Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.

James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule...Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous...Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign AffairsVol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN USG for Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Afghanistan and Iraq. Providesanalysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three draw"attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction, authors belie inherent complexities of task...Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/maintained. Yet none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations."Essay is worth reading - as a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.

John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/religiousbodies/groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning" .

Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.

Mark Almond, Europe's Backyard War: The War in the Balkans(London: Heinemann 94):-combination of background information on post-Yugoslav conflicts and military/political conduct to publication date. Highly critical of diplomatic actions of virtually all involved, including most Yugoslav groups, UN and European bodies. Gives prescient warning of ominous precedent set by failure in Balkans.

Scott Anderson "The Curse Of Blood and Vengeance" New York Times 26 Dec 99:-recounts personal study of tradition of village violence in northern Albania. Most valuable, however, is 20-year Balkan veteran's main aim: to test his view of origin of recent terrible ethnic blood-letting. Like most careful observers,denies "Balkans singularly riven by centuries-old ethnic and religious hatreds." Longer-term history, traditional inter-habitation ethnic groups, high levels of intermarriage in cosmopolitan cities, disprove this. Believes tendency to violence reflects continuation of urban-rural "gulf of experience...awful chasm...Typical Balkan village...has always been hard and pitiless place, where change and outside influence deeply mistrusted[and society follows]medieval code of honor and loyalty" . Vividly describes Balkan village codes/violent means of enforcement, filled with "murderous cycle(s) of vengeance" . Ethnic cleansing ordered(Milosevic/Tudjman)and carried out notably by men from villages and small towns.

Kofi A.Annan "Peacekeeping, Military Intervention, and National Sovereignty in Internal Armed Conflict" in Jonathan Moore edit. Hard Choices: Moral Dilemmas in Humanitarian Intervention(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98)(for book see Moore op.cit.):-UNSG notes how UN operations forced to change radically since end of Cold War. One change been UN involvement in internal armed conflicts. "Often do not lend themselves to traditional peacekeeping treatment," requiring difficult coordinated political, military, andhumanitarian response. Meanwhile "understanding of sovereignty undergoing significant transformation" : "matter of responsibility, not just power." "[M]ust not be allowed to obstruct effective action to address problems that transcend borders or to secure human dignity." Author then provides illustrations, drawing mainly on UN role in Bosnia.

Kofi A. Annan, "Two Concerns of Sovereignty: International Intervention in Humanitarian Crises" The Economist18 Sep 99(49-50):-UNSG gives his views on basic issues. Inaction in Rwanda and interventions in Kosovo(no authority) and East Timor(too little too late)all justify criticism. We need consensus "not only... that massive and systematic violations of human rights must be checked...but also on ways of deciding what action is necessary, and when, and by whom." Critical points: "intervention" should not be understood as referring only to use of force; we need redefinition of sovereignty and broader definition of national interests that "would induce states to find greater unity in pursuit of common goals and values...today,collective interest is national interest" ;if force is necessary, Council must uphold Charter; act "in defence of our common humanity" ;ceasefires do not end commitments.

Kofi A. Annan, "Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global efforts to foresee, prevent or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN activities over the year to Sep 99, and selected plans/problems(in 130 pp). Chapters address: peace and security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights; administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN obligations/reforms/savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial irresponsibility. On PEACEKEEPING AND SANCTIONS, besides preventive action(essay), Annan demands: all force use be limited to that legitimized by Charter(Kosovo); more respect for internationalnorms(34 UN civilians killed); members pay up for UN actions they themselves authorized; post-conflict peace-building; ratification of disarmament agreements; tight targeting of sanctions.

Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).

Kofi A. Annan, "Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep 99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress and challenges at turn of millennium,and suggests ways in which international community can work together to" better lives of people still left behind" .Introduction, summarizing 130-page report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources. (5)Reviewsanalysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6) controversial economicbenefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared. (7)Must be cooperative management ofglobal economic affairs through more effective governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions, civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/Security; Humanitarian Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UNManagement.

Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit disease treatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/ large-scale natural epidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New isrange/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichmentand urged to voluntary time-limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitorcompliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiationsince 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hastenefforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to givestrategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/othercomparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole;not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. The Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press, "UN Council Endorses Gun Control" New York Times 24 Sep 99:-on 24 Sep Security Council unanimously endorsed report by SG Annan on ways to reduce global stock of 500m handguns, rifles, shotguns and assault weapons. "Sweeping gun-control measures" reportedly included ban on private ownership of assault rifles presumably in wording US could accept. Nevertheless purpose of action while not binding, is "to increase pressure on world governments to impose stricter gun control measures and reduce arms trade." Significant, with 200m+ firearms owned by US citizens, that Annan stated clearly: "easyavailability of small arms has in many cases contributed to violence..." US Secretary of State apparently only spoke of tightening international/illicit arms traffic. Over 3m, mostly civilians, have been killed since 89in conflicts fought with only small arms.

Associated Press "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"New York Times 16 Nov 05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader, and terrorism is flaring upall over the region. But at US' s major Asian outposts, some serious downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its32,500-strong force in Korea over next 3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand overmajor elements of troops' mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000US troops are stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa... Ananalyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea in line with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops. Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing... Under new accord... Japan will defend itself, deal with such threats as ballistic missilesand commando attacks and invasion of its own islands. US will deploy latest missile defense radar".

Associated Press "U.S. Says Missile - Defense System Limited" New York Times 22 Jun 06:- "US said [22 Jun] missile-defense system under development has 'limited operational capability'to protect against weapons such as the long-range missile North Korea is said to be near firing. National Security AdviserStephen Hadley underscored US calls for North Korea to abandon any plans for testing the missile believed capable of reaching US soil. 'We're watching it very carefully and preparations are very far along', Hadley said... In Washington, a top Pentagon official said that a missile launch would be 'aprovocation and a dangerous action'that would lead US to impose 'some cost'on North Korea. [Tough UNSC resolution was later passed after a short flight by Taepodong-2 missile.] Hadley, who briefed reporters while traveling with President Bush in Europe[to G8 summit],.. spurned a suggestion by former Defense Secretary William Perry that US launch a pre-emptive strike against the North Korean missile...US has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on missile defense systems during the past few decades.'We have a missile defense system... what we call a long-range missile defense system that is basicallya research, development, training, test kind of system', Hadley said. 'It does... have some limited operational capability. [P]urpose, of course, of a missile defense system is to defend... the territory of US from attack'" . AP "U.S. Military Intercepts Missile in Test" "A Navy ship on [22 Jun] intercepted amedium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program, the military said. Missile Defense Agency said test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. USS Shiloh detected a medium-range missile after it was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, then fired a Standard Missile-3 interceptor. Interceptor shot down the target warhead after it separated from its rocket booster, more than 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 250 miles northwest of Kauai, the agency said in a statement. The test marked the seventh time in eight attempts the military has successfully shot down a missile target with an interceptor fired from a ship.It also was the second successful attempt by a ship to shoot down a separating target. Medium- andlong-range ballistic missiles typically have at least two stages, increasing the challenge for interceptors,which must distinguish between the body of the missile and the warhead... Japan agreed to jointly develop missile defense technology with US late last year, broadening an earlier bilateral research pact" .

Associated Press "North Korea Knows How to Get Attention" New York Times 08 Jul 06:- "North Korea is well practiced in getting some of what it wants through provocation. Bullying through a bullhorn has worked time and again for a small nation with an outsized military force and an even bigger capacity forbluster and threat. It's called coercive diplomacy. North Korean-style, it has involved antagonizing everyone on and over the horizon, foes and allies alike, and then pulling back. Sometimes just in the nick of time... That's the case now... 'When diplomacy is stalled, North escalates tension to break thedeadlock', Wonhyuk Lim, Brookings Institution fellow,.. says in analysis... Risk is that North's attention-grabbing actions may bring bombs in reprisal instead of diplomacy, as almost happened in Clinton [era].In 2003, North pulled out of a nuclear arms treaty, vowing to bring 'defeat and ruin'on US, warning of WWIII and declaring, 'Let us see who will win and who will be defeated in the fire-to-fire standoff'. This was followed by the first substantive talks between the two nations since President Bush came to office.As a propaganda gambit, the missile tests [04 Jul 06] were hardly a smashing success... North's starlong-range missile is said to have failed like a bum firecracker on its mission of defiance and military advancement. Half-dozen tests of shorter range missiles were conducted to uncertain effect, but no failures as far as known. Results, in short, spoke to North's apparent ability to wreak havoc in its region and its inability any time soon to reach US mainland with missile. For US, 'main risk seems to be that North is beginning early testing of a missile that could throw equivalent of a rock at Alaska', said AnthonyCordesman of Center for Strategic and International Studies. Yet North has massive combat forces on border with South; long-range artillery capable of reaching Japan and destroying up to 40% of Southeconomy; and huge stocks of chemical weapons as well as its rising nuclear weapons capability. [North]fields world's fifth largest army, behind China, US, Russia and India. It is considered no match in any protracted fight with South Korea's lethal modern forces, US' s unmatched power or a devastating combination of both. Still any conflict could bring horrific consequences to both sides and risk pittingChina against US [like 1950-53 Korean War?].Cordesman protests tendency to regard Kim Jong Il as areckless poseur without a purpose. 'North... has reminded everyone of just how serious a threat Northcan be, how limited most military options are, and how serious the risks of any major war would be',Cordesman said. North's declaration in 1993 that it would pull out of NPT brought peninsula close to war and isolated the country through international censure, in the process leading to breakthroughnegotiations with Washington that produced agreement to freeze North's nuclear activities in exchange for US energy assistance. North's first test of a multistage rocket in 1998, also a flop, spurred bilateraltalks. Current framework of six-nation negotiations set up after North resumed its plutonium program in 2002 and expelled international inspectors [IAEA]. That pattern of edging toward confrontation, then edging back, has persisted, always accompanied by tough words. More are being heard now" .

Associated Press "Rumsfeld Cautions on Missile Shield" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "[US] Defense Secretary Donald H.Rumsfeld sounded a note of caution about expectations that interceptors poised in underground silos [in Fort Greely, Alaska] would work in the event of a missile attack by North Korea...Ten silos house single 54-foot-long missile interceptors. If ordered by [US] president,.. one or more ofthe rockets would blast into the sky and race at more than 18,000 mph to launch a small 'kill vehicle'atan enemy warhead as it soared through space. An 11th interceptor is to be installed. [Asked whether ready for use against a North Korean missile,] Rumsfeld said he would not be fully persuaded until themultibillion dollar defense system has undergone more complete and realistic testing. [He said] some elements of the missile defense system are yet to come on line, including some of the radars and other sensors used to track the target missile,.. but stressed that advisors... have told him they believe it will work as designed in the event of an actual missile attack. [On 31 Aug] an interceptor based at a second site [in California] is scheduled to be tested against a target missile launched into the Pacific from Alaska's Kodiak Island. That will be the first full-up test of the latest version of the interceptor and its 'kill vehicle', a device attached to the nose of the interceptor. [T]he 'kill vehicle'is designed to use its own propulsion system and optical sensors to lock onto its target and, by ramming into it at high speed,obliterate the warhead and any payload it might carry. [This] test also will be first use of an early-warning radar... to provide the data required to put the interceptor on a proper path toward its target... A furthertest, now scheduled for Dec, will try for an intercept. At a news conference, Rumsfeld said that North Korea's leaders showed, by their test-launch of multiple missiles on 04 Jul 06, a determination to'continue to improve their capability and to threaten and attempt to blackmail other people'. He said theyalso are a threat to spread missile technology to terrorists. 'I think the real threat that North Korea poses in the immediate future is more one of proliferation than a danger to South Korea', he said... Rumsfeld said US intelligence about the intentions of North Korean leaders is not very good, but he said it is clearthat the overall condition of the North Korean military has deteriorated" ; David S.Cloud "Rumsfeld Sees Some Progress in Missile Plan" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said [in Fort Greely, Alaska] that while the fledging US ballistic missile defense system was becoming more capable,he wanted to see a successful full-scale test before declaring it able to shoot down a ballistic missile...Bush administration has taken the unusual step of deploying the system which is designed to shoot down a limited number of missiles before testing is completed and before all radars and sensors necessary to track incoming missiles are in place. Rumsfeld [said] system was aimed at protecting against attacks from North Korea and Iran, which he called 'rogue states that are intent on developing long-range ballistic missiles' ... The goal this week is to see if sensors in the so-called kill vehicle can recognize an incoming warhead, not to actually hit it... But... it employed a target that in its size andspeed was representative of missiles that might be fired at US. In last two flight tests, the system haltedthe firing sequence before the interceptor missile left its silo... Even so, after the second failed test in Feb 05, the system was taken down until Dec 06. [A]s many as 40 are supposed to be installed by next year. The other interceptor site is... in California, where two interceptors are in silos... Bushadministration is also looking at locations for an interceptor site in Europe that would protect US and parts of Europe from missiles launched from Mideast. [C]ould be in place in four years if Congressprovides the money... Sergei Ivanov, defense minister of Russia, [also in Alaska] did not directly criticize US system, but called for 'transparency'by Bush administration, a term meant to convey Russia's concern about any modifications to the system that could take its capabilities beyond stopping a small number of missiles" ;

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain theseparatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China'policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said".

Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3(May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.

Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary'describes wide variety of military activities, many of which bear little resemblance to those of today's... corporate endeavours that perform logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more". "The Bush Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility" . "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate security contractors to greater or lesser degrees ... Contractors are accountable to range of employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace" -NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably. Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity... requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO. "Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use... Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them". "Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next fortune to be found?".

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):-former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Sydney D. Bailey and Sam Daws, The Procedure of the U N Security Council (Third Edition)(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-clearly most complete, authoritative and readable reference book on how UNSC works(or doesn't). With Council often in news and Canada member, knowing better what going on, and why, of practical value. There are 400 pages, but all can be read through quite painlessly as sprinkled with amusing anecdotes. For reference, chapters address distinct topics: The Constitutional Framework(how and why extraordinary Charter role);The Council Meets(ever more secret huddles; what about; how methodschange);The People(S-Gs; Presidents; dreaded P5; from polite quips to slugfests);Diplomacy and Debate(how debates are won -or stalled while your side wins war);Voting (various species of votes;skullduggery with veto);Relations with Other Organs(phantom Military Staff; UNGA hordes; TrusteeshipCouncil immortality; eternal votes over ICJ judges; more skullduggery over S-Gs);Subsidiary Organs(planting acorns or pulling weeds);New Charter, New Members, New Rules, New Working Practices, or New National Policies?(UNSC reform deadlock and how to ignore it).Plus 200 pages of Appendices, on everything. To complete picture, Election of Nonpermanent Members described by Malone(op.cit.).

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Warren Bass "The Triage of Dayton" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.5(Sep/Oct 98):-highly critical account of US/UN actions and inactions relating to 95 Dayton Accords on Bosnia.(Full account of negotiations: Holbrooke op.cit.)Seems to take it as given that" Serbs"and they alone committed both aggression and ethnic cleansing, and hence required punishment, not mediation. Argued that early "lift and strike" policy by US against Serbs(regardless of UN ground forces' vulnerability as decided by UNSC)could have let US(sic) "stay true to its avowed ideals of multiethnic tolerance, liberal democracy and reversing aggression."

Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis and Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa(Oxford:James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamentingdemography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/violence).While driven by change, these African reactions show historicalinfluence of approving accumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thusnationalism, government and law are simply used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.

Brian Beedham "The New Geopolitics: The Road to 2050" The Economist 31 Jul 99(1-16):-mainly Kosovo-inspired proposal: democracies(i.e. NATO)actively try to make(run?)better, more peaceful world through joint foreign policy "core of[which]would attempt to spread...democracy. Includes trying to help peoplesquashed under another people's heel...to govern itself." To this end "should be able to construct jointmilitary force that can be swiftly sent to distant parts." Other "great powers" may soon beChina/Japan/Russia/India. If China seems threat, any/all democratic three might want to join "Alliance for Democracy." Survey rules out "clash of civilizations" and credible alternatives to state sovereignty oreventual democracy.[My reaction: Who looks after increasing variety/number/seriousness of other -oftenvery closely related- problems in same world? UN mentioned only in sarcastic sentence about few wanting international body to have standing army of its own; yet that's exactly what's being proposed! More important, might not 5b others in world have some democratic(sic)views/objections regarding self-selected/-deployed global police force? Also, if major aim of force liberation of minorities, likelythousands of such groups will demand both independence/help? Won't sovereignty continue devolving simply for global survival?]

Christopher de Bellaigue "THINK AGAIN: IRAN" Foreign Policy No.148 (May/Jun 05) (18-24):-like other FPissues, correction of nine public concepts; here: about Iranian nuclear weapons production/use or its positive response to stiff US pressure. Author first outlines widely-held views( "Under-lined Statements" ); states FIRM REACTIONS; and then provides his view of actual truth. He first provides summary: "Tehran's desire for nuclear bomb has put it in Washington's cross hairs. But neither President George W.Bush'srepeated condemnations of Iran's clerical rulers, nor the threat of military force will advance cause ofdemocracy there. When Iran reforms, it will happen because its youth - not the United States - demands it." "If Iran Gets a Nuclear Bomb, Iran Will Use It"-VERY UNLIKELY. "Iran almost certainly does not intendto brandish a nuclear bomb in an attempt to intimidate...Israel/US... Further, clerics have blessed a partial detente with their Arab neighbours and...EU.[Yet] there is plausible circumstantial evidence ...to suggestthat Iran's nuclear program is not civilian. [N]uclear ambiguity is calculated, a reaction to the vulnerability it feels. Iran probably intends to gather all the elements necessary for bomb making, so that it can gonuclear the moment that it feels an attack is imminent." "Iran Has No Use for Nuclear Power"-False."Energy needs are rising faster than [Iran's oil/gas] ability to meet them... Its capacity must nearly triple over 15 years to meet projected demand[,and the electricity cannot all come] from the oil sector. [Output] has stagnated at around 3.7mbd since late 1990s. Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally [and the natural] gas reserves are only just being tapped. It makes sense for Iran to free up its hydrocarbons for export [and] Iran contends that US may pressure foreign sellers into stopping the flow. [Hence] Iran'sdesire for a complete fuel cycle is most suspicious aspect of nuclear program"."The Iranian People Support Their Leaders' Nuclear Program"-NOT REALLY. "Iranians who vocally support...nuclearambitions...minority[;] never witnessed spontaneous discussion of nuclear program among average Iranians...Unlikely many Iranians willing to put up with economic/diplomatic isolation...if Iran insisted on enriching uranium"."Only the Threat of Force Can Dissuade Iran from Advancing with Its Nuclear Plans"-DOUBTFUL."Threat...could also...encourage Iran to leave NPT and develop a nuclear weapon ASAP...[N]ever abandons goal of achieving a nuclear fuel cycle... Iran is more flexible than it appears...[It might] revise its nuclear plans if US abandoned its [hard policies] ...Ultimately it might refuse to publicly relinquish nuclear goals, preferring instead to extend current negotiations indefinitely"."U.S. Military Action Would Embolden Dissidents to Topple the Islamic Republic"-WRONG. "Workers...keeping their heads down andmouths shut... Iranians don't want Iraq's wretched conditions... Iranians opposed to Islamic Republic lack a unifying ideology... Possible some Iranians would cheer a US invasion, but not for long". "Criticizing the Islamic Republic Helps Dissidents Inside Iran"-NO. "Bush's repeated statements of support for Iranian people do not help normal Iranians... Publicly defending beleaguered reformists simply allowed clerics to accuse reformers of being US lackeys...US criticism has perverse effect because US has no diplomatic or economic relations with Iran, and hence no leverage. EU and others [have] some modest leverage with Iran's clerical rulers". "If Iraq Becomes a Democracy, so Will Iran"-WISHFUL THINKING. "Border is about all they share...Few Iranians...question Iran's integrity within its current borders. Same is not true in Iraq...Iran set up a semi-democratic, anti-Western, Shia theocracy... Clerics today enjoy considerable prestige"."Iran Cannot Be Reformed from Within"-WRONG AGAIN. "Iran can and will be reformed from within.Demographics make that course inevitable. Some 70% of Iran's 70m citizens under age of 30, and young Iranians are more reform-minded than older groups... Young people resent existing political restrictions more than their elders, and are less religiously observant... Spread of material values and sexual freedom is palpable, as is desire for smaller families...Young people display little animus for once-hated US...[Yet]reform-minded millions lack common ideology/leadership... New generation will... spur further reform. Process would benefit from critical dialogue with US, rather than current, glowering standoff".

Phyllis Bennis and Michel Moushabeck edit., Altered States: A Reader in the New World Order(New York: Olive Branch Press 93):-uneven but generally left-inclined, strongly anti-US collection of 48 essays, divided into nine groupings: After the Gulf War[global, mostly security, issues];North-South Economic Divide;Transformation of Nationalism: From Anti-Colonialism to Ethnic Cleansing; Soviet Union and Russia;Middle East; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Europe. More useful as a source of views at that interesting time, than facts.

Samuel R. Berger "Foreign Policy for a Democratic President" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun 04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime, andneeds/opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended)regime. Most issues discussed of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign entities, particularlyNATO/UN/international law. This mentions those of global importance discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed style and its gratuitous unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims, embittered even those abroad most likely to embrace US values. New US regime "no moreurgent task than to restore...global moral and political authority, so when we decide to act we canpersuade others to join us. Achieving reversal will require forging new strategic bargain with closest allies...Democratic approach to resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improving flawed agreements rather than ripping them up" .US policy towards Israel-Palestine conflictmust return with energy/urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq," Bush administration'sunilateralist approach has let allies off hook: given them excuse to shirk these and other global responsibilities. Democratic administration would not be so dismissive of allies on issues that matter to them" since exercises truly international rather than exclusively US. Similar approaches are relevant to spread of weapons of mass destruction(WMD)." Democratic administration should use every tool at disposal to prevent WMD threats from arising before force becomes only option" . Listed issues include Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program with Russia, and "global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites" .Others sites described are North Korea and Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add "new bargain" helping non-nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.

Bruce D. Berkowitz, "War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat" Foreign AffairsVol.79/No.3(May/Jun 00) :-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks(and defending your own)have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspectof world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civiliansociety depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing devicelinked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/technology usable for computer warfarekeep improving; lasers/microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policyissues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and defense.

Richard K.Betts"The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/ Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use, much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence-commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and uncertainty about just whatsomething could be...At end of day, strongest defense against intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good sense, good character, and good mental habits of senior officials" .Not mentioned in FA, but relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers" (Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need? Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton).Something to be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right Man?" (26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism. President Bush has nominatedCongressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist 28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each responsible for different phase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong; some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human intelligence-gathering.

Nancy Birdsall "Life Is Unfair: Inequality in the World" Foreign Policy No.111(Summer 98):-ratio of average income of world's richest country to poorest grown from about 9 to 1 around century ago to at least 60 to 1 today; 80% of world's population in states generating only 20% of world income. National-income divide between well-educated elite and vulnerable/unskilled usually both evident/widening. Many causes: history; demography; access; policies(trade/ labour/services/investment).Now technology/computers play key role: information and skills are key assets. Hence essential to provide maximum of education/opportunity; states must use labour, and trade/equal access better. "The real danger...growing inequality may become lightning rod for populist rhetoric and self-defeating isolation" .

Nancy Birdsall and Arvind Subramanian "Saving Iraq From Its Oil" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy, since they tend to impede developmentof institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation" .In both this and Fareed Zakaria The Future of Freedom(73-6)(op.cit.)oil/minerals criticized for "richness" .[In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to basic/processed elements(still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it(slaves? elephant tusks? diamonds?)].Essay is (otherwise)useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when they have local oil production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.

Bruce G.Blair, Harold A.Feiveson and Frank N.vonHippel "Taking Nuclear Weapons Off Hair-Trigger Alert" Scientific American Nov 97(74-81):-on current status of US/Russian strategic nuclear forces. Many still on high alert status: 5,000+nuclear weapons ready to fire at each other within 30 minutes. Also, much Russian equipment in dangerously deteriorated condition -accidental/mistaken launches more likely.Proposes US unilaterally "de-alerts" missiles/ increasing time needed to prepare them for launch/allow verification of their status. Russian historical precedent would be: follow suit. For almost identical proposals to put missiles "in escrow" see Frye/Manning/Turner(op.cit.).

John Q. Blodgett "The Future of UN Peacekeeping" The Washington Quarterly 14(Winter 91):-bit dated for fast-changing fields, but offers many useful insights of permanent value. Also provides handy definitionsrelevant to current debates.

Davis B. Bobrow and Mark A. Boyer "International System Stability and American Decline" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.2(Spring 98):-concludes relative decline of US power "has not led to prolonged across-the-board decrease in international efforts to maintain stability of international system" . "Muted optimism" from recent trends in foreign aid, debt relief, peace-keeping. Reveals crucial roles of states like Canada and institutionalized co-operative arrangements, to success of international initiatives. Meanwhile US policy tending toward an evolving, more specialized and narrowly focused activism in world. All has direct UN relevance.

Jane Boulden "Building on the Past: Future Directions for Peace-keeping" Behind the Headlines 48(Summer 91):-excellent survey of peace-keeping principles/how might improve. Relevant to current issues; Canadian orientation.

Elise Boulding and Jan Oberg "United Nations Peace-Keeping and NGO Peace-Building: Towards Partnership" in Chadwick F. Alger edit., The Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century(New York: U N Univ. Press 98):-argues NGOs worldwide can contribute to UN peace-keepingeffectiveness by developing networks of "civilian peace teams that co-function with military/civilian peace-keepers." Also detailed proposals about integrating such teams into Department of Peace-Keeping Operations complete with appropriate organization charts.[Rather unrealistic, given political objections to NGO inclusion in UN decision-making; NGOs' proud autonomy. Urgent need for all NGOs to cooperatemore, with both others and UN/government bodies in complex emergencies. More expert "practitioners inmediation/negotiation/conflict resolution" also welcome, but case for NGO teams weak.]

Boutros Boutros-Ghali et al. "UN Peacekeeping: Challenging a New Era" Brown Journal of World AffairsVol.III/Issue1 (Winter/Spring 96):-exceptionally constructive/very informative selection of 16 essays by knowledgeable diplomats/ academics/UN Secretariat personnel on all aspects of UN's peacemaking role, i.e. peacekeeping taken broadly.

Newton R. Bowles, United Nations: Less is More? A Report on the Fifty-Third General Assembly: September-December 1998(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 99):-author is inter alia UNICEF Senior Advisor on Children/War/closely involved in UNGA/other UN meetings. Excellent report covers not only highlights of 98 UNGA but variety of related UN issues over year e.g. Security Council developments. Topics covered selectively but analytically:Overview; General Debate(tone/highlights);Globalization (dialogue/business-liaison);ODA/FDI Resources;Human Rights/development/UN casualties; Humanitarian Intervention; Security Council(evolution);Conflict Prevention(education); Peacekeeping; Disarmament(new trends);Africa(war/ poverty);Crime(ICC/Tribunals/terrorism/drugs);NGOs/Civil Society; UN Management/Funding.

Newton R. Bowles, United Nations: Hedge or Taels? A Report on the Fifty-Fourth General Assembly: September-December 1999(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 00):-valuable impressions of tone/highlights of UNGA Regular Session/related developments, particularly in Security Council. Subject titles(and main points): World in 99(better prospects than 98; praise for UNSG/UNGA President; radical UNSG speech: humanitarian law before sovereignty(text: Annex 1);no UNSC reform but more open; progress on UN human rights and development role); General Debate(main value: networking/stage-setting; main theme: massive human rights violence, armed conflict within states; major points of notable speeches);Human Security Issues(follow-up to "Agenda for Peace" particularly prevention; key: broad "international approach to poverty, human rights and social/economic development" (UNGA President Statement: Annex 2);UNSC renewed activism but no progress on membership or veto; special problems of Africa); HIV/AIDS(stress on Africa where death toll 10 times that of wars; Statement by UNAIDS Executive-Director: Annex 3); Conflict Prevention(improved early-warning/prevention strategies; seek social/economic root causes); Peacekeeping(major forcesin Kosovo, Sierra Leone, East Timor, DR Congo total well over 30,000 in 00(Operations in Annex 4);International Justice(international criminal law fairly controversial compared with civil law; Yugoslavia and Rwanda Tribunals started from scratch but improving; International Criminal Court: 30 Jun deadline will be met; current: new convention on terrorism financing, working on conventions re nuclear terrorism and comprehensive anti-terrorism; planning international conference and transnational crime convention;Disarmament(gloomy: START II stuck in Duma; CTBT refused by Congress; ABM may be weakened or ignored; Conference on Disarmament is paralysed; Special Assembly Session on Disarmament unlikely;NPT review conference also unlikely; Resolution on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space passed, but US resumed anti-missile tests; practical progress on implementing/completing agreements on Chemical and Biological weapons, Landmines, Heavy Weapons register, Small Arms Trade; Development(of LDC needs-investment, markets, debt relief, only ODA is responsibility of UN proper(and aid is declining),but UN-Bank/Fund relations closer; North-South dialogue also less confrontational; "Agenda for Development" stresses good governance/ accountability/participation/social security; UNSG WTO speech(Annex 5)highlights LDCs' need to share globalization; 01 all-issue conference on financing development will bring in all stakeholders); UN Aid(of $50b annual ODA, $5b through UN and $5b World Bank; UN stresses social concerns/human development; UNDP major effort to coordinate multilateral aid better); Business and Labour(UNSG challenged big business at Davos to "Global Compact" tocooperate with UN on human rights/labour standards/environment; positive response from ICC; ICFTUalso undertook to support);Humanitarian Activities(natural disasters cost $500b in 90s; armed conflicts cost $200b in external aid, so probably over $1 trillion overall; UN priority to avoid or mitigate natural disasters or conflicts);Human Rights(most humanitarian law written since WWII; much being added; all aspects of human (mis)behaviour come together at UN under human rights; UNSC adopted strong/comprehensive policy on protecting civilians(Annex 6); in Kosovo/East Timor, UN creating entirecriminal justice and human rights systems; UNHCHR investigating standards in 21 fields worldwide);Women's Advancement(Special UNGA Session on Women(Jun 00)will examine implementation of BeijingConference decisions; UNGA studied new report on role of women in development);Children(Tenth Anniversary of Convention on Rights of Child; UNSC resolution "strongly condemns targeting of children in situations of armed conflict" );Finance and Management(main focus again US budget arrears followed by highly-conditional part-payment; 00-01 biennium budget $2,535m, up a symbolic $3m; staff managementstill slow/cumbersome; excellent final report of 5-year "Internal Oversight" (quoted));Civil Societies(getsmore into basic issues of development-globalization; UNSG for tripartite "Global Compact" :UN-business-civil society);(Annex 7:Current Membership of UN Organs).

Paul Bracken, "The Second Nuclear Age" Foreign Policy Vol.79/No.1(Jan/Feb 00):-many authors see global power balance moving from "West" to" East" or from" Atlantic" to" Pacific" , their view usually based on economic trends. Essay (adapted from book Fire in the East)mainly stresses changing arms capacities. Essential thesis: "rise of Asian military power heralds beginning of second nuclear age...World that West createdbeing challenged - not just in military ways but in cultural and philosophical terms as well" .Key fact:Ballistic missiles, carrying conventional warheads or WMD "now within reach of as many as ten Asian nations" . "Major shift in world's balance of power" ; Asian missile capacity/deployment constitutespotential, not actual, threat; and diverse nations have no political, economic, cultural views/interests in common, even "anti-West" .

Duane Bratt "Peace Over Justice: Developing a Framework for UN Peacekeeping Operations in Internal Conflicts" Global Governance Vol.5/No.1(Jan-Mar 99):-while UN's "purpose" is to "maintain international peace/security" ,many Charter references to human rights make clear second objective to improve political/economic/social justice. Priority and resource dilemmas arise when aims equally demanding or mutually exclusive, mainly in facing internal conflicts. Argues that, besides Charter ranking, obvious precedence of saving lives and doing most urgent first, means peace must have priority. Moreover, thisreduces perception of UN "imperialism" and alien priorities as well as criticism UN forces "helping" one sideby(aiding in)delivering humanitarian assistance or seizing war criminals. Still, agonizing global "triage" may be only solution to choosing among "peace" options.

William J. Broad and David E. Sanger "As Nuclear Secrets Emerge, More Are Suspected" New York Times26 Dec 04:- extraordinary article, over six printed pages long, that contains so much fascinating material thatsummary is not feasible. Following material from item's beginning and end, however. "When experts fromUS and [UN's]International Atomic Energy Agency[IAEA]came upon blueprints for 10 kiloton atomic bomb in files of Libyan weapons program earlier this year, they found themselves caught between gravity/pettiness. Discovery gave experts new appreciation of audacity of rogue nuclear network led by A. Q. Khan, a chief architect of Pakistan's bomb. Intelligence officials had watched Dr. Khan for years andsuspected he was trafficking in machinery for enriching uranium to make fuel for warheads. But detailed design represented new level of danger, particularly since Libyans said he had thrown it in as deal-sweetener when he sold them $100 million in nuclear gear...Nearly a year after Dr. Khan's arrest, secrets of his nuclear black market continue to uncoil, revealing a vast global enterprise. But inquiry has beenhampered by discord between Bush administration and nuclear watchdog[IAEA], and by Washington'sconcern that if it pushes too hard for access to Dr. Khan, national hero in Pakistan, it could destabilize ally. As result, much of urgency has been sapped from investigation, helping keep hidden full dimensions of activities of Dr. Khan and his associates...Worried about what is still unknown, IAEA quietly setting up...Covert Nuclear Trade Analysis Unit, agency officials disclosed. It has about half dozen specialists looking for evidence of deals by Khan network or its imitators. "I would not be surprised to discover thatsome countries pocketed some centrifuges," Dr ElBaradei[IAEA]. "They may have considered it a chance of a lifetime to get some equipment and thought,'Maybe...good for rainy day.'"

Michael E.Brown, Sean M.Lynn-Jones & Steven E.Miller, edit. East Asian Security: An International Security Reader(Cambridge: MIT Press 96):-East Asia is major locus of post-Cold War arms build-up and ofpotential interstate war. Essays' consensus is that an effective regional security system or arms reduction(including PRC nuclear) are not imminent, but that same is true for revival of Japanese military. Anticipatesmore positive UN role for PRC, which is critical to disarmament progress, and for Japan.

Zbigniew Brzezinski "Hegemonic Quicksand" The National Interest Winter 03/04(5-16):-long article on future instability excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership. Claims unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing similar to past "European Balkans" )is region between Europe and Far East. "For next several decades, most volatile and dangerous region of world - with explosive potential to plunge world into chaos - will be crucial swathe[from approximately Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and fromRusso-Kazakh border to southern Afghanistan]...Here that America could slide into collision with world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. Two eventualities together could then put prevailing American global hegemony at risk.[C]hallengeAmerica now confronts, dwarfs what it faced half-century ago in Western Europe [since]to promote global security will be pacification and then cooperative organization of region that contains world's greatest concentration of political injustice, social deprivation, demographic congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But region also contains most of world's oil and natural gas...In 2020 area projected to produce roughly 42m barrels of oil per day - 39% of global production total...No self-evident answers to such basic questions as how and with whom America should be engaged in helping to stabilize area, pacifyit and eventually cooperatively organize it." Then notes that some states in area could be US potential key partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four are then examined in detail but ruled out for various reasons. "Ultimately US can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe. Although it will need help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither likely at this stage to become heavily engaged. OnlyEurope...potential capacity in political, military and economic realms to pursue jointly with US task of engaging various Eurasian peoples...US and Europe together represent array of physical and experientialassets with capacity to make decisive difference in shaping political future of Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur, however, if expected to consist of simply following US lead" .Latter portionof paper discusses whether and how US and Europe can work together in improving issues of area. Specific attention made to problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, Gulf states, Caucasus and Central Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to" need to contain both proliferation of WMD and terrorist epidemic." Paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes quicksand only more dangerous."

Robert Buckman, Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.

Barry A. Burciul, "UN Sanctions: Policy Options for Canada" Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1(Fall 98):-thorough, global effort to improve sanctions, in response to tough facts:(1)sanctions rarely achieve ends, and often cause unnecessary pain;(2)serve as relatively cheap and risk-free ways to meet pressurefor "action" ;(3)targeted sanctions often work better than comprehensive. Priorities: discourage sanctionsif more constructive, humane alternatives exist; ensure strong/targeted; always consider innocentcivilians. Ideas: wider range of threats, but sanctions high-cost, so need broad multilateral coalition plus regional/NGO support; humane sanctions more effectively gain essential support; target states/personsmust be fully understood, to avoid counterproductive action and find optimum means (travel, sports, culture ban, arms embargo, even violence); better as deterrent/preventive/threat than as coercion; "sanctions forum" studies options/support/strategic planning using pooled intelligence to judge hot spots/timelimits/temporary tariffs/lessons learned/finance levers; "humanitarian limits" must protect NGOs, determine and police exemptions; enforcement must be rapid/specific/coordinated/committed/informed, and include border surveys.

Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(Second Edition) (Houndmills: Macmillan Press 95):-new edition of seminal work on state system surprisingly retains original 77 text. ItsUN-relevant aim was to determine whether system would/should survive -and alternatives. Concluded very little change was possible or needed. Interest today derives from how much of original argumentundercut by extraordinary changes of past 20 years, particularly constraints on state sovereignty by:globalization of information/manufacture/ finance; new global imperatives/power centers/vacuums; novel capacities/threats. For firm support see Hoffmann(op.cit.).

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book's conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).

Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".

Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

Richard Butler "Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered: Repairing the Security Council" Foreign AffairsVol.78/No.5 (Sep/Oct 99):-former UNSCOM Executive Chairman(Iraq disarmament supervision)on most urgent problems facing UN Security Council. Sees as particularly dismaying last 12 months, "during which council was bypassed, defied, and abused" by misuse/threat of veto. This was granted to permanent members(P5)solely" to allow them to prevent council decision authorizing use of force against them[yet they]weighted their narrow national interests over collective responsibility." Council must address two key areas:(1)new informal rules should reduce matters subject to veto(US initiative critical);(2)P5 should not judge Council's ultimate role in enforcing arms control treaties on subjective political basis. Must also keep their NPT promises.

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). All are prime examples of proliferation, speed and impact of new global trends and prospects.

David Callahan Unwinnable Wars: American Power and Ethnic Conflict(New York: Hill & Wang 97):-while addressed to US leaders, fine analysis/recommendations apply to UN and its active members. Thesis: recent trend for intra-state ethnic violence will continue - if decrease. All states have interest in ending - ideally, preventing - such wars. UN must be empowered to play more effective role, and greater capacity for using standing forces, in managing internal conflicts. Regional bodies, UN financing, arms-trade control, cooperation with NGOs, and aid to failed states, must all be strengthened. Diplomacy/intelligence(mainly analysis)must be updated - and cooperate with UN.

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report(New York: Carnegie Corporation 97):-while containing little particularly original or radical, concentrates on making well-argued and convincing case for much more and earlier preventive diplomacy, particularly by UN. Among proposals(all op.cit.)from well-qualified and independent membership: better intelligence for/by UN; more S-G personal initiatives; better-targeted economic sanctions; "inducements" for peace; use of conditionality; preventive deployments; UN rapid reaction force; non-deployed nuclear weapons( "in escrow" );tighter verification for all arms treaties; making development more sustainable; rule of law; involvement by NGOs, religions, science, schools, business, media.

Ted Galen Carpenter edit. Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention (Washington: Cato Institute 97):-Cato aims to further "traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, and peace." Libertarian view inclines it to oppose multilateralism (it inter alia limits US global freedom of action)and all constraints on free enterprise. Topics: UN in Perspective; Peacemaker-Peacekeeper; Bureaucracy-Funding- Corruption; Social and Environmental Agenda; Economic Development Role. 18 essays clearly stress Cato views. Only five sympathetic to UN aims/activities; 10 or so reasonable, even if bit selective or broad, in criticism. Last deliberately distort, and in their narrow-minded, selfish jingoism, exhibit true "delusions of grandeur": John Bolton: " [Clinton] forgot that UN was instrument to be used to advance America's foreign policy interests, not to engage in international social work..." (51; his emphasis)! Provides rationales of many US anti-UN views.

Peter, Lord Carrington et al. Words to Deeds: Strengthening the U.N.'s Enforcement Capabilities - Final Report of the International Task Force on the Enforcement of U.N. Security Council Resolutions(New York: UNA-USA 97):- ten world figures reached constructive and expert consensus with genuine prospects of implementation. Among 29 conclusions: give priority to preventive diplomacy and strengthened enforcement machinery; UNSC primacy for enforcement to be respected and reinforced; Chapter VIIresolutions to be clear, specific, consistent, unambiguous, realistic and well-supervised, to includeoperational plans, regular consultations with states involved and world-class experts, and securely use and share all sources of relevant information; resolutions on non-military sanctions to be specific, fully costedfor all affected, monitored, given a timeframe, focused if possible, and to draw on expert advice; military operations to have very clear mandate, strategic oversight, post-conflict follow-up and be decisive; overhaul Military Staff Committee to give UNSC best advice, and to consult with others involved; since for now ad hoc coalitions more likely than standing UN or stand-by forces, develop capability inventory, a roster of earmarked units, a common doctrine, rules of engagement and training, and tighter UNSC oversight; support regional bodies with preventive measures, financial, material, and logistic help, and better inter-group coordination.

Ashton B.Carter"How To Counter WMD"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.5(Sep/Oct 04):-ex-US Assistant Secretary of Defense (under Clinton)and currently Co-director, Harvard Preventive Defense Project, writes just when:most are concerned that US attacked Iraq by mis-claiming WMD threat; US presidential election imminent. Concerned that since 11 Sep crisis, US "counterproliferation policies have not been overhauled" ,and" it has made no new efforts to prevent nonstate actors such as terrorists from getting their hands on WMD." He truly decrees much reliable advice on countering the serious terrorist/WMD dangers to the entire global audience, and not to Washington only. His basic view:" WMD generally applies to nuclear, biological, chemical weapons; ballistic missiles; more recently'dirty bombs,'ordinary explosives containing some radioactive material. But this definition is too broad. Chemical weapons are not much more lethal than conventional explosives/hardly...WMD label. Similarly, long-range ballistic missiles especially destructive only if they have nuclear or biological warhead, and so should not be considered separate category. Dirty bombs cause local contamination and costly priority. Primary focus of counterproliferation policy, therefore, should be nuclear and biological weapons...True overhaul of counterproliferation policy would recognize that, like defense against terrorism, defense against WMD must be multilayered and comprehensive. Such reforms would aim to eliminate threat of nuclear terrorism entirely by denying fissilematerials to nonstate actors and...prepare to contain scale of most likely forms of bioterrorism to minor outbreaks. It would revamp outdated arms control agreements, expand counterproliferation programs,...improve way intelligence on WMD is collected and analysed.[W]ould favor countering WMD with non-nuclear rather than nuclear measures. And it would at last develop coherent strategies for heading off...most pressing nuclear proliferation threats." Substantial article then amplifies all these points.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Michael Chertoff"The Responsibility to Contain: Protecting Sovereignty Under International Law" (130-147) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"A new framework of international law that confronts modern threats is long overdue. If it is to revive the legitimacy of international law, this order must be predicated on a new principle, under which individual states assume reciprocal obligations to contain transnational threats emerging from within their borders". Emphasized extracts:"Those who challenge the relevance of consent often treat 'sovereignty' as a pejorative term or an antiquated concept". "If US withdraws from international legal institutions to protect its national interests, everyone will lose". "The most serious threats to sovereignty today do not necessarily come from the official acts of other states". "International law has no business interfering with the US domestic system of justice". "States can no longer hide behind seventeenth-century concepts of sovereignty in world of twenty-first-century dangers". Chertoff: US Secretary of Homeland Security. Views expressed are his own.

Jarat Chopra edit."Special Issue on Peace-Maintenance Operations"Global Governance Vol.4/ No.1 (Jan/Mar 98):- since Cold War end, UN has undertaken many peace-related operations of new complexity and scale(often called second-generation). Several (Bosnia/Rwanda/ Somalia) deficient for multiple reasons(mandate/management/resources). Papers analyse peace- maintenance system where UN exercises(some)political authority to harmonize diplomatic/ humanitarian/military/other civil aspects of operations if local systems fail. Authority-Knight; Administration-Morphet; Humanitarianism-Donini; Law-Plunkett; Military-Cousens; Accepting Authority-Adibe.

Jarat Chopra, "United Nations Peace-Maintenance" (312-40)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work (Westport: Praeger 98):-more uniform/all-embracing case for idea of flexible UN multi-functional governance role than made in Global Governance(Jan/Mar 98)(Ibid.).Hedges "failed states" / "trusteeships" as politically sensitive terms, although many analysts suspect these may be toughest UN "peace/order/good government" challenges for 21st century, particularly in Africa. Surveys history of all UN "peace" operations, and concludes its greatest current problems weak orchestration of complex emergencies, and inclination to act as mediator when creation of order is first priority, followed by nurturing of stable democratic society. Kosovo(which post-dates writing)would seem more what Chopra has in mind, though with full UN political authority.

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s),(un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

Walter J.Clemens Jr Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner- Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham orRevolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

Harlan Cleveland, Birth of a New World: An Open Moment for International Leadership(San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers 93):-post-Cold War book by a top US diplomat/administrator who does not advocate a Pax Americana. Offers succinct description of many changes in, and dynamic characteristics of, post-industrial world.

David S.Cloud"Navy to Expand Fleet With New Enemies in Mind"New York Times 03 Dec 05:-"[US] Navy wants to increase its fleet.., reversing years of decline in naval shipbuilding and adding dozens of warships designed to defeat emerging adversaries, [US] officials say... While increasing fleet size is popular [in] Congress, plan faces various obstacles, including questions about whether affordable...andwhether mix of vessels is suitable to deal with emerging threats, like China's expanding navy... [F]leet reached its cold war peak... in 1987 and... steadily shrinking since then... 'Navy appears... grappling withneed to balance funding for supporting its role in the global war on terrorism against those for meetinga potential challenge from modernized Chinese maritime military forces' , said a naval analyst. [P]lan calls for building 55 small, fast vessels called littoral combat ships, which are being designed to allow Navy to operate in shallow coastal areas where mines and terrorist bombings are a growing threat. Costing less than $300m, littoral combat ship is relatively inexpensive... Choices have led some analysts tosuggest Navy is de-emphasizing threat from China, at least in early stages of the shipbuilding plan.Beijing's investment in submarines, cruise missiles and other weapon systems expected to pose major threat to US warships for at least a decade... 'This is not a fleet that is being oriented to Chinese threat', said analyst. 'It's being oriented around irregular warfare/stability operations/dealing with rogue states' .

Eliot A.Cohen"A Revolution in Warfare: Technology Strikes Again" Foreign Affairs Vol.75/No.2 (Mar/Apr 96):-contends that complete/real-time knowledge of battlefield(plus guided ammunition)changed warfare in virtually every sphere -including political." Might lead...to drastic shrinking of military, casting aside old forms of organization and creation of new ones, slashing of current force structure, and investment of unusually large sums in [R&D]."

Eliot A.Cohen, "History and the Hyperpower" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-vast US scope, in comparison with any other state or group of states, gives it both capacities and opposition of past major empires(e.g. Rome, Britain), but its global interests/roles are unique and controversial. Author contendswell worth while to compare US positions and potential with historical styles/events/problems. "Historicalanalogy making rounds of late is notion that US today is an empire that can and should be compared with imperial powers of past...Casual talk of Pax Americana...implies that US is following pattern of imperial dominance that holds precedents and lessons. Metaphor of empire merits neither angry rejection nor gleeful embrace. It instead deserves careful scrutiny, because imperial history contains analogies and parallels that bear critically on current US predicament."

Norm Coleman "Kofi Annan Must Go" Wall Street Journal 01 Dec 04(COMMENTARY):-Senator Coleman is chairman of US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a Minnesota Republican. Senate subcommittee of which he is chairman has beeninvestigating the UN oil-for-food program in Iraq which was intended 1996-2003 to enable Iraq to buy food and medicine in return for oil. Iraqi regime of the time is widely believed to have subverted the program on a huge scale to benefit Saddam Hussein. Hence Coleman blames Annan and calls for hisresignation. Warren Hoge "US, in Public Statement, Backs Annan in His UN Post" New York Times 10 Dec 04:-reports that US Ambassador John C. Danforth announced, on behalf of White House and State Department, that UN played a role in many areas of concern to US...and that Washington expected to work closely with Annan. Associated Press "Oil-For-Food Scandal May Harm UN Reforms" in NYT 10 Dec 04:-reports on several aspects of issue, including strong support of UN member states for Annan, but warns of unfortunate time clash with Annan's initiatives for critical UN reforms(see very vital "Annan" items).Economist 11 Dec 04 "The United Nations: Blaming Annan" (Edit.11):-emphasises that UNSG should not receive" the campaign of vilification being mounted against him by his detractors" since any judgementwould be premature. Moreover, "he is servant of his political masters. This general rule applied with aparticular vengeance in the oil-for-food program. UN set up a secretariat to manage the program, butmembers of UNSC maintained ultimate control. Every contract was scrutinised by committee of its 15 members. It was not Annan's fault that this committee became deadlocked." AP "Powell: U.N. on Track With Iraqi Support" in NYT 16 Dec 04:-both UN, as the most truly global institution, and its Secretary General Kofi Annan, have been receiving more than their chronic suspicion from recently re-elected US politicians. US' s Iraq policy unfortunately generates particular focus of disagreement. Secretary of State Colin Powell gives "understated praise...for preparations UN is making to support elections in Iraq, andUNSG Annan said world body will beef up its support if need be...Annan was also speaking on proposals to revamp UN and on US relations with world body in address to private Council on Foreign Relations." Warren Hoge "Secret Meeting, Clear Mission:'Rescue'U.N." NYT 03 Jan 05:-publicity on private gathering of senior pro-UN/UNSG Annan supporters generated some controversy, but was described by one participant as "to save Kofi and rescue UN" .Item covers issues/potential/improvements. Economist 08 Jan 05 "America and the United Nations:Kofi Creamed" (30-1):-reports[,without judging truth,]elements of US-conservatives' UN criticisms: Israel(op.cit.);Cuba (op.cit.);expense of funding(op.cit.),that from some viewpoints seems bent on shackling US power/spreading socialism; perceived UNSG feud over US invasion of Iraq(op.cit.); International Criminal Court(op.cit.); $64b oil-for-food program in Iraq(op.cit.). " Meanwhile, list of complaints against UN gets longer by day. There are US grumbles about[:]UN allegedmishandling of relief for tsunami disaster[;]wrangles...going on about UN's role in Darfur[;] charges ofrape/sexual abuse of children by UN peacekeepers in Congo[;]dispute over UN's unwillingness to providehelp for Iraqi special tribunal set up to try...Saddam Hussein...For a time it looked as if Bush administrationwould give[Norm Coleman op.cit.]campaign to unseat Annan its tacit support too. But it appears to have decided to back off. Weak UNSG at head of enfeebled UN might, after all, serve Bush's interests betterthan tougher one...Some 130 countries, including all members of EU, had already announced their full support...Annan has been taking steps to repair relations with Washington. He has already had what UN officials describe as' encouraging'meeting with Condoleezza Rice...He announced that Mark Malloch Brown, media savvy head of UNDP...is to take over as his chief of staff." Sharon Otterman "Q&A: The Oil-for-Food Scandal" Council on Foreign Relations 11 Jan 05:-provides at considerable length both history of survey program and much of information already available via organizations investigating its misuse by Saddam Hussein. These of course include a preliminary report by the UN Independent Inquiry Committeeled by Paul A. Volcker, former US Federal Reserve Chairman. Claudio Gatti "US Ignored Warning on Iraqi Oil Smuggling, UN Says" Financial Times 13 Jan 05:-provides unexpected information on the oil-for-food scandal. "Joint investigation by FT and Il Sole 24 Ore, Italian business daily, shows that single-largest andboldest smuggling operation in oil-for-food program was conducted with knowledge of US government." FT "UN Warned To Brace For Reform As Crisis Grows" in NYT 16 Jan 05:-contains number of UN reform essentials described by Malloch Brown in interview with FT. He warned UN" that there could be worse to come, and that its management would feel consequences from investigation into allegations of corruption in 'oil-for-food' program.[He]warned that it was no longer only institution's traditional, conservative criticsthat were calling for a shake-up...'It should be mainstream preoccupation of every government shareholder of UN.'[There]would be a comprehensive report in March by Annan on saving internationalsecurity system, making development work, and reforming UN to make that happen." Judith Miller "Annan Planning Deep Changes in U.N. Structure, Aide Says" NYT 17 Jan 05:-also quotes Malloch Brown onnecessary UN reforms and report that UNSG "trying to embark on series of changes in how organization is organized/does business...'UN must win back trust of US public and world public opinion'.[C]hangeswere likely to include deeper reshuffling of Annan's senior management team, changes in internal rulesand procedures aimed at diminishing secrecy and enhancing accountability. Structural changes would also be geared toward helping[UN]respond faster and more openly to crises." Many reports by otherexperts on UN, and US views. Economist 02 Apr 05"The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Torturing the United Nations"(Edit.12-3); The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Kofi, Kojo and a Lot of Shredded Documents"(29-30):-Editorial argues that:"Something rotten happened. But wait for all the facts before demanding Kofi Annan's head... Neither of Volcker's [interim]reports to date makes clear case against Annan himself... In short, [there is evidence] Annan has been a weak manager - even if, which remains to be proven, his ethics are as pure as snow... But UN is not a company. Ultimate power rests with member states, not a chief executive with a licence to issue whatever orders he likes. In the case of [oil-for-food scandal,] there is especially strong argument for reserving final judgment until Volcker issues final report... [T]hisprogram was set up and run closely by UNSC itself [and] Volcker has yet to pronounce on how much blame lies with Annan and how much with his political masters... Better to wait a few months until Volcker report is complete". Other article discusses key contents and effects of the Volcker committee's second interim report, just issued. Main points relate to possible misdeeds/profits of UNSG Kofi Annan's son Kojo, employed by Swiss firm Cotecna, and Iqbal Riza, UNSG's former chief-of-staff. Result is thatAnnan fails to receive the full exoneration he wanted. "[H]is reputation has been besmirched, his credibility undermined and his moral authority badly eroded". Economist 13 Aug 05"The United Nations: A Nasty Smell"(26-7):-material on this subject has been massive over the past several months, but most has not been critical of UNSG Annan or even of "crooked UN personnel". As consequence I have collected copies of all relevant oil-for-food items and mounted them in order together. If I have time, I will list all their titles/dates/publications in another new file in the RECENT DEVELOPMENTS section. Situation may now have become serious for UNSG since 13 Aug article states: "According to the investigation, which was led by Paul Volcker, a former chairman of US Federal Reserve, Benon Sevan, head of the oil-for-food program, 'corruptly benefited'from $150,000 in kickbacks from a friend's oil company. Report also alleges that a Russian in UN's procurement division, Alexander Yakovlev, solicited bribes to help an inspection contractor win a bid. Yakovlev has pleaded guilty, but Sevan has denied any wrongdoing. Oil-for-food scandal has been rumbling on pretty much since Saddam Hussein was deposed. This is first time Volcker's commission, which was set up by [UNSG] Annan, has claimed unambiguously that UN officials have been on the take. US conservatives have seized on it as proof that UN is mismanaged". Rest of article deals with UN reforms being discussed.

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Cindy Collins & Thomas G.Weiss An Overview and Assessment of 1989-1996 Peace Operations Publications: Occasional Paper #28(Providence: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown Univ. 97):-any book ordering/ summarizing 2000-publications about globally critical issue is invaluable. Although prepared as research aid, concise text worth reading by itself for wealth of information/views it conveys on many big problems/decisions facing UN. Subjects: Root Causes of Armed Conflicts and Appropriate Responses; Decisions to Intervene(ethics, and UNSC/state processes); Planning and Implementing Intervention(UN, state, and NGO processes/relations).

Carl Conetta & Charles Knight Vital Force: A Proposal for the Overhaul of the UN Peace Operations System and for the Creation of a UN Legion(Cambridge: Commonwealth Institute 95):-detailed and fairly technical proposal, employing in-depth knowledge of modern military organization and capabilities. Like Government of Canada's simultaneous proposal(op.cit.)this was prepared in response to suggestion by UNSG(Boutros-Ghali)that UN-controlled rapid response capability needed. After identifying six problems affecting "authorization, planning, and execution of peace operations" , it proposes creation of four organizations: Military Advisory and Cooperation Council; multilateral Field Communication and Liaison Corps; strengthened Secretariat staff structure; four-brigade permanent standing force(UN Legion)plus field support structure(44,000 personnel).

David Cortright & George A.Lopez edit. Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World? (Boulder: Westview Press 95):-useful collection analysing value of sanctions from many points of view. Divided into sections on sanctions' : history/experience; assessment from legal/ethical/practical standpoints; case studies including: Iraq(pro/con)/ Yugoslavia(very critical)/Haiti/South Africa.Recommendations: set UN Council on Sanctions; undertake new research topics: should sanctions be immediate, comprehensive, harsh and multilateral, or graduated; determine value of focused financial actions, both positive and negative; better monitoring.

David Cortright edit. The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention (Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield 97):-rarely researched topic: value and optimum methods of using positive incentives rather than coercion of any type to achieve diplomatic ends. Many examples -mostly successful and many involving UN- offered: Baltic States/Russia; Bosnia; Czechoslovakia; India/Pakistan; Malawi; North Korea; PRC; Salvador; South Africa(failed); South Korea; Sweden; Taiwan; West Bank/Gaza; Uganda; Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. Includes very good wrap-up essay.

Robert Cottrell, "A Work in Progress: A Survey of Europe" The Economist 23 Oct 99(1-18):-key trends inera of rapid globalization include:(1)increasing constraints on economic, financial, cultural autonomy of nation-states; (2)growing intrusions into traditionally absolute domestic sovereignty, under security/human rights pressures; (3)institutional means by which state of international anarchy being perceptibly contained. Since Europe has moved furthest/most deliberately in following all three, this general, non-technical survey of main challenges facing European Union and their likely outcomes, has immense global relevance. After setting scene historically, survey discusses in turn "five recent fundamental shifts in structure of post-war Europe and its international relations" :(1)inversion of Franco-German balance in favour of Germany;(2)emergence of strong sense leading EU countries should have capacity for collective military action separable from NATO/US;(3)introduction of new common currency;(4)replacement of power ofEurocrats by Councils directly representing national governments;(5)planned EU enlargement.

Jocelyn Coulon, Soldiers of Diplomacy: The United Nations, Peacekeeping, and the New World Order(Toronto: Univ.of Toronto Press 98):-translated from French(Les Casques Bleus) considerably more than vivid journalist account of visits to various UN peacekeeping forces at crucial historic times: Coulon one of Canada's best-informed, often very thoughtful, military commentators. First gives brief history of origin and first 30 years of peacekeeping. Then concentrates on UN "golden age" immediately after Cold War ended, and tells how and why explosion of unprepared-for activities overstretched system and created negativeover-reaction. Operations described, in terms of both personal narrative and political machinations, are those in Lebanon, Cambodia, Western Sahara, Somalia, and Bosnia. Final chapters address UN's problems/limitations - and opportunities.

Timothy Wallace Crawford "Why Minimum Force Won't Work: Doctrine and Deterrence in Bosnia and Beyond" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr/Jun 98):-since many diagnoses for failures of UN role in Bosnia, analyses problem for future through critique of doctrine(s)UN attempted, particularly "minimum force." Argument: Military deterrence coercion, which entails dropping peacekeeping rules like participants' consent/minimum force. UN forces' credibility ability/will to take effective military action key to deterring local parties from attacking each other/UN.Threat includes offensive.

Barbara Crossette "World Court Chief Faults U.S.Over Its U.N.Dues" New York Times 31 Oct 99:-maybemost stinging rebuke to US for ignoring its treaty obligation to pay UN dues comes from authoritativeAmerican, President of International Court of Justice, Stephen M.Schwebel. Member since 81, Justice has "watched new body and practice of international law evolve" ;supports formation of International Criminal Court;very conscious US took lead obtaining Court's ruling peacekeeping operations bills legally binding. Confirming "no question" of US legal obligation to pay past assessments owes UN, he also argued "Hard to see rational basis for US actions. Other governments baffled at such self-destructivepolicy...International law bound up with increasing integration of international life" .

Barbara Crossette "A U.N. Watchdog Exits to Applause" New York Times 15 Nov 99:-reports very successfulcompletion 5-year term by first head UN Office of Internal Oversight Services. Karl Theodor Paschke, former personnel/ management chief, German Foreign Ministry, appointed USG level as watchdog to fight corruption/mismanagement. Expanded auditing throughout UN/sent inspectors around world/uncovered dollars millions in fraud/abuse. UN now dismisses employees quickly/losses recovered/criminal cases to trial/Annan's management reforms working. Predictably, Paschke praised by US Congress but criticized by some developing nations for coming from rich country, and some major reports blocked. Concluded: UN'sfaults similar to those in other big bureaucracies, even though faces unique challenges(e.g. inpeacekeeping/emergency relief operations/global procurement, where corruption worst).

Barbara Crossette "Advocates for Children Joining U.N. Peacekeeping Missions" New York Times 18 Feb 00:-for first time, UN will assign full-time children's advocates to top operational staff abroad of all peacekeeping missions. Announced by Olara A.Otunnu, Special Representative of SG for Children and Armed Conflict. First advocate assigned for Sierra Leone where atrocities against(and by)children have been particularly serious, and two will be assigned to UN force in Congo, so far all from UNICEF. Otunnu explained:" For protection and welfare of children to be taken seriously, and not be marginalized, we must have[advocates]within central political structure" .Will advise Mission heads, coordinate all child assistance groups, determine necessary programs for children and(since civil war combatants may ignore Conventions)also mobilize public opinion.

Barbara Crossette "The U.N.'s Unhappy Lot: Perilous Police Duties Multiplying" New York Times 22 Feb 00:-describes challenge facing UN in finding/managing very large number of police officers demanded by new peacekeeping duties and dangers.(For history of UN police activities, see Oakley op.cit.)UNPeacekeeping Operations' total staff of 400 must find/deploy nearly 9,000 specially qualified officersimmediately(almost 5,000 for Kosovo, 2000+for Bosnia, 1,640 for East Timor).For first time, UN police in Kosovo/East Timor have direct executive law enforcement powers and in Kosovo will be armed. Less than half Kosovo force has arrived(and some returned as unqualified).Thus in assuming responsibility for law and order, UN police activities not only grown but become more varied/complex/delicate/ hazardous. Many are worried that current assignments will exceed UN capacity.

Barbara Crossette "Smuggling of Iraqi Oil Is Rising, U.N. Is Told" New York Times 24 Mar 00; "Annan Exhorts U.N. Council on 'Oil for Food'for Iraqis" 25 Mar 00; "Security Council Votes to Let Iraq Buy Oil Gear" 01 Apr 00; The Economist 12 Feb 00 "One Man's Joy in Iraq" (41-2):- summaries ignore" current events" unless text has permanent/long-term significance. UN sanctions against Iraq in 00 illustrate extremely well problems raised by chronic sanctions issues, and how they could influence both Iraq and US by 01-03. Among those either inherent from start and/or critical by 00:(1)scale/variety/severity of sanctions imposed(most ambitious UN pressure applied);(2)(dis)unity of SC members over sanctions' aims/targets/costs/means(P5 increasingly split);(3)authority/popularity/mettle/world economic integration/vulnerability/value of target regime(Saddam runs tight political/media system, is personally at threat but tough about others, and holds pretty strong economic hand);(4)strategic importance of target state/its people/friends/resources/military capacity/philosophy(Iraq both very strong/very weak).

Barbara Crossette "U.S. Ready for Much Larger Security Council" New York Times 04 Apr 00:-update on long attempt at UNSC membership reform. In spite of major power shifts and huge membership growthsince 45, five permanent (veto-wielding)members remain unchanged, while 183 states now share 10 rotating seats. Yet powerful Council must be decisive, and was never intended to be representative. Fassbender(op.cit.)explains basic dilemma: Council can become more equal, representative, or effective - but never all three. Article reports some small progress: US no longer demands limit of 20-1 seats, so 28are now proposed. This may ease deadlock on(permanent)regional seats. Since France and UK refuseto pass permanent status to EU, Germany and(?)may be added. Japan plus 2-3 Asian seats become feasible.Africa and Latin America could also have more flexibility for aspirants.

Barbara Crossette "U.S. Report Says the U.N. Has Improved With Changes" New York Times 29 May 00:-summarizes "surprisingly positive report on...UN" written by US General Accounting Office for Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Criticisms of UN by committee have been "frequent and shrill" and it playedmajor role in US' ignoring its legally-binding UN debts, and unilaterally demanding SG/Secretariat implement wide range of political reforms (Helms, Speech op.cit.). Yet GAO concludes SG Annan made "considerable strides in improving [UN] management", and clearly "differentiates between reform goals[SG/Secretariat]can meet alone and those that are dependent on decisions of 188 member nations" .Moreover, GAO notes, "where there are serious failures or lags in putting changes into practice...shortcomings often related to fuzzy instructions from[UNGA,]...20% in each year[being]too open-ended or vague to determine what objectives[SG]expected to accomplish" -often reflecting political compromises. SG is credited with improving coordination and appointing chief operating officer, who in turn established standard code of conduct. While UN peace operations now reflect unified policy and integrated planning, overall UN capacity "to manage, logistically support and respond to rapid changes in...demand" have not been addressed because "organization, under severe financial handicaps and with demands on it multiplying, does not have capability to manage scope and scale of activity." Full text of report can be obtained via GAO home page: www.gao.gov.

Wendy Cukier, "International Fire/Small Arms Control" (73-90)Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1(Fall 98):-describes close links between firearms control as element of domestic crime prevention and growing body of international small arms controls, and urges more cooperation. Common strategy should include:conflict prevention/peace building; disarmament; injury prevention, safety and health promotion; crime prevention/security. After providing statistics on global/national threat posed by small arms, essay describesdifferent perspectives on intervention to prevent casualties. Then discusses data collection/surveillance;sources of firearms/small arms; various methods of controlling supply(limits on access; controls on manufacture/sales/transfers; removal from circulation by amnesties/ buy-backs). "Multi-layered, comprehensive[diversified]approach is essential" .

Ivo H.Daalder & Michael E.O'Hanlon"Unlearning the Lessons of Kosovo"Foreign Policy No.116 (Fall 99):-test of assumptions to see if Kosovo sets precedent for humanitarian interventions. NATO Won: air campaign was clearly NATO success in gaining more than originally asked, but only after Serbs had uprooted 1.3m Kosovars. Airpower Alone Worked: while" probably most successful use of strategic bombardmentin history of warfare" , vulnerable Serb infrastructure, 40,000 KLA troops, credible NATO invasion, were also key. Powell Doctrine is Dead: NATO power was not "decisive" initially, but grew until it was so. UN Is Nice, But Not Necessary: UN still cannot run military operations itself, but new UNSC unity helped Serbs concede, and UN political mandate unprecedented. In Military Terms, Europe Is a Dwarf: US ran war, butEurope now running peace/reordering its armed forces. Lessons: such operations not cheap/easy; US must still lead and be willing to commit troops.

Ivo Daalder & Jan Lodal "The Logic of Zero: Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons"(80-95) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"US nuclear policy remains stuck in the Cold War even as the threats the United States faces - nuclear terrorism chief among them - have changed. Washington must lead the way to a world without nuclear weapons, and the first step is for US to dramatically limit its own nuclear arsenal's size and declared purpose". Daalder is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Lodal is immediate past President of the Atlantic Council of the US and a former senior Defense Department and White House official in the administrations of Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Bill Clinton.

Lori Fisler Damrosch edit. Enforcing Restraint: Collective Intervention in Internal Conflicts(New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press 93):-not just quickly out-of-date reports on six cases of internal conflictstudied, i.e. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Haiti, Liberia, Somalia, and Cambodia. Each expert tries to draw from themlessons of more general value. Hence they can be used as background or source material for other studies of these cases.

Donald C.F.Daniel, Bradd C.Hayes and Chantal deJonge Oudraat, Coercive Inducement and the Containment of International Crises(Washington:US Institute of Peace Press 99):-novel look at various multilateral peace operations since 88. Effort is valuable as new diversity/ complexity/ cost brought confused or bad mandates/structures/ resources/motives/aims/hopes. Worse, many overwhelmed(soundermined)UN system both unprepared and unable to handle them. Address many operations between traditional peacekeeping(firm ceasefire/both sides' consent/fully impartial/minimum self-defense)and military enforcement. Middle option termed Coercive Inducement(CI): "judicious resort to coercive diplomacy or forceful persuasion by international community in order to implement community norms or mandates vis-a-vis all parties to particular crisis." UN operations in Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda, Haiti analysed to show effects of abiding by or contravening principles of CI:(1)Inducement Contingents(ICs)function under aegis of leading state or coalition in operations endorsed by UN.(2)CI personnel represent both moral authority andcredible force.(3)While aspiring for as much universality as possible, ICs primarily reflect capabilities that make for immediately effective crisis responses.(4)IC personnel assume no more than provisional consent, so act to impose community will on recalcitrant parties. (5)While not intending to harm anyone's interests, IC must implement mandates even when doing so prejudices interests of one or more party.(6)Force may be used for other than self-defense, but should not exceed minimum to cause desired behaviour.(7)IC mustplan to minimize casualties while preparing for worst. End offers operational guidelines when following CI principles, and circumstances that make it essential.

Gustav Daniker, The Guardian Soldier: On the Nature and Use of Future Armed Forces(Geneva: United Nations UNIDIR 36 95):-thoughtful analysis by Swiss military strategist of effects and opportunities brought by end of Cold War. He sees security as multi-faceted, long-sighted, and aimed at stability - not destruction.

James Dao & Andrew C.Revkin"Machines Are Filling In for Troops"New York Times 16 Apr 02:- issue presents "A Revolution in Warfare" of informative" interactive feature offering scenes from robot battle"; substantial survey of current US military thinking/planning on reducing both number/vulnerability of US personnel directly engaged in combat. While technology already "brought array of sensors, vehicles and weapons that can be operated by remote control or totally autonomous" stunning success in Afghanistan has accelerated existing "shift away from people...to automation." Assets are many: much smaller/lighter than manned units, making them cheaper, more fuel efficient/easier to move and have unlimited attention-spans. Most important, can both shield and augment(expensive) live soldier, while feeling neither exhaustion nor fear. "[O]ver time[such]technologies produce biggest change in warfare in generations" particularly when provided with" much greater autonomy, powerful artificial intelligence" .

Tobias Debiel, "Strengthening the UN as an Effective World Authority: Cooperative Security Versus Hegemonic Crisis Management" Global Governance Vol.6/No.1(Jan/Mar 00):-neither as academic or utopian as title might suggest, looks at very practical/pertinent issue of what UN can and should do to be more effective in peacekeeping and crisis prevention roles. Such roles increase in importance as consensus develops: national sovereignty may be curtailed in exceptional humanitarian circumstances. Argued: world, unready for legally-bound multilateralism, and widely opposed to superpower-driven coercion,must turn to cooperative security - willing collaboration of all types of bodies: interest groups/relevant states/regional organizations. Core element UN must create "standby capacities for early warning/conflict management/peacekeeping; reform of non-military sanctions instrument; and speedy institution of international criminal court" (39).

Louis A.Delvoie"The Kosovo War: A Long Catalogue of Losers"Behind the Headlines Vol.57/ No.2,3 (Winter/ Spring 00):-NATO's 99 air campaign against rump "Yugoslavia" has had many supporters and critics. Former mainly argue that it succeeded in noble humanitarian aim of relieving Kosovars from Serbian oppression; latter argue force was itself wrong and/or stress absence of UN imprimatur. Author seeks those involved that were net losers in conflict. NATO: hurt its image/reputation/ future effectiveness by launching war of aggression, ending its credibility as purely defensive alliance; United Nations: sidelined/marginalized, lost any post-Gulf hope it might play its Charter peace/ security role; OSCE: reputation/credibility suffered when its 1,300 Observers had to withdraw hastily when many of OSCE members attacked state where they were to keep peace; Kosovars: NATO's "beneficiaries" suffered hundreds dead and thousands displaced before bombing, but thousands dead, hundreds of thousands displaced once two deterrents (OSCE plus threat to bomb)ceased to restrain; Serbs: suffered "collateral" casualties, food/watershortages as infrastructure hit, and vast long-term economic loss from bombing/sanctions; Balkan Stability:lost in refugee floods, revived ethnic tension; "New European Security Architecture": Russia reacted withanger/ condemnation, needing much time/effort to defuse; US: lost in stature/credibility e.g. through suddenchange in KLA image, public policy it would not risk ground troops, ominous intelligence error on Chinese Embassy; Western Governments: caught with double standards over Serbia/Chechnya. Many lessons to be learned.

Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

David B.Dewitt, David G.Haglund & John J.Kirton edit. Building a New Global Order: Emerging Trends in International Security(Toronto: Oxford Univ.Press 93):-varied group of essays analysing security impact of post-Cold War realities and trends on power relations, on international issues(military, economic, cultural, environmental, demographic)and on various "institutions" particularly UN, but also on NATO, G-7, treaties, etc.

Margaret P. Doxey International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective: Second Edition(London: Macmillan Press 96):-definitive guide to non-military sanctions. Describes/assesses all major cases since WWI:Italy(1935), Yugoslavia(by USSR),Cuba, Rhodesia, South Africa, Egypt(by Arab League),Iran, USSR(re Afghanistan/Poland), Argentina, Iraq, Yugoslavia/Serbia, Libya, Haiti. Includes: definition, history,types(political, cultural-communications, economic);contexts, frameworks, intentions; costs and burden-sharing; implementation; impact on targets(their vulnerability and response);UN problem areas:(a)decisions to impose/remove;(b)sharing of cost and collateral damage; © problems of coordination, monitoring and policing.

Margaret P. Doxey United Nations Sanctions: Current Policy Issues: Revised Edition(Halifax: Dalhousie Univ. 99):-containing information up to Apr 99. Appendix offers basic facts about all sanctions imposed under UN Charter(Chap. VII).Text examines four issues subject to debate:(1)Domestic economic costs of sanctions to "sending" states and prospects for burden-sharing. Options: financial help; tariff adjustments;technical/humanitarian assistance; specific help on sanctions enforcement.(2)Mitigation on humanitarian grounds of sanctions-induced hardships in "targets" . Ideally, punishment fits crime but scope for: improving ways to determine need; handling humanitarian exemptions; avoiding abuse through monitoring.(3)Determining scope for direct targeting of leaders and elite groups. Types of targeted sanctions: personal travel restrictions; limit/end international bodies' membership(privileges); limit air links; cultural/sportsboycotts; financial sanctions(freezing assets)-most promising, but speed/information/selection/discipline critical.(4)Improved administration/enforcement. Much effort underway to improve work of Sanctions Committees; humanitarian issues handled better, but to detect/control serious violations of sanctions regimes still strictly limited.

Margaret P. Doxey, "Sanctions Through the Looking Glass: The Spectrum of Goals and Achievements" International Journal Vol.LV/No.2(Spring 00):-expert, realistic look at recent UN experience with sanctions, and at current thinking on how they could be improved. (All Chapter VII sanctions to Jan 00 are listed.)Security Council use of sanctions has increased greatly since 1990(earlier it approved only two: Rhodesia, South Africa); hence study of optimum use has also expanded. US has been keenest supporter, but public opinion in many democracies under media pressure, has increased demands governments "do something" about human rights violations - broadening both "targets" and "goals" and changing criteria of success. Political effective might now include not only gaining compliance, but also stigmatizing orcontaining targets, and as means of preventing or deterring certain action. Success is harder to judge, particularly when multiple pressures, to both apply and satisfy. All are analysed. Finally, essay discusses means of focusing sanctions better, not only on elites but away from innocents.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

William J. Durch edit. UN Peacekeeping, American Politics, and the Uncivil Wars of the 1990s(New York: St. Martin's Press 96):-provides good history of/rationale for negative trends in US policies towards UN and peacekeeping in post-Cold War period, but particularly since Mogadishu(most succinctly in 10-7; more detail in 35-67). Rest of 500pp offer full diplomatic accounts of UN operations -faults/lessons- in El Salvador/Angola/Cambodia/Yugoslavia/Mozambique/ Somalia/Rwanda/Russian borderlands.

Gwynne Dyer, "Globalization and the Nation-State" Behind the Headlines Vol.53/No.4(Summer 96):-a morepositive view of some major global trends than they are usually perceived. Dyer notes that violence is down/localized; vastly improved communications accelerates democracy; unemployment/income disparities may mainly reflect transitions.

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

The Economist 25 Jul 98 "A Challenge to Impunity" (Edit.21-2):-cautiously optimistic on decision in Rome to establish International Criminal Court, despite US attempts to weaken and finally block it. Vote 120-7 in favour left US "humiliated and glum"but, as with landmine treaty, it showed willingness of other states to move ahead without superpower to create rule of law. Text outlines questions of contention and weakness but argues court long overdue(planned to follow Nuremberg/Tokyo trials);but large body of international law covering genocide/war crimes/crimes against humanity developed since. Court can show both independence and moral force. See 13 Jun 98/09 Oct 99 for more.

The Economist 29 Aug 98 "Punish and be Damned" (Edit.15 plus related articles: 42,43,44,45,52):-published after US military raids in reaction to attacks on two US embassies in Africa. Editorial assesses value of violent reprisals to major acts of terrorism causing global implications and horror, but where capture of perpetrators is difficult. "If it resorts to punishment raids without best of reasons[,aggrieved state]risks finding itself increasingly friendless in truly important disputes....Vigilance, intelligence and...determined pursuit of terrorists through courts may pay off handsomely in long run - without putting at risk world's sense of outrage and help that comes with it".

The Economist 02 Jan 99 "The 21st-Century Army: A New But Risky Sort of War" (28-9):-some of latest training/ weaponry being tested by US Marine Corps. Training is designed for "low-intensity conflicts" i.e. peace-making/ peace-enforcement operations where lower-rank leaders make major decisions. Planners anticipate "three-block wars" in which troops "would simultaneously be distributing food and medicine to frantic civilians in one part of city, quelling rioters/maintaining order in another; fighting guerrillas in third" - typical UN-type challenges(Haiti/Somalia/Bosnia).New weapons include "non-lethal munitions" such as bean-bagprojectiles, pepper spray, blinding flashlights, adhesive foam, plus double-option guns able to fire lethally or non-lethally. Hope US, allies, presumably UN can keep ahead.

The Economist 27 Feb 99 "Japan's Constitution: The Call to Arms" (23-5):-very controversial element of UN reform relates to expanding membership of Security Council(UNSC). Single most eager/naturaladditional permanent member Japan, second-largest economy in world/second biggest contributor to UN budget. But UNSC responsibility to maintain international peace and security, so members expected to play major role in UN peacemaking. But Article 9 of Japan's Constitution renounces "threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes." While Japan maintains modern Self-Defence Force, many oppose it being used abroad, even in UN peacekeeping activities. Essay discusses current debate in Japan over use of its armed forces.

The Economist 03 Apr 99 "War with Milosevic" (17-21):-collection of mainly analytical essays on NATO confrontation with Serbia, discussing: both sides' probable aims, tactics and options; situation in/effect onMacedonia; US/Clinton sequence of thinking and actions, and their possible effect on internationalism and NATO; implications under/possibly for international law; long-term historic and recent background to Kosovo's role for both sides.

The Economist 17 Apr 99 "Refugees: Exporting Misery" (23-7):-origins, political/military uses, ultimate destinies, of many past refugee issues, designed to help determine Serb aims and NATO options in Kosovo. While global number/exploitation/impact of refugees seem to have escalated recently, tragedy so chronic that historical lessons can be drawn. Nature of triggering conflict(ideological/ethnic/economic)and how it ends are critical. Ethnic conflicts most difficult to end, while reconciliation aids resettlement. Of four types of basic refugee assistance(safe havens in homeland; camps nearby; more distant resettlement; permanent repatriation), experience and circumstances favour repatriation in spite of difficulty/high cost. Additional lessons: separate refugees from combatants; give them some choice of location if movement necessary; or of timing if repatriation possible.

The Economist 24 Apr 99 "Lawyer Sam's War" (30):-US State Department citing international law much more in its foreign policy argumentation. Significant since US recently isolated in opposing International Criminal Court and Anti-Personnel Landmine decisions, and has refused to recognize international lawsperceived threatening to US interests. Newly-created US Ambassador for War Crimes, with considerable influence, claims war over Kosovo may be "watershed not only for NATO but for international law." Argued in past for such "humanitarian interventions" , even if they infringe national sovereignty, but they should be authorized by Security Council.

The Economist 19 Jun 99 "Go Forth and Don't Multiply" (62):-while discusses condoms from business point of view, directly relevant to key social, developmental, and - since AIDS - health roles. Although sales flat in Europe and US, demand in some emerging markets, such as India/Indonesia, rising 15%/year. Population experts anticipate world market could grow fourfold, to 24b condoms/year. Since selling condoms often socially -sometimes politically- tricky, and both AIDS and family planning roles stressed, many companies distribute via charities or governments.

The Economist 24 Jul 99 "How Angola's War Protects Polio" (43):-sobering evidence of both human security's interdependence and multiple afflictions of violence. Probably WHO's greatest achievement was global eradication of smallpox in 79. For 10 years UN bodies/governments been fighting to eradicate polio, which at peak killed or paralysed 500,000 people annually. Effective vaccine now immunizes by few drops in baby's mouth. Hence by 98 reported cases reduced to 5,000, limited to pockets mainly in Africa/South Asia, thus creating hope to eliminate polio by 00. But these last bastions hardest, mainly because of civil wars, e.g. Sierra Leone/Congo/Sudan/Somalia. In Angola, UNITA has both blocked aid workers and driven so many refugees into such huge camps these actually created major polio outbreak. "For polio virus, war is last safe haven" .

The Economist 20 Nov 99 "Don't Ask for More, Mr. Annan" (47):-strong critique of forced payment by US of only portion of legally-bound debts to UN, and with strict unilateral conditions. For details of Clinton-Congressional "compromise" ,see Wren(op.cit.).Among barbs: "[US]still owes UN some $600m, and deal includes sort of constraints no national government would even dream of accepting, [but]barely registered.[I]dea that world's richest country can unilaterally cancel its debts is something that even US' s closest allies find hard to stomach. If US can walk away from its debts why not others?.[I]dea of Congress unilaterally deciding what happens to a multilateral organization (without even bothering to go through formality of letting other countries vote)marks new step[in US strong-arming]" .[My two bits: there seems to be no recognition in Congress that in berating "UN" for stupidity, waste, errors, etc., it is in fact insulting every government on earth, but especially US. We all made UN what it is.]

The Economist 04 Mar 00 "War and Money: The Business of Conflict" (46-8):-while land/people conquesthas long been goal of warfare, such "fixed assets" can now be costly and unstable. Report by ICRC(Forum: War, Money and Survival,Geneva:Mar 00)argues: "Prolonged internal violence in[lands]with rich natural resources but corrupt or weak governments may best be understood as battles for money or[marketable]resources...Some wars are caused in large part by corruption and banditry...whereas otherswhich may have begun as ethnic or ideological conflicts, are now sustained in part by illicit trading[Afghan opium, Colombian cocaine]. Rebels, governments and even peacekeepers have fought for diamonds, minerals and timber in recent wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone" . Many participants(arms/other traders, mercenaries)may prefer to continue to exploit a war rather than win and end it. Such "resource" wars are particularly hard to end if the" fighters" have no goal but profit. Trade sanctions may help;then smugglers gain. As example of key role of diamonds in financing bloody and protracted war in Angola, see Barbara Crossette "Report on Angola Sanctions is Challenged in the U.N." New York Times 16 Mar 00. One in series of fine articles on expert investigation for Security Council's Angola Sanctions Committee, it reports two African presidents, Bulgarian government and diamond exchange in Antwerp were inter alia implicatedin smuggling and sale of Angolan diamonds by UNITA rebels, contrary to UN sanctions. Canadian committeechairman has called for action against sanctions-busters, first time a sanctions committee has actively enforced embargo. Corrective action was promised. For full account of diamonds' role in conflicts: Blaine Harden "Africa's Gems: Warfare's Best Friend" NYT 06 Apr. Expert claims 10-15% of world supply comes from war zones. World Bank report goes further and blames outbreak and/or continuation of vast majority of recent civil wars, not on ethnic motives, but on greed for control of valuable commodities like diamonds, other gemstones, narcotics, oil, coffee etc. Joseph Kahn "World Bank Blames Diamonds and Drugs for Many Wars" NYT 16 Jun sees two conclusions: discourage states from becoming too heavily dependent on commodities, and control their illicit sale before/during conflict. Barbara Crossette, "Singling Out Sierra Leone, U.N. Council Sets Gem Ban" NYT 06 Jul:-action by UNSC in latter direction: it" imposed worldwide ban on purchase of rough diamonds from Sierra Leone until its government can establish system to certify origin of stones being exported, and begins to assert authority over diamond fields" . Most are now under rebel control, with stones smuggled out through Liberia. Resolution is admittedly experimental, but aims at roots of war, reflects growing cooperation from both industry/governments, and may signal major new UN peacemaking tool. Economist 08 Jul "Is That a Rebel Rock on Your Finger?" (42):-notes West African governments(with US support) prevented extending ban to Liberia, but it may at least lower smugglers' prices-up to 50%. Associated Press "Diamond Industry Acts to Halt Trade in Illicit Gems From Africa" NYT20 Jul: World Diamond Congress, conscious that growing horror about "blood diamonds" could seriously hurt trade, has arranged means(verifiable certificates of place of origin)to track diamonds mine/retailer and applyheavy penalties(ban licences)to who break rules.

The Economist 25 Mar 00 "Russia's Arms Industry: Ivan the Lethal" (68-9):-partial recovery of Russian arms exports, particularly super-quiet submarines/missiles/fighter aircraft, to level where" Russian armsindustry has not looked so healthy for over decade" .Defence procurement just rose 50%(to $2.2b)and former Soviet republics may restore military-industrial links. Arms exports likely to reach $4.3b in 00through:(1)low-priced sales of simple weapons(guns/tanks)to poor countries;(2)advanced-weapons sales to big countries(China/India).Problems: unreliable aircraft engines, quality control, after-sales service. Once huge 89 stocks running out - and getting obsolescent. Since R&D also stopped at that time, and allnew funds needed to maintain current deployment (including nuclear),best 89 weapons must now be sold. Designing own weapons, China or India won't help. For summary of Putin's apparent position re all matters nuclear: Celestine Bohlen "Putin Vows Russia Will Invigorate Its Nuclear Force" New York Times 01 Apr 00. For information on arms industry in Eastern Europe particularly Czech Republic(aircraft; anti-stealth radar)see Peter S. Green "Where the Armorers No Longer Thrive" NYT 02 Apr 00.

The Economist 08 Apr 00 "All Wrong in Iraq" (20-2); "Iraq and the West: When Sanctions Don't Work" (23-5):-UN sanctions against Iraq -most comprehensive ever imposed- clearly not working. Severely hurt innocent; failed to disarm in key areas, let alone unseat, target: Saddam Hussein; damaged UN's reputation. Yet ending them would damage UN, and global stability, even more. Essay offers account ofwhy and how sanctions were set up, modified, and are failing(original terms/aims/successes; disastrous cost for ordinary Iraqis, and resulting flawed reform; how Hussein insulates himself).Editorial examinesUN's options(1)Make easier for Iraq to import innocuous, necessary goods, monitoring dual-use items. Already tried/manipulated/proved imperfect.(2)Oil exports freed but arms-making/related imports banned. Monitoring constrained/laborious; military funds unlimited.(3)As for(2), plus as much internal/import monitoring as possible(Iraq pays)and warning of "prodigious" air retribution for cheating or threatening activity.

The Economist 13 May 00 "Hopeless Africa" (Edit.17); "The Heart of the Matter" (22-4):-analyses of Africa's multiple and multiplying problems similar to those of Bayart, Ellis and Hibou(op.cit.).Editorial deals mainly with Sierra Leone, and difficulty, but long-term necessity, of robust UN interventions. Item tries to explainwhy so much gone so wrong, so consistently. Like Reader(op.cit.)it relates emphasis onfamily/friends/local loyalties to geography, climate, disease, isolation. Yet it blames political/economicfailures, and tendencies toward self-serving, corrupt, exploitative autocracy(even if hidden by veneer of democracy)as much on outside influences - disruptive colonial experience/donor paternalism - as on continental culture of survival. Way out does not yet lie through facade of democracy, but first bysomehow creating self-confidence/mutual trust. John Stremlau "Ending Africa's Wars" Foreign AffairsVol.79/No.4(Jul/Aug 00):-agrees about serious problem of African(mostly internal)conflicts, but sees true democracy as key to solution. Argues democracy would help prevent wars before they start, since most result from bad governance. "Weak, authoritarian African governments lack institutional capacity to manage factional struggles" ; they exclude ethnic groups, and allow poverty and gross income inequality- thus producing conflict. International intervention should respond - between Somalian-Rwandan extremes, but it needs reliable regional partners. South Africa fills this need politically/economically, and should be supported, including in UN.

The Economist 05 Aug 00"Engage and Prosper" (Edit.22-3); "Peacekeeping: The UN's Missions Impossible"(Essay:24-6); "Road-Mending in Lebanon"(Note:25);"Kouchnerism in Kosovo" (Note:26):-editorial, essayand notes have one subject in common: role of United Nations. Leader makes point US took lead in 1945,creating UN System and its rules; later helped build UN-centred global network of legal economic and security rules. Yet" pre-eminent victor of Cold War has failed to provide leadership needed to build kind of international system unruly post-Cold-War world demands" .Instead it chooses rules it obeys, or those it ignores - setting politically/morally dangerous precedent of unilateral exemptions from rule of law, and of selective involvement even when its own paramount beliefs are flouted. Essay offers expert history - warts and all - of evolving UN peacekeeping that now makes humanitarian intervention in cases of gross violation of human rights almost compulsory. Yet UN is refused men, money and structure necessary to undertake increasingly complex and dangerous missions, including effectively in East Timor and Kosovosimultaneous administration/creation of civil regimes, reconstruction of badly damaged economies, and maintenance of peace in societies split by hatred. Priority recommendations: UN needs good intelligence analysis, and UNSG willing to refuse clearly impossible missions. Notes describe:(1)lengthy(22 years),dangerous(82 dead), and frustrating(finally completed)experience of UN force(UNIFIL)in south Lebanon sent to supervise Israeli withdrawal;(2)Bernard Kouchner unique responsibility:" begin buildingpeace/democracy/stability and self-government" in Kosovo. Common thread might be: world badly needs US-UN to work together to create new rules and structures to help ensure unprecedented/rapidly-evolving21st Century challenges can be handled.

The Economist 19 Aug 00 "The Caucasus: Where Worlds Collide" (17-9):-tackles perhaps most ethnically explosive/ politically unruly/economically depressed region in world. It offers non-experts concise picture of "states" in area, whether recognized(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia),self-proclaimed(Abkazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia),aspiring(Ajaria?, Dagestan?, Ingushetia?, Javakheti?, Nakhichevan?, North Ossetia?)or neighbouring(Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey)in terms of their recent clashes/multiple secession/inter-ethnic problems; appalling political/economic conditions, and interests/roles of almost all in others' affairs. Wonderful chart on this. Among major points made: there might be 100b barrels of oil and gas around Caspian; 3000km of international borders in Caucasus of which 9km(sic)truly friendly; "same cocktail of bad government, spite-thy-neighbour and poverty poisons life in[whole]of Caucasus" ; "political and military stalemate disguises economic/social catastrophe" ; since independence2m(50%of population)emigrated from Armenia, 1m(20%)from Georgia, 1.5m(20%)from Azerbaijan; for one of many "solutions" :www.ceps.be.

The Economist 02 Sep 00 "The Price of Paying Ransoms" (Edit. 17):-recalling large number of highly publicized hostage-takings recently(Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, Fiji, former Soviet Union, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Yemen)confirms global trend upwards. Those taken in 1999 increased by 6% over 1998, number has been growing at that rate for several years - producing total increase of 70% over eight years. Ransom by Libya of Jolo Island hostages at $1m each taught kidnappers:" holding few hostages keeps army away; grabbing more keeps money rolling in" ,as well as someglobal politics(for Libyan motives/source of funds: "Qaddafi, Floating Like a Butterfly" (41)). Whilekidnapping has many causes( "inequalities of wealth, availability of guns, rebel armies looking for funds, underpaid police" )main reason is rewards. Hence universal lesson: hostage-taking must be seen not to pay. Short of capturing/punishing kidnappers[absence of any safe haven may be critical], it may also meanmaking it illegal to pay ransom.[Editor might add: such rules work best if applied/enforced globally.]

The Economist 02 Sep 00 "South Africa's Role in the World" (Edit:17-8); "South Africa's Migrant Workers: A Ticket to Prosperity" (21-4):-stresses economic/political importance of Africa's "mini-superpower" to continent. South Africa "already region's motor; if it could grow faster, would pull its neighbours along.[Further,]obvious country ...to help out with Africa's peacekeeping" .Health, role, future therefore have global influence, so essay takes positive view of massive labour migration(temporary/permanent)into South Africa from all continent. Arguments: (1) migrants' economic/social conditions, though generally bad, and worse than locals' , are better than home, or migration would not continue;(2)indispensable to all southern African economies. Estimates of total illegal migrants in South Africa range 2-8m. Even if closer to 2m, this is major part of work force in country of 46m(almost none bring family). Employers gain lowerwages, harder work and often better education (skilled South Africans of all colours also keen emigrants.)Mines employ 120,000(Mozambique/Lesotho)as more skilled, less militant than locals; farm pay is unattractive to locals. Migrants find more/cheaper goods - many brought home; others come to trade - often exchanging home/local products; others create businesses. Migrants have high HIV rates; take virus home; but also take what seem like fortunes. On balance, African migrants help themselves, hosts, and homes.

The Economist 28 Oct 00 "United Nations and Refugees: Ruud Surprise" (43-4):-Ruud Lubbers, former Dutch PM (82-94),unexpected choice to succeed Mrs. Sadako Ogata as United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Refugee agency, which has annual budget of more than $1b, is most politically active of UN's agencies. [Having played critical, life-saving role in all-too-many wars and humanitariancrises, its] importance will continue, and perhaps expand. Displacement of civilians, once semi-accident of war, has now become one of main goals of warring parties. Worldwide now 14m refugees...and 21m internally displaced people[under UNHCR care]" . Global total unknown but much larger. Priority of refugee over IDP may end, since latter often need more urgent help. Controversial distinction is between( "threatened" )refugees and(up to billions of)economic migrants. Barbara Crossette "Dutch Figure Seen as Choice for U.N. Post With Refugees" NYT 25 Oct 00:-picked up appointment in advance and addedother details. Term is five years(Ogata held for nearly ten),job is viewed as one of most important in UN system, being responsible for staff of about 5,000 working in more than 120 countries. Lubbers, like WHODirector-General, Gro Harlem Brundtland(former PM of Norway)and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson(former president of Ireland), is another high-level political leader added to UNSGAnnan's team of administrators. Reuters "Ogata Says UN Council Is Too Slow And Inflexible" NYT 10 Nov 00:-Sadako Ogata, in farewell speech as UNHCR to Security Council, gave piece of her mind to only body in world on which every government has conferred "primary responsibility for maintenance of international peace and security" (Charter Art.24).Among her criticisms: Nature of war has changed, sincemuch is now civil strife conducted by undisciplined guerrilla armies. "In spite of discussions on wider approaches, peace operations continue to be country-based, and reflect neither internal nor regional nature of many of today's wars." Moreover, Council dispatched peacekeepers far too late to protectuprooted citizens or even UN staff in field[UNHCR has suffered more fatal casualties than any other UN agency]. "We at UNHCR have become used to being called to confront refugee emergencies, literally at few hours' notice. We have no choice: delays in our work inevitably means that lives are lost." Council alsoinflexible in expanding operations across borders to aid trapped refugees(terrible examples of Rwanda-Zaire and East-West Timor).Currently Guinea has requested security aid to help half-a-million trapped refugees in its areas bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone; yet only presence of international community ishumanitarian." Ogata contended that governments are receptive to "ladder of options" to improve local security in refugee-inhabited areas. She also argued gap between short-term aid and development programs too large once emergencies ended.(UNSC going to discuss peacekeeping reforms next day..)Economist 27 Jan 01 "A New Deal For Refugees: Changed Course" (48):-negative report on UNHCR Lubbers' commitments and plans. It notes many maintaining/benefiting from UNHCR operations found his selection process "murky and undemocratic" , suspecting he gained post "along with" orders from major donors to cut organization back. In any event, he announced 24 Jan that budget would drop well below its recent $1b annual level, in hope that funding levels would at least become reliable. He proposes thatmuch UNHCR relief work(giving refugees food, shelter, other services)be assumed by NGOs, WFP,businesses. Lubbers also wants to reverse Ogata's special interest in 25m IDPs, arguing they areresponsibility of "their own governments" (if any).Regarding asylum-seekers, he takes tougher line, however: Europeans(sic) "must take seriously responsibility of giving asylum" .

The Economist 11 Nov 00 "Look, No Pilot: Pilotless Combat Aircraft" (101-2):-testing Boeing X-45A, first example of unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV). Long used for surveillance, unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have never carried weapons, whereas X-45As can carry bombs, decoys or Joint Direct Attack Munitions(smart weapons)plus all most advanced avionics: synthetic-aperture radar/satellite communications equipment. Advantages over manned combat aircraft: lessweight/size(stealth)/cost(build/(re)use/maintain)/training/control; better endurance/transport/ manoeuverability/storage. Initial role: suppress enemy air defence/air superiority. Challenges: controllinglarge numbers in limited airspace; jamming/interception of control signals; target assessment. Future: 90%combat aircraft unmanned by 2025. For peacekeeping, UCAVs offer lower casualties/electronically advanced/combat-capable surveillance of sanctions/ceasefires, long-term standby but quick response, more "international" intervention.

The Economist 18 Nov 00 "Land Warfare: The Shape of the Battle Ahead" (29-33):-probes emotional "air-vs-land" battle over warfare's future nature/weaponry. At issue is whether hi-tech combat(Gulf/Kosovo)has given airpower final advantage in effectiveness trade-off among protection/mobility/firepower. Accelerating pace of technological change is forcing land-warfare experts to defend even old-fashioned virtues of teamwork/leadership/courage, while whole tradition of armoured warfare, hobbled by heavy transport/supply needs, is fighting for its life against long-distance/" stand-off" weapons. Any armour may be penetrated so speed/stealth may be preferable and not all weapons systems need to be manned(11NovEconomist). Such general questions/options form bases for much debate/theory on both sides of Atlantic regarding optimum roles/equipment for ground forces. Yet, no consensus yet developed over real issue: how best to deal with fast-moving target of technological change.

The Economist 03 Feb 01 "Air Terrorism and International Law: The Long Trail Twisting From Lockerbie" (45-6):-Scottish judges unanimously found Libyan intelligence agent guilty of mass murder of 270 people by exploding bomb in Pan American flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 88. Also offersexcellent summary of precedent-setting international trial, and of US-UK options regarding further action against Qaddafi, including removal of UN sanctions on Libya(Doxey 99 & 00 op.cit.).For US attitude/actions towards Qaddafi/Libya, and Qaddafi's attitude towards US, see combined item: Tanter 98 "Rogue Regimes..." and Viorst 99 "The Colonel..." (op.cit.).Several media reports clarify broader implications of Lockerbie trial. Associated Press "U.N. Chief Releases Letter on Bomb" NYT 25 Aug 00:-describes UK-drafted letter from UNSG to Qaddafi, assuring him trial is purely legal and not manipulated political process.AP "Lockerbie Verdict Expected..." NYT 30 Jan 01:-summarizes unusual structure/course of trial. Donald G.McNeil Jr. "Libyan Convicted in Lockerbie Trial" NYT 31 Jan 01:-reports verdict(one defendant found guilty of mass murder, while co-defendant freed for lack of proof),and legal rationale behind it. David Johnston "News Analysis: Courts Are a Limited Anti-Terror Weapon" NYT 01 Feb 01:-comments on relativeeffectiveness of "criminal law as weapon against horrific act of international terror." Greatest limit in case was inability to punish those viewed by many as really responsible: Qaddafi's regime. Some experts argue such national security threats should be dealt with by military force(e.g.Tripoli, Sudan strikes).AP "Gadhafi Fails on Lockerbie Evidence" ;Reuters "Qaddafi Defies West Over Lockerbie Bombing" NYT 05 Feb 01:-both report on Qaddafi's attempt in long speech/press conference to make good his promise to reveal at that time new, "proven evidence that[convicted man]innocent" - "revelations so grand they could drive trial judges to suicide." But he merely read from published reports expressing skepticism about verdict, and then claimed "I refuted whole case, destroyed it." Reuters "Libyan Riot Police Break Up Anti-Britain Protest" NYT 06 Feb 01:-after having been stirred up, demonstrators tried to attack British and UN(sic)officesin Tripoli, and were harshly treated.

The Economist 07 Apr 01 "The Balkans After Milosevic" (23-8):-Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo etc. horrors far enough in past to begin to be studied academically; emphasis on" Serb aggression" , only" Serb atrocities" , Milosevic's alleged drive for" Greater Serbia" ,can be replaced with more informed/objective analyses of all participant motives/actions. This essay on origins/prospects of current situation in former Yugoslaviademonstrates some progress. These extracts try only to show this; they do not summarize whole essay. "As champion of Serbs...Milosevic fanned their flames of war in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo...He fought a war against his fellow nationalist, late Franjo Tudjman of Croatia, and then colluded with him in bid to break up Bosnia...Kosovo...Milosevic's brutal reputation worked to[independence-campaigners' ]tactical advantage; more moderate leadership in Belgrade would have undermined their case...But Milosevic mostly got away with it because he patented and personified style of government which, from practitioners' viewpoint, was rational response to upheaval that followed collapse of communism.[M]any ex-communist leaders found that fanning inter-ethnic passions provided handy way to maintain their grip on economic and political life...Moreover, criminal nationalism on one side of conflict triggers similar phenomenon on other side." Rest of essay deals individually/well with problems of post-Yugoslav states.

The Economist 09 Jun 01 "Mr Bush Goes to Europe" (Edit.9); "Special Report - America and Europe; Wanted: New Rules of the Road" (25-7):-in connection with Bush II's first official visit to Europe(EU/NATO)essays cite many US-European disputes and divergent attitudes(in terms of global perspectives, preoccupations, and images of each other)but conclude common values/interests will overcome. Defence raises genuine differences over US missile defence proposal(with prefix" national" now being downplayed)and its threat to ABM Treaty. Europeans' "worries might recede" if they(and Russia)could be persuaded its sole purpose/use would be against "rogue" regimes. Also" lurking disagreements" overconventional forces: prospect of US redeployments from Europe to Pacific and real effects(on NATO)and motives of EU rapid-reaction force. Trade disputes: chronic, moving into(previously-domestic)regulatoryissues, sometimes bitter and reflecting even cultural differences(GMO). Behind all lie major worries about prospects for new WTO trade round. Serious perceptual problem: if things go badly, both sides" fall back on some surprisingly negative stereotypes.[US]stereotype is of Europe that is economically sclerotic, psychologically neurotic and addicted to spirit-sapping welfare schemes and freedom-infringing state. European stereotype is of gun-slinging, Bible-bashing, Frankenstein-food-guzzling, behemoth-driving, planet-polluting[US]in which politicians are mere playthings of mighty corporations" (25). Most striking, Europeanassessments of Bush himself(prior his visit)were "strongly hostile" though not unprecedented. "More important, structural changes in world politics are driving wedge between Europe and US" .Among Europe's four big powers only Italy's new government shares Bush's conservatism. In terms of security, US and Europe each need other less than in past(even Clinton past). "Upshot of consolidation of Europe has been to tugEurope and America in opposite directions[and to]look at world in increasingly different ways" (26). US looks at Asia and Americas; Europe looks at Europe. Europe is inclined to apply principles of multilateralism;US, and Bush in particular" tend to see world in traditional great-power terms. National interest, diplomatic leadership and protection of military might are what matter. International treaties and global norms merely constrain America's sovereignty" (27). Europeans see this as unilateralism, while Americans often see Europeans as" grandstanding free-riders, willing to lecture America about death penalty but less willing than they should be to spend money to make their troops effective" .[For example of worry that antagonism towards US also helps Europeans define their own identity, Economist cites Kissinger. Up-to-date: Gregg Easterbrook "Europe Builds Itself Up at Bush's Expense" New York Times 17 Jun.] "At this point,transatlantic relationship is at point of divergence[but unique]institutional, economic and cultural ties...set limit to further deterioration" .May be further drift, or revival of transatlantic alliance as "partnership of equals" . Remember how much US and Europe "still have in common, and what they could do together if they put their minds to it" (27).

The Economist 20 Nov 03 "The International Criminal Court: For Us Or Against Us?" :-possibly the most critical editorial of Economist against disgusting US foreign policy in history. "Some 70 countries, representing 40% of world's population, have now signed bilateral agreements with US exempting US citizens - and often their own - from prosecution by ICC. According to John Bolton, US under-secretary for international security, US' s ultimate goal is to conclude such pacts with every country in the world. Court, he complains, runs 'contrary to...basic constitutional principles of popular sovereignty/checks/balancesand national independence.'ICC first permanent international body able to try individuals for war crimes/genocide/crimes against humanity. Set up under 98 Statute of Rome, it has jurisdiction over citizens of countries which have both signed/ratified Rome statute - known as 'state parties' - as well as overthose suspected of committing atrocities on territory of a state party. Court is backed by nearly half world's nations, including all members of European Union and all but one(Turkey)of US' s NATO allies. YetUS arm-twisting of many...closest allies has at times been ferocious. Under US Servicemembers' Protection Act, passed last year, administration threatened to cut all military aid to those countries which had ratified Rome statute, but unwilling to sign bilateral impunity agreements with US. NATO members and certain other allies were exempted. But some NATO candidates were warned that failure to enter into such pacts would put their candidacy at risk. Many third-world countries, heavily dependent on US largesse,scrambled to comply. But others dug in their heels... Bush administration announced suspension of $millions military aid to 35 of ICC's supporters who refused bilaterals. Included Colombia, third-largest recipient of US military aid and one of US' s key partners in its war on drugs, as well as several countriesthat provided troops for war against Iraq. Four, including Colombia, have since had their aid restored after signing...But 31 others face losing further $89m in military aid in fiscal year. [Summary of less 50%.]

The Economist 24 Apr 04 "Israel and the Palestinians: Gaza Isn't the End of It" (Edit.12-4); "Special Report: Has Something Really Changed?" (25-7):-all chronic issues analysed and delays or outcomes discussedoffered with much thoughtful information about current possibilities.[So worth reading, even if your own views differ.]Major point relates to Gaza. "Belligerent" Israeli PM Ariel Sharon's "plan to withdraw unilaterally from Gaza strip, lesser (and grimmer)part of future would-be-independent Palestinian state, seems to be winning backing both of his own Likud party and of most Israelis.[From George Bush]he got just about everything he had hoped for, including annexation of chunks of territory in West Bank" (25)i.e.includes Gaza but not all remainder to Palestinians. Moreover "'Long-term interim agreements' have been favourite ploy of[Sharon:i.e.]making tactical concessions to preserve stalemate in battle against Palestinian nationalism, in hope that Palestinians will eventually give up. On paper... Sharon now accepts idea of two-state solution...But sort of Palestinian state that might emerge if security barrier now being built follows route that digs deep into Palestinian territory would hardly be viable entity that Bush, let alone other involved outsiders, would accept as bare minimum...Bush and Sharon did, however, accept that fence may be temporary" .(26) This is most important subject but items also discuss such tough issues as Palestinian refugees continuing bilateral deaths, Arafat's role, need to re-establish negotiating table, changing views of Arab/European states, and international aid to Palestinians. Related article, "Israel's Nukes: Vanunu's Story" (26), describes chronic Israeli view on having nuclear weapons, reminded by "whistleblower" 's jail release. Economist 03 Jul 04 "Israel and Palestine" (37); ":Who's Winning the Fight?" (38):-items on conflict almost weekly, but these see past, present and future, and predict movement. "[Sharon]may once more push ahead with his plan to leave Gaza, while seeking to consolidate Israel's hold on bigger swathe of West Bank than Palestinians are wont to accept in overall peace package.[US]seems keen to clinch Gaza withdrawal first, then move on later to negotiations over West Bank. No less hopefully, Egyptians ...seem to be going along with that idea too. Jordanians warily approve.[Israel]made it clear that reprisals and incursions could continue before, during and after a withdrawal.[Sharon]would like Egyptians to have degree of control over Palestinians in Gaza, just as he may still hope for similar Jordanian co-operation in West Bank. [A]t least diplomacy is no longer frozen" (37). Other item has chart of Palestinians/Israeli civilians/Israeli forces deathseach month since 2000. Comments: no lack of potential suicide-bomber recruits; ICJ may declare barrier illegal. Economist 14 Aug 04 "Israel's Far Right: Ariel Sharon Is a Sissy" (42); "Israel and Palestine: Blaming Arafat" (73-4):- both items are filled with information about why situation has been long-term chronic mess. First is up to date, but describes some of history, capacities and murder carried out byJewish terrorists. They may try to kill Sharon and/or make movement out of Gaza even more difficult. Second item consists of reviews of two new and well-written books about failure of almost-successful peacemaking. Dennis Ross, The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace(Farrar, Straus and Giroux);and Yossi Beilin, The Path to Geneva: The Quest for a Permanent Agreement, 1996-2004(RDV Books).Both are inclined to see final negative role by Yasser Arafat. Ross book also commented on in detail/ praise by Samuel W.Lewis "The Receding Horizon" Foreign AffairsVol.6/No.5(Sep/Oct 04).Economist 02 Oct 04 "Palestine and Israel: Break That Bloody Stalemate" (Edit.14-5); "Palestine: A Bloody Vacuum" (23-5):-both items offer well-researched information on Palestinians - their recent past, painful present(in Gaza and West Bank)and possible future. Items specifically include thoughtful comments on current and possibly future role of Yasser Arafat, and those who are hoping/liable to replace his central position. Summary of the Special Report is: "Stalemate between Palestinians and Israelis looks total, but internal rows on both sides offer a shred of hope." Economist 23 Oct 04 "Israel's Unlikely Dove" (Edit.11); "Israel and Palestine: Leaving Gaza, Maybe, and To an Uncertain Fate" (22-4):-Summary of Special Report is: "Ariel Sharon's plan to evacuate Jewish settlements from Gaza is causing outrage in Israel and slipping beyond its author's control." Key excerpts:(1) "Sharon's lawyer and adviser says plainly beauty of disengaging from Gaza is that Israel is thereby doing'minimum possible',while removing Palestinian statehood'indefinitely'from its agenda. But however much they mistrust him, Palestinians cannotbe seen to be asking Sharon to prolong any part of occupation. So Palestinian diplomacy now focuses ontrying to connect Israel's Gaza plan to larger questions of statehood and West Bank...Since neither Israel/US will deal directly with Arafat, Palestinians need mediator. Enter, backstage, Omar Suleiman,Egypt's head of intelligence. President Hosni Mubarak has asked [him]to co-operate with both Israelis and Palestinians in order to help Israel leave Gaza, make its leaving consistent with[US]road map, andpersuade Israelis and Americans that Palestinians are indeed reliable partners." (2) "Israel already tackleswith talk of violent opposition, military disobedience and even civil war if Sharon takes on settlermovement without clear mandate from people..Sharon seems..warmed to idea of national referendum -even though this would ensure further delay without ensuring final victory." Summary of Editorial: "The world is entitled to suspect his motives. But Ariel Sharon's plan to leave Gaza still deserves support." Economist 30 Oct 04 "The Palestinians: After Arafat" (Edit.11); "Israel's Withdrawal From Gaza: Round One To the Doves" (51-2); "The Palestinians: Adieu, Arafat?" (52):-inter-related discussions: effects of Yasser Arafat's serious illness(death)& Ariel Sharon's hard political options after winning positive Gaza-withdrawal vote in Knesset. Khalil Shikaki "The Future of Palestine" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.6(Nov/Dec 04):-author Director of Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, and wrote with bothexpertise and concern about Arafat's outdated views before he became ill/died. Varied Palestinian leaders/ personalities/youth, experiences, and groups identified/described, as well as improvable outcome of a Palestinian election if Israel were willing to permit one. Fair election strongly advocated in interest ofsolving crisis with Israel. "Q&A: Henry Siegman on Yasir Arafat" Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 04:-offers interview with CFR director of US/Middle East Project. He said that Abu Mazen, who opposes terrorism, "presents opportunity for resuming Middle East peace talks if Israel and US, both of which refused to negotiate with Arafat, drop their opposition to negotiations aimed at permanent Palestinian-Israelipeace." "Q&A: David Makovsky: Prospects for Middle East Peace" Council on Foreign Relations 15 Dec 04:-offers interview with director of Project on Middle East Peace Process at Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He said "changes in Israel and in Palestinian Authority(PA)opened'windows of opportunity that have not existed for many years' . There is now chance to end violence between the two sides and 'revive trust between Palestinians and Israelis' ." Steven Erlanger "A Modest Proposal: Israel Joining NATO" New York Times 19 Dec 04:-" one of most intriguing[new ideas]is suggestion that Israel...consider joining NATO. Idea, at least, is that closer ties to NATO - and perhaps eventual membership - would embed Israel in West and, by providing security guarantees, give it more confidence to make comprehensive peace...Of course prospect of closer ties with Israel would create debate within NATO, especially in absence of a final Israeli-Palestinian settlement. But first Israel itself needs to talk through military and political pros and cons."

The Economist 15 May 04 "War in Sudan:Don't Forget It" (Edit.10) "Special Report on Sudan: Fleeing the Horsemen Who Kill For Khartoum" (21-3):-reports:(1)cautious agreement about an encouraging but uncertain "comprehensive peace" to end north-south civil war since 1957;(2)bloody/displacing attacksdirected by government against western Darfur region whose newly armed people feared being excluded. North-south war started at Sudan's independence by black non-Moslems living over southern half of largest African state, who sought autonomy from Moslem and Arabic north. War killed 2 million(mostly civilians)and became even more fierce when new Sudan oil concession areas were hugely located in south. Under mostly US pressure/promise, both groups finally agreed on series of agreements and "to share power for six years, after which south will be allowed referendum on whether or not to secede...In west and east of country, regions utterly neglected by state , those who feel left out -in particular, in[black Moslem]Darfur-have taken up arms. Government has evidently determined to crush them with such ferocity that otherSudanese are too scared to follow suit" .Its militia is acting so viciously, it is drawing US anger -and soonUN. Economist 29 May 04 "Sudan: Peace in the South, War in the West" (Edit.14) "Sudan: A Triumph Marred By Terror" (48): bring developments up: Sudan's "government and southern rebels surmounted last obstacles in way of peace. [W]ar between north and south...appear[s]to be over. Proposed transitional government will not be pretty...but war is uglier...In western region of Darfur, government is fighting two black Muslim rebel groups...Some 1.2m [blacks]have been driven from their homes, and perhaps 30,000 killed.[A]id workers predict that between 150,000 and 350,000 people will die in next nine months from hunger and disease if Sudan's government does not stop hindering relief efforts" .Economist 03 Jul 04 "Sudan: Dousing the Frames of Darfur" (Edit.13) "Sudan: The Calamity Continues" (39):continue report: "Actions in Darfur...have created arguably worst humanitarian crisis in world today. Arab-dominated regime Khartoum is fighting revolt there by discontented blacks and has been driving black Darfuris fromsmoking remains of homes. Most of driving is done by mounted militia called janjaweed which governmentarms but pretends not to...USAID predicted...1m might die if help did not come fast" .UNSG Annan and US Secretary of State Powell visited Sudan to threaten government with UNSC sanctions, but offer aidwhen/where can. Economist 31 Jul 04 "Sudan Can't Wait: Genocide in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: The World Notices Darfur" (39-40):both describe international details US and Britain in particular are facing when tryingto end terrible action by janjaweed actions against people of Darfur, and serious food absence for millions. Third Darfur item, "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40),has Summary in sections due to future relevance of legality UN action/inaction. Economist 28 Aug 04 "Sudan: Crunch Time in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: Decision Time in Sudan" (39-40) "Darfur's Rebels: No Angels" (40):-there have been frequent/appalling Editorials/articles in past months, but trio is worth reading even if you do not want to scan them all. It contains a large amount of new information on complexities of this situation. Unfortunately much could be relevant to other African/Arab/illogical states and UN delay in crisis. Economist11 Dec 04 "Southern Sudan: The Refugees Prepare To Return Home" (45):-as noted in May items, slownorth-south peace negotiations continued/maybe ended, while western genocide continued, despitesmall/slow intervention in Darfur by African troops. South now seems prepared for peace/important resettlement takes place/is described.

The Economist 22 May 04 "Suicide Bombers: Shireen and Others Like Her" (76-7):-article is dedicated to analysing what drives suicide bombers "to their ghastly deeds" . It consists of the reviews of three books: Christoph Reuter, My Life is a Weapon: A Modern History of Suicide Bombing (Princeton Univ. Press), 200pp, $24.95; Barbara Victor, Army of Roses: Inside the World of Palestinian Women Suicide Bombers(Rodale Press), 320 pp, $25.95; and John Fullerton, Give Me Death (Macmillan), 352 pp, 16.99 pounds.

The Economist 29 May 04 "Haiti: Misery Upon Misery" (35-6):-another tragedy has hit poorest country in Americas. Torrential rains smashed a border region between Dominican Republic and Haiti," unleashing floods and devastating mudslides" . About 2,000 people were reported killed, half in one Haitian town alone. Meanwhile 8m Haitians already under some control by multi-national forces, attracted by a political revolt but soon replaced by a formal UN peacekeeping force. Transitional government of technocrats is alreadyheaded by a former UN official - and that raises increasing global needs for UN to run nations collapsed "out of control" . Here are Haiti excerpts: " [State has]no army...and a small and ill-armed policeforce...For most Haitians, life is all about survival. Two-thirds of them lack a proper job. The price of ricehas almost doubled since January. Mountains of rubbish have piled up in the streets. In Port-au-Prince, there is no water and almost no electricity for those who cannot afford generators. Good roads exist onlyin the memory of those old enough to remember better days. Estimates of the cost of the looting anddestruction of property in February[revolt]range[$100-300m]. Public services collapsed. That was a body blow to an economy already wounded by years of mismanagement, general instability, a UN embargo in the early 1990s and a suspension of foreign aid after 2000. The only growth business has been thetracking of Colombian cocaine...A readier source of cash[than aid]is the $1billion that the Haitians livingabroad send back home each year. That amounts to three times the country's exports or the government'sbudget. Most of this money is spent on foods and clothes. It helps to pay for survival, not reconstruction. Haitians are growing angry over rising food prices[,but]Haiti's failures are rooted in its history[and]also in its social and racial divisions" .

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Amorphous But Alive" (42-3):-since 11 Sep 01 "al-Qaeda [attacks] killed more than 1,000 people in more than a dozen countries. [E]xpert on group 'reckons that Mr. bin Laden is closer to achieving his goals than the West is to deterring him'.[IISS institute claims]only way to'depress recruitment and motivation'... would be to find 'currently elusive'solutions to messes such asIraq and Palestine. It guesses that 18,000-odd people, who were trained in terrorist tactics by[Afghan]Talibanregime...but escaped...may be...ready to help al-Qaeda" . Not including Iraq, US State claims fewer terrorist incidents in 2003 than for decades, and that coordinated police took "more than 3,400 suspected al-Qaeda people out of action, including two-thirds of [its] leaders" .But "[W]orld's security specialists are almost unanimously gloomy. They say it is no longer a question of if but when al-Qaeda will hit a western city again. Many expect it to explode a 'dirty bomb'- a device that scatters radioactive material. [It] has simply been forced to change its structure and tactics. For reasons of logistics and security, Mr. bin Laden nowappears to act mainly as a figurehead, ceding operational control to his chief lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri" . Preceding this: "Saudi Arabia: Why Terrorists are Targeting Islam's Holiest Land" (41-2). In Economist 26 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Setbacks for Terror" (49-52), tactical update on some Muslim governments' successes against serious jihadi terrorists. In Riyadh, Saudi police were able to kill four of country's most wanted terrorists, including al-Qaeda's local head, and netted further dozen suspects. Algerian army cornered al-Qaeda-loyal cell and killed seven guerrillas, of which four were identified senior leaders including group's commander. "In Bahrein and Morocco, police claimed to have rounded up two local jihadi cells. InPakistan... missile fired from helicopter killed Pushtun tribal leader known to have succoured al-Qaedafugitives. But if jihadi are down, they are certainly not out...al-Qaeda will soon strike back, if only to proveit is still punching" . Economist 14 Aug 04 "Chasing al-Qaeda: Plots, Alarms and Arrests" (22-4):-description of US "orange warning" due to "high risk" of terrorist attack on several institutions. "Though based on new-found intelligence, threat to US financial establishments was not new.[C]ache of al-Qaeda computer files...at least three years old." While large scale and immediate defence of reported targets was felt inappropriate by many, practice may be useful and political experience. "Such lessons will probably take another terrorist threat or two to master, but mastered they may eventually have to be. Because, as most al-Qaeda watchers agree, quick end to war on terror is very hard to envisage." Currentlimitations/inclinations of al-Qaeda, and activities of its opponents, discussed at some length.

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Cuba: Hoping For a Transport Revolution" (36):- "Deep-water oil rig...moving into position...off Cuba's north-west coast to sink two wildcat wells in...Gulf of Mexico waters. Successcould turn Cuba into an oil exporter, transforming the economic outlook for Fidel Castro's bankrupt Communist regime" . In 1970s Cuba, Mexico and US shared the Gulf before deep-water oil could be taken;US oil industry might now throw its weight "behind[multiple]moves to abandon the trade embargo" . Canadianand Spanish firms have signed Cuban exploration agreements; others are watching. Cuban output of oil and gas now is 75,000bpd so fuel/energy are conserved and transport scarce. "Many experts say there is lotsof oil under Cuba's Gulf waters, as under those of Mexico and US...Any commercially viable deposit wouldtake five years and $1.5 billion to develop...An offshore oil strike would allow...Castro to offer Cubansand the country's creditors some relief after 15 years of penury" .

The Economist 19 Jun 04 "AIDS in Haiti: H For Hope" (39):-in encouraging contrast to nation's terrible political and economic situations, it has pretty good record in tackling HIV/AIDS -reversal of disaster which hit Haiti both hard and early. In 1980s, with little knowledge, "HIV was associated with four Hs:haemophiliacs, homosexuals, heroin addicts and Haitians. By 1993, over 6% of adult Haitians were thought to be infected - highest rate outside Africa. AIDS is the leading cause of death in the country, killing about 30,000 people a year, and it has orphaned 200,000 children" . However, over last decade, proportion of adults with HIV/AIDS may have halved, and 2,000 people now receive anti-retroviral drugs. In five years maybe 25,000 get drugs. Meanwhile 75% know how virus is transmitted and condoms are more widely used. Substantial funds are received and honestly spent; apparent success" stems mainly from close partnership between government, private donors and charities" . UN peacekeepers also cared for. Relativelysuccessful handling of very poor and heavily diseased state hints at repeating lessons elsewhere.

The Economist 10 Jul 04 "Japan's Foreign Policy: From Pacifism to Populism" (Special Report 20-2):-analyses future of second-biggest, but most constitutionally-pacified, global power: "As Japan begins to stretch its long-unused military muscles, how far does it want to go and what can it do?" Both PM Junichiro Koizumi's innovation and increased international threats concerning Japanese people, producedchanging attitude. "Soon after 2001 attack [when Japan sank North Korean spy ship,]parliament passedspecial law authorizing ships from Maritime SDF[Self Defence Force]to help US fleet in Indian Ocean. Law restricted co-operation to refuelling and logistics, but Japan's navy, in effect, provided rear support for[Afghan]invasion...Last summer, parliament passed laws spelling out government's powers in event of attack on Japan's territory.[P]acifist nervousness had prevented enactment before.[PM]had also called for changes to constitution, including pacifist restrictions in Article 9.[B]ecause Asia is less coherent than European Union, Japan's regional role is in some ways even more important to US[whose] 45,000 troopsin Japan, and related air and naval bases,...allow US to project strength across region littered with potential hotspots.[A]lliance will grow more flexible and useful[,although critics]both in and around Japan...detect signs of resurgent right wing, and fear return of Japanese militarism.[Y]et Koizumi's eagerness[does not]imply sinister swing to far right. His foreign policies reflect clear and reasonable national interests and draw support from broad Japanese public, which shows little desire to remilitariseand start strong-arming neighbours...Voters do seem...dismayed...to include Japanese troops in new multinational force in Iraq...endorsed by UN.[P]ublic reaction does not appear to reflect attitudes towards deployment, since mission[now rebuilding quiet Iraqi town]will not change...Japan's conduct of foreign policyis arguably growing more democratic[,although in]1992 parliament passed law allowing SDF to ventureabroad as long as...part of UN mission,..when a ceasefire is in place, and when all parties to conflict agree that Japan can take part" .North Korean threats, including lobbing" medium-range Taepodong missile in 1998...over Japanese airspace into Pacific Ocean" ,have recently justified counter-action, but "most sensible way for Japan to gain influence is to start putting its substantial military resources...to work multilaterally.[Yet as great trader, it] wants to stay on good terms with as many countries as possible." Michael W. Donnelly "The Politics of Uncertainty in Japan" Behind the Headlines Vol.61/No.3(Sep. 04):-complements usefully the above item by describing those aspects of Japan's traditional society thatshould be modified, but may not be, even under relatively radical Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Parts of essay address important issues: Politics and Growing Economic Insecurity; Post-Bubble Blues; PartialEconomic Reform in Uncertain Times; Nascent Signs of Private-Sector-Led Economic Recovery; Emergence of New Forms of Governance; Military Security and Growing Public Anxiety. Conclusion ends: "How Japan continues to evolve will depend partly on political commitment and leadership of PM Koizumi. It is all but certain Japan will not move dramatically closer to liberal market economies like those of US/Canada. Less clear how much further Japan will move toward becoming'normal'state with respect to military security/diplomatic independence. In meantime, uncertainty marks the daily lives of Japanese."

The Economist 24 Jul 04 "Russia's Armed Forces: Heads Roll At Long Last" (48-9):-excessive cost ofUSSR armed forces - in attempt to match US as superpower - played critical role in bringing end to Cold War. Yet their gradual and reluctant, but vast financial, constraint had dangerous effects on intricate weapons, disarmament, and personnel - and gained US safety assistance. Some long-overdue actions havenow taken place, and may have positive impact. "Anatoly Kvashnin, Russian armed forces' chief of staffwho was fired...had spent most of his seven years in job in conflict with people meant to be his bosses[,civilian defence ministers. He]had blocked President Vladimir Putin's attempts to start transition fromconstrict army to leaner, professional one. But his civilian opponents outmanoeuvred him...when Duma passed law handing operational control of army to defence ministry and leaving generals in charge only of strategy.[R]umours of...dismissal began;...he asked to go." His reactionary acts had included: seizure ofKosovo airport during war; chronically sour relations with NATO; world view/threats as if Cold War had barely ended;" ran impressive exercises designed to repulse massive invasions from east and west" ; losses in Chechnya issue." [R]eplacement Yuri Baluyevsky seen as opponent of his mercurial, stubborn ex-boss; more desk man, strategist and military historian, who watches his words, stays out of politics and pragmaticabout co-operating with former foes. He has led disarmament talks and parleyed with NATO.[A]lso joint author of reform plans, which would slim ministry and military command. But what next?" Clean armed forcescorruption? Create volunteer army?

The Economist 24 Jul 04 "The United Nations: A Winning Recipe For Reform?" (45-6):-UN Security Councilwas set up in 45 as small, mainly key-victors' , group intended to decide/implement means ofcreating/ensuring world peace. Fundamental Western/democratic and USSR-dominating/communistgroups, with vetos, maintained such confrontation of each other that UNSC could almost never play role until end of Cold War. Meanwhile powerful war-losers and major postwar poor nations sought greaterUNSC roles too. "Kofi Annan, UNSG, set up'high-level panel of eminent personalities' to assess UN's rolein dealing with new global threats.[Interim report]appeared near agreement on one of most intractable issues..-composition of powerful decision-making body, UNSC.[E]veryone is agreed that if UNSC decisionsare to have greater political clout, they must be given greater legitimacy. [D]iscussion ...showed an 'overwhelming consensus' on proposals for expanded 24-member UNSC of 3 tiers: existing permanent 5(China, France, Russia, UK and US); second tier of 7 or 8 potentially semi-permanent members elected onregional basis for renewable term of 4 or 5 years(Brazil, Germany, India, Japan and South Africa might be in this group); and third tier of rotating regional members elected, as at present, for non-renewable 2-year term. Only permanent 5 would have veto...UNSC membership is supposed to be based not just on regional diversity, but also on members' willingness to contribute to world peace and security. But over years, many countries have ignored second criterion. Now panel want to reinforce it, particularly as basis on which thoseaspiring to second tier of membership should be judged. It suggests full review, after 12-15 years, of all members' contributions to work of UN, including its peacekeeping missions' manpower and financing. Panel has divided rest of its work into 6'baskets' : classic inter-state conflict; internal violence, includinggenocide; social and economic threats, such as poverty and disease; weapons of mass destruction;terrorism; and organized crime and corruption. Group decided early on to abandon any distinctionbetween'hard'threats, which worry rich world most, and'soft'threats, of greater concern to rest of humanity.Both, it agreed, were inextricably linked. Most difficult question has been how to deal with pre-emptive or preventive attacks, as on Iraq.[I]t recommends more active role for UNSC, under which it could authorise preventive use of force, but only after'serious and sober assessment'of threat based on'clear and compelling evidence'.[A]ppears also to have won consensus on humanitarian intervention.[P]anel hasalready confounded its critics with boldness of its proposals. It may do so again."

The Economist 31 Jul 04 "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40):-brief, usefully stated, item on whether/how world community could intervene in Darfur, west Sudan, where black Muslims attacked with authority of Arab Khartoum. Legal/political complications are well described, and unfortunately will be facing(or ignored by)global justice, perhaps for decades. "Under UN Convention on Genocide 1948, state signatories undertook to'prevent and punish'genocide[carefully defined].States may act alone or call on UN to take'appropriate'measures...Though Sudanese Arab militias have been targetingthree black African tribes, some Arab groups have also been attacked and some African ones spared. US Congress has called attacks genocide...African Union and various human-rights groups argue that threshold for genocide has not yet been crossed. It may not matter much, for under international law, there is no inherent right of armed humanitarian intervention, even to stop genocide. UN Charter only sanctions force in self-defence(Article 51)or when authorised by Security Council to prevent breach of peace or act of aggression(Chapter VII). It specifically forbids intervention'in matters which are essentially within domestic jurisdiction of any state',though this injunction can be overridden by Chapter VII authorisation...UN has, of course, intervened in past to stop gross violations of human rights...But it has only ever done so under Chapter VII in name of preserving peace." Darfur military intervention would draw vetos(as would have Kosovo). "Many governments, particularly poor and despotic ones, argue that national sovereignty should always trump humanitarian issues. Most western ones argue opposite. One way round possible veto would be to invoke UN'uniting for peace'resolution...UNGA may'recommend'measures, including use of force, tocounter threat to peace, if UNSC unable to act. But many reluctant to invoke instrument that they fear wouldundermine UNSC authority." Chad vital role in location uncertain. Without going through UN "need not beas drastic assault on international law as some legal sticklers fear.[I]ntervention could be justified with reference to NATO's campaign in Kosovo, which proceeded without UN approval. That might even set useful precedent for dealing with future catastrophes." [I would object to last.]

The Economist 07 Aug 04 "Arab Foreign Policy: Always Prickly, Sometimes Paranoid, Occasionally Pragmatic" (37-8); "Palestine: Who's In Charge?" (38); "Morocco: The Slow March To Reform" (38-9); "Iraq's Christians: Less Safe Than Before?" (39):-first report analyses outstandingly how Arab governments/peoples deal with outside world and each other; the three other reports on national Arab states provide interesting descriptions of how different attitudes/prejudices within nations delay theirprogress. Here are some top examples. Arabs find it hard to act together to solve region's manifoldproblems. Suspicion of US runs deep in Arab world and can generate strong misinterpretations of events. "Many Arab governments would sincerely like to help heal festering regional sores such as mayhem in Iraq and misery in Palestine and Darfur. Not only would this reduce risk of infection, it would also improve strained relations with superpower. But popular distrust of western, and particularly US, motives keeps getting in way." Describes how/why proposal for Islamic force in Iraq collapsed. "Arab response to Darfur crisis has been similarly