more life experiences (10-year holidays). With current progress on aging/terminal disease, many now born may live in 3 centuries. Parent/child may age far apart/"simultaneously". Marriage could last 80 years, or socially transform, with people raising several families. Energy- creativity-initiative "stimulated", but uneven access-adjustment must be minimized.

Phyllis Bennis & Michel Moushabeck edit. Altered States: A Reader in the New World Order(New York: Olive Branch Press 93):-uneven but generally left-inclined, strongly anti-US collection of 48 essays, divided into nine groupings: After the Gulf War [global, mostly security, issues]; North-South Economic Divide; Transformation of Nationalism: From Anti-Colonialism to Ethnic Cleansing; Soviet Union and Russia; Middle East; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Europe. More useful as source of views at that interesting time, than facts.

Samuel R.Barber"Foreign Policy for a Democratic President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3 (May/Jun 04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime, and needs/opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended) regime. Most issues discussed are of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign entities, particularly NATO, UN, international law. This note mentions those of global importance that are discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed style and its gratuitous unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims, embittered even those abroad most likely to embrace US values. New US regime" will have no more urgent task than to restore... global moral and political authority, so that when we decide to act we can persuade others to join us. Achieving this reversal will require forging a new strategic bargain with our closest allies... Democratic approach to resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improving flawed agreements rather than ripping them up" . US policy towards Israeli-Palestinian conflict must return with energy and urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/ Pakistan and Iraq," Bush administration's unilateralist approach has let our allies off the hook: it has given them an excuse to shirk these and other global responsibilities. A Democratic administration would not be so dismissive of our allies on the issues that matter to them", since exercises would be truly international, rather than exclusively US. Similar approaches are relevant to the spread of weapons of mass destruction(WAD)." A Democratic administration should use every tool at its disposal to prevent WAD threats from arising before force becomes the only option". Listed issues include Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program with Russia, and "a global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites". Other sites described are North Korea and Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add a "new bargain" helping non-nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.

C.Fred Bergsten"A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge"(57-69) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.4(Jul/Aug 08):-official summary:"Despite its growing economic clout, China continues to act like a small country with little impact on the global system at large and therefore little responsibility for it. Behavior threatens to undermine the existing international economic architecture. To avoid a major train wreck, Wshdc should seek to develop true partnership with Beijing so as to provide joint leadership of global economic system"-e.g. trade/finance/energy/climate. Bergsten: Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Essay adapted from his forthcoming, co-authored book, China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (Peterson Institute and Center for Strategic and International Studies, 08). See very current: Elizabeth C.Economy & Adam Segal "China's Olympic Nightmare: What the Games Mean for Beijing's Future"(47-56):-off.sum:"The 2008 Olympics were meant to be China's global coming-out party. But on the eve of Games, Beijing finds itself beset by internal protests and international condemnation on issues ranging from Darfur/Tibet to air pollution/food safety. If these challenges cannot be peacefully/successfully addressed, China risks losing its credibility as a global leader". Economy: C.V.Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at Council on Foreign Relations. Segal: Maurice R.Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at CFR.

Bruce D.Berkowitz "War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat" Foreign Affairs Vol.79/ No.3 (May/Jun 00):-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks (and defending your own) have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspect of world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civilian society depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing device linked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/ technology usable for computer warfare keep improving; lasers/ microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/ tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policy issues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and Defence.

Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.

Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book is often described as the greatest Defence for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in economic policy or in the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled with the pursuit of free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent into trade sanctions and restrictions. [He argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defence of Globalization" (Oxford Univ 04), offers a 300+pp broader approach.

Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.

Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia & J Alexander Thier“Defining Success in Afghanistan: What Can the United States [and NATO] Accept?”(48-60) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.4 (Jul/Aug 10):-official summary:“Since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, the West has tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with Afghanistan’s history and political culture. A range of alternative models are possible, of which the two most realistic and acceptable in terms of US security interests are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty”. Emphasized extracts:“The US will have to push for a more inclusive, flexible, and decentralized political arrangement”. “Centralized governance matches neither the real internal distribution of power in Afghanistan nor local notions of legitimacy”. Final sentence: “The perfect is probably not achievable in Afghanistan - but the acceptable can still be salvaged”. Biddle is Roger Hertog Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Thier is Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. For selected articles on Afghanistan from Foreign Affairs archives, see collection: www.foreignaffairs.com/collections/afghanistan.

Nancy Birdsall"Life Is Unfair: Inequality in the World"Foreign Policy No.111(Summer 98):- problems: ratio of average income of world's richest country to that of poorest has grown from about 9 to 1 around a century ago to at least 60 to 1 today; 80% of the world's population lives in countries generating only 20% of world income. National-income divide between well- educated elite and vulnerable unskilled is usually both evident and widening. There are many causes: history; demography; access; policies(trade, labour, services, and investment). Now technology and computers play a key role: information and skills are key assets. Hence it is essential to provide maximum of education and opportunity; states must use labour, and trade and equal access better. "The real danger is that growing inequality may become a lightning rod for populist rhetoric and self-defeating isolation".

Nancy Birdsall & Arvind Subramanian "Saving Iraq From Its Oil" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4 (Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy, since they tend to impede development of institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation". In both this and Fareed Zakaria The Future of Freedom(73-6) (op.cit.) oil/minerals criticized for "richness" .[In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to basic/ processed elements (still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it (slaves? elephant tusks? diamonds?)]. Essay is (otherwise) useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when have local oil production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.

Linda S.Bishai"Sovereignty and Minority Rights: Interrelations and Implications"Global Governance Vol.4/No.2 (Apr/Jun 98):- addresses growing global source of conflict and structural dilemma for UN. Basis: sovereignty generally treated as all-or-nothing legal concept. Shows that identifications with statehood/territory/total domestic authority -let alone with nationalism- have limited history, generating growing frustration/separatist demands from minority groups and compete with globalization. But as EU shows "nations" can have "sovereignty" in all key cultural fields while being part of larger state for other purposes. Can this not be tried globally? If arguments of interest, "article argues that new conceptions of sovereignty should be directed toward nonterritorial aspects. Four parts to...argument. First explains zero-sum nature of territorial state and problems it poses for liberal multiculturalism. Second reviews various historical types of political community and dual emergence of modern theories of sovereignty/liberalism. Third reveals historical interrelatedness of conceptions of sovereignty and minority, and problem caused for international system. Last part discusses nature of indicated reconceptualizations of sovereignty/minorities, and prospective impact they may have on international institutions".

Matthew Bishop "Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" The Economist 29 Jan 00 (1-22) :-this SURVEY claims that "globalization, accelerated by the Internet, is exposing serious flaws in the world's tax systems [even though] the taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization "might damage tax systems so badly that it could ‘lead to governments being unable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens for public services' " .Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens), plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes, while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possible reaction: global tax-harmonization agreements; more consumption/ environment taxes.

Susan Blackmore The Meme Machine(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 99):-since Darwin's Origin of Species posited human evolution by natural means without metaphysical intervention, a heated debate has ensued over whether/how Homo sapiens is unique, e.g. by possessing a soul or free will. UN is affected, e.g. regarding technology, health care and law. This well-written book builds on many theories relating to the concept of "memes". Unique to Homo sapiens, like genes they are replicators but, unlike genes which replicate(copy)physical templates of parents in offspring, memes transmit words, ideas, beliefs and tastes, mainly by imitation, i.e. spread through peoples' activities. Author contends memes produced our large brains, language ability and altruism. Among less positive influences she includes sexual mores, myths (UFO, NDE, superstition, alternative medicine, religion(sic)). Soul/free-will are out.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadership which G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world? For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens. [I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad.[Famine/conflict] create conditions for terrorism/fanaticism to take root and spread [to globe.]Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests [while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense of hopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[, and] Africa Union playing increasing role in settling conflicts. [B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth. [This] can be increased by aid [that involves greater donation/ effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progress we need...coordinated global effort[,including] concerted action to improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/ security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but their main texts/ distributions differ.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadership which G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions...increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus] other extreme/ increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainable manufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol [coming into force] is good news, but...change/ ambition required will be far more [and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government /global policy must encourage development/commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigate effects of climate change...G8 can take global lead both in making world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8[also]opportunity to agree on what most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and] engage actively with other countries' growing energy needs...to ensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seem inevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.

Sandra Blakeslee "A Decade of Discovery Yields a Shock About the Brain" New York Times 04 Jan 00:-US Congress declared 90s "Decade of the Brain" to support research. Most startling/ scientifically- upsetting discovery was that long-held assumption human brain cells are fixed at birth and cannot even be renewed, apparently false. "In fact, from birth through late adolescence, brain appears to add billions of new cells...In adulthood, process...slows down but does not stop...Mature circuits appear to be maintained by new cell growth well into old age." News demands "total revision of how scientists think human minds organized,..shed new light on mechanisms of learning, memory and aging" and creates major opportunities in neurosurgery and treatment of brain injuries and disorders. Events/trends in neuroscience surveyed; see Goode(op.cit.)for those in brain medications. Blakeslee reports another revolutionary discovery about brain in "'Rewired’ Ferrets Overturn Theories of Brain Growth" NYT 25 Apr 00:-MIT scientific team appears to have reopened question of relative contributions of genes and experience in building brain structure. It "rewired" newborn ferret brains so animals' eyes hooked up to brain regions where hearing normally develops, and found ferrets develop fully functioning visual pathways in auditory portions of brains, contradicting assumption that brains have specialized regions for different functions set at birth. It appears brains develop specialized functions based on information flowing into them and wire themselves accordingly: "experience shapes the brain." Also explains long-perceived "adjustments" to new brain needs/constraints/damage.

Alan S.Blinder"Eight Steps to a New Financial Order"Foreign Affairs Vol.78/No.5(Sep/Oct 99):- Aim: minimize frequency, intensity and contagion of financial crises and above all their impact on innocents. Channels: changes in national practice; IMF reform. Advice:(1)Don't fix your exchange rates. They crumble under speculative attack. Rates pegged to hard currency sometimes justified. (2)Borrow less in foreign currency. Especially risky, if short-term. IMF/governments should discourage. (3)Don't rush to open capital markets. Capital inflow controls (Chile) slow hot money. Supervise. (4)Follow sound macroeconomic-financial policy. Top: bank supervision/accounting standards. (5)Austerity is not always the right medicine. In a world short of aggregate demand(and little inflation or need to defend exchange rates)it may have negative effect. (6)Devote more to protecting innocent bystanders. Don't bail out foreign creditors while local poor drown. (7)Agree on orderly debt settlement procedures. Maybe collective action bond contract clauses, mandatory debt rollover. (8)Prevention is better than cure. Contingent credit lines; graduated ratings.

John R.Bolton "The Global Prosecutors: Hunting War Criminals in the Name of Utopia" Foreign Affairs Vol.78/ No.1 (Jan/Feb 99):-critical review takes issue with book views of Aryeh Neier, War Crimes: Brutality, Genocide, Terror and the Struggle for Justice(New York: Times Books 98); Martha Minow, Between Vengeance and Forgiveness: Facing History After Genocide and Mass Violence(Boston: Beacon Press 98). Bolton opposes international law, claiming no existence, lacking a constitutional framework(Fassbender(op.cit.)claims UN Charter fills that role)and lacks "political accountability, ensured through popular controls on the creation, interpretation, and enforcement of laws" (158)(by these criteria most laws do not exist). But international negotiation, ICJ, Security Council and treaty-enforcement clauses all fulfill these functions. Bolton's most extreme arguments are that "binding international law will be well on the way toward the ultimate elimination of Treaty of Westphalia-style nation states" (162)rule of Constitution over all US treaties. Both positions are debated: see Ku and Weiss, Manasian, Ratner(op.cit.)on growing but not fatal sovereignty constraints, and Noyes/ABA (op.cit.): US treaty obligations. For point-by-point rebuttal: Richard Falk "A Barbaric View" (159-60)in Letters, May/Jun 99 issue.

Christopher S.Bond & Lewis M.Simons "The Forgotten Front: Winning Hearts and Minds in Southeast Asia"(52-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6(Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US [Western?] policymakers can no longer afford to ignore Southeast Asia. Islamic militants pose a threat to stability in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. But rather than relying on military power alone to do the job, US should use trade, aid, and education to alleviate poverty in the region and win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asian Muslims". Bond is a Republican Senator from Missouri. Simons is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. They are the co-authors of The Next Front: Southeast Asia and the Road to Global Peace With Islam.

Max Boot"Pirates, Then and Now: How Piracy Was Defeated in the Past and Can Be Again"(94-107)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.4 (Jul/Aug 09):-official summary:"Piracy was rampant for centuries past - just as it is again today off the coast of East Africa. To combat present-day marauders, governments should look to the tactics used to defeat piracy in the past: a more active defense at sea and the pursuit of a political solution onshore". Emphasized extracts: "Nations such as England and France had looked on piracy as either a minor nuisance or, when directed against their enemies, a potentially useful tactic". "Oftentimes, rooting out pirates meant risking not only an international incident but also full-scale war". "The problem is twofold: a lack of legal authority and a lack of will to enforce what authority does exist". "[Q]uestion of how to try and process pirates closely related to problem of how to deal with terrorists". Boot: Jeane J.Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at Council on Foreign Relations; author of The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of [US] Power and War Made New Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History, 1500 to Today. Currently writing a history of guerrilla warfare.

Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.

Paul Bracken"The Second Nuclear Age" Foreign Policy Vol.79/No.1(Jan/Feb 00):-many authors see global power balance moving from "West" to" East" or from" Atlantic" to" Pacific" , their view usually based on economic trends. Essay (adapted from book Fire in the East)mainly stresses changing arms capacities. Essential thesis: "rise of Asian military power heralds beginning of second nuclear age...World that West created being challenged - not just in military ways but in cultural and philosophical terms as well". Key fact: Ballistic missiles, carrying conventional warheads or WMD "now within reach of as many as ten Asian nations". "Major shift in world's balance of power"; Asian missile capacity/deployment constitutes potential, not actual, threat; and diverse nations have no political, economic, cultural views/interests in common, even "anti-West".

John Brademas & Fritz Heimann "Tackling International Corruption: No Longer Taboo" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.5 (Sep/Oct 98):-two members of influential anti-corruption organization, Transparency International, report on activities underway globally to control governmental/ private corruption. Progress results from the convergence of several trends: increased openness of government processes, greater media freedom, and more independent judiciaries, plus an awareness that corruption impedes both democracy and economic development. Recent multilateral events: 1997 Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials; 1996 ICC Rules of Conduct for business; new World Bank active concern with issue(op.cit).

Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun 06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will last for decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another [major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".

Christopher Bright "Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization" Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 99):-summarizes Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton 98). Claims: "World trade has become primary driver of one of most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of foreign, invasive species hitch-hiking through global trading network aboard ships, planes and railroad cars...This 'biological pollution' is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions." Counter-policies largely ineffective, control mechanisms(UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes situation ever worse. Offers much information: animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda: control ballast release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).

Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past. Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Correspondent for New York Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.

Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the 300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines; Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison; Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos; New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.

Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2 (Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier (World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.

Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).

Lester R.Brown "Feeding Nine Billion" (115-32)in State of the World(99)(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-main points: World grain harvests grew from 400m tons in 1900 to nearly 1.9b in 1998, aided by massive irrigation(40% of food), chemical fertilizers, huge plant-breeding advances, short-stem wheat/rice, hybrid corn - such cropland assets being globally available. Yet 840m people are hungry/malnourished(19,000 children die daily from effects of malnutrition).Other two basic food-supply systems - oceanic fisheries and rangelands - appear to have reached global carrying capacity, and per capita grain production has decreased 7% since 1984. Meanwhile current 6b world population is expected to grow to 9b about 2050, during which period net global harvested area expected to be almost unchanged, and to continue dropping per capita to 0.07 hectares(1950=0.23). Mounting water scarcity has reduced irrigated area per capita by 6% since 1978, simultaneously lowering fertilizing capacity - and levelling off for lack of further benefit. Remaining route to increased food productivity - plant breeding - could raise drought-, disease-, insect-resistance and salt-tolerance, but now little gain is physiologically possible for wheat, corn and rice in terms of further raising crop yields. It all means that eradication of hunger and malnutrition now may depend heavily on demand-side initiatives: slowing population growth and using grain and water more efficiently.

Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point; Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry; Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses); 5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts; Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise; Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8. Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well (Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Protein More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain; Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy; Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy: 2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).

John Browne "Beyond Kyoto" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-substantial, sympathetic, expert arguments by BP executive that, as 1997 treaty now blocked, its vital action be updated. "Kyoto Protocol is coming unraveled. Despite nearly a decade of effort, it may not even enter into force as a binding instrument...Canada, Japan, and European Union...are not on track to meet their commitments [and US has withdrawn entirely.]...Clear-eyed realism is essential. But display...is mistaken reaction. There is scope for different and more positive view...First, it has become obvious that Kyoto was simply starting point of very long [progressing] endeavour. Second, we have improved, if still imperfect, knowledge of challenges and uncertainties climate change presents, as well as better understanding of time scales involved. Third, many countries and companies have had experience reducing emissions and have proved that such reductions can be achieved without destroying competitiveness or jobs. Fourth, science and technology have advanced on multiple fronts...Finally, public awareness of issue has grown - not just in developed world but all around the globe. [It] is becoming clear that reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is soluble problem, and that mechanisms for delivering solutions are within reach. In that spirit of cautious optimism, it is time to move beyond current Kyoto debate." Bulk of text amplifies each of five points.

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Zbigniew Brzezinski "Hegemonic Quicksand" The National Interest Winter 03/04(5-16):-long article on future instability excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership. Claims unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing similar to past "European Balkans") is region between Europe and Far East. "For next several decades, most volatile and dangerous region of world - with explosive potential to plunge world into chaos - will be crucial swathe [from approximately Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and from Russo-Kazakh border to southern Afghanistan] ...Here that America could slide into collision with world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. Two eventualities together could then put prevailing American global hegemony at risk.[C]hallenge America now confronts, dwarfs what it faced half-century ago in Western Europe [since] to promote global security will be pacification and then cooperative organization of region that contains world's greatest concentration of political injustice, social deprivation, demographic congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But region also contains most of world's oil and natural gas...In 2020 area projected to produce roughly 42m barrels of oil per day - 39% of global production total...No self-evident answers to such basic questions as how and with whom America should be engaged in helping to stabilize area, pacify it and eventually cooperatively organize it." Then notes that some states in area could be US potential key partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four are then examined in detail but ruled out for various reasons. "Ultimately US can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe. Although it will need help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither likely at this stage to become heavily engaged. Only Europe...potential capacity in political, military and economic realms to pursue jointly with US task of engaging various Eurasian peoples...US and Europe together represent array of physical and experiential assets with capacity to make decisive difference in shaping political future of Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur, however, if expected to consist of simply following US lead". Latter portion of paper discusses whether and how US and Europe can work together in improving issues of area. Specific attention made to problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, Gulf states, Caucasus and Central Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to "need to contain both proliferation of WMD and terrorist epidemic". Paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes quicksand only more dangerous."

Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

R.A.Buchanan The Power of the Machine: The Impact of Technology from 1700 to the Present (London: Penguin Books 94):-approach differs from, say, Bell, Drucker or Toffler(op.cit.)in that, in analysing accelerating transformation of society, it deals more with physical than societal changes, with new structures more than their social implications. While UN actions must reflect both trends-and resulting concerns- "most pervasive/persistent stimulus to change has been technological combination of scientific discovery and technical innovation" .For truly revolutionary example of technology being explored, see K.Eric Drexler Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday 87):-genuine feasibility of creating assembly machines smaller than living cells generated increasing attention from 1990s because of their multiple uses. For an excellent 18-years-later account of global nanotechnology activities/anticipation, see Natasha Loder "Small Wonders: A Survey of Nanotechnology" The Economist01 Jan 05(1-12):-key point "Nanotechnology will give humans greater control of matter at tiny scales. That is a good thing." Enormous, if scientifically basic, concept behind booming business initiatives is explained, and" point about nanotechnology is that it sets out deliberately to exploit strange properties found in these very small worlds." Four other essays summarized: "Apply Here: Where very small things can make big difference." "Fear and Loathing: Some of worries about nanotechnology are rational." "Downsizing: Companies both large and small hope to make big money from tiny particles." "Handle with Care: Nanotechnology promises great benefits, but safeguards will be essential." Drexler's idea" that one day all manufacturing would be done by very tiny robots" had raised terror; but now activity/research quite specific/monitored. Survey concludes" idea of 'democratising’ nanotechnology - giving ordinary people more of say in what areas of S&T should be pursued - unlikely to be helpful.[N]ext to impossible to slow down or control some areas of science in one country when world so interconnected ... Nanotechnology, like any new discovery, offers both risks and rewards...Scientists should ...work with as little hindrance as possible."

Robert Buckman Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religion or to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competing interpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "on connection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.

Hedley Bull The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(Second Edition) (Houndmills: Macmillan Press 95):-new edition of seminal work on state system surprisingly retains original 77 text. Its UN-relevant aim was to determine whether system would/should survive -and alternatives. Concluded very little change was possible or needed. Interest today derives from how much of original argument undercut by extraordinary changes of past 20 years, particularly constraints on state sovereignty by: globalization of information/manufacture/ finance; new global imperatives/power centers/vacuums; novel capacities/threats. For firm support see Hoffmann(op.cit.).

Richard W.Bulliet edit. The Columbia History of the 20th Century(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 98):-these encyclopaedia- quality essays describe transforming and accelerating trends and developments that produced "greatest one-century period of change in human history" and hence UN's challenges. Subjects covered: high vs popular culture; women's role; religion; athletics; ethnicity-racism; imperialism-decolonization; nationalism; socialism-communism; international order; war; industry- business; money-economic change; technology-invention; agriculture; communications; transportation; scientific thought; space-discovery; medicine; cities; environment; demography-population movement; Epilogue: 21st century. Highlights in relevant bibliography sections under authors' names. All help explain how UN's 21st century issues originated and evolved.

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren't repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated (300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book's conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a 'clash of civilisations' and a 'cosmic struggle'... 'War on terror' should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of 'al-Qaeda' and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of... threat... undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for 'al-Qaeda' worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, 'Islamic' or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).

Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will be inspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners... have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamic militancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty... Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".

Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/ famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden's 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised 'Muslim' identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to 'al-Qaedism' in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived 'war on terror' has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of 'the West' for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden's life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

Mayra Buvinic & Andrew R.Morrison "Living in a More Violent World" Foreign Policy No.118 (Spring 00):-valuable survey of steeply rising global rate of combat-unrelated violence, its probable causes, likely trends, economic and social costs, and possible control policies. Average global homicide rates, naturally the most complete, and derived from a 34-country sample over various regions, rose from5.82/100,000 in 1980-84 to 8.86/100,000 in 1990-94, a more than 50% increase in a decade(OECD:15%; Latin America:80%; Arab world:112%). Limited victimization (assaults/ threats)trends seem similar. Moreover rate of increase appears to be accelerating: latest rates include Latin America 23/100,000; sub-Saharan Africa 40/100,000, with Johannesburg 115/100,000. Causes include: aggressive cultures or upbringing; ineffective justice systems; high ratio in LDCs of persons 18-24(group most inclined to violence)perpetuated by reduced social inhibitions; high population density, anonymity, poverty and urban social disintegration; greater(awareness of)national/local income inequalities through globalization; media emphasis on violence or at least aggression; the increased quantity and availability of drugs and guns. Costs include: significantly lower economic growth through foregone investment, less tourism, reduced productivity, higher security/medical expenses. Policies include: prevention programs through better and focused social care/policing/education, urban regeneration, handgun and alcohol controls. Above all, local initiatives.

Barry Buzan & Gerald Segal Anticipating the Future: Twenty Millennia of Human Progress (London: Simon & Schuster 98):- both stimulating and misleading - points made in Reviews in both The Economist 14 Feb 98(12)and Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.2 (Mar/Apr 98). In spite of title, almost entire book deals with broad sweep of human past and present, in order to put 1998 and our possible futures into focus. It does it clearly/usefully, if in fairly orthodox terms. "Future" section anticipates UN system stymied, mainly by US, requiring replacement. [My criticism is that it underestimates depth and acceleration of current global change (INTRODUCTION or Bull-op.cit.).]

Daniel Byman “How to Handle Hamas: The Perils of Ignoring Gaza’s Leadership”(45-62) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.5 (Sep/Oct 10):-official summary:“Hamas is central to Israeli security and Palestinian politics, yet the international community refuses to work with it. This is a mistake. Hamas might possibly be convinced not to undermine progress on a peace deal. To accomplish this, Israel and the international community would have to exploit Hamas’ vulnerabilities with a mix of coercion and concessions - including a further easing of the siege of Gaza”. Emphasized extracts:“The siege has not weakened Hamas, which has by now crushed or outflanked its political rivals”. “Hamas has shown itself to be pragmatic in practice, although rarely in rhetoric”. No longer can Hamas simply be a resistance group, criticizing and undermining Abbas”. “Peace would push Hamas to emphasize governance more and strengthen the group’s moderates”. Final sentence: “At stake is not just the failure of the peace process but also the possibility of another war and of Israel occupying Gaza again”. Byman is a Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He is author of forthcoming book A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism.

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points: distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni- address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterable networks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distance education will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrate less work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforced by new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become more sensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). All are prime examples of proliferation, speed and impact of new global trends and prospects.

Frances Cairncross "A Survey of E-Management: Inside the Machine"The Economist 11 Nov 00 (1-40):-while aimed at business, text relevant to development, economics/finance/jobs/education, globalization, government, HR, law, S&T, many UN roles. "Change has not only become more rapid, but also more complex and more ubiquitous" (5). Behind resulting uncertainty in all forms of management lies Internet/related technologies, whose evolution/impact only just starting. It offers new communications and distribution channel, market place, information system, and tool for creating goods and services, all driven by dramatic falls in cost of handling/transmitting information. It produces "almost instant" and possibly huge productivity gains, at minimal expense for hard- and soft-ware, but demands ten times that investment in new "organizational capital". Survey analyses: internal communications; links with suppliers/sources and customers/ consumers; organizational changes; good e-management. Last needs: 1.Speed; 2.Good People; 3.Openness; 4.Collaboration Skills; 5.Discipline; 6.Good Communications; 7.Content- Management Skills; 8.Customer Focus; 9.Knowledge Management; 10.Leadership by Example.

Frances Cairncross "A Survey of Illegal Drugs: High Time" The Economist 28 Jul 01(1-16):- excellent report on global status, system and knowledge of illegal drugs. It makes strong case for their legalization, aimed mainly at current situation in US. In essence, drug industry consists of production, transport and sale of "simple agricultural extracts and chemical compounds... for astonishing prices[, which] directly reflect the ferocious efforts by the rich countries to suppress [them]". Effect is to create huge -and highly profitable- escalation from production to import to retail prices. Per kilo, farmers get $90 for opium and $610 for coca leaves. Import prices of resulting heroin and cocaine are about 10-15% of retail prices in rich countries, where heroin can sell for $290,000 and cocaine powder for $110,000 per kilo. Annual global tobacco sales total $204b; alcohol $252b; rough guesses of illegal drugs sales vary: $150b(author); $400b(UN)(3). Much material is derived from a major new study: Robert MacCoun & Peter Reuter Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times, and Places(Cambridge Univ. Press). Cairncross argues that, while not underestimating harm drug misuse can do to individuals and "moral fury drug-taking can arouse,.. outrage has turned out to be a poor basis for policy". In US, where anti-drug policy costs $35-40b a year, it has "eroded civil liberties, locked up unprecedented numbers of young blacks and Hispanics... corroded foreign policy [and] proved a dismal rerun of [Prohibition. Yet as US now] probably consume[s] more drugs per head... than most other countries[,its] experience demonstrates the awkward reality that there is little connection between the severity of a drugs policy... and prevalence of use... At the heart of the debate... lies a moral question: what duty does the state have to protect individual citizens from harming themselves?"(4/5). Here she supports John Stuart Mills' "On Liberty" :'Over himself, over his own body and mind, the individual is sovereign'. "So a first priority is to look for measures that reduce the harm drugs do, both to users and to society at large" (5). "Big Business" describes recent history and current structure of global drugs industry: where and how drugs originate, are processed, shipped, and sold and who is involved at various stages/places. In sum: "drugs industry is simple and profitable. Its simplicity makes it relatively easy to organize; its profitability makes it hard to stop. At every level, its pricing and its structure are shaped by the high level of risk from enforcement" (6). "Choose Your Poison" discusses who uses drugs and why. Most drug users live in the poor world (China, Pakistan, Colombia). Future growth will be concentrated in developing countries and former USSR. Markets with big money are in rich world - which also prefers drugs with fewest side-effects and least likely to cause addiction. Most drug users are "occasional dabblers", so a minority of users account for bulk of consumption. "Most drugs do not appear to be physically addictive" (including cannabis and amphetamines) but: "Heroin is a true addiction, with a recovery rate of 40-50%... With cocaine, the recovery rate is around 90%" (9). A third of US heroin users are dependent (80% of cigarette smokers are addicted). Idea that soft drugs lead on to hard drugs turns out to be nonsense. "The Harm Done" deals with drugs' negative effects on users and society. Abusing drugs wrecks many lives. For those dependent, pleasure -often their original motive- "consists mainly of avoiding the pain of giving up[; however, m]ost drug users ultimately stop when drugs no longer fit their lifestyle. [Also, with exception]of heroin, drugs contribute to far fewer deaths among... users than... nicotine or alcohol[, and c]onsuming a drug is rarely the only cause of death" (9)(dirty needles). Although drugs may affect brain activity (even cannabis might possibly do damage), The Lancet concludes:" It would be reasonable to judge cannabis less of a threat than tobacco or alcohol" ,while it could help treat nausea, appetite loss, pain and anxiety. Besides health problems, drugs have been linked to domestic violence, grogginess, bad driving, and much petty crime. Here government is right to intervene - but best way is not necessarily to ban drugs. "Stopping It" describes how governments try unsuccessfully to stop the flow of drugs. US Prohibition, though milder than its drug policies, foreshadowed many current problems. Most important, "the attempt to stamp out drugs has had effects more devastating than those of the drugs themselves" (10) - and on global stage. Because of vast profits, reflecting low costs/high prices, suppression of drug-growing in some regions simply shifts production/related problems, with little durable effect on supply. Even huge drug seizures do not affect prices, and essential corruption can be bought at all levels. Demand is also hard to reduce despite harsh penalties, because of popular cultures, huge numbers who want to buy, and desperation of addicts. "Collateral Damage" looks at varied indirect costs of criminalizing drugs. Among "victims": Law enforcement and legal system are at minimum distorted, with investigative and court standards lowered and at worst corrupted. Mere drug users jailed (US mandatory minimum: 5-10 years for possession of few grams of drugs) for usually harmless and (in Mill's sense) strictly personal acts. Many released dangerously scarred, drug-addicted and/or HIV-infected. Basic civil liberties and freedom from state intrusion are at minimum constrained. Education/social benefit/job impeding criminal records are branded on previously non-criminal and perhaps exemplary citizens. US rate of incarceration for drug offences (74% black) is totally at odds with the racial mix of drug users (13% black) because more blacks/Hispanics have to buy (vulnerably) on the street. Both huge US costs of drug enforcement and substantial drug taxes are unavailable for better purposes, while criminals/rogue states enjoy revenues of $80-100b a year. "Better Ways"probes various alternatives to enforcement for controlling drug use. Education is a possibility, but apparently has at best limited effect. For habitual drug users, "harm reduction" is more promising (methadone programs, needle-exchange centres, prescription heroin). Very successful Swiss program includes all three in its "heroin maintenance" clinics. These care for 1000 most problematic of 33,000 Swiss heroin addicts. Most are given anti-addictive heroin-substitute methadone, but most "chaotic" are initially given "pharmaceutical" heroin daily. They are not pushed towards abstinence since: "People can tolerate regular doses of heroin for long periods, but if they give up for a period and then start again, they run big risk of overdosing" (14). Of those who drop out of full "heroin maintenance", two-thirds move on to either methadone or abstinence. Even while still on heroin, most can get full-time jobs, end trouble with police, and hardly ever attempt suicide or contract HIV. Vast majority are also taking cocaine on first arrival (29%: daily) but after 18 months 93% take it never or only occasionally (there is no "methadone" for cocaine). Dutch "principle of expediency" aims to "separate the markets for illegal drugs to keep users of 'soft' ones away from dealers in the harder versions, and to avoid marginalising drug users" (14). While cannabis remains illegal, some "coffee shops" may sell small quantities under strict rules without prosecution. Both Swiss and Dutch governments want to legalize marijuana but restrain because UN convention prevents them from (formally) legalizing" possession of and trade in cannabis". US opinion is moving in same direction, and several states (plus Canada) already allow medical use of marijuana (73% of US supported this by 1999). "Set It Free" addresses issue of how best to decriminalize drugs if it is so decided. They would effectively be put on par with tobacco and alcohol, and both possession and trade would have to be legalised, but under systems which could reflect each drug's relative danger and with appropriate quality control. Number of users would inevitably rise. (1)Prices would certainly be lower (maybe much lower) since appropriate taxes could not be so high as to encourage smuggling and crime again. (2)Access to drugs would be easier and quality-assured. (3)Social stigma against use of drugs would diminish. (4)Might be strong commercialization with corresponding pressure to consume more. (5)Even with consumer age-limits, younger market is certain to grow. But "nobody knows quite what drives the demand for drugs"(16); it may respond most to price, to fashion, to social standards - or to local culture. Hence best to move slowly, thus building experience, and cautiously start with just marijuana and amphetamines. International cooperation is needed to "minimise drug tourism and smuggling" (UN role?). Hard drugs should be sold only through licenced outlets (pharmacies?). Above is well summarized in Editorial "The Case For Legislation" (11-12), although it makes "stronger case for principle" (John Stuart Mill) and terrible harm drug trade in doing in poor world. Finally it notes that good health and safety rules could be applied. Economist 25 Aug 01 Letters: "Legalising Drugs" (16-7):-includes number of reactions to above. Majority raise disagreement, but all are thoughtful and constructive.

Ingvar Carlsson, Shridath Ramphal et al. Our Global Neighbourhood: The Report of the Commission on Global Governance (New York: Oxford Univ. Press 95):-outstanding/realistic package of recommendations including ideas for UN reform with something for every UN group. Wisely, it was not prepared by government delegations but was collectively compiled by team of 28 top-level and independent experts including Maurice Strong. Section: New World; Values for Global Neighbourhood; Promoting Security; Managing Economic Interdependence; Reforming UN; Strengthening Rule of Law World-Wide; Call to Action. Among most feasible sets of all-or-nothing proposals. Marie-Josee Massicotte "Global Governance and the Global Political Economy: Three Texts in Search of a Synthesis" Global Governance Vol.5/No.1 (Jan-Mar 99) reviews Commission's Report as well as Richard Falk, On Humane Governance: Toward a New Global Politics(Pennsylvania: Penn Univ. Press, 95)and Ronnie D. Lipschutz, Global Civil Society and Global Environmental Governance: The Politics of Nature from Place to Planet (New York: SUNY Press, 96). She takes theoretical approach to all three to determine whether their interpretation of "global governance" meets her Marxist "progressive" viewpoint. Carlsson is not radical enough; proof of his realism!

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/FP Special Report"China Rising: How the Asian Colossus Is Changing Our World" Foreign Policy No.146(Jan/Feb 05):-in fall 04, Carnegie "convened some of world's leading thinkers on China to take stock of political/economic consequences of country's rapid ascent [www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ChinaProgram]. FP asked seven of these experts to weigh in on implications of Middle Kingdom's return to greatness". Jonathan D.Spence"The Once And Future China":-investigates: What of China's past could be a harbinger for its future? Concludes "These are the memories and the territorial histories [including Taiwan] that China has to juggle as it embarks on its myriad new challenges and opportunities". Zbigniew Brzezinski & John J.Mearsheimer engage in Debate on"Clash of the Titans":-Is China more interested in money than missiles? Will US seek to contain China as it once contained Soviet Union? ZB and JM go head-to-head on whether these two great powers are destined to fight it out. Titles of thoughtful sequence: ZB: Make Money, Not War. JM: Better to Be Godzilla than Bambi; i.e. powerful China is likely to try to push US out of Asia. ZB: Nukes Change Everything. JM: Showing the US the Door. ZB: US's Staying Power. JM: It's Not a Pretty Picture. Martin Wolf"Why Is China Growing so Slowly? :-For all its success, China is still not living up to its potential."Do not think China's rapid growth is either extraordinary or a flash in the pan. It is neither. Social and political obstacles to China's rapid growth are considerable. But the opportunity remains enormous. China's economic boom could well be in its middle, not its end." Ashley J.Tellis"A Grand Chessboard" :-Beijing seeks to reassure the world that it is gentle giant; it knows that US is casting a wary eye in its direction."Strategy of emphasizing peaceful ascendancy in word and deed will likely satisfy Chinese interests until it becomes a true rival of US." Homi Kharas"Lifting All Boats":-Why China's great leap is good for the world's poor. China has become the center of a virtuous regional trade cycle."For the developing world, it's something to emulate, not fear." Minx Pei "Dangerous Denials":-China's economy is blinding the world to its political risks. "The only thing certain about China's... risks is that they are on the rise." The Economist"China: No Sign of a Landing"29 Jan 05(39-40):-supports FP views by emphasizing that "China... continues to grow at breakneck speed". National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had declared that economy grew by 9.5% in 2004,"its fastest clip in eight years", and probably an accurate or low figure for a change. NBS in fact "put a brave face on the figure, attributing quickened pace of growth... to stronger than expected performances in agriculture and services - the parts of economy China still wants to boost... Encouragingly, government's cooling measures... do not appear to have affected consumer spending. Growth of retail sales of consumer goods remained strong during the year...This offers some hope investment can be curbed without a sharp slowdown... First results from the census are due in August, and complete data by the middle of next year. Whatever they reveal, it is unlikely to be that China has been wildly overstating its GDP growth figures". Jim Yardley "Fearing Future, China Starts to Give Girls Their Due"New York Times 31 Jan 05:-reports on an important cultural concern. "Government credits [so-called one-child] policy for sharply slowing China's population growth [300m less], but critics say it is a major reason many families now use prenatal scans and selective abortions to make certain their child is a boy. [Hence] reversing birth imbalance between boys and girls cannot be postponed... Nationwide ratio has reached 119 boys for every 100 girls. [I]n a few decades China could have up to 40m bachelors unable to find mates. [Reason:] most Chinese parents, particularly in rural areas, prefer sons. [A]ll parents, worried about their old age, know Chinese tradition holds that a son must care for his parents. A daughter, on the other hand, marries into husband's family. In countryside, where no real social safety net, a son is considered equivalent of pension. [Recently,] fiscal incentives [are] intended to give monetary value to girls and, by doing so, reduce incentive to abort them. Even so, limited scope of program has reduced its impact. [Also,] attitudes hard to change in male-dominated China. Joseph Kahn "China to Cut Taxes on Farmers and Raise Their Subsidies"NYT 03 Feb 05:-"Chinese officials are promising to reduce taxes on peasants and increase farm subsidies to improve the lot of 800m rural residents left behind in the fast-growing economy. Measures... are intended to slow the surging wealth gap between urban/rural residents, major source of social discontent and perhaps the greatest challenge for governing Communist Party... Last year average urban income 3.2 times as much as average rural income, one of the biggest urban-rural divides in the world. [G]overnment has injected hundreds of billions of dollars into developing urban coastal areas while maintaining tight controls over farmland and peasants to ensure steady supplies of grain and surplus labor. [O]ne potential key lies in creating a market for farmland that resembles the one for urban land".

E.H.Carr The Twenty Years' Crisis 1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations (Second Edition)(London: Macmillan & Co. 56):-this famous 1939 book's relationship to UN results from negative influence on Western/League of Nations hope to create a peaceful world through law, e.g. by declaring war illegal. By emphasizing unpalatable "Realist" facts of the interwar period, and above all key role of state power, Carr helped kill misconceptions and illusions that had weakened League and/or encouraged idealistic, and often impracticable, diplomacy. He thus helped ensure that UN Charter acknowledged realities of power (if not Realism). See Ku op.cit..

Edward Carr "The Sea: A Second Fall" The Economist 23 May 98(1-18):-broad if necessarily concise Survey of all major trends and problems relating to the oceans - today and anticipated. Among varied subjects covered are: increases in its human exploitation and our dependency; end of "unlimited" utilization, and last great hunting-gathering culture; need for same sort of global and state controls as exist for land use; vast areas of unknown living and mineral resources; pollution(man-made and natural), algal blooms, coast and reef destruction; sea life and its nutrients; (over)fishing: new expansion areas and controls (world's fishing fleet is 53% superfluous); ocean trends and currents (El Nino, global warming); shipping (see Griffiths et al. - op.cit); new lessons to be learned.

Edward Carr"The Koreas: Yesterday's War, Tomorrow's Peace" The Economist 10 Jul 99(1-16):- millennium ended with probably greatest single threat to global peace and security being danger of conflict between Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Republic of Korea (South Korea). While Survey concentrates on economic structures and prospects, it shows danger is serious in every dimension: military, geographic, strategic, diplomatic, political, ideological, developmental, historic, educational... However, Carr argues, North "is inherently unstable. Economy is collapsing and needs radical reform. There is despondency and latent unrest. Corruption is rife. [M]ilitary... is far larger... than the country can afford" (14). Hence it must transform somehow. Yet while South is 12 times richer per capita, it could not absorb a ruin; so it is optimum that they come together gradually. By 15 Apr 00, so much of global interest was happening in Korea that Economist ran a major essay as update: "The Two Koreas: Mr. Kim, Meet Mr. Kim" (21-4). In spite of agreement by North to hold an unprecedented bilateral summit, essay's tone seems even more cautious. Korean problems also produced two excellent New York Times articles. Howard W.French "North Korea Shyly Courts Capitalism" 30 Apr 00:-claims that there has recently been a major change in North's economic policy. It accepts major high-tech investment, mainly from South Korea and China, and is starting to look like its big neighbour with complexes of efficient, private assembly plants coexisting with ancient, moribund state heavy industry. Calvin Sims "Behind Korea Meeting, a Million Troops in a Standoff" 04 May 00:- reports on ever-tense "demilitarized zone" dividing well over 1m troops on constant alert and equipped with advanced military hardware. Not only are small but deadly clashes normal, but North has just deployed many long-range multiple-rocket launchers and self-propelled guns near zone, and is now believed to possess thousands of tons of chemical and biological weapons - besides its infamous missiles. All this in spite of new North-South contacts and "improved" relations.

Geoffrey Carr"The Alchemists: A Survey of the Pharmaceutical Industry"The Economist 21 Feb 98(1-18):-Survey claims scientific/technological revolution is sweeping this industry. It describes new technologies being developed and used, examines huge present/probable future changes in industry's structure, and asks what this could mean for future health care. Anticipates: (1)increase in range of diseases treatable with drugs; (2)increase in drug precision and effectiveness; (3)increase in ability to anticipate disease. Each trend is accelerated by new genetic insights and will have major global impact. But terrible rich-poor economic issue of drug patents/costs is not probed.

Iain Carson "Meet the Global Factory: A Survey of Manufacturing" The Economist 20 Jun 98:-two facts pressed re current global transformation of manufacturing. It is similar in scale and importance to agriculture's plunge as % of GDP and employment (44% of US labor in 1900; 3% today); in 1970-95 its % of OECD employment fell 28 to 17; 1960-95 its % of GDP 30 to 20. Now replaced by services, themselves a key element in manufacturing, where OECD has big lead. Manufacturing is meanwhile becoming a lean and efficient process from beginning to end. Globally integrated, dispersed, mobile to reflect comparative advantage/customer tastes, it acts as engine of globalization.

Iain Carson"A Survey of Air Travel: The Sky's the Limit" The Economist 10 Mar 01(1-23):- describing civil aviation's recent business history and likely trends, also offers considerable key up-to-date information regarding global role and critical future of a huge, world-shrinking industry. Current situation is strangely mixed: airline profits are substantial yet consumers pay 70% less per passenger mile than 20 years ago; revenue per seat declining by 2% a year, yet customer dissatisfaction has reached new peaks (demand exceeds infrastructure)! In 2000, passenger journeys by air exceeded 1.6b (9m 1945); 40%of world- manufactured exports by value travelled by air. Omni-route air networks demand created global airline "alliances" that may soon consolidate into three or four. Meanwhile Internet can identify optimal routes, let consumers "shop around" to keep ticket prices competitive, and eliminate all "paper" forms; computers offer a satellite-based system of air traffic control, doubling its capacity.

Ashton Carter, John Deutch & Philip Zelikow "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6 (Nov/Dec 98):-distillation of Universities Study Group on Catastrophic Terrorism report published by Stanford University. Version will also appear as chapter in forthcoming Preventive Defense: An American Security Strategy for the 21st Century by Ashton Carter & William Perry. All (distinguished) members of Study Group are listed in footnote. Conclusions: terrorism using weapons of mass destruction has moved "from far-fetched horror to a contingency that could happen next month"; particularly with biological weapons, "technology is more accessible, and society is more vulnerable"; elaborate "networks have developed among organized criminals, drug traffickers, arms dealers, money launderers, [thus] creating infrastructure for [such] terrorism around world". While recommendations directed mainly at urgent US action, all fall into universal categories: intelligence/warning; prevention/ deterrence; management of crises/consequences. All needs international/global cooperation.

Ashton B.Carter"How To Counter WMD"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.5(Sep/Oct 04):-ex-US Assistant Secretary of Defense (under Clinton) and currently Co-director, Harvard Preventive Defense Project, writes just when: most are concerned that US attacked Iraq by mis-claiming WMD threat; US presidential election imminent. Concerned that since 11 Sep crisis, US "counter-proliferation policies have not been overhauled", and "it has made no new efforts to prevent nonstate actors such as terrorists from getting their hands on WMD". He truly decrees much reliable advice on countering the serious terrorist/WMD dangers to the entire global audience, and not to Washington only. His basic view: "WMD generally applies to nuclear, biological, chemical weapons; ballistic missiles; more recently 'dirty bombs', ordinary explosives containing some radioactive material. But this definition is too broad. Chemical weapons are not much more lethal than conventional explosives/hardly... WMD label. Similarly, long-range ballistic missiles especially destructive only if they have nuclear or biological warhead, and so should not be considered separate category. Dirty bombs cause local contamination and costly priority. Primary focus of counter-proliferation policy, therefore, should be nuclear and biological weapons... True overhaul of counter-proliferation policy would recognize that, like defense against terrorism, defense against WMD must be multilayered and comprehensive. Such reforms would aim to eliminate threat of nuclear terrorism entirely by denying fissile materials to nonstate actors and... prepare to contain scale of most likely forms of bioterrorism to minor outbreaks. It would revamp outdated arms control agreements, expand counter-proliferation programs,...improve way intelligence on WMD is collected and analysed. [W]ould favor countering WMD with non-nuclear rather than nuclear measures. And it would at last develop coherent strategies for heading off... most pressing nuclear proliferation threats". Substantial article then amplifies all these points.

Thomas Carters "Democracy Without Illusions" Foreign Affairs Vol.76/No.1(Jan/Feb 97):-notes that recent hopes for almost universal establishment of democratic governments have been disappointed by revival in many states of authoritarian regimes or practices. Yet some retrenchment does not eliminate underlying trend of progress.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.): "We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Michael Chertoff"The Responsibility to Contain: Protecting Sovereignty Under International Law" (130-147) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"A new framework of international law that confronts modern threats is long overdue. If it is to revive the legitimacy of international law, this order must be predicated on a new principle, under which individual states assume reciprocal obligations to contain transnational threats emerging from within their borders". Emphasized extracts:"Those who challenge the relevance of consent often treat 'sovereignty' as a pejorative term or an antiquated concept". "If US withdraws from international legal institutions to protect its national interests, everyone will lose". "The most serious threats to sovereignty today do not necessarily come from the official acts of other states". "International law has no business interfering with the US domestic system of justice". "States can no longer hide behind seventeenth-century concepts of sovereignty in world of twenty-first-century dangers". Chertoff: US Secretary of Homeland Security. Views expressed are his own.

Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] the best political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints, tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - then the problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field’ between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting the poor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberal rather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles show where and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White' Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post- Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.

Walter J.Clemens Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters: (1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain? (2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders; (3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count? (4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight? (5)Power and Influence: What Wins? (6)Why Arm? Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict: How Can Foes Become Partners? (8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help? (10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity? (11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East (12)Challenges of Development: South Meets North; (13)Transitions: Can Second World Join First? (14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations; (15)Organizing for Mutual Gain: UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors; (16)International Protection of Human Rights: Sham or revolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

Walter J.Clemens Jr,"From AD 2000 to AD 2025: Six Alternative Futures"International Journal Vol.LIV/No.2(Spring 99):- interesting/balanced exercise in futurology using relatively conservative global views to create believable: (1)Unipolar Stability: benign US hegemony extends most current/surprise-free global trends. (2)Fragmented Chaos: environmental-pandemic- autarkic fears come true; global injustice provokes anger/violence; WMDs proliferate; China turns unstable; all reflecting a low level of global cooperation. (3) Hegemon Challenged: China becomes powerful bully; either intimidates or is faced down by US. (4)Bipolar Cooperation: China turns democratic/cooperative. (5)Multipolar Cooperation: Most countries turn democratic/ prosperous. (6)Global Governance Without World Government: trans-national civil society and governments share powers at many levels. Interdependence may force the last.

Harlan Cleveland, Birth of a New World: An Open Moment for International Leadership(San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers 93):-post-Cold War book by a top US diplomat and administrator who does not advocate a Pax Americana. He offers succinct description of many changes in, and dynamic characteristics of, the post-industrial world.

Charles Clover"Dreams of the Eurasian Heartland" Foreign Affairs Vol.78/No.2(Mar/Apr 99):- notes fast-growing and powerful philosophical idea used by Russian Communist Party (chair Gennadi Zyuganov: author The Geography of Victory) and radical right parties, resuscitates "geopolitics" of Halford Mackinder. Contends "earth forever divided into two naturally antagonistic spheres: land and sea. [N]atural repository for global land power Eurasian 'heartland'... territory of former Russian empire. Whoever controls heartland... forever seek to dominate Eurasian landmass and ultimately world". With development of airpower/ICBMs/ strategic downgrading of landmass, was not very credible even during Cold War, but having lost empire/self-esteem, Eurasianism attracts many Russians(Primakov?).

Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat(Ebury Press 04):-book not yet available here but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04 "The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet" (83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce; greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocrisy, ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor... As man's appetite for fish has grown, so has ability to catch them. Modern gadgets... enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before. [But] signs of growing scarcity everywhere[, and] most efforts to manage fish stocks or control overfishing failed. [Hence fishermen] moved on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited. [D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though some kinds of fish... can now be farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or... mining. [I]nternational agencies monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail. [Lots of unneeded] 'by-catch 'generally flung back into sea. Waste is appalling; cruelty equally vile. Trawlers... wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out in Clover's excellent book[:] exposes follies of fishermen/ politicians/celebrity chefs [and] anyone with access to common resource has interest in over- exploiting it... In time farming may help" [but also more careful supervision and management].

Roger A.Coate edit.,U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations(New York: Twentieth Century Fund 94):-fine essays on UN political/organizational problems and realistic proposals retain global value since issues remain relevant and/or reforms underway. Spiers proposes administrative/structural/peacemaking/financial reforms. Coate urges inter-agency/intra- government coordination of UN system. Blechman looks at new intra-state conflict/ preventive action challenges. Graham surveys IAEA proliferation/enforcement needs. Abram urges enforcement of human rights/humanitarian law. Loescher examines new scale/origins of refugees/displaced persons. Gordenker discusses WHO role/problems. Sessions/Steever explore challenges/constraints on Commission on Sustainable Development. Leonard picks UN priorities: security/ economy/ environment/ humanitarian action/human rights.

Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation’ of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards are most ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many,.. 'rainbow nation 'has slowed to a crawl[, so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantaged of communities - now building their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is looking politically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP] growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic] prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans] more money for program of social grants [mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus] 370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level". Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rights and democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".

Avner Cohen & Marvin Miller“Bringing Israel’s Bomb Out of the Basement: Has Nuclear Ambiguity Outlived Its Shelf Life?”(30-44) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.5 (Sep/Oct 10):-official summary:“For decades, Israel has maintained an ‘opaque’ nuclear posture - neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons. As pressure for Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty grows and Israel’s tensions with Iran mount, the time has come to reconsider this policy of nuclear ambiguity. Israel can loosen its policy of opacity without jeopardizing its security, and doing so would burnish its credentials as a responsible nuclear power”. Emphasized extracts:“For Israelis, nuclear opacity is one of Israel’s greatest strategic and diplomatic success stories”. “Most countries have followed Washington’s lead, accepting Israel’s opaque nuclear posture and treating Israel’s nuclear program as an exceptional case”. “Opacity undercuts the need for Israelis to be informed about issues that are literally matters of life and death”. “Israel should resist the view that military action is its only option for dealing with the perceived Iranian threat to its existence”. Final sentence: “[I]n order to deal effectively with the new regional nuclear environment and emerging global nuclear norms, Israel must reassess the wisdom of its unwavering commitment to opacity and also recognize that international support for its retaining its military edge, including its nuclear capability, rests on its retaining its moral edge”. Cohen is a Senior Fellow at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies and author of forthcoming book The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain With the Bomb. Miller is Research Associate in Science, Technology, and society Program at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He was Senior Research Scientist in MIT Nuclear Engineering Dept and has served as consultant to US State Department and Los Alamos and Oak Ridge National Labs. For annotated guide:“What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation”at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation.

Eliot A.Cohen"History and the Hyperpower"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-vast US scope, in comparison with any other state or group of states, gives it both capacities and opposition of past major empires(e.g. Rome, Britain), but its global interests/roles are unique and controversial. Author contends well worth while to compare US positions and potential with historical styles/events/problems. "Historical analogy making rounds of late is notion that US today is an empire that can and should be compared with imperial powers of past... Casual talk of Pax Americana... implies that US is following pattern of imperial dominance that holds precedents and lessons. Metaphor of empire merits neither angry rejection nor gleeful embrace. It instead deserves careful scrutiny, because imperial history contains analogies and parallels that bear critically on current US predicament."

Isobel Coleman"The Payoff From Women's Rights"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun 04):- three points strongly: women's full rights critically important not just for women alone but for entire societies; most negative women's areas of world are both curbed by old-style religion/ culture and blocked economically; US can and must do more to improve this. First point:" Over past decade, significant research has demonstrated what many have known for long time: women critical to economic development, active civil society, good governance -especially in developing countries. Focus on women often best way to reduce birth rates/child mortality; improve health/nutrition/education; stem spread of HIV/AIDS; build robust/self-sustaining community organizations; encourage grassroots democracy... Women's status advanced in many countries: gender gaps in infant mortality rates/calorie consumption/ school enrollment/literacy levels/access to health care/political participation narrowed steadily. These... benefited society at large/improving living standards/increasing social entrepreneurship/ attracting foreign direct investment." Second point: "[S]ignificant gender disparities continues to exist, and in some cases to grow, in three regions: southern Asia, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa. [C]onstraints on women living in areas [are] conservative/ patriarchal practices, often reinforced by religious values." Third point: "[Deep tensions] between religious extremists and those with more moderate/progressive views... evident in Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Afghanistan...to lesser extent Nigeria/Pakistan/ Indonesia. Resolution critical to progress.,. for those that suppress women likely to stagnate economically/ fail to develop democratic institutions/become more prone to extremism." So urges US to intensify women's rights much more.

Isobel Coleman"The Better Half: Helping Women Help the World"(126-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Nicholas D.Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn: Half the Sky: Oppression Into Opportunity for Women Worldwide (Knopf 09). Official summary:"Efforts to provide the world's women with economic and political power are more than just a worthy moral crusade: they represent perhaps the best strategy for pursuing development and stability across the globe. [The $27.95 HC 320pp. book] is an insightful and inspiring call to action". [The review is very persuasive.] Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. Her book Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East will be published by Random House this spring. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.

Isobel Coleman"The Global Glass Ceiling: Why Empowering Women Is Good for Business"(13-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.3 (May/Jun 10):-official summary:"It is now accepted wisdom that empowering women in the developing world is a catalyst for achieving a range of international development goals. It is time for multinational corporations to get on board: funding education for girls and incorporating women-owned firms into their supply chains are good for business". Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. She is author of Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East (Random House: HC$26.00). For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.

Norm Coleman "Kofi Annan Must Go" Wall Street Journal 01 Dec 04(COMMENTARY):-Senator Coleman is chairman of US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a Minnesota Republican. Senate subcommittee of which he is chairman has been investigating the UN oil-for-food program in Iraq which was intended 1996-2003 to enable Iraq to buy food and medicine in return for oil. Iraqi regime of the time is widely believed to have subverted the program on a huge scale to benefit Saddam Hussein. Hence Coleman blames Annan and calls for his resignation. Warren Hoge "US, in Public Statement, Backs Annan in His UN Post" New York Times 10 Dec 04:-reports that US Amb. John C.Danforth announced, on behalf of White House and State Department, that UN played a role in many areas of concern to US... and that Washington expected to work closely with Annan. Associated Press "Oil-For-Food Scandal May Harm UN Reforms" in NYT 10 Dec 04:- reports on several aspects of issue, including strong support of UN member states for Annan, but warns of unfortunate time clash with Annan's initiatives for critical UN reforms(see very vital "Annan" items). Economist 11 Dec 04"The United Nations: Blaming Annan"(Edit.11):- emphasises that UNSG should not receive "the campaign of vilification being mounted against him by his detractors", since any judgement would be premature. Moreover, "he is servant of his political masters. This general rule applied with a particular vengeance in the oil-for-food program. UN set up a secretariat to manage the program, but members of UNSC maintained ultimate control. Every contract was scrutinised by committee of its 15 members. It was not Annan's fault that this committee became deadlocked". AP"Powell: U.N. on Track With Iraqi Support" NYT 16 Dec 04:- both UN, as the most truly global institution, and its Secretary General Kofi Annan, have been receiving more than their chronic suspicion from recently re-elected US politicians. US's Iraq policy unfortunately generates particular focus of disagreement. Secretary of State Colin Powell gives "understated praise... for preparations UN is making to support elections in Iraq, and UNSG Annan said world body will beef up its support if need be... Annan was also speaking on proposals to revamp UN and on US relations with world body in address to private Council on Foreign Relations." Warren Hoge "Secret Meeting, Clear Mission: 'Rescue' U.N." NYT 03 Jan 05:- publicity on private gathering of senior pro-UN/UNSG Annan supporters generated some controversy, but was described by one participant as "to save Kofi and rescue UN". Item covers issues/potential/improvements. Economist 08 Jan 05 "America and the United Nations: Kofi Creamed" (30-1):- reports[, without judging truth,]elements of US-conservatives' UN criticisms: Israel(op.cit.); Cuba (op.cit.); expense of funding(op.cit.), that from some viewpoints seems bent on shackling US power/spreading socialism; perceived UNSG feud over US invasion of Iraq (op.cit.); International Criminal Court(op.cit.); $64b oil-for-food program in Iraq(op.cit.). " Meanwhile, list of complaints against UN gets longer by day. There are US grumbles about[:] UN alleged mishandling of relief for tsunami disaster[;] wrangles... going on about UN's role in Darfur[;] charges of rape/sexual abuse of children by UN peacekeepers in Congo[;] dispute over UN's unwillingness to provide help for Iraqi special tribunal set up to try... Saddam Hussein... For a time it looked as if Bush administration would give [Norm Coleman op.cit.] campaign to unseat Annan its tacit support too. But it appears to have decided to back off. Weak UNSG at head of enfeebled UN might, after all, serve Bush's interests better than tougher one...Some 130 countries, including all members of EU, had already announced their full support... Annan has been taking steps to repair relations with Washington. He has already had what UN officials describe as 'encouraging' meeting with Condoleezza Rice... He announced that Mark Malloch Brown, media savvy head of UNDP... is to take over as his chief of staff." Sharon Otterman "Q&A: The Oil-for-Food Scandal" Council on Foreign Relations 11 Jan 05:-provides at considerable length both history of survey program and much of information already available via organizations investigating its misuse by Saddam Hussein. These of course include a preliminary report by the UN Independent Inquiry Committee led by Paul A. Volcker, former US Federal Reserve Chairman. Claudio Gatti "US Ignored Warning on Iraqi Oil Smuggling, UN Says" Financial Times 13 Jan 05:-provides unexpected information on the oil-for-food scandal. "Joint investigation by FT and Il Sole 24 Ore, Italian business daily, shows that single-largest and boldest smuggling operation in oil-for-food program was conducted with knowledge of US government." FT "UN Warned To Brace For Reform As Crisis Grows" in NYT 16 Jan 05:-contains number of UN reform essentials described by Malloch Brown in interview with FT. He warned UN" that there could be worse to come, and that its management would feel consequences from investigation into allegations of corruption in 'oil-for-food' program. [He] warned that it was no longer only institution's traditional, conservative critics that were calling for a shake-up... 'It should be mainstream preoccupation of every government shareholder of UN.'[There] would be a comprehensive report in March by Annan on saving international security system, making development work, and reforming UN to make that happen." Judith Miller "Annan Planning Deep Changes in U.N. Structure, Aide Says" NYT 17 Jan 05:-also quotes Malloch Brown on necessary UN reforms and report that UNSG "trying to embark on series of changes in how organization is organized/does business... 'UN must win back trust of US public and world public opinion'. [C]hanges were likely to include deeper reshuffling of Annan's senior management team, changes in internal rules and procedures aimed at diminishing secrecy and enhancing accountability. Structural changes would also be geared toward helping [UN] respond faster and more openly to crises." Many reports by other experts on UN, and US views. Economist 02 Apr 05"The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Torturing the United Nations"(Edit.12-3); The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Kofi, Kojo and a Lot of Shredded Documents" (29-30):-Editorial argues that:"Something rotten happened. But wait for all the facts before demanding Kofi Annan's head... Neither of Volcker's [interim] reports to date makes clear case against Annan himself... In short, [there is evidence] Annan has been a weak manager - even if, which remains to be proven, his ethics are as pure as snow... But UN is not a company. Ultimate power rests with member states, not a chief executive with a licence to issue whatever orders he likes. In the case of [oil-for-food scandal,] there is especially strong argument for reserving final judgment until Volcker issues final report... [T]his program was set up and run closely by UNSC itself [and] Volcker has yet to pronounce on how much blame lies with Annan and how much with his political masters... Better to wait a few months until Volcker report is complete". Other article discusses key contents and effects of the Volcker committee's second interim report, just issued. Main points relate to possible misdeeds/profits of UNSG Kofi Annan's son Kojo, employed by Swiss firm Cotecna, and Iqbal Riza, UNSG's former chief-of-staff. Result is that Annan fails to receive the full exoneration he wanted. "[H]is reputation has been besmirched, his credibility undermined and his moral authority badly eroded". Economist 13 Aug 05"The United Nations: A Nasty Smell" (26-7):- material on this subject has been massive over the past several months, but most has not been critical of UNSG Annan or even of "crooked UN personnel". As consequence I have collected copies of all relevant oil-for-food items and mounted them in order together. If I have time, I will list all their titles/dates/publications in another new file in the RECENT DEVELOPMENTS section. Situation may now have become serious for UNSG since 13 Aug article states: "According to the investigation, which was led by Paul Volcker, a former chairman of US Federal Reserve, Benon Sevan, head of the oil-for-food program, 'corruptly benefited' from $150,000 in kickbacks from a friend's oil company. Report also alleges that a Russian in UN's procurement division, Alexander Yakovlev, solicited bribes to help an inspection contractor win a bid. Yakovlev has pleaded guilty, but Sevan has denied any wrongdoing. The oil-for-food scandal has been rumbling on pretty much since Saddam Hussein was deposed. This is first time that Volcker's commission, which was set up by [UNSG] Annan, has claimed unambiguously that UN officials have been on the take. US conservatives have seized on it as proof that UN is mismanaged". Rest of article deals with UN reforms being discussed.

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Robert Cooper, The Post-Modern State and the World Order(London: Demos 96):-thoughtful essay, praised and summarized in The Economist 20 Dec 97(41-43). Argument is built by dividing all states into three categories: those characterised by chaos (pre-modern); those acting in manner of traditional nationalism (modern); and those with less concern about borders than about mutual inspection and interference (post-modern). Last type is mostly in Europe/North America; Russia straddles all.

Robert Cottrell"A Work in Progress: A Survey of Europe"The Economist 23 Oct 99(1-18):-key trends in era of rapid globalization include: (1)increasing constraints on economic, financial, cultural autonomy of nation-states; (2)growing intrusions into traditionally absolute domestic sovereignty, under security/human rights pressures; (3)institutional means by which state of international anarchy being perceptibly contained. Since Europe has moved furthest/most deliberately in following all three, this general, non-technical survey of main challenges facing European Union and their likely outcomes, has immense global relevance. After setting scene historically, survey discusses in turn "five recent fundamental shifts in structure of post-war Europe and its international relations": (1)inversion of Franco-German balance in favour of Germany; (2)emergence of strong sense leading EU countries should have capacity for collective military action separable from NATO/US; (3)introduction of new common currency; (4) replacement of power of Eurocrats by Councils directly representing national governments; (5)planned EU enlargement.

Robert W.Cox, Review of Susan Strange, The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 96)(op.cit.)in International Journal Vol.LII/No.2 (Spring 97):-favourable report on book of great relevance to future of global society and relations. Cox sees Strange's aim less as trying to describe growing limitations on state power than as identifying what constitutes power, where and why it is shifting, and implications. [Strange lays particular emphasis on power of global finances.] For Cox's own, related, theoretical views see: Production, Power, and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of History(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 87)Theme and Part 1(1-15); Part 2(105-267).

Gwyneth Cravens Power To Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy(New York: Alfred A.Knopf 07):-valuable source at a time when nuclear power once again gaining global popularity in light of climate change threats from fossil fuel emissions. While text is 450pp long and partly technological/scientific, it appears carefully and honestly drafted, and able to be used "here-and-there" as a source. Editorial summary is itself impressive, e.g."...On the nuclear tour, Cravens converses with scientists from many disciplines, public health and counterterrorism experts, engineers, and researchers who study both the harmful and benign effects of radiation; she watches remote-controlled robotic manipulators unbolt a canister of spent uranium fuel inside a 'hot cell' bathed in eerie orange light; observes the dark haze from fossil-fuel combustion obscuring once-pristine... skies and the leaky, rusted pipes and sooty puddles in a coal-fired plant; glimpses rainbows made by salt dust in the deep subterranean corridors of a working nuclear waste repository. She refutes the major arguments against nuclear power one by one... And she demonstrates how, time and again, political fearmongering and misperceptions about risk have trumped science in the dialogue about the feasibility of nuclear energy. In the end, we see how nuclear power has been successfully and economically harnessed... around the globe to become the single largest displacer of greenhouse gases, and how its overall risks and benefits compare with those of other energy sources. [A]n eloquent, convincing argument for nuclear power as a safe energy source and an essential deterrent to global warming".

Barbara Crossette, "Rethinking Population at a Global Milestone" ;Nicholas Wade, "Now, You Can Have 5,999,999,999 Friends"; "Why Malthus Was Wrong" New York Times 19 Sep 99:-article and notes offering facts/ideas on world population. UN says pass 6 billion about 12 Oct 99; growth rate: 1.31% (about 80m)/year or 148 people/ minute; life expectancy: 65 years; current projected world total in 2050: 8.9 billion. Regarding Malthus, substantive point is that innovation has enabled food production to increase much faster than was anticipated in 1798. (While population growth cannot produce global famine, serious local food/people imbalances cause 40 million a year to die of hunger.) Article compares population problems/policies of autocratic China (1.2b) and democratic India(1b, but faster growth). China more successful improving human conditions, but many factors affect policy choice/impact.

Barbara Crossette, "U. N. Council in Rare Accord: Fight Terrorism" New York Times 20 Oct 99:- UN has long been unable to reach agreement over global action on terrorism, a critical lacuna given need to eliminate all sanctuary. "One state's terrorist is another's freedom-fighter". Now decline - or at least public denial - of state support for terrorist groups, and experience of many with insurgents they brand terrorist, appears to have broken impasse. On 19 Oct Security Council unanimously passed resolution (Russian SC President deemed it "anti-terrorist manifesto") regarding growing dangers of international terrorism. Reportedly it calls for "better cooperation and sharing of information among nations and[ agencies, and] asks governments to prevent terrorist groups from raising money to deny such groups safe haven and to be vigilant against false refugee claims made by terrorists seeking new bases".

Barbara Crossette, "Europe Stares at a Future Built by Immigrants" New York Times 02 Jan 00:-probes effects of a decreasing EU population. "To survive economically and socially, Europe may have to... change its racial and ethnic face through mass migration of labor from around [world, finding] itself debating moves toward a social structure that looks more like [North] America's". In latter, "whole idea of citizenship is that anyone from anywhere can become naturalized". In Europe, citizenship is usually "still linked to ethnic heritage, or at least to language and culture". UN experts suggest logical response to declining size is "replacement migration". To maintain population size, EU would need 35m immigrants by 2025; to maintain pensioner- worker ratio would require 135m. Surplus (skilled) Third World labor is plentiful; so is North American competition for it. Dilemma for Europe (and Japan) is that such mass immigration would at least change, and probably diversify, culture of receiving country. Economist 06 May "Europe's Immigrants: A Continent on the Move" (25-7) looks at situation from economic rather than sociological point of view. Essay sees political problems, but is more sanguine. Western Europe has been absorbing migrants since WWII. Trend now is for seasonal migration, and new source is East Europe.

Barbara Crossette, "U.N. Warns That Trafficking in Human Beings Is Growing" New York Times 25 Jun 00:-DG of UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention claims that trade in people is "fastest growing criminal market in ... world because of... number of people... involved,.. scale of profits being generated for criminal organizations - and... its multifold nature. We don't have just sexual exploitation. We don't have just economic slavery [forced labor and debt enslavement]. We have also a lot of exploitation of migrants. And we have classic slavery. If you put all this together... you get the biggest violation of human rights in [world. R]eliable estimates indicate that 200m people may now be in some way under the sway or in the hands of traffickers of various kinds." UN urges possibly giving temporary residence to would-be immigrants who assist in identifying criminals and reintroduction of anti-slavery laws. Economist 24 Jun "Drugs and Slavery in Myanmar" (48):-according to ILO, many of 1m Burmese refugees along Thai border report increasing reliance on slavery by Myanmar regime. While ceasefires have been arranged with most ethnic rebel groups, military keeps control only by "using slaves to build defences, roads and bridges. Locals are forced to clear land, act as porters for the army, and provide housing. Refugees claim that forced labourers are even made to march along [mined] roads... 800,000 or so people... thought [by ILO] to be exploited in this way". Roger Cohen, "Europe Tries to Turn a Tide of Migrants Chasing Dreams" NYT 02 Jul:-motivated by death of 58 Chinese illegal immigrants in truck container in Dover, England, this article explains how and why EU has replaced North America as the principal destination of asylum-seekers (and unnumbered illegal immigrants). In 1999 30,000 people applied for asylum in US (compared with 127,000 in 1993), while more than 365,000 sought asylum in EU. Main change has been collapse of USSR, the opening up of new land routes to Europe from Asia. Moreover "increasingly well-organized criminal groups... have emerged to coordinate smuggled passages into Europe largely closed to legal immigration" . Also: "[P]enalties are far less severe than for drugs, the up-front investment much smaller, and the evidence has legs and tends to run away" explains DG of International Organization for Migration. Finally, Europe is relatively cheap to reach illegally - from China about half the cost of transport to US. Economist 24 Jun "The Last Frontier" (63-4)adds that about 30m people are smuggled across international borders every year (up to 500,000 into EU; 300,000 into US). This trade is worth $12-30b, most world traffic being handled by about 50 specialized gangs. UK Immigration concludes: "[G]angs have infrastructures, communications and surveillance capabilities far in excess of anything that... law enforcement agencies in transit and source countries can muster, and... chances of their activities diminishing is negligible" . Elisabeth Rosenthal, "Chinese Town's Main Export: Its Young Men" NYT 26 Jun:-gives detailed firsthand description of how 80% of 20-40 year old men of one town, by working illegally in US, have made it very prosperous, although full of "widows".

David Crystal English as a Global Language(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 97):- carefully- worded description of English' present status, controversies and prospects by a renowned linguistics expert. While noting it is spoken well by about 1.5 billion people and is expanding rapidly in use/influence, author neither sees nor advocates English becoming more than essential, common second language for most of world. For more on English' history and geographical variations, see Robert McCrum, William Cran, & Robert MacNeil, The Story of English(New York: E.Sifton-Viking 86). Highly informative but lighter look at English, warts and all, is Bill Bryson, Mother Tongue: The English Language(London: Penguin 91). Economist 24 Feb 01"The English Language Predominates:...Still on the March"(50-1) reports survey of linguistic skills of EU citizens after both expanding EU and globalization have increasingly demanded and rewarded inter-cultural communication. It found that 56% claimed to be able to speak English(16% use it as their mother tongue),followed by French at 34% and German at 33%. Moreover 69% felt that "everyone should speak English" (including 66% of French; only 70% of outstandingly monolingual British!). Companion article on Germany's threat from creeping Denglisch cites German culture minister: "[G]lobalized world needs an international language. In business, science, technology, English already serves that function; to oppose its use is to deny reality". Languages generally/how learned, by Ingram or Pinker(op.cit.) also note a similar trend.

Ivo Daalder & Jan Lodal"The Logic of Zero: Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons"(80-95) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6 (Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"US nuclear policy remains stuck in the Cold War even as the threats the United States faces - nuclear terrorism chief among them - have changed. Washington must lead the way to a world without nuclear weapons, and the first step is for US to dramatically limit its own nuclear arsenal's size and declared purpose". Daalder is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Lodal is immediate past President of the Atlantic Council of the US and a former senior Defense Department and White House official in the administrations of Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Bill Clinton.

Robert A.Dahl On Democracy(New Haven: Yale Univ. Press 98):-carefully thought out and well- written introduction to a complex and now globally-relevant subject. It asks and expertly responds to: Where/How Did Democracy Develop?; What is democracy?;Why democracy?; Why Political Equality?; What Institutions?:Scale Factors, Parties, Constitutions, Electoral Systems; What Conditions Favor Democracy?; Does Market-Capitalism Favor/Harm Democracy? Last Chapter, on Future of Democracy, is most relevant to this bibliography. It concludes: 20th Century was "era of unparalleled triumph" (180)for democracy, but its changing problems in evolutionary times make its future dependent on their solution. Market-capitalism will continue, perhaps with its nature to create inequality softened. Globalizing trends will remain hard to democratize. Human rights for disadvantaged will increase. Migration will raise cultural diversity in "old" democracies. Civic education in complex societies must expand.

Richard Dawkins Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder(New York: Houghton Mifflin 98):-assumption is that people are increasingly aware of global scale of many human problems. Yet rapidly expanding knowledge of scientific facts and forces not only created such awareness, but many global problems themselves. Also science's understanding of human evolution can bring profound feelings of cosmic insignificance and purposelessness. Yet many specialists in fields draw quite different conclusions. Dawkins is one and may well be best person clarifying science for non-experts. His other famous books: Climbing Mount Improbable(New York: W.W.Norton, 96);The Selfish Gene: New Edition(Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press 92);The Blind Watchmaker(Harlow: Longman S&T 86). More than simply populariser of science, Dawkins has capacity to explain variety of complex and debated concepts in an easily understood way, with amusing examples. His clear priority and speciality is to defend Darwinism, and educate non-specialists about the latest scientific thinking on how and why evolution takes place. His 1998 book has a particular aim of demonstrating that a purely scientific view of life and universe need not be empty/ purposeless, but can be extremely uplifting. However, he offers fascinating new information in several fields. For a short (160pp) explanation of evolution and its implications, in Science Masters Series, see River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life(New York: Basic Books 95). Here Dawkins carefully addresses several sincere "Creation-" and/or "Purpose-related" critiques of modern evolution and biological theory. It ends with discussion of how "replication" transformed the Earth with hope that better understanding of our place in the universe "might have some beneficial effects upon our normally parochial little consciousnesses".

Richard Dawkins The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Life(London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson 04/Phoenix of Orion Books 05):-author's description of the 700 pages describing this planet's living history since life began: "Tale is a pilgrimage: a journey of four billion years. We, modern human beings, are the pilgrims, and we are travelling back in time to seek out our ancestors. Simultaneously every other living creature is setting off on its own journey with the same mission. Each pilgrim tells its tale along the way, and covers the processes involved in the unfolding of life on Earth". The 40+ chapters describe in turn the form(s) of life progressively in or from more distant periods, offering the best available scientific knowledge/theory, including of course many fossils, and their estimated dates. While much of the necessary vocabulary used is complex, Dawkins writes generously - and often amusingly - for non-scientist readers. Among the many favourable reviews carried in the introduction is one by John Cornwell of Sunday Times: "Beautifully written... Dawkins's account cites a stunning array of biologists past and present. No other book gives such an impression of sheer intellectual vitality and pluralism among the past century's evolutionary scientists. Virtually every page exemplifies a memorable insight into the strangeness and prodigality of nature, its culs-de-sac and its extraordinary leaps". I have read the long text, but each chapter can be read alone.

Richard Dawkins The God Delusion(New York: Houghton Mifflin 06):-as with 06 Dennett/previous Dawkins items, many books related to the controversial global roles of science vs religion are now becoming increasingly critical - and influential(?). They may ease or contribute to serious violence if the growing factual issues are not compromised in some manner. Dawkins is not only 'a preeminent scientist’ but offers an extraordinarily thorough critique of mainly Christian/Jewish theology as supported by the Bible and fundamentalism. Press outline includes:"With rigor and wit, Dawkins examines God in all his forms. [E]viscerates the major arguments for religion and demonstrates the supreme improbability of a supreme being. [S]hows how religion fuels war/ foments bigotry/abuses children, buttressing his points with historical/contemporary evidence. [M]akes compelling case: belief in God not just wrong but potentially deadly. [A]lso offers exhilarating insight into advantages of atheism to the individual and society, not least of which is clearer/ truer appreciation of the universe's wonders than any faith could ever master". Highlight(282):"Fundamentalists know they are right because they have read the truth in a holy book and they know, in advance, that nothing will budge them from their belief. [I]f evidence seems to contradict it, the evidence must be thrown out, not the book. By contrast, what I, as scientist, believe(for example, evolution)I believe...because I have studied the evidence. It really is a very different matter. Books about evolution...believed because they present overwhelming quantities of mutually buttressed evidence. In principle, any reader can check evidence. When science book wrong, somebody eventually discovers the mistake/it is corrected in subsequent books. That conspicuously doesn't happen with holy books".

Daniel C.Dennett Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon (New York: Viking 06):- very carefully drafted by professor of philosophy, Tufts University and well-known author (particularly Darwin's Dangerous Idea 95), aims of 450p volume are the questions:"Is Religion Good For You? Should It Be the Basis for Morality?". Accurate, if full, summary of the book's aim on its dust-cover:"For many people around the world - perhaps most people - there is nothing more important than religion. It has comforted them in their suffering, become an integral part of their marriages and child rearing, and encouraged group cooperation to achieve ends both magnificent and terrible. Religion plays such a powerful role in the world that we should try to understand it in all its complexities, but most adherents bristle at anyone who wants to investigate their practices and beliefs in a scientific manner. In this daring and important new book, Daniel C.Dennett seeks to uncover the origins of this remarkable family of phenomena that mean so much to so many people, and to discuss why - and how - they have commanded allegiance, become so potent, and shaped so many lives so strongly. Where does our devotion to God come from? Where was the psychological and cultural soil in which religion first took root? Is it an addiction or a genuine need that we should try to preserve at any cost? Is it the product of blind evolutionary instinct or rational choice? Do those who believe in God have good reasons for doing so? Are people right to say that the best way to live a good life is through religion? In a spirited argument that ranges widely through biology, history, and psychology, Dennett explores how religion evolved from folk beliefs and how these early 'wild’ strains of religion were then carefully and consciously domesticated. As the motives of religion’s stewards entered this process, such features as secrecy and systematic invulnerability to disproof emerged. Dennett contends that this protective veneer of mystery needs to be removed so that religions can be better understood, and - most important - he argues that the widespread assumption that they are the necessary foundation of morality can no longer be supported. Breaking the Spell is not an antireligious screed but rather an eye-opening exploration of the role that religious belief plays in our lives, our interactions, and our country. With the conflict between science and 'intelligent design ‘becoming ever more impassioned, Dennett has written a calmly reasoned and timely book that will be read and debated by believers and nonbelievers alike".

Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/ spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaeda differs radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, and emphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as a response to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the ‘metaphysical evil’ emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty’ incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a global landscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

David B.Dewitt, David G.Haglund & John J.Kirton edit. Building a New Global Order: Emerging Trends in International Security (Toronto: Oxford Univ Press 93):-varied group of essays analysing security impact of post-Cold War realities and trends on power relations, on international issues(military, economic, cultural, environmental, demographic)and on various "institutions" particularly UN, but also on NATO, G-7, treaties, etc.

Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1) "[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since] food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.

Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well