|
|
| by Christopher
Spencer |
Former Senior
Advisor International Organizations, Canadian Department of
Foreign Affairs and International Trade |
| Updated: 19 JUL
10 | |
Francis Kofi Abiew & Tom Keating "Outside Agents and the Politics of Peacebuilding and
Reconciliation" International Journal Vol.LV/No.1(Winter 99-00):-discusses new policy towards,
often mixed experience with peacebuilding. Recent global trends:(1)major increase in intra-state
violence;(2) multilateral emphasis on individual human rights/security, and hence humanitarian
interventions. "In this context...peacebuildingemerged as central part of what rest of world to
offer to divided societies" i.e. not just hostilities end but all necessary for sustainable peace. Yet
past problems/ limitations demand careful look at practicality/ suitability/ ethics of outside
intervention in support of peace building in divided societies. Analyse variousmotivations behind
such intervention; then objectives: not just peace but also market democracy/ "politics of
reconciliation." Unhappy(Canadian)experience in Haiti dissected to draw lessons.
Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability
to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave
humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has
failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United
Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and
create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results,
not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters
and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century
Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills
& Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.
Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development
Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which
US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the
regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back
by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized
extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist
diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU".
Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91.
Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and
Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.
James AdamsThe Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is
Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning
about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information
warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat.
Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars
may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and
surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity
- of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global
North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their
technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that
technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state
war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits,
sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly
ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location
(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even
very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major
consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]
AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION
John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive
Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule"
(Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two
concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether
- in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of
mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While]Millennium African
Renaissance Programme[made South Africa's president Mbeki call firstfor]'critical examination
of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done
differently'" ,editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms
of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt
Africanregimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA
article stressesincreased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which
received about 1b poundsin bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new
technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on
peacekeeping. Business item notes although,when South Africa's present rulers still rebels
threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance
through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with
attempts to create new class of black businessmen" .Survey's analyses, whileconcentrating on
South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of
Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very
rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected
bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2)
apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In
addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and
poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world
country...Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped
with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with
leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not
just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses:(1)Land(Re)Distribution: with
apartheid,white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education:
takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in
world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatensnot just South Africans' security but very basis of their
society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem
trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from
60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative
action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, butracial gaps are probably
diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination;(6)Employment and Investment:
both face major shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution" ;"
only40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much
apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme
Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation
Commission provided neither, butoffered "day in court" ;(8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000
whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those staying generally do not
suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Coloureds complain
they are "not black enough" ; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and
African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and
income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.
Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign
AffairsVol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN USG for
Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina,
Afghanistan and Iraq. Providesanalysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At
War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly
Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ.
Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three
draw"attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and
practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not
enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction,
authors belie inherent complexities of task...Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their
historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/maintained. Yet
none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations."Essay is worth reading - as
a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.
Fouad Ajami"The Ways of Syria: Statis in Damascus"(153-158)Foreign AffairsVol.88/No.3
(May/Jun 09):-Review Essay of Itamar Ravinovich: The View From Damascus: State, Political
Community, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria(Vallentine Mitchell 08, 365pp.
$49.95). Official summary:"As Washington [and Israel?] consider[s] a rapprochement with Bashar
al-Assad's Syria, Itamar Ravinovich's commanding new book makes clear that change will not
come quickly or easily - and, if the past is any indication, it may not come at all". Selected
emphatic extract:"A big... book of history and diplomacy by the Israeli scholar takes readers
deep into the world of the Syrian state - and into that mix of pride and injury that has shaped its
modern history. [He] tracks the twists and turns of Syria's political journey in recent decades,
its transformation from the plaything of outside powers into a player of consequence in the
Levant. No other writer has dug as deep into such material as [author] has in this book, a
distillation of a lifetime of concern with the ways of Syria". Ajami: Professor of Middle East
Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ School of Advanced International Studies and Adjunct Research
Fellow at Hoover Institution.
John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York:
St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact
of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force.
Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together
with transnational/religiousbodies/groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or
socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical,
electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful
scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages
or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategic implications, moral opposition,
legal considerations, and constraints on "winning" .
Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1
(Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons
problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The current global nuclear order is
extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's
nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put
these threats at the top of his national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will
encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries". Emphasized extracts:"Over the past
eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons". "Obama's
mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The
international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having
failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare
not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of
such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and
Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School
of Government. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation"
at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation. Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson
"The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official
summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear
weapons, but many political and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of
reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will have to assuage the fears of
nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its
owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From
first paragraph:"Over the past three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in
WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear agenda includes renewing formal arms
control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing for
ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear
nonproliferation regime, and redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be
used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made this goal a priority for his
administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he
was Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served
as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons
Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.
Mark Almond, Europe's Backyard War: The War in the Balkans(London: Heinemann
94):-combination of background information on post-Yugoslav conflicts and military/political
conduct to publication date. Highly critical of diplomatic actions of virtually all involved,
including most Yugoslav groups, UN and European bodies. Gives prescient warning of ominous
precedent set by failure in Balkans.
Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of
Nationalism(Revised Edition) (London: Verso, 1994):-among the rich variety of good sources on
nationalism-ethnicity, this readable and often amusing text is particularly strong on the creation
of a "sense" of nationality in European colonies who form the largest UN voting blocs. It is in
many ways a study of social evolution and even of self-deception but the results are very real -
and so is the inherent instability of many artificial "nations" .
Scott Anderson "The Curse Of Blood and Vengeance" New York Times 26 Dec 99:-recounts
personal study of tradition of village violence in northern Albania. Most valuable, however, is
20-year Balkan veteran's main aim: to test his view of origin of recent terrible ethnic blood-letting.
Like most careful observers,denies "Balkans singularly riven by centuries-old ethnic and
religious hatreds." Longer-term history, traditional inter-habitation ethnic groups, high levels of
intermarriage in cosmopolitan cities, disprove this. Believes tendency to violence reflects
continuation of urban-rural "gulf of experience...awful chasm...Typical Balkan village...has always
been hard and pitiless place, where change and outside influence deeply mistrusted[and society
follows]medieval code of honor and loyalty" . Vividly describes Balkan village codes/violent
means of enforcement, filled with "murderous cycle(s) of vengeance" . Ethnic cleansing
ordered(Milosevic/Tudjman)and carried out notably by men from villages and small towns.
Kofi A. Annan, "Two Concerns of Sovereignty: International Intervention in Humanitarian Crises"
The Economist18 Sep 99(49-50):-UNSG gives his views on basic issues. Inaction in Rwanda and
interventions in Kosovo(no authority) and East Timor(too little too late)all justify criticism. We
need consensus "not only... that massive and systematic violations of human rights must be
checked...but also on ways of deciding what action is necessary, and when, and by whom."
Critical points: "intervention" should not be understood as referring only to use of force; we
need redefinition of sovereignty and broader definition of national interests that "would induce
states to find greater unity in pursuit of common goals and values...today,collective interest is
national interest" ;if force is necessary, Council must uphold Charter; act "in defence of our
common humanity" ;ceasefires do not end commitments.
Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG
offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level
Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary
of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many
concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects
they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary
interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are
evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our
responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them
on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]-
eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to
peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions
are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure
an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic
recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure
that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First:
threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines
states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including
poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide;
nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats
interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at
size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe
isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of
poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is
longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly
carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of
millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all
categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security
system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Given gravity/ interconnectedness
of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states,
acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium
Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save
lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm.
HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m
killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered
societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health
facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit disease treatment/ local prevention;
whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale natural epidemics. UNSC
should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal:
greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources
management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New is
range/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).
Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use
assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition
of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/ non-combatants, with
purpose of intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States
should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent
recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk
of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end
development of domestic uranium enrichmentand urged to voluntary time- limited moratorium
on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitorcompliance with Non-Proliferation
Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN
far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than
in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets
grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should
hastenefforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in
mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/ reintegrate into
civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals (democracy/ justice/
development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/
peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to givestrategic focus for
work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN
must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic
guidelines/ questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does
proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4)
Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear
action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of
self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states
fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left
to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when
asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet
recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-
responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in
internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/ other
comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very
different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g.
peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching
reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too
difficult/ not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states
benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of
share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends
strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC
reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised
(1945) to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent
members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24;
aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC
represents UN as whole;not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals
offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/ better equipped
for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding
Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/ mediating civil
wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for
management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social
development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also,
recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once
again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and
criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt
collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states
reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate
moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call
for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived
through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all
share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility."
Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level
Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG
Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of
UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing
the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six
Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at
http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United
Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR
directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the
United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.
"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's
04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security
issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies
towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly
influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or
presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western
national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex
chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared
and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's
Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and
Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6)
Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary
Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes.
(8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.
Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random
House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical
reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current
struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This
book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04
May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal
conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes
himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly
all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully
placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography,
it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments:
"[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression
against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation
between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately
200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a
legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so
roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep...
initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century...
It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early
to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing
inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).
Associated Press, "Number of Refugees Grows Worldwide" New York Times 13 Jun 00:-World
Refugee Survey 2000, issued by prestigious US Committee for Refugees, claims that at end of
20th Century there were35m people worldwide "uprooted and in need of protection." Conflict
contributed 7m to this in 99 alone, and despite UN success in ending some long-term disputes
following end of Cold War, this estimated total had risen from 29m in 90. Moreover, of these,
13.7m are found in Africa(4.4m in Sudan alone).Another trend has been continually growing
number of refugees that for various reasons remain in their own countries:Internally Displaced
Persons. Identified IDPs now number at least 4m, and clearly demand higher priority from
UN-UNHCR since they are not afforded same legal protections and care as" international"
refugeesunder Geneva Conventions. On other hand, there is hope that some sources of refugees
and IDPs may bein sight of permanent solution. Elizabeth Rosenthal, "Famine in North Korea
Creates Steady Human Flow into China" NYT 10 Jun:-report on motives and stratagems of North
Korean refugees within/outside their country. Any moves towards Korean reconciliation could
have major and rapid effect on this crisis. For evenlonger-term look at issue of unwilling
migration, AP reports "Conference Addresses Migration" NYT 10 Jun:-experts Paris meeting
organized by Universal Academy of Cultures concluded "globalization demands greater moral
responsibility and intervening in sovereign nations is plausible response to misery that drives
populations beyond their borders." Those seeking political asylum increased from 250,000 in 87
to 900,000 in 92, but then declined to 388,000 in 98,perhaps reflecting growing influence of such
perceptionin UN. Meanwhile, if Europe's population falls 100m by 50, migration waves may
become beneficial.
Associated Press "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"New York Times 16 Nov
05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its
million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader,
and terrorism is flaring upall over the region. But at US' s major Asian outposts, some serious
downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will
be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest
reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its32,500-strong force in Korea over next
3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand overmajor elements of troops'
mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary
said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000US troops are
stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan
that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa...
Ananalyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea in line
with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully
capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development
and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops.
Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its
own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in
regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing... Under new accord... Japan
will defend itself, deal with such threats as ballistic missilesand commando attacks and invasion
of its own islands. US will deploy latest missile defense radar".
Associated Press"EU Agency: Gypsies Suffer Discrimination"New York Times 07 Apr
06:-"Gypsies[henceforth Roma] remain among Europe's most discriminated-against people,
European Union's racism watchdog agency said [07 Apr]... Roma routinely denied jobs/
housing/education/health care, saidVienna-based EU Monitoring Center on Racism and
Xenophobia. Center's director... said Roma living in many of EU's 25 member states suffer
'systematic discrimination', and called for more intensive effort/greater political will to eliminate
the bias and help lift Roma communities out of poverty. Estimated 6.2m Roma live in Europe -
4.6m in central/eastern Europe - according to estimates by UN-affiliatedInternational Organization
for Migration. Last year... EU monitoring center said unemployment ran as high as 90% among
Roma in some new EU members such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, and that worst
discrimination happened when Roma tried to rent/buy property. ['T]erritorial segregationis
particularly acute', report said. Roma also tended to receive substandard medical care... A
globalconference of Prague-based International Romani Union - coalition of organizations
working to easethe plight of Roma - designated 08 Apr as International Day of Roma in 1990"
Associated Press"AIDS Conference Ends With Appeals"New York Times 26 Apr 06:-
"International AIDS conference [in Cape Town, of 1,000 scientists/researchers,] ended [26 Apr]
with impassioned appeals to political/pharmaceutical industry leaders to fund development of
a virus-killing [vaginal] gel to protect women from the disease and so save millions of lives. Peter
Piot, head of UNAIDS,.. said safe/effective microbicides could be ready in 5-7 years, with only
minimal additional funding, and thus turn the dream of saving millions of lives into reality... In
the hard hit African countries, women account for nearly 60% of infections. Most are infected
through heterosexual intercourse... UNAIDS/WHO have long promotedmicrobicides as a
potentially valuable weapon in fight against the epidemic, not least because it allows women to
protect themselves without having to rely on partners who refuse to wear a condom or befaithful.
Yet despite this, research has proceeded slowly. [Piot] said investment in microbicide
development should be doubled - and even then would still only reach about US$150m per
year...Microbicides can take the form of a gel, cream, sponge or ring that releases an ingredient
that can kill or deactivate HIV during intercourse. There are currently five different products being
tested[, mainly in Africa on thousand of women]. Dozens of agents that could interrupt HIV
transmission have so far beenidentified. There are also hopes that the microbicides could be
used to prevent other sexually transmitteddiseases and unwanted pregnancies. One of the
products, cellulose sulphate, has the potential to bea contraceptive and shield against HIV...
Another microbicide, Carragard, coats vaginal cells and preventsthe virus from entering...Much
of funding for research comes from Gates Foundation and US government... Trying to dismiss
fears that microbicides would mainly be used in developing countries and therefore offer only
low profit margins, [WHO] cited their potential for use in contraception in wealthy countries".
Associated Press "North Korea Knows How to Get Attention" New York Times 08 Jul 06:- "North
Korea is well practiced in getting some of what it wants through provocation. Bullying through
a bullhorn has worked time and again for a small nation with an outsized military force and an
even bigger capacity forbluster and threat. It's called coercive diplomacy. North Korean-style, it
has involved antagonizing everyone on and over the horizon, foes and allies alike, and then
pulling back. Sometimes just in the nick of time... That's the case now... 'When diplomacy is
stalled, North escalates tension to break thedeadlock', Wonhyuk Lim, Brookings Institution
fellow,.. says in analysis... Risk is that North's attention-grabbing actions may bring bombs in
reprisal instead of diplomacy, as almost happened in Clinton [era].In 2003, North pulled out of
a nuclear arms treaty, vowing to bring 'defeat and ruin'on US, warning of WWIII and declaring,
'Let us see who will win and who will be defeated in the fire-to-fire standoff'. This was followed
by the first substantive talks between the two nations since President Bush came to office.As
a propaganda gambit, the missile tests [04 Jul 06] were hardly a smashing success... North's
starlong-range missile is said to have failed like a bum firecracker on its mission of defiance and
military advancement. Half-dozen tests of shorter range missiles were conducted to uncertain
effect, but no failures as far as known. Results, in short, spoke to North's apparent ability to
wreak havoc in its region and its inability any time soon to reach US mainland with missile. For
US, 'main risk seems to be that North is beginning early testing of a missile that could throw
equivalent of a rock at Alaska', said AnthonyCordesman of Center for Strategic and International
Studies. Yet North has massive combat forces on border with South; long-range artillery capable
of reaching Japan and destroying up to 40% of Southeconomy; and huge stocks of chemical
weapons as well as its rising nuclear weapons capability. [North]fields world's fifth largest army,
behind China, US, Russia and India. It is considered no match in any protracted fight with South
Korea's lethal modern forces, US' s unmatched power or a devastating combination of both. Still
any conflict could bring horrific consequences to both sides and risk pittingChina against US
[like 1950-53 Korean War?].Cordesman protests tendency to regard Kim Jong Il as areckless
poseur without a purpose. 'North... has reminded everyone of just how serious a threat Northcan
be, how limited most military options are, and how serious the risks of any major war would
be',Cordesman said. North's declaration in 1993 that it would pull out of NPT brought peninsula
close to war and isolated the country through international censure, in the process leading to
breakthroughnegotiations with Washington that produced agreement to freeze North's nuclear
activities in exchange for US energy assistance. North's first test of a multistage rocket in 1998,
also a flop, spurred bilateraltalks. Current framework of six-nation negotiations set up after North
resumed its plutonium program in 2002 and expelled international inspectors [IAEA]. That pattern
of edging toward confrontation, then edging back, has persisted, always accompanied by tough
words. More are being heard now" .
Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep
06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an
unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed
for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting
got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote
Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur,
promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade
has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said
humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal
conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used
as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer
apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges
- unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of
law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an
international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer
to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched
on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan;
Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others
have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to
be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common
future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".
Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China
said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but
vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report
issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on
protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons.
'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the
91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace,
security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has
been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b,
but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key
items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm
stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its
direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal
withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain
theseparatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report
said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China'policy,
'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with
Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains
Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself
against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in
Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no
first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with
backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and
continued turbulence in Mideast, it said".
Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3(May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo
officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international
community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern
Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do,
the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized
extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger
than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground
up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.
Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of
ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE
SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first
offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM
ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security
Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary'describes wide variety of military activities, many
of which bear little resemblance to those of today's... corporate endeavours that perform
logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more". "The Bush
Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped
up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and
numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't
Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said
Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military
contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly
complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military
Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present
for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and
contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition
to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility"
. "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate
security contractors to greater or lesser degrees ... Contractors are accountable to range of
employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid
governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace"
-NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest
in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely
have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors
Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably.
Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those
of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more
contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention
on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security
contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental
organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard
their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity...
requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO.
"Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN
peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use...
Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it
because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them".
"Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine
states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private
security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based
in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see
The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent
decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight
nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has
proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next
fortune to be found?".
Benjamin R. Barber, Jihad vs. McWorld: How the Planet is Both Falling Apart and Coming
Together and What This Means for Democracy(New York: Times Books 95):-unusual and
debatable perception of some broad global trends that has generated new interest - though not
necessarily credibility for its conclusion - since its publication. Argues world experiencing basic
conflict between homogenizing power of post-industrial capitalism/ "fundamentalist"
ethnic-religious reaction. Believes both forces undermine state(presumably in terms of traditional
sovereignty)and hence democracy.[Why and how is democracy so dependent upon sanctity of
Westphalian nation-state?]Sources of new interest derive, of course, from growth of
anti-globalization movement, however disunited it may be in both fears and formulas, and "Clash
of Civilizations" thesis put forward by Samuel P. Huntington(op.cit.)and apparently illustrated -all
too violently- by Osama bin Laden.
Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford
Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing
the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics)
and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities,
asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in
the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in
future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly
in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United
Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated
"page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2)
the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number
of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most
chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be
valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG
that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States
that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All
States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What
States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to
Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.
Warren Bass"The Triage of Dayton"Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.5(Sep/Oct 98):-highly critical
account of US/UN actions and inactions relating to 95 Dayton Accords on Bosnia.(Full account
of negotiations: Holbrooke op.cit.)Seems to take it as given that" Serbs"and they alone
committed both aggression and ethnic cleansing, and hence required punishment, not
mediation. Argued that early "lift and strike" policy by US against Serbs(regardless of UN ground
forces' vulnerability as decided by UNSC)could have let US(sic) "stay true to its avowed ideals
of multiethnic tolerance, liberal democracy and reversing aggression."
Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis and Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in
Africa(Oxford: James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple
political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after
lamenting demography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain
developments: facade of democratictransition/structural adjustment/other reforms; armed
conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal
activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/violence).While driven
by change, these African reactions show historical influence of approvingaccumulation of power
and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thus nationalism, government and law are simply
used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.
Barbara Beck "The Economics of Ageing: The Luxury of Longer Life" The Economist 27 Jan
96(Survey 1-16):-longer average lifespans worldwide are raising global, and not simply national,
problems in fields like economics and finance, travel and migration, medicine and health care,
social and cultural change, and even moral standards.
Brian Beedham "The New Geopolitics: The Road to 2050" The Economist 31 Jul 99(1-16):-mainly
Kosovo-inspired proposal: democracies(i.e. NATO)actively try to make(run?)better, more
peaceful world through joint foreign policy "core of[which]would attempt to spread...democracy.
Includes trying to help peoplesquashed under another people's heel...to govern itself." To this
end "should be able to construct jointmilitary force that can be swiftly sent to distant parts."
Other "great powers" may soon beChina/Japan/Russia/India. If China seems threat, any/all
democratic three might want to join "Alliance for Democracy." Survey rules out "clash of
civilizations" and credible alternatives to state sovereignty oreventual democracy.[My reaction:
Who looks after increasing variety/number/ seriousness of other -oftenvery closely related-
problems in same world? UN mentioned only in sarcastic sentence about few wanting
international body to have standing army of its own; yet that's exactly what's being proposed!
More important, might not 5b others in world have some democratic(sic)views/objections
regarding self-selected/-deployed global police force? Also, if major aim of force liberation of
minorities, likelythousands of such groups will demand both independence/help? Won't
sovereignty continue devolving simply for global survival?]
J.Bowyer Bell The Dynamics of the Armed Struggle(London: Frank Cass 98):-on mind-set/internal
mechanisms of underground groups similar to Bell's speciality, IRA; broader relevance is limited.
"Struggle" apparently denotes any violent acts by any rebels against authority, from terrorism
to full-scale warfare. Mentioned are those who bomb civilians in crowds/aircraft/buses/large
buildings, through guerrilla groups that massacre/coerce entire populations, to
regular(winning)armies(e.g. those of Washington/Bolivar/ Lenin/Giap/Khmer Rouge/Eritrea)if
initially irregular. Terrorism is not key tactic of choice but only unavoidable. With these
limitations, eloquently described: Struggle's Nature, Arena, Analysis/Reality, Faith's
Galaxy(support), Recruitment, Individuals, Organization, Command/ Control, Maintenance,
Communications, Deployment, Intelligence, Campaigns, "Enemy" , End-games, Dream's
Dynamic.
Christopher de Bellaigue "THINK AGAIN: IRAN" Foreign Policy No.148 (May/Jun 05) (18-24):-like
other FPissues, correction of nine public concepts; here: about Iranian nuclear weapons
production/use or its positive response to stiff US pressure. Author first outlines widely-held
views( "Under-lined Statements" ); states FIRM REACTIONS; and then provides his view of actual
truth. He first provides summary: "Tehran's desire for nuclear bomb has put it in Washington's
cross hairs. But neither President George W.Bush'srepeated condemnations of Iran's clerical
rulers, nor the threat of military force will advance cause ofdemocracy there. When Iran reforms,
it will happen because its youth - not the United States - demands it." "If Iran Gets a Nuclear
Bomb, Iran Will Use It"-VERY UNLIKELY. "Iran almost certainly does not intendto brandish a
nuclear bomb in an attempt to intimidate...Israel/US... Further, clerics have blessed a partial
detente with their Arab neighbours and...EU.[Yet] there is plausible circumstantial evidence ...to
suggestthat Iran's nuclear program is not civilian. [N]uclear ambiguity is calculated, a reaction
to the vulnerability it feels. Iran probably intends to gather all the elements necessary for bomb
making, so that it can gonuclear the moment that it feels an attack is imminent." "Iran Has No
Use for Nuclear Power"-False."Energy needs are rising faster than [Iran's oil/gas] ability to meet
them... Its capacity must nearly triple over 15 years to meet projected demand[,and the electricity
cannot all come] from the oil sector. [Output] has stagnated at around 3.7mbd since late 1990s.
Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally [and the natural] gas reserves are only just
being tapped. It makes sense for Iran to free up its hydrocarbons for export [and] Iran contends
that US may pressure foreign sellers into stopping the flow. [Hence] Iran'sdesire for a complete
fuel cycle is most suspicious aspect of nuclear program"."The Iranian People Support Their
Leaders' Nuclear Program"-NOT REALLY. "Iranians who vocally
support...nuclearambitions...minority[;] never witnessed spontaneous discussion of nuclear
program among average Iranians...Unlikely many Iranians willing to put up with
economic/diplomatic isolation...if Iran insisted on enriching uranium"."Only the Threat of Force
Can Dissuade Iran from Advancing with Its Nuclear Plans"-DOUBTFUL."Threat...could
also...encourage Iran to leave NPT and develop a nuclear weapon ASAP...[N]ever abandons goal
of achieving a nuclear fuel cycle... Iran is more flexible than it appears...[It might] revise its
nuclear plans if US abandoned its [hard policies] ...Ultimately it might refuse to publicly
relinquish nuclear goals, preferring instead to extend current negotiations indefinitely"."U.S.
Military Action Would Embolden Dissidents to Topple the Islamic Republic"-WRONG.
"Workers...keeping their heads down andmouths shut... Iranians don't want Iraq's wretched
conditions... Iranians opposed to Islamic Republic lack a unifying ideology... Possible some
Iranians would cheer a US invasion, but not for long". "Criticizing the Islamic Republic Helps
Dissidents Inside Iran"-NO. "Bush's repeated statements of support for Iranian people do not
help normal Iranians... Publicly defending beleaguered reformists simply allowed clerics to
accuse reformers of being US lackeys...US criticism has perverse effect because US has no
diplomatic or economic relations with Iran, and hence no leverage. EU and others [have] some
modest leverage with Iran's clerical rulers". "If Iraq Becomes a Democracy, so Will
Iran"-WISHFUL THINKING. "Border is about all they share...Few Iranians...question Iran's
integrity within its current borders. Same is not true in Iraq...Iran set up a semi-democratic,
anti-Western, Shia theocracy... Clerics today enjoy considerable prestige"."Iran Cannot Be
Reformed from Within"-WRONG AGAIN. "Iran can and will be reformed from within.
Demographics make that course inevitable. Some 70% of Iran's 70m citizens under age of 30, and
young Iranians are more reform-minded than older groups... Young people resent existing
political restrictions more than their elders, and are less religiously observant... Spread of
material values and sexual freedom is palpable, as is desire for smaller families...Young people
display little animus for once-hated US...[Yet]reform-minded millions lack common
ideology/leadership... New generation will... spur further reform. Process would benefit from
critical dialogue with US, rather than current, glowering standoff".
Phyllis Bennis and Michel Moushabeck edit., Altered States: A Reader in the New World
Order(New York: Olive Branch Press 93):-uneven but generally left-inclined, strongly anti-US
collection of 48 essays, divided into nine groupings: After the Gulf War[global, mostly security,
issues];North-South Economic Divide;Transformation of Nationalism: From Anti-Colonialism to
Ethnic Cleansing; Soviet Union and Russia;Middle East; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Europe.
More useful as source of views at that interesting time,than facts.
Samuel R.Berger"Foreign Policy for a Democratic President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3 (May/Jun
04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime,
andneeds/opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended)
regime. Most issues discussed of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign
entities, particularlyNATO/UN/international law. This mentions those of global importance
discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed style and its gratuitous
unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims, embittered even those abroad most
likely to embrace US values. New US regime "no moreurgent task than to restore...global moral
and political authority, so when we decide to act we can persuade others to join us. Achieving
reversal will require forging new strategic bargain with closest allies...Democratic approach to
resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improving flawed
agreements rather than ripping them up" .US policy towards Israel-Palestine conflict must return
with energy/urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq," Bush
administration'sunilateralist approach has let allies off hook: given them excuse to shirk these
and other global responsibilities. Democratic administration would not be so dismissive of allies
on issues that matter to them" since exercises truly international rather than exclusively US.
Similar approaches are relevant to spread of weapons of mass destruction(WMD)." Democratic
administration should use every tool at disposal to prevent WMD threats from arising before
force becomes only option". Listed issues include Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction
Program with Russia, and "global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites". Others
sites described are North Korea and Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add "new bargain"
helping non- nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.
Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9)
Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will
not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's
territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish,
the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the
development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political
Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to
Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.
Christoph Bertram, "Multilateral Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution" Survival Vol.37/No.4(Winter
95-96):-examines potential role of UN etc. through study of recent military conflicts. Seeks to
determine most successful conditions to prevent or halt conflict, and how military force can best
be used to this end.
Richard K.Betts"The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?"Foreign Affairs
Vol.83/No.3(May/ Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use,
much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence-
commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and
uncertainty about just what something could be...At end of day, strongest defense against
intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good
sense, good character, and good mental habits of senior officials" .Not mentioned in FA, but
relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak
relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and
other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university
students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers"
(Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British
governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair
respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted
regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of
Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their
intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their
information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably
worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically
inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence
Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's
intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British
intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional
intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background
implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need?
Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous
government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report
of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton).Something to
be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right
Man?"(26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced
recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating
national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism.
President Bush has nominatedCongressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term
Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already
controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US
intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist
28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat
Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National
Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each
responsible for different phase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its
departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies
would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong;
some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human
intelligence-gathering.
Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why
Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp.
$24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems
reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt
dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably
democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other
words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects
Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its
errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels
that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders
involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign
Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on
the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for
Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on
Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.
Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia & J Alexander Thier“Defining Success in Afghanistan: What Can
the United States [and NATO] Accept?”(48-60) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.4 (Jul/Aug 10):-official
summary:“Since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, the West has tried to build a strong
centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with Afghanistan’s
history and political culture. A range of alternative models are possible, of which the two most
realistic and acceptable in terms of US security interests are decentralized democracy and a
system of internal mixed sovereignty”. Emphasized extracts:“The US will have to push for a more
inclusive, flexible, and decentralized political arrangement”. “Centralized governance matches
neither the real internal distribution of power in Afghanistan nor local notions of legitimacy”.
Final sentence: “The perfect is probably not achievable in Afghanistan - but the acceptable can
still be salvaged”. Biddle is Roger Hertog Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on
Foreign Relations. Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. Thier is Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace.
For a selection of articles on Afghanistan from the Foreign Affairs archives, see the collection
at www.foreignaffairs.com/collections/afghanistan.
Linda S. Bishai "Sovereignty and Minority Rights: Interrelations and Implications" Global
GovernanceVol.4/No.2(Apr/ Jun 98):-addresses growing global source of conflict and structural
dilemma for UN. Basis: sovereignty generally treated as all-or-nothing legal concept. Shows that
identifications with statehood/territory/total domestic authority -let alone with nationalism- have
limited history, generating growing frustration/separatist demands from minority groups and
compete with globalization. But as EUshows "nations" can have "sovereignty" in all key cultural
fields while being part of larger state for other purposes. Can this not be tried globally? If
arguments of interest, "article argues that new conceptions of sovereignty should be directed
toward nonterritorial aspects. Four parts to...argument. First explains zero-sum nature of
territorial state and problems it poses for liberal multiculturalism. Second reviews various
historical types of political community and dual emergence of modern theories of sovereignty/
liberalism. Third reveals historical interrelatedness of conceptions of sovereignty and minority,
and problem causedfor international system. Last part discusses nature of indicated
reconceptualizations ofsovereignty/minorities, and prospective impact they may have on
international institutions" .
Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM
presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05
president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and
spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today
[and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international
action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to
solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on
Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak
governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could
tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For
democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right,
in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth
birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must
now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems
abroad.[Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto take root and spread[to
globe.]Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our
interests[while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense
ofhopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union
playingincreasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic
growth.[This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help
Africa continue progresswe need...coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to
improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote
peace/security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of
action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be
accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item,
to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but theirmain texts/distributions differ.
John Q. Blodgett "The Future of UN Peacekeeping" The Washington Quarterly 14(Winter 91):-bit
dated for fast-changing fields, but offers many useful insights of permanent value. Also provides
handy definitionsrelevant to current debates.
Jane Boulden "Building on the Past: Future Directions for Peace-keeping" Behind the Headlines
48(Summer 91):-excellent survey of peace-keeping principles/how might improve. Relevant to
current issues; Canadian orientation.
Newton R. Bowles, United Nations: Less is More? A Report on the Fifty-Third General Assembly:
September-December 1998(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New
York:www.unac.org 99):-author is inter alia UNICEF Senior Advisor on Children/War/closely
involved in UNGA/other UN meetings. Excellent report covers not only highlights of 98 UNGA but
variety of related UN issues over year e.g. Security Council developments. Topics covered
selectively but analytically: Overview; General Debate(tone/highlights);Globalization (dialogue/
business-liaison);ODA/FDI Resources;Human Rights/development/UN casualties; Humanitarian
Intervention; Security Council(evolution);Conflict Prevention(education); Peacekeeping;
Disarmament(new trends); Africa(war/ poverty); Crime(ICC/Tribunals/ terrorism/ drugs); NGOs/
Civil Society; UN Management/Funding.
Charles G. Boyd "Making Bosnia Work" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.1(Jan/Feb 98):-international
community's greatest problem, years after Dayton Accord: how to achieve aim of creating unified
Bosnia. After intense local investigation, concludes this impossible for foreseeable future, and
only solution is de facto partition, with security and economic aid provided to all groups,
continuing foreign presence, and long healing period.Letters Vol.77/No.3(May/Jun 98):offer some
counter-arguments.[My own inclination is to agree, and give up trying to create traditional
sovereign state where one has never existed before and at time when feelings are so intense.
Emphasis should be on down-grading significance of any borders in area and increasing
economic modernization/integration of Balkans so ethnicity becomes "private"
matter(again)while all benefit from working together.]
Keith Bradsher "Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:-
"The sleet,bulbous-nosed new bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers
across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they represent the start of a
180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction,
system scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives,
offering alternative to clogged highways and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban
planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may... control oil imports, curb
fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous
numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded
train will use only sixth of energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only
one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with bus ride, figures are half the energyand a
quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost - $15b... -
madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down
through western Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles...
System will start with 19 trains in each direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will
make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90 minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The
high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need to
cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how
many people use its somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is
developed around these stations and how much tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High
- Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed high-speed rail system
geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and
embarrassing ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between
Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins. [I]t represents colossal effort toimprove
transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment. [P]roblems
that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about
being unable to use credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full
servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours
from Taipei".
Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122)
Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer
Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that
the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much
of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's
government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands
from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Corespondent for New York
Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.
Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should
Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary
:"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world
that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry:
US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In
a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,]
stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried
us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'.
'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other
international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if
they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor
of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of
Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of
Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).
Michael E.Brown edit. Ethnic Conflict and International Security(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press
93):- despite a fast-moving target, most analyses and recommendations in these varied essays
remain highly topical. Particularly useful: Adam Roberts' sympathetic critique of Boutros-Ghali's
"Agenda for Peace" (1992) focused on: UN-overload; the changing nature of conflict; the limited
harmony among the major powers ;UNSC structure; enforcement organization; laws of war;
problematic forms of UN action; collective security prospects.
Michael E. Brown edit., The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict(Cambridge: MIT Press,
1996):- an excellent collection of essays, carefully structured and packed with realistic and
specific advice, for those UN policy-makers trying to control the proliferation of internal conflicts.
Includes separate surveys of recent UN actions in ex-Yugoslavia, East-Central Europe, the
ex-Soviet Union, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin
America. Special sections address "Instruments", "Actors" and "Conclusions".
Zbigniew Brzezinski "Hegemonic Quicksand" The National Interest Winter 03/04(5-16):-long
article on future instability excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership.
Claims unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing similar to past "European Balkans" )is
region between Europe and Far East. "For next several decades, most volatile and dangerous
region of world - with explosive potential to plunge world into chaos - will be crucial swathe[from
approximately Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and fromRusso-Kazakh border to southern
Afghanistan]...Here that America could slide into collision with world of Islam while
American-European policy differences could even cause Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. Two
eventualities together could then put prevailing American global hegemony at
risk.[C]hallengeAmerica now confronts, dwarfs what it faced half-century ago in Western Europe
[since]to promote global security will be pacification and then cooperative organization of region
that contains world's greatest concentration of political injustice, social deprivation,
demographic congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But region also contains most
of world's oil and natural gas...In 2020 area projected to produce roughly 42m barrels of oil per
day - 39% of global production total...No self-evident answers to such basic questions as how
and with whom America should be engaged in helping to stabilize area, pacifyit and eventually
cooperatively organize it." Then notes that some states in area could be US potential key
partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four are then examined in detail but ruled out for
various reasons. "Ultimately US can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe. Although it will
need help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither likely at this stage to
become heavily engaged. OnlyEurope...potential capacity in political, military and economic
realms to pursue jointly with US task of engaging various Eurasian peoples...US and Europe
together represent array of physical and experientialassets with capacity to make decisive
difference in shaping political future of Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur,
however, if expected to consist of simply following US lead" .Latter portionof paper discusses
whether and how US and Europe can work together in improving issues of area. Specific
attention made to problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, Gulf states, Caucasus and Central
Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to" need to contain both proliferation of WMD and
terrorist epidemic." Paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes quicksand
only more dangerous."
Robert Buckman, Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and
the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not
designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions
generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between
"good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief -
connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group
have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe
whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global
issues described may indeed become worse or easier.
Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(Second Edition)
(Houndmills: Macmillan Press 95):-new edition of seminal work on state system surprisingly
retains original 77 text. ItsUN-relevant aim was to determine whether system would/should
survive -and alternatives. Concluded very little change was possible or needed. Interest today
derives from how much of original argumentundercut by extraordinary changes of past 20 years,
particularly constraints on state sovereignty by:globalization of information/ manufacture/
finance; new global imperatives/power centers/vacuums; novel capacities/threats. For firm
support see Hoffmann(op.cit.).
Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read
this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of
author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable -
and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in
global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both
author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources.
Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with
"Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is
becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more
evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a
military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle
against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest
weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast
proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped
worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy.
It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all]
modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes
of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim
leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter
growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or
otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn
does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).
Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global)
public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its
future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a
Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues,
and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less
an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been
destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is
growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al
Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will
be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he
will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not
stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global
Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what
they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state,
in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject
Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little
compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern
political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per
se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda,
Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe
of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years,
only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian
Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key
message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight.
However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still
leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO
"Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows
extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has
no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of
Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic
chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical
difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional
devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO
"If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion
of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to
achieving goals than West is to deterring him".
Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin
Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force".
Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that
history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts
for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is
increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading,
aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a
small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But
truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some
Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims
are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a
continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across
the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an
international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of
the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics.
It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to
ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of
Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public
opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West
is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of
basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West
considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all
the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction,
however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember
that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no
significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke
volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one
of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".
Kenneth D.Bush & E.Fuat Keyman"Identity-Based Conflict: Rethinking Security in a Post-Cold
War World"Global Governance Vol.3/No.3 (Sep-Dec 97). - an essay more theoretical than usual
in this bibliography. However, the main argument is directly relevant to the UN or global handling
of "ethnic" conflicts: i.e. that the "realist" views of security, sovereignty, ethnicity and identity
need re-examination. Many sources others agree.
Kevin M.Cahill edit. Preventive Diplomacy: Stopping Wars Before They Start(New York: Basic
Books 96):-unusually valuable/varied source of information/views on UN issues by 20 top experts
in their fields. While "preventive action" and medical parallel provide unifying theme of sorts,
each(UN/diplomatic/NGO/government/medical, etc. background) provides unique and often
unexpected focus. A good trend!
David Callahan Unwinnable Wars: American Power and Ethnic Conflict(New York: Hill & Wang
97):-while addressed to US leaders, fine analysis/recommendations apply to UN and its active
members. Thesis: recent trend for intra-state ethnic violence will continue - if decrease. All states
have interest in ending - ideally, preventing - such wars. UN must be empowered to play more
effective role, and greater capacity for using standing forces, in managing internal conflicts.
Regional bodies, UN financing, arms-trade control, cooperation with NGOs, and aid to failed
states, must all be strengthened. Diplomacy/intelligence(mainly analysis)must be updated - and
cooperate with UN.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/FP Special Report"China Rising: How the Asian
Colossus Is Changing Our World" Foreign Policy No.146(Jan/Feb 05):-in fall 04, Carnegie
"convened some of world's leading thinkers on China to take stock of political/economic
consequences of country's rapid ascent [www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ChinaProgram]. FP
asked seven of these experts to weigh in on implications of Middle Kingdom's return to
greatness". Jonathan D.Spence"The Once And Future China":-investigates: What of China's
past could be a harbinger for its future? Concludes "These are the memories and the territorial
histories [including Taiwan] that China has to juggle as it embarks on its myriad new challenges
and opportunities". Zbigniew Brzezinski & John J.Mearsheimer engage in Debate on"Clash of
the Titans":-Is China more interested in money than missiles? Will US seek to contain China as
it once contained Soviet Union? ZB and JM go head-to-head on whether these two great powers
are destined to fight it out. Titles of thoughtful sequence: ZB: Make Money, Not War. JM: Better
to Be Godzilla than Bambi; i.e.powerful China is likely to try to push US out of Asia. ZB: Nukes
Change Everything. JM: Showing the US the Door. ZB: US's Staying Power. JM: It's Not a Pretty
Picture. Martin Wolf"Why Is China Growing so Slowly? :-For all its success, China is still not
living up to its potential."Do not think China's rapid growth is either extraordinary or a flash in
the pan. It is neither. Social and political obstacles to China's rapid growth are considerable. But
the opportunity remains enormous. China's economic boom could well be in its middle, not its
end." Ashley J.Tellis"A Grand Chessboard" :-Beijing seeks to reassure the world that it isgentle
giant; it knows that US is casting a wary eye in its direction."Strategy of emphasizing peaceful
ascendancy in word and deed will likely satisfy Chinese interests until it becomes a true rival of
US." Homi Kharas"Lifting All Boats":-Why China's great leap is good for the world's poor. China
has become the center of a virtuous regional trade cycle."For the developing world, it's
something to emulate, not fear." Minx Pei "Dangerous Denials":-China's economy is blinding the
world to its political risks. "The only thing certain about China's... risks is that they are on the
rise." The Economist"China: No Sign of a Landing"29 Jan 05(39-40):-supports FP views by
emphasizing that "China... continues to grow at breakneck speed". National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) had declared that economy grew by 9.5% in 2004,"its fastest clip in eight years", and
probably an accurate or low figure for a change. NBS in fact "put a brave face on the figure,
attributing quickened pace of growth... to stronger than expected performances in agriculture
and services - the parts of economy China still wants to boost... Encouragingly, government's
cooling measures... do not appear to have affected consumer spending. Growth of retail sales
of consumer goods remained strong during the year...This offers some hope investment can be
curbed without a sharp slowdown... First results from the census are due in August, and
complete data by the middle of next year. Whatever they reveal, it is unlikely to be that China has
been wildly overstating its GDP growth figures". Jim Yardley "Fearing Future, China Starts to
Give Girls Their Due"New York Times 31 Jan 05:-reports on an important cultural concern.
"Government credits [so-called one-child] policy for sharply slowing China's population growth
[300m less], but critics say it is a major reason many families now use prenatal scans and
selective abortions to make certain their child is a boy. [Hence] reversing birth imbalance
between boys and girls cannot be postponed... Nationwide ratio has reached 119 boys for every
100 girls. [I]n a few decades China could have up to 40m bachelors unable to find mates.
[Reason:] most Chinese parents, particularly in rural areas, prefer sons. [A]ll parents, worried
about their old age, know Chinese tradition holds that a son must care for his parents. A
daughter, on the other hand, marries into husband's family. In countryside, where no real social
safety net, a son is considered equivalent of pension. [Recently,] fiscal incentives [are] intended
to give monetary value to girls and, by doing so, reduce incentive to abort them. Even so, limited
scope of program has reduced its impact. [Also,] attitudes hard to change in male-dominated
China. Joseph Kahn "China to Cut Taxes on Farmers and Raise Their Subsidies"NYT 03 Feb
05:-"Chinese officials are promising to reduce taxes on peasants and increase farm subsidies
to improve the lot of 800m rural residents left behind in the fast-growing economy. Measures...
are intended to slow the surging wealth gap between urban/rural residents, major source of
social discontent and perhaps the greatest challenge for governing Communist Party... Last year
average urban income 3.2 times as much as average rural income, one of the biggest urban-rural
divides in the world. [G]overnment has injected hundreds of billions of dollars into developing
urban coastal areas while maintaining tight controls over farmland and peasants to ensure
steady supplies of grain and surplus labor. [O]ne potential key lies in creating a market for
farmland that resembles the one for urban land".
Ted Galen Carpenter edit. Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention
(Washington: Cato Institute 97):-Cato aims to further "traditional American principles of limited
government, individual liberty, and peace." Libertarian view inclines it to oppose
multilateralism(it inter alia limits US global freedom of action)and all constraints on free
enterprise. Topics: UN in Perspective; Peacemaker-Peacekeeper; Bureaucracy-Funding-
Corruption; Social and Environmental Agenda; Economic Development Role. 18 essays clearly
stress Cato views. Only five sympathetic to UN aims/activities; 10 or so reasonable, even if bit
selective or broad, in criticism. Last deliberately distort, and in their narrow-minded, selfish
jingoism, exhibit true "delusions of grandeur": John Bolton: " [Clinton] forgot that UN was
instrument to be used to advance America's foreign policy interests, not to engage in
international social work..." (51; his emphasis)! Provides rationales of many US anti-UN views.
Ashton Carter, John Deutch & Philip Zelikow "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger"
Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6(Nov/Dec 98):-distillation of Universities Study Group on Catastrophic
Terrorism reportpublished by Stanford University. Version will also appear as chapter in
forthcoming Preventive Defense: An American Security Strategy for the 21st Century by Ashton
Carter and William Perry. All(distinguished) members of Study Group are listed in footnote.
Conclusions are: terrorism using weapons of mass destruction has moved "from far-fetched
horror to a contingency that could happen next month" ; particularly with biological weapons,
"technology is more accessible, and society is more vulnerable" ; elaborate "networks have
developed among organized criminals, drug traffickers, arms dealers, money launderers,
[thus]creating infrastructure for[such]terrorism around the world" . While recommendations
directed mainly at urgent US action, all fall into universal categories: intelligence/warning;
prevention/deterrence;management of crises and consequences. All needs international/global
cooperation.
Thomas Carters, "Democracy Without Illusions" Foreign Affairs Vol.76/No.1(Jan/Feb 97):-notes
that recent hopes for almost universal establishment of democratic governments have been
disappointed by revival in many states of authoritarian regimes or practices. Yet some
retrenchment does not eliminate underlying trend of progress.
Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped
Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of
globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics,
economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates
to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations
across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.)
Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all
unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that
in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we
think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the
borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest
of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament
of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are
in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our
fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of
accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the
past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities
...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our
destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly
integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".
Michael Chertoff"The Responsibility to Contain: Protecting Sovereignty Under International Law"
(130-147) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"A new framework of
international law that confronts modern threats is long overdue. If it is to revive the legitimacy
of international law, this order must be predicated on a new principle, under which individual
states assume reciprocal obligations to contain transnational threats emerging from within their
borders". Emphasized extracts:"Those who challenge the relevance of consent often treat
'sovereignty' as a pejorative term or an antiquated concept". "If US withdraws from international
legal institutions to protect its national interests, everyone will lose". "The most serious threats
to sovereignty today do not necessarily come from the official acts of other states". "International
law has no business interfering with the US domestic system of justice". "States can no longer
hide behind seventeenth-century concepts of sovereignty in world of twenty-first-century
dangers". Chertoff: US Secretary of Homeland Security. Views expressed are his own.
Jarat Chopra edit."Special Issue on Peace-Maintenance Operations"Global Governance
Vol.4/No.1 (Jan/Mar 98):- since Cold War end, UN has undertaken many peace-related operations
of new complexity and scale(often called second-generation). Several (Bosnia/ Rwanda/ Somalia)
deficient for multiple reasons(mandate/management/resources). Papers analyse peace-
maintenance system where UN exercises(some)political authority to harmonize diplomatic/
humanitarian/military/other civil aspects of operations if local systems fail.Authority-Knight;
Administration-Morphet; Humanitarianism-Donini; Law-Plunkett; Military-Cousens; Accepting
Authority-Adibe.
Jarat Chopra"United Nations Peace-Maintenance"(312-40)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United
Nations at Work (Westport: Praeger 98):-more uniform/all-embracing case for idea of flexible UN
multi-functional governance role than made in Global Governance(Jan/Mar 98)(Ibid.).Hedges
"failed states" / "trusteeships" as politically sensitive terms, although many analysts suspect
these may be toughest UN "peace/order/good government" challenges for 21st century,
particularly in Africa. Surveys history of all UN "peace" operations, and concludes its greatest
current problems weak orchestration of complex emergencies, and inclination to act as mediator
when creation of order is first priority, followed by nurturing of stable democratic society.
Kosovo(which post-dates writing)would seem more what Chopra has in mind, though with full
UN political authority.
Jarat Chopra & Tanja Hohe "Participatory Intervention" Global Governance Vol.10/No.3(Jul-Sep
04):-both authors served in UN Transitional Administration in East Timor(UNTAET)and offer
thoughtful ideas abouthow UN should optimally build/modify political systems in troubled/new
states - a responsibility that isgrowing in UN numbers and importance globally. Experience with
administration intervention in Cambodia, East Timor, Kosovo, Namibia, and Somalia has been
imperfect, but educational as to how future responsibilities could be improved by more carefully
considering what actually constitute the "front lines" - "the level of local administration. Here,
Western-style paradigm of state building, which ispreoccupied with forming a national executive,
legislature, and judiciary, confronts resilient traditional structures, socially legitimate
powerholders, abusive warlords out to win, or coping mechanisms communities rely on under
conflict conditions. Options for establishment or reconstruction of governing institutions seem
stark: either reinforce status quo and build on it, further empowering the already strong;or
replace altogether what exists with new administrative order. But there may be middle road."
Essay analyses latter.
Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and
Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special
political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and
more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy
in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular
minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She
concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and
post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope
for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to
local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if
these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable
- thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted
head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing
field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around
them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global
markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that
market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous
ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges
exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth
in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant
Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism
and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of
Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant
Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market
Democracy.
Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr
99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly -
changing role(s),(un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in
history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity,
swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in
Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on
solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies
equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether
it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has
weapons, training, cohesion to handle.
Walter J. Clemens, Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era
of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text
on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR
"Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World
Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay
to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares?
(7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order:
Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and
Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations:
West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second
World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe
and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham orRevolution?
(17)Alternative Futures.
David S.Cloud"Navy to Expand Fleet With New Enemies in Mind"New York Times 03 Dec
05:-"[US] Navy wants to increase its fleet.., reversing years of decline in naval shipbuilding and
adding dozens of warships designed to defeat emerging adversaries, [US] officials say... While
increasing fleet size is popular [in] Congress, plan faces various obstacles, including questions
about whether affordable...andwhether mix of vessels is suitable to deal with emerging threats,
like China's expanding navy... [F]leet reached its cold war peak... in 1987 and... steadily shrinking
since then... 'Navy appears... grappling withneed to balance funding for supporting its role in the
global war on terrorism against those for meetinga potential challenge from modernized Chinese
maritime military forces' , said a naval analyst. [P]lan calls for building 55 small, fast vessels
called littoral combat ships, which are being designed to allow Navy to operate in shallow coastal
areas where mines and terrorist bombings are a growing threat. Costing less than $300m, littoral
combat ship is relatively inexpensive... Choices have led some analysts tosuggest Navy is
de-emphasizing threat from China, at least in early stages of the shipbuilding plan.Beijing's
investment in submarines, cruise missiles and other weapon systems expected to pose major
threat to US warships for at least a decade... 'This is not a fleet that is being oriented to Chinese
threat', said analyst. 'It's being oriented around irregular warfare/stability operations/dealing with
rogue states' .
Charles Clover, "Dreams of the Eurasian Heartland" Foreign Affairs Vol.78/No.2(Mar/Apr
99):-notes fast-growing and powerful philosophical idea used by Russian Communist Party(chair
Gennadi Zyuganov: author The Geography of Victory)and radical right parties, resuscitates
"geopolitics" of Halford Mackinder. Contends "earth forever divided into two naturally
antagonistic spheres: land and sea.[N]atural repository for global land power
Eurasian'heartland'...territory of former Russian empire. Whoever controls heartland...forever
seek to dominate Eurasian landmass and ultimately world" .With development of
airpower/ICBMs/strategic downgrading of landmass, was not very credible even during Cold War,
but having lost empire/self-esteem, Eurasianism attracts many Russians(Primakov?).
Roger A.Coate edit.U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations(New York: Twentieth Century
Fund 94):-fine essays on UN political/organizational problems and realistic proposals retain
global value sinceissues remain relevant and/or reforms underway. Spiers proposes
administrative/structural/peacemaking/ financial reforms. Coate urges
inter-agency/intra-government coordination of UN system. Blechman looks at new intra-state
conflict/ preventive action challenges. Graham surveys IAEA proliferation/enforcement needs.
Abram urges enforcement of human rights/humanitarian law. Loescher examines new
scale/originsof refugees/displaced persons. Gordenker discusses WHO role/problems.
Sessions/Steever explore challenges/constraints on Commission on Sustainable Development.
Leonard picks UN priorities: security/ economy/environment/humanitarian action/human rights.
Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr
06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to
becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet".
Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative
stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new
way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo
Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide
11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the
continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that]
geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for
many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now
intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to
foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems.
That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and
historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty.
[F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any
time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's]
core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not
enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is
rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC
economic]prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it]
did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel
let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to
about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly
infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims:
growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:.
severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in
Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians
discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go
beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance,
human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New
Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time
for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw
its weight around for these causes".
Richard Cockett "Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"Economist 08 Apr
06(5-6):-Summary of major section on government's HIV/AIDS policy only: "[G]reatest weakness
of [ruling African National Congress] ANC's top-down system is that party is inclined to dismiss
ideas from outside its own bureaucracy. Most obvious example has been [President Thabo]
Mbeki's well-documented response to the HIV/AIDS crisis. For a long time [op.cit.] Mbeki stood
out against the combined weight of world medical opinion on the causes/treatment of AIDS, and
particularly on use of anti-retroviral drugs. Main group campaigning for their use, Treatment
Action Campaign, was made up almost entirely of ANC members, and Mbeki seems to have
resisted their arguments as much because he felt they werebreaking party ranks as for their
prescriptions on AIDS (with which he disagreed). In 2003, government eventually caved in to
domestic/ international pressure and gracelessly introduced a comprehensivemanagement
regime involving anti-retroviral drugs to combat HIV/AIDS. May have signalled change of policy
by government, but not, it seems, much of a change of mind. In a country with 5.2m
HIV-positivepeople on record, the largest number in the world, there is almost no public
acknowledgement of theproblem or public education about it. [M]inisters (with a few honourable
exceptions) still seem loth to talk about the illness, which kills about 900 people a day and
undermines much else the country is trying to achieve. It handicaps the army, with an infection
rate said to be up to 40%, breaks up families and killsmuch-needed teachers. Chillingly, Actuarial
Society of South Africa estimates that it will be another ten years before the pandemic peaks.
Tardiness with which government responded to HIV/AIDS crisis,together with Mbeki's own
strange take on underlying science, has tarnished own reputation, as well as that of ANC. Critics
argue government remains ambivalent about its commitment to fighting pandemic with
anti-retroviral drugs. Government's plan to combat HIV/AIDS may be model of its kind in intent,
but it is already falling behind. By end of 2006 about 225,000 patients will be receiving
anti-retroviral drugs, well short of the plan's target of 380,000 by 2005-06. Mbeki's unorthodox
views on causes/cures of HIV/AIDS undoubtedly have something to do with his agenda of finding
African solutions (rather than expensive Western ones) to Africa's problems... But AIDS saga,
together withANC's unresponsiveness to its own supporters and its failure to deliver on its
promises, has diminished aura of moral authority it has earned";
Roberta Cohen & Francis M. Deng Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal
Displacement(Washington: Brookings 98):-thorough, containing many sound proposals. Written
by Deng as UNSG representative on internally displaced persons(IDP).Numbers are big and
growing(20-25m IDPs vs 20m refugees)affecting multiple UN roles (humanitarian/human
rights/development/peace/sovereignty)and bodies(DMTS/ ECHA/ ERC/ IOM/ OCHA/
ODIHR(UNHQ)/ UNDP/ UNHCR/ UNICEF/ UNIFEM/ UNRWA/ WFP/ WHO).Sections : Global View;
Legal issues; Institutional issues; NGOs (Red Cross/Voluntary Agencies Council/etc.); Regional
Groups; some Strategies/Proposals; IDP Guiding Principles. For excellent summary of book by
authors see "Exodus Within Borders" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.4(Jul/Aug 98).
Roberta Cohen "The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement: An Innovation in International
Standard Setting" Global Governance Vol.10/No.4(Oct.-Dec. 04):-includes how and why global
concern about internally displaced persons(IDP) has developed, particularly since Cohen/Deng
source of 98(op.cit.). "It was not until 90s that absence of international system for IDPs began
to be noticed and more traditional notions of sovereignty questioned. One of vivid examples of
change in attitude was new set of international standards to protect persons forcibly uprooted
in their own countries - Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Introduced into UN
Commission on Human Rights 98, they set forth rights of IDPs and obligations of
governments/international community toward these populations...GPs recast sovereignty as form
of national responsibility toward one's vulnerable populations with role provided forinternational
community when governments did not have capacity/willingness to protect their
uprootedpopulations. Although not legally binding instrument like treaty, GPs quickly gained
substantial internationalacceptance/authority.[Article analyses] origin/development of GPs,
reasons for growing international usage,validity of reservations about them, and question
whether process that developed them truly constitutes turning point in standard setting
reflecting greater role for NGO community in developing internationalnorms of conduct for
states."
Isobel Coleman "The Payoff From Women's Rights" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun
04):-three points strongly: women's full rights critically important not just for women alone but
for entire societies; most negative women's areas of world are both curbed by old-style
religion/culture and blocked economically;US can and must do more to improve this. First point:"
Over past decade, significant research has demonstrated what many have known for long time:
women critical to economic development, active civil society, good governance -especially in
developing countries. Focus on women often best way reduce birth rates/child mortality; improve
health/nutrition/education; stem spread of HIV/AIDS; build robust/self- sustaining community
organizations; encourage grassroots democracy... Women's status advanced in many countries:
gender gaps in infant mortality rates/calorie consumption/school enrollment/literacylevels/access
to health care/political participation narrowed steadily. These... benefited society at
large/improving living standards/increasing social entrepreneurship/ attracting foreign direct
investment." Second point: "[S]ignificant gender disparities continues to exist, and in some
cases to grow, in three regions: southern Asia, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa. [C]onstraints
on women living in areas [are] conservative/ patriarchal practices, often reinforced by religious
values." Third point: "[Deep tensions] between religious extremists and those with more
moderate/progressive views...evident in Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Afghanistan...to lesser extent Nigeria/
Pakistan/ Indonesia. Resolution critical to progress...,for those that suppress women likely to
stagnate economically/fail to develop democratic institutions/become more prone to extremism."
So urges US to intensify women's rights much more.
Isobel Coleman"The Better Half: Helping Women Help the World"(126-130) Foreign Affairs
Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Nicholas D.Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn: Half the
Sky:Oppression Into Opportunity for Women Worldwide (Knopf 09). Official summary:"Efforts
to provide the world's women with economic and political power are more than just a worthy
moral crusade: they represent perhaps the best strategy for pursuing development and stability
across the globe. [The $27.95 HC 320pp. book] is an insightful and inspiring call to action". [The
review is very persuasive.] Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women
and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. Her book Paradise Beneath Her
Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East to be published by Random House this
spring. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at
www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.
Isobel Coleman"The Global Glass Ceiling: Why Empowering Women Is Good for Business"(13-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.3 (May/Jun 10):-official summary:"It is now accepted wisdom that
empowering women in the developing world is a catalyst for achieving a range of international
development goals. It is time for multinational corporations to get on board: funding education
for girls and incorporating women-owned firms into their supply chains are good for business".
Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy
Program at Council on Foreign Relations. She is author of Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How
Women Are Transforming the Middle East (Random House:HC$26.00). For annotated guide to
this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at
www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.
Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done
About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's
poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas.
Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very
different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called
'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account
for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries
so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing
countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found
in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global
development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an
impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world
to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions,
international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes..
To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies
but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.
Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign
Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the
poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require
ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away
with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and
greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and
Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.
Commonwealth Consultative Group on the Special Needs of Small States, Vulnerability: Small
States in Global Society(London: Commonwealth Secretariat Pubs. 85):-UN now includes many
small and indeed micro-states(latter having populations of less than 100,000).Almost any UN
additions likely to be small in population and/or power, particularly if "Wilsonian" dictum strictly
followed: that all "nations" have right to self-determination. Report by global group of senior
personalities one of few authoritative sources focusing specifically on particular security
problems of such states. It makes almost 80 realistic recommendations; large number involving
UN System.
Walker Connor, Ethnonationalism: The Quest for Understanding (Princeton: Princeton University
Press 94):-a collection of nine essays by one of the leading experts on the subject. Its main value
is the careful analysis of the origins, characteristics and under-estimated strengths of ethnicity
and nationalism. It warns of the irrational, emotional elements, exploited even by Marxists.
Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs
Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism,
Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of
review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the
business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future".
Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Robert Cooper, The Post-Modern State and the World Order(London: Demos 96):-thoughtful
essay, praised and summarized in The Economist 20 Dec 97(41-43). Argument is built by dividing
all states into threecategories: those characterised by chaos(pre-modern); those acting in
manner of traditionalnationalistic(modern); and those with less concern about borders than
about mutual inspection and interference(post-modern). Last type is mostly in Europe and North
America; Russia straddles all.
Jeff J. Corntassel and Tomas Hopkins Primeau, "The Paradox of Indigenous Identity: A
Levels-of-Analysis Approach" in Global Governance Vol.4/No.2 (Apr-Jun 1998):-essay examines
an issue with UN implications through the UN Working Group on Indigenous Populations. The
group is drafting a Universal Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples for the UNGA. The
draft claims the right to self-identification, which the essay defines as: "the right of both
individuals and groups to identify...their indigenous identity independent of authorization by
any...institution" (139). The control of indigenous identity exists at the state, group and individual
levels; but free self-identification at the global level (through the WGIP draft) allows for a high
potential number of "free-riders". The indigenous peoples must regulate this through their own
global body, preferably outside the UN.
Daryl Copeland, "Globalization, Enterprise, and Governance: What Does a Changing World Mean
for Canada?" in International Journal Vol.LIII/No.1(Winter 1997-8):-article takes a worldwide
approach despite its title. This succinct but broad survey of globalization covers both its
rationale and effects: borderless business-first priorities; technological shrinking of time, space,
and ignorance; job insecurity and divergence; cultural convergence and ethnic reaction;
structural standardization; uncontrolled finance. The author fears the end of the welfare state.
Mark S. Worrall, "State and Society in the Age of the Global Economy" in Vol.LIII/No.3 (Summer
1998) offers a friendly but more optimistic response. In his view" the state has been forced to
share its powers with suprastate, substate, and nonstate actors" (579). While "not the driving
force behind globalization...[the state] remains the single possible architect of the post-cold war
order" (580). This in turn must include international institutions capable of addressing the new
global issues. Two good analyses.
Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25
Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's
future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction
is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it
stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU
membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist
countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish
Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's
application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to
Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different
ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on
using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is
much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of
purpose/confidence in itself."
Jocelyn Coulon, Soldiers of Diplomacy: The United Nations, Peacekeeping, and the New World
Order(Toronto: Univ.of Toronto Press 98):-translated from French(Les Casques Bleus)
considerably more thanvivid journalist account of visits to various UN peacekeeping forces at
crucial historic times: Coulon one of Canada's best-informed, often very thoughtful, military
commentators. First gives brief history of origin and first 30 years of peacekeeping. Then
concentrates on UN "golden age" immediately after Cold War ended, and tells how and why
explosion of unprepared-for activities overstretched system and created negativeover-reaction.
Operations described, in terms of both personal narrative and political machinations, are those
in Lebanon, Cambodia, Western Sahara, Somalia, and Bosnia. Final chapters address UN's
problems/limitations - and opportunities.
Robert W. Cox, Review of Susan Strange, The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the
World Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 96)(op.cit.)in International Journal
Vol.LII/No.2(Spring 97):-favourable report on book of great relevance to future of global society
and relations. Cox sees Strange's aim less as trying to describe growing limitations on state
power than as identifying what constitutes power, where and why it is shifting, and implications.
[Strange lays particular emphasis on power of global finances.] For Cox's own, related,
theoretical views see: Production, Power, and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of
History(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 87)Theme and Part 1(1-15); Part 2(105-267).
Mihailo Crnobrnja The Yugoslav Drama(Montreal: McGill-Queen's Univ. Press 94):-former
Yugoslav ambassador takes well-informed/realistic, but also constructive, look at contemporary
trauma in Balkans. Finding many causes/villains, he emphasises common needs/interests of
area. Urges international community, particularly West, to play active and continuing role to
reconstruct/integrate area, downgrading importance of borders and raising mutual interests.
Chester A.Crocker and Fen Osler Hampson, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses
to International Conflict(Washington: US Institute of Peace Press 96):-42 expert/practical
essays(675pp)offeringnew facts/thinking regarding global challenges, and how resulting
conflicts might be met(e.g. by UN).Challenges include: many weak(or failed)states; ethnic
conflicts; religio-cultural militancy; populationpressures; resource crises(shortages,
disputes);global competition; radical military technology(Adams op.cit.);mega-terrorism. Stress
on preventive action.
Barbara Crossette, "U. N. Council in Rare Accord: Fight Terrorism" New York Times 20 Oct
99:-UN has long been unable to reach agreement over global action on terrorism, a critical lacuna
given need to eliminate all sanctuary. "One state's terrorist is another's freedom-fighter" . Now
decline -or at least public denial- of state support for terrorist groups, and experience of many
with insurgents they brand terrorist, appears to have broken impasse. On 19 Oct Security Council
unanimously passed resolution(Russian SC President deemed it "anti-terrorist manifesto" )
regarding growing dangers of international terrorism. Reportedly it calls for "better cooperation
and sharing of information among nations and[agencies, and]asks governments to prevent
terrorist groups from raising money to deny such groups safe haven and to be vigilant against
false refugee claims made by terrorists seeking new bases" .
Barbara Crossette, "Europe Stares at a Future Built by Immigrants" New York Times 2 Jan
00:-probes effects of a decreasing EU population. "To survive economically and socially, Europe
may have to...change its racial and ethnic face through mass migration of labor from
around[world, finding]itself debating movestoward a social structure that looks more
like[North]America's" . In latter" whole idea of citizenship is thatanyone from anywhere can
become naturalized" . In Europe, citizenship is usually" still linked to ethnic heritage, or at least
to language and culture" . UN experts suggest logical response to declining size is "replacement
migration" . To maintain population size, EU would need 35m immigrants by 2025; to maintain
pensioner-worker ratio would require 135m. Surplus(skilled) Third World labor is plentiful; so is
North American competition for it. Dilemma for Europe(and Japan)is that such mass immigration
would at least change, and probably diversify, culture of receiving country. Economist 06 May
"Europe's Immigrants: A Continent on the Move" (25-7)looks at situation from economic rather
than sociological point of view. Essay sees political problems, but is more sanguine. Western
Europe has been absorbing migrants since WWII. Trend now is for seasonal migration, and new
source is East Europe.
Barbara Crossette "U.N. Studies How Refugees Qualify to Get Assistance" New York Times 14
Jan 00:-UNSC debate on what Roberta Cohen(Masses in Flight op.cit.)called "absurdity"
;Brookings: "one of most pressing humanitarian, human rights and political issues now facing
global community" . Most of 20m+ internally displaced persons(IDPs) ineligible to receive UN
assistance simply because not(yet)crossed border out of own country. Many forced from
homes(often by own governments who prefer world excluded);most in more danger/distress than
those able to reach border; some interspersed with/indistinguishable from "recognized"
refugees; often far outnumber latter(Angola: 1-2m to 370,000).UNHCR Ogata stressed how
inherent IDP geographic/political/security problems made worse byWWII-vintage definitions.
UNSC supportive of new rules/arrangements for new conditions, with UNHCR in charge.
Barbara Crossette "Smuggling of Iraqi Oil Is Rising, U.N. Is Told" New York Times 24 Mar 00;
"Annan Exhorts U.N. Council on 'Oil for Food'for Iraqis" 25 Mar 00; "Security Council Votes to
Let Iraq Buy Oil Gear" 01 Apr 00; The Economist 12 Feb 00 "One Man's Joy in Iraq"
(41-2):-summaries ignore" current events" unless text has permanent/long-term significance. UN
sanctions against Iraq in 00 illustrate extremely well problems raised by chronic sanctions
issues, and how they could influence both Iraq and US by 01-03. Among those either inherent
from start and/or critical by 00:(1)scale/variety/severity of sanctions imposed(most ambitious UN
pressure applied);(2)(dis)unity of SC members over sanctions' aims/targets/costs/means(P5
increasingly split);(3)authority/popularity/mettle/world economic integration/vulnerability/value
of target regime(Saddam runs tight political/media system, is personally at threat but tough about
others, and holds pretty strong economic hand);(4)strategic importance of target state/its
people/friends/resources/military capacity/philosophy(Iraq both very strong/very weak).
David Crystal, English as a Global Language(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press
97):-carefully-worded description of English'present status, controversies and prospects by a
renowned linguistics expert. While noting it is spoken well by about 1.5 billion people and is
expanding rapidly in use/influence, author neither sees nor advocates English becoming more
than essential, common second language for most of world. For more on English'history and
geographical variations, see Robert McCrum, William Cran, and Robert MacNeil, The Story of
English(New York: E. Sifton-Viking 86). Highly informative but lighter look at English, warts and
all, is Bill Bryson, Mother Tongue: The English Language(London: Penguin 91). Economist 24
Feb 01 "The English Language Predominates: ...Still on the March" (50-1)reports survey of
linguistic skills of EU citizens after both expanding EU and globalization have increasingly
demanded and rewarded inter-cultural communication. It found that 56% claimed to be able to
speak English(16% use it as their mother tongue),followed by French at 34% and German at 33%.
Moreover 69% felt that "everyone should speak English" (including 66% of French; only 70% of
outstandingly monolingual British!). Companion article onGermany's threat from creeping
Denglisch cites German culture minister: "[G]lobalized world needs an international language.
In business, science and technology, English already serves that function; to oppose its use is
to deny reality" . Languages generally/how learned, by Ingram or Pinker(op.cit.)note a similar
trend.
Ivo H. Daalder and Michael E. O'Hanlon, "Unlearning the Lessons of Kosovo" Foreign Policy
No.116(Fall 99):-test of assumptions to see if Kosovo sets precedent for humanitarian
interventions. NATO Won: air campaign was clearly NATO success in gaining more than
originally asked, but only after Serbs had uprooted 1.3m Kosovars. Airpower Alone Worked:
while" probably most successful use of strategic bombardmentin history of warfare" , vulnerable
Serb infrastructure, 40,000 KLA troops, credible NATO invasion, were also key. Powell Doctrine
is Dead: NATO power was not "decisive" initially, but grew until it was so. UN Is Nice, But Not
Necessary: UN still cannot run military operations itself, but new UNSC unity helped Serbs
concede, and UN political mandate unprecedented. In Military Terms, Europe Is a Dwarf: US ran
war, butEurope now running peace/reordering its armed forces. Lessons: such operations not
cheap/easy; US must still lead and be willing to commit troops.
Lori Fisler Damrosch edit. Enforcing Restraint: Collective Intervention in Internal Conflicts(New
York: Council on Foreign Relations Press 93):-not just quickly out-of-date reports on six cases
of internal conflictstudied, i.e. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Haiti, Liberia, Somalia, and Cambodia. Each
expert tries to draw from themlessons of more general value. Hence they can be used as
background or source material for other studies of these cases.
Donald C.F.Daniel, Bradd C.Hayes & Chantal deJonge Oudraat, Coercive Inducement and the
Containment of International Crises(Washington:US Institute of Peace Press 99):-novel look at
various multilateral peace operations since 88. Effort is valuable as new diversity/complexity/
cost brought confused or bad mandates/structures/ resources/motives/aims/hopes. Worse, many
overwhelmed(so undermined)UN system both unprepared and unable to handle them. Address
many operations between traditional peacekeeping(firm ceasefire/both sides' consent/fully
impartial/minimum self-defense)and military enforcement. Middle option termed Coercive
Inducement(CI): "judicious resort to coercive diplomacy or forceful persuasion by international
community in order to implement community norms or mandates vis-a-vis all parties to particular
crisis." UN operations in Bosnia, Somalia, Rwanda, Haiti analysed to show effects of abiding by
or contravening principles of CI:(1)Inducement Contingents(ICs)function under aegis of leading
state or coalition in operations endorsed by UN.(2)CI personnel represent both moral authority
andcredible force.(3)While aspiring for as much universality as possible, ICs primarily reflect
capabilities that make for immediately effective crisis responses.(4)IC personnel assume no more
than provisional consent, so act to impose community will on recalcitrant parties.(5)While not
intending to harm anyone's interests, IC must implement mandates even when doing so
prejudices interests of one or more party.(6)Force may be used for other than self-defense, but
should not exceed minimum to cause desired behaviour.(7)IC mustplan to minimize casualties
while preparing for worst. End offers operational guidelines when following CI principles, and
circumstances that make it essential.
Gustav Daniker, The Guardian Soldier: On the Nature and Use of Future Armed Forces(Geneva:
United Nations UNIDIR 36 95):-thoughtful analysis by Swiss military strategist of effects and
opportunities brought by end of Cold War. He sees security as multi-faceted, long-sighted, and
aimed at stability - not destruction.
Richard DawkinsThe God Delusion(New York: Houghton Mifflin 06):-as with 06 Dennett/previous
Dawkinsitems, many books related to the controversial global roles of science vs religion are
now becomingincreasingly critical - and influential(?). They may ease or contribute to serious
violence if the growing factual issues are not compromised in some manner. Dawkins is not only
'a preeminent scientist'but offers an extraordinarily thorough critique of mainly Christian/Jewish
theology as supported by the Bibleand fundamentalism. Press outline includes:"With rigor and
wit, Dawkins examines God in all his forms. [E]viscerates the major arguments for religion and
demonstrates the supreme improbability of a supreme being. [S]hows how religion fuels
war/foments bigotry/abuses children, buttressing his points withhistorical/contemporary
evidence. [M]akes compelling case: belief in God not just wrong but potentially deadly. [A]lso
offers exhilarating insight into advantages of atheism to the individual and society, not least of
which is clearer/ truer appreciation of the universe's wonders than any faith could ever master".
Highlight(282):"Fundamentalists know they are right because they have read the truth in a holy
book and they know, in advance, that nothing will budge them from their belief. [I]f evidence
seems to contradict it, the evidence must be thrown out, not the book. By contrast, what I, as
scientist, believe(for example,evolution)I believe...because I have studied the evidence. It really
is a very different matter. Books about evolution...believed because they present overwhelming
quantities of mutually buttressed evidence. In principle, any reader can check evidence. When
science book wrong, somebody eventually discoversthe mistake/it is corrected in subsequent
books. That conspicuously doesn't happen with holy books".
Tobias Debiel, "Strengthening the UN as an Effective World Authority: Cooperative Security
Versus Hegemonic Crisis Management" Global Governance Vol.6/No.1(Jan/Mar 00):-neither as
academic or utopian as title might suggest, looks at very practical/pertinent issue of what UN can
and should do to be more effective in peacekeeping and crisis prevention roles. Such roles
increase in importance as consensus develops: national sovereignty may be curtailed in
exceptional humanitarian circumstances. Argued: world, unready for legally-bound
multilateralism, and widely opposed to superpower-driven coercion,must turn to cooperative
security - willing collaboration of all types of bodies: interest groups/relevantstates/regional
organizations. Core element UN must create "standby capacities for early warning/conflict
management/peacekeeping; reform of non-military sanctions instrument; and speedy institution
ofinternational criminal court" (39).
Louis A.Delvoie "The Kosovo War: A Long Catalogue of Losers" Behind the Headlines
Vol.57/No.2,3 (Winter/Spring 00):-NATO's 99 air campaign against rump "Yugoslavia" has had
many supporters andcritics. Former mainly argue that it succeeded in noble humanitarian aim
of relieving Kosovars from Serbian oppression; latter argue force was itself wrong and/or stress
absence of UN imprimatur. Author seeks those involved that were net losers in conflict. NATO:
hurt its image/ reputation/future effectivenessby launching war of aggression, ending its
credibility as purely defensive alliance; United Nations:sidelined/marginalized, lost any post-Gulf
hope it might play its Charter peace/ security role; OSCE: reputation/ credibility suffered when
its 1,300 Observers had to withdraw hastily when many of OSCEmembers attacked state where
they were to keep peace; Kosovars: NATO's "beneficiaries" sufferedhundreds dead and
thousands displaced before bombing, but thousands dead, hundreds of thousandsdisplaced
once two deterrents(OSCE plus threat to bomb)ceased to restrain; Serbs: suffered "collateral"
casualties, food/water shortages as infrastructure hit, and vast long-term economic loss from
bombing/ sanctions; Balkan Stability: lost in refugee floods, revived ethnic tension; "New
European Security Architecture" :Russia reacted with anger/ condemnation, needing much
time/effort to defuse; US: lost instature/credibility e.g. through sudden change in KLA image,
public policy it would not risk ground troops, ominous intelligence error on Chinese Embassy;
Western Governments: caught with double standards over Serbia/Chechnya. Many lessons to
be learned.
Francis M. Deng et al. Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa(Washington:
Brookings 96):- conclusion of 7-volume project to help governments/international community
deal with conflicts in least stable continent(Reader op.cit.).Probes African states' responsibility:
balance sovereignty sanctity against transborder political/economic/moral relevance of human
rights violations/internal violence. Project concludes UN has unique role to play in Africa as both
mediator and healer.
Daniel C.Dennett Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon (New York: Viking
06):-very carefully drafted by professor of philosophy, Tufts University and well-known author
(particularly Darwin's Dangerous Idea 95), aims of 450p volume are the questions:"Is Religion
Good For You? Should It Be the Basis for Morality?". Accurate, if full, summary of the book's aim
on its dust-cover:"For many people around the world - perhaps most people - there is nothing
more important than religion. It has comfortedthem in their suffering, become an integral part
of their marriages and child rearing, and encouragedgroup cooperation to achieve ends both
magnificant and terrible. Religion plays such a powerful rolein the world that we should try to
understand it in all its complexities, but most adherants bristle at anyone who wants to
investigate their practices and beliefs in a scientific manner. In this daring and important new
book, Daniel C.Dennett seeks to uncover the origins of this remarkable family of phenomena that
mean so much to so many people, and to discuss why - and how - they have commanded
allegiance, becomeso potent, and shaped so many lives so strongly. Where does our devotion
to God come from? Wherewas the psychological and cultural soil in which religion first took
root? Is it an addiction or a genuine needthat we should try to preserve at any cost? Is it the
product of blind evolutionary instinct or rational choice? Do those who believe in God have good
reasons for doing so? Are people right to say that the best way to live a good life is through
religion? In a spirited argument that ranges widely through biology,history, and psychology,
Dennett explores how religion evolved from folk beliefs and how these early 'wild'strains of
religion were then carefully and consciously domesticated. As the motives of religion'sstewards
entered this process, such features as secrecy and systematic invulnerability to disproof
emerged. Dennett contends that this protective veneer of mystery needs to be removed so that
religions can be better understood, and - most important - he argues that the widespread
assumption that they arethe necessary foundation of morality can no longer be supported.
Breaking the Spell is not an antireligiousscreed but rather an eye-opening exploration of the role
that religious belief plays in our lives, ourinteractions, and our country. With the conflict between
science and 'intelligent design'becoming ever more impassioned, Dennett has written a calmly
reasoned and timely book that will be read and debated by believers and nonbelievers alike".
J. Raymond DePaulo and Leslie Alan Horvitz, Understanding Depression: What We Know and
What You Can Do About It(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2002):-UN's World Health Organization
has stressed that mental illness is an overwhelming global crisis against multiple humans' active
lives and even survival. WHO's "study estimates that in the coming decade depression will rank
as the number two leading cause of death in the world; most of those deaths will be primarily in
the form of suicide and secondly from coronary artery disease" (133). The book, by one of the
world's foremost authorities on depression, and coming from the Johns Hopkins University
School of Medicine in the US, concentrates on the technically improving but widely undeveloped
situation in that country. However, the clearly written and up-to-date text is among the most
advanced and ideally relevant anywhere on earth. It includes a thorough, accessible guide to
depression's nature, causes, effects, and treatments, and also provides essential advice tothose
responsible for handling those suffering. Many ethnic groups must do more.
Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy
Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of
liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to
prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging
autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized
extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and
capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion
has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across
states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins
University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global
Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton
University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory:
Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.
Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press
05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against
USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/
spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived
from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as
opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim
Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist
states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than
political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive
conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse
symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against
the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is
concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims,
[and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most
visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include
fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a
dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not
require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural
analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".
Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton
99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world.
Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments
(cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental
differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared
to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that
could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying...
military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2)
[R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents
[depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total
population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations
available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.
Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin
05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why
societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate
change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental
problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary
dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually,
although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows:
Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight
at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The
Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues;
(7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part
Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two
Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13)
'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous
Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes;
(16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are
entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.
Larry Diamond Promoting Democracy: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives
(Washington: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict 95):-report to Commission
describesorganizations(including UN), activities, techniques and limitations, all of which help
to promote democracy's worldwide spread and support.
Larry Diamond"The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State"(36-48) Foreign
Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "After decades of historic gains, the world has
slipped into a democratic recession. Predatory states are on the rise, threatening both nascent
and established democracies throughout the world. But this trend can be reversed with the
development of good governance and strict accountability, and the help of conditional aid from
the West". Author is Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution and Co-Editor of Journal of Democracy.
Essay is adapted from his new book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free
Societies Throughout the World (Times Books 08).
Milovan Djilas The New Class: An Analysis of the Communist System(New York: Praeger 57):-
definitive insider's critique of how idealistic systems become self-serving, and rulers sacrifice
others' concerns and lives to perpetuate their own group interests. The insights extend well
beyond Yugoslavia in both time and place. Other Djilas works that illuminate both his case and
the origins of the current conflicts include:Conversations with Stalin(New York: Harcourt, Brace
& World 62); Wartime: With Tito and the Partisans(London: Secker & Warburg 80); and Tito: The
Story from Inside(New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich 80). All help to explain the only regime
most Yugoslavs knew until recently.
Paul Doremus et al. The Myth of the Global Corporation(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press
98):-tests structural and strategic convergence of MNCs(US/Germany/Japan). It finds "enduring
diversity...in corporate governance...long-term..financing...national innovation and investment
systems" (138). MNCs do most R&D at home; major differences exist in composition and
technical activities of foreign affiliates. FDI and intrafirm trade practices consistently diverge.
Hence "national institutions and ideologies shape corporate structure" (139)and policies, in spite
of increasing global openness and integration. MNCs "createno automatic...mechanisms for
regime formation" (145). As domestic power shifts, it may be concentrated globally. "Given
scope, nationalist tendencies inherent in[economic]policies that governments...pursue could
become more...dangerous" (148).More effective commercial diplomacy(WTO)required.
Alex N.Dragnich Serbs and Croats: The Crisis in Yugoslavia(New York: Harcourt Brace
Jovanovich 92):-source has a frankly pro-Serb bias, probably intended to balance the anti-Serb
bias of the vast majority of Western commentators. The book is useful not only in showing there
is a Serb case, but in helping to understand the Serb perspective on a number of historical and
current issues. It is best on the pre-1941 period, the author's field.
Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton
& Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable
review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic
for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future
will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will
increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but
rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments
of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world
-message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own -
tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short
Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global
economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function
properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or
absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this
book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6).
Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs:
Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.
Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan
05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says
could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands
of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises
- hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations
would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing
in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges
the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road
building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN
Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known
ascrusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end
extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion".Other elements are described: the serious
diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the
surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM
Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17
Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again,
divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8,
and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The
Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the
NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis
of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document
in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed
with high-octane analysis andrecommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less
than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of
disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing
world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now
- and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final
goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does
approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find
that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes
team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost
deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by
plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself
can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren
Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan
Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given
to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no
more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich
Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in
Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.
Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep
05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably
summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally
critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th
anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty
commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more
are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)
meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a
billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current
disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda
on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's
deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton,
initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and
child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium
Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead
citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before
US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations
at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at
UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme
poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child
by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren
Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously
approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan
said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform
organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise
widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren
Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush,
facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against
nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as
grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered
down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight
terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his
endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to
struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and
extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not
repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium.
In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative
that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight
corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward
giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they
hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid
targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders
explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom
from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering
from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international
crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st
century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic,
global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few
weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA
for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure.
UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission
to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when
civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear
proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of
commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted";
AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14
Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet
challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was
'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action
on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on
which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we
stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building,
democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the
strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and
incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement,
choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to
member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep
05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy
and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities
that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading
democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N.
Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep]
that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in
refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced
to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes
region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14
Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15
developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction,
but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform
of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's
details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN
overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling
genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during
negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to
foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the
Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT
14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged
global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world
to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN
achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal
of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming
moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World
leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions
forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to
endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80
nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and
rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest
nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need
to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep
05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and
nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world
leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling
rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial
Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have
both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society.
World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its
military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well
as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially
through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific
prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming
decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and
elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most
important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional
powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base...
As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising
risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this
together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations
Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a
draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of
state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward.
'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the
blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of
Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others
had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came
up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was
averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance.
It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after
wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human
Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other
atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of
UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not.
Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on
disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty
platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on
terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever
and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA
to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success
appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT
16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have
thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some
of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to
address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to
increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at
UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some
of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN
Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like
Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The
scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in
awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control
over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA.
'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power
of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to
UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of
Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century
problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again
embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of
proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity
together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent
civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said
condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism
strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich
countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights]
council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal
dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with
Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I
havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating
US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren
Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow
ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief,
clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him
for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active
opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red
lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came
with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than
400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of
summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of
antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves
across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had
significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department
opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's
direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question
arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State
Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said
he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN
management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they
were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great
discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands
Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line
renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing
staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way
to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.]
with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute.
Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text
UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive
reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez
Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized
UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful
countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan
Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the
work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force...
Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed
by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere
unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from
genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and
areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition
of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of
mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its
decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President
Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified
under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty
and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18
Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered
a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a
vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do
something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)...
decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no
strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar
to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and
peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page
document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member
UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this,
compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate
having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in
191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and
five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered
WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without
names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in
process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here
current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan
also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with
53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent
members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current
five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at
UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But
one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence
struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN
summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe
haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader
convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to
curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep
05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA
debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people.
Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document
adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would
withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations
made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said
about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking
on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged
by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals";
Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International
community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and
begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal
refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double
the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and
their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to
a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for
first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and
responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of
UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps,
provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of
persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to
sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect
their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy
Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN,
[John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we
wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for
watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling.
Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new
resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The
House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to
payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use
dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has
warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese
lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world
body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays
about 22%".
Celia W.Dugger"U.S. Focus on Abstinence Weakens AIDS Fight, Agency Finds"New York Times
05 Apr 06:-"Insistence by Republican Congressional leaders that US money to fight the spread
of AIDS globally be used to emphasize abstinence and fidelity is undercutting comprehensive
and widely accepted aid models,[US] Government Accountability Office said in a report released
[04 Apr 06]... It found that theprovision had limited the reach of broader strategies to fight AIDS
that include the use of condoms... 'It is hampering their ability to implement key elements of
widely accepted model of HIV/AIDS prevention - the ABC approach', said main author of the
report. ABC stands for abstain, be faithful, or use condoms.Report based on interviews with US
officials carrying out US-financed AIDS programs in 15 countries".
Celia W.Dugger"Letter From Kenya: Where AIDS Galloped, Lessons in Applying the Reins"New
York Times 18 May 06:-major article describes/discusses US influence on Kenya policy, but
summary mainly on current pandemic conditions. "Kenya rarity in Africa: nation where experts
say AIDS shows signs of easing. So... attracting policy makers/researchers looking for keys to
slowing relentless spread of AIDS on continent. Trends heartening. Medical experts estimate new
HIV infections... plummeted over last decade from peak of more than 200,000/year to fewer than
90,000. And changes in sexual habits seemcontributing to decline. Men say having sex with
fewer partners, and women report losing virginity later.Many teenagers, once sexually active, say
they are abstaining entirely. Such shifts... suggest abstinenceprograms... have some chance of
success...Kenyan health officials frankly acknowledge evidence lacking on effectiveness of
programs that promote condoms or abstinence. According to UN AIDS agency, Kenya, Uganda,
Zimbabwe: the sub-Saharan with documented declines in HIV prevalence. Researchers agreefall
partly because AIDS deaths have reduced population of HIV-positive people. But also say likely
behaviour change has helped. In Uganda, increased use of condoms important. Health officials
[in Kenya]say spread of knowledge about how to prevent infection and rising tide of death been
catalytic... Asdonors racheted up financing of anti-AIDS programs, landscape for prevention
changed. Since...2003,US dominant donor in Kenya: $208m this year to combat AIDS... More than
half that financing feverish drive for diagnosis of AIDS and treatment of infected... AIDS patients
receiving drug treatment rocketedto 70,000 from fewer than 10,000 in 2003. Paradoxically,
explosive growth in testing/treatment may be US' s most important contribution to preventing
spread of disease. Once people know AIDS not a death sentence, more willing to be tested, and
once know their HIV status they can protect themselves/sexualpartners... Experts' judgement[:]
more than half new infections in Kenya are with couples in which onepartner HIV-positive. US
also paying programs aimed at changing behaviour. This year,.. $15.7m on programs that
promote abstinence/faithfulness, and $7.8m to prevent sexual transmission of HIV,including...
condoms to high-risk groups. [D]ebate that rages in WashDC over AIDS/sex sometimesseems
[here] more reflection US culture wars than African realities... Under guidelines, US funds can
be used to educate children 14/younger about abstinence/faithfulness, with condom education
added for15/older... Scholars say much work remains to figure out which of so-called ABC
programs - abstain, befaithful, use condoms - effective...But efforts to prevent spread of AIDS
will not wait for definitiveevidence. [If] sex can lead to death, many people on both sides of
ideological divide agree abstinence for the young should be embraced. Also clear many young
people will have sex despite the dangers, and that abstinence programs alone will not protect
them".
Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and
broad publications being written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or
policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The widely-known author of this book,
however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly,
even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a
number of the great powers, climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing
role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because
each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats' to its
security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant
probability of wars, including even nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees
Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation to curb emissions and
stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover).
The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible
and worrisome scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in
a region suffering from the experience of climate change. The other is the author's carefully
quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008 personal interviews.
The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical
sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In
part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).
The Economist 25 Jul 98 "A Challenge to Impunity" (Edit.21-2):-cautiously optimistic on decision
in Rome to establish International Criminal Court, despite US attempts to weaken and finally
block it. Vote 120-7 in favour left US "humiliated and glum"but, as with landmine treaty, it showed
willingness of other states to move ahead without superpower to create rule of law. Text outlines
questions of contention and weakness but argues court is long overdue(planned to follow
Nuremberg/Tokyo trials); however, large body of international law covering genocide, war
crimes, and crimes against humanity has developed since. Court can show both independence
and moral force.
The Economist 01 Aug 98 "Turkey's Kurds: Down But Far From Out" (44-5):-both history and
rationale of Kurdish guerrilla movement, PKK, in and against Turkey, including its period of
international terrorism. Emphasis less on recently limited military success than notable
diplomatic/financial support abroad. 20 Feb 99 "The Kurds: An Ancient Tragedy" (50-2):- another
excellent survey of history/scale/location/prospects of Kurdish problem throughout homeland
(good ethnic map).Written after Turkish capture of PKK leader Ocalan;possibly improved chance
of deal with Turkey.
The Economist 12 Sep 98: "Culture Wars" (97-9):-created by the global speed, power and
ubiquity of modernization, the fear of cultural homogenization is widespread. Often this takes
the form of (sometimes violent) anti-Americanism because the US "got there first" or seems
"interested in exporting its way of life" (97). Yet the article discovers that in key area of
entertainment, it is only in films and TV US has attained global dominance. Even here it employs
or is owned by foreigners, caters to global tastes, and is itself more multicultural. Elsewhere, US
has cultural rivals: pop music is more international, musicals British, publishing German, fashion
European. Anyway, quotas and subsidies tend to fail.
The Economist 13 Feb 99 "Female Genital Mutilation: Is It Crime or Culture?" (45-6):-serious
human rights, health, legal and ethnic problem. Chart shows those countries with highest
prevalence - from Djibouti/Somalia/Egypt with over 95% to Burkina Faso 70% estimated; 137m
women in at least 28 African countries have been mutilated. Attempts to stop it clearly causing
less controversy in UN than in countries involved; while number of African states officially
criminalized practice to avoid losing ODA, they do not dare enforce law. Apparently more
effective to avoid cultural or moral judgment, and to concentrate onhealth risks, which WHO sees
as serious, and education.
The Economist 03 Apr 99 "War with Milosevic" (17-21):-collection of mainly analytical essays on
NATO confrontation with Serbia, discussing: both sides' probable aims, tactics and options;
situation in/effect onMacedonia; US/Clinton sequence of thinking and actions, and their possible
effect on internationalism and NATO; implications under/possibly for international law; long-term
historic and recent background to Kosovo's role for both sides.
The Economist 17 Apr 99 "Refugees: Exporting Misery" (23-7):-origins, political/military uses,
ultimate destinies, of many past refugee issues, designed to help determine Serb aims and NATO
options in Kosovo. While global number/exploitation/impact of refugees seem to have escalated
recently, tragedy so chronic that historical lessons can be drawn. Nature of triggering
conflict(ideological/ethnic/economic)and how it ends are critical. Ethnic conflicts most difficult
to end, while reconciliation aids resettlement. Of four types of basic refugee assistance(safe
havens in homeland; camps nearby; more distant resettlement; permanent repatriation),
experience and circumstances favour repatriation in spite of difficulty/high cost. Additional
lessons: separate refugees from combatants; give them some choice of location if movement
necessary; or of timing if repatriation possible.
The Economist 05 Jun 99 "Africa's Democratic Joys and Tribulations" (43):-while most African
countrieshave officially embraced democracy, it is in fact encountering "immense difficulties."
By late 80s Africa contained only four functioning multi-party democracies: Botswana, Senegal,
Gambia, Mauritius. Then like other areas, at least its opinion-makers were greatly influenced by
democratic revolution that swept through Soviet empire. Under foreign and/or domestic
pressure, African dictators were forced to hold elections. In90s 42 more sub-Saharan military
dictatorships or one-party states out of 50 have held elections(some sort).In first ones, only ten
governments were changed; in second, only two. Incumbents, however bad, tend to win
elections, and there is rampant vote manipulation. "Democracy" did not improve economics,
create viable Oppositions, or reduce ethnic rivalries.
The Economist 10 Jul 99 "Children Under Arms: Kalashnikov Kids" (19-21):-describes horrors
and scale of problem of child soldiers and difficulty of dealing with it. UN Convention on Rights
of the Child defines those under 18 years old as children, but permits recruitment at 15.
Estimated that 300,000 children in over 60 countries currently soldiers. Vast majority - as young
as 11 - are mostly forced or cajoled into formal or informal Third World fighting units, from
west/central Africa to Balkans/Latin America/Sri Lanka/Afghanistan.Reasons: children are
plentiful(half Sub-Saharan Africa's population under 18); easier to attract, abduct and mould than
adults; often brave; always cheap. Score: perhaps 2m killed in combat post-87, perhaps 6m
seriously injured, almost all brutalized. UN System: now attacking issue from several directions.
The Economist 24 Jul 99 "How Angola's War Protects Polio" (43):-sobering evidence of both
human security's interdependence and multiple afflictions of violence. Probably WHO's greatest
achievement was global eradication of smallpox in 79. For 10 years UN bodies/governments been
fighting to eradicate polio, which at peak killed or paralysed 500,000 people annually. Effective
vaccine now immunizes by few drops in baby's mouth. Hence by 98 reported cases reduced to
5,000, limited to pockets mainly in Africa/South Asia, thus creating hope to eliminate polio by 00.
But these last bastions hardest, mainly because of civil wars, e.g. Sierra
Leone/Congo/Sudan/Somalia. In Angola, UNITA has both blocked aid workers and driven so
many refugees into such huge camps these actually created major polio outbreak. "For polio
virus, war is last safe haven" .
The Economist 29 Jan 00 "The Rules of Secession" (22):- Editor raises hot question: Is there
right to secede?If "sophisticated states are no longer neurotically attached to bits of territory"
, but would not welcome "new profusion of tiny tribal states" it offers four principles with which
to judge demands:(1) "Secession should neither be encouraged nor discouraged...it is in itself
neither good nor bad" . [Even, like Editor, ignoring violent emotions/ greed as dangerous/bad
motives for secession(see 4 Mar Economist: "War and Money..." )there are other inherently
serious "bad" secessions, particularlycreation of non-viable states: East Timor?apartheid's"
Bantustans" ?Bosnia? Kosovo?rump Canada minus Quebec?.](2) "It should be carried out only
if clear majority(well over 50%-plus-one of voters)have freely chosen" .[Ducks absolutely critical
question of who gets to vote: all in Ireland?Ulster?Cyprus? Bosnia?Canada?;all(but only?)ethnic
group members of which some want to secede:Quebecois?francophones in Canada?in
Belgium?Kurds?Punjabis?Kashmiris?;all deeply affected by secession: all Canadians?](3)
"Secessionist territory must offer guarantees that any minorities it drags along will be decently
treated" .[One's "decency" is another's "oppression" so who sets/judges/imposes guarantees?;
what if some refuse to be "dragged" :change borders?secessions within
secessions?resettlement(i.e. "cleansing" )?](4) "Secessionists should be able to make
reasonable claim to be national group" .[Since" Bosnians" could not, cannot, and for long will
not be able to do so, who decides?when and how much should numbers/history
count(Palestine)?latest inter/intra-state/ethnic borders often produce fatal new units(Tito's
mis-divided Yugoslavia?Quebec?)so how(much)respected?]
The Economist 19 Feb 00"Picking Winners" (21-2): - this Editorial discusses the problem of
finding a better way to select the heads of international organizations. It is topical in light of the
current or recent difficultyfinding acceptable incumbents for UN Secretary-General, IMF
Managing Director, WTO Director-General, EBRD and European Central Bank Presidents, NATO
Secretary-General, to say nothing of effective headsfor UN Specialized Agencies (UNESCO, FAO,
WHO...). The Editor sees three underlying causes of the trouble: job reservation by country or
continent; "parochial nationalism" (nationality/language given undue weight); frequent need for
consensus. While it is unrealistic to take politics out of selections, job reservation and
consensus could both go, and governments allowed to nominate only foreign nationals. Best
would be asenior selection committee finding three candidates who would then be examined at
public confirmation hearings.
The Economist 04 Mar 00 "War and Money: The Business of Conflict" (46-8):-while land/people
conquesthas long been goal of warfare, such "fixed assets" can now be costly and unstable.
Report by ICRC(Forum: War, Money and Survival,Geneva:Mar 00)argues: "Prolonged internal
violence in[lands]with rich natural resources but corrupt or weak governments may best be
understood as battles for money or[marketable]resources...Some wars are caused in large part
by corruption and banditry...whereas otherswhich may have begun as ethnic or ideological
conflicts, are now sustained in part by illicit trading[Afghan opium, Colombian cocaine]. Rebels,
governments and even peacekeepers have fought for diamonds, minerals and timber in recent
wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone" . Many participants(arms/other traders, mercenaries)may prefer
to continue to exploit a war rather than win and end it. Such "resource" wars are particularly hard
to end if the" fighters" have no goal but profit. Trade sanctions may help;then smugglers gain.
As example of key role of diamonds in financing bloody and protracted war in Angola, see
Barbara Crossette "Report on Angola Sanctions is Challenged in the U.N." New York Times 16
Mar 00. One in series of fine articles on expert investigation for Security Council's Angola
Sanctions Committee, it reports two African presidents, Bulgarian government and diamond
exchange in Antwerp were inter alia implicatedin smuggling and sale of Angolan diamonds by
UNITA rebels, contrary to UN sanctions. Canadian committeechairman has called for action
against sanctions-busters, first time a sanctions committee has actively enforced embargo.
Corrective action was promised. For full account of diamonds' role in conflicts: Blaine Harden
"Africa's Gems: Warfare's Best Friend" NYT 06 Apr. Expert claims 10-15% of world supply comes
from war zones. World Bank report goes further and blames outbreak and/or continuation of vast
majority of recent civil wars, not on ethnic motives, but on greed for control of valuable
commodities like diamonds, other gemstones, narcotics, oil, coffee etc. Joseph Kahn "World
Bank Blames Diamonds and Drugs for Many Wars" NYT 16 Jun sees two conclusions:
discourage states from becoming too heavily dependent on commodities, and control their illicit
sale before/during conflict. Barbara Crossette, "Singling Out Sierra Leone, U.N. Council Sets
Gem Ban" NYT 06 Jul:-action by UNSC in latter direction: it" imposed worldwide ban on
purchase of rough diamonds from Sierra Leone until its government can establish system to
certify origin of stones being exported, and begins to assert authority over diamond fields" .
Most are now under rebel control, with stones smuggled out through Liberia. Resolution is
admittedly experimental, but aims at roots of war, reflects growing cooperation from both
industry/governments, and may signal major new UN peacemaking tool. Economist 08 Jul "Is
That a Rebel Rock on Your Finger?" (42):-notes West African governments(with US support)
prevented extending ban to Liberia, but it may at least lower smugglers' prices-up to 50%.
Associated Press "Diamond Industry Acts to Halt Trade in Illicit Gems From Africa" NYT20 Jul:
World Diamond Congress, conscious that growing horror about "blood diamonds" could
seriously hurt trade, has arranged means(verifiable certificates of place of origin)to track
diamonds mine/retailer and applyheavy penalties(ban licences)to who break rules.
The Economist 13 May 00 "Hopeless Africa" (Edit.17); "The Heart of the Matter" (22-4):-analyses
of Africa's multiple and multiplying problems similar to those of Bayart, Ellis and
Hibou(op.cit.).Editorial deals mainly with Sierra Leone, and difficulty, but long-term necessity,
of robust UN interventions. Item tries to explainwhy so much gone so wrong, so consistently.
Like Reader(op.cit.)it relates emphasis onfamily/friends/local loyalties to geography, climate,
disease, isolation. Yet it blames political/economicfailures, and tendencies toward self-serving,
corrupt, exploitative autocracy(even if hidden by veneer of democracy)as much on outside
influences - disruptive colonial experience/donor paternalism - as on continental culture of
survival. Way out does not yet lie through facade of democracy, but first bysomehow creating
self-confidence/mutual trust. John Stremlau "Ending Africa's Wars" Foreign
AffairsVol.79/No.4(Jul/Aug 00):-agrees about serious problem of African(mostly internal)conflicts,
but sees true democracy as key to solution. Argues democracy would help prevent wars before
they start, since most result from bad governance. "Weak, authoritarian African governments
lack institutional capacity to manage factional struggles" ; they exclude ethnic groups, and allow
poverty and gross income inequality- thus producing conflict. International intervention should
respond - between Somalian-Rwandan extremes, but it needs reliable regional partners. South
Africa fills this need politically/economically, and should be supported, including in UN.
The Economist 5 Aug 00 "Engage and Prosper" (Edit.22-3); "Peacekeeping: The UN's Missions
Impossible" (Essay:24-6); "Road-Mending in Lebanon" (Note:25); "Kouchnerism in Kosovo"
(Note:26):-editorial, essayand notes have one subject in common: role of United Nations. Leader
makes point US took lead in 1945,creating UN System and its rules; later helped build UN-centred
global network of legal economic and security rules. Yet" pre-eminent victor of Cold War has
failed to provide leadership needed to build kind of international system unruly post-Cold-War
world demands" .Instead it chooses rules it obeys, or those it ignores - setting politically/morally
dangerous precedent of unilateral exemptions from rule of law, and of selective involvement even
when its own paramount beliefs are flouted. Essay offers expert history - warts and all - of
evolving UN peacekeeping that now makes humanitarian intervention in cases of gross violation
of human rights almost compulsory. Yet UN is refused men, money and structure necessary to
undertake increasingly complex and dangerous missions, including effectively in East Timor and
Kosovosimultaneous administration/creation of civil regimes, reconstruction of badly damaged
economies, and maintenance of peace in societies split by hatred. Priority recommendations:
UN needs good intelligence analysis, and UNSG willing to refuse clearly impossible missions.
Notes describe:(1)lengthy(22 years),dangerous(82 dead), and frustrating(finally
completed)experience of UN force(UNIFIL)in south Lebanon sent to supervise Israeli
withdrawal;(2)Bernard Kouchner unique responsibility:" begin buildingpeace/democracy/stability
and self-government" in Kosovo. Common thread might be: world badly needs US-UN to work
together to create new rules and structures to help ensure unprecedented/rapidly-evolving21st
Century challenges can be handled.
The Economist 19 Aug 00 "The Caucasus: Where Worlds Collide" (17-9):-tackles perhaps most
ethnically explosive/ politically unruly/economically depressed region in world. It offers
non-experts concise picture of "states" in area, whether recognized(Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Georgia),self-proclaimed(Abkazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South
Ossetia),aspiring(Ajaria?, Dagestan?, Ingushetia?, Javakheti?, Nakhichevan?, North Ossetia?)or
neighbouring(Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey)in terms of their recent clashes/multiple
secession/inter-ethnic problems; appalling political/economic conditions, and interests/roles of
almost all in others' affairs. Wonderful chart on this. Among major points made: there might be
100b barrels of oil and gas around Caspian; 3000km of international borders in Caucasus of
which 9km(sic)truly friendly; "same cocktail of bad government, spite-thy-neighbour and poverty
poisons life in[whole]of Caucasus" ; "political and military stalemate disguises economic/social
catastrophe" ; since independence2m(50%of population)emigrated from Armenia, 1m(20%)from
Georgia, 1.5m(20%)from Azerbaijan; for one of many "solutions" :www.ceps.be.
The Economist 02 Sep 00 "The Price of Paying Ransoms" (Edit. 17):-recalling large number of
highly publicized hostage-takings recently(Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, Fiji, former Soviet
Union, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Yemen)confirms global trend
upwards. Those taken in 1999 increased by 6% over 1998, number has been growing at that rate
for several years - producing total increase of 70% over eight years. Ransom by Libya of Jolo
Island hostages at $1m each taught kidnappers:" holding few hostages keeps army away;
grabbing more keeps money rolling in" ,as well as someglobal politics(for Libyan motives/source
of funds: "Qaddafi, Floating Like a Butterfly" (41)). Whilekidnapping has many causes(
"inequalities of wealth, availability of guns, rebel armies looking for funds, underpaid police"
)main reason is rewards. Hence universal lesson: hostage-taking must be seen not to pay. Short
of capturing/punishing kidnappers[absence of any safe haven may be critical], it may also
meanmaking it illegal to pay ransom.[Editor might add: such rules work best if applied/enforced
globally.]
The Economist 28 Oct 00 "United Nations and Refugees: Ruud Surprise" (43-4):-Ruud Lubbers,
former Dutch PM (82-94),unexpected choice to succeed Mrs. Sadako Ogata as United Nations
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Refugee agency, which has annual budget of more
than $1b, is most politically active of UN's agencies. [Having played critical, life-saving role in
all-too-many wars and humanitariancrises, its] importance will continue, and perhaps expand.
Displacement of civilians, once semi-accident of war, has now become one of main goals of
warring parties. Worldwide now 14m refugees...and 21m internally displaced people[under
UNHCR care]" . Global total unknown but much larger. Priority of refugee over IDP may end,
since latter often need more urgent help. Controversial distinction is between( "threatened"
)refugees and(up to billions of)economic migrants. Barbara Crossette "Dutch Figure Seen as
Choice for U.N. Post With Refugees" NYT 25 Oct 00:-picked up appointment in advance and
addedother details. Term is five years(Ogata held for nearly ten),job is viewed as one of most
important in UN system, being responsible for staff of about 5,000 working in more than 120
countries. Lubbers, like WHODirector-General, Gro Harlem Brundtland(former PM of Norway)and
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson(former president of Ireland), is another
high-level political leader added to UNSGAnnan's team of administrators. Reuters "Ogata Says
UN Council Is Too Slow And Inflexible" NYT 10 Nov 00:-Sadako Ogata, in farewell speech as
UNHCR to Security Council, gave piece of her mind to only body in world on which every
government has conferred "primary responsibility for maintenance of international peace and
security" (Charter Art.24).Among her criticisms: Nature of war has changed, sincemuch is now
civil strife conducted by undisciplined guerrilla armies. "In spite of discussions on wider
approaches, peace operations continue to be country-based, and reflect neither internal nor
regional nature of many of today's wars." Moreover, Council dispatched peacekeepers far too
late to protectuprooted citizens or even UN staff in field[UNHCR has suffered more fatal
casualties than any other UN agency]. "We at UNHCR have become used to being called to
confront refugee emergencies, literally at few hours' notice. We have no choice: delays in our
work inevitably means that lives are lost." Council alsoinflexible in expanding operations across
borders to aid trapped refugees(terrible examples of Rwanda-Zaire and East-West
Timor).Currently Guinea has requested security aid to help half-a-million trapped refugees in its
areas bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone; yet only presence of international community
ishumanitarian." Ogata contended that governments are receptive to "ladder of options" to
improve local security in refugee-inhabited areas. She also argued gap between short-term aid
and development programs too large once emergencies ended.(UNSC going to discuss
peacekeeping reforms next day..)Economist 27 Jan 01 "A New Deal For Refugees: Changed
Course" (48):-negative report on UNHCR Lubbers' commitments and plans. It notes many
maintaining/benefiting from UNHCR operations found his selection process "murky and
undemocratic" , suspecting he gained post "along with" orders from major donors to cut
organization back. In any event, he announced 24 Jan that budget would drop well below its
recent $1b annual level, in hope that funding levels would at least become reliable. He proposes
thatmuch UNHCR relief work(giving refugees food, shelter, other services)be assumed by NGOs,
WFP,businesses. Lubbers also wants to reverse Ogata's special interest in 25m IDPs, arguing
they areresponsibility of "their own governments" (if any).Regarding asylum-seekers, he takes
tougher line, however: Europeans(sic) "must take seriously responsibility of giving asylum" .
The Economist 06 Jan 01 "Rights and Refugees" (Edit.17-8); "The Palestinian Right of Return"
(41-2):-why refugee-return issue is probably most difficult Israeli-Palestinian issue. Some 3.6m,
50%+of all Palestinians, are refugees registered by UNRWA. They were originally those who were
either expelled or fled in 1948 from their homes in what UN recognized as Israel. Most(plus their
descendants)still live -many in refugee camps- in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza.
None has been compensated; they depend on UNGA resolutions for restitution: Res.194/948
states: "refugees wishing to return to their homes...should be permitted to do so" .Israel does
not acknowledge this "right of return" but recognizesneed for substantial compensation(by
somebody)and expects refugees to be settled elsewhere(at most .5mmight gradually be
absorbed in poor/tiny new Palestinian state).Israel's essential problem is demographic:addition
of millions of Palestinians to Israeli population would end any Jewish state. Editor
suggests(contradictory)solution lies in mutual acknowledgement of both refugees' right of return
to Israel and Israel's right to determine when, and who must be refused on grounds of national
security.
The Economist 03 Mar 01 "Displaced People: When Is a Refugee Not a Refugee?" (23-6):-good
overview of growing problem of internally displaced persons(IDPs). "People who are trapped by
war or persecution within their own countries need help as much as, or more than, official
refugees. But world has been slow to appreciate their plight" (23). Essay covers, at least briefly,
all major aspects of global issue: numbers, locations, motives, needs and handling of IDPs.
Above all, however, it probes implications of their legal problem: they do not fit UN definition of
refugee, i.e. "any person who[for specific reasons]is outside country of nationality" and so does
not receive refugee's legal protection, nor are IDPs officially responsibility ofshort-funded
UNHCR. While IDPs form largest group of displaced persons no effort has even been made
before to count them. Dennis McNamara, UN's co-ordinator on internal displacement will,
however, besubmitting full report to UNSG demanding that more be done.
The Economist 07 Apr 01 "The Balkans After Milosevic" (23-8):-Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo etc.
horrors far enough in past to begin to be studied academically; emphasis on" Serb aggression"
, only" Serb atrocities" , Milosevic's alleged drive for" Greater Serbia" ,can be replaced with more
informed/objective analyses of all participant motives/actions. This essay on origins/prospects
of current situation in former Yugoslaviademonstrates some progress. These extracts try only
to show this; they do not summarize whole essay. "As champion of Serbs...Milosevic fanned
their flames of war in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo...He fought a war against his fellow nationalist,
late Franjo Tudjman of Croatia, and then colluded with him in bid to break up
Bosnia...Kosovo...Milosevic's brutal reputation worked to[independence-campaigners' ]tactical
advantage; more moderate leadership in Belgrade would have undermined their case...But
Milosevic mostly got away with it because he patented and personified style of government
which, from practitioners' viewpoint, was rational response to upheaval that followed collapse
of communism.[M]any ex-communist leaders found that fanning inter-ethnic passions provided
handy way to maintain their grip on economic and political life...Moreover, criminal nationalism
on one side of conflict triggers similar phenomenon on other side." Rest of essay deals
individually/well with problems of post-Yugoslav states.
The Economist 14 Apr 01 "Perfect?" (Edit.15-6) "The Politics of Genes: America's Next Ethical
War" (21-4):-problem already raising issues in US and bound to rapidly become global: vast
implications of genetic science, through which humans can be created "to order" - and rapidly
cease to be humans as we know them. Deals with how question has arisen in US, various views
and problems faced, and how will probably be handled - series of specific Supreme Court
decisions. But this bibliography deals only with global issues -well addressed in Edit. It first
notes genetic science does not pose just "normal" questions of how to regulate new technology;
also presents ethical and political challenges both extraordinary/imminent. In positive terms
biotechnology allows medicine tailored to individuals, some diseases to be prevented before
they occur; childless to be given children. Yet governments need expert, regular, independent
advice: ifproposed major genetic innovations are "necessary and desirable" . For safety should
also be moratorium on reproductive human cloning, at least until odds of success much higher
than now. Meanwhile those whooppose cloning can try to prove case for banning. Good
arguments both ways: in favour, say, form ofbenign(even life-saving)and individual eugenics, or
against, lifetime loss of dignity or autonomy for reasons reflecting no more than cosmetics or
parental hubris. Be open-minded but cautious.
The Economist 12 May 01 "Economics Focus: On the Move" (78):-economic factors
uppermostthroughout history of migration. "[Up to WWI,]migration of labour was consistently
one of biggest drivers of economic change. Since[WWII,]international movement of labour
proving[again]of greatest economic and social significance[despite] efforts of rich countr[ies]to
constrain migration" .Emigration, both legal and illegal, from poorer countries has expanded
rapidly" as economics had its way" .Migration in clear interests of migrants, but "also very much
in overall interests of receiving countries" though there are losers. "Economic conditions now
seem propitious for enormous further expansion of migration" .Rising incomes in migrants'
sources enable emigration. In receiving economies, falling demand for unskilled labour, plus
unskilled immigration, lowers wages, increasing union pressure to restrict unskilled. Hencemore
skilled migrants(+" brain drain" ); fewer or more illegal-unskilled migrants.
The Economist 09 Jun 01 "Mr Bush Goes to Europe" (Edit.9); "Special Report - America and
Europe; Wanted: New Rules of the Road" (25-7):-in connection with Bush II's first official visit
to Europe(EU/NATO)essays cite many US-European disputes and divergent attitudes(in terms
of global perspectives, preoccupations, and images of each other)but conclude common
values/interests will overcome. Defence raises genuine differences over US missile defence
proposal(with prefix" national" now being downplayed)and its threat to ABM Treaty. Europeans'
"worries might recede" if they(and Russia)could be persuaded its sole purpose/use would be
against "rogue" regimes. Also" lurking disagreements" overconventional forces: prospect of US
redeployments from Europe to Pacific and real effects(on NATO)and motives of EU rapid-reaction
force. Trade disputes: chronic, moving into(previously-domestic)regulatoryissues, sometimes
bitter and reflecting even cultural differences(GMO). Behind all lie major worries about prospects
for new WTO trade round. Serious perceptual problem: if things go badly, both sides" fall back
on some surprisingly negative stereotypes.[US]stereotype is of Europe that is economically
sclerotic, psychologically neurotic and addicted to spirit-sapping welfare schemes and
freedom-infringing state. European stereotype is of gun-slinging, Bible-bashing,
Frankenstein-food-guzzling, behemoth-driving, planet-polluting[US]in which politicians are mere
playthings of mighty corporations" (25). Most striking, Europeanassessments of Bush
himself(prior his visit)were "strongly hostile" though not unprecedented. "More important,
structural changes in world politics are driving wedge between Europe and US" .Among Europe's
four big powers only Italy's new government shares Bush's conservatism. In terms of security,
US and Europe each need other less than in past(even Clinton past). "Upshot of consolidation
of Europe has been to tugEurope and America in opposite directions[and to]look at world in
increasingly different ways" (26). US looks at Asia and Americas; Europe looks at Europe. Europe
is inclined to apply principles of multilateralism;US, and Bush in particular" tend to see world
in traditional great-power terms. National interest, diplomatic leadership and protection of
military might are what matter. International treaties and global norms merely constrain
America's sovereignty" (27). Europeans see this as unilateralism, while Americans often see
Europeans as" grandstanding free-riders, willing to lecture America about death penalty but less
willing than they should be to spend money to make their troops effective" .[For example of
worry that antagonism towards US also helps Europeans define their own identity, Economist
cites Kissinger. Up-to-date: Gregg Easterbrook "Europe Builds Itself Up at Bush's Expense" New
York Times 17 Jun.] "At this point,transatlantic relationship is at point of divergence[but
unique]institutional, economic and cultural ties...set limit to further deterioration" .May be further
drift, or revival of transatlantic alliance as "partnership of equals" . Remember how much US and
Europe "still have in common, and what they could do together if they put their minds to it" (27).
The Economist 20 Nov 03 "The International Criminal Court: For Us Or Against Us?" :-possibly
the most critical editorial of Economist against disgusting US foreign policy in history. "Some
70 countries, representing 40% of world's population, have now signed bilateral agreements with
US exempting US citizens - and often their own - from prosecution by ICC. According to John
Bolton, US under-secretary for international security, US' s ultimate goal is to conclude such
pacts with every country in the world. Court, he complains, runs 'contrary to...basic
constitutional principles of popular sovereignty/checks/balancesand national independence.'ICC
first permanent international body able to try individuals for war crimes/genocide/crimes against
humanity. Set up under 98 Statute of Rome, it has jurisdiction over citizens of countries which
have both signed/ratified Rome statute - known as 'state parties' - as well as overthose
suspected of committing atrocities on territory of a state party. Court is backed by nearly half
world's nations, including all members of European Union and all but one(Turkey)of US' s NATO
allies. YetUS arm-twisting of many...closest allies has at times been ferocious. Under US
Servicemembers' Protection Act, passed last year, administration threatened to cut all military
aid to those countries which had ratified Rome statute, but unwilling to sign bilateral impunity
agreements with US. NATO members and certain other allies were exempted. But some NATO
candidates were warned that failure to enter into such pacts would put their candidacy at risk.
Many third-world countries, heavily dependent on US largesse,scrambled to comply. But others
dug in their heels... Bush administration announced suspension of $millions military aid to 35
of ICC's supporters who refused bilaterals. Included Colombia, third-largest recipient of US
military aid and one of US' s key partners in its war on drugs, as well as several countriesthat
provided troops for war against Iraq. Four, including Colombia, have since had their aid restored
after signing...But 31 others face losing further $89m in military aid in fiscal year. [Summary of
less 50%.]
The Economist 10 Apr 04 "South Africa: A Town Like Alice" (37-9):-unusually informative about
successes, failures and prospects of South African situation after first decade of democracy.
Most material drawn from current status of Alicedale, once relatively successful apartheid
society/economy built on providing watering-stop for steam trains, but closed in 96. Description
that not only has relevance to republic, but history that can be applicable in numbers of other
cultures in world. Issues discussed include general policies ofAfrican National
Congress(ANC),liberation movements that ruled country since apartheid finally
ended;employment trends/serious problems of black and white inhabitants; important yet
inadequate welfare,education/training, housing, legal situations; fastest-growing/valuable
tourism industry. End describesinadequate - but widespread - local policy falling totally behind
HIV/AIDS situation. For good account ofstatus and prospects of South African railway system
and national airline(Transnet, state transport monopoly),see Economist 17 Apr 04 "Face Value:
Getting Africa Moving" (64)on Maria Ramos.
The Economist 17 Apr 04 "AIDS in India: When Silence is Not Golden" (10); "AIDS in India:
Abating, or Exploding" (21-3):-clear-worded Editorial and well-researched Special Report offer
masses of facts on a expanding epidemic and a still imperfect official Indian policy. According
to" the most conservative of estimates,600,000 Indians already have the disease and 4.58m are
infected with HIV[- totals]second only to South Africa.[O]ne UN agency thinks the number of
Indian infections will rise to 12m by 2015. Thegovernment itself...has said that even if it achieves
its own objectives 9m Indians will be infected by 2010...CIA predicts 20m-25m by that date."
Although the country gets substantial funds and experiencefrom abroad and domestic sources,"
India's campaign needs more money, and... stronger political commitment." Moreover, India's
globally famous companies producing HIV/AIDS drugs see their cheap domestic role still
constrained. On balance" forecasts of millions more infections seem horribly possible" ..
The Economist 24 Apr 04 "Israel and the Palestinians: Gaza Isn't the End of It" (Edit.12-4);
"Special Report: Has Something Really Changed?" (25-7):-all chronic issues analysed and delays
or outcomes discussedoffered with much thoughtful information about current possibilities.[So
worth reading, even if your own views differ.]Major point relates to Gaza. "Belligerent" Israeli PM
Ariel Sharon's "plan to withdraw unilaterally from Gaza strip, lesser (and grimmer)part of future
would-be-independent Palestinian state, seems to be winning backing both of his own Likud
party and of most Israelis.[From George Bush]he got just about everything he had hoped for,
including annexation of chunks of territory in West Bank" (25)i.e.includes Gaza but not all
remainder to Palestinians. Moreover "'Long-term interim agreements' have been favourite ploy
of[Sharon:i.e.]making tactical concessions to preserve stalemate in battle against Palestinian
nationalism, in hope that Palestinians will eventually give up. On paper... Sharon now accepts
idea of two-state solution...But sort of Palestinian state that might emerge if security barrier now
being built follows route that digs deep into Palestinian territory would hardly be viable entity
that Bush, let alone other involved outsiders, would accept as bare minimum...Bush and Sharon
did, however, accept that fence may be temporary" .(26) This is most important subject but items
also discuss such tough issues as Palestinian refugees continuing bilateral deaths, Arafat's role,
need to re-establish negotiating table, changing views of Arab/European states, and international
aid to Palestinians. Related article, "Israel's Nukes: Vanunu's Story" (26), describes chronic
Israeli view on having nuclear weapons, reminded by "whistleblower" 's jail release. Economist
03 Jul 04 "Israel and Palestine" (37); ":Who's Winning the Fight?" (38):-items on conflict almost
weekly, but these see past, present and future, and predict movement. "[Sharon]may once more
push ahead with his plan to leave Gaza, while seeking to consolidate Israel's hold on bigger
swathe of West Bank than Palestinians are wont to accept in overall peace package.[US]seems
keen to clinch Gaza withdrawal first, then move on later to negotiations over West Bank. No less
hopefully, Egyptians ...seem to be going along with that idea too. Jordanians warily
approve.[Israel]made it clear that reprisals and incursions could continue before, during and
after a withdrawal.[Sharon]would like Egyptians to have degree of control over Palestinians in
Gaza, just as he may still hope for similar Jordanian co-operation in West Bank. [A]t least
diplomacy is no longer frozen" (37). Other item has chart of Palestinians/Israeli civilians/Israeli
forces deathseach month since 2000. Comments: no lack of potential suicide-bomber recruits;
ICJ may declare barrier illegal. Economist 14 Aug 04 "Israel's Far Right: Ariel Sharon Is a Sissy"
(42); "Israel and Palestine: Blaming Arafat" (73-4):- both items are filled with information about
why situation has been long-term chronic mess. First is up to date, but describes some of
history, capacities and murder carried out byJewish terrorists. They may try to kill Sharon and/or
make movement out of Gaza even more difficult. Second item consists of reviews of two new and
well-written books about failure of almost-successful peacemaking. Dennis Ross, The Missing
Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace(Farrar, Straus and Giroux);and Yossi
Beilin, The Path to Geneva: The Quest for a Permanent Agreement, 1996-2004(RDV Books).Both
are inclined to see final negative role by Yasser Arafat. Ross book also commented on in detail/
praise by Samuel W.Lewis "The Receding Horizon" Foreign AffairsVol.6/No.5(Sep/Oct
04).Economist 02 Oct 04 "Palestine and Israel: Break That Bloody Stalemate" (Edit.14-5);
"Palestine: A Bloody Vacuum" (23-5):-both items offer well-researched information on
Palestinians - their recent past, painful present(in Gaza and West Bank)and possible future. Items
specifically include thoughtful comments on current and possibly future role of Yasser Arafat,
and those who are hoping/liable to replace his central position. Summary of the Special Report
is: "Stalemate between Palestinians and Israelis looks total, but internal rows on both sides offer
a shred of hope." Economist 23 Oct 04 "Israel's Unlikely Dove" (Edit.11); "Israel and Palestine:
Leaving Gaza, Maybe, and To an Uncertain Fate" (22-4):-Summary of Special Report is: "Ariel
Sharon's plan to evacuate Jewish settlements from Gaza is causing outrage in Israel and slipping
beyond its author's control." Key excerpts:(1) "Sharon's lawyer and adviser says plainly beauty
of disengaging from Gaza is that Israel is thereby doing'minimum possible',while removing
Palestinian statehood'indefinitely'from its agenda. But however much they mistrust him,
Palestinians cannotbe seen to be asking Sharon to prolong any part of occupation. So
Palestinian diplomacy now focuses ontrying to connect Israel's Gaza plan to larger questions
of statehood and West Bank...Since neither Israel/US will deal directly with Arafat, Palestinians
need mediator. Enter, backstage, Omar Suleiman,Egypt's head of intelligence. President Hosni
Mubarak has asked [him]to co-operate with both Israelis and Palestinians in order to help Israel
leave Gaza, make its leaving consistent with[US]road map, andpersuade Israelis and Americans
that Palestinians are indeed reliable partners." (2) "Israel already tackleswith talk of violent
opposition, military disobedience and even civil war if Sharon takes on settlermovement without
clear mandate from people..Sharon seems..warmed to idea of national referendum -even though
this would ensure further delay without ensuring final victory." Summary of Editorial: "The world
is entitled to suspect his motives. But Ariel Sharon's plan to leave Gaza still deserves support."
Economist 30 Oct 04 "The Palestinians: After Arafat" (Edit.11); "Israel's Withdrawal From Gaza:
Round One To the Doves" (51-2); "The Palestinians: Adieu, Arafat?" (52):-inter-related
discussions: effects of Yasser Arafat's serious illness(death)& Ariel Sharon's hard political
options after winning positive Gaza-withdrawal vote in Knesset. Khalil Shikaki "The Future of
Palestine" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.6(Nov/Dec 04):-author Director of Palestinian Center for
Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, and wrote with bothexpertise and concern about
Arafat's outdated views before he became ill/died. Varied Palestinian leaders/ personalities/youth,
experiences, and groups identified/describ |