Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.

James Adams, The New Spies: Exploring the Frontiers of Espionage(London: Hutchinson, 1994):-intelligence is of major and growing importance to UN activities as the System attempts more preventive and advisory acts, and gets directly impacted by violence and crime. Its probably unavoidable reliance on members states' intelligence systems makes the rapidly-evolving trends in the latter of unusual relevance. This survey of developments by"the big three" powers in intelligence(US/Britain/Russia)is of special value. Books also by Herman, Richelson and Shulsky(op.cit.).

James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/religious bodies/ groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning" .

Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.

Lawrence K.Altman "Chimp Virus Is Linked to H.I.V." New York Times 26 May 06:- "By studying chimpanzee droppings in remote African jungles, scientists reported [25 May] they have found direct evidence of amissing link between a chimpanzee virus and the one that causes human AIDS. Scientists have long suspected that chimpanzees are the source of the human AIDS pandemic because at least one subspecies carries a simian immune deficiency virus closely related to HIV, the virus that causes AIDS... The genetic and immunologic tests were developed in stages over the past seven years to help tracethe evolution of HIV and solve the mysterious origins of AIDS. [S]tudy combined genetics and epidemiology... Team's findings show 'for the first time a clear picture of the origin of HIV-1 and theseeds of the AIDS pandemic'. HIV-1 is the virus that causes the vast majority of AIDS cases in the world... Studies estimate that the human AIDS virus jumped species 50 to 75 years ago. But no one knowswho the first infected person was or how that person acquired HIV. The earliest HIV infection wasdocumented in 1959 in an unidentified man in Kinshasa[, Congo]. Team theorized that HIV was first transmitted locally somewhere in west-central Africa. Because the subspecies of chimpanzees... livesin the wild in Cameroon, Gabon and Congo Republic, the first infection could have been in any of those areas... The communities with a high prevalence of infected chimpanees were located south of theSangha River, which flows into the Congo river and on to Kinshasa. That led... to the theory that someinfected person carried HIV from a remote area to Kinshasa, where it was then passed on. It is not known whether chimpanzees infected with SIVcpz become ill... More collections were needed in other vast areas of Africa to provide a clearer picture of the evolution of AIDS and to determine if there wereother viruses that could cause epidemics like AIDS" .

Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" , all supported by optimum use of information.

John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, edit., In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age(Santa Monica: RAND, 1997):-while addressed to US concerns, issues raised are global. Included are: thenew world epoch of conflict will revolve around knowledge; the information revolution, being both organizational and technological, empowers small, non-state, networked actors vis-a-vis hierarchies(i.e. states); threats are diffused, nonlinear and complex; conflict tends militarily towards "cyberwar" , sociallyto diverse but comprehensive "netwar" ; new trends are found in: state, business, and NGO roles,information warfare, global crime and terrorist capacity. Information on balance promotes peace. All these developments affect the UN role in maintaining peace and security.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Associated Press, "UN Council Endorses Gun Control" New York Times 24 Sep 99:-on 24 Sep Security Council unanimously endorsed report by SG Annan on ways to reduce global stock of 500m handguns, rifles, shotguns and assault weapons. "Sweeping gun-control measures" reportedly included ban on private ownership of assault rifles presumably in wording US could accept. Nevertheless purpose of action while not binding, is "to increase pressure on world governments to impose stricter gun control measures and reduce arms trade." Significant, with 200m+ firearms owned by US citizens, that Annan stated clearly: "easyavailability of small arms has in many cases contributed to violence..." US Secretary of State apparently only spoke of tightening international/illicit arms traffic. Over 3m, mostly civilians, have been killed since 89in conflicts fought with only small arms.

Associated Press, "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" in New York Times 12 Jan 00:- article deals with a real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal. Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross the earth's orbit. This number produces about a 1% chance of one hitting the earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material believed left over from the formation of the solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of a mile to six miles, they are big enough to "wreak global disaster" . NASA has just lowered the estimated numberof such killers to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within the next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able to destroy cities. Britain has just set up a risk assessment committee. AP, "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" in NYT 18 Sep 00:-the committee mentioned above is reported to have urged the British government to seek international partners to fund a powerful new telescopeto be stationed in the southern hemisphere and governments should launch joint studies to assess how to destroy an object on a collision course with the planet. The committee estimated that a "wide object" crashes into our planet every 10,000 years with the force of a 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a little[money]into making certain we know if there is a danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet" .

Associated Press"Maritime Authorities OK Tracking Measure"New York Times 19 May 06:-"Maritime authorities have agreed upon new legislation that will allow for long-range tracking of merchant ships - a key measure in tackling the threat of seaborne terrorist attacks, the UN International Maritime Organization said [19 May]. A total of 166 countries have agreed to the new rules for merchant vessels, which would also allow countries to conduct surveillance on vessels suspected of carrying illicit cargo.Organization said signatory governments had provisionally agreed to the changes in the Safety of Life at Sea convention... 'Ships will be required to transmit their identity, location and date and time of theirposition to be tracked by satellite', said UN shipping agency's external relations officer... New legislation will mean a ship's position can be identified up to 1,000 nautical miles from shore. Current systems arelimited to a range of a few hundred nautical miles... Merchant vessels trading in international waters willneed to switch to new long-range system by Jan 08, offering maritime authorities a system similar tothat used by air traffic controllers";

Associated Press "U.S. Says Missile - Defense System Limited" New York Times 22 Jun 06:- "US said [22 Jun] missile-defense system under development has 'limited operational capability'to protect against weapons such as the long-range missile North Korea is said to be near firing. National Security AdviserStephen Hadley underscored US calls for North Korea to abandon any plans for testing the missile believed capable of reaching US soil. 'We're watching it very carefully and preparations are very far along', Hadley said... In Washington, a top Pentagon official said that a missile launch would be 'aprovocation and a dangerous action'that would lead US to impose 'some cost'on North Korea. [Tough UNSC resolution was later passed after a short flight by Taepodong-2 missile.] Hadley, who briefed reporters while traveling with President Bush in Europe[to G8 summit],.. spurned a suggestion by former Defense Secretary William Perry that US launch a pre-emptive strike against the North Korean missile...US has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on missile defense systems during the past few decades.'We have a missile defense system... what we call a long-range missile defense system that is basicallya research, development, training, test kind of system', Hadley said. 'It does... have some limited operational capability. [P]urpose, of course, of a missile defense system is to defend... the territory of US from attack'" . AP "U.S. Military Intercepts Missile in Test" "A Navy ship on [22 Jun] intercepted amedium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program, the military said. Missile Defense Agency said test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. USS Shiloh detected a medium-range missile after it was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, then fired a Standard Missile-3 interceptor. Interceptor shot down the target warhead after it separated from its rocket booster, more than 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 250 miles northwest of Kauai, the agency said in a statement. The test marked the seventh time in eight attempts the military has successfully shot down a missile target with an interceptor fired from a ship.It also was the second successful attempt by a ship to shoot down a separating target. Medium- andlong-range ballistic missiles typically have at least two stages, increasing the challenge for interceptors,which must distinguish between the body of the missile and the warhead... Japan agreed to jointly develop missile defense technology with US late last year, broadening an earlier bilateral research pact" .

Associated Press "North Korea Knows How to Get Attention" New York Times 08 Jul 06:- "North Korea is well practiced in getting some of what it wants through provocation. Bullying through a bullhorn has worked time and again for a small nation with an outsized military force and an even bigger capacity forbluster and threat. It's called coercive diplomacy. North Korean-style, it has involved antagonizing everyone on and over the horizon, foes and allies alike, and then pulling back. Sometimes just in the nick of time... That's the case now... 'When diplomacy is stalled, North escalates tension to break thedeadlock', Wonhyuk Lim, Brookings Institution fellow,.. says in analysis... Risk is that North's attention-grabbing actions may bring bombs in reprisal instead of diplomacy, as almost happened in Clinton [era].In 2003, North pulled out of a nuclear arms treaty, vowing to bring 'defeat and ruin'on US, warning of WWIII and declaring, 'Let us see who will win and who will be defeated in the fire-to-fire standoff'. This was followed by the first substantive talks between the two nations since President Bush came to office.As a propaganda gambit, the missile tests [04 Jul 06] were hardly a smashing success... North's starlong-range missile is said to have failed like a bum firecracker on its mission of defiance and military advancement. Half-dozen tests of shorter range missiles were conducted to uncertain effect, but no failures as far as known. Results, in short, spoke to North's apparent ability to wreak havoc in its region and its inability any time soon to reach US mainland with missile. For US, 'main risk seems to be that North is beginning early testing of a missile that could throw equivalent of a rock at Alaska', said AnthonyCordesman of Center for Strategic and International Studies. Yet North has massive combat forces on border with South; long-range artillery capable of reaching Japan and destroying up to 40% of Southeconomy; and huge stocks of chemical weapons as well as its rising nuclear weapons capability. [North]fields world's fifth largest army, behind China, US, Russia and India. It is considered no match in any protracted fight with South Korea's lethal modern forces, US' s unmatched power or a devastating combination of both. Still any conflict could bring horrific consequences to both sides and risk pittingChina against US [like 1950-53 Korean War?].Cordesman protests tendency to regard Kim Jong Il as areckless poseur without a purpose. 'North... has reminded everyone of just how serious a threat Northcan be, how limited most military options are, and how serious the risks of any major war would be',Cordesman said. North's declaration in 1993 that it would pull out of NPT brought peninsula close to war and isolated the country through international censure, in the process leading to breakthroughnegotiations with Washington that produced agreement to freeze North's nuclear activities in exchange for US energy assistance. North's first test of a multistage rocket in 1998, also a flop, spurred bilateraltalks. Current framework of six-nation negotiations set up after North resumed its plutonium program in 2002 and expelled international inspectors [IAEA]. That pattern of edging toward confrontation, then edging back, has persisted, always accompanied by tough words. More are being heard now" .

Associated Press "Rumsfeld Cautions on Missile Shield" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "[US] Defense Secretary Donald H.Rumsfeld sounded a note of caution about expectations that interceptors poised in underground silos [in Fort Greely, Alaska] would work in the event of a missile attack by North Korea...Ten silos house single 54-foot-long missile interceptors. If ordered by [US] president,.. one or more ofthe rockets would blast into the sky and race at more than 18,000 mph to launch a small 'kill vehicle'atan enemy warhead as it soared through space. An 11th interceptor is to be installed. [Asked whether ready for use against a North Korean missile,] Rumsfeld said he would not be fully persuaded until themultibillion dollar defense system has undergone more complete and realistic testing. [He said] some elements of the missile defense system are yet to come on line, including some of the radars and other sensors used to track the target missile,.. but stressed that advisors... have told him they believe it will work as designed in the event of an actual missile attack. [On 31 Aug] an interceptor based at a second site [in California] is scheduled to be tested against a target missile launched into the Pacific from Alaska's Kodiak Island. That will be the first full-up test of the latest version of the interceptor and its 'kill vehicle', a device attached to the nose of the interceptor. [T]he 'kill vehicle'is designed to use its own propulsion system and optical sensors to lock onto its target and, by ramming into it at high speed,obliterate the warhead and any payload it might carry. [This] test also will be first use of an early-warning radar... to provide the data required to put the interceptor on a proper path toward its target... A furthertest, now scheduled for Dec, will try for an intercept. At a news conference, Rumsfeld said that North Korea's leaders showed, by their test-launch of multiple missiles on 04 Jul 06, a determination to'continue to improve their capability and to threaten and attempt to blackmail other people'. He said theyalso are a threat to spread missile technology to terrorists. 'I think the real threat that North Korea poses in the immediate future is more one of proliferation than a danger to South Korea', he said... Rumsfeld said US intelligence about the intentions of North Korean leaders is not very good, but he said it is clearthat the overall condition of the North Korean military has deteriorated" ; David S.Cloud "Rumsfeld Sees Some Progress in Missile Plan" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said [in Fort Greely, Alaska] that while the fledging US ballistic missile defense system was becoming more capable,he wanted to see a successful full-scale test before declaring it able to shoot down a ballistic missile...Bush administration has taken the unusual step of deploying the system which is designed to shoot down a limited number of missiles before testing is completed and before all radars and sensors necessary to track incoming missiles are in place. Rumsfeld [said] system was aimed at protecting against attacks from North Korea and Iran, which he called 'rogue states that are intent on developing long-range ballistic missiles' ... The goal this week is to see if sensors in the so-called kill vehicle can recognize an incoming warhead, not to actually hit it... But... it employed a target that in its size andspeed was representative of missiles that might be fired at US. In last two flight tests, the system haltedthe firing sequence before the interceptor missile left its silo... Even so, after the second failed test in Feb 05, the system was taken down until Dec 06. [A]s many as 40 are supposed to be installed by next year. The other interceptor site is... in California, where two interceptors are in silos... Bushadministration is also looking at locations for an interceptor site in Europe that would protect US and parts of Europe from missiles launched from Mideast. [C]ould be in place in four years if Congressprovides the money... Sergei Ivanov, defense minister of Russia, [also in Alaska] did not directly criticize US system, but called for 'transparency'by Bush administration, a term meant to convey Russia's concern about any modifications to the system that could take its capabilities beyond stopping a small number of missiles" ;

Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary'describes wide variety of military activities, many of which bear little resemblance to those of today's... corporate endeavours that perform logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more". "The Bush Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility" . "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate security contractors to greater or lesser degrees ... Contractors are accountable to range of employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace" -NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably. Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity... requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO. "Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use... Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them". "Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next fortune to be found?".

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):- former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

J. Marshall Beier and Steven Mataija edit., Cyberspace and Outer Space: Transitional Challenges for Multilateral Verification in the 21st Century (Toronto: Centre for International and Security Studies, York Univ. 97):-based on papers commissioned for/presented at 14th Annual Ottawa NACD Verification Symposium, sponsored by Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. Titles of 21 Papers/Chapters as follows: Keynote Address: Meeting the Multilateral Proliferation Challenge Through United Nations Actions(Gustavo Zlauvinen);(1)Where Are We Now; Where Are We Going in Arms Control?(Jonathan Dean);(2)The 1997 Multilateral Arms Control Agenda and ACDA Priorities(Thomas Graham, Jr.);(3)The Interface Between Treaties and Regimes: Challenges for Evaluation, Verification, and Implementation(Patricia Bliss McFate);(4)Significant Multilateral NACD Agreements: The Scope and Challenge of Implementation(Richard Guthrie);(5)Multilateral Control Regimes: Diverse Purposes and Congruent Processes(Gordon K.Vachon);(6)Non-Weaponisation of Space:An International Imperative(F.R.(Ron)Cleminson);(7)Proliferation Challenges of Cyberspace(David Mussington);(8)Information Revolution, Military and Arms Control(Jeffrey R.Cooper; Christopher Burton);(9)Virtual Security: Technical Oversight, Simulated Foresight, and Political Blindspots in Infosphere(James Der Derian);(10)Arms Control and Future of International Security(Brad Roberts);(11)Verification: An Active Role for UN(Alan Crawford);(12)Aerial Surveillance in Sinai Field Mission, Multinational Force and Observers, and UN Special Commission on Iraq: Issues and Commonalities(Rene Unger);(13)Spaceborne Imagery: A Universal, Effective, and Cost-Efficient Tool for Ongoing Monitoring and Verification(Phillip J.Baines);(14)Summary of Results from 1996 Workshop on Use of Satellite Overhead Imagery in Verification(Peter Stibrany);(15) "93+2"(IAEA)Critique(Jason Cameron);(16)Light Weapons: New Focus for Arms Control and Disarmament(David DeClerq);(17)Russian Crisis and Prospects for Arms Control(Sergei Plekanov);(18)Future Challenges for Multilateral Arms Control: A Case Study on Korea(George Lindsay; Jim Bayer);(19)The Multilateral Dimension of'Korean Problem'(George Lindsay);(20)Symposium Summary(Jacqueline Simon).Editorial Foreword offers brief outlines.

J. Bowyer Bell, The Dynamics of the Armed Struggle(London: Frank Cass 98):-on mind-set/internal mechanisms of underground groups similar to Bell's speciality, IRA; broader relevance is limited. "Struggle" apparently denotes any violent acts by any rebels against authority, from terrorism to full-scale warfare. Mentioned are those who bomb civilians in crowds/aircraft/buses/large buildings, throughguerrilla groups that massacre/coerce entire populations, to regular(winning)armies(e.g. those of Washington/Bolivar/Lenin/Giap/Khmer Rouge/Eritrea)if initially irregular. Terrorism is not key tactic of choice but only unavoidable. With these limitations, eloquently described: Struggle's Nature, Arena, Analysis/Reality, Faith's Galaxy(support), Recruitment, Individuals, Organization, Command/ Control, Maintenance, Communications, Deployment, Intelligence, Campaigns, "Enemy" , End-games, Dream's Dynamic.

Samuel R.Berger"Foreign Policy for a Democratic President" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3 (May/Jun 04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime, andneeds/opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended)regime. Most issues discussed of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign entities, particularlyNATO/UN/international law. This mentions those of global importance discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed style and its gratuitous unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims, embittered even those abroad most likely to embrace US values. New US regime "no moreurgent task than to restore...global moral and political authority, so when we decide to act we canpersuade others to join us. Achieving reversal will require forging new strategic bargain with closest allies...Democratic approach to resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improving flawed agreements rather than ripping them up" .US policy towards Israel-Palestine conflictmust return with energy/urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq," Bush administration'sunilateralist approach has let allies off hook: given them excuse to shirk these and other global responsibilities. Democratic administration would not be so dismissive of allies on issues that matter to them" since exercises truly international rather than exclusively US. Similar approaches are relevant to spread of weapons of mass destruction(WMD)." Democratic administration should use every tool at disposal to prevent WMD threats from arising before force becomes only option" . Listed issues include Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program with Russia, and "global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites" .Others sites described are North Korea and Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add "new bargain" helping non-nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.

Bruce D. Berkowitz, "War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat" Foreign AffairsVol.79/No.3(May/Jun 00) :-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks(and defending your own)have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspectof world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civiliansociety depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing devicelinked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/ technology usable for computer warfarekeep improving; lasers/microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policyissues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and defense.

Christoph Bertram, "Multilateral Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution" Survival Vol.37/No.4(Winter 95-96):-examines potential role of UN etc. through study of recent military conflicts. Seeks to determine most successful conditions to prevent or halt conflict, and how military force can best be used to this end.

Richard K. Betts, "The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?" Foreign AffairsVol.83/No.3(May/ Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use, much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence-commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and uncertainty about just whatsomething could be...At end of day, strongest defense against intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good sense, good character, and good mental habits of senior officials" .Not mentioned in FA, but relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers" (Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need? Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton).Something to be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right Man?" (26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism. President Bush has nominatedCongressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist 28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each responsible for different phase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong; some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human intelligence-gathering.

Bruce G.Blair, Harold A.Feiveson and Frank N.vonHippel "Taking Nuclear Weapons Off Hair-Trigger Alert" Scientific American Nov 97(74-81):-on current status of US/Russian strategic nuclear forces. Many still on high alert status: 5,000+nuclear weapons ready to fire at each other within 30 minutes. Also, much Russian equipment in dangerously deteriorated condition -accidental/mistaken launches more likely.Proposes US unilaterally "de-alerts" missiles/ increasing time needed to prepare them for launch/allow verification of their status. Russian historical precedent would be: follow suit. For almost identical proposals to put missiles "in escrow" see Frye/Manning/Turner(op.cit.).

Christopher Bright, "Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization" in Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-this essay summarizes Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton & Co., 1998). Bright claims: "World trade has become the primary driver of one of the most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of foreign, invasive species are hitch-hiking through the global trading network aboard ships, planes, and railroad cars...This' biological pollution'is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions" (50). Counter-policies largely ineffective, control mechanisms(UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes the situation ever worse. Bright offersmuch information: animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda:control ballast release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).

William J. Broad, "Giant Leap for Private Industry: Spies in Space" New York Times 13 Oct 99:-described as "one of most significant developments in history of space age" with potential to be "revolutionary" ,Space Imaging Inc., private company owned by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, recently exhibited photograph, taken by Eastman Kodak camera and telescope system, from its own satelliteorbiting at 400 miles that shows details only meter in size. Hailed as world's first private spy satellite,image sharpness reportedly rivals acts of military spy satellites. Pentagon expected to be main customer: such photos can aid detection of countries trying to set off underground nuclear explosions in secret, as well as help geographers, urban planners, etc. Three other companies plan to put similar satellites in orbit in a year, and perhaps dozen may fly in next decade. Photo prices already being quoted. [Photo intelligence was valuable as early as WWI and has proved critical in every subsequent war. What is new is its rapidly growing value for hundreds of civilian purposes.]

William J. Broad," Maybe We Are Alone in the Universe, After All" in New York Times 8 Feb 00:-in one SETI(search for extraterrestrial intelligence) project alone, 1.6m people in 224 countries have donated 165,000 years computer time to analyse signals from space picked up by one radio telescope. The Economist 29 Jul 00"Divide and Conquer" (77-8):brings the project up-to-date by reporting that over 2m computers are involved and that in the 15 months since its launch 345,000 years' worth of computer time have been put in. This article is more detailed on the enormous technical and economic potential of "distributed computing" . For instance, the machines involved are" collectively the equivalent of a computer operating at around ten million million calculations a second, about ten times faster than any conventional supercomputer. Meanwhile, planets of one sort or another are being located at an accelerating rate by astronomers, while astrobiologists estimate our galaxy could include a million advanced societies; the universe: 10 trillion. On the other hand, in their book "Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe" (New York: Copernicus, 2000), Drs. D.C.Brownlee and P.D.Ward claim recent scientific data imply humans may be alone in the cosmos. They do not question that "life is an inherent property of matter,as most scientists believe" , and" strongly encourage" SETI work to test their hypothesis, but argue Earth's "composition and stability are extraordinarily rare. Most everywhere else, the radiation levels are too high, the right chemical elements too rare.., the hospitable planets too few...and the rain of killer rocks toointense for life ever to have evolved into advanced communities" , though microbes may survive in many places. Debate is lively and fascinating.

William J. Broad and David E. Sanger "As Nuclear Secrets Emerge, More Are Suspected" New York Times26 Dec 04:- extraordinary article, over six printed pages long, that contains so much fascinating material thatsummary is not feasible. Following material from item's beginning and end, however. "When experts fromUS and [UN's]International Atomic Energy Agency[IAEA]came upon blueprints for 10 kiloton atomic bomb in files of Libyan weapons program earlier this year, they found themselves caught between gravity/pettiness. Discovery gave experts new appreciation of audacity of rogue nuclear network led by A. Q. Khan, a chief architect of Pakistan's bomb. Intelligence officials had watched Dr. Khan for years andsuspected he was trafficking in machinery for enriching uranium to make fuel for warheads. But detailed design represented new level of danger, particularly since Libyans said he had thrown it in as deal-sweetener when he sold them $100 million in nuclear gear...Nearly a year after Dr. Khan's arrest, secrets of his nuclear black market continue to uncoil, revealing a vast global enterprise. But inquiry has beenhampered by discord between Bush administration and nuclear watchdog[IAEA], and by Washington'sconcern that if it pushes too hard for access to Dr. Khan, national hero in Pakistan, it could destabilize ally. As result, much of urgency has been sapped from investigation, helping keep hidden full dimensions of activities of Dr. Khan and his associates...Worried about what is still unknown, IAEA quietly setting up...Covert Nuclear Trade Analysis Unit, agency officials disclosed. It has about half dozen specialists looking for evidence of deals by Khan network or its imitators. "I would not be surprised to discover thatsome countries pocketed some centrifuges," Dr ElBaradei[IAEA]. "They may have considered it a chance of a lifetime to get some equipment and thought,'Maybe...good for rainy day.'"

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Robert Buckman, Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.

Barry A. Burciul, "UN Sanctions: Policy Options for Canada" Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1(Fall 98):-thorough, global effort to improve sanctions, in response to tough facts:(1)sanctions rarely achieve ends, and often cause unnecessary pain;(2)serve as relatively cheap and risk-free ways to meet pressurefor "action" ;(3)targeted sanctions often work better than comprehensive. Priorities: discourage sanctionsif more constructive, humane alternatives exist; ensure strong/targeted; always consider innocentcivilians. Ideas: wider range of threats, but sanctions high-cost, so need broad multilateral coalition plus regional/NGO support; humane sanctions more effectively gain essential support; target states/personsmust be fully understood, to avoid counterproductive action and find optimum means (travel, sports, culture ban, arms embargo, even violence); better as deterrent/preventive/threat than as coercion; "sanctions forum" studies options/support/strategic planning using pooled intelligence to judge hot spots/timelimits/temporary tariffs/lessons learned/finance levers; "humanitarian limits" must protect NGOs, determine and police exemptions; enforcement must be rapid/specific/ coordinated/committed/informed, and include border surveys.

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).

Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".

Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). In knowledge-dominated world, intimately tied together electronically, both communications intelligence and security will become paramount to governments, business and all kinds of organizations(legal or criminal). Biggest challenges for all will be:(1)winning constant technological competition for access vs. secrecy; and (2)overcoming information overload to find, select, and interpret right stuff.

David Callahan Unwinnable Wars: American Power and Ethnic Conflict(New York: Hill & Wang 97):-while addressed to US leaders, fine analysis/recommendations apply to UN and its active members. Thesis: recent trend for intra-state ethnic violence will continue - if decrease. All states have interest in ending - ideally, preventing - such wars. UN must be empowered to play more effective role, and greater capacity for using standing forces, in managing internal conflicts. Regional bodies, UN financing, arms-trade control, cooperation with NGOs, and aid to failed states, must all be strengthened. Diplomacy/intelligence(mainly analysis)must be updated - and cooperate with UN.

Canadian Council on International Law and The Markland Group edit. Treaty Compliance: Some Concerns and Remedies(London: Kluwer Law International 98):-papers/recommendations from meeting on "Compliance Systems for Disarmament Treaties" held under editors' auspices, Toronto 95. Papers revised/ expanded/updated. Essence of Recommendations: (A)Biological/ Chemical Weapons Treaties: (1)guidelines on limitations of defensive research; (2)CWC national penal legislation should also bind governments; (3)study whether mid-spectrum agents fit BWC or CWC; (4)UN Center for Disarmament should be able to tabulate/ disseminate CBM data for BWC; (5)BWC scrutinize compliance reports after technical analysis; (6)citizen compliance concerns should be recognized; (7)BWC/CWC parties should disseminate treaty obligations using NGO/foundations' help; (8)legal assistance treaties to combat anti-BWC/CWC transnational conspiracies. (B)Nuclear Treaties: (1)IAEA should reinforce special inspections; (2)increase IAEA budget; (3)security assurances against WMD threat/use; (4)help involve public/science community in verification.(C)Humanitarian/Human Rights Treaties: (1)compliance/ verification: be expert, automatically triggered, and respond to citizen/NGO/government information; (2)NGOs: participate fully in review conferences; (3)national legal regimes: ensure: treaty implementation; individuals/groups get effective access/redress; legal profession knows scope/ availability of international legal standards; (4)arms control treaties: provide for NGO information; (5)compliance/sanctions: use trade mechanisms, weapons producers, financial institutions; (6)effective dissemination of human rights/arms agreements: be monitored by independent global body. Papers' Essence: Kim S. Carter, Apply Humanitarian Law Compliance/ Enforcement to Arms Treaties; James F. Keeley, Compliance and the NPT: Safeguards/Supply Controls; Christine Elwell, Trade/Environment Compliance Measures Enhance Conventional Arms Treaties(Landmines-UN Peacekeeping); Douglas Scott/A.Walter Dorn, CWC Compliance Regime-Summary/Analysis; Nicholas A. Sims, Strengthen BWC/ CWC Compliance Regimes.

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report(New York: Carnegie Corporation 97):-while containing little particularly original or radical, concentrates on making well-argued and convincing case for much more and earlier preventive diplomacy, particularly by UN. Among proposals(all op.cit.)from well-qualified and independent membership: better intelligence for/by UN; more S-G personal initiatives; better-targeted economic sanctions; "inducements" for peace; use of conditionality; preventive deployments; UN rapid reaction force; non-deployed nuclear weapons( "in escrow" );tighter verification for all arms treaties; making development more sustainable; rule of law; involvement by NGOs, religions, science, schools, business, media.

Peter, Lord Carrington et al. Words to Deeds: Strengthening the U.N.'s Enforcement Capabilities - Final Report of the International Task Force on the Enforcement of U.N. Security Council Resolutions(New York: UNA-USA 97):- ten world figures reached constructive and expert consensus with genuine prospects of implementation. Among 29 conclusions: give priority to preventive diplomacy and strengthened enforcement machinery; UNSC primacy for enforcement to be respected and reinforced; Chapter VIIresolutions to be clear, specific, consistent, unambiguous, realistic and well-supervised, to includeoperational plans, regular consultations with states involved and world-class experts, and securely use and share all sources of relevant information; resolutions on non-military sanctions to be specific, fully costedfor all affected, monitored, given a timeframe, focused if possible, and to draw on expert advice; military operations to have very clear mandate, strategic oversight, post-conflict follow-up and be decisive; overhaul Military Staff Committee to give UNSC best advice, and to consult with others involved; since for now ad hoc coalitions more likely than standing UN or stand-by forces, develop capability inventory, a roster of earmarked units, a common doctrine, rules of engagement and training, and tighter UNSC oversight; support regional bodies with preventive measures, financial, material, and logistic help, and better inter-group coordination.

Ashton Carter, John Deutch & Philip Zelikow "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6(Nov/Dec 98):-distillation of Universities Study Group on Catastrophic Terrorism reportpublished by Stanford University. Version will also appear as chapter in forthcoming Preventive Defense: An American Security Strategy for the 21st Century by Ashton Carter and William Perry. All(distinguished) members of Study Group are listed in footnote. Conclusions are: terrorism using weapons of mass destruction has moved "from far-fetched horror to a contingency that could happen next month" ; particularly with biological weapons, "technology is more accessible, and society is more vulnerable" ; elaborate "networks have developed among organized criminals, drug traffickers, arms dealers, money launderers, [thus]creating infrastructure for[such]terrorism around the world" . While recommendations directed mainly at urgent US action, all fall into universal categories: intelligence/warning; prevention/deterrence;management of crises and consequences. All needs international/global cooperation.

Ashton B.Carter "How To Counter WMD" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.5(Sep/Oct 04):-ex-US Assistant Secretary of Defense (under Clinton)and currently Co-director, Harvard Preventive Defense Project, writes just when:most are concerned that US attacked Iraq by mis-claiming WMD threat; US presidential election imminent. Concerned that since 11 Sep crisis, US "counterproliferation policies have not been overhauled" ,and" it has made no new efforts to prevent nonstate actors such as terrorists from getting their hands on WMD." He truly decrees much reliable advice on countering the serious terrorist/WMD dangers to the entire global audience, and not to Washington only. His basic view:" WMD generally applies to nuclear, biological, chemical weapons; ballistic missiles; more recently'dirty bombs,'ordinary explosives containing some radioactive material. But this definition is too broad. Chemical weapons are not much more lethal than conventional explosives/hardly...WMD label. Similarly, long-range ballistic missiles especially destructive only if they have nuclear or biological warhead, and so should not be considered separate category. Dirty bombs cause local contamination and costly priority. Primary focus of counterproliferation policy, therefore, should be nuclear and biological weapons...True overhaul of counterproliferation policy would recognize that, like defense against terrorism, defense against WMD must be multilayered and comprehensive. Such reforms would aim to eliminate threat of nuclear terrorism entirely by denying fissilematerials to nonstate actors and...prepare to contain scale of most likely forms of bioterrorism to minor outbreaks. It would revamp outdated arms control agreements, expand counterproliferation programs,...improve way intelligence on WMD is collected and analysed.[W]ould favor countering WMD with non-nuclear rather than nuclear measures. And it would at last develop coherent strategies for heading off...most pressing nuclear proliferation threats." Substantial article then amplifies all these points.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat (Ebury Press 04):-book not yet available here but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04 "The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet" (83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce;greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocricy, ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor...As man's appetite for fish has grown, sohas ability to catch them. Modern gadgets...enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before.[But]signs of growing scarcity everywhere[,and]most efforts to manage fish stocks or controloverfishing failed.[Hence fishermen]moved on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited.[D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though some kinds of fish...can nowbe farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or...mining.[I]nternational agencies monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail.[Lots of unneeded]'by-catch'generally flung back into sea. Thewaste is appalling; the cruelty equally vile. Trawlers...wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out inClover's excellent book...He exposes follies of fishermen, politicians and celebrity chefs[and]anyone withaccess to common resource has interest in over-exploiting it...In time farming may help" [but also morecareful supervision and management].

Roger A.Coate edit.U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations(New York: Twentieth Century Fund 94):-fine essays on UN political/organizational problems and realistic proposals retain global value sinceissues remain relevant and/or reforms underway. Spiers proposes administrative/structural/ peacemaking/ financial reforms. Coate urges inter-agency/intra-government coordination of UN system. Blechman looks at new intra-state conflict/ preventive action challenges. Graham surveys IAEA proliferation/enforcement needs. Abram urges enforcement of human rights/humanitarian law. Loescher examines new scale/originsof refugees/displaced persons. Gordenker discusses WHO role/problems. Sessions/Steever explore challenges/ constraints on Commission on Sustainable Development. Leonard picks UN priorities: security/ economy/environment/humanitarian action/human rights.

Eliot A. Cohen, "A Revolution in Warfare: Technology Strikes Again" Foreign Affairs Vol.75/No.2(Mar/Apr 96):-contends that complete/real-time knowledge of battlefield(plus guided ammunition)changed warfare in virtually every sphere -including political." Might lead...to drastic shrinking of military, casting aside old forms of organization and creation of new ones, slashing of current force structure, and investment of unusually large sums in [R&D].

Leonard A. Cole, The Eleventh Plague: The Politics of Biological and Chemical Warfare(New York: W.H.Freeman 97):-three-way view of problems raised by biological and chemical weapons. Part I reports on US attitudes towards, and activities in, developing/controlling these weapons. Part II deals withpossession/use by Iraq, and varied psychological reactions of world opinion, Israelis, and Iranian/US troops. Part III completes fine account of agents/ techniques involved, physical effects, and latest users:terrorists. 96 report on major international proposals (BWC/CWC)to control such weapons notes thatWHO global disease-watch would help treaty verification.

Cindy Collins and Thomas G. Weiss, An Overview and Assessment of 1989-1996 Peace Operations Publications: Occasional Paper #28(Providence: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown Univ. 97):-any book ordering/ summarizing 2000-publications about globally critical issue is invaluable. Although prepared as research aid, concise text worth reading by itself for wealth of information/views it conveys on many big problems/decisions facing UN. Subjects: Root Causes of Armed Conflicts and Appropriate Responses; Decisions to Intervene(ethics, and UNSC/state processes); Planning and Implementing Intervention(UN, state, and NGO processes/relations).

Carl Conetta and Charles Knight, Vital Force: A Proposal for the Overhaul of the UN Peace Operations System and for the Creation of a UN Legion (Cambridge: Commonwealth Institute, 1995). - a detailed and fairly technical proposal, employing in-depth knowledge of modern military organization and capabilities. Like the Government of Canada's simultaneous proposal (op. cit.), this was prepared in response to the suggestion by the UNSG (Boutros-Ghali) that a UN-controlled rapid response capability was needed. After identifying sixproblems affecting the "authorization, planning, and execution of peace operations" , it proposes the creation of four organizations: a Military Advisory and Cooperation Council, a multilateral Field Communication and Liaison Corps, a strengthened Secretariat staff structure, and a four-brigade permanent standing force (UN Legion) plus field support structure (44k personnel). The authors emphasize that UN intelligence analysis will be key to the force's success.

Gordon Conway, The Doubly Green Revolution: Food for All in the 21st Century(London: Penguin Books 97):-expert survey of food problems and potential in developing countries. Specific advice on eradicating hunger/rapidly reducing 750m undernourished(as pledged at World Food Summit)through complex but realistic second Green Revolution. Topics: global hunger/poverty; 2020 prospects; specific needs; Green Revolution's successes; where missed poor; pollution from pesticides/fertilizer; production trends/priorities; biotechnology; sustainable agriculture; farmers' input; pest control; nutrients; soil/water management; other resources; food security. Satellite imagery intelligence will play major role in increasing input speed and accuracy.

Jocelyn Coulon, Soldiers of Diplomacy: The United Nations, Peacekeeping, and the New World Order(Toronto: Univ.of Toronto Press 98):-translated from French(Les Casques Bleus)considerably more thanvivid journalist account of visits to various UN peacekeeping forces at crucial historic times: Coulon one of Canada's best-informed, often very thoughtful, military commentators. First gives brief history of origin and first 30 years of peacekeeping. Then concentrates on UN "golden age" immediately after Cold War ended, and tells how and why explosion of unprepared-for activities overstretched system and created negativeover-reaction. Operations described, in terms of both personal narrative and political machinations, are those in Lebanon, Cambodia, Western Sahara, Somalia, and Bosnia. Final chapters address UN's problems/limitations - and opportunities.

Barbara Crossette, "U. N. Council in Rare Accord: Fight Terrorism" New York Times 20 Oct 99:-UN has long been unable to reach agreement over global action on terrorism, a critical lacuna given need to eliminate all sanctuary. "One state's terrorist is another's freedom-fighter" . Now decline -or at least public denial- of state support for terrorist groups, and experience of many with insurgents they brand terrorist, appears to have broken impasse. On 19 Oct Security Council unanimously passed resolution(Russian SC President deemed it "anti-terrorist manifesto" ) regarding growing dangers of international terrorism. Reportedly it calls for "better cooperation and sharing of information among nations and[agencies, and]asks governments to prevent terrorist groups from raising money to deny such groups safe haven and to be vigilant against false refugee claims made by terrorists seeking new bases" .

Barbara Crossette "The U.N.'s Unhappy Lot: Perilous Police Duties Multiplying" New York Times 22 Feb 00:-describes challenge facing UN in finding/managing very large number of police officers demanded by new peacekeeping duties and dangers.(For history of UN police activities, see Oakley op.cit.)UNPeacekeeping Operations' total staff of 400 must find/deploy nearly 9,000 specially qualified officersimmediately(almost 5,000 for Kosovo, 2000+for Bosnia, 1,640 for East Timor).For first time, UN police in Kosovo/East Timor have direct executive law enforcement powers and in Kosovo will be armed. Less than half Kosovo force has arrived(and some returned as unqualified).Thus in assuming responsibility for law and order, UN police activities not only grown but become more varied/complex/delicate/ hazardous. Many are worried that current assignments will exceed UN capacity.

Barbara Crossette, "U.N. Warns That Trafficking in Human Beings Is Growing" New York Times 25 Jun 00:-DG of UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention claims that trade in people is "fastest growing criminal market in ...world because of...number of people...involved,..scale of profits being generated for criminal organizations - and...its multifold nature. We don't have just sexual exploitation. We don't have just economic slavery[forced labor and debt enslavement]. We have also a lot of exploitation of migrants. And we have classic slavery. If you put all this together...you get the biggest violation of human rights in[world. R]eliable estimates indicate that 200m people may now be in some way under the sway or in the hands of traffickers of various kinds." UN urges possibly giving temporary residence to would-be immigrants who assist in identifying criminals and reintroduction of anti-slavery laws. Economist 24 Jun "Drugs and Slavery in Myanmar" (48):-according to ILO, many of 1m Burmese refugees along Thai border reportincreasing reliance on slavery by Myanmar regime. While ceasefires have been arranged with most ethnic rebel groups, military keeps control only by "using slaves to build defences, roads and bridges. Locals are forced to clear land, act as porters for the army and provide housing. Refugees claim that forced labourers are even made to march along[mined]roads...800,000 or so people...thought[by ILO]to beexploited in this way" . Roger Cohen, "Europe Tries to Turn a Tide of Migrants Chasing Dreams" NYT 02 Jul:-motivated by death of 58 Chinese illegal immigrants in truck container in Dover, England, this article explains how and why EU has replaced North America as the principal destination of asylum-seekers(and unnumbered illegal immigrants). In 1999 30,000 people applied for asylum in US(compared with 127,000 in 1993), while more than 365,000 sought asylum in EU. Main change has been collapse of USSR, opening up of new land routes to Europe from Asia. Moreover "increasingly well-organized criminal groups...have emerged to coordinate smuggled passages into Europe largely closed to legal immigration" . Also: "[P]enaltiesare far less severe than for drugs, the up-front investment much smaller, and the evidence has legs and tends to run away" explains DG of International Organization for Migration. Finally, Europe is relatively cheap to reach illegally - from China about half cost of transport to US. Economist 24 Jun "The Last Frontier" (63-4)adds that about 30m people are smuggled across international borders every year(up to 500,000 into EU; 300,000 into US). This trade is worth $12-30b, most world traffic being handled by about 50 specialized gangs. UK Immigration concludes: "[G]angs have infrastructures, communications and surveillancecapabilities far in excess of anything that...law enforcement agencies in transit and source countries can muster, and...chances of their activities diminishing is negligible" . Elisabeth Rosenthal, "Chinese Town's Main Export: Its Young Men" NYT 26 Jun:-gives detailed firsthand description of how 80% of 20-40 year oldmen of one town, by working illegally in US, have made it very prosperous, although full of "widows" .

Wendy Cukier, "International Fire/Small Arms Control" (73-90)Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1(Fall 98):-describes close links between firearms control as element of domestic crime prevention and growing body of international small arms controls, and urges more cooperation. Common strategy should include:conflict prevention/peace building; disarmament; injury prevention, safety and health promotion; crime prevention/security. After providing statistics on global/national threat posed by small arms, essay describesdifferent perspectives on intervention to prevent casualties. Then discusses data collection/surveillance;sources of firearms/small arms; various methods of controlling supply(limits on access; controls on manufacture/sales/transfers; removal from circulation by amnesties/ buy-backs). "Multi-layered, comprehensive[diversified]approach is essential" .

James Dao and Andrew C. Revkin, "Machines Are Filling In for Troops" New York Times 16 Apr 02:-issue presents "A Revolution in Warfare" of informative" interactive feature offering scenes from robot battle" ;substantial survey of current US military thinking/planning on reducing both number/vulnerability of US personnel directly engaged in combat. While technology already "brought array of sensors, vehicles and weapons that can be operated by remote control or totally autonomous" stunning success in Afghanistan has accelerated existing "shift away from people...to automation." Assets are many: much smaller/lighter than manned units, making them cheaper, more fuel efficient/easier to move and have unlimited attention-spans. Most important, can both shield and augment(expensive) live soldier, while feeling neither exhaustion nor fear. "[O]ver time[such]technologies produce biggest change in warfare in generations" particularly when provided with" much greater autonomy, powerful artificial intelligence" .

Richard DawkinsThe God Delusion(New York: Houghton Mifflin 06):-as with 06 Dennett/previous Dawkinsitems, many books related to the controversial global roles of science vs religion are now becomingincreasingly critical - and influential(?). They may ease or contribute to serious violence if the growing factual issues are not compromised in some manner. Dawkins is not only 'a preeminent scientist'but offers an extraordinarily thorough critique of mainly Christian/Jewish theology as supported by the Bibleand fundamentalism. Press outline includes:"With rigor and wit, Dawkins examines God in all his forms. [E]viscerates the major arguments for religion and demonstrates the supreme improbability of a supreme being. [S]hows how religion fuels war/foments bigotry/abuses children, buttressing his points withhistorical/contemporary evidence. [M]akes compelling case: belief in God not just wrong but potentially deadly. [A]lso offers exhilarating insight into advantages of atheism to the individual and society, not least of which is clearer/ truer appreciation of the universe's wonders than any faith could ever master". Highlight(282):"Fundamentalists know they are right because they have read the truth in a holy book and they know, in advance, that nothing will budge them from their belief. [I]f evidence seems to contradict it, the evidence must be thrown out, not the book. By contrast, what I, as scientist, believe(for example,evolution)I believe...because I have studied the evidence. It really is a very different matter. Books about evolution...believed because they present overwhelming quantities of mutually buttressed evidence. In principle, any reader can check evidence. When science book wrong, somebody eventually discoversthe mistake/it is corrected in subsequent books. That conspicuously doesn't happen with holy books".

Tobias Debiel, "Strengthening the UN as an Effective World Authority: Cooperative Security Versus Hegemonic Crisis Management" Global Governance Vol.6/No.1(Jan/Mar 00):-neither as academic or utopian as title might suggest, looks at very practical/pertinent issue of what UN can and should do to be more effective in peacekeeping and crisis prevention roles. Such roles increase in importance as consensus develops: national sovereignty may be curtailed in exceptional humanitarian circumstances. Argued: world, unready for legally-bound multilateralism, and widely opposed to superpower-driven coercion,must turn to cooperative security - willing collaboration of all types of bodies: interest groups/relevantstates/regional organizations. Core element UN must create "standby capacities for early warning/conflict management/peacekeeping; reform of non-military sanctions instrument; and speedy institution ofinternational criminal court" (39).

Louis A.Delvoie "The Kosovo War: A Long Catalogue of Losers" Behind the Headlines Vol.57/No.2,3 (Winter/Spring 00):-NATO's 99 air campaign against rump "Yugoslavia" has had many supporters andcritics. Former mainly argue that it succeeded in noble humanitarian aim of relieving Kosovars from Serbian oppression; latter argue force was itself wrong and/or stress absence of UN imprimatur. Author seeks those involved that were net losers in conflict. NATO: hurt its image/reputation/future effectivenessby launching war of aggression, ending its credibility as purely defensive alliance; United Nations:sidelined/marginalized, lost any post-Gulf hope it might play its Charter peace/ security role; OSCE:reputation/credibility suffered when its 1,300 Observers had to withdraw hastily when many of OSCEmembers attacked state where they were to keep peace; Kosovars: NATO's "beneficiaries" sufferedhundreds dead and thousands displaced before bombing, but thousands dead, hundreds of thousandsdisplaced once two deterrents(OSCE plus threat to bomb)ceased to restrain; Serbs: suffered "collateral" casualties, food/water shortages as infrastructure hit, and vast long-term economic lossfrom bombing/sanctions; Balkan Stability: lost in refugee floods, revived ethnic tension; "New European Security Architecture" :Russia reacted with anger/ condemnation, needing much time/effort to defuse; US: lost in stature/credibility e.g. through sudden change in KLA image, public policy it would not risk ground troops, ominous intelligence error on Chinese Embassy; Western Governments: caught with double standards over Serbia/Chechnya. Many lessons to be learned.

Daniel C.Dennett Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon (New York: Viking 06):-very carefully drafted by professor of philosophy, Tufts University and well-known author (particularly Darwin's Dangerous Idea 95), aims of 450p volume are the questions:"Is Religion Good For You? Should It Be the Basis for Morality?". Accurate, if full, summary of the book's aim on its dust-cover:"For many people around the world - perhaps most people - there is nothing more important than religion. It has comfortedthem in their suffering, become an integral part of their marriages and child rearing, and encouragedgroup cooperation to achieve ends both magnificant and terrible. Religion plays such a powerful rolein the world that we should try to understand it in all its complexities, but most adherants bristle at anyone who wants to investigate their practices and beliefs in a scientific manner. In this daring and important new book, Daniel C.Dennett seeks to uncover the origins of this remarkable family of phenomena that mean so much to so many people, and to discuss why - and how - they have commanded allegiance, becomeso potent, and shaped so many lives so strongly. Where does our devotion to God come from? Wherewas the psychological and cultural soil in which religion first took root? Is it an addiction or a genuine needthat we should try to preserve at any cost? Is it the product of blind evolutionary instinct or rational choice? Do those who believe in God have good reasons for doing so? Are people right to say that the best way to live a good life is through religion? In a spirited argument that ranges widely through biology,history, and psychology, Dennett explores how religion evolved from folk beliefs and how these early 'wild'strains of religion were then carefully and consciously domesticated. As the motives of religion'sstewards entered this process, such features as secrecy and systematic invulnerability to disproofemerged. Dennett contends that this protective veneer of mystery needs to be removed so that religions can be better understood, and - most important - he argues that the widespread assumption that they arethe necessary foundation of morality can no longer be supported. Breaking the Spell is not an antireligiousscreed but rather an eye-opening exploration of the role that religious belief plays in our lives, ourinteractions, and our country. With the conflict between science and 'intelligent design'becoming ever more impassioned, Dennett has written a calmly reasoned and timely book that will be read and debated by believers and nonbelievers alike".

John Deutch "Terrorism: Think Again" Foreign Policy No.108(Fall 97):-former US Director of Central Intelligence argues terrorists operating more globally and more likely to use non-conventional weapons and cybersystems. Now main categories state-sponsored/Islamic/insurgent. Counter-terrorism above all needs more international information exchange, agreed policies and common action. Clearly UN responsibilities; good intelligence access/analysis critical.

John Deutch, Harold Brown, and John P. White, "National Missile Defense: Is There Another Way?" Foreign Policy No.119(Summer 00):-three top defense politicians believe some NMD system "critical" to US future homeland defense, but initial system as planned is not best approach as it fails to address several threatsfaced. Propose building on theater missile defense(TMD)systems already under development against intermediate-range ballistic missiles since:(1)more balanced way to address varied missile threats;(2)offersboth technical/cost advantages; (3)more responsive to concerns of Russia, China, many USallies;(4)eases process of modifying ABM Treaty. Rationale:(1)ICBMs hardly most likely threat to US;theater missile threat particularly urgent;(2)present NMD program pursues too many options; driven byschedules rather than events; artificially separates NMD from TMD when latter can be upgraded(boost-phase)at less cost;(3)US must start budgeting against cruise missile or aircraft attack, and spend more onsurreptitious terrorist attacks;(4)impact on relations with Russia, China, allies of deploying NMD as planned likely severe. TMD would not violate ABM or threaten Russia and, if sea-based off DPRK, threaten China less. For(pro/con)LETTERS regarding article, see Foreign Policy Sep/Oct 00(new format/bimonthly).

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

A. Walter Dorn "Keeping Tabs on a Troubled World: UN Information-Gathering to Preserve Peace" Security Dialogue Vol.27/No.3(Sep 96):-provides excellent summary reasons for UN's urgent need for security-relevant information of all kinds, of currently improving situation and future prospects. "Intelligence and Peacekeeping: The UN Operation in the Congo, 1960-64" co-authored with David Bell in International Peacekeeping Vol.2/No.1(Spring 95)provides detailed example of key role of intelligence for UN operations. In this operation, UN force did its own collection.

Margaret P. Doxey United Nations Sanctions: Current Policy Issues: Revised Edition(Halifax: Dalhousie Univ. 99):-containing information up to Apr 99. Appendix offers basic facts about all sanctions imposed under UN Charter(Chap. VII).Text examines four issues subject to debate:(1)Domestic economic costs of sanctions to "sending" states and prospects for burden-sharing. Options: financial help; tariff adjustments;technical/humanitarian assistance; specific help on sanctions enforcement.(2)Mitigation on humanitarian grounds of sanctions-induced hardships in "targets" . Ideally, punishment fits crime but scope for: improving ways to determine need; handling humanitarian exemptions; avoiding abuse through monitoring.(3)Determining scope for direct targeting of leaders and elite groups. Types of targeted sanctions: personal travel restrictions; limit/end international bodies' membership(privileges); limit air links; cultural/sportsboycotts; financial sanctions(freezing assets)-most promising, but speed/information/selection/discipline critical.(4)Improved administration/enforcement. Much effort underway to improve work of Sanctions Committees; humanitarian issues handled better, but to detect/control serious violations of sanctions regimes still strictly limited.

Margaret P. Doxey, "Sanctions Through the Looking Glass: The Spectrum of Goals and Achievements" International Journal Vol.LV/No.2(Spring 00):-expert, realistic look at recent UN experience with sanctions, and at current thinking on how they could be improved. (All Chapter VII sanctions to Jan 00 are listed.)Security Council use of sanctions has increased greatly since 1990(earlier it approved only two: Rhodesia, South Africa); hence study of optimum use has also expanded. US has been keenest supporter, but public opinion in many democracies under media pressure, has increased demands governments "do something" about human rights violations - broadening both "targets" and "goals" and changing criteria of success. Political effective might now include not only gaining compliance, but also stigmatizing orcontaining targets, and as means of preventing or deterring certain action. Success is harder to judge, particularly when multiple pressures, to both apply and satisfy. All are analysed. Finally, essay discusses means of focusing sanctions better, not only on elites but away from innocents.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

Erik Eckholm "U.S. and China Agree on Steps to Fight Drugs" New York Times 20 Jun 00:-Barry McCaffrey,director of White House drug-control policy, made unprecedented tour of China/Vietnam/Thailand to expand bilateral anti-drug cooperation. Reports that in Beijing he signed formal agreement to share information/evidence related to drug smuggling. Two already cooperated to stop illegal drug shipments, but both sides predicted more wide-ranging collaboration since face common serious novel problems of drug manufacture/use. Main concerns heroin and methamphetamine with latter fast-rising threat now produced in both countries. US/China may soon share intelligence in several areas: drugs-related/money-laundering/even weapons-smuggling. Associated Press "US Says Speed Is Worst Drug Menace" NYT 23 Jun:-picked up story in Bangkok. Here both sides agreed greatest menace methamphetamine/ "speed" sinceeasy to make/offers criminal organizations bigger profits than even heroin. Speed in Thailand mostlyproduced by ethnic armies in Myanmar(Burma)and poses new challenge following Thais' "enormous success" in reducing opium cultivation: estimate 600m speed pills will smuggle into Thailand from Myanmar this year. Meanwhile The Economist 24 Jun "A Tidal Wave of Drugs" (42):-reports growing problems in Caribbean. Once again become favoured route of Colombian drug traffickers. US officials estimate almost200 tonnes of cocaine were shipped through Caribbean islands to US last year, increase of 75% over 97, overwhelming control efforts. Some 67 tonnes transited Haiti in 99 without single conviction. "Economics against drug fighters" -tonne of cocaine fetches $100m in New York - more than entire annual government revenue of smaller islands. Societies pay in growing crime/distrust/corruption/intimidation/weapon imports. But relentless demand ensures relentless supply...

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

The Economist 06 Jun 98 "Bombs, Gas and Microbes" (23-5):-concise view of current world disarmament/control moves against weapons of mass destruction. NPT: 186 in; India, Pakistan, Israel, Brazil, Cuba outside. Inspection protocol(97)so far binds few. Trade control: Zangger Committee and Nuclear Suppliers' Group. CTBT(96): 149 signed; 13 ratified, with major holdouts. Fissile-materials cut-off held up in UN. CWC(97): 168 signed; 110 ratified; again major holdouts but Convention tough: chemical weapons outlawed/destroyed; trade limits; short-notice inspections. BWC(72): 130+ ratified; biological/toxin weapons prohibited, but no built-in checks. "Spread of weapons technology seems inexorable...[so hit]roots of regional disputes" [and reduce dangers from stocks?]. As inspection becomes stricter and more pervasive, intelligence/imagery become key.

The Economist 11 Jul 98 "Science and Technology: Murder Must Advertise" (79):-highlighting enormous impact on crime-solving/legal evidence of DNA analysis. Claims DNA"already proving to be one of mostpowerful detective tools ever...invented" . "One day, many crimes will truly cease to be paying propositions - for when DNA databases hold profiles of millions of people, crimes solvable in...hours".More global(UN)such database, more effective it would be.

The Economist 1 Aug 98: "An Economic KGB?" (42): - the article reports that a new head has been appointed for the main KGB successor organization: the Federal Security Service, FSB. He is Vladimir Putin, a career intelligence officer and top presidential advisor, with key recent experience in economics(e.g. investment; capital flight). Already he has promised tougher controls on strategic exports, while the Russian Prime Minister has told FSB officers that economic security is now their top priority.

The Economist 29 Aug 98 "Punish and be Damned" (Edit.15 plus related articles: 42,43,44,45,52):-published after US military raids in reaction to attacks on two US embassies in Africa. Editorial assesses value of violent reprisals to major acts of terrorism causing global implications and horror, but where capture of perpetrators is difficult. "If it resorts to punishment raids without best of reasons[,aggrieved state]risks finding itself increasingly friendless in truly important disputes....Vigilance, intelligence and...determined pursuit of terrorists through courts may pay off handsomely in long run - without putting at risk world's sense of outrage and help that comes with it".

The Economist 09 Jan 99 "A Personal Eye in the Sky" (73-4):-US Defense Department sponsoring development of hard -to-detect micro air vehicles(MAVs)which(it is hoped)will provide detailed tactical intelligence in real time at low cost($1000 each).Early models: shaped like tiny aircraft; powered by miniature gas turbines/small fuel cells/batteries; propelled by tiny flapping wings/propellers; guided by miniature gyroscopes/air-flow detectors; positioned within cms via Global Positioning Satellites; carry payloadsof miniature video cameras/transmitters soon creating 1m pixel pictures. Size: 15cm any direction; weight: 85 gms; endurance: 1hr. Designed for battlefields but valuable for local conflict prevention/peacekeeping/ anti-terrorism/ verification/health/structure/environment surveillance all UN relevant.

The Economist 20 Mar 99 "Money Laundering: Cleaning Up?" (78):-(update 26 Jul 97 op.cit.).Small British "tax-haven" dependencies, suspected as major locations for money- laundering -mainly of drug-generated funds -will be required to tighten financial systems. Six Caribbean territories implement UN anti-money-laundering scheme as international pressure mounts from UN/OECD/EU/G-7. However OECD reportnotes cash can be laundered through wide variety of frauds, involving lawyers, accountants, auditors -not just banks. US names Antigua "one of most attractive centers in Caribbean for money launderers" ;Russiancrooks reportedly favour south Pacific islands. All money-laundering problems exacerbated byglobalization and complicated by sovereignty.

The Economist 27 Mar 99:"No School, No Future"(45-6):-gloomy essay, contrasting the critical importance of education for raising living standards in the Third World with recent negative trends in illiteracy and lack of primary schooling in many countries, particularly Africa. The value of education is now understood almost universally: its elevating and enriching effects for individuals; the health, nutrition, productivity and fertility-rate improvements for families; and its developmental and multiplying impact on economies. Yet UNICEF reports 40m children in sub-Saharan Africa get no basic teaching, with per-child spending only half that of 20 years ago. The uneducated may reach 75m by 2015. The principal reasons: reduced/misallocated resources. Proposal: transfer funds from debt-servicing, defence, and higher education, and change attitudes on girls' education. Cost: $2b/year more would get every African child in school.

The Economist 01 May 99 "The End of Privacy: The Surveillance Society" (Edit.15-6;21-3):-the power of computers to gather personal information, and store/analyse/retrieve/disseminate it electronically/globally, will continue expanding. New capacities will involve:government/ marketing/banking/surveillance(for state/private intelligence/ arms verification/ lawenforcement/ security control)/personal health/DNA/work/movements/contacts/tastes/credit/legal records. Policing the data is not feasible; data "gates" or encryption doubtful; intense debate inevitable. "People [must] just assume one simply has no privacy[-]one of greatest[modern]social changes.[L]aws will be used not to obstruct recording/collecting information, but to catch those who use it to do harm[,thusproducing]more lawful security."

The Economist 08 May 99 "Come Together, If You Can" (48):-summarizes report by UN Development Programentitled "Global Public Goods" (Oxford Univ. Press 99)urging greater global information exchange, particularly for benefit of poor who suffer most for lack of it in information society. Proposal is to systematically record common problems and solutions, and to assess every nation's total exports, including ideas/patents/pollution/diseases/crime/other `externalities' so that "fuller picture could...be drawn of inequality/depletion of natural resources/financial instabilities/other threats to development" . "Knowledge bank" could then be set up to give poor states better access to new ideas and technology, assist policymakers, and promote international cooperation, e.g. for law enforcement. Compiling information clearly in global interest, and(computer)distribution costs are small.

The Economist 06 Nov 99 "Bandwidth from Thin Air" (85-6); "How to Look Through Walls" (86):-first function of International Telecommunication Union, UN agency: "Allocation of radio frequency spectrum and registration of radio frequency assignments." As global exploitation of spectrum multiplies exponentially and increases(with satellites)in range, ITU fills its time(re)allocating fixed and so ever-more scarce/valuable global resource. Article reports two emerging technologies promise to make vastly more use of limited "bandwidth." One allows multiple simultaneous transmissions on same frequency(Bell Labs Layered Space-Time: BLAST); other transmits on huge range of frequencies at once(Ultra Wide-Band:UWB).Both create "unforeseen reserves of valuable bandwidth...at cost of increased computational complexity." UWB used as radar "can employ significantly longer wavelengths [to] penetrate wide range of materials(e.g. brick/stone)." Potential military, police, disarmament, intelligence uses vast.

The Economist 18 Dec 99:" Privacy: Living in the Global Goldfish Bowl" (49-54):-the article states the problem: "Privacy has become one of the...battlegrounds of the information economy. As databases proliferate and the...Internet expands inexorably, the calls...for more protections have grown ever more strident, and the pledges...to respect the privacy...ever more convoluted. At the heart of this struggle is abasic dilemma: most people want to retain some control over who knows what about them, and yet information [on] individuals is the lifeblood of most...new service businesses." (49). Where the problem is already most pressing, there is also a basic split over how it should be handled: the EU has passed one of the world's most comprehensive and stringent privacy laws...while the US wants its self-regulation systemaccepted. In any event, many firms now exist to dig up masses of personal information very quickly - as the article demonstrates!

The Economist 18 Dec 99 "South Seas Piracy: Dead Men Tell No Tales" (87-9):-survey of state/ techniques of world maritime piracy, concentrated mainly in South-East Asia. Article reports that pirate attacks, usually against large ships, have doubled during 1990s, to 200 a year. Last year, 67 crew members were killed, 66 in Asian waters where nearly three-quarters of all world's attacks take place. In their more mundane form, ad hoc gangs in speedboats board ships for minor theft(mooring ropes; petty cash). Since gangs are willing to kill with guns or machetes, most crews carry no weapons and are under strict instructions to follow pirates' orders. New sophisticated threat is hijacking of ships and cargos by international crime syndicates, with hints of official collusion. Ship names and papers are changed easily, as is cargo "ownership" . UN International Maritime Organization and shipping companies are working onlegal/technical counter-measures. For updates see Economist 21 Jul 01 and 12 Jun 04(op.cit.).

The Economist 08 Apr 00 "Who Owns the Knowledge Economy?" (17); "Patent Wars: Knowledge Monopolies" (75-8):-Editorial/essay address issue already raising serious legal, ethical, R&D, competition, trade and North-South debates - worth billions of dollars. It is accelerating numbers of patents granted in novel/controversial areas, made both possible/immensely valuable by rapid advances in knowledge power they guard(computer software, genetic engineering, Internet business methods). Patents global(in theory),wherever first granted, and recognized international patent system is under creation by World Intellectual Property Organization, WTO - and sheer demand. Patents are both defenses in very competitive world, and fertile/flexible income generators. Yet, while aiming to foster invention by rewarding it, they do not "differentiate between incentives needed to invest in different kinds of technologies. [Henceforth they should respond to]investment that an invention represents[and] come in different shapes and sizes, or system will go on producing absurdities" (17).

The Economist 08 Apr 00 "Who Owns the Knowledge Economy?" (17); "Patent Wars: Knowledge Monopolies" (75-8):-Editorial/essay address issue already raising serious legal, ethical, R&D, competition, trade and North-South debates - worth billions of dollars. It is accelerating numbers of patents granted in novel/controversial areas, made both possible/immensely valuable by rapid advances in knowledge power they guard(computer software, genetic engineering, Internet business methods). Patents global(in theory),wherever first granted, and recognized international patent system is under creation by World Intellectual Property Organization, WTO - and sheer demand. Patents are both defenses in very competitive world, and fertile/flexible income generators. Yet, while aiming to foster invention by rewarding it, they do not "differentiate between incentives needed to invest in different kinds of technologies. [Henceforth they should respond to]investment that an invention represents[and] come in different shapes and sizes, or system will go on producing absurdities" (17).

The Economist 08 Apr 00 "All Wrong in Iraq" (20-2); "Iraq and the West: When Sanctions Don't Work" (23-5):-UN sanctions against Iraq -most comprehensive ever imposed- clearly not working. Severely hurt innocent; failed to disarm in key areas, let alone unseat, target: Saddam Hussein; damaged UN's reputation. Yet ending them would damage UN, and global stability, even more. Essay offers account ofwhy and how sanctions were set up, modified, and are failing(original terms/aims/successes; disastrous cost for ordinary Iraqis, and resulting flawed reform; how Hussein insulates himself).Editorial examinesUN's options(1)Make easier for Iraq to import innocuous, necessary goods, monitoring dual-use items. Already tried/manipulated/proved imperfect.(2)Oil exports freed but arms-making/related imports banned. Monitoring constrained/ laborious; military funds unlimited.(3)As for(2), plus as much internal/import monitoring as possible(Iraq pays)and warning of "prodigious" air retribution for cheating or threatening activity.

The Economist 06 May 00 "Satellite Pictures: Private Eyes in the Sky" (71-3):-plans of companies hoping to sell satellite-produced images with spacial resolution of less than metre(smallest features that can be distinguished) and speculates on their global impact(see also NYT story by W. J. Broad).Such resolution,previously limited to US and Soviet intelligence use, can distinguish cars from trucks, recognize types of aircraft and tanks, and identify buildings for target selection. Firms launching commercial satellites in coming months foresee billion-dollar markets for detail comparable to aerial photography combined withglobal coverage and high-speed delivery. Probable consumers include most government agencies, mineral/oil prospectors, utilities, urban/transport planners, real estate/insurance companies, farmers, fishermen, NGOs. While governments hope to restrict image sales/ coverage, it will prove impossible - and force for verification, stability and hence peace.

The Economist 17 Jun 00 "Patent Law: Going Global" (83):-08 Apr item "Patent Wars..." outlined rapidly-increasing number, complexity and cost of patent-related problems in a high-tech, interdependent world, with instant global communications. This item reports on "significant step towards simple, global system for patent filing" in form of new world patent-law treaty signed at WIPO(UN World Intellectual Property Organization). Inter alia it stipulates "standardized forms that all patent offices must accept, basic standards for electronic submission of patents, and mechanisms to avoid loss of rights due to non-essential formalities or unintentional delays" . Most important, signatories accept nationally any patent filed according to international standard known as PCT(Patent Co-Operation Treaty)and "may pave way for filing single patent according to global standard" . Issues of substance, such as what constitutes "novelty" , will be discussed later this year, but tougher debates such as that between "first to invent" and "first to file" may be left longer. Not surprisingly, China, India and some other LDCs are doubtful. [In light of current North-South problems over high costs of patented drugs and seeds, global formula may be needed so LDCs can get/make critical patented goods cheaply, but not "dump" them elsewhere.]

The Economist 05 Aug 00"Engage and Prosper"(Edit.22-3);"Peacekeeping: The UN's Missions Impossible"(Essay:24-6);"Road-Mending in Lebanon"(Note:25);"Kouchnerism in Kosovo" (Note: 26):-editorial, essayand notes have one subject in common: role of United Nations. Leader makes point US took lead in 1945,creating UN System and its rules; later helped build UN-centred global network of legal economic and security rules. Yet" pre-eminent victor of Cold War has failed to provide leadership needed to build kind of international system unruly post-Cold-War world demands" .Instead it chooses rules it obeys, or those it ignores - setting politically/morally dangerous precedent of unilateral exemptions from rule of law, and of selective involvement even when its own paramount beliefs are flouted. Essay offers expert history - warts and all - of evolving UN peacekeeping that now makes humanitarian intervention in cases of gross violation of human rights almost compulsory. Yet UN is refused men, money and structure necessary to undertake increasingly complex and dangerous missions, including effectively in East Timor and Kosovosimultaneous administration/creation of civil regimes, reconstruction of badly damaged economies, and maintenance of peace in societies split by hatred. Priority recommendations: UN needs good intelligence analysis, and UNSG willing to refuse clearly impossible missions. Notes describe:(1)lengthy(22 years),dangerous(82 dead), and frustrating(finally completed)experience of UN force(UNIFIL)in south Lebanon sent to supervise Israeli withdrawal;(2)Bernard Kouchner unique responsibility:" begin building peace/democracy/ stability and self-government" in Kosovo. Common thread might be: world badly needs US-UN to work together to create new rules and structures to help ensure unprecedented/rapidly- evolving21st Century challenges can be handled.

The Economist 02 Sep 00 "The Price of Paying Ransoms" (Edit. 17):-recalling large number of highly publicized hostage-takings recently(Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, Fiji, former Soviet Union, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Yemen)confirms global trend upwards. Those taken in 1999 increased by 6% over 1998, number has been growing at that rate for several years - producing total increase of 70% over eight years. Ransom by Libya of Jolo Island hostages at $1m each taught kidnappers:" holding few hostages keeps army away; grabbing more keeps money rolling in" ,as well as someglobal politics(for Libyan motives/source of funds: "Qaddafi, Floating Like a Butterfly" (41)). Whilekidnapping has many causes( "inequalities of wealth, availability of guns, rebel armies looking for funds, underpaid police" )main reason is rewards. Hence universal lesson: hostage-taking must be seen not to pay. Short of capturing/punishing kidnappers[absence of any safe haven may be critical], it may also meanmaking it illegal to pay ransom.[Editor might add: such rules work best if applied/enforced globally.]

The Economist 21 Oct 00 "Byte Counters: Quantifying Humanity's Information Output" (96):-soon possiblefor person to obtain access to virtually all recorded information via few standard media. Also now both feasible and valuable(for storage, reproduction, etc)to guess its volume. U. of California research team calculates "estimated amount of unique information world is currently producing each year" is about two exabytes(each being roughly billion X billion bytes). Figure could be arrived at relatively easily since enough is known about how much original content is packed on four main storage media: paper, film, optical discs, tapes. More figures: individuals create and store 740,000 terabytes(thousand billion bytes),while publishedinformation adds only 285 terabytes. Digital information is growing faster than any other form; shipments of optical and magnetic storage media double every year. About 610b e-mails are sent each year in US alone(total 11 terabytes). Telephones, however, generate 576,000 terabytes. About 1m books are produced annually, while 2.5b CDs were shipped in 1999.

The Economist 04 Nov 00 "India's Nuclear Dilemmas" (45-6):-very few widely-read, current analyses ofworld's most unstable nuclear confrontation. Identifies India's motives in demonstrating nuclear capacityas: political calculation, fear of China, and" feeling that India should not be denied prestige enjoyed by fivedeclared nuclear powers" .While PM Vajpayee has" since danced skilfully away from diplomatic mess[China, Pakistan, US]created by tests, hard-won goodwill depends partly on India's keeping low nuclear profile that threatens neither neighbours nor international efforts to stop spread of nuclear weapons." Vajpayee's dilemma is to be caught between those whose argument is that any further nuclear development would only weaken India's security by goading its neighbours, and his desire for deterrent that could survive a first strike. India's policy of "no first strike" and "minimum credible deterrent" is backed by deployment/decision-making system that is "missing or invisible" .Even if simply prudent/passive, India should discuss CBMs with Pakistan(and China?), not leave things gravely ambiguous.

The Economist 11 Nov 00 "Look, No Pilot: Pilotless Combat Aircraft" (101-2):-testing Boeing X-45A, first example of unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV). Long used for surveillance, unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have never carried weapons, whereas X-45As can carry bombs, decoys or Joint Direct Attack Munitions(smart weapons)plus all most advanced avionics: synthetic-aperture radar/satellite communications equipment. Advantages over manned combat aircraft: lessweight/size(stealth)/cost(build/(re)use/maintain)/training/control; better endurance/transport/ manoeuverability/storage. Initial role: suppress enemy air defence/air superiority. Challenges: controllinglarge numbers in limited airspace; jamming/interception of control signals; target assessment. Future: 90%combat aircraft unmanned by 2025. Intelligence value of UCAVs equals UAVs' , but adds extra value: UCAVs can attack whatever they find.

The Economist 18 Nov 00 "Land Warfare: The Shape of the Battle Ahead" (29-33):-probes emotional "air-vs-land" battle over warfare's future nature/weaponry. At issue is whether hi-tech combat(Gulf/Kosovo)has given airpower final advantage in effectiveness trade-off among protection/mobility/firepower. Accelerating pace of technological change is forcing land-warfare experts to defend even old-fashioned virtues of teamwork/leadership/courage, while whole tradition of armoured warfare, hobbled by heavy transport/supply needs, is fighting for its life against long-distance/" stand-off" weapons. Any armour may be penetrated so speed/stealth may be preferable and not all weapons systems need to be manned(11NovEconomist). Such general questions/options form bases for much debate/theory on both sides of Atlantic regarding optimum roles/equipment for ground forces. Yet, no consensus yet developed over real issue: how best to deal with fast-moving target of technological change.

The Economist 03 Feb 01 "Air Terrorism and International Law: The Long Trail Twisting From Lockerbie" (45-6):-Scottish judges unanimously found Libyan intelligence agent guilty of mass murder of 270 people by exploding bomb in Pan American flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 88. Also offersexcellent summary of precedent-setting international trial, and of US-UK options regarding further action against Qaddafi, including removal of UN sanctions on Libya(Doxey 99 & 00 op.cit.).For US attitude/actions towards Qaddafi/Libya, and Qaddafi's attitude towards US, see combined item: Tanter 98 "Rogue Regimes..." and Viorst 99 "The Colonel..." (op.cit.).Several media reports clarify broader implications of Lockerbie trial. Associated Press "U.N. Chief Releases Letter on Bomb" NYT 25 Aug 00:-describes UK-drafted letter from UNSG to Qaddafi, assuring him trial is purely legal and not manipulated political process.AP "Lockerbie Verdict Expected..." NYT 30 Jan 01:-summarizes unusual structure/course of trial. Donald G.McNeil Jr. "Libyan Convicted in Lockerbie Trial" NYT 31 Jan 01:-reports verdict(one defendant found guilty of mass murder, while co-defendant freed for lack of proof),and legal rationale behind it. David Johnston "News Analysis: Courts Are a Limited Anti-Terror Weapon" NYT 01 Feb 01:-comments on relativeeffectiveness of "criminal law as weapon against horrific act of international terror." Greatest limit in case was inability to punish those viewed by many as really responsible: Qaddafi's regime. Some experts argue such national security threats should be dealt with by military force(e.g.Tripoli, Sudan strikes).AP "Gadhafi Fails on Lockerbie Evidence" ;Reuters "Qaddafi Defies West Over Lockerbie Bombing" NYT 05 Feb 01:-both report on Qaddafi's attempt in long speech/press conference to make good his promise to reveal at that time new, "proven evidence that[convicted man]innocent" - "revelations so grand they could drive trial judges to suicide." But he merely read from published reports expressing skepticism about verdict, and then claimed "I refuted whole case, destroyed it." Reuters "Libyan Riot Police Break Up Anti-Britain Protest" NYT 06 Feb 01:-after having been stirred up, demonstrators tried to attack British and UN(sic)officesin Tripoli, and were harshly treated.

The Economist 14 Apr 01 "The Challenge of Money Laundering" (64-6):-many of "world's best-known banks have become central element in process by which crooks clean up their ill-gotten gains" .Money laundering defined as "processing through banking system of proceeds of crime in order to disguise their illegal origin" .While big banks are now doing great deal more than they did until very recently to keep it out of their systems - particularly by using technology to sift through money-transfer data for unusual activity - exercise faces three major problems. Both banks and customers want to maintain privacy - in competitive business; new technology(anonymous electronic cash) may be making money laundering easier; sinceproblem truly global, honest differences of opinion between regulators, about what constitutes crime. IMFestimates amount of dirty money being cleaned annually amounts to between $500b and $1.5 trillion, andgrows with globalization. Essay offers good deal of information about how and where it takes place, and is being fought.

The Economist 19 May 01 "Electricity From Waves: Power Buoys" (78-9):-among renewable energy sources, wave power has fallen behind solar and wind power on basis of apparently uneconomic cost. Now buoy that turns wave energy into electricity has been developed for US Navy that appears economic. It "collects energy using piston that rides up and down with motion of waves. This turns generator, andelectricity produced is stored in battery" .Naval interest was in source of power for recharging small unmanned underwater reconnaissance vehicles, but designers saw commercial potential in larger, more powerful buoys. They developed 20kw version, soon to be group-tested off Australian coast andconnected to local power grid. Large groups of 100kw buoys may form 10-100MW power stations within 2-3 years. Being simple and sturdy, buoys may prove profitable: 3 cents/kW-hour. While power plants costly, fuel is free/available 90% of time, and running cost minimal.

The Economist 21 Jul 01 "Piracy in Asia: Dangerous Waters" (35-6):-report on escalating problem of piracy at sea builds on 18 Dec 99 and leads to 12 Jun 04 articles(op.cit.),and includes map of Southeast Asia with locations of pirate attacks in 2000. ICC International Maritime Bureau(IMB)reported 460+ worldwide - 56% increase on 1999. UN International Maritime Organization(IMO), moreover, suspects half incidents gounreported. While most involve" petty theft by unemployed fishermen and opportunistic criminals" , they range up to highly-organized, gang-operated hijacking. Favourite "pirate zones" remain Indonesia's extensive waters(119 incidents)and narrow Malacca Strait (75)between Sumatra and Malaysia/Singapore, one of world's busiest" choke-points" transited by 200+ ships daily. IMB blames recent increases in piracyon Indonesian situation, but "legal loopholes are also to blame" . As most Asian states' laws on piracy are now inadequate, model national piracy law is being drafted. Jurisdictional limits present other problems: few Asian states have ratified IMO convention providing legal framework to chase, prosecute and extradite pirates. Still, regional cooperation is expanding. IMO foresees common code of practice to investigate high-seas crimes while IMB now monitors ship movements and coordinates cross-border chases.

The Economist 17 Apr 04 "AIDS in India: When Silence is Not Golden" (10); "AIDS in India: Abating, or Exploding" (21-3):-clear-worded Editorial and well-researched Special Report offer masses of facts on a expanding epidemic and a still imperfect official Indian policy. According to" the most conservative of estimates,600,000 Indians already have the disease and 4.58m are infected with HIV[- totals]second only to South Africa.[O]ne UN agency thinks the number of Indian infections will rise to 12m by 2015. Thegovernment itself...has said that even if it achieves its own objectives 9m Indians will be infected by 2010...CIA predicts 20m-25m by that date." Although the country gets substantial funds and experiencefrom abroad and domestic sources," India's campaign needs more money, and... stronger political commitment." Moreover, India's globally famous companies producing HIV/AIDS drugs see their cheap domestic role still constrained. On balance" forecasts of millions more infections seem horribly possible" ..

The Economist 01 May 04 "IDENTITY CARDS: Dangerous Data" (Editorial: 15); ":Will They Work?" (57-8):-some global dilemmas are being quickly amplified by two related trends:(1)new threats, and good or critical expansions, always created by accelerating technology e.g. modernized terrorism; (illegally)transferred beings and goods; rapidly accumulating health knowledge; financialmovement/credits/debts/taxes; many types of committed/planned crime; etc.;(2)rapid but correct identification of individuals; valued property; dangers/ rules/answers; knowledge transfer/creation, etc.Both multiple trends have pressured governments(and large companies)to design and make essential sophisticated "cards" . These articles report, with some detail and lots of complications, British government plans to create/issue "the most ambitious and intrusive national identity card scheme in Europe...Britons want cards to help stop illegal immigrants from working or using public services, and to fight terrorism andreduce fraud. They will compromise on personal privacy" (57). Economist is more cautious:" The real danger lies not in small plastic cards but in huge databases" (15). Material transits can be inhibited in cards/databases by strict jigsaws.

The Economist 22 May 04 "Suicide Bombers: Shireen and Others Like Her" (76-7):-article is dedicated to analysing what drives suicide bombers "to their ghastly deeds" . It consists of the reviews of three books: Christoph Reuter, My Life is a Weapon: A Modern History of Suicide Bombing (Princeton Univ. Press), 200pp, $24.95; Barbara Victor, Army of Roses: Inside the World of Palestinian Women Suicide Bombers(Rodale Press), 320 pp, $25.95; and John Fullerton, Give Me Death (Macmillan), 352 pp, 16.99 pounds.

The Economist 29 May 04 "Saudi Arabia and Oil: What If?" (Special Report: 69-70):-article studiespossibility/need for Saudi Arabia to reduce/control oil prices: A Letter from Osama bin Laden to US states:" 'You steal our wealth and oil at paltry prices because of your international influence and military threats. This theft is indeed the biggest theft ever witnessed by mankind'...The impact of these chilling words is still being felt in today's chaotic energy markets...[D]ecision by OPEC to increase quotas [t]his time may be different. A soaring world economy has sucked global inventories dry. Nearly every OPEC producer, save Saudi Arabia, is already producing about as much oil as it can. That means that any new OPEC promise of oil will have to come chiefly from the Saudis themselves...[W]hat was once unthinkable now seemspossible, perhaps even inevitable: a major terrorist attack, or series of attacks, on oil facilities within Saudi Arabia.[Since] Saudis keep several million barrels per day(bpd)of idle capacity on hand for emergencies[,t]his spare capacity allows the Saudis to moderate oil-price strikes[,and they] remain keen tomoderate prices by using their buffer capacity.[While]not everyone is worried.,.pessimists reckon that well-coordinated attacks could take as much as 6m-7m bpd of Saudi output off the market for weeks, andperhaps longer.[W]orld oil market react[ion] to such a blow...is clearly better equipped to handle a supply shock than it was [in] 1970s[:]rich world is much less energy intensive [,and] OECD countries now maintainlarge 'strategic reserves' of petroleum, and coordinate the release of these during emergencies...Even so, there is good reason to worry.

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Amorphous But Alive" (42-3):-since 11 Sep 01 "al-Qaeda [attacks] killed more than 1,000 people in more than a dozen countries. [E]xpert on group 'reckons that Mr. bin Laden is closer to achieving his goals than the West is to deterring him'.[IISS institute claims]only way to'depress recruitment and motivation'...would be to find 'currently elusive'solutions to messes such asIraq and Palestine. It guesses that 18,000-odd people, who were trained in terrorist tactics by[Afghan]Talibanregime...but escaped...may be...ready to help al-Qaeda" . Not including Iraq, US State claims fewer terrorist incidents in 2003 than for decades, and that coordinated police took "more than 3,400 suspected al-Qaeda people out of action, including two-thirds of [its] leaders" .But "[W]orld's security specialists are almost unanimously gloomy. They say it is no longer a question of if but when al-Qaeda will hit a western city again. Many expect it to explode a 'dirty bomb'- a device that scatters radioactive material. [It] has simply been forced to change its structure and tactics. For reasons of logistics and security, Mr. bin Laden nowappears to act mainly as a figurehead, ceding operational control to his chief lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri" . Preceding this: "Saudi Arabia: Why Terrorists are Targeting Islam's Holiest Land" (41-2). In Economist 26 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Setbacks for Terror" (49-52), tactical update on some Muslim governments' successes against serious jihadi terrorists. In Riyadh, Saudi police were able to kill four of country's most wanted terrorists, including al-Qaeda's local head, and netted further dozen suspects. Algerian army cornered al-Qaeda-loyal cell and killed seven guerrillas, of which four were identified senior leaders including group's commander. "In Bahrein and Morocco, police claimed to have rounded up two local jihadi cells. InPakistan... missile fired from helicopter killed Pushtun tribal leader known to have succoured al-Qaedafugitives. But if jihadi are down, they are certainly not out...al-Qaeda will soon strike back, if only to proveit is still punching" . Economist 14 Aug 04 "Chasing al-Qaeda: Plots, Alarms and Arrests" (22-4):-description of US "orange warning" due to "high risk" of terrorist attack on several institutions. "Though based on new-found intelligence, threat to US financial establishments was not new.[C]ache of al-Qaeda computer files...at least three years old." While large scale and immediate defence of reported targets was felt inappropriate by many, practice may be useful and political experience. "Such lessons will probably take another terrorist threat or two to master, but mastered they may eventually have to be. Because, as most al-Qaeda watchers agree, quick end to war on terror is very hard to envisage." Currentlimitations/inclinations of al-Qaeda, and activities of its opponents, discussed at some length.

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Amorphous But Alive" (42-3):-since 11 Sep 01 "al-Qaeda [attacks] killed more than 1,000 people in more than a dozen countries. [E]xpert on group 'reckons that Mr. bin Laden is closer to achieving his goals than the West is to deterring him'.[IISS institute claims]only way to'depress recruitment and motivation'...would be to find 'currently elusive'solutions to messes such asIraq and Palestine. It guesses that 18,000-odd people, who were trained in terrorist tactics by[Afghan]Talibanregime...but escaped...may be...ready to help al-Qaeda" . Not including Iraq, US State claims fewer terrorist incidents in 2003 than for decades, and that coordinated police took "more than 3,400 suspected al-Qaeda people out of action, including two-thirds of [its] leaders" .But "[W]orld's security specialists are almost unanimously gloomy. They say it is no longer a question of if but when al-Qaeda will hit a western city again. Many expect it to explode a 'dirty bomb'- a device that scatters radioactive material. [It] has simply been forced to change its structure and tactics. For reasons of logistics and security, Mr. bin Laden nowappears to act mainly as a figurehead, ceding operational control to his chief lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri" . Preceding this: "Saudi Arabia: Why Terrorists are Targeting Islam's Holiest Land" (41-2). In Economist 26 Jun 04 "Al-Qaeda: Setbacks for Terror" (49-52), tactical update on some Muslim governments' successes against serious jihadi terrorists. In Riyadh, Saudi police were able to kill four of country's most wanted terrorists, including al-Qaeda's local head, and netted further dozen suspects. Algerian army cornered al-Qaeda-loyal cell and killed seven guerrillas, of which four were identified senior leaders including group's commander. "In Bahrein and Morocco, police claimed to have rounded up two local jihadi cells. InPakistan... missile fired from helicopter killed Pushtun tribal leader known to have succoured al-Qaedafugitives. But if jihadi are down, they are certainly not out...al-Qaeda will soon strike back, if only to proveit is still punching" . Economist 14 Aug 04 "Chasing al-Qaeda: Plots, Alarms and Arrests" (22-4):-description of US "orange warning" due to "high risk" of terrorist attack on several institutions. "Though based on new-found intelligence, threat to US financial establishments was not new.[C]ache of al-Qaeda computer files...at least three years old." While large scale and immediate defence of reported targets was felt inappropriate by many, practice may be useful and political experience. "Such lessons will probably take another terrorist threat or two to master, but mastered they may eventually have to be. Because, as most al-Qaeda watchers agree, quick end to war on terror is very hard to envisage." Current limitations/inclinations of al-Qaeda, and activities of its opponents, discussed at some length.

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "Cuba: Hoping For a Transport Revolution" (36):- "Deep-water oil rig...moving into position...off Cuba's north-west coast to sink two wildcat wells in...Gulf of Mexico waters. Successcould turn Cuba into an oil exporter, transforming the economic outlook for Fidel Castro's bankrupt Communist regime" . In 1970s Cuba, Mexico and US shared the Gulf before deep-water oil could be taken;US oil industry might now throw its weight "behind [multiple]moves to abandon the trade embargo" . Canadianand Spanish firms have signed Cuban exploration agreements; others are watching. Cuban output of oil and gas now is 75,000bpd so fuel/energy are conserved and transport scarce. "Many experts say there is lotsof oil under Cuba's Gulf waters, as under those of Mexico and US...Any commercially viable deposit wouldtake five years and $1.5 billion to develop...An offshore oil strike would allow...Castro to offer Cubansand the country's creditors some relief after 15 years of penury" .

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "United States Battling Proliferation: Win Some, Lose Some" (25-6):- "Bushafter[11 Sep] attacks, promis[ed]to face down threat from spread of weapons of mass destruction.[He]will be pressing hard for curbs on proliferation to be treated as epoch-shaping issue.[M]essage...helpedconvince Libya...to speed its exit out of elicit mass-destruction business.[A]larming tales since emerged of..wholesale auctioning off of Pakistan's nuclear technologies, not just to Libya, but to North Korea, Iranand possibly others, led UN Security Council[at Bush's urging]to pass resolution obliging all governments to criminalise illicit weapons and technology transfers...Yet despite these diplomatic successes, andmoney being spent on securing'loose nukes' ,...strategy still has plenty of critics.[While US was focused on Iraq,]North Korea went on building more bombs[,]Iran thumbed its nose at[IAEA and others were]encouraged...to redouble their bomb-building." Many other relevant US activities and inconsistencies reported towards India/Iraq/Iran/Israel/North Korea. "Stricter enforcement of anti-proliferation rules has been hallmark of[Bush, since bin Laden/al-Qaeda positions]cast problem of treaty-breaking by roguegovernments with terrorist links in alarming new light. [S]trategy has had some success" :EO and Russian anti-proliferation action. "Bush wants to see greater restrictions on dangerous uranium-enrichment and plutonium-reprocessing technologies[,yet wants to keep US nuclear]test-site bit readier." Economist 03 Jul 04 "North Korea: Nuclear Chess" (35-6)and "Europe and Iran: A Common Flop" (42):-both comment on US' s differing history/negotiations with these two nuclear-threatening states. Regarding North Korea, concludes "may be hoping for deal to its liking if John Kerry wins US presidential election in Nov. MeanwhileGeorge Bush in no rush either.[S]cotched criticism from allies and Kerry alike by showing...negotiating seriously. He has not yet sacrificed anything in nuclear game with North Korea, and maybe gained a little." Second article, dealing with both European and US negotiations, concludes "Iran and Europeans seem now to be playing for time, awaiting outcome of Nov's presidential election in US. But whoever wins,US is unlikely to tolerate nuclear-arming Iran. Some Europeans hope that new administration might try talking to Iran. But, with US tied up in Iraq, Iranians may calculate time is on their side and - so long as IAEA finds nothing new - that Europeans will never agree among themselves to tougher line. If so, far from being success for Europe's common... policy, Iran could become big irritant in relations between US and Europe".

The Economist 12 Jun 04 "Shipping in South-East Asia: Going For the Jugular" (37-8):-18 Dec 99 and 21 Jul 01 items on serious pirate threats just off Asia, were summarized(op.cit.). Latest report offers even more facts, and concern about future. Shocking 2003 piracy map covers South-East Asia including all of Indonesia, plus Bangladesh, China, India, Sri Lanka coasts. Enlarged Strait of Malacca insert shows dangerous Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore shipping lane. "Some 50,000 vessels, carrying roughly a quarterof the world's maritime trade, pass through the strait every year. So do about half of all seaborne oilshipments, on which economies of Japan, China and South Korea depend. If terrorists were determined to devastate the world economy, it would be hard to find better target" . Concern is developingover "regional maritime security initiative" since strait and its littoral countries now "account for about a third of all pirate attacks in world" - and tripled over past decade. Strait is still "relatively poorly monitored" largely due to weak Indonesia. Thai-proposed land transit over Isthmus seems naive, but UNInternational Maritime Organization has" ruled that all vessels over 300 tonnes must install trackingsystem" before 2005.

The Economist 19 Jun 04 "The Bush Administration And the Torture Memo: What On Earth Were They Thinking?" (31-2):-since 11 Sep 01 disaster, there has been discussion in West on how US should handle serious prisoners. See Ignatieff, The Lesser Evil: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror; Wedgwood/Roth, "Combatants or Criminals? How Washington Should Handle Terrorists" Foreign Affairs(both op.cit.). "[N]ew and... embarrassing for Mr. Bush is detailed evidence that main source of legal opinion for his administration - office of legal counsel in Department of Justice - has been giving advice thatAmericans may(in normal sense of term)torture people abroad.[S]omebody leaked full text to Washington Post. [D]etails make ugly reading for any friend of[US]. Memo, which dates from Aug 02, looks at sections of legal code...which implements UN Convention against Torture. It claims torture can be justified on three grounds" . (1)US law "was intended to proscribe only most egregious conduct" : torture is more than just cruel/inhuman punishment.(2)President can do whatever he wants in war: this power ignores Congress' greater constitutional power.(3)US torturers could be prosecuted only if their main purpose was to inflict pain. Wedgewood says memo "defines its task oddly...[I]t asks 'what can we do and remain within law?'". Memo ignores or glides over US/international laws that ban or limit torture. In practice, US" authorizedtechniques seem to fall well outside even normal definitions of torture" .Economist 26 Jun 04 "The Torture Controversy: Fanning the Flames" :-more controversial information about Bush regime military practice. It released hundreds of pages from prisoner-torture memos; Justice Department said it was rewriting itslegal advice on how tough US interrogators can be. Memo collection" provides evidence for both sides", e.g.Rumsfeld authorized for two months" list of coercive techniques...including giving permission for prisonersto be stripped naked, terrorised with dogs and interrogated for up to 20 hours" .At UN, US dropped itsattempt to extend resolution giving its troops immunity from war crimes, " something other countries felt was attempt to undermine International Criminal Court". In Afghanistan: Rumsfeld designated one particular prisoner'non-person', "insisting that his name be removed from all official records"; US has "reserved right not to observe Geneva Conventions when handling suspected al Qaeda fighters" ;Guardian reports five or more suspects have died in US custody, with no prosecution although at least threewere ruled homicides; and it details abuse allegations, including prisoners beaten, humiliated, forced into pain.

The Economist 03 Jul 04 "The Supreme Court and Guantanamo Bay: Not Good Enough" (Edit.12); "The Supreme Court and Enemy Combatants: Too Far, Say the Judges" (23-4):-title/gist of many items on US handling of possible terrorists captured in combat areas after 11 Sep 01 are under Economist 19 Jun 04 "The Bush Administration..." . Locus of many such suspects has been Guantanamo, US army camp legally in Cuba." White House has managed to turn a generally reviled group of prisoners...into figures ofinternational sympathy...by denying these'enemy combatants' any semblance of western justice...[I]t hassought to deny detainees legal process of any kind, especially in US courts, deprived them of independentlegal advice and now intends to send them to military commissions...This week, US judicial system began long task of righting this huge wrong. Supreme Court said that Bush had right to hold combatants without trial but, crucially, it decided that detainees at Guantanamo could have recourse to US courts - something Bush has(disgracefully)fought...It could be years before independent courts resolve individualcases and it is unclear what rights of recourse detainees now have. However, by affirming that'state of war is not blank cheque for president', court struck important blow: 595 detainees in Cuba...will now start their various appeals to federal courts...So progress has been made. But it is plainly not enough, and it is also clumsy: judges are making US terrorist laws because politicians have not done so" (12). Supreme Court gave prisoners "one of oldest rights in book, writ of habeas corpus, which is way of challenging imprisonment by requiring explanation of why someone is being held...What sort of legal proceeding is appropriate? [C]ourt may be trying to nudge administration into some sort of Geneva Convention-like judicialprocess, perhaps allowing trials using lower standards of proof. [I]n future litigation...big effect of decisions will be to constrain executive power and force administration to submit to some(albeit unclear)level of judicial oversight.[D]ecisions may be early signs of changing attitude towards international law. Court's rulings on prisoners were rooted in US precedent and legal practices.

The Economist 10 Jul 04 "Weapons of Mass Destruction: If You Push, I'll Shove" (40-1):-gloomy report on Middle East nuclear prospects. Arabs fear Israel of possessing 200 nuclear bombs plus new deliveryforms; Israel points at chemical- and possibly biological-tipped missiles in neighbours. Balance of insecurity always uneasy, and may be eroding, even though Iraqi and Libyan nuclear developments wereundone. Head Mohamed ElBaradei of IAEA in Israel suggested it hold talks on nuclear-weapons-free zonein Middle East - before too late. He wants security talks in parallel with diplomacy, but opportunities so faroutweighed by threats. "Libya...helped expose vast global black market in uranium enrichment and other militarily useful skills centred on Pakistani scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan. Since Iran tapped into same illicit network, all this helped IAEA expose its 18 years of nuclear-safeguards violations: illegal nuclear experiments set out in series of reports for all to see. Yet, troubingly, Iran shows no sign yet of giving up dangerous technologies it has developed...Although Khan had admitted to selling his nuclear wares only to Iran, Libya and North Korea...suspicions others may have availed themselves of his services. Although all supposedly bound by their non-nuclear promise under NPT, few Arab governments have accepted more intrusivesafeguards and inspection regime [Economist 05 Jun "United States Battling Proliferation:.." op.cit.]. Saudi Arabia has no safeguards agreement with IAEA...Having helped..to finance both Libya's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons pursuits...it may have bought itself option on Pakistani bomb...Syria, which already has chemicaland biological weapons,...may now have covert uranium enrichment capability[and raises fears it could]acquire plutonium. If Iran[gets]bomb, it is not only Israel that might be alarmed. Egypt has potentially militarily useful nuclear skills and increasingly sophisticated missile programme. Algeria has suspiciously large nuclear reactor in Sahara, surrounded by missile defences.[E]ven Turkey...could reconsider non-nuclearpledge, should others in region seem about to renege on theirs. Much depends on whether Iran's nuclear ambitions can be checked before it has bomb.[F]inger-pointing could yet turn deadly."

The Economist 24 Jul 04 "The United Nations: A Winning Recipe For Reform?" (45-6):-UN Security Councilwas set up in 45 as small, mainly key-victors' , group intended to decide/implement means ofcreating/ensuring world peace. Fundamental Western/democratic and USSR-dominating/communistgroups, with vetos, maintained such confrontation of each other that UNSC could almost never play role until end of Cold War. Meanwhile powerful war-losers and major postwar poor nations sought greaterUNSC roles too. "Kofi Annan, UNSG, set up'high-level panel of eminent personalities' to assess UN's rolein dealing with new global threats.[Interim report]appeared near agreement on one of most intractable issues..-composition of powerful decision-making body, UNSC.[E]veryone is agreed that if UNSC decisionsare to have greater political clout, they must be given greater legitimacy. [D]iscussion ...showed an 'overwhelming consensus' on proposals for expanded 24-member UNSC of 3 tiers: existing permanent 5(China, France, Russia, UK and US); second tier of 7 or 8 potentially semi-permanent members elected onregional basis for renewable term of 4 or 5 years(Brazil, Germany, India, Japan and South Africa might be in this group); and third tier of rotating regional members elected, as at present, for non-renewable 2-year term. Only permanent 5 would have veto...UNSC membership is supposed to be based not just on regional diversity, but also on members' willingness to contribute to world peace and security. But over years, many countries have ignored second criterion. Now panel want to reinforce it, particularly as basis on which thoseaspiring to second tier of membership should be judged. It suggests full review, after 12-15 years, of all members' contributions to work of UN, including its peacekeeping missions' manpower and financing. Panel has divided rest of its work into 6'baskets' : classic inter-state conflict; internal violence, includinggenocide; social and economic threats, such as poverty and disease; weapons of mass destruction;terrorism; and organized crime and corruption. Group decided early on to abandon any distinctionbetween'hard'threats, which worry rich world most, and'soft'threats, of greater concern to rest of humanity.Both, it agreed, were inextricably linked. Most difficult question has been how to deal with pre-emptive or preventive attacks, as on Iraq.[I]t recommends more active role for UNSC, under which it could authorise preventive use of force, but only after'serious and sober assessment'of threat based on'clear and compelling evidence'.[A]ppears also to have won consensus on humanitarian intervention.[P]anel hasalready confounded its critics with boldness of its proposals. It may do so again."

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "The Laws of War: Trials and Tribulations" (27-8):-article contains so much important information about legalism against/within Pentagon, select outline offered. Follows two groups ofEconomist articles summarized above: 19 Jun "The Bush Administration And the Torture Memo:..." and 03 Jul "The Supreme Court and Guantanamo Bay:..." , first phrases of first titles in each. Two badly-treated groups of US military "prisoners" were "legally" reported on. In Abu Ghraib, Iraqi jail, military prisoners were tortured by US; in Guantanamo Bay, perpetually leased US naval base in Cuba, status of 600 mostly-Afghanistan-captured, possibly terrorist individuals, had been viewed for years as unaffected byUS/Cuban/Afghan/international law. Two reports on responsibility for Abu Ghraib action: by Major-General George Fay, head of internal army inquiry, which blamed abuse on" small group of morally corrupt soldiers and civilians" ; by James Schlesinger, former defence secretary and head of independent panel, which attributes worst abuse to unauthorised" freelance" activities by soldiers, and makes 14 recommendations on how to avoid further brutalities. As regards Guantanamo Bay detainees, Supreme Court had ruled in Jun they had right to challenge their detention in US courts, "until now plunged into what has been described as legal black hole" .American Bar Association condemned" widespread pattern of abusive detention methods[which]feed terrorism by painting US as an arrogant nation above law" .Schlesinger urges government to "update" approach to international humanitarian law, taking particular heed of case for" reciprocity and preservation of US societal values international image that flows from adherence to recognised humanitarian standards." Administration has introduced military commissions to begin preliminary hearings in trials of first four detainees, 2.5 years after first terrorist suspects arrived. Pentagon insists tribunals will give detainees "full and fair" trials in accordance with international standards of justice, and states them.Military defence lawyers object. General arguments on both sides described.

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "A Robot Interpreter: Elevate Your Hands Or I Ignite" (42):-short item reports very amusingly about "high-tech weapon for war to win Iraqi hearts and minds" .[I will add some broader implications. Sorry.]US excels at" technological wizardry and not speaking foreign languages" . "Phaselator" is palm-held electronic polyglot that can translate spoken English into other tongues and "built by firm in Maryland called VoxTec" which got seed funds from Pentagon which needed machine that could speak Arabic, among other languages. For war activity it saves interpreters' lives/wages/prejudices($2,300 per device)-and gets no argumentative replies. Company already exploring possibility for disaster relief, tourism and quick product-use instruction. [Since one could presumably develop them equally as one-way talkers between any two languages, two people with complementary devices could presumablycommunicate both ways. Instantly rules out global need for any more teaching/learning in any languageat all but your own and wipes out English study as globally necessary/popular. It also saves very rare languages that are now spoken only by last handfuls of people. It also offers optimum crimes to all; persuasive.]

The Economist 18 Sep 04 "The Muslim World: The War For Islam's Heart" (51-2):-quite an objective essay on how and why Muslims are deeply split in reaction to "Islamic" terrorism. Neither its intense supporters nor horrified critics are predicted to win unquestioned support. Since 11 Sep 01, "anguish among world's 1.2b Muslims has not diminished. Other Muslim fanatics carried out other fearful crimes in name of Islam. And non-Muslim armies have stomped into Muslim-populated lands to prosecute war on terrorthat some perceive as war on Islam. Result is that ordinary Muslims find themselves confronted with increasingly fierce claims for possession of their faith. Rival narratives have emerged at either end of the extremely broad Muslim spectrum, and they could scarcely be more different.[Some decry]fact that, while it is obvious all Muslims not terrorists, it is sadly apparent...nearly all terrorists happen to be Muslims. [Yet spokesman for Iraqi jihadist group claims:]Wherever you cast your eye... you find only one truth, which is that infidels are slaying Muslims' in every way , in every land, and with overspilling hatred'...Withgrowing stridency, Muslim liberals are saying that it is high time for Muslims to act, to stop their faith from being hijacked and turned into cult-like vehicle for clash of civilizations. Their sense is that violence of radical minority is not merely ruining sympathy for just Muslim causes in such contested places as Chechnya and Palestine, it is beginning to threaten Muslims' peaceful coexistence with others everywhere. For their part, jihadists[are convicted] that sympathy for Muslim causes never existed in the first place.Islam...is so imperilled that fighting for its survival is not merely right, but sublime duty. And so vicious are its enemies that any means may be used to deter them, more shockingly cruel, more effective. Ultimately, they believe, Islam will triumph only if all foreign influence is chased from vast, unified Islamic state." Item then looks at reaction of non-Muslim world, and Muslim perception/tales/fears.

The Economist 02 Oct 04 "Near-Earth Objects: Far Away, So Close" (80):-item reports asteroid several kilometres in diameter had just come within 1.5m km of earth. If it had hit, it might have ended human civilization. Event leads article on current asteroid surveys and defences(for previous threat items seeAssociated Press 12 Jan 00 op.cit.). "Spaceguard[asteroid search program by NASA]began in 98. Since then...number of known near-Earth objects [NEOs](includes...also comets whose orbits regularly sweep them close)increased dramatically. Spaceguard's stated goal was to discover 90% of near-Earth asteroids larger than 1km in width by 2008...Value of 1km chosen as cut-off because asteroids this size or larger...likely to cause global...calamity...Over 70% of large asteroids...found already... But even if Spaceguard does succeed, another problem remains-smaller asteroids, of size believed to have causeda huge explosion above Tunguska, Russia, 1908. While 1km-size and bigger asteroids thought to hit onlyonce every 500,000 years, on average, rocks 50-100 metres across, like Tunguska object, thought to hit every thousand years... [S]hould start in 08 to catalogue 90% of potentially hazardous NEOs...bigger than 140 metres.[D]espite success of efforts so far, and likely success of future efforts,...no official plan in place for dealing with any hazardous asteroid... found to be on collision course.[D]etonating nuclear weapon next to object to divert its course seen as too uncertain. Alternative - strapping rocket engines to rock and using their thrust to alter orbit - would not work either, unless project began several decades before impact.[S]cientists' ...goal to develop way of altering course of asteroid using an ion rocket, which pusheselectrically charged atoms out of the back...[S]ystem could be ready testing by 2015."

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "The United Nations: Time For A Re-Think" (Edit.15-6) "United Nations: Fighting For Survival" (25-7):-this historically important Special Report provides a careful, yet positive, summary of a realistic but strongly positive set of recommendations, agreed on by a panel appointed by Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General. The 16-member group, composed of top-level but independent worthies from all regions of globe, was instructed to submit UN-reform proposals related to Organization's effective coordination of collective security in face of unprecedented global threats. Editorial supports reforms carefully but as essential. UN" embodies collective will and wisdom of imperfect world...Report on how UN might in future better contribute to international security - mobilizing its own and world's resources, to prevent crises where possible and to deal with them more resolutely and effectively where necessary - is due...Yet the thoughtful debate such proposals deserve risks getting lost in poisonous war of words.[Those]who brush against UN as irrelevant in today's world are...dangerously short-sighted.World's most powerful country/top gun has its problems. With global interests and global reach, US is most often called on to right world's wrongs. It should have keen interest in rules-based system whichkeeps that burden to minimum and finds way for others, including UN, to share it...Agreed rules for all to play as much as possible makes strategic sense too.[Yet]system of international rules/treaties/laws is stilla hodge-podge. Some, like UN Charter, deemed universal, though...sometimes ignored.[P]rohibitions against proliferation of...weapons accepted by many but not all. Some disputes can be settled in court...but only where governments give nod...UN Security Council is where most serious disputes end.There trouble can start. UNSC not moral conscience of world. It is connection of states pursuing divergentinterests, albeit...with sense of responsibility. Where it can agree, consensus lends legitimacy toaction...Getting UNSC to mean what it says would help restore some lost credibility. Getting it to evolve collective thinking about international legal niceties in tune with evolving threats...is vital too. It has latelylearned to lean harder on genocidal dictators...Now it needs to contemplate earlier and sometimes evenforceful action by itself or others against threats...where delay[,including if too many members,]couldinvite catastrophe ...All the more reason why Annan's eminences deserve proper hearing." Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via the CFR directly. This is an expert interview with Lee Feinsteinwho" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects. Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus preliminary comments by its requester/addressee,UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from the Secretary General's part of the UN file(www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)is also available at the same address.

The Economist 12 Feb 05"The Drug 'War'in Latin America: Next Steps in Colombia"(Edit.11); "Battles Won, a War Still Lost"(35-6):-issue reports on two basically different ways of defending human beings/ societies against dangerous potential of drugs. Editorial: "[I]n 2000[US] launched ambitious program of mainly military aid called Plan Colombia...Bush proposes to keep aid to Colombia largely unchanged in 2005-06, at some $742m. Before this becomes a permanent commitment, US and Colombians should look carefully at its value... [A]s always in war on drugs, victories are illusory. Cocaine is as cheap as ever.Drug prohibition in rich countries continues to fail - at huge cost for Latin American democracies, whose battle to enforce rule of law is contested by powerful drug mobs. In five years, Plan Colombia has offered no evidence to weaken The Economist's conviction that cocaine should be legalised (though its use, like that of tobacco, should be discouraged)"."In 2004, contractors working for US sprayed herbicide on 136,000 [Colombian]hectares of coca, similar amount to previous year. In 2004, almost 150 tonnes of cocaine seized in country, third more than 2003, while 1,900 cocaine labs were destroyed...166 Colombians [extradited] to face drug charges...in US...Yet to many..,Andean drug trade seems as effective/dangerous as ever. Most telling evidence is price of cocaine.[I]n US a gram of cocaine wholesaled for $38 in 2003, down from $48 in 2000...In Britain, cocaine is cheaper than ever.[C]onsumption is broadly flat in North America, according to UN, but rising in Europe.,.Brazil, Mexico and Central America. [One] explanation is that coca has spread to new areas, some undetected, and yields/productivity are rising."Drugs in Canada: Under the Needle"(36-7):-Canada is groping towards a distinctive approach to drugs, one that focuses on harm reduction rather than the repression favoured by US. North America's first trial of heroin maintenance -giving addicts free heroin on condition that accept treatment - [just]got under way[but]will[soon]expand. [Site]curbing disease and deaths among addicts...All will get help with health/housing/job training...More broadly, [Canada]will test whether heroin maintenance, used in Switzerland/Netherlands, will work in North America. Hope is that if hard-core addicts no longer have to commit crimes to fund habits,...more likely to become productive citizens/leave drugs behind...Researchers reckon heroin maintenance...cheaper."

The Economist 19 Mar 05"Reforming the Intelligence Services: The Spy Game"(Edit.13); "America's[US] Intelligence Reforms: Can Spies Be Made Better?"(29-31); "Britain's Intelligence Services: Cats' Eyes In the Dark"(32-4):-Editorial concludes:"In both Britain and US, the spies remain on watch. Current trends -terrorism and proliferation - have made their work both more important and much harder. Meanwhile, comforting idea that technology would make spying more of a high-tech science was blown apart by 11 Sep and Iraq fiasco; it is now a more risky, more human affair where real eyes and ears matter. So farspooks have been given much of what wanting: more money/more power/relatively gentle reorganisation.Now need to prove their worth." Item on US intelligence reforms:"Truth is, no one knows how the reforms will proceed. [John Negraponte, first director of national intelligence (DNI)] may gain a modicum of controlover the agencies. At best, he may ensure that the information channels opened within and between theagencies after the hijack attacks stay open. Yet, on his own at least, he will not be able to fix the agencies' most grievous problems, highlighted by their performance on Iraq... Further organizational reform would not eliminate problem. US spies do not necessarily need shifting; a good few need sacking." Item onBritish intelligence reform: "Can challenging and questioning be made part of the spy culture?... Britain'sintelligence services have been feeling their limitations lately. The [11 Sep 05 terrorist attacks and the invasion of Iraq] have forced a rethink in the way things are done - and have led to the most substantial reshaping of the intelligence community since 1946-48... Terrorist-related intelligence... now has to bepassed to Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre(JTAC). [Post-Iraq,] the new system is intended to givetechnical specialists more weight, to engender greater scepticism about the material gathered, and to licence every member of the British intelligence community, when necessary, to speak truth to power".

The Economist 16 Jul 05"In Europe's Midst"(Edit.13-4):-"Four young British Muslims became zealots, and the zealots became suicide-bombers.";"Muslim Extremism in Europe: The Enemy Within" (Special Report24-6);-"What turns a man into a terrorist, and what can be done about it?";US:"Fighting Terrorism: Imagining Something Much Worse Than London"(27-8):-"The unwieldy Department of Homeland Securityhas a timely reorganisation, aimed at focusing on most dangerous threats."; "Jihadists in the Middle East: Cradle of War, School of Jihad"(41-2):-"Al-Qaeda's allies turned Iraq into new Afghanistan.";"Israel's Suicide-Bombing: Ploughing on Regardless"(42):-"Suicide-bombers try to derail the Gaza pullout.";"Italy and Terrorism: The Next Target?"(44-5):-"Terrorism is 'knocking at Italy's door, says the interior minister. Most Italians need no persuading."; "London: After the Bombs"(52-3):-"How four suicide attacks by British citizens have changed Britain."; "Ethnic Relations: One Step Back"(53):-"Attacks in London will test analready-embattled group."; "Terrorism Insurance: Change of Calculation"(71):-"The bombings in Londonmay affect a US debate.":-after the serious suicide-bomber explosions of 07 Jul in London, Economisteither collected from professionals, or at least presented in valuable forms, a vast and expert variety of related - and serious - information in the nine good articles listed here. Following each title, their official summaries are offered, since they are both clear and succinct. I particularly stress the Special Report, not because it is critical of Muslims/Islamic doctrine (it isn't), but since it describes how and why young men can become mass killers. (Young) people with twisted/frustrated attitudes can gain/use mass weapons relatively easily in virtually any state on earth and regardless of their religions. (My concern about gradual but inherent global trends of this sort, started this future-looking bibliography over ten years ago...)

The Economist 23 Jul 05"Counter-Terrorism in Europe: The Fight Within"(45-6):-"In fits and starts,European countries are learning to co-operate more closely, and to share intelligence, in battle against terrorism... EU members made copious promises to co-operate in fight against terror. An 'action plan', including 150 separate measures, was launched in [Jun 04]. Some two-thirds of these have been translated into political decisions...'Situation centre'in Brussels, where EU members share intelligence assessments, has begun looking at domestic threats as well as external ones... European Commissionproposed more measures, including making explosives more easily traceable and restricting sales of farmfertiliser. EU's embryonic law-enforcement institutions - Europol police agency, and Eurojust, through which prosecutors co-operate - are heavily engaged in anti-terrorism work, building relations with their much bigger brothers in US... Important decisions will come this autumn, such as making personal data more easily available to investigators while also introducing an EU-wide system of data protection. Treading delicately in sensitive territory, the commission is preparing a paper on 'radicalisation'- politelanguage for discontent among young Muslims that prompts a few to become terrorists. But officials stress this will describe problem, not prescribe solutions; only national governments can do that. Nor is there any guarantee that common threats will translate into common action... At everyday level, barriersto co-operation are rarely insuperable... Individual acts of co-operation between European countries areone thing. Longer-term efforts to turn counter-terrorism into a pan-European activity are something else...Moreover, problems are not just legal and technical, but political and ethical. In all European countries,hard questions have been posed by the twin challenges of terrorism and Muslim disaffection."

The Economist 03 Sep 05"Drugs in Colombia: Hand Picked"(36):-item reports on developments in Latin American state that follow those in Economist's item of 12 Feb 05 above, and constitute"New twists in war on coca"."Colombia's government has based its push against the country's illegal cocaine industryon a massive campaign of aerial spraying of the coca crop with glyphosate, a weed-killer... According to surveys by UN Office on Drugs and Crime, land under coca in Colombia shrank to 86,000 hectares in 2003 from a peak of 163,300 hectares in 2000. But, since then, spraying seems to have brought diminishing returns. According to latest UN survey, land under coca fell only 7% in 2004, to 80,000 hectares even though 136,000 hectares sprayed. So Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's president, has changed tactics. Most important is to pull more coca bushes up by hand... Manual eradiction... cheaper... than spraying. It is more effective, too, as coca requires repeat applications of glyphosate before it dies... Officials say that aerial spraying will remain mainstay of their anti-drug effort. But critics point out that while demand for cocaine remains unchanged, spraying merely drives coca cultivation deeper under jungle canopy, where harder to detect, as well as stimulating development of higher-yielding and herbicide-resistant varieties. Uribe recently suggested that his government buy coca crop from farmers. That smacks of desperation. Not first Latin American president to find himself squeezed uncomfortablybetween US pressure to win 'war on drugs' and market realities that make victory so hard".

The Economist 08 Oct 05"Terrorism: The Bomber Will Always Get Through"(Edit.12-3); "Indonesia: Bali, Again"(51-2):-Editorial addresses general threat of terrorism in Indonesia, South-East Asia, and world."Once again,a balmy Bali night has been ripped apart by bombs, aimed at innocent foreign holidaymakersthough mostly killing innocent Indonesians... This latest outrage may have succeeded in reminding world of region's vulnerability, but its perpetrators losing. Caliphate was always a crazy vision, and bombersare failing to achieve even their more modest ambitions... If caliphate is unrealisable dream, what do terrorists in South-East Asia seek to achieve? One purpose of terror is to force governments intorepressive measures, which alienate people and then, supposedly, generate support for causes terrorists espouse. There is not much sign of this happening anywhere in South-East Asia, with exception of ham-fisted reponse of Thai government to its separatist movement. Constraints of democracy have mostly keptresponse to terror proportionate... Another of aims of terrorism is to inflict economic damage, soweakening target government. Yet there is little sign of this happening either. All of South-East Asia'seconomies, even that of Philippines, are more or less booming, growing at 4% a year or better. Indonesia's grew by 5.2% in second quarter of this year. Most terrorists can hope for is to hurt notoriously nervy tourist trade. But tourism is only about 5% of Indonesia's economy, lower figure than for most other countries in region... Terrorists will always manage to kill people, if they are cunning enough or pick easy enough targets... But for terrorists, this is far cry from victory". Article stresses:"Indonesia resolutely unspooked".

The Economist 12 Nov 05"Torture: How To Lose Friends And Alienate People"(Edit.14-6):-Essence: "Bush administration's approach to torture beggars belief", yet deep concerns regarding irresponsible actionsby US government are of global relevance. Detailed case against use of torture by any government was stated by Michael Ignatieff The Lesser Evil:..(op.cit.). Thrust of Editorial: "You would imagine Bush would welcome issue where US position should be luminously clear - namely amendment passed by Congress[90-9] to ban US soldiers/spies from torturing prisoners. Indeed,after disastrous stories of prisoner abuse,.. you might imagine that a shrewd president would have sponsored such a law himself to set record straight. But you would be wrong. [Bush] lamely tried to explain...he would veto any such bill, but 'We do not torture'. [Bill states:]'no individual in custody or under physical control of US government, regardless of nationality or physical location, shall be subject to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment'. [Aim:]to clear up any doubt that could possibly exist about US standards. That doubt does, alas, exist - and has been amplified by administration's heavy-handed efforts to stifle...amendment... White House has steadfastly tried to keep 'enemy combatants' beyond purview of US courts, whose defencesecretary has publicly declared Geneva Conventions do not apply to battle against al-Qaeda, and whoseJustice once produced infamous memo explaining how torture was part of president's war powers...Some people think there should be system of 'torture warrants' for special cases. But where exactlyshould line be drawn?... If the pragmatic gains in terms of information yielded are dubious, losses to USin terms of public opinion are clear and horrifically large... Administration has...contrived to turn US' s own human-rights record into subject of legitimate debate... World still waiting for clear statement of US principles on treatment of detainees... Every enemy of terrorism should hope[Bush signs] soon".

The Economist 03 Dec 05"Climate Change And the North Atlantic: The Sound of Distant Howling"(Edit.11);"Climate Change: Restricted Circulation"(76-7):-Editorial is officially summarized as: "Signs of climate change are hard to be sure about. But the latest do look alarming". It argues: "[I]t is now possible to discern a dim howling in the distance. [C]urrents that do moving change from time to time [can] change in a matter of decades. [W]hat history and models describe, may actually be happening at the moment to currents in the North Atlantic. If true, it would mean a cooler future for north-west Europe - possibly a lot cooler. And that future would be close; the change could happen over the course of two or three decades. Moreover, the most plausible explanation for the shift is, paradoxically, global warming. [Fairly complex oceanographic trends/explanation are carefully described in second item. R]esult [of alreadyavailable data] is about as rebust as can be expected. [P]ractitioners can now afford instruments and infrastructure to monitor parts of the ocean continuously. The truth will soon out and [demand] more effort into looking at how governments should respond if north-west Europe does get significantly colder. [F]inding also provides a reason to think more clearly about whole issue of climate change. [Current] international meeting in Montreal... is supposed to begin process of sketching out what post-Kyoto world might look like. This result may focus minds, whether focus directed towards trying to stop global warming or, if decided climate change unstoppable, working out best ways to live with it".

The Economist 10 Dec 05"Grounds For Hope on Global Warming: Don't Despair"(Edit.11-2):-the initial/front-cover Editorial makes a strong case in favor of following the imperfect 1997 UN Kyoto Protocol - which US has refused to implement - with an even more urgent global agreement. "Costs of cutting carbon emissions pile up in short term, while benefits are far-off/uncertain. Given these difficulties, fact thatKyoto was signed at all, looks like achievement. So is fact that it established right goal - binding targets for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions - and got 150 countries to sign up. International Energy Agencyreckons industrialised signatories look like hitting their target of cutting their greenhouse gas emissionsto 5% below their 1990 level by 2012. But holes in treaty are so huge - US didn't sign up, and developingcountries don't have targets - that even with Kyoto in place, at their current rate of increase, globalemissions look like increasing by 50% between now and 2030. In consequence, global environmentmeeting [now] in Montreal to discuss better ways of implementing Kyoto, rather cheerless... However, while Kyoto is stuck, world is moving on. In past 7 years... much has changed"."Climatology: Changing Science"(89-90)reports"past year has seen [important detections:"climate seems particularly changeable at moment" which] help to disentangle signal and noise. First, and most basic, is continuation of warming trend at Earth's surface... Second is that Arctic... does indeed show signs of rapid warming... Third isresolution of an inconsistency , [showing both temperature on ground and futher up in atmosphere are]rising in parallel...Fourth is... in the way world's oceans have warmed up... induced by greenhouse gases...Fifth is observation in reality of predicted link between increased sea-surface temperatures and frequency of most intense categories of hurricane, typhoon and tropical storm... Sixth is observation ocean currents in North Atlantic are faltering (op.cit.)... Signal, in other words, looks strong... That the climate is warming now seems certain. And though magnitude of any future warming remains unclear, human activity seemsmost likely cause... Too rapid or too great a warming... risks serious, unpleasant and in some casesirreversible changes... If greenhouse-gas emissions are to be capped,... a mixture of political will and technological fixes are needed". A list of technological fixes('wedges' ): "greater efficiency, decarbonisedelectricity, decarbonised fuels, fuel displacement by low-carbon electricity, methane management, andnatural carbon sinks". Examples of renewable energy sources in 10 Dec 05"Technology Quarterly: Sunrise for Renewable Energy?"(op.cit.18-20). To return to Editorial, it states: "News from business and from politics is ambiguous. Business, which was once solidly against controlling carbon emissions, now divided. [Its] growing interest partly public relations, but there's solider economic self-interest involved, too. Companies are investing in renewables because gap in cost between them... and conventional energy sources is shrinking [TQ]. Not just small companies run by idealists betting on environmentally-friendly technology. GE, world's largest energy-equipment supplier, convinced there's money to be made from technologies such as clean coal". See "Special Report: The Greening of General Electric: A Lean, Clean Electric Machine"(77-9) which describes how "Jeffrey Immelt is betting the future of his company on environmental technologies". The more companies invest in green technology, greater the chances that their customers... will buy the stuff and thus cut their emissions. But two main determinants of whether or not this will happen are oil prices and governments". The final portion of Editorial appearsdoubtful regarding an overwhelming impact from critically lowered oil prices. Much describes how apan-European carbon-trading system was launched this year (op.cit.), how many local US governments and businesses do likewise, and how public opinions and national (e.g. Chinese) policies show growing concern. Such developments should affect Montreal meeting's decisions.

The Economist 17 Dec 05"Climate Change: Pricking the Global Conscience"(77):-item follows the above10 Dec 05 'Montreal'items, concluding:"UN conference on global warming makes progress, sort of". Itfirst recalls Kyoto Protocol "obliges many industrialised countries (but notably not US) to cut emissions of greenhouse gases(GHGs) by fixed amount below their 1990 levels by 2012. Treaty's 150+ signatorieshad hoped to map rough outline of what should come after[wards. But] US delegation strongly opposedthem, insisting that too early to contemplate life after Kyoto... Canada's PM... denounced US positionand invoked need for 'global conscience'to deal with this most global of problems. US' s chief negotiator stormed off, throwing meeting into chaos. Talks looked destined to fail. Canada's friends [includingAustralia, China, ex-president Clinton stressing many US already cutting GHGs] came to rescue. Finding itself isolated, US delegation reluctantly returned [and] compromise deal 10 Dec. Final pact not quite 'historic agreement', but makes progress in 3 broad areas. First, signatories agreed on details essential for implementation of pact [e.g. compliance rules; credits for reducing GHGs in poor/former-Soviet states].Second, agreed future climate talks [(1) signatories on second-period targets; (2) all on possible UNclimate pact. Third,] promote carbon capture/sequestration technologies and get serious aboutadaptation to climate change. Carbon sequestration matters as world cannot meet [both] energy needs/ climate goals without technologies for using vast global reserves of coal in ways that do not contribute to global warming. Adaptation matters because... many aspects of global warming already inevitable[e.g.sea-level will continue to rise for decades]. Summit therefore deserves credit for bringing US back into UN's climate negotiations. Greater still if serious efforts to adapt to inevitable consequences".

The Economist 24 Dec 05"Japan's Humanoid Robots: Better Than People"(58-9):-thrust of major essayconcentrates on one society's special needs and wishes in a vital area: "Why the Japanese want their robots to act more like humans". However, if civilization of planet continues, Japan's robotic future willnot be unique: eventually all global societies will - more and more - both want and need humanoids to do jobs that ultimately humans won't or can't do. Highlights: "With too few young workers supporting anageing population, somebody - or something - needs to fill the gap, especially since many of Japan's youngpeople will be needed in science, business and other creative or knowledge-intensive jobs... Consensus among Japanese is that visions of a future in which immigrant workers live harmoniously and unobtrusivelyin Japan are pure fancy. Making humanoid robots is clearly simple and practical way to go. Japan certainly has the technology. It is already world leader in making industrial robots, which look nothing like... people but increasingly do much of the work in its factories... Japan will need workers, and it is learning how to make robots that can do many...jobs. But... keen interest in robots may also reflect something else: it seems that plenty of Japanese really like dealing with robots. [M]ost Japanese view robots as friendly and benign.Robots like people, and can do good.;. and native religion...does not make clear distinctions betweeninanimate things and organic beings... Japanese popular culture has also consistently portrayed robots in positive light... Japanese public [may even] hope that real-world robots will soon be able to pursue good[global assistance]...Japan free to make use of a great new tool, just when its needs and abilities happilyabout to converge. [ Since robots can avoid the complexity of Japanese personal contacts,] researchersforging ahead with research on human interfaces. [I]nteractive robots' ... advantages for... users willmultiply... Eventually interactive robots going to become more common, not just in Japan but in other rich countries as well...What seems to set Japan apart from other countries is that few Japanese are all thatworried about effects hordes of robots might have on citizens". [Accelerating speed/scale of human travel, in my view, may globally complicate social relations, but perhaps eased by language/culture-aiding robots.]

The Economist 14 Jan 06"Nuclear Proliferation: Misreading Iran"(Edit.16); "Iran's Nuclear Programme: When the Soft Talk Has to Stop"(Special Report 29-31); "Iran's Psychology: Whistling in the Gloom"(30):-Special Report is summarized by the essence of the global dilemma when a medium-sized state appears determined to create nuclear weapons either for military or terrorists' use: "Now that Iran is crossing a clear red line, what can the world do?" Editorial highlights:"In truth, [Iran under President Ahmadinejad] is not irrational. It has so far played a shrewd and winning hand both in Iraq and in its nuclear game of cat-and-mouse with the West and IAEA. Nor unpredictable [-its] long-standing plan to put itself [closer to] building an atomic bomb(see SR. So]Iran is dangerous. [Israel would see itself threatened by a nuclear Iran, but more likely dangers are that it] might feel emboldened to pursue a more adventurous foreign policy [and that] many other countries [in Mideast] will be sorely tempted to follow... Iran's [foreign] fearsare understandable [although it] no longer faces a threat from its historical foe[: Iraq. Yet it] may be thatIran just isn't the status quo power the soothers want to think it is. Its leaders... remain loyal to Khomeini's legacy - intent on mastering their region and fulfilling Iran's destiny as vanguard of militant Islam. If that is the case, it is not only Israel that has much to fear if Iran breaks out of NPT to go nuclear. So does US,which in Iran may come to face an even more potent opponent than al-Qaeda... So do the Arab regimes...Maybe there are two Irans, oscillating between fear and ambition. Whichever.,. it is clear by now thatrelying on talk alone to stop Iran from going nuclear has failed. It is time to go to UNSC and try sanctions".Economist 06 May 06"A Nuclear Iran: Unstoppable?"(Edit.13-4); "Iran and the Bomb: A Government That Thrives on Defiance"(Special Report 25-6); "The Neighbours: A Sequel Nobody Wants"(Special Report 26-7):-Editorial updates the above and is summarized by:"Be tough now, to prevent military conflict later". It concludes: "A combination of tougher penalties and juicier carrots may still not be enough to avoid a crisis. But they are surely worth a try". The two elements of Special Report are thoughtful about political trends/thinking in/by both Iran and its varied neighbours. The first concludes:"In this time of uncertainty, the [Iranian] authorities see their job as that of managing public opinion. Military attacks might make it easier, since would surely galvanise Iranians against the foreign aggressor. The impact of new sanctionsis harder to assess. Ahmadinejad's pugnacious optimism, however, may soon be tested. The second concludes:"Given the choice between eventual acceptance of a nuclear Iran and the more immediatedanger of a vicious backlash, most of the region's regimes would opt for appeasement".

The Economist 18 Feb 06"Older Workers: How To Manage an Ageing Workforce"(Edit.11); Special Report: The Ageing Workforce: Turning Boomers Into Boomerangs"(65-7):-Editorial's highlights: "Governments, employers and workers all need to change to keep baby-boomers on the job". Unusually large number of people born soon after WWII now just approaching 'normal'retirement age, and is far from replaceablein national workforces, given the lower birthrates. "Several ways of dealing with falling supply of labour:work might be shifted offshore to take advantage of abundant cheaper workers in poorer countries; laxerimmigration rules might allow in more skilled labour; new equipment could enhance productivity of a better-educated workforce. But one of readiest sources of skilled labour is... older employees [themselves.Some] baby-boomers [want/need] stay in workforce for... money. Many also want to carry on working beyond standard retirement age for mental stimulation... Their productivity may decline...but [now]traditional pattern of retirement... does not make sense for the economy, for companies or for people...Pensions need to be unhooked from final salaries, so workers not heavily penalised if they take pay cuts to stay in employment. [P]ensions should encourage workers to postpone retirement [and] allow part-time workers to continue to contribute even after official retirement age. [Employers] need to be flexible[and] part-time jobs [are] attractive to the old... Older workers [also] need to adapt... Wages [should be simply] based on what they are worth". "The Ageing Brain: Wisdom or Senility"(66):- "Understandinghow the brain ages could help to slow deterioration... Performance in many jobs depends on how muchyou know and how well you know it, both of which increase well into your 60s. Knowledge tends to decline sharply after 65, but that may be consequence of retirement rather than its cause... Muchwisdom about the ageing brain has recently been overturned... Recent work has shown that, given intellectual stimulation, new neurons will grow in adults' brains... What can be done to promote healthy ageing? You can lower your blood pressure, perhaps through physical exercise, and mental workouts -older people with a history of complex mental activity are less likely to suffer mental decline".

The Economist 18 Mar 06"Pakistan: The Other Taliban"(41-2):-official summary: "The government fights to tame Islamist militants in northern Pakistan". Highlights relating to suspicion that Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, along the wild border with Afghanistan's most unstable south-west, may be hiding Osama bin Laden and/or his deputy Alman al-Zawahri: "No one knows how many people have been killed. [Pakistan's] army says 200, mostly 'militants' . The fugitives say many civilians were among them... For first half-century of the country's existence, Pakistan's government paid little attention to thetribal areas... That changed when US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, and thousands of al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters, Pakistanis/Afghans, fled to tribal areas. Then Pakistan sent its army in. Policed by80,000 soldiers and paramilitaries, most of the tribal areas are now under unprecedented central control...In North and South Waziristan, army has encountered fierce resistance from local tribesmen, assisted perhaps by surviving handful of foreign jihadists... In early 2004, fighting in South Waziristan causedseveral hundred deaths on both sides - and failed to deliver the 'high-value'al-Qaeda target that Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president, had promised... Many in Pakistan now wonder whether the government'smilitary campaign is making the tribal areas more radical, not less... Area is seeing a face-off betweenthe army and the clerics. With insurgent violence worsening on both sides of border, the consequences could be grim; Reuters "Leave Pakistan or Die, Musharraf Warns Militants"NYT 23 Mar 06:-"Foreign militants hiding in Pakistan should either leave or face annihilation, President Pervez Musharraf said in strongly worded speech... Pakistan has captured or killed hundreds of al-Qaeda members sinceMusharraf joined US-led war on terrorism after 11 Sep 01 attacks on US. But security forces are still battling remnants of al Qaeda and their sympathizers among tribes on border with Afghanistan, andOsama bin Laden is widely believed to be hiding somewhere in Pakistan along with his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri. 'These foreign terrorists are not only spreading terrorism in Pakistan, but in the rest of theworld', Musharraf told a rally... 'I want to warn them that they should leave Pakistan. Go away or we will finish them off', Musharraf said... Nevertheless, Pakistan's commitment... often comes under critical scrutiny from neighbours and Western governments alike... Over the years, Pakistan became a refuge for Islamist militants not only belonging to al Qaeda and remnants of Taliban militia ousted from Afghanistan, but also from Chechnya and Central Asia. Many settled in the semi-autonomous Pashtun tribal lands straddling the border with Afghanistan. Pakistan army has deployed up to 80,000 troops inthe tribal lands but is still struggling to root out militants"; AP"Pakistani Forces Clash With Militants"NYT24 Mar 06:-"Fighting in North Waziristan came day after President Musharraf ordered foreign militants to leave Pakistan or be 'crushed'. Clashes that reportedly killed scores of pro-Taliban tribesmen earlier [in Mar] heightened concerns that Pakistan was losing its grip on lawless region, possible hiding place for Osama bin Laden... Pakistan... has deployed thousands of troops in its tribal regions near Afghan border in an effort to flush out foreign militants/local supporters. Although tribal elders have claimed no foreigners in their areas, security officials say hundreds, including Arabs/Uzbeks/Chechens/Afghans arehiding in North and South Waziristan".

The Economist 10 Jun 06"Nuclear Disarmament: The Fewer the Better"(Edit.11-2);"Special Report: Nuclear Disarmament: The Long, Long Half-Life"(21-3); "China and US: Out of Their Silos"(38);"Iran and Nuclear Diplomacy: Risky Bargaining"(45-6);"Politics in Iran: Shadows of Uncertainty"(85):-all five relate to seriousness and complexities of existing/threatened nuclear weapons. Last two: on political policies of Iran, world's powerful and perhaps most determined nuclear weapons developing state. Penultimate:analyses Iran's threat to stop its oil exports; last: reviews Ali Gheissari & Vali Nasr Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty(New York: Oxford Univ.06). [The other"developing"nuclear state: Helene Cooper & Michael R.Gordon"North Korea May Test Long-Range Missile"New York Times 17 Jun 06.] Disturbing item on China, one of five officially recognized nuclear powers(others: US, Russia, Britain,France) under Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT), who all promised disarmament, reports China's "nuclear arsenal on verge of a big upgrade... shifting to new types of missiles that harder to detect and can belaunched much more quickly... A longer-range version [that] could be in operation next year... wouldbring all of US within reach". Editorial stresses serious global nuclear weapons situation described in fine Special Report. It argues "making world safer from nukes not a job just for suspected proliferators.Official nuclear powers...need to acknowledge [that] the five promised to work to get rid of their nuclear weapons, as part of a process of general disarmament. [Belief] among many governments that the fiveare not holding up their end of the bargain, exposes them to charges of hypocrisy, adds to NPT's woesand make it harder to encourage the three treaty outsiders - India, Pakistan, Israel - to curb their nucleararsenals...What counts...is that nuclear 'haves' find ways of moving purposely in right direction. [C]uttingnuclear tallies (even to numbers far from zero) is in the interest of all. [T]ighter controls make for safer world, come what may. That means pushing nuclear numbers as low as possible... Meanwhile, US [andChinese] refusal to ratify Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty makes it hard to press India, Pakistan, Indiato do so. Treaty banning production of fissile material for bombs been stuck in UN's Conference on Disarmament...Tighter stewardship of fewer weapons, and technologies/materials that go into them, willnot...usher in nuclear-free world. But to most, would be welcome steps that could help turn recent chain reaction of suspicion/rivalry that is damaging the NPT, into one that could improve the security of all. That is surely the least that the official nuclear powers owe the rest".

The Economist 24 Jun 06"Philanthropy: Give and Make"(Edit.12);"How To Save the World: Bolton v Gore"(38):-both deal - in very different flavors - with the world's vast/quick need for responsible aid from therich/smart. [My own deep feelings are at end of this item.] Editorial makes case that "Admirably, Bill Gatesseems as serious about giving his money away as he was about making it...No matter what inspiration,philanthropy is good for doing all sorts of things governments fail at. Free of vicissitudes of votes/public opinion, philanthropists can take on causes that are unpopular or neglected... So applaud Gate's decisionto make giving away money his day job, and to work at Microsoft part-time... Gates Foundation, whichalready does a fine job, will do even better. He is also setting an example to those, such as his friend, William Buffett,.. who look likely to leave the task to someone else. [See particularly following major articles/essays: Timothy L.O'Brien & Stephanie Saul"Buffett to Give Bulk of His Fortune to Gates Charity"New York Times 26 Jun 06; Donald G.McNeil Jr. & Rick Lyman"Buffett's Billions Will Aid Fight Against Disease"NYT 27 Jun 06; Landon Thomas Jr."A Friendship: A Gift Between Friends"NYT 27 Jun 06; David Leonhardt"How To Give Money as Buffett Does"NYT 28 Jun 06.] Not every donor needs to become a full-time philanthropist - a growing industry of intermediaries can help sort deserving schemes from the rest.What matters is that giver should do more than simply hand over money...Capitalism has demonstrated it is best system for creating great fortunes. More capitalists should show it is best for getting rid of them, too". Bolton/Gore item reports on extraordinary plot by US amb to UN to justify Bush administration'srefusal to implement UN's Kyoto agreement to begin initial global action against the fatal weather crisisby introducing:"A question of priorities: hunger and disease or climate change?" US amb Bolton effectively drew attention of selected UN ambs to the specialized results of "Copenhagen Consensus"(op.cit.) which analysed the relative cost/speed/effectiveness of various forms of international 'crisis' activity. "Given a notional $50b [only, seven UN ambs were asked how to] spend it to make the world better place. [T]hey drew up list of priorities [and] top four were basic health care, better water/sanitation,more schools and better nutrition of children. Averting climate change came last. Ambs thought it wiser to spend [strictly limited funds] on things they knew would work". Result would have upset former US VP and presidential candidate against Bush, Al Gore(op.cit.), who "calls global warming 'onrushing catastrophe'and argues vigorously that curbing it is the most urgent moral challenge facing mankind". [My own views:There are both massive-enough rich-nations' assets, and rapidly-expanding factual/ technical facts, available for the 'rich'to fully address any global or globally-relevant needs, withoutfeeling uninformed constraint or substantially-lowered self-standards. Much more important, the entireplanet is now massively and increasingly inter-dependent. It is also now living in an unprecedented planet-wide situation where basic global knowledge is both wide and expanding/accelerating fast - often via social TV. Hence all human beings, however poor/backward, are often now knowledgeable about thegreater power/riches - and apparent misdeeds - of some others, so many groups can feel hurt/frustrated/ religious against others; and might be able to organize terrorism of some sort against selected people/ facilities anywhere. Any terrorist group is ultimately able to use a vast variety of existing/developable weaponry/poisons in any society on earth. An essential way to reduce this world-wide threat - apart from correcting current complaints asap - can only be to reduce serious/perceived pain/poverty, and obtain -through cooperative intelligence/law among all governments everywhere - advanced information about relevant threats -since all societies may somehow be threatened. But the most defensive and selfishly-beneficial (plus deeply moral) means of easing this situation is for the rich and informed to provide allthe funds/goods/skills necessary to accelerate equity - both obtaining and offering relevant knowledge.]

The Economist 08 Jul 06"North Korea's Missiles: Rocket Man"(Edit.9);"North Korea: Kim Jong Il Goes Ballistic"(36-7):-though drafted before 5-veto-affected United Nations Security Council(UNSC) seriously criticized the missile-showoff/threatener unanimously, the text identifies its Pacific/relevant intentionsand fears. From Editorial: "North...launched Taepodong rocket/half a dozen others...calculated to blasta hole in diplomatic effort... to get Kim Jong Il's regime to give up its nuclear bomb-building. Bigger worry[:]will incinerate wider efforts to stabilise region full of dangerous rivalries...Hermit Kingdom often seems more tragi-comic than threatening. [C]hief dangers regime poses to outsiders often accidental: thatrockets will unintentionally hit Japan or that North's economy will collapse... Yet still grounds for worry[:]latest Taedopong missile, if it can be made to work, might reach parts of North America. Unlikely [Kim]would be able to put a nuclear warhead on such a device[, b]ut no one knows for sure... So what is Kim up to?.. Display partly a rocket-fuelled raspberry at [US]. May...have been...demonstration for [sale of]North Korean missiles. But Kim's biggest target surely the six-way talks[: he] wants to be treated morelike Iran or India [and]