|
|
| by Christopher
Spencer |
Former Senior
Advisor International Organizations, Canadian Department of
Foreign Affairs and International Trade |
| Updated: 13 SEP
08 | |
F.H.Abed"Micro-Credit, Poverty and Development: the Case of Bangladesh"Behind the Headlines
Vol.57/ No.2-3 (Winter/Spring 00):-micro-credit -small loans made to poor households/individuals
to finance small-scale entrepreneurial activities- has expanded rapidly(world target is now $20b),
and encouraged hope for major cost-effective global poverty-reduction. "NGOs in Asia, Africa,
and Latin America are largest providers of micro-credit to those sections of society - rural
landless, disadvantagedwomen, marginal farmers, and wage labourers - who depend largely on
selling their labour for a living" (12). These target groups reflect the fact that it is often the only
way very poor can break cycle of povertyresulting from a lack of collateral and exorbitant local
interest charges. It produced high success ratesnot only in poverty-reduction(and repayment:
98%)but in social reform, economic development, education/training, and growth of assets for
both borrowers/lenders, which is reinvested. Abed, director ofBangladesh Rural Advancement
Committee, among world's largest NGO's, offers much globally-relevant information:big issues/
questions; scale/approach/result; specialties(income-useful education, social development).
Francis Kofi Abiew & Tom Keating "Outside Agents and the Politics of Peacebuilding and
Reconciliation" International Journal Vol.LV/No.1(Winter 99-00):-discusses new policy towards,
often mixed experience with peacebuilding. Recent global trends:(1)major increase in intra-state
violence;(2)multilateral emphasis on individual human rights/security, and hence humanitarian
interventions. "In this context...peacebuildingemerged as central part of what rest of world to
offer to divided societies" i.e. not just hostilities end but all necessary for sustainable peace. Yet
past problems/ limitations demand careful look at practicality/ suitability/ethics of outside
intervention in support of peace building in divided societies. Analyse variousmotivations behind
such intervention; then objectives: not just peace but also market democracy/ "politics of
reconciliation." Unhappy(Canadian)experience in Haiti dissected to draw lessons.
Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability
to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave
humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has
failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United
Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and
create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce
results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian
disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at
the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice
Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.
Paul R.Abramson & Ronald Inglehart Value Change in Global Perspective (Ann Arbor: Univ. of
Michigan Press 95):-makes statistical survey of most major countries, rich and poor, to
demonstrate that there is a generational trend for public opinion to change from primary concern
with Materialism(economic development, security, etc.) to Postmaterialism (democracy, human
rights). For another viable option available, so many can reflect the change in their global values,
see: Kimon Valaskakis et al., The Conserver Society: A Workable Alternative for the Future
(Toronto: Fitzhenry & Whiteside 79).
Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the
Unknown (Toronto: Time Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious:
17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists and academics. Aim is to survey where
scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be global
and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and
implications; "Third World" -relevant technology; genderdifferences; care of global commons
and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy forms; ethical computing;
"homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at
trends and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example
ofvaluable collections of what are in fact 21st-Century global issues, put together by good
general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions like anniversaries or
new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with
subjects global in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably
offer reading lists.
AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION
John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive
Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule"
(Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two
concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether
- in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of
mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While]Millennium African
Renaissance Programme[made South Africa's president Mbeki call firstfor]'critical examination
of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done
differently'" ,editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms
of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt
Africanregimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA
article stressesincreased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which
received about 1b poundsin bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new
technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on
peacekeeping. Business item notes although,when South Africa's present rulers still rebels
threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance
through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with
attempts to create new class of black businessmen" .Survey's analyses, whileconcentrating on
South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of
Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very
rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected
bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2)
apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In
addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and
poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world
country...Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped
with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with
leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not
just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses:(1)Land(Re)Distribution: with
apartheid,white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education:
takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in
world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatensnot just South Africans' security but very basis of their
society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem
trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from
60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative
action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, butracial gaps are probably
diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination;(6)Employment and Investment:
both face major shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution" ;"
only40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much
apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme
Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation
Commission provided neither, butoffered "day in court" ;(8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000
whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those staying generally do not
suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Coloureds complain
they are "not black enough" ; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and
African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and
income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.
Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign
AffairsVol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN USG for
Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina,
Afghanistan and Iraq. Providesanalysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At
War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly
Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ.
Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three
draw"attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and
practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not
enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction,
authors belie inherent complexities of task...Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their
historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/maintained. Yet
none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations."Essay is worth reading - as
a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.
AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES
The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global
society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS. To reach all media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.
John B. Alexander, Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York:
St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact
of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force.
Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together
with transnational/religiousbodies/groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or
socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical,
electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare.
Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis;
hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral
opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning" .
Mark Almond, Europe's Backyard War: The War in the Balkans(London: Heinemann
94):-combination of background information on post-Yugoslav conflicts and military/political
conduct to publication date. Highly critical of diplomatic actions of virtually all involved,
including most Yugoslav groups, UN and European bodies. Gives prescient warning of ominous
precedent set by failure in Balkans.
Philip G. Altbach and Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign
PolicyNo.144(Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing
millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries.
Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be
influenced by "worldly" visions. Despite new global concerns with terrorism" there is no holding
back the flow of students seekingeducation beyond their borders" ;Australia recently estimated
the "total number of international students will increase to 8m by 2025." Regarding content,"
literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate:business/management, engineering,
mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asian
countries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled throughdistance
education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey.
Leadingreceiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000),
Britain(223,000),France(135,000), Germany(185,000), US(547,000). Since most foreign students
pay for their own study/livingexpenses, first two depend on their income to help support public
universities. "Many migrants maintainstrong ties from abroad, some eventually return home, and
growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies by providing expertise
and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remains problem for many
poorer societies" . It may then be related to expenses that "increasingnumber[of potential
foreign student payers is]looking for new options in developing world" ;emergence
ofmega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of'brain trade'forever.
Lawrence K.Altman "Report Shows AIDS Epidemic Slowdown in 2005"New York Times 30 May
06:- "Newsurveys suggest that global AIDS epidemic has begun to slow, with decline in new HIV
infections in about 10 countries, leader of UNAID program said. Outside of those countries,..
number of new AIDS infections continues to rise or hover at its current pace. Meanwhile, public
health efforts are reaching only a small proportion of people at risk, Dr.Peter Piot, executive
director of UNAIDS, said at news conference in UN NYC ...India has 5.7m infected people and
South Africa 5.5m, but India's population far greater. Showing no sign of decline, South Africa
has a prevalence rate of about 19% of 47m people.In India, rate is less than 1% of its population
of 1.1b. Progress against AIDS in some regions represents dividends from a surge in financing
since 2001, when UN pledged its commitment to stem epidemic by 2010. Declaration called for
countries to report regularly on their responses to AIDS. This week, UNGAwill receive the
progress that 126 countries have said they have made. Report(op.cit.), most comprehensive
survey ever compiled from country data, pointed to the 2001 UN meeting as a turning point for
AIDS financing. In 2005,.. world spent $8.3b on AIDS, compared with $1.6b in 2001. 'We areseeing
the impact', Piot said. He cited increased condom use, a rise in postponement of sexual
intercourse and a decrease in number of sex partners as factors in slowing of epidemic.
Summarizing report's findings, Piot said '2005 was least bad year in the history of the AIDS
epidemic'... Despite thepositive trends, Piot reported grim findings from China, Indonesia, Papua
New Guinea, Russia andVietnam(op.cit.), with signs of outbreaks in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Ending the pandemic will depend largely on changing social norms like empowering women,
reducing stigma of the disease andencouraging a greater reduction in the number of sex
partners, report said. Most countries have strong foundations for building an effective response
against AIDS, report said, but systems to carry out plansremain inconsistent. Thoroughness of
the individual national reports varied, and many countries did not provide data for all
categories... Still, replies identified significant weaknesses, he said. Fewer than 50%of young
people achieved comprehensive knowledge levels about HIV, far fewer than the 90% goal.
Only9% of gay men and fewer than 20% of intravenous drug users received any kind of HIV
prevention help in 2005. Services to prevent HIV infections in infants have not scaled up as
rapidly as programs to provide antiretroviral therapy. Just 9% of pregnant women were covered...
Report shows that epicenterof the epidemic remains in sub-Saharan Africa. There epidemic has
reached peak, but incidence remains unacceptably high, Piot said. Across most of Africa, HIV
prevalence among pregnant women attendingclinics has remained roughly level for several
years. UN disputed contentions by some observers thatthe leveling off showed a turning point
in the AIDS epidemic in Africa... Piot said, 'actual number of people infected continues to rise
because of population growth'" ; Lawrence K.Altman "U.N. Urges Tripling of Funds by '08 to Halt
AIDS" NYT 01 Jun 06:- "Stopping epidemic of AIDS will require $22b/year by 2008 and possibly
more in following years, officials of UNAIDS program said. The $22b is nearly triplethe $8.3b
spent 05 by all sources, including governments and private sector. Urging that countries spend
more, UNSG Kofi Annan said a costlier and more sustained effort needed because AIDS
'hasspread further, faster and with more catastrophic long-term effects than any other disease'...
Of projectedfigure, half is needed for prevention and a quarter for treatment and care of infected
people. Remainderis for care of orphans, children at risk of becoming infected and program
costs. UNSG and Piot of UNAIDS spoke as UNGA began meeting aimed at renewing political
commitment and setting new goals for expenditures and for measuring progress... Annan urged
delegates to challenge countries trying to avoid goals that mention gay people, prostitutes,
intravenous-drug users and others at high risk of becoming infected. 'Governments concerned
need to be realistic and responsible', UNSG said. He also said that 'if we are here to try to end
the epidemic, we will not succeed by putting our head in the sandand pretending that these
people do not exist or they do not need help'... Report cards showed that most countries missed
more goals than they met. More than 20m have become infected since 2001 meeting.Now
countries must fundamentally change the way they think and deal with epidemic, moving from
crisis management to 'sustained attention and the kind of "anything it takes" resolve that
member states apply to preventing global financial meltdowns or wars' , Piot said... Global
Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS released a study showing that private companies have become
more likely to provide treatment for employees as cost of antiretroviral drugs has fallen over last
six years, to $140-$300/year,from $10,000. In African countries with a high prevalence, more than
70% of companies surveyed arefully subsidizing access to HIV treatment, coalition said.
Study...found increasing trend to expand such treatment to employees' dependents. Companies
also offering access to voluntary testing/counseling" ; Lawrence K.Altman & Elisabeth Rosenthal
"U.N. Strengthens Call for a Global Battle Against AIDS" NYT 02 Jun 06:- "[UNGA] adopted
strongly worded declaration [02 Jun] aimed at pressing nations of the worldto strengthen their
battle against AIDS, global pandemic [UNSG] called 'greatest challenge of our generation'.
Language of document surprised even anti-AIDS groups, which said that while it did not satisfy
all their objectives, they had feared it would be watered down... Nonbinding declaration reaffirms
commitments made in 01, when UN defined AIDS as far more than a medical issue, framing it in
terms of political/human rights/ economic survival... New document is political blueprint, not
plan of action.Calls for strong commitment to bolster the rights of women/girls so they can
protect themselves from infection with HIV... Declaration calls on countries to: use scientifically
documented prevention strategies, including condoms;make clean needles accessible to drug
users; take steps to provide universal access to prevention programs/ care/antiretroviral drugs.
Includes politically charged terms like 'condoms' /'vulnerable groups' , though those groups not
specified... Countries expected to measuretheir progress over next 5 years against targets to be
determined by UN... Said world will need to spend up to $23b/year by 2010... Earlier in day, UNSG
Annan delivered a gloomy assessment, saying world waslosing the battle. 'The epidemic
continues to outpace us' , he told packed UNGA. 'There are more new infections than ever
before; more deaths than ever before; more women/girls infected than ever before'... [US' s]
Mrs.Bush speech steered away from many of the criticisms that have been labled against
administration, notably that it promotes sexual abstinence over scientifically proven
strategies,particularly condom use. Indeed, she said, 'ABC'model - initials stand for abstain, be
faithful and usecondoms - had brought sharp declines in infections in Africa. Britain's
international development[minister] said in interview: abstinence alone did not work ...Dr. Peter
Piot [UNAIDS] said: while nodocument could make anyone '100% happy', final version was 'a
major advance'and far stronger thanweaker drafts circulating earlier in week" .
Sudhir Anand and Amartya K.Sen Sustainable Human Development: Concepts and
Priorities(New York: UNDP/ODS 96):-tries to provide rationale for bringing together narrowly
environmental viewof "sustainable" world and case for eliminating "inequities" in living
conditions. Argument for "human development" (pushed by UNDP/World Bank/this
bibliography)made well, but its role in population controland easing pressure on the planet's
carrying capacity mentioned only weakly and indirectly. Generaleconomic development( "overall
opulence" )criticized as "partisan" for failing "to take note of need for impartiality in allocating
entitlements" i.e.collective statistics hide unacceptable inequities. Imbalanced - or at least
imperfect - defence of key imperatives.
Chris Anderson, "The Young(stressing Youth and Age)" The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey
1-16):-explorescauses/ elements/global impact of major social trend, strong in North America,
spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan,
Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working
world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace
of change to...tearing down of traditional...order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position
to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment,
thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for
their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace ofchange(technological/social)favours young, since they
learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In
organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive,
initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant
updating/replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically;
exploit(mobile)skills; riskfutures; prefer opportunity to wealth/ security; demand/deserve
respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth's growing role/impact in
decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made
about NGOs' power being in knowledge]Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow;
increasingly they are leaders of today" .
Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating
of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration
of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing
adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it
does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs
/business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of
effort/agility/flexibility" .
Kofi A. Annan, "Two Concerns of Sovereignty: International Intervention in Humanitarian Crises"
The Economist18 Sep 99(49-50):-UNSG gives his views on basic issues. Inaction in Rwanda and
interventions in Kosovo(no authority) and East Timor(too little too late)all justify criticism. We
need consensus "not only... that massive and systematic violations of human rights must be
checked...but also on ways of deciding what action is necessary, and when, and by whom."
Critical points: "intervention" should not be understood as referring only to use of force; we
need redefinition of sovereignty and broader definition of national interests that "would induce
states to find greater unity in pursuit of common goals and values...today,collective interest is
national interest" ;if force is necessary, Council must uphold Charter; act "in defence of our
common humanity" ;ceasefires do not end commitments.
Kofi A. Annan, "Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" , Annual Report on
the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York:
DPI/2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global
efforts to foresee, prevent, or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN
activities over year to Sep 99, and selected plans and problems(in 130pp). Chapters address:
peace and security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights;
administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN
obligations/reforms/savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial
irresponsibility. HUMAN RIGHTS concerns form a major portion of the Report, providing virtually
the entire thrust of the chapter on International legal order(90-6)since it highlights the
International Criminal Court and the Tribunals for former Yugoslavia and Rwanda. Annan ends:"
the pursuit of development, the engagement with globalization, and the management of change
must all yield to human rights imperativesrather than the reverse. Respect for human rights..is
central to our mandate" (96).
Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium
Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:-
Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA
Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/.
Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing
humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with
them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New
millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since
interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to
make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and
lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease,
weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified
by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must
learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from
non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world
development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less
than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth;
all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV
infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of
100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa,
as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed
development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased
ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security
protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development,
human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by
enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and
lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart"
sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear
arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few,
little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by
efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target
of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit
of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food
production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with
joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education,
integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data.
VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs,
and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions,
humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and
foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit
information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform,
priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit:
Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence,
Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as
evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New
York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer
World" (51).
Kofi A. Annan, "Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization
2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep
99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the
United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress
and challenges at turn of millennium,and suggests ways in which international community can
work together to" better lives of people still left behind" .Introduction, summarizing 130-page
report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian
agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still
declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to
action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources.
(5)Reviewsanalysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6)
controversial economicbenefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared.
(7)Must be cooperative management ofglobal economic affairs through more effective
governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions,
civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/Security; Humanitarian
Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UNManagement.
Kofi A. Annan, Report of the [UN] Secretary-General to the Preparatory Committee for the
High-level International Intergovernmental Event on Financing for Development:-this
collaborative effort(officially UNGA Document A/AC.257/12)runs to 64 pages, makes 87
recommendations, and was commissioned bythe Millennium Summit to help focus discussion
at a Mar 2002 global meeting on development financing(still an" event" since it awaits an official
title). Involved directly in the report's preparation were: many parts of the UN proper(particularly
DESA, UNCTAD and UNDP); UN Agencies; the Bank, Fund and WTO; theregional development
banks; OECD; the Financial Stability Forum; many governments/otherstakeholders(arranged by
the UN regional commissions); the business community; and civil society organizations. Hence
it reflects extremely varied, expert and authoritative views - significant, since some proposals
are quite radical, even if presented solely on the responsibility of the UN Secretariat. The report
consists of an Introduction and six chapters, the latter perhaps being the agenda items of the
"event" : I. Mobilizing domestic financial resources for development; II. Mobilizing international
resources for development: foreign direct investment and other private flows; III. Trade; IV.
Increasing international financial cooperation for development through, inter alia, official
development assistance; V. Debt; VI. Addressing systemic issues: enhancing coherence and
consistency of the international monetary, financial and trading systems in support of
development. For highlights, see UN Press Release DEV/2275at: http://www.un.org/News/Press
/docs/2001/ dev2275.htm. The complete text(which explains all acronyms!)can also be
downloaded from the Web: http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.htm
orhttp://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.pdf. For three articles about the Report(highlighting the
dirty bits)see: Christopher S. Wren, "U.N. Report Proposes Steps to Fight Global Poverty" in New
York Times 30 Jan 01;Reuters, "Annan Offers Poor Nations 87 Ways to Lure Funds" NYT 30 Jan;
Wren, "The U.N. Offers 87 Remedies to Help Poor Nations Develop" NYT 04 Feb. The UNSG's
opening speech at the subsequentPrepcom meeting is reported in: Reuters "Annan: Poor
Nations Must Set Development Priorities" NYT 12 Feb. It describes his theme as: LDCs "should
play a greater role in setting policy and priorities in thefinancing of global development" and
cease to be "decided in clubs where only rich countries have real influence" . This issue is of
course a perennial one at the UN, where the contribution-weighted voting in Bretton Woods
bodies is seen as "grossly unfair" and "neo-colonialist" by aid recipients, whose very survival
may be at stake, but "absolutely essential" by the investment-oriented donors, who feel"
shareholders" have natural rights to determine where and how their own money is spent. Annan
aims to increase the relative role of" one-country-one-vote" UN fora(UNGA; ECOSOC)in making
broad global development policies and priorities. He also is very concerned to make foreign
investment in LDCs larger and less volatile as ODA continues its decline. Advising him is a
high-level panel(Zedillo, Rubin, Delors...).
Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG
offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level
Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary
of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many
concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects
they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary
interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are
evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our
responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them
on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]-
eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to
peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions
are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure
an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but
realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states,
ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" .
First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or
undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters:
economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil
war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl
crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly
enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such
attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as
strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation
period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year
could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza
could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to
all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need
collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers.
Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can
be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention
agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development
support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security
investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against
threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective
global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost
will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also
need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit
diseasetreatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against
bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen
biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective
action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk.
Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New isrange/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda
can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive
destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists:
articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action
intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of
intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use
to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent
recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk
of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end
development of domestic uranium enrichment and urged to voluntary time-limited moratorium
on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitor compliance with Non-Proliferation
Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN
far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than
in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue
helmets grows, need toboost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should
hasten efforts transforming existingforces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in
mediation/support peace agreement implementation.Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil
life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/
development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point
past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to give strategic focus
for workin states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN
must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic
guidelines/questions:(1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does
proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4)
Proportional means: force proposedminimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear
action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of
self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive actionagainst imminent threat. However if states
fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left
to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take actionearlier than past, when
asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet
recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but
protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of
non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic
cleansing/other comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly
60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new
dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs
far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective
response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate
context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything.
It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so;
report recommendsstrengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great
attention: UNSC reform.Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent
membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain
peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both
expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN
financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole; not expand veto,
which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead.
If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened
UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee
decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action
secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important:
ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on
economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission
better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and
all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but
world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works
efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium
Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most
important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level.
Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division
and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each
other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure
World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and
Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even
copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive
Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security:
Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation
conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org.
Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally
available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with
Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the
important UN report and its UNGA prospects.
"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's
04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security
issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies
towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly
influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or
presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western
national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex
chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared
and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's
Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and
Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6)
Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary
Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes.
(8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.
Clair Apodaca, Michael Stohl, George Lopez, "Moving Norms to Political Reality:
Institutionalizing Human Rights Standards through the United Nations System" (185-220)in The
Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century(New York: UN Univ.
98):-extremely useful study of UN human rights structures, treaties and activities, employing a
new sense that state legitimacy derives from internal order and regard for standards. Four main
UN purposes include promotion of human rights, set down in Universal Declaration(48)and
amplified in two International Covenants(76).All three now binding on all states. Many more
specific UN System treaties, with recent emphasis on Humanitarian Law.Growing human rights
roles of NGOs, High Commissioner and complex UN structures are explained.Reform proposals
involve structure, NGO protection and regional action.
Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random
House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical
reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current
struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This
book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04
May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal
conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes
himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly
all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully
placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography,
it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments:
"[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression
against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation
between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately
200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a
legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so
roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep...
initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century...
It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early
to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing
inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).
Associated Press,"China Refines Birth-Control Policy"New York Times 07 May 00:-this report
on a new government policy says China" hopes to limit its growing population to 1.4b people
in 2010 by refining" its current policy. This is an unlikely feat, given that the present official
figure of 1.25b may understate the real total by tens of millions, and experts believe the
population will actually peak about 1.6b around 2050. Beijing claims:" A more perfect control
system will be built and a better environment...created...[S]afe, effective and proper
contraceptive methods should be made available to women...Nevertheless, the population will
increase by 10m a year in the next few decades" . Officials already worry this will outstripfinite
supplies of water, farmland and other resources, requiring major grain imports, but an
unintended population-control factor has developed: boys being preferred, China may already
have 100m more males than females.
Associated Press, "Number of Refugees Grows Worldwide" New York Times 13 Jun 00:-World
Refugee Survey 2000, issued by prestigious US Committee for Refugees, claims that at end of
20th Century there were35m people worldwide "uprooted and in need of protection." Conflict
contributed 7m to this in 99 alone, and despite UN success in ending some long-term disputes
following end of Cold War, this estimated total had risen from 29m in 90. Moreover, of these,
13.7m are found in Africa(4.4m in Sudan alone).Another trend has been continually growing
number of refugees that for various reasons remain in their own countries:Internally Displaced
Persons. Identified IDPs now number at least 4m, and clearly demand higher priority from
UN-UNHCR since they are not afforded same legal protections and care as" international"
refugeesunder Geneva Conventions. On other hand, there is hope that some sources of refugees
and IDPs may bein sight of permanent solution. Elizabeth Rosenthal, "Famine in North Korea
Creates Steady Human Flow into China" NYT 10 Jun:-report on motives and stratagems of North
Korean refugees within/outside their country. Any moves towards Korean reconciliation could
have major and rapid effect on this crisis. For evenlonger-term look at issue of unwilling
migration, AP reports "Conference Addresses Migration" NYT 10 Jun:-experts Paris meeting
organized by Universal Academy of Cultures concluded "globalization demands greater moral
responsibility and intervening in sovereign nations is plausible response to misery that drives
populations beyond their borders." Those seeking political asylum increased from 250,000 in 87
to 900,000 in 92, but then declined to 388,000 in 98,perhaps reflecting growing influence of such
perceptionin UN. Meanwhile, if Europe's population falls 100m by 50, migration waves may
become beneficial.
Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of
five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on
urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and
Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda
principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities"
-no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul
meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and
since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities"
.Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to
reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .
Associated Press"EU Agency: Gypsies Suffer Discrimination"New York Times 07 Apr
06:-"Gypsies[henceforth Roma] remain among Europe's most discriminated-against people,
European Union's racism watchdog agency said [07 Apr]... Roma routinely denied jobs/
housing/education/health care, saidVienna-based EU Monitoring Center on Racism and
Xenophobia. Center's director... said Roma living in many of EU's 25 member states suffer
'systematic discrimination', and called for more intensive effort/greater political will to eliminate
the bias and help lift Roma communities out of poverty. Estimated 6.2m Roma live in Europe -
4.6m in central/eastern Europe - according to estimates by UN-affiliatedInternational
Organization for Migration. Last year... EU monitoring center said unemployment ran as high as
90% among Roma in some new EU members such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia,
and that worst discrimination happened when Roma tried to rent/buy property. ['T]erritorial
segregationis particularly acute', report said. Roma also tended to receive substandard medical
care... A globalconference of Prague-based International Romani Union - coalition of
organizations working to easethe plight of Roma - designated 08 Apr as International Day of
Roma in 1990"
Associated Press "U.S. Says Missile - Defense System Limited" New York Times 22 Jun 06:- "US
said [22 Jun] missile-defense system under development has 'limited operational capability'to
protect against weapons such as the long-range missile North Korea is said to be near firing.
National Security AdviserStephen Hadley underscored US calls for North Korea to abandon any
plans for testing the missile believed capable of reaching US soil. 'We're watching it very
carefully and preparations are very far along', Hadley said... In Washington, a top Pentagon
official said that a missile launch would be 'aprovocation and a dangerous action'that would lead
US to impose 'some cost'on North Korea. [Tough UNSC resolution was later passed after a short
flight by Taepodong-2 missile.] Hadley, who briefed reporters while traveling with President
Bush in Europe[to G8 summit],.. spurned a suggestion by former Defense Secretary William
Perry that US launch a pre-emptive strike against the North Korean missile...US has spent
hundreds of millions of dollars on missile defense systems during the past few decades.'We
have a missile defense system... what we call a long-range missile defense system that is
basicallya research, development, training, test kind of system', Hadley said. 'It does... have
some limited operational capability. [P]urpose, of course, of a missile defense system is to
defend... the territory of US from attack'" . AP "U.S. Military Intercepts Missile in Test" "A Navy
ship on [22 Jun] intercepted amedium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off
Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program, the military said. Missile Defense
Agency said test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that
North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. USS Shiloh detected a
medium-range missile after it was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai,
then fired a Standard Missile-3 interceptor. Interceptor shot down the target warhead after it
separated from its rocket booster, more than 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 250 miles
northwest of Kauai, the agency said in a statement. The test marked the seventh time in eight
attempts the military has successfully shot down a missile target with an interceptor fired from
a ship.It also was the second successful attempt by a ship to shoot down a separating target.
Medium- andlong-range ballistic missiles typically have at least two stages, increasing the
challenge for interceptors,which must distinguish between the body of the missile and the
warhead... Japan agreed to jointly develop missile defense technology with US late last year,
broadening an earlier bilateral research pact" .
Associated Press "North Korea Knows How to Get Attention" New York Times 08 Jul 06:- "North
Korea is well practiced in getting some of what it wants through provocation. Bullying through
a bullhorn has worked time and again for a small nation with an outsized military force and an
even bigger capacity forbluster and threat. It's called coercive diplomacy. North Korean-style,
it has involved antagonizing everyone on and over the horizon, foes and allies alike, and then
pulling back. Sometimes just in the nick of time... That's the case now... 'When diplomacy is
stalled, North escalates tension to break thedeadlock', Wonhyuk Lim, Brookings Institution
fellow,.. says in analysis... Risk is that North's attention-grabbing actions may bring bombs in
reprisal instead of diplomacy, as almost happened in Clinton [era].In 2003, North pulled out of
a nuclear arms treaty, vowing to bring 'defeat and ruin'on US, warning of WWIII and declaring,
'Let us see who will win and who will be defeated in the fire-to-fire standoff'. This was followed
by the first substantive talks between the two nations since President Bush came to office.As
a propaganda gambit, the missile tests [04 Jul 06] were hardly a smashing success... North's
starlong-range missile is said to have failed like a bum firecracker on its mission of defiance and
military advancement. Half-dozen tests of shorter range missiles were conducted to uncertain
effect, but no failures as far as known. Results, in short, spoke to North's apparent ability to
wreak havoc in its region and its inability any time soon to reach US mainland with missile. For
US, 'main risk seems to be that North is beginning early testing of a missile that could throw
equivalent of a rock at Alaska', said AnthonyCordesman of Center for Strategic and International
Studies. Yet North has massive combat forces on border with South; long-range artillery capable
of reaching Japan and destroying up to 40% of Southeconomy; and hug |