Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.

Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the Unknown (Toronto: Time Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious: 17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists and academics. Aim is to survey where scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be global and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and implications; "Third World" -relevant technology; genderdifferences; care of global commons and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy forms; ethical computing; "homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at trends and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example ofvaluable collections of what are in fact 21st-Century global issues, put together by good general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions like anniversaries or new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with subjects global in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably offer reading lists.

James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber) vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attacks onthat technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

Patricia Adams and Grainne Ryder, "China's Great Leap Backward: Uneconomic and Outdated, the Three Gorges Dam Will Stunt China's Economic Growth" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.4(Autumn 98):-fear of global warming produced above all by fossil fuels' carbon dioxide caused real concern about China's vast impact as world's largest producer/consumer of coal, worst fossil fuel CO2 source. Yet large hydroelectric dams also produced great environmental damage, and Three Gorges Dam will be largest in world. Hence article argues Dam hydro-generation should be replaced by "either combined cycle gas turbines or cogeneration [which] would reduce CO2 emissions by more than 60%" (694).(Explanation in article.)Unfortunately, case is made with such CO2 focus that critical purpose of dam "flood-control" is ignored. See massive global threat from flooding: Economist 11 Mar 00(op.cit.).

M. A. Adelman, The Genie Out of the Bottle: World Oil Since 1970(Cambridge: MIT Press 96):-possibly most serious challenges resulting from world economic/environmental change relate to producing/consuming energy. Oil is still world's most critical energy source and will never be exhausted; it will simply cease being economically retrievable...For those with economic experience, book provides excellent history of global trends in oil industry since it became major factor in world affairs, including OPEC's formation, OPEC-induced 70s oil price shocks, and 86 collapse of OPEC's attempt to control prices; it also provides backdrop to recent major changes in industry. For interesting statistical evidence that oil prices may play greater role in raising or lowering employment than interest rates/inflation/ productivity, see The Economist 01 Apr 00: "Oil and the New Economy" (72).

Shardul Agrawala and Steinar Andresen, "Indispensability and Indefensibility? The United States in the Climate Treaty Negotiations" Global Governance Vol.5/No.4(Oct/Dec 99):-insightful essay not only relevant to most critical environmental issue facing global community(Grubb 99 op.cit); helps explain both sudden changes or galling intransigence in US positions on variety multilateral questions(for UN: Lyons op.cit.).Recalls major US environment statements, policies and positions, and shows them surprisingly erratic even under same president. Then identifies powers and interests of many forces and often key individuals within US administrations, Congress, industry, public opinion and dedicated pressure groupsthat influenced environmental policy, and shows how their interplay affected or determined volatile orstubborn US position on climate change at various times.

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach the media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.

Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.

Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put these threats at the top of his national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries". Emphasized extracts:"Over the past eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons". "Obama's mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School of Government. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation. Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson "The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, but many political and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From first paragraph:"Over the past three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear agenda includes renewing formal arms control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear nonproliferation regime, and redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made this goal a priority for his administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he was Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.

Philip G.Altbach & Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign Policy No.144 (Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be influenced by "worldly" visions. Despitenew global concerns with terrorism" there is no holding back the flow of students seeking education beyond their borders" ;Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase to8m by 2025." Regarding content," literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/ management, engineering, mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asian countries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled through distance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leading receiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000), Britain(223,000),France(135,000), Germany(185,000), US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own study/livingexpenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintainstrong ties from abroad, some eventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies by providing expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remains problem for many poorer societies" . It may then be related to expenses that "increasing number[of potential foreign student payers is]looking for new options in developing world" ;emergence of mega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of'brain trade'forever.

Roger C.Altman "The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West"(2-14) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"The economic collapse of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the West. It has stripped Wshdc and European governments of the resources and credibility they need to maintain their roles in global affairs. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the meantime they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the US". Emphasized extracts:"The crisis' underlying cause was the combination of very low interest rates and unprecedented levels of liquidity". "US deficit for the fiscal year that began in Oct 08 will approach $1 trillion - or 7.5% of US GDP". Altman is Chair/CEO of Evercore Partners. Was US Deputy Treasury Secretary 93-4.

Sudhir Anand & Amartya K.Sen Sustainable Human Development: Concepts and Priorities(New York: UNDP/ODS 96):-tries to provide rationale for bringing together narrowly environmental view of "sustainable" world and case for eliminating "inequities" in living conditions. Argument for "human development" (pushed by UNDP/World Bank/this bibliography)made well, but its role in population control and easing pressure on the planet's carrying capacity mentioned only weakly and indirectly. General economic development( "overall opulence" )criticized as "partisan" for failing "to take note of need for impartiality in allocating entitlements" i.e.collective statistics hide unacceptable inequities. Imbalanced - or at least imperfect - defence of key imperatives.

Chris Anderson"The Young(stressing Youth and Age)"The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explores causes/elements/ global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing down of traditional... order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace of change(technological/ social)favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things (including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/ replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; risk futures; preferopportunity to wealth/security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth'sgrowing role/impact in decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge]. Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow;increasingly they are leaders of today" .

Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" . There are many references to a sustainable environment.

Kofi A. Annan, "UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world" .[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]

Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit diseasetreatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New is range/scale/ intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists:articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidating population/compelling actionby government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus and strengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/ disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichment and urged to voluntary time-limitedmoratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitor compliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far moreengaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hasten efforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation.Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to give strategic focus for workin states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions:(1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposedminimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/ pre-emptive actionagainst imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take actionearlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/other comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommendsstrengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform.Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole; not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press, "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" in New York Times 12 Jan 00:- article deals with a real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal. Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross the earth's orbit. This number produces about a 1% chance of one hitting the earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material believed left over from the formation of the solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of a mile to six miles, they are big enough to "wreak global disaster" . NASA has just lowered the estimated numberof such killers to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within the next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able to destroy cities. Britain has just set up a risk assessment committee. AP, "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" in NYT 18 Sep 00:-the committee mentioned above is reported to have urged the British government to seek international partners to fund a powerful new telescopeto be stationed in the southern hemisphere and governments should launch joint studies to assess how to destroy an object on a collision course with the planet. The committee estimated that a "wide object" crashes into our planet every 10,000 years with the force of a 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a little[money]into making certain we know if there is a danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet" .

Associated Press," Researchers Produce a Healthier Rice" in New York Times 14 Jan 00: -item reports that " scientists have genetically engineered a type of rice that could end vitamin A deficiency in the developing world" . About 14m children worldwide are deficient; so besides reducing widespread blindness, raising vitamin A levels could prevent 1-2m deaths a year. Swiss researchers successfully spliced three genes into rice to make it rich in beta carotene, a source of vitamin A. While tests are ensuring the original nutritional value is maintained, the famous International Rice Research Institute(IRRI) is working tobreed the trait into popular rice varieties. New developments are reported in David Barboza, "AstraZeneca to Sell a Genetically Engineered Strain of Rice" NYT 16 May(Note to Anthony DePalma," Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets..." ).

Associated Press, "China Refines Birth-Control Policy" New York Times 07 May 00:-with new government policy, China"hopes to limit its growing population to 1.4b people in 2010 by refining" its current policy. This is unlikely feat, given that present official figure of 1.25b may understate real total by tens of millions, and experts believe population will actually peak about 1.6b around 2050. Beijing claims:" A more perfect control system will be built and a better environment...created...[S]afe, effective and proper contraceptive methods should be made available to women...Nevertheless, population will increase by 10m/year in next few decades".Officials already worry this will outstrip finite supplies of water, farmlandand other resources, requiring major grain imports, but an unintended population-control factor has developed: boys being preferred, China may already have 100m more males than females.

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain theseparatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China'policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said" .

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):-former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Ronald Bailey edit.,The True State of the Planet: Ten of World's Premier Researchers in a Major Challenge to the Environmental Movement(New York: Free Press 95):-similar approach to Easterbrook(op.cit.)but uneven in its claimed iconoclasm. The sections on forestry, biodiversity, fisheries, water and air pollution, chemical-cancer and technological-economic links seem sound, and even orthodox. The sections on population, food supply and global warming, while not inaccurate, seem unfairly selective in drawing facts and optimistic conclusions, and in ignoring important factors to do so.

Ronald Bailey, "A Clean and Comfortable Planet Without Global Regulation" (171-9)and Gareth Porter, "Why We Need the United Nations to Protect the Global Environment" (181-9)in Ted Galen Carpenter, edit.,Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention(Washington: Cato Institute, 1997):- for book annotation, see Carpenter(op.cit.) Contrasting articles disagree less over reality of environmentalproblems than over whether UN/ states should do anything about them. Bailey argues UN programs wouldcost money and thus slow wealth-creation - the automatic solution. Similarly, if left alone, world farmerscould produce as much as US corn-growers do today -and feed 10 billion people at present US calorie levels on half the present cropland(174). Global warming is unlikely (UN estimates biased)but if world economy left alone to get rich, costs can be borne. Porter summarizes consensus views on climate change, ozonedepletion, ocean pollution, fish depletion, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and argues they can be addressedonly by global cooperation. He outlines diverse views that impede UN policy/ action, but concludes that the UN is indispensable for progress.

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Felicity Barringer "Nations Ranked as Protectors of the Environment"New York Times 24 Jan 05:-2005 has produced"index of environmental sustainability, which ranks nations on their success at such tasks asmaintaining/improving air and water quality, maximizing biodiversity and cooperating with other countries on environmental problems...Report is based on 75 measures, including rate at which children die from respiratory diseases, fertility rates[of what?], water quality, overfishing, emission of heat-trapping gases, and export of sodium dioxide, crucial component of acid rain. Report also cited statisticallysignificant correlation between high-ranking countries and[those]with open political systems/effective governments."Top ten out of 146 countries studied were(in their order):Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden, Iceland, Canada, Switzerland, Guyana, Argentina, Austria. US ranked 45th, behind such countries as Japan, Botswana, Bhutan, most of Western Europe. Lowest-ranking country was North Korea; others near bottom were Haiti, Taiwan, Iraq, Kuwait. Index is second produced in collaboration with World Economic Forum(Davos, Switzerland).

Christopher de Bellaigue "THINK AGAIN: IRAN" Foreign Policy No.148 (May/Jun 05) (18-24):-like other FPissues, correction of nine public concepts; here: about Iranian nuclear weapons production/use or its positive response to stiff US pressure. Author first outlines widely-held views( "Under-lined Statements" ); states FIRM REACTIONS; and then provides his view of actual truth. He first provides summary: "Tehran's desire for nuclear bomb has put it in Washington's cross hairs. But neither President George W.Bush'srepeated condemnations of Iran's clerical rulers, nor the threat of military force will advance cause ofdemocracy there. When Iran reforms, it will happen because its youth - not the United States - demands it." "If Iran Gets a Nuclear Bomb, Iran Will Use It"-VERY UNLIKELY. "Iran almost certainly does not intendto brandish a nuclear bomb in an attempt to intimidate...Israel/US... Further, clerics have blessed a partial detente with their Arab neighbours and...EU.[Yet] there is plausible circumstantial evidence ...to suggestthat Iran's nuclear program is not civilian. [N]uclear ambiguity is calculated, a reaction to the vulnerability it feels. Iran probably intends to gather all the elements necessary for bomb making, so that it can gonuclear the moment that it feels an attack is imminent." "Iran Has No Use for Nuclear Power"-False."Energy needs are rising faster than [Iran's oil/gas] ability to meet them... Its capacity must nearly triple over 15 years to meet projected demand[,and the electricity cannot all come] from the oil sector. [Output] has stagnated at around 3.7mbd since late 1990s. Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally [and the natural] gas reserves are only just being tapped. It makes sense for Iran to free up its hydrocarbons for export [and] Iran contends that US may pressure foreign sellers into stopping the flow. [Hence] Iran'sdesire for a complete fuel cycle is most suspicious aspect of nuclear program"."The Iranian People Support Their Leaders' Nuclear Program"-NOT REALLY. "Iranians who vocally support...nuclear ambitions...minority[;] never witnessed spontaneous discussion of nuclear program among average Iranians...Unlikely many Iranians willing to put up with economic/diplomatic isolation...if Iran insisted on enriching uranium"."Only the Threat of Force Can Dissuade Iran from Advancing with Its Nuclear Plans"-DOUBTFUL."Threat...could also...encourage Iran to leave NPT and develop a nuclear weapon ASAP...[N]ever abandons goal of achieving a nuclear fuel cycle... Iran is more flexible than it appears...[It might] revise its nuclear plans if US abandoned its [hard policies] ...Ultimately it might refuse to publicly relinquish nuclear goals, preferring instead to extend current negotiations indefinitely"."U.S. Military Action Would Embolden Dissidents to Topple the Islamic Republic"-WRONG. "Workers...keeping their heads down andmouths shut... Iranians don't want Iraq's wretched conditions... Iranians opposed to Islamic Republic lack a unifying ideology... Possible some Iranians would cheer a US invasion, but not for long". "Criticizing the Islamic Republic Helps Dissidents Inside Iran"-NO. "Bush's repeated statements of support for Iranian people do not help normal Iranians... Publicly defending beleaguered reformists simply allowed clerics to accuse reformers of being US lackeys...US criticism has perverse effect because US has no diplomatic or economic relations with Iran, and hence no leverage. EU and others [have] some modest leverage with Iran's clerical rulers". "If Iraq Becomes a Democracy, so Will Iran"-WISHFUL THINKING. "Border is about all they share...Few Iranians...question Iran's integrity within its current borders. Same is not true in Iraq...Iran set up a semi-democratic, anti-Western, Shia theocracy... Clerics today enjoy considerable prestige"."Iran Cannot Be Reformed from Within"-WRONG AGAIN. "Iran can and will be reformed from within. Demographics make that course inevitable. Some 70% of Iran's 70m citizens under age of 30, and young Iranians are more reform-minded than older groups... Young people resent existing political restrictions more than their elders, and are less religiously observant... Spread of material values and sexual freedom is palpable, as is desire for smaller families...Young people display little animus for once-hated US...[Yet]reform-minded millions lack common ideology/ leadership... New generation will... spur further reform. Process would benefit from critical dialogue with US, rather than current, glowering standoff".

C.Fred Bergsten"A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge"(57-69) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.4(Jul/Aug 08):-official summary:"Despite its growing economic clout, China continues to act like a small country with little impact on the global system at large and therefore little responsibility for it. Behavior threatens to undermine the existing international economic architecture. To avoid a major train wreck, Wshdc should seek todevelop true partnership with Beijing so as to provide joint leadership of global economic system"-e.g. trade/finance/energy/climate. Bergsten:Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Essay adapted from his forthcoming, co-authored book, China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (Peterson Institute and Center for Strategic and International Studies, 08). See very current: Elizabeth C.Economy & Adam Segal "China's Olympic Nightmare: What the Games Mean for Beijing's Future"(47-56):-off.sum:"The 2008 Olympics were meant to be China's global coming-out party. But on the eve of Games, Beijing finds itself beset by internal protests and international condemnation on issues ranging from Darfur/Tibet to air pollution/food safety. If these challenges cannot be peacefully/successfully addressed, China risks losing its credibility as a global leader". Economy: C.V.Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at Council on Foreign Relations. Segal:Maurice R.Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at CFR.

Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.

Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book is often described as the greatest defense for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in economic policy orin the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled withthe pursuit of free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent into trade sanctions and restrictions. [H]e argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defense of Globalization"(Oxford Univ 04), offers a 300+pp broader approach.

Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.

Nancy Birdsall & Arvind Subramanian"Saving Iraq From Its Oil" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4 (Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy, since they tend to impede developmentof institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation". In both this and Fareed Zakaria The Future of Freedom(73-6)(op.cit.) oil/minerals criticized for "richness" .[In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to basic/processed elements(still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it(slaves? elephant tusks? diamonds?)].Essay is (otherwise)useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when they have local oil production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.

Matthew Bishop, "Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" in The Economist 29 Jan 00(1-22) :-this SURVEY claims that "globalization, accelerated by the Internet, is exposing serious flaws in the world's tax systems[even though]the taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization "might damage tax systems so badly that it could'lead to governments being unable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens for public services' " (5). Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens), plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes, while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possiblereaction: global tax-harmonization agreements; more consumption/environment taxes.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions... increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus] other extreme/ increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems ...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainable manufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force] is good news, but...change/ ambition requiredwill be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/ research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/globalpolicy must encourage development/ commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigateeffects of climate change...G8 can take global lead both in making world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8 [also] opportunity to agree on what most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively with other countries' growing energy needs...toensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seeminevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad. [Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto take root and spread[to globe.] Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests[while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense of hopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playing increasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth.[This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progress we need... coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/ growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/ security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but theirmain texts/distributions differ.

Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.

Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun 06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will lastfor decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another [major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".

Keith Bradsher"Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:- "The sleet,bulbous-nosed new bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they represent the start of a 180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction, system scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives, offering alternative to clogged highways and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may... control oil imports, curb fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded train will use only sixth of energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with bus ride, figures are half the energyand a quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost - $15b... - madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down through western Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles... System will start with 19 trains in each direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90 minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need to cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how many people use its somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is developed around these stations and how much tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High - Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed high-speed rail system geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and embarrassing ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins. [I]t represents colossal effort toimprove transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment. [P]roblems that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about being unable to use credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours from Taipei".

Christopher Bright, "Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization" in Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-this essay summarizes Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton & Co., 1998). Bright claims: "World trade has become the primary driver of one of the most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of foreign, invasive species are hitch-hiking through the global trading network aboard ships, planes, and railroad cars...This' biological pollution'is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions" (50). Counter-policies largely ineffective, control mechanisms(UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes the situation ever worse. Bright offersmuch information: animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda:control ballast release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).

Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the 300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines; Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison; Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos; New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.

William J.Broad"Giant Leap for Private Industry: Spies in Space"New York Times 13 Oct 99:- described as "one of most significant developments in history of space age" with potential to be "revolutionary" ,Space Imaging Inc., private company owned by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, recently exhibited photograph, taken by Eastman Kodak camera and telescope system, from its own satellite orbiting at 400 miles that shows details only meter in size. Hailed as world's first private spy satellite,image sharpness reportedly rivals acts of military spy satellites. Pentagon expected to be main customer: such photos canaid detection of countries trying to set off underground nuclear explosions in secret, as well as help geographers, urban planners, etc. Three other companies plan to put similar satellites in orbit in a year, and perhaps dozen may fly in next decade. Photo prices already being quoted. [Aerial photos are invaluable for environmental ends.]

William J.Broad"Maybe We Are Alone in the Universe, After All"New York Times 08 Feb 00:-in one SETI(search for extraterrestrial intelligence) project alone, 1.6m people in 224 countries have donated 165,000 years computer time to analyse signals from space picked up by one radio telescope. The Economist 29 Jul 00"Divide and Conquer" (77-8):brings the project up-to-date by reporting that over 2m computers are involved and that in the 15 months since its launch 345,000 years' worth of computer time have been put in. This article is more detailed on the enormous technical and economic potential of "distributed computing" . For instance, the machines involved are" collectively the equivalent of a computer operating at around ten million million calculations a second, about ten times faster than any conventional supercomputer. Meanwhile, planets of one sort or another are being located at an accelerating rate by astronomers, while astrobiologists estimate our galaxy could include a million advanced societies; the universe: 10 trillion. On the other hand, in their book "Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe" (New York: Copernicus, 2000), Drs. D.C.Brownlee and P.D.Ward claim recent scientific data imply humans may be alone in the cosmos. They do not question that "life is an inherent property of matter,as most scientists believe" , and" strongly encourage" SETI work to test their hypothesis, but argue Earth's "composition and stability are extraordinarily rare. Most everywhere else, the radiation levels are too high, the right chemical elements too rare.., the hospitable planets too few...and the rain of killer rocks toointense for life ever to have evolved into advanced communities" , though microbes may survive in many places. Debate is lively and fascinating.

Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier(World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.

L.Anathea Brooks & Stacy D.VanDeveer edit. Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park: Maryland Sea Grant 97):-although focused on environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, book is not technical for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes broad/thoughtful look at every major aspect of environmentalism, using coastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, Nature (environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases); Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge (scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and Institutions (changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics);Approaching Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.

Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).

Lester R.Brown"Feeding Nine Billion"(115-32)in State of the World(1999)(New York: W.W.Norton, 99):-main points: World grain harvests grew from 400m tons in 1900 to nearly 1.9b in 1998, aided by massiveirrigation (40% of food), chemical fertilizers, huge plant-breeding advances, short-stem wheat/rice, hybridcorn - such cropland assets being globally available. Yet 840m people are hungry/malnourished(19,000 children die daily from effects of malnutrition). Other two basic food-supply systems - oceanic fisheries andrangelands - appear to have reached global carrying capacity, and per capita grain production hasdecreased 7% since 1984. Meanwhile the current 6b world population is expected to grow to 9b about 2050, during which period net global harvested area is expected to be almost unchanged, and to continuedropping per capita to 0.07 hectares(1950=0.23). Mounting water scarcity has reduced irrigated area per capita by 6% since 1978, simultaneously lowering fertilizing capacity - and levelling off for lack of further benefit. Remaining route to increased food productivity - plant breeding - could raise drought-, disease-, insect-resistance and salt-tolerance, but now little gain is physiologically possible for wheat, corn and ricein terms of further raising crop yields. It all means that eradication of hunger and malnutrition now may depend heavily on demand-side initiatives: slowing population growth and using grain and water more efficiently.

Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point; Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry; Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses); 5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts; Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise; Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8. Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well (Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Proteir More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain; Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy; Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy: 2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).

John Browne, "Beyond Kyoto" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-substantial, sympathetic, expert arguments by BP executive that, as 1997 treaty now blocked, its vital action be updated. "Kyoto Protocolis coming unraveled. Despite nearly a decade of effort, it may not even enter into force as a binding instrument...Canada, Japan, and European Union...are not on track to meet their commitments[and US haswithdrawn entirely.]...Clear-eyed realism is essential. But display...is mistaken reaction. There is scope for different and more positive view...First, it has become obvious that Kyoto was simply starting point of very long [progressing] endeavour. Second, we have improved, if still imperfect, knowledge of challengesand uncertainties climate change presents, as well as better understanding of time scales involved. Third,many countries and companies have had experience reducing emissions and have proved that suchreductions can be achieved without destroying competitiveness or jobs. Fourth, science and technologyhave advanced on multiple fronts...Finally, public awareness of issue has grown - not just in developed world but all around the globe. [It] is becoming clear that reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is soluble problem, and that mechanisms for delivering solutions are within reach. In that spirit of cautious optimism, it is time to move beyond current Kyoto debate." Bulk of text amplifies each of five points.

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Zbigniew Brzezinski "Hegemonic Quicksand" The National Interest Winter 03/04(5-16):-long article on future instability excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership. Claims unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing similar to past "European Balkans" )is region between Europe and Far East. "For next several decades, most volatile and dangerous region of world - with explosive potential to plunge world into chaos - will be crucial swathe[from approximately Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and fromRusso-Kazakh border to southern Afghanistan]... Here that America could slide into collision with world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. Two eventualities together could then put prevailing American global hegemony at risk.[C]hallengeAmerica now confronts, dwarfs what it faced half-century ago in Western Europe [since]to promote global security will be pacification and then cooperative organization of region that contains world's greatest concentration of political injustice, social deprivation, demographic congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But region also contains most of world's oil and natural gas...In 2020 area projected to produce roughly 42m barrels of oil per day - 39% of global production total...No self-evident answers to such basic questions as how and with whom America should be engaged in helping to stabilize area, pacifyit and eventually cooperatively organize it." Then notes that some states in area could be US potential key partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four are then examined in detail but ruled out for various reasons. "Ultimately US can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe. Although it will need help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither likely at this stage to become heavily engaged. Only Europe...potential capacity in political, military and economic realms to pursue jointly with US task of engaging various Eurasian peoples...US and Europe together represent array of physical and experientialassets with capacity to make decisive difference in shaping political future of Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur, however, if expected to consist of simply following US lead" .Latter portionof paper discusses whether and how US and Europe can work together in improving issues of area. Specific attention made to problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, Gulf states, Caucasus and Central Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to" need to contain both proliferation of WMD and terrorist epidemic." Paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes quicksand only more dangerous."

Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

R.A.Buchanan The Power of the Machine: The Impact of Technology from 1700 to the Present (London: Penguin Books 94):-approach differs from, say, Bell, Drucker or Toffler(op.cit.)in that, in analysing accelerating transformation of society, it deals more with physical than societal changes, with new structures more than their social implications. While UN actions must reflect both trends-and resulting concerns- "most pervasive/persistent stimulus to change has been technological combination of scientific discovery and technical innovation" .For truly revolutionary example of technology being explored, see K.Eric DrexlerEngines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday 87):-genuine feasibility of creating assembly machines smaller than living cells generated increasing attention from 1990s because of their multiple uses. For an excellent 18-years-later account of global nanotechnology activities/anticipation, see Natasha Loder "Small Wonders: A Survey of Nanotechnology" The Economist01 Jan 05(1-12):-key point "Nanotechnology will give humans greater control of matter at tiny scales. That is a good thing." Enormous, if scientifically basic, concept behind booming business initiatives isexplained, and" point about nanotechnology is that it sets out deliberately to exploit strange properties found in these very small worlds." Four other essays summarized: "Apply Here: Where very small thingscan make big difference." "Fear and Loathing: Some of worries about nanotechnology are rational." "Downsizing: Companies both large and small hope to make big money from tiny particles." "Handle with Care: Nanotechnology promises great benefits, but safeguards will be essential." Drexler's idea" that one day all manufacturing would be done by very tiny robots" had raised terror; but now activity/research quite specific/monitored. Survey concludes" idea of 'democratising' nanotechnology - giving ordinary people more of say in what areas of S&T should be pursued - unlikely to be helpful.[N]ext to impossible to slow down or control some areas of science in one country when world so interconnected...Nanotechnology, like any new discovery, offers both risks and rewards...Scientists should...work with as little hindrance as possible."

Lucius Caflisch "Regulation of the Uses of International Waterways: The Contribution of the United Nations" (3-35)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work(Westport: Praeger 98):-Charterrequires UNGA "initiate studies and make recommendations for purpose of:..encouraging progressivedevelopment of international law and its codification." Much effective work done by expert 34-memberInternational Law Commission whose drafts passed to UNGA for decision. This greatly increased body of international law at time when need for it expanding. Describes in lay terms how newly explosive issue, "development, apportionment and use of water resources[and]one of world's major economic and social problems" handled in UN. Growing demand, hence rising competition for scarce resource made it delicate exercise.

Frances Cairncross "Environmental Pragmatism" Foreign Policy No.95(Summer 94)(35-52):- recommendation is summed up briefly: a "combination of appropriate government policies and technological change is thebest hope of fusing economic growth and environmental protection" . A hard-nosed approach(water problems before climate), but her main priority has become to use economic carrots and sticks to motivate sustainable actions.

Ted Galen Carpenter edit. Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention (Washington: Cato Institute 97):-Cato aims to further "traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, and peace." Libertarian view inclines it to oppose multilateralism (it inter alia limits US global freedom of action)and all constraints on free enterprise. Topics: UN in Perspective; Peacemaker-Peacekeeper; Bureaucracy-Funding- Corruption; Social and Environmental Agenda; Economic Development Role. 18 essays clearly stress Cato views. Only five sympathetic to UN aims/activities; 10 or so reasonable, even if bit selective or broad, in criticism. Last deliberately distort, and in their narrow-minded, selfish jingoism, exhibit true "delusions of grandeur": John Bolton: " [Clinton] forgot that UN was instrument to be used to advance America's foreign policy interests, not to engage in international social work..." (51; his emphasis)! Provides rationales of many US anti-UN views.

Edward Carr"The Sea: A Second Fall"The Economist 23 May 98(1-18):-broad if necessarily concise Survey of all major trends and problems relating to the oceans - today and anticipated. Among varied subjects covered are: increases in its human exploitation and our dependency; end of "unlimited" utilization, and last great hunting-gathering culture; need for same sort of global and state controls as exist for land use; vast areas of unknown living and mineral resources; pollution(man-made and natural), algal blooms, coast and reef destruction; sealife and its nutrients; (over)fishing: new expansion areas and controls(world's fishingfleet is 53% superfluous); ocean trends and currents(El Nino, global warming); shipping(see Griffiths et al. - op.cit); new lessons to be learned.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Jennifer Clapp, "The Privatization of Global Environmental Governance: ISO 14000 and the Developing World" Global Governance Vol.4/No.3 (Jul-Sep 1998):- several global trends are discussed: (1) the increasing number and recognition of voluntary codes of conduct for private firms and standard-setting bodies; (2) the additional mixed public-private systems for creating international rules and procedures; (3) the profoundimpact of such standards on international environmental law; and (4) the small LDC role in the process, despite its major implications for both LDC laws and trade. A study of the seminal International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14000 series of environmental management standards serves to illustrate the above important trends.

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s), (un)popularity, (dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

Walter J.Clemens Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take- All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham orRevolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

Walter J.Clemens Jr,"From AD 2000 to AD 2025: Six Alternative Futures" International Journal Vol.LIV/No.2(Spring 99):-interesting/balanced exercise in futurology using relatively conservative global views to create believable: (1)Unipolar Stability: benign US hegemony extends most current/surprise-freeglobal trends.(2) Fragmented Chaos: environmental- pandemic-autarkic fears come true; global injusticeprovokes anger/violence; WMDs proliferate; China turns unstable; all reflecting a low level of global cooperation.(3) Hegemon Challenged: China becomes powerful bully; either intimidates or is faced down by US.(4)Bipolar Cooperation: China turns democratic/cooperative.(5)Multipolar Cooperation: Most countries turn democratic/ prosperous.(6)Global Governance Without World Government: trans-national civil societyand governments share powers at many levels. Interdependence may force the last.

Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat (Ebury Press 04):-book not available here, but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04"The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet" (83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce;greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocricy, ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor...As man's appetite for fish has grown, sohas ability to catch them. Modern gadgets...enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before.[But]signs of growing scarcity everywhere[,and]most efforts to manage fish stocks or controloverfishing failed.[Hence fishermen]moved on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited. [D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though some kinds of fish...can now be farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or...mining. [I]nternational agencies monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail. [Lots of unneeded] 'by-catch' generally flung back into sea. Waste is appalling; cruelty equally vile. Trawlers... wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out in... excellent book... He exposes follies of fishermen, politicians,celebrity chefs[and] anyone with access to common resource has interest in over- exploiting it... In time farming may help" [but also morecareful supervision and management].

Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic]prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Gordon Conway, The Doubly Green Revolution: Food for All in the 21st Century (London: Penguin Books, 1997):-an expert survey of food problems and potential in developing countries. It offers specific advice oneradicating hunger and rapidly reducing the 750m undernourished(as pledged at the World Food Summit)through a complex but realistic second Green Revolution. Topics: global hunger and poverty; 2020prospects; specific needs; the Green Revolution's successes; where it missed the poor; pollution from pesticides and fertilizer; production trends and priorities; biotechnology; sustainable agriculture; farmers' input; pest control; nutrients; soil and water management; other resources; food security.

Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future". Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of purpose/confidence in itself."

Gwyneth Cravens Power To Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy(New York: Alfred A.Knopf 07):-valuable source at a time when nuclear power once again gaining global popularity in light of climate change threats from fossil fuel emissions. While text is 450pp long and partly technological/scientific, it appears carefully and honestly drafted, and able to be used "here-and-there" as a source. Editorial summary is itself impressive, e.g."...On the nuclear tour, Cravens converses with scientists from many disciplines, public health and counterterrorism experts, engineers, and researchers who study both the harmful and benign effects of radiation; she watches remote-controlled robotic manipulators unbolt a canister of spent uranium fuel inside a 'hot cell' bathed in eerie orange light; observes the dark haze from fossil-fuel combustion obscuring once-pristine... skies and the leaky, rusted pipes and sooty puddles in a coal-fired plant; glimpses rainbows made by salt dust in the deep subterranean corridors of a working nuclear waste repository. She refutes the major arguments against nuclear power one by one... And she demonstrates how, time and again, political fearmongering and misperceptions about risk have trumped science in the dialogue about the feasibility of nuclear energy. In the end, we see how nuclear power has been successfully and economically harnessed... around the globe to become the single largest displacer of greenhouse gases, and how its overall risks and benefits compare with those of other energy sources. [A]n eloquent, convincing argument for nuclear power as a safe energy source and an essential deterrent to global warming".

Chester A.Crocker & Fen Osler Hampson, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict(Washington: US Institute of Peace Press 96):-42 expert/practical essays(675pp)offeringnew facts/thinking regarding global challenges, and how resulting conflicts might be met(e.g. by UN).Challenges include: many weak(or failed)states; ethnic conflicts; religio-cultural militancy; populationpressures; resource crises(shortages, disputes);global competition; radical military technology(Adams op.cit.);mega-terrorism. Stress on preventive action.

Richard Dawkins, Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder(New York: Houghton Mifflin 98):-assumption is that people are increasingly aware of global scale of many human problems. Yet rapidly expanding knowledge of scientific facts and forces not only created suchawareness, but many global problems themselves. Also science's understanding of human evolution can bring profound feelings of cosmic insignificance and purposelessness. Yet many specialists in fields draw quite different conclusions. Dawkins is one and may well be best person clarifying science for non-experts. His other famous books:Climbing Mount Improbable(New York: W.W.Norton, 96);The Selfish Gene: New Edition(Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1992);The Blind Watchmaker(Harlow: Longman S&T 86). More thansimply populariser of science, Dawkins has capacity to explain variety of complex and debated conceptsin easily understood way, with amusing examples. His clear priority and speciality is to defend Darwinism, and educate non-specialists about latest scientific thinking on how and why evolution takes place. His 1998 book has particular aim of demonstrating that purely scientific view of life and universe need not be empty/ purposeless, but can be extremely uplifting. However, he offers fascinating new information in several fields. For short(160pp)explanation of evolution and its implications, in Science Masters Series, see River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life(New York: Basic Books 95). Here Dawkins carefully addressesseveral sincere "Creation-" and/or "Purpose-related" critiques of modern evolution and biological theory. He ends discussion of how "replication" transformed Earth with hope that better understanding of our place in universe "might have some beneficial effects upon our normally parochial little consciousnesses" .

Richard Dawkins The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Life(London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson 04/Phoenix of Orion Books 05):-author's description of the 700 pages describing this planet's living history since life began: "Tale is a pilgrimage: a journey of four billion years. We, modern human beings, are the pilgrims, and we are travelling back in time to seek out our ancestors. Simultaneously every other living creature is setting off on its own journey with the same mission. Each pilgrim tells its tale along the way, and covers the processes involved in the unfolding of life on Earth". The 40+ chapters describe in turn the form(s) of life progressively in or from more distant periods, offering the best available scientific knowledge/theory, including of course many fossils, and their estimated dates. While much of the necessary vocabulary used is complex, Dawkins writes generously - and often amusingly - for non-scientist readers. Among the many favourable reviews carried in the introduction is one by John Cornwell of Sunday Times: "Beautifully written... Dawkins's account cites a stunning array of biologists past and present. No other book gives such an impression of sheer intellectual vitality and pluralism among the past century's evolutionary scientists. Virtually every page exemplifies a memorable insight into the strangeness and prodigality of nature, its culs-de-sac and its extraordinary leaps". I have read the long text, but each chapter can be read alone.

Francis M.Deng et al. Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa(Washington: Brookings 96):- conclusion of 7-volume project to help governments/international community deal with conflicts in least stable continent(Reader op.cit.).Probes African states' responsibility: balance sovereignty sanctity against transborder political/economic/moral relevance of human rights violations/internal violence. Project concludes UN has unique role to play in Africa as both mediator and healer.

Anthony DePalma," The'Slippery Slope'of Patenting Farmers' Crops" New York Times 24 May 00:-as noted elsewhere, much of the controversy over genetically modified organisms(GMO), derives from their high costs in R&D and the consequent concern of biotechnology companies to ensure "adequate returns" throughpatents(or intellectual property rights(IPRs); see Paarlberg)relating to their products. The most infamouspatent defenses were "terminator genes" in cereal seeds that could not reproduce, and thus prevented re-seeding(Economist 9 Oct 99). This ensured annual seed purchases -and prohibitive costs in LDCs. DePalma reports CIMMYT, the Green Revolution's famous non-profit International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico, though founded to make high-yield products available free to LDCs, has had to start patenting its work as a defensive tactic to block attempts by others to patent its discoveries and thus keep small farmers from using them. Before companies/ countries contribute to CIMMYT's research, they also require patents in their own self-defense. A consolation is that reproductive genes will be included in seeds distributed in LDCs. Another GMO patent-related development is reported in DePalma/Simon Romero," Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets, and Brazil May Be Next" NYT 16 May. TheUS, Brazil and Argentina together grow 80% of the world's 157m tonnes of soybeans annually, but have different rules for GM varieties. In the US several conditions must be met: for Monsanto, farmers pay a feefor each bag of seed, agree not to save seed for the following year( "terminator" seeds were dropped after an outcry), and accept inspections if they claim to have stopped using the seed. In Argentina, where perhaps90% of the soybean crop is genetically altered, but its patents are not recognized, there are effectively no rules. In Brazil, use of altered varieties is not (yet) legal, but they are clearly smuggled in; up to 30% of soybeans may already be uncontrolled GMO. A "global regulatory mechanism" is obviously needed. Meanwhile, US regulations were tightened further. Associated Press reported on May 3"F.D.A. Announces New Steps for Regulation of Biotech Food" , according to which the US Food and Drug Administration willrequire biotech companies to notify it at least four months before releasing "new genetically engineered ingredients for food and animal feed" , and to provide their research data. The FDA will also set" truthful and informative" standards for food processors wanting to label products made with or without such ingredients. Also mainly in response to new consumer concerns, the North American retail food industry and exporters are facing novel problems in separating out GM products, because of their explosive increase in use and saving. Some major food companies have stopped sales of selected GM-based products, according to David Barboza in" Modified Foods Put Companies in a Quandary" NYT 3 Jun. However, none has found it feasible to abandon biotech ingredients entirely, since about 70% of US grocery-store food may have been made with genetically altered crops. A related dilemma has arisenin Europe. Donald G. McNeil Jr.," Anxiety on Genetically Altered Seed Spreads in Europe" NYT 20 May, reports on the divergent reactions of the British, French and Swedish governments on discovering that a tiny amount in one seed variety in an order of long-planted Canadian canola had inadvertently carried a genetically-modified trait.

Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.

Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.

Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/ objective look at globalized world production, trade, financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies, individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history, nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment; different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, service industries; effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.

Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.

Philippe Douste-Blazy & Daniel Altman"A Few Dollars at a Time: How to Tap Consumers for Development"(2-7) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-official summary:"This year, consumers purchasing airline tickets will have a chance to at the same time contribute to the global fight against HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. This initiative is part of a new movement called innovative financing, which seeks to share a tiny fraction of globalization's enormous gains with sick people in poor countries". Final sentence of impressive text:"The backers of innovative financing mechanisms, such as UNITAID, have two main responsibilities: to help fight diseases through novel ways of raising money and also to ensure that their success does not undermine the existing efforts [-government aid budgets-] they set out to strengthen". Douste-Blazy, who served as France's Foreign Minister 2005-07, is currently the United Nation's Special Advisor for Innovative Financing for Development and Chair of UNITAID. Altman is President of North Yard Economics, a not-for-profit consulting firm serving developing countries. Article is adapted from their book on innovative financing, which will be published in Jan 10 by PublicAffairs.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known as crusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion". Other elements are described: the serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis and recommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:- item leads discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

Celia W.Dugger"Overfarming African Land Is Worsening Hunger Crisis"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"The degradation of farmland across sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated at an ominous rate over past decade, deepening hunger crisis that already afflicts more than 240m Africans, according to a study released [30 Mar].Three quarters of Africa's farmland severely depleted of basic nutrients needed to grow crops, compared with 40% just a decade ago, study found. African farmers can afford only fraction of fertilizers needed to replenish their increasingly barren fields. Traditionally, farmers cleared land, grew crops for a few harvests, then let fields lie fallow for 10 or 15 years to rejuvenate as they moved on to clear more land... But as they try to feed rapidly growing population, farmers instead grow crop after crop, sapping soil's fertility.'Topsoil is blown away by wind and washed away by rains' , said president International Fertilizer Development Center, nonprofit agricultural aid organization which produced study. If this process continues unabated, crop yields in Africa will fall as much as 30% in next 15 years, even as region'spopulation continues to grow rapidly... Africa... likely to face more frequent famines and become evermore dependent on food aid/imports. Farmers... increasingly clearing forests as well as savannas...Already, farmland in Africa yields less than a third amount of grain of that in Asia and Latin America... 'Wemust feed our soils' , said Nigeria's president... Jun meeting on Africa's fertilizer needs expected to drawleading experts... as well as donors. Foreign aid aimed at improving agricultural productivity in Africadeclined sharply in 1990's and has begun to recover only in recent years. About two-thirds of Africa's750m people depend on agriculture for income/employment. Fertilizer... far too expensive for Africa's small and often impoverished farmers - costs two to six times world average. African farmers use less than 10% as much as Asian farmers do. Lowering price no simple task... Roads make transportation difficult/costly... Green revolution to Africa would require: functioning road network/credit for farmers/ extension agents to teach new methods/ better irrigation/ retailers to sell fertilizers/ improved seed varieties... Would also mean combating corruption". Wealthiest countries have pledged to increase aid to Africa.

Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and broad publications being written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The widely-known author of this book, however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly, even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a number of the great powers, climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats' to its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant probability of wars, including even nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover). The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible and worrisome scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in a region suffering from the experience of climate change. The other is the author's carefully quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008 personal interviews.

Gregg Easterbrook A Moment on the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism(New York: Penguin 95):- environmentalist concerned with rate of population growth etc. nevertheless argues: those who overstate likelihood, scale or imminence of eco-disaster will ultimately hurt their own case. For somewhat tongue-in-cheek argument that doom scenarios come in predictable cycles, plus Simon/Club of Rome debate(Meadows op.cit.)see "Environmental Scares" The Economist 20 Dec 97(19-21).For later/more objective books on history of man's effect on environment, and related US political developmentsrespectively, favourable Reviews in Economist 18 Nov 00 "The Environment: Earth Shattering" (101-2).Books: John R. McNeill Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World(New York: Norton 00);Philip Shabecoff Earth Rising: American Environmentalism in the 21st Century(New York: Island Press 00).Both expect major eco-activity now.

Erik Eckholm, "Environment Conference Agrees to Help Poor Nations Protect Ozone" New York Times 4 Dec 99:-129-country UN environmental conference in Beijing has agreed that additional $440 million will be provided over next three years to help poor countries stop producing/using chemicals that harm ozone layer. 1987 Montreal Protocol aims at eliminating all ozone-depleting substances, especially chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs), that thin protective atmospheric layer of ozone that blocks harmful ultra-violet rays.Developed countries have almost completely converted to CFC replacements for use in air-conditioners/ refrigerators, but poor countries(Brazil, China, India)were given until 2010 to stop their production/use and had already received $1 billion to cover costs. Although world use of major ozone-destroyers has now declined by 85%, ozone holes/thinning continue to grow due to slow atmospheric effects.

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

The Economist 14 Mar 98"Moonrakers: Who Own the Moon?"(71):-discovery of water on moon makes its exploitation much more feasible, and revives the issue of ownership. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty states moon belongs to all mankind, but is legally vague. An attempt in 1979 to draft a Moon Agreement using the same approach as the LOS seabed principles failed. Commercial options are already under study in the US.

The Economist 04 Apr 98"Squeezing Water from the Sea"(85-6):-conflict over the ever-shrinking per capita supply of usable water is widely seen as a major evolving global issue(see Annan). This item describes the status and costs of two major current means of desalinization. Distillation heats salty water and catches condensed water vapour; distilled water costs about $1/cubic metre. Reverse osmosis forces salty water through a composite membrane, holding back salt, etc.; the product costs about $.6/cubic metre. Conservationis even cheaper: see issue of 25 Mar 00.

The Economist 18 Apr 98:-an editorial and two articles all dealing constructively with the economics of environmental problems:"Cleaner Energy: It is Political Poison, but a Carbon Tax Still Makes Sense"(17):-to make carbon taxes acceptable, balance them with tax cuts; "When Virtue Pays a Premium: Renewable Energy Has Long Been the Fuel of the Future. Could It Be That the Future Is At Last About to Happen?"(57-8):- even without carbon tax or subsidies renewable energy is becoming competitive; "An Invaluable Environment: Statisticians Are Trying to Adjust Measures of National Wealth for Pollution and Depleted Resources. This Turns Out to Be All But Impossible"(75)-assigning GDP value to eco-costs and assets is rough and selective.

The Economist 09 May 98"The Season of El Nino"(35-8):-general survey of multiple effects, probably of 1997-8 El Nino, over whole of Latin America. They have included disastrous droughts and fires, storms and floods, throughout the entire area from Mexico to Patagonia. These have had a permanent economic, health and political impact.

The Economist 30 May 98"Biotech's Secret Garden"(75-7):-survey of several current advances in developing new drugs from natural substances. This is a major subject of discussion in UN environment debates due to the ownership issues it raises. The article also reports new skills in plant biotesting. 20 Feb 99: "Ethnobotany: Shaman Loses Its Magic" (77): - the article reports that "Shaman Pharmaceuticals, the leading proponent of the `ethnobotanical'approach to drug discovery - an attempt to identify the active molecules in folk remedies, in order to turn them into modern prescription medicines - threw in the towel." Shaman, Merck, other companies, and even the US government, while carefully following the rules of the Convention on Biological Diversity all over the world, but particularly in rainforests, have found little or nothing of value. Meanwhile the normal molecular screening process has become so advanced that "it will soon be possible to check molecules for promising biological activity at a rate of 100,000 a day" , so screening everything is now faster and cheaper than seeking shortcuts from folk healers.

The Economist 13 Jun 98"In Defence of the Demon Seed: Genetically Modified Foods"(13-4):- editorial results from EU objections to import of genetically engineered plants from North America, but has global implications. It supports imports as being no different from products of traditional plant-breeding, but recommends more scientific and educational information. "Food Fights" (79-80) describes the actual process involved, widespread with some US crops. Relatively simple, it offers significant yield and viability gains - thus critical for LDCs. 20 Feb 99: - "Frankenstein Foods" (17) Editorial again argues, following an uproar in the British press, that "Genetically modified foods can deliver great benefits. It would be wrong to slow their development." "Seeds of Discontent" and "Genetically Modified Free Trade" (75-6) report on the scientific, media and trade debates, and argue that concerns over safety are misplaced; the beneficiaries are the patent-holders, farmers, and the environment.

The Economist 27 Jun 98"Taiga! Taiga! Burning Bright"(83-5):-while more attention is paid to preserving the world's tropical rainforests, this article notes the equal importance of northern conifers. Using Russia (which has the world's largest total forested area) as example, its coniferous "taiga" and neighbouring broad-leafed forests help to regulate the climate by acting as "sinks" for carbon dioxide, storing 500m tonnes of carbon a year. More by luck than good management, major taiga exploitation is only now beginning, so the North American conservation experience (e.g. long-term leases) should be promoted.

The Economist 11 Jul 98"Absurdly Green"(15) and "Energy Policy: A Nuclear Waste"(64-5)- Swedes voted in 1980 to phase out all nuclear power gradually, but the government now plans to shut down two reactors well before the end of their working lives. These essays argue that: the plants are hugely expensive to build or demolish, but extremely cheap to run, so closing them is very bad economics; renewable energy can replace only a fraction of the lost power, which will have to be made up by coal or gas, thus producing much greenhouse gas; the volume of radioactive waste will be little affected; the reactors are very safe, unlike former Soviet reactors, from whom Nordics may now have to demand more power. The best safety investment for the Swedes is to improve these.

The Economist 06 Mar 99"Drowning in Oil"(19) and "Cheap Oil: The Next Shock?"(23-5):-editorial and a major essay on the prospects and implications of oil remaining cheaper in real terms than in 1973 (the first OPEC oil shock). On the basis of normal long-term commodity price trends and lower production costs, the price will probably stay low (currently $10 a barrel ). The reason is that since OPEC forced prices up, and kept them high by limiting production, higher-cost fields outside the Middle East became economic. Now domestic budget pressure on Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, may make them ignore unworkable quotas totally and produce whatever they can sell. This could drive prices as low as $5 a barrel and make some other fields uneconomic. While unlikely to raise global demand greatly (owing to concern over CO2, more natural gas use, and new energy-saving techniques), it would increase world dependence on an unstable region.

The Economist: 13 Mar 99"The Caspian's Black Holes"(78):-reports that "no significant new oil reserves have been found offshore in Azerjaiban since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and now some of the [oil] consortia...are...going home" . It would have global strategic and economic impact if theCaspian basin turns out not to be a massive new field. In any event, in the 17 Apr 99 issue"The Caucasus: By-Passing Russia"(55-6) reports that a new oil pipeline and rail route have just been opened joining Baku, Azerbaijan, on the Caspian Sea to twin Georgian ports on the Black Sea coast. From thereproducts can be carried directly to Ukraine (Odessa), Romania (Constantia), or via the Bosporus to theMediterranean. The main significance is that both Russia and Iran are avoided and the routes are direct and shorter, so strategically/economically advantageous. They may also raise Western influence in the area. For inter alia a good geopolitical account of this current variation on "Great Game", see Robert M.Cutler, "Cooperative Energy Security in the Caspian Region: A New Paradigm for Sustainable Development?"Global Governance Vol.5/No.2(Apr-Jun 1999). He even has a win-win solution. Economist 10 Jul 99"Of Politics and Pipelines"(54):-on a 700 billion cubic meter gas find in Azerbaijan, which again upsets local geopolitics. A US-supported gas line across the Caspian from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean is already planned, avoiding Russia completely. If for once all governments can cooperate, this line could also carry the Azerbaijani gas, and further increase Western influence. Russia meanwhile plans a Russia-Turkey Black Sea gas line, the world's deepest under-sea line.

The Economist 27 Mar 99"OPEC: Still Kicking?"(63-4):-analytical essay predicts likely failure of a new accord among 12 large oil producers, including several outside OPEC, to cut their output by 2.1mbd over the next year. Some argue this agreement should be taken seriously because, unlike many short-lived OPEC ministers' deals, it was a treaty among heads of state. Oil prices have already risen. Yet most oil producers' urgent need for increased incomes, the 12's disparate membership (e.g. Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Norway), delayed-marketing options, the irresponsibility of Iraq and Iran, and the desperate straits of Russia and Nigeria, all create an overwhelming probability of non-compliance. The Saudis may be unable to hold the line again.

The Economist 23 Apr 99 "Fuel Cells Hit the Road" (77-8):-carefully-worded article reports on significant advances in emission-free vehicle motors." A fuel cell works by chemically combining hydrogen with oxygen from the air. The result is energy in the form of moving electrons, which is used to power an electric motor; and water, the fuel cell's principal waste product" .Electric motor runs vehicle which effectively produces no pollution - and California requires 10% "zero-emission vehicles" by 2004. Hencefuel-cell cars by Daimler-Chrysler, Ford and Ballard Power Systems(" Canadian firm that has been developing fuel cells for use in vehicles for several years" )demonstrated to California government, and 45 of their cars and buses will be road-tested for four years mainly in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Toyota andGeneral Motors just signed pact to develop modern "alternatives" including vehicles powered by fuel cells. Also, since hydrogen is an explosive gas" with a ridiculously low boiling point" , oil companies Shell, Texaco and Arco producing petrol-less methanol to enable hydrogen to be made "'on the fly'...and it is thischemical...put in[gas]tanks" and available at selected gas stations. Active participants have several other problems to solve. For instance, fuel cells need to start more rapidly in cold weather, and widespreadownership will require efficient infrastructure. Ballard's design" is a polymer membrane coated on either side with platinum electrodes(the platinum also acts as a catalyst). On one side of the membrane, hydrogenis decomposed into its constituent electrons and protons. The electrons disappear into the electrode, while the protons pass through the membrane. On the other side the electrons return via the second electrode, having passed through the coils of an electric motor that drives the wheels of the car. Here, they recombinewith the protons, and also oxygen atoms, to make water" . Explains high cost of building fuel cell engine now and need to lower it. Cost cases described.

The Economist 01 May 99"Sticky Labels"(Genetically Modified Organisms - GMOs)(75-6): - this subject (The Economist 13 Jun 98 op. cit. has previous articles) became a global UN issue when the WTO decided to use Codex Alimentarius standards in international disputes over food trade. Codex was established by the FAO and WHO to recommend minimum global standards on food safety. The EU ban on imports ofUS hormone-treated beef defies Codex's scientific assessment that it is safe; hence the WTO rules it anillegal trade barrier. The EU riposte is a proposal for mandatory labelling of any food containing GMOs "simply to provide choice" . However, repeated and effective testing/segregation could add 30% to costs,hardly any processed food now is 100% GMO-free, and new GMOs offer major human health benefits, so a "fix" is yet possible. For a report on the scientific debate on hormone-treated meat, see The Economist15 May 99(94).

The Economist 08 May 99"Come Together, If You Can"(48):-summarizes report by UN Development Programentitled "Global Public Goods" (Oxford Univ. Press 99)urging greater global information exchange, particularly for benefit of poor who suffer most for lack of it in information society. Proposal is to systematically record common problems and solutions, and to assess every nation's total exports, including ideas/patents/pollution/diseases/crime/other `externalities' so that "fuller picture could...be drawn of inequality/depletion of natural resources/financial instabilities/other threats to development" . "Knowledge bank" could then be set up to give poor states better access to new ideas and technology, assist policymakers, and promote international cooperation, e.g. for law enforcement. Compiling information clearly in global interest, and(computer)distribution costs are small.

The Economist "Letters" 15 May 99: "Fuelling the Argument" (6):-contains response from Vlado Bevc of San Ramon, California to 24 Apr article(op.cit.). He contends that producing hydrogen "takes substantially more energy than one can get back by burning it. Energy required, if production is to be at significant level can come only from fossil fuels needed for electric-power generation(clean sources of electric energy[presumably not including nuclear]are insignificant) or from reformating hydrogen from hydrocarbons. In either case, process results in as much if not more carbon dioxide than would be produced by using internal-combustion engines in first place." In "Re Fuelling" 29 May "Letters" , Amory Lovins of Rocky Mountain Institute, Colorado,argues that while turning water into hydrogen takes more energy than turning hydrogen back into water, Bevccompares hydrogen's energy content with that of fossil fuels as if it would simply be burnt. In fact, fuel cells "can turn hydrogen into car motion about four times as efficiently as normal car engine, or into electricity twice as efficiently as a classical power station and grid...yield[ing]major savings in fuel, climate risk...money[and]conventional pollution" (6).

The Economist 29 May 99 "Energy: the New Convergence" (59-60):-describes how oil companies are moving into natural gas and electricity distribution/sales. Move reflects high expected demand growth for gas(2+%/year or double that for oil) driven mainly by rising use for power generation(75% of new US capacity, and 40% of all European generation by 2010)in turn reflecting its low carbon emissions(Kyoto Accord).Deregulation of gas and/or power sectors in 70 countries, allows/encourages formation of "global energy firms" (Texaco)and "total energy management (Shell). Overall effect: change very nature of vitally importantenergy business. [Combined with new developments in low-emission vehicle engines(see Economist 24 Apr, 15 May and Lugar, all op.cit.), it might help reduce "oil interests" opposition to higher North American gasoline prices, aimed at reducing carbon pollution.]

The Economist 19 Jun 99"Genetically Modified Food: Who's Afraid?"(15-6) and"Food for Thought"(19-21):-"GM" has become such a farm/consumer/trade issue(see 1 May), not only in Europe but also for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Mexico and US, that it merits both an editorial and essay. "The consumer backlash threatens to undermine both this new technology and the credibility of the agencies that regulate it" (15). The view among many Europeans is that GM products are "unnatural" , dangerous, and bad for the environment. In fact, all crops have been "unnatural" for millennia, "it is difficult to conceive of any way in which human health might be damaged" (19) by GM food and, though tests are underway, GM seems to have net environmental advantages. Since much of the US grain crop is now GM, sorting it for the European market would be difficult and expensive. Better trans-Atlantic cooperation and public information are in order.

The Economist 03 Jul 99"The Future of Science: Paved with Good Intentions"(71):-blistering critiqueof a UNESCO/ICSU World Conference on Science in Budapest entitled "Science for the 21st Century: A New Commitment" . The writer found the general approach out of touch with reality in the deliberate and officialexclusion of clinical medicine and engineering in order to keep the science "pure" [but more likely to avoid turf-wars with WHO and UNIDO] and the effective avoidance of information technology and biotechnology - particularly in agriculture [FAO turf?]. More critical was the virtual absence of speakers or information from the private sector, considering that science-based industrial firms fund about 60% of all research. Finally speakers "failed to connect with the theme of how science might tackle the pressing problems [stressed:] poverty, ill-health...environmental degradation and the waste of potential due to discrimination against women".

The Economist 17 Jul 99"Indoor Pollution"(77):-according to growing evidence, and contrary to the priority of outdoor air pollution controls, levels are usually higher indoors than out, including in heavily-polluted urban areas. Respiratory deaths among Third World infants are shocking. Even in the rich countries,hazardous gases, particulate matter and chemical pollutants are spread indoors by baths, showers, dishwashers and washing machines -installed to clean! Reason: most public water supplies contain very low concentrations of toxic chemicals left over from otherwise beneficial chlorination. Heating, spraying and splashing of water in use releases the chemicals into the air ( "stripping" ). Gas stoves and candles, meanwhile, produce carbon monoxide and particulate concentrations as high as those in heavy traffic. New cars, attached garages, laser printers, computers, carpets and paints are also noxious. Priorities may need adjusting.

The Economist 24 Jul 99 "Stepping on the Gas" (Edit: 19-20) "Fuel Cells Meet Big Business/How a Fuel Cell Works" (59-60):-items stress/explain rapid progress in developing commercially viable fuel cells(previous material: 24 Apr 99). Main article claims: "dramatic shift in thinking of big business" ;$1.5 billion will have been spent on fuel cell R&D by next year; and costs have already fallen so sharply car makers believe mass production will help them close fuel cell/internal-combustion price gap to meet California's 2004 deadline for 10% no-emissions car sales. Power-generation companies hope to be well-established by then, with fuel cells soon competitive with alternatives, from coal to gas-fired, possibly reaching $5 billion a year globallyin power generation equipment in decade. Editorial urges: (1)end hydrocarbon fuel subsidies;(2)deregulate energy; (3)common platforms for technology/infrastructure(UN?). "Poor countries have the most to gain from this efficient, flexible and(eventually)cheap technology".

The Economist 21 Aug 99Water Supply:"Pass the Salt"(Desalinization)(23);"Cloudbusting" (Rain-Making)(69-70); "An Ice Idea" (Storage)(70):-all relate to scientific-technical developments with major implications for expected world-wide fresh water shortages(see Annan). The first describes a "reverse-osmosis" desalinization plant being built in conjunction with a power station, "which will provide the cheapest drinking water ever extracted from the sea" : 25m gallons a day at a wholesale cost of $2.08 per 1000 gallons for 30 years, i.e. competitive with other sources. The second article reports on a new method of cloud-seeding. Now completing thorough (double-blind), encouraging tests, "hygroscopic-flare" seeding uses salts as strongly water-affinitive nuclei to form raindrops. The last foresees artificial ice mountains, created cheaply by modified "snow machines" at below-freezing, water-abundant times/places, and tapped/shipped as/where needed.

The Economist 04 Sep 99"Silent Sting: Banning DDT"(25):-Editorial addresses the terrible dilemma ofwhether to ban DDT globally because of its proven dangerous effects on humans and wildlife (cancer, endocrine disruption, other ills), or to allow its continued use against malaria in many poor countries. UN Environment Program is coordinating negotiations for a new international treaty to curb the use of 12 of the worst pollutants, including DDT and dioxins used as pesticides but which are also persistent organic pollutants. Health officials, however, argue a worldwide DDT ban "would condemn millions to misery or death from a preventable illness" since "the only effective defence many have against [malaria] is to spray DDT inside their homes". Economist proposes delaying a total ban until malaria is beaten; meanwhile banning DDT use outside the home (notably in farming); funding new malaria vaccines, therapeutic drugs, and alternative pesticides.

The Economist 11 Sep 99"Nuclear Power: Running on Empty"(87):-two major issues still facing nuclear power are its economic competitiveness with other power sources, and storage of its radioactive wastes. A new method of generating energy from nuclear waste may ease both problems. A Maryland U. scientist has developed a nuclear-powered turbo-reciprocating engine (NPTRE) which runs on the "spent" fuel rodsfrom conventional reactors. Now, after 1-2 years generating electricity, fuel rods are put in storage, having used up enough of their uranium-235 that they can no longer sustain a heat-producing chain reaction, by being hit by neutrons. They are then replaced by new rods. But (spent) fuel rods contain uranium-238 too, which also produces heat (although not a chain reaction)when hit by neutrons. So spent rods are moved near new rods-and their neutron bursts- in a reactor. The U-238 then doubles heat production -and lasts 10-14 years.

The Economist 11 Sep 99"Biodegradeable Materials: Fantastic Plastic" (87-8):-one of hardest pollution challenges to meet has been the great versatility, toughness, safety, and resilience of plastic, and the (resulting) fact that it is so durable some could last for thousands of years. Scientists at Cargill Dow Polymers now believe they have developed a truly biodegradeable plastic. Moreover, since it is derived from maize(corn) or beets instead of petrochemicals, the raw materials are renewable and could be grown in virtually any country. The plastic can be broken down in a composting centre anywhere, leaving nothing more than water and carbon dioxide. Produced through a new, highly efficient method based on polylactides(PLA) polymers, the plastic "can be used to make anything from clothing fibres to clear films and food containers". Company also claims production is very energy-saving and already financially competitive.

The Economist 09 Oct 99"Why Greens Should Love Trade"(17-8);" Embracing Greenery: WTO and the Environment"(89-90);Sam Howe Verhovek"For Seattle, Triumph and Protest"New York Times 13 Oct 99:-peace-making Editorial, historical/optimistic article, and longer NYT report on politics/confrontations, together provide a good picture of the environmental issues that influence the WTO's agenda-setting meeting. The Editorial argues that, by creating wealthier societies that care more about the environment, trade can be the best way to improve it. In the meantime, laxer standards in poor countries are a fair competitive advantage, and no importer may discriminate against those with productionmethods not up to its own standards. Anyway, pollution abatement costs competitors very little, andgoods can be specially labelled. Global/trans-border problems should be tackled/paid for through a strong World Environment Organization(WEO) not the WTO. article -and the WWF- praise a new WTO report on environmental concerns, which (unlike GATT) concedes trade can harm the environment, and implies this could be put on the trade agenda in Seattle. The most promising areas for global action are the elimination of environmentally damaging subsidies for farming, fishing and fossil fuels, the labelling of (clearly) eco-friendly products, and making WTO more transparent, accountable and accessible to eco-groups. A WEO is clearly preferred to trade sanctions for Kyoto-like treaties. NYT reports on plans by 300 groups for mass demonstrations at Seattle, many by eco-groups, and most claiming the WTO is business-dominated and undermining national laws.

The Economist 09 Oct 99"Fertility Rights: Terminator Genes"(104):-biotechnology in general, and agri-biotech firms in particular, have recently become ethical, commercial and scientific subjects of debate [Horaises inter alia the subject of this item; but see also Conway, Economist 13 Jun 98, 1 May/19 Jun 99, Maddox, Morton(all op.cit.)]. Control of plant reproduction has research value, by enabling only selected plants to be re-fertilized, but article reports that Monsanto, in face of worldwide criticism, "promised not to commercialise (sic)the genetic engineering of seed sterility" . This is significant, as many suspect its motive in developing sterile seeds was to force farmers -including poor Third World peasants- to buy (very costly) new seed annually. With Monsanto's action, and the creation by multilateral institutes and multinationals of a related research consortium, poor farmers -desperate to raise productivity to fight malnutrition- seem safer.

The Economist 30 Oct 99"Emissions: Seeing Green" (73):- reports how various businesses now reacting more positively to planned Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas emission taxes. BP Amoco and Royal Dutch/Shell now admit "global warming is real and merits immediate action" . Utilities are trying to reduce power plant pollution; Dupont is voluntarily cutting emissions of greenhouse gases to 35% of their 1990 level in a decade. Examples of current use of transferable emission credits are given. Obtaining these will be of major value to heavy-industrial and energy firms for cutting their pollution taxes; BP Amoco is trading credits among its international divisions. Those able easily to reduce CO2/methane emissions and so generate credits include agribusinesses and forestry firms, while reinsurance companies can securitise emission-trading permits. "Carbon trading" could be BIG business; some predict a trillion-dollar global industry.

The Economist 04 Dec 99 "Honda: Stack of Trouble" (64-5):-report on recent events in global race to produce first economic fuel-cell powered vehicle and how related costs are forcing industry consolidation. Described are developments at Honda, whose forte has always been car propulsion. It has designed engine, its "version of a fuel-cell stack, soul of machine that within 20 years may replace internal-combustion engine with hydrogen-powered electric motors" .But this model seems below standards reached by leading combination of Ballard Power Systems-DaimlerChrysler-Ford, or even by their rivals, General Motors-Toyota(Economist 24 Apr, 24 Jul 99, Koppel op.cit.). Honda has also installed(sealed)Ballard fuel cell in prototype electric car, made very-low-emission direct-injection and diesel engines, and launched first hybrid petrol-electric car, but may have to merge owing to high cost.

The Economist 11 Dec 99 "Space-Age Soot" (73-4):-related to preceding, reports a probable solution to the challenge of safe, efficient and compact storage of hydrogen in fuel-cell vehicles. Since it is a flammable gas at room temperature, options have included compressing or liquefying, or storing it chemically as methanol or cleaner gasoline. Most effective storage medium, however, appears to be in carbon structures. Unusual types of molecular carbon form structures known as nanotubes or nanofibres, which absorb hydrogen wellat room temperature. Soot-like grains having "sponged-up" hydrogen could be put into hydrogen cartridgeswould be sold and replaced at filling stations. Researcher reports synthesizing nanofibres capable ofstoring 65% of own weight of hydrogen(6.5% or range of 500km would make idea practical). Other scientists are sceptical, but several claims of over 10% have been made.

The Economist 11 Dec 99 "The Non-Governmental Order: Citizens' Groups" (20-1):-how and why "citizens' groups" (NGOs) are increasingly powerful at corporate, national, international level, and whether representmove towards "international civil society" or "dangerous shift of power to unelected and unaccountablespecial-interest groups" . Their growth was enabled by: communism's fall; democracy's spread; technological change; economic integration. Reflects concern over: environment; labour-human-consumer rights; poverty; jobs; etc. Rapid, mass news dispensing or joint action are promoted by: democratisation; technology.Number: international NGOs: 26,000; national NGOs: US - 2m; India - 1m; East Europe - 0.1m. Membershipin one NGO can exceed .5m. Roles: deliver services(NGOs dispense more aid than UN system); others stressadvocacy. "Technical groups" specialize providing expert analysis/ information and assist planners, decision-makers, negotiators, advocates at all levels. Governments can be helped, manipulated or blocked; some international organizations/corporations can co-opt such NGOs(World Bank); others may fail(controversial IOs and MNCs).

The Economist 18 Dec 99 "South Seas Piracy: Dead Men Tell No Tales" (87-9):-survey of state/techniques of world maritime piracy, concentrated mainly in South-East Asia. Article reports that pirate attacks, usually against large ships, have doubled during 1990s, to 200 a year. Last year, 67 crew members were killed, 66 in Asian waters where nearly three-quarters of all world's attacks take place. In their more mundane form, ad hoc gangs in speedboats board ships for minor theft(mooring ropes; petty cash). Since gangs are willing to kill with guns or machetes, most crews carry no weapons and are under strict instructions to follow pirates' orders. New sophisticated threat is hijacking of ships and cargos by international crime syndicates, with hints of official collusion. Ship names and papers are changed easily, as is cargo "ownership" . UN International Maritime Organization and shipping companies are working onlegal/technical counter-measures. For updates see Economist 21 Jul 01 and 12 Jun 04(op.cit.).

The Economist 22 Jan 00"Greenhouse Gases: Cost Free"; "The Rise of the[Carbon]Sink"(64-5) :-both articles report on economic developments relating to the general emissions trading provisions in Kyoto Protocol to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Grubb op.cit.). While detailedimplementation and final agreement should be completed in November 2000, the World Bank has already launched a Prototype Carbon Fund to help set a cost for carbon emissions and so to encourage firms to invest in cutting them. A small greenhouse gas emissions market has already developed, and the PCF should spur it by investing in green technologies such as renewable energy in poor countries. Resulting reductions in emissions will be credited to the Fund's investors. The higher the price of carbon, the more interest in investing. The other article reports that many investors in agriculture and forestry hope for a high carbon price since trees and plants consuming CO2 is the only known practical way to draw large volumes of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. [Tropical] forests and farms are thus carbon "sinks" , which could be cultivated to generate valuable - and tradable - emission credits.

The Economist 22 Jan 00"Nuclear Waste: A Torch Song" (81):-probably the biggest political, environmental and cost problem with nuclear fission power (and disposal of nuclear weapons) has been how to handle the radioactive nuclear waste, particularly thousands of tonnes of spent fuel and other radioactive by-products. Luckily, thus-far-unsuccessful attempts to generate energy-economical non-radioactive fusion power has left a number of moth-balled experimental reactors, all designed to produce gas heated to about 10m degrees C, known as plasma. Dr. Bernard Eastlund proposes that plasma be again produced in old reactors and mixed with nuclear waste. This would instantly produce a "soup" of electrons and nuclei. Theelements/ compounds in the soup could then be "sorted" using the different temperatures at which they become solids. Such residue is not radioactive and less in quantity/cost than that from planned chemical reprocessing.

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "Hybrid Vigour?" (94-5) :-this article reports on the latest development in the battle to produce economic and environmentally-friendly vehicles. The Detroit motor show saw the introduction by General Motors of the "Precept" , and by Ford of the" Prodigy" , their new fuel-efficient supercars. The first products of a six-year $240m-annual-budget US Government program called Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, they achieve the equivalent of 80mpg(35km/litre) of gas. Their fuel-efficiency is the result of new light technology and a "hybrid power pack" consisting of a combination of electric and diesel motors to deliver energy more efficiently and recycle as much of it as possible. Unfortunately, and in spite of the huge investment of tax money, they cost thousands extra, but save little money in use. Above all, the writer expects them to be" obsolete within a decade" . "The future almost certainly belongs to the fuel-cell" .

The Economist 26 Feb 00 "Russia's Nuclear Industry: The Time-Bombs of Tomsk" (29-34):-factual information about Russian nuclear industry explains both US concern and largesse. Above all, convincing case that decrepit state of industry "threatens whole world" . "Plutonium-producing reactors[at Tomsk]present most immediate problem. All...plants...at least 40 years old. Two[working]reactors aregraphite-moderated and water-cooled, precursors(sic)of design used at Chernobyl. Enormous stacks of[swelling/cracking]graphite blocks surround vertical rods containing fuel.[N]o containment vessels, no emergency core-cooling systems.[I]f rods or tubes in core begin to buckle, engineers cannot control speed of reaction by withdrawing fuel rods...Closing reactors would help on three fronts. It would reduce Russia's output of plutonium; it would remove danger of serious accident; and it would reduce amount of Russian nuclear waste" .

The Economist 11 Mar 00 "Floods and Their Damage: After the Deluge" (52):-describes global flood disaster threat, and warns of worse to come. Approximately 100,000 people 1999 were killed in natural disasters, highest toll since 1991. Normally half are victims of floods. Moreover in 1998 300m people were affectedby floods, and annually about 3m lose their homes. In future, as population increases, more people live in vulnerable areas, so global flood damage is expected to increase. Already 50% world lives on/near coast -10m(mostly very poor)at constant sea risk. Millions in hillside slums subject to mud-slides; others inovercrowded flood-prone river valleys. Settlement itself increases flood danger through erosion, deforestation, water diversion, damming. Global warming will make half LDCs' population vulnerable to floods/storms. Better safety-measures/aid must be long-lasting.

The Economist 25 Mar 00 "Water: A Soluble Problem" (20); "Nor Any Drop to Drink" (69-70):-both editorial and major essay argue that growing global shortage of fresh water reflects massive and unnecessary waste-which can be eliminated if it is simply priced realistically. Some facts(see also Annan): more thanbillion people have no access to safe water and 3b lack adequate sanitation. This threatens all withdisease and drought. Meanwhile, water tables overused, with many falling by meter or more/year. "[W]orlddemand for fresh water will grow sharply, by 70%(for household use)by 2025. Shortages seem inevitable-and even war" (20). Yet much is wasted: most domestic water use not metered, while subsidies worth billions positively encourage waste in farming/industry. Instead, price water(just)above cost of provision and disposal, aiding only poorest. Private investment($180b a year)will come.

The Economist 01 Apr 00"How Green Is Your Hydrogen?" (74):-draws on report by(Canadian)Pembina Institute. It addresses fact that fuel-cell vehicles need hydrogen, so some sort of energy must be used to produce this basic fuel. Not only do most economic forms of energy generation produce carbon dioxide, but in medium term hydrogen will be stripped from hydrocarbon molecules as found in fossil fuels. This can be done in vehicle by using chemical "reformer" -which releases surplus carbon as carbon dioxide. So report calculated total "well-to-wheel" release of greenhouse gases using various fuels (including "clean" gasoline/ methanol). Best was found to be natural gas: it is easy and efficient to reform into hydrogen -and cheap. Volume problems are solved if gas stations have big reformers and sell hydrogen as solid(metal hydride).This uses same space per energy unit as gasoline.

The Economist 08 Apr 00 "Who Owns the Knowledge Economy?" (17); "Patent Wars: Knowledge Monopolies" (75-8):-Editorial/essay address issue already raising serious legal, ethical, R&D, competition, trade and North-South debates - worth billions of dollars. It is accelerating numbers of patents granted in novel/controversial areas, made both possible/immensely valuable by rapid advances in knowledge power they guard(computer software, genetic engineering, Internet business methods). Patents global(in theory),wherever first granted, and recognized international patent system is under creation by World Intellectual Property Organization, WTO - and sheer demand. Patents are both defenses in very competitive world, and fertile/flexible income generators. Yet, while aiming to foster invention by rewarding it, they do not "differentiate between incentives needed to invest in different kinds of technologies. [Henceforth they should respond to]investment that an invention represents[and] come in different shapes and sizes, or system will go on producing absurdities" (17).

The Economist 06 May 00 "Satellite Pictures: Private Eyes in the Sky" (71-3):-plans of companies hoping to sell satellite-produced images with spacial resolution of less than metre(smallest features that can be distinguished) and speculates on their global impact(see also NYT story by W. J. Broad).Such resolution,previously limited to US and Soviet intelligence use, can distinguish cars from trucks, recognize types of aircraft and tanks, and identify buildings for target selection. Firms launching commercial satellites in coming months foresee billion-dollar markets for detail comparable to aerial photography combined withglobal coverage and high-speed delivery. Probable consumers include most government agencies, mineral/oil prospectors, utilities, urban/transport planners, real estate/insurance companies, farmers, fishermen, NGOs. While governments hope to restrict image sales/ coverage, it will prove impossible - and force for verification, stability and hence peace.

The Economist 17 Jun 00 "Patent Law: Going Global" (83):-08 Apr item "Patent Wars..." outlined rapidly-increasing number, complexity and cost of patent-related problems in a high-tech, interdependent world, with instant global communications. This item reports on "significant step towards simple, global system for patent filing" in form of new world patent-law treaty signed at WIPO(UN World Intellectual Property Organization). Inter alia it stipulates "standardized forms that all patent offices must accept, basic standards for electronic submission of patents, and mechanisms to avoid loss of rights due to non-essential formalities or unintentional delays" . Most important, signatories accept nationally any patent filed according to international standard known as PCT(Patent Co-Operation Treaty)and "may pave way for filing single patent according to global standard" . Issues of substance, such as what constitutes "novelty" , will be discussed later this year, but tougher debates such as that between "first to invent" and "first to file" may be left longer. Not surprisingly, China, India and some other LDCs are doubtful. [In light of current North-South problems over high costs of patented drugs and seeds, global formula may be needed so LDCs can get/make critical patented goods cheaply, but not "dump" them elsewhere.]

The Economist 01 Jul 00 "Selling Fuel Cells" (83):-item says General Motors seems to have gainedadvantage in high-stakes race with Ballard-Daimler-Ford to develop economic fuel cell car(Koppel op.cit.). New GM prototype (HydroGen1)is 1/3 size of its predecessor, but produces about 60% more power(thermal efficiency is nearly four times that of best gas-powered vehicles). Engine warms up at -40C in 1/10 time of other fuel cells, and its fuel tank (hydrogen for 600km)is size of ordinary gas tank. Possibly on market by 2004, improvements do not reflect breakthrough but many engineering refinements. "Itlooks increasingly likely that eventual replacement for internal-combustion engine in motor vehicles will be fuel cell.[C]ar makers now investing heavily in[them]" .

The Economist 05 Aug 00 "The Electric Revolution" (Edit: 19-20); "The Dawn of Micropower" (75-7):-arguescoming changes in electricity generation will be as dramatic and profound as those found in world telecommunications industry. Many LDCs may even skip giant-power-station stage and move directly to "micropower" -electricity produced by small-scale fuel cells/gas turbines. Essay discussestrends/techniques which(it contends)will produce world geared to local power generation for local consumption. Three trends stimulate development of small, clean, reliable, cheap generating technology.(1)Global liberalization-deregulation makes local power generation competitive, with potentiallocal markets even for surplus heat.(2)Rising emission standards make new coal-fired plants prohibitive; increase relative advantage of low/no-emission microgenerators.(3)Reliable/uninterrupted power is higherpriority; multiple micro-generators are under owners' control. Venture-capital investment also respondedto potential micropower market($60b/year). Several sorts of micropower generation under development: (1) "Most dramatic breakthroughs taking place in field of fuel cells" .(Sources give details: e.g. hydrogen-handling.) (2)Microturbines, high-speed compressors-cum-rotors that spin to 100,000 rpms, have one moving part, and run on natural gas.(3)Solar Cells costs, still not competitive, coming down - and fuel is free. For global markets, costs of more-developed microgenerators are already competitive in rich worldand, for some purposes/places, in Third World. "Microgrids" , pooling relative strengths of severalmicropower systems, will bring prices even lower and reliability even higher. Three obstacles to remove: distorted taxation; need for global standards; regulation.

The Economist 19 Aug 00 "The Caucasus: Where Worlds Collide" (17-9):-tackles perhaps most ethnically explosive/ politically unruly/economically depressed region in world. It offers non-experts concise picture of "states" in area, whether recognized(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia),self-proclaimed(Abkazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia),aspiring(Ajaria?, Dagestan?, Ingushetia?, Javakheti?, Nakhichevan?, North Ossetia?)or neighbouring(Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey)in terms of their recent clashes/multiple secession/inter-ethnic problems; appalling political/economic conditions, and interests/roles of almost all in others' affairs. Wonderful chart on this. Among major points made: there might be 100b barrels of oil and gas around Caspian; 3000km of international borders in Caucasus of which 9km(sic)truly friendly; "same cocktail of bad government, spite-thy-neighbour and poverty poisons life in[whole]of Caucasus" ; "political and military stalemate disguises economic/social catastrophe" ; since independence2m(50%of population)emigrated from Armenia, 1m(20%)from Georgia, 1.5m(20%)from Azerbaijan; for one of many "solutions" :www.ceps.be.

The Economist 18 Nov 00"Dams: A Barrage of Criticism" (94-6):-reports on the first comprehensive effort to analyse environmental, economic and social impacts of world's 45,000 large dams - the work of The World Commission on Dams involving the World Bank, industry, etc. on 1000 dams over two years. Itconcludes that their overall costs to both man and nature are "mostly negative" ,although every third country uses hydro power for 50+% of electricity and over one-third of irrigated land depends on dams. Their building usually means clearing forests etc.; reservoirs become silted from upstream; rotting vegetation emits CO₂/methane - possibly accounting for 25+% of "global-warming potential" of atmospheric gases. Some alter flood cycles and downstream flows; some pollute rivers, remove nutrients, alter watertemperature - affecting survival of plants, fish and animals, but breeding mosquitos -hence malaria etc. Over $2 trillion has been invested and 80m displaced, though dams often unprofitable, slow to deliver, prone to corruption, distorted in their benefit.

The Economist 09 Dec 00"India's Economy Opens Its Doors: The China Syndrome" (50):-excellent summary of the problems, policies and prospects of the largest really poor economy in the world. AtWTO behest, in Mar India removes its last quantitative import restrictions(mostly consumer/agriculturalgoods)while GDP growth this FY will be almost 6%; reserves almost cover a year's imports; current-account deficit likely below 2% GDP; exports are booming. Yet most feel this is not good enough: China gets 10+ times India's foreign investment and exports 5+ times the merchandise. Indian firms carry six burdens:very high power costs; high interest rates; combined red tape/corruption; high sales and local taxes; slow/expensive transport; and inflexible labour markets. In response, PM has set 8% growth target and recently liberalised India's telecom market," which should speed its emergence as an [IT] power" . But bothmulti-beneficial privatization and road infrastructure building need acceleration. Worse, politics isimpeding essential labour/fiscal/tariff reforms.

The Economist 23 Dec 00 "Shrinking Families: The Empty Nursery" (95-7):-essay on below-replacement fertility rates implies:(1)population decline anywhere would be "worrying" ,presumably since current huge/unprecedented human numbers are "just right" or even too low, but no explanation why; (2)rich countries' population trends/totals can/should be totally divorced from both their unsustainable consumption levels and any concerns about global population growth/consumption levels;(3)large-scale/balancing migration is useless. Extracts:" [Is an]only child pattern of the future? Of all questionsabout our new century, few are as important as this...Too few babies is emerging as bigger worry in many countries...than too many[globally? i.e. how we support global population still growing at 80m/year]...Of 35of world's richest countries, in only three[Iceland, New Zealand, US]are women producing enough babies...to replace existing population.[Trends in US, Europe, China, South Korea.]Motherhood is becoming a mid-life digression[and]postponing childbearing[mainly for educational/career reasons]leads to many more single child families.[L]ong-run trend will surely be for people to have rather fewer children, on average, than replacement of human race requires. As result, 21st century will probably see...humannumbers stop rising and begin to decline...[W]hile environment may gain, society may well lose[not enough pension contributors; kinship a weaker force; old people with no immediate relatives; majority are first-born/only offspring" .In addition, thoughtful theme Editorial on "Tales of Youth and Age" (17-8)relates to notingimplications of aged forming increasing percentage of world's population over course of century. There is also highly relevant/amusing essay in same issue: "Prolonging Life: Who Wants To Live Forever?" (23-4). Partly historical/philosophical, it also offers information and food for thought. Neanderthals lived about20 years; mid-18th century average lifespans were only up to 30. Today's world average life expectancy is 65 years, with those in rich countries 75-80, result of improvements in living conditions, public healthand medical care. Individual lifespans are not huge by historical standards: 122 years is longest documented. Two life-lengthening methods have been successful with animals: semi-starvation (unpopular with humans)and selective breeding(would require centuries/heartache for humans). Genetic manipulation, however, now seems feasible, although ageing process involves many genes. Life would remain an invariably fatal disease, but age researchers claim that if people were able to preserve their maximum health and vigour, they would on average live for about 1,200 years, with about 0.1% lasting for 10,000. Short of instant over-population, world would soon consist of extremely old, and tiny, "dwindling, resentful" group of younger people. [Economist's opposition to lower birth-rates in rich countries was explained later as producing short-/mid-term economic stress in advanced states. Its older populations cannot be supported by relatively smaller numbers of young personnel and not yet handled by obvious longer-term solutions. These include:(a)economic participation/ generation of workers for progressively more years;(b)entire assets needed for pension-funds totally pre-generated/ saved before retirement;(c)less-labor-dependent economies modified by gains in human-progressiveness.]

The Economist 27 Jan 01"A New Environmental Index: Sustainable Growth - Green and Growing" (74-5):-serious global controversies(e.g. Kyoto Protocol)reflect widespread (mis)perception that environmental and economic improvements are incompatible, and present zero-sum alternatives. While in many cases these aims are in fact mutually reinforcing (non-polluting processes often improve efficiency)there has beenno organized attempt to clarify/ quantify overall relationship perhaps because many key terms involved are "woolly" [e.g. "sustainable", "environmental" ," growth" vs" development" ];most environmental data are "poor quality". 2001 Davos World Economic Forum was presented first attempt to meet this need: Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)created by expert team working carefully with available data. It had first made "detailed assessment of dozens of variables that influence environmental health" of 122 national economies(from pollutants to corruption). These then used to select 22 "core indicators" grouped in five broad areas: (1)Environmental Systems: air quality; water quantity & quality; biodiversity [threats]; terrestrial systems [e.g.soil degradation]; (2)Reducing Stresses: reducing air pollution; reducing water & ecosystem stresses; reducing waste and consumption & population pressures; (3)Reducing Human Vulnerability: basic human sustenance; environmental[ly-related] health; (4)Social and Institutional Capacity: science and technology [strength]; capacity for debate; [eco-]regulation and management; private sector [eco-]responsiveness; environmental information; eco-[i.e.energy] efficiency; reducing public choice distortions [gasoline prices, usage subsidies, corruption]; (5)Global Stewardship: international commitment [eco-participation & compliance]; protecting international commons[ e.g. CO₂, SO₂, CFC]; global-scale [eco-]funding & participation. Indicators were quantified for each individual country, making it feasible to rank them in terms of "sustainability" (ES). Among results: Finland(1); Norway(2); Canada(3); Australia(7); US(11); France(13); Germany(15); Britain(16); Japan(22); Brazil(28); Russia(33); Italy(37); South Africa(45); Mexico(73); India(93); China(108); Nigeria(117); Haiti(122). Team's key findings were: (a)ES can be measured; "Index proved to be surprisingly powerful, useful and robust" .(b)ESI created comparative benchmarks of national environmental conditions and possibility of making decisions on more fact-based foundations. (c)Economic conditions affect, but do not determine, environmental conditions; ESI suggests that decisions on how vigorously to pursue ES and economic growth are in fact two separate choices. (d)Serious data gaps limit ability to measure ES. Much of above derived directly from ESI Main Report downloaded (using Adobe Acrobat Reader since it is in PDF format) at: http://www.ciesin. colombia. edu/indicators/ESI.

The Economist 10 Mar 01 "Wind Power: Maybe This Time" (30-1):-optimistic on state of/prospects for wind power (mainly based on US situation). Tax credits for this clean, renewable energy source in 1980-90sproduced little as fossil-fuel efficiency rose/prices dropped. But now California needs more energy fast,natural-gas price soaring, and wind-power technology better. Hence major firms are committed tobuying/generating significant wind power since(even without subsidy)becoming competitive with gas turbines. Big 1.65MW wind turbine now costs about $1.3m(120 times as much power as 1980s predecessor for 20 times cost), takes only months to build(5 years for gas turbines)and 98% reliable. With forests of small, noisy eyesores being replaced by few big, slow turbines spread widely, biggest challenge left is costly and complex problem of energy storage, since wind speed and power demand are unrelated in time and place. For some locations, wind power "no longer looks so silly" .

The Economist 07 Apr 01 "Rage Over Global Warming" (Edit.18); "Global Warming: Is the Kyoto Treaty Dead?" (73-5) :-both make rather unorthodox, point: while politicians, media, environmentalists globally expressed shock and horror when President Bush brusquely announced reversal of US support for Kyoto Protocol, Economist essentially agrees with decision but for different reasons. Bush's one brief rationale: Kyoto's implementation would hurt US economy - tactical error as widely agreed. In fact four criticisms of Kyoto put forward by Administration: (1)uncertainties about science supporting need to take action to prevent/reduce climate change;(2)lack of participation by poor countries;(3)huge economic burdenimposed on US during" energy crisis" ;(4)impossibility of getting ratification by Senate. Essay rebutseach:(1)now effectively consensus among experts that climate change is real, dangerous, and being produced by human action;(2)rich world created problem so should act first to correct it(LDCs are to take on emission targets later);(3)claim US "energy crisis" prevents it from taking action" ; (only bogus crisis is in California, result of botched power deregulation; real cost meeting Kyoto targets unknown but adjustable);(4)Senate votes depend on public opinion/text presented. Essay then argues if Bush/EU really want to tackle climate change, they should admit that current Kyoto targets now impossible for US(and probably some European states/Japan)to meet on scale/date set. Also unnecessarily inflexible:front-loading deep cuts in emissions makes them much more costly. But economists propose "safety valves" (David Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol(Princeton Univ. Press)). Text sets ambitious one-off targets butputs no limit on compliance costs. Yet issue is cumulative:growing stock of greenhouse gases,unrelated to any specific date. Progressive targets ( "bold but measured steps" (Grubb))would reduceeconomic costs substantially. Transferrable emission credits also spread/reduce costs. EU or US could initiate a flexible approach. Economist 28 Apr "Heated Debate" (6)on Letters page contains two important responses to Edit. Michael Grubb(op.cit.), one of world's leading experts on how international community can deal with global warming, stresses(contrary to interpretation)initially mild reductions and deliberate flexibilitywere built into Kyoto Protocol precisely to meet US concerns. Letter from Christopher Bare of Los Angeles argues that improved agreement highly unlikely to be obtained from Bush and adds growing suspicion that in reality Editor shares Bush's "anti-environment sentiment" .

The Economist 19 May 01 "Electricity From Waves: Power Buoys" (78-9):-among renewable energy sources, wave power has fallen behind solar and wind power on basis of apparently uneconomic cost. Now buoy that turns wave energy into electricity has been developed for US Navy that appears economic. It "collects energy using piston that rides up and down with motion of waves. This turns generator, andelectricity produced is stored in battery" .Naval interest was in source of power for recharging small unmanned underwater reconnaissance vehicles, but designers saw commercial potential in larger, more powerful buoys. They developed 20kw version, soon to be group-tested off Australian coast andconnected to local power grid. Large groups of 100kw buoys may form 10-100MW power stations within 2-3 years. Being simple and sturdy, buoys may prove profitable: 3 cents/kW-hour. While power plants costly, fuel is free/available 90% of time, and running cost minimal.

The Economist 19 May 01 "A New Dawn for Nuclear Power?" (Edit.13); "A Renaissance That May Not Come: Special Report - Nuclear Power" (24-6):-responses mainly to Pres. Bush's inclusion of nuclear among power sources he will push to help increase US domestic energy production. As usual, Economist does not share many environmentalists' visceral, and even moral, fear of radiation; it makes careful, qualified, but on balance negative, case regarding nuclear power's viability, based on free market economic considerations. It argues: "concerns about operational safety...do not add up to damning case...Nuclearindustry has learned a lot about running its plants safely...Existing technology is now mature and well-understood. On the whole, [Western]nuclear power plants...are today safe and well-run" (13).But new plants are defended on grounds that they:(1)enhance energy security by reducing dependence on[Mideast]fossil fuels;(2)reduce output of greenhouse gases;(3)exploit improved nuclear power economics. Reaction:(1)nuclear power displaces mostly coal and gas - more plentiful/diversified than oil;(2)nuclear power is expensive way to cut greenhouse gases and creates other problems(waste disposal; theft dangers);carbon tax plus elimination of energy subsidies would be best route;(3)claims of greatly improved nuclear economics are dubious(this examined carefully)and "hefty" subsidies still exist. If private sectorcan build competitive new plants without subsidies, "more power to it" .Believe this is unlikely. Economist09 Jun "Fact or Fission" (Letters16):-constructive comments on 19 May Essay. P.H.Spare, Davenham,Cheshire sees nuclear power as necessary and cheap insurance, either to ensure vital energy supplies in event of Middle East disruption or progressively help replace oil/gas as they become exhausted. Jan Bloemraad, Toronto warns that if resource-deprived countries were to abandon nuclear energy, both oil and gas demand for power generation would rapidly increase and US would suffer just the same. John Stevenson, Cleveland decries negative bias, e.g. in chart, which shows massive growth in wind- and solar-power use(vastly more than in nuclear power)but fails to mention that (heavily subsidized)formeraccount for less than 1% of world electricity consumption, while nuclear power accounts for over 20%.David Alexander, Zeist, Netherlands contends nuclear power industry is not "good, proper and socially responsible" business unless:(1)it is run profitably, efficiently and ethically;(2)it delivers products or services that meet real needs without damaging human health, well-being or environment; and(3)it receives no government largesse in any form, however covert.[Does/could any business or industry meet all criteria?] For concurrent analysis of economics of nuclear power in US, see Matthew L. Wald "Handicapping Reactors by the Numbers" New York Times 19 Jun 01. Article reports that, whatever Bush administration may hope for future of nuclear energy, industry experts argue that recovery from its 30-year drought in US will depend upon three key numbers:(1)In order for reactors to compete, price of natural gas would have to stick at $4 or 5 per million BTUs(it is currently about $4, but has exceeded $5).However if price stayed at $5 for long, more could come into production both in North America and abroad, and price would drop.(2)USNuclear Energy Institute believes competitive reactors would have to sell for no more than $1,000/kilowatt of generating capacity. That is much more than natural gas plants($5-600/kilowatt) but running costs of reactors is low because uranium is cheap. Major efforts also being made to reduce reactor costs, including through economies of scale, higher efficiency, and reduced construction cost.(3)Locus for storing 77,000 tons of radioactive waste must be settled. Yucca Mountain(90m from Las Vegas)not yet agreed upon as suitable long-term repository. All arithmetic is soluble but finding successful solutions is far from guaranteed.

The Economist 21 Jul 01 "Piracy in Asia: Dangerous Waters" (35-6):-report on escalating problem of piracy at sea builds on 18 Dec 99 and leads to 12 Jun 04 articles(op.cit.),and includes map of Southeast Asia with locations of pirate attacks in 2000. ICC International Maritime Bureau(IMB)reported 460+ worldwide - 56% increase on 1999. UN International Maritime Organization(IMO), moreover, suspects half incidents gounreported. While most involve" petty theft by unemployed fishermen and opportunistic criminals" , they range up to highly-organized, gang-operated hijacking. Favourite "pirate zones" remain Indonesia's extensive waters(119 incidents)and narrow Malacca Strait (75)between Sumatra and Malaysia/Singapore, one of world's busiest" choke-points" transited by 200+ ships daily. IMB blames recent increases in piracyon Indonesian situation, but "legal loopholes are also to blame" . As most Asian states' laws on piracy are now inadequate, model national piracy law is being drafted. Jurisdictional limits present other problems: few Asian states have ratified IMO convention providing legal framework to chase, prosecute and extradite pirates. Still, regional cooperation is expanding. IMO foresees common code of practice to investigate high-seas crimes while IMB now monitors ship movements and coordinates cross-border chases.

The Economist 24 Apr 04 "Climate Change: Plumbing the Depths" (83):- "Fears that global warming is causing sea levels to rise are one of the main concerns about climate change. But...little was known about trends in sea level [prior to 19th century]. Now [a university team] may have changed all that...Caesarea, a coastal settlement...south of Haifa, was built...around 15BC [and] enjoyed a period of nearly 1,300 years of continuous occupation.[Digging has] uncovered more than 60 wells that would have [been built/]provided fresh water for its inhabitants throughout the period. [The] team found a good correspondence between the well-water level and the Mediterranean's level...The results indicate that the sea level has remained reasonably constant over the past 2,000 years...Data from the Caesarean wells show that...therise in sea level detected in the 20th century is a recent phenomenon.[It] suggests that the oceans are now encroaching on to the land at a pace not seen since the end of the last ice age...Ancient plumbing warns that all is not well with rising sea levels." This summit of the article leaves out much detail, and hence can be misguiding. It does however include key points. Last quoted sentence is introductory clause.

The Economist 01 May 04 "The Oil Wars: In the Pipeline" (41-2):-development of oil and gas supplies outside the Middle East is an action priority. Russian and nearby Caucasian potential are generatingattention from concerned buyers. This article focuses on China which not only much gain access to more and safer oil and gas, but has sound reasons for controlling its coal priorities. The focus described isRussia's potential in" Angarsk, at the southern end of Lake Baikal in eastern Siberia" and not near the Pacific.China has proposed a crude-oil pipeline to its own refining centre Daqing in east China, which muchprocess less from its mature nearby field. Japan in rival proposes a longer but all-Russia pipeline to Nakhodka which would be advanced as a major Pacific port. Much Japanese investment in east Siberiaand access to Pacific markets/sources make Russia likely to agree.[Such a deal may also have more options for Russia than its very advanced Pacific deal via the Sakhalin oil boom: see "Japan Inc." http:/ /www.findarticles. com.] Meanwhile China, fearing 60% of its oil must be imported by 2030 - with 50% already nervously from the Middle East - is very soon "expected to sign an agreement on the construction of a 1,200km cross-border section of the pipeline from Atasu in Kazakhstan to Dushanzi in China's Xinjiang region" . This could connect to the Caspian Sea region, and deliver 20m tonnes annually within two years. The $3 billion is high, but supply is reliable, and China is getting natural gas from already-improving Xinjiang this year for $15 billion.

The Economist 08 May 04 "Nuclear Power: Out Of Chernobyl's Shadow" (57-8):-analysis of many changingEU economic, environmental and financial situations/policies as regards nuclear energy. Some trans-European radiation, blown from the Chernobyl accident, persuaded several EO countries to freeze their own industries. "Now, a fresh dose of nuclear energy has entered [EU] from the east [since m]any of the countries that joined...rely heavily on nuclear power. This is forcing the EU to confront some extremely tricky choices about the future role of nuclear power...Achieving western safety standards at the 18 nuclear plants that have just been added to the EU will be a bonanza for western consultants...In some cases, new western plants may be built, initially to replace Soviet ones, but perhaps later to replace filthy coal-powergenerators...EU's anti-nuclear stance may soften. [The] important new Finnish reactor highlights a thirdfactor that could boost nuclear power within the EU: global warming...EU has made [Kyoto treaty] targets legally binding...But if environmental arguments may increasingly work in nuclear's favour, the main obstacle is likely to be cost [affected by the variable oil and gas prices]. Finding investors willing to finance a new nuclear plant is formidably hard...Perhaps the best hope is to come up with cheaper designs for nuclear plants. Lately, nuclear builders have been making big promises about lowering costs."

The Economist 15 May 04 "War in Sudan:Don't Forget It" (Edit.10) "Special Report on Sudan: Fleeing the Horsemen Who Kill For Khartoum" (21-3):-reports:(1)cautious agreement about an encouraging but uncertain "comprehensive peace" to end north-south civil war since 1957;(2)bloody/displacing attacksdirected by government against western Darfur region whose newly armed people feared being excluded. North-south war started at Sudan's independence by black non-Moslems living over southern half of largest African state, who sought autonomy from Moslem and Arabic north. War killed 2 million(mostly civilians)and became even more fierce when new Sudan oil concession areas were hugely located in south. Under mostly US pressure/promise, both groups finally agreed on series of agreements and "to share power for six years, after which south will be allowed referendum on whether or not to secede...In west and east of country, regions utterly neglected by state , those who feel left out -in particular, in[black Moslem]Darfur-have taken up arms. Government has evidently determined to crush them with such ferocity that otherSudanese are too scared to follow suit" .Its militia is acting so viciously, it is drawing US anger -and soonUN. Economist 29 May 04 "Sudan: Peace in the South, War in the West" (Edit.14) "Sudan: A Triumph Marred By Terror" (48): bring developments up: Sudan's "government and southern rebels surmounted last obstacles in way of peace. [W]ar between north and south...appear[s]to be over. Proposed transitional government will not be pretty...but war is uglier...In western region of Darfur, government is fighting two black Muslim rebel groups...Some 1.2m [blacks]have been driven from their homes, and perhaps 30,000 killed.[A]id workers predict that between 150,000 and 350,000 people will die in next nine months from hunger and disease if Sudan's government does not stop hindering relief efforts" .Economist 03 Jul 04 "Sudan: Dousing the Frames of Darfur" (Edit.13) "Sudan: The Calamity Continues" (39):continue report: "Actions in Darfur...have created arguably worst humanitarian crisis in world today. Arab-dominated regime Khartoum is fighting revolt there by discontented blacks and has been driving black Darfuris fromsmoking remains of homes. Most of driving is done by mounted militia called janjaweed which governmentarms but pretends not to...USAID predicted...1m might die if help did not come fast" .UNSG Annan and US Secretary of State Powell visited Sudan to threaten government with UNSC sanctions, but offer aidwhen/where can. Economist 31 Jul 04 "Sudan Can't Wait: Genocide in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: The World Notices Darfur" (39-40):both describe international details US and Britain in particular are facing when tryingto end terrible action by janjaweed actions against people of Darfur, and serious food absence for millions. Third Darfur item, "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40),has Summary in sections due to future relevance of legality UN action/inaction. Economist 28 Aug 04 "Sudan: Crunch Time in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: Decision Time in Sudan" (39-40) "Darfur's Rebels: No Angels" (40):-there have been frequent/appalling Editorials/articles in past months, but trio is worth reading even if you do not want to scan them all. It contains a large amount of new information on complexities of this situation. Unfortunately much could be relevant to other African/Arab/illogical states and UN delay in crisis. Economist11 Dec 04 "Southern Sudan: The Refugees Prepare To Return Home" (45):-as noted in May items, slownorth-south peace negotiations continued/maybe ended, while western genocide continued, despitesmall/slow intervention in Darfur by African troops. South now seems prepared for peace/important resettlement takes place/is described.

The Economist 29 May 04 "Haiti: Misery Upon Misery" (35-6):-another tragedy has hit poorest country in Americas. Torrential rains smashed a border region between Dominican Republic and Haiti," unleashing floods and devastating mudslides" . About 2,000 people were reported killed, half in one Haitian town alone. Meanwhile 8m Haitians already under some control by multi-national forces, attracted by a political revolt but soon replaced by a formal UN peacekeeping force. Transitional government of technocrats is alreadyheaded by a former UN official - and that raises increasing global needs for UN to run nations collapsed "out of control" . Here are Haiti excerpts: " [State has]no army...and a small and ill-armed policeforce...For most Haitians, life is all about survival. Two-thirds of them lack a proper job. The price of ricehas almost doubled since January. Mountains of rubbish have piled up in the streets. In Port-au-Prince, there is no water and almost no electricity for those who cannot afford generators. Good roads exist onlyin the memory of those old enough to remember better days. Estimates of the cost of the looting anddestruction of property in February[revolt]range[$100-300m]. Public services collapsed. That was a body blow to an economy already wounded by years of mismanagement, general instability, a UN embargo in the early 1990s and a suspension of foreign aid after 2000. The only growth business has been thetracking of Colombian cocaine...A readier source of cash[than aid]is the $1billion that the Haitians livingabroad send back home each year. That amounts to three times the country's exports or the government'sbudget. Most of this money is spent on foods and clothes. It helps to pay for survival, not reconstruction. Haitians are growing angry over rising food prices[,but]Haiti's failures are rooted in its history[and]also in its social and racial divisions" .

The Economist 29 May 04 "Dubai: Arabia's Field of Dreams" (61-2):- "One of the world's most successful business ventures is a small city state" . Here are excerpts from the extraordinary survey: "Dubai has someoil and gas, but they contribute barely 6% of its economic output and are due to run out in about 10 years. [Yet it]has been wisely using [this] income over the years to invest in a different sort of future, replacing hydrocarbons with people as it has expanded to be the tourism and business hub of a regionwhere 1.5 billion people are within two hours' flying time. Thirty years ago there was nothing in Dubai but a creek, a sheikh's palace and a dodgy reputation as the smuggling capital of the Arabian Gulf. The traditional Arab dhows remain , and there were recent echoes of its smuggling past when it emerged, amidrumours of terrorist money-laundering, that much of Pakistan's illegal trade in nuclear materials passed through Dubai. But in other respects, the sheikhdom has been magnificently transformed, and is now a beacon for legitimate, non-oil business in the Arab world - where shining examples of capitalism are rare...Emirates Airline has played a crucial part in Dubai's development. From the start, Dubai has run an open-skyapproach, welcoming any foreign airline that wants to fly in competition...Now 100 airlines link Dubai to 145 destinations [and] Emirates has thrived on competition...As the city-state built huge tax-free shopping mallsand launched sporting events,...so it became a holiday destination, offering attractions such as desertsafaris and dhow cruises...Dubai is remarkably open to foreigners. Of its 1.5m people, over 80% areexpatriates...Dubai's easy-going style...has made it such a positive place to live and work that success feeds on itself.

The Economist 29 May 04 "Saudi Arabia and Oil: What If?" (Special Report: 69-70):-article studiespossibility/need for Saudi Arabia to reduce/control oil prices: A Letter from Osama bin Laden to US states:" 'You steal our wealth and oil at paltry prices because of your international influence and military threats. This theft is indeed the biggest theft ever witnessed by mankind'...The impact of these chilling words is still being felt in today's chaotic energy markets...[D]ecision by OPEC to increase quotas [t]his time may be different. A soaring world economy has sucked global inventories dry. Nearly every OPEC producer, save Saudi Arabia, is already producing about as much oil as it can. That means that any new OPEC promise of oil will have to come chiefly from the Saudis themselves...[W]hat was once unthinkable now seemspossible, perhaps even inevitable: a major terrorist attack, or series of attacks, on oil facilities within Saudi Arabia.[Since] Saudis keep several million barrels per day(bpd)of idle capacity on hand for emergencies[,t]his spare capacity allows the Saudis to moderate oil-price strikes[,and they] remain keen tomoderate prices by using their buffer capacity.[While]not everyone is worried.,.pessimists reckon that well-coordinated attacks could take as much as 6m-7m bpd of Saudi output off the market for weeks, andperhaps longer.[W]orld oil market react[ion] to such a blow...is clearly better equipped to handle a supply shock than it was [in] 1970s[:]rich world is much less energy intensive [,and] OECD countries now maintainlarge 'strategic reserves' of petroleum, and coordinate the release of these during emergencies...Even so, there is good reason to worry.

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Amorphous But Alive" (42-3):-since 11 Sep 01 "al-Qaeda [attacks] killed more than 1,000 people in more than a dozen countries. [E]xpert on group 'reckons that Mr. bin Laden is closer to achieving his goals than the West is to deterring him'.[IISS institute claims]only way to'depress recruitment and motivation'...would be to find 'currently elusive'solutions to messes such asIraq and Palestine. It guesses that 18,000-odd people, who were trained in terrorist tactics by[Afghan]Talibanregime...but escaped...may be...ready to help al-Qaeda" . Not including Iraq, US State claims fewer terrorist incidents in 2003 than for decades, and that coordinated police took "more than 3,400 suspected al-Qaeda people out of action, including two-thirds of [its] leaders" .But "[W]orld's security specialists are almost unanimously gloomy. They say it is no longer a question of if but when al-Qaeda will hit a western city again. Many expect it to explode a 'dirty bomb'- a device that scatters radioactive material. [It] has simply been forced to change its structure and tactics. For reasons of logistics and security, Mr. bin Laden nowappears to act mainly as a figurehead, ceding operational control to his chief lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri" . Preceding this: "Saudi Arabia: Why Terrorists are Targeting Islam's Holiest Land" (41-2). In Economist 26 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Setbacks for Terror" (49-52), tactical update on some Muslim governments' successes against serious jihadi terrorists. In Riyadh, Saudi police were able to kill four of country's most wanted terrorists, including al-Qaeda's local head, and netted further dozen suspects. Algerian army cornered al-Qaeda-loyal cell and killed seven guerrillas, of which four were identified senior leaders including group's commander. "In Bahrein and Morocco, police claimed to have rounded up two local jihadi cells. InPakistan... missile fired from helicopter killed Pushtun tribal leader known to have succoured al-Qaedafugitives. But if jihadi are down, they are certainly not out...al-Qaeda will soon strike back, if only to proveit is still punching" . Economist 14 Aug 04 "Chasing al-Qaeda: Plots, Alarms and Arrests" (22-4):-description of US "orange warning" due to "high risk" of terrorist attack on several institutions. "Though based on new-found intelligence, threat to US financial establishments was not new.[C]ache of al-Qaeda computer files...at least three years old." While large scale and immediate defence of reported targets was felt inappropriate by many, practi