|
|
| by Christopher
Spencer |
Former Senior
Advisor International Organizations, Canadian Department of
Foreign Affairs and International Trade |
| Updated: 20 FEB
10 | |
Virginia D. Abernethy, Population Politics: The Choices that Shape Our Future(New York: Insight Books 93):-an influential
source, frequently cited for its study of human incentives. It takes now widely-held view that developing an informed
motivation to lower fertility rates(e.g. perception of limited resources)must often precede active use of contraceptives. It also
makes radical proposal: total US immigration ban.[In fact, current migration from poor to rich countries barely affects
demographic pressures or trends, although short-distance, large-scale movements (such as from Bangladesh to Assam)can
have local impact.] G. Pascal Zachary, "An Unconventional Academic Sounds Population Alarm" in Wall Street Journal 31 Jul
98, reports that Abernethy opposed most aid to poor countries since, contrary to "demographic transition" theory(that fertility
falls as living standards rise), prosperity increases fertility.[Most experts probably feel that while" transition" is much more
complex than once thought, perceiving its complete reversalwould:(1)confuse some immediate, with major long-term, effects
of rising living standards (low OECD fertility);(2)ignore many other factors, e.g. female education; women's choice; cultural
imperatives.]
Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128)
Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one
of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even
the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and
the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward
the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU".
Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior
Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.
Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the Unknown (Toronto: Time
Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious: 17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists
and academics. Aim is to survey where scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be
global and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and implications; "Third World"
-relevant technology; genderdifferences; care of global commons and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy
forms; ethical computing; "homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at trends
and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example ofvaluable collections of what are in fact
21st-Century global issues, put together by good general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions
like anniversaries or new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with subjects global
in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably offer reading lists.
James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon &
Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in
many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of
combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less,
electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time,
vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber) vulnerability. In global
North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any
less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attacks onthat technology's weak points.[World community/UN will
find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space
limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms
of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or
delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/
accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]
Patricia Adams and Grainne Ryder, "China's Great Leap Backward: Uneconomic and Outdated, the Three Gorges Dam Will
Stunt China's Economic Growth" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.4(Autumn 98):-fear of global warming produced above all
by fossil fuels' carbon dioxide caused real concern about China's vast impact as world's largest producer/consumer of coal,
worst fossil fuel CO2 source. Yet large hydroelectric dams also produced great environmental damage, and Three Gorges Dam
will be largest in world. Hence article argues Dam hydro-generation should be replaced by "either combined cycle gas turbines
or cogeneration [which] would reduce CO2 emissions by more than 60%" (694).(Explanation in article.)Unfortunately, case is
made with such CO2 focus that critical purpose of dam "flood-control" is ignored. See massive global threat from flooding:
Economist 11 Mar 00(op.cit.).
M. A. Adelman, The Genie Out of the Bottle: World Oil Since 1970(Cambridge: MIT Press 96):-possibly most serious challenges
resulting from world economic/environmental change relate to producing/consuming energy. Oil is still world's most critical
energy source and will never be exhausted; it will simply cease being economically retrievable...For those with economic
experience, book provides excellent history of global trends in oil industry since it became major factor in world affairs,
including OPEC's formation, OPEC-induced 70s oil price shocks, and 86 collapse of OPEC's attempt to control prices; it also
provides backdrop to recent major changes in industry. For interesting statistical evidence that oil prices may play greater
role in raising or lowering employment than interest rates/inflation/ productivity, see The Economist 01 Apr 00: "Oil and the
New Economy" (72).
Shardul Agrawala and Steinar Andresen, "Indispensability and Indefensibility? The United States in the Climate Treaty
Negotiations" Global Governance Vol.5/No.4(Oct/Dec 99):-insightful essay not only relevant to most critical environmental
issue facing global community(Grubb 99 op.cit); helps explain both sudden changes or galling intransigence in US positions
on variety multilateral questions(for UN: Lyons op.cit.).Recalls major US environment statements, policies and positions, and
shows them surprisingly erratic even under same president. Then identifies powers and interests of many forces and often
key individuals within US administrations, Congress, industry, public opinion and dedicated pressure groupsthat influenced
environmental policy, and shows how their interplay affected or determined volatile orstubborn US position on climate change
at various times.
AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES
The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this
subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach the media selections relating to AIDS,
click on AIDS Third World.
Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely
expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of
weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which
terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear
terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist]
groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to
technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment
of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations
from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible
weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy
changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance
against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material;
shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime;
revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential
involvement must be global.
Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first
of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The
current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's
nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put these threats at the top of his
national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries".
Emphasized extracts:"Over the past eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons".
"Obama's mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The international
community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of
rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime.
From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and
Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School of Government. For annotated
guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation.
Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson "The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, but many political
and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will
have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its
owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From first paragraph:"Over the past
three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear
agenda includes renewing formal arms control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing
for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear nonproliferation regime, and
redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made
this goal a priority for his administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he was
Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.
Philip G.Altbach & Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign Policy No.144 (Sep/Oct 04):-among very
influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities
in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be
influenced by "worldly" visions. Despitenew global concerns with terrorism" there is no holding back the flow of students
seeking education beyond their borders" ;Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase
to8m by 2025." Regarding content," literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/ management,
engineering, mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asian countries; the following
states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled through distance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South
Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leading receiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000),
Britain(223,000),France(135,000), Germany(185,000), US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own
study/livingexpenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintainstrong
ties from abroad, some eventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies
by providing expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remains problem for many poorer
societies" . It may then be related to expenses that "increasing number[of potential foreign student payers is]looking for new
options in developing world" ;emergence of mega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of'brain trade'forever.
Roger C.Altman "The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West"(2-14) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"The economic collapse of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the West. It
has stripped Wshdc and European governments of the resources and credibility they need to maintain their roles in global
affairs. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the meantime they will accelerate trends that are shifting the
world's center of gravity away from the US". Emphasized extracts:"The crisis' underlying cause was the combination of very
low interest rates and unprecedented levels of liquidity". "US deficit for the fiscal year that began in Oct 08 will approach $1
trillion - or 7.5% of US GDP". Altman is Chair/CEO of Evercore Partners. Was US Deputy Treasury Secretary 93-4.
Sudhir Anand & Amartya K.Sen Sustainable Human Development: Concepts and Priorities(New York: UNDP/ODS 96):-tries
to provide rationale for bringing together narrowly environmental view of "sustainable" world and case for eliminating
"inequities" in living conditions. Argument for "human development" (pushed by UNDP/World Bank/this bibliography)made
well, but its role in population control and easing pressure on the planet's carrying capacity mentioned only weakly and
indirectly. General economic development( "overall opulence" )criticized as "partisan" for failing "to take note of need for
impartiality in allocating entitlements" i.e.collective statistics hide unacceptable inequities. Imbalanced - or at least imperfect
- defence of key imperatives.
Chris Anderson"The Young(stressing Youth and Age)"The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explores causes/elements/
global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already
changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially
working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing
down of traditional... order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung
people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once
reserved for their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace of change(technological/ social)favours young, since they learn/relearn
faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things (including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to
meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant
updating/ replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; risk futures;
preferopportunity to wealth/security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth'sgrowing
role/impact in decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs'
power being in knowledge]. Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow;increasingly they are leaders of today" .
Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General
worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must
exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not
suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs
/business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" . There are
many references to a sustainable environment.
Kofi A. Annan, "UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message
to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities
of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand,
and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging
Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's
text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times
the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions.
Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the
dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer,
UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world"
.[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US
appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish
water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization
plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water,
while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates
have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need,
economics/technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large
expenditures on desalination.]
Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay
built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent
introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many
concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We
face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security
threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our
responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared
commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points
of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions
are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective
response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address
the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer"
. First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed
as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal
violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats
interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could
level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of
developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period
for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to
unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany
threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need
collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats,
world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt
SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development
support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save
lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger
ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come.
Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health
facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit diseasetreatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence
against bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt,
effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources
management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New is range/scale/ intensity of threat(al-Qaeda
can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented
danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists:articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition
of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidating
population/compelling actionby government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus and strengthen UN
response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/ disarmament/curbing supply of materials
to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of
domestic uranium enrichment and urged to voluntary time-limitedmoratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability
to monitor compliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since
Cold War, UN far moreengaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than in previous 200
years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper
supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hasten efforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN
must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation.Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise
civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost
focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to give strategic focus for
workin states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force.
Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions:(1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify
force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted?
(4) Proportional means: force proposedminimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than
inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/ pre-emptive
actionagainst imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in
horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take actionearlier than past, when
asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that
question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed
principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/other
comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has
under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01.
Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too
difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global
framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them.
Already does so; report recommendsstrengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention:
UNSC reform.Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active
engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two
suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN
financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole; not expand veto, which would render decisions
more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for
decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee
decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore
responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social
development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights
Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect.
Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt
collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium
Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I
will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through
period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's
security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility"
Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi
Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive
Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective
Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at
http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally
available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has
spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.
"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US
intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This
strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq,
proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in
Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly
negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled
Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency,
Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden
Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War,
Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The
Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.
Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author
defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it
merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This
book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the
book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between
Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up
nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its
message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college
textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against
a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation
between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words,
they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common
perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of
11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early
to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war
between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is
already here"(266).
Associated Press, "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" in New York Times 12 Jan 00:- article
deals with a real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal.
Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross the earth's orbit. This number
produces about a 1% chance of one hitting the earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material
believed left over from the formation of the solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of a
mile to six miles, they are big enough to "wreak global disaster" . NASA has just lowered the estimated numberof such killers
to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within the next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able
to destroy cities. Britain has just set up a risk assessment committee. AP, "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" in NYT 18 Sep 00:-the
committee mentioned above is reported to have urged the British government to seek international partners to fund a powerful
new telescopeto be stationed in the southern hemisphere and governments should launch joint studies to assess how to
destroy an object on a collision course with the planet. The committee estimated that a "wide object" crashes into our planet
every 10,000 years with the force of a 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a
little[money]into making certain we know if there is a danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet" .
Associated Press," Researchers Produce a Healthier Rice" in New York Times 14 Jan 00: -item reports that " scientists have
genetically engineered a type of rice that could end vitamin A deficiency in the developing world" . About 14m children
worldwide are deficient; so besides reducing widespread blindness, raising vitamin A levels could prevent 1-2m deaths a year.
Swiss researchers successfully spliced three genes into rice to make it rich in beta carotene, a source of vitamin A. While tests
are ensuring the original nutritional value is maintained, the famous International Rice Research Institute(IRRI) is working
tobreed the trait into popular rice varieties. New developments are reported in David Barboza, "AstraZeneca to Sell a
Genetically Engineered Strain of Rice" NYT 16 May(Note to Anthony DePalma," Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets..." ).
Associated Press, "China Refines Birth-Control Policy" New York Times 07 May 00:-with new government policy, China"hopes
to limit its growing population to 1.4b people in 2010 by refining" its current policy. This is unlikely feat, given that present
official figure of 1.25b may understate real total by tens of millions, and experts believe population will actually peak about
1.6b around 2050. Beijing claims:" A more perfect control system will be built and a better environment...created...[S]afe,
effective and proper contraceptive methods should be made available to women...Nevertheless, population will increase by
10m/year in next few decades".Officials already worry this will outstrip finite supplies of water, farmlandand other resources,
requiring major grain imports, but an unintended population-control factor has developed: boys being preferred, China may
already have 100m more males than females.
Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in
meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference
produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to
Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since
many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate
housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and
Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm
adequate housing as "human right" .
Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time
as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human
rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got
under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear
ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends
31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said
humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism
has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization
risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges
- unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result,
we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain
convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched
on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we
have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this
mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common
future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".
Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its
military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful
development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense
policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China
will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is
determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military
is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b,
but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher...
One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has
hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal
withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain theseparatist forces for Taiwan
independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it
will adhere to the 'one-China'policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties
with Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign
backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted
what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the
policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of
North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said"
.
Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):-former CIA case officer 1976-97,
and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02),
drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the
Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the
Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the
agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my
suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your
Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security
Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the
world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need.
The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly
work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]
Ronald Bailey edit.,The True State of the Planet: Ten of World's Premier Researchers in a Major Challenge to the Environmental
Movement(New York: Free Press 95):-similar approach to Easterbrook(op.cit.)but uneven in its claimed iconoclasm. The
sections on forestry, biodiversity, fisheries, water and air pollution, chemical-cancer and technological-economic links seem
sound, and even orthodox. The sections on population, food supply and global warming, while not inaccurate, seem unfairly
selective in drawing facts and optimistic conclusions, and in ignoring important factors to do so.
Ronald Bailey, "A Clean and Comfortable Planet Without Global Regulation" (171-9)and Gareth Porter, "Why We Need the
United Nations to Protect the Global Environment" (181-9)in Ted Galen Carpenter, edit.,Delusions of Grandeur: The United
Nations and Global Intervention(Washington: Cato Institute, 1997):- for book annotation, see Carpenter(op.cit.) Contrasting
articles disagree less over reality of environmentalproblems than over whether UN/ states should do anything about them.
Bailey argues UN programs wouldcost money and thus slow wealth-creation - the automatic solution. Similarly, if left alone,
world farmerscould produce as much as US corn-growers do today -and feed 10 billion people at present US calorie levels
on half the present cropland(174). Global warming is unlikely (UN estimates biased)but if world economy left alone to get rich,
costs can be borne. Porter summarizes consensus views on climate change, ozonedepletion, ocean pollution, fish depletion,
deforestation, biodiversity loss, and argues they can be addressedonly by global cooperation. He outlines diverse views that
impede UN policy/ action, but concludes that the UN is indispensable for progress.
Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs
Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy.
After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to
dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology".
Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time
has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks
Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.
Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly
well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change,
nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism,
physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly
handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's
"threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of
the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and
concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human
tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both
press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of
brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG
that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least;
(3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG;
(5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States
Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.
Felicity Barringer "Nations Ranked as Protectors of the Environment"New York Times 24 Jan 05:-2005 has produced"index
of environmental sustainability, which ranks nations on their success at such tasks asmaintaining/improving air and water
quality, maximizing biodiversity and cooperating with other countries on environmental problems...Report is based on 75
measures, including rate at which children die from respiratory diseases, fertility rates[of what?], water quality, overfishing,
emission of heat-trapping gases, and export of sodium dioxide, crucial component of acid rain. Report also cited
statisticallysignificant correlation between high-ranking countries and[those]with open political systems/effective
governments."Top ten out of 146 countries studied were(in their order):Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden, Iceland, Canada,
Switzerland, Guyana, Argentina, Austria. US ranked 45th, behind such countries as Japan, Botswana, Bhutan, most of Western
Europe. Lowest-ranking country was North Korea; others near bottom were Haiti, Taiwan, Iraq, Kuwait. Index is second
produced in collaboration with World Economic Forum(Davos, Switzerland).
Christopher de Bellaigue "THINK AGAIN: IRAN" Foreign Policy No.148 (May/Jun 05) (18-24):-like other FPissues, correction
of nine public concepts; here: about Iranian nuclear weapons production/use or its positive response to stiff US pressure.
Author first outlines widely-held views( "Under-lined Statements" ); states FIRM REACTIONS; and then provides his view of
actual truth. He first provides summary: "Tehran's desire for nuclear bomb has put it in Washington's cross hairs. But neither
President George W.Bush'srepeated condemnations of Iran's clerical rulers, nor the threat of military force will advance cause
ofdemocracy there. When Iran reforms, it will happen because its youth - not the United States - demands it." "If Iran Gets a
Nuclear Bomb, Iran Will Use It"-VERY UNLIKELY. "Iran almost certainly does not intendto brandish a nuclear bomb in an
attempt to intimidate...Israel/US... Further, clerics have blessed a partial detente with their Arab neighbours and...EU.[Yet] there
is plausible circumstantial evidence ...to suggestthat Iran's nuclear program is not civilian. [N]uclear ambiguity is calculated,
a reaction to the vulnerability it feels. Iran probably intends to gather all the elements necessary for bomb making, so that it
can gonuclear the moment that it feels an attack is imminent." "Iran Has No Use for Nuclear Power"-False."Energy needs are
rising faster than [Iran's oil/gas] ability to meet them... Its capacity must nearly triple over 15 years to meet projected
demand[,and the electricity cannot all come] from the oil sector. [Output] has stagnated at around 3.7mbd since late 1990s.
Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally [and the natural] gas reserves are only just being tapped. It makes sense
for Iran to free up its hydrocarbons for export [and] Iran contends that US may pressure foreign sellers into stopping the flow.
[Hence] Iran'sdesire for a complete fuel cycle is most suspicious aspect of nuclear program"."The Iranian People Support Their
Leaders' Nuclear Program"-NOT REALLY. "Iranians who vocally support...nuclear ambitions...minority[;] never witnessed
spontaneous discussion of nuclear program among average Iranians...Unlikely many Iranians willing to put up with
economic/diplomatic isolation...if Iran insisted on enriching uranium"."Only the Threat of Force Can Dissuade Iran from
Advancing with Its Nuclear Plans"-DOUBTFUL."Threat...could also...encourage Iran to leave NPT and develop a nuclear
weapon ASAP...[N]ever abandons goal of achieving a nuclear fuel cycle... Iran is more flexible than it appears...[It might] revise
its nuclear plans if US abandoned its [hard policies] ...Ultimately it might refuse to publicly relinquish nuclear goals, preferring
instead to extend current negotiations indefinitely"."U.S. Military Action Would Embolden Dissidents to Topple the Islamic
Republic"-WRONG. "Workers...keeping their heads down andmouths shut... Iranians don't want Iraq's wretched conditions...
Iranians opposed to Islamic Republic lack a unifying ideology... Possible some Iranians would cheer a US invasion, but not
for long". "Criticizing the Islamic Republic Helps Dissidents Inside Iran"-NO. "Bush's repeated statements of support for
Iranian people do not help normal Iranians... Publicly defending beleaguered reformists simply allowed clerics to accuse
reformers of being US lackeys...US criticism has perverse effect because US has no diplomatic or economic relations with Iran,
and hence no leverage. EU and others [have] some modest leverage with Iran's clerical rulers". "If Iraq Becomes a Democracy,
so Will Iran"-WISHFUL THINKING. "Border is about all they share...Few Iranians...question Iran's integrity within its current
borders. Same is not true in Iraq...Iran set up a semi-democratic, anti-Western, Shia theocracy... Clerics today enjoy
considerable prestige"."Iran Cannot Be Reformed from Within"-WRONG AGAIN. "Iran can and will be reformed from within.
Demographics make that course inevitable. Some 70% of Iran's 70m citizens under age of 30, and young Iranians are more
reform-minded than older groups... Young people resent existing political restrictions more than their elders, and are less
religiously observant... Spread of material values and sexual freedom is palpable, as is desire for smaller families...Young
people display little animus for once-hated US...[Yet]reform-minded millions lack common ideology/ leadership... New
generation will... spur further reform. Process would benefit from critical dialogue with US, rather than current, glowering
standoff".
C.Fred Bergsten"A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge"(57-69) Foreign
Affairs Vol.87/No.4(Jul/Aug 08):-official summary:"Despite its growing economic clout, China continues to act like a small
country with little impact on the global system at large and therefore little responsibility for it. Behavior threatens to undermine
the existing international economic architecture. To avoid a major train wreck, Wshdc should seek todevelop true partnership
with Beijing so as to provide joint leadership of global economic system"-e.g. trade/finance/energy/climate. Bergsten:Director,
Peterson Institute for International Economics. Essay adapted from his forthcoming, co-authored book, China's Rise:
Challenges and Opportunities (Peterson Institute and Center for Strategic and International Studies, 08). See very current:
Elizabeth C.Economy & Adam Segal "China's Olympic Nightmare: What the Games Mean for Beijing's Future"(47-56):-off.sum:"The 2008 Olympics were meant to be China's global coming-out party. But on the eve of Games, Beijing finds itself
beset by internal protests and international condemnation on issues ranging from Darfur/Tibet to air pollution/food safety. If
these challenges cannot be peacefully/successfully addressed, China risks losing its credibility as a global leader". Economy:
C.V.Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at Council on Foreign Relations. Segal:Maurice R.Greenberg Senior
Fellow for China Studies at CFR.
Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and
Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book
is often described as the greatest defense for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly
written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser
to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in
economic policy orin the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar
Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using
Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical
Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read
international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial
policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled withthe pursuit of
free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent
into trade sanctions and restrictions. [H]e argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent
bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defense of Globalization"(Oxford Univ 04), offers a
300+pp broader approach.
Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1
(Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa
(Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development
seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for
nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and
unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately
rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by
identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to
the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council
on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated
guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.
Nancy Birdsall & Arvind Subramanian"Saving Iraq From Its Oil" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4 (Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential
poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries
often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy,
since they tend to impede developmentof institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political
freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation". In both this and Fareed Zakaria
The Future of Freedom(73-6)(op.cit.) oil/minerals criticized for "richness" .[In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to
basic/processed elements(still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally
available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it(slaves? elephant tusks?
diamonds?)].Essay is (otherwise)useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when they have local oil
production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.
Matthew Bishop, "Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" in The Economist 29 Jan 00(1-22) :-this
SURVEY claims that "globalization, accelerated by the Internet, is exposing serious flaws in the world's tax systems[even
though]the taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization
"might damage tax systems so badly that it could'lead to governments being unable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens
for public services' " (5). Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens),
plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes,
while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant
Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possiblereaction: global tax-harmonization agreements;
more consumption/environment taxes.
Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global
initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with
threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world
today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all
leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African
issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no
doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all
occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level
that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions... increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus] other extreme/
increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost...
Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get
worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/
adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems ...and economic disruption required to
move to more renewable energy and sustainable manufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force]
is good news, but...change/ ambition requiredwill be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure
through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/ research under way, and firms'
lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/globalpolicy must encourage
development/ commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigateeffects of climate change...G8 can take
global lead both in making world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8 [also] opportunity to agree on
what most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively with other countries'
growing energy needs...toensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which
seeminevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main
texts/distributions differ.
Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global
initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with
threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world
today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all
leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate
change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict,
corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its
own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For democratic governments, it should, because it
matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children
still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept
utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad. [Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto
take root and spread[to globe.] Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests[while]
sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense of hopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than
in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playing increasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through
economic growth.[This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue
progress we need... coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/ growth, reduce debt, tackle
HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/ security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only
to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying
out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but
theirmain texts/distributions differ.
Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs
Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access
to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently
no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral
diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on
Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.
Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun
06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known
exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power
plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from
Chinese coal plants will lastfor decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to
global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased
coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another
[major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping
up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from
most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories
generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do
something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".
Keith Bradsher"Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:- "The sleet,bulbous-nosed new
bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they
represent the start of a 180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction, system
scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives, offering alternative to clogged highways
and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may...
control oil imports, curb fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous
numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded train will use only sixth of
energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with
bus ride, figures are half the energyand a quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost
- $15b... - madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down through western
Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles... System will start with 19 trains in each
direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90
minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need
to cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how many people use its
somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is developed around these stations and how much
tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High - Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed
high-speed rail system geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and embarrassing
ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins.
[I]t represents colossal effort toimprove transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment.
[P]roblems that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about being unable to use
credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main
casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours from Taipei".
Christopher Bright, "Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization" in Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-this essay summarizes
Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton & Co., 1998). Bright claims: "World trade has
become the primary driver of one of the most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of
foreign, invasive species are hitch-hiking through the global trading network aboard ships, planes, and railroad cars...This'
biological pollution'is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions" (50). Counter-policies largely
ineffective, control mechanisms(UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes the situation ever worse. Bright
offersmuch information: animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda:control ballast
release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).
Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians
Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the
300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each
essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My
main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are
clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by
my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting
Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines;
Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema
Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths
Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's
Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison;
Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos;
New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified
Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.
William J.Broad"Giant Leap for Private Industry: Spies in Space"New York Times 13 Oct 99:- described as "one of most
significant developments in history of space age" with potential to be "revolutionary" ,Space Imaging Inc., private company
owned by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, recently exhibited photograph, taken by Eastman Kodak camera and telescope
system, from its own satellite orbiting at 400 miles that shows details only meter in size. Hailed as world's first private spy
satellite,image sharpness reportedly rivals acts of military spy satellites. Pentagon expected to be main customer: such photos
canaid detection of countries trying to set off underground nuclear explosions in secret, as well as help geographers, urban
planners, etc. Three other companies plan to put similar satellites in orbit in a year, and perhaps dozen may fly in next decade.
Photo prices already being quoted. [Aerial photos are invaluable for environmental ends.]
William J.Broad"Maybe We Are Alone in the Universe, After All"New York Times 08 Feb 00:-in one SETI(search for
extraterrestrial intelligence) project alone, 1.6m people in 224 countries have donated 165,000 years computer time to analyse
signals from space picked up by one radio telescope. The Economist 29 Jul 00"Divide and Conquer" (77-8):brings the project
up-to-date by reporting that over 2m computers are involved and that in the 15 months since its launch 345,000 years' worth
of computer time have been put in. This article is more detailed on the enormous technical and economic potential of
"distributed computing" . For instance, the machines involved are" collectively the equivalent of a computer operating at
around ten million million calculations a second, about ten times faster than any conventional supercomputer. Meanwhile,
planets of one sort or another are being located at an accelerating rate by astronomers, while astrobiologists estimate our
galaxy could include a million advanced societies; the universe: 10 trillion. On the other hand, in their book "Rare Earth: Why
Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe" (New York: Copernicus, 2000), Drs. D.C.Brownlee and P.D.Ward claim recent
scientific data imply humans may be alone in the cosmos. They do not question that "life is an inherent property of matter,as
most scientists believe" , and" strongly encourage" SETI work to test their hypothesis, but argue Earth's "composition and
stability are extraordinarily rare. Most everywhere else, the radiation levels are too high, the right chemical elements too rare..,
the hospitable planets too few...and the rain of killer rocks toointense for life ever to have evolved into advanced communities"
, though microbes may survive in many places. Debate is lively and fascinating.
Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs
Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming
like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could
be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic
Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic
Frontier(World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.
L.Anathea Brooks & Stacy D.VanDeveer edit. Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park:
Maryland Sea Grant 97):-although focused on environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, book is not technical
for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes broad/thoughtful look at every major aspect of
environmentalism, using coastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many
global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, Nature (environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases);
Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge (scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and
Institutions (changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics);Approaching
Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter
stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.
Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International
Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international
institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the
task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a
2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that
largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power,
these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other
international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the
fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor
of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of
Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).
Lester R.Brown"Feeding Nine Billion"(115-32)in State of the World(1999)(New York: W.W.Norton, 99):-main points: World grain
harvests grew from 400m tons in 1900 to nearly 1.9b in 1998, aided by massiveirrigation (40% of food), chemical fertilizers,
huge plant-breeding advances, short-stem wheat/rice, hybridcorn - such cropland assets being globally available. Yet 840m
people are hungry/malnourished(19,000 children die daily from effects of malnutrition). Other two basic food-supply systems
- oceanic fisheries andrangelands - appear to have reached global carrying capacity, and per capita grain production
hasdecreased 7% since 1984. Meanwhile the current 6b world population is expected to grow to 9b about 2050, during which
period net global harvested area is expected to be almost unchanged, and to continuedropping per capita to 0.07
hectares(1950=0.23). Mounting water scarcity has reduced irrigated area per capita by 6% since 1978, simultaneously lowering
fertilizing capacity - and levelling off for lack of further benefit. Remaining route to increased food productivity - plant breeding
- could raise drought-, disease-, insect-resistance and salt-tolerance, but now little gain is physiologically possible for wheat,
corn and ricein terms of further raising crop yields. It all means that eradication of hunger and malnutrition now may depend
heavily on demand-side initiatives: slowing population growth and using grain and water more efficiently.
Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate
change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted
individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and
Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point;
Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food
Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures
and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry;
Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses);
5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts;
Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health
Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise;
Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing
Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8.
Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting
Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well
(Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Proteir More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain;
Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban
Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning
the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy;
Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells
and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy:
2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response
to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).
John Browne, "Beyond Kyoto" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-substantial, sympathetic, expert arguments by BP
executive that, as 1997 treaty now blocked, its vital action be updated. "Kyoto Protocolis coming unraveled. Despite nearly
a decade of effort, it may not even enter into force as a binding instrument...Canada, Japan, and European Union...are not on
track to meet their commitments[and US haswithdrawn entirely.]...Clear-eyed realism is essential. But display...is mistaken
reaction. There is scope for different and more positive view...First, it has become obvious that Kyoto was simply starting point
of very long [progressing] endeavour. Second, we have improved, if still imperfect, knowledge of challengesand uncertainties
climate change presents, as well as better understanding of time scales involved. Third,many countries and companies have
had experience reducing emissions and have proved that suchreductions can be achieved without destroying competitiveness
or jobs. Fourth, science and technologyhave advanced on multiple fronts...Finally, public awareness of issue has grown - not
just in developed world but all around the globe. [It] is becoming clear that reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is soluble
problem, and that mechanisms for delivering solutions are within reach. In that spirit of cautious optimism, it is time to move
beyond current Kyoto debate." Bulk of text amplifies each of five points.
Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied
books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible,
answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny,
and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly
illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT
review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial
and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and
many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference
on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in
this very unstable world.
Zbigniew Brzezinski "Hegemonic Quicksand" The National Interest Winter 03/04(5-16):-long article on future instability
excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership. Claims unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing
similar to past "European Balkans" )is region between Europe and Far East. "For next several decades, most volatile and
dangerous region of world - with explosive potential to plunge world into chaos - will be crucial swathe[from approximately
Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and fromRusso-Kazakh border to southern Afghanistan]... Here that America could slide into collision
with world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. Two
eventualities together could then put prevailing American global hegemony at risk.[C]hallengeAmerica now confronts, dwarfs
what it faced half-century ago in Western Europe [since]to promote global security will be pacification and then cooperative
organization of region that contains world's greatest concentration of political injustice, social deprivation, demographic
congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But region also contains most of world's oil and natural gas...In 2020 area
projected to produce roughly 42m barrels of oil per day - 39% of global production total...No self-evident answers to such basic
questions as how and with whom America should be engaged in helping to stabilize area, pacifyit and eventually cooperatively
organize it." Then notes that some states in area could be US potential key partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four
are then examined in detail but ruled out for various reasons. "Ultimately US can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe.
Although it will need help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither likely at this stage to become heavily
engaged. Only Europe...potential capacity in political, military and economic realms to pursue jointly with US task of engaging
various Eurasian peoples...US and Europe together represent array of physical and experientialassets with capacity to make
decisive difference in shaping political future of Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur, however, if expected
to consist of simply following US lead" .Latter portionof paper discusses whether and how US and Europe can work together
in improving issues of area. Specific attention made to problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, Gulf states, Caucasus and
Central Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to" need to contain both proliferation of WMD and terrorist epidemic."
Paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes quicksand only more dangerous."
Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European
supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination
of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional
cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided
largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic
sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of
cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second
Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.
Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb
10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his
first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of
strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three
urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate
test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic
direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world
that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an
embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic
breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three
Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.
R.A.Buchanan The Power of the Machine: The Impact of Technology from 1700 to the Present (London: Penguin Books
94):-approach differs from, say, Bell, Drucker or Toffler(op.cit.)in that, in analysing accelerating transformation of society, it
deals more with physical than societal changes, with new structures more than their social implications. While UN actions
must reflect both trends-and resulting concerns- "most pervasive/persistent stimulus to change has been technological
combination of scientific discovery and technical innovation" .For truly revolutionary example of technology being explored,
see K.Eric DrexlerEngines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday 87):-genuine
feasibility of creating assembly machines smaller than living cells generated increasing attention from 1990s because of their
multiple uses. For an excellent 18-years-later account of global nanotechnology activities/anticipation, see Natasha Loder
"Small Wonders: A Survey of Nanotechnology" The Economist01 Jan 05(1-12):-key point "Nanotechnology will give humans
greater control of matter at tiny scales. That is a good thing." Enormous, if scientifically basic, concept behind booming
business initiatives isexplained, and" point about nanotechnology is that it sets out deliberately to exploit strange properties
found in these very small worlds." Four other essays summarized: "Apply Here: Where very small thingscan make big
difference." "Fear and Loathing: Some of worries about nanotechnology are rational." "Downsizing: Companies both large
and small hope to make big money from tiny particles." "Handle with Care: Nanotechnology promises great benefits, but
safeguards will be essential." Drexler's idea" that one day all manufacturing would be done by very tiny robots" had raised
terror; but now activity/research quite specific/monitored. Survey concludes" idea of 'democratising' nanotechnology - giving
ordinary people more of say in what areas of S&T should be pursued - unlikely to be helpful.[N]ext to impossible to slow down
or control some areas of science in one country when world so interconnected...Nanotechnology, like any new discovery,
offers both risks and rewards...Scientists should...work with as little hindrance as possible."
Lucius Caflisch "Regulation of the Uses of International Waterways: The Contribution of the United Nations" (3-35)in Martin
Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work(Westport: Praeger 98):-Charterrequires UNGA "initiate studies and make
recommendations for purpose of:..encouraging progressivedevelopment of international law and its codification." Much
effective work done by expert 34-memberInternational Law Commission whose drafts passed to UNGA for decision. This
greatly increased body of international law at time when need for it expanding. Describes in lay terms how newly explosive
issue, "development, apportionment and use of water resources[and]one of world's major economic and social problems"
handled in UN. Growing demand, hence rising competition for scarce resource made it delicate exercise.
Frances Cairncross "Environmental Pragmatism" Foreign Policy No.95(Summer 94)(35-52):- recommendation is summed up
briefly: a "combination of appropriate government policies and technological change is thebest hope of fusing economic
growth and environmental protection" . A hard-nosed approach(water problems before climate), but her main priority has
become to use economic carrots and sticks to motivate sustainable actions.
Ted Galen Carpenter edit. Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention (Washington: Cato Institute
97):-Cato aims to further "traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, and peace." Libertarian view
inclines it to oppose multilateralism (it inter alia limits US global freedom of action)and all constraints on free enterprise.
Topics: UN in Perspective; Peacemaker-Peacekeeper; Bureaucracy-Funding- Corruption; Social and Environmental Agenda;
Economic Development Role. 18 essays clearly stress Cato views. Only five sympathetic to UN aims/activities; 10 or so
reasonable, even if bit selective or broad, in criticism. Last deliberately distort, and in their narrow-minded, selfish jingoism,
exhibit true "delusions of grandeur": John Bolton: " [Clinton] forgot that UN was instrument to be used to advance America's
foreign policy interests, not to engage in international social work..." (51; his emphasis)! Provides rationales of many US
anti-UN views.
Edward Carr"The Sea: A Second Fall"The Economist 23 May 98(1-18):-broad if necessarily concise Survey of all major trends
and problems relating to the oceans - today and anticipated. Among varied subjects covered are: increases in its human
exploitation and our dependency; end of "unlimited" utilization, and last great hunting-gathering culture; need for same sort
of global and state controls as exist for land use; vast areas of unknown living and mineral resources; pollution(man-made
and natural), algal blooms, coast and reef destruction; sealife and its nutrients; (over)fishing: new expansion areas and
controls(world's fishingfleet is 53% superfluous); ocean trends and currents(El Nino, global warming); shipping(see Griffiths
et al. - op.cit); new lessons to be learned.
Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale
Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder -
to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge
relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This
aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's
expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits
closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in
narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in
the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through
the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a
position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be
disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's
future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities
...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably
bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are
all connected".
Jennifer Clapp, "The Privatization of Global Environmental Governance: ISO 14000 and the Developing World" Global
Governance Vol.4/No.3 (Jul-Sep 1998):- several global trends are discussed: (1) the increasing number and recognition of
voluntary codes of conduct for private firms and standard-setting bodies; (2) the additional mixed public-private systems for
creating international rules and procedures; (3) the profoundimpact of such standards on international environmental law;
and (4) the small LDC role in the process, despite its major implications for both LDC laws and trade. A study of the seminal
International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14000 series of environmental management standards serves to illustrate
the above important trends.
Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several
respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s), (un)popularity, (dis)unity. Describes how "most
successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity,
swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having
acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional
dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over
whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion
to handle.
Walter J.Clemens Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global
Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first
looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take- All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New
World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and
Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become
Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders
Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West
Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics:
Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human
Rights:Sham orRevolution? (17)Alternative Futures.
Walter J.Clemens Jr,"From AD 2000 to AD 2025: Six Alternative Futures" International Journal Vol.LIV/No.2(Spring
99):-interesting/balanced exercise in futurology using relatively conservative global views to create believable: (1)Unipolar
Stability: benign US hegemony extends most current/surprise-freeglobal trends.(2) Fragmented Chaos: environmental-
pandemic-autarkic fears come true; global injusticeprovokes anger/violence; WMDs proliferate; China turns unstable; all
reflecting a low level of global cooperation.(3) Hegemon Challenged: China becomes powerful bully; either intimidates or is
faced down by US.(4)Bipolar Cooperation: China turns democratic/cooperative.(5)Multipolar Cooperation: Most countries turn
democratic/ prosperous.(6)Global Governance Without World Government: trans-national civil societyand governments share
powers at many levels. Interdependence may force the last.
Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat (Ebury Press 04):-book not
available here, but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04"The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet"
(83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce;greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocricy,
ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish
are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor...As man's appetite for fish has grown, sohas
ability to catch them. Modern gadgets...enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before.[But]signs
of growing scarcity everywhere[,and]most efforts to manage fish stocks or controloverfishing failed.[Hence fishermen]moved
on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited. [D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though
some kinds of fish...can now be farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or...mining. [I]nternational agencies
monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail. [Lots of unneeded] 'by-catch' generally flung back into sea. Waste
is appalling; cruelty equally vile. Trawlers... wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out in... excellent book... He exposes
follies of fishermen, politicians,celebrity chefs[and] anyone with access to common resource has interest in over- exploiting
it... In time farming may help" [but also morecareful supervision and management].
Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey:
"Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not
nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability,
democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African
National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households
to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent.
However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of
impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and
now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to
crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most
impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding
their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at
any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor
and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants
into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC
economic]prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough
jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social
grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly
infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve
unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local
level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians
discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda,
and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union
and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's
leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".
Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ
Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of
aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are
very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is,
virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we
have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing
countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are
succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it
we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to
tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade
policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within
the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.
Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec
08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices
down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away
with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly
aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford
Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.
Gordon Conway, The Doubly Green Revolution: Food for All in the 21st Century (London: Penguin Books, 1997):-an expert
survey of food problems and potential in developing countries. It offers specific advice oneradicating hunger and rapidly
reducing the 750m undernourished(as pledged at the World Food Summit)through a complex but realistic second Green
Revolution. Topics: global hunger and poverty; 2020prospects; specific needs; the Green Revolution's successes; where it
missed the poor; pollution from pesticides and fertilizer; production trends and priorities; biotechnology; sustainable
agriculture; farmers' input; pest control; nutrients; soil and water management; other resources; food security.
Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton
Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary,
and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future". Cook is Senior Fellow
for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously
optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its
east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens
if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic
in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU
accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?:
Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for
economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has
argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the
better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of
purpose/confidence in itself."
Gwyneth Cravens Power To Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy(New York: Alfred A.Knopf 07):-valuable source
at a time when nuclear power once again gaining global popularity in light of climate change threats from fossil fuel emissions.
While text is 450pp long and partly technological/scientific, it appears carefully and honestly drafted, and able to be used
"here-and-there" as a source. Editorial summary is itself impressive, e.g."...On the nuclear tour, Cravens converses with
scientists from many disciplines, public health and counterterrorism experts, engineers, and researchers who study both the
harmful and benign effects of radiation; she watches remote-controlled robotic manipulators unbolt a canister of spent
uranium fuel inside a 'hot cell' bathed in eerie orange light; observes the dark haze from fossil-fuel combustion obscuring
once-pristine... skies and the leaky, rusted pipes and sooty puddles in a coal-fired plant; glimpses rainbows made by salt dust
in the deep subterranean corridors of a working nuclear waste repository. She refutes the major arguments against nuclear
power one by one... And she demonstrates how, time and again, political fearmongering and misperceptions about risk have
trumped science in the dialogue about the feasibility of nuclear energy. In the end, we see how nuclear power has been
successfully and economically harnessed... around the globe to become the single largest displacer of greenhouse gases,
and how its overall risks and benefits compare with those of other energy sources. [A]n eloquent, convincing argument for
nuclear power as a safe energy source and an essential deterrent to global warming".
Chester A.Crocker & Fen Osler Hampson, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International
Conflict(Washington: US Institute of Peace Press 96):-42 expert/practical essays(675pp)offeringnew facts/thinking regarding
global challenges, and how resulting conflicts might be met(e.g. by UN).Challenges include: many weak(or failed)states; ethnic
conflicts; religio-cultural militancy; populationpressures; resource crises(shortages, disputes);global competition; radical
military technology(Adams op.cit.);mega-terrorism. Stress on preventive action.
Richard Dawkins, Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder(New York: Houghton Mifflin
98):-assumption is that people are increasingly aware of global scale of many human problems. Yet rapidly expanding
knowledge of scientific facts and forces not only created suchawareness, but many global problems themselves. Also
science's understanding of human evolution can bring profound feelings of cosmic insignificance and purposelessness. Yet
many specialists in fields draw quite different conclusions. Dawkins is one and may well be best person clarifying science for
non-experts. His other famous books:Climbing Mount Improbable(New York: W.W.Norton, 96);The Selfish Gene: New
Edition(Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1992);The Blind Watchmaker(Harlow: Longman S&T 86). More thansimply populariser of
science, Dawkins has capacity to explain variety of complex and debated conceptsin easily understood way, with amusing
examples. His clear priority and speciality is to defend Darwinism, and educate non-specialists about latest scientific thinking
on how and why evolution takes place. His 1998 book has particular aim of demonstrating that purely scientific view of life
and universe need not be empty/ purposeless, but can be extremely uplifting. However, he offers fascinating new information
in several fields. For short(160pp)explanation of evolution and its implications, in Science Masters Series, see River Out of
Eden: A Darwinian View of Life(New York: Basic Books 95). Here Dawkins carefully addressesseveral sincere "Creation-"
and/or "Purpose-related" critiques of modern evolution and biological theory. He ends discussion of how "replication"
transformed Earth with hope that better understanding of our place in universe "might have some beneficial effects upon our
normally parochial little consciousnesses" .
Richard Dawkins The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Life(London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson 04/Phoenix of Orion
Books 05):-author's description of the 700 pages describing this planet's living history since life began: "Tale is a pilgrimage:
a journey of four billion years. We, modern human beings, are the pilgrims, and we are travelling back in time to seek out our
ancestors. Simultaneously every other living creature is setting off on its own journey with the same mission. Each pilgrim
tells its tale along the way, and covers the processes involved in the unfolding of life on Earth". The 40+ chapters describe
in turn the form(s) of life progressively in or from more distant periods, offering the best available scientific knowledge/theory,
including of course many fossils, and their estimated dates. While much of the necessary vocabulary used is complex,
Dawkins writes generously - and often amusingly - for non-scientist readers. Among the many favourable reviews carried in
the introduction is one by John Cornwell of Sunday Times: "Beautifully written... Dawkins's account cites a stunning array
of biologists past and present. No other book gives such an impression of sheer intellectual vitality and pluralism among the
past century's evolutionary scientists. Virtually every page exemplifies a memorable insight into the strangeness and
prodigality of nature, its culs-de-sac and its extraordinary leaps". I have read the long text, but each chapter can be read alone.
Francis M.Deng et al. Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa(Washington: Brookings 96):- conclusion
of 7-volume project to help governments/international community deal with conflicts in least stable continent(Reader
op.cit.).Probes African states' responsibility: balance sovereignty sanctity against transborder political/economic/moral
relevance of human rights violations/internal violence. Project concludes UN has unique role to play in Africa as both mediator
and healer.
Anthony DePalma," The'Slippery Slope'of Patenting Farmers' Crops" New York Times 24 May 00:-as noted elsewhere, much
of the controversy over genetically modified organisms(GMO), derives from their high costs in R&D and the consequent
concern of biotechnology companies to ensure "adequate returns" throughpatents(or intellectual property rights(IPRs); see
Paarlberg)relating to their products. The most infamouspatent defenses were "terminator genes" in cereal seeds that could
not reproduce, and thus prevented re-seeding(Economist 9 Oct 99). This ensured annual seed purchases -and prohibitive costs
in LDCs. DePalma reports CIMMYT, the Green Revolution's famous non-profit International Maize and Wheat Improvement
Center in Mexico, though founded to make high-yield products available free to LDCs, has had to start patenting its work as
a defensive tactic to block attempts by others to patent its discoveries and thus keep small farmers from using them. Before
companies/ countries contribute to CIMMYT's research, they also require patents in their own self-defense. A consolation is
that reproductive genes will be included in seeds distributed in LDCs. Another GMO patent-related development is reported
in DePalma/Simon Romero," Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets, and Brazil May Be Next" NYT 16 May. TheUS, Brazil and
Argentina together grow 80% of the world's 157m tonnes of soybeans annually, but have different rules for GM varieties. In
the US several conditions must be met: for Monsanto, farmers pay a feefor each bag of seed, agree not to save seed for the
following year( "terminator" seeds were dropped after an outcry), and accept inspections if they claim to have stopped using
the seed. In Argentina, where perhaps90% of the soybean crop is genetically altered, but its patents are not recognized, there
are effectively no rules. In Brazil, use of altered varieties is not (yet) legal, but they are clearly smuggled in; up to 30% of
soybeans may already be uncontrolled GMO. A "global regulatory mechanism" is obviously needed. Meanwhile, US
regulations were tightened further. Associated Press reported on May 3"F.D.A. Announces New Steps for Regulation of
Biotech Food" , according to which the US Food and Drug Administration willrequire biotech companies to notify it at least
four months before releasing "new genetically engineered ingredients for food and animal feed" , and to provide their research
data. The FDA will also set" truthful and informative" standards for food processors wanting to label products made with or
without such ingredients. Also mainly in response to new consumer concerns, the North American retail food industry and
exporters are facing novel problems in separating out GM products, because of their explosive increase in use and saving.
Some major food companies have stopped sales of selected GM-based products, according to David Barboza in" Modified
Foods Put Companies in a Quandary" NYT 3 Jun. However, none has found it feasible to abandon biotech ingredients entirely,
since about 70% of US grocery-store food may have been made with genetically altered crops. A related dilemma has arisenin
Europe. Donald G. McNeil Jr.," Anxiety on Genetically Altered Seed Spreads in Europe" NYT 20 May, reports on the divergent
reactions of the British, French and Swedish governments on discovering that a tiny amount in one seed variety in an order
of long-planted Canadian canola had inadvertently carried a genetically-modified trait.
Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign
Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that
autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to
defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain
deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict
resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests
across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of
Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics
and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After
Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.
Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis
of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page
book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived
from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political
intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim
to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather
than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim
world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to
legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage...
is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual
conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world.
Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous
new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity.
[Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent
terrorist movement".
Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating
book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees
cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected:
(1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing
specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical
or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents
[depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers
of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.
Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential
600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors:
environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its
environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are
brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become
overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past
Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi
and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse
Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide;
(11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining'
Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the
Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final
five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.
Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of
well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/ objective look at globalized world production, trade,
financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge
and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies,
individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history,
nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment;
different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, service industries;
effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.
Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press
07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World":
book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the
future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To
achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success
lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but
interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough
but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's
book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and
institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence
of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what
are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top)
governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.
Philippe Douste-Blazy & Daniel Altman"A Few Dollars at a Time: How to Tap Consumers for Development"(2-7) Foreign Affairs
Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-official summary:"This year, consumers purchasing airline tickets will have a chance to at the same
time contribute to the global fight against HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. This initiative is part of a new movement called
innovative financing, which seeks to share a tiny fraction of globalization's enormous gains with sick people in poor
countries". Final sentence of impressive text:"The backers of innovative financing mechanisms, such as UNITAID, have two
main responsibilities: to help fight diseases through novel ways of raising money and also to ensure that their success does
not undermine the existing efforts [-government aid budgets-] they set out to strengthen". Douste-Blazy, who served as
France's Foreign Minister 2005-07, is currently the United Nation's Special Advisor for Innovative Financing for Development
and Chair of UNITAID. Altman is President of North Yard Economics, a not-for-profit consulting firm serving developing
countries. Article is adapted from their book on innovative financing, which will be published in Jan 10 by PublicAffairs.
Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international
team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of
children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many
guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double
aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the
Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural
development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium
Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known as crusader for the idea that within a generation,
rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion". Other elements are described: the
serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied
analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers
Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in
emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep
05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the
Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an
objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs
to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis and
recommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply
entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for
developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the
right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's
passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development
aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes
team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need,
but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good
government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren
Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief
coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced
Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for
Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,
records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.
Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:- item leads discouraging
collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory
sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th
anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been
discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The
United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing
poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and
squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly
sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US
ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and
child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs],
they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn.
US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed...
Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders
are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by
two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five
years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved
scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders
gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates,
however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren
Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders
who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN
[14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered
down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He
balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation
canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute -
and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls
to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited
not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed
to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national
income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder
for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep
05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want,
persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp
divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom',
addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic,
global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative
suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated
document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding
Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face
genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought
by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted";
AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help
restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt
at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action
on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago:
whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is
peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the
strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents
of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win
consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep
05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community
to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell
his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N.
Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are
not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds,
World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and
Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President
Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this
week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major
reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor
of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions
for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their
difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster
cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized
nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan
defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for
world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding
in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the
daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep
05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform
of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and
South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and
rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans
had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore
U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and
nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit,
diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle
their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both
become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in
power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will
on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially
through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points
to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged
as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most
important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing
and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion
people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all
in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than
Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty,
to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put
forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form
of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and
line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing
nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only
by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding
Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights
by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other
atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared
down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such
as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer
evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and
manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US
wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success
appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by
countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials
insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried
to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when
it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi
Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human
Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies
consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism
and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the
budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number
of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries
see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of
Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World
leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this
opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and
noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be
unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international
community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights]
council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement
of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom
she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US
concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still
Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic,
his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for
emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They
complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready.
Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more
than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of
recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished
standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had
significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to
withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are
committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State
Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach
had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto
UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great
discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold
funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless
textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only
way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues
and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version
refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive
reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in
Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of
Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a
threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work
of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the
positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to
the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians
from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set
in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on
how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its
decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs
53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation
existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT
18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan,
India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional
group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of
Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how
or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse,
arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of
WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to
become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats
meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds
vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent
members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion,
191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting
one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five
permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from
Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans
insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five
UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of
comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define
terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines
of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone
considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for
governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep
05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich
countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said
[18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said
they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they
were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive
on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely
acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN
Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the
millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for
Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the
nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad,
said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa...
Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and
responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles
some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those
considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to
sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more
assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's
hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we
wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with
obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected
to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has
passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed
measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT
30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to
take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of
about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".
Celia W.Dugger"Overfarming African Land Is Worsening Hunger Crisis"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"The degradation of farmland across
sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated at an ominous rate over past decade, deepening hunger crisis that already afflicts more
than 240m Africans, according to a study released [30 Mar].Three quarters of Africa's farmland severely depleted of basic
nutrients needed to grow crops, compared with 40% just a decade ago, study found. African farmers can afford only fraction
of fertilizers needed to replenish their increasingly barren fields. Traditionally, farmers cleared land, grew crops for a few
harvests, then let fields lie fallow for 10 or 15 years to rejuvenate as they moved on to clear more land... But as they try to feed
rapidly growing population, farmers instead grow crop after crop, sapping soil's fertility.'Topsoil is blown away by wind and
washed away by rains' , said president International Fertilizer Development Center, nonprofit agricultural aid organization
which produced study. If this process continues unabated, crop yields in Africa will fall as much as 30% in next 15 years, even
as region'spopulation continues to grow rapidly... Africa... likely to face more frequent famines and become evermore
dependent on food aid/imports. Farmers... increasingly clearing forests as well as savannas...Already, farmland in Africa yields
less than a third amount of grain of that in Asia and Latin America... 'Wemust feed our soils' , said Nigeria's president... Jun
meeting on Africa's fertilizer needs expected to drawleading experts... as well as donors. Foreign aid aimed at improving
agricultural productivity in Africadeclined sharply in 1990's and has begun to recover only in recent years. About two-thirds
of Africa's750m people depend on agriculture for income/employment. Fertilizer... far too expensive for Africa's small and often
impoverished farmers - costs two to six times world average. African farmers use less than 10% as much as Asian farmers
do. Lowering price no simple task... Roads make transportation difficult/costly... Green revolution to Africa would require:
functioning road network/credit for farmers/ extension agents to teach new methods/ better irrigation/ retailers to sell fertilizers/
improved seed varieties... Would also mean combating corruption". Wealthiest countries have pledged to increase aid to
Africa.
Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and broad publications being
written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The
widely-known author of this book, however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly,
even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a number of the great powers,
climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would
expect this to be the case, because each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats'
to its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant probability of wars, including even
nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international
cooperation to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover). The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible and worrisome
scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in a region suffering from the experience of
climate change. The other is the author's carefully quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008
personal interviews.
Gregg Easterbrook A Moment on the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism(New York: Penguin 95):-
environmentalist concerned with rate of population growth etc. nevertheless argues: those who overstate likelihood, scale
or imminence of eco-disaster will ultimately hurt their own case. For somewhat tongue-in-cheek argument that doom scenarios
come in predictable cycles, plus Simon/Club of Rome debate(Meadows op.cit.)see "Environmental Scares" The Economist
20 Dec 97(19-21).For later/more objective books on history of man's effect on environment, and related US political
developmentsrespectively, favourable Reviews in Economist 18 Nov 00 "The Environment: Earth Shattering" (101-2).Books:
John R. McNeill Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World(New York: Norton
00);Philip Shabecoff Earth Rising: American Environmentalism in the 21st Century(New York: Island Press 00).Both expect
major eco-activity now.
Erik Eckholm, "Environment Conference Agrees to Help Poor Nations Protect Ozone" New York Times 4 Dec 99:-129-country
UN environmental conference in Beijing has agreed that additional $440 million will be provided over next three years to help
poor countries stop producing/using chemicals that harm ozone layer. 1987 Montreal Protocol aims at eliminating all
ozone-depleting substances, especially chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs), that thin protective atmospheric layer of ozone that blocks
harmful ultra-violet rays.Developed countries have almost completely converted to CFC replacements for use in
air-conditioners/ refrigerators, but poor countries(Brazil, China, India)were given until 2010 to stop their production/use and
had already received $1 billion to cover costs. Although world use of major ozone-destroyers has now declined by 85%, ozone
holes/thinning continue to grow due to slow atmospheric effects.
The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text
beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).
The Economist 14 Mar 98"Moonrakers: Who Own the Moon?"(71):-discovery of water on moon makes its exploitation much
more feasible, and revives the issue of ownership. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty states moon belongs to all mankind, but is
legally vague. An attempt in 1979 to draft a Moon Agreement using the same approach as the LOS seabed principles failed.
Commercial options are already under study in the US.
The Economist 04 Apr 98"Squeezing Water from the Sea"(85-6):-conflict over the ever-shrinking per capita supply of usable
water is widely seen as a major evolving global issue(see Annan). This item describes the status and costs of two major
current means of desalinization. Distillation heats salty water and catches condensed water vapour; distilled water costs about
$1/cubic metre. Reverse osmosis forces salty water through a composite membrane, holding back salt, etc.; the product costs
about $.6/cubic metre. Conservationis even cheaper: see issue of 25 Mar 00.
The Economist 18 Apr 98:-an editorial and two articles all dealing constructively with the economics of environmental
problems:"Cleaner Energy: It is Political Poison, but a Carbon Tax Still Makes Sense"(17):-to make carbon taxes acceptable,
balance them with tax cuts; "When Virtue Pays a Premium: Renewable Energy Has Long Been the Fuel of the Future. Could
It Be That the Future Is At Last About to Happen?"(57-8):- even without carbon tax or subsidies renewable energy is becoming
competitive; "An Invaluable Environment: Statisticians Are Trying to Adjust Measures of National Wealth for Pollution and
Depleted Resources. This Turns Out to Be All But Impossible"(75)-assigning GDP value to eco-costs and assets is rough and
selective.
The Economist 09 May 98"The Season of El Nino"(35-8):-general survey of multiple effects, probably of 1997-8 El Nino, over
whole of Latin America. They have included disastrous droughts and fires, storms and floods, throughout the entire area from
Mexico to Patagonia. These have had a permanent economic, health and political impact.
The Economist 30 May 98"Biotech's Secret Garden"(75-7):-survey of several current advances in developing new drugs from
natural substances. This is a major subject of discussion in UN environment debates due to the ownership issues it raises.
The article also reports new skills in plant biotesting. 20 Feb 99: "Ethnobotany: Shaman Loses Its Magic" (77): - the article
reports that "Shaman Pharmaceuticals, the leading proponent of the `ethnobotanical'approach to drug discovery - an attempt
to identify the active molecules in folk remedies, in order to turn them into modern prescription medicines - threw in the towel."
Shaman, Merck, other companies, and even the US government, while carefully following the rules of the Convention on
Biological Diversity all over the world, but particularly in rainforests, have found little or nothing of value. Meanwhile the
normal molecular screening process has become so advanced that "it will soon be possible to check molecules for promising
biological activity at a rate of 100,000 a day" , so screening everything is now faster and cheaper than seeking shortcuts from
folk healers.
The Economist 13 Jun 98"In Defence of the Demon Seed: Genetically Modified Foods"(13-4):- editorial results from EU
objections to import of genetically engineered plants from North America, but has global implications. It supports imports as
being no different from products of traditional plant-breeding, but recommends more scientific and educational information.
"Food Fights" (79-80) describes the actual process involved, widespread with some US crops. Relatively simple, it offers
significant yield and viability gains - thus critical for LDCs. 20 Feb 99: - "Frankenstein Foods" (17) Editorial again argues,
following an uproar in the British press, that "Genetically modified foods can deliver great benefits. It would be wrong to slow
their development." "Seeds of Discontent" and "Genetically Modified Free Trade" (75-6) report on the scientific, media and
trade debates, and argue that concerns over safety are misplaced; the beneficiaries are the patent-holders, farmers, and the
environment.
The Economist 27 Jun 98"Taiga! Taiga! Burning Bright"(83-5):-while more attention is paid to preserving the world's tropical
rainforests, this article notes the equal importance of northern conifers. Using Russia (which has the world's largest total
forested area) as example, its coniferous "taiga" and neighbouring broad-leafed forests help to regulate the climate by acting
as "sinks" for carbon dioxide, storing 500m tonnes of carbon a year. More by luck than good management, major taiga
exploitation is only now beginning, so the North American conservation experience (e.g. long-term leases) should be
promoted.
The Economist 11 Jul 98"Absurdly Green"(15) and "Energy Policy: A Nuclear Waste"(64-5)- Swedes voted in 1980 to phase
out all nuclear power gradually, but the government now plans to shut down two reactors well before the end of their working
lives. These essays argue that: the plants are hugely expensive to build or demolish, but extremely cheap to run, so closing
them is very bad economics; renewable energy can replace only a fraction of the lost power, which will have to be made up
by coal or gas, thus producing much greenhouse gas; the volume of radioactive waste will be little affected; the reactors are
very safe, unlike former Soviet reactors, from whom Nordics may now have to demand more power. The best safety investment
for the Swedes is to improve these.
The Economist 06 Mar 99"Drowning in Oil"(19) and "Cheap Oil: The Next Shock?"(23-5):-editorial and a major essay on the
prospects and implications of oil remaining cheaper in real terms than in 1973 (the first OPEC oil shock). On the basis of
normal long-term commodity price trends and lower production costs, the price will probably stay low (currently $10 a barrel
). The reason is that since OPEC forced prices up, and kept them high by limiting production, higher-cost fields outside the
Middle East became economic. Now domestic budget pressure on Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, may make them
ignore unworkable quotas totally and produce whatever they can sell. This could drive prices as low as $5 a barrel and make
some other fields uneconomic. While unlikely to raise global demand greatly (owing to concern over CO2, more natural gas
use, and new energy-saving techniques), it would increase world dependence on an unstable region.
The Economist: 13 Mar 99"The Caspian's Black Holes"(78):-reports that "no significant new oil reserves have been found
offshore in Azerjaiban since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and now some of the [oil] consortia...are...going home" . It would
have global strategic and economic impact if theCaspian basin turns out not to be a massive new field. In any event, in the
17 Apr 99 issue"The Caucasus: By-Passing Russia"(55-6) reports that a new oil pipeline and rail route have just been opened
joining Baku, Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea to twin Georgian ports on the Black Sea coast. From thereproducts can be carried
directly to Ukraine (Odessa), Romania (Constantia), or via the Bosporus to theMediterranean. The main significance is that
both Russia and Iran are avoided and the routes are direct and shorter, so strategically/economically advantageous. They may
also raise Western influence in the area. For inter alia a good geopolitical account of this current variation on "Great Game",
see Robert M.Cutler, "Cooperative Energy Security in the Caspian Region: A New Paradigm for Sustainable
Development?"Global Governance Vol.5/No.2(Apr-Jun 1999). He even has a win-win solution. Economist 10 Jul 99"Of Politics
and Pipelines"(54):-on a 700 billion cubic meter gas find in Azerbaijan, which again upsets local geopolitics. A US-supported
gas line across the Caspian from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean is already
planned, avoiding Russia completely. If for once all governments can cooperate, this line could also carry the Azerbaijani gas,
and further increase Western influence. Russia meanwhile plans a Russia-Turkey Black Sea gas line, the world's deepest
under-sea line.
The Economist 27 Mar 99"OPEC: Still Kicking?"(63-4):-analytical essay predicts likely failure of a new accord among 12 large
oil producers, including several outside OPEC, to cut their output by 2.1mbd over the next year. Some argue this agreement
should be taken seriously because, unlike many short-lived OPEC ministers' deals, it was a treaty among heads of state. Oil
prices have already risen. Yet most oil producers' urgent need for increased incomes, the 12's disparate membership (e.g.
Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Norway), delayed-marketing options, the irresponsibility of Iraq and Iran, and the desperate straits of
Russia and Nigeria, all create an overwhelming probability of non-compliance. The Saudis may be unable to hold the line again.
The Economist 23 Apr 99 "Fuel Cells Hit the Road" (77-8):-carefully-worded article reports on significant advances in
emission-free vehicle motors." A fuel cell works by chemically combining hydrogen with oxygen from the air. The result is
energy in the form of moving electrons, which is used to power an electric motor; and water, the fuel cell's principal waste
product" .Electric motor runs vehicle which effectively produces no pollution - and California requires 10% "zero-emission
vehicles" by 2004. Hencefuel-cell cars by Daimler-Chrysler, Ford and Ballard Power Systems(" Canadian firm that has been
developing fuel cells for use in vehicles for several years" )demonstrated to California government, and 45 of their cars and
buses will be road-tested for four years mainly in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Toyota andGeneral Motors just signed pact to
develop modern "alternatives" including vehicles powered by fuel cells. Also, since hydrogen is an explosive gas" with a
ridiculously low boiling point" , oil companies Shell, Texaco and Arco producing petrol-less methanol to enable hydrogen to
be made "'on the fly'...and it is thischemical...put in[gas]tanks" and available at selected gas stations. Active participants have
several other problems to solve. For instance, fuel cells need to start more rapidly in cold weather, and widespreadownership
will require efficient infrastructure. Ballard's design" is a polymer membrane coated on either side with platinum electrodes(the
platinum also acts as a catalyst). On one side of the membrane, hydrogenis decomposed into its constituent electrons and
protons. The electrons disappear into the electrode, while the protons pass through the membrane. On the other side the
electrons return via the second electrode, having passed through the coils of an electric motor that drives the wheels of the
car. Here, they recombinewith the protons, and also oxygen atoms, to make water" . Explains high cost of building fuel cell
engine now and need to lower it. Cost cases described.
The Economist 01 May 99"Sticky Labels"(Genetically Modified Organisms - GMOs)(75-6): - this subject (The Economist 13 Jun
98 op. cit. has previous articles) became a global UN issue when the WTO decided to use Codex Alimentarius standards in
international disputes over food trade. Codex was established by the FAO and WHO to recommend minimum global standards
on food safety. The EU ban on imports ofUS hormone-treated beef defies Codex's scientific assessment that it is safe; hence
the WTO rules it anillegal trade barrier. The EU riposte is a proposal for mandatory labelling of any food containing GMOs
"simply to provide choice" . However, repeated and effective testing/segregation could add 30% to costs,hardly any processed
food now is 100% GMO-free, and new GMOs offer major human health benefits, so a "fix" is yet possible. For a report on the
scientific debate on hormone-treated meat, see The Economist15 May 99(94).
The Economist 08 May 99"Come Together, If You Can"(48):-summarizes report by UN Development Programentitled "Global
Public Goods" (Oxford Univ. Press 99)urging greater global information exchange, particularly for benefit of poor who suffer
most for lack of it in information society. Proposal is to systematically record common problems and solutions, and to assess
every nation's total exports, including ideas/patents/pollution/diseases/crime/other `externalities' so that "fuller picture
could...be drawn of inequality/depletion of natural resources/financial instabilities/other threats to development" . "Knowledge
bank" could then be set up to give poor states better access to new ideas and technology, assist policymakers, and promote
international cooperation, e.g. for law enforcement. Compiling information clearly in global interest, and(computer)distribution
costs are small.
The Economist "Letters" 15 May 99: "Fuelling the Argument" (6):-contains response from Vlado Bevc of San Ramon, California
to 24 Apr article(op.cit.). He contends that producing hydrogen "takes substantially more energy than one can get back by
burning it. Energy required, if production is to be at significant level can come only from fossil fuels needed for electric-power
generation(clean sources of electric energy[presumably not including nuclear]are insignificant) or from reformating hydrogen
from hydrocarbons. In either case, process results in as much if not more carbon dioxide than would be produced by using
internal-combustion engines in first place." In "Re Fuelling" 29 May "Letters" , Amory Lovins of Rocky Mountain Institute,
Colorado,argues that while turning water into hydrogen takes more energy than turning hydrogen back into water,
Bevccompares hydrogen's energy content with that of fossil fuels as if it would simply be burnt. In fact, fuel cells "can turn
hydrogen into car motion about four times as efficiently as normal car engine, or into electricity twice as efficiently as a
classical power station and grid...yield[ing]major savings in fuel, climate risk...money[and]conventional pollution" (6).
The Economist 29 May 99 "Energy: the New Convergence" (59-60):-describes how oil companies are moving into natural gas
and electricity distribution/sales. Move reflects high expected demand growth for gas(2+%/year or double that for oil) driven
mainly by rising use for power generation(75% of new US capacity, and 40% of all European generation by 2010)in turn
reflecting its low carbon emissions(Kyoto Accord).Deregulation of gas and/or power sectors in 70 countries,
allows/encourages formation of "global energy firms" (Texaco)and "total energy management (Shell). Overall effect: change
very nature of vitally importantenergy business. [Combined with new developments in low-emission vehicle engines(see
Economist 24 Apr, 15 May and Lugar, all op.cit.), it might help reduce "oil interests" opposition to higher North American
gasoline prices, aimed at reducing carbon pollution.]
The Economist 19 Jun 99"Genetically Modified Food: Who's Afraid?"(15-6) and"Food for Thought"(19-21):-"GM" has become
such a farm/consumer/trade issue(see 1 May), not only in Europe but also for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile,
Mexico and US, that it merits both an editorial and essay. "The consumer backlash threatens to undermine both this new
technology and the credibility of the agencies that regulate it" (15). The view among many Europeans is that GM products are
"unnatural" , dangerous, and bad for the environment. In fact, all crops have been "unnatural" for millennia, "it is difficult
to conceive of any way in which human health might be damaged" (19) by GM food and, though tests are underway, GM seems
to have net environmental advantages. Since much of the US grain crop is now GM, sorting it for the European market would
be difficult and expensive. Better trans-Atlantic cooperation and public information are in order.
The Economist 03 Jul 99"The Future of Science: Paved with Good Intentions"(71):-blistering critiqueof a UNESCO/ICSU World
Conference on Science in Budapest entitled "Science for the 21st Century: A New Commitment" . The writer found the general
approach out of touch with reality in the deliberate and officialexclusion of clinical medicine and engineering in order to keep
the science "pure" [but more likely to avoid turf-wars with WHO and UNIDO] and the effective avoidance of information
technology and biotechnology - particularly in agriculture [FAO turf?]. More critical was the virtual absence of speakers or
information from the private sector, considering that science-based industrial firms fund about 60% of all research. Finally
speakers "failed to connect with the theme of how science might tackle the pressing problems [stressed:] poverty,
ill-health...environmental degradation and the waste of potential due to discrimination against women".
The Economist 17 Jul 99"Indoor Pollution"(77):-according to growing evidence, and contrary to the priority of outdoor air
pollution controls, levels are usually higher indoors than out, including in heavily-polluted urban areas. Respiratory deaths
among Third World infants are shocking. Even in the rich countries,hazardous gases, particulate matter and chemical
pollutants are spread indoors by baths, showers, dishwashers and washing machines -installed to clean! Reason: most public
water supplies contain very low concentrations of toxic chemicals left over from otherwise beneficial chlorination. Heating,
spraying and splashing of water in use releases the chemicals into the air ( "stripping" ). Gas stoves and candles, meanwhile,
produce carbon monoxide and particulate concentrations as high as those in heavy traffic. New cars, attached garages, laser
printers, computers, carpets and paints are also noxious. Priorities may need adjusting.
The Economist 24 Jul 99 "Stepping on the Gas" (Edit: 19-20) "Fuel Cells Meet Big Business/How a Fuel Cell Works"
(59-60):-items stress/explain rapid progress in developing commercially viable fuel cells(previous material: 24 Apr 99). Main
article claims: "dramatic shift in thinking of big business" ;$1.5 billion will have been spent on fuel cell R&D by next year; and
costs have already fallen so sharply car makers believe mass production will help them close fuel cell/internal-combustion
price gap to meet California's 2004 deadline for 10% no-emissions car sales. Power-generation companies hope to be
well-established by then, with fuel cells soon competitive with alternatives, from coal to gas-fired, possibly reaching $5 billion
a year globallyin power generation equipment in decade. Editorial urges: (1)end hydrocarbon fuel subsidies;(2)deregulate
energy; (3)common platforms for technology/infrastructure(UN?). "Poor countries have the most to gain from this efficient,
flexible and(eventually)cheap technology".
The Economist 21 Aug 99Water Supply:"Pass the Salt"(Desalinization)(23);"Cloudbusting" (Rain-Making)(69-70); "An Ice Idea"
(Storage)(70):-all relate to scientific-technical developments with major implications for expected world-wide fresh water
shortages(see Annan). The first describes a "reverse-osmosis" desalinization plant being built in conjunction with a power
station, "which will provide the cheapest drinking water ever extracted from the sea" : 25m gallons a day at a wholesale cost
of $2.08 per 1000 gallons for 30 years, i.e. competitive with other sources. The second article reports on a new method of
cloud-seeding. Now completing thorough (double-blind), encouraging tests, "hygroscopic-flare" seeding uses salts as
strongly water-affinitive nuclei to form raindrops. The last foresees artificial ice mountains, created cheaply by modified "snow
machines" at below-freezing, water-abundant times/places, and tapped/shipped as/where needed.
The Economist 04 Sep 99"Silent Sting: Banning DDT"(25):-Editorial addresses the terrible dilemma ofwhether to ban DDT
globally because of its proven dangerous effects on humans and wildlife (cancer, endocrine disruption, other ills), or to allow
its continued use against malaria in many poor countries. UN Environment Program is coordinating negotiations for a new
international treaty to curb the use of 12 of the worst pollutants, including DDT and dioxins used as pesticides but which are
also persistent organic pollutants. Health officials, however, argue a worldwide DDT ban "would condemn millions to misery
or death from a preventable illness" since "the only effective defence many have against [malaria] is to spray DDT inside their
homes". Economist proposes delaying a total ban until malaria is beaten; meanwhile banning DDT use outside the home
(notably in farming); funding new malaria vaccines, therapeutic drugs, and alternative pesticides.
The Economist 11 Sep 99"Nuclear Power: Running on Empty"(87):-two major issues still facing nuclear power are its economic
competitiveness with other power sources, and storage of its radioactive wastes. A new method of generating energy from
nuclear waste may ease both problems. A Maryland U. scientist has developed a nuclear-powered turbo-reciprocating engine
(NPTRE) which runs on the "spent" fuel rodsfrom conventional reactors. Now, after 1-2 years generating electricity, fuel rods
are put in storage, having used up enough of their uranium-235 that they can no longer sustain a heat-producing chain
reaction, by being hit by neutrons. They are then replaced by new rods. But (spent) fuel rods contain uranium-238 too, which
also produces heat (although not a chain reaction)when hit by neutrons. So spent rods are moved near new rods-and their
neutron bursts- in a reactor. The U-238 then doubles heat production -and lasts 10-14 years.
The Economist 11 Sep 99"Biodegradeable Materials: Fantastic Plastic" (87-8):-one of hardest pollution challenges to meet has
been the great versatility, toughness, safety, and resilience of plastic, and the (resulting) fact that it is so durable some could
last for thousands of years. Scientists at Cargill Dow Polymers now believe they have developed a truly biodegradeable plastic.
Moreover, since it is derived from maize(corn) or beets instead of petrochemicals, the raw materials are renewable and could
be grown in virtually any country. The plastic can be broken down in a composting centre anywhere, leaving nothing more
than water and carbon dioxide. Produced through a new, highly efficient method based on polylactides(PLA) polymers, the
plastic "can be used to make anything from clothing fibres to clear films and food containers". Company also claims
production is very energy-saving and already financially competitive.
The Economist 09 Oct 99"Why Greens Should Love Trade"(17-8);" Embracing Greenery: WTO and the
Environment"(89-90);Sam Howe Verhovek"For Seattle, Triumph and Protest"New York Times 13 Oct 99:-peace-making
Editorial, historical/optimistic article, and longer NYT report on politics/confrontations, together provide a good picture of the
environmental issues that influence the WTO's agenda-setting meeting. The Editorial argues that, by creating wealthier
societies that care more about the environment, trade can be the best way to improve it. In the meantime, laxer standards in
poor countries are a fair competitive advantage, and no importer may discriminate against those with productionmethods not
up to its own standards. Anyway, pollution abatement costs competitors very little, andgoods can be specially labelled.
Global/trans-border problems should be tackled/paid for through a strong World Environment Organization(WEO) not the WTO.
article -and the WWF- praise a new WTO report on environmental concerns, which (unlike GATT) concedes trade can harm
the environment, and implies this could be put on the trade agenda in Seattle. The most promising areas for global action are
the elimination of environmentally damaging subsidies for farming, fishing and fossil fuels, the labelling of (clearly)
eco-friendly products, and making WTO more transparent, accountable and accessible to eco-groups. A WEO is clearly
preferred to trade sanctions for Kyoto-like treaties. NYT reports on plans by 300 groups for mass demonstrations at Seattle,
many by eco-groups, and most claiming the WTO is business-dominated and undermining national laws.
The Economist 09 Oct 99"Fertility Rights: Terminator Genes"(104):-biotechnology in general, and agri-biotech firms in
particular, have recently become ethical, commercial and scientific subjects of debate [Horaises inter alia the subject of this
item; but see also Conway, Economist 13 Jun 98, 1 May/19 Jun 99, Maddox, Morton(all op.cit.)]. Control of plant reproduction
has research value, by enabling only selected plants to be re-fertilized, but article reports that Monsanto, in face of worldwide
criticism, "promised not to commercialise (sic)the genetic engineering of seed sterility" . This is significant, as many suspect
its motive in developing sterile seeds was to force farmers -including poor Third World peasants- to buy (very costly) new seed
annually. With Monsanto's action, and the creation by multilateral institutes and multinationals of a related research
consortium, poor farmers -desperate to raise productivity to fight malnutrition- seem safer.
The Economist 30 Oct 99"Emissions: Seeing Green" (73):- reports how various businesses now reacting more positively to
planned Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas emission taxes. BP Amoco and Royal Dutch/Shell now admit "global warming is real
and merits immediate action" . Utilities are trying to reduce power plant pollution; Dupont is voluntarily cutting emissions of
greenhouse gases to 35% of their 1990 level in a decade. Examples of current use of transferable emission credits are given.
Obtaining these will be of major value to heavy-industrial and energy firms for cutting their pollution taxes; BP Amoco is
trading credits among its international divisions. Those able easily to reduce CO2/methane emissions and so generate credits
include agribusinesses and forestry firms, while reinsurance companies can securitise emission-trading permits. "Carbon
trading" could be BIG business; some predict a trillion-dollar global industry.
The Economist 04 Dec 99 "Honda: Stack of Trouble" (64-5):-report on recent events in global race to produce first economic
fuel-cell powered vehicle and how related costs are forcing industry consolidation. Described are developments at Honda,
whose forte has always been car propulsion. It has designed engine, its "version of a fuel-cell stack, soul of machine that
within 20 years may replace internal-combustion engine with hydrogen-powered electric motors" .But this model seems below
standards reached by leading combination of Ballard Power Systems-DaimlerChrysler-Ford, or even by their rivals, General
Motors-Toyota(Economist 24 Apr, 24 Jul 99, Koppel op.cit.). Honda has also installed(sealed)Ballard fuel cell in prototype
electric car, made very-low-emission direct-injection and diesel engines, and launched first hybrid petrol-electric car, but may
have to merge owing to high cost.
The Economist 11 Dec 99 "Space-Age Soot" (73-4):-related to preceding, reports a probable solution to the challenge of safe,
efficient and compact storage of hydrogen in fuel-cell vehicles. Since it is a flammable gas at room temperature, options have
included compressing or liquefying, or storing it chemically as methanol or cleaner gasoline. Most effective storage medium,
however, appears to be in carbon structures. Unusual types of molecular carbon form structures known as nanotubes or
nanofibres, which absorb hydrogen wellat room temperature. Soot-like grains having "sponged-up" hydrogen could be put
into hydrogen cartridgeswould be sold and replaced at filling stations. Researcher reports synthesizing nanofibres capable
ofstoring 65% of own weight of hydrogen(6.5% or range of 500km would make idea practical). Other scientists are sceptical,
but several claims of over 10% have been made.
The Economist 11 Dec 99 "The Non-Governmental Order: Citizens' Groups" (20-1):-how and why "citizens' groups" (NGOs)
are increasingly powerful at corporate, national, international level, and whether representmove towards "international civil
society" or "dangerous shift of power to unelected and unaccountablespecial-interest groups" . Their growth was enabled by:
communism's fall; democracy's spread; technological change; economic integration. Reflects concern over: environment;
labour-human-consumer rights; poverty; jobs; etc. Rapid, mass news dispensing or joint action are promoted by:
democratisation; technology.Number: international NGOs: 26,000; national NGOs: US - 2m; India - 1m; East Europe - 0.1m.
Membershipin one NGO can exceed .5m. Roles: deliver services(NGOs dispense more aid than UN system); others
stressadvocacy. "Technical groups" specialize providing expert analysis/ information and assist planners, decision-makers,
negotiators, advocates at all levels. Governments can be helped, manipulated or blocked; some international
organizations/corporations can co-opt such NGOs(World Bank); others may fail(controversial IOs and MNCs).
The Economist 18 Dec 99 "South Seas Piracy: Dead Men Tell No Tales" (87-9):-survey of state/techniques of world maritime
piracy, concentrated mainly in South-East Asia. Article reports that pirate attacks, usually against large ships, have doubled
during 1990s, to 200 a year. Last year, 67 crew members were killed, 66 in Asian waters where nearly three-quarters of all
world's attacks take place. In their more mundane form, ad hoc gangs in speedboats board ships for minor theft(mooring
ropes; petty cash). Since gangs are willing to kill with guns or machetes, most crews carry no weapons and are under strict
instructions to follow pirates' orders. New sophisticated threat is hijacking of ships and cargos by international crime
syndicates, with hints of official collusion. Ship names and papers are changed easily, as is cargo "ownership" . UN
International Maritime Organization and shipping companies are working onlegal/technical counter-measures. For updates
see Economist 21 Jul 01 and 12 Jun 04(op.cit.).
The Economist 22 Jan 00"Greenhouse Gases: Cost Free"; "The Rise of the[Carbon]Sink"(64-5) :-both articles report on
economic developments relating to the general emissions trading provisions in Kyoto Protocol to UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (Grubb op.cit.). While detailedimplementation and final agreement should be completed in November 2000,
the World Bank has already launched a Prototype Carbon Fund to help set a cost for carbon emissions and so to encourage
firms to invest in cutting them. A small greenhouse gas emissions market has already developed, and the PCF should spur
it by investing in green technologies such as renewable energy in poor countries. Resulting reductions in emissions will be
credited to the Fund's investors. The higher the price of carbon, the more interest in investing. The other article reports that
many investors in agriculture and forestry hope for a high carbon price since trees and plants consuming CO2 is the only
known practical way to draw large volumes of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. [Tropical] forests and farms are thus
carbon "sinks" , which could be cultivated to generate valuable - and tradable - emission credits.
The Economist 22 Jan 00"Nuclear Waste: A Torch Song" (81):-probably the biggest political, environmental and cost problem
with nuclear fission power (and disposal of nuclear weapons) has been how to handle the radioactive nuclear waste,
particularly thousands of tonnes of spent fuel and other radioactive by-products. Luckily, thus-far-unsuccessful attempts to
generate energy-economical non-radioactive fusion power has left a number of moth-balled experimental reactors, all designed
to produce gas heated to about 10m degrees C, known as plasma. Dr. Bernard Eastlund proposes that plasma be again
produced in old reactors and mixed with nuclear waste. This would instantly produce a "soup" of electrons and nuclei.
Theelements/ compounds in the soup could then be "sorted" using the different temperatures at which they become solids.
Such residue is not radioactive and less in quantity/cost than that from planned chemical reprocessing.
The Economist 29 Jan 00 "Hybrid Vigour?" (94-5) :-this article reports on the latest development in the battle to produce
economic and environmentally-friendly vehicles. The Detroit motor show saw the introduction by General Motors of the
"Precept" , and by Ford of the" Prodigy" , their new fuel-efficient supercars. The first products of a six-year
$240m-annual-budget US Government program called Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, they achieve the
equivalent of 80mpg(35km/litre) of gas. Their fuel-efficiency is the result of new light technology and a "hybrid power pack"
consisting of a combination of electric and diesel motors to deliver energy more efficiently and recycle as much of it as
possible. Unfortunately, and in spite of the huge investment of tax money, they cost thousands extra, but save little money
in use. Above all, the writer expects them to be" obsolete within a decade" . "The future almost certainly belongs to the
fuel-cell" .
The Economist 26 Feb 00 "Russia's Nuclear Industry: The Time-Bombs of Tomsk" (29-34):-factual information about Russian
nuclear industry explains both US concern and largesse. Above all, convincing case that decrepit state of industry "threatens
whole world" . "Plutonium-producing reactors[at Tomsk]present most immediate problem. All...plants...at least 40 years old.
Two[working]reactors aregraphite-moderated and water-cooled, precursors(sic)of design used at Chernobyl. Enormous stacks
of[swelling/cracking]graphite blocks surround vertical rods containing fuel.[N]o containment vessels, no emergency
core-cooling systems.[I]f rods or tubes in core begin to buckle, engineers cannot control speed of reaction by withdrawing
fuel rods...Closing reactors would help on three fronts. It would reduce Russia's output of plutonium; it would remove danger
of serious accident; and it would reduce amount of Russian nuclear waste" .
The Economist 11 Mar 00 "Floods and Their Damage: After the Deluge" (52):-describes global flood disaster threat, and warns
of worse to come. Approximately 100,000 people 1999 were killed in natural disasters, highest toll since 1991. Normally half
are victims of floods. Moreover in 1998 300m people were affectedby floods, and annually about 3m lose their homes. In future,
as population increases, more people live in vulnerable areas, so global flood damage is expected to increase. Already 50%
world lives on/near coast -10m(mostly very poor)at constant sea risk. Millions in hillside slums subject to mud-slides; others
inovercrowded flood-prone river valleys. Settlement itself increases flood danger through erosion, deforestation, water
diversion, damming. Global warming will make half LDCs' population vulnerable to floods/storms. Better safety-measures/aid
must be long-lasting.
The Economist 25 Mar 00 "Water: A Soluble Problem" (20); "Nor Any Drop to Drink" (69-70):-both editorial and major essay
argue that growing global shortage of fresh water reflects massive and unnecessary waste-which can be eliminated if it is
simply priced realistically. Some facts(see also Annan): more thanbillion people have no access to safe water and 3b lack
adequate sanitation. This threatens all withdisease and drought. Meanwhile, water tables overused, with many falling by meter
or more/year. "[W]orlddemand for fresh water will grow sharply, by 70%(for household use)by 2025. Shortages seem
inevitable-and even war" (20). Yet much is wasted: most domestic water use not metered, while subsidies worth billions
positively encourage waste in farming/industry. Instead, price water(just)above cost of provision and disposal, aiding only
poorest. Private investment($180b a year)will come.
The Economist 01 Apr 00"How Green Is Your Hydrogen?" (74):-draws on report by(Canadian)Pembina Institute. It addresses
fact that fuel-cell vehicles need hydrogen, so some sort of energy must be used to produce this basic fuel. Not only do most
economic forms of energy generation produce carbon dioxide, but in medium term hydrogen will be stripped from hydrocarbon
molecules as found in fossil fuels. This can be done in vehicle by using chemical "reformer" -which releases surplus carbon
as carbon dioxide. So report calculated total "well-to-wheel" release of greenhouse gases using various fuels (including
"clean" gasoline/ methanol). Best was found to be natural gas: it is easy and efficient to reform into hydrogen -and cheap.
Volume problems are solved if gas stations have big reformers and sell hydrogen as solid(metal hydride).This uses same
space per energy unit as gasoline.
The Economist 08 Apr 00 "Who Owns the Knowledge Economy?" (17); "Patent Wars: Knowledge Monopolies"
(75-8):-Editorial/essay address issue already raising serious legal, ethical, R&D, competition, trade and North-South debates
- worth billions of dollars. It is accelerating numbers of patents granted in novel/controversial areas, made both
possible/immensely valuable by rapid advances in knowledge power they guard(computer software, genetic engineering,
Internet business methods). Patents global(in theory),wherever first granted, and recognized international patent system is
under creation by World Intellectual Property Organization, WTO - and sheer demand. Patents are both defenses in very
competitive world, and fertile/flexible income generators. Yet, while aiming to foster invention by rewarding it, they do not
"differentiate between incentives needed to invest in different kinds of technologies. [Henceforth they should respond
to]investment that an invention represents[and] come in different shapes and sizes, or system will go on producing
absurdities" (17).
The Economist 06 May 00 "Satellite Pictures: Private Eyes in the Sky" (71-3):-plans of companies hoping to sell
satellite-produced images with spacial resolution of less than metre(smallest features that can be distinguished) and
speculates on their global impact(see also NYT story by W. J. Broad).Such resolution,previously limited to US and Soviet
intelligence use, can distinguish cars from trucks, recognize types of aircraft and tanks, and identify buildings for target
selection. Firms launching commercial satellites in coming months foresee billion-dollar markets for detail comparable to aerial
photography combined withglobal coverage and high-speed delivery. Probable consumers include most government agencies,
mineral/oil prospectors, utilities, urban/transport planners, real estate/insurance companies, farmers, fishermen, NGOs. While
governments hope to restrict image sales/ coverage, it will prove impossible - and force for verification, stability and hence
peace.
The Economist 17 Jun 00 "Patent Law: Going Global" (83):-08 Apr item "Patent Wars..." outlined rapidly-increasing number,
complexity and cost of patent-related problems in a high-tech, interdependent world, with instant global communications. This
item reports on "significant step towards simple, global system for patent filing" in form of new world patent-law treaty signed
at WIPO(UN World Intellectual Property Organization). Inter alia it stipulates "standardized forms that all patent offices must
accept, basic standards for electronic submission of patents, and mechanisms to avoid loss of rights due to non-essential
formalities or unintentional delays" . Most important, signatories accept nationally any patent filed according to international
standard known as PCT(Patent Co-Operation Treaty)and "may pave way for filing single patent according to global standard"
. Issues of substance, such as what constitutes "novelty" , will be discussed later this year, but tougher debates such as that
between "first to invent" and "first to file" may be left longer. Not surprisingly, China, India and some other LDCs are doubtful.
[In light of current North-South problems over high costs of patented drugs and seeds, global formula may be needed so LDCs
can get/make critical patented goods cheaply, but not "dump" them elsewhere.]
The Economist 01 Jul 00 "Selling Fuel Cells" (83):-item says General Motors seems to have gainedadvantage in high-stakes
race with Ballard-Daimler-Ford to develop economic fuel cell car(Koppel op.cit.). New GM prototype (HydroGen1)is 1/3 size
of its predecessor, but produces about 60% more power(thermal efficiency is nearly four times that of best gas-powered
vehicles). Engine warms up at -40C in 1/10 time of other fuel cells, and its fuel tank (hydrogen for 600km)is size of ordinary
gas tank. Possibly on market by 2004, improvements do not reflect breakthrough but many engineering refinements. "Itlooks
increasingly likely that eventual replacement for internal-combustion engine in motor vehicles will be fuel cell.[C]ar makers
now investing heavily in[them]" .
The Economist 05 Aug 00 "The Electric Revolution" (Edit: 19-20); "The Dawn of Micropower" (75-7):-arguescoming changes
in electricity generation will be as dramatic and profound as those found in world telecommunications industry. Many LDCs
may even skip giant-power-station stage and move directly to "micropower" -electricity produced by small-scale fuel cells/gas
turbines. Essay discussestrends/techniques which(it contends)will produce world geared to local power generation for local
consumption. Three trends stimulate development of small, clean, reliable, cheap generating technology.(1)Global
liberalization-deregulation makes local power generation competitive, with potentiallocal markets even for surplus
heat.(2)Rising emission standards make new coal-fired plants prohibitive; increase relative advantage of low/no-emission
microgenerators.(3)Reliable/uninterrupted power is higherpriority; multiple micro-generators are under owners' control.
Venture-capital investment also respondedto potential micropower market($60b/year). Several sorts of micropower generation
under development: (1) "Most dramatic breakthroughs taking place in field of fuel cells" .(Sources give details: e.g.
hydrogen-handling.) (2)Microturbines, high-speed compressors-cum-rotors that spin to 100,000 rpms, have one moving part,
and run on natural gas.(3)Solar Cells costs, still not competitive, coming down - and fuel is free. For global markets, costs of
more-developed microgenerators are already competitive in rich worldand, for some purposes/places, in Third World.
"Microgrids" , pooling relative strengths of severalmicropower systems, will bring prices even lower and reliability even higher.
Three obstacles to remove: distorted taxation; need for global standards; regulation.
The Economist 19 Aug 00 "The Caucasus: Where Worlds Collide" (17-9):-tackles perhaps most ethnically explosive/ politically
unruly/economically depressed region in world. It offers non-experts concise picture of "states" in area, whether
recognized(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia),self-proclaimed(Abkazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South
Ossetia),aspiring(Ajaria?, Dagestan?, Ingushetia?, Javakheti?, Nakhichevan?, North Ossetia?)or neighbouring(Iran,
Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey)in terms of their recent clashes/multiple secession/inter-ethnic problems; appalling
political/economic conditions, and interests/roles of almost all in others' affairs. Wonderful chart on this. Among major points
made: there might be 100b barrels of oil and gas around Caspian; 3000km of international borders in Caucasus of which
9km(sic)truly friendly; "same cocktail of bad government, spite-thy-neighbour and poverty poisons life in[whole]of Caucasus"
; "political and military stalemate disguises economic/social catastrophe" ; since independence2m(50%of
population)emigrated from Armenia, 1m(20%)from Georgia, 1.5m(20%)from Azerbaijan; for one of many "solutions"
:www.ceps.be.
The Economist 18 Nov 00"Dams: A Barrage of Criticism" (94-6):-reports on the first comprehensive effort to analyse
environmental, economic and social impacts of world's 45,000 large dams - the work of The World Commission on Dams
involving the World Bank, industry, etc. on 1000 dams over two years. Itconcludes that their overall costs to both man and
nature are "mostly negative" ,although every third country uses hydro power for 50+% of electricity and over one-third of
irrigated land depends on dams. Their building usually means clearing forests etc.; reservoirs become silted from upstream;
rotting vegetation emits CO2/methane - possibly accounting for 25+% of "global-warming potential" of atmospheric gases.
Some alter flood cycles and downstream flows; some pollute rivers, remove nutrients, alter watertemperature - affecting
survival of plants, fish and animals, but breeding mosquitos -hence malaria etc. Over $2 trillion has been invested and 80m
displaced, though dams often unprofitable, slow to deliver, prone to corruption, distorted in their benefit.
The Economist 09 Dec 00"India's Economy Opens Its Doors: The China Syndrome" (50):-excellent summary of the problems,
policies and prospects of the largest really poor economy in the world. AtWTO behest, in Mar India removes its last quantitative
import restrictions(mostly consumer/agriculturalgoods)while GDP growth this FY will be almost 6%; reserves almost cover
a year's imports; current-account deficit likely below 2% GDP; exports are booming. Yet most feel this is not good enough:
China gets 10+ times India's foreign investment and exports 5+ times the merchandise. Indian firms carry six burdens:very
high power costs; high interest rates; combined red tape/corruption; high sales and local taxes; slow/expensive transport;
and inflexible labour markets. In response, PM has set 8% growth target and recently liberalised India's telecom market," which
should speed its emergence as an [IT] power" . But bothmulti-beneficial privatization and road infrastructure building need
acceleration. Worse, politics isimpeding essential labour/fiscal/tariff reforms.
The Economist 23 Dec 00 "Shrinking Families: The Empty Nursery" (95-7):-essay on below-replacement fertility rates
implies:(1)population decline anywhere would be "worrying" ,presumably since current huge/unprecedented human numbers
are "just right" or even too low, but no explanation why; (2)rich countries' population trends/totals can/should be totally
divorced from both their unsustainable consumption levels and any concerns about global population growth/consumption
levels;(3)large-scale/balancing migration is useless. Extracts:" [Is an]only child pattern of the future? Of all questionsabout
our new century, few are as important as this...Too few babies is emerging as bigger worry in many countries...than too
many[globally? i.e. how we support global population still growing at 80m/year]...Of 35of world's richest countries, in only
three[Iceland, New Zealand, US]are women producing enough babies...to replace existing population.[Trends in US, Europe,
China, South Korea.]Motherhood is becoming a mid-life digression[and]postponing childbearing[mainly for educational/career
reasons]leads to many more single child families.[L]ong-run trend will surely be for people to have rather fewer children, on
average, than replacement of human race requires. As result, 21st century will probably see...humannumbers stop rising and
begin to decline...[W]hile environment may gain, society may well lose[not enough pension contributors; kinship a weaker
force; old people with no immediate relatives; majority are first-born/only offspring" .In addition, thoughtful theme Editorial
on "Tales of Youth and Age" (17-8)relates to notingimplications of aged forming increasing percentage of world's population
over course of century. There is also highly relevant/amusing essay in same issue: "Prolonging Life: Who Wants To Live
Forever?" (23-4). Partly historical/philosophical, it also offers information and food for thought. Neanderthals lived about20
years; mid-18th century average lifespans were only up to 30. Today's world average life expectancy is 65 years, with those
in rich countries 75-80, result of improvements in living conditions, public healthand medical care. Individual lifespans are not
huge by historical standards: 122 years is longest documented. Two life-lengthening methods have been successful with
animals: semi-starvation (unpopular with humans)and selective breeding(would require centuries/heartache for humans).
Genetic manipulation, however, now seems feasible, although ageing process involves many genes. Life would remain an
invariably fatal disease, but age researchers claim that if people were able to preserve their maximum health and vigour, they
would on average live for about 1,200 years, with about 0.1% lasting for 10,000. Short of instant over-population, world would
soon consist of extremely old, and tiny, "dwindling, resentful" group of younger people. [Economist's opposition to lower
birth-rates in rich countries was explained later as producing short-/mid-term economic stress in advanced states. Its older
populations cannot be supported by relatively smaller numbers of young personnel and not yet handled by obvious
longer-term solutions. These include:(a)economic participation/ generation of workers for progressively more years;(b)entire
assets needed for pension-funds totally pre-generated/ saved before retirement;(c)less-labor-dependent economies modified
by gains in human-progressiveness.]
The Economist 27 Jan 01"A New Environmental Index: Sustainable Growth - Green and Growing" (74-5):-serious global
controversies(e.g. Kyoto Protocol)reflect widespread (mis)perception that environmental and economic improvements are
incompatible, and present zero-sum alternatives. While in many cases these aims are in fact mutually reinforcing (non-polluting
processes often improve efficiency)there has beenno organized attempt to clarify/ quantify overall relationship perhaps
because many key terms involved are "woolly" [e.g. "sustainable", "environmental" ," growth" vs" development" ];most
environmental data are "poor quality". 2001 Davos World Economic Forum was presented first attempt to meet this need:
Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)created by expert team working carefully with available data. It had first made "detailed
assessment of dozens of variables that influence environmental health" of 122 national economies(from pollutants to
corruption). These then used to select 22 "core indicators" grouped in five broad areas: (1)Environmental Systems: air quality;
water quantity & quality; biodiversity [threats]; terrestrial systems [e.g.soil degradation]; (2)Reducing Stresses: reducing air
pollution; reducing water & ecosystem stresses; reducing waste and consumption & population pressures; (3)Reducing
Human Vulnerability: basic human sustenance; environmental[ly-related] health; (4)Social and Institutional Capacity: science
and technology [strength]; capacity for debate; [eco-]regulation and management; private sector [eco-]responsiveness;
environmental information; eco-[i.e.energy] efficiency; reducing public choice distortions [gasoline prices, usage subsidies,
corruption]; (5)Global Stewardship: international commitment [eco-participation & compliance]; protecting international
commons[ e.g. CO2, SO2, CFC]; global-scale [eco-]funding & participation. Indicators were quantified for each individual
country, making it feasible to rank them in terms of "sustainability" (ES). Among results: Finland(1); Norway(2); Canada(3);
Australia(7); US(11); France(13); Germany(15); Britain(16); Japan(22); Brazil(28); Russia(33); Italy(37); South Africa(45);
Mexico(73); India(93); China(108); Nigeria(117); Haiti(122). Team's key findings were: (a)ES can be measured; "Index proved
to be surprisingly powerful, useful and robust" .(b)ESI created comparative benchmarks of national environmental conditions
and possibility of making decisions on more fact-based foundations. (c)Economic conditions affect, but do not determine,
environmental conditions; ESI suggests that decisions on how vigorously to pursue ES and economic growth are in fact two
separate choices. (d)Serious data gaps limit ability to measure ES. Much of above derived directly from ESI Main Report
downloaded (using Adobe Acrobat Reader since it is in PDF format) at: http://www.ciesin. colombia. edu/indicators/ESI.
The Economist 10 Mar 01 "Wind Power: Maybe This Time" (30-1):-optimistic on state of/prospects for wind power (mainly
based on US situation). Tax credits for this clean, renewable energy source in 1980-90sproduced little as fossil-fuel efficiency
rose/prices dropped. But now California needs more energy fast,natural-gas price soaring, and wind-power technology better.
Hence major firms are committed tobuying/generating significant wind power since(even without subsidy)becoming
competitive with gas turbines. Big 1.65MW wind turbine now costs about $1.3m(120 times as much power as 1980s
predecessor for 20 times cost), takes only months to build(5 years for gas turbines)and 98% reliable. With forests of small,
noisy eyesores being replaced by few big, slow turbines spread widely, biggest challenge left is costly and complex problem
of energy storage, since wind speed and power demand are unrelated in time and place. For some locations, wind power "no
longer looks so silly" .
The Economist 07 Apr 01 "Rage Over Global Warming" (Edit.18); "Global Warming: Is the Kyoto Treaty Dead?" (73-5) :-both
make rather unorthodox, point: while politicians, media, environmentalists globally expressed shock and horror when
President Bush brusquely announced reversal of US support for Kyoto Protocol, Economist essentially agrees with decision
but for different reasons. Bush's one brief rationale: Kyoto's implementation would hurt US economy - tactical error as widely
agreed. In fact four criticisms of Kyoto put forward by Administration: (1)uncertainties about science supporting need to take
action to prevent/reduce climate change;(2)lack of participation by poor countries;(3)huge economic burdenimposed on US
during" energy crisis" ;(4)impossibility of getting ratification by Senate. Essay rebutseach:(1)now effectively consensus among
experts that climate change is real, dangerous, and being produced by human action;(2)rich world created problem so should
act first to correct it(LDCs are to take on emission targets later);(3)claim US "energy crisis" prevents it from taking action" ;
(only bogus crisis is in California, result of botched power deregulation; real cost meeting Kyoto targets unknown but
adjustable);(4)Senate votes depend on public opinion/text presented. Essay then argues if Bush/EU really want to tackle
climate change, they should admit that current Kyoto targets now impossible for US(and probably some European
states/Japan)to meet on scale/date set. Also unnecessarily inflexible:front-loading deep cuts in emissions makes them much
more costly. But economists propose "safety valves" (David Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol(Princeton Univ. Press)).
Text sets ambitious one-off targets butputs no limit on compliance costs. Yet issue is cumulative:growing stock of greenhouse
gases,unrelated to any specific date. Progressive targets ( "bold but measured steps" (Grubb))would reduceeconomic costs
substantially. Transferrable emission credits also spread/reduce costs. EU or US could initiate a flexible approach. Economist
28 Apr "Heated Debate" (6)on Letters page contains two important responses to Edit. Michael Grubb(op.cit.), one of world's
leading experts on how international community can deal with global warming, stresses(contrary to interpretation)initially mild
reductions and deliberate flexibilitywere built into Kyoto Protocol precisely to meet US concerns. Letter from Christopher Bare
of Los Angeles argues that improved agreement highly unlikely to be obtained from Bush and adds growing suspicion that
in reality Editor shares Bush's "anti-environment sentiment" .
The Economist 19 May 01 "Electricity From Waves: Power Buoys" (78-9):-among renewable energy sources, wave power has
fallen behind solar and wind power on basis of apparently uneconomic cost. Now buoy that turns wave energy into electricity
has been developed for US Navy that appears economic. It "collects energy using piston that rides up and down with motion
of waves. This turns generator, andelectricity produced is stored in battery" .Naval interest was in source of power for
recharging small unmanned underwater reconnaissance vehicles, but designers saw commercial potential in larger, more
powerful buoys. They developed 20kw version, soon to be group-tested off Australian coast andconnected to local power grid.
Large groups of 100kw buoys may form 10-100MW power stations within 2-3 years. Being simple and sturdy, buoys may prove
profitable: 3 cents/kW-hour. While power plants costly, fuel is free/available 90% of time, and running cost minimal.
The Economist 19 May 01 "A New Dawn for Nuclear Power?" (Edit.13); "A Renaissance That May Not Come: Special Report
- Nuclear Power" (24-6):-responses mainly to Pres. Bush's inclusion of nuclear among power sources he will push to help
increase US domestic energy production. As usual, Economist does not share many environmentalists' visceral, and even
moral, fear of radiation; it makes careful, qualified, but on balance negative, case regarding nuclear power's viability, based
on free market economic considerations. It argues: "concerns about operational safety...do not add up to damning
case...Nuclearindustry has learned a lot about running its plants safely...Existing technology is now mature and
well-understood. On the whole, [Western]nuclear power plants...are today safe and well-run" (13).But new plants are defended
on grounds that they:(1)enhance energy security by reducing dependence on[Mideast]fossil fuels;(2)reduce output of
greenhouse gases;(3)exploit improved nuclear power economics. Reaction:(1)nuclear power displaces mostly coal and gas
- more plentiful/diversified than oil;(2)nuclear power is expensive way to cut greenhouse gases and creates other
problems(waste disposal; theft dangers);carbon tax plus elimination of energy subsidies would be best route;(3)claims of
greatly improved nuclear economics are dubious(this examined carefully)and "hefty" subsidies still exist. If private sectorcan
build competitive new plants without subsidies, "more power to it" .Believe this is unlikely. Economist09 Jun "Fact or Fission"
(Letters16):-constructive comments on 19 May Essay. P.H.Spare, Davenham,Cheshire sees nuclear power as necessary and
cheap insurance, either to ensure vital energy supplies in event of Middle East disruption or progressively help replace oil/gas
as they become exhausted. Jan Bloemraad, Toronto warns that if resource-deprived countries were to abandon nuclear energy,
both oil and gas demand for power generation would rapidly increase and US would suffer just the same. John Stevenson,
Cleveland decries negative bias, e.g. in chart, which shows massive growth in wind- and solar-power use(vastly more than
in nuclear power)but fails to mention that (heavily subsidized)formeraccount for less than 1% of world electricity consumption,
while nuclear power accounts for over 20%.David Alexander, Zeist, Netherlands contends nuclear power industry is not "good,
proper and socially responsible" business unless:(1)it is run profitably, efficiently and ethically;(2)it delivers products or
services that meet real needs without damaging human health, well-being or environment; and(3)it receives no government
largesse in any form, however covert.[Does/could any business or industry meet all criteria?] For concurrent analysis of
economics of nuclear power in US, see Matthew L. Wald "Handicapping Reactors by the Numbers" New York Times 19 Jun
01. Article reports that, whatever Bush administration may hope for future of nuclear energy, industry experts argue that
recovery from its 30-year drought in US will depend upon three key numbers:(1)In order for reactors to compete, price of
natural gas would have to stick at $4 or 5 per million BTUs(it is currently about $4, but has exceeded $5).However if price
stayed at $5 for long, more could come into production both in North America and abroad, and price would drop.(2)USNuclear
Energy Institute believes competitive reactors would have to sell for no more than $1,000/kilowatt of generating capacity. That
is much more than natural gas plants($5-600/kilowatt) but running costs of reactors is low because uranium is cheap. Major
efforts also being made to reduce reactor costs, including through economies of scale, higher efficiency, and reduced
construction cost.(3)Locus for storing 77,000 tons of radioactive waste must be settled. Yucca Mountain(90m from Las
Vegas)not yet agreed upon as suitable long-term repository. All arithmetic is soluble but finding successful solutions is far
from guaranteed.
The Economist 21 Jul 01 "Piracy in Asia: Dangerous Waters" (35-6):-report on escalating problem of piracy at sea builds on
18 Dec 99 and leads to 12 Jun 04 articles(op.cit.),and includes map of Southeast Asia with locations of pirate attacks in 2000.
ICC International Maritime Bureau(IMB)reported 460+ worldwide - 56% increase on 1999. UN International Maritime
Organization(IMO), moreover, suspects half incidents gounreported. While most involve" petty theft by unemployed fishermen
and opportunistic criminals" , they range up to highly-organized, gang-operated hijacking. Favourite "pirate zones" remain
Indonesia's extensive waters(119 incidents)and narrow Malacca Strait (75)between Sumatra and Malaysia/Singapore, one of
world's busiest" choke-points" transited by 200+ ships daily. IMB blames recent increases in piracyon Indonesian situation,
but "legal loopholes are also to blame" . As most Asian states' laws on piracy are now inadequate, model national piracy law
is being drafted. Jurisdictional limits present other problems: few Asian states have ratified IMO convention providing legal
framework to chase, prosecute and extradite pirates. Still, regional cooperation is expanding. IMO foresees common code of
practice to investigate high-seas crimes while IMB now monitors ship movements and coordinates cross-border chases.
The Economist 24 Apr 04 "Climate Change: Plumbing the Depths" (83):- "Fears that global warming is causing sea levels to
rise are one of the main concerns about climate change. But...little was known about trends in sea level [prior to 19th century].
Now [a university team] may have changed all that...Caesarea, a coastal settlement...south of Haifa, was built...around 15BC
[and] enjoyed a period of nearly 1,300 years of continuous occupation.[Digging has] uncovered more than 60 wells that would
have [been built/]provided fresh water for its inhabitants throughout the period. [The] team found a good correspondence
between the well-water level and the Mediterranean's level...The results indicate that the sea level has remained reasonably
constant over the past 2,000 years...Data from the Caesarean wells show that...therise in sea level detected in the 20th century
is a recent phenomenon.[It] suggests that the oceans are now encroaching on to the land at a pace not seen since the end of
the last ice age...Ancient plumbing warns that all is not well with rising sea levels." This summit of the article leaves out much
detail, and hence can be misguiding. It does however include key points. Last quoted sentence is introductory clause.
The Economist 01 May 04 "The Oil Wars: In the Pipeline" (41-2):-development of oil and gas supplies outside the Middle East
is an action priority. Russian and nearby Caucasian potential are generatingattention from concerned buyers. This article
focuses on China which not only much gain access to more and safer oil and gas, but has sound reasons for controlling its
coal priorities. The focus described isRussia's potential in" Angarsk, at the southern end of Lake Baikal in eastern Siberia"
and not near the Pacific.China has proposed a crude-oil pipeline to its own refining centre Daqing in east China, which
muchprocess less from its mature nearby field. Japan in rival proposes a longer but all-Russia pipeline to Nakhodka which
would be advanced as a major Pacific port. Much Japanese investment in east Siberiaand access to Pacific markets/sources
make Russia likely to agree.[Such a deal may also have more options for Russia than its very advanced Pacific deal via the
Sakhalin oil boom: see "Japan Inc." http:/ /www.findarticles. com.] Meanwhile China, fearing 60% of its oil must be imported
by 2030 - with 50% already nervously from the Middle East - is very soon "expected to sign an agreement on the construction
of a 1,200km cross-border section of the pipeline from Atasu in Kazakhstan to Dushanzi in China's Xinjiang region" . This could
connect to the Caspian Sea region, and deliver 20m tonnes annually within two years. The $3 billion is high, but supply is
reliable, and China is getting natural gas from already-improving Xinjiang this year for $15 billion.
The Economist 08 May 04 "Nuclear Power: Out Of Chernobyl's Shadow" (57-8):-analysis of many changingEU economic,
environmental and financial situations/policies as regards nuclear energy. Some trans-European radiation, blown from the
Chernobyl accident, persuaded several EO countries to freeze their own industries. "Now, a fresh dose of nuclear energy has
entered [EU] from the east [since m]any of the countries that joined...rely heavily on nuclear power. This is forcing the EU to
confront some extremely tricky choices about the future role of nuclear power...Achieving western safety standards at the 18
nuclear plants that have just been added to the EU will be a bonanza for western consultants...In some cases, new western
plants may be built, initially to replace Soviet ones, but perhaps later to replace filthy coal-powergenerators...EU's anti-nuclear
stance may soften. [The] important new Finnish reactor highlights a thirdfactor that could boost nuclear power within the EU:
global warming...EU has made [Kyoto treaty] targets legally binding...But if environmental arguments may increasingly work
in nuclear's favour, the main obstacle is likely to be cost [affected by the variable oil and gas prices]. Finding investors willing
to finance a new nuclear plant is formidably hard...Perhaps the best hope is to come up with cheaper designs for nuclear
plants. Lately, nuclear builders have been making big promises about lowering costs."
The Economist 15 May 04 "War in Sudan:Don't Forget It" (Edit.10) "Special Report on Sudan: Fleeing the Horsemen Who Kill
For Khartoum" (21-3):-reports:(1)cautious agreement about an encouraging but uncertain "comprehensive peace" to end
north-south civil war since 1957;(2)bloody/displacing attacksdirected by government against western Darfur region whose
newly armed people feared being excluded. North-south war started at Sudan's independence by black non-Moslems living
over southern half of largest African state, who sought autonomy from Moslem and Arabic north. War killed 2 million(mostly
civilians)and became even more fierce when new Sudan oil concession areas were hugely located in south. Under mostly US
pressure/promise, both groups finally agreed on series of agreements and "to share power for six years, after which south
will be allowed referendum on whether or not to secede...In west and east of country, regions utterly neglected by state , those
who feel left out -in particular, in[black Moslem]Darfur-have taken up arms. Government has evidently determined to crush
them with such ferocity that otherSudanese are too scared to follow suit" .Its militia is acting so viciously, it is drawing US
anger -and soonUN. Economist 29 May 04 "Sudan: Peace in the South, War in the West" (Edit.14) "Sudan: A Triumph Marred
By Terror" (48): bring developments up: Sudan's "government and southern rebels surmounted last obstacles in way of peace.
[W]ar between north and south...appear[s]to be over. Proposed transitional government will not be pretty...but war is uglier...In
western region of Darfur, government is fighting two black Muslim rebel groups...Some 1.2m [blacks]have been driven from
their homes, and perhaps 30,000 killed.[A]id workers predict that between 150,000 and 350,000 people will die in next nine
months from hunger and disease if Sudan's government does not stop hindering relief efforts" .Economist 03 Jul 04 "Sudan:
Dousing the Frames of Darfur" (Edit.13) "Sudan: The Calamity Continues" (39):continue report: "Actions in Darfur...have
created arguably worst humanitarian crisis in world today. Arab-dominated regime Khartoum is fighting revolt there by
discontented blacks and has been driving black Darfuris fromsmoking remains of homes. Most of driving is done by mounted
militia called janjaweed which governmentarms but pretends not to...USAID predicted...1m might die if help did not come fast"
.UNSG Annan and US Secretary of State Powell visited Sudan to threaten government with UNSC sanctions, but offer
aidwhen/where can. Economist 31 Jul 04 "Sudan Can't Wait: Genocide in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: The World Notices Darfur"
(39-40):both describe international details US and Britain in particular are facing when tryingto end terrible action by janjaweed
actions against people of Darfur, and serious food absence for millions. Third Darfur item, "International Law and Genocide:
Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40),has Summary in sections due to future relevance of legality UN action/inaction. Economist
28 Aug 04 "Sudan: Crunch Time in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: Decision Time in Sudan" (39-40) "Darfur's Rebels: No Angels"
(40):-there have been frequent/appalling Editorials/articles in past months, but trio is worth reading even if you do not want
to scan them all. It contains a large amount of new information on complexities of this situation. Unfortunately much could
be relevant to other African/Arab/illogical states and UN delay in crisis. Economist11 Dec 04 "Southern Sudan: The Refugees
Prepare To Return Home" (45):-as noted in May items, slownorth-south peace negotiations continued/maybe ended, while
western genocide continued, despitesmall/slow intervention in Darfur by African troops. South now seems prepared for
peace/important resettlement takes place/is described.
The Economist 29 May 04 "Haiti: Misery Upon Misery" (35-6):-another tragedy has hit poorest country in Americas. Torrential
rains smashed a border region between Dominican Republic and Haiti," unleashing floods and devastating mudslides" . About
2,000 people were reported killed, half in one Haitian town alone. Meanwhile 8m Haitians already under some control by
multi-national forces, attracted by a political revolt but soon replaced by a formal UN peacekeeping force. Transitional
government of technocrats is alreadyheaded by a former UN official - and that raises increasing global needs for UN to run
nations collapsed "out of control" . Here are Haiti excerpts: " [State has]no army...and a small and ill-armed policeforce...For
most Haitians, life is all about survival. Two-thirds of them lack a proper job. The price of ricehas almost doubled since
January. Mountains of rubbish have piled up in the streets. In Port-au-Prince, there is no water and almost no electricity for
those who cannot afford generators. Good roads exist onlyin the memory of those old enough to remember better days.
Estimates of the cost of the looting anddestruction of property in February[revolt]range[$100-300m]. Public services collapsed.
That was a body blow to an economy already wounded by years of mismanagement, general instability, a UN embargo in the
early 1990s and a suspension of foreign aid after 2000. The only growth business has been thetracking of Colombian
cocaine...A readier source of cash[than aid]is the $1billion that the Haitians livingabroad send back home each year. That
amounts to three times the country's exports or the government'sbudget. Most of this money is spent on foods and clothes.
It helps to pay for survival, not reconstruction. Haitians are growing angry over rising food prices[,but]Haiti's failures are
rooted in its history[and]also in its social and racial divisions" .
The Economist 29 May 04 "Dubai: Arabia's Field of Dreams" (61-2):- "One of the world's most successful business ventures
is a small city state" . Here are excerpts from the extraordinary survey: "Dubai has someoil and gas, but they contribute barely
6% of its economic output and are due to run out in about 10 years. [Yet it]has been wisely using [this] income over the years
to invest in a different sort of future, replacing hydrocarbons with people as it has expanded to be the tourism and business
hub of a regionwhere 1.5 billion people are within two hours' flying time. Thirty years ago there was nothing in Dubai but a
creek, a sheikh's palace and a dodgy reputation as the smuggling capital of the Arabian Gulf. The traditional Arab dhows
remain , and there were recent echoes of its smuggling past when it emerged, amidrumours of terrorist money-laundering,
that much of Pakistan's illegal trade in nuclear materials passed through Dubai. But in other respects, the sheikhdom has been
magnificently transformed, and is now a beacon for legitimate, non-oil business in the Arab world - where shining examples
of capitalism are rare...Emirates Airline has played a crucial part in Dubai's development. From the start, Dubai has run an
open-skyapproach, welcoming any foreign airline that wants to fly in competition...Now 100 airlines link Dubai to 145
destinations [and] Emirates has thrived on competition...As the city-state built huge tax-free shopping mallsand launched
sporting events,...so it became a holiday destination, offering attractions such as desertsafaris and dhow cruises...Dubai is
remarkably open to foreigners. Of its 1.5m people, over 80% areexpatriates...Dubai's easy-going style...has made it such a
positive place to live and work that success feeds on itself.
The Economist 29 May 04 "Saudi Arabia and Oil: What If?" (Special Report: 69-70):-article studiespossibility/need for Saudi
Arabia to reduce/control oil prices: A Letter from Osama bin Laden to US states:" 'You steal our wealth and oil at paltry prices
because of your international influence and military threats. This theft is indeed the biggest theft ever witnessed by
mankind'...The impact of these chilling words is still being felt in today's chaotic energy markets...[D]ecision by OPEC to
increase quotas [t]his time may be different. A soaring world economy has sucked global inventories dry. Nearly every OPEC
producer, save Saudi Arabia, is already producing about as much oil as it can. That means that any new OPEC promise of oil
will have to come chiefly from the Saudis themselves...[W]hat was once unthinkable now seemspossible, perhaps even
inevitable: a major terrorist attack, or series of attacks, on oil facilities within Saudi Arabia.[Since] Saudis keep several million
barrels per day(bpd)of idle capacity on hand for emergencies[,t]his spare capacity allows the Saudis to moderate oil-price
strikes[,and they] remain keen tomoderate prices by using their buffer capacity.[While]not everyone is worried.,.pessimists
reckon that well-coordinated attacks could take as much as 6m-7m bpd of Saudi output off the market for weeks, andperhaps
longer.[W]orld oil market react[ion] to such a blow...is clearly better equipped to handle a supply shock than it was [in]
1970s[:]rich world is much less energy intensive [,and] OECD countries now maintainlarge 'strategic reserves' of petroleum,
and coordinate the release of these during emergencies...Even so, there is good reason to worry.
The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Amorphous But Alive" (42-3):-since 11 Sep 01 "al-Qaeda [attacks] killed more than 1,000
people in more than a dozen countries. [E]xpert on group 'reckons that Mr. bin Laden is closer to achieving his goals than the
West is to deterring him'.[IISS institute claims]only way to'depress recruitment and motivation'...would be to find 'currently
elusive'solutions to messes such asIraq and Palestine. It guesses that 18,000-odd people, who were trained in terrorist tactics
by[Afghan]Talibanregime...but escaped...may be...ready to help al-Qaeda" . Not including Iraq, US State claims fewer terrorist
incidents in 2003 than for decades, and that coordinated police took "more than 3,400 suspected al-Qaeda people out of action,
including two-thirds of [its] leaders" .But "[W]orld's security specialists are almost unanimously gloomy. They say it is no
longer a question of if but when al-Qaeda will hit a western city again. Many expect it to explode a 'dirty bomb'- a device that
scatters radioactive material. [It] has simply been forced to change its structure and tactics. For reasons of logistics and
security, Mr. bin Laden nowappears to act mainly as a figurehead, ceding operational control to his chief lieutenant, Ayman
al-Zawahiri" . Preceding this: "Saudi Arabia: Why Terrorists are Targeting Islam's Holiest Land" (41-2). In Economist 26 Jun
04 "Al-Qaeda: Setbacks for Terror" (49-52), tactical update on some Muslim governments' successes against serious jihadi
terrorists. In Riyadh, Saudi police were able to kill four of country's most wanted terrorists, including al-Qaeda's local head,
and netted further dozen suspects. Algerian army cornered al-Qaeda-loyal cell and killed seven guerrillas, of which four were
identified senior leaders including group's commander. "In Bahrein and Morocco, police claimed to have rounded up two local
jihadi cells. InPakistan... missile fired from helicopter killed Pushtun tribal leader known to have succoured al-Qaedafugitives.
But if jihadi are down, they are certainly not out...al-Qaeda will soon strike back, if only to proveit is still punching" . Economist
14 Aug 04 "Chasing al-Qaeda: Plots, Alarms and Arrests" (22-4):-description of US "orange warning" due to "high risk" of
terrorist attack on several institutions. "Though based on new-found intelligence, threat to US financial establishments was
not new.[C]ache of al-Qaeda computer files...at least three years old." While large scale and immediate defence of reported
targets was felt inappropriate by many, practice may be useful and political experience. "Such lessons will probably take
another terrorist threat or two to master, but mastered they may eventually have to be. Because, as most al-Qaeda watchers
agree, quick end to war on terror is very hard to envisage." Currentlimitations/inclinations of al-Qaeda, and activities of its
opponents, discussed at some length.
The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Cuba: Hoping For a Transport Revolution" (36):- "Deep-water oil rig...moving into position...off
Cuba's north-west coast to sink two wildcat wells in...Gulf of Mexico waters. Successcould turn Cuba into an oil exporter,
transforming the economic outlook for Fidel Castro's bankrupt Communist regime" . In 1970s Cuba, Mexico and US shared
the Gulf before deep-water oil could be taken;US oil industry might now throw its weight "behind[multiple]moves to abandon
the trade embargo" . Canadianand Spanish firms have signed Cuban exploration agreements; others are watching. Cuban
output of oil and gas now is 75,000bpd so fuel/energy are conserved and transport scarce. "Many experts say there is lotsof
oil under Cuba's Gulf waters, as under those of Mexico and US...Any commercially viable deposit wouldtake five years and
$1.5 billion to develop...An offshore oil strike would allow...Castro to offer Cubansand the country's creditors some relief after
15 years of penury" .
The Economist 05 Jun 04 "United States Battling Proliferation: Win Some, Lose Some" (25-6):- "Bushafter[11 Sep] attacks,
promis[ed]to face down threat from spread of weapons of mass destruction.[He]will be pressing hard for curbs on proliferation
to be treated as epoch-shaping issue.[M]essage...helpedconvince Libya...to speed its exit out of elicit mass-destruction
business.[A]larming tales since emerged of..wholesale auctioning off of Pakistan's nuclear technologies, not just to Libya,
but to North Korea, Iranand possibly others, led UN Security Council[at Bush's urging]to pass resolution obliging all
governments to criminalise illicit weapons and technology transfers...Yet despite these diplomatic successes, andmoney being
spent on securing'loose nukes' ,...strategy still has plenty of critics.[While US was focused on Iraq,]North Korea went on
building more bombs[,]Iran thumbed its nose at[IAEA and otherswere]encouraged...to redouble their bomb-building." Many
other relevant US activities and inconsistencies reported towards India/Iraq/Iran/Israel/North Korea. "Stricter enforcement of
anti-proliferation rules has been hallmark of[Bush, since bin Laden/al-Qaeda positions]cast problem of treaty-breaking by
roguegovernments with terrorist links in alarming new light.[S]trategy has had some success" :EO and Russian
anti-proliferation action. "Bush wants to see greater restrictions on dangerous uranium-enrichment and
plutonium-reprocessing technologies[,yet wants to keep US nuclear]test-site bit readier." Economist 03 Jul 04 "North Korea:
Nuclear Chess" (35-6)and "Europe and Iran: A Common Flop" (42):-both comment on US' s differing history/negotiations with
these two nuclear-threatening states. Regarding North Korea, concludes "may be hoping for deal to its liking if John Kerry
wins US presidential election in Nov. MeanwhileGeorge Bush in no rush either.[S]cotched criticism from allies and Kerry alike
by showing...negotiating seriously. He has not yet sacrificed anything in nuclear game with North Korea, and maybe gained
a little." Second article, dealing with both European and US negotiations, concludes "Iran and Europeans seem now to be
playing for time, awaiting outcome of Nov's presidential election in US. But whoever wins,US is unlikely to tolerate
nuclear-arming Iran. Some Europeans hope that new administration might try talking to Iran. But, with US tied up in Iraq,
Iranians may calculate time is on their side and - so long as IAEA finds nothing new - that Europeans will never agree among
themselves to tougher line. If so, far from being success for Europe's common... policy, Iran could become big irritant in
relations between US and Europe" .
The Economist 05 Jun 04 "A Survey of Argentina: The Long Road Back" (1-12):-here is author's own introduction to text mainly
on economy/finance. "[S]urvey argue[s] Argentina and its president now have an extraordinary opportunity to do better.
[C]ountry's democracy has shown resilience, with little suggestion of a return to authoritarian rule. [T]urmoil claimed few lives.
Although prices rose by 40% in early 2002 as the peso slid, Lavagna, brought in as economy minister by Duhalde and kept
on by Kirchner, studied both theexchange rate and prices. After slow start, recovery has been swifter than many expected,
and similar to that in other countries that have unpegged...currencies. [G]reatly helped by outside factors: prices for
Argentina'sfarm exports soared after a long period of stagnation...So far, growth has come from bringing idle capacity back
into use. But bottlenecks -notably, energy shortages- are starting to appear. New investment is needed. [L]avagna points out
that investment last year increased by half; it reached 17% of GDP ...last quarter of 2003. But merely maintaining the capital
stock requires investment of 18% of GDP, says...economic consultant. If Argentina is to make the most of its
opportunity,[K]irchner will have to take swift, perhapsunpopular, action to clear up the unfinished business left over from the
collapse. But above all...need to draw...right lessons".
The Economist 05 Jun 04"SPECIAL REPORT on COPENHAGEN CONSENSUS: Putting the World to Rights"(63-5):-a panel of
distinguished economists met in Copenhagen to study high-quality analyses of global challenges to improve very serious lives
of people in developing countries, and to determine relative costs. "The organizing idea was that resources are scarce, and
difficult choices among good ideas therefore have to be made". Aim of the panel was to reach agreement on the best Priorities
that should be given to 17 Projects. Panel members agreed surprisingly closely in this orderof the priorities: (1)Diseases:
Control of HIV/AIDS. (2)Malnutrition: Providing micro nutrients. (3)Subsidies and Trade: Trade liberalisation. (4)Diseases:
Control of Malaria. (5)Malnutrition: Development of new agricultural technologies. (6)Sanitation and Water: Small- scale water
technology for livelihoods. (7)Sanitation and Water: Community-managed water supply and sanitation. (8)Sanitation and Water:
Research on water productivity in food production. (9)Government: Lowering cost of starting a new business. (10)Migration:
Lowering barriers to migration for skilled workers. (11)Malnutrition: Improving infant and child nutrition. (12)Malnutrition:
Reducing prevalence of low birth weight. (13)Diseases: Scaled-up basic health services. (14)Migration: Guest-worker programs
for the unskilled. (15)Climate:"Optimal" carbon tax. (16)Climate: Kyoto protocol. (17)Climate: Value-at-risk carbon task. The
priority list is based essentially on economics/finances, not on the relative urgency of the |