Virginia D. Abernethy, Population Politics: The Choices that Shape Our Future(New York: Insight Books 93):-an influential source, frequently cited for its study of human incentives. It takes now widely-held view that developing an informed motivation to lower fertility rates(e.g. perception of limited resources)must often precede active use of contraceptives. It also makes radical proposal: total US immigration ban.[In fact, current migration from poor to rich countries barely affects demographic pressures or trends, although short-distance, large-scale movements (such as from Bangladesh to Assam)can have local impact.] G. Pascal Zachary, "An Unconventional Academic Sounds Population Alarm" in Wall Street Journal 31 Jul 98, reports that Abernethy opposed most aid to poor countries since, contrary to "demographic transition" theory(that fertility falls as living standards rise), prosperity increases fertility.[Most experts probably feel that while" transition" is much more complex than once thought, perceiving its complete reversalwould:(1)confuse some immediate, with major long-term, effects of rising living standards (low OECD fertility);(2)ignore many other factors, e.g. female education; women's choice; cultural imperatives.]

Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.

Paul R.Abramson & Ronald Inglehart Value Change in Global Perspective(Ann Arbor: Univ. of Michigan Press 95):-makes a statistical survey of most major countries, rich and poor, to demonstrate that there is a generational trend for public opinion to change from primary concern with Materialism(economic development, security, etc.)to Postmaterialism (democracy, human rights). For another viable option available, so many can reflect the change in their global values, see: Kimon Valaskakis et al., The Conserver Society: A Workable Alternative for the Future(Toronto: Fitzhenry & Whiteside, 1979).

Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the Unknown (Toronto: Time Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious: 17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists and academics. Aim is to survey where scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be global and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and implications; "Third World" -relevant technology; genderdifferences; care of global commons and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy forms; ethical computing; "homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at trends and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example ofvaluable collections of what are in fact 21st-Century global issues, put together by good general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions like anniversaries or new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with subjects global in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably offer reading lists.

James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

Patricia Adams and Grainne Ryder, "China's Great Leap Backward: Uneconomic and Outdated, the Three Gorges Dam Will Stunt China's Economic Growth" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.4(Autumn 98):-fear of global warming produced above all by fossil fuels' carbon dioxide caused real concern about China's vast impact as world's largest producer/consumer of coal, worst fossil fuel CO2 source. Yet large hydroelectric dams also produced great environmental damage, and Three Gorges Dam will be largest in world. Hence article argues Dam hydro-generation should be replaced by "either combined cycle gas turbines or cogeneration [which] would reduce CO2 emissions by more than 60%" (694).(Explanation in article.)Unfortunately, case is made with such CO2 focus that critical purpose of dam "flood-control" is ignored. See massive global threat from flooding: Economist 11 Mar 00(op.cit.).

M. A. Adelman, The Genie Out of the Bottle: World Oil Since 1970 (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996).- possibly the most serious challenges resulting from world economic and environmental change relate to producing and consuming energy. Oil is still the world's most critical energy source, and will never be exhausted; it will simply cease being economically retrievable.. For those with some economic experience, this book provides anexcellent history of global trends in the oil industry since it became a major factor in world affairs, including OPEC's formation, the OPEC-induced 1970s oil price shocks, and the 1986 collapse of OPEC's attempt to control prices; it also provides a backdrop to recent major changes in the industry. For interesting statistical evidence that oil prices may play a greater role in raising or lowering employment than interest rates, inflation or productivity, see The Economist 01 Apr 00:" Oil and the New Economy" (72).

Agence France-Presse"U.N. Chief Blames Rich Nations for Failure of Trade Talks"New York Times 13 Feb 00:-UNSG Kofi Annan told Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD) in Bangkok that breakdown of WTO meeting in Seattle was not result of violent NGO protests, but was the fault of world's most powerful nations which "could not agree on their priorities" . While the developing nations playedmore "active and united role" than ever before, industrial powers" bickered among themselves" and showed "they did not have will to carry out reforms in[trade]rules" . Annan said barriers were excluding LDCs from benefits of global trade, and called for a "Global New Deal" to "spread the advantages of freer flow of goods, jobs and capital among all countries...open to investment" . Seth Mydans"U.N. Trade Meeting Brings Rich and Poor No Closer"NYT 20 Feb 00:-UNCTAD "ended with no real narrowing of differences" that split WTO meeting, thus confirming UNSG's pessimism. There were only " general expressions of hope that rich and poor nations might eventually agree on formula that would allow them to share benefits of global trade." To this end, LDCs had again demanded fully opened markets for their products, and objected to standards of environmental and worker protection that simply delayed their development. Algeria claimed Africa is being crushed - indeed "rubbed out" - by new world trade order. The Economist 13 May 00"The WTO: Merry-Go-Round" (75-6):-provides useful update on WTO-related issues since WTO/UNCTAD meetings, andconfirms both Annan's complaints: US and EU still "bickering" , and LDCs still getting raw deal. For another, more optimistic/forward-looking update on Transatlantic bickering:Economist 30 Sep 00"Trade: Boom...".

Masood Ahmed & Cheryl Gray Helping Countries Combat Corruption: The Role of the World Bank(Washington: IBRD 97):-produced by World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network(PREM). Bank's World Development Report 1997: The State in a Changing World(op.cit.)also deals with global corruption issues in government context but mainly descriptively, while PREM reportconcentrates on how Bank can help governments address corruption as serious development constraint. Daniel Kaufmann(op.cit.)lists more articles and books on this issue.

Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put these threats at the top of his national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries". Emphasized extracts:"Over the past eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons". "Obama's mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School of Government. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation. Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson "The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, but many political and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From first paragraph:"Over the past three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear agenda includes renewing formal arms control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear nonproliferation regime, and redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made this goal a priority for his administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he was Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.

Fouad Ajami"The Ways of Syria: Statis in Damascus"(153-158)Foreign AffairsVol.88/No.3 (May/Jun 09):-Review Essay of Itamar Ravinovich: The View From Damascus: State, Political Community, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria(Vallentine Mitchell 08, 365pp. $49.95). Official summary:"As Washington [and Israel?] consider[s] a rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad's Syria, Itamar Ravinovich's commanding new book makes clear that change will not come quickly or easily - and, if the past is any indication, it may not come at all". Selected emphatic extract:"A big... book of history and diplomacy by the Israeli scholar takes readers deep into the world of the Syrian state - and into that mix of pride and injury that has shaped its modern history. [He] tracks the twists and turns of Syria's political journey in recent decades, its transformation from the plaything of outside powers into a player of consequence in the Levant. No other writer has dug as deep into such material as [author] has in this book, a distillation of a lifetime of concern with the ways of Syria". Ajami: Professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ School of Advanced International Studies and Adjunct Research Fellow at Hoover Institution.

Philip G.Altbach & Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign Policy No.144(Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be influenced by "worldly" visions. Despite newglobal concerns with terrorism" there is no holding back the flow of students seeking education beyondtheir borders"; Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase to 8m by 2025." Regarding content, "literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/management, engineering, mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asiancountries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled through distance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leading receiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000), Britain(223,000), France(135,000), Germany(185,000),US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own study/living expenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintain strong ties from abroad, someeventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies byproviding expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remainsproblem for many poorer societies". It may then be related to expenses that "increasing number[of potential foreign student payers is]looking for new options in developing world"; emergence of mega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of'brain trade'forever.

Lawrence K.Altman "Study Finds Drop in H.I.V. Cases in South India"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"Prevalence of new HIV infections has fallen significantly in southern India, region of that country where the disease hasoccurred most often, scientists reported. Many health officials have predicted major increases in HIV in India, which has world's second highest number of infected people, after South Africa. But new infections among young aduts declined by more than a third from 2000 through 2004, according to astatistical study. [Article contains selected statistics from study and varied information about sources.]Authors attributed favorable trend to an increasing use of condoms by men and an insistence by prostitutes that their partners use them. That decline, in turn, reduced transmission of HIV to spouses.Experts cautioned against drawing too firm a conclusion from one study and added that the new findingsdid not mean India's HIV epidemic was over. Still, the study has two key implications, researchers said.One is that strategies that emphasize education about how HIV can be transmitted and the use of condoms offer the best hope for reducing the spread of the virus in India. Second is that routine monitoring of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases are powerful and cost-effective ways to control AIDS in India. But experts urged constant vigilance for signs of a reversal of the favorable trend...Reductions were more modest in 14 northern states, where prevalence of HIV infections is about one-fifth that in the four southern states".

Roger C.Altman "The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West"(2-14) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"The economic collapse of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the West. It has stripped Wshdc and European governments of the resources and credibility they need to maintain their roles in global affairs. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the meantime they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the US". Emphasized extracts:"The crisis' underlying cause was the combination of very low interest rates and unprecedented levels of liquidity". "US deficit for the fiscal year that began in Oct 08 will approach $1 trillion - or 7.5% of US GDP". Altman is Chair/CEO of Evercore Partners. Was US Deputy Treasury Secretary 93-4.

Sudhir Anand & Amartya K.Sen Sustainable Human Development: Concepts and Priorities(New York: UNDP/ODS 96):-tries to provide rationale for bringing together narrowly environmental viewof "sustainable" world and case for eliminating "inequities" in living conditions. Argument for "human development" (pushed by UNDP/World Bank/this bibliography)made well, but its role in population controland easing pressure on the planet's carrying capacity mentioned only weakly and indirectly. Generaleconomic development( "overall opulence" )criticized as "partisan" for failing "to take note of need for impartiality in allocating entitlements" i.e.collective statistics hide unacceptable inequities. Imbalanced - or at least imperfect - defence of key imperatives.

Chris Anderson, "The Young(stressing Youth and Age)" The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explorescauses/elements/ global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing down of traditional...order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders". Rapid, relentless pace ofchange(technological/social)favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; riskfutures; prefer opportunity to wealth/ security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth's growing role/impact in decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge]Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow; increasingly they are leaders of today" .

Kofi A.Annan"The Quiet Revolution"Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" . These aims all relevant to effective economic development.

Kofi A.Annan, "Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/ 2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global efforts to foresee, prevent, or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN activities over year to Sep 99, and selected plans and problems(in 130pp). Chapters address: peace and security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights; administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN obligations/reforms/savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial irresponsibility. Most references to ECONOMIC TRENDS/ISSUES are in the context ofdevelopment (assistance)(42-63)and the multiple effects of globalization(76-89)on other UN preoccupations.UNGA held a high-level meeting involving the private sector, civil society and the UN System on thesocial/economic impact of globalization and, with ECOSOC, is trying to work more closely with Bretton Woods institutions/the private sector on globalization, development finance and other economic issues.

Kofi A.Annan"UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world" .[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/ technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]

Kofi A.Annan"We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century"Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty- first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/ unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research;improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).

Kofi A.Annan"Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep 99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress and challenges at turn of millennium,and suggests ways in which international community can work together to" better lives of people still left behind" .Introduction, summarizing 130-page report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources. (5)Reviewsanalysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6) controversial economicbenefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared. (7)Must be cooperative management ofglobal economic affairs through more effective governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions, civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/Security; Humanitarian Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UNManagement.

Kofi A.Annan Report of the [UN] Secretary-General to the Preparatory Committee for the High-level International Intergovernmental Event on Financing for Development:-this collaborative effort(officially UNGA Document A/AC.257/12)runs to 64 pages, makes 87 recommendations, and was commissioned by Millennium Summit to help focus discussion at a Mar 2002 global meeting on development financing(still an "event" since it awaits an official title). Involved directly in the report's preparation were: many parts of the UN proper(particularly DESA, UNCTAD and UNDP); UN Agencies; the Bank, Fund and WTO; the regional development banks; OECD; the Financial Stability Forum; many governments/otherstakeholders(arranged by the UN regional commissions); the business community; and civil society organizations. Hence it reflects extremely varied, expert and authoritative views - significant, since some proposals are quite radical, even if presented solely on the responsibility of the UN Secretariat. The report consists of an Introduction and six chapters, the latter perhaps being the agenda items of the "event" : I. Mobilizing domestic financial resources for development; II. Mobilizing international resources for development: foreign direct investment and other private flows; III. Trade; IV. Increasing international financial cooperation for development through, inter alia, official development assistance; V. Debt; VI. Addressing systemic issues: enhancing coherence and consistency of the international monetary, financial and trading systems in support of development. For highlights, see UN Press Release DEV/2275at: http://www.un.org/News/Press /docs/2001/ dev2275.htm. Complete text(which explains all acronyms!)also downloaded from Web: http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.htm or http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.pdf. For three articles about Report(highlighting the dirty bits)see: Christopher S.Wren"U.N. Report Proposes Steps to Fight Global Poverty"New York Times 30 Jan 01; Reuters"Annan Offers Poor Nations 87 Ways to Lure Funds" NYT 30 Jan; Wren "The U.N. Offers 87 Remedies to Help Poor Nations Develop" NYT 04 Feb. UNSG's opening speech at subsequent Prepcom meeting is reported in: Reuters "Annan: Poor Nations Must Set Development Priorities" NYT 12 Feb. It describes his theme as: LDCs "should play a greater role in setting policy and priorities in financing of global development" and cease to be "decided in clubs where only rich countries have real influence". Issue is of course a perennial one at UN, where contribution-weighted voting in Bretton Woods bodies is seen as "grossly unfair" and "neo-colonialist" by aid recipients, whose very survival may be at stake, but "absolutely essential" by investment-oriented donors, who feel "shareholders" have natural rights to determine where and how their own money is spent. Annan aims to increase relative role of "one-country-one-vote" UN fora(UNGA; ECOSOC)in making broad global development policies and priorities. He also is very concerned to make foreign investment in LDCs larger and less volatile as ODA continues its decline. Advising him is a high-level panel(Zedillo, Rubin, Delors...).

Kofi A.Annan"Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities"The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit diseasetreatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New isrange/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidating population/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichmentand urged to voluntary time-limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitorcompliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiationsince 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/ avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hastenefforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to givestrategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/othercomparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/ diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole;not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSG more responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press," Researchers Produce a Healthier Rice"New York Times 14 Jan 00:-item reports that "scientists have genetically engineered a type of rice that could end vitamin A deficiency in the developing world". About 14m children worldwide are deficient; so besides reducing widespread blindness, raising vitamin A levels could prevent 1-2m deaths a year. Swiss researchers successfully spliced three genes into rice to make it rich in beta carotene, a source of vitamin A. While tests are ensuring the original nutritional value is maintained, the famous International Rice Research Institute(IRRI) is working tobreed the trait into popular rice varieties. New developments reported in David Barboza, "AstraZeneca to Sell a Genetically Engineered Strain of Rice" NYT 16 May(Note to Anthony DePalma"Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets...").

Associated Press"China Refines Birth-Control Policy"New York Times 07 May 00:-this report on a new government policy says China" hopes to limit its growing population to 1.4b people in 2010 by refining" its current policy. This is an unlikely feat, given that the present official figure of 1.25b may understate the real total by tens of millions, and experts believe the population will actually peak about 1.6b around 2050. Beijing claims:" A more perfect control system will be built and a better environment...created...[S]afe, effective and proper contraceptive methods should be made available to women...Nevertheless, the population will increase by 10m a year in the next few decades" . Officials already worry this will outstripfinite supplies of water, farmland and other resources, requiring major grain imports, but an unintended population-control factor has developed: boys being preferred, China may already have 100m more males than females.

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .

Associated Press"Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:- "Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Jacques Attali "The Crash of Western Civilization: The Limits of the Market and Democracy" Foreign PolicyNo.107 (Summer 97):-contends that democracy and market economy mutually incompatible. Former promotes the individual, is based on equality, relies on citizens' responsibilities/coalitions, needs sedentary voters, and supports majority decisions. Markets view people only as commodities, foster inequality, exploit selfishness, and prefer nomads and aggregated self-interest. Civilization will collapse under a market dictatorship!

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Benjamin R.Barber Jihad vs. McWorld: How the Planet is Both Falling Apart and Coming Together and What This Means for Democracy(New York: Times Books 95):-unusual and debatable perception of some broad global trends that has generated new interest - though not necessarily credibility for its conclusion - since its publication. Argues world experiencing basic conflict between homogenizing power of post-industrial capitalism/ "fundamentalist" ethnic-religious reaction. Believes both forces undermine state(presumably in terms of traditional sovereignty)and hence democracy.[Why and how is democracy so dependent upon sanctity of Westphalian nation-state?]Sources of new interest derive, of course, from growth of anti-globalization movement, however disunited it may be in both fears and formulas, and "Clash of Civilizations" thesis put forward by Samuel P. Huntington(op.cit.)and apparently illustrated -all too violently-by Osama bin Laden.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Robert J.Barro Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study(Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997):-these lectures draw on statistics, newly available for most countries over several decades, in order to study what causes growth. Among the findings: the main factors conducive to higher growth rates are abetter rule of law, higher initial education and life expectancy, lower costs for official welfare, lower fertility, and better terms of trade. More democracy up to a certain level also favours economic growth, but beyond that other priorities intervene. It was decided that inflation over 20% deters growth.

Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis and Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa(Oxford:James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamentingdemography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/violence).While driven by change, these African reactions show historicalinfluence of approving accumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thusnationalism, government and law are simply used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.

Barbara Beck"The Economics of Ageing: The Luxury of Longer Life" The Economist 27 Jan 96 (Survey 1-16):-longer average lifespans worldwide are raising global, and not simply national, problems in fields like economics and finance, travel and migration, medicine and health care, social and cultural change, and even moral standards.

Elizabeth Becker "Number of Hungry Rising, U.N. Says" New York Times 08 Dec 04:-UN agency Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)makes ominous report: for first time in almost decade, estimated number in the world going hungry has increased. Despite overall increase in global wealth, FAO states, after slow/steady decrease, chronically hungry rose to nearly 852m(18m increase since 00); 5m children aredying of hunger annually. FAO senior claimed world now producing more than enough food, so problemis access to jobs/resources/land/money to buy food. UN's International Labor Organization(ILO)reported that record 1.4b(half world's workers) earn less than $2 daily. Oxfam reported that global aid budgets now total half of level in 60. Yet UN's Millennium Development Goals, pledged by all the world's governments, set targets to halve extreme poverty/hunger by 15." At least 80% of world's chronically hungry live in rural areas and over half...subsistence farmers. Competition from world's wealthiest farmers, heavily subsidized by rich governments,...blamed in part for the inequity. Trade ministers have promised to continueworking to reduce agricultural subsidies/supports at global trade talks next year [WTO].In measuring hunger [FAO]considers calorie intake/amount of food available/ inequities in access to food supplies. Thirtycountries [Asia/ Africa/Latin America]cut percentage of hungry people at least 25% over last decade byreducing conflict/focusing ...programs on rural areas/ small farmers.[This fundamentally critical, since]children under three most vulnerable to disease/ death. Without proper nutrition, difficult for these children to ever recover/lead productive lives."

Zanny Minton Beddoes, "Global Finance: Time for a Redesign?" The Economist 30 Jan 99(1-18):-excellentSURVEY: (1)identifies perceived and objective problems with generally uncontrolled, if IMF- "cushioned" ,world financial system;(2)describes often radical, mutually incompatible, and/or unfeasible reform plans;(3)offers some more modest but workable proposals. Dangers include certainty of crises if systems are not changed; IMF's "moral-hazard" role not reduced. Reform ideas range from IMF-abolition, through capital controls, to creation of global regulator, central bank, or world currency. Incompatibleobjectives remain: maintaining national sovereignty/ regulating financial markets/benefiting from global capital markets. Proposals:(1)rich states can improve norms of own financial markets;(2)can encourage responsible creditor behaviour;(3)institutions must innovate.

Zanny Minton Beddoes, "From EMU to AMU? The Case for Regional Currencies" (8-13)in Foreign AffairsVol.78/No.4 (Jul/Aug 99):-Washington economics writer for The Economist predicts that by 2030 the world will have two major currency zones, result of regional currency unions. Whole of Europe will use euro, whilewhole Western Hemisphere and possibly parts of Asia will use the dollar. Reason is that: "Regional currencies will prove the best route to reconciling the economic imperatives of increasing international capital mobility with the political realities of the nation-state" (8). More specifically, many emerging economies will have to curb capital flows, so the author argues by examining other options(floating exchange rates, fixed rates, currency boards)that most efficient way is currency union since it makes most credible commitment to stability, acting as "bulwark against protectionism" (13).

Zanny Minton Beddoes, "The International Financial System: Think Again" (16-27)Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-the Economist's Washington economics correspondent argues against, qualifies, or supports numerous widely-held views about a need for new global financial architecture: a global market for capital does not yet exist; most just moves about. Allowing free capital movement in and out of a countrymay stimulate economic growth, if action is not premature. Recent emerging-market crashes are worse, but not more frequent, than before. Their "contagion" not always irrational. Most crises are caused by weak banking systems, helped by lack of "due diligence" by foreign banks. Most ideas for new "global financial architecture" are ill-advised and/or politically unfeasible. Reforms should not concentrate on capital flows control; at most dissuade short-term flows. A global central bank is unrealistic and imperfect. IMF merits some criticism and "moral hazard" concerns, but bailouts are not to blame for international economic crises, and few private investors escape lightly. Major lessons have been learned.

C.Fred Bergsten"Foreign Economic Policy for the Next President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.2 (Mar/Apr 04):-identified as first in series of commissioned essays on foreign policy concerns for next president. After recommending US initiatives to improve a number of trade and related programs, Bergsten concludes:" [F]oreign economic policy could rescue overall US foreign policy. US's biggestproblem in the international arena is its tendency to act unilaterally on a range of issues. Such...is demonstrably ineffective and thus thankfully rare in the economic domain. The international economicinitiatives proposed in this essay would convey a new image of US foreign policy while furthering US national interests. They should rank high on the agenda of the next US president.

C.Fred Bergsten"The World Economy: The Risks Ahead for the World Economy" The Economist 11 Sep 04(63-5):-director of Institute for International Economics in Washington DC, author was invited to explain why policymakers - particularly in US and China - must take action now to avert real danger of global economic problems. Essay's introduction makes case clear: "Five major risks threaten world economy. Three centre on US: renewed sharp increases in current-account deficit leading to crash of dollar; budget profilethat is out of control; and outbreak of trade protectionism. Fourth relates to China, which faces possible hard landing from its recent overheating. Fifth is that oil prices could rise to $60-70 per barrel even without major political or terrorist disruption, and much higher with one...If two or three...were to occur incombination then they would radically reverse global outlook." Related action must be taken by number of governments, both to maintain global growth and "avoid deeper oil stocks and new traderestrictions." While there are considerable highlights about US and Chinese financial and trade policies, both subjects are now clearly more and more of world impact and importance. [Hence internationalcooperation to ensure economic growth is increasingly of global necessity; "nationals" at WTO/IBRD/IMF..meetings must think globally.] Economist 13 Nov 04 "China: The Emperor Is Not Always Obeyed" (46):-article reports little on China's high growth rate, and much on new limits to Beijing's role/ability to determine the nature/rate of economic growth. "[M]any...new contradictions from central planning andstate ownership to something nearer market economics. Upstart private firms...now play important role in bringing new vitality to China's industries. But some essential things - such as bank credit and political support - still flow much more readily to state-run enterprises.[C]entral government has sought to limit economic overheating with mix of macroeconomic and administrative measures. Last month's interest-rate increase, China's first in nine years, was preceded by series of orders curbing bank lending and restrictingfixed-asset investments, especially in...industries...At local/provincial levels, however, officials have understandably remained keen to keep up growth rates/tax revenues/employment figures.[S]een imposition of any measures designed to slow economic activity rather as they might look at a toxic-waste dump: vital for greater good ...but better in someone else's backyard.[Beijing]has gone from issuing orders to merely'trying to convince local governments that centre's policies are in their own best interests' .That task...has been complicated by rising influence of private firms...which can now muster wherewithal toinvest in capital-intensive projects.[C]entral government faces continuing struggle to control flow of money and investment. It remains fairly effective in regulating bank lending...'but there are huge sums of private money sloshing around that Beijing cannot control'.[H]iring/firing of officials throughout bureaucracy[is now]best defence against rebellious local governments[but]mice out there far outnumber indignant cats of Beijing."

C.Fred Bergsten"A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge"(57-69) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.4(Jul/Aug 08):-official summary:"Despite its growing economic clout, China continues to act like a small country with little impact on the global system at large and therefore little responsibility for it. Behavior threatens to undermine the existing international economic architecture. To avoid a major train wreck, Wshdc should seek todevelop true partnership with Beijing so as to provide joint leadership of global economic system"-e.g. trade/finance/energy/climate. Bergsten:Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Essay adapted from his forthcoming, co-authored book, China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (Peterson Institute and Center for Strategic and International Studies, 08). See very current: Elizabeth C.Economy & Adam Segal "China's Olympic Nightmare: What the Games Mean for Beijing's Future"(47-56):-off.sum:"The 2008 Olympics were meant to be China's global coming-out party. But on the eve of Games, Beijing finds itself beset by internal protests and international condemnation on issues ranging from Darfur/Tibet to air pollution/food safety. If these challenges cannot be peacefully/successfully addressed, China risks losing its credibility as a global leader". Economy: C.V.Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at Council on Foreign Relations. Segal:Maurice R.Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at CFR.

Bruce D.Berkowitz"War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat" Foreign Affairs Vol.79/ No.3 (May/Jun 00) :-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks(and defending your own)have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspectof world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civiliansociety depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing device linked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/technology usable for computer warfare keep improving; lasers/ microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policyissues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and defense.

Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.

Jagdish Bhagwati"The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars" Foreign AffairsVol.77/No.3(May/Jun 98):-one"prevalent myth is that despite the striking evidence of the inherently crisis-prone nature of freer capital movements, a world of full capital mobility continues to be inevitable and immensely desirable". The author disagrees, arguing that while there is correspondence between free trade in goods and services and free capital mobility, capital flows suffer from "panics and manias". Financial crisesare very costly and cannot be eliminated by global banking system reform. Hence capital mobility needs some restraint. The Economist 23 May 98: "Capital Controversies" (112)supports Bhagwati: capital liberalization must proceed cautiously. For an ostensible counter-view to Bhagwati, see Shailendra J. Anjaria "The Capital Truth: What Works for Commodities Should Work for Cash" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/ No.6(Nov/Dec 98):-in fact this IMF official's view is also very cautious: there must be a process of gradual adaptation. Without both sound macroeconomic policies and strong, transparent and properly supervised banks, opening up capital flows is dangerous and inadvisable(143). A consensus developing on constrained capital flows?

Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book is often described as the greatest defense for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in economic policy orin the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled withthe pursuit of free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent into trade sanctions and restrictions. [H]e argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defense of Globalization"(Oxford Univ 04), offers a 300+pp broader approach.

Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.

A.S.Bhalla edit. Globalization, Growth and Marginalization(Ottawa: IDRC, 1998):-a very valuable study(for those knowing basic economics)of the effects of globalization on LDCs. The term is defined here using several global features: trade growth; FDI and capital flows growth; some globally-run production consumption; trade and investment liberalization; global-scale competition; the loss to national sovereignty; the standardization of values and cultures. The aim is to analyse globalization's impact on: (1) growth and productivity; (2) poverty and inequality; (3) employment. LDCs studied by region for both policies and effects. Conclusion is that while every LDC must bend to globalization, its social costs are so great they must be anticipated. Includes good menu of possible research.

Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia & J Alexander Thier“Defining Success in Afghanistan: What Can the United States [and NATO] Accept?”(48-60) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.4 (Jul/Aug 10):-official summary:“Since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, the West has tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with Afghanistan’s history and political culture. A range of alternative models are possible, of which the two most realistic and acceptable in terms of US security interests are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty”. Emphasized extracts:“The US will have to push for a more inclusive, flexible, and decentralized political arrangement”. “Centralized governance matches neither the real internal distribution of power in Afghanistan nor local notions of legitimacy”. Final sentence: “The perfect is probably not achievable in Afghanistan - but the acceptable can still be salvaged”. Biddle is Roger Hertog Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Thier is Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. For a selection of articles on Afghanistan from the Foreign Affairs archives, see the collection at www.foreignaffairs.com/collections/afghanistan.

Nancy Birdsall "Life Is Unfair: Inequality in the World" Foreign Policy No.111(Summer 98):-ratio of average income of world's richest country to poorest grown from about 9 to 1 around century ago to at least 60 to 1 today; 80% of world's population in states generating only 20% of world income. National-income divide between well-educated elite and vulnerable/unskilled usually both evident/widening. Many causes: history; demography; access; policies(trade/ labour/services/investment).Now technology/computers play key role: information and skills are key assets. Hence essential to provide maximum of education/opportunity; states must use labour, and trade/equal access better. "The real danger...growing inequality may become lightning rod for populist rhetoric and self-defeating isolation" .

Nancy Birdsall & Arvind Subramanian,"Saving Iraq From Its Oil"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4 (Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy, since they tend to impede developmentof institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation". In both this and Fareed Zakaria The Future of Freedom(73-6) (op.cit.) oil/minerals criticized for "richness". [In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to basic/processed elements(still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it(slaves? elephant tusks? diamonds?)].Essay is (otherwise)useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when they have local oil production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.

Linda S.Bishai"Sovereignty and Minority Rights: Interrelations and Implications" Global GovernanceVol.4/No.2(Apr/ Jun 98):-addresses growing global source of conflict and structural dilemma for UN. Basis: sovereignty generally treated as all-or-nothing legal concept. Shows that identifications with statehood/territory/total domestic authority -let alone with nationalism- have limited history, generating growing frustration/separatist demands from minority groups and compete with globalization. But as EUshows "nations" can have "sovereignty" in all key cultural fields while being part of larger state for other purposes. Can this not be tried globally? If arguments of interest, "article argues that new conceptions of sovereignty should be directed toward nonterritorial aspects. Four parts to...argument. First explains zero-sum nature of territorial state and problems it poses for liberal multiculturalism. Second reviews varioushistorical types of political community and dual emergence of modern theories of sovereignty/liberalism. Third reveals historical interrelatedness of conceptions of sovereignty and minority, and problem causedfor international system. Last part discusses nature of indicated reconceptualizations ofsovereignty/minorities, and prospective impact they may have on international institutions" .

Matthew Bishop"Social Insurance: Privatising Peace of Mind"The Economist 24 Oct 98(Survey 1-22).-a matter of growing concern for the OECD states, the NICs and - in desperate terms - the LDCs, is how best to ensure basic social needs. The areas of greatest concern are health (and related social aid), pensions, help for the unemployed, and ensuring minimum living standards. Ever-growing dilemmas vary from finding thebasic funds and facilities in the LDCs to selecting the best ways, in terms of efficiency and financing, to organize the large-scale programs in the rich welfare states. Two major issues mainly in the latter relate to the growing demographic ratio of recipients to contributors, and the relative advantages of state and private schemes. The Survey studies all these carefully.

Matthew Bishop, "Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" in The Economist 29 Jan 00(1-22) :-this SURVEY claims that "globalization, accelerated by the Internet, is exposing serious flaws in the world's tax systems[even though]the taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization "might damage tax systems so badly that it could'lead to governments being unable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens for public services' " (5). Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens), plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes, while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possiblereaction: global tax-harmonization agreements; more consumption/environment taxes.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad.[Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto take root and spread[to globe.]Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests[while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense ofhopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playingincreasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth.[This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progresswe need...coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but their main texts/distributions differ.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions...increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus]other extreme/increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainablemanufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force]is good news, but... change/ ambition required will be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/global policy must encourage development/commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigate effects of climate change...G8 can take global lead both inmaking world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8[also]opportunity to agree onwhat most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively withother countries' growing energy needs...to ensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seem inevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.

Alan S.Blinder"Eight Steps to a New Financial Order" Foreign Affairs Vol.78/No.5(Sep/Oct 99):-Aim:minimize the frequency, intensity, contagion of financial crises; above all their impact on innocents.Channels: changes in national practice; IMF reform. Advice:(1)Don't fix your exchange rates. They crumble under speculative attack. Rates pegged to hard currency sometimes justified.(2)Borrow less in foreign currency. Especially risky, if short-term. IMF/governments should discourage.(3)Don't rush to open capital markets. Capital inflow controls slow hot money. Supervise.(4)Follow sound macroeconomic-financial policy. Top:bank supervision/accounting standards. (5) Austerity is not always right medicine. In a world short of aggregate demand(and little inflation or need to defend exchange rates)it may have negative effect.(6)Devote more to protecting innocent bystanders. Don't bail out foreign creditors while local poor drown.(7)Agree on orderly debt settlement procedures. Maybe collective action bond contract clauses, mandatory debt rollover.(8)Prevention is better than cure. Contingent credit lines; graduated ratings.

Christopher S.Bond & Lewis M.Simons "The Forgotten Front:Winning Hearts and Minds in Southeast Asia"(52-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6(Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US [Western?] policymakers can no longer afford to ignore Southeast Asia. Islamic militants pose a threat to stability in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. But rather than relying on miltary power alone to do the job, US should use trade, aid, and education to alleviate poverty in the region and win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asian Muslims". Bond is a Republican Senator from Missouri. Simons s a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. They are the co-authors of The Next Front: Southeast Asia and the Road to Global Peace With Islam.

Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/ No.2 (Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.

John Brademas & Fritz Heimann "Tackling International Corruption: No Longer Taboo" Foreign AffairsVol.77/No.5 (Sep/Oct 98)(17-22):-two members of influential anti-corruption organization, Transparency International, report on activities underway globally to control governmental/ private corruption. Progress results from the convergence of several trends: increased openness of government processes, greater media freedom, and more independent judiciaries, plus an awareness that corruption impedes both democracy and economic development. Recent multilateral events: 1997 Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials; 1996 ICC Rules of Conduct for business; new World Bank active concern with issue(op.cit).

Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun 06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will lastfor decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another [major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".

Keith Bradsher "Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:- "The sleet,bulbous-nosed new bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they represent the start of a 180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction, system scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives, offering alternative to clogged highways and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may... control oil imports, curb fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded train will use only sixth of energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with bus ride, figures are half the energyand a quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost - $15b... - madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down through western Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles... System will start with 19 trains in each direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90 minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need to cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how many people use its somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is developed around these stations and how much tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High - Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed high-speed rail system geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and embarrassing ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins. [I]t represents colossal effort toimprove transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment. [P]roblems that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about being unable to use credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours from Taipei".

Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past. Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Corespondent for New York Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.

Samuel Brittan Capitalism with a Human Face (Aldershot: Edward Elgar Publishing 95):-argues that in the post-Cold War era, capitalism appears victorious over the planned (or command) economies, and the UN system advisors to the Third World have no hesitation about pushing it. Indeed, the Bretton Woods institutions have no choice - even if they had doubts! Brittan, as an Editor of the Financial Times, writes clearly on liberal economics for the non-expert. Good background material on broad global economic trends.

William J.Broad"Giant Leap for Private Industry: Spies in Space" New York Times 13 Oct 99:- described as "one of most significant developments in history of space age" with potential to be "revolutionary" ,Space Imaging Inc., private company owned by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, recently exhibited photograph, taken by Eastman Kodak camera and telescope system, from its own satelliteorbiting at 400 miles that shows details only meter in size. Hailed as world's first private spy satellite,image sharpness reportedly rivals acts of military spy satellites. Pentagon expected to be main customer: such photos can aid detection of countries trying to set off underground nuclear explosions in secret, as well as help geographers, urban planners, etc. Three other companies plan to put similar satellites in orbit in a year, and perhaps dozen may fly in next decade. Photo prices already being quoted; multi-use plus competitionmay keep them low.

Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2 (Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier(World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.

L.Anathea Brooks & Stacy D.VanDeveer edit. Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park MD: Maryland Sea Grant 97):-although focused on the environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, this book is not technical for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes a broad and thoughtful look at every major aspect of environmentalism, usingcoastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, and Nature(environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases); Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge(scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and Institutions(changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics); Approaching Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.

Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).

Lester R.Brown"Feeding Nine Billion" (115-32)in State of the World(1999)(New York: W.W.Norton, 99):-main points: World grain harvests grew from 400m tons in 1900 to nearly 1.9b in 1998, aided by massiveirrigation (40% of food), chemical fertilizers, huge plant-breeding advances, short-stem wheat/rice, hybridcorn - such cropland assets being globally available. Yet 840m people are hungry/malnourished(19,000 children die daily from effects of malnutrition). Other two basic food-supply systems - oceanic fisheries andrangelands - appear to have reached global carrying capacity, and per capita grain production hasdecreased 7% since 1984. Meanwhile the current 6b world population is expected to grow to 9b about 2050, during which period net global harvested area is expected to be almost unchanged, and to continuedropping per capita to 0.07 hectares(1950=0.23). Mounting water scarcity has reduced irrigated area per capita by 6% since 1978, simultaneously lowering fertilizing capacity - and levelling off for lack of further benefit. Remaining route to increased food productivity - plant breeding - could raise drought-, disease-, insect-resistance and salt-tolerance, but now little gain is physiologically possible for wheat, corn and ricein terms of further raising crop yields. It all means that eradication of hunger and malnutrition now may depend heavily on demand-side initiatives: slowing population growth and using grain and water more efficiently.

Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point; Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry; Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses); 5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts; Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise; Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8. Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well (Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Proteir More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain; Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy; Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy: 2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(Second Edition) (Houndmills: Macmillan Press 95):-new edition of seminal work on state system surprisingly retains original 77 text. ItsUN-relevant aim was to determine whether system would/should survive -and alternatives. Concluded very little change was possible or needed. Interest today derives from how much of original argumentundercut by extraordinary changes of past 20 years, particularly constraints on state sovereignty by:globalization of information/manufacture/ finance; new global imperatives/power centers/vacuums; novel capacities/threats. For firm support see Hoffmann(op.cit.).

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).

Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".

Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

Gary Burtless, Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert E. Litan, Robert J. Shapiro, Globaphobia: Confronting Fears about Open Trade(Washington: Brookings Institution/Progressive Policy Institute/ Twentieth Century Fund 98):-major criticisms of global and regional free trade are contradicted skilfully, using fairly non-technical data and arguments. The authors' concern is that while the US economy has been doing well in terms of growth, job creation, inflation and investment, at the same time unskilled industrial workers have faced layoffs and/or stagnant incomes, feeding fears of that this is the direct result of imports from low-wage economies. Statistics prove, however, that such broad structural and technological problems and trade flows are unrelated. Earnings insurance is proposed to reduce protectionism.

Mayra Buvinic and Andrew R. Morrison "Living in a More Violent World" Foreign Policy No.118(Spring 2000):-valuable survey of steeply rising global rate of combat-unrelated violence, its probable causes, likely trends, economic and social costs, and possible control policies. Average global homicide rates, naturally the most complete, and derived from a 34-country sample over various regions, rose from5.82/100,000 in 1980-84 to 8.86/100,000 in 1990-94, a more than 50% increase in a decade(OECD:15%; Latin America:80%; Arab world:112%). Limited victimization (assaults/threats)trends seem similar. Moreover rate of increase appears to be accelerating: latest rates include Latin America 23/100,000; sub-Saharan Africa 40/100,000, with Johannesburg 115/100,000. Causes include: aggressive cultures orupbringing; ineffective justice systems; high ratio in LDCs of persons 18-24(group most inclined to violence)perpetuated by reduced social inhibitions; high population density, anonymity, poverty and urban social disintegration; greater(awareness of)national/local income inequalities through globalization;media emphasis on violence or at least aggression; the increased quantity and availability of drugs and guns. Costs include: significantly lower economic growth through foregone investment, less tourism, reduced productivity, higher security/medical expenses. Policies include: prevention programs throughbetter and focused social care/policing/education, urban regeneration, handgun and alcohol controls. Above all, local initiatives.

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). Very nature of world economy will be affected by such trends - nowhere more than in dominance and global interdependence of knowledge-related activities. Consequently there will almost certainly be much faster increase in(real)value of things exchanged rather than in their physical volume.

Frances Cairncross, "A Survey of Pay: The Best...and the Rest" The Economist 08 May 99(1-20):-withconcern over inflated executive incomes and increasing domestic pay divergence, the Survey not only finds many causes, but also basic changes in the way pay is determined. While most is still set by local markets, global communications/MNCs are creating global rates. English'global role(hence universal premium)and the ecu's creation break down national(pay)boundaries. Within firms, the need to move topstaff or let some work online from places of choice, combined with functional organization (paying staff by role not location), all tend towards global rates. Also, with more jobs now being education- and initiative-intensive, top human capital is in high demand, forcing relative pay increases, plus diverse and variablereward systems(stock options/bonuses)to meet competition and encourage motivation, loyalty, flexibility.More inequality lies ahead.

Frances Cairncross, "A Survey of E-Management: Inside the Machine" The Economist 11 Nov 00(1-40):-while aimed at business, text relevant to development, economics/finance/jobs/ education, globalization, government, HR, law, S&T, many UN roles. "Change has not only become more rapid, but also more complex and more ubiquitous" (5). Behind resulting uncertainty in all forms of management liesInternet/related technologies, whose evolution/impact only just starting. It offers new communicationsand distribution channel, market place, information system, and tool for creating goods and services, all driven by dramatic falls in cost of handling/transmitting information. It produces "almost instant" andpossibly huge productivity gains, at minimal expense for hard- and soft-ware, but demands ten times that investment in new "organizational capital" .Survey analyses: internal communications; links with suppliers/sources and customers/consumers; organizational changes; good e-management. Last needs: 1.Speed;2.Good People;3.Openness;4.Collaboration Skills;5.Discipline;6.Good Communications; 7.Content-Management Skills;8.Customer Focus;9.Knowledge Management;10.Leadership by Example.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/FP Special Report"China Rising: How the Asian Colossus Is Changing Our World" Foreign Policy No.146(Jan/Feb 05):-in fall 04, Carnegie "convened some of world's leading thinkers on China to take stock of political/economic consequences of country's rapid ascent [www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ChinaProgram]. FP asked seven of these experts to weigh in on implications of Middle Kingdom's return to greatness". Jonathan D.Spence"The Once And Future China":-investigates: What of China's past could be a harbinger for its future? Concludes "These are the memories and the territorial histories [including Taiwan] that China has to juggle as it embarks on its myriad new challenges and opportunities". Zbigniew Brzezinski & John J.Mearsheimer engage in Debate on"Clash of the Titans":-Is China more interested in money than missiles? Will US seek to contain China as it once contained Soviet Union? ZB and JM go head-to-head on whether these two great powers are destined to fight it out. Titles of thoughtful sequence: ZB: Make Money, Not War. JM: Better to Be Godzilla than Bambi; i.e.powerful China is likely to try to push US out of Asia. ZB: Nukes Change Everything. JM: Showing the US the Door. ZB: US's Staying Power. JM: It's Not a Pretty Picture. Martin Wolf"Why Is China Growing so Slowly? :-For all its success, China is still not living up to its potential."Do not think China's rapid growth is either extraordinary or a flash in the pan. It is neither. Social and political obstacles to China's rapid growth are considerable. But the opportunity remains enormous. China's economic boom could well be in its middle, not its end." Ashley J.Tellis"A Grand Chessboard" :-Beijing seeks to reassure the world that it isgentle giant; it knows that US is casting a wary eye in its direction."Strategy of emphasizing peaceful ascendancy in word and deed will likely satisfy Chinese interests until it becomes a true rival of US." Homi Kharas"Lifting All Boats":-Why China's great leap is good for the world's poor. China has become the center of a virtuous regional trade cycle."For the developing world, it's something to emulate, not fear." Minx Pei "Dangerous Denials":-China's economy is blinding the world to its political risks. "The only thing certain about China's... risks is that they are on the rise." The Economist"China: No Sign of a Landing"29 Jan 05(39-40):-supports FP views by emphasizing that "China... continues to grow at breakneck speed". National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had declared that economy grew by 9.5% in 2004,"its fastest clip in eight years", and probably an accurate or low figure for a change. NBS in fact "put a brave face on the figure, attributing quickened pace of growth... to stronger than expected performances in agriculture and services - the parts of economy China still wants to boost... Encouragingly, government's cooling measures... do not appear to have affected consumer spending. Growth of retail sales of consumer goods remained strong during the year...This offers some hope investment can be curbed without a sharp slowdown... First results from the census are due in August, and complete data by the middle of next year. Whatever they reveal, it is unlikely to be that China has been wildly overstating its GDP growth figures". Jim Yardley "Fearing Future, China Starts to Give Girls Their Due"New York Times 31 Jan 05:-reports on an important cultural concern. "Government credits [so-called one-child] policy for sharply slowing China's population growth [300m less], but critics say it is a major reason many families now use prenatal scans and selective abortions to make certain their child is a boy. [Hence] reversing birth imbalance between boys and girlscannot be postponed... Nationwide ratio has reached 119 boys for every 100 girls. [I]n a few decades China could have up to 40m bachelors unable to find mates. [Reason:] most Chinese parents, particularly in rural areas, prefer sons. [A]ll parents, worried about their old age, know Chinese tradition holds that a son must care for his parents. A daughter, on the other hand, marries into husband's family. In countryside, where no real social safety net, a son is considered equivalent of pension. [Recently,] fiscal incentives [are] intended to give monetary value to girls and, by doing so, reduce incentive to abort them. Even so, limited scope of program has reduced its impact. [Also,] attitudes hard to change in male-dominated China. Joseph Kahn "China to Cut Taxes on Farmers and Raise Their Subsidies"NYT 03 Feb 05:-"Chinese officials are promising to reduce taxes on peasants and increase farm subsidies to improve the lot of 800m rural residents left behind in the fast-growing economy. Measures... are intended to slow the surging wealth gap between urban/rural residents, major source of social discontent and perhaps the greatest challenge for governing Communist Party... Last year average urban income 3.2 times as much as average rural income, one of the biggest urban-rural divides in the world. [G]overnment has injected hundreds of billions of dollars into developing urban coastal areas while maintaining tight controls over farmland and peasants to ensure steady supplies of grain and surplus labor. [O]ne potential key lies in creating a market for farmland that resembles the one for urban land".

Thomas Carothers"Civil Society: Think Again"Foreign Policy No.117(Winter 99-00):-contends "civil society's worth as a concept has soared far beyond its demonstrated returns. [Original 18th century ideawas a] domain parallel to but separate from the state... where citizens associate according to their own interests and wishes". It revived in 1990s as dictatorships conceded, political parties ossified,government retracted, technology made grouping easy/powerful. Broader than do-good NGOs, the concept spans all interest groups outside state and market. The ends of such groups can be good, bad, bizarre, and conflicting. They can strengthen or weaken both democracy and dictatorship(NAACP; NRA; Hitler Youth; Solidarity), and strong civil society not essential for democracy or economic success(Japan); it can hurt(Latin American unions). Civil society and the state are not rivals but complementary, and many groups get state funds. "Global" civil society may be ancient, artificial, even hateful.

Edward Carr, "The Sea: A Second Fall" in The Economist 23 May 98(1-18):-broad if necessarily concise Survey of all major trends and problems relating to the oceans - today and anticipated. Among varied subjects covered are: increases in its human exploitation and our dependency; end of "unlimited" utilization, and last great hunting-gathering culture; need for same sort of global and state controls as exist for land use; vast areas of unknown living and mineral resources; pollution(man-made and natural), algal blooms, coast and reef destruction; sealife and its nutrients; (over)fishing: new expansion areas and controls(world's fishingfleet is 53% superfluous); ocean trends and currents(El Nino, global warming); shipping(see Griffiths et al. - op.cit); new lessons to be learned.

Edward Carr, "The Koreas: Yesterday's War, Tomorrow's Peace" in The Economist 10 Jul 99(1-16):-millennium ended with probably the greatest single threat to global peace and security being danger ofconflict between Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea(North Korea)and Republic of Korea(South Korea). While Survey concentrates on economic structures and prospects, it shows danger is serious in every dimension: military, geographic, strategic, diplomatic, political, ideological, developmental, historic, educational...However, Carr argues, North "is inherently unstable. Economy is collapsing and needs radical reform. There is despondency and latent unrest. Corruption is rife.[M]ilitary...is far larger...thanthe country can afford" (14). Hence it must transform somehow. Yet while South is 12 times richer per capita, it could not absorb a ruin; so it is optimum that they come together gradually. By 15 Apr 00, so much of global interest was happening in Korea that Economist ran a major essay as update: "The Two Koreas: Mr. Kim, Meet Mr. Kim" (21-4). In spite of agreement by North to hold an unprecedented bilateral summit,essay's tone seems even more cautious. Korean problems also produced two excellent New York Timesarticles. Howard W. French, "North Korea Shyly Courts Capitalism" 30 Apr 00:-claims that there has recently been a major change in North's economic policy. It accepts major high-tech investment, mainly from South Korea and China, and is starting to look like its big neighbour with complexes of efficient, private assembly plants coexisting with ancient, moribund state heavy industry. Calvin Sims, "Behind Korea Meeting, a Million Troops in a Standoff" 04 May 00:-reports on ever-tense "demilitarized zone" dividing well over 1m troops on constant alert and equipped with advanced military hardware. Not only are small but deadly clashes normal, but North has just deployed many long-range multiple-rocket launchers and self-propelled guns near zone, and is now believed to possess thousands of tons of chemical and biological weapons - besides its infamous missiles. All this in spite of new North-South contacts and "improved" relations.

Geoffrey Carr, "The Alchemists: A Survey of the Pharmaceutical Industry" in The Economist 21 Feb 98(1-18):-Survey claims scientific/technological revolution is sweeping this industry. It describes new technologies being developed and used, examines huge present/probable future changes in industry'sstructure, and asks what this could mean for future health care. Anticipates:(1)increase in range of diseases treatable with drugs; (2)increase in drug precision and effectiveness;(3)increase in ability to anticipate disease. Each trend is accelerated by new genetic insights and will have major global impact. But terriblerich-poor economic issue of drug patents/costs: unprobed.

Iain Carson "Meet the Global Factory: A Survey of Manufacturing" The Economist 20 Jun 98:-two facts pressed re current global transformation of manufacturing. Similar in scale and importance to agriculture's plunge as % of GDP and employment(44% of US labor in 1900; 3% today);in 1970-95 its % of OECD employment fell 28 to 17; 1960-95 its % of GDP 30 to 20. Now replaced by services, themselves a key element in manufacturing, where OECD has big lead. Manufacturing is meanwhile becoming a lean and efficient process from beginning to end. Globally integrated, dispersed, mobile to reflect comparative advantage/customer tastes: acts as engine of globalization.

Iain Carson, "A Survey of Air Travel: The Sky's the Limit" The Economist 10 Mar 01(1-23):-describing civil aviation's recent business history and likely trends, also offers considerable key up-to-date information regarding global role and critical future of a huge, world-shrinking industry. Current situation is strangely mixed: airline profits are substantial yet consumers pay 70% less per passenger mile than 20 years ago; revenue per seat declining by 2% a year, yet customer dissatisfaction has reached new peaks(demand exceeds infrastructure)! In 2000, passenger journeys by air exceeded 1.6b(9m 1945);40%of world-manufactured exports by value travelled by air. Omni-route air networks demand created global airline "alliances" that may soon consolidate into three or four. Meanwhile Internet can identify optimal routes, let consumers "shop around" to keep ticket prices competitive, and eliminate all "paper" forms;computers offer a satellite-based system of air traffic control, doubling its capacity.

Fadhil J.Chalabi"OPEC: An Obituary"Foreign Policy Number 109 (Winter 1997-98). - in spite of its title, this essay constitutes an invaluable summary of the major trends in the oil and energy industry from before the establishment and impact of OPEC to the present. The conclusion is: "Gone are the days of `oil nationalism'and the `oil weapon'. The catchwords of today's global marketplace are `integration'and `interdependence'... [The] oil compan[y club has been] replaced by a hypercompetitive market that relies on the free flow of information and high technology to remain viable." For more history, see Adelman op. cit.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s), (un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

Walter J. Clemens, Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do IndividualsCount?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?CanSwords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners? (8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity? (11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South Meets North(13)Transitions: CanSecond World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham or Revolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

Walter J.Clemens Jr, "From AD 2000 to AD 2025: Six Alternative Futures" International Journal Vol.LIV/No.2 (Spring 99):-interesting/balanced exercise in futurology using relatively conservative global views to create believable: (1)Unipolar Stability: benign US hegemony extends most current/surprise-free globaltrends.(2) Fragmented Chaos: environmental-pandemic-autarkic fears come true; global injustice provokesanger/violence; WMDs proliferate; China turns unstable; all reflecting a low level of global cooperation.(3)Hegemon Challenged: China becomes powerful bully; either intimidates or is faced down by US.(4)Bipolar Cooperation: China turns democratic/cooperative.(5)Multipolar Cooperation: Most countries turn democratic/prosperous.(6)Global Governance Without World Government: trans-national civil society andgovernments share powers at many levels. Interdependence may force the last.

Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat(Ebury Press 04):-book not yet available here but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04 "The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet" (83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce;greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocricy, ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor...As man's appetite for fish has grown, sohas ability to catch them. Modern gadgets...enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before.[But]signs of growing scarcity everywhere[,and]most efforts to manage fish stocks or controloverfishing failed.[Hence fishermen]moved on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited.[D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though some kinds of fish...can nowbe farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or...mining.[I]nternational agencies monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail.[Lots of unneeded]'by-catch'generally flung back into sea. Thewaste is appalling; the cruelty equally vile. Trawlers...wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out inClover's excellent book...He exposes follies of fishermen, politicians and celebrity chefs[and]anyone withaccess to common resource has interest in over-exploiting it...In time farming may help" [but also morecareful supervision and management].

Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic] prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".

Isobel Coleman"The Payoff From Women's Rights"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun 04):- three points strongly: women's full rights critically important not just for women alone but for entire societies; most negative women's areas of world are both curbed by old-style religion/ culture and blocked economically;US can and must do more to improve this. First point:" Over past decade, significant research has demonstrated what many have known for long time: women critical to economic development, active civil society, good governance -especially in developing countries. Focus on women often best way reduce birth rates/child mortality; improve health/nutrition/education; stem spread of HIV/AIDS; build robust/self- sustaining community organizations; encourage grassroots democracy... Women's status advanced in many countries: gender gaps in infant mortality rates/calorie consumption/school enrollment/ literacylevels/access to health care/political participation narrowed steadily. These... benefited society at large/improving living standards/increasing social entrepreneurship/ attracting foreign direct investment." Second point: "[S]ignificant gender disparities continues to exist, and in some cases to grow, in three regions: southern Asia, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa. [C]onstraints on women living in areas[are] conservative/ patriarchal practices, often reinforced by religious values." Third point: "[Deep tensions] between religious extremists and those with more moderate/progressive views...evident in Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Afghanistan...to lesser extent Nigeria/Pakistan/Indonesia. Resolution critical to progress...,for those that suppress women likely to stagnate economically/fail to develop democratic institutions/become more prone to extremism." So urges US to intensify women's rights much more.

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Commitment to Development Index(CDI), "Ranking the Rich: 2004"in Foreign Policy(Co-Edited with Center for Global Development(CGD))No.142(May/Jun 04)(46-56):-CDI in 2003 was a ranking of rich nationsaccording to how their policies help or hinder social and economic development in poor countries. In2004, CGD/FP unveils...CDI that brings into sharper focus which governments lead the global community in the challenge of development. "Why should rich countries care about development in poor ones? For reasons both pragmatic and principled. In a globalizing world, rich countries cannot insulate themselves from insecurity. Poverty and weak institutions are breeding grounds for public-health crises, violence, and economic volatility. Fairness is another reason to care. No human being should be denied the chance to live free of poverty and oppression, or to enjoy a basic standard of education and health. Yet richnations' current trade policies, for example, place disproportionate burdens on poor countries, discriminatingagainst their agricultural goods in particular. Finally, the countries ranked in the CDI are all democracies that preach concern for human dignity and economic opportunity within their own borders. The index measureswhether their policies promote these same values in the rest of the world" .

Gordon Conway, The Doubly Green Revolution: Food for All in the 21st Century (London: Penguin Books, 1997):-an expert survey of food problems and potential in developing countries. It offers specific advice oneradicating hunger and rapidly reducing the 750m undernourished(as pledged at the World Food Summit)through a complex but realistic second Green Revolution. Topics: global hunger and poverty; 2020 prospects; specific needs; the Green Revolution's successes; where it missed the poor; pollution from pesticides and fertilizer; production trends and priorities; biotechnology; sustainable agriculture; farmers' input; pest control; nutrients; soil and water management; other resources; food security.

Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future". Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Richard Cookson"A Survey of International Banking: On a Wing and a Prayer" (1-38)The Economist 17 Apr 99:-an insiders' specialized study of a major business facing diverse problems and basic adjustment, as the world's financial system undergoes rapid change. Non-specialists will find its conclusion(36-8)relevant to many global issues. It argues that "the world's banking systems are in less good shape than many suppose. Their core business is being whittled away by capital markets...while shareholders are demanding better returns. To achieve them, banks have increased their revenues by lending to less creditworthycompanies, whether at home or in emerging markets...[,by entering new business, by merging and bycutting costs]. Many lost heavily in emerging markets, their risky assets fell, their information wasinadequate. A global recession, given current world overcapacity, could trigger deflation - and banking crises?

Daryl Copeland, "Globalization, Enterprise, and Governance: What Does a Changing World Mean for Canada?" in International Journal Vol.LIII/No.1(Winter 1997-8):-article takes a worldwide approach despite its title. This succinct but broad survey of globalization covers both its rationale and effects: borderless business-first priorities; technological shrinking of time, space, and ignorance; job insecurity and divergence; cultural convergence and ethnic reaction; structural standardization; uncontrolled finance. The author fears the end of the welfare state. Mark S. Worrall, "State and Society in the Age of the Global Economy" in Vol.LIII/No.3(Summer 1998)offers a friendly but more optimistic response. In his view " the state has been forced to share its powers with suprastate, substate, and nonstate actors" (579). While "not the driving force behind globalization[,state]remains the single possible architect of the post-cold war order" (580). This in turn must include international institutions capable of addressing the new global issues. Two good analyses.

David Cortright & George A. Lopez edit. Economic Sanctions: Panacea or Peacebuilding in a Post-Cold War World? (Boulder: Westview Press 95):-useful collection analysing value of sanctions from many points of view. Divided into sections on sanctions' : history/experience; assessment from legal/ethical/practical standpoints; case studies including: Iraq(pro/con)/ Yugoslavia(very critical)/Haiti/South Africa.Recommendations:set UN Council on Sanctions; undertake new research topics: should sanctions be immediate, comprehensive, harsh and multilateral, or graduated; determine value of focused financial actions, both positive and negative; better monitoring.

David Cortright edit. The Price of Peace: Incentives and International Conflict Prevention (Lanham:Rowman & Littlefield 97):-rarely researched topic: value and optimum methods of using positive incentives rather than coercion of any type to achieve diplomatic ends. Many examples -mostly successful and many involving UN- offered: Baltic States/Russia; Bosnia; Czechoslovakia; India/Pakistan; Malawi; North Korea; PRC; Salvador; South Africa(failed); South Korea; Sweden; Taiwan; West Bank/Gaza; Uganda; Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. Includes very good wrap-up essay.

Robert Cottrell, "A Work in Progress: A Survey of Europe" The Economist 23 Oct 99(1-18):-key trends inera of rapid globalization include:(1)increasing constraints on economic, financial, cultural autonomy of nation-states; (2)growing intrusions into traditionally absolute domestic sovereignty, under security/human rights pressures; (3)institutional means by which state of international anarchy being perceptibly contained. Since Europe has moved furthest/most deliberately in following all three, this general, non-technical survey of main challenges facing European Union and their likely outcomes, has immense global relevance. After setting scene historically, survey discusses in turn "five recent fundamental shifts in structure of post-war Europe and its international relations":(1)inversion of Franco-German balance in favour of Germany; (2)emergence of strong sense leading EU countries should have capacity for collective military action separable from NATO/US;(3)introduction of new common currency;(4)replacement of power of Eurocrats by Councils directly representing national governments;(5)planned EU enlargement.

Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of purpose/confidence in itself."

Robert W.Cox, Review of Susan Strange, The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 96)(op.cit.)in International Journal Vol.LII/No.2(Spring 97):-favourable report on book of great relevance to future of global society and relations. Cox sees Strange's aim less as trying to describe growing limitations on state power than as identifying what constitutes power, where and why it is shifting, and implications. [Strange lays particular emphasis on power of global finances.] For Cox's own, related, theoretical views see: Production, Power, and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of History(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 87)Theme and Part 1(1-15); Part 2(105-267).

A.W.Cragg"Business, Globalization, and the Logic and Ethics of Corruption"International Journal Vol.LIII/No.4 (Autumn 98):-this essay focuses on the corrosive ethics of corruption, a subject of direct concern to UN global activities. In addition, it specifically identifies a large number of very practical economic and administrative disadvantages for both businesses and governments in condoning bribery, "but only in Third World countries where it is part of the local milieu". Widespread assumptions: (1)that there is little or no corruption within industrialized countries; (2)that much of the Third World must or can "live by" corruption; and (3)it is possible for MNCs to ensure that their employees can limit their corruption to their activities abroad "in self defence" , are wrong and pernicious.

Gwyneth Cravens Power To Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy(New York: Alfred A.Knopf 07):-valuable source at a time when nuclear power once again gaining global popularity in light of climate change threats from fossil fuel emissions. While text is 450pp long and partly technological/scientific, it appears carefully and honestly drafted, and able to be used "here-and-there" as a source. Editorial summary is itself impressive, e.g."...On the nuclear tour, Cravens converses with scientists from many disciplines, public health and counterterrorism experts, engineers, and researchers who study both the harmful and benign effects of radiation; she watches remote-controlled robotic manipulators unbolt a canister of spent uranium fuel inside a 'hot cell' bathed in eerie orange light; observes the dark haze from fossil-fuel combustion obscuring once-pristine... skies and the leaky, rusted pipes and sooty puddles in a coal-fired plant; glimpses rainbows made by salt dust in the deep subterranean corridors of a working nuclear waste repository. She refutes the major arguments against nuclear power one by one... And she demonstrates how, time and again, political fearmongering and misperceptions about risk have trumped science in the dialogue about the feasibility of nuclear energy. In the end, we see how nuclear power has been successfully and economically harnessed... around the globe to become the single largest displacer of greenhouse gases, and how its overall risks and benefits compare with those of other energy sources. [A]n eloquent, convincing argument for nuclear power as a safe energy source and an essential deterrent to global warming".

Barbara Crossette, "Rethinking Population at a Global Milestone" ;Nicholas Wade, "Now, You Can Have 5,999,999,999 Friends" ; "Why Malthus Was Wrong" New York Times 19 Sep 99:-article and notes offeringfacts/ideas on world population. UN says pass 6 billion about 12 Oct 99; growth rate: 1.31%(about 80m)/year or 148 people/ minute; life expectancy: 65 years; current projected world total in 2050: 8.9 billion. Regarding Malthus, substantive point is that innovation has enabled food production to increasemuch faster than was anticipated in 1798. (While population growth cannot produce global famine, seriouslocal food/people imbalances cause 40 million a year to die of hunger.) Article compares population problems/policies of autocratic China(1.2b)and democratic India(1b, but faster growth). China more successful improving human conditions, but many factors affect policy choice/impact.

Stewart Crysdale, Alan J. C. King, & Nancy Mandell, On Their Own? Making the Transition from School to Work in the Information Age(Montreal & Kingston: McGill-Queen's Univ. Press 99):- rapid labor market changes are now global. This also demands rapid change in educational content and methods. This book - basically sociology - examines the resulting changes in the education-work transition. With education/work content undergoing their own transformations, it focuses on: why are so many young people having suchdifficulty finding permanent jobs in a growing economy; and what can be done to ease their transition into work? The conclusion is key factors are: education attained(increasingly need post-secondary), present job level(look ahead), job goal(realistic),innovative career planning(expect regular retraining), stable employment (can be learned), intrinsic satisfaction(can be taught),on-the-job training(eases transition/selection).

David Crystal, English as a Global Language(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 97):-carefully- worded description of English'present status, controversies and prospects by a renowned linguistics expert. While noting it is spoken well by about 1.5 billion people and is expanding rapidly in use/influence, author neither sees nor advocates English becoming more than essential, common second language for most of world. For more on English'history and geographical variations, see Robert McCrum, William Cran, and Robert MacNeil, The Story of English(New York: E. Sifton-Viking 86). Highly informative but lighter look at English, warts and all, is Bill Bryson, Mother Tongue: The English Language(London: Penguin 91). Economist 24 Feb 01 "The English Language Predominates: ...Still on the March" (50-1)reports survey of linguistic skills of EU citizens after both expanding EU and globalization have increasingly demanded and rewarded inter-cultural communication. It found that 56% claimed to be able to speak English(16% use it as their mother tongue),followed by French at 34% and German at 33%. Moreover 69% felt that "everyone should speak English" (including 66% of French; only 70% of outstandingly monolingual British!). Companion article onGermany's threat from creeping Denglisch cites German culture minister: "[G]lobalized world needs an international language. In business, science and technology, English already serves that function; to oppose its use is to deny reality". Languages generally/how learned, by Ingram or Pinker(op.cit.)note a similar trend.

Roy Culpeper & Caroline Pestieau edit., Development and Global Governance(Ottawa: North-South Institute/ International Development Research Centre, 1996):-this is the proceedings of a conference of 30 international experts held in Ottawa in 1995 to discuss the interrelationships between development and the governance of the international economy. The agenda related to a coming G-7 Summit on "Reform of the International Financial Institutions" . The meeting drew three main conclusions: (1)instability or uncertainty in exchange rates/capital markets call for strengthening IFIs (IMF with SDRs); (2) the IFIs' outdated methods of governance/mandates demand they be given effective political-level direction(IMF Interim Committee); (3)development aid is inadequate/declining so ODA/ official flows need more careful management with priority given to the world's poorest, to collective world goals, and to good performersamong recipients.

Robert A.Dahl, On Democracy(New Haven: Yale Univ. Press 98):-carefully thought out and well-writtenintroduction to a complex and now globally-relevant subject. It asks and expertly responds to: Where/How Did Democracy Develop?; What is democracy?;Why democracy?; Why Political Equality?;WhatInstitutions?:Scale Factors, Parties, Constitutions, Electoral Systems; What Conditions FavorDemocracy?; Does Market-Capitalism Favor/Harm Democracy? Last Chapter, on Future of Democracy, is most relevant to this bibliography. It concludes: 20th Century was "era of unparalleled triumph" (180)for democracy, but its changing problems in evolutionary times make its future dependent on their solution. Market-capitalism will continue, perhaps with its nature to create inequality softened. Globalizing trends will remain hard to democratize. Human rights for disadvantaged will increase. Migration will raise cultural diversity in "old" democracies. Civic education in complex societies must expand.

Herman E.Daly & John B.Cobb For the Common Good: Redirecting the Economy toward Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future :Second Edition, Updated and Expanded (Boston: Beacon Press 94):-unfortunately presents: doubtful, outdated and US-focused analyses (a trade deficit brings national ruin; all postindustrial cyber- and service-based evolution is ignored); extreme solutions (isolationism, a very high level of decentralization, [unilateral] pacifism); nostalgia (family farms, semi-autarkic regions). The book's pro-UN attitude is not driven by a desire to acknowledge global imperatives but to opt out of global affairs. The most credible arguments made relate to furthering an environmentally-sound, sustainable economy, using a restructured "externalities" -inclusive GNP. For some updated free-trade counter- arguments see: The Economist 19 Jul 97 (68).

Anthony DePalma "The'Slippery Slope'of Patenting Farmers' Crops" New York Times 24 May 00:-as noted elsewhere, much of controversy over genetically modified organisms(GMO)derives from their high costs in R&D and consequent concern of biotechnology companies to ensure "adequate returns" through patents(or intellectual property rights(IPRs); see Paarlberg)relating to their products. Most infamous patent defenses were "terminator genes" in cereal seeds that could not reproduce, and thus prevented re-seeding(Economist 9 Oct 99).This ensured annual seed purchases -and prohibitive costs in Third World. DePalma reports CIMMYT, Green Revolution's famous non-profit International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico, though founded to make high-yield products available free to Third World,has had to start patenting its work as defensive tactic to block attempts by others to patent its discoveries and thus keep small farmers from using them. Before companies/countries contribute to CIMMYT's research, they also require patents in own self-defense. Consolation: reproductive genes will be included in seeds distributed in Third World. Another GMO patent-related development reported in DePalma/Simon Romero "Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets, and Brazil May Be Next" NYT 16 May. US, Brazil, Argentinatogether grow 80% of world's 157m tonnes of soybeans annually, but have different rules for GM varieties. In US several conditions must be met: for Monsanto, farmers pay fee for each bag of seed, agree not to save seed for following year ( "terminator" seeds were dropped after outcry)and accept inspections if claim to have stopped using seed. In Argentina, where perhaps 90% of soybean crop genetically altered, but its patents not recognized, effectively no rules. In Brazil, use of altered varieties not(yet)legal, but clearly smuggled in; to 30% of soybeans may already be uncontrolled GMO. "Global regulatory mechanism" obviously needed. Meanwhile, US regulations tightened further. Associated Press reported 03 May "F.D.A. Announces New Steps for Regulation of Biotech Food" according to which US Food and Drug Administration will require biotech companies to notify it at least four months before releasing "new genetically engineered ingredients for food and animal feed" and to provide their research data. FDA will also set" truthful and informative" standards for food processors wanting to label products made with/without such ingredients. Also, mainly response to new consumer concerns, North American retailfood industry/exporters facing novel problems in separating out GM products, because of explosive increase in use/saving. Some major food companies stopped sales of selected GM-based products,according to David Barboza in "Modified Foods Put Companies in a Quandary" NYT 03 Jun. However none has found it feasible to abandon biotech ingredients entirely, since about 70% of US grocery-store food may have been made with genetically altered crops. Related dilemma arisen in Europe. Donald G. McNeil Jr. "Anxiety on Genetically Altered Seed Spreads in Europe" NYT 20 May, reports on divergent reactionsof British, French, Swedish governments on discovering tiny amount in one seed variety in order of long-planted Canadian canola had inadvertently carried genetically-modified trait.

Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.

Claudia H.Deutsch "Unlikely Allies Join With the United Nations" New York Times 10 Dec 99:- "Across the world, huge companies that once shrugged off United Nations as worthy, if often ineffectually bureaucratic, do-good agency, now viewing it as valuable partner." Cites many cases of MNC-UN collaboration/usefulness to business, UN/countries getting aid. MNCs increasingly realize UN/UNDP open doors, act as valuable buffer with officials, open new markets. More general cooperation(e.g. human rights/entrepreneurship training)may help promote stability in countries with civil unrest, improve local business technique/experience, create bridges to communities. UN, for its part, gets part of and influenceon vast pool of FDI, ensures access to unique expertise and resources; yet, by not promoting specific companies, guards its neutrality and stimulates competition.

Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.

Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.

Larry Diamond"The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State"(36-48) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "After decades of historic gains, the world has slipped into a democratic recession. Predatory states are on the rise, threatening both nascent and established democracies throughout the world. But this trend can be reversed with the development of good governance and strict accountability, and the help of conditional aid from the West". Author is Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution and Co-Editor of Journal of Democracy. Essay is adapted from his new book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (Times Books 08).

Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/ objective look at globalized world production, trade, financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies, individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history, nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment; different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, serviceindustries; effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.

Wendy Dobson"Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis"International Journal Vol.LIV/No.3 (Summer 99):-essay pushes reforms of both the global financial system and vulnerable emerging economies, noting that the system has already been made safer by improved financial market operations, and strategies to help such economies integrate into it. "The challenge is to balance the obvious benefits of financialliberalization and open markets with the risks of possible financial instability" (376),and to keep financial and other reform issues separate. The global market should evaluate risks as good national markets do,reduce crises by better risk management, and strengthen the IMF ability to provide liquidity on terms involving best-practice incentives. Parallel national reforms should include avoiding favour for short-term capital, maybe adding capital inflow taxes, strengthening financial institutions, and linking the currencyto a major one.

David Dollar & Lant Pritchett Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-this World Bank Policy Research Report described by The Economist 14 Nov 98(88)as henceforth "the book on foreign aid." Drawing on new research material/long-term surveys, ODA has been "highly effective, totally ineffective, and everything in between" (2).Secret is good governance(for instance in state rebuilding):(1)financial aid really works only in good policy environment;(2)truly wanted improvements in Third World economic institutions/policies key to "quantum leap" in poverty reduction;(3)aid can then complement FDI;(4)value of aid is knowledge that strengthens good policy(most financefungible);(5)active civil society helps lot;(6)in most distorted environments, donors should focus on good advice(particularly to any reformers), not money - presumably extremely important in failed or post-conflict states. Best aid investment is very poor but well-managed countries.

David Dollar & Aart Kraay, Growth is Good for the Poor(major and seminal World Bank paper is downloadable from www.worldbank.org/research/growth/absddolakray.htm)reviewed in The Economist 27 May 00 "Economics Focus: Growth is Good" (82):-while there has long been debate about reality, timing, size of any "trickle-down" effect for poor if any country as a whole gets richer, one recent criticism of globalization is that while may make the rich richer, it widens divergence between rich and poor, both between and within countries. Paper, drawn from data on 80 countries over 40 years, makes a number of surprising discoveries:(1)Economic growth raises incomes of poor about as it raises income of everybody else, with very little variation, and at same time.(2) "Kuznets" theory that intra-country inequality increases in early stages of development, then falls later, is not true; timewise, incomes change together.(3)In crises, poor do not suffer bigger falls in income than rich(although they suffer more from equal percentage drop).(4)Globalized world growth does not benefit only rich; rule(1)applied both before and after globalization.(5)Globalization does not increase intra-country inequality; all ships rise with tide.(6)Rule of law, strong property rights, democracy and primary education do not affect incomedistribution, although growth benefits. (7)Cutting inflation or government spending both raise growth andimprove distribution.(8)Increased "social spending" , targeted on poor, has no effect on either growth or distribution.

Paul Doremus et al. The Myth of the Global Corporation(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press 98):- tests structural and strategic convergence of MNCs(US/Germany/Japan). It finds "enduring diversity...in corporate governance...long-term..financing...national innovation and investment systems" (138). MNCs do most R&D at home; major differences exist in composition and technical activities of foreign affiliates. FDI and intrafirm trade practices consistently diverge. Hence "national institutions and ideologies shape corporate structure" (139)and policies, in spite of increasing global openness and integration. MNCs "createno automatic...mechanisms for regime formation" (145). As domestic power shifts, it may be concentrated globally. "Given scope, nationalist tendencies inherent in[economic]policies that governments...pursue could become more...dangerous" (148).More effective commercial diplomacy(WTO)required.

A.Walter Dorn edit. World Order for a New Millennium: Political, Cultural and Spiritual Approaches to Building Peace(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-selected conference statements with diverse speakers, sochapters vary by viewpoint/ideals, plus topic.Part I.Political and Institutional Approaches:Evolution ofWorld Order(conceptions (Anatol Rapoport);international law history;disarmament compliance;corporatecapitalism and/or market socialism; order by trade/investment decree);Military(Cold War nuclear mishaps;decline of major wars;Third World militarization); United Nations(world challenges(text inINTRODUCTION, with "institutional" material added); recent UN environment agreements; monitoring UN enforcement(UNSCOM); International Criminal Court; realistic UN reforms). Part II.Cultural and Spiritual Approaches: Developing a Culture of Peace(coordinating official/non-official diplomacy;civil society platforms; relevant UNESCO appeals;education of ethics);Spiritual Dimensions(2 Christian views, Jewish view, 2 Buddhist views, First Nations view, syncretistic view, Baha'i view, UN role). Declaration.

John J. Dowdy, "Winners and Losers in the Arms Industry Downturn" Foreign Policy Number 107(Summer 97):-valuable survey, not only of post-Cold War trends in scale and export trade of arms industry in US, Europe, Russia, but also effects on mergers/employment. FP by Solomon M. Karmel "The Chinese Military's Hunt for Profits" , covers PLA/PRC well. Also Survey "The Global Defence Industry" The Economist 14 Jun 97; update 12 Dec 98(23-6).

Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.

Peter F.Drucker"The Changed World Economy" Foreign Affairs 64(Spring 86)(768-91):-although Drucker perhaps best known as a management guru, this very broad view has been described as seminal in that itsimply explained totally new characteristics of post-industrial global economy: borders disappear, industry's basic structure and inputs change, knowledge is key. Examples: importance of services has increased relative to manufacturing, where in turn labour/raw materials input declined relative to capital. This has a direct effect on labour - and commodity-dependent LDCs. World demand for many commoditieshas reduced by development of synthetics/substitutes.

Peter F.DruckerPost-Capitalist Society(New York: HarperCollins 93):-one of Drucker's more recent books on "economics", which actually looks broadly at global history, society and politics. Main point isdominance of knowledge, and the immense impact of this fact on all human activities(cf. Toffler 1990 op.cit.). Drucker's The New Realities: In Government and Politics, In Economics and Business, In Society and World View (New York: Harper & Row 89)also took broad view, but was limited by having to anticipateeffect of changes in USSR.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known ascrusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion".Other elements are described: the serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis andrecommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

Celia W.Dugger"Overfarming African Land Is Worsening Hunger Crisis"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"The degradation of farmland across sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated at an ominous rate over past decade, deepening hunger crisis that already afflicts more than 240m Africans, according to a study released [30 Mar].Three quarters of Africa's farmland severely depleted of basic nutrients needed to grow crops, compared with 40% just a decade ago, study found. African farmers can afford only fraction of fertilizers needed to replenish their increasingly barren fields. Traditionally, farmers cleared land, grew crops for a few harvests, then let fields lie fallow for 10 or 15 years to rejuvenate as they moved on to clear more land... But as they try to feed rapidly growing population, farmers instead grow crop after crop, sapping soil's fertility.'Topsoil is blown away by wind and washed away by rains' , said president International Fertilizer Development Center, nonprofit agricultural aid organization which produced study. If this process continues unabated, crop yields in Africa will fall as much as 30% in next 15 years, even as region'spopulation continues to grow rapidly... Africa... likely to face more frequent famines and become evermore dependent on food aid/imports. Farmers... increasingly clearing forests as well as savannas...Already, farmland in Africa yields less than a third amount of grain of that in Asia and Latin America... 'Wemust feed our soils' , said Nigeria's president... Jun meeting on Africa's fertilizer needs expected to drawleading experts... as well as donors. Foreign aid aimed at improving agricultural productivity in Africadeclined sharply in 1990's and has begun to recover only in recent years. About two-thirds of Africa's750m people depend on agriculture for income/employment. Fertilizer... far too expensive for Africa's small and often impoverished farmers - costs two to six times world average. African farmers use less than 10% as much as Asian farmers do. Lowering price no simple task... Roads make transportation difficult/costly... Green revolution to Africa would require: functioning road network/credit for farmers/ extension agents to teach new methods/ better irrigation/ retailers to sell fertilizers/ improved seed varieties... Would also mean combating corruption". Wealthiest countries have pledged to increase aid to Africa.

Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and broad publications being written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The widely-known author of this book, however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly, even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a number of the great powers, climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats' to its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant probability of wars, including even nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover). The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible and worrisome scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in a region suffering from the experience of climate change. The other is the author's carefully quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008 personal interviews.

Gregg Easterbrook A Moment on the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism(New York: Penguin 95):- environmentalist concerned with rate of population growth etc. nevertheless argues: those who overstate likelihood, scale or imminence of eco-disaster will ultimately hurt their own case. For somewhat tongue-in-cheek argument that doom scenarios come in predictable cycles, plus Simon/Club of Rome debate(Meadows op.cit.)see "Environmental Scares" The Economist 20 Dec 97(19-21).For later/more objective books on history of man's effect on environment, and related US political developmentsrespectively, favourable Reviews in Economist 18 Nov 00 "The Environment: Earth Shattering" (101-2).Books: John R. McNeill Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World(New York: Norton 00);Philip Shabecoff Earth Rising: American Environmentalism in the 21st Century(New York: Island Press 00).Both expect major eco-activity now.

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

The Economist 14 Mar 98 (71): "Moonrakers: Who Own the Moon?".-the discovery of water on the moonmakes its exploitation much more feasible, and revives the issue of ownership. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty states the moon belongs to all mankind, but is legally vague. An attempt in 1979 to draft a Moon Agreementusing the same approach as the LOS seabed principles failed. Commercial options are already under study in the US.

The Economist 28 Mar 98 "At Last, a Market for Energy" (17-18); "Oil Shocked" (57-58); "The Electricity Business: Power to the People" (61-63):-articles deal with basic changes taking place in global energy sector, particularly electricity and oil, because of new consumption and production trends(sources, types and scales), new ownership and market structures, and new or imminent technology. Useful insights into rapidly-evolving industry.

The Economist 06 Jun 98:"The Bank for International Settlements is Trying to Change Its Ways"(69-70):-this article questions the value of the world's oldest(1930)multilateral financial institution, which has acted as both a private banker to central bankers, and a policy coordinator. Originally European, it first addedUS, Japan and Canada(8 out of 11 board members are still European)and in 1996 admitted nine second-class members, who are not in the G10. Recently, while emphasis has shifted to stabilizing the international financial system by strengthening financial regulations, BIS had little influence on the Asian crisis.

The Economist 18 Jul 98: "Funds for the Fund" (19), "To the Rescue" (65-6) and "A Peek Inside the IMF's Vaults" (66). - articles relate the IMF's assistance to Russia and its major Asian loans to the Fund's need for more credit. Third article explains in lay terms how the Fund is financed. The Editorial takes the US Congress to task for not providing more essential credit, for political reasons. "If the Fund runs out of money ... the next emerging-market collapse could trigger a default that would spill over, fatally, to all other emerging markets. And since rich countries now account for barely half of world output, that could easily mean a global slump."(19). Congress must start reading The Economist.

The Economist 22 Aug 98: "A Question of Preference" (62).- this analysis addresses the issue of whether regional free trade arrangements help or reduce optimum trade among their members, and how they affect WTO-sponsored global free trade. This is an important issue since among the 130 WTO members, all but three (Japan, the ROK and Hong Kong) belong to at least one of 80 regional trade pacts. Theconclusion is that, although it is widely debated, regionalism is not necessarily good or bad for free trade. Costly trade diversions may in fact be minimal; it depends on how much the regional pacts discriminate between members and outsiders. They do create new ideas, pressures to join and even mergers, but their terms can hurt the broader global atmosphere.

The Economist 17 Oct 98: " Globalization: The Strange Life of Low-Tech America" (73-4). - this newspaper (sic) has been questioning the popular assumption that jobs - and particularly low-skill ones - are moving from industrialized to low-wage countries. This article examines why many US low-tech manufacturing industries and companies have survived - and found little pressure to move abroad. The industries studied include clothing, cutlery, furniture, carpets and rugs, and light-bulbs. The reasons for success include transportcosts, relative or potential capital-intensity, quick delivery and reliable service, localized tastes, trade barriers, special skills, constant innovation. Productivity wins out over labour costs.

The Economist 7 Nov 98: "Against Anti-Dumping" (18); "Unfair Protection" (75-6).- Anti-dumping cases are rising rapidly. The WTO provides for penalties if agreed lower tariffs are increased; but it also allows anti-dumping duties on foreign goods sold cheaper than at home or below production cost, when domestic producers can show harm. These duties are focused, easily managed (prices and costs are hard to compare; lower sales are obvious), usually approved, high, long-lasting and repeatable, with huge indirect costs. While "predatory pricing" is rare and temporary "safeguards" with compensation are available, these duties in reality simply "encourage domestic and foreign producers to collude to raise prices" (76). The solution: write national-type antitrust rules into WTO law.

The Economist 14 Nov 98: "The International Euro" (89-90).-article examines the probable global role and influence of the euro, particularly vis-a-vis the dollar. Clearly the euro will be a major international currency. The combined 1997 GDP of the initial euro-11 countries almost matches that of the US, while their share of international trade (outside the euro area) is larger than the US share. Yet the dollar is currently the main currency used for world trade, investment and national reserves. The international effects of the euro's introduction are thus debated. Some welcome much of world's assets becoming denominated in euros; others fear 1930's-like instability with two semi-dominant currencies. Is there a need for formal international coordination? By whom?

The Economist 28 Nov 98: "A Deluge of Information" (86): - fortuitously, a detailed digital atlas of Honduraswas completed just before Hurricane Mitch flooded the country. Compiled by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, it contains 90 layers of information: soil types, crop distribution, climate, population, topography and all infrastructure. Since the flood it has been continuously updated and can play a key role in restoring the country's agricultural capacity. This type of technology is likely to play an increasingly important role in disaster relief globally, and an international disaster information network is proposed.

The Economist 02 Jan 99: "Liberalism Lives: Angus Reid/Economist Poll" (59-61): - an opinion poll carried out in late 1998 among more than 12,000 adults in 22 countries worldwide sought views on: freer trade vs protectionism; more internal competition or economic controls; restrictions on capital transfer; relative ability ofUS, "UN" , World Bank and IMF to deal with world economic problems (US only); and 1999 world economic prospects up or down. Winning option is underlined but will be misleading without the specifics of the questions asked, and the exact percentages. Full poll results are on Economist website at www .economist.com .

The Economist 20 Feb 99: "The World Economy: Could It Happen Again?" (19-22): - an essay on the question of whether the almost total disappearance of inflation could herald deflation, and so another Great Depression. The writer lists several "causes for concern" : global excess supply is unprecedentedly high; 1999 GDP growth in the G7 economies is expected to fall to its slowest rate since WWII; lower commodity prices are hurting producers in the already-troubled emerging economies (and Canada); policymakers, labour, companies and investors may fail to adjust, for lack of experience with deflation. "The world economy is, in short, precariously balanced on the edge of a deflationary precipice. Policymakersstill have ample time to use their monetary and fiscal weapons to prevent deflation...[But] history has shown that once deflation takes hold, it can be far more damaging than inflation" (22). Editorial (15-6) makes the same point.

The Economist 27 Feb 99 "World Financial Regulation" (74-5):-establishment by G7 finance ministers of a forum comprising 35 financial organizations "to assess the issues and vulnerabilities affecting theglobal financial system and to identify and oversee the actions needed to address them" .Will meet twice a year(expert groups could meet more often), but only sanction is peer pressure. LDCs are not included initially, but maybe later.

The Economist 06 Mar 99: "Drowning in Oil" (19)and "Cheap Oil: The Next Shock?" (23-5): - an editorial and a major essay on the prospects and implications of oil remaining cheaper in real terms than in 1973 (the first OPEC oil shock). On the basis of normal long-term commodity price trends and lower production costs, the price will probably stay low (currently $10 a barrel ). The reason is that since OPEC forced prices up, and kept them high by limiting production, higher-cost fields outside the Middle East became economic. Now domestic budget pressure on Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, may make them ignore unworkable quotas totally and produce whatever they can sell. This could drive prices as low as $5 a barrel and make some other fields uneconomic. While unlikely to raise global demand greatly (owing to concern over CO2, more natural gas use, and new energy-saving techniques), it would increase world dependence on an unstable region.

The Economist: 13 Mar 99: "The Caspian's Black Holes" (78): - the short article reports that "no significant new oil reserves have been found offshore in Azerjaiban since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and now some of the [oil] consortia...are...going home" . It would have global strategic and economic impact if the Caspian basin turns out not to be a massive new field. In any event, in the 17 Apr 99 issue "The Caucasus: By-Passing Russia" (55-6) reports that a new oil pipeline and rail route have just been openedjoining Baku, Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea to twin Georgian ports on the Black Sea coast. From thereproducts can be carried directly to Ukraine (Odessa), Romania (Constantia), or via the Bosporus to theMediterranean. The main significance is that both Russia and Iran are avoided and the routes are direct and shorter, so strategically/ economically advantageous. They may also raise Western influence in the area. For inter alia a good geopolitical account of this current variation on the "Great Game" , see Robert M. Cutler, "Cooperative Energy Security in the Caspian Region: A New Paradigm for Sustainable Development?" in Global Governance Vol.5/No.2(Apr-Jun 1999). He even has a win-win solution. The Economist 10 Jul 99:" Of Politics and Pipelines" (54): - reports on a 700 billion cubic meter gas find in Azerbaijan, which again upsets local geopolitics. A US-supported gas line across the Caspian from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean is already planned, avoiding Russia completely. If for once all governments can cooperate, this line could also carry the Azerbaijani gas, and further increase Western influence. Russia meanwhile plans a Russia-Turkey Black Sea gas line, the world's deepest under-sea line.

The Economist 27 Mar 99: "No School, No Future" (45-6): - a gloomy essay, contrasting the critical importance of education for raising living standards in the Third World with recent negative trends in illiteracy and lack of primary schooling in many countries, particularly Africa. The value of education is now understood almost universally: its elevating and enriching effects for individuals; the health, nutrition, productivity and fertility-rate improvements for families; and its developmental and multiplying impact on economies. Yet UNICEF reports 40m children in sub-Saharan Africa get no basic teaching, with per-child spending only half that of 20 years ago. The uneducated may reach 75m by 2015. The principal reasons: reduced/misallocated resources. Proposal: transfer funds from debt-servicing, defence, and higher education, and change attitudes on girls' education. Cost: $2b/year more would get every African child in school.

The Economist 27 Mar 99: "OPEC: Still Kicking?" (63-4): - an analytical essay predicts the likely failure of a new accord among 12 large oil producers, including several outside OPEC, to cut their output by 2.1mbd over the next year. Some argue this agreement should be taken seriously because, unlike many short-lived OPEC ministers' deals, it was a treaty among heads of state. Oil prices have already risen. Yet most oil producers' urgent need for increased incomes, the 12's disparate membership (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Norway), delayed-marketing options, the irresponsibility of Iraq and Iran, and the desperate straits of Russia and Nigeria, all create an overwhelming probability of non-compliance. The Saudis may be unable to hold the line again.

The Economist 17 Apr 99 "A Raw Deal for Commodities" (75-6):- commodity exporters have long complained about their negative terms of trade relative to manufactured imports. Yet commodity cartelshave all collapsed. Economist's commodity-price index starts in 1845. It proves long-term trend wasdownward in absolute terms: index now is only 20% of its level in 1845. Besides current financial crises,two long-term factors:(1) "A shift in economic output from heavy metal-bashing industries to services and information technology means that any given increase in GNP produces smaller increase in raw materials demand;(2)Technological advances have both increased supply of commodities, through higher rates of mineral extraction and crop yields; and reduced demand, as plastic has replaced metal, or fibre-optics have replaced copper wire" (Drucker op.cit.). Producers also tend to overshoot. Economist 12 Jun 04 "All-Items Index" (101)is a back-pages' chart on commodities' prices 1996-2004. It shows that at the time of this 1999 article they had already dropped to only 70% of their level in 1995 and were going to drop even lower by late2001(62%). Since then, however, the trend has been a rapid climb back to their 1995-8 level. The comment says:" Our dollar-based commodities index rose to a seven-year high in March, thanks in part to Chinese demand for raw materials. Shrinking grain and soyabean stocks also boosted prices" (Grain 12 Jun 04: op.cit.).

The Economist: 24 Apr 99: "Re-Emerging Economies: Uncertain Prospects" (21-3): - this major essay deals with the current economic/financial situation in, and short-term prospects for, many of the large number of "emerging" countries that were hit by the global financial crisis of 1997-9. Since my aim is to look at longer-term and global issues, the final assessment is most relevant. Its conclusion is: " for most of the world's emerging economies, if for different reasons, the most likely medium-term outlook is for only a gradual recovery...[which] may be exactly what the doctor ordered." In the longer term, "the financial crisis has precipitated and accelerated economic reforms that ought to lead to more stability in future...The reforms will...have a beneficial long-term effect...[so the] prospects for the emerging economies may...be bright indeed" (23).

The Economist 23 Apr 99 "Fuel Cells Hit the Road" (77-8):-carefully-worded article reports on significant advances in emission-free vehicle motors." A fuel cell works by chemically combining hydrogen with oxygen from the air. The result is energy in the form of moving electrons, which is used to power an electric motor; and water, the fuel cell's principal waste product" .Electric motor runs vehicle which effectively produces no pollution - and California requires 10% "zero-emission vehicles" by 2004. Hencefuel-cell cars by Daimler-Chrysler, Ford and Ballard Power Systems(" Canadian firm that has been developing fuel cells for use in vehicles for several years" )demonstrated to California government, and 45 of their cars and buses will be road-tested for four years mainly in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Toyota andGeneral Motors just signed pact to develop modern "alternatives" including vehicles powered by fuel cells. Also, since hydrogen is an explosive gas" with a ridiculously low boiling point" , oil companies Shell, Texaco and Arco producing petrol-less methanol to enable hydrogen to be made "'on the fly'...and it is thischemical...put in[gas]tanks" and available at selected gas stations. Active participants have several other problems to solve. For instance, fuel cells need to start more rapidly in cold weather, and widespreadownership will require efficient infrastructure. Ballard's design" is a polymer membrane coated on either side with platinum electrodes(the platinum also acts as a catalyst). On one side of the membrane, hydrogenis decomposed into its constituent electrons and protons. The electrons disappear into the electrode, while the protons pass through the membrane. On the other side the electrons return via the second electrode, having passed through the coils of an electric motor that drives the wheels of the car. Here, they recombinewith the protons, and also oxygen atoms, to make water" . Explains high cost of building fuel cell engine now and need to lower it. Cost cases described.

The Economist 01 May 99 "The End of Privacy: The Surveillance Society" (Edit.15-6;21-3):-the power of computers to gather personal information, and store/analyse/retrieve/disseminate it electronically/globally, will continue expanding. New capacities will involve:government/marketing/banking/surveillance(for state/private intelligence/ arms verification/lawenforcement/security control)/personal health/DNA/work/movements/contacts/tastes/credit/legal records. Policing the data is not feasible; data "gates" or encryption doubtful; intense debate inevitable. "People [must] just assume one simply has no privacy[-]one of greatest[modern]social changes.[L]aws will be used not to obstruct recording/collecting information, but to catch those who use it to do harm[,thusproducing]more lawful security."

The Economist 08 May 99:" Free Trade in Peril" (12) and "Trade: At Daggers Drawn" (17-20): -both the editorial and essay claim the current US-EU disputes over bananas, beef and genetically modified foods (all Economistop. cit.) threaten not only the WTO but the future of free trade. The disputes are updated, but emphasis is oninstitutional and economic issues: (1) with globalization, WTO members are no longer debating external tariffs or NTBs whose costs can be "balanced" . Current disputes derive from politically sensitive domestic policy issues such as food safety and environmental protection, and hence are much less negotiable; (2) the WTO is deadlocked over the choice of Director-General, largely along North-South lines; (3)both US and EU find it hard to make concessions now(elections/ economic problems); (4) the WTO is making quasi-judicial, rulings on political issues, and may be ignored. Perhaps it needs (IMF-type) Executive Committee. Letters to The Economist 22 May 99 from the Colombian and Mexican WTO missions report an LDC advisory center on WTO law is planned, and that LDCs are seeking agreed WTO election statement.

The Economist "Letters" 15 May 99: "Fuelling the Argument" (6):-contains response from Vlado Bevc of San Ramon, California to 24 Apr article(op.cit.). He contends that producing hydrogen "takes substantially more energy than one can get back by burning it. Energy required, if production is to be at significant level can come only from fossil fuels needed for electric-power generation(clean sources of electric energy[presumably not including nuclear]are insignificant) or from reformating hydrogen from hydrocarbons. In either case, process results in as much if not more carbon dioxide than would be produced by using internal-combustion engines in first place." In "Re Fuelling" 29 May "Letters" , Amory Lovins of Rocky Mountain Institute, Colorado,argues that while turning water into hydrogen takes more energy than turning hydrogen back into water, Bevccompares hydrogen's energy content with that of fossil fuels as if it would simply be burnt. In fact, fuel cells "can turn hydrogen into car motion about four times as efficiently as normal car engine, or into electricity twice as efficiently as a classical power station and grid...yield[ing]major savings in fuel, climate risk...money[and]conventional pollution" (6).

The Economist 29 May 99 "Energy: the New Convergence" (59-60):-describes how oil companies are moving into natural gas and electricity distribution/sales. Move reflects high expected demand growth for gas(2+%/year or double that for oil) driven mainly by rising use for power generation(75% of new US capacity, and 40% of all European generation by 2010)in turn reflecting its low carbon emissions(Kyoto Accord).Deregulation of gas and/or power sectors in 70 countries, allows/encourages formation of "global energy firms" (Texaco)and "total energy management (Shell). Overall effect: change very nature of vitally importantenergy business. [Combined with new developments in low-emission vehicle engines(see Economist 24 Apr, 15 May and Lugar, all op.cit.), it might help reduce "oil interests" opposition to higher North American gasoline prices, aimed at reducing carbon pollution.]

The Economist 24 Jul 99 "Stepping on the Gas" (Edit: 19-20) "Fuel Cells Meet Big Business/How a Fuel Cell Works" (59-60):-items stress/explain rapid progress in developing commercially viable fuel cells(previous material: 24 Apr 99). Main article claims: "dramatic shift in thinking of big business" ;$1.5 billion will have been spent on fuel cell R&D by next year; and costs have already fallen so sharply car makers believe mass production will help them close fuel cell/internal-combustion price gap to meet California's 2004 deadline for 10% no-emissions car sales. Power-generation companies hope to be well-established by then, with fuel cells soon competitive with alternatives, from coal to gas-fired, possibly reaching $5 billion a year globallyin power generation equipment in decade. Editorial urges: (1)end hydrocarbon fuel subsidies;(2)deregulate energy; (3)common platforms for technology/infrastructure(UN?). "Poor countries have most to gain from this efficient, flexible and(eventually)cheap technology".

The Economist 24 Jul 99:" The WTO: First Equal" (70):-articles in the 08 May issue(op.cit.) regretted both thedamage to the WTO's image of a deadlocked Director General election, and the North-South nature of the split. This one announces that Mike Moore(NZ) and Supachai Panitchpakdi (Thailand) would each take three years of the six-year term in that order. Moore had US support, which is critical; the job requires a skilful broker if agreement in a Trade Round is to be reached, and his first job will be the political preparations for a new Round to be launched in Seattle in November. Economist 28 Aug 99"The Human Face of Globalization"(52):-a (favourable) biography of Moore, also outlines current concerns about free trade/globalization. Moore admits the WTO needs change: it must open up, and its processes become more transparent. Seattle faces challenges including agriculture, services, industrial tariffs, maybeelectronic commerce.

The Economist 14 Aug 99:" Balms for the Poor" (63-5):-amplification of the key point made in this issue in both an essay by Jeffrey Sachs and an editorial(op.cit.). It is that the rate of (and death-rate from)infectious diseases in poor countries is tragically high because they offer a tiny effective drug market, and no incentive for drug companies to do costly specialized research on diseases now almost unknown(malaria)or presenting different problems(HIV)in rich countries. US and Europe spend $220b a year on prescription drugs alone; hence WHO estimates that while $56b a year is spent on health research, less than 10% is directed toward diseases that afflict 90% of the world's population. Between 1975 and 1997, 1,223 new compounds were launched on the market (at $300m/10 years research each on average), of which only 11 were designed for tropical diseases. The article describes a number of plans to redirect research and lower prices.

The Economist 21 Aug 99: Water Supply: "Pass the Salt" (Desalinization)(23); "Cloudbusting" (Rain-Making)(69-70); "An Ice Idea" (Storage)(70):-all relate to scientific-technological developments with major implications for expected world-wide fresh water shortages. The first describes a "reverse-osmosis" desalinization plantbeing built in conjunction with a power station, "which will provide the cheapest drinking water ever extractedfrom the sea" : 25m gallons a day at a wholesale cost of $2.08 per 1000 gallons for 30 years, i.e. competitive with other sources. The second reports on a new method of cloud-seeding. Now completing thorough(double-blind), encouraging tests, "hygroscopic-flare" seeding uses salts as strongly water-affinitivenuclei to form raindrops. The last foresees artificial ice mountains, created cheaply by modified "snow machines" at below-freezing, water-abundant times/places, and tapped/shipped as/where needed.

The Economist 28 Aug 99:" The Shadow Economy: Black Hole" (59):-the article reports a recent attempt toestimate the size of the "black" or "underground" economy of the whole world, as well as in 76 developed and emerging economies. Some was the product of criminal acts; much was legal income,unreported to avoid taxes. Individual country studies were made by Friedrich Schneider of Linz, Austria, whose calculations are explained. The estimated global "shadow" economy is $9 trillion. This compares with 1998official global GDP(in ppp)of $39 trillion and comprises an amount equal to the entire (official) US economy.In rich countries, the "shadow" economy averages 15% of reported GDP; in emerging countries, about one-third of GDP. The largest underground economies are in Nigeria and Thailand: more than 70% of GDP, mainly crime-generated. Among the rich, Italy, Spain and Belgium lead with 23-28%, mostly tax evasion.

The Economist 11 Sep 99:" Computers and Wages" (85): -incomes have clearly been diverging in recent decades within the OECD, former communist, and many other countries, but the cause(s) of this trend isdebatable. While technologies are obviously involved, this essay focuses on the role of computers, and Timothy Bresnahan, "Computerization and Wage Dispersion" Economic Journal Jun 99. Blaming information technology/PCs directly(i.e. knowledge work is aided; unskilled labour is redundant) "doesn't compute" , since the trend predates PCs, few bosses type, and most PCs are used by clerical personnel for word-processing and spreadsheets. Bresnahan argues that computers acted as "agent of revolution in whole organizations" . ITindeed lowered wages of unskilled(including clerks) but raised the value of jobs that cannot be automated: those requiring people-handling skills, to manage or deal with the public/other organizations.

The Economist 11 Sep 99:" Nuclear Power: Running on Empty" (87):-two major issues still facing nuclear power are its economic competitiveness with other power sources, and storage of its radioactive wastes. A new method of generating energy from nuclear waste may ease both problems. A Maryland U. scientist has developed a nuclear-powered turbo-reciprocating engine (NPTRE) which runs on the "spent" fuel rodsfrom conventional reactors. Now, after 1-2 years generating electricity, fuel rods are put in storage, having used up enough of their uranium-235 that they can no longer sustain a heat-producing chain reaction, by being hit by neutrons. They are then replaced by new rods. But (spent) fuel rods contain uranium-238 too, which also produces heat (although not a chain reaction)when hit by neutrons. So spent rods are moved near new rods-and their neutron bursts- in a reactor. The U-238 then doubles heat production -and lasts 10-14 years.

The Economist 25 Sep 99 "Too Many or Too Few" (Edit:19) "Unshapely World, Too Old or Too Young" (56):-inspired by UNFPA report "6 Billion: A Time for Choices" which gives thought to population problems. Globaldemographic trends are diverse and diverging. In industrialized world(except for immigrant-receivers)plus China, fertility is now at or below replacement level. In LDCs, average fertility rate has dropped from 6 per woman in 1969 to 3 today. But population still grows(about 80m/year)due to lower infant mortality, longer lifespans, population momentum. So authors see two issues:(1)resource pressures of high growth rates in poorest areas(most of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa)in spite of soaring death rates from AIDS;(2)economic/fiscal problems of top-heavy age structure where too-rapidly-lowered birth-rates createmore dependents than workforce can support.

The Economist 09 Oct 99:" Economics Focus: Diminishing Returns" (98):- "the world remains financially fragile; the next crisis is not hard to imagine" ; hence the Bank/Fund meetings had no excuse for failing "to take some modest precautionary steps more promptly" . So essay welcomes report by 29 experts entitled "Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System" , published by Institute for International Economics. While 29 split over floating exchange rate targets, they agreed: Improve the incentives for good policyby requiring the IMF to link interest rates on its loans to countries' crisis-prevention measures, etc. Encourage holding-period taxes on short-term capital inflows. Encourage private-sector burden-sharing by having collective-action clauses in G7 sovereign bond contracts/markets. Discourage pegged exchange rates; favour either "managed floating" or (sometimes) currency boards. Require IMF to lend less freely ( "country" vs " systemic" crises). IMF concentrates on macroeconomic policy; IBRD on longer-term development structure. Foster poor-country ownership of reform with special global conference of finance ministers.

The Economist 09 Oct 99:" Fertility Rights: Terminator Genes" (104):-biotechnology in general, and agri-biotech firms in particular, have recently become ethical, commercial and scientific subjects of debate [Horaises inter alia the subject of this item; but see also Conway(both op.cit.)]. DNA control of plant reproduction has great research value, by enabling only selected plants to be re-fertilized, but the article reports thatMonsanto, in the face of worldwide criticism, "promised not to commercialise(sic)the genetic engineering of seed sterility" . This is significant, as many suspect its real motive in developing sterile seeds was to force farmers -including poor Third World peasants- to buy costly (and, for many, unaffordable) new seeds annually. With Monsanto's action, and creation by multilateral institutes and multinationals of a relatedresearch consortium, poor farmers -desperate to raise productivity to feed growing numbers- seem a bit safer.

The Economist 06 Nov 99 "Bandwidth from Thin Air" (85-6); "How to Look Through Walls" (86):-first function of International Telecommunication Union, UN agency: "Allocation of radio frequency spectrum and registration of radio frequency assignments." As global exploitation of spectrum multiplies exponentially and increases(with satellites)in range, ITU fills its time(re)allocating fixed and so ever-more scarce/valuable global resource. Article reports two emerging technologies promise to make vastly more use of limited "bandwidth." One allows multiple simultaneous transmissions on same frequency(Bell Labs Layered Space-Time: BLAST); other transmits on huge range of frequencies at once(Ultra Wide-Band:UWB).Both create "unforeseen reserves of valuable bandwidth...at cost of increased computational complexity." UWB used as radar "can employ significantly longer wavelengths [to] penetrate wide range of materials(e.g. brick/stone)." Potential military, police, disarmament, intelligence uses vast.

The Economist 27 Nov 99:" Microfinance in Cyberspace" (79):- "lending small amounts of money, without collateral, to help poor people to become entrepreneurs - is one of the trendiest areas of international development" . There are about 10,000 microfinance institutions (MFIs) globally, and the World Bank estimates $400-600m in donor funds are earmarked annually for them. The most famous is the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. The article reports that Jacques Attali (ex-EBRD) has founded PlaNet Finance to promote microfinance by using the Internet to deliver online: information, training, systems support, rating and capital. The most controversial element is a scheme to launch PlaNet Bank to raise money in the capital markets in order to offer loans, guarantees and equity capital to MFIs. But funds are not scarce; most needed is institutional capacity. Here the Internet might indeed help - together with more and better Third World links.

The Economist 04 Dec 99 "Honda: Stack of Trouble" (64-5):-report on recent events in global race to produce first economic fuel-cell powered vehicle and how related costs are forcing industry consolidation. Described are developments at Honda, whose forte has always been car propulsion. It has designed engine, its "version of a fuel-cell stack, soul of machine that within 20 years may replace internal-combustion engine with hydrogen-powered electric motors" .But this model seems below standards reached by leading combination of Ballard Power Systems-DaimlerChrysler-Ford, or even by their rivals, General Motors-Toyota(Economist 24 Apr, 24 Jul 99, Koppel op.cit.). Honda has also installed(sealed)Ballard fuel cell in prototype electric car, made very-low-emission direct-injection and diesel engines, and launched first hybrid petrol-electric car, but may have to merge