Virginia D. Abernethy, Population Politics: The Choices that Shape Our Future(New York: Insight Books 93):-an influential source, frequently cited for its study of human incentives. It takes now widely-held view that developing an informed motivation to lower fertility rates(e.g. perception of limited resources)must often precede active use of contraceptives. It also makes radical proposal: total US immigration ban.[In fact, current migration from poor to rich countries barely affects demographic pressures or trends, although short-distance, large-scale movements (such as from Bangladesh to Assam)can have local impact.] G. Pascal Zachary, "An Unconventional Academic Sounds Population Alarm" in Wall Street Journal 31 Jul 98, reports that Abernethy opposed most aid to poor countries since, contrary to "demographic transition" theory(that fertility falls as living standards rise), prosperity increases fertility.[Most experts probably feel that while" transition" is much more complex than once thought, perceiving its complete reversalwould:(1)confuse some immediate, with major long-term, effects of rising living standards (low OECD fertility);(2)ignore many other factors, e.g. female education; women's choice; cultural imperatives.]

AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION

John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule" (Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether - in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While]Millennium African Renaissance Programme[made South Africa's president Mbeki call firstfor]'critical examination of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done differently'" ,editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt Africanregimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA article stressesincreased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which received about 1b poundsin bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on peacekeeping. Business item notes although,when South Africa's present rulers still rebels threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with attempts to create new class of black businessmen" .Survey's analyses, whileconcentrating on South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2) apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world country...Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses:(1)Land(Re)Distribution: with apartheid,white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education: takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatensnot just South Africans' security but very basis of their society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from 60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, butracial gaps are probably diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination;(6)Employment and Investment: both face major shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution" ;" only40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation Commission provided neither, butoffered "day in court" ;(8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000 whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those staying generally do not suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Coloureds complain they are "not black enough" ; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.

Agence France-Presse"U.N. Chief Blames Rich Nations for Failure of Trade Talks"New York Times 13 Feb 00:-UNSG Kofi Annan told Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD) in Bangkok that breakdown of WTO meeting in Seattle was not result of violent NGO protests, but was the fault of world's most powerful nations which "could not agree on their priorities" . While the developing nations playedmore "active and united role" than ever before, industrial powers" bickered among themselves" and showed "they did not have will to carry out reforms in[trade]rules" . Annan said barriers were excluding LDCs from benefits of global trade, and called for a "Global New Deal" to "spread the advantages of freer flow of goods, jobs and capital among all countries...open to investment" . Seth Mydans"U.N. Trade Meeting Brings Rich and Poor No Closer"NYT 20 Feb 00:-UNCTAD "ended with no real narrowing of differences" that split WTO meeting, thus confirming UNSG's pessimism. There were only " general expressions of hope that rich and poor nations might eventually agree on formula that would allow them to share benefits of global trade." To this end, LDCs had again demanded fully opened markets for their products, and objected to standards of environmental and worker protection that simply delayed their development. Algeria claimed Africa is being crushed - indeed "rubbed out" - by new world trade order. The Economist 13 May 00"The WTO: Merry-Go-Round" (75-6):-provides useful update on WTO-related issues since WTO/UNCTAD meetings, andconfirms both Annan's complaints: US and EU still "bickering" , and LDCs still getting raw deal. For another, more optimistic/forward-looking update on Transatlantic bickering:Economist 30 Sep 00"Trade: Boom...".

Masood Ahmed & Cheryl Gray Helping Countries Combat Corruption: The Role of the World Bank(Washington: IBRD 97):-produced by World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network(PREM). Bank's World Development Report 1997: The State in a Changing World(op.cit.)also deals with global corruption issues in government context but mainly descriptively, while PREM reportconcentrates on how Bank can help governments address corruption as serious development constraint. Daniel Kaufmann(op.cit.)lists more articles and books on this issue.

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: COST/PATENT DILEMMA; GLOBAL ASSISTANCE

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach the material dealing with all media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.

Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.

Philip G.Altbach & Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign Policy No.144(Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be influenced by "worldly" visions. Despite newglobal concerns with terrorism" there is no holding back the flow of students seeking education beyondtheir borders" ;Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase to 8m by 2025." Regarding content," literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/management,engineering, mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asiancountries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled through distance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leading receiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000), Britain(223,000), France(135,000), Germany(185,000),US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own study/living expenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintain strong ties from abroad, someeventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies byproviding expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remainsproblem for many poorer societies" . It may then be related to expenses that "increasing number[of potential foreign student payers is]looking for new options in developing world" ;emergence of mega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of'brain trade'forever.

Lawrence K.Altman "Report Shows AIDS Epidemic Slowdown in 2005"New York Times 30 May 06:- "Newsurveys suggest that global AIDS epidemic has begun to slow, with decline in new HIV infections in about 10 countries, leader of UNAID program said. Outside of those countries,.. number of new AIDS infections continues to rise or hover at its current pace. Meanwhile, public health efforts are reaching only a small proportion of people at risk, Dr.Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS, said at news conference in UN NYC ...India has 5.7m infected people and South Africa 5.5m, but India's population far greater. Showing no sign of decline, South Africa has a prevalence rate of about 19% of 47m people.In India, rate is less than 1% of its population of 1.1b. Progress against AIDS in some regions represents dividends from a surge in financing since 2001, when UN pledged its commitment to stem epidemic by 2010. Declaration called for countries to report regularly on their responses to AIDS. This week, UNGAwill receive the progress that 126 countries have said they have made. Report(op.cit.), most comprehensive survey ever compiled from country data, pointed to the 2001 UN meeting as a turning point for AIDS financing. In 2005,.. world spent $8.3b on AIDS, compared with $1.6b in 2001. 'We areseeing the impact', Piot said. He cited increased condom use, a rise in postponement of sexual intercourse and a decrease in number of sex partners as factors in slowing of epidemic. Summarizing report's findings, Piot said '2005 was least bad year in the history of the AIDS epidemic'... Despite thepositive trends, Piot reported grim findings from China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Russia andVietnam(op.cit.), with signs of outbreaks in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Ending the pandemic will depend largely on changing social norms like empowering women, reducing stigma of the disease andencouraging a greater reduction in the number of sex partners, report said. Most countries have strong foundations for building an effective response against AIDS, report said, but systems to carry out plansremain inconsistent. Thoroughness of the individual national reports varied, and many countries did not provide data for all categories... Still, replies identified significant weaknesses, he said. Fewer than 50%of young people achieved comprehensive knowledge levels about HIV, far fewer than the 90% goal. Only9% of gay men and fewer than 20% of intravenous drug users received any kind of HIV prevention help in 2005. Services to prevent HIV infections in infants have not scaled up as rapidly as programs to provide antiretroviral therapy. Just 9% of pregnant women were covered... Report shows that epicenterof the epidemic remains in sub-Saharan Africa. There epidemic has reached peak, but incidence remains unacceptably high, Piot said. Across most of Africa, HIV prevalence among pregnant women attendingclinics has remained roughly level for several years. UN disputed contentions by some observers thatthe leveling off showed a turning point in the AIDS epidemic in Africa... Piot said, 'actual number of people infected continues to rise because of population growth'" ; Lawrence K.Altman "U.N. Urges Tripling of Funds by '08 to Halt AIDS" NYT 01 Jun 06:- "Stopping epidemic of AIDS will require $22b/year by 2008 and possibly more in following years, officials of UNAIDS program said. The $22b is nearly triplethe $8.3b spent 05 by all sources, including governments and private sector. Urging that countries spend more, UNSG Kofi Annan said a costlier and more sustained effort needed because AIDS 'hasspread further, faster and with more catastrophic long-term effects than any other disease'... Of projectedfigure, half is needed for prevention and a quarter for treatment and care of infected people. Remainderis for care of orphans, children at risk of becoming infected and program costs. UNSG and Piot of UNAIDS spoke as UNGA began meeting aimed at renewing political commitment and setting new goals for expenditures and for measuring progress... Annan urged delegates to challenge countries trying to avoid goals that mention gay people, prostitutes, intravenous-drug users and others at high risk of becoming infected. 'Governments concerned need to be realistic and responsible', UNSG said. He also said that 'if we are here to try to end the epidemic, we will not succeed by putting our head in the sandand pretending that these people do not exist or they do not need help'... Report cards showed that most countries missed more goals than they met. More than 20m have become infected since 2001 meeting.Now countries must fundamentally change the way they think and deal with epidemic, moving from crisis management to 'sustained attention and the kind of "anything it takes" resolve that member states apply to preventing global financial meltdowns or wars' , Piot said... Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS released a study showing that private companies have become more likely to provide treatment for employees as cost of antiretroviral drugs has fallen over last six years, to $140-$300/year,from $10,000. In African countries with a high prevalence, more than 70% of companies surveyed arefully subsidizing access to HIV treatment, coalition said. Study...found increasing trend to expand such treatment to employees' dependents. Companies also offering access to voluntary testing/counseling" ; Lawrence K.Altman & Elisabeth Rosenthal "U.N. Strengthens Call for a Global Battle Against AIDS" NYT 02 Jun 06:- "[UNGA] adopted strongly worded declaration [02 Jun] aimed at pressing nations of the worldto strengthen their battle against AIDS, global pandemic [UNSG] called 'greatest challenge of our generation'. Language of document surprised even anti-AIDS groups, which said that while it did not satisfy all their objectives, they had feared it would be watered down... Nonbinding declaration reaffirms commitments made in 01, when UN defined AIDS as far more than a medical issue, framing it in terms of political/human rights/ economic survival... New document is political blueprint, not plan of action.Calls for strong commitment to bolster the rights of women/girls so they can protect themselves from infection with HIV... Declaration calls on countries to: use scientifically documented prevention strategies, including condoms;make clean needles accessible to drug users; take steps to provide universal access to prevention programs/ care/antiretroviral drugs. Includes politically charged terms like 'condoms' /'vulnerable groups' , though those groups not specified... Countries expected to measuretheir progress over next 5 years against targets to be determined by UN... Said world will need to spend up to $23b/year by 2010... Earlier in day, UNSG Annan delivered a gloomy assessment, saying world waslosing the battle. 'The epidemic continues to outpace us' , he told packed UNGA. 'There are more new infections than ever before; more deaths than ever before; more women/girls infected than ever before'... [US' s] Mrs.Bush speech steered away from many of the criticisms that have been labled against administration, notably that it promotes sexual abstinence over scientifically proven strategies,particularly condom use. Indeed, she said, 'ABC'model - initials stand for abstain, be faithful and usecondoms - had brought sharp declines in infections in Africa. Britain's international development[minister] said in interview: abstinence alone did not work ...Dr. Peter Piot [UNAIDS] said: while nodocument could make anyone '100% happy', final version was 'a major advance'and far stronger thanweaker drafts circulating earlier in week" .

Chris Anderson, "The Young(stressing Youth and Age)" The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explorescauses/ elements/global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing down of traditional...order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace ofchange(technological/social)favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; riskfutures; prefer opportunity to wealth/ security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth's growing role/impact in decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge]Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow; increasingly they are leaders of today" .

Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).

Kofi A. Annan, Report of the [UN] Secretary-General to the Preparatory Committee for the High-level International Intergovernmental Event on Financing for Development:-this collaborative effort(officially UNGA Document A/AC.257/12)runs to 64 pages, makes 87 recommendations, and was commissioned bythe Millennium Summit to help focus discussion at a Mar 2002 global meeting on development financing(still an" event" since it awaits an official title). Involved directly in the report's preparation were: many parts of the UN proper(particularly DESA, UNCTAD and UNDP); UN Agencies; the Bank, Fund and WTO; theregional development banks; OECD; the Financial Stability Forum; many governments/otherstakeholders(arranged by the UN regional commissions); the business community; and civil society organizations. Hence it reflects extremely varied, expert and authoritative views - significant, since some proposals are quite radical, even if presented solely on the responsibility of the UN Secretariat. The report consists of an Introduction and six chapters, the latter perhaps being the agenda items of the "event" : I. Mobilizing domestic financial resources for development; II. Mobilizing international resources for development: foreign direct investment and other private flows; III. Trade; IV. Increasing international financial cooperation for development through, inter alia, official development assistance; V. Debt; VI. Addressing systemic issues: enhancing coherence and consistency of the international monetary, financial and trading systems in support of development. For highlights, see UN Press Release DEV/2275at: http://www.un.org/News/Press /docs/2001/ dev2275.htm. The complete text(which explains all acronyms!)can also be downloaded from the Web: http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.htm orhttp://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.pdf. For three articles about the Report(highlighting the dirty bits)see: Christopher S. Wren, "U.N. Report Proposes Steps to Fight Global Poverty" in New York Times 30 Jan 01;Reuters, "Annan Offers Poor Nations 87 Ways to Lure Funds" NYT 30 Jan; Wren, "The U.N. Offers 87 Remedies to Help Poor Nations Develop" NYT 04 Feb. The UNSG's opening speech at the subsequentPrepcom meeting is reported in: Reuters "Annan: Poor Nations Must Set Development Priorities" NYT 12 Feb. It describes his theme as: LDCs "should play a greater role in setting policy and priorities in thefinancing of global development" and cease to be "decided in clubs where only rich countries have real influence" . This issue is of course a perennial one at the UN, where the contribution-weighted voting in Bretton Woods bodies is seen as "grossly unfair" and "neo-colonialist" by aid recipients, whose very survival may be at stake, but "absolutely essential" by the investment-oriented donors, who feel" shareholders" have natural rights to determine where and how their own money is spent. Annan aims to increase the relative role of" one-country-one-vote" UN fora(UNGA; ECOSOC)in making broad global development policies and priorities. He also is very concerned to make foreign investment in LDCs larger and less volatile as ODA continues its decline. Advising him is a high-level panel(Zedillo, Rubin, Delors...).

Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit diseasetreatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New isrange/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichment and urged to voluntary time-limitedmoratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitor compliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far moreengaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hasten efforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation.Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to give strategic focus for workin states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions:(1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposedminimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive actionagainst imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take actionearlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/other comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommendsstrengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform.Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole; not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .

Associated Press"EU Agency: Gypsies Suffer Discrimination"New York Times 07 Apr 06:-"Gypsies[henceforth Roma] remain among Europe's most discriminated-against people, European Union's racism watchdog agency said [07 Apr]... Roma routinely denied jobs/ housing/education/health care, saidVienna-based EU Monitoring Center on Racism and Xenophobia. Center's director... said Roma living in many of EU's 25 member states suffer 'systematic discrimination', and called for more intensive effort/greater political will to eliminate the bias and help lift Roma communities out of poverty. Estimated 6.2m Roma live in Europe - 4.6m in central/eastern Europe - according to estimates by UN-affiliatedInternational Organization for Migration. Last year... EU monitoring center said unemployment ran as high as 90% among Roma in some new EU members such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, and that worst discrimination happened when Roma tried to rent/buy property. ['T]erritorial segregationis particularly acute', report said. Roma also tended to receive substandard medical care... A globalconference of Prague-based International Romani Union - coalition of organizations working to easethe plight of Roma - designated 08 Apr as International Day of Roma in 1990"

Associated Press"Maritime Authorities OK Tracking Measure"New York Times 19 May 06:-"Maritime authorities have agreed upon new legislation that will allow for long-range tracking of merchant ships - a key measure in tackling the threat of seaborne terrorist attacks, the UN International Maritime Organization said [19 May]. A total of 166 countries have agreed to the new rules for merchant vessels, which would also allow countries to conduct surveillance on vessels suspected of carrying illicit cargo.Organization said signatory governments had provisionally agreed to the changes in the Safety of Life at Sea convention... 'Ships will be required to transmit their identity, location and date and time of theirposition to be tracked by satellite', said UN shipping agency's external relations officer... New legislation will mean a ship's position can be identified up to 1,000 nautical miles from shore. Current systems arelimited to a range of a few hundred nautical miles... Merchant vessels trading in international waters willneed to switch to new long-range system by Jan 08, offering maritime authorities a system similar tothat used by air traffic controllers";

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):-former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Benjamin R. Barber, Jihad vs. McWorld: How the Planet is Both Falling Apart and Coming Together and What This Means for Democracy(New York: Times Books 95):-unusual and debatable perception of some broad global trends that has generated new interest - though not necessarily credibility for its conclusion - since its publication. Argues world experiencing basic conflict between homogenizing power of post-industrial capitalism/ "fundamentalist" ethnic-religious reaction. Believes both forces undermine state(presumably in terms of traditional sovereignty)and hence democracy.[Why and how is democracy so dependent upon sanctity of Westphalian nation-state?]Sources of new interest derive, of course, from growth of anti-globalization movement, however disunited it may be in both fears and formulas, and "Clash of Civilizations" thesis put forward by Samuel P. Huntington(op.cit.)and apparently illustrated -all too violently- by Osama bin Laden.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Felicity Barringer "Nations Ranked as Protectors of the Environment"New York Times 24 Jan 05:-2005 has produced"index of environmental sustainability, which ranks nations on their success at such tasks asmaintaining/improving air and water quality, maximizing biodiversity and cooperating with other countries on environmental problems...Report is based on 75 measures, including rate at which children die from respiratory diseases, fertility rates[of what?], water quality, overfishing, emission of heat-trapping gases, and export of sodium dioxide, crucial component of acid rain. Report also cited statisticallysignificant correlation between high-ranking countries and[those]with open political systems/effective governments."Top ten out of 146 countries studied were(in their order):Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden, Iceland, Canada, Switzerland, Guyana, Argentina, Austria. US ranked 45th, behind such countries as Japan, Botswana, Bhutan, most of Western Europe. Lowest-ranking country was North Korea; others near bottom were Haiti, Taiwan, Iraq, Kuwait. Index is second produced in collaboration with World Economic Forum(Davos, Switzerland).

Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis & Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa(Oxford: James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamenting demography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/ structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/ violence).While driven by change, these African reactions show historical influence of approvingaccumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thus nationalism, government and law are simply used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.

Barbara Beck "The Economics of Ageing: The Luxury of Longer Life" The Economist 27 Jan 96(Survey 1-16):-longer average lifespans worldwide are raising global, and not simply national, problems in fields like economics and finance, travel and migration, medicine and health care, social and cultural change, and even moral standards.

Barbara Beck, "A Survey of Women and Work: For Better, For Worse" in The Economist 18 Jul 98(1-16):-an excellent economic and social examination of the formal employment of women, including a human-rights-related analysis of why so few are found in the top levels of business. Most information is on OECDcountries - which have the best statistics and seem to lead a global trend. Subjects include: history, e.g. the combined impact of safe contraception and the transformation of labor needs; OECD employment trendsand their reasons; gender variation by job type, pay and unemployment; maternity and paternity leave,daycare, shared child care and housework, career-breaks, taxation and birthrate issues. All are UN issuesnow; its actively trying to improve its own employee gender balance.

Elizabeth Becker "Number of Hungry Rising, U.N. Says" New York Times 08 Dec 04:-UN agency Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)makes ominous report: for first time in almost decade, estimated number in the world going hungry has increased. Despite overall increase in global wealth, FAO states, after slow/steady decrease, chronically hungry rose to nearly 852m(18m increase since 00); 5m children aredying of hunger annually. FAO senior claimed world now producing more than enough food, so problemis access to jobs/resources/land/money to buy food. UN's International Labor Organization(ILO)reported that record 1.4b(half world's workers)earn less than $2 daily. Oxfam reported that global aid budgets now total half of level in 60. Yet UN's Millennium Development Goals, pledged by all the world's governments, set targets to halve extreme poverty/hunger by 15." At least 80% of world's chronically hungry live in rural areas and over half...subsistence farmers. Competition from world's wealthiest farmers, heavilysubsidized by rich governments,...blamed in part for the inequity. Trade ministers have promised to continueworking to reduce agricultural subsidies/supports at global trade talks next year[WTO].In <