CONFLICT: PREVENTION; PEACEMAKING, STATE-(RE)BUILDING
from

Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

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by Christopher Spencer
Former Senior Advisor International Organizations,
Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Updated: 08 OCT 11


Francis Kofi Abiew & Tom Keating "Outside Agents and the Politics of Peacebuilding and Reconciliation" International Journal Vol.LV/No.1(Winter 99-00):-discusses new policy towards, often mixed experience with peacebuilding. Recent global trends:(1)major increase in intra-state violence;(2)multilateral emphasis on individual human rights/security, and hence humanitarian interventions. "In this context...peacebuilding emerged as central part of what rest of world to offer to divided societies" i.e. not just hostilities end but all necessary for sustainable peace. Yet past problems/ limitations demand careful look at practicality/suitability/ethics of outside intervention in support of peace building in divided societies. Analyse various motivations behind such intervention; then objectives: not just peace but also market democracy/ "politics of reconciliation." Unhappy(Canadian)experience in Haiti dissected to draw lessons.


Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.


Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.


James Adams The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location (e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]


AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION

John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule" (Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether - in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While]Millennium African Renaissance Programme[made South Africa's president Mbeki call firstfor]'critical examination of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done differently'" ,editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt Africanregimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA article stressesincreased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which received about 1b poundsin bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on peacekeeping. Business item notes although,when South Africa's present rulers still rebels threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with attempts to create new class of black businessmen" .Survey's analyses, whileconcentrating on South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2) apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world country...Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses: (1)Land(Re)Distribution: with apartheid,white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education: takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatensnot just South Africans' security but very basis of their society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from 60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, butracial gaps are probably diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination; (6)Employment and Investment: both face major shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution"; "only 40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation Commission provided neither, butoffered "day in court" ;(8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000 whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those staying generally do not suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Coloureds complain they are "not black enough" ; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.


Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign AffairsVol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN USG for Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Afghanistan and Iraq. Providesanalysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three draw"attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction, authors belie inherent complexities of task...Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/maintained. Yet none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations."Essay is worth reading - as a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.


AIDS: THIRD WORLD: COST-PATENT DILEMMA; GLOBAL ASSISTANCE

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach the material dealing with all media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.


Fouad Ajami"The Ways of Syria: Statis in Damascus"(153-158)Foreign AffairsVol.88/No.3 (May/Jun 09):-Review Essay of Itamar Ravinovich: The View From Damascus: State, Political Community, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria(Vallentine Mitchell 08, 365pp. $49.95). Official summary:"As Washington [and Israel?] consider[s] a rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad's Syria, Itamar Ravinovich's commanding new book makes clear that change will not come quickly or easily - and, if the past is any indication, it may not come at all". Selected emphatic extract:"A big... book of history and diplomacy by the Israeli scholar takes readers deep into the world of the Syrian state - and into that mix of pride and injury that has shaped its modern history. [He] tracks the twists and turns of Syria's political journey in recent decades, its transformation from the plaything of outside powers into a player of consequence in the Levant. No other writer has dug as deep into such material as [author] has in this book, a distillation of a lifetime of concern with the ways of Syria". Ajami: Professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ School of Advanced International Studies and Adjunct Research Fellow at Hoover Institution.

John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/religiousbodies/groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning".


Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.


Mark Almond, Europe's Backyard War: The War in the Balkans(London: Heinemann 94):-combination of background information on post-Yugoslav conflicts and military/political conduct to publication date. Highly critical of diplomatic actions of virtually all involved, including most Yugoslav groups, UN and European bodies. Gives prescient warning of ominous precedent set by failure in Balkans.


Chris Anderson"The Young(stressing Youth and Age)"The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explorescauses/ elements/ global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing down of traditional...order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace ofchange(technological/social)favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; riskfutures; prefer opportunity to wealth/ security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth's growing role/impact in decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge]Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow; increasingly they are leaders of today" .

 

Scott Anderson "The Curse Of Blood and Vengeance" New York Times 26 Dec 99:-recounts personal study of tradition of village violence in northern Albania. Most valuable, however, is 20-year Balkan veteran's main aim: to test his view of origin of recent terrible ethnic blood-letting. Like most careful observers,denies "Balkans singularly riven by centuries-old ethnic and religious hatreds." Longer-term history, traditional inter-habitation ethnic groups, high levels of intermarriage in cosmopolitan cities, disprove this. Believes tendency to violence reflects continuation of urban-rural "gulf of experience...awful chasm...Typical Balkan village...has always been hard and pitiless place, where change and outside influence deeply mistrusted[and society follows]medieval code of honor and loyalty" . Vividly describes Balkan village codes/violent means of enforcement, filled with "murderous cycle(s) of vengeance" . Ethnic cleansing ordered(Milosevic/Tudjman)and carried out notably by men from villages and small towns.


Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" . These aims have already been attempted in peacemaking.


Kofi A.Annan "Peacekeeping, Military Intervention, and National Sovereignty in Internal Armed Conflict" in Jonathan Moore edit. Hard Choices: Moral Dilemmas in Humanitarian Intervention(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98)(for book see Moore op.cit.):-UNSG notes how UN operations forced to change radically since end of Cold War. One change been UN involvement in internal armed conflicts. "Often do not lend themselves to traditional peacekeeping treatment," requiring difficult coordinated political, military, andhumanitarian response. Meanwhile "understanding of sovereignty undergoing significant transformation" : "matter of responsibility, not just power." "[M]ust not be allowed to obstruct effective action to address problems that transcend borders or to secure human dignity." Author then provides illustrations, drawing mainly on UN role in Bosnia.


Kofi A. Annan, "Two Concerns of Sovereignty: International Intervention in Humanitarian Crises" The Economist18 Sep 99(49-50):-UNSG gives his views on basic issues. Inaction in Rwanda and interventions in Kosovo(no authority) and East Timor(too little too late)all justify criticism. We need consensus "not only... that massive and systematic violations of human rights must be checked...but also on ways of deciding what action is necessary, and when, and by whom." Critical points: "intervention" should not be understood as referring only to use of force; we need redefinition of sovereignty and broader definition of national interests that "would induce states to find greater unity in pursuit of common goals and values...today,collective interest is national interest" ;if force is necessary, Council must uphold Charter; act "in defence of our common humanity" ;ceasefires do not end commitments.


Kofi A. Annan, "Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global efforts to foresee, prevent, or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN activities over year to Sep 99, and selected plans and problems(in 130pp). Chapters address: peace and security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights; administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN obligations/reforms/ savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial irresponsibility. On CONFLICT PREVENTION, PEACEMAKING, STATE-(RE)BUILDING, Annan's essay stresses the advantages of a culture of prevention since taking a few relatively cheap monitoring and preventive actions, wherever and whenever conflict or natural disaster seem most likely, effectively ensures immense savings in lives and money for all. He also stresses long-term democratic/development strategies as having multiple payoffs and notes that peacemaking is easier if early and low-key. Elsewhere he strongly supports post-conflict peace-building and describes many cases of current success.


Kofi A. Annan, "UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world" .[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/ technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]


Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).


Kofi A. Annan, "Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep 99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress and challenges at turn of millennium,and suggests ways in which international community can work together to" better lives of people still left behind" .Introduction, summarizing 130-page report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources. (5)Reviewsanalysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6) controversial economicbenefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared. (7)Must be cooperative management ofglobal economic affairs through more effective governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions, civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/Security; Humanitarian Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UNManagement.


Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit disease treatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New isrange/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/ disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichmentand urged to voluntary time-limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitorcompliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiationsince 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hastenefforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to givestrategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/ pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/othercomparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/ UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole;not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.


"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.


John Arquilla & David Ronfeldt, edit., In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age(Santa Monica: RAND, 1997):-while addressed to US concerns, issues raised are global. Included are: thenew world epoch of conflict will revolve around knowledge; the information revolution, being both organizational and technological, empowers small, non-state, networked actors vis-a-vis hierarchies(i.e. states); threats are diffused, nonlinear and complex; conflict tends militarily towards "cyberwar" , sociallyto diverse but comprehensive "netwar" ; new trends are found in: state, business, and NGO roles,information warfare, global crime and terrorist capacity. Information on balance promotes peace. All these developments affect the UN role in maintaining peace and security.


Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. The Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).


Associated Press, "UN Council Endorses Gun Control" New York Times 24 Sep 99:-on 24 Sep Security Council unanimously endorsed report by SG Annan on ways to reduce global stock of 500m handguns, rifles, shotguns and assault weapons. "Sweeping gun-control measures" reportedly included ban on private ownership of assault rifles presumably in wording US could accept. Nevertheless purpose of action while not binding, is "to increase pressure on world governments to impose stricter gun control measures and reduce arms trade." Significant, with 200m+ firearms owned by US citizens, that Annan stated clearly: "easyavailability of small arms has in many cases contributed to violence..." US Secretary of State apparently only spoke of tightening international/illicit arms traffic. Over 3m, mostly civilians, have been killed since 89in conflicts fought with only small arms.


Associated Press, "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" in New York Times 12 Jan 00:- article deals with a real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal. Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross the earth's orbit. This number produces about a 1% chance of one hitting the earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material believed left over from the formation of the solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of a mile to six miles, they are big enough to "wreak global disaster" . NASA has just lowered the estimated numberof such killers to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within the next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able to destroy cities. Britain has just set up a risk assessment committee. AP, "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" in NYT 18 Sep 00:-the committee mentioned above is reported to have urged the British government to seek international partners to fund a powerful new telescopeto be stationed in the southern hemisphere and governments should launch joint studies to assess how to destroy an object on a collision course with the planet. The committee estimated that a "wide object" crashes into our planet every 10,000 years with the force of a 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a little[money]into making certain we know if there is a danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet" .


Associated Press, "Number of Refugees Grows Worldwide" New York Times 13 Jun 00:-World Refugee Survey 2000, issued by prestigious US Committee for Refugees, claims that at end of 20th Century there were35m people worldwide "uprooted and in need of protection." Conflict contributed 7m to this in 99 alone, and despite UN success in ending some long-term disputes following end of Cold War, this estimated total had risen from 29m in 90. Moreover, of these, 13.7m are found in Africa(4.4m in Sudan alone).Another trend has been continually growing number of refugees that for various reasons remain in their own countries:Internally Displaced Persons. Identified IDPs now number at least 4m, and clearly demand higher priority from UN-UNHCR since they are not afforded same legal protections and care as" international" refugeesunder Geneva Conventions. On other hand, there is hope that some sources of refugees and IDPs may bein sight of permanent solution. Elizabeth Rosenthal, "Famine in North Korea Creates Steady Human Flow into China" NYT 10 Jun:-report on motives and stratagems of North Korean refugees within/outside their country. Any moves towards Korean reconciliation could have major and rapid effect on this crisis. For evenlonger-term look at issue of unwilling migration, AP reports "Conference Addresses Migration" NYT 10 Jun:-experts Paris meeting organized by Universal Academy of Cultures concluded "globalization demands greater moral responsibility and intervening in sovereign nations is plausible response to misery that drives populations beyond their borders." Those seeking political asylum increased from 250,000 in 87 to 900,000 in 92, but then declined to 388,000 in 98,perhaps reflecting growing influence of such perceptionin UN. Meanwhile, if Europe's population falls 100m by 50, migration waves may become beneficial.


Associated Press, "Activists Seek Cluster Bomb Ban" New York Times 08 Aug 00:-British arm of International Campaign to Ban Land Mines has called for global moratorium on use, manufacture and sale of cluster bombs, pending in-depth review of their legality and impact. While designed to scatter immediately-exploding "bomblets" over large area, significant numbers of bomblets fail to explode on first impact; so effectively become land mines. By causing civilian casualties for years after hostilities end, charged their use is "indiscriminate and in clear breach of international humanitarian law." Group calls for laws requiring clearance after combat, compensation of civilian casualties and deployment records.Reuters, "UK Anti-Land Mine Group Seeks Ban on Cluster Bombs" NYT 8 Aug :- gives similar facts, but adds bomblets can blight farmland, impede economic recovery, grow in lethality over time.


Associated Press "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"New York Times 16 Nov 05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader, and terrorism is flaring upall over the region. But at US' s major Asian outposts, some serious downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its32,500-strong force in Korea over next 3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand overmajor elements of troops' mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000US troops are stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa... Ananalyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea in line with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops. Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing... Under new accord... Japan will defend itself, deal with such threats as ballistic missilesand commando attacks and invasion of its own islands. US will deploy latest missile defense radar".


Associated Press"Maritime Authorities OK Tracking Measure"New York Times 19 May 06:-"Maritime authorities have agreed upon new legislation that will allow for long-range tracking of merchant ships - a key measure in tackling the threat of seaborne terrorist attacks, the UN International Maritime Organization said [19 May]. A total of 166 countries have agreed to the new rules for merchant vessels, which would also allow countries to conduct surveillance on vessels suspected of carrying illicit cargo.Organization said signatory governments had provisionally agreed to the changes in the Safety of Life at Sea convention... 'Ships will be required to transmit their identity, location and date and time of theirposition to be tracked by satellite', said UN shipping agency's external relations officer... New legislation will mean a ship's position can be identified up to 1,000 nautical miles from shore. Current systems arelimited to a range of a few hundred nautical miles... Merchant vessels trading in international waters willneed to switch to new long-range system by Jan 08, offering maritime authorities a system similar tothat used by air traffic controllers";


Associated Press "U.S. Says Missile - Defense System Limited" New York Times 22 Jun 06:- "US said [22 Jun] missile-defense system under development has 'limited operational capability'to protect against weapons such as the long-range missile North Korea is said to be near firing. National Security AdviserStephen Hadley underscored US calls for North Korea to abandon any plans for testing the missile believed capable of reaching US soil. 'We're watching it very carefully and preparations are very far along', Hadley said... In Washington, a top Pentagon official said that a missile launch would be 'aprovocation and a dangerous action'that would lead US to impose 'some cost'on North Korea. [Tough UNSC resolution was later passed after a short flight by Taepodong-2 missile.] Hadley, who briefed reporters while traveling with President Bush in Europe[to G8 summit],.. spurned a suggestion by former Defense Secretary William Perry that US launch a pre-emptive strike against the North Korean missile...US has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on missile defense systems during the past few decades.'We have a missile defense system... what we call a long-range missile defense system that is basicallya research, development, training, test kind of system', Hadley said. 'It does... have some limited operational capability. [P]urpose, of course, of a missile defense system is to defend... the territory of US from attack'" . AP "U.S. Military Intercepts Missile in Test" "A Navy ship on [22 Jun] intercepted amedium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program, the military said. Missile Defense Agency said test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. USS Shiloh detected a medium-range missile after it was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, then fired a Standard Missile-3 interceptor. Interceptor shot down the target warhead after it separated from its rocket booster, more than 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 250 miles northwest of Kauai, the agency said in a statement. The test marked the seventh time in eight attempts the military has successfully shot down a missile target with an interceptor fired from a ship.It also was the second successful attempt by a ship to shoot down a separating target. Medium- andlong-range ballistic missiles typically have at least two stages, increasing the challenge for interceptors,which must distinguish between the body of the missile and the warhead... Japan agreed to jointly develop missile defense technology with US late last year, broadening an earlier bilateral research pact" .


Associated Press "North Korea Knows How to Get Attention" New York Times 08 Jul 06:- "North Korea is well practiced in getting some of what it wants through provocation. Bullying through a bullhorn has worked time and again for a small nation with an outsized military force and an even bigger capacity forbluster and threat. It's called coercive diplomacy. North Korean-style, it has involved antagonizing everyone on and over the horizon, foes and allies alike, and then pulling back. Sometimes just in the nick of time... That's the case now... 'When diplomacy is stalled, North escalates tension to break thedeadlock', Wonhyuk Lim, Brookings Institution fellow,.. says in analysis... Risk is that North's attention-grabbing actions may bring bombs in reprisal instead of diplomacy, as almost happened in Clinton [era].In 2003, North pulled out of a nuclear arms treaty, vowing to bring 'defeat and ruin'on US, warning of WWIII and declaring, 'Let us see who will win and who will be defeated in the fire-to-fire standoff'. This was followed by the first substantive talks between the two nations since President Bush came to office.As a propaganda gambit, the missile tests [04 Jul 06] were hardly a smashing success... North's starlong-range missile is said to have failed like a bum firecracker on its mission of defiance and military advancement. Half-dozen tests of shorter range missiles were conducted to uncertain effect, but no failures as far as known. Results, in short, spoke to North's apparent ability to wreak havoc in its region and its inability any time soon to reach US mainland with missile. For US, 'main risk seems to be that North is beginning early testing of a missile that could throw equivalent of a rock at Alaska', said AnthonyCordesman of Center for Strategic and International Studies. Yet North has massive combat forces on border with South; long-range artillery capable of reaching Japan and destroying up to 40% of Southeconomy; and huge stocks of chemical weapons as well as its rising nuclear weapons capability. [North]fields world's fifth largest army, behind China, US, Russia and India. It is considered no match in any protracted fight with South Korea's lethal modern forces, US' s unmatched power or a devastating combination of both. Still any conflict could bring horrific consequences to both sides and risk pittingChina against US [like 1950-53 Korean War?].Cordesman protests tendency to regard Kim Jong Il as areckless poseur without a purpose. 'North... has reminded everyone of just how serious a threat Northcan be, how limited most military options are, and how serious the risks of any major war would be',Cordesman said. North's declaration in 1993 that it would pull out of NPT brought peninsula close to war and isolated the country through international censure, in the process leading to breakthroughnegotiations with Washington that produced agreement to freeze North's nuclear activities in exchange for US energy assistance. North's first test of a multistage rocket in 1998, also a flop, spurred bilateraltalks. Current framework of six-nation negotiations set up after North resumed its plutonium program in 2002 and expelled international inspectors [IAEA]. That pattern of edging toward confrontation, then edging back, has persisted, always accompanied by tough words. More are being heard now" .


Associated Press "Rumsfeld Cautions on Missile Shield" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "[US] Defense Secretary Donald H.Rumsfeld sounded a note of caution about expectations that interceptors poised in underground silos [in Fort Greely, Alaska] would work in the event of a missile attack by North Korea...Ten silos house single 54-foot-long missile interceptors. If ordered by [US] president,.. one or more ofthe rockets would blast into the sky and race at more than 18,000 mph to launch a small 'kill vehicle'atan enemy warhead as it soared through space. An 11th interceptor is to be installed. [Asked whether ready for use against a North Korean missile,] Rumsfeld said he would not be fully persuaded until themultibillion dollar defense system has undergone more complete and realistic testing. [He said] some elements of the missile defense system are yet to come on line, including some of the radars and other sensors used to track the target missile,.. but stressed that advisors... have told him they believe it will work as designed in the event of an actual missile attack. [On 31 Aug] an interceptor based at a second site [in California] is scheduled to be tested against a target missile launched into the Pacific from Alaska's Kodiak Island. That will be the first full-up test of the latest version of the interceptor and its 'kill vehicle', a device attached to the nose of the interceptor. [T]he 'kill vehicle'is designed to use its own propulsion system and optical sensors to lock onto its target and, by ramming into it at high speed,obliterate the warhead and any payload it might carry. [This] test also will be first use of an early-warning radar... to provide the data required to put the interceptor on a proper path toward its target... A furthertest, now scheduled for Dec, will try for an intercept. At a news conference, Rumsfeld said that North Korea's leaders showed, by their test-launch of multiple missiles on 04 Jul 06, a determination to'continue to improve their capability and to threaten and attempt to blackmail other people'. He said theyalso are a threat to spread missile technology to terrorists. 'I think the real threat that North Korea poses in the immediate future is more one of proliferation than a danger to South Korea', he said... Rumsfeld said US intelligence about the intentions of North Korean leaders is not very good, but he said it is clearthat the overall condition of the North Korean military has deteriorated" ; David S.Cloud "Rumsfeld Sees Some Progress in Missile Plan" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said [in Fort Greely, Alaska] that while the fledging US ballistic missile defense system was becoming more capable,he wanted to see a successful full-scale test before declaring it able to shoot down a ballistic missile...Bush administration has taken the unusual step of deploying the system which is designed to shoot down a limited number of missiles before testing is completed and before all radars and sensors necessary to track incoming missiles are in place. Rumsfeld [said] system was aimed at protecting against attacks from North Korea and Iran, which he called 'rogue states that are intent on developing long-range ballistic missiles' ... The goal this week is to see if sensors in the so-called kill vehicle can recognize an incoming warhead, not to actually hit it... But... it employed a target that in its size andspeed was representative of missiles that might be fired at US. In last two flight tests, the system haltedthe firing sequence before the interceptor missile left its silo... Even so, after the second failed test in Feb 05, the system was taken down until Dec 06. [A]s many as 40 are supposed to be installed by next year. The other interceptor site is... in California, where two interceptors are in silos... Bushadministration is also looking at locations for an interceptor site in Europe that would protect US and parts of Europe from missiles launched from Mideast. [C]ould be in place in four years if Congressprovides the money... Sergei Ivanov, defense minister of Russia, [also in Alaska] did not directly criticize US system, but called for 'transparency'by Bush administration, a term meant to convey Russia's concern about any modifications to the system that could take its capabilities beyond stopping a small number of missiles" ;


Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:- "Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".


Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain theseparatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China'policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said".


Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3(May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.


Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary'describes wide variety of military activities, many of which bear little resemblance to those of today's... corporate endeavours that perform logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more". "The Bush Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility" . "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate security contractors to greater or lesser degrees ... Contractors are accountable to range of employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace" -NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably. Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity... requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO. "Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use... Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them". "Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next fortune to be found?".


Lloyd Axworthy and Sarah Taylor, "A Ban for All Seasons: The Landmines Convention and Its Implications for Canadian Diplomacy" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.2(Spring 98):-almost entirely on techniques used to persuade 122 governments to sign Convention(Dec 97)to eliminate the manufacture/use/export of anti-personnel landmines. Thrust: "Ottawa process" required governments and civil society to work together as team. This "soft power" approach is more appropriate because of changed international issues/relations/outcomes that also call for more focus on human(vs state)security and humanitarian law.(See Hampson-Oliver op.cit.)The Economist 04 Dec 04 "Lifting Landmines: Easy To Lay, Hard To Dig Up" (46):-describes how one of world's worst minefields being cleared, and reports on techniques/global issues, at the time of an international landmine conference in Nairobi. "Rats, sniffer dogs and armour-plated bulldozers can help, but most mine-clearing still done by hand, usually by man with pointed stickand plastic mask." Those in Angola use no metal detectors since ground scattered with bullet casings as well. De-miners are rarely killed. "In five years since global ban agreed in Ottawa, nearly 40m landmines ...destroyed. Most were in stockpiles, but some 4m were painstakingly found and dug up. Nonetheless,devices still kill or maim 40 people/day...Some armies, such as Sudan's, continue to plant them.Guerrillas and rebels respect no treaties. Only complete destruction of existing stocks and end to manufacture would cut off supply. But that would require all countries to sign up to Ottawa treaty. So far144 countries have, but China, Russia, Pakistan, India, US still refuse. China...considering signing, butUS will not, mostly because minefields help keep North Koreans out of South Korea...US plans to switch to using mines that self-destruct after a few weeks(though not always reliably)will be used as excuse never to sign treaty. Men...will be prodding gingerly for long time yet."


Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):- former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments; Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]


Sydney D. Bailey and Sam Daws, The Procedure of the U N Security Council (Third Edition)(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-clearly most complete, authoritative and readable reference book on how UNSC works(or doesn't). With Council often in news and Canada member, knowing better what going on, and why, of practical value. There are 400 pages, but all can be read through quite painlessly as sprinkled with amusing anecdotes. For reference, chapters address distinct topics: The Constitutional Framework(how and why extraordinary Charter role);The Council Meets(ever more secret huddles; what about; how methodschange);The People(S-Gs; Presidents; dreaded P5; from polite quips to slugfests);Diplomacy and Debate(how debates are won -or stalled while your side wins war);Voting (various species of votes;skullduggery with veto);Relations with Other Organs(phantom Military Staff; UNGA hordes; TrusteeshipCouncil immortality; eternal votes over ICJ judges; more skullduggery over S-Gs);Subsidiary Organs(planting acorns or pulling weeds);New Charter, New Members, New Rules, New Working Practices, or New National Policies?(UNSC reform deadlock and how to ignore it).Plus 200 pages of Appendices, on everything. To complete picture, Election of Nonpermanent Members described by Malone(op.cit.).


Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.


Warren Bass "The Triage of Dayton" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.5(Sep/Oct 98):-highly critical account of US/UN actions and inactions relating to 95 Dayton Accords on Bosnia.(Full account of negotiations: Holbrooke op.cit.)Seems to take it as given that" Serbs"and they alone committed both aggression and ethnic cleansing, and hence required punishment, not mediation. Argued that early "lift and strike" policy by US against Serbs(regardless of UN ground forces' vulnerability as decided by UNSC)could have let US(sic) "stay true to its avowed ideals of multiethnic tolerance, liberal democracy and reversing aggression."


Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis and Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa(Oxford:James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamentingdemography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/violence).While driven by change, these African reactions show historicalinfluence of approving accumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thusnationalism, government and law are simply used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.


Brian Beedham "The New Geopolitics: The Road to 2050" The Economist 31 Jul 99(1-16):-mainly Kosovo-inspired proposal: democracies(i.e. NATO)actively try to make(run?)better, more peaceful world through joint foreign policy "core of[which]would attempt to spread...democracy. Includes trying to help peoplesquashed under another people's heel...to govern itself." To this end "should be able to construct jointmilitary force that can be swiftly sent to distant parts." Other "great powers" may soon beChina/Japan/Russia/India. If China seems threat, any/all democratic three might want to join "Alliance for Democracy." Survey rules out "clash of civilizations" and credible alternatives to state sovereignty oreventual democracy.[My reaction: Who looks after increasing variety/number/ seriousness of other -oftenvery closely related- problems in same world? UN mentioned only in sarcastic sentence about few wanting international body to have standing army of its own; yet that's exactly what's being proposed! More important, might not 5b others in world have some democratic(sic)views/objections regarding self-selected/-deployed global police force? Also, if major aim of force liberation of minorities, likelythousands of such groups will demand both independence/help? Won't sovereignty continue devolving simply for global survival?]


Christopher de Bellaigue "THINK AGAIN: IRAN" Foreign Policy No.148 (May/Jun 05) (18-24):-like other FPissues, correction of nine public concepts; here: about Iranian nuclear weapons production/use or its positive response to stiff US pressure. Author first outlines widely-held views( "Under-lined Statements" ); states FIRM REACTIONS; and then provides his view of actual truth. He first provides summary: "Tehran's desire for nuclear bomb has put it in Washington's cross hairs. But neither President George W.Bush'srepeated condemnations of Iran's clerical rulers, nor the threat of military force will advance cause ofdemocracy there. When Iran reforms, it will happen because its youth - not the United States - demands it." "If Iran Gets a Nuclear Bomb, Iran Will Use It"-VERY UNLIKELY. "Iran almost certainly does not intendto brandish a nuclear bomb in an attempt to intimidate...Israel/US... Further, clerics have blessed a partial detente with their Arab neighbours and...EU.[Yet] there is plausible circumstantial evidence ...to suggestthat Iran's nuclear program is not civilian. [N]uclear ambiguity is calculated, a reaction to the vulnerability it feels. Iran probably intends to gather all the elements necessary for bomb making, so that it can gonuclear the moment that it feels an attack is imminent." "Iran Has No Use for Nuclear Power"-False."Energy needs are rising faster than [Iran's oil/gas] ability to meet them... Its capacity must nearly triple over 15 years to meet projected demand[,and the electricity cannot all come] from the oil sector. [Output] has stagnated at around 3.7mbd since late 1990s. Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally [and the natural] gas reserves are only just being tapped. It makes sense for Iran to free up its hydrocarbons for export [and] Iran contends that US may pressure foreign sellers into stopping the flow. [Hence] Iran'sdesire for a complete fuel cycle is most suspicious aspect of nuclear program"."The Iranian People Support Their Leaders' Nuclear Program"-NOT REALLY. "Iranians who vocally support...nuclearambitions...minority[;] never witnessed spontaneous discussion of nuclear program among average Iranians...Unlikely many Iranians willing to put up with economic/diplomatic isolation...if Iran insisted on enriching uranium"."Only the Threat of Force Can Dissuade Iran from Advancing with Its Nuclear Plans"-DOUBTFUL."Threat...could also...encourage Iran to leave NPT and develop a nuclear weapon ASAP...[N]ever abandons goal of achieving a nuclear fuel cycle... Iran is more flexible than it appears...[It might] revise its nuclear plans if US abandoned its [hard policies] ...Ultimately it might refuse to publicly relinquish nuclear goals, preferring instead to extend current negotiations indefinitely"."U.S. Military Action Would Embolden Dissidents to Topple the Islamic Republic"-WRONG. "Workers...keeping their heads down andmouths shut... Iranians don't want Iraq's wretched conditions... Iranians opposed to Islamic Republic lack a unifying ideology... Possible some Iranians would cheer a US invasion, but not for long". "Criticizing the Islamic Republic Helps Dissidents Inside Iran"-NO. "Bush's repeated statements of support for Iranian people do not help normal Iranians... Publicly defending beleaguered reformists simply allowed clerics to accuse reformers of being US lackeys...US criticism has perverse effect because US has no diplomatic or economic relations with Iran, and hence no leverage. EU and others [have] some modest leverage with Iran's clerical rulers". "If Iraq Becomes a Democracy, so Will Iran"-WISHFUL THINKING. "Border is about all they share...Few Iranians...question Iran's integrity within its current borders. Same is not true in Iraq...Iran set up a semi-democratic, anti-Western, Shia theocracy... Clerics today enjoy considerable prestige"."Iran Cannot Be Reformed from Within"-WRONG AGAIN. "Iran can and will be reformed from within.Demographics make that course inevitable. Some 70% of Iran's 70m citizens under age of 30, and young Iranians are more reform-minded than older groups... Young people resent existing political restrictions more than their elders, and are less religiously observant... Spread of material values and sexual freedom is palpable, as is desire for smaller families...Young people display little animus for once-hated US...[Yet]reform-minded millions lack common ideology/leadership... New generation will... spur further reform. Process would benefit from critical dialogue with US, rather than current, glowering standoff".


Phyllis Bennis and Michel Moushabeck edit., Altered States: A Reader in the New World Order(New York: Olive Branch Press 93):-uneven but generally left-inclined, strongly anti-US collection of 48 essays, divided into nine groupings: After the Gulf War[global, mostly security, issues];North-South Economic Divide;Transformation of Nationalism: From Anti-Colonialism to Ethnic Cleansing; Soviet Union and Russia;Middle East; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Europe. More useful as source of views at that interesting time,than facts.


Samuel R.Berger"Foreign Policy for a Democratic President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun 04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime, and needs/ opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended)regime. Most issuesdiscussed of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign entities, particularly NATO/UN/ international law. This mentions those of global importance discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed style and its gratuitous unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims,embittered even those abroad most likely to embrace US values. New US regime "no more urgent taskthan to restore...global moral and political authority, so when we decide to act we can persuade othersto join us. Achieving reversal will require forging new strategic bargain with closest allies...Democratic approach to resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improvingflawed agreements rather than ripping them up" .US policy towards Israel-Palestine conflict must return withenergy/urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq," Bush administration's unilateralist approachhas let allies off hook: given them excuse to shirk these and other global responsibilities. Democratic administration would not be so dismissive of allies on issues that matter to them" since exercises truly international rather than exclusively US. Similar approaches are relevant to spread of weapons of mass destruction(WMD)." Democratic administration should use every tool at disposal to prevent WMD threats from arising before force becomes only option" . Listed issues include Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program with Russia, and "global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites" .Others sites described are North Korea and Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add "new bargain" helping non-nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.


Bruce D.Berkowitz "War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat" Foreign Affairs Vol.79/No.3 (May/Jun 00) :-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks(and defending your own) have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspect of world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civiliansociety depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing devicelinked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/ technology usable for computer warfarekeep improving; lasers/microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policyissues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and defense.


Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.


Christoph Bertram, "Multilateral Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution" Survival Vol.37/No.4(Winter 95-96):-examines potential role of UN etc. through study of recent military conflicts. Seeks to determine most successful conditions to prevent or halt conflict, and how military force can best be used to this end.


Richard K.Betts "The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/ No.3(May/Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use, much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence- commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and uncertainty about just whatsomething could be...At end of day, strongest defense against intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good sense, good character and good mental habits of senior officials". Not mentioned in FA, but relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers" (Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need? Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton). Something to be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right Man?" (26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism. President Bush has nominated Congressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist 28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each responsible for differentphase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong; some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human intelligence-gathering.


Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia & J Alexander Thier“Defining Success in Afghanistan: What Can the United States [and NATO] Accept?”(48-60) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.4 (Jul/Aug 10):-official summary:“Since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, the West has tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with Afghanistan’s history and political culture. A range of alternative models are possible, of which the two most realistic and acceptable in terms of US security interests are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty”. Emphasized extracts:“The US will have to push for a more inclusive, flexible, and decentralized political arrangement”. “Centralized governance matches neither the real internal distribution of power in Afghanistan nor local notions of legitimacy”. Final sentence: “The perfect is probably not achievable in Afghanistan - but the acceptable can still be salvaged”. Biddle is Roger Hertog Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Thier is Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. For a selection of articles on Afghanistan from the Foreign Affairs archives, see the collection at www.foreignaffairs.com/collections/afghanistan.


Linda S.Bishai"Sovereignty and Minority Rights: Interrelations and Implications"Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr/ Jun 98):-addresses growing global source of conflict and structural dilemma for UN. Basis: sovereignty generally treated as all-or-nothing legal concept. Shows that identifications with statehood/territory/total domestic authority -let alone with nationalism- have limited history, generating growing frustration/separatist demands from minority groups and compete with globalization. But as EUshows "nations" can have "sovereignty" in all key cultural fields while being part of larger state for other purposes. Can this not be tried globally? If arguments of interest, "article argues that new conceptions of sovereignty should be directed toward nonterritorial aspects. Four parts to...argument. First explains zero-sum nature of territorial state and problems it poses for liberal multiculturalism. Second reviews various historical types of political community and dual emergence of modern theories of sovereignty/ liberalism. Third reveals historical interrelatedness of conceptions of sovereignty and minority, and problem caused for international system. Last part discusses nature of indicated reconceptualizations of sovereignty/minorities, and prospective impact they may have on international institutions".


Bruce G.Blair, Harold A.Feiveson & Frank N.vonHippel "Taking Nuclear Weapons Off Hair-Trigger Alert" Scientific American Nov 97(74-81):-on current status of US/Russian strategic nuclear forces. Many still on high alert status: 5,000+nuclear weapons ready to fire at each other within 30 minutes. Also, much Russian equipment in dangerously deteriorated condition -accidental/ mistaken launches more likely. Proposes US unilaterally "de-alerts" missiles/ increasing time needed to prepare them for launch/allow verification of their status. Russian historical precedent would be: follow suit. For almost identical proposals to put missiles "in escrow" see Frye/Manning/Turner(op.cit.).


Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world? For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act... We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad. [Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/ fanaticism to take root and spread[to globe.] Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests[while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense ofhopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playingincreasing role in settling conflicts. [B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth.[This]can be increased by aid [that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progress we need...coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but theirmain texts/distributions differ.


John Q.Blodgett"The Future of UN Peacekeeping"The Washington Quarterly 14(Winter 91):-bit dated for fast-changing fields, but offers many useful insights of permanent value. Also provides handy definitionsrelevant to current debates.


Davis B.Bobrow & Mark A.Boyer"International System Stability and American Decline" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.2 (Spring 98):-concludes relative decline of US power "has not led to prolonged across-the-board decrease in international efforts to maintain stability of international system". "Muted optimism" from recent trends in foreign aid, debt relief, peace- keeping. Reveals crucial roles of states like Canada and institutionalized co-operative arrangements, to success of international initiatives. Meanwhile US policy tending toward an evolving, more specialized and narrowly focused activism in world. All has direct UN relevance.


Christopher S.Bond & Lewis M.Simons "The Forgotten Front:Winning Hearts and Minds in Southeast Asia"(52-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6(Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US [Western?] policymakers can no longer afford to ignore Southeast Asia. Islamic militants pose a threat to stability in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. But rather than relying on miltary power alone to do the job, US should use trade, aid, and education to alleviate poverty in the region and win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asian Muslims". Bond is a Republican Senator from Missouri. Simons s a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. They are the co-authors of The Next Front: Southeast Asia and the Road to Global Peace With Islam.


Max Boot"Pirates, Then and Now: How Piracy Was Defeated in the Past and Can Be Again"(94-107)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.4 (Jul/Aug 09):-official summary:"Piracy was rampant for centuries past - just as it is again today off the coast of East Africa. To combat present-day marauders, governments should look to the tactics used to defeat piracy in the past: a more active defense at sea and the pursuit of a political solution onshore". Emphasized extracts: "Nations such as England and France had looked on piracy as either a minor nuisance or, when directed against their enemies, a potentially useful tactic". "Oftentimes, rooting out pirates meant risking not only an international incident but also full-scale war". "The problem is twofold: a lack of legal authority and a lack of will to enforce what authority does exist". "[Q]uestion of how to try and process pirates closely related to problem of how to deal with terrorists". Boot:Jeane J.Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at Council on Foreign Relations; author of The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of [US] Power and War Made New Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History, 1500 to Today. Currently writing a history of guerrilla warfare.


Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/ No.2 (Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.


Jane Boulden "Building on the Past: Future Directions for Peace-keeping" Behind the Headlines 48(Summer 91):-excellent survey of peace-keeping principles/how might improve. Relevant to current issues; Canadian orientation.


Elise Boulding & Jan Oberg "United Nations Peace-Keeping and NGO Peace-Building: Towards Partnership" in Chadwick F. Alger edit., The Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century(New York: U N Univ. Press 98):-argues NGOs worldwide can contribute to UN peace-keeping effectiveness by developing networks of "civilian peace teams that co-function with military/ civilian peace-keepers." Also detailed proposals about integrating such teams into Department of Peace-Keeping Operations complete with appropriate organization charts.[Rather unrealistic, given political objections to NGO inclusion in UN decision-making; NGOs' proud autonomy. Urgent need for all NGOs to cooperate more, with both others and UN/government bodies in complex emergencies. More expert "practitioners in mediation/negotiation/conflict resolution" also welcome, but case for NGO teams weak.]


Boutros Boutros-Ghali et al. "UN Peacekeeping: Challenging a New Era" Brown Journal of World AffairsVol.LVIII/Issue1 (Winter/Spring 96):-exceptionally constructive/very informative selection of 16 essays by knowledgeable diplomats/ academics/UN Secretariat personnel on all aspects of UN's peacemaking role, i.e. peacekeeping taken broadly.


Newton R. Bowles, United Nations: Less is More? A Report on the Fifty-Third General Assembly: September-December 1998(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 99):-author is inter alia UNICEF Senior Advisor on Children/War/closely involved in UNGA/other UN meetings. Excellent report covers not only highlights of 98 UNGA but variety of related UN issues over year e.g. Security Council developments. Topics covered selectively but analytically:Overview; General Debate(tone/highlights);Globalization (dialogue/business-liaison);ODA/FDI Resources;Human Rights/development/UN casualties; Humanitarian Intervention; Security Council(evolution);Conflict Prevention(education); Peacekeeping; Disarmament(new trends);Africa(war/ poverty); Crime(ICC/ Tribunals/terrorism/drugs);NGOs/Civil Society; UN Management/Funding.


Newton R. Bowles, United Nations: Hedge or Taels? A Report on the Fifty-Fourth General Assembly: September-December 1999(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 00):-valuable impressions of tone/highlights of UNGA Regular Session/related developments, particularly in Security Council. Subject titles(and main points): World in 99(better prospects than 98; praise for UNSG/UNGA President; radical UNSG speech: humanitarian law before sovereignty(text: Annex 1);no UNSC reform but more open; progress on UN human rights and development role); General Debate(main value: networking/ stage-setting; main theme: massive human rights violence, armed conflict within states; major points of notable speeches);Human Security Issues(follow-up to "Agenda for Peace" particularly prevention; key: broad "international approach to poverty, human rights and social/economic development" (UNGA President Statement: Annex 2);UNSC renewed activism but no progress on membership or veto; special problems of Africa); HIV/AIDS(stress on Africa where death toll 10 times that of wars; Statement by UNAIDS Executive-Director: Annex 3); Conflict Prevention(improved early-warning/prevention strategies; seek social/economic root causes); Peacekeeping(major forcesin Kosovo, Sierra Leone, East Timor, DR Congo total well over 30,000 in 00(Operations in Annex 4);International Justice(international criminal law fairly controversial compared with civil law; Yugoslavia and Rwanda Tribunals started from scratch but improving; International Criminal Court: 30 Jun deadline will be met; current: new convention on terrorism financing, working on conventions re nuclear terrorism and comprehensive anti-terrorism; planning international conference and transnational crime convention;Disarmament(gloomy: START II stuck in Duma; CTBT refused by Congress; ABM may be weakened or ignored; Conference on Disarmament is paralysed; Special Assembly Session on Disarmament unlikely;NPT review conference also unlikely; Resolution on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space passed, but US resumed anti-missile tests; practical progress on implementing/completing agreements on Chemical and Biological weapons, Landmines, Heavy Weapons register, Small Arms Trade; Development(of LDC needs-investment, markets, debt relief, only ODA is responsibility of UN proper(and aid is declining),but UN-Bank/Fund relations closer; North-South dialogue also less confrontational; "Agenda for Development" stresses good governance/ accountability/participation/social security; UNSG WTO speech(Annex 5)highlights LDCs' need to share globalization; 01 all-issue conference on financing development will bring in all stakeholders); UN Aid(of $50b annual ODA, $5b through UN and $5b World Bank; UN stresses social concerns/human development; UNDP major effort to coordinate multilateral aid better); Business and Labour(UNSG challenged big business at Davos to "Global Compact" tocooperate with UN on human rights/labour standards/environment; positive response from ICC; ICFTUalso undertook to support);Humanitarian Activities(natural disasters cost $500b in 90s; armed conflicts cost $200b in external aid, so probably over $1 trillion overall; UN priority to avoid or mitigate natural disasters or conflicts);Human Rights(most humanitarian law written since WWII; much being added; all aspects of human (mis)behaviour come together at UN under human rights; UNSC adopted strong/comprehensive policy on protecting civilians(Annex 6); in Kosovo/East Timor, UN creating entirecriminal justice and human rights systems; UNHCHR investigating standards in 21 fields worldwide);Women's Advancement(Special UNGA Session on Women(Jun 00)will examine implementation of BeijingConference decisions; UNGA studied new report on role of women in development);Children(Tenth Anniversary of Convention on Rights of Child; UNSC resolution "strongly condemns targeting of children in situations of armed conflict" );Finance and Management(main focus again US budget arrears followed by highly-conditional part-payment; 00-01 biennium budget $2,535m, up a symbolic $3m; staff management still slow/cumbersome; excellent final report of 5-year "Internal Oversight" (quoted)); Civil Societies(getsmore into basic issues of development-globalization; UNSG for tripartite "Global Compact" :UN-business-civil society);(Annex 7:Current Membership of UN Organs).


Charles G.Boyd "Making Bosnia Work" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.1(Jan/Feb 98):-international community's greatest problem, years after Dayton Accord: how to achieve aim of creating unified Bosnia. After intense local investigation, concludes this impossible for foreseeable future, and only solution is de facto partition, with security and economic aid provided to all groups, continuing foreign presence, and long healing period.Letters Vol.77/No.3(May/Jun 98):offer some counter-arguments.[My own inclination is to agree, and give up trying to create traditional sovereign state where one has never existed before and at time when feelings are so intense. Emphasis should be on down-grading significance of any borders in area and increasing economic modernization/integration of Balkans so ethnicity becomes "private" matter (again) while all benefit from working together.]


Keith Bradsher "Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:- "The sleet,bulbous-nosed new bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they represent the start of a 180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction, system scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives, offering alternative to clogged highways and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may... control oil imports, curb fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded train will use only sixth of energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with bus ride, figures are half the energyand a quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost - $15b... - madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down through western Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles... System will start with 19 trains in each direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90 minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need to cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how many people use its somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is developed around these stations and how much tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High - Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed high-speed rail system geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and embarrassing ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins. [I]t represents colossal effort toimprove transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment. [P]roblems that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about being unable to use credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours from Taipei".


Duane Bratt "Peace Over Justice: Developing a Framework for UN Peacekeeping Operations in Internal Conflicts" Global Governance Vol.5/No.1(Jan-Mar 99):-while UN's "purpose" is to "maintain international peace/security" ,many Charter references to human rights make clear second objective to improve political/economic/social justice. Priority and resource dilemmas arise when aims equally demanding or mutually exclusive, mainly in facing internal conflicts. Argues that, besides Charter ranking, obvious precedence of saving lives and doing most urgent first, means peace must have priority. Moreover, thisreduces perception of UN "imperialism" and alien priorities as well as criticism UN forces "helping" one sideby(aiding in)delivering humanitarian assistance or seizing war criminals. Still, agonizing global "triage" may be only solution to choosing among "peace" options.


Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past. Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Corespondent for New York Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.


Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the 300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines; Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison; Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos; New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.


William J.Broad & David E.Sanger"As Nuclear Secrets Emerge, More Are Suspected" New York Times26 Dec 04:- extraordinary article, over six printed pages long, that contains so much fascinating material thatsummary is not feasible. Following material from item's beginning and end, however. "When experts fromUS and [UN's]International Atomic Energy Agency[IAEA]came upon blueprints for 10 kiloton atomic bomb in files of Libyan weapons program earlier this year, they found themselves caught between gravity/pettiness. Discovery gave experts new appreciation of audacity of rogue nuclear network led by A. Q. Khan, a chief architect of Pakistan's bomb. Intelligence officials had watched Dr. Khan for years andsuspected he was trafficking in machinery for enriching uranium to make fuel for warheads. But detailed design represented new level of danger, particularly since Libyans said he had thrown it in as deal-sweetener when he sold them $100 million in nuclear gear...Nearly a year after Dr. Khan's arrest, secrets of his nuclear black market continue to uncoil, revealing a vast global enterprise. But inquiry has beenhampered by discord between Bush administration and nuclear watchdog[IAEA], and by Washington's concern that if it pushes too hard for access to Dr. Khan, national hero in Pakistan, it could destabilize ally. As result, much of urgency has been sapped from investigation, helping keep hidden full dimensions of activities of Dr. Khan and his associates...Worried about what is still unknown, IAEA quietly setting up...Covert Nuclear Trade Analysis Unit, agency officials disclosed. It has about half dozen specialists looking for evidence of deals by Khan network or its imitators. "I would not be surprised to discover thatsome countries pocketed some centrifuges," Dr ElBaradei[IAEA]. "They may have considered it a chance of a lifetime to get some equipment and thought,'Maybe...good for rainy day.'"


Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).


Michael E.Brown, Sean M.Lynn-Jones & Steven E.Miller, edit. East Asian Security: An International Security Reader(Cambridge: MIT Press 96):-East Asia is major locus of post-Cold War arms build-up and ofpotential interstate war. Essays' consensus is that an effective regional security system or arms reduction(including PRC nuclear) are not imminent, but that same is true for revival of Japanese military. Anticipatesmore positive UN role for PRC, which is critical to disarmament progress, and for Japan.


Zbigniew Brzezinski "Hegemonic Quicksand" The National Interest Winter 03/04(5-16):-long article on future instability excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership. Claims unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing similar to past "European Balkans" )is region between Europe and Far East. "For next several decades, most volatile and dangerous region of world - with explosive potential to plunge world into chaos - will be crucial swathe[from approximately Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and fromRusso-Kazakh border to southern Afghanistan]...Here that America could slide into collision with world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. Two eventualities together could then put prevailing American global hegemony at risk.[C]hallengeAmerica now confronts, dwarfs what it faced half-century ago in Western Europe [since]to promote global security will be pacification and then cooperative organization of region that contains world's greatest concentration of political injustice, social deprivation, demographic congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But region also contains most of world's oil and natural gas...In 2020 area projected to produce roughly 42m barrels of oil per day - 39% of global production total...No self-evident answers to such basic questions as how and with whom America should be engaged in helping to stabilize area, pacifyit and eventually cooperatively organize it." Then notes that some states in area could be US potential key partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four are then examined in detail but ruled out for various reasons. "Ultimately US can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe. Although it will need help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither likely at this stage to become heavily engaged. OnlyEurope...potential capacity in political, military and economic realms to pursue jointly with US task of engaging various Eurasian peoples...US and Europe together represent array of physical and experientialassets with capacity to make decisive difference in shaping political future of Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur, however, if expected to consist of simply following US lead" .Latter portionof paper discusses whether and how US and Europe can work together in improving issues of area. Specific attention made to problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, Gulf states, Caucasus and Central Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to" need to contain both proliferation of WMD and terrorist epidemic." Paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes quicksand only more dangerous."


Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.


Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.


Robert Buckman, Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.

 

Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(Second Edition) (Houndmills: Macmillan Press 95):-new edition of seminal work on state system surprisingly retains original 77 text. ItsUN-relevant aim was to determine whether system would/should survive -and alternatives. Concluded very little change was possible or needed. Interest today derives from how much of original argumentundercut by extraordinary changes of past 20 years, particularly constraints on state sovereignty by:globalization of information/manufacture/ finance; new global imperatives/power centers/vacuums; novel capacities/threats. For firm support see Hoffmann(op.cit.).

 

Barry A.Burciul"UN Sanctions: Policy Options for Canada"Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1 (Fall 98):-thorough, global effort to improve sanctions, in response to tough facts:(1)sanctions rarely achieve ends, and often cause unnecessary pain;(2)serve as relatively cheap and risk-free ways to meet pressurefor "action" ;(3)targeted sanctions often work better than comprehensive. Priorities: discourage sanctionsif more constructive, humane alternatives exist; ensure strong/targeted; always consider innocentcivilians. Ideas: wider range of threats, but sanctions high-cost, so need broad multilateral coalition plus regional/NGO support; humane sanctions more effectively gain essential support; target states/personsmust be fully understood, to avoid counterproductive action and find optimum means (travel, sports, culture ban, arms embargo, even violence); better as deterrent/preventive/threat than as coercion; "sanctions forum" studies options/support/strategic planning using pooled intelligence to judge hot spots/timelimits/temporary tariffs/lessons learned/finance levers; "humanitarian limits" must protect NGOs, determine and police exemptions; enforcement must be rapid/specific/ coordinated/committed/informed, and include border surveys.

 

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terrorshould have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).


Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".


Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted toal-Qaedismin its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceivedwar on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".


Richard Butler "Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered: Repairing the Security Council" Foreign AffairsVol.78/No.5 (Sep/Oct 99):-former UNSCOM Executive Chairman(Iraq disarmament supervision)on most urgent problems facing UN Security Council. Sees as particularly dismaying last 12 months, "during which council was bypassed, defied, and abused" by misuse/threat of veto. This was granted to permanent members(P5)solely" to allow them to prevent council decision authorizing use of force against them[yet they]weighted their narrow national interests over collective responsibility." Council must address two key areas:(1)new informal rules should reduce matters subject to veto(US initiative critical);(2)P5 should not judge Council's ultimate role in enforcing arms control treaties on subjective political basis. Must also keep their NPT promises.


Mayra Buvinic and Andrew R. Morrison "Living in a More Violent World" Foreign Policy No.118(Spring 2000):-valuable survey of steeply rising global rate of combat-unrelated violence, its probable causes, likely trends, economic and social costs, and possible control policies. Average global homicide rates, naturally the most complete, and derived from a 34-country sample over various regions, rose from5.82/100,000 in 1980-84 to 8.86/100,000 in 1990-94, a more than 50% increase in a decade(OECD:15%; Latin America:80%; Arab world:112%). Limited victimization (assaults/threats)trends seem similar. Moreover rate of increase appears to be accelerating: latest rates include Latin America 23/100,000; sub-Saharan Africa 40/100,000, with Johannesburg 115/100,000. Causes include: aggressive cultures orupbringing; ineffective justice systems; high ratio in LDCs of persons 18-24(group most inclined to violence)perpetuated by reduced social inhibitions; high population density, anonymity, poverty and urban social disintegration; greater(awareness of)national/local income inequalities through globalization; media emphasis on violence or at least aggression; the increased quantity and availability of drugs and guns. Costs include: significantly lower economic growth through foregone investment, less tourism, reduced productivity, higher security/medical expenses. Policies include: prevention programs throughbetter and focused social care/policing/education, urban regeneration, handgun and alcohol controls. Above all, local initiatives.


Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, Anticipating the Future: Twenty Millennia of Human Progress(London: Simon & Schuster 1998):-this book is both stimulating and misleading -points made in Reviews in both The Economist 14 Feb 98(12)and Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.2(Mar/Apr 1998)(134-9):-in spite of its title, almost entire book deals with broad sweep of human past and present, in order to put 1998 and our possible futures into focus. It does it clearly/usefully if in fairly orthodox terms. "Future" section anticipates UN system stymied, mainly by US, requiring replacement. My criticism is that it underestimates depth and acceleration of current global change(INTRODUCTION or Bull-op.cit.).


Daniel Byman “How to Handle Hamas: The Perils of Ignoring Gaza’s Leadership”(45-62) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.5 (Sep/Oct 10):-official summary:“Hamas is central to Israeli security and Palestinian politics, yet the international community refuses to work with it. This is a mistake. Hamas might possibly be convinced not to undermine progress on a peace deal. To accomplish this, Israel and the international community would have to exploit Hamas’ vulnerabilities with a mix of coercion and concessions - including a further easing of the siege of Gaza”. Emphasized extracts:“The siege has not weakened Hamas, which has by now crushed or outflanked its political rivals”. “Hamas has shown itself to be pragmatic in practice, although rarely in rhetoric”. No longer can Hamas simply be a resistance group, criticizing and undermining Abbas”. “Peace would push Hamas to emphasize governance more and strengthen the group’s moderates”. Final sentence: “At stake is not just the failure of the peace process but also the possibility of another war and of Israel occupying Gaza again”. Byman is a Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He is author of forthcoming book A High Price: The Triumphs and Failures of Israeli Counterterrorism.


Lucius Caflisch "Regulation of the Uses of International Waterways: The Contribution of the United Nations" (3-35)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work(Westport: Praeger 98):-Charterrequires UNGA "initiate studies and make recommendations for purpose of:..encouraging progressive development of international law and its codification." Much effective work done by expert 34-memberInternational Law Commission whose drafts passed to UNGA for decision. This greatly increased body of international law at time when need for it expanding. Describes in lay terms how newly explosive issue, "development, apportionment and use of water resources[and]one of world's major economic and social problems" handled in UN. Growing demand, hence rising competition for scarce resource made it delicate exercise.

 

Kevin M.Cahill edit. Preventive Diplomacy: Stopping Wars Before They Start(New York: Basic Books 96):-unusually valuable/varied source of information/views on UN issues by 20 top experts in their fields. While "preventive action" and medical parallel provide unifying theme of sorts, each(UN/diplomatic/NGO/government/medical, etc. background) provides unique and often unexpected focus. A good trend!

 

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). All are prime examples of proliferation, speed and impact of new global trends and prospects.


Frances Cairncross "A Survey of Illegal Drugs: High Time" The Economist 28 Jul 01(1-16):- excellent report on global status, system and knowledge of illegal drugs. It makes strong case for their legalization, aimed mainly at current situation in US. In essence, drug industry consists of production, transport and sale of "simple agricultural extracts and chemical compounds... for astonishing prices[, which] directly reflect the ferocious efforts by the rich countries to suppress [them]". Effect is to create huge -and highly profitable- escalation from production to import to retail prices. Per kilo, farmers get $90 for opium and $610 for coca leaves. Import prices of resulting heroin and cocaine are about 10-15% of retail prices in rich countries, where heroin can sell for $290,000 and cocaine powder for $110,000 per kilo. Annual global tobacco sales total $204b; alcohol $252b; rough guesses of illegal drugs sales vary: $150b(author); $400b(UN)(3). Much material is derived from a major new study: Robert MacCoun & Peter Reuter Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times, and Places(Cambridge Univ. Press). Cairncross argues that, while not underestimating harm drug misuse can do to individuals and "moral fury drug-taking can arouse,.. outrage has turned out to be a poor basis for policy". In US, where anti-drug policy costs $35-40b a year, it has "eroded civil liberties, locked up unprecedented numbers of young blacks and Hispanics... corroded foreign policy [and] proved a dismal rerun of [Prohibition. Yet as US now] probably consume[s] more drugs per head... than most other countries[,its]experience demonstrates the awkward reality that there is little connection between the severity of a drugs policy... and prevalence of use... At the heart of the debate... lies a moral question: what duty does the state have to protect individual citizens from harming themselves?"(4/5). Here she supports John Stuart Mills' "On Liberty" :'Over himself, over his own body and mind, the individual is sovereign'. "So a first priority is to look for measures that reduce the harm drugs do, both to users and to society at large" (5). "Big Business" describes recent history and current structure of global drugs industry: where and how drugs originate, are processed, shipped, and sold and who is involved at various stages/places. In sum: "drugs industry is simple and profitable. Its simplicity makes it relatively easy to organize; its profitability makes it hard to stop. At every level, its pricing and its structure are shaped by the high level of risk from enforcement" (6). "Choose Your Poison" discusses who uses drugs and why. Most drug users live in the poor world (China, Pakistan, Colombia). Future growth will be concentrated in developing countries and former USSR. Markets with big money are in rich world - which also prefers drugs with fewest side-effects and least likely to cause addiction. Most drug users are "occasional dabblers", so a minority of users account for bulk of consumption. "Most drugs do not appear to be physically addictive" (including cannabis and amphetamines) but: "Heroin is a true addiction, with a recovery rate of 40-50%... With cocaine, the recovery rate is around 90%" (9). A third of US heroin users are dependent (80% of cigarette smokers are addicted). Idea that soft drugs lead on to hard drugs turns out to be nonsense. "The Harm Done" deals with drugs' negative effects on users and society. Abusing drugs wrecks many lives. For those dependent, pleasure -often their original motive- "consists mainly of avoiding the pain of giving up[; however, m]ost drug users ultimately stop when drugs no longer fit their lifestyle. [Also, with exception]of heroin, drugs contribute to far fewer deaths among... users than... nicotine or alcohol[, and c]onsuming a drug is rarely the only cause of death" (9)(dirty needles). Although drugs may affect brain activity (even cannabis might possibly do damage), The Lancet concludes:" It would be reasonable to judge cannabis less of a threat than tobacco or alcohol" ,while it could help treat nausea, appetite loss, pain and anxiety. Besides health problems, drugs have been linked to domestic violence, grogginess, bad driving, and much petty crime. Here government is right to intervene - but best way is not necessarily to ban drugs. "Stopping It" describes how governments try unsuccessfully to stop the flow of drugs. US Prohibition, though milder than its drug policies, foreshadowed many current problems. Most important, "the attempt to stamp out drugs has had effects more devastating than those of the drugs themselves" (10) - and on global stage. Because of vast profits, reflecting low costs/high prices, suppression of drug-growing in some regions simply shifts production/related problems, with little durable effect on supply. Even huge drug seizures do not affect prices, and essential corruption can be bought at all levels. Demand is also hard to reduce despite harsh penalties, because of popular cultures,huge numbers who want to buy, and desperation of addicts. "Collateral Damage" looks at varied indirect costs of criminalizing drugs. Among "victims": Law enforcement and legal system are at minimum distorted, with investigative and court standards lowered and at worst corrupted. Mere drug users jailed (US mandatory minimum: 5-10 years for possession of few grams of drugs) for usually harmless and (in Mill's sense) strictly personal acts. Many released dangerously scarred, drug-addicted and/or HIV-infected. Basic civil liberties and freedom from state intrusion are at minimum constrained. Education/social benefit/job impeding criminal records are branded on previously non-criminal and perhaps exemplary citizens. US rate of incarceration for drug offences (74% black) is totally at odds with the racial mix of drug users (13% black) because more blacks/Hispanics have to buy (vulnerably) on the street. Both huge US costs of drug enforcement and substantial drug taxes are unavailable for better purposes, while criminals/rogue states enjoy revenues of $80-100b a year. "Better Ways"probes various alternatives to enforcement for controlling drug use. Education is a possibility, but apparently has at best limited effect. For habitual drug users, "harm reduction" is more promising (methadone programs, needle-exchange centres, prescription heroin). Very successful Swiss program includes all three in its "heroin maintenance" clinics. These care for 1000 most problematic of 33,000 Swiss heroin addicts. Most are given anti-addictive heroin-substitute methadone, but most "chaotic" are initially given "pharmaceutical" heroin daily. They are not pushed towards abstinence since: "People can tolerate regular doses of heroin for long periods, but if they give up for a period and then start again, they run big risk of overdosing" (14). Of those who drop out of full "heroin maintenance", two-thirds move on to either methadone or abstinence. Even while still on heroin, most can get full-time jobs, end trouble with police, and hardly ever attempt suicide or contract HIV. Vast majority are also taking cocaine on first arrival (29%: daily) but after 18 months 93% take it never or only occasionally (there is no "methadone" for cocaine). Dutch "principle of expediency" aims to "separate the markets for illegal drugs to keep users of 'soft' ones away from dealers in the harder versions, and to avoid marginalising drug users" (14). While cannabis remains illegal, some "coffee shops" may sell small quantities under strict rules without prosecution. Both Swiss and Dutch governments want to legalize marijuana but restrain because UN convention prevents them from (formally) legalizing" possession of and trade in cannabis". US opinion is moving in same direction, and several states (plus Canada) already allow medical use of marijuana (73% of US supported this by 1999). "Set It Free" addresses issue of how best to decriminalize drugs if it is so decided. They would effectively be put on par with tobacco and alcohol, and both possession and trade would have to be legalised, but under systems which could reflect each drug's relative danger and with appropriate quality control. Number of users would inevitably rise. (1)Prices would certainly be lower (maybe much lower) since appropriate taxes could not be so high as to encourage smuggling and crime again. (2)Access to drugs would be easier and quality-assured. (3)Social stigma against use of drugs would diminish. (4)Might be strong commercialization with corresponding pressure to consume more. (5)Even with consumer age-limits, younger market is certain to grow. But "nobody knows quite what drives the demand for drugs"(16); it may respond most to price, to fashion, to social standards - or to local culture. Hence best to move slowly, thus building experience, and cautiously start with just marijuana and amphetamines. International cooperation is needed to "minimise drug tourism and smuggling" (UN role?). Hard drugs should be sold only through licenced outlets (pharmacies?). Above is well summarized in Editorial "The Case For Legislation" (11-12), although it makes "stronger case for principle" (John Stuart Mill) and terrible harm drug trade in doing in poor world. Finally it notes that good health and safety rules could be applied. Economist 25 Aug 01 Letters: "Legalising Drugs" (16-7):-includes number of reactions to above. Majority raise disagreement, but all are thoughtful and constructive.


David Callahan Unwinnable Wars: American Power and Ethnic Conflict(New York: Hill & Wang 97):-while addressed to US leaders, fine analysis/recommendations apply to UN and its active members. Thesis: recent trend for intra-state ethnic violence will continue - if decrease. All states have interest in ending - ideally, preventing - such wars. UN must be empowered to play more effective role, and greater capacity for using standing forces, in managing internal conflicts. Regional bodies, UN financing, arms-trade control, cooperation with NGOs, and aid to failed states, must all be strengthened. Diplomacy/intelligence(mainly analysis)must be updated - and cooperate with UN.


Canadian Council on International Law and The Markland Group edit. Treaty Compliance: Some Concerns and Remedies(London: Kluwer Law International 98):-papers/recommendations from meeting on "Compliance Systems for Disarmament Treaties" held under editors' auspices, Toronto 95. Papers revised/expanded/updated. Essence of Recommendations: (A)Biological/ Chemical Weapons Treaties:(1)guidelines on limitations of defensive research; (2)CWC national penal legislation should also bind governments;(3)study whether mid-spectrum agents fit BWC or CWC;(4)UN Center for Disarmament should be able to tabulate/disseminate CBM data for BWC;(5)BWC scrutinize compliance reports after technical analysis;(6)citizen compliance concerns should be recognized;(7)BWC/CWC parties should disseminatetreaty obligations using NGO/foundations' help;(8)legal assistance treaties to combat anti-BWC/ CWC transnational conspiracies.(B)Nuclear Treaties:(1)IAEA should reinforce special inspections;(2)increase IAEA budget;(3)security assurances against WMD threat/use;(4)help involve public/science community inverification.© Humanitarian/Human Rights Treaties:(1)compliance/verification: be expert, automatically triggered, and respond to citizen/NGO/government information;(2)NGOs: participate fully in reviewconferences;(3)national legal regimes: ensure: treaty implementation; individuals/groups get effectiveaccess/redress; legal profession knows scope/ availability of international legal standards;(4)arms controltreaties: provide for NGO information; (5)compliance/ sanctions: use trade mechanisms, weapons producers, financial institutions; (6)effective dissemination of human rights/arms agreements: be monitored by independent global body. Papers' Essence: Kim S. Carter, Apply Humanitarian Law Compliance/ Enforcement to Arms Treaties; James F. Keeley, Compliance and the NPT: Safeguards/Supply Controls; Christine Elwell,Trade/Environment Compliance Measures Enhance Conventional Arms Treaties(Landmines-UN Peacekeeping);Douglas Scott/A. Walter Dorn, CWC Compliance Regime-Summary/ Analysis; Nicholas A. Sims, Strengthen BWC/CWC Compliance Regimes.


Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report(New York: Carnegie Corporation 97):-while containing little particularly original or radical, concentrates on making well-argued and convincing case for much more and earlier preventive diplomacy, particularly by UN. Among proposals(all op.cit.)from well-qualified and independent membership: better intelligence for/by UN; more S-G personal initiatives; better-targeted economic sanctions; "inducements" for peace; use of conditionality; preventive deployments; UN rapid reaction force; non-deployed nuclear weapons( "in escrow" );tighter verification for all arms treaties; making development more sustainable; rule of law; involvement by NGOs, religions, science, schools, business, media.


Linda S.Bishai"Sovereignty and Minority Rights: Interrelations and Implications"Global Governance Vol.4/No.2 (Apr/Jun 98):- addresses growing global source of conflict and structural dilemma for UN. Basis:sovereignty generally treated as all-or-nothing legal concept. Shows that identifications with statehood/territory/total domestic authority -let alone with nationalism- have limited history, generating growingfrustration/separatist demands from minority groups and compete with globalization. But as EU shows "nations" can have "sovereignty" in all key cultural fields while being part of larger state for other purposes. Can this not be tried globally? If arguments of interest, "article argues that new conceptions of sovereignty should be directed toward nonterritorial aspects. Four parts to...argument. First explains zero-sum natureof territorial state and problems it poses for liberal multiculturalism. Second reviews various historical types of political community and dual emergence of modern theories of sovereignty/ liberalism. Third reveals historical interrelatedness of conceptions of sovereignty and minority, and problem caused for international system. Last part discusses nature of indicated reconceptualizations of sovereignty/minorities, and prospective impact they may have on international institutions".


Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/FP Special Report"China Rising: How the Asian Colossus Is Changing Our World" Foreign Policy No.146(Jan/Feb 05):-in fall 04, Carnegie "convened some of world's leading thinkers on China to take stock of political/economic consequences of country's rapid ascent [www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ChinaProgram]. FP asked seven of these experts to weigh in on implications of Middle Kingdom's return to greatness". Jonathan D.Spence"The Once And Future China":-investigates: What of China's past could be a harbinger for its future? Concludes "These are the memories and the territorial histories [including Taiwan] that China has to juggle as it embarks on its myriad new challenges and opportunities". Zbigniew Brzezinski & John J.Mearsheimer engage in Debate on"Clash of the Titans":-Is China more interested in money than missiles? Will US seek to contain China as it once contained Soviet Union? ZB and JM go head-to-head on whether these two great powers are destined to fight it out. Titles of thoughtful sequence: ZB: Make Money, Not War. JM: Better to Be Godzilla than Bambi; i.e.powerful China is likely to try to push US out of Asia. ZB: Nukes Change Everything. JM: Showing the US the Door. ZB: US's Staying Power. JM: It's Not a Pretty Picture. Martin Wolf"Why Is China Growing so Slowly? :-For all its success, China is still not living up to its potential."Do not think China's rapid growth is either extraordinary or a flash in the pan. It is neither. Social and political obstacles to China's rapid growth are considerable. But the opportunity remains enormous. China's economic boom could well be in its middle, not its end." Ashley J.Tellis"A Grand Chessboard" :-Beijing seeks to reassure the world that it isgentle giant; it knows that US is casting a wary eye in its direction."Strategy of emphasizing peaceful ascendancy in word and deed will likely satisfy Chinese interests until it becomes a true rival of US." Homi Kharas"Lifting All Boats":-Why China's great leap is good for the world's poor. China has become the center of a virtuous regional trade cycle."For the developing world, it's something to emulate, not fear." Minx Pei "Dangerous Denials":-China's economy is blinding the world to its political risks. "The only thing certain about China's... risks is that they are on the rise." The Economist"China: No Sign of a Landing"29 Jan 05(39-40):-supports FP views by emphasizing that "China... continues to grow at breakneck speed". National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had declared that economy grew by 9.5% in 2004,"its fastest clip in eight years", and probably an accurate or low figure for a change. NBS in fact "put a brave face on the figure, attributing quickened pace of growth... to stronger than expected performances in agriculture and services - the parts of economy China still wants to boost... Encouragingly, government's cooling measures... do not appear to have affected consumer spending. Growth of retail sales of consumer goods remained strong during the year...This offers some hope investment can be curbed without a sharp slowdown... First results from the census are due in August, and complete data by the middle of next year. Whatever they reveal, it is unlikely to be that China has been wildly overstating its GDP growth figures". Jim Yardley "Fearing Future, China Starts to Give Girls Their Due"New York Times 31 Jan 05:-reports on an important cultural concern. "Government credits [so-called one-child] policy for sharply slowing China's population growth [300m less], but critics say it is a major reason many families now use prenatal scans and selective abortions to make certain their child is a boy. [Hence] reversing birth imbalance between boys and girlscannot be postponed... Nationwide ratio has reached 119 boys for every 100 girls. [I]n a few decades China could have up to 40m bachelors unable to find mates. [Reason:] most Chinese parents, particularly in rural areas, prefer sons. [A]ll parents, worried about their old age, know Chinese tradition holds that a son must care for his parents. A daughter, on the other hand, marries into husband's family. In countryside, where no real social safety net, a son is considered equivalent of pension. [Recently,] fiscal incentives [are] intended to give monetary value to girls and, by doing so, reduce incentive to abort them. Even so, limited scope of program has reduced its impact. [Also,] attitudes hard to change in male-dominated China. Joseph Kahn "China to Cut Taxes on Farmers and Raise Their Subsidies"NYT 03 Feb 05:-"Chinese officials are promising to reduce taxes on peasants and increase farm subsidies to improve the lot of 800m rural residents left behind in the fast-growing economy. Measures... are intended to slow the surging wealth gap between urban/rural residents, major source of social discontent and perhaps the greatest challenge for governing Communist Party... Last year average urban income 3.2 times as much as average rural income, one of the biggest urban-rural divides in the world. [G]overnment has injected hundreds of billions of dollars into developing urban coastal areas while maintaining tight controls over farmland and peasants to ensure steady supplies of grain and surplus labor. [O]ne potential key lies in creating a market for farmland that resembles the one for urban land".


Ted Galen Carpenter edit. Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention (Washington: Cato Institute 97):-Cato aims to further "traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, and peace." Libertarian view inclines it to oppose multilateralism(it inter alia limits US global freedom of action)and all constraints on free enterprise. Topics: UN in Perspective; Peacemaker-Peacekeeper; Bureaucracy-Funding- Corruption; Social and Environmental Agenda; Economic Development Role. 18 essays clearly stress Cato views. Only five sympathetic to UN aims/activities; 10 or so reasonable, even if bit selective or broad, in criticism. Last deliberately distort, and in their narrow-minded, selfish jingoism, exhibit true "delusions of grandeur": John Bolton: " [Clinton] forgot that UN was instrument to be used to advance America's foreign policy interests, not to engage in international social work..." (51; his emphasis)! Provides rationales of many US anti-UN views.


Edward Carr, "The Koreas: Yesterday's War, Tomorrow's Peace" in The Economist 10 Jul 99(1-16):-millennium ended with probably the greatest single threat to global peace and security being danger ofconflict between Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea(North Korea)and Republic of Korea(South Korea). While Survey concentrates on economic structures and prospects, it shows danger is serious in every dimension: military, geographic, strategic, diplomatic, political, ideological, developmental, historic, educational...However, Carr argues, North "is inherently unstable. Economy is collapsing and needs radical reform. There is despondency and latent unrest. Corruption is rife.[M]ilitary...is far larger...thanthe country can afford" (14). Hence it must transform somehow. Yet while South is 12 times richer per capita, it could not absorb a ruin; so it is optimum that they come together gradually. By 15 Apr 00, so much of global interest was happening in Korea that Economist ran a major essay as update: "The Two Koreas: Mr. Kim, Meet Mr. Kim" (21-4). In spite of agreement by North to hold an unprecedented bilateral summit,essay's tone seems even more cautious. Korean problems also produced two excellent New York Timesarticles. Howard W. French, "North Korea Shyly Courts Capitalism" 30 Apr 00:-claims that there has recently been a major change in North's economic policy. It accepts major high-tech investment, mainly from South Korea and China, and is starting to look like its big neighbour with complexes of efficient, private assembly plants coexisting with ancient, moribund state heavy industry. Calvin Sims, "Behind Korea Meeting, a Million Troops in a Standoff" 04 May 00:-reports on ever-tense "demilitarized zone" dividing well over 1m troops on constant alert and equipped with advanced military hardware. Not only are small but deadly clashes normal, but North has just deployed many long-range multiple-rocket launchers and self-propelled guns near zone, and is now believed to possess thousands of tons of chemical and biological weapons - besides its infamous missiles. All this in spite of new North-South contacts and "improved" relations.


Peter, Lord Carrington et al. Words to Deeds: Strengthening the U.N.'s Enforcement Capabilities - Final Report of the International Task Force on the Enforcement of U.N. Security Council Resolutions(New York: UNA-USA 97):- ten world figures reached constructive and expert consensus with genuine prospects of implementation. Among 29 conclusions: give priority to preventive diplomacy and strengthened enforcement machinery; UNSC primacy for enforcement to be respected and reinforced; Chapter VIIresolutions to be clear, specific, consistent, unambiguous, realistic and well-supervised, to includeoperational plans, regular consultations with states involved and world-class experts, and securely use and share all sources of relevant information; resolutions on non-military sanctions to be specific, fully costedfor all affected, monitored, given a timeframe, focused if possible, and to draw on expert advice; military operations to have very clear mandate, strategic oversight, post-conflict follow-up and be decisive; overhaul Military Staff Committee to give UNSC best advice, and to consult with others involved; since for now ad hoc coalitions more likely than standing UN or stand-by forces, develop capability inventory, a roster of earmarked units, a common doctrine, rules of engagement and training, and tighter UNSC oversight; support regional bodies with preventive measures, financial, material, and logistic help, and better inter-group coordination.


Ashton Carter, John Deutch & Philip Zelikow "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6(Nov/Dec 98):-distillation of Universities Study Group on Catastrophic Terrorism reportpublished by Stanford University. Version will also appear as chapter in forthcoming Preventive Defense: An American Security Strategy for the 21st Century by Ashton Carter and William Perry. All(distinguished) members of Study Group are listed in footnote. Conclusions are: terrorism using weapons of mass destruction has moved "from far-fetched horror to a contingency that could happen next month" ; particularly with biological weapons, "technology is more accessible, and society is more vulnerable" ; elaborate "networks have developed among organized criminals, drug traffickers, arms dealers, money launderers, [thus]creating infrastructure for[such]terrorism around the world" . While recommendations directed mainly at urgent US action, all fall into universal categories: intelligence/warning; prevention/deterrence;management of crises and consequences. All needs international/global cooperation.


Ashton B.Carter"How To Counter WMD"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.5(Sep/Oct 04):-ex-US Assistant Secretary of Defense (under Clinton)and currently Co-director, Harvard Preventive Defense Project, writes just when:most are concerned that US attacked Iraq by mis-claiming WMD threat; US presidential election imminent. Concerned that since 11 Sep crisis, US "counterproliferation policies have not been overhauled", and" it has made no new efforts to prevent nonstate actors such as terrorists from getting their hands on WMD." He truly decrees much reliable advice on countering the serious terrorist/WMD dangers to the entire global audience, and not to Washington only. His basic view:" WMD generally applies to nuclear, biological, chemical weapons; ballistic missiles; more recently'dirty bombs,'ordinary explosives containing some radioactive material. But this definition is too broad. Chemical weapons are not much more lethal than conventional explosives/hardly...WMD label. Similarly, long-range ballistic missiles especially destructive only if they have nuclear or biological warhead, and so should not be considered separate category. Dirty bombs cause local contamination and costly priority. Primary focus of counterproliferation policy, therefore, should be nuclear and biological weapons...True overhaul of counterproliferation policy would recognize that, like defense against terrorism, defense against WMD must be multilayered and comprehensive. Such reforms would aim to eliminate threat of nuclear terrorism entirely by denying fissilematerials to nonstate actors and...prepare to contain scale of most likely forms of bioterrorism to minor outbreaks. It would revamp outdated arms control agreements, expand counterproliferation programs,...improve way intelligence on WMD is collected and analysed.[W]ould favor countering WMD with non-nuclear rather than nuclear measures. And it would at last develop coherent strategies for heading off...most pressing nuclear proliferation threats." Substantial article then amplifies all these points.


Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".


Michael Chertoff"The Responsibility to Contain: Protecting Sovereignty Under International Law" (130-147) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"A new framework of international law that confronts modern threats is long overdue. If it is to revive the legitimacy of international law, this order must be predicated on a new principle, under which individual states assume reciprocal obligations to contain transnational threats emerging from within their borders". Emphasized extracts:"Those who challenge the relevance of consent often treat 'sovereignty' as a pejorative term or an antiquated concept". "If US withdraws from international legal institutions to protect its national interests, everyone will lose". "The most serious threats to sovereignty today do not necessarily come from the official acts of other states". "International law has no business interfering with the US domestic system of justice". "States can no longer hide behind seventeenth-century concepts of sovereignty in world of twenty-first-century dangers". Chertoff: US Secretary of Homeland Security. Views expressed are his own.


Jarat Chopra edit. "Special Issue on Peace-Maintenance Operations" Global Governance Vol.4/No.1(Jan/Mar 98):- since Cold War end, UN has undertaken many peace-related operations of new complexity and scale(often called second-generation). Several (Bosnia/ Rwanda/Somalia) deficient for multiple reasons(mandate/ management/resources). Papers analyse peace-maintenance system where UN exercises(some) political authority to harmonize diplomatic/ humanitarian/military/other civil aspects of operations if local systems fail.Authority-Knight; Administration-Morphet; Humanitarianism- Donini; Law-Plunkett; Military-Cousens; Accepting Authority-Adibe.

 

Jarat Chopra, "United Nations Peace-Maintenance" (312-40)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work (Westport: Praeger 98):-more uniform/all-embracing case for idea of flexible UN multi-functional governance role than made in Global Governance(Jan/Mar 98)(Ibid.).Hedges "failed states" / "trusteeships" as politically sensitive terms, although many analysts suspect these may be toughest UN "peace/order/good government" challenges for 21st century, particularly in Africa. Surveys history of all UN "peace" operations, and concludes its greatest current problems weak orchestration of complex emergencies, and inclination to act as mediator when creation of order is first priority, followed by nurturing of stable democratic society. Kosovo(which post-dates writing)would seem more what Chopra has in mind, though with full UN political authority.


Jarat Chopra & Tanja Hohe"Participatory Intervention" Global Governance Vol.10/No.3 (Jul-Sep 04):-both authors served in UN Transitional Administration in East Timor(UNTAET)and offer thoughtful ideas abouthow UN should optimally build/modify political systems in troubled/new states - a responsibility that isgrowing in UN numbers and importance globally. Experience with administration intervention in Cambodia, East Timor, Kosovo, Namibia, and Somalia has been imperfect, but educational as to how future responsibilities could be improved by more carefully considering what actually constitute the "front lines" - "the level of local administration. Here, Western-style paradigm of state building, which ispreoccupied with forming a national executive, legislature, and judiciary, confronts resilient traditional structures, socially legitimate powerholders, abusive warlords out to win, or coping mechanisms communities rely on under conflict conditions. Options for establishment or reconstruction of governing institutions seem stark: either reinforce status quo and build on it, further empowering the already strong;or replace altogether what exists with new administrative order. But there may be middle road." Essay analyses latter.


Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.


Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s), (un)popularity, (dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle. Its new 99 Strategic Concept will re-commit it to "out-of-area" peacemaking operations.


Walter Clarke & Jeffrey Herbst "Somalia and the Future of Humanitarian Intervention" Foreign AffairsVol.75/No.2(Mar/ Apr 96):-fine account of errors/lessons of UN operation in Somalia. Concludes that, in failed states, UN operations cannot be either short or neutral, and may require installation of full UN administration.


Walter J. Clemens, Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham orRevolution? (17)Alternative Futures.


Harlan Cleveland, Birth of a New World: An Open Moment for International Leadership(San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers 93):-post-Cold War book by a top US diplomat/administrator who does not advocate a Pax Americana. Offers succinct description of many changes in, and dynamic characteristics of, post-industrial world.


David S.Cloud"Navy to Expand Fleet With New Enemies in Mind"New York Times 03 Dec 05:-"[US] Navy wants to increase its fleet.., reversing years of decline in naval shipbuilding and adding dozens of warships designed to defeat emerging adversaries, [US] officials say... While increasing fleet size is popular [in] Congress, plan faces various obstacles, including questions about whether affordable...andwhether mix of vessels is suitable to deal with emerging threats, like China's expanding navy... [F]leet reached its cold war peak... in 1987 and... steadily shrinking since then... 'Navy appears... grappling withneed to balance funding for supporting its role in the global war on terrorism against those for meetinga potential challenge from modernized Chinese maritime military forces' , said a naval analyst. [P]lan calls for building 55 small, fast vessels called littoral combat ships, which are being designed to allow Navy to operate in shallow coastal areas where mines and terrorist bombings are a growing threat. Costing less than $300m, littoral combat ship is relatively inexpensive... Choices have led some analysts tosuggest Navy is de-emphasizing threat from China, at least in early stages of the shipbuilding plan.Beijing's investment in submarines, cruise missiles and other weapon systems expected to pose major threat to US warships for at least a decade... 'This is not a fleet that is being oriented to Chinese threat', said analyst. 'It's being oriented around irregular warfare/stability operations/dealing with rogue states' .


Roger A. Coate edit.,U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations(New York: Twentieth Century Fund 94):-fine essays on UN political/organizational problems and realistic proposals retain global value sinceissues remain relevant and/or reforms underway. Spiers proposes administrative/ structural/peacemaking/ financial reforms. Coate urges inter-agency/ intra- government coordination of UN system. Blechman looks at new intra-state conflict/ preventive action challenges. Graham surveys IAEA proliferation/enforcement needs. Abram urges enforcement of human rights/humanitarian law. Loescher examines new scale/originsof refugees/displaced persons. Gordenker discusses WHO role/problems. Sessions/Steever explore challenges/constraints on Commission on Sustainable Development. Leonard picks UN priorities: security/ economy/ environment/humanitarian action/human rights.


Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic]prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".


Avner Cohen & Marvin Miller“Bringing Israel’s Bomb Out of the Basement: Has Nuclear Ambiguity Outlived Its Shelf Life?”(30-44) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.5 (Sep/Oct 10):-official summary:“For decades, Israel has maintained an ‘opaque’ nuclear posture - neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons. As pressure for Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty grows and Israel’s tensions with Iran mount, the time has come to reconsider this policy of nuclear ambiguity. Israel can loosen its policy of opacity without jeopardizing its security, and doing so would burnish its credentials as a responsible nuclear power”. Emphasized extracts:“For Israelis, nuclear opacity is one of Israel’s greatest strategic and diplomatic success stories”. “Most countries have followed Washington’s lead, accepting Israel’s opaque nuclear posture and treating Israel’s nuclear program as an exceptional case”. “Opacity undercuts the need for Israelis to be informed about issues that are literally matters of life and death”. “Israel should resist the view that military action is its only option for dealing with the perceived Iranian threat to its existence”. Final sentence: “[I]n order to deal effectively with the new regional nuclear environment and emerging global nuclear norms, Israel must reassess the wisdom of its unwavering commitment to opacity and also recognize that international support for its retaining its military edge, including its nuclear capability, rests on its retaining its moral edge”. Cohen is a Senior Fellow at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies and author of forthcoming book The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain With the Bomb. Miller is Research Associate in Science, Technology, and society Program at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He was Senior Research Scientist in MIT Nuclear Engineering Dept and has served as consultant to US State Department and Los Alamos and Oak Ridge National Labs. For annotated guide:“What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation”at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation.


Eliot A.Cohen"A Revolution in Warfare: Technology Strikes Again"Foreign Affairs Vol.75/No.2 (Mar/Apr 96):-contends that complete/real-time knowledge of battlefield(plus guided ammunition)changed warfare in virtually every sphere -including political." Might lead...to drastic shrinking of military, casting aside old forms of organization and creation of new ones, slashing of current force structure, and investment of unusually large sums in [R&D]."


Eliot A.Cohen"History and the Hyperpower"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-vast US scope, in comparison with any other state or group of states, gives it both capacities and opposition of past major empires(e.g. Rome, Britain), but its global interests/roles are unique and controversial. Author contendswell worth while to compare US positions and potential with historical styles/events/problems. "Historicalanalogy making rounds of late is notion that US today is an empire that can and should be compared with imperial powers of past...Casual talk of Pax Americana...implies that US is following pattern of imperial dominance that holds precedents and lessons. Metaphor of empire merits neither angry rejection nor gleeful embrace. It instead deserves careful scrutiny, because imperial history contains analogies and parallels that bear critically on current US predicament."


Roberta Cohen & Francis M. Deng Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal Displacement (Washington: Brookings 98):-thorough, containing many sound proposals. Written by Deng as UNSG representative on internally displaced persons(IDP).Numbers are big and growing(20-25m IDPs vs 20m refugees)affecting multiple UN roles (humanitarian/human rights/development/ peace/sovereignty)and bodies(DMTS/ ECHA/ ERC/ IOM/ OCHA/ ODIHR(UNHQ)/ UNDP/ UNHCR/ UNICEF/ UNIFEM/ UNRWA/ WFP/ WHO).Sections : Global View; Legal issues; Institutional issues; NGOs (Red Cross/Voluntary Agencies Council/etc.); Regional Groups; some Strategies/ Proposals; IDP Guiding Principles. For excellent summary of book by authors see "Exodus Within Borders" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.4(Jul/Aug 98).


Roberta Cohen "The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement: An Innovation in International Standard Setting" Global Governance Vol.10/No.4(Oct.-Dec. 04):-includes how and why global concern about internally displaced persons(IDP) has developed, particularly since Cohen/Deng source of 98(op.cit.). "It was not until 90s that absence of international system for IDPs began to be noticed and more traditional notions of sovereignty questioned. One of vivid examples of change in attitude was new set of international standards to protect persons forcibly uprooted in their own countries - Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Introduced into UN Commission on Human Rights 98, they set forth rights of IDPs and obligations of governments/international community toward these populations...GPs recast sovereignty as form of national responsibility toward one's vulnerable populations with role provided forinternational community when governments did not have capacity/willingness to protect their uprootedpopulations. Although not legally binding instrument like treaty, GPs quickly gained substantial internationalacceptance/authority.[Article analyses] origin/development of GPs, reasons for growing international usage,validity of reservations about them, and question whether process that developed them truly constitutes turning point in standard setting reflecting greater role for NGO community in developing internationalnorms of conduct for states."


Norm Coleman "Kofi Annan Must Go" Wall Street Journal 01 Dec 04(COMMENTARY):-Senator Coleman is chairman of US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a Minnesota Republican. Senate subcommittee of which he is chairman has beeninvestigating the UN oil-for-food program in Iraq which was intended 1996-2003 to enable Iraq to buy food and medicine in return for oil. Iraqi regime of the time is widely believed to have subverted the program on a huge scale to benefit Saddam Hussein. Hence Coleman blames Annan and calls for hisresignation. Warren Hoge "US, in Public Statement, Backs Annan in His UN Post" New York Times 10 Dec 04:-reports that US Ambassador John C. Danforth announced, on behalf of White House and State Department, that UN played a role in many areas of concern to US...and that Washington expected to work closely with Annan. Associated Press "Oil-For-Food Scandal May Harm UN Reforms" in NYT 10 Dec 04:-reports on several aspects of issue, including strong support of UN member states for Annan, but warns of unfortunate time clash with Annan's initiatives for critical UN reforms(see very vital "Annan" items).Economist 11 Dec 04 "The United Nations: Blaming Annan" (Edit.11):-emphasises that UNSG should not receive" the campaign of vilification being mounted against him by his detractors" since any judgementwould be premature. Moreover, "he is servant of his political masters. This general rule applied with aparticular vengeance in the oil-for-food program. UN set up a secretariat to manage the program, butmembers of UNSC maintained ultimate control. Every contract was scrutinised by committee of its 15 members. It was not Annan's fault that this committee became deadlocked." AP "Powell: U.N. on Track With Iraqi Support" in NYT 16 Dec 04:-both UN, as the most truly global institution, and its Secretary General Kofi Annan, have been receiving more than their chronic suspicion from recently re-elected US politicians. US' s Iraq policy unfortunately generates particular focus of disagreement. Secretary of State Colin Powell gives "understated praise...for preparations UN is making to support elections in Iraq, andUNSG Annan said world body will beef up its support if need be...Annan was also speaking on proposals to revamp UN and on US relations with world body in address to private Council on Foreign Relations." Warren Hoge "Secret Meeting, Clear Mission:'Rescue'U.N." NYT 03 Jan 05:-publicity on private gathering of senior pro-UN/UNSG Annan supporters generated some controversy, but was described by one participant as "to save Kofi and rescue UN" .Item covers issues/potential/improvements. Economist 08 Jan 05 "America and the United Nations:Kofi Creamed" (30-1):-reports[,without judging truth,]elements of US-conservatives' UN criticisms: Israel(op.cit.);Cuba (op.cit.);expense of funding(op.cit.),that from some viewpoints seems bent on shackling US power/spreading socialism; perceived UNSG feud over US invasion of Iraq(op.cit.); International Criminal Court(op.cit.); $64b oil-for-food program in Iraq(op.cit.). " Meanwhile, list of complaints against UN gets longer by day. There are US grumbles about[:]UN allegedmishandling of relief for tsunami disaster[;]wrangles...going on about UN's role in Darfur[;] charges ofrape/sexual abuse of children by UN peacekeepers in Congo[;]dispute over UN's unwillingness to providehelp for Iraqi special tribunal set up to try...Saddam Hussein...For a time it looked as if Bush administrationwould give[Norm Coleman op.cit.]campaign to unseat Annan its tacit support too. But it appears to have decided to back off. Weak UNSG at head of enfeebled UN might, after all, serve Bush's interests betterthan tougher one...Some 130 countries, including all members of EU, had already announced their full support...Annan has been taking steps to repair relations with Washington. He has already had what UN officials describe as' encouraging'meeting with Condoleezza Rice...He announced that Mark Malloch Brown, media savvy head of UNDP...is to take over as his chief of staff." Sharon Otterman "Q&A: The Oil-for-Food Scandal" Council on Foreign Relations 11 Jan 05:-provides at considerable length both history of survey program and much of information already available via organizations investigating its misuse by Saddam Hussein. These of course include a preliminary report by the UN Independent Inquiry Committeeled by Paul A. Volcker, former US Federal Reserve Chairman. Claudio Gatti "US Ignored Warning on Iraqi Oil Smuggling, UN Says" Financial Times 13 Jan 05:-provides unexpected information on the oil-for-food scandal. "Joint investigation by FT and Il Sole 24 Ore, Italian business daily, shows that single-largest andboldest smuggling operation in oil-for-food program was conducted with knowledge of US government." FT "UN Warned To Brace For Reform As Crisis Grows" in NYT 16 Jan 05:-contains number of UN reform essentials described by Malloch Brown in interview with FT. He warned UN" that there could be worse to come, and that its management would feel consequences from investigation into allegations of corruption in 'oil-for-food' program.[He]warned that it was no longer only institution's traditional, conservative criticsthat were calling for a shake-up...'It should be mainstream preoccupation of every government shareholder of UN.'[There]would be a comprehensive report in March by Annan on saving internationalsecurity system, making development work, and reforming UN to make that happen." Judith Miller "Annan Planning Deep Changes in U.N. Structure, Aide Says" NYT 17 Jan 05:-also quotes Malloch Brown onnecessary UN reforms and report that UNSG "trying to embark on series of changes in how organization is organized/does business...'UN must win back trust of US public and world public opinion'.[C]hangeswere likely to include deeper reshuffling of Annan's senior management team, changes in internal rulesand procedures aimed at diminishing secrecy and enhancing accountability. Structural changes would also be geared toward helping[UN]respond faster and more openly to crises." Many reports by otherexperts on UN, and US views. Economist 02 Apr 05"The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Torturing the United Nations"(Edit.12-3); The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Kofi, Kojo and a Lot of Shredded Documents"(29-30):-Editorial argues that:"Something rotten happened. But wait for all the facts before demanding Kofi Annan's head... Neither of Volcker's [interim]reports to date makes clear case against Annan himself... In short, [there is evidence] Annan has been a weak manager - even if, which remains to be proven, his ethics are as pure as snow... But UN is not a company. Ultimate power rests with member states, not a chief executive with a licence to issue whatever orders he likes. In the case of [oil-for-food scandal,] there is especially strong argument for reserving final judgment until Volcker issues final report... [T]hisprogram was set up and run closely by UNSC itself [and] Volcker has yet to pronounce on how much blame lies with Annan and how much with his political masters... Better to wait a few months until Volcker report is complete". Other article discusses key contents and effects of the Volcker committee's second interim report, just issued. Main points relate to possible misdeeds/profits of UNSG Kofi Annan's son Kojo, employed by Swiss firm Cotecna, and Iqbal Riza, UNSG's former chief-of-staff. Result is thatAnnan fails to receive the full exoneration he wanted. "[H]is reputation has been besmirched, his credibility undermined and his moral authority badly eroded". Economist 13 Aug 05"The United Nations: A Nasty Smell"(26-7):-material on this subject has been massive over the past several months, but most has not been critical of UNSG Annan or even of "crooked UN personnel". As consequence I have collected copies of all relevant oil-for-food items and mounted them in order together. If I have time, I will list all their titles/dates/publications in another new file in the RECENT DEVELOPMENTS section. Situation may now have become serious for UNSG since 13 Aug article states: "According to the investigation, which was led by Paul Volcker, a former chairman of US Federal Reserve, Benon Sevan, head of the oil-for-food program, 'corruptly benefited'from $150,000 in kickbacks from a friend's oil company. Report also alleges that a Russian in UN's procurement division, Alexander Yakovlev, solicited bribes to help an inspection contractor win a bid. Yakovlev has pleaded guilty, but Sevan has denied any wrongdoing. The oil-for-food scandal has been rumbling on pretty much since Saddam Hussein was deposed. This isfirst time that Volcker's commission, which was set up by [UNSG] Annan, has claimed unambiguously that UN officials have been on the take. US conservatives have seized on it as proof that UN is mismanaged". Rest of article deals with UN reforms being discussed.


Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.


Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.


Cindy Collins and Thomas G. Weiss, An Overview and Assessment of 1989-1996 Peace Operations Publications: Occasional Paper #28(Providence: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown Univ. 97):-any book ordering/ summarizing 2000-publications about globally critical issue is invaluable. Although prepared as research aid, concise text worth reading by itself for wealth of information/views it conveys on many big problems/decisions facing UN. Subjects: Root Causes of Armed Conflicts and Appropriate Responses; Decisions to Intervene(ethics, and UNSC/state processes); Planning and Implementing Intervention(UN, state, and NGO processes/relations).


Commonwealth Consultative Group on the Special Needs of Small States, Vulnerability: Small States in Global Society(London: Commonwealth Secretariat Pubs. 85):-UN now includes many small and indeed micro-states(latter having populations of less than 100,000).Almost any UN additions likely to be small in population and/or power, particularly if "Wilsonian" dictum strictly followed: that all "nations" have right to self-determination. Report by global group of senior personalities one of few authoritative sources focusing specifically on particular security problems of such states. It makes almost 80 realistic recommendations; large number involving UN System.


Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, Vital Force: A Proposal for the Overhaul of the UN Peace Operations System and for the Creation of a UN Legion(Cambridge: Commonwealth Institute 95):-detailed and fairly technical proposal, employing in-depth knowledge of modern military organization and capabilities. Like Government of Canada's simultaneous proposal(op.cit.)this was prepared in response to suggestion by UNSG(Boutros-Ghali)that UN-controlled rapid response capability needed. After identifying six problems affecting "authorization, planning, and execution of peace operations" , it proposes creation of four organizations: Military Advisory and Cooperation Council; multilateral Field Communication and Liaison Corps; strengthened Secretariat staff structure; four-brigade permanent standing force(UN Legion)plus field support structure(44,000 personnel).


Jocelyn Coulon, Soldiers of Diplomacy: The United Nations, Peacekeeping, and the New World Order(Toronto: Univ.of Toronto Press 98):-translated from French(Les Casques Bleus) considerably more thanvivid journalist account of visits to various UN peacekeeping forces at crucial historic times: Coulon one of Canada's best-informed, often very thoughtful, military commentators. First gives brief history of origin and first 30 years of peacekeeping. Then concentrates on UN "golden age" immediately after Cold War ended, and tells how and why explosion of unprepared-for activities overstretched system and created negativeover-reaction. Operations described, in terms of both personal narrative and political machinations, are those in Lebanon, Cambodia, Western Sahara, Somalia, and Bosnia. Final chapters address UN's problems/limitations - and opportunities.


Timothy Wallace Crawford "Why Minimum Force Won't Work: Doctrine and Deterrence in Bosnia and Beyond" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr/Jun 98):-since many diagnoses for failures of UN role in Bosnia, analyses problem for future through critique of doctrine(s)UN attempted, particularly "minimum force." Argument: Military deterrence coercion, which entails dropping peacekeeping rules like participants' consent/ minimum force. UN forces' credibility ability/will to take effective military action key to deterring local parties from attacking each other/UN.Threat includes offensive.


Mihailo Crnobrnja The Yugoslav Drama(Montreal: McGill-Queen's Univ. Press 94):-former Yugoslav ambassador takes well-informed/realistic, but also constructive, look at contemporary trauma in Balkans. Finding many causes/villains, he emphasises common needs/interests of area. Urges international community, particularly West, to play active and continuing role to reconstruct/integrate area, downgrading importance of borders and raising mutual interests.


Chester A. Crocker and Fen Osler Hampson, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict(Washington: US Institute of Peace Press 96):-42 expert/practical essays(675pp)offeringnew facts/thinking regarding global challenges, and how resulting conflicts might be met(e.g. by UN).Challenges include: many weak(or failed)states; ethnic conflicts; religio-cultural militancy; populationpressures; resource crises(shortages, disputes); global competition; radical military technology(Adams op.cit.);mega-terrorism. Stress on preventive action.


Barbara Crossette "Kofi Annan Unsettles Important People, as He Believes the U. N. Should Do" New York Times 31 Dec 99:-built around frank interview with UNSG, also contributes background, especially on UN-US relations. Annan, "soft-spoken aristocrat from Ghana[and]quiet insider with gentle sense of humor welcomed as healer" at time of bad US-UN relations. Three years after election, "turning out to be one of most provocative leaders[UN]ever known" . Speeches/reports castigate both UN and major powers "for doing nothing in face of predictable catastrophes" (Rwanda, Srebenica)and hit fellow Africans for shortcomings. Annan defends practical need for honest assessments and fault-finding, but has antagonized both Third World and influential Americans. 99 UNGA speech arguing right to intervene in state affairs if leaders abusetheir people drew fear from small nations and claims from senior US conservatives he was exceeding powers. Personal diplomatic initiatives(Iraq, Libya)criticized, but he stressed he was only doing his job. Much of Annan's independence derives from his selection of strong and expert advisors.


Barbara Crossette "Europe Stares at a Future Built by Immigrants" New York Times 02 Jan 00:-probes effects of a decreasing EU population. "To survive economically and socially, Europe may have to...change its racial and ethnic face through mass migration of labor from around[world, finding]itself debating moves toward a social structure that looks more like[North]America's" . In latter" whole idea of citizenship is thatanyone from anywhere can become naturalized" . In Europe, citizenship is usually" still linked to ethnic heritage, or at least to language and culture" . UN experts suggest logical response to declining size is "replacement migration" . To maintain population size, EU would need 35m immigrants by 2025; to maintain pensioner-worker ratio would require 135m. Surplus(skilled) Third World labor is plentiful; so is North American competition for it. Dilemma for Europe(and Japan)is that such mass immigration would at least change, and probably diversify, culture of receiving country. Economist 06 May "Europe's Immigrants: A Continent on the Move" (25-7)looks at situation from economic rather than sociological point of view. Essay sees political problems, but is more sanguine. Western Europe has been absorbing migrants since WWII. Trend now is for seasonal migration, and new source is East Europe.


Barbara Crossette "U.N. Studies How Refugees Qualify to Get Assistance" New York Times 14 Jan 00:-UNSC debate on what Roberta Cohen(Masses in Flight op.cit.)called "absurdity" ;Brookings: "one of most pressing humanitarian, human rights and political issues now facing global community" . Most of 20m+ internally displaced persons(IDPs) ineligible to receive UN assistance simply because not(yet)crossed border out of own country. Many forced from homes(often by own governments who prefer world excluded); most in more danger/distress than those able to reach border; some interspersed with/indistinguishable from "recognized" refugees; often far outnumber latter(Angola: 1-2m to 370,000).UNHCR Ogata stressed how inherent IDP geographic/political/security problems made worse by WWII-vintage definitions. UNSCsupportive of new rules/arrangements for new conditions, with UNHCR in charge.


Barbara Crossette "Advocates for Children Joining U.N. Peacekeeping Missions" New York Times 18 Feb 00:-for first time, UN will assign full-time children's advocates to top operational staff abroad of all peacekeeping missions. Announced by Olara A.Otunnu, Special Representative of SG for Children and Armed Conflict. First advocate assigned for Sierra Leone where atrocities against(and by)children have been particularly serious, and two will be assigned to UN force in Congo, so far all from UNICEF. Otunnu explained: " For protection and welfare of children to be taken seriously, and not be marginalized, we must have[advocates]within central political structure" .Will advise Mission heads, coordinate all child assistance groups, determine necessary programs for children and(since civil war combatants may ignore Conventions)also mobilize public opinion.


Barbara Crossette "The U.N.'s Unhappy Lot: Perilous Police Duties Multiplying" New York Times 22 Feb 00:-describes challenge facing UN in finding/managing very large number of police officers demanded by new peacekeeping duties and dangers.(For history of UN police activities, see Oakley op.cit.)UN Peacekeeping Operations' total staff of 400 must find/deploy nearly 9,000 specially qualified officersimmediately(almost 5,000 for Kosovo, 2000+for Bosnia, 1,640 for East Timor).For first time, UN police in Kosovo/East Timor have direct executive law enforcement powers and in Kosovo will be armed. Less than half Kosovo force has arrived(and some returned as unqualified).Thus in assuming responsibility for law and order, UN police activities not only grown but become more varied/complex/ delicate/hazardous. Many worried that current assignments will exceed UN capacity.


Barbara Crossette "Smuggling of Iraqi Oil Is Rising, U.N. Is Told" New York Times 24 Mar 00; "Annan Exhorts U.N. Council on 'Oil for Food'for Iraqis" 25 Mar 00; "Security Council Votes to Let Iraq Buy Oil Gear" 01 Apr 00; The Economist 12 Feb 00 "One Man's Joy in Iraq" (41-2):-summaries ignore" current events" unless text has permanent/long-term significance. UN sanctions against Iraq in 00 illustrate extremely well problems raised by chronic sanctions issues, and how they could influence both Iraq and US by 01-03. Among those either inherent from start and/or critical by 00:(1)scale/variety/severity of sanctions imposed(most ambitious UN pressure applied);(2)(dis)unity of SC members over sanctions' aims/targets/ costs/means(P5 increasingly split);(3)authority/popularity/mettle/world economic integration/ vulnerability/ value of target regime(Saddam runs tight political/media system, is personally at threat but tough about others, and holds pretty strong economic hand);(4)strategic importance of target state/its people/friends/resources/military capacity/philosophy(Iraq both very strong/very weak).


Barbara Crossette "U.S. Ready for Much Larger Security Council" New York Times 04 Apr 00:-update on long attempt at UNSC membership reform. In spite of major power shifts and huge membership growthsince 45, five permanent (veto-wielding)members remain unchanged, while 183 states now share 10 rotating seats. Yet powerful Council must be decisive, and was never intended to be representative. Fassbender(op.cit.)explains basic dilemma: Council can become more equal, representative, or effective - but never all three. Article reports some small progress: US no longer demands limit of 20-1 seats, so 28are now proposed. This may ease deadlock on(permanent)regional seats. Since France and UK refuseto pass permanent status to EU, Germany and(?)may be added. Japan plus 2-3 Asian seats become feasible.Africa and Latin America could also have more flexibility for aspirants.


Wendy Cukier "International Fire/Small Arms Control" (73-90)Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1(Fall 98):-describes close links between firearms control as element of domestic crime prevention and growing body of international small arms controls, and urges more cooperation. Common strategy should include:conflict prevention/peace building; disarmament; injury prevention, safety and health promotion; crime prevention/security. After providing statistics on global/national threat posed by small arms, essay describesdifferent perspectives on intervention to prevent casualties. Then discusses data collection/surveillance;sources of firearms/small arms; various methods of controlling supply(limits on access; controls on manufacture/sales/transfers; removal from circulation by amnesties/buy-backs). "Multi-layered, comprehensive [diversified]approach is essential" .


Ivo Daalder & Jan Lodal "The Logic of Zero: Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons"(80-95) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"US nuclear policy remains stuck in the Cold War even as the threats the United States faces - nuclear terrorism chief among them - have changed. Washington must lead the way to a world without nuclear weapons, and the first step is for US to dramatically limit its own nuclear arsenal's size and declared purpose". Daalder is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Lodal is immediate past President of the Atlantic Council of the US and a former senior Defense Department and White House official in the administrations of Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Bill Clinton.


Lori Fisler Damrosch edit. Enforcing Restraint: Collective Intervention in Internal Conflicts(New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press 93):-not just quickly out-of-date reports on six cases of internal conflictstudied, i.e. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Haiti, Liberia, Somalia, and Cambodia. Each expert tries to draw from themlessons of more general value. Hence they can be used as background or source material for other studies of these cases.

 

Donald C.F.Daniel, Bradd C.Hayes & Chantal deJonge Oudraat, Coercive Inducement and the Containment of International Crises(Washington:US Institute of Peace Press 99):-novel look at various multilateral peace operations since 88. Effort is valuable as new diversity/complexity/cost brought confused or bad mandates/structures/ resources/motives/aims/hopes. Worse, many overwhelmed(so undermined)UN system both unprepared and unable to handle them. Address many operations between traditional peacekeeping(firm ceasefire/both sides' consent/fully impartial/minimum self-defense)and military enforcement. Middle option termed Coercive Inducement(CI): "judicious resort to coercive diplomacy or forceful persuasion by international community in order to implement community norms or mandates vis-a-vis all parties to particular crisis." UN operations in Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda, Haiti analysed to show effects of abiding by or contravening principles of CI:(1)Inducement Contingents(ICs)function under aegis of leading state or coalition in operations endorsed by UN.(2)CI personnel represent both moral authority andcredible force.(3)While aspiring for as much universality as possible, ICs primarily reflect capabilities that make for immediately effective crisis responses.(4)IC personnel assume no more than provisional consent, so act to impose community will on recalcitrant parties.(5)While not intending to harm anyone's interests, IC must implement mandates even when doing so prejudices interests of one or more party.(6)Force may be used for other than self-defense, but should not exceed minimum to cause desired behaviour.(7)IC mustplan to minimize casualties while preparing for worst. End offers operational guidelines when following CI principles, and circumstances that make it essential.

 

Gustav Daniker, The Guardian Soldier: On the Nature and Use of Future Armed Forces(Geneva: United Nations UNIDIR 36 95):-thoughtful analysis by Swiss military strategist of effects and opportunities brought by end of Cold War. Sees security as multi-faceted, long-sighted, and aimed at stability - not destruction.

 

Tobias Debiel, "Strengthening the UN as an Effective World Authority: Cooperative Security Versus Hegemonic Crisis Management" Global Governance Vol.6/No.1(Jan/Mar 00):-neither as academic or utopian as title might suggest, looks at very practical/pertinent issue of what UN can and should do to be more effective in peacekeeping and crisis prevention roles. Such roles increase in importance as consensus develops: national sovereignty may be curtailed in exceptional humanitarian circumstances. Argued: world, unready for legally-bound multilateralism, and widely opposed to superpower-driven coercion,must turn to cooperative security - willing collaboration of all types of bodies: interest groups/relevantstates/regional organizations. Core element UN must create "standby capacities for early warning/conflict management/peacekeeping; reform of non-military sanctions instrument; and speedy institution ofinternational criminal court" (39).

 

Louis A.Delvoie "The Kosovo War: A Long Catalogue of Losers" Behind the Headlines Vol.57/No.2,3(Winter/ Spring 00):-NATO's 99 air campaign against rump "Yugoslavia" has had many supporters and critics.Former mainly argue that it succeeded in noble humanitarian aim of relieving Kosovars from Serbian oppression; latter argue force was itself wrong and/or stress absence of UN imprimatur. Author seeks those involved that were net losers in conflict. NATO: hurt its image/reputation/future effectiveness bylaunching war of aggression, ending its credibility as purely defensive alliance; United Nations: sidelined/marginalized, lost any post-Gulf hope it might play its Charter peace/ security role; OSCE: reputation/credibility suffered when its 1,300 Observers had to withdraw hastily when many of OSCE members attacked state where they were to keep peace; Kosovars: NATO's "beneficiaries" suffered hundreds dead and thousands displaced before bombing, but thousands dead, hundreds of thousands displaced once twodeterrents(OSCE plus threat to bomb)ceased to restrain; Serbs: suffered "collateral" casualties, food/watershortages as infrastructure hit, and vast long-term economic loss from bombing/sanctions; Balkan Stability:lost in refugee floods, revived ethnic tension; "New European Security Architecture" :Russia reacted withanger/ condemnation, needing much time/effort to defuse; US: lost in stature/credibility e.g. through suddenchange in KLA image, public policy it would not risk ground troops, ominous intelligence error on Chinese Embassy; Western Governments: caught with double standards over Serbia/Chechnya. Many lessons to be learned.

 

Francis M.Deng et al. Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa(Washington: Brookings 96):- conclusion of 7-volume project to help governments/international community deal with conflicts in least stable continent(Reader op.cit.).Probes African states' responsibility: balance sovereignty sanctity against transborder political/ economic/moral relevance of human rights violations/internal violence. Project concludes UN has unique role to play in Africa as both mediator and healer.


Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.


Claudia H.Deutsch "Unlikely Allies Join With the United Nations" New York Times 10 Dec 99:- "Across the world, huge companies that once shrugged off United Nations as worthy, if often ineffectually bureaucratic, do-good agency, now viewing it as valuable partner." Cites many cases of MNC-UN collaboration/ usefulness to business, UN/countries getting aid. MNCs increasingly realize UN/UNDP open doors, act as valuable buffer with officials, open new markets. More general cooperation(e.g. human rights/ entrepreneurship training)may help promote stability in countries with civil unrest, improve local business technique/experience, create bridges to communities. UN, for its part, gets part of and influence on vastpool of FDI, ensures access to unique expertise and resources; yet, by not promoting specific companies,guards its neutrality and stimulates competition.

 

John Deutch, Harold Brown, and John P. White, "National Missile Defense: Is There Another Way?" Foreign Policy No.119(Summer 00):-three top defense politicians believe some NMD system "critical" to US future homeland defense, but initial system as planned is not best approach as it fails to address several threatsfaced. Propose building on theater missile defense(TMD)systems already under development against intermediate-range ballistic missiles since:(1)more balanced way to address varied missile threats;(2)offersboth technical/cost advantages; (3)more responsive to concerns of Russia, China, many US allies; (4)eases process of modifying ABM Treaty. Rationale:(1)ICBMs hardly most likely threat to US; theater missile threat particularly urgent;(2)present NMD program pursues too many options; driven by schedules rather than events; artificially separates NMD from TMD when latter can be upgraded(boost-phase)at less cost; (3)US must start budgeting against cruise missile or aircraft attack, and spend more on surreptitiousterrorist attacks;(4)impact on relations with Russia, China, allies of deploying NMD as planned likelysevere. TMD would not violate ABM or threaten Russia and, if sea-based off DPRK, threaten China less. For (pro/con) LETTERS regarding article, see Foreign Policy Sep/Oct 00(new format/bimonthly).

 

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

 

David B.Dewitt, David G.Haglund & John J.Kirton, edit., Building a New Global Order: Emerging Trends in International Security(Toronto: Oxford Univ. Press 93):-varied group of essays analysing security impact of post-Cold War realities and trends on power relations, on international issues(military, economic, cultural, environmental, demographic)and on various "institutions" particularly UN, but also on NATO, G-7, treaties, etc.


Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.


Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.

 

Larry Diamond Promoting Democracy: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives (Washington: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict 95):-report to Commission describes organizations(including UN), activities, techniques and limitations, all of which help to promote democracy's worldwide spread and support.

 

David Dollar & Lant Pritchett Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-this World Bank Policy Research Report described by The Economist 14 Nov 98(88)as henceforth "the book on foreign aid." Drawing on new research material/long-term surveys, ODA has been "highly effective, totally ineffective, and everything in between" (2).Secret is good governance(for instance in state rebuilding):(1)financial aid really works only in good policy environment;(2)truly wanted improvements in Third World economic institutions/policies key to "quantum leap" in poverty reduction;(3)aid can then complement FDI;(4)value of aid is knowledge that strengthens good policy(most finance fungible); (5)active civil society helps lot;(6)in most distorted environments, donors should focus on good advice (particularly to any reformers), not money - presumably extremely important in failed or post-conflict states. Best aid investment is very poor but well-managed countries.

 

A. Walter Dorn "Keeping Tabs on a Troubled World: UN Information-Gathering to Preserve Peace" Security Dialogue Vol.27/No.3(Sep 96):-provides excellent summary reasons for UN's urgent need for security- relevant information of all kinds, of currently improving situation and future prospects. "Intelligence and Peacekeeping: The UN Operation in the Congo, 1960-64" co-authored with David Bell in International Peacekeeping Vol.2/No.1(Spring 95)provides detailed example of key role of intelligence for UN operations. In this operation, UN force did its own collection.

 

Margaret P. Doxey International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective: Second Edition(London: Macmillan Press 96):-definitive guide to non-military sanctions. Describes/assesses all major cases since WWI:Italy(1935), Yugoslavia(by USSR),Cuba, Rhodesia, South Africa, Egypt(by Arab League),Iran, USSR(re Afghanistan/Poland), Argentina, Iraq, Yugoslavia/Serbia, Libya, Haiti. Includes: definition, history, types(political, cultural-communications, economic);contexts, frameworks, intentions; costs and burden-sharing;implementation; impact on targets(their vulnerability and response);UN problem areas:(a)decisions to impose/remove;(b)sharing of cost and collateral damage; © problems of coordination, monitoring and policing.

 

Margaret P. Doxey United Nations Sanctions: Current Policy Issues: Revised Edition(Halifax: Dalhousie Univ. 99):-containing information up to Apr 99. Appendix offers basic facts about all sanctions imposed under UN Charter(Chap. VII).Text examines four issues subject to debate: (1)Domestic economic costs of sanctions to "sending" states and prospects for burden-sharing. Options: financial help; tariff adjustments;technical/humanitarian assistance; specific help on sanctions enforcement.(2)Mitigation on humanitarian grounds of sanctions-induced hardships in "targets" . Ideally, punishment fits crime but scope for: improving ways to determine need; handling humanitarian exemptions; avoiding abuse through monitoring.(3)Determining scope for direct targeting of leaders and elite groups. Types of targeted sanctions: personal travel restrictions; limit/end international bodies' membership(privileges); limit air links; cultural/ sports boycotts; financial sanctions(freezing assets)-most promising, but speed/information/ selection/discipline critical.(4)Improved administration/enforcement. Much effort underway to improve work of Sanctions Committees; humanitarian issues handled better, but to detect/ control serious violations of sanctions regimes still strictly limited.


Margaret P.Doxey"Sanctions Through the Looking Glass: The Spectrum of Goals and Achievements" International Journal Vol.LV/No.2(Spring 00):-expert, realistic look at recent UN experience with sanctions, and at current thinking on how they could be improved. (All Chapter VII sanctions to Jan 00 are listed.)Security Council use of sanctions has increased greatly since 1990(earlier it approved only two: Rhodesia, South Africa); hence study of optimum use has also expanded. US has been keenest supporter, but public opinion in many democracies under media pressure, has increased demands governments "do something" about human rights violations - broadening both "targets" and "goals" and changing criteria of success. Political effective might now include not only gaining compliance, but also stigmatizing or containingtargets, and as means of preventing or deterring certain action. Success is harder to judge, particularly whenmultiple pressures, to both apply and satisfy. All are analysed. Finally, essay discusses means of focusing sanctions better, not only on elites but away from innocents.


Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.


Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known ascrusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion".Other elements are described: the serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis andrecommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.

 

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

 

William J. Durch edit. UN Peacekeeping, American Politics, and the Uncivil Wars of the 1990s(New York: St. Martin's Press 96):-provides good history of/rationale for negative trends in US policies towards UN and peacekeeping in post-Cold War period, but particularly since Mogadishu(most succinctly in 10-7; more detail in 35-67). Rest of 500pp offer full diplomatic accounts of UN operations -faults/lessons- in El Salvador/Angola/Cambodia/Yugoslavia/ Mozambique/ Somalia/Rwanda/Russian borderlands.

 

Gwynne Dyer, "Globalization and the Nation-State" Behind the Headlines Vol.53/No.4(Summer 96):-a morepositive view of some major global trends than they are usually perceived. Dyer notes that violence is down/localized; vastly improved communications accelerates democracy; unemployment/income disparities may mainly reflect transitions.


Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and broad publications being written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The widely-known author of this book, however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly, even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a number of the great powers, climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats' to its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant probability of wars, including even nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover). The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible and worrisome scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in a region suffering from the experience of climate change. The other is the author's carefully quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008 personal interviews.


Erik Eckholm "U.S. and China Agree on Steps to Fight Drugs" New York Times 20 Jun 00:-Barry McCaffrey,director of White House drug-control policy, made unprecedented tour of China/Vietnam/Thailand to expand bilateral anti-drug cooperation. Reports that in Beijing he signed formal agreement to share information/evidence related to drug smuggling. Two already cooperated to stop illegal drug shipments, but both sides predicted more wide-ranging collaboration since face common serious novel problems of drug manufacture/use. Main concerns heroin and methamphetamine with latter fast-rising threat now produced in both countries. US/China may soon share intelligence in several areas: drugs-related/money-laundering/even weapons-smuggling. Associated Press "US Says Speed Is Worst Drug Menace" NYT 23 Jun:-picked up story in Bangkok. Here both sides agreed greatest menace methamphetamine/ "speed" sinceeasy to make/offers criminal organizations bigger profits than even heroin. Speed in Thailand mostlyproduced by ethnic armies in Myanmar(Burma)and poses new challenge following Thais' "enormous success" in reducing opium cultivation: estimate 600m speed pills will smuggle into Thailand from Myanmar this year. Meanwhile The Economist 24 Jun "A Tidal Wave of Drugs" (42):-reports growing problems in Caribbean. Once again become favoured route of Colombian drug traffickers. US officials estimate almost200 tonnes of cocaine were shipped through Caribbean islands to US last year, increase of 75% over 97, overwhelming control efforts. Some 67 tonnes transited Haiti in 99 without single conviction. "Economics against drug fighters" -tonne of cocaine fetches $100m in New York - more than entire annual government revenue of smaller islands. Societies pay in growing crime/distrust/corruption/intimidation/weapon imports. But relentless demand ensures relentless supply...

 

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

 

The Economist 28 Jun 97 "Only the Bangs are Genuine" (68):-rare subject: proliferation of counterfeit weapons, including why, where and how they are made. Subject relevant to land-mines since they can befully effective even if home-made [Afghan?],and perhaps even more so if "mine-field" consists entirely offakes or is sheer bluff.

 

The Economist 02 Jan 99 "The 21st-Century Army: A New But Risky Sort of War" (28-9):-some of latest training/ weaponry being tested by US Marine Corps. Training is designed for "low-intensity conflicts" i.e. peace-making/ peace-enforcement operations where lower-rank leaders make major decisions. Planners anticipate "three-block wars" in which troops "would simultaneously be distributing food and medicine to frantic civilians in one part of city, quelling rioters/maintaining order in another; fighting guerrillas in third" - typical UN-type challenges(Haiti/Somalia/Bosnia).New weapons include "non-lethal munitions" such as bean-bagprojectiles, pepper spray, blinding flashlights, adhesive foam, plus double-option guns able to fire lethally or non-lethally. Hope US, allies, presumably UN can keep ahead.

 

The Economist 27 Feb 99 "Japan's Constitution: The Call to Arms" (23-5):-very controversial element of UN reform relates to expanding membership of Security Council(UNSC). Single most eager/naturaladditional permanent member Japan, second-largest economy in world/second biggest contributor to UN budget. But UNSC responsibility to maintain international peace and security, so members expected to play major role in UN peacemaking. But Article 9 of Japan's Constitution renounces "threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes." While Japan maintains modern Self-Defence Force, many oppose it being used abroad, even in UN peacekeeping activities. Essay discusses current debate in Japan over use of its armed forces.

 

The Economist 17 Apr 99 "Refugees: Exporting Misery" (23-7):-origins, political/military uses, ultimate destinies, of many past refugee issues, designed to help determine Serb aims and NATO options in Kosovo. While global number/exploitation/impact of refugees seem to have escalated recently, tragedy so chronic that historical lessons can be drawn. Nature of triggering conflict(ideological/ethnic/economic)and how it ends are critical. Ethnic conflicts most difficult to end, while reconciliation aids resettlement. Of four types of basic refugee assistance(safe havens in homeland; camps nearby; more distant resettlement; permanent repatriation), experience and circumstances favour repatriation in spite of difficulty/high cost. Additional lessons: separate refugees from combatants; give them some choice of location if movement necessary; or of timing if repatriation possible.

 

The Economist 05 Jun 99 "Africa's Democratic Joys and Tribulations" (43):-while most African countrieshave officially embraced democracy, it is in fact encountering "immense difficulties." By late 80s Africa contained only four functioning multi-party democracies: Botswana, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritius. Then like other areas, at least its opinion-makers were greatly influenced by democratic revolution that swept through Soviet empire. Under foreign and/or domestic pressure, African dictators were forced to hold elections. In90s 42 more sub-Saharan military dictatorships or one-party states out of 50 have held elections(some sort).In first ones, only ten governments were changed; in second, only two. Incumbents, however bad, tend to win elections, and there is rampant vote manipulation. "Democracy" did not improve economics, create viable Oppositions, or reduce ethnic rivalries.

 

The Economist 11 Dec 99 "The Non-Governmental Order: Citizens' Groups" (20-1):-how and why "citizens' groups" (NGOs) are increasingly powerful at corporate, national, international level, and whether representmove towards "international civil society" or "dangerous shift of power to unelected and unaccountablespecial-interest groups" . Their growth was enabled by: communism's fall; democracy's spread; technological change; economic integration. Reflects concern over: environment; labour-human-consumer rights; poverty; jobs; etc. Rapid, mass news dispensing or joint action are promoted by: democratisation; technology.Number: international NGOs: 26,000; national NGOs: US - 2m; India - 1m; East Europe - 0.1m. Membershipin one NGO can exceed .5m. Roles: deliver services(NGOs dispense more aid than UN system); others stressadvocacy. "Technical groups" specialize providing expert analysis/ information and assist planners, decision-makers, negotiators, advocates at all levels. Governments can be helped, manipulated or blocked; some international organizations/corporations can co-opt such NGOs(World Bank); others may fail(controversial IOs and MNCs).

 

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "NGOs: Sins of the Secular Missionaries" (25-7):-fairly critical view of roles/motives of some NGOs, neither as essentially descriptive as Weiss-Gordenker or Economist 11 Dec 99, nor as strongly negative as Maren(all op.cit.).Aim essentially to warn all concerned that handling verylarge funds, competition in situ with often huge numbers of rival NGOs, and/or getting heavily dependenton regular government, corporate or media support, can deform even best intentions. For instance" [s]omeprimarily helpers, distributing relief where needed; some mainly campaigners, existing to promote issuesdeemed important by their members,[but in practice not always everywhere]altruistic, idealistic and independent." Varied activities - both constructive and questionable - described, as is their new Code of Conduct. Chief failing may be lack of accountability.

 

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "The Rules of Secession" (22):- Editor raises hot question: Is there right to secede?If "sophisticated states are no longer neurotically attached to bits of territory" , but would not welcome "new profusion of tiny tribal states" it offers four principles with which to judge demands:(1) "Secession should neither be encouraged nor discouraged...it is in itself neither good nor bad" . [Even, like Editor, ignoring violent emotions/ greed as dangerous/bad motives for secession(see 4 Mar Economist: "War and Money..." )there are other inherently serious "bad" secessions, particularlycreation of non-viable states: East Timor?apartheid's" Bantustans" ?Bosnia? Kosovo?rump Canada minus Quebec?.](2) "It should be carried out only if clear majority(well over 50%-plus-one of voters)have freely chosen" .[Ducks absolutely critical question of who gets to vote: all in Ireland?Ulster?Cyprus? Bosnia?Canada?;all(but only?)ethnic group members of which some want to secede:Quebecois?francophones in Canada?in Belgium?Kurds?Punjabis?Kashmiris?;all deeply affected by secession: all Canadians?](3) "Secessionist territory must offer guarantees that any minorities it drags along will be decently treated" .[One's "decency" is another's "oppression" so who sets/judges/imposes guarantees?; what if some refuse to be "dragged" :change borders?secessions within secessions?resettlement(i.e. "cleansing" )?](4) "Secessionists should be able to make reasonable claim to be national group" .[Since" Bosnians" could not, cannot, and for long will not be able to do so, who decides?when and how much should numbers/history count(Palestine)?latest inter/intra-state/ethnic borders often produce fatal new units(Tito's mis-divided Yugoslavia?Quebec?)so how(much)respected?]

 

The Economist 04 Mar 00 "War and Money: The Business of Conflict" (46-8):-while land/people conquesthas long been goal of warfare, such "fixed assets" can now be costly and unstable. Report by ICRC(Forum: War, Money and Survival,Geneva:Mar 00)argues: "Prolonged internal violence in[lands]with rich natural resources but corrupt or weak governments may best be understood as battles for money or[marketable]resources...Some wars are caused in large part by corruption and banditry...whereas otherswhich may have begun as ethnic or ideological conflicts, are now sustained in part by illicit trading[Afghan opium, Colombian cocaine]. Rebels, governments and even peacekeepers have fought for diamonds, minerals and timber in recent wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone" . Many participants(arms/other traders, mercenaries)may prefer to continue to exploit a war rather than win and end it. Such "resource" wars are particularly hard to end if the" fighters" have no goal but profit. Trade sanctions may help;then smugglers gain. As example of key role of diamonds in financing bloody and protracted war in Angola, see Barbara Crossette "Report on Angola Sanctions is Challenged in the U.N." New York Times 16 Mar 00. One in series of fine articles on expert investigation for Security Council's Angola Sanctions Committee, it reports two African presidents, Bulgarian government and diamond exchange in Antwerp were inter alia implicatedin smuggling and sale of Angolan diamonds by UNITA rebels, contrary to UN sanctions. Canadian committeechairman has called for action against sanctions-busters, first time a sanctions committee has actively enforced embargo. Corrective action was promised. For full account of diamonds' role in conflicts: Blaine Harden "Africa's Gems: Warfare's Best Friend" NYT 06 Apr. Expert claims 10-15% of world supply comes from war zones. World Bank report goes further and blames outbreak and/or continuation of vast majority of recent civil wars, not on ethnic motives, but on greed for control of valuable commodities like diamonds, other gemstones, narcotics, oil, coffee etc. Joseph Kahn "World Bank Blames Diamonds and Drugs for Many Wars" NYT 16 Jun sees two conclusions: discourage states from becoming too heavily dependent on commodities, and control their illicit sale before/during conflict. Barbara Crossette, "Singling Out Sierra Leone, U.N. Council Sets Gem Ban" NYT 06 Jul:-action by UNSC in latter direction: it" imposed worldwide ban on purchase of rough diamonds from Sierra Leone until its government can establish system to certify origin of stones being exported, and begins to assert authority over diamond fields" . Most are now under rebel control, with stones smuggled out through Liberia. Resolution is admittedly experimental, but aims at roots of war, reflects growing cooperation from both industry/governments, and may signal major new UN peacemaking tool. Economist 08 Jul "Is That a Rebel Rock on Your Finger?" (42):-notes West African governments(with US support) prevented extending ban to Liberia, but it may at least lower smugglers' prices-up to 50%. Associated Press "Diamond Industry Acts to Halt Trade in Illicit Gems From Africa" NYT20 Jul: World Diamond Congress, conscious that growing horror about "blood diamonds" could seriously hurt trade, has arranged means(verifiable certificates of place of origin)to track diamonds mine/retailer and applyheavy penalties(ban licences)to who break rules.

 

The Economist 25 Mar 00 "Water: A Soluble Problem" (20); "Nor Any Drop to Drink" (69-70):-both editorial and major essay argue that growing global shortage of fresh water reflects massive and unnecessary waste-which can be eliminated if it is simply priced realistically. Some facts(see also Annan): more thanbillion people have no access to safe water and 3b lack adequate sanitation. This threatens all withdisease and drought. Meanwhile, water tables overused, with many falling by meter or more/year. "[W]orlddemand for fresh water will grow sharply, by 70%(for household use)by 2025. Shortages seem inevitable-and even war" (20). Yet much is wasted: most domestic water use not metered, while subsidies worth billions positively encourage waste in farming/industry. Instead, price water(just)above cost of provision and disposal, aiding only poorest. Private investment($180b a year)will come.

 

The Economist 13 May 00 "Hopeless Africa" (Edit.17); "The Heart of the Matter" (22-4):-analyses of Africa's multiple and multiplying problems similar to those of Bayart, Ellis and Hibou(op.cit.).Editorial deals mainly with Sierra Leone, and difficulty, but long-term necessity, of robust UN interventions. Item tries to explainwhy so much gone so wrong, so consistently. Like Reader(op.cit.)it relates emphasis onfamily/friends/local loyalties to geography, climate, disease, isolation. Yet it blames political/economicfailures, and tendencies toward self-serving, corrupt, exploitative autocracy(even if hidden by veneer of democracy)as much on outside influences - disruptive colonial experience/donor paternalism - as on continental culture of survival. Way out does not yet lie through facade of democracy, but first bysomehow creating self-confidence/mutual trust. John Stremlau "Ending Africa's Wars" Foreign AffairsVol.79/No.4(Jul/Aug 00):-agrees about serious problem of African(mostly internal)conflicts, but sees true democracy as key to solution. Argues democracy would help prevent wars before they start, since most result from bad governance. "Weak, authoritarian African governments lack institutional capacity to manage factional struggles" ; they exclude ethnic groups, and allow poverty and gross income inequality- thus producing conflict. International intervention should respond - between Somalian-Rwandan extremes, but it needs reliable regional partners. South Africa fills this need politically/economically, and should be supported, including in UN.

 

The Economist 20 May 00 "Risky Returns: Business in Difficult Places" (85-8):-addresses major global problem involving investment/poverty/violence/instability/human rights/governance/crime - UN deals with all. Claims that while some places seem too violent/chaotic for business, with care and courage it is feasible: UNCTAD even reports average FDI return in Africa 91-7 higher than in any other region. HenceFDI in world's 44 poorest countries, while tiny, has tripled over decade, with fossil fuels/minerals/utilitiesbig attractions. Dangers: security, useless contracts/laws, economic collapse, NGO attack, statecontrols(not seizure). Counter-action: fences/guards/alarms; defensive driving/diplomacy; localknowledge/hiring; anti-corruption briefing/training; transparency/high standards (particularly human rights/finance/environmental areas); insurance/subcontracting; crisis-/evacuation-pre-planning.

 

The Economist 01 Jul 00 "The Poor Who Are Always With Us" (46):-UN/World Bank/IMF/OECDissued "situation report" on commitments made at World Summit for Social Development. "A Better World for All: Progress Towards the International Development Goals" , four's first joint report, fromwww.paris21.org/betterworld/ or free in booklet form from OECD BookShop. Economist's summary contains bad news. In 1998 there were 1.2b people in dire poverty, same absolute number as in 1990, and make upnearly Б population of sub-Saharan Africa and more than 550m in South Asia. World school enrolment has risen slightly, but girls' attendance remains almost as low as 1990. Infant mortality shows only tiny improvement(AIDS). Since 1990, global ODA has dropped from $60b+ to $55b a year while private capital flow to LDCs, though increased to $100b+ in 1998, includes much short-term spending and rarely goes to neediest. Trade lost to LDCs through restrictions and subsidies equals $700b annually. Report also criticizescorrupt or incompetent government/military spending for most of needy countries' problems, and urges reduced inflation and public spending.

 

The Economist 05 Aug 00 "Engage and Prosper" (Edit.22-3); "Peacekeeping: The UN's Missions Impossible" (Essay:24-6); "Road-Mending in Lebanon" (Note:25); "Kouchnerism in Kosovo" (Note:26):-editorial, essay and notes have one subject in common: role of United Nations. Leader makes point US took lead in 1945, creating UN System and its rules; later helped build UN-centred global network of legal economic and security rules. Yet" pre-eminent victor of Cold War has failed to provide leadership needed to build kind of international system unruly post-Cold-War world demands" .Instead it chooses rules it obeys, or those it ignores - setting politically/morally dangerous precedent of unilateral exemptions from rule of law, and of selective involvement even when its own paramount beliefs are flouted. Essay offersexpert history - warts and all - of evolving UN peacekeeping that now makes humanitarian interventionin cases of gross violation of human rights almost compulsory. Yet UN is refused men, money and structurenecessary to undertake increasingly complex and dangerous missions, including effectively in East Timorand Kosovo simultaneous administration/creation of civil regimes, reconstruction of badly damagedeconomies, and maintenance of peace in societies split by hatred. Priority recommendations: UN needs good intelligence analysis, and UNSG willing to refuse clearly impossible missions. Notesdescribe:(1)lengthy(22 years), dangerous(82 dead), and frustrating(finally completed)experience of UN force(UNIFIL)in south Lebanon sent to supervise Israeli withdrawal;(2)Bernard Kouchner unique responsibility:" begin building peace/democracy/stability and self-government" in Kosovo. Common threadmight be: world badly needs US-UN to work together to create new rules and structures to help ensureunprecedented/rapidly-evolving 21st Century challenges can be handled.

 

The Economist 19 Aug 00 "The Caucasus: Where Worlds Collide" (17-9):-tackles perhaps most ethnically explosive/ politically unruly/economically depressed region in world. It offers non-experts concise picture of "states" in area, whether recognized(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia),self-proclaimed(Abkazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia),aspiring(Ajaria?, Dagestan?, Ingushetia?, Javakheti?, Nakhichevan?, North Ossetia?)or neighbouring(Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey)in terms of their recent clashes/multiple secession/inter-ethnic problems; appalling political/economic conditions, and interests/roles of almost all in others' affairs. Wonderful chart on this. Among major points made: there might be 100b barrels of oil and gas around Caspian; 3000km of international borders in Caucasus of which 9km(sic)truly friendly; "same cocktail of bad government, spite-thy-neighbour and poverty poisons life in[whole]of Caucasus" ; "political and military stalemate disguises economic/social catastrophe" ; since independence2m(50%of population)emigrated from Armenia, 1m(20%)from Georgia, 1.5m(20%)from Azerbaijan; for one of many "solutions" :www.ceps.be.

 

The Economist 02 Sep 00 "The Price of Paying Ransoms" (Edit. 17):-recalling large number of highly publicized hostage-takings recently(Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, Fiji, former Soviet Union, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Yemen)confirms global trend upwards. Those taken in 1999 increased by 6% over 1998, number has been growing at that rate for several years - producing total increase of 70% over eight years. Ransom by Libya of Jolo Island hostages at $1m each taught kidnappers:" holding few hostages keeps army away; grabbing more keeps money rolling in" ,as well as someglobal politics(for Libyan motives/source of funds: "Qaddafi, Floating Like a Butterfly" (41)). Whilekidnapping has many causes( "inequalities of wealth, availability of guns, rebel armies looking for funds, underpaid police" )main reason is rewards. Hence universal lesson: hostage-taking must be seen not to pay. Short of capturing/punishing kidnappers[absence of any safe haven may be critical], it may also meanmaking it illegal to pay ransom.[Editor might add: such rules work best if applied/enforced globally.]

 

The Economist 23 Sep 00 "The Case For Globalization" (Edit.19-20); "Anti-Capitalist Protests: Angry and Effective" (85-7):-diverse aims, successful techniques, malign impact of recent "anti-globalization" demonstrators at Seattle stalemate, Bank/Fund meetings etc. In "muddled" attacks on international economic integration, protesters are right about only 2 facts: "most pressing moral, political and economic issue of our time is Third World poverty" and "tide of globalization...can be turned back" -and by demonstrators' chosen targets: governments, IOs, business - making protesters "terribly dangerous" .Many people share specific, often justified, concerns of protest groups (even if they ignore practical means to implement them);but little/no effort is made to refute only common viewpoint: "loathing of established economic order" as source of many global imperfections. Few supporters explainenormous benefit globalization brings Third World through integration into technological/information revolutions, gaining "productive employment and higher incomes" . For poor, all is at stake.

 

The Economist 28 Oct 00 "United Nations and Refugees: Ruud Surprise" (43-4):-Ruud Lubbers, former Dutch PM (82-94),unexpected choice to succeed Mrs. Sadako Ogata as United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Refugee agency, which has annual budget of more than $1b, is most politically active of UN's agencies. [Having played critical, life-saving role in all-too-many wars and humanitariancrises, its] importance will continue, and perhaps expand. Displacement of civilians, once semi-accident of war, has now become one of main goals of warring parties. Worldwide now 14m refugees...and 21m internally displaced people[under UNHCR care]" . Global total unknown but much larger. Priority of refugee over IDP may end, since latter often need more urgent help. Controversial distinction is between( "threatened" )refugees and(up to billions of)economic migrants. Barbara Crossette "Dutch Figure Seen as Choice for U.N. Post With Refugees" NYT 25 Oct 00:-picked up appointment in advance and addedother details. Term is five years(Ogata held for nearly ten),job is viewed as one of most important in UN system, being responsible for staff of about 5,000 working in more than 120 countries. Lubbers, like WHODirector-General, Gro Harlem Brundtland(former PM of Norway)and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson(former president of Ireland), is another high-level political leader added to UNSGAnnan's team of administrators. Reuters "Ogata Says UN Council Is Too Slow And Inflexible" NYT 10 Nov 00:-Sadako Ogata, in farewell speech as UNHCR to Security Council, gave piece of her mind to only body in world on which every government has conferred "primary responsibility for maintenance of international peace and security" (Charter Art.24).Among her criticisms: Nature of war has changed, sincemuch is now civil strife conducted by undisciplined guerrilla armies. "In spite of discussions on wider approaches, peace operations continue to be country-based, and reflect neither internal nor regional nature of many of today's wars." Moreover, Council dispatched peacekeepers far too late to protectuprooted citizens or even UN staff in field[UNHCR has suffered more fatal casualties than any other UN agency]. "We at UNHCR have become used to being called to confront refugee emergencies, literally at few hours' notice. We have no choice: delays in our work inevitably means that lives are lost." Council alsoinflexible in expanding operations across borders to aid trapped refugees(terrible examples of Rwanda-Zaire and East-West Timor).Currently Guinea has requested security aid to help half-a-million trapped refugees in its areas bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone; yet only presence of international community ishumanitarian." Ogata contended that governments are receptive to "ladder of options" to improve local security in refugee-inhabited areas. She also argued gap between short-term aid and development programs too large once emergencies ended.(UNSC going to discuss peacekeeping reforms next day..)Economist 27 Jan 01 "A New Deal For Refugees: Changed Course" (48):-negative report on UNHCR Lubbers' commitments and plans. It notes many maintaining/benefiting from UNHCR operations found his selection process "murky and undemocratic" , suspecting he gained post "along with" orders from major donors to cut organization back. In any event, he announced 24 Jan that budget would drop well below its recent $1b annual level, in hope that funding levels would at least become reliable. He proposes thatmuch UNHCR relief work(giving refugees food, shelter, other services)be assumed by NGOs, WFP,businesses. Lubbers also wants to reverse Ogata's special interest in 25m IDPs, arguing they areresponsibility of "their own governments" (if any).Regarding asylum-seekers, he takes tougher line, however: Europeans(sic) "must take seriously responsibility of giving asylum" .

 

The Economist 04 Nov 00 "India's Nuclear Dilemmas" (45-6):-very few widely-read, current analyses ofworld's most unstable nuclear confrontation. Identifies India's motives in demonstrating nuclear capacityas: political calculation, fear of China, and" feeling that India should not be denied prestige enjoyed by fivedeclared nuclear powers" .While PM Vajpayee has" since danced skilfully away from diplomatic mess[China, Pakistan, US]created by tests, hard-won goodwill depends partly on India's keeping low nuclear profile that threatens neither neighbours nor international efforts to stop spread of nuclear weapons." Vajpayee's dilemma is to be caught between those whose argument is that any further nuclear development would only weaken India's security by goading its neighbours, and his desire for deterrent that could survive a first strike. India's policy of "no first strike" and "minimum credible deterrent" is backed by deployment/decision-making system that is "missing or invisible" . Even if simply prudent/passive, India should discuss CBMs with Pakistan(and China?), not leave things gravely ambiguous.

 

The Economist 11 Nov 00 "Look, No Pilot: Pilotless Combat Aircraft" (101-2):-testing Boeing X-45A, first example of unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV). Long used for surveillance, unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have never carried weapons, whereas X-45As can carry bombs, decoys or Joint Direct Attack Munitions(smart weapons)plus all most advanced avionics: synthetic-aperture radar/satellite communications equipment. Advantages over manned combat aircraft: lessweight/size(stealth)/cost(build/(re)use/maintain)/training/control; better endurance/transport/ manoeuverability/storage. Initial role: suppress enemy air defence/air superiority. Challenges: controllinglarge numbers in limited airspace; jamming/interception of control signals; target assessment. Future: 90%combat aircraft unmanned by 2025. For global/UN purposes, UCAVs could offer fairly cheap/ "international" long-lived/globally-dispersed/multi-purpose standby combat or high-techsurveillance. Above all very rapid deployment ability. For conflict prevention, UCAVs could offer longstandby but quick response threat, advanced surveillance.

 

The Economist 06 Jan 01 "Rights and Refugees" (Edit.17-8); "The Palestinian Right of Return" (41-2):-why refugee-return issue is probably most difficult Israeli-Palestinian issue. Some 3.6m, 50%+of all Palestinians, are refugees registered by UNRWA. They were originally those who were either expelled or fled in 1948 from their homes in what UN recognized as Israel. Most(plus their descendants)still live -many in refugee camps- in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza. None has been compensated; they depend on UNGA resolutions for restitution: Res.194/948 states: "refugees wishing to return to their homes...should be permitted to do so" .Israel does not acknowledge this "right of return" but recognizesneed for substantial compensation(by somebody)and expects refugees to be settled elsewhere(at most .5mmight gradually be absorbed in poor/tiny new Palestinian state).Israel's essential problem is demographic:addition of millions of Palestinians to Israeli population would end any Jewish state. Editor suggests(contradictory)solution lies in mutual acknowledgement of both refugees' right of return to Israel and Israel's right to determine when, and who must be refused on grounds of national security.

 

The Economist 03 Feb 01 "Air Terrorism and International Law: The Long Trail Twisting From Lockerbie" (45-6):-Scottish judges unanimously found Libyan intelligence agent guilty of mass murder of 270 people by exploding bomb in Pan American flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 88. Also offersexcellent summary of precedent-setting international trial, and of US-UK options regarding further action against Qaddafi, including removal of UN sanctions on Libya(Doxey 99 & 00 op.cit.).For US attitude/actions towards Qaddafi/Libya, and Qaddafi's attitude towards US, see combined item: Tanter 98 "Rogue Regimes..." and Viorst 99 "The Colonel..." (op.cit.).Several media reports clarify broader implications of Lockerbie trial. Associated Press "U.N. Chief Releases Letter on Bomb" NYT 25 Aug 00:-describes UK-drafted letter from UNSG to Qaddafi, assuring him trial is purely legal and not manipulated political process.AP "Lockerbie Verdict Expected..." NYT 30 Jan 01:-summarizes unusual structure/course of trial. Donald G.McNeil Jr. "Libyan Convicted in Lockerbie Trial" NYT 31 Jan 01:-reports verdict(one defendant found guilty of mass murder, while co-defendant freed for lack of proof),and legal rationale behind it. David Johnston "News Analysis: Courts Are a Limited Anti-Terror Weapon" NYT 01 Feb 01:-comments on relativeeffectiveness of "criminal law as weapon against horrific act of international terror." Greatest limit in case was inability to punish those viewed by many as really responsible: Qaddafi's regime. Some experts argue such national security threats should be dealt with by military force(e.g.Tripoli, Sudan strikes).AP "Gadhafi Fails on Lockerbie Evidence" ;Reuters "Qaddafi Defies West Over Lockerbie Bombing" NYT 05 Feb 01:-both report on Qaddafi's attempt in long speech/press conference to make good his promise to reveal at that time new, "proven evidence that[convicted man]innocent" - "revelations so grand they could drive trial judges to suicide." But he merely read from published reports expressing skepticism about verdict, and then claimed "I refuted whole case, destroyed it." Reuters "Libyan Riot Police Break Up Anti-Britain Protest" NYT 06 Feb 01:-after having been stirred up, demonstrators tried to attack British and UN(sic)officesin Tripoli, and were harshly treated.

 

The Economist 03 Mar 01 "Displaced People: When Is a Refugee Not a Refugee?" (23-6):-good overview of growing problem of internally displaced persons(IDPs). "People who are trapped by war or persecution within their own countries need help as much as, or more than, official refugees. But world has been slow to appreciate their plight" (23). Essay covers, at least briefly, all major aspects of global issue: numbers, locations, motives, needs and handling of IDPs. Above all, however, it probes implications of their legal problem: they do not fit UN definition of refugee, i.e. "any person who[for specific reasons]is outside country of nationality" and so does not receive refugee's legal protection, nor are IDPs officially responsibility ofshort-funded UNHCR. While IDPs form largest group of displaced persons no effort has even been made before to count them. Dennis McNamara, UN's co-ordinator on internal displacement will, however, besubmitting full report to UNSG demanding that more be done.

 

The Economist 07 Apr 01 "The Balkans After Milosevic" (23-8):-Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo etc. horrors far enough in past to begin to be studied academically; emphasis on" Serb aggression" , only" Serb atrocities" , Milosevic's alleged drive for" Greater Serbia" ,can be replaced with more informed/objective analyses of all participant motives/actions. This essay on origins/prospects of current situation in former Yugoslaviademonstrates some progress. These extracts try only to show this; they do not summarize whole essay. "As champion of Serbs...Milosevic fanned their flames of war in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo...He fought a war against his fellow nationalist, late Franjo Tudjman of Croatia, and then colluded with him in bid to break up Bosnia...Kosovo...Milosevic's brutal reputation worked to[independence-campaigners' ]tactical advantage; more moderate leadership in Belgrade would have undermined their case...But Milosevic mostly got away with it because he patented and personified style of government which, from practitioners' viewpoint, was rational response to upheaval that followed collapse of communism.[M]any ex-communist leaders found that fanning inter-ethnic passions provided handy way to maintain their grip on economic and political life...Moreover, criminal nationalism on one side of conflict triggers similar phenomenon on other side." Rest of essay deals individually/well with problems of post-Yugoslav states.

 

The Economist 09 Jun 01 "Mr Bush Goes to Europe" (Edit.9); "Special Report - America and Europe; Wanted: New Rules of the Road" (25-7):-in connection with Bush II's first official visit to Europe(EU/NATO)essays cite many US-European disputes and divergent attitudes(in terms of global perspectives, preoccupations, and images of each other)but conclude common values/interests will overcome. Defence raises genuine differences over US missile defence proposal(with prefix" national" now being downplayed)and its threat to ABM Treaty. Europeans' "worries might recede" if they(and Russia)could be persuaded its sole purpose/use would be against "rogue" regimes. Also" lurking disagreements" overconventional forces: prospect of US redeployments from Europe to Pacific and real effects(on NATO)and motives of EU rapid-reaction force. Trade disputes: chronic, moving into(previously-domestic)regulatoryissues, sometimes bitter and reflecting even cultural differences(GMO). Behind all lie major worries about prospects for new WTO trade round. Serious perceptual problem: if things go badly, both sides" fall back on some surprisingly negative stereotypes.[US]stereotype is of Europe that is economically sclerotic, psychologically neurotic and addicted to spirit-sapping welfare schemes and freedom-infringing state. European stereotype is of gun-slinging, Bible-bashing, Frankenstein-food-guzzling, behemoth-driving, planet-polluting[US]in which politicians are mere playthings of mighty corporations" (25). Most striking, Europeanassessments of Bush himself(prior his visit)were "strongly hostile" though not unprecedented. "More important, structural changes in world politics are driving wedge between Europe and US" .Among Europe's four big powers only Italy's new government shares Bush's conservatism. In terms of security, US and Europe each need other less than in past(even Clinton past). "Upshot of consolidation of Europe has been to tugEurope and America in opposite directions[and to]look at world in increasingly different ways" (26). US looks at Asia and Americas; Europe looks at Europe. Europe is inclined to apply principles of multilateralism;US, and Bush in particular" tend to see world in traditional great-power terms. National interest, diplomatic leadership and protection of military might are what matter. International treaties and global norms merely constrain America's sovereignty" (27). Europeans see this as unilateralism, while Americans often see Europeans as" grandstanding free-riders, willing to lecture America about death penalty but less willing than they should be to spend money to make their troops effective" .[For example of worry that antagonism towards US also helps Europeans define their own identity, Economist cites Kissinger. Up-to-date: Gregg Easterbrook "Europe Builds Itself Up at Bush's Expense" New York Times 17 Jun.] "At this point,transatlantic relationship is at point of divergence[but unique]institutional, economic and cultural ties...set limit to further deterioration" .May be further drift, or revival of transatlantic alliance as "partnership of equals" . Remember how much US and Europe "still have in common, and what they could do together if they put their minds to it" (27).

 

The Economist 20 Nov 03 "The International Criminal Court: For Us Or Against Us?" :-possibly the most critical editorial of Economist against disgusting US foreign policy in history. "Some 70 countries, representing 40% of world's population, have now signed bilateral agreements with US exempting US citizens - and often their own - from prosecution by ICC. According to John Bolton, US under-secretary for international security, US' s ultimate goal is to conclude such pacts with every country in the world. Court, he complains, runs 'contrary to...basic constitutional principles of popular sovereignty/checks/balancesand national independence.'ICC first permanent international body able to try individuals for war crimes/genocide/crimes against humanity. Set up under 98 Statute of Rome, it has jurisdiction over citizens of countries which have both signed/ratified Rome statute - known as 'state parties' - as well as overthose suspected of committing atrocities on territory of a state party. Court is backed by nearly half world's nations, including all members of European Union and all but one(Turkey)of US' s NATO allies. YetUS arm-twisting of many...closest allies has at times been ferocious. Under US Servicemembers' Protection Act, passed last year, administration threatened to cut all military aid to those countries which had ratified Rome statute, but unwilling to sign bilateral impunity agreements with US. NATO members and certain other allies were exempted. But some NATO candidates were warned that failure to enter into such pacts would put their candidacy at risk. Many third-world countries, heavily dependent on US largesse,scrambled to comply. But others dug in their heels... Bush administration announced suspension of $millions military aid to 35 of ICC's supporters who refused bilaterals. Included Colombia, third-largest recipient of US military aid and one of US' s key partners in its war on drugs, as well as several countriesthat provided troops for war against Iraq. Four, including Colombia, have since had their aid restored after signing...But 31 others face losing further $89m in military aid in fiscal year. [Summary of less 50%.]

 

The Economist 10 Apr 04 "South Africa: A Town Like Alice" (37-9):-unusually informative about successes, failures and prospects of South African situation after first decade of democracy. Most material drawn from current status of Alicedale, once relatively successful apartheid society/economy built on providing watering-stop for steam trains, but closed in 96. Description that not only has relevance to republic, but history that can be applicable in numbers of other cultures in world. Issues discussed include general policies ofAfrican National Congress(ANC),liberation movements that ruled country since apartheid finally ended;employment trends/serious problems of black and white inhabitants; important yet inadequate welfare,education/training, housing, legal situations; fastest-growing/valuable tourism industry. End describesinadequate - but widespread - local policy falling totally behind HIV/AIDS situation.

 

The Economist 24 Apr 04 "Israel and the Palestinians: Gaza Isn't the End of It" (Edit.12-4); "Special Report: Has Something Really Changed?" (25-7):-all chronic issues analysed and delays or outcomes discussedoffered with much thoughtful information about current possibilities.[So worth reading, even if your own views differ.]Major point relates to Gaza. "Belligerent" Israeli PM Ariel Sharon's "plan to withdraw unilaterally from Gaza strip, lesser (and grimmer)part of future would-be-independent Palestinian state, seems to be winning backing both of his own Likud party and of most Israelis.[From George Bush]he got just about everything he had hoped for, including annexation of chunks of territory in West Bank" (25)i.e.includes Gaza but not all remainder to Palestinians. Moreover "'Long-term interim agreements' have been favourite ploy of[Sharon:i.e.]making tactical concessions to preserve stalemate in battle against Palestinian nationalism, in hope that Palestinians will eventually give up. On paper... Sharon now accepts idea of two-state solution...But sort of Palestinian state that might emerge if security barrier now being built follows route that digs deep into Palestinian territory would hardly be viable entity that Bush, let alone other involved outsiders, would accept as bare minimum...Bush and Sharon did, however, accept that fence may be temporary" .(26) This is most important subject but items also discuss such tough issues as Palestinian refugees continuing bilateral deaths, Arafat's role, need to re-establish negotiating table, changing views of Arab/European states, and international aid to Palestinians. Related article, "Israel's Nukes: Vanunu's Story" (26), describes chronic Israeli view on having nuclear weapons, reminded by "whistleblower" 's jail release. Economist 03 Jul 04 "Israel and Palestine" (37); ":Who's Winning the Fight?" (38):-items on conflict almost weekly, but these see past, present and future, and predict movement. "[Sharon]may once more push ahead with his plan to leave Gaza, while seeking to consolidate Israel's hold on bigger swathe of West Bank than Palestinians are wont to accept in overall peace package.[US]seems keen to clinch Gaza withdrawal first, then move on later to negotiations over West Bank. No less hopefully, Egyptians ...seem to be going along with that idea too. Jordanians warily approve.[Israel]made it clear that reprisals and incursions could continue before, during and after a withdrawal.[Sharon]would like Egyptians to have degree of control over Palestinians in Gaza, just as he may still hope for similar Jordanian co-operation in West Bank. [A]t least diplomacy is no longer frozen" (37). Other item has chart of Palestinians/Israeli civilians/Israeli forces deathseach month since 2000. Comments: no lack of potential suicide-bomber recruits; ICJ may declare barrier illegal. Economist 14 Aug 04 "Israel's Far Right: Ariel Sharon Is a Sissy" (42); "Israel and Palestine: Blaming Arafat" (73-4):- both items are filled with information about why situation has been long-term chronic mess. First is up to date, but describes some of history, capacities and murder carried out byJewish terrorists. They may try to kill Sharon and/or make movement out of Gaza even more difficult. Second item consists of reviews of two new and well-written books about failure of almost-successful peacemaking. Dennis Ross, The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace(Farrar, Straus and Giroux);and Yossi Beilin, The Path to Geneva: The Quest for a Permanent Agreement, 1996-2004(RDV Books).Both are inclined to see final negative role by Yasser Arafat. Ross book also commented on in detail/ praise by Samuel W.Lewis "The Receding Horizon" Foreign AffairsVol.6/No.5(Sep/Oct 04).Economist 02 Oct 04 "Palestine and Israel: Break That Bloody Stalemate" (Edit.14-5); "Palestine: A Bloody Vacuum" (23-5):-both items offer well-researched information on Palestinians - their recent past, painful present(in Gaza and West Bank)and possible future. Items specifically include thoughtful comments on current and possibly future role of Yasser Arafat, and those who are hoping/liable to replace his central position. Summary of the Special Report is: "Stalemate between Palestinians and Israelis looks total, but internal rows on both sides offer a shred of hope." Economist 23 Oct 04 "Israel's Unlikely Dove" (Edit.11); "Israel and Palestine: Leaving Gaza, Maybe, and To an Uncertain Fate" (22-4):-Summary of Special Report is: "Ariel Sharon's plan to evacuate Jewish settlements from Gaza is causing outrage in Israel and slipping beyond its author's control." Key excerpts:(1) "Sharon's lawyer and adviser says plainly beauty of disengaging from Gaza is that Israel is thereby doing'minimum possible',while removing Palestinian statehood'indefinitely'from its agenda. But however much they mistrust him, Palestinians cannotbe seen to be asking Sharon to prolong any part of occupation. So Palestinian diplomacy now focuses ontrying to connect Israel's Gaza plan to larger questions of statehood and West Bank...Since neither Israel/US will deal directly with Arafat, Palestinians need mediator. Enter, backstage, Omar Suleiman,Egypt's head of intelligence. President Hosni Mubarak has asked [him]to co-operate with both Israelis and Palestinians in order to help Israel leave Gaza, make its leaving consistent with[US]road map, andpersuade Israelis and Americans that Palestinians are indeed reliable partners." (2) "Israel already tackleswith talk of violent opposition, military disobedience and even civil war if Sharon takes on settlermovement without clear mandate from people..Sharon seems..warmed to idea of national referendum -even though this would ensure further delay without ensuring final victory." Summary of Editorial: "The world is entitled to suspect his motives. But Ariel Sharon's plan to leave Gaza still deserves support." Economist 30 Oct 04 "The Palestinians: After Arafat" (Edit.11); "Israel's Withdrawal From Gaza: Round One To the Doves" (51-2); "The Palestinians: Adieu, Arafat?" (52):-inter-related discussions: effects of Yasser Arafat's serious illness(death)& Ariel Sharon's hard political options after winning positive Gaza-withdrawal vote in Knesset. Khalil Shikaki "The Future of Palestine" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.6(Nov/Dec 04):-author Director of Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, and wrote with bothexpertise and concern about Arafat's outdated views before he became ill/died. Varied Palestinian leaders/ personalities/youth, experiences, and groups identified/described, as well as improvable outcome of a Palestinian election if Israel were willing to permit one. Fair election strongly advocated in interest ofsolving crisis with Israel. "Q&A: Henry Siegman on Yasir Arafat" Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 04:-offers interview with CFR director of US/Middle East Project. He said that Abu Mazen, who opposes terrorism, "presents opportunity for resuming Middle East peace talks if Israel and US, both of which refused to negotiate with Arafat, drop their opposition to negotiations aimed at permanent Palestinian-Israelipeace." "Q&A: David Makovsky: Prospects for Middle East Peace" Council on Foreign Relations 15 Dec 04:-offers interview with director of Project on Middle East Peace Process at Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He said "changes in Israel and in Palestinian Authority(PA)opened'windows of opportunity that have not existed for many years' . There is now chance to end violence between the two sides and 'revive trust between Palestinians and Israelis' ." Steven Erlanger "A Modest Proposal: Israel Joining NATO" New York Times 19 Dec 04:-" one of most intriguing[new ideas]is suggestion that Israel...consider joining NATO. Idea, at least, is that closer ties to NATO - and perhaps eventual membership - would embed Israel in West and, by providing security guarantees, give it more confidence to make comprehensive peace...Of course prospect of closer ties with Israel would create debate within NATO, especially in absence of a final Israeli-Palestinian settlement. But first Israel itself needs to talk through military and political pros and cons."

 

The Economist 15 May 04 "War in Sudan:Don't Forget It" (Edit.10) "Special Report on Sudan: Fleeing the Horsemen Who Kill For Khartoum" (21-3):-reports:(1)cautious agreement about an encouraging but uncertain "comprehensive peace" to end north-south civil war since 1957;(2)bloody/displacing attacksdirected by government against western Darfur region whose newly armed people feared being excluded. North-south war started at Sudan's independence by black non-Moslems living over southern half of largest African state, who sought autonomy from Moslem and Arabic north. War killed 2 million(mostly civilians)and became even more fierce when new Sudan oil concession areas were hugely located in south. Under mostly US pressure/promise, both groups finally agreed on series of agreements and "to share power for six years, after which south will be allowed referendum on whether or not to secede...In west and east of country, regions utterly neglected by state , those who feel left out -in particular, in[black Moslem]Darfur-have taken up arms. Government has evidently determined to crush them with such ferocity that otherSudanese are too scared to follow suit" .Its militia is acting so viciously, it is drawing US anger -and soonUN. Economist 29 May 04 "Sudan: Peace in the South, War in the West" (Edit.14) "Sudan: A Triumph Marred By Terror" (48): bring developments up: Sudan's "government and southern rebels surmounted last obstacles in way of peace. [W]ar between north and south...appear[s]to be over. Proposed transitional government will not be pretty...but war is uglier...In western region of Darfur, government is fighting two black Muslim rebel groups...Some 1.2m [blacks]have been driven from their homes, and perhaps 30,000 killed.[A]id workers predict that between 150,000 and 350,000 people will die in next nine months from hunger and disease if Sudan's government does not stop hindering relief efforts" .Economist 03 Jul 04 "Sudan: Dousing the Frames of Darfur" (Edit.13) "Sudan: The Calamity Continues" (39): continue report: "Actions in Darfur...have created arguably worst humanitarian crisis in world today. Arab-dominated regime Khartoum is fighting revolt there by discontented blacks and has been driving black Darfuris fromsmoking remains of homes. Most of driving is done by mounted militia called janjaweed which governmentarms but pretends not to...USAID predicted...1m might die if help did not come fast" .UNSG Annan and US Secretary of State Powell visited Sudan to threaten government with UNSC sanctions, but offer aidwhen/where can. Economist 31 Jul 04 "Sudan Can't Wait: Genocide in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: The World Notices Darfur" (39-40):both describe international details US and Britain in particular are facing when tryingto end terrible action by janjaweed actions against people of Darfur, and serious food absence for millions. Third Darfur item, "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40),has Summary in sections due to future relevance of legality UN action/inaction. Economist 28 Aug 04 "Sudan: Crunch Time in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: Decision Time in Sudan" (39-40) "Darfur's Rebels: No Angels" (40):-there have been frequent/appalling Editorials/articles in past months, but trio is worth reading even if you do not want to scan them all. It contains a large amount of new information on complexities of this situation. Unfortunately much could be relevant to other African/Arab/illogical states and UN delay in crisis. Economist11 Dec 04 "Southern Sudan: The Refugees Prepare To Return Home" (45):-as noted in May items, slownorth-south peace negotiations continued/maybe ended, while western genocide continued, despitesmall/slow intervention in Darfur by African troops. South now seems prepared for peace/important resettlement takes place/is described.

 

The Economist 29 May 04 "Haiti: Misery Upon Misery" (35-6):-another tragedy has hit poorest country in Americas. Torrential rains smashed a border region between Dominican Republic and Haiti," unleashing floods and devastating mudslides" . About 2,000 people were reported killed, half in one Haitian town alone. Meanwhile 8m Haitians already under some control by multi-national forces, attracted by a political revolt but soon replaced by a formal UN peacekeeping force. Transitional government of technocrats is alreadyheaded by a former UN official - and that raises increasing global needs for UN to run nations collapsed "out of control" . Here are Haiti excerpts: " [State has]no army...and a small and ill-armed policeforce...For most Haitians, life is all about survival. Two-thirds of them lack a proper job. The price of ricehas almost doubled since January. Mountains of rubbish have piled up in the streets. In Port-au-Prince, there is no water and almost no electricity for those who cannot afford generators. Good roads exist onlyin the memory of those old enough to remember better days. Estimates of the cost of the looting anddestruction of property in February[revolt]range[$100-300m]. Public services collapsed. That was a body blow to an economy already wounded by years of mismanagement, general instability, a UN embargo in the early 1990s and a suspension of foreign aid after 2000. The only growth business has been thetracking of Colombian cocaine...A readier source of cash[than aid]is the $1billion that the Haitians livingabroad send back home each year. That amounts to three times the country's exports or the government'sbudget. Most of this money is spent on foods and clothes. It helps to pay for survival, not reconstruction. Haitians are growing angry over rising food prices[,but]Haiti's failures are rooted in its history[and]also in its social and racial divisions" .

 

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "United States Battling Proliferation: Win Some, Lose Some" (25-6):- "Bushafter[11 Sep] attacks, promis[ed]to face down threat from spread of weapons of mass destruction.[He]will be pressing hard for curbs on proliferation to be treated as epoch-shaping issue.[M]essage...helpedconvince Libya...to speed its exit out of elicit mass-destruction business.[A]larming tales since emerged of..wholesale auctioning off of Pakistan's nuclear technologies, not just to Libya, but to North Korea, Iranand possibly others, led UN Security Council[at Bush's urging]to pass resolution obliging all governments to criminalise illicit weapons and technology transfers...Yet despite these diplomatic successes, andmoney being spent on securing'loose nukes' ,...strategy still has plenty of critics.[While US was focused on Iraq,]North Korea went on building more bombs[,]Iran thumbed its nose at[IAEA and otherswere]encouraged...to redouble their bomb-building." Many other relevant US activities and inconsistencies reported towards India/Iraq/Iran/Israel/North Korea. "Stricter enforcement of anti-proliferation rules has been hallmark of[Bush, since bin Laden/al-Qaeda positions]cast problem of treaty-breaking by roguegovernments with terrorist links in alarming new light.[S]trategy has had some success" :EO and Russian anti-proliferation action. "Bush wants to see greater restrictions on dangerous uranium-enrichment and plutonium-reprocessing technologies[,yet wants to keep US nuclear]test-site bit readier." Economist 03 Jul 04 "North Korea: Nuclear Chess" (35-6)and "Europe and Iran: A Common Flop" (42):-both comment on US' s differing history/negotiations with these two nuclear-threatening states. Regarding North Korea, concludes "may be hoping for deal to its liking if John Kerry wins US presidential election in Nov. MeanwhileGeorge Bush in no rush either.[S]cotched criticism from allies and Kerry alike by showing...negotiating seriously. He has not yet sacrificed anything in nuclear game with North Korea, and maybe gained a little." Second article, dealing with both European and US negotiations, concludes "Iran and Europeans seem now to be playing for time, awaiting outcome of Nov's presidential election in US. But whoever wins,US is unlikely to tolerate nuclear-arming Iran. Some Europeans hope that new administration might try talking to Iran. But, with US tied up in Iraq, Iranians may calculate time is on their side and - so long as IAEA finds nothing new - that Europeans will never agree among themselves to tougher line. If so, far from being success for Europe's common... policy, Iran could become big irritant in relations between US and Europe" .

 

The Economist 12 Jun 04 "India's Economic Reforms: Can India Work?" (67-9):-excellent Special Reporton present and future prospects of state that is not only growing at major rate but may also have larger population than China soon. Compares potentials faced now by Manmohan Singh, new Congress prime minister, with his tough reform role as finance minister in 1991. This time he inherits economy growing at more than 8% a year and far from crisis. Current(and 91)figures displayed: Population - billion: 1.06(0.87);GDP$trillion(ppp): 2.86(1.23); GDP per person $(ppp): 2,690(1,420); Consumer prices,% increase on year ago: 3.8(13.9); Exports, $billion: 56.0(17.7); Imports, $billion: 71.0(20.4). But" two reasons toworry[essential] reform may be under threat" : (1)" Congress owes its victory in part to dissatisfaction with incumbent state governments and in part to support of populist parties from two big states, West Bengaland Bihar" .States have role on reform contents/application. (2)" Congress has only 145 of 545 seats in parliament. [I]t is in coalition with parties identified with narrow regional interests, hostile to reform, and[it]also relies on'outside'support of India's communist parties. Last situation has forced concessions onreforms of privatisation/ labour laws/power sector. Admirable/realistic goals include: annual growth of 7-8%, alleviating poverty, helping farmers, empowering women, raising spending on health/education; but "reform is about removing obstacles" .Bulk of report is then about prospects. Economist 10 Jul "India's Budget: High-Wire Act" (37):-new government's budget is described as balanced but hardly inspiring compromise between Congress, communists, and parties that represent India's poorest. It may not have upset anyone, but it has also done little to advance reform. Finance minister has promised to shrink deficit, but has introduced no action on privatization, subsidy slashing, or radical reform of labour laws.Agriculture(livelihood of 70%)and rural areas were provided support and incentives, "including doubling ofagricultural credit...,widespread water schemes, and help for diversification into new farm products and foodprocessing" .On industry, new commission announced to boost both foreign and domesticinvestment." Increases should help to boost India's poor record on investment inflows, which fell 2003-04from $4.7b to $4.5b(tiny fraction of what China takes). Limits, though, are only part of it: foreign investment is mostly restricted by foreign companies' frustrations with India's bureaucracy.,.poor public services andinfrastructure ...This is not end of reform in India, nor is it inspiring start for new government's efforts to advance it" . Economist 17 Jul "India: Closing the Gap" (42-3):-Palaniappan Chidambaram, new finance minister, and top-level staff, already "starting work on reforms for his full annual budget" in Feb, even though government is facing attacks on interim budget(above). "Reforms in next budget...will focus on taxation, subsidies and development expenditures" . Economic/social scale/complexity/impact of proposals are outlined in articles, but may be changed before budget. Yet global magnitude of Indian prosperity soimportant(1b+ people),whole world may hope major reforms succeed. Economist 25 Sep "India and America: Joining the Big Boys' Club" (54):-meeting of PM Manmohan Singh with US President Bush took place during joint Sep visit to UNGA in New York. Just prior to meeting, certain US sanctions on India were lifted; they were originally imposed when it exploded five nuclear bombs in 98, as a declared nuclear power that had not signed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. According to statement, Indian relations with US "had never been as close" ,and US is now "expanding co-operation...in civilian nuclear power, spaceprogrammes and high technology trade, and discussing missile defences. Indian officials...were keen to portray this as evidence that US now accepts India as serious international partner." Indeed India seems to have achieved its hope that its nuclear test would force US to pay it "serious, sustained and respectful attention." Meanwhile India is submitting joint bid for permanent UNSC membership with Brazil, Germany and Japan. Economist 09 Oct "India: Cohabiting, For Now" (37-8); "India's North-East: The Terror Spreads" (38); "Nuclear Proliferation: A Game For All To Play" (38-9):-all 3 items make above key/positive reports on India more complex. Inserted together, in order, under Economist 09 Oct 04.

 

The Economist 19 Jun 04 "The Bush Administration And the Torture Memo: What On Earth Were They Thinking?" (31-2):-since 11 Sep 01 disaster, there has been discussion in West on how US should handle serious prisoners. See Ignatieff, The Lesser Evil: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror; Wedgwood/Roth, "Combatants or Criminals? How Washington Should Handle Terrorists" Foreign Affairs(both op.cit.). "[N]ew and...embarrassing for Mr. Bush is detailed evidence that main source of legal opinion for his administration - office of legal counsel in Department of Justice - has been giving advice thatAmericans may(in normal sense of term)torture people abroad.[S]omebody leaked full text to Washington Post. [D]etails make ugly reading for any friend of[US]. Memo, which dates from Aug 02, looks at sections of legal code...which implements UN Convention against Torture. It claims torture can be justified on three grounds" . (1)US law "was intended to proscribe only most egregious conduct" : torture is more than just cruel/inhuman punishment.(2)President can do whatever he wants in war: this power ignores Congress' greater constitutional power.(3)US torturers could be prosecuted only if their main purpose was to inflict pain. Wedgewood says memo "defines its task oddly...[I]t asks 'what can we do and remain within law?'" .Memo ignores or glides over US/international laws that ban or limit torture. In practice, US" authorizedtechniques seem to fall well outside even normal definitions of torture" .Economist 26 Jun 04 "The Torture Controversy: Fanning the Flames" :-more controversial information about Bush regime military practice. It released hundreds of pages from prisoner-torture memos; Justice Department said it was rewriting itslegal advice on how tough US interrogators can be. Memo collection" provides evidence for both sides" ,e.g.Rumsfeld authorized for two months" list of coercive techniques...including giving permission for prisonersto be stripped naked, terrorised with dogs and interrogated for up to 20 hours" .At UN, US dropped itsattempt to extend resolution giving its troops immunity from war crimes, " something other countries felt was attempt to undermine International Criminal Court" .In Afghanistan: Rumsfeld designated one particular prisoner'non-person', "insisting that his name be removed from all official records" ; UShas "reserved right not to observe Geneva Conventions when handling suspected al Qaeda fighters" ;Guardian reports five or more suspects have died in US custody, with no prosecution although at least threewere ruled homicides; and it details abuse allegations, including prisoners beaten, humiliated, forced intopain.

 

The Economist 26 Jun 04 "China: Peaceful Rise" (44-5):-description of China's attempt to play down widespread concern that it constitutes potential political threat(China's trends/economy: Economy andGilboy op.cit.). "How can China deal with foreign concerns, especially in Asia and West, that country'seconomic strength will one day encourage it to assert its power aggressively, or even militarily? In last few months, China has started to develop a riposte.[E]conomic conference attended by many Asian leaders[was] informed by senior Communist Party official that 'our choice can only be to strive to rise; and what's more this is peaceful rise'. Since then, catchphrase 'peaceful rise'has become something of a favourite." Government has also" been busy trying to present China as benign emerging nation...ready to cooperatewith others to solve international problems" . Evidence has included: 'treaty of amity and co-operation'withten-member ASEAN; signed code of contact with ASEAN to reduce risk of conflict over South China Seadisputes; promoted relative new security forum for Central Asia: Shanghai Co-operation Organization; hosting six-nation talks on North Korea, and hinting it become permanent forum. "Even so, there are somesigns that US resents diplomatic inroads China has made in Asia...But China has not tried to mount directchallenge to US power...To make term more palatable...now say China's rise could take generations. Deciding what exactly notion means and how it might be possible to achieve it, could take just as long." Economist 17 Jul "US, China and Taiwan: Dangerous Games" (42):-this item gloomier about China-related combat: "US, China and Taiwan may be in for more turbulent times. One is Taiwan's outspokenindependence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian. Earlier this year he was re-elected with increased share of vote.[China will find] Chen even more awkward customer if his Democratic Progressive Party winsenough seats to control parliament later this year. Chen also annoyed President Bush earlier this year byholding referendum to coincide with his re-election bid, high-lighting threat to Taiwan from 500 or so missiles China has pointed at island.[Bush]has also called on Taiwan not to take any actions unilaterallyto change status quo and so risk conflict in Taiwan Strait. US already has its hands full...But is Chen listening? China fears he may yet propose referendum on independence for Taiwan. At that point, says China, force cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, new constitution for Taiwan's vibrant new democracy due to be drafted by 2006, and adopted by referendum in[Olympics]2008... Chen's government has yet to make[agreed US defence]purchases. He seems to take it for granted that, if he offends China too far, US will always rush to his rescue...US defence planners are increasingly concerned that, while Taiwan drags its feet on military modernization and Chan plays his political games, China is rapidly acquiring means to launch rapid "decapitation" strike at Taiwan, before US would even have time to respond" .Economist07 Aug "China: The Army Flexes Its Muscles" (34):-several events relating to People's Liberation Army(PLA)add slightly more worrying hints it might be used. "China's top military officers marked 01 Auganniversary of [PLA founding] with solemn words and elaborate ceremonies in Beijing. But this year, PLA also tried something new,...first military parade in Hong Kong [involving 3,000 soldiers, flanked by tanks and helicopters]. PLA had already begun calling attention to itself...when it mobilised 18,000 soldiers in...land, sea and air exercises simulating an invasion of Taiwan.[T]ensions over Taiwan have recently heated up. Both Taiwan and US have matched China's manoeuvres with exercises of their own in region...China gavewarning that neither concern for its own economic development nor risk of losing its cherished role as hostof 2008 Olympics would deter it from using force against Taiwan, if island were to move closer to declaring independence...Intriguing questions about who is calling shots within Chinese military itself are meanwhile emerging[:]tantalizing hints that awkward power-sharing arrangements at top of PLA may be starting to fray." Former national president and party head, Jiang Zemin, has delayed handing over his third title, Chairof Central Military Commission, to Hu Jintao - who may be getting tired of waiting. Economist 18 Sep "Hong Kong's Election: Suffrage On Sufferance" (47-8):-return to Chinese rule put both Beijing and previous British colony into strongly-felt, but chronically-difficult, political positions. These have influence onTaiwanese/US views, plus chronic democratic pressures on Hong Kong voting. Article discusses bothpolitical background and results of 12 Sep important, but not 100%, Hong Kong election on local government. After good description, concludes: "'Beijing will be relieved...Democrats...swept under carpet'.Sadly, election may mean that, for now, democracy in Hong Kong has been swept aside too" .These subjects continue: Economist 25 Sep 04.

 

The Economist 03 Jul 04 "The Supreme Court and Guantanamo Bay: Not Good Enough" (Edit.12); "The Supreme Court and Enemy Combatants: Too Far, Say the Judges" (23-4):-title/gist of many items on US handling of possible terrorists captured in combat areas after 11 Sep 01 are under Economist 19 Jun 04 "The Bush Administration..." . Locus of many such suspects has been Guantanamo, US army camp legally in Cuba." White House has managed to turn a generally reviled group of prisoners...into figures ofinternational sympathy...by denying these'enemy combatants' any semblance of western justice...[I]t hassought to deny detainees legal process of any kind, especially in US courts, deprived them of independentlegal advice and now intends to send them to military commissions...This week, US judicial system began long task of righting this huge wrong. Supreme Court said that Bush had right to hold combatants without trial but, crucially, it decided that detainees at Guantanamo could have recourse to US courts - something Bush has(disgracefully)fought...It could be years before independent courts resolve individualcases and it is unclear what rights of recourse detainees now have. However, by affirming that 'state of war is not blank cheque for president', court struck important blow: 595 detainees in Cuba...will now starttheir various appeals to federal courts...So progress has been made. But it is plainly not enough, and it isalso clumsy: judges are making US terrorist laws because politicians have not done so" (12). Supreme Court gave prisoners "one of oldest rights in book, writ of habeas corpus, which is way of challenging imprisonment by requiring explanation of why someone is being held...What sort of legal proceeding is appropriate? [C]ourt may be trying to nudge administration into some sort of Geneva Convention-like judicialprocess, perhaps allowing trials using lower standards of proof. [I]n future litigation...big effect of decisions will be to constrain executive power and force administration to submit to some(albeit unclear)level of judicial oversight.[D]ecisions may be early signs of changing attitude towards international law. Court's rulings on prisoners were rooted in US precedent and legal practices.

 

The Economist 10 Jul 04 "Weapons of Mass Destruction: If You Push, I'll Shove" (40-1):-gloomy report on Middle East nuclear prospects. Arabs fear Israel of possessing 200 nuclear bombs plus new deliveryforms; Israel points at chemical- and possibly biological-tipped missiles in neighbours. Balance of insecurity always uneasy, and may be eroding, even though Iraqi and Libyan nuclear developments wereundone. Head Mohamed ElBaradei of IAEA in Israel suggested it hold talks on nuclear-weapons-free zonein Middle East - before too late. He wants security talks in parallel with diplomacy, but opportunities so faroutweighed by threats. "Libya...helped expose vast global black market in uranium enrichment and other militarily useful skills centred on Pakistani scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan. Since Iran tapped into same illicit network, all this helped IAEA expose its 18 years of nuclear-safeguards violations: illegal nuclear experiments set out in series of reports for all to see. Yet, troubingly, Iran shows no sign yet of giving up dangerous technologies it has developed...Although Khan had admitted to selling his nuclear wares only to Iran, Libya and North Korea...suspicions others may have availed themselves of his services. Although all supposedly bound by their non-nuclear promise under NPT, few Arab governments have accepted more intrusivesafeguards and inspection regime [Economist 05 Jun "United States Battling Proliferation:.." op.cit.]. Saudi Arabia has no safeguards agreement with IAEA...Having helped..to finance both Libya's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons pursuits...it may have bought itself option on Pakistani bomb...Syria, which already has chemicaland biological weapons,...may now have covert uranium enrichment capability[and raises fears it could]acquire plutonium. If Iran[gets]bomb, it is not only Israel that might be alarmed. Egypt has potentially militarily useful nuclear skills and increasingly sophisticated missile programme. Algeria has suspiciously large nuclear reactor in Sahara, surrounded by missile defences.[E]ven Turkey...could reconsider non-nuclearpledge, should others in region seem about to renege on theirs. Much depends on whether Iran's nuclear ambitions can be checked before it has bomb.[F]inger-pointing could yet turn deadly."

 

The Economist 10 Jul 04 "Japan's Foreign Policy: From Pacifism to Populism" (Special Report 20-2):-analyses future of second-biggest, but most constitutionally-pacified, global power: "As Japan begins to stretch its long-unused military muscles, how far does it want to go and what can it do?" Both PM Junichiro Koizumi's innovation and increased international threats concerning Japanese people, producedchanging attitude. "Soon after 2001 attack [when Japan sank North Korean spy ship,]parliament passedspecial law authorizing ships from Maritime SDF[Self Defence Force]to help US fleet in Indian Ocean. Law restricted co-operation to refuelling and logistics, but Japan's navy, in effect, provided rear support for[Afghan]invasion...Last summer, parliament passed laws spelling out government's powers in event of attack on Japan's territory.[P]acifist nervousness had prevented enactment before.[PM]had also called for changes to constitution, including pacifist restrictions in Article 9.[B]ecause Asia is less coherent than European Union, Japan's regional role is in some ways even more important to US[whose] 45,000 troopsin Japan, and related air and naval bases,...allow US to project strength across region littered with potential hotspots.[A]lliance will grow more flexible and useful[,although critics]both in and around Japan...detect signs of resurgent right wing, and fear return of Japanese militarism.[Y]et Koizumi's eagerness[does not]imply sinister swing to far right. His foreign policies reflect clear and reasonable national interests and draw support from broad Japanese public, which shows little desire to remilitariseand start strong-arming neighbours...Voters do seem...dismayed...to include Japanese troops in new multinational force in Iraq...endorsed by UN.[P]ublic reaction does not appear to reflect attitudes towards deployment, since mission[now rebuilding quiet Iraqi town]will not change...Japan's conduct of foreign policyis arguably growing more democratic[,although in]1992 parliament passed law allowing SDF to ventureabroad as long as...part of UN mission,..when a ceasefire is in place, and when all parties to conflict agree that Japan can take part" .North Korean threats, including lobbing" medium-range Taepodong missile in 1998...over Japanese airspace into Pacific Ocean" ,have recently justified counter-action, but "most sensible way for Japan to gain influence is to start putting its substantial military resources...to work multilaterally.[Yet as great trader, it] wants to stay on good terms with as many countries as possible." Michael W. Donnelly "The Politics of Uncertainty in Japan" Behind the Headlines Vol.61/No.3(Sep. 04):-complements usefully the above item by describing those aspects of Japan's traditional society thatshould be modified, but may not be, even under relatively radical Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Parts of essay address important issues: Politics and Growing Economic Insecurity; Post-Bubble Blues; PartialEconomic Reform in Uncertain Times; Nascent Signs of Private-Sector-Led Economic Recovery; Emergence of New Forms of Governance; Military Security and Growing Public Anxiety. Conclusion ends: "How Japan continues to evolve will depend partly on political commitment and leadership of PM Koizumi. It is all but certain Japan will not move dramatically closer to liberal market economies like those of US/Canada. Less clear how much further Japan will move toward becoming'normal'state with respect to military security/diplomatic independence. In meantime, uncertainty marks the daily lives of Japanese."

 

The Economist 24 Jul 04 "Russia's Armed Forces: Heads Roll At Long Last" (48-9):-excessive cost ofUSSR armed forces - in attempt to match US as superpower - played critical role in bringing end to Cold War. Yet their gradual and reluctant, but vast financial, constraint had dangerous effects on intricate weapons, disarmament, and personnel - and gained US safety assistance. Some long-overdue actions havenow taken place, and may have positive impact. "Anatoly Kvashnin, Russian armed forces' chief of staffwho was fired...had spent most of his seven years in job in conflict with people meant to be his bosses[,civilian defence ministers. He]had blocked President Vladimir Putin's attempts to start transition fromconstrict army to leaner, professional one. But his civilian opponents outmanoeuvred him...when Duma passed law handing operational control of army to defence ministry and leaving generals in charge only of strategy.[R]umours of...dismissal began;...he asked to go." His reactionary acts had included: seizure ofKosovo airport during war; chronically sour relations with NATO; world view/threats as if Cold War had barely ended;" ran impressive exercises designed to repulse massive invasions from east and west" ; losses in Chechnya issue." [R]eplacement Yuri Baluyevsky seen as opponent of his mercurial, stubborn ex-boss; more desk man, strategist and military historian, who watches his words, stays out of politics and pragmaticabout co-operating with former foes. He has led disarmament talks and parleyed with NATO.[A]lso joint author of reform plans, which would slim ministry and military command. But what next?" Clean armed forcescorruption? Create volunteer army?

 

The Economist 24 Jul 04 "The United Nations: A Winning Recipe For Reform?" (45-6):-UN Security Councilwas set up in 45 as small, mainly key-victors' , group intended to decide/implement means ofcreating/ensuring world peace. Fundamental Western/democratic and USSR-dominating/communistgroups, with vetos, maintained such confrontation of each other that UNSC could almost never play role until end of Cold War. Meanwhile powerful war-losers and major postwar poor nations sought greaterUNSC roles too. "Kofi Annan, UNSG, set up'high-level panel of eminent personalities' to assess UN's rolein dealing with new global threats.[Interim report]appeared near agreement on one of most intractable issues..-composition of powerful decision-making body, UNSC.[E]veryone is agreed that if UNSC decisionsare to have greater political clout, they must be given greater legitimacy. [D]iscussion ...showed an 'overwhelming consensus' on proposals for expanded 24-member UNSC of 3 tiers: existing permanent 5(China, France, Russia, UK and US); second tier of 7 or 8 potentially semi-permanent members elected onregional basis for renewable term of 4 or 5 years(Brazil, Germany, India, Japan and South Africa might be in this group); and third tier of rotating regional members elected, as at present, for non-renewable 2-year term. Only permanent 5 would have veto...UNSC membership is supposed to be based not just on regional diversity, but also on members' willingness to contribute to world peace and security. But over years, many countries have ignored second criterion. Now panel want to reinforce it, particularly as basis on which thoseaspiring to second tier of membership should be judged. It suggests full review, after 12-15 years, of all members' contributions to work of UN, including its peacekeeping missions' manpower and financing. Panel has divided rest of its work into 6'baskets' : classic inter-state conflict; internal violence, includinggenocide; social and economic threats, such as poverty and disease; weapons of mass destruction;terrorism; and organized crime and corruption. Group decided early on to abandon any distinctionbetween'hard'threats, which worry rich world most, and'soft'threats, of greater concern to rest of humanity.Both, it agreed, were inextricably linked. Most difficult question has been how to deal with pre-emptive or preventive attacks, as on Iraq.[I]t recommends more active role for UNSC, under which it could authorise preventive use of force, but only after'serious and sober assessment'of threat based on'clear and compelling evidence'.[A]ppears also to have won consensus on humanitarian intervention.[P]anel hasalready confounded its critics with boldness of its proposals. It may do so again."

 

The Economist 31 Jul 04 "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40):-brief, usefully stated, item on whether/how world community could intervene in Darfur, west Sudan, where black Muslims attacked with authority of Arab Khartoum. Legal/political complications are well described, and unfortunately will be facing(or ignored by)global justice, perhaps for decades. "Under UN Convention on Genocide 1948, state signatories undertook to'prevent and punish'genocide[carefully defined].States may act alone or call on UN to take'appropriate'measures...Though Sudanese Arab militias have been targetingthree black African tribes, some Arab groups have also been attacked and some African ones spared. US Congress has called attacks genocide...African Union and various human-rights groups argue that threshold for genocide has not yet been crossed. It may not matter much, for under international law, there is no inherent right of armed humanitarian intervention, even to stop genocide. UN Charter only sanctions force in self-defence(Article 51)or when authorised by Security Council to prevent breach of peace or act of aggression(Chapter VII). It specifically forbids intervention'in matters which are essentially within domestic jurisdiction of any state',though this injunction can be overridden by Chapter VII authorisation...UN has, of course, intervened in past to stop gross violations of human rights...But it has only ever done so under Chapter VII in name of preserving peace." Darfur military intervention would draw vetos(as would have Kosovo). "Many governments, particularly poor and despotic ones, argue that national sovereignty should always trump humanitarian issues. Most western ones argue opposite. One way round possible veto would be to invoke UN'uniting for peace'resolution...UNGA may'recommend'measures, including use of force, tocounter threat to peace, if UNSC unable to act. But many reluctant to invoke instrument that they fear wouldundermine UNSC authority." Chad vital role in location uncertain. Without going through UN "need not beas drastic assault on international law as some legal sticklers fear.[I]ntervention could be justified with reference to NATO's campaign in Kosovo, which proceeded without UN approval. That might even set useful precedent for dealing with future catastrophes." [I would object to last.]

 

The Economist 07 Aug 04 "Arab Foreign Policy: Always Prickly, Sometimes Paranoid, Occasionally Pragmatic" (37-8); "Palestine: Who's In Charge?" (38); "Morocco: The Slow March To Reform" (38-9); "Iraq's Christians: Less Safe Than Before?" (39):-first report analyses outstandingly how Arab governments/peoples deal with outside world and each other; the three other reports on national Arab states provide interesting descriptions of how different attitudes/prejudices within nations delay theirprogress. Here are some top examples. Arabs find it hard to act together to solve region's manifoldproblems. Suspicion of US runs deep in Arab world and can generate strong misinterpretations of events. "Many Arab governments would sincerely like to help heal festering regional sores such as mayhem in Iraq and misery in Palestine and Darfur. Not only would this reduce risk of infection, it would also improve strained relations with superpower. But popular distrust of western, and particularly US, motives keeps getting in way." Describes how/why proposal for Islamic force in Iraq collapsed. "Arab response to Darfur crisis has been similarly fork-tongued." Syrian government paper claims real US plan is to "swallow" another chunk of Arab real estate. "Peace-minded Arab governments have been similarlyhamstrung over recent travails in Palestine [Arafat's role]...This is not to say Arab governments have always failed to help resolve such problems, when they can do so discreetly[Egypt/Arab League/Libya] Fellow Arabsalso grown more solicitous for welfare of Iraq. Increasingly indiscriminate savagery of Iraqi insurgents and their increasingly radical Islamist overtures appear to have persuaded many non-Iraqi Arabs of need to tame them...More western sensitivity to Arab concerns and less blinkered Arab prickliness about sacredness of sovereignty in countries with vicious regimes." "Palestine" : "Snarling fight between Gazans and West Bankers, mainly pitting'young guard'reformers like[Mohammed Dahlan, former head of PA security]against'old guard'survivors around Arafat." "Morocco" : "Three main independent human-rights outfits, fired up by recent Amnesty International report which said suspected Islamist radicals had been torturedat centre, demanding parliamentary oversight of[secret service]. "Iraq's Christians" : "Most chauvinist of Iraq'sSunni minority think Shias and Christians have much in common. Salafi Muslims, who forsake Islam's more tolerant tradition to apply literal word of Koran, battling to cleanse Iraq of'idol-worshippers' " .

 

The Economist 14 Aug 04 "The Latinobarometro Poll: Democracy's Low-Level Equilibrium" (35-8):-similar surveys of political and social attitudes in 18 Latin American countries(published exclusively by Economist) have been carried out since mid-90s, so system captures shifts in opinion. Valuable 8 charts of poll-collected statistics form major addition to comments." Roughly half of Latin Americans continue to support democracy, though few think it is working well...Support for democracy has edged up since last year...But in most countries it remains lower than in 1996, and in a dozen greatly so. Past year has seen sharp falls in support for democracy in[Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Peru].[T]here has been significant rise in backing for democracy since last year in[Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Panama, Venezuela].Underlying attitudes towards democracy in region are complex and not without contradiction. Some 55%(up from 50% in 2002)of respondents say they 'wouldn't mind non-democratic government if it could solve economic problems' ...Fact that 71% of respondents think that their country 'is governed for benefit of few powerfulinterests' rather than 'good of everyone'gives some support to view[lamenting failure to develop so-called 'democracy of citizens' ]and may reflect popular perceptions of region's abiding inequalities...63% say they would never support military government and 72% believe that only democracy can bring development. [C]lear majority favour market economy...Anti-US that surged over war in Iraq has not yet subsided. Jennifer McCoy "By Invitation: What Really Happened in Venezuela?" Economist 04 Sep 04(38-40):-McCoy led Carter Center's election observer mission(together with OAS)in deciding (dis)honest status of a nationwide constitution-based referendum carried out to remove or retain President Hugo Chavez. (Dis)approval vote officially required by a numerous/proven number of citizens who questioned his allegeddemocratic/radical policies. Venezuela's election agency declared that Chavez won re-approval by 59% to 41%. Article offers interesting details confirming legitimacy of emotional support. Economist 17 Sep 05"Poverty in Latin America: Not Always With Us"(Edit.13); "Poverty in Latin America: New Thinking About an Old Problem"(36-8):-these two items relate directly and seriously to Democracy's Low-Level Equilibrium described just over a year earlier. The Editorial immediately emphasizes:"Social programs that are good for democracy as well as for the fight against poverty". It argues:"Latin America is less of a stain on the world's conscience [than Africa]. Yet it has another trait: a hugely unequal distribution of income and wealth. A disproportionately large number of Latin Americans are poor - some 222m or 43%of total population, of whom 96m (or 18.6% of the total) live in extreme poverty, according to UN. Behind those figures lie not just human suffering but also an unfairness that is inimical to democracy - makingmany question its value. Fortunately, there are some reasons to think those figures will soon improve - and not just because many Latin American economies are growing strongly again... Region's democratic governments have started to make big and innovative efforts to tackle poverty. These center onprograms that offer poor families cash payments on condition, for example, that they keep their children in school and take them for regular health check-ups... Above all, they show democracies are responding to the needs of their poorest citizens. And that gives more Latin Americans a stake in democracy too".

 

The Economist 14 Aug 04 "Commonwealth Soldiers: Tommy Foreigner" (51):-qualities of combat-participants involve new things for many reasons. Mentioned elsewhere are: animals; children; conscripts; criminals; drivers; evacuees; heirs; killers; machines; mechanics; mercenaries; professionals; scientists; terrorists; torturers; women; etc. British army potentially opened its defences to almost 2 billion volunteers, and thus has proudly defeated US Pentagon to super-rule the world. "Years of tight labour market have made it hard to hire Britons, so, like many other outfits with recruitment difficulties, army is looking abroad.Ambitious young Commonwealth citizens, attracted by pay and conditions, are piling in. As result, army now has 4,500 such soldiers from 43 countries, including 1,500 Fijians and 750 Jamaicans - twice as many as it had two years ago. If army's 3,400 Nepalese Gurkhas are included, over 8% of British army is now foreign. US armed forces, which operate similar policy, boast around 38,000 foreigners, or 3% of total.Many regiments could not operate without foreigners.[T]hey are likely to dominate ranks of non-commissioned officers; and the traditional battle-scarred, foul-tongued, working-class NCO might fade into history.[A]rmy rugby team is now almost entirely Fijian, and much better for it. And Staffordshire Regiment's canteen serves Caribbean fricassee, which looked a lot tastier...than beans and chips."

 

The Economist 21 Aug 04 "Russia: A Matter of Russian Honour" (Edit.13); "Former Soviet War Zones: The Hazards of a Long, Hard Freeze" (40-1); "South Ossetia: We Don't Want War, But..." (41):-Editorial/articlereflect justifiable concern: number of post-WW II states is still suffering ability even to survive, and hurting their populations as result. One group of newly-independent states is those once part of dictatorship USSR.Both their own governments and that of Russia are often inclined to suffer instability. Items relate to three such states facing four rebel units whose imperfect status has been supported by Moscow. In Editorial, both President Putin and the West are urged to take corrective action: "Russia is working hard to regain respect and authority...But...Russia must respect other countries too, including places once ruled from Moscow. It will prosper more with friendly, confident countries around it - not weak, frustrated ones...Byoffering unconditional support to rebel regimes in Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,Russia dishonours itself/destabilizes its neighbourhood...Crisis needs delicate handling...South Ossetiais not viable state. It lives on crime. Its government needs to be closed down as part of generous settlementwhich Georgia now offers. Abkhazia, Georgia's other breakaway province, is tougher problem, and its local government even less legitimate. It speaks for even fewer of region's lawful residents.[Another]'frozen conflict'in region...is in Moldova, where another rebel statelet, Transdniestria, lives on smuggling and Russian guns. Then there is far bigger stand-off: over Nagorno-Karabakh...where decade ago Armenians broke free from Azerbaijan...All these conflicts destabilise countries." In Major Items, the origins,complexity, current situations of the four rebel movements are described. Long article concludes: "It may be time for the world to slop them out" .

 

The Economist 21 Aug 04 "The Tutsis: The'Jews' of Africa" (37-9):-article both substantial and useful. Offersmuch information about complex history involving Tutsis, including their 94 suffering of genocide in Rwanda, soon afterwards their overthrowing of terrible Congo(Zaire)government of Mobutu Sese Seko, andright up to current governments in area. Extracts here only include some special'social attitude'information affecting security." Central Africa could be stumbling towards another disastrous war.[I]t helps to examine Tutsis' relations with...neighbours ...Who are Tutsis? Some...argue that label is meaningless. But everyone in Rwanda, Burundi, Congo understands it. Stereotypical Tutsi looks like Rwanda's president, Paul Kagame:tall and thin, with a long thin nose. Other cliche about Tutsis is that they live by herding cattle, whereas theirsquat, flat-nosed neighbours(this includes Hutus) subsist by growing crops. In reality, differencesbetween...groups are blurred, and...plenty of intermarriage... Because insecurity makes people turn to theirtribe for protection, faultlines of war quickly become tribal. In this region, that often means Tutsis versus rest. Everywhere they live, Tutsis are small minority. In Rwanda, where they are perhaps 15% of population of 9m, they have been firmly in charge since 94...Public discussion of ethnic differences is, in effect,banned...In Burundi, Hutu-Tutsi relations have been improving, albeit from wretched base.[R]oughly same ethnic mix as Rwanda, but Tutsi elite has run it for much of its 40-odd years of independence, keeping majority down...Situation in Congo is most complex. Because it is so vast and thinly populated, refugees from its crowded, violent neighbours have been thronging there for over century. Some 5% of the 20m people in eastern Congo are now Tutsis. In all three countries, Tutsis feel besieged. Some Tutsis liken themselves to Israelis: they may be few in number and surrounded by enemies, but they survive because they are clever and well-organised, whereas those who would annihilate them are corrupt and incompetent. Many non-Tutsis take a less favourable view. Street talk is that Tutsis are cunning, duplicitous and bent on regional hegemony.

 

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "Third-World Water and the Private Sector: How Not To Help Those in Need" (Edit.11); "Water in Poor Countries: A Billion Thirsts Quenched" (42); "International Water Companies: The Flood Dries Up" (57-8):-all relate to problem that public/political opinion in poor countrieshas widely seen available/safe water/ sewerage as services to be provided/maintained free by governments. But latter[90%]often inadequate providers, while free consumers are very wasteful. Privatefirms face unfriendly/losing experience, although should be popular. Editorial:" In poor countries drinkingwater comes...irregularly, at some times and places not at all. Then some people die. Vastly more die in many poor countries from non-existence or inadequacy of sewerage systems. [Where firm seeks consumers' payment,]affair has become classic among those[NGOs/]anti-capitalists who argue that water falls free from sky, is basic human need and right, and so no one should profit from supplying it. All of which is true, except conclusion. Rain falls free, but someone has to spend money and deploy skills in getting it to tap, and removing it in sewer. Best organization to do this may well be profit-driven water company[but it is strongly criticized]...Such woes are common in developing world. So is shortage of capital. No wonder World Bank has long called for private-sector skills and money to be brought in" . Second item says WHO claims" sicknesses caused by dirty water and poor sanitation kill about 4,000 children globally each day.[While UN claims]between 90 and 02, extra 1.1b started to enjoy regular supplies of safe water[,b]ecause water infrastructure has not been self-funding,..not been extended to poorest areas, sopoorest have ended up paying inflated prices to black-market water-sellers" .Third item reports manypolitical/business/financial problems faced by private water firms in Third World.

 

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "The Laws of War: Trials and Tribulations" (27-8):-article contains so much important information about legalism against/within Pentagon, select outline offered. Follows two groups ofEconomist articles summarized above: 19 Jun "The Bush Administration And the Torture Memo:..." and 03 Jul "The Supreme Court and Guantanamo Bay:..." , first phrases of first titles in each. Two badly-treated groups of US military "prisoners" were "legally" reported on. In Abu Ghraib, Iraqi jail, military prisoners were tortured by US; in Guantanamo Bay, perpetually leased US naval base in Cuba, status of 600 mostly-Afghanistan-captured, possibly terrorist individuals, had been viewed for years as unaffected byUS/Cuban/Afghan/international law. Two reports on responsibility for Abu Ghraib action: by Major-General George Fay, head of internal army inquiry, which blamed abuse on" small group of morally corrupt soldiers and civilians" ; by James Schlesinger, former defence secretary and head of independent panel, which attributes worst abuse to unauthorised" freelance" activities by soldiers, and makes 14 recommendations on how to avoid further brutalities. As regards Guantanamo Bay detainees, Supreme Court had ruled in Jun they had right to challenge their detention in US courts, "until now plunged into what has been described as legal black hole" . American Bar Association condemned" widespread pattern of abusive detention methods[which]feed terrorism by painting US as an arrogant nation above law" .Schlesinger urges government to "update" approach to international humanitarian law, taking particular heed of case for" reciprocity and preservation of US societal values international image that flows from adherence to recognised humanitarian standards." Administration has introduced military commissions to begin preliminary hearings in trials of first four detainees, 2.5 years after first terrorist suspects arrived. Pentagon insists tribunals will give detainees "full and fair" trials in accordance with international standards of justice, and states them.Military defence lawyers object. General arguments on both sides described.

 

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "China: The Great Leap West" (38):-fine report on scale/impact of "Hanification" (Chinese race and rule)in vast, extreme-western Chinese Xinjiang province, historic area of Uighurs: Muslin Turkic people. Kashgar, Uighurs' key/most western city, forcefully resembling Shanghai/Shenzhen in Han population, structure, even economy, since area now offers new railway, oil pipeline, and large state subsidies. Worse," since 11 Sep 01, Beijing...link[ed]Uighur nationalist groups to al-Qaeda, even announcing...1,000 Uighur trained with Osama bin Laden. [F]ew Uighurs did indeed fightfor Taliban...but most support non-violence[;]little evidence of significant al-Qaeda links.[While]Chinaonce tarred all Uighurs as terrorists.,.now defines terrorist in Xinjiang as anyone who thinks' separatist thoughts' ...and recently detained tens of thousands.,.executed many[AI report. R]ecently said crackdownwould continue indefinitely. [S]mall-scale clashes break out nearly every day.;.instability scares off foreign investors[e.g.pipeline. M]oderate Uighurs, who want autonomy but not necessarily independence, worrythat repression and Chinese immigration are playing into hands of most hardline, conservative elementsin Uighur society. Though Uighurs historically were among world's most liberal/pro-western Muslims,fundamentalist Islam gaining sway among young Uighur men. Still, there is hope. Recognizing threatposed by hardliners, leading moderate... diaspora[united]behiind one leader, Erkin Alptekin.[S]on of pre-1949 president of independent Xinjiang, can become their Dalai Lama, promoting Uighur case in West and serving as moderate, unifying force for nation." Economist 06 Nov 04 "China: Mayhem, Martial Law and Mobiles" (45):-hostility/clash between Chinese of Han majority and Muslim minority may reflect government's above-noted terrorist propaganda against Uighurs or much more varied threat of mayhem. "In Henan province.,.traffic accident[generated majority-minority clash]. Officials confirmed 7 deaths/42 injuries in four days fighting before paramilitary police imposed martial law.[Reports claim]thousands of Hui travelled to scene of riot...to take part in clashes, and that death toll may have been far higher.[F]or China...ethnic discord between Han and Hui is not directly related to deepening hostilitybetween Muslims and non-Muslims in rest of world[,but]that could be changing...Han have been more suspicious and disdainful of China's own Muslims, who in response have turned more defensive.[Also, recent]reports about other incidents of unrest across China. In Sichuan...100,000 farmers took part in violent protests against meagre compensation received after being forced to make way for new dam.In...largest city, quarrel among locals turned violent, with reports of police cars burned and government buildings looted. In[other]provinces labour disputes also turn violent. While those episodes were not connected, Chinese authorities terrified at prospect that future incidents might be. Tension, after all, is rife in China. Unpaid wages are common flashpoint for urban workers, as are arbitrary land grabs by authorities in countryside. Economic hardship and unchecked corruption are facts of life throughout China, and ethnic strife never far below surface wherever minorities live.[F]ear of seeing isolated incidentsturn into prairie fire, guides China's handling of unrest. In Henan, outsiders were barred from region,phone lines swiftly cut, and local media...scrubbed.[Yet]modern communications - mobile phones, text messaging, e-mail - make it easy for malcontents anywhere in China to spread news and link up with others."

 

The Economist 04 Sep 04 "Iran: Decision Time Approaches" (Edit.14-5); "Defiant Iran: The World of the Ideologues" (23-6):-items emphasize ultra-religious power over nation, conservative majority outnumberingreform representatives. Most serious global implication is Iran's development of nuclear weapons, despite deals with both IAEA/EU visitors. Ayatollahs' " grip again crushing breath out of would-be reformers. Critics in press are locked up. Human rights are trampled. New conservative-dominated parliament hassquelched plans for much-needed economic reforms. With hard-liners in ascendant, hope of turning aside Iran's troubling nuclear ambitions fading too...Would it matter if Iran did get bomb? It no longer attempts to export revolution, and it lives in dangerous neighbourhood...Iran fires off rhetorical salvoes, not missiles. Wouldn't nuclear-armed Iran be similarly deterred, since any attempt to use its weapons would invite devastating response?...Nuclear chain reaction could quickly see Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and even Turkey follow suit...Iran's[NPT]violations would also fatally undermine treaty...Outsiders now have two options: more diplomacy or force." These are discussed in Editorial, while major essay concludes: "Meanwhile, the nuclear clock ticks on." Economist 25 Sep "Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: Still Heading for a Showdown" (58):-adds discouraging facts, options and implications to serious situation. Although Pres. Khatami just re-emphasized" have made our choice: yes to peaceful nuclear technology and no to nuclear weapons" , few are convinced. IAEA" inspectors turned up more evidence of past wrongdoing, and Iran has turned more belligerent." IAEA Board will decide on latest report in Nov whether to send Iran's case to UNSC, which could apply sanctions. Iran already constrains IAEA inspectors, andwould then drop from NPT. It has already back-tracked on previous agreement to suspend uranium-enrichment-related activity, and "work already under way to convert 37 tonnes of uranium ore into gasthat could later be fed into fast-spinning centrifuge machines to produce enriched uranium - enough forseveral bombs if diverted to military use...Iran still seems keen to avoid being reported to UNSC,[but] seemsdetermined to hang on to nuclear option" . Economist 06 Nov 04 "Iran: The Nuclear Debate" (48-9):-another description of how "Iranians are still in nuclear bind." Descriptions are essentially of short-term difficultiesand possible proposals, so "future" relevance is unchanged. Even transfer of issue to UNSC might be ineffectual since China(buying Iranian oil and gas)and/or Russia(Iran's main civilian nuclear supplier)might use vetos. US fears EU proposal to persuade Iran to freeze its nuclear fuel cycle would again let Iran "develop their program secretly." Also, "Iran's parliament, now dominated by hardliners, approved framework for bill to compel government to develop fully a nuclear capability - including, says parliament's speaker, nuclear fuel cycle...Only US, it seems, might dissuade Iran from pressing ahead with enrichment/reprocessing plans. [But even]military strikes on suspected nuclear installations in Iran, perhaps by Israel, feeling most directly threatened by prospect of Iranian nuclear bomb, are fraught with risk(Shia chaos sowed across Iraq/Afghan borders).Economist 13 Nov 04 "Europe and Iran:The Nuclear Route" (13); "Iran:The Nuclear Squeeze" (51-2); "Iran-EU Agreement on Nuclear Programme" [Text of Agreement]IAEA.ORG 14 Nov; Elaine Sciolino "Britain, France and Germany Announce Accord With Iran" New York Times 15 Nov; "UN Partly Clears Iran on Nuclear Issue, Doubts Remain" Reuters 15 Nov; "U.N. OKs Iran Deal to Suspend Enrichment" Associated Press 15 Nov; "IAEA Director General Report on Iran Nuclear Verification Sent to Agency's Board" [Text Restricted; Can be made public by IAEA Board]IAEA.ORG 15 Nov; "Iran: Nuclear Ambitions Delayed" Economist 18 Nov;Richard Beeston "Powell Says Iran Is Making Nuclear Missiles" The Times 19 Nov;Elaine Sciolino "U.N. Official Says Iranians Seem to Curb Atom Activity" NYT 23 Nov:-EU has negotiated another Agreement whereby Iran is hoped to stop its preparation of nuclear weapons at least for a time. Reports are complementary with each other, and easily accessible. They are listed rather than summarized since rationale/text/popularity/effectiveness of Agreement complex. Economist 11 Dec 04 "Iran: Still Failing, Still Defiant" (23-5):-meets important needraised by Agreement with EU: provides relatively detailed/estimated description of Iran's current regime/economy/motives/stability/future prospects. Summary of Special Report: "In the short run, Iran is getting grimmer. One day ruling ayatollahs will lose their deadening grip on power. But not soon." Item notes many are unhappy with tough conservative religious authority, some so miserable an estimated200,000 emigrate annually. In addition 16% are officially jobless. "As things stand, Iran will probably attainthe capacity to make a bomb and, after Indian-style period of'strategic ambiguity',break out of the NPT. It would be unlikely ever to use this weapon. But it would be safer, perhaps, from the sort of attacklaunched on it by Saddam Hussein 24 years ago."

 

The Economist 11 Sep 04 "Kosovo's March Riots: The Audit of War" (47):-full information on bloody and humiliating event in Kosovo in Mar 04 now available, and gives evidence international forces almost totally failed in their responsibilities. "Rampaging of thousands of ethnic Albanians through Kosovo...was worst violence since NATO took charge of province in 99(and included)18,000 NATO peacekeepers, plus 3,500 UN policemen to be able to stop it. Yet three days of ethnic cleansing ensued,...leaving 19 Serbs and ethnic Albanians dead, 900 wounded, 4,000 non-Albanians displaced and hundreds of Serb churches and homes torched. Peacekeepers and policemen had five years' experience of ethnic-Albanian and Serbviolence...and were equipped with everything from helicopter gunships to riot-sticks. Faced mobs armed with stones, grenades, petrol bombs and Kalashnikovs. Even so, many peacekeepers...proved woefullyincompetent...International pressure-group concluded...NATO's mission, known as K-FOR, failed to protectethnic minorities, too often turning blind eye to Serb homes being attacked and UN police officers calling for help...Report by UN...on performance of its Kosovo mission...says many feared UNMIK and K-FOR wouldcollapse if riots had gone on for another day or two; mission was already on point of overstaying its welcome. UNMIK people were seen as aloof strangers in society they governed. Since then, improvementsmade but problem remains...Story of international peacekeepers' successes and failures in Kosovo oftenstory of confronting or being manipulated by ethnic-Albanian extremists. Right now ethnic-Albanian hot-heads seem to have upper hand." Relevant to this violent relationship between ethnic groups in Kosovo are two specialized reports in Global Governance Vol.10/No.3(Jul-Sep 04):Leopold von Carlowitz "Crossing the Boundary from the International to the Domestic Legal Realm: UNMIK Lawmaking and Property Rights in Kosovo" ; Julie Mertus "Improving International Peacebuilding Efforts: The Example of Human Rights Culture in Kosovo" .Both allude to UNMIK facing difficult ethnic rivalries.

 

The Economist 11 Sep 04 "China: No Right to Work" (37-8):-the huge scale/growth of PRC's economy, andhesitant pre-democracy of its regime have made this nation's stability an issue of international interest. Hence widespread interest in global effects/healthiness of its rapid growth, potentially massive violence of its political pride, and widespread instability of its domestic corruptions/frustrations. This estimate of Chinese unemployment contributes. "China's official figures hugely understate growing problem.[PM]Wen declared unemployment to be top priority for administration. Most people agree urban unemployment growing, but statistical quagmire of government's making renders it difficult to assess how bad problem really is...Last year government put urban unemployment rate at 4.3%...But everyone knows figure little to do with reality.[B]loated state-owned enterprises...shed much excess labour. Many simplyclosed, [resulting] in job losses for staggering 24m workers, or about 10% of urban labour force. [M]ore biglayoffs imminent at some...state-owned commercial banks, which already shed some 250,000 staff.[S]ome2,500 state-owned mines and large enterprises with total staff of 5.1m due to be shut.[M]any Chineseanalysts put figure at around 8-10% in urban areas...Regional variations considerable. [North-east areas]plagued in recent years by frequent, albeit orderly, and mostly small, demonstrations by laid-offworkers/retired employees. Unemployment rates ...like mining towns, dependent on just few industries, probably as high as 40%. All this unsettling to[" still socialist" ] government struggling...legitimacy in eyes of cynical public, and which has ingrained aversion to unrest.[O]fficial figures cover only...registered urbanresidents. But in some big cities 20-30% population made up of migrant workers from countryside, most of whom not classified city-dwellers.[I]f cannot find work, they return to countryside...Another distortion high level of hidden employment.[A]s much as 60% of laid-off workers... in fact employed informally. [P]rivate-sector employment much higher than...reported.[C]hina ignores rural areas when calculating unemployment ...since villagers...land-use rights...Even so, 150m or so rural-dwellers have little or nothing to do and in coming years may move to urban areas. This...will add to urban employment pressures just as China facesbaby-boom surge in labour force and thanks to heavy investment in capital-intensive production,diminishing employment from growth. Economist 09 Oct 04 "China: Help Wanted" (39-40):-fascinating item conveys unexpected news of sudden/substantial shortage of even unskilled labour along booming Chinese coast - globally famous flood of unemployed migrants from poor countryside has expensively evaporated. Manager:" We're lucky these days to fill one of every two jobs available" .Officials report "municipality is short of around 270,000 workers; worrying phenomenon for area producing [20%]Guangdong exports...Pearl River delta...short of about 2m.[S]hortage of unskilled labour now particularly evident in belt of manufacturing cities along coast from Guangdong up[to]south of Shanghai.Number of labour disputes risen sharply, in part sign of tight labour market...Although...huge influx of labour from rural areas into cities in recent times(about 100m as of last year), barriers prevented many migrants from settling down[or using local]social security and health-care provisions...And there may now be greater temptation to stay on farms because of unusually rapid growth of rural incomes in recent months, caused by rising food prices. Incomes in first half of year rose by more than 16%...Demand for labour has been pushed up by huge influx of foreign investment($53.5b last year), as well as surge ofdomestic investment.[F]actory managers face choice of increasing wages...shifting to less labour-intensive production or moving to areas where cheap labour more abundant. [Vietnam?]Myth of China's infinitely cheap, and as some factory owners hoped, infinitely exploitable labour is beginning to crumble." Joseph Kahn "The Great Divide/Talking Back To Power: China's 'Haves' Stir the 'Have Nots' to Violence" New York Times 31 Dec 04:-substantial description of a serious riot in Wanzhou, a Yangtze River port city, offers the following more widespread information near the beginning: "Minor street quarrel provokes mass riot. Communist Party, obsessed with enforcing social stability, has few worse fears. Yet...nearly a dozen such incidents in past three months, many touched off by governmentcorruption/police abuse/inequality of riches accruing to powerful/well connected.'People can see how corrupt government is while they barely have enough to eat.'...Though it is experiencing one of most spectacular economic expansions in history, China having more trouble maintaining social order thanat any time since Tiananmen Square democracy movement in 89. Police statistics show number of publicprotests reached nearly 60,000 in 03, increase of nearly 15% from 02 and eight times number a decade ago. Martial law and paramilitary troops are commonly needed to restore order when police lose control...Protests may be so numerous in part because they are small, local expressions of discontent over layoffs, land seizures, use of natural resources, ethnic tensions, misspent state funds, forced immigration, unpaid wages or police killings. Yet several mass protests...show how people with different causes can seize an opportunity to press their grievances together. Police recently arrested several advocates of peasant rights suspected of helping to coordinate protest activities nationally. Those areworrying sign for one-party state, reflexively wary of even hint of organized."

 

The Economist 18 Sep 04 "The Muslim World: The War For Islam's Heart" (51-2):-quite an objective essay on how and why Muslims are deeply split in reaction to "Islamic" terrorism. Neither its intense supporters nor horrified critics are predicted to win unquestioned support. Since 11 Sep 01, "anguish among world's 1.2b Muslims has not diminished. Other Muslim fanatics carried out other fearful crimes in name of Islam. And non-Muslim armies have stomped into Muslim-populated lands to prosecute war on terrorthat some perceive as war on Islam. Result is that ordinary Muslims find themselves confronted with increasingly fierce claims for possession of their faith. Rival narratives have emerged at either end of the extremely broad Muslim spectrum, and they could scarcely be more different.[Some decry]fact that, while it is obvious all Muslims not terrorists, it is sadly apparent...nearly all terrorists happen to be Muslims. [Yet spokesman for Iraqi jihadist group claims:]Wherever you cast your eye... you find only one truth, which is that infidels are slaying Muslims' in every way , in every land, and with overspilling hatred'...Withgrowing stridency, Muslim liberals are saying that it is high time for Muslims to act, to stop their faith from being hijacked and turned into cult-like vehicle for clash of civilizations. Their sense is that violence of radical minority is not merely ruining sympathy for just Muslim causes in such contested places as Chechnya and Palestine, it is beginning to threaten Muslims' peaceful coexistence with others everywhere. For their part, jihadists[are convicted] that sympathy for Muslim causes never existed in the first place.Islam...is so imperilled that fighting for its survival is not merely right, but sublime duty. And so vicious are its enemies that any means may be used to deter them, more shockingly cruel, more effective. Ultimately, they believe, Islam will triumph only if all foreign influence is chased from vast, unified Islamic state." Item then looks at reaction of non-Muslim world, and Muslim perception/tales/fears.

 

The Economist 25 Sep 04 "Russia and the West: The End of the Affair?" (66):-while reports varied views on key motives/effects, article concludes: "Russia's relations with West are deteriorating." Recent event that raised concern about exchanges was terrorist occupation of children/teachers/parents-filled school in Beslannear Chechnya; it ended in terrible civilian massacre. Informing nation, "President Vladimir Putin conjured up spectre of manipulative foreign powers exploiting terrorism to weaken Russia...Russians used tomoans from soft Europeans; from US they expect harder-headed pragmatism...Russian liberals see thiscontre-temps as foreign-policy turning-point.[Putin,] insatiable centraliser at home...is emerging as incorrigible great-power nationalist abroad.[He]still sees Russia's interests in terms of spheres of influence. Worse,'Russian'values that Putin espouses in...human rights/strong government, make closerintegration with West impossible...Russia seemed pursuing'normal'foreign policy, but in reality it was detente in another guise. In future,..mutual suspicion will co-exist with Russia's westward energy sales...If Putin wants to fall out further with West, he has chances aplenty coming up[e.g. leadership of Ukraine,Belarus, Georgia]." Kremlin sympathisers, however, argue that critical statements toward each other byBush and Putin actually motivated by their own domestic political concerns. "Underneath...two presidents still understand each other and get along fine. Truth probably lies somewhere in between. Russia's relations with West not as bad as they sometimes were in volatile Yeltsin years. Putin picks his fight carefully: witness his relative equanimity over NATO's eastward expansion. He may refrain from provocations in Georgia. But he is certainly no internationalist. All parties feel short-changed by theirexperience of past few years: Europeans over Russia's human-rights and democratic failings; US overIraq; Putin over meddling and misunderstandings on terrorism. New period of great-power rivalry may be far off; but Russia's closer integration with West is probably even more remote."

 

The Economist 25 Sep 04 "China: Hu Done It" (Edit.14); "China: What Price Reform?" (53-4):-Hu Jintao, national President and General Secretary of Communist Party, just acquired third/final national powerful office, Chair of party's Central Military Commission(effectively PLA commander-in-chief); "crucial role ofarmed forces...is to keep party in power." Hu is now apparently in sole charge. Little to suggest Hu's reform strategy differs much from Jiang Zemin, his predecessor: "both men realise need to adjust party's dictatorial and secretive style to something more in tune with China's changed economic/social environment;...both accept reform should proceed with caution, lest forces it unleashes topple party." Hu contended" [I]n China copying model of western political systems is dead-end road" ,and felt Hong Kong's hopes for democratic change must be crushed. Yet party has already promoted small-scale, partly-free election experiments in scattered areas, strengthening "intra-party democracy" ," essential prerequisite to making system as a whole more accountable. [I]n next couple of years, similar experiments likely to be launched in many more areas of China, but in low-level party structures." Hu's attitude towards foreign policy is important "now China has become engaged/influential member of community of nations." China has already worked hard to engage with US and ASEAN, proved remarkably calm as US has gone about war on terror, joined WTO, contributed usefully to peacekeeping operations, aimed at defusing crisis over North Korea. However, Taiwan could produce turbulent time in next year(s). Its president, Chen Shui-bian, would like to advance, at least incrementally, cause of Taiwanese independence. Hu said to favour more cautious line than Jiang's hawkish one, but "no imaginative thinking yet emerged" although "sorely needed" . Economist 02 Oct "The EU and China: Don't Lift the Arms Ban" (Edit. 13-4); "Taiwan and China: Tit For Tat" (44):-both items express concern about Chinese-Taiwanese conflict. Editorial reports China wants EU to remove its 15-year-old ban on arms sales. Some big EU members feel gesture, regarding Tiananmen Square massacre, is now anachronism when China modern, more stable place. "Keeping ban, which covers defence technology as well as weapons, has strategic as well as political value. China's armsbuild-up in recent years has been aimed chiefly at intimidating Taiwan...Europeans should first expectsustained improvement in China's human-rights record and, above all, recognition that, whateverdifferences with Taiwan, these must be settled peacefully." Other item reports Taiwan's PM just suggested, for first time, "Taiwan should consider building missile force with aim of establishing'balance of terror'to fend off China's threats...Some on Taiwan argue that defensive weapons US helps island to acquire...may not be enough to keep stable cross-strait balance. [Since]China threat is nearer term and growing,..cheaper, quicker and more effective...for Taiwan to develop missiles of its own. US always discouraged that, although Taiwan has tinkered about with ballistic-missile technology[and]recently tested new cruise-type missiles...Reports China considering temporarily setting aside insistence on'one-China principle'in working out framework to get Taiwan to negotiating table. Reuters "China Warns Taiwan Against Provoking Conflict" New York Times 15 Nov:-in rare interview, Wang Zaixi, vice minister of PRCpolicy-making Taiwan Affairs Office, accused Taiwan of exploiting mainland's restraint/focus on economy/preparations for 08 Olympics.'I think unavoidable tension will rise in Taiwan Straits, and theremay even be armed conflict...if island keeps bumping Beijing's one-China bottom line, and pushes for independence'said Wang.'Chen Shui-bian authorities exploiting our restraint on Taiwan issue'.Flirtingwith independence is' extremely dangerous behaviour that's playing with fire.'" Joseph Kahn "China's Army May Respond if Taiwan Fully Secedes" NYT 18 Dec:- "Taiwan's Nationalist Party-led opposition won surprise victory in legislative elections against parties supporting President Chen Shui-bian, considered pro-independence. Nationalist Party called for improving relations with mainland; generally opposes independence. Election marked first time in years Taiwan party favoring improved relations prevailed in democratic poll against rivals who advocate steps toward independence.[But]mainland officials would bereluctant to stop saber-rattling after one-time election setback for Chen...Communist Party-controlledlegislature indicated preparing to enact law against secession, possibly mandating military action ifTaiwan were to declare independence.[P]assage of law basically reiterates existing policy. But outlawing secession may be an attempt to counter skepticism in Taiwan that China would really start a war it might not win.[Believed]law would address only China's reaction if Taiwan declared statehood, rather thanrequiring active steps by mainland to force reunification. Mandating reunification would appear to violateChina's repeated pledges to US to maintain status quo in cross-strait relations."

 

The Economist 02 Oct 04 "Near-Earth Objects: Far Away, So Close" (80):-item reports asteroid several kilometres in diameter had just come within 1.5m km of earth. If it had hit, it might have ended human civilization. Event leads article on current asteroid surveys and defences(for previous threat items seeAssociated Press 12 Jan 00 op.cit.). "Spaceguard[asteroid search program by NASA]began in 98. Since then...number of known near-Earth objects [NEOs](includes...also comets whose orbits regularly sweep them close)increased dramatically. Spaceguard's stated goal was to discover 90% of near-Earth asteroids larger than 1km in width by 2008...Value of 1km chosen as cut-off because asteroids this size or larger...likely to cause global...calamity...Over 70% of large asteroids...found already... But even if Spaceguard does succeed, another problem remains-smaller asteroids, of size believed to have causeda huge explosion above Tunguska, Russia, 1908. While 1km-size and bigger asteroids thought to hit onlyonce every 500,000 years, on average, rocks 50-100 metres across, like Tunguska object, thought to hit every thousand years... [S]hould start in 08 to catalogue 90% of potentially hazardous NEOs...bigger than 140 metres.[D]espite success of efforts so far, and likely success of future efforts,...no official plan in place for dealing with any hazardous asteroid... found to be on collision course.[D]etonating nuclear weapon next to object to divert its course seen as too uncertain. Alternative - strapping rocket engines to rock and using their thrust to alter orbit - would not work either, unless project began several decades before impact.[S]cientists' ...goal to develop way of altering course of asteroid using an ion rocket, which pusheselectrically charged atoms out of the back...[S]ystem could be ready testing by 2015."

 

The Economist 02 Oct 04 "Crime and Policing in Latin America: The Battle For Safer Streets" (35-6):-survey of entire area describes: virtually all nations in vast/economically-varied zone face serious and violent criminal problems (with proud exception of Chile)widely permitted/supported by inefficient and/or corrupt police staff. Also adds description of many and wise police/law reform programs, also in variety of nations. "Across region, opinion polls show crime second only to economic worries as public concern" and in 04 public demonstrated/focused elections against crime(Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico)where "feeling of helplessness in face of woeful criminal-justice system. Statistics patchy/unreliable[,b]ut in many countries violent crime rife. Some particularly nasty crimes increasing" :kidnapping/murder/theft." Some causes...socio-economic conditions: poverty/inequality; swift/chaotic urbanization; joblessness especially among[many]young males. Drug trade created powerful criminalsyndicates across region. But above all, crime common because criminals rarely caught/punished.[M]any Latin Americans do not bother to report crimes[,and]see police as part of problem, not solution...With reason: police too often abusive/corrupt/incompetent,even criminal...Some of what is wrong...stems from history. Under dictatorships, police were often militarised - and were poor relation of armed forces. Two things flowed from this - and still do" : reaction to crime rather than prevention of it; wages/discipline/ structures poor." Across region, reform efforts of varying scope under way. One response is to throwmoney at problem...In contrast, many reformers stress better management, cracking down on corruptionand...merging or linking up different forces. Also want...closer relations between police and public, andbetter police training/working conditions...Task for politicians is to respond to public anger while not allowing it to derail long-term reforms of police so urgently needed."

 

The Economist 09 Oct 04 "India: Cohabiting, For Now" (37-8):-first of 3 items in issue, all making even more complex the previous serious key/positive reporting on India's new Congress government, found viaEconomist 12 Jun 04 "India's Economic Reform" .These items analyse whether Congress' leader, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, and its PM, Manmohan Singh, are so far able to:(1)achieve crucial reform plans;(2)maintain domestic order against rebellions;(3)deal with US over nuclear issues. India seems on edge of becoming global force like China.(1)Apparent Congress popularity just been confirmed by winning big election in Maharashtra over BJP, previous national government party. Yet Gandhi and Singh operation beset by doubts:" about how[they]would share power/manage disparate coalition; and about whether policymakingwould be crippled by need to retain support, from outside formal coalition of two Communist parties on which it relies for parliamentary majority." Communists raised some difficulties because of "objections to economic reforms with which Singh/team identified." If heeded, policy may be paralysed. "Contentious issues ...include privatising airports, raising cap on foreign investment in insurance/telecommunicationsindustries,..cutting subsided interest rates paid to pensioners through provident fund[,and]to abolish big irritant to potential foreign investors." Big storm arose in Planning Commission when it was sought to appoint World Bank advisors etc. but now free to talk to anyone. No problem over nation-wide value-added tax; Communists anyway do not want to bring them down. Factional feuding low-key.(2) "India's North-East: The Terror Spreads" (38):-Congress government faces criticism for handling of worseningterrorist problem in country's north-east. Over 70 were killed 2-5 Oct alone in series of explosions and gunattacks. Blamed on two secessionist outfits in seven region states(over 200 ethnic groups).One wantsindependence for Assam; other wants separate homeland for Bodo. Bhutan army overran camps used by refugees but Bangladesh/Myanmar seen to harbour terrorists. Nagaland sees violence in spite of ceasefire by independence group. Many separatist groups in Manipur accuse Indian forces of human-rights abuses. "Region's conflicts are too many, too complex and too overlapping to be settled by foreign military action alone. But...panicked[Indian]government is rushing fresh troops." "Nuclear Proliferation: A Game For All To Play" (38-9):- US just fingered two senior Indian scientists for(like Pakistan)secretly cooperating with Iran over nuclear power industry and illicit weapons programs. "Both men flatly deny wrongdoing[and claim to have]helped Iran with safety advice.[India]demanded...two men's names be dropped from sanctions list.[US]may relate to process Indian nuclear scientists invented to extract tritium(used to boost explosive power of nuclear bombs)from heavy water used in some..power reactors.[US]has long been keen to work with India on nuclear projects, showing interest in India's plans for nuclear-powered submarine. Indian firms ticked off by US for other sorts of weapons cooperation with Iran. But India has generally been careful to avoid sensitive nuclear areas. In recent years, it has not wanted to upset improving ties with US. However, India's new Congress-led government already proving pricklier. Row over nuclear scientists could yet help sour what both hoped could be emerging strategic partnership." Economist 30 Oct 04 "India and Pakistan: Commando Diplomacy" (48):-meanwhile, new situation may have developed regarding extremely difficult Kashmir problem. Pakistan's General PervezMusharraf proposed an unprecedented compromise for peace negotiations with India." He noted thatKashmir has seven regions, two in Pakistan and five in India. He argued that some or all of these regions should be demilitarised and their status changed. Result could be independence, 'condominium'between India and Pakistan, or a UN mandate." While India "has long been prepared to settle for line of control as international boundary,..some form of'enhanced autonomy'and a solution seems at least possible."

 

The Economist 16 Oct 04 "Sri Lanka's Peace Process: As Good As It Gets?" (39-40):-Sri Lanka, huge and charming island state south of India, has population of about 20m, of which roughly 75% essentiallyBuddhist Sinhalese and roughly 20% essentially Hindu-oriented Tamils. Force from latter has been waging 20-year war for independent Tamil homeland. "For year and a half, Sri Lanka's peace process has beenlocked in ugly stalemate. In April 2003, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, who had been waging...forindependence to north and east of island, withdrew from talks with government. Since then, ceasefireagreed on year earlier has held, despite violations. Norwegian diplomats, who helped arrange it, haveexpressed fears antagonists' 'incredible complacency'masks' melting at the edges' of frozen war. Butneither side seems to want to plunge into renewed conflict...Formal disagreement with government that is stopping talks concerns their scope...Tigers fear government will block interim authority, thwarting hopesthat Tiger-controlled areas might start enjoying...assistance promised to Sri Lanka in return for peace.Government fears interim authority will pre-empt final outcome, and turn into new platform for Tiger bid forfull statehood. These differences...do not seem unbridgeable. True obstacles to talks lie in two sides' internal troubles" .Splits within sides fully explained. There is "enough on their plates without eithernegotiating peace or taking up arms again...Economic complacency may be even less justified than the political variety."

 

The Economist 16 Oct 04 "Kosovo: Status Quo?" (48):- "Albanians' status" dilemma is a serious problem for all parts of south-west Balkans. This is because the political wishes/future of significant Albanian communities living in "foreign" areas bordering Albania are inter-related national dilemmas, threatening high birthrates and renewed violence. A substantial Albanian population "abroad" is found in five other Balkan nations: relatively "pure" Serbia proper; Serbia's Albanian-dominated Kosovo province; Macedonia;Montenegro; and Greece. The first three are issues. For various historic factors and multiple options, read: "Albanians in the Balkans" , 9-page Special Report 77 of United States Institute of Peace, 01 Nov 01,www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr77.html. "Kosovo..." offers extremely complex situation surrounding trans-Kosovo Oct election in UN protectorate. "[P]oll matters because talks are likely to begin next year on its final status. More than 90% of population is ethnic Albanian. Overwhelmingly, they want nothing less thanfull independence." After serious attacks by Albanian extremists(reported in Economist 11 Sep 04 op.cit.) leading Serbs urged boycott of poll, and also pushed for concentration of Serb areas in north Kosovoincluding 220,000 Kosovo Serbs now in Serbia. Another Serb proposal: have Kosovo partitioned, with mostly Serb-inhabited north joining Serbia. But research claims only 65,000 refugees in Serbia, many of whom would not come anyway, and that two-thirds of 128,000 still in Kosovo live rurally in south; harderto make into either enclaves or partition. Albanian total in Kosovo also needs determination [1.5m? 2.2m?]. "Without reliable data, hard to make plans for health and education, let alone for elections or forindependent state." Economist 30 Oct 04 "Serbia and Kosovo: Pyrrhic Victory" (57-8):-Albanian-Serbian relations now moving? "[Kosovo] remains in a sort of legal no-man's-land. In diplomatic theory,sovereignty over Kosovo is vested in'Serbia and Montenegro', union of the only two republics of former Yugoslavia...still yoked together[and quite liable to separate]. In practice, province run by UN, which has been transferring power to local institutions - in other words, to territory's ethnic-Albanian majority. For Albanians, [23 Oct 04 Kosovo]poll changed little: all ethnic-Albanian parties solidly in favour ofindependence, and all those representing Kosovo's minority Serbs solidly against.[PM of Serbia,]Kostunica feels Serbs should not lend legitimacy to province's' multinational'governance, because that was torn to shreds by...anti-minority violence which chased 4,000 Serbs and Roma from their homes[see 11 Sep Economist op.cit. A]ll but 1% of Kosovo's Serbs ...eschewed[Oct]ballot...Kostunica...probably wants to forestall talks on Kosovo's final status, because, despite this electoral fillip, he really has no credible proposal for political future of territory. At moment he is pushing for plan which foresees autonomy forSerbian areas within Kosovo, which would, for now at least, remain under international tutelage. But plan unworkable[see earlier]... Meanwhile, Kosovo Serbs have no legitimate representatives to speak on their behalf; their future more precarious than ever. With no serious Serbian interlocutors ready to engage in talks, some Albanians may say it is time to dig up their guns; and now they may target not only Serbs, but Western troops or international bureaucrats." [No mention of moving Kosovo's border with Serbia both upand down, where they live.] Economist 02 Apr 05"Kosovo's Future: After Haradinaj"(46):-brings situation forward somewhat by noting there will be"Tense moments before final-status talks can begin". Initial point is that the relatively competant former Kosovo PM, Ramush Haradinaj, is "now in custody in The Hague [since] he faces charges before the Yugoslav war-crimes tribunal" as rebel commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army(KLA). "Kosovo's (still provisional) government is assuming ever-increasing responsibility as UN-led administration devolves power in the run-up to talks due to start later this year on province's final status".Before such talks, UN requires Kosovo "show progress towards a number of internationally imposed standards, in such areas as good democratic governance and respect for minorities". UN may "permit final talks on Kosovo's status to begin this autumn".But Albanian-Serbian relations still threaten;Economist 04 Jun 05"Kosovo's Final Status: Independence Dreams"(51-2):-"UNSC has given the go-ahead for talks that could culminate in independence for Kosovo. Six years after the end of the Kosovo war, it signalled on 27 May a new determination by the western powers to open talks on the final statusof the disputed province. The fear is that, if Kosovo is not seen to be moving towards independence soon, the UN mission and NATO troops in Kosovo might be faced with an ethnic Albanian equivalent of Palestine's intifada"; Economist 08 Oct 05"Kosovo's Status: The Wheels Grind On"(60-1):-"A 'frank'report clears way for negotiations on Kosovo's future... On 04 Oct, a long-awaited report on status of Kosovo was handed to Kofi Annan, UNSG. By Dec, UN-sponsored talks are expected to start on future of territory still bitterly contested between ethnic Serbs and Albanians. With most observers expecting talks to lead to Kosovo's independence, there is, or at least there should be, a sense of history being made; in the words of province's UN boss, a 'moment of truth'is looming... Report...will excoriate Albanian leaders for failing to protect Serbs and other minorities, and Serb politicians for refusing to act constructively in Kosovo's politics. It is also expected to recommend that talks on Kosovo's future begin ASAP".

 

The Economist 16 Oct 04 "Macedonia: On the Edge" (48):-" with its stagnant economy and high inflation, Macedonia sometimes feels like bits left over after other Yugoslavs went their own way. It has barely 2m citizens, 62% of them Macedonians and 25% ethnic Albanians[ -who]don't much like each other.[Yet]part of...deal to end conflict between [Albanian]guerrillas and Macedonian state was promise to decentralisecountry and cut vast number of municipalities ...Problem, say[nationalist]critics, is that deal on new boundaries was gerrymandered one, done behind closed doors between the two main ruling parties, Macedonian and[ethnic-Albanian.T]his created perception that[ethnic]leaders are bargaining over fates of towns and peoples' like feudal lords' .Anger at Albanian[alleged advantage]triggered successful demands for[hot]referendum on a planned deal. Macedonia may not go back to war after the[vote],but if the country plunges into a political turmoil, it will set back hopes of becoming more prosperous[- and accepted into EUand NATO]." Economist 13 Nov 04 "Macedonia's Referendum: A Narrow Squeak" (57):- "nobody will ever know how narrow an escape from war one of Europe's most volatile states has just had.[P]eace between the Slav Macedonian majority and the ethnic-Albanian minority is on track again[and]politicians from all sides assembled...to recommit themselves to reconciliation process." Political referendum on municipalities plan did take place, but was voted on by only 26% of electorate; "not enough for quorum. So constitutional changes to devolve power to local authorities and to cut their number from 123 to 83,will go ahead." US had just catered to frustrated nationalists by announcing it would recognize the countryas "Republic of Macedonia" i.e. overcoming embarrassing Greek demand that this longtime title be refused by all, including UN, since ancient Macedonian area also included bits of Greece. Indeed, Greeks no longer fear invasion from north, and are in fact biggest investors in Macedonia. Is US now focusing on Balkans?

 

The Economist 23 Oct 04 "Malaysia: Forging A Nation" (44):-many, if not most, nations have populations that include one or more cultural minorities. Malaysia is relatively famous in this respect: its 24m people include 58% that are Malays, 24% Chinese, and 8% Indians. These groups benefit from the nation'srelatively rich economy, generating $9,000 annually per capita, and "rub along quite well. There has beenlittle outright violence since traumatic burst of rioting in 1969." Recently optimum handling of minority groups has become a major UNDP concern. Its full advice to governments is in: Human Development Report 2004: Cultural Liberty in Today's Diverse World(op.cit.). Whether in light of UNDP orders or not,Malaysia has just begun its National Service programme "a sort of state-run, civic-minded summer campdesigned to force Malaysian teenagers of all races to mix. But when formal discussion ends, and participants drift off to lunch, integration also stops. Malays, Chinese and Indians all split up into separate groups, to follow their different languages and mingle with their own kind. This sort of voluntary segregation is precisely what the National Service programme is designed to combat." Which attitude does UNDP approve? Article: "Main thing Malaysians of different races have in common...is hostility to government's attempts at integration."

 

The Economist 30 Oct 04 "Western Sahara: Where The Cause Will Not Die" (52-3):-decades-long(and chronic)history of this large area on western coast of Sahara desert is well-explained, but cannot be fully summarized. Besides providing recent past, item offers concerns about current situation and prospect of solution. Most of original Sahrawi population(100,000 at time Spain left area in 1975)still occupies camps in desolate south-west corner of neighbouring Algeria and now numbers 160,000.It forms Polisario forces, claims government-in-exile, and receives international aid. Morocco sent and has maintainedlarger number of area settlers since Spain left, to claim territory, and has often fought against Polisario.UN has maintained peacekeeping force since 1991 while trying to arrange referendum determiningindependence or pro-Moroccan vote from people. Since most/all Moroccan settlers have been excluded from vote, it has been chronically postponed. Currently Morocco says it is willing to talk more, "but onlyon basis that Moroccan sovereignty should remain unquestioned." UN special envoy has retired. Yet "Sahrawi dreams of independence have not faded" despite area's assets only of phosphate mines/fishzone. "At UN...impatience with supporting mission whose initial mandate...referendum, and which so far cost $600m."

 

The Economist 06 Nov 04 "India: The Bothersome Little People Next Door" (43-4); "India and China: Clash of the Titans" (44-5); "India and Sri Lanka: The Palk Palaver" (44):-all three bring Asian international issues and possible futures to attention by providing little-known facts. Common factor is concerns by Indiaat time when mainly(not solely)governed by relatively well-informed and flexible Congress regime. "Delhi will[soon]play host to senior visitors from Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Nepal, all of whom will have turned up with grumbles to register[with'bullying hegemon'].These days, though,..several of the once-deferential neighbours are in turmoil; India fears their instability is in danger of upsetting its own delicate political balance." Domestic situation in each of five neighbouring countries is well analysed, with important description of how each can cause problems for/in India, as newly important global power. Political relationship with Sri Lanka in main essay is added to by separate article on Indian plan "to dig a shipping canal through 19-mile(30km)stretch of shallow sea in Palk strait, which separates the two countries" .Proposal is both economically and ethnologically criticized. Essay concludes" there is growing feeling in Delhi that concerns about events along its borders are not peripheral at all." Article on Indian-Chinese relations may be politically important since both states are globally huge in terms of population(both with 1+ billion people),booming economics, and not raising issues. "Chinese officials focus on upside: shared global interests, complementary trade and salutary effects of brisk competition between friendly neighbours. While these arguments all made some sense, they do not tell whole story.In India, China can only see potential rival - if not now, then soon - for natural resources, foreign capitaland, above all, export markets.[They]are bound to compete for access to fuel and commodity supplies as their huge populations seek ever higher standards of living."

 

The Economist 13 Nov 04 "China and Central Asia: Fear of the Dragon" (46-7):-Chinese growth west - with political, economic, populace impact. China's relations with Central Asian governments mutually fine. Keyoil pipeline begun; eventually could link Caspian west Kazakhstan to thirsty Chinese coast, viaXinjiang(Econ.28 Aug).Kirgizstan and Tajikistan also keen on expanding ties. Yet all publics suspicious of revived Chinese expansionism. "Fears strengthened by growing number of Chinese in Central Asia. Officially, Kazakhstan has only 1,200-5,000 and Kirgizstan not many more than 5,000. Unofficially, estimates run to 300,000 Chinese in Kazakhstan alone, most of them traders. Even[unbordered]Uzbekistan...admits to worrying about illegal immigrants...[W]hole of ex-Soviet Central Asia has only 60m." China claimed 1.5m square kilometres USSR territory, much in Central Asia, and military clash took place; but border agreements now negotiated, despite local worry persisting andrelocation of Kazakh capital further from border. "Both Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan now nervously watching flood of ethnic Chinese moving to Xinjiang, and economic boom in that part of China. New raillinks and good roads seen by some Central Asians as potential springboard for China's expansion even further west, into Kazakhstan's vast and largely empty territory maybe 20-30 years from now. All paranoid nonsense, of course." [States besides China recall old borders.]

 

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "Aid Agencies: More Dangerous Than Ever" (48-9):-aid work is one of the most dangerous professions in the world." In past decade, more than 200 UN civilian staff...killed by'malicious acts' in 45 countries. Nearly 300 more civilians/peacekeepers taken hostage. International Committee of Red Cross(IDRC)lost 40 staff on mission over same period. Hundreds of other unarmed aid workers...killed/maimed/abducted/assaulted as tried to help people in some of world's most benighted places.[N]ew is deliberate way they are now targeted, particularly in Iraq/Afghanistan. Three UN aidworkers in [latter still under decapitation threat].Suicide attack on ICRCHQ Baghdad killed ten.[S]uicidebomb in UNHQ Baghdad killed 22...Five Medecins Sans Frontieres murdered in cold blood in Afghanistan.And so...on. Most big relief agencies...have now left Iraq. ICRC remains...without cover of red cross. UN, supposed to oversee Iraq election.,.still operating in Baghdad but with expatriate staff of just 35[300+until attack. UN flag/ICRC cross offered protection until 1990s.]Instead of accidentally killed because...in wrong place/wrong time, clearly identified aid workers began to be murdered - in Balkans/Sierra Leone/Africa Great Lakes region/ Chechnya/Colombia.[Deaths more local factors]than personal affiliation.[But i]n Afghanistan/Iraq UN/aid agencies ...deliberately hunted down. Mostly based in rich countries.,.come to beregarded by many...as part of a western plot to subjugate Muslim world-though more than half[UN/ICRC]beneficiaries Muslims. Blurring...between humanitarian/ military roles, with coalition forcesin Afghanistan/Iraq perceived handing out...food one day/dropping bombs next, has not helped." Aid people see their neutral operating space much limited, as now seen as semi-official distributors of west-government relief; not as impartial agencies meeting local need. UNSG asked for top-priority new anti-risk safety measures. "But will they prove any more effective against targeted terrorist attacks than blue flag?"

 

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "Afghanistan: After the Taliban" (46):-UN counter-narcotics agency(UNODC) reports huge rise in Afghan opium production for third year: export value $2.8b - equal to 60% of 03 GDP, and providing 95+% of heroin reaching Europe. "This year, 131,000 hectares sown with opium seed- 64% increase;...yet harvest, 4,200 tonnes of opium resin, up only 17%" ,due to bad weather/crop disease,rather than effort to destroy/dissuade. "Spending around $150m/year, Britain has formed array ofcounter-narcotics departments and law enforcement agencies, which began functioning only this year.Money also spent on persuading poppy farmers to grow alternative crops, like fruit trees or saffron.UN...advocated floriculture - hoping...bed of roses. But, in absence of almost any law enforcement[orroads to markets]such schemes hopeless...In fact opium cultivation has no financial equivalent. Last year,each hectare under cultivation yielded 45 kilos of opium, which earned farmers $283/kilo. This year, price was $92." Then argues that only US has capacity to enforce law and is only just starting to undertakeaction/funds against opium. "Persuaded Taliban using opium cash to buy arms, US waded in...Government ordered provincial governors to destroy 25% of poppy crop...Few did so...Helmand is ideal drug country. US also[financed/trained] Afghan eradication team[which]caused chaos. Farmers firedrockets...and sowed poppy fields with land mines. Yet it destroyed 1,000 hectares...and should be expanded next year...US announced $780m for drug control efforts. Britain trained top-level interdictionforce[which]destroyed over 51 tonnes of opium and 32 heroin-producing labs. Also arrested 20 mid-leveltraffickers, but...none has been convicted. Drugs squad within Afghan police force faces greater obstacles...Drug traders will surely thrive if no-one ever punished...UN plans to train judges and advocatesspecially to try traffickers.[D]istant glimmer of hope...although opium making return[in Pakistan]too." Nat Ives "Karzai Plans to Destroy Poppy Fields in 2 Years" New York Times 13 Dec 04:-reports Afghanistan's newly-confirmed president firmly undertakes to destroy country's flourishing drug production, a critical(if very difficult)aim as UN Office on Drugs and Crime officially claims nation has become source for 87% of world's opium. US military review expresses concern Afghanistan's poppy cultivation/opium production will increase and expand influence of drug magnates at all levels of government. It also claimed that, "by strengthening their ties to drug traffickers, Taliban fighters/other militants will be able to use intimidation and play on ethnic/tribal allegiances to try to undermine government. [Hence, at] narcotics conference in Kabul, Karzai called on countrymen to declare holy war against fast-growing opium trade." Carlotta Gall "Armed and Elusive, Afghan Drug Dealers Roam Free" NYT 02 Jan 05:-much detail on drug shipping across Margo desert, sprawling "across far southwestern corner of Afghanistan towards borders with Iran and Pakistan.[It] is favored route of drug traffickers taking opium, heroin and hashish produced in Afghanistan to Iran for smuggling to Turkey and Europe. They cross in armed convoys of 10-20 pickup trucks, at such high speed that police officials say they cannot catch them...Scale of problem and deadly seriousness of smugglers have been confirmed by Iranian authorities and UN. Iran has lost more than3,000 police officers battling drug smugglers in 10 years...In effort to improve Afghan border control, Iran building/equipping 25 border checkpoints for Afghan authorities along their common border, and hasdonated 100 motorbikes to Afghan police."

 

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "The United Nations: Time For A Re-Think" (Edit.15-6) "United Nations: Fighting For Survival" (25-7):-this historically important Special Report provides a careful, yet positive, summary of a realistic but strongly positive set of recommendations, agreed on by a panel appointed by Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General. The 16-member group, composed of top-level but independent worthies from all regions of globe, was instructed to submit UN-reform proposals related to Organization's effective coordination of collective security in face of unprecedented global threats. Editorial supports reforms carefully but as essential. UN" embodies collective will and wisdom of imperfect world...Report on how UN might in future better contribute to international security - mobilizing its own and world's resources, to prevent crises where possible and to deal with them more resolutely and effectively where necessary - is due...Yet the thoughtful debate such proposals deserve risks getting lost in poisonous war of words.[Those]who brush against UN as irrelevant in today's world are...dangerously short-sighted.World's most powerful country/top gun has its problems. With global interests and global reach, US is most often called on to right world's wrongs. It should have keen interest in rules-based system whichkeeps that burden to minimum and finds way for others, including UN, to share it...Agreed rules for all to play as much as possible makes strategic sense too.[Yet]system of international rules/treaties/laws is stilla hodge-podge. Some, like UN Charter, deemed universal, though...sometimes ignored.[P]rohibitions against proliferation of...weapons accepted by many but not all. Some disputes can be settled in court...but only where governments give nod...UN Security Council is where most serious disputes end.There trouble can start. UNSC not moral conscience of world. It is connection of states pursuing divergentinterests, albeit...with sense of responsibility. Where it can agree, consensus lends legitimacy toaction...Getting UNSC to mean what it says would help restore some lost credibility. Getting it to evolve collective thinking about international legal niceties in tune with evolving threats...is vital too. It has latelylearned to lean harder on genocidal dictators...Now it needs to contemplate earlier and sometimes evenforceful action by itself or others against threats...where delay[,including if too many members,]couldinvite catastrophe ...All the more reason why Annan's eminences deserve proper hearing." Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via the CFR directly. This is an expert interview with Lee Feinsteinwho" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects. Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus preliminary comments by its requester/addressee,UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from the Secretary General's part of the UN file(www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)is also available at the same address.

 

The Economist 01 Jan 05 "Endangered Languages: Babel Runs Backwards" (62-4):-this summary relatesonly to first, factual part of Special Report; remainder implies extinctions of languages might correspond to losses of ecosystems. "Languages have been coming and going for millennia, but in recent times there has been...a lot more going...Some linguists reckon that 10,000 years ago, when world had just 5m-10mpeople, they spoke perhaps 12,000 languages. [As]many started settling down to become farmers, theirlanguages too became more settled and fewer. In recent centuries,colonization/trade/industrialisation/development of nation-states/spread of...education, among other things, helped extirpate many languages...In past few decades, thanks to globalisation and bettercommunications, rate of attrition greatly accelerated, and dominant languages such asEnglish/Spanish/Chinese increasingly taking over. At present, world has about 6,800 distinct languages(and many more dialects)...Distribution of these languages is hugely uneven. General rule is that temperate zones have relatively few languages, often spoken by many, whereas hot wet zones havelots, often spoken by small numbers. Europe has only around 200; Americas about 1,000; Africa 2,400; and Asia/Pacific perhaps 3,200...Median number of speakers is mere 6,000, which means that half world's languages spoken by fewer than that. Already well over 400 of total of 6,800 languages are close to extinction, with only a few elderly speakers left...Probably 3,000 or so others are also endangered. By end of this century, number of languages in use will be much smaller than now, but disagreed on how much smaller... Pessimists reckon that in 100 years' time 90% of world's languages will be gone, and thatcouple of centuries from now world may be left with only 200 tongues...Minority languages disappear for many reasons. Could be because speakers beset by some calamity; droughts, floods, earthquakes, or[imported]epidemics/HIV/AIDS. However[some think]most languages disappear because their speakers voluntarily abandon them. Where dominant language is associated with progress and economic success, speakers of minority languages come under pressure to learn it to get on. Most obvious example[today]is English, advancing by leaps and bounds - encouraged by internet. Small number of dominant languages already rule globe. Of world's 6billion+ people, 1b speak Mandarin Chinese as first/second language.[Rest of top 11(includes speaking each as second language): English(.5b),Spanish(.4b), Hindi(.4b), Russian(.3), Arabic(.25), Bengali(.25), Portuguese(.2b), French(.2), Japanese(.1),German(.1).

 

The Economist 08 Jan 05 "The Oil Industry: Big Oil's Biggest Monster" (53-4):-Aramco is Saudi Arabia's state-run oil firm; yet this most secretive firm is suddenly opening up. This is result. "Having been widely blamed for last year's soaring oil prices, embattled giant hopes to prove it can deliver on its mostimportant promises - and survive terrorists who seem bent on destroying it. Aramco not publicly listedand avoids debt, so no need to diverge much to financial markets...Guess it produces 10m barrels per day(pbd)oil -1/8 world's consumption-with revenues in 04 $93b...Sits atop world's largest reserves by far[;] enjoys world's lowest discovery/development costs - about 50c per barrel, 1/10 or less what private sector rivals pay in Russia, North Sea, Gulf of Mexico. With at least 260b barrels of proved oil reserves left, Aramco is 20 times size...largest private sector oil firm...Saudi government sets output levels and tries to fix prices through OPEC.[Claims to have]often come to rescue with extra oil whenever...big distribution.[But]in 04 Aramco appeared troubled...that could interfere with role as swing producer.Aramco now decided to address concerns/change secretive culture...Saudi government [maybe] abandoned policy keeping lots of spare capacity[due to]demonstration of country in US since 11 Sep 01.[But]minister..insisting..still wants' fair price'of $32-34/barrel[and vows]will maintain spare capacity of1.5m-2m bpd[;]to that end...Aramco has launched expansion program to keep pace with global demand...Forecasters assume[must]double output in coming decades to meet expected growth in global demand. Yet...Saudi oil fields may already be facing technical difficulties.[Also]potential vulnerability to terrorism. Several unsuccessful attacks in 04 added...to oil price, estimated at $7-15/barrel[and]new tape from Osama bin Laden surfaced in Dec 04, threatening al-Qaeda will now specifically target Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure...Saudi Arabia...spent estimated $5.5b on security in 03 and over $8b in 04...5,000 armed men on[Aramco payroll, plus]official military and counter-intelligence forces working to protect...[I]f suicide bombers struck where Osama bin Laden now says he wants them to, oil prices could surge to $100/barrel - or even more."

 

The Economist 15 Jan 05 "Chechnya: Still Calling For Help" (49):-unlike most media articles, offersbroad/basic survey of relevant history and reasons for lack of conquest/compromise/collapse. "Over decade since Russian troops invaded rebellious republic in Dec 94, tens of thousands of people have been killed in Chechnya. Kremlin claims that war is over are plain wrong. This is a place where people are arrested by masked soldiers and not seen again; where rebels shoot police and soldiers in broad daylight; and where suspects blow themselves up to avoid arrest. Nor is horror confined to Chechnya...When President Boris Yeltsin first sent troops into Chechnya, his declared goal was to'restore constitutional order'and ensure'a normal, peaceful and calm life'...A 21-month bloodbath followed, ending in 96 with ignominious Russian retreat and de facto Chechen independence...By 98, the republic had fallen into a black hole [and in 99] Russian troops rolled back in... Chechnya may have been out of control, but renewed war was not inevitable. Several events in run-up to it remain murky...The new war made Putin. When he vowed to corner the bandits' in the shithouse'and wipe them out, he galvanised Russians who were depressed by late Yeltsin years. Moreover, many Chechens fed up with independence experiment wereready to welcome Russian troops. But...99-00 offensive proved totally indiscriminate... Some 10,000 Russian soldiers, by official figures..., have died in two wars. Chechen losses have been far worse: 50,000-200,000, out of population of 1m. War is now underground struggle, in which rebels and security forces infiltrate each other, informers are rife and the gun rules." [Description of current bitter violence - thoughmany flock to armed resistence, not just driven by Islamic ideology.]

 

The Economist 12 Feb 05"The North Caucasus: An Empire's Fraying Edge"(21-3):-introduce:"The creeping destabilisation of the north Caucasus, and what it means for the future of Russia." Republics in question (and their culturally-distinct populations): Dagestan(2.6m); Chechnya(1.1m); Ingushetia(460,000); North Ossetia(710,000); Kabardino-Balkaria(900,000); Karachayevo-Cherkessia(440,000). Chechnya's globally-publicized and bloody violence is unfortunately matched by a serious variety of problems throughout the region. Today Chechnya concern is not whether its conflict will spread,"but where the spreading will end... Even by Russian standards, beautiful but benighted region's difficulties extreme. But they are extreme versions of problems that afflict[whole]country[:] poverty/fissiparousness/poor governance. [E]xplosive tendency of north Caucasus may ultimately threaten integrity of whole."Describes serious atmospherein region at some length."Slim improvements in grim Chechnya may help explain some deterioration in neighbouring republics...But region's problems have two other profound causes: its messy history, andchronic failure of government. Devilishly complex ethnic divisions within/between republics; ancient but persistent grudges; Babel of languages; clan-based sub-rivalries; war with Russia: such is historical inheritance of north Caucasus...During WWII, Stalin ordered wholesale deportation of four north CaucasianMuslim nations, along with several others, at enormous cost in lives...To live with this legacy...region needs strong, independent leaders. Instead it has communist relics/ruling clans that monopolise local industry...Corruption is rampant. [B]ig companies scared to invest; young people moving away and labour pool isdrying up. [R]egion is...Russia's poorest. Local rulers...unable to cope with shocks...[B]iggest scandal[after Beslan slaughter]is that nothing appears to have changed to prevent another attack...Nostalgia for Soviet stability is more prevalent than longing for democracy. [L]ocal administrations are cripplingly dependent on subsidies from Moscow...Many of the region's problems have nothing to do with either religion or ethnicity. Big risk is simply that more and more north Caucasus may slip into lawlessness and drift out of Moscow's orbit...Russia is already its own empire. Possibility that it may one day crumble...is Putin's central fear. Neglect of north Caucasus may eventually lead to that fear's realisation."

 

The Economist 12 Feb 05"The Drug 'War'in Latin America: Next Steps in Colombia"(Edit.11);"Battles Won, a War Still Lost"(35-6):-issue reports on two basically different ways of defending human beings/ societies against dangerous potential of drugs. Editorial: "[I]n 2000[US] launched ambitious program of mainly military aid called Plan Colombia...Bush proposes to keep aid to Colombia largely unchanged in 2005-06, at some $742m. Before this becomes a permanent commitment, US and Colombians should look carefully at its value... [A]s always in war on drugs, victories are illusory. Cocaine is as cheap as ever.Drug prohibition in rich countries continues to fail - at huge cost for Latin American democracies, whose battle to enforce rule of law is contested by powerful drug mobs. In five years, Plan Colombia has offered no evidence to weaken The Economist's conviction that cocaine should be legalised (though its use, like that of tobacco, should be discouraged)"."In 2004, contractors working for US sprayed herbicide on 136,000 [Colombian]hectares of coca, similar amount to previous year. In 2004, almost 150 tonnes of cocaine seized in country, third more than 2003, while 1,900 cocaine labs were destroyed...166 Colombians [extradited] to face drug charges...in US...Yet to many..,Andean drug trade seems as effective/dangerous as ever. Most telling evidence is price of cocaine.[I]n US a gram of cocaine wholesaled for $38 in 2003, down from $48 in 2000...In Britain, cocaine is cheaper than ever.[C]onsumption is broadly flat in North America, according to UN, but rising in Europe.,.Brazil, Mexico and Central America. [One] explanation is that coca has spread to new areas, some undetected, and yields/productivity are rising."Drugs in Canada: Under the Needle"(36-7):-Canada is groping towards a distinctive approach to drugs, one that focuses on harm reduction rather than the repression favoured by US. North America's first trial of heroin maintenance -giving addicts free heroin on condition that accept treatment - [just]got under way[but]will[soon]expand. [Site]curbing disease and deaths among addicts...All will get help with health/housing/job training...More broadly, [Canada]will test whether heroin maintenance, used in Switzerland/Netherlands, will work in North America. Hope is that if hard-core addicts no longer have to commit crimes to fund habits,...more likely to become productive citizens/leave drugs behind...Researchers reckon heroin maintenance...cheaper."

 

The Economist 19 Feb 05"Anti-Americanism: The View From Abroad"(24-6):-Special Report just prior toUS President George Bush's politically important visit to Europe argues that he "will encounter a more complex animosity than is often portrayed when he ventures abroad". It reports that Pew Research Centerconcluded "'Anti-Americanism is deeper and broader now than at any time in modern history'. But though it spans the globe, the phenomenon is not everywhere the same. It mutates according to local conditions, and it is seldom straightforward. No wonder. Most people's feelings about US are complicated... It is easy to be for some[US aims]and against others, and some may wax or wane in importance according to time, circumstance, propaganda or wishful thinking. So it should be no surprise that some people can hold two apparently contradictory views of US at once." SR then describes US views of selected countries/groupsin following order: France, Iran, Muslim world(first Indonesia, then Arabs), Greece, Spain, European far left and far right, Latin America, Congo, Angola, Philippines. Then report "suggests that intensity of [experience with US] may be the decisive factor in the creation of lasting anti-Americanism. [Canada is listed as unusual country that "is perpetually critical of US" despite having"never(sic) suffered anything worse" than US"cultural imperialism, ignoration and disdain". Such a position is also clearly ignorant of Canadian experience. Two bloody miltary invasions to conquer us took place in 1775 and 1812-14, plus other invasion threats; the(vast?)majority of immigrants into Canada entered specifically to avoid or escape US; and Canada fought bloodily in WWs I and II for three years each time before US entered, even though we (both?) felt North America was also threatened.] Specific bad historical experiences for other countries are listed briefly. "Vigour of anti-American feeling varies strongly even among peoples who, to the casual observer, seem to have no good reason for their differing reactions... Certainly, hostility to US is often mitigated by feelings of friendship and gratitude... A US diaspora may also have a mollifyingeffect in the old country... This background of ties, aspirations and shared values means that in some places anti-Americanism can be dissipated quite quickly with a visit...or some other gesture... In other places, though, it would take much more to change attitudes... In some places it may well be impossible for US to do very much." In final section, the strong views about recent Bush-initiated actions and policies are summarized - mainly the negative ones - with their strong effects on past US role as sample.Anne Applebaum"In Search of Pro-Americanism"Foreign Policy No.149(Jul/Aug 05):-article is summarized by FP: "There has never been a more popular time to be anti-American. From Beijing to Berlin, from Sydney to Sao Paulo, US' s detractors have become legion. But not everyone has chosen to get on the anti-American bandwagon. Where - and among whom - is US still admired, and why? Meet the pro-Americans." Steven Kull"It's Lonely at the Top"Foreign Policy No.149(Jul/Aug 05):-reports that "A new poll of nearly 24,000 citizens from 23 countries, conducted by international polling firm Globe-Scan and the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the Univ of Maryland, suggests that the tectonic plates of world opinion are shifting. People around the world are not only turning away from the US; they are starting to embrace the leadership of other major powers." Poll asked leading countries who is having a mainly positive or negative influence in the world among: China, France, Russia, Britain, US. Results are shown in a chart that displays percentage breakdowns from each of the five plus Brazil, Canada, India and South Africa.

 

The Economist 26 Feb 05"China, Japan and US: Keeping Their Balance"(39-40):-One of China's worriesis "Japan's increasingly unapologetic flexing of its diplomatic muscle and its greater readiness to seeits armed forces co-operate more closely with US, both around the region...and further afield... Anotherof China's worries is that US and Japan are particularly seeking to constrain China's growing influence in Asia and beyond. [Yet] far from attempting to constrain China, some in the region have worried thatUS has recently allowed it too much room for manoeuvre [by reducing US troop numbers in Asia. They] are keen for US to continue playing a balancing role to keep old rivalries between China, Japan, Russia and others in check... Is there room for so many big powers in Asia? Japan and China are natural rivalsfor regional leadership, but until lately China seemed to be winning.... What China has sometimes called its' peaceful rise'... has been causing concern. Will stronger China throw its weight about?... US and others are keen to keep China's influence in proportion, if not in check. In process, US has improved relationswith India. Japan is developing military-to-military ties with Russia and... clinching an oil pipeline deal at China's expense. Meanwhile,US upgraded security ties with Mongolia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines.When Indian Ocean tsunami struck, US formed... coalition with India, Japan, Australia [ - and not China.] But China most worried about Japan [,which] moving rapidly to upgrade its security alliance with US...Japan has also started to cut back assistance to China, and has lobbied hard for EU not to lift arms embargo on the country. All this for sake of keeping a balance, Japan would argue... -but an uneasy one."

The Economist 19 Mar 05"Reforming the Intelligence Services: The Spy Game"(Edit.13);"America's[US] Intelligence Reforms: Can Spies Be Made Better?"(29-31); "Britain's Intelligence Services: Cats' Eyes In the Dark"(32-4):-Editorial concludes:"In both Britain and US, the spies remain on watch. Current trends -terrorism and proliferation - have made their work both more important and much harder. Meanwhile, comforting idea that technology would make spying more of a high-tech science was blown apart by 11 Sep and Iraq fiasco; it is now a more risky, more human affair where real eyes and ears matter. So farspooks have been given much of what wanting: more money/more power/relatively gentle reorganisation.Now need to prove their worth." Item on US intelligence reforms:"Truth is, no one knows how the reforms will proceed. [John Negraponte, first director of national intelligence (DNI)] may gain a modicum of controlover the agencies. At best, he may ensure that the information channels opened within and between theagencies after the hijack attacks stay open. Yet, on his own at least, he will not be able to fix the agencies' most grievous problems, highlighted by their performance on Iraq... Further organizational reform would not eliminate problem. US spies do not necessarily need shifting; a good few need sacking." Item onBritish intelligence reform: "Can challenging and questioning be made part of the spy culture?... Britain'sintelligence services have been feeling their limitations lately. The [11 Sep 05 terrorist attacks and the invasion of Iraq] have forced a rethink in the way things are done - and have led to the most substantial reshaping of the intelligence community since 1946-48... Terrorist-related intelligence... now has to bepassed to Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre(JTAC). [Post-Iraq,] the new system is intended to givetechnical specialists more weight, to engender greater scepticism about the material gathered, and to licence every member of the British intelligence community, when necessary, to speak truth to power".

 

The Economist 26 Mar 05"The United Nations: Kofi Annan's Reform Plan"(Edit.12); "America[US] and the United Nations: Love At Second Sight"(31):-Editorial reports:"Some good ideas, but no revolution in therunning of the world"... "Some of Annan's reforms are designed expressly to address [chronic] failings. Possible remedies include adding new permanent members to UN Security Council [e.g.Germany, Japan, Brazil, India] to make it more representative, and making the rules on using force more flexible, so thatattack does not have to be under way or imminent before self-defence can be invoked; UNSC could alsorespond to'latent'threats...These ideas have been put together in good faith by experienced diplomats. They deserve a hearing. And yet they do not - indeed cannot - solve underlying problem... It is absence of [agreed] will, not some legal quibble, that is holding [UNSC]back now. None of this means Annan's ideas ought to be rejected, or that UN is not worth improving." Item on US views:"Bush's people seem to like: new intergovernmental peace-building commission;...replacement of Human Rights Commission by smaller, elected Human Rights Council; agreed definition of terrorism;... attempt to confirm a nation's right to launch'pre-emptive'strike in face of 'imminent'threat... Most contentious part of Annan's package...concerns UNSC [expanded] from 15 to 24. [Even former Republican critic wants]'"credible UN" because'US cannot be world's sole saviour. It needs to share its burden'".Economist 06 Aug 05"America's New UN Envoy: Lethal Injection, Or Healthy Tonic?"(24-5):-US president "bypasses the Senate to send John Bolton to the UN [,which] is unlikely to be the same again. Ignoring fierce opposition from civil liberties groups, Democrats and even some Republicans, Bush has chosen to bypass normal Senate confirmation procedures to appoint... outspoken advocate of US global hegemony... In past, Bolton seemed to treat UN with something less than full respect... [He has spoken for] "those neo-cons who regard UN as costly, corrupt, anachronistic impediment to the free exercise of US power...But [some UN forces] believe choice of such outspoken, hard-driving heavyweight ...could actually provide the 'kick up the pants' UN needs. [Appointment]could also help bring some of UN's most ferocious critics behind[its Rice-supported] reforms. [Rice aide] sounded astonishingly supportive of UN, praising its many achievements in bringing economic development, security and peace to world, and pledging US backing for most [UNSG] Annan's proposed reforms, to be endorsed... at UN summit...'Therefore vital... US lead UN, that we have faith in UN,pay our dues, promote reform and contribute to strengthen UN for all the many challenges ahead. [Bolton]role will be more to execute policy than to formulate it.... He could be rather good at that."

 

The Economist 26 Mar 05"China and Japan: So Hard To Be Friends"(23-5):-Special Report summarized:"China and Japan increasingly inter-linked-commercially. But their age-old political animus is reviving too". Highlights:"[China is]Japan's biggest trading partner. Japan was China's biggest partner in 3 of last 4 years. Trade rows... virtually disappeared. Economies increasingly integrated. [Both] in effort to launch East Asian Community, and share interest in preventing dollar from declining rapidly. Also take part in broader regional co-operation. Until recently..wonders if China and Japan might in future make common cause in global affairs. Defence ministries... held cordial meetings..; Chinese leaders spoke admiringly ofJapan as economic model.[Both] collaborators in... effort to persuade North Korea to relinquish nuclearweapons. Yet recently a lot more evidence for opposite; namely that tensions rising again between two of 20th century's bitterest rivals... Japan deliberately made its position on Taiwan less ambiguous bydeclaring, with US ally, Taiwan is mutual security concern. Took Japan symbolic step further past itsconstitutional restrictions. [In defence program, Japan] described China as source of 'concern', [reinforced]by China's own announcement of 12.6% rise in official defence spending... Top-level meetingshave been brief affairs... Apparent reason: events of 70 years ago when Japan invaded China, and Japan's unwillingness to show contrition about them in manner demanded by China... Should outsidersbe worried...or comforted? Both countries have become natural rivals for primacy in region...China's rise reinforced old worries.:.hunger for natural resources.;.ability to modernise armed forces...Japan showslittle commercial nervousness [since] two economies strikingly complementary.:.only 20% of China's exports in categories that compete with Japanese ones [and its] ultra-cheap labour is likely for some time to tilt firms towards labour-intensive processes... Yet while... complementary in output, clearly competitors for resources - China overtook Japan as world's second-largest importer of oil [and disputes sea-bed resource sites between them. A]t issue may be... whole future power balance in Asia... [Tense relationsmay also] stem both from nasty history of 20th century and from expectations of concerns about 21st... In China and Japan these days opinion towards each other quite varied [and] on both sides striking.[Japanese PM visits to war shrine including WWII criminals, and use of school textbooks lacking sincere critique of invasion/mistreatment of China, draw anti-Japanese emotions, maintained by Chinese school textbooks.].. Tensions between two great powers ...probably cannot be defused altogether as long as...political systems remain so different ... Only once China stops trying to explore how far it can go, and instead decides to seek a rapprochment with its ancient rival, is the tension likely to ease."

 

The Economist 09 Apr 05"The International Criminal Court: Lengthening the Arm of Global Law"(38):-item explains "Consequences of referring Darfur to ICC... UN-appointed commission 'strongly recommended'referral of 'heinous' crimes in Darfur to ICC[, and] UNSC has finally agreed to act, despite US hostility to ICC. Sealed list of 51 prime suspects, drawn up by commission and including names of Sudanese officials, members of state-sponsored militias and Darfuri rebels, handed to ICC's chief prosecutor [who] plans to start immediately to investigate two -year conflict... Three ways ICC can launch investigation. (1) Country where war crimes [may] have taken place can ask ICC to look into them. (2) ICC chief prosecutor can take initiative so long as alleged crimes took place in one of 98 countries which ratified [ICC] treaty. (3) UNSC can make referral, regardless of where crimes took place... If ICC deems Sudan's investigations to be bogus... it will dismiss Sudanese challenge and unleash its prosecutors... US had wanted a blanket immunity from ICC prosecution. But this denied by the nine UNSC members... signed up to ICC...[N]ext time[similar evil], US will find it harder to explain why ICC should not go after it".

 

The Economist 16 Apr 05"China, Japan and the UN: A Collision In East Asia"(Edit.13-4); "China and Japan: The Genie Escapes"(36-7):-Editorial argument is:"There should be no enlarged Security Council[UNSC] without Japan... [Impression]proposals to reform UN and change...UNSC were just... for diplomats [; but anti-Japan demonstrations in China] mark rude awakening. All UNSC's permanent five -China, France, Russia, UK and US- guard their seats at top table jealously and wary about prospect of this honour being diluted. Some, it is now plain, are willing to whip up emotions of their people to resist unwantednewcomers. When it comes to China and Japan, those emotions still remarkably raw...Mighty neighbours are competing for natural resources and squabbling over sovereignty of tiny islands... China endlessly drags up...view Japan has never apologised properly for brutal behaviour in China during WWII/before. [Now] China is on the way to becoming economic superpower... And Japan, which still has world'ssecond-largest economy, is no longer willing to be a second-class citizen in diplomacy [and] believes itdeserves permanent seat in any enlarged UNSC...[I]t is right. UN's current[1945] system gives permanent seats, and vetoes, to five countries and condemns everyone else, no matter how regionally powerful or active in international security, to occasional two-year term. If permanent membership of UNSC is to beenlarged, [Japan] natural candidate by dint of population standing and economic power... What is absolutely plain is that to add [Germany,]India, Brazil, Nigeria,South Africa or Egypt but to exclude Japan would not only constitute an egregious insult to Japanese but also make nonsense of whole exercise. In which case,should exercise be abandoned? .. What a pity that would be. UN system will never be perfect, but it can be improved to reflect world more as it is today, not as it was... more than half a century ago. Japanese belong in an enlarged UNSC - not least so Chinese come to understand they cannot have everything their way in East Asia's future".Other item argues:"China's anti-Japan protesters are a big problem for bothcountries...[D]emonstrations in several Chinese cities by thousands of protesters, some of whom smashed windows of Japanese shops/restaurants and threw stones at Japanese diplomatic buildings...Chinese leadersprobably found it scary too...[W]here public protest usually quickly suppressed, anti-Japanese sentiment...hard for authorities to handle... Animosity towards Japan regarded as hallmark of a patriot. [P]rotestsbegan as show of opposition... to Japan's campaign for a permanent seat on UNSC. They were fuelled by Japanese approv[al of] school textbook... that plays down extent of [WWII] atrocities... Activists sayprotests unauthorised [,hence illegal, yet no Beijing arrests reported]. FM spokesman said up to Japan to 'reflect carefully'on how to prevent 'situation getting out of control'... China's government worriesthat if seen too weak towards Japan, or cracks down too hard, protesters could turn against party".

 

The Economist 16 Apr 05 Special Report:"Nepal: Himalayan Horrors"(21-3):-"Nepal, sandwiched between [China and India], continues its slide into chaos". Its strategic location - along the world's greatest mountain range and splitting the two most populous states, both liable to become superpowers - meansspecial Nepalese instability could become a global issue. Bulk of Special Report provides authoritative but discouraging information about Nepal's recent history and its many serious political, economic, and security problems. Summary of its final section: "Sooner or later, it seems likely the king will have to climb down. Already most politicians detained during the [king's] coup... have been freed. And... Nepal agreedto accept human-rights monitors from UN. Move was dismissed by some activists as intended to avoid condemnation [but] it does at least give a chance to test claims made by army and [Maoist rebels] alike, that they want to respect human rights. It also sets precedent for limited foreign intervention, which Nepaldesperately needs. Aim of foreign governments is to persuade king to restore power to the parties andassume largely ceremonial role so that 'constitutional forces' united against Maoist foe... Such platformneeds to include strategy for engaging Maoists in talks. Few believe rebels can achieve a military victoryeither... They say want to join mainstream politics, but demanding 'constituent assembly'to discuss new, republican, constitution. Optimists argue they, too, in trouble: loathed, feared, and with a leadership boasting no spectacular successes to appease its self-sacrificing cadres. But to end war, republic might come to seem fair price to pay. King...has gambled with the monarchy itself". Economist 26 Nov 05"Nepal: Three Into Two"(52):-although there have been many - and discouraging - media reports on Nepal's chronic problems since mid-Apr 05, this one offers possibly-republican news. Officially described as: "A novelty for King Gyanendra: a united opposition", it announces that "two of the three sides - theMaoist insurgents and the mainstream political parties - announced 22 Nov they were ganging up onthe monarchy. King.., who seized absolute power in Feb, is as isolated at home as he is unpopular with Nepal's main allies abroad. But he is still solidly in charge [controlling both army and government].Agreement...calls for a boycott of elections king has called for next year, and formation of a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution... Foreign governments - especially India's - encouraged by accord".Economist 29 Apr 06"Nepal: Knights and Pawns Check King"(44):-"People power wins in Nepal - for themoment... Nepal's army finally called time on King Gyanendra's disastrous attempt at absolutism. Facedwith the prospect of either mowing down unarmed demonstrators or seeing palace stormed, the generals went to the opposition and asked them to form a government. [I]t was almost certainly army that broughtthe news to Nepal's deluded sovereign that the game was up. [H]e restored the parliament that had beendissolved four years ago [and] implicitly accepted the opposition's policy of securing peace with Maoist rebels by rewriting the constitution... For the first time in many years, outlook for Nepal seems hopeful...Maoist ceasefire was announced on 27 Apr, for three months to begin with... after a decade-long civil warthat cost some 13,000 lives... [D]ynasty has nothing to offer and [king], man of blood, may have to go".

 

The Economist 16 Apr 05"China and India: Too Early To Tell"(37):-Article's own summary: "A much-vaunted Sino-Indian 'strategic partnership'is only in its infancy". Extracts: China's PM Wen Jiabao visiting India's PM Manmohan Singh "were probably [both] looking well into future...Cooperation between Asia's giants, accounting for 38% of world's population, may indeed change the world and amount to 'strategic partnership'they have proclaimed... Chief reason for euphoria was accord covering territorial disputes over which the two countries fought war in 1962 and which have soured relations ever since... This week,neighbours moved from an agreement to disagree about border, to an agreement to try to agree. It accepts principle of 'package settlement', covering all sectors - code for what has long seemed the only feasible solution: something not far from status quo. [R]epresentatives consult[ing]'in an earnest manner'... does mark an effort to establish strategic trust. [While reports that] China had backed India's bid for permanent seat on UNSC.,. joint statement...attached 'great importance to status of India in international affairs' ... Other pillar of putative new partnership is economic. [F]ashionable point [was] that, with Indian software as the score and Chinese hardware as the instrument, there is beautiful economic music to be made... Still huge untapped potential in bilateral trade, investment and tourism [but agreement] toconsider 'regional trading arrangement'...Indian fears of economic invasion persist, even as the military threat has faded. Free bilateral trade may be as distant as true strategic partnership".

 

The Economist 30 Apr 05"Arab Democracy: Should the West Always Be Worried If Islamists Win Elections?"(41-2):-item summed:"In Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, Islamists seem to be gaining ground. Many want the chance to prove they are real democrats". Extracts: "Saudi leader could warn that if US truly wants Arabs to democratise as a foil to extremism, it must expect results that may not be entirely to its liking. Message not new... But political strength of Islamism has grown increasingly plain, not only in Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, religious parties strongest to have emerged among both Sunnis and Shias. When Palestinians vote this summer, Islamic Resistance Movement, better known as Hamas, and Islamic Jihad are both expected to make gains against secular parties. Muslim Brotherhood, oldest of Islamist parties, remains most credible opposition group in Egypt and Jordan. It is even making a slow comebackin Syria, where nearly hounded to extinction during 1980s. In Morocco, two Islamist parties, one 'loyalist'regarding monarchy, the other dissident, have made headway against once dominant socialists and liberals.What unites these groups is not simply commitment to defend Islamist values. [M]any emerging forcesare relatively progressive. They gained from Arab public's frustration with their own governments' failureto deliver better living standards as well as from anger at perceived western belligerance against Islam. But they have also largely adopted 'western'values, such as democracy/constitutional limits to executive power.[P]opular preachers [in Saudi Arabia] talk of the rulers' responsibilities towards their people. [M]any winning Islamist candidates were... technocrats with... charitable public service. While conservative onsuch prickly issues as women's rights, their emphasis is more on keeping an Islamist framework than on rigid enforcement of traditional values... Modernising currents in Islamism have evolved far more slowly in Saud Arabia than elsewhere. Moroccan Islamists have broadly endorsed recent government initiatives to expand women's rights. Platform of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood calls for parliamentary rule,separation of powers, and protection of minorities... Lebanon's Hizbullah has often adopted more progressive stands on social and religious issues than its rival... Shia party, Amal. Iraq's top Shia clericSistani preaches against both sectarianism and the notion of Iranian-style clerical rule... But another factor may prompt Arabs to express newfound freedoms in more moderate ways. Islamist parties havelong blamed western powers for blocking their progress, charging they have actively colluded with oppressive Arab governments out of fear of political Islam... Increasingly, in... western capitals, opiniongaining ground that any solid, popularly elected government is better than shaky autocratic client".

 

The Economist 07 May 05"Russia and the West: Victory Day Remembered - But Parades in Moscow Should Not Stop the West Confronting Russian Autocracy"(Edit.10):-"Not surprising that history of so cataclysmic an event as WWII should still cast a shadow everywhere today. But at least in most countries of Europe [as well as in Australia, Canada, NZ and USA], people have come to terms with, and in many ways moved beyond, that history - something EU by its very existence seeks to symbolise. Germany hasfully admitted the sins of its past.[See: "Germans and Jews: Uncertain Normality - Some Forgiving, Not Much Forgetting"(48).] Even Japan, slow as it is to accept its faults [to particular annoyance of China and Korea], has repeatedly apologised for its wartime record. The exception... is Russia. Its failure to come clean about the iniquities of its own past is part of a wider story that helps to explain why post-Soviet Russia remains so prickly and troubling. [Russia's President Vladimir] Putin calls himself a democrat. Yethe recently declared collapse of Soviet Union was greatest geo-political catastrophe of 20th century... Hardly uncommon for nations to glorify their wartime histories,... and perhaps it is forgivable. But in the memory of too many Russians, a justified pride in having vanquished Hitler is mingled with a misplacednostalgia for the days of 'greatness' (and terror) under Stalin's own dictatorship. [See: "Victory Day, 60 Years On: The Uses and Abuses of History - Russia's Complicated Attitude to the Best and Worst of Times"(45-6).] Tearing-down of iron curtain and dissolution of Soviet Union achieved remarkably peacefully.Moscow harrumphed when former vassals joined NATO and then EU, but it did not seek actively to stopthem. Nor was Putin able... to prevent spread of 'democratic revolutions' ... But Russians still interfering, politically and militarily, in string of neighbouring countries that were once under Soviet control. Still notsigned border treaties with two of three Baltic countries. [See: "Baltic Borders and the War: Frontier Justice - Why Russia's Borders With the Baltic Countries Remain Disputed"(46).] To neighbours, Putin's Russia looks dangerous - even if, to West in general, weakened Russia is far from threat it was in cold-war days... Russia's failure fully to acknowledge its past is more than case of post-imperial twitching in itsnear-abroad. It is also part and parcel of Putin's shift from liberal democracy towards authoritarianism... Independent media have been muzzled, elections rigged and any hints of opposition neutered, This might seem matter primarily for Russians to fret over, but it also troubles neighbours that have too often suffered from Russian attention. [See: "Charlemagne: Taking On the Bear - Russia's Awkward Position in Europe's Jigshaw"(50).] Foreign investors are worried too. Government... has demonstrated with awful clarity bothlack of any independent rule of law and arbitrariness of Russian state's intervention in business. To westernEuropeans , increasingly reliant on Russia for energy, this too should be matter of great concern. [See; Op.Cit summary: "Russian Oil: King Solomon's Pipes - The Benefits of Keeping Japan and China Guessing"(59-60).] Russia has its pride and special sensitivities. But countries of West would be doing both themselves and Russian people favour by speaking firmly, with one voice, on human rights,democracy, rule of law and brutal war in [Caucasus]. Should urge Putin to confront and transcend the dictatorship of memory by normalising Russia's borders...and to abandon any atavistic dreams of empire".

 

The Economist 28 May 05"Democracy in the Middle East: Now Please Vacate Your Thrones"(Edit.16):-thisEditorial offers a strong but persuasive explanation as to "Why George Bush's freedom talk falls flat in some Arab circles". It first notes that when the US President and representatives say they are in favour of democracy in the region, they are often strongly criticized - e.g. by Amr Moussa, secretary-general of the Arab League - for not giving priority to Palestine. Moussa is right to claim the"Palestinian cause resonates throughout the Arab world. But nonsense to say Arabs want to shelve their own democratic hopes until Palestine resolved". Many note how democracy has strengthened Israel, how both Iraq andPalestinian territories have held elections, and how "people power" has pushed Syrian troops out of Lebanon. Indeed,"most Arabs say in polls that they would like democracy for themselves. If Bush wants democracy for Arabs,.. why no meeting of minds? Part of answer is indeed Palestine... Arabs blame Bushfor helping Israel to thwart Palestinian self-determination, for propping up local dictators and other authoritarians, and for having invaded Iraq [for oil or Zionism]". While some is rubbish/unfair, it's widely believed. In addition, "last thing [Arab] leaders want is to lose power by introducing the democracy US now demands of them. US and Arab allies are therefore locked in an almost surreal dialogue. [Yet Bush]now seems a true believer. In one blunt speech,.. he has said US made a mistake in having spent 60 years excusing the lack of freedom in the Middle East. The Arab authorities... can only feel chilled".

 

The Economist 11 Jun 05"UN Security Council Reform: Curb Your Enthusiasm"(30):-on gloomy prospect of the key body's needed membership update:"A useful proposal and US rebuff". Highlights:"Reform of UNSC [just] advanced a longish step forward... Four countries with most hope of winning new permanent seats - Japan, Germany, India, Brazil - agreed to put off discussion of veto rights... for another 15 years at least... US is unenthusiastic [since] thinks expansion of UNSC should come a definite second to other reforms, such as streamlining UN bureaucracy... Many [members] still doubt UNSC can ever be reformed. [It] has evaded any attempt at real reform. Too many vested interests/national rivalries have been at stake. The G4, as they are known, are proposing that existing 15-member council of five veto-wielding permanent members (US, Russia, Britain, China, France - known as P5) and 10 non-permanent members should be expanded to 25. First six new permanent members would be added, then four non-permanentones, with special attention paid to including countries from Africa and Latin America. [G4] now agree thatnew permanent members' 'right of veto'would not be exercised, at least until whole veto question had beenexamined by UNGA 15 years after planned reforms. [As G4 plan] involves amendment of UN Charter, itrequires approval of at least two-thirds of member states. Countries interested in obtaining a permanent seat would then be asked to submit their candidacies to a vote by a secret ballot of members... Each [of G4] has its own fierce opponent(s). Pakistan cannot abide idea of India getting permanent status; China isappalled that Japan, its old enemy, might join it at top table; jealous neighbours oppose Brazil, already Latin America's most powerful nation; Italy, always feeling left in the cold by Europe's 'big three', has conducted vigorous campaign against Germany. None of these opponents, on their own, could block selection. ButUS attitude will be critical. At present, US is officially supporting only candidacy of Japan".

 

The Economist 16 Jul 05"In Europe's Midst"(Edit.13-4):-"Four young British Muslims became zealots, and the zealots became suicide-bombers.";"Muslim Extremism in Europe: The Enemy Within" (Special Report24-6);-"What turns a man into a terrorist, and what can be done about it?";US:"Fighting Terrorism: Imagining Something Much Worse Than London"(27-8):-"The unwieldy Department of Homeland Securityhas a timely reorganisation, aimed at focusing on most dangerous threats."; "Jihadists in the Middle East: Cradle of War, School of Jihad"(41-2):-"Al-Qaeda's allies turned Iraq into new Afghanistan.";"Israel's Suicide-Bombing: Ploughing on Regardless"(42):-"Suicide-bombers try to derail the Gaza pullout.";"Italy and Terrorism: The Next Target?"(44-5):-"Terrorism is 'knocking at Italy's door, says the interior minister. Most Italians need no persuading."; "London: After the Bombs"(52-3):-"How four suicide attacks by British citizens have changed Britain."; "Ethnic Relations: One Step Back"(53):-"Attacks in London will test analready-embattled group."; "Terrorism Insurance: Change of Calculation"(71):-"The bombings in Londonmay affect a US debate.":-after the serious suicide-bomber explosions of 07 Jul in London, Economisteither collected from professionals, or at least presented in valuable forms, a vast and expert variety of related - and serious - information in the nine good articles listed here. Following each title, their official summaries are offered, since they are both clear and succinct. I particularly stress the Special Report, not because it is critical of Muslims/Islamic doctrine (it isn't), but since it describes how and why young men can become mass killers. (Young) people with twisted/frustrated attitudes can gain/use mass weapons relatively easily in virtually any state on earth and regardless of their religions. (My concern about gradual but inherent global trends of this sort, started this future-looking bibliography over ten years ago...)

 

The Economist 23 Jul 05"Myanmar: How To Save It"(Edit.12); Myanmar: The Mess That the Army Has Made"(23-5):-Special Report offers a thoughtful account of how "Brutality and neglect by Myanmar's military regime have created a pariah state with a wretched and desperate people...Country is stuck in such a rut that the prospect of a foreign invasion is a fond hope, not a fear... Indeed, the junta looks more entrenched than at any point in the 17 years since it took power[, while] the life of ordinary Burmese is becoming ever more miserable... [When elections] were held in 1990, the junta refused to honour the result, a landslidewin for National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Instead, the generals simply locked up their political opponents and continued as a military dictatorship... In 2003, the [junta, calling itself the State Peace and Development Council or] SPDC unveiled a seven-point 'road map'to democracy. But the road, predictably, is long and winding... Instead, [SPDC] appears to be digging in, literally: the army is shifting its headquarters to a series of underground bunkers in... remote, hilly region of central Myanmar".Editorial concludes"it would not hurt to spell out exactly what steps outsiders would like generals to take,how quickly they should be taken, and what consequences of each stage of compliance or defiance would be [via UNSC?]. For example, foreigners might agree to restore full diplomatic relations if junta releasedMiss Suu Kyi. Next, they could trade big infusion of aid for, say, an effective ceasefire in various war-torn corners of the country. Then they could offer to drop sanctions, should junta ever cut some sort of power-sharing deal with its opponents... None of these steps would be irreversible, and there[could]be plenty ofother penalties.Even Miss Suu Kyi herself has already conceded that an absolutist approach not practical."

 

The Economist 23 Jul 05"Counter-Terrorism in Europe: The Fight Within"(45-6):-"In fits and starts,European countries are learning to co-operate more closely, and to share intelligence, in battle against terrorism... EU members made copious promises to co-operate in fight against terror. An 'action plan', including 150 separate measures, was launched in [Jun 04]. Some two-thirds of these have been translated into political decisions...'Situation centre'in Brussels, where EU members share intelligence assessments, has begun looking at domestic threats as well as external ones... European Commissionproposed more measures, including making explosives more easily traceable and restricting sales of farmfertiliser. EU's embryonic law-enforcement institutions - Europol police agency, and Eurojust, through which prosecutors co-operate - are heavily engaged in anti-terrorism work, building relations with their much bigger brothers in US... Important decisions will come this autumn, such as making personal data more easily available to investigators while also introducing an EU-wide system of data protection. Treading delicately in sensitive territory, the commission is preparing a paper on 'radicalisation'- politelanguage for discontent among young Muslims that prompts a few to become terrorists. But officials stress this will describe problem, not prescribe solutions; only national governments can do that. Nor is there any guarantee that common threats will translate into common action... At everyday level, barriersto co-operation are rarely insuperable... Individual acts of co-operation between European countries areone thing. Longer-term efforts to turn counter-terrorism into a pan-European activity are something else...Moreover, problems are not just legal and technical, but political and ethical. In all European countries,hard questions have been posed by the twin challenges of terrorism and Muslim disaffection."

 

The Economist 23 Jul 05"India and America: Now We Are Six"(Edit.13); "India and America: Together At Last"(37-8):-Both relate to the visit of India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Washington, andselective but significant improvement of relations. Latter description summarized:"US adds substance to its professions of friendship for India";and comments:"Change in US attitude reflects both India's emergence as economic force to be reckoned with, and the rise of neighbouring China. India's economy is only about 40% the size of China's, but its fast growth and young population mean that its global role is increasing, not least because of its thriving information-technology and outsourcing industries".Editorial is concerned: "Has US just destroyed the non-proliferation treaty(NPT), set up 1968 to halt spread of nuclear weapons? [India's PM] walked off with... access to US civilian nuclear know-how and nuclear fuel, despite fact that India has been a declared holder of nuclear weapons since 1998. India not signatory to NPT, and not bound by its provisions, which restrict right to possess nuclear weapons to five original nuclear powers...and impose extensive safeguards on civilian nuclear programs of other member states. But even so, it has always been a tenet of US foreign policy, enshrined in law, that only countries that areNPT members should share in benefits of US civilian nuclear expertise. Being able to buy US reactor components and fuel rods was supposed to be specific reward for renouncing nuclear weapons, not favour to be handed out at will... Danger now:...other friendly countries that considered acquiringnuclear weapons, but decided not to do so because help with their civilian programs was judged to matter more, might think that they too can have it both ways. Another danger:... non-nuclear countries will havemore reason than before to see NPT as charade which lets powerful hold on to their own nukes andallows their friends to acquire them, while excluding everyone else... On balance...it seems US eagerness to cement better relationship with India has led it to damage the effort to contain the spread of nuclear weapons... India might better have been offered something it values even more highly than nuclear help, and deserves far better: US support for its quest to win a permanent seat on UN Security Council". For description of current global debate for creating new permanent/non-permanent UNSC seats: Economist30 Jul 05"The UN Security Council: United We Stand"(27-30)."An unexpected agreement on expansion".

 

The Economist 30 Jul 05"America and the Middle East: Does He Know Where It's Leading?"(22-4):-Special Report's summary:"George Bush's administration has dramatically stirred things up in Middle East. It's ahigh-risk policy pointing in many directions, hopeful as well as frightening." Item lists various limited movements in/towards democracy, setting out concentrated notes on situations in: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey. Relevant US policies are also broadly judged. "Global terrorism that was one of the prime targets of the assault on...Iraq appears to have increased... Indeed, it is widely assumed that the battle for Iraq has enlarged the pool of would-be Islamist terrorists keen to wreak anti-western havoc elsewhere".However, "there are numerous other instances of change  in the region that probably would not have happened without US assertiveness... Bush is utterly serious about trying to spread democracy across region as a hoped-for long-term antidote to the cancer of terrorism which, in his view, is the product of undemocratic politics". Item describes situation/prospects in many locations, but with special stress: "For US administration, today's two biggest issues in the region, by far, are Iraq and Israel-Palestine - in that order".Each discussed via specific options/problems. It concludes: "Bringing democracy to regionis long-term, even generational, project. Elections are one thing; slowly building civil institutions and fairerlegal systems, inculcating culture of tolerance/debate, finding new balance between clerical and secular authority, giving women voice - quite another, and takes much longer. Meanwhile, at any rate to begin with, US sure to remain deeply unloved. Question is whether, over time, Arabs will be grateful to it for starting process, however clumsily, which may - just may - lead to good in the end."

 

The Economist 06 Aug 05"Saudi Arabia: More Of the Same Won't Do"(Edit.10-1); Saudi Arabia: New King, Same Dreadful Job"(35); "The Gulf And Its Oil: Slurping Around"(36); "Obituary: King Fahd"(71):-Editorialmakes key point:"Time is running out for the House of Saud... King Fahd... who died this week had had nothing to do with running Saudi Arabia since 1995; his younger half-brother Abdullah, moving seamlesslyfrom crown prince to king, will simply rule on. But succession raises pressing questions about future ofHouse of Saud - and about whether West should still rely on present Saudi establishment as bulwarkagainst ever-more-frightening phenomenon of global Islamist terror. Broad answer is yes. But new monarch... must strive much harder to bring kingdom into modern world - or whole Saudi edifice may come tumbling down... House of Saud must lose power - gracefully/gradually or in violence/humiliation...In a country that provides world with so much of its energy, managed change would plainly be better than...violent revolution... Saudis have as much right to democracy as... anyone else."

 

The Economist 13 Aug 05"Leaving Gaza: Goodbye, And After"(Edit.11); "Special Report: Israel's Settlers: Waiting For a Miracle"(21-3):-thrust of Editorial is that"Israel's disengagement from Gaza strip will lead nowhere unless George Bush re-engages in Palestine...Beyond economics, Palestinians need a 'political horizon'- a believable promise that Bush's oft-enunciated'vision'of viable Palestinian state in West Bank as well as Gaza is achievable without recourse to the gun... With US pushing, it should at least be possible to start a process, building first on self-government for Gaza and, in West Bank, a settlement freeze followed by further withdrawals. Israelis and Palestinians are exhausted after five years of violence, andsusceptible to pressure... Bush has kept his distance. Day after Sharon pulls out must be the day that Bush steps in". SR notes that "The row over Israel's biggest evacuation of settlers in over two decadespresages a growing clash over what makes the Jewish state Jewish". It then describes different views that have existed/developed among Jews, and have changed as the world - and Palestinian demography - have affected Israeli circumstances. Economist 20 Aug 05"Jewish History: Facing Zion":-offers a review of the recent book by Howard M.Sachar"A History of the Jews in the Modern World"(Knopf; 830 pages; $40).Review is summarized:"A new history of the Jews is anxious about Israel, less so about Jewish identity".Economist 27 Aug 05"The Status Of Gaza: Now Who Takes the Blame?"(39):-Item examines"The puzzle of Gaza's new legal status". In particular,"the question now looms:'will Gaza still be 'occupied territory'?...Under 1993 Oslo accords, Gaza and West Bank are one unit, so either all of it is' occupied'or none of it is ...Fourth Geneva Convention (1949) lays down what occupier must do for the occupied, such as providing basic services,.. giving aid agencies free access, and - the most egregious of Israel's violations- not settling its own citizens there... Trouble is, international law never imagined anywhere like this - a place neither fully occupied nor completely sovereign... UN will only pass judgement - if ever - whenthings are much clearer. Until then...much will depend on what stance other countries/foreign donors take".Economist 24 Sep 05"Special Report: Palestinians in Gaza: Will They Sink Or Swim?"(29-31):-item looks at serious military/terrorist issues mainly as some of complicating factors facing substantial population(2.8m by 2020) and profound poverty("its near-equals are... Malawi, Burundi, Somalia and Sierra Leone). Report's basic argument is: "Israel's withdrawal has left Gaza seething, lawless, poor, cut off from outside world - and with a one-time chance to make a new start". Analysis is informative and tough but positive.

 

The Economist 03 Sep 05"Iraq: Hope Against Hope"(Edit.12); "Iraq: A Nearly Final Constitution"(41-2):-Editorial claims:"Though the draft constitution has not pleased all groups, it deserves to be endorsed"and concludes: "Sunni Arab rejectionists are wrong - and unrealistic - on all counts. They were top dogs before; now they aren't, and nor should they be. New Iraqis are embarking on experiment in devolved, multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian democracy to build a fairer country than before. If draft can be adjusted to placate more Sunnis, so much the better. But if Sunnis hold out en masse, their minority will be ultimate losers, even if US forces do rush for exit, as they are honour-bound not to. Sensible Sunni Arabs will swallow their pride and sign up. If not, they will increase chance of Iraq's fragmentation - just what they say they want to avoid". Article summarized: "It is still unclear whether document agreed upon ... will be endorsed. If it is, will it help snuff out Iraq's insurgency?" It ends: "Sunnis hope that a new document would... softenpresent version's federal character. That is probably a vain hope. Kurds and Shias are wedded to theirbasic bargain: wide autonomy in Kurdish north in return for Shias' ability to carve out a more stridentlyIslamist administration in south. Even if they have to start writing a constitution anew, that bargain is likely to hold - unless, of course, country collapses in sectarian civil war. In that case, all constitutions become irrelevant".

 

The Economist 03 Sep 05"Drugs in Colombia: Hand Picked"(36):-item reports on developments in Latin American state that follow those in Economist's item of 12 Feb 05 above, and constitute"New twists in war on coca"."Colombia's government has based its push against the country's illegal cocaine industryon a massive campaign of aerial spraying of the coca crop with glyphosate, a weed-killer... According to surveys by UN Office on Drugs and Crime, land under coca in Colombia shrank to 86,000 hectares in 2003 from a peak of 163,300 hectares in 2000. But, since then, spraying seems to have brought diminishing returns. According to latest UN survey, land under coca fell only 7% in 2004, to 80,000 hectares even though 136,000 hectares sprayed. So Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's president, has changed tactics. Most important is to pull more coca bushes up by hand... Manual eradiction... cheaper... than spraying. It is more effective, too, as coca requires repeat applications of glyphosate before it dies... Officials say that aerial spraying will remain mainstay of their anti-drug effort. But critics point out that while demand for cocaine remains unchanged, spraying merely drives coca cultivation deeper under jungle canopy, where harder to detect, as well as stimulating development of higher-yielding and herbicide-resistant varieties. Uribe recently suggested that his government buy coca crop from farmers. That smacks of desperation. Not first Latin American president to find himself squeezed uncomfortablybetween US pressure to win 'war on drugs' and market realities that make victory so hard".

 

The Economist 10 Sep 05"The United Nations: The Oil-For-Food Fiasco"(Edit.12-3); "Special Report: The United Nation: Can Its Credibility Be Repaired?"(30-2):-Both items deal with how a decision on UNSG Kofi Annan's program to constructively reform the UN coincides with the release of a serious critique against UN management. The reform program was to be debated/drafted before, and then submitted to, a special UN global summit in New York in Sep 05. Editorial argues:"After more than a year of investigation, Paul Volcker... chose this [week] to publish his report on what went wrong with UN's oil-for-food program in Iraq... Program...basic aim...was to allow Iraq under sanctions to sell...oil so that some basic food/medical needs...could still be met. But Volcker's team confirms that program was riddled with waste, inefficiency and corruption. [Yet] Volcker has found no evidence at all that UNSG himself did anything corrupt [and argues] Annan not responsible for everything that went wrong... UN Security Council tried to keepcontrol through a sanctions committee of national diplomats. Having neither UNSC nor secretariat in clear command was recipe for 'evasion of responsibility at all levels' ... Annan should not be fall guy for US' s failure to muster [UNSC Iraq-invasion] consensus in its favour". SR first reports on Volcker's belief that"failings it found are symptomatic of 'systemic problems' throughout [UN system, which hence]needs thoroughgoing reform - and urgently...Recent studies...come to identical conclusion, including High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change set up by UNSG himself[, which] forms basis for reform that over 170 heads of state/government to endorse in NY 14-16 Sep... There has been enormous trouble in drafting so-called 'outcome document'which, based on panel's proposals, to be presented to summit. Bargaining had been mired in furious wrangling between member states, with US pitched against group of developing countries... [Then John Bolton, new US ambassador (op.cit.)] threw negotiations into further crisis by insisting on hundreds of last-minute changes to 39-page draftdocument that everyone else had thought was pretty near complete. [Some alterations demanded] toreinto the delicately balanced 'grand bargain'between rich and poor...Plan was: poor to have Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) reaffirmed, along with promises of more aid and debt relief, pledge to tackle climate change and progress on disarmament. Developed world: to get clear definition of terrorismincluding those considered 'freedom fighters' by some, agreed right to humanitarian intervention, powerfulnew human rights body that would exclude human-rights violators, creation of new 'peacebuilding commission'to help reconstruction of post-war states and UN management reform". Essence of UNSG proposals had been preserved. "But Bolton's line-by-line amendments, including his widely reportedinsistence on deletion of all specific references to MDGs, the International Criminal Court, and Kyoto summit, along with what were perceived as his bullying tactics, opened a Pandora's box. Developing countries retaliated with a string of their own amendments which, if adopted, would have emasculatedwhole document". A rescue operation involving 'core'group of 30 countries was negotiating day and nightat time of publication. Latter half of document offers special analyses on following issues: Use of force and collective security; Humanitarian intervention; The Security Council; Terrorism; Human Rights Council;Non-proliferation; Is Annan to go or to stay?

 

The Economist 10 Sep 05"Democracy in the Middle East: Lessons From Egypt"(Edit.13-4); "Egypt: Only a First Step, But It Matters"(43-4):-Editorial argues that US campaign for democracy in the Middle East is struggling ahead - and "needs wider support... Germ of open political debate, if not of unfettered democracy, is in the air. Demands for more freedom, more choice and more accountability are even louder, in Egypt and elsewhere in the region. For reasons of Egyptian pride and US tact, both sides pretend that the idea of allowing other candidates to stand against [the existing President, Hosni] Mubarak, was Egypt's. But the plain fact is that without US nagging, Mubarak [- after 24 years as dictator -] would neverhave considered for a second that he should let himself be challenged at the polls for the top job...Mubarak had to...explain himself as never before. Brave dissenting voices have been heard. It will beharder now for government to shut them up. Elsewhere in the Arab world, democracy is edging ahead".Lebanese, Iraqi and Palestinian major - if imperfect - elections are discussed elsewhere. "Arabs' morebenevolent monarchs, notably in Morocco, Jordan and Gulf states... are moving tentatively towards more representative forms of government... [Yet] US motives [in support] are still held in the deepest suspicion. Educated and unlettered Arabs alike still tend to think US is driven by a thirst for cheap oil,hatred of Islam, a loathsome bias in favour of Israel, and a hypocritical readiness to back dictators when it suits them. [US] campaign for democracy is still widely derided as opportunistic and insincere". Thelonger article provides more detail about the important political situation in Egypt, and throughout theMiddle East. Ironically all of this has an influence on the terrorist activities of the al-Qaeda movement. Anextraordinary analysis of Osama bin Laden's desire to improve the Islamic societies and regimes in the Middle East, and hence of his attack on the US, seen as the critical supporter/beneficiary of horrible Arab dictators, is found in "Taking Stock of the Forever War" by Mark Danner, published in New York Timeson 11 Sep 05. Economist 10 Dec 05"Egypt's Election: Not Yet a Democracy"(54); "The United Arab Emirates: Democracy By Appointment"(54):-both items describe genuine but limited movements towards democracy in Mideast. Summary of Egyptian item:"General election with more choice was still marred by thuggery and fraud". Highlights: "On paper, Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party(NDP) won big enough majority to go on rubber-stamping laws, as it has since President Hosni Mubarak took office 24 years ago. But election's other effects far more telling. Most obvious is rise of Muslim Brotherhood, ..banned by law since 1954, but [with] candidates as independents since 80s. Ran for only 150 of parliament's 454 seats this time; yet its candidates polled nearly 40% of all votes cast, winning at least 90 seats outright, a sixfold increase. [This was despite government] crudeness, including arrest of some1,500 Brotherhood supporters. [This] is not new to Egyptian politics, [but] this time it prompted something that is: broad and vocal outrage. Not only did independent monitors cry foul, so did many judges, [someof whom] recounted... riot police and plainclothes thugs beating off opposition voters, and policesummarily closing polling stations. [Moreover,] fewer than 20% Egyptians now get their news from state TV, while more than half follow al-Jazeera[op.cit.]. [Although] in much of country voting fairly peaceful, ..grubbiness of Egypt's politics annoyed US administration, which wants smoother democratic transitionin a country that absorbs annual $1.8b in US aid... Big question now is whether government will feel obliged to legalise Brotherhood as a party... Perhaps, next time, the 75% of Egyptians who did not bother to votewill do so. Summary of UAE item is: "Tiny step towards representative government, but where might it lead?". Monarch of Abu Dhabi, also president of Gulf's seven-country United Arab Emirates, said thatbit of democracy in order. Half the deputies in UAE's Federal National Council [with little power] willhenceforth be elected after a fashion, whereas at present all are appointed by a committee of seniorsheikhs. People do not... seem to be thirsting for full-blooded democracy. Most of the rulers... are popular. After all, they have presided over 30 years of peace/prosperity and share out enough of wealth to keep people fairly happy. Moreover, barely 20% of 4m residents are citizens: rest are workers from abroad".

 

The Economist 24 Sep 05"Afghanistan's Parliamentary Elections: Putting Steel Into Karzai"(Edit.17);"Afghanistan's Elections: Democracy, Sort Of"(54):-Overall conclusion: "A relatively peaceful vote, butAfghanistan's future still not secure... Parliamentary and provincial elections held 18 Sep were violent, with19 polling stations attacked by Taliban insurgents and a dozen people killed. Intimidation and fraud wereevident, compounded by confusing voting system, whereby each candidate stood as independent. Butthis was much less chaos than had been predicted... [T]urnout...at around 50% nonetheless bespoke strong support for democracy and accountable governance[; but] promised recovery lies further ahead than ruination lies behind... By preventing... political parties President sought to ensure weak opposition...Of 207 'commander-candidates' identified before poll, merely 32 disqualified...Karzai to blame [and] must now undo harm his weakness has done, and ensure no elected candidate/other official maintains a militia. To persuade Karzai to do this, allies must add steel to their assurances. [U]ncertain whether [NATO] allies would fill the breach US would like. Must do so. [At stake] are fights against Taliban, al-Qaeda and drugdealers... Ultimately no western power can end insurency raging in southern/eastern Afghanistan... Will take years, [b]ut... Pakistan could reduce the killing...and must arrest its old friends, Taliban leaders";

 

The Economist 01 Oct 05"Protests in China: The Cauldron Boils"(38-9):-"Chinese government getting increasingly twitchy about... rapid growth in number/scale of public protests. [F]ace serious instability? Probably not, for now at least. But in longer term, reasons to worry... Almost always ['mass incidents' ] sparked by local grievances, rather than antipathy to party's rule... [Officially,] some 74,000 protests in [04], involving more than 3.7m. [D]emonstrations involving more than 100 occurred in 337 cities and 1,955 counties in 10 months[of 04. P]olice forces merging existing anti-riot and counter-terrorist units into new 'special police'... In some ways, unrest makes China look much more like normal developing country than rigidly controlled system it was until early 90s. Increasingly common to encounter small-scale protests in Chinese cities that only few years ago would have horrified order-obsessed cadres. [O]fficials often saygreater social unrest normal in developing countries with per capita GDP between $1,000 and $3,000...Party's dilemma: much of unrest product of rapid economic growth, so keen to maintain. [E]xpansion of cities has fuelled clashes with peasants whose land needed for construction. Some argue these mostly isolated protests, if handled sensitively, could help China maintain overall stability by providing people with way of venting frustrations. But [also said:] unrest is sign China lacks channels for people toair discontent in more orderly fashion. Widespread corruption and increasingly conspicuous wealth fuelcontempt for officialdom that can easily erupt into...class-based rioting. [S]hould economy falter, urbanChina could be faced with twin dangers of angry middle class saddled with big mortgage