Virginia D. Abernethy, Population Politics: The Choices that Shape Our Future(New York: Insight Books 93):-an influential source, frequently cited for its study of human incentives. It takes now widely-held view that developing an informed motivation to lower fertility rates(e.g. perception of limited resources)must often precede active use of contraceptives. It also makes radical proposal: total US immigration ban.[In fact, current migration from poor to rich countries barely affects demographic pressures or trends, although short-distance, large-scale movements (such as from Bangladesh to Assam)can have local impact.] G. Pascal Zachary, "An Unconventional Academic Sounds Population Alarm" in Wall Street Journal 31 Jul 98, reports that Abernethy opposed most aid to poor countries since, contrary to "demographic transition" theory(that fertility falls as living standards rise), prosperity increases fertility.[Most experts probably feel that while" transition" is much more complex than once thought, perceiving its complete reversal would:(1)confuse some immediate, with major long-term, effects of rising living standards (low OECD fertility);(2)ignore many other factors, e.g. female education; women's choice; cultural imperatives.]

Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.

Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.

Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the Unknown (Toronto: Time Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious: 17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists and academics. Aim is to survey where scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be global and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and implications; "Third World" -relevant technology; genderdifferences; care of global commons and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy forms; ethical computing; "homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at trends and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example ofvaluable collections of what are in fact 21st-Century global issues, put together by good general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions like anniversaries or new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with subjects global in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably offer reading lists.

James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?). One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION

John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule" (Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether - in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While] Millennium African Renaissance Program [made South Africa's president Mbeki call first for]'critical examination of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done differently'" , editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt African regimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA article stresses increased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which received about 1b pounds in bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on peacekeeping. Business item notes although, when South Africa's present rulers still rebels threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with attempts to create new class of black businessmen". Survey's analyses, while concentrating on South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2) apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world country...Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses:(1)Land(Re)Distribution: with apartheid, white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education: takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatens not just South Africans' security but very basis of their society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from 60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, but racial gaps are probably diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination;(6)Employment and Investment: both face major shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution"; "only40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation Commission provided neither, but offered "day in court"; (8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000 whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those staying generally do not suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Coloureds complain they are "not black enough"; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.

Masood Ahmed & Cheryl Gray Helping Countries Combat Corruption: The Role of the World Bank(Washington: IBRD 97):-produced by World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network(PREM). Bank's World Development Report 1997: The State in a Changing World(op.cit.)also deals with global corruption issues in government context but mainly descriptively, while PREM report concentrates on how Bank can help governments address corruption as serious development constraint. Daniel Kaufmann(op.cit.)lists more articles and books on this issue.

Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign AffairsVol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN USG for Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Afghanistan and Iraq. Provides analysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three draw"attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction, authors belie inherent complexities of task...Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/ maintained. Yet none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations". Essay is worth reading - as a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach all media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.

Fouad Ajami"The Ways of Syria: Statis in Damascus"(153-158)Foreign AffairsVol.88/No.3 (May/Jun 09):-Review Essay of Itamar Ravinovich: The View From Damascus: State, Political Community, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria(Vallentine Mitchell 08, 365pp. $49.95). Official summary:"As Washington [and Israel?] consider[s] a rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad's Syria, Itamar Ravinovich's commanding new book makes clear that change will not come quickly or easily - and, if the past is any indication, it may not come at all". Selected emphatic extract:"A big... book of history and diplomacy by the Israeli scholar takes readers deep into the world of the Syrian state - and into that mix of pride and injury that has shaped its modern history. [He] tracks the twists and turns of Syria's political journey in recent decades, its transformation from the plaything of outside powers into a player of consequence in the Levant. No other writer has dug as deep into such material as [author] has in this book, a distillation of a lifetime of concern with the ways of Syria". Ajami: Professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ School of Advanced International Studies and Adjunct Research Fellow at Hoover Institution.

Martin Albrow, The Global Age: State and Society Beyond Modernity(Stanford: Stanford Univ. Press 97):-largely theoretical look at globalization, but offering many practical insights about global institutions. Basic thesis: while political, social, economic and technical elements of modernity and nation-state continue, entering new era where globality, i.e. global viewpoint, will gradually replace them. UN system, being representative of states, need not be world state, but will become increasingly system reflecting views and debating values of humanity(119-144).

John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/religious bodies/ groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning".

Graham Allison Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):- extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structures and access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower is inevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; global alliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weapons states; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements; global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.

Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put these threats at the top of his national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries". Emphasized extracts:"Over the past eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons". "Obama's mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School of Government. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation. Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson "The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, but many political and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From first paragraph:"Over the past three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear agenda includes renewing formal arms control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear nonproliferation regime, and redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made this goal a priority for his administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he was Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.

Philip G.Altbach & Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign Policy No.144(Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be influenced by "worldly" visions. Despite newglobal concerns with terrorism" there is no holding back the flow of students seeking education beyondtheir borders"; Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase to 8m by 2025". Regarding content, "literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/management, engineering, mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asiancountries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled through distance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leading receiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000), Britain(223,000), France(135,000), Germany(185,000),US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own study/living expenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintain strong ties from abroad, someeventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies byproviding expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remainsproblem for many poorer societies" . It may then be related to expenses that "increasing number[of potential foreign student payers is]looking for new options in developing world" ;emergence of mega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of'brain trade'forever.

Lawrence K.Altman "Study Finds Drop in H.I.V. Cases in South India"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"Prevalence of new HIV infections has fallen significantly in southern India, region of that country where the disease hasoccurred most often, scientists reported. Many health officials have predicted major increases in HIV in India, which has world's second highest number of infected people, after South Africa. But new infections among young aduts declined by more than a third from 2000 through 2004, according to astatistical study. [Article contains selected statistics from study and varied information about sources.]Authors attributed favorable trend to an increasing use of condoms by men and an insistence by prostitutes that their partners use them. That decline, in turn, reduced transmission of HIV to spouses.Experts cautioned against drawing too firm a conclusion from one study and added that the new findingsdid not mean India's HIV epidemic was over. Still, the study has two key implications, researchers said.One is that strategies that emphasize education about how HIV can be transmitted and the use of condoms offer the best hope for reducing the spread of the virus in India. Second is that routine monitoring of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases are powerful and cost-effective ways to control AIDS in India. But experts urged constant vigilance for signs of a reversal of the favorable trend...Reductions were more modest in 14 northern states, where prevalence of HIV infections is about one-fifth that in the four southern states".

Lawrence K.Altman "Chimp Virus Is Linked to H.I.V." New York Times 26 May 06:- "By studying chimpanzee droppings in remote African jungles, scientists reported [25 May] they have found direct evidence of amissing link between a chimpanzee virus and the one that causes human AIDS. Scientists have long suspected that chimpanzees are the source of the human AIDS pandemic because at least one subspecies carries a simian immune deficiency virus closely related to HIV, the virus that causes AIDS... The genetic and immunologic tests were developed in stages over the past seven years to help tracethe evolution of HIV and solve the mysterious origins of AIDS. [S]tudy combined genetics and epidemiology... Team's findings show 'for the first time a clear picture of the origin of HIV-1 and theseeds of the AIDS pandemic'. HIV-1 is the virus that causes the vast majority of AIDS cases in the world... Studies estimate that the human AIDS virus jumped species 50 to 75 years ago. But no one knowswho the first infected person was or how that person acquired HIV. The earliest HIV infection wasdocumented in 1959 in an unidentified man in Kinshasa[, Congo]. Team theorized that HIV was first transmitted locally somewhere in west-central Africa. Because the subspecies of chimpanzees... livesin the wild in Cameroon, Gabon and Congo Republic, the first infection could have been in any of those areas... The communities with a high prevalence of infected chimpanees were located south of theSangha River, which flows into the Congo river and on to Kinshasa. That led... to the theory that someinfected person carried HIV from a remote area to Kinshasa, where it was then passed on. It is not known whether chimpanzees infected with SIVcpz become ill... More collections were needed in other vast areas of Africa to provide a clearer picture of the evolution of AIDS and to determine if there wereother viruses that could cause epidemics like AIDS" .

Lawrence K.Altman "Report Shows AIDS Epidemic Slowdown in 2005"New York Times 30 May 06:- "Newsurveys suggest that global AIDS epidemic has begun to slow, with decline in new HIV infections in about 10 countries, leader of UNAID program said. Outside of those countries,.. number of new AIDS infections continues to rise or hover at its current pace. Meanwhile, public health efforts are reaching only a small proportion of people at risk, Dr.Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS, said at news conference in UN NYC ...India has 5.7m infected people and South Africa 5.5m, but India's population far greater. Showing no sign of decline, South Africa has a prevalence rate of about 19% of 47m people.In India, rate is less than 1% of its population of 1.1b. Progress against AIDS in some regions represents dividends from a surge in financing since 2001, when UN pledged its commitment to stem epidemic by 2010. Declaration called for countries to report regularly on their responses to AIDS. This week, UNGAwill receive the progress that 126 countries have said they have made. Report(op.cit.), most comprehensive survey ever compiled from country data, pointed to the 2001 UN meeting as a turning point for AIDS financing. In 2005,.. world spent $8.3b on AIDS, compared with $1.6b in 2001. 'We areseeing the impact', Piot said. He cited increased condom use, a rise in postponement of sexual intercourse and a decrease in number of sex partners as factors in slowing of epidemic. Summarizing report's findings, Piot said '2005 was least bad year in the history of the AIDS epidemic'... Despite thepositive trends, Piot reported grim findings from China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Russia andVietnam(op.cit.), with signs of outbreaks in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Ending the pandemic will depend largely on changing social norms like empowering women, reducing stigma of the disease andencouraging a greater reduction in the number of sex partners, report said. Most countries have strong foundations for building an effective response against AIDS, report said, but systems to carry out plansremain inconsistent. Thoroughness of the individual national reports varied, and many countries did not provide data for all categories... Still, replies identified significant weaknesses, he said. Fewer than 50%of young people achieved comprehensive knowledge levels about HIV, far fewer than the 90% goal. Only9% of gay men and fewer than 20% of intravenous drug users received any kind of HIV prevention help in 2005. Services to prevent HIV infections in infants have not scaled up as rapidly as programs to provide antiretroviral therapy. Just 9% of pregnant women were covered... Report shows that epicenterof the epidemic remains in sub-Saharan Africa. There epidemic has reached peak, but incidence remains unacceptably high, Piot said. Across most of Africa, HIV prevalence among pregnant women attendingclinics has remained roughly level for several years. UN disputed contentions by some observers thatthe leveling off showed a turning point in the AIDS epidemic in Africa... Piot said, 'actual number of people infected continues to rise because of population growth'" Lawrence K.Altman "U.N. Urges Tripling of Funds by '08 to Halt AIDS" NYT 01 Jun 06:- "Stopping epidemic of AIDS will require $22b/year by 2008and possibly more in following years, officials of UNAIDS program said. The $22b is nearly triple the$8.3b spent 05 by all sources, including governments and private sector. Urging that countries spend more, UNSG Kofi Annan said a costlier and more sustained effort needed because AIDS 'has spread further, faster and with more catastrophic long-term effects than any other disease'... Of projected figure,half is needed for prevention and a quarter for treatment and care of infected people. Remainder is for care of orphans, children at risk of becoming infected and program costs. UNSG and Piot of UNAIDS spoke as UNGA began meeting aimed at renewing political commitment and setting new goals for expenditures and for measuring progress... Annan urged delegates to challenge countries trying to avoid goals that mention gay people, prostitutes, intravenous-drug users and others at high risk of becoming infected. 'Governments concerned need to be realistic and responsible', UNSG said. He also said that 'if we are here to try to end the epidemic, we will not succeed by putting our head in the sandand pretending that these people do not exist or they do not need help'... Report cards showed that most countries missed more goals than they met. More than 20m have become infected since 2001 meeting.Now countries must fundamentally change the way they think and deal with epidemic, moving from crisis management to 'sustained attention and the kind of "anything it takes" resolve that member states apply to preventing global financial meltdowns or wars' , Piot said... Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS released a study showing that private companies have become more likely to provide treatment for employees as cost of antiretroviral drugs has fallen over last six years, to $140-$300/year,from $10,000. In African countries with a high prevalence, more than 70% of companies surveyed arefully subsidizing access to HIV treatment, coalition said. Study...found increasing trend to expand such treatment to employees' dependents. Companies also offering access to voluntary testing/counseling" ; Lawrence K.Altman & Elisabeth Rosenthal "U.N. Strengthens Call for a Global Battle Against AIDS" NYT 02 Jun 06:- "[UNGA] adopted strongly worded declaration [02 Jun] aimed at pressing nations of the worldto strengthen their battle against AIDS, global pandemic [UNSG] called 'greatest challenge of our generation'. Language of document surprised even anti-AIDS groups, which said that while it did not satisfy all their objectives, they had feared it would be watered down... Nonbinding declaration reaffirms commitments made in 01, when UN defined AIDS as far more than a medical issue, framing it in terms of political/human rights/ economic survival... New document is political blueprint, not plan of action.Calls for strong commitment to bolster the rights of women/girls so they can protect themselves from infection with HIV... Declaration calls on countries to: use scientifically documented prevention strategies, including condoms;make clean needles accessible to drug users; take steps to provide universal access to prevention programs/ care/antiretroviral drugs. Includes politically charged terms like 'condoms' /'vulnerable groups' , though those groups not specified... Countries expected to measuretheir progress over next 5 years against targets to be determined by UN... Said world will need to spend up to $23b/year by 2010... Earlier in day, UNSG Annan delivered a gloomy assessment, saying world waslosing the battle. 'The epidemic continues to outpace us', he told packed UNGA. 'There are more new infections than ever before; more deaths than ever before; more women/girls infected than ever before'... [US' s] Mrs.Bush speech steered away from many of the criticisms that have been labled against administration, notably that it promotes sexual abstinence over scientifically proven strategies,particularly condom use. Indeed, she said, 'ABC'model - initials stand for abstain, be faithful and use condoms - had brought sharp declines in infections in Africa. Britain's international development [minister] said in interview: abstinence alone did not work ...Dr. Peter Piot [UNAIDS] said: while nodocument could make anyone '100% happy', final version was 'a major advance'and far stronger than weaker drafts circulating earlier in week" .

Roger C.Altman "The Great Crash, 2008: A Geopolitical Setback for the West"(2-14) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"The economic collapse of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the West. It has stripped Wshdc and European governments of the resources and credibility they need to maintain their roles in global affairs. These weaknesses will eventually be repaired, but in the meantime they will accelerate trends that are shifting the world's center of gravity away from the US". Emphasized extracts:"The crisis' underlying cause was the combination of very low interest rates and unprecedented levels of liquidity". "US deficit for the fiscal year that began in Oct 08 will approach $1 trillion - or 7.5% of US GDP". Altman is Chair/CEO of Evercore Partners. Was US Deputy Treasury Secretary 93-4.

Sudhir Anand & Amartya K.Sen Sustainable Human Development: Concepts and Priorities(New York: UNDP/ODS 96):-tries to provide rationale for bringing together narrowly environmental viewof "sustainable" world and case for eliminating "inequities" in living conditions. Argument for "human development" (pushed by UNDP/World Bank/this bibliography)made well, but its role in population controland easing pressure on the planet's carrying capacity mentioned only weakly and indirectly. Generaleconomic development( "overall opulence" )criticized as "partisan" for failing "to take note of need for impartiality in allocating entitlements" i.e.collective statistics hide unacceptable inequities. Imbalanced - or at least imperfect - defence of key imperatives.

Chris Anderson, "The Young(stressing Youth and Age)" The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explorescauses/ elements/global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing down of traditional...order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace ofchange(technological/social)favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/ replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile) skills; risk futures; prefer opportunity to wealth/ security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth's growing role/impact in decision-making. ["W]ell- prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge]Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow; increasingly they are leaders of today" .

Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" .

Kofi A. Annan, "UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world" .[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]

Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).

Kofi A. Annan, Report of the [UN] Secretary-General to the Preparatory Committee for the High-level International Intergovernmental Event on Financing for Development:-this collaborative effort(officially UNGA Document A/AC.257/12)runs to 64 pages, makes 87 recommendations, and was commissioned bythe Millennium Summit to help focus discussion at a Mar 2002 global meeting on development financing(still an" event" since it awaits an official title). Involved directly in the report's preparation were: many parts of the UN proper(particularly DESA, UNCTAD and UNDP); UN Agencies; the Bank, Fund and WTO; theregional development banks; OECD; the Financial Stability Forum; many governments/otherstakeholders(arranged by the UN regional commissions); the business community; and civil society organizations. Hence it reflects extremely varied, expert and authoritative views - significant, since some proposals are quite radical, even if presented solely on the responsibility of the UN Secretariat. The report consists of an Introduction and six chapters, the latter perhaps being the agenda items of the "event" : I. Mobilizing domestic financial resources for development; II. Mobilizing international resources for development: foreign direct investment and other private flows; III. Trade; IV. Increasing international financial cooperation for development through, inter alia, official development assistance; V. Debt; VI. Addressing systemic issues: enhancing coherence and consistency of the international monetary, financial and trading systems in support of development. For highlights, see UN Press Release DEV/2275at: http://www.un.org/News/Press /docs/2001/ dev2275.htm. The complete text(which explains all acronyms!)can also be downloaded from the Web: http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.htm orhttp://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.pdf. For three articles about the Report(highlighting the dirty bits)see: Christopher S. Wren, "U.N. Report Proposes Steps to Fight Global Poverty" in New York Times 30 Jan 01;Reuters, "Annan Offers Poor Nations 87 Ways to Lure Funds" NYT 30 Jan; Wren, "The U.N. Offers 87 Remedies to Help Poor Nations Develop" NYT 04 Feb. The UNSG's opening speech at the subsequentPrepcom meeting is reported in: Reuters "Annan: Poor Nations Must Set Development Priorities" NYT 12 Feb. It describes his theme as: LDCs "should play a greater role in setting policy and priorities in thefinancing of global development" and cease to be "decided in clubs where only rich countries have real influence" . This issue is of course a perennial one at the UN, where the contribution-weighted voting in Bretton Woods bodies is seen as "grossly unfair" and "neo-colonialist" by aid recipients, whose very survival may be at stake, but "absolutely essential" by the investment-oriented donors, who feel" shareholders" have natural rights to determine where and how their own money is spent. Annan aims to increase the relative role of" one-country-one-vote" UN fora(UNGA; ECOSOC)in making broad global development policies and priorities. He also is very concerned to make foreign investment in LDCs larger and less volatile as ODA continues its decline. Advising him is a high-level panel(Zedillo, Rubin, Delors...).

Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit disease treatment/ local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale natural epidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New is range/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members). Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/ non- combatants, with purpose of intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichmentand urged to voluntary time- limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitorcompliance with Non- Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiationsince 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hastenefforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/ reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/ justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/ peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to givestrategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection- responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/ other comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised (1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole;not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/ better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/ mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, edit., In Athena's Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age(Santa Monica: RAND, 1997):-while addressed to US concerns, issues raised are global. Included are: thenew world epoch of conflict will revolve around knowledge; the information revolution, being both organizational and technological, empowers small, non-state, networked actors vis-a-vis hierarchies(i.e. states); threats are diffused, nonlinear and complex; conflict tends militarily towards "cyberwar" , sociallyto diverse but comprehensive "netwar" ; new trends are found in: state, business, and NGO roles,information warfare, global crime and terrorist capacity. Information on balance promotes peace. All these developments affect the UN role in maintaining peace and security.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press, "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" in New York Times 12 Jan 00:- article deals with a real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal. Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross the earth's orbit. This number produces about a 1% chance of one hitting the earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material believed left over from the formation of the solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of a mile to six miles, they are big enough to "wreak global disaster" . NASA has just lowered the estimated numberof such killers to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within the next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able to destroy cities. Britain has just set up a risk assessment committee. AP, "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" in NYT 18 Sep 00:-the committee mentioned above is reported to have urged the British government to seek international partners to fund a powerful new telescopeto be stationed in the southern hemisphere and governments should launch joint studies to assess how to destroy an object on a collision course with the planet. The committee estimated that a "wide object" crashes into our planet every 10,000 years with the force of a 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a little[money]into making certain we know if there is a danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet" .

Associated Press," Researchers Produce a Healthier Rice" in New York Times 14 Jan 00: -item reports that " scientists have genetically engineered a type of rice that could end vitamin A deficiency in the developing world" . About 14m children worldwide are deficient; so besides reducing widespread blindness, raising vitamin A levels could prevent 1-2m deaths a year. Swiss researchers successfully spliced three genes into rice to make it rich in beta carotene, a source of vitamin A. While tests are ensuring the original nutritional value is maintained, the famous International Rice Research Institute(IRRI) is working tobreed the trait into popular rice varieties. New developments are reported in David Barboza, "AstraZeneca to Sell a Genetically Engineered Strain of Rice" NYT 16 May(Note to Anthony DePalma," Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets..." ).

Associated Press "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"New York Times 16 Nov 05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader, and terrorism is flaring upall over the region. But at US' s major Asian outposts, some serious downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its32,500-strong force in Korea over next 3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand overmajor elements of troops' mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000US troops are stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa... Ananalyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea in line with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops. Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing... Under new accord... Japan will defend itself, deal with such threats as ballistic missilesand commando attacks and invasion of its own islands. US will deploy latest missile defense radar".

Associated Press"Ugandans Report Mixed Messages on AIDS Plan"New York Times 18 Mar 06:-"Question of why Ugandans didn't use a condom is at the heart of a dispute between some health activists and US government. Activists, as well as some Ugandan officials, accuse US of blunting the condom message in favor of abstinence, while the Americans say they are victims of misinformation and have actually increased nearly tenfold the number of condoms they supply to this African nation of 26 million...Billboards urging condom use have disappeared from the capital, Kampala. In their place are posters, some funded by US government, urging youth to delay sex until marriage... HIV prevalence crept up to 7.1% in 2004-5, after stagnating at around 6% preceding three years, according to government figures";

Associated Press"AIDS Said Orphaned 1.5M Asia - Pacific Kids"New York Times 22 Mar 06:-"AIDS hasorphaned an estimated 1.5m children in Asia-Pacific region, but they are often overlooked in the mix of other issues surrounding a disease that has historically focused on adults, officials told a regional conference... About 121,000 children in the region have been infected by the disease, according to UNAIDS figures from 2004. Another 35,000 also need anti-retroviral drug treatment to survive. Three-day meeting has drawn some 250 delegates from UN agencies, governments and NGOs to Hanoi to discusswhat can be done to limit spread of the disease among youth and how to help children already infected or orphaned by it... UNICEF regional director... said there needs to be increased prevention efforts targeting youth, more focus on prevention of mother to child transmission, provision of drugs to children suffering from the disease, and creation of support groups for kids infected with the virus or orphaned by it... A Save the Children survey... found that many children cannot go to school becausesomeone in their family is sick with the disease, they are commonly ridiculed and ostracized by society and are sometimes forced to work as slaves or sex workers after becoming orphans"; AP"Group Warns of More Child AIDS Deaths"NYT 24 Mar 06:-"Number of children orphaned by AIDS in East Asia-Pacificregion could grow from 450,000 to 1.7m in less than a decade if resources aren't increased for prevention and treatment, UNICEF official said... Also said number of child deaths could reach nearly 20,000 a year during that time if more isn't done... It would take up to $5.5b annually until 2015 to lessen effects of HIV/AIDS on children in the region, in increasing to an estimated $6b a year after that, he said... [UNICEF epidemiologist also said] there are an estimated 450,000 children in the region who have lost one or both parents to the disease, and that could grow to 1.7m by 2015 without more funding... A documentreleased at end of conference called for reducing the stigma and discrimination associated with HIV,boosting steps to prevent mother-to-child transmission, and enhansing care and protection for children. Other provisions included more pediatric HIV testing and greater access to anti-retroviral drugs for children.HIV/AIDS epidemic is growing faster in East Asia than anywhere else in the world. In many countriesepidemic still largely concentrated in high-risk groups.

 Associated Press"AIDS Conference Ends With Appeals"New York Times 26 Apr 06:-"International AIDS conference [in Cape Town, of 1,000 scientists/researchers,] ended [26 Apr] with impassioned appeals to political/pharmaceutical industry leaders to fund development of a virus-killing [vaginal] gel to protect women from the disease and so save millions of lives. Peter Piot, head of UNAIDS,.. said safe/effective microbicides could be ready in 5-7 years, with only minimal additional funding, and thus turn the dream of saving millions of lives into reality... In the hard hit African countries, women account for nearly 60% of infections. Most are infected through heterosexual intercourse... UNAIDS/WHO have long promotedmicrobicides as a potentially valuable weapon in fight against the epidemic, not least because it allows women to protect themselves without having to rely on partners who refuse to wear a condom or befaithful. Yet despite this, research has proceeded slowly. [Piot] said investment in microbicide development should be doubled - and even then would still only reach about US$150m per year...Microbicides can take the form of a gel, cream, sponge or ring that releases an ingredient that can kill or deactivate HIV during intercourse. There are currently five different products being tested[, mainly in Africa on thousand of women]. Dozens of agents that could interrupt HIV transmission have so far beenidentified. There are also hopes that the microbicides could be used to prevent other sexually transmitteddiseases and unwanted pregnancies. One of the products, cellulose sulphate, has the potential to bea contraceptive and shield against HIV... Another microbicide, Carragard, coats vaginal cells and preventsthe virus from entering...Much of funding for research comes from Gates Foundation and US government... Trying to dismiss fears that microbicides would mainly be used in developing countries and therefore offer only low profit margins, [WHO] cited their potential for use in contraception in wealthy countries".

Associated Press "U.S. Says Missile - Defense System Limited" New York Times 22 Jun 06:- "US said [22 Jun] missile-defense system under development has 'limited operational capability'to protect against weapons such as the long-range missile North Korea is said to be near firing. National Security AdviserStephen Hadley underscored US calls for North Korea to abandon any plans for testing the missile believed capable of reaching US soil. 'We're watching it very carefully and preparations are very far along', Hadley said... In Washington, a top Pentagon official said that a missile launch would be 'aprovocation and a dangerous action'that would lead US to impose 'some cost'on North Korea. [Tough UNSC resolution was later passed after a short flight by Taepodong-2 missile.] Hadley, who briefed reporters while traveling with President Bush in Europe[to G8 summit],.. spurned a suggestion by former Defense Secretary William Perry that US launch a pre-emptive strike against the North Korean missile...US has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on missile defense systems during the past few decades.'We have a missile defense system... what we call a long-range missile defense system that is basicallya research, development, training, test kind of system', Hadley said. 'It does... have some limited operational capability. [P]urpose, of course, of a missile defense system is to defend... the territory of US from attack'" . AP "U.S. Military Intercepts Missile in Test" "A Navy ship on [22 Jun] intercepted amedium-range missile warhead above the earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in the latest test of the US missile defense program, the military said. Missile Defense Agency said test had been scheduled for months and was not prompted by indications that North Korea was planning to test launch a long-range missile. USS Shiloh detected a medium-range missile after it was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, then fired a Standard Missile-3 interceptor. Interceptor shot down the target warhead after it separated from its rocket booster, more than 100 miles above the Pacific Ocean and 250 miles northwest of Kauai, the agency said in a statement. The test marked the seventh time in eight attempts the military has successfully shot down a missile target with an interceptor fired from a ship.It also was the second successful attempt by a ship to shoot down a separating target. Medium- andlong-range ballistic missiles typically have at least two stages, increasing the challenge for interceptors,which must distinguish between the body of the missile and the warhead... Japan agreed to jointly develop missile defense technology with US late last year, broadening an earlier bilateral research pact" .

Associated Press "Rumsfeld Cautions on Missile Shield" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "[US] Defense Secretary Donald H.Rumsfeld sounded a note of caution about expectations that interceptors poised in underground silos [in Fort Greely, Alaska] would work in the event of a missile attack by North Korea...Ten silos house single 54-foot-long missile interceptors. If ordered by [US] president,.. one or more ofthe rockets would blast into the sky and race at more than 18,000 mph to launch a small 'kill vehicle'atan enemy warhead as it soared through space. An 11th interceptor is to be installed. [Asked whether ready for use against a North Korean missile,] Rumsfeld said he would not be fully persuaded until themultibillion dollar defense system has undergone more complete and realistic testing. [He said] some elements of the missile defense system are yet to come on line, including some of the radars and other sensors used to track the target missile,.. but stressed that advisors... have told him they believe it will work as designed in the event of an actual missile attack. [On 31 Aug] an interceptor based at a second site [in California] is scheduled to be tested against a target missile launched into the Pacific from Alaska's Kodiak Island. That will be the first full-up test of the latest version of the interceptor and its 'kill vehicle', a device attached to the nose of the interceptor. [T]he 'kill vehicle'is designed to use its own propulsion system and optical sensors to lock onto its target and, by ramming into it at high speed,obliterate the warhead and any payload it might carry. [This] test also will be first use of an early-warning radar... to provide the data required to put the interceptor on a proper path toward its target... A furthertest, now scheduled for Dec, will try for an intercept. At a news conference, Rumsfeld said that North Korea's leaders showed, by their test-launch of multiple missiles on 04 Jul 06, a determination to'continue to improve their capability and to threaten and attempt to blackmail other people'. He said theyalso are a threat to spread missile technology to terrorists. 'I think the real threat that North Korea poses in the immediate future is more one of proliferation than a danger to South Korea', he said... Rumsfeld said US intelligence about the intentions of North Korean leaders is not very good, but he said it is clearthat the overall condition of the North Korean military has deteriorated" ; David S.Cloud "Rumsfeld Sees Some Progress in Missile Plan" New York Times 27 Aug 06:- "Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said [in Fort Greely, Alaska] that while the fledging US ballistic missile defense system was becoming more capable,he wanted to see a successful full-scale test before declaring it able to shoot down a ballistic missile...Bush administration has taken the unusual step of deploying the system which is designed to shoot down a limited number of missiles before testing is completed and before all radars and sensors necessary to track incoming missiles are in place. Rumsfeld [said] system was aimed at protecting against attacks from North Korea and Iran, which he called 'rogue states that are intent on developing long-range ballistic missiles' ... The goal this week is to see if sensors in the so-called kill vehicle can recognize an incoming warhead, not to actually hit it... But... it employed a target that in its size andspeed was representative of missiles that might be fired at US. In last two flight tests, the system haltedthe firing sequence before the interceptor missile left its silo... Even so, after the second failed test in Feb 05, the system was taken down until Dec 06. [A]s many as 40 are supposed to be installed by next year. The other interceptor site is... in California, where two interceptors are in silos... Bushadministration is also looking at locations for an interceptor site in Europe that would protect US and parts of Europe from missiles launched from Mideast. [C]ould be in place in four years if Congressprovides the money... Sergei Ivanov, defense minister of Russia, [also in Alaska] did not directly criticize US system, but called for 'transparency'by Bush administration, a term meant to convey Russia's concern about any modifications to the system that could take its capabilities beyond stopping a small number of missiles" .

Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain theseparatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China'policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said".

Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3(May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):- former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Barbara Beck "The Economics of Ageing: The Luxury of Longer Life" The Economist 27 Jan 96(Survey 1-16):-longer average lifespans worldwide are raising global, and not simply national, problems in fields like economics and finance, travel and migration, medicine and health care, social and cultural change, and even moral standards.

Barbara Beck, "A Survey of Women and Work: For Better, For Worse" in The Economist 18 Jul 98(1-16):-an excellent economic and social examination of the formal employment of women, including a human-rights-related analysis of why so few are found in the top levels of business. Most information is on OECDcountries - which have the best statistics and seem to lead a global trend. Subjects include: history, e.g. the combined impact of safe contraception and the transformation of labor needs; OECD employment trendsand their reasons; gender variation by job type, pay and unemployment; maternity and paternity leave,daycare, shared child care and housework, career-breaks, taxation and birthrate issues. All are UN issuesnow; its actively trying to improve its own employee gender balance.

J. Marshall Beier and Steven Mataija edit., Cyberspace and Outer Space: Transitional Challenges for Multilateral Verification in the 21st Century (Toronto: Centre for International and Security Studies, York Univ. 97):-based on papers commissioned for/presented at 14th Annual Ottawa NACD Verification Symposium, sponsored by Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. Titles of 21 Papers/Chapters as follows: Keynote Address: Meeting the Multilateral Proliferation Challenge Through United Nations Actions(Gustavo Zlauvinen); (1)Where Are We Now; Where Are We Going in Arms Control?(Jonathan Dean);(2)The 1997 Multilateral Arms Control Agenda and ACDA Priorities(Thomas Graham, Jr.);(3)The Interface Between Treaties and Regimes: Challenges for Evaluation, Verification, and Implementation (Patricia Bliss McFate);(4)Significant Multilateral NACD Agreements: The Scope and Challenge of Implementation(Richard Guthrie);(5)Multilateral Control Regimes: Diverse Purposes and Congruent Processes(Gordon K.Vachon);(6)Non-Weaponisation of Space:An International Imperative(F.R.(Ron)Cleminson);(7)Proliferation Challenges of Cyberspace(David Mussington); (8)Information Revolution, Military and Arms Control(Jeffrey R.Cooper; Christopher Burton); (9)Virtual Security: Technical Oversight, Simulated Foresight, and Political Blindspots in Infosphere(James Der Derian);(10)Arms Control and Future of International Security(Brad Roberts);(11)Verification: An Active Role for UN(Alan Crawford);(12)Aerial Surveillance in Sinai Field Mission, Multinational Force and Observers, and UN Special Commission on Iraq: Issues and Commonalities(Rene Unger);(13)Spaceborne Imagery: A Universal, Effective, and Cost-Efficient Tool for Ongoing Monitoring and Verification(Phillip J.Baines);(14)Summary of Results from 1996 Workshop on Use of Satellite Overhead Imagery in Verification(Peter Stibrany);(15) "93+2"(IAEA)Critique(Jason Cameron);(16)Light Weapons: New Focus for Arms Control and Disarmament(David DeClerq);(17)Russian Crisis and Prospects for Arms Control(Sergei Plekanov);(18)Future Challenges for Multilateral Arms Control: A Case Study on Korea(George Lindsay; Jim Bayer);(19)The Multilateral Dimension of'Korean Problem'(George Lindsay);(20)Symposium Summary(Jacqueline Simon).Editorial Foreword offers brief outlines.

Daniel Bell, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (New York: Basic Books Inc., 1976).-this book is the origin of now-famous term, here used to describe the enormous social trends transforming the West, rather than the economic revolution that most assume is causing them. The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism (New York: Basic Books Inc., 1976) "stands in dialectical relation to [the above, in which Bell] sought to show how technology...[was]reshaping the techno-economic order ...In these essays, I deal with culture, especially the idea of modernity, and with the problems of managing a complex polity when the values of the society stress unrestrained appetite" (p.xi). Since these books were written, Bell's social trends have of course accelerated and spread, resulting(?)in an economics-driven globalization. The" selfish society" has waxed and waned, but materialism seems to be dominant almost everywhere. Was Bell describing mutual reinforcement?

Christopher de Bellaigue "THINK AGAIN: IRAN" Foreign Policy No.148 (May/Jun 05) (18-24):-like other FPissues, correction of nine public concepts; here: about Iranian nuclear weapons production/use or its positive response to stiff US pressure. Author first outlines widely-held views( "Under-lined Statements" ); states FIRM REACTIONS; and then provides his view of actual truth. He first provides summary: "Tehran's desire for nuclear bomb has put it in Washington's cross hairs. But neither President George W.Bush'srepeated condemnations of Iran's clerical rulers, nor the threat of military force will advance cause ofdemocracy there. When Iran reforms, it will happen because its youth - not the United States - demands it." "If Iran Gets a Nuclear Bomb, Iran Will Use It"-VERY UNLIKELY. "Iran almost certainly does not intendto brandish a nuclear bomb in an attempt to intimidate...Israel/US... Further, clerics have blessed a partial detente with their Arab neighbours and...EU.[Yet] there is plausible circumstantial evidence ...to suggestthat Iran's nuclear program is not civilian. [N]uclear ambiguity is calculated, a reaction to the vulnerability it feels. Iran probably intends to gather all the elements necessary for bomb making, so that it can gonuclear the moment that it feels an attack is imminent." "Iran Has No Use for Nuclear Power"-False."Energy needs are rising faster than [Iran's oil/gas] ability to meet them... Its capacity must nearly triple over 15 years to meet projected demand[,and the electricity cannot all come] from the oil sector. [Output] has stagnated at around 3.7mbd since late 1990s. Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally [and the natural] gas reserves are only just being tapped. It makes sense for Iran to free up its hydrocarbons for export [and] Iran contends that US may pressure foreign sellers into stopping the flow. [Hence] Iran'sdesire for a complete fuel cycle is most suspicious aspect of nuclear program"."The Iranian People Support Their Leaders' Nuclear Program"-NOT REALLY. "Iranians who vocally support...nuclearambitions...minority[;] never witnessed spontaneous discussion of nuclear program among average Iranians...Unlikely many Iranians willing to put up with economic/diplomatic isolation...if Iran insisted on enriching uranium"."Only the Threat of Force Can Dissuade Iran from Advancing with Its Nuclear Plans"-DOUBTFUL."Threat...could also...encourage Iran to leave NPT and develop a nuclear weapon ASAP...[N]ever abandons goal of achieving a nuclear fuel cycle... Iran is more flexible than it appears...[It might] revise its nuclear plans if US abandoned its [hard policies] ...Ultimately it might refuse to publicly relinquish nuclear goals, preferring instead to extend current negotiations indefinitely"."U.S. Military Action Would Embolden Dissidents to Topple the Islamic Republic"-WRONG. "Workers...keeping their heads down andmouths shut... Iranians don't want Iraq's wretched conditions... Iranians opposed to Islamic Republic lack a unifying ideology... Possible some Iranians would cheer a US invasion, but not for long". "Criticizing the Islamic Republic Helps Dissidents Inside Iran"-NO. "Bush's repeated statements of support for Iranian people do not help normal Iranians... Publicly defending beleaguered reformists simply allowed clerics to accuse reformers of being US lackeys...US criticism has perverse effect because US has no diplomatic or economic relations with Iran, and hence no leverage. EU and others [have] some modest leverage with Iran's clerical rulers". "If Iraq Becomes a Democracy, so Will Iran"-WISHFUL THINKING. "Border is about all they share...Few Iranians...question Iran's integrity within its current borders. Same is not true in Iraq...Iran set up a semi-democratic, anti-Western, Shia theocracy... Clerics today enjoy considerable prestige"."Iran Cannot Be Reformed from Within"-WRONG AGAIN. "Iran can and will be reformed from within.Demographics make that course inevitable. Some 70% of Iran's 70m citizens under age of 30, and young Iranians are more reform-minded than older groups... Young people resent existing political restrictions more than their elders, and are less religiously observant... Spread of material values and sexual freedom is palpable, as is desire for smaller families...Young people display little animus for once-hated US...[Yet]reform-minded millions lack common ideology/leadership... New generation will... spur further reform. Process would benefit from critical dialogue with US, rather than current, glowering standoff".

Pam Belluck "Will Longer Lives Be Different Lives? And Better Ones?" New York Times 01 Jan 00:-the biological, economic and ethical impacts of the probable major extension of human lifespans are often discussed; this addresses its social and personal impact. Since "genetic and medical steps needed to extend life [may halt] much of deterioration that comes with aging", life may include feeling like 60 at 110, attending college at 35 (five MAs [may be] needed), women bearing children in 50s, having six entirely separate careers and four marriages, physical sports at 112, vastly more life experiences (10-year holidays). With current progress on aging/terminal disease, many now born may live in 3 centuries. Parent/child may age far apart/"simultaneously". Marriage could last 80 years, or socially transform, with people raising several families. Energy-creativity-initiative "stimulated", but uneven access-adjustment must be minimized.

James R. Beniger, The Control Revolution: Technological and Economic Origins of the Information Society (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1986). - this book is neither technical nor theoretical in the usual sense. Its aim is to explain how and why current society, with its focus on knowledge exploitation, came about. The author credits what he call the Control Revolution, "a complex of rapid changes in the technological and economic arrangements by which information is collected, stored, processed and communicated, and through which formal or programmed decisions might effect societal control." (p.vi). The Third World must also, and yet, master this revolution.

C.Fred Bergsten"Foreign Economic Policy for the Next President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.2 (Mar/Apr 04):-this is identified as the first in a series of commissioned essays on foreign policy concerns for the next president. After recommending US initiatives to improve a number of trade and related programs, Bergsten concludes:" [F]oreign economic policy could rescue overall US foreign policy. The US' s biggestproblem in the international arena is its tendency to act unilaterally on a range of issues. Such...is demonstrably ineffective and thus thankfully rare in the economic domain. The international economicinitiatives proposed in this essay would convey a new image of US foreign policy while furthering US national interests. They should rank high on the agenda of the next US president.

C.Fred Bergsten "The World Economy: The Risks Ahead for the World Economy" The Economist 11 Sep 04(63-5):-director of Institute for International Economics in Washington DC, author was invited to explain why policymakers - particularly in US and China - must take action now to avert real danger of global economic problems. Essay's introduction makes case clear: "Five major risks threaten world economy. Three centre on US: renewed sharp increases in current-account deficit leading to crash of dollar; budget profilethat is out of control; and outbreak of trade protectionism. Fourth relates to China, which faces possible hard landing from its recent overheating. Fifth is that oil prices could rise to $60-70 per barrel even without major political or terrorist disruption, and much higher with one...If two or three...were to occur incombination then they would radically reverse global outlook." Related action must be taken by number of governments, both to maintain global growth and "avoid deeper oil stocks and new trade restrictions." While there are considerable highlights about US and Chinese financial and trade policies, both subjects are now clearly more and more of world impact and importance. [Hence international cooperation to ensure economic growth is increasingly of global necessity; "nationals" at WTO/IBRD/IMF..meetings must think globally.] Economist 13 Nov 04 "China: The Emperor Is Not Always Obeyed" (46):-article reports little on China's high growth rate, and much on new limits to Beijing's role/ability to determine the nature/rate of economic growth. "[M]any...new contradictions from central planning andstate ownership to something nearer market economics. Upstart private firms...now play important role in bringing new vitality to China's industries. But some essential things - such as bank credit and political support - still flow much more readily to state-run enterprises.[C]entral government has sought to limit economic overheating with mix of macroeconomic and administrative measures. Last month's interest-rate increase, China's first in nine years, was preceded by series of orders curbing bank lending and restricting fixed-asset investments, especially in...industries...At local/provincial levels, however, officials have understandably remained keen to keep up growth rates/tax revenues/employment figures.[S]een imposition of any measures designed to slow economic activity rather as they might look at a toxic-waste dump: vital for greater good ...but better in someone else's backyard.[Beijing]has gone from issuing orders to merely'trying to convince local governments that centre's policies are in their own best interests' .That task...has been complicated by rising influence of private firms...which can now muster wherewithal toinvest in capital-intensive projects.[C]entral government faces continuing struggle to control flow of money and investment. It remains fairly effective in regulating bank lending...'but there are huge sums of private money sloshing around that Beijing cannot control'.[H]iring/firing of officials throughout bureaucracy[is now]best defence against rebellious local governments[but]mice out there far outnumber indignant cats of Beijing."

C.Fred Bergsten"A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China's Economic Challenge"(57-69) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.4(Jul/Aug 08):-official summary:"Despite its growing economic clout, China continues to act like a small country with little impact on the global system at large and therefore little responsibility for it. Behavior threatens to undermine the existing international economic architecture. To avoid a major train wreck, Wshdc should seek todevelop true partnership with Beijing so as to provide joint leadership of global economic system"-e.g. trade/finance/energy/climate. Bergsten:Director, Peterson Institute for International Economics. Essay adapted from his forthcoming, co-authored book, China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities (Peterson Institute and Center for Strategic and International Studies, 08). See very current: Elizabeth C.Economy & Adam Segal "China's Olympic Nightmare: What the Games Mean for Beijing's Future"(47-56):-off.sum:"The 2008 Olympics were meant to be China's global coming-out party. But on the eve of Games, Beijing finds itself beset by internal protests and international condemnation on issues ranging from Darfur/Tibet to air pollution/food safety. If these challenges cannot be peacefully/successfully addressed, China risks losing its credibility as a global leader". Economy: C.V.Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia Studies at Council on Foreign Relations. Segal:Maurice R.Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at CFR.

Bruce D.Berkowitz"War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat"Foreign Affairs Vol.79/ No.3 (May/Jun 00) :-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks(and defending your own)have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspectof world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civiliansociety depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing devicelinked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/ technology usable for computer warfarekeep improving; lasers/ microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policy issues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and defense.

Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.

Richard K.Betts"The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/ Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use, much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence- commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and uncertainty about just whatsomething could be...At end of day, strongest defense against intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good sense, good character and good mental habits of senior officials". Not mentioned in FA, but relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers" (Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need? Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton). Something to be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right Man?" (26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism. President Bush has nominatedCongressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist 28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each responsible for different phase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong; some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human intelligence-gathering.

Richard K. Betts, "The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?" Foreign AffairsVol.83/No.3(May/ Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use, much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence-commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and uncertainty about just whatsomething could be...At end of day, strongest defense against intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good sense, good character, and good mental habits of senior officials" .Not mentioned in FA, but relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers" (Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need? Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton).Something to be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right Man?" (26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism. President Bush has nominatedCongressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist 28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each responsible for different phase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong; some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human intelligence-gathering.

Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book is often described as the greatest defense for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in economic policy orin the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled withthe pursuit of free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent into trade sanctions and restrictions. [H]e argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defense of Globalization"(Oxford Univ 04), offers a 300+pp broader approach.

Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.

A. S. Bhalla edit.,Globalization, Growth and Marginalization(Ottawa: IDRC, 1998).-a very valuable study (for those knowing basic economics)of the effects of globalization on LDCs. The term is defined here using several global features: trade growth; FDI and capital flows growth; some globally-run production consumption; trade and investment liberalization; global-scale competition; the loss to national sovereignty; the standardization of values and cultures. The aim is to analyse globalization's impact on: (1) growth and productivity; (2) poverty and inequality; (3) employment. The LDCs are studied by region for both policies and effects. The conclusion is that while every LDC must bend to globalization, its social costs so great they must be anticipated. Includes good menu of possible research.

Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia & J Alexander Thier“Defining Success in Afghanistan: What Can the United States [and NATO] Accept?”(48-60) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.4 (Jul/Aug 10):-official summary:“Since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, the West has tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with Afghanistan’s history and political culture. A range of alternative models are possible, of which the two most realistic and acceptable in terms of US security interests are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty”. Emphasized extracts:“The US will have to push for a more inclusive, flexible, and decentralized political arrangement”. “Centralized governance matches neither the real internal distribution of power in Afghanistan nor local notions of legitimacy”. Final sentence: “The perfect is probably not achievable in Afghanistan - but the acceptable can still be salvaged”. Biddle is Roger Hertog Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Thier is Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. For a selection of articles on Afghanistan from the Foreign Affairs archives, see the collection at www.foreignaffairs.com/collections/afghanistan.

Nancy Birdsall "Life Is Unfair: Inequality in the World" Foreign Policy No.111(Summer 98):-ratio of average income of world's richest country to poorest grown from about 9 to 1 around century ago to at least 60 to 1 today; 80% of world's population in states generating only 20% of world income. National-income divide between well-educated elite and vulnerable/unskilled usually both evident/widening. Many causes: history; demography; access; policies(trade/ labour/services/investment).Now technology/computers play key role: information and skills are key assets. Hence essential to provide maximum of education/opportunity; states must use labour, and trade/equal access better. "The real danger...growing inequality may become lightning rod for populist rhetoric and self-defeating isolation" .

Nancy Birdsall & Arvind Subramanian"Saving Iraq From Its Oil"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4 (Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy, since they tend to impede developmentof institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation". In both this and Fareed Zakaria The Future of Freedom (73-6) (op.cit.) oil/minerals criticized for "richness" .[In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to basic/ processed elements(still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it(slaves? elephant tusks? diamonds?)].Essay is (otherwise)useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when they have local oil production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.

Matthew Bishop, "Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" in The Economist 29 Jan 00(1-22) :-this SURVEY claims that "globalization, accelerated by the Internet, is exposing serious flaws in the world's tax systems[even though]the taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization "might damage tax systems so badly that it could'lead to governments being unable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens for public services' " (5). Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens), plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes, while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possiblereaction: global tax-harmonization agreements; more consumption/environment taxes.

Susan Blackmore, The Meme Machine(New York: Oxford Univ. Press, 1999):-since Darwin's Origin of Species posited human evolution by natural means without metaphysical intervention, a heated debate has ensued over whether/how Homo sapiens is unique, e.g. by possessing a soul or free will. UN is affected, e.g. regarding technology, health care and law. This well-written book builds on many theories relating to theconcept of "memes" . Unique to Homo sapiens, like genes they are replicators but, unlike genes which replicate(copy)physical templates of parents in offspring, memes transmit words, ideas, beliefs and tastes, mainly by imitation, i.e. spread through peoples' activities. Author contends memes produced our large brains, language ability and altruism. Among less positive influences she includes sexual mores, myths(UFO, NDE, superstition, alternative medicine, religion(sic)). Soul/free-will are out.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad.[Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto take root and spread[to globe.]Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests[while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense of hopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playing increasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth. [This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progresswe need...coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but theirmain texts/distributions differ.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions...increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus]other extreme/ increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/ human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainablemanufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force]is good news,but... change/ambition required will be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/global policy must encourage development/ commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigate effects of climate change... G8 can take global lead both inmaking world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8[also]opportunity to agree onwhat most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively withother countries' growing energy needs... to ensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seem inevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.

Sandra Blakeslee "A Decade of Discovery Yields a Shock About the Brain" New York Times 04 Jan 00:-US Congress declared 90s "Decade of the Brain" to support research. Most startling/scientifically-upsetting discovery was that long-held assumption human brain cells are fixed at birth and cannot even be renewed, apparently false. "In fact, from birth through late adolescence, brain appears to add billions of new cells...In adulthood, process...slows down but does not stop...Mature circuits appear to be maintained by new cell growth well into old age." News demands "total revision of how scientists think human minds organized,..shed new light on mechanisms of learning, memory and aging" and creates major opportunities in neurosurgery and treatment of brain injuries and disorders. Events/trends in neuroscience surveyed; see Goode(op.cit.)for those in brain medications. Blakeslee reports another revolutionary discovery about brain in "'Rewired'Ferrets Overturn Theories of Brain Growth" NYT 25 Apr 00:-MIT scientific team appears to have reopened question of relative contributions of genes and experience in building brain structure. It "rewired" newborn ferret brains so animals' eyes hooked up to brain regions where hearing normally develops, and found ferrets develop fully functioning visual pathways in auditory portions of brains,contradicting assumption that brains have specialized regions for different functions set at birth. It appearsbrains develop specialized functions based on information flowing into them and wire themselvesaccordingly: "experience shapes the brain." Also explains long-perceived "adjustments" to new brain needs/constraints/damage.

Alan S.Blinder & Richard E.Quandt"The Computer and the Economy"The Atlantic Monthly Dec 97:-mainly addresses the global puzzle of why, given the huge investment in information technology, productivity in the service sector has not improved faster. It reaches many of the same conclusions as others (e.g. Cairncross), including inappropriate statistics, inefficient application, etc. However, in the end the authors emphasise the importance of the historic time-lag in technological revolutions.

Christopher S.Bond & Lewis M.Simons "The Forgotten Front:Winning Hearts and Minds in Southeast Asia"(52-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6(Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US [Western?] policymakers can no longer afford to ignore Southeast Asia. Islamic militants pose a threat to stability in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. But rather than relying on miltary power alone to do the job, US should use trade, aid, and education to alleviate poverty in the region and win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asian Muslims". Bond is a Republican Senator from Missouri. Simons s a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. They are the co-authors of The Next Front: Southeast Asia and the Road to Global Peace With Islam.

Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming" (63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/ No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.

Newton R.Bowles United Nations: Less is More? A Report on the Fifty-Third General Assembly: September-December 98(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 99):-author is inter alia UNICEF Senior Advisor on Children/War/closely involved in UNGA/other UN meetings. Excellent report covers not only highlights of 98 UNGA but variety of related UN issues over year e.g. Security Council developments. Topics covered selectively but analytically:Overview; General Debate(tone/highlights);Globalization (dialogue/ business- liaison); ODA/FDI Resources;Human Rights/development/UN casualties; Humanitarian Intervention; Security Council(evolution);Conflict Prevention(education); Peacekeeping; Disarmament (new trends);Africa(war/ poverty); Crime(ICC/Tribunals/ terrorism/ drugs); NGOs/Civil Society; UN Management/Funding.

Newton R.Bowles, United Nations: Hedge or Taels? A Report on the Fifty-Fourth General Assembly: September-December 99(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada) (New York:www.unac.org 00):-valuable impressions of tone/highlights of UNGA Regular Session/related developments, particularly in Security Council. Subject titles(and main points): World in 99(better prospects than 98; praise for UNSG/UNGA President; radical UNSG speech: humanitarian law before sovereignty(text: Annex 1);no UNSC reform but more open; progress on UN human rights and development role); General Debate(main value: networking/ stage-setting; main theme: massive human rights violence, armed conflict within states; major points of notable speeches);Human Security Issues(follow-up to "Agenda for Peace" particularly prevention; key: broad "international approach to poverty, human rights and social/economic development" (UNGA President Statement: Annex 2);UNSC renewed activism but no progress on membership or veto; special problems of Africa); HIV/AIDS(stress on Africa where death toll 10 times that of wars; Statement by UNAIDS Executive-Director: Annex 3); Conflict Prevention (improved early-warning/prevention strategies; seek social/economic root causes); Peacekeeping (major forces in Kosovo, Sierra Leone, East Timor, DR Congo total well over 30,000 in 00(Operations in Annex 4);International Justice(international criminal law fairly controversial compared with civil law; Yugoslavia and Rwanda Tribunals started from scratch but improving; International Criminal Court: 30 Jun deadline will be met; current: new convention on terrorism financing, working on conventions re nuclear terrorism and comprehensive anti-terrorism; planning international conference and transnational crime convention; Disarmament(gloomy: START II stuck in Duma; CTBT refused by Congress; ABM may be weakened or ignored; Conference on Disarmament is paralysed; Special Assembly Session on Disarmament unlikely;NPT review conference also unlikely; Resolution on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space passed, but US resumed anti-missile tests; practical progress on implementing/completing agreements on Chemical and Biological weapons, Landmines, Heavy Weapons register, Small Arms Trade; Development(of LDC needs-investment, markets, debt relief, only ODA is responsibility of UN proper(and aid is declining),but UN-Bank/Fund relations closer; North-South dialogue also less confrontational; "Agenda for Development" stresses good governance/ accountability/participation/social security; UNSG WTO speech(Annex 5) highlights LDCs' need to share globalization; 01 all-issue conference on financing development will bring in all stakeholders); UN Aid(of $50b annual ODA, $5b through UN and $5b World Bank; UN stresses social concerns/human development; UNDP major effort to coordinate multilateral aid better); Business and Labour(UNSG challenged big business at Davos to "Global Compact" tocooperate with UN on human rights/labour standards/environment; positive response from ICC; ICFTUalso undertook to support); Humanitarian Activities(natural disasters cost $500b in 90s; armed conflicts cost $200b in external aid, so probably over $1 trillion overall; UN priority to avoid or mitigate natural disasters or conflicts);Human Rights(most humanitarian law written since WWII; much being added; all aspects of human (mis)behaviour come together at UN under human rights; UNSC adopted strong/comprehensive policy on protecting civilians(Annex 6); in Kosovo/East Timor, UN creating entirecriminal justice and human rights systems; UNHCHR investigating standards in 21 fields worldwide);Women's Advancement(Special UNGA Session on Women(Jun 00)will examine implementation of BeijingConference decisions; UNGA studied new report on role of women in development);Children(Tenth Anniversary of Convention on Rights of Child; UNSC resolution "strongly condemns targeting of children in situations of armed conflict" );Finance and Management(main focus again US budget arrears followed by highly-conditional part-payment; 00-01 biennium budget $2,535m, up a symbolic $3m; staff managementstill slow/ cumbersome; excellent final report of 5-year "Internal Oversight" (quoted));Civil Societies(getsmore into basic issues of development-globalization; UNSG for tripartite "Global Compact" :UN-business-civil society);(Annex 7:Current Membership of UN Organs).

Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun 06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will lastfor decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another [major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".

Keith Bradsher "Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:- "The sleet,bulbous-nosed new bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they represent the start of a 180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction, system scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives, offering alternative to clogged highways and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may... control oil imports, curb fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded train will use only sixth of energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with bus ride, figures are half the energyand a quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost - $15b... - madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down through western Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles... System will start with 19 trains in each direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90 minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need to cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how many people use its somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is developed around these stations and how much tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High - Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed high-speed rail system geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and embarrassing ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins. [I]t represents colossal effort toimprove transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment. [P]roblems that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about being unable to use credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours from Taipei".

Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past. Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Corespondent for New York Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.

Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the 300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines; Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison; Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos; New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.

William J.Broad"Giant Leap for Private Industry: Spies in Space"New York Times 13 Oct 99:- described as "one of most significant developments in history of space age" with potential to be "revolutionary" ,Space Imaging Inc., private company owned by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, recently exhibited photograph, taken by Eastman Kodak camera and telescope system, from its own satelliteorbiting at 400 miles that shows details only meter in size. Hailed as world's first private spy satellite, image sharpness reportedly rivals acts of military spy satellites. Pentagon expected to be main customer: such photos can aid detection of countries trying to set off underground nuclear explosions in secret, as well as help geographers, urban planners, etc. Three other companies plan to put similar satellites in orbit in a year, and perhaps dozen may fly in next decade. [Detailed pictures of whole earth for all highlights, both value and thirst for knowledge.]

William J. Broad," Maybe We Are Alone in the Universe, After All" in New York Times 8 Feb 00:-in one SETI(search for extraterrestrial intelligence) project alone, 1.6m people in 224 countries have donated 165,000 years computer time to analyse signals from space picked up by one radio telescope. The Economist 29 Jul 00"Divide and Conquer" (77-8):brings the project up-to-date by reporting that over 2m computers are involved and that in the 15 months since its launch 345,000 years' worth of computer time have been put in. This article is more detailed on the enormous technical and economic potential of "distributed computing". For instance, the machines involved are" collectively the equivalent of a computer operating at around ten million million calculations a second, about ten times faster than any conventional supercomputer. Meanwhile, planets of one sort or another are being located at an accelerating rate by astronomers, while astrobiologists estimate our galaxy could include a million advanced societies; the universe: 10 trillion. On the other hand, in their book "Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe" (New York: Copernicus, 2000), Drs. D.C.Brownlee and P.D.Ward claim recent scientific data imply humans may be alone in the cosmos. They do not question that "life is an inherent property of matter,as most scientists believe", and" strongly encourage" SETI work to test their hypothesis, but argue Earth's "composition and stability are extraordinarily rare. Most everywhere else, the radiation levels are too high, the right chemical elements too rare.., the hospitable planets too few...and the rain of killer rocks toointense for life ever to have evolved into advanced communities", though microbes may survive in many places. Debate is lively and fascinating.

William J.Broad & David E.Sanger"As Nuclear Secrets Emerge, More Are Suspected" New York Times 26 Dec 04:- extraordinary article, over six printed pages long, that contains so much fascinating material thatsummary is not feasible. Following material from item's beginning and end, however. "When experts fromUS and [UN's]International Atomic Energy Agency[IAEA]came upon blueprints for 10 kiloton atomic bomb in files of Libyan weapons program earlier this year, they found themselves caught between gravity/pettiness. Discovery gave experts new appreciation of audacity of rogue nuclear network led by A. Q. Khan, a chief architect of Pakistan's bomb. Intelligence officials had watched Dr. Khan for years andsuspected he was trafficking in machinery for enriching uranium to make fuel for warheads. But detailed design represented new level of danger, particularly since Libyans said he had thrown it in as deal-sweetener when he sold them $100 million in nuclear gear...Nearly a year after Dr. Khan's arrest, secrets of his nuclear black market continue to uncoil, revealing a vast global enterprise. But inquiry has been hampered by discord between Bush administration and nuclear watchdog [IAEA], and by Washington's concern that if it pushes too hard for access to Dr. Khan, national hero in Pakistan, it could destabilize ally. As result, much of urgency has been sapped from investigation, helping keep hidden full dimensions of activities of Dr. Khan and his associates...Worried about what is still unknown, IAEA quietly setting up...Covert Nuclear Trade Analysis Unit, agency officials disclosed. It has about half dozen specialists looking for evidence of deals by Khan network or its imitators. "I would not be surprised to discover thatsome countries pocketed some centrifuges," Dr ElBaradei[IAEA]. "They may have considered it a chance of a lifetime to get some equipment and thought,'Maybe...good for rainy day.'"

Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2 (Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier(World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.

L.Anathea Brooks & Stacy D.VanDeveer, edit., Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park: Maryland Sea Grant 1997):-although focused on environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, book is not technical for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes broad/thoughtful look at every major aspect of environmentalism, using coastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, Nature (environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases); Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge (scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and Institutions (changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics);Approaching Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.

Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).

Lester R.Brown"Feeding Nine Billion"(115-32)in State of the World(1999)(New York: W.W.Norton, 1999):-main points: World grain harvests grew from 400m tons in 1900 to nearly 1.9b in 1998, aided by massiveirrigation (40% of food), chemical fertilizers, huge plant-breeding advances, short-stem wheat/rice, hybridcorn - such cropland assets being globally available. Yet 840m people are hungry/malnourished(19,000 children die daily from effects of malnutrition). Other two basic food-supply systems - oceanic fisheries andrangelands - appear to have reached global carrying capacity, and per capita grain production hasdecreased 7% since 1984. Meanwhile the current 6b world population is expected to grow to 9b about 2050, during which period net global harvested area is expected to be almost unchanged, and to continuedropping per capita to 0.07 hectares(1950=0.23). Mounting water scarcity has reduced irrigated area per capita by 6% since 1978, simultaneously lowering fertilizing capacity - and levelling off for lack of further benefit. Remaining route to increased food productivity - plant breeding - could raise drought-, disease-, insect-resistance and salt-tolerance, but now little gain is physiologically possible for wheat, corn and ricein terms of further raising crop yields. It all means that eradication of hunger and malnutrition now may depend heavily on demand-side initiatives: slowing population growth and using grain and water more efficiently.

Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point; Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry; Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses); 5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts; Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise; Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8. Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well (Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Proteir More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain; Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy; Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy: 2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

R.A.Buchanan The Power of the Machine: The Impact of Technology from 1700 to the Present (London: Penguin Books 94):-approach differs from, say, Bell, Drucker or Toffler(op.cit.)in that, in analysing accelerating transformation of society, it deals more with physical than societal changes, with new structures more than their social implications. While UN actions must reflect both trends-and resulting concerns- "most pervasive/persistent stimulus to change has been technological combination of scientific discovery and technical innovation" .For truly revolutionary example of technology being explored, see K.Eric DrexlerEngines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday 87):-genuine feasibility of creating assembly machines smaller than living cells generated increasing attention from 1990s because of their multiple uses. For an excellent 18-years-later account of global nanotechnology activities/anticipation, see Natasha Loder "Small Wonders: A Survey of Nanotechnology" The Economist01 Jan 05(1-12):-key point "Nanotechnology will give humans greater control of matter at tiny scales. That is a good thing." Enormous, if scientifically basic, concept behind booming business initiatives isexplained, and" point about nanotechnology is that it sets out deliberately to exploit strange properties found in these very small worlds." Four other essays summarized: "Apply Here: Where very small thingscan make big difference." "Fear and Loathing: Some of worries about nanotechnology are rational." "Downsizing: Companies both large and small hope to make big money from tiny particles." "Handle with Care: Nanotechnology promises great benefits, but safeguards will be essential." Drexler's idea" that one day all manufacturing would be done by very tiny robots" had raised terror; but now activity/research quite specific/monitored. Survey concludes" idea of 'democratising'nanotechnology - giving ordinary people more of say in what areas of S&T should be pursued - unlikely to be helpful.[N]ext to impossible to slow down or control some areas of science in one country when world so interconnected...Nanotechnology, like any new discovery, offers both risks and rewards... Scientists should...work with as little hindrance as possible."

Robert Buckman, Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).

Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".

Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

Gary Burtless, Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert E. Litan, Robert J. Shapiro, Globaphobia: Confronting Fears about Open Trade (Washington: Brookings Institution/Progressive Policy Institute/Twentieth Century Fund, 1998). - major criticisms of global and regional free trade are contradicted skilfully, using fairly non-technical data and arguments. The authors' concern is that while the US economy has been doing well in terms of growth, job creation, inflation and investment, at the same time unskilled industrial workers have faced layoffs and/or stagnant incomes, feeding fears of that this is the direct result of imports from low-wage economies. Statistics prove, however, that such broad structural and technological problems and trade flows are unrelated. Recommendation: earnings insurance is proposed to reduce the pressure for protectionism.

Daniel F. Burton, Jr., "The Brave New Wired World" in Foreign Policy No.106 (Spring 1997). - the author describes the significance of the imminent worldwide system of interconnected computers or "Network". This global evolution of Internet (with perhaps 250m users by 2000) will not even require PCs to access any selected services. "As borders become more porous and the role of nation-states more tenuous, thedistinction between domestic and foreign policy will fade"(33). See The Economist 12 Sep 98: "Onward to Pervasive Computing" (Editorial: 18) and "The Future of Computing: After the PC" (79-81):- these cover the same trends and their implications for the global economy and the electronics industry.

Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, Anticipating the Future: Twenty Millennia of Human Progress(London: Simon & Schuster 1998):-this book is both stimulating and misleading -points made in Reviews in both The Economist 14 Feb 98(12)and Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.2(Mar/Apr 1998)(134-9):-in spite of its title, almost entire book deals with broad sweep of human past and present, in order to put 1998 and our possible futures into focus. It does it clearly/usefully if in fairly orthodox terms. "Future" section anticipates UN system stymied, mainly by US, requiring replacement. My criticism is that it underestimates depth and acceleration of current global change(INTRODUCTION or Bull-op.cit.).

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). So knowledge revolution will dominate world, enabled by communications revolution. It follows thataccess to, and possession of, useful knowledge determines not just success but survival. This in turn means maximum/most current education is essential individual/community asset.

Frances Cairncross "The Millennium Bug: Time Runs Out" The Economist 19 Sep 98(1-18):-Survey takes apolitical and economic look at a serious global problem, and one that can arise not just once in a millennium but, in a computer- dependent/vulnerable world, when a fault/error/virus/breakdown threatens(large/key elements of)the network as a whole. The author helpfully explains in non-technical terms the origin and practical implications of many computers' inability to recognize years after 1999, and why this raises so many concerns. Globally, direct costs of correction may be $500 billion, plus indirect costs of perhaps $1 trillion. The World Bank and ITU are helping LDCs, but many OECD countries will not beprepared. Besides IT-dependent governments, areas facing special problems: telecommunications, finance, energy and air transport. The "main economic threat from the bug will be its effect on financial confidence" .

Frances Cairncross, "A Survey of Pay: The Best...and the Rest" The Economist 08 May 99(1-20):-withconcern over inflated executive incomes and increasing domestic pay divergence, the Survey not only finds many causes, but also basic changes in the way pay is determined. While most is still set by local markets, global communications/MNCs are creating global rates. English'global role(hence universal premium)and the ecu's creation break down national(pay)boundaries. Within firms, the need to move topstaff or let some work online from places of choice, combined with functional organization (paying staff by role not location), all tend towards global rates. Also, with more jobs now being education- and initiative-intensive, top human capital is in high demand, forcing relative pay increases, plus diverse and variablereward systems(stock options/bonuses)to meet competition and encourage motivation, loyalty, flexibility.More inequality lies ahead.

Frances Cairncross, "A Survey of E-Management: Inside the Machine" The Economist 11 Nov 00(1-40):-while aimed at business, text relevant to development, economics/finance/jobs/ education, globalization, government, HR, law, S&T, many UN roles. "Change has not only become more rapid, but also more complex and more ubiquitous" (5). Behind resulting uncertainty in all forms of management liesInternet/related technologies, whose evolution/impact only just starting. It offers new communicationsand distribution channel, market place, information system, and tool for creating goods and services, all driven by dramatic falls in cost of handling/transmitting information. It produces "almost instant" andpossibly huge productivity gains, at minimal expense for hard- and soft-ware, but demands ten times that investment in new "organizational capital" .Survey analyses: internal communications; links with suppliers/sources and customers/consumers; organizational changes; good e-management. Last needs:1.Speed; 2.Good People;3.Openness;4.Collaboration Skills;5.Discipline;6.Good Communications; 7.Content-Management Skills;8.Customer Focus;9.Knowledge Management;10.Leadership by Example.

Thomas Carothers"Civil Society: Think Again"Foreign Policy No.117(Winter 1999-2000):-author contends that "civil society's worth as a concept has soared far beyond its demonstrated returns...[The original 18th century idea was a]" domain parallel to but separate from the state... where citizens associate according to their own interests and wishes" (18). It revived in the 1990s as dictatorships conceded, politicalparties ossified, government retracted, technology made grouping easy/powerful. Broader than do-good NGOs, the concept spans all interest groups outside state and market. The ends of such groups can begood, bad, bizarre, and conflicting. They can strengthen or weaken both democracy and dictatorship(NAACP; NRA; Hitler Youth; Solidarity), and a strong civil society is not essential for democracy or economic success(Japan); it can hurt(Latin American unions). Civil society and the state are not rivals butcomplementary, and many groups get state funds. "Global" civil society may be ancient, artificial, even hate-ful.

Geoffrey Carr, "The Alchemists: A Survey of the Pharmaceutical Industry" in The Economist 21 Feb 98(1-18):-Survey claims scientific/technological revolution is sweeping this industry. It describes new technologies being developed and used, examines huge present/probable future changes in industry'sstructure, and asks what this could mean for future health care. Anticipates:(1)increase in range of diseases treatable with drugs; (2)increase in drug precision and effectiveness;(3)increase in ability to anticipate disease. Each trend is accelerated by new genetic insights and will have major global impact. But terrible rich-poor economic issue of drug patents/costs: unprobed.

Iain Carson"A Survey of Air Travel: The Sky's the Limit" The Economist 10 Mar 01(1-23):- describing civil aviation's recent business history and likely trends, also offers considerable key up-to-date information regarding global role and critical future of a huge, world-shrinking industry. Current situation is strangely mixed: airline profits are substantial yet consumers pay 70% less per passenger mile than 20 years ago; revenue per seat declining by 2% a year, yet customer dissatisfaction has reached new peaks(demand exceeds infrastructure)! In 2000, passenger journeys by air exceeded 1.6b(9m 1945);40%of world-manufactured exports by value travelled by air. Omni-route air networks demand created global airline "alliances" that may soon consolidate into three or four. Meanwhile Internet can identify optimal routes, let consumers "shop around" to keep ticket prices competitive, and eliminate all "paper" forms;computers offer a satellite-based system of air traffic control, doubling its capacity.

Ashton Carter, John Deutch & Philip Zelikow "Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6 (Nov/Dec 98):-distillation of Universities Study Group on Catastrophic Terrorism reportpublished by Stanford University. Version will also appear as chapter in forthcoming Preventive Defense: An American Security Strategy for the 21st Century by Ashton Carter and William Perry. All(distinguished) members of Study Group are listed in footnote. Conclusions are: terrorism using weapons of mass destruction has moved "from far-fetched horror to a contingency that could happen next month" ; particularly with biological weapons, "technology is more accessible, and society is more vulnerable" ; elaborate "networks have developed among organized criminals, drug traffickers, arms dealers, money launderers, [thus]creating infrastructure for[such]terrorism around the world" . While recommendations directed mainly at urgent US action, all fall into universal categories: intelligence/warning; prevention/deterrence;management of crises and consequences. All needs international/global cooperation.

Ashton B.Carter"How To Counter WMD"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.5(Sep/Oct 04):-ex-US Assistant Secretary of Defense (under Clinton)and currently Co-director, Harvard Preventive Defense Project, writes just when:most are concerned that US attacked Iraq by mis-claiming WMD threat; US presidential election imminent. Concerned that since 11 Sep crisis, US "counterproliferation policies have not been overhauled" ,and" it has made no new efforts to prevent nonstate actors such as terrorists from getting their hands on WMD." He truly decrees much reliable advice on countering the serious terrorist/WMD dangers to the entire global audience, and not to Washington only. His basic view:" WMD generally applies to nuclear, biological, chemical weapons; ballistic missiles; more recently'dirty bombs,'ordinary explosives containing some radioactive material. But this definition is too broad. Chemical weapons are not much more lethal than conventional explosives/hardly...WMD label. Similarly, long-range ballistic missiles especially destructive only if they have nuclear or biological warhead, and so should not be considered separate category. Dirty bombs cause local contamination and costly priority. Primary focus of counterproliferation policy, therefore, should be nuclear and biological weapons...True overhaul of counterproliferation policy would recognize that, like defense against terrorism, defense against WMD must be multilayered and comprehensive. Such reforms would aim to eliminate threat of nuclear terrorism entirely by denying fissilematerials to nonstate actors and...prepare to contain scale of most likely forms of bioterrorism to minor outbreaks. It would revamp outdated arms control agreements, expand counterproliferation programs,...improve way intelligence on WMD is collected and analysed.[W]ould favor countering WMD with non-nuclear rather than nuclear measures. And it would at last develop coherent strategies for heading off...most pressing nuclear proliferation threats." Substantial article then amplifies all these points.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s),(un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

Walter J.Clemens Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters: (1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain? (2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders; (3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count? (4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight? (5)Power and Influence: What Wins? (6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners? (8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help? (10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity? (11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East (12)Challenges of Development: South Meets North (13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First? (14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations (15)Organizing for Mutual Gain: UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors (16)International Protection of Human Rights: Sham or Revolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

David S.Cloud"Navy to Expand Fleet With New Enemies in Mind"New York Times 03 Dec 05:-"[US] Navy wants to increase its fleet.., reversing years of decline in naval shipbuilding and adding dozens of warships designed to defeat emerging adversaries, [US] officials say... While increasing fleet size is popular [in] Congress, plan faces various obstacles, including questions about whether affordable...andwhether mix of vessels is suitable to deal with emerging threats, like China's expanding navy... [F]leet reached its cold war peak... in 1987 and... steadily shrinking since then... 'Navy appears... grappling with need to balance funding for supporting its role in the global war on terrorism against those for meetinga potential challenge from modernized Chinese maritime military forces', said a naval analyst. [P]lan calls for building 55 small, fast vessels called littoral combat ships, which are being designed to allow Navy to operate in shallow coastal areas where mines and terrorist bombings are a growing threat. Costing less than $300m, littoral combat ship is relatively inexpensive... Choices have led some analysts to suggest Navy is de-emphasizing threat from China, at least in early stages of the shipbuilding plan. Beijing's investment in submarines, cruise missiles and other weapon systems expected to pose major threat to US warships for at least a decade... 'This is not a fleet that is being oriented to Chinese threat', said analyst. 'It's being oriented around irregular warfare/stability operations/dealing with rogue states' .

Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic] prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/ tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/ poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".

Avner Cohen & Marvin Miller“Bringing Israel’s Bomb Out of the Basement: Has Nuclear Ambiguity Outlived Its Shelf Life?”(30-44) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.5 (Sep/Oct 10):-official summary:“For decades, Israel has maintained an ‘opaque’ nuclear posture - neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons. As pressure for Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty grows and Israel’s tensions with Iran mount, the time has come to reconsider this policy of nuclear ambiguity. Israel can loosen its policy of opacity without jeopardizing its security, and doing so would burnish its credentials as a responsible nuclear power”. Emphasized extracts:“For Israelis, nuclear opacity is one of Israel’s greatest strategic and diplomatic success stories”. “Most countries have followed Washington’s lead, accepting Israel’s opaque nuclear posture and treating Israel’s nuclear program as an exceptional case”. “Opacity undercuts the need for Israelis to be informed about issues that are literally matters of life and death”. “Israel should resist the view that military action is its only option for dealing with the perceived Iranian threat to its existence”. Final sentence: “[I]n order to deal effectively with the new regional nuclear environment and emerging global nuclear norms, Israel must reassess the wisdom of its unwavering commitment to opacity and also recognize that international support for its retaining its military edge, including its nuclear capability, rests on its retaining its moral edge”. Cohen is a Senior Fellow at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies and author of forthcoming book The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain With the Bomb. Miller is Research Associate in Science, Technology, and society Program at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He was Senior Research Scientist in MIT Nuclear Engineering Dept and has served as consultant to US State Department and Los Alamos and Oak Ridge National Labs. For annotated guide:“What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation”at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation.

Eliot A.Cohen"A Revolution in Warfare: Technology Strikes Again" Foreign Affairs Vol.75/No.2 (Mar/Apr 96):-contends that complete/real-time knowledge of battlefield(plus guided ammunition)changed warfare in virtually every sphere -including political." Might lead...to drastic shrinking of military, casting aside old forms of organization and creation of new ones, slashing of current force structure, and investment of unusually large sums in [R&D].

Isobel Coleman"The Payoff From Women's Rights" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun 04):- three points strongly: women's full rights critically important not just for women alone but for entire societies; most negative women's areas of world are both curbed by old-style religion/culture and blocked economically;US can and must do more to improve this. First point:" Over past decade, significant research has demonstrated what many have known for long time: women critical to economic development, active civil society, good governance -especially in developing countries. Focus on women often best way reduce birth rates/child mortality; improve health/nutrition/education; stem spread of HIV/AIDS; build robust/self- sustaining community organizations; encourage grassroots democracy... Women's status advanced in many countries: gender gaps in infant mortality rates/calorie consumption/school enrollment/literacy levels/access to health care/political participation narrowed steadily. These... benefited society at large/improving living standards/increasing social entrepreneurship/ attracting foreign direct investment." Second point: "[S]ignificant gender disparities continues to exist, and in some cases to grow, in three regions: southern Asia, Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa. [C]onstraints on women living in areas [are] conservative/ patriarchal practices, often reinforced by religious values." Third point: "[Deep tensions] between religious extremists and those with more moderate/progressive views...evident in Saudi Arabia/Iraq/Afghanistan...to lesser extent Nigeria/ Pakistan/ Indonesia. Resolution critical to progress...,for those that suppress women likely to stagnate economically/fail to develop democratic institutions/become more prone to extremism." So urges US to intensify women's rights much more.

Isobel Coleman"The Better Half: Helping Women Help the World"(126-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Nicholas D.Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn: Half the Sky:Oppression Into Opportunity for Women Worldwide (Knopf 09). Official summary:"Efforts to provide the world's women with economic and political power are more than just a worthy moral crusade: they represent perhaps the best strategy for pursuing development and stability across the globe. [The $27.95 HC 320pp. book] is an insightful and inspiring call to action". [The review is very persuasive.] Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. Her book Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East to be published by Random House this spring. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.

Isobel Coleman"The Global Glass Ceiling: Why Empowering Women Is Good for Business"(13-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.3 (May/Jun 10):-official summary:"It is now accepted wisdom that empowering women in the developing world is a catalyst for achieving a range of international development goals. It is time for multinational corporations to get on board: funding education for girls and incorporating women-owned firms into their supply chains are good for business". Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. She is author of Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East (Random House:HC$26.00). For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Edward A.Comor"Governance and the`Commoditization'of Information"Global Governance Vol.4/No.2 (Apr-Jun 1998). - essay is critique of one major element in James N. Rosenau, "Governance in the Twenty-First Century" in Vol.1/No.1 (Winter 1995) (13-43) i.e. that "the rapid and widespread application of international communication and information technologies... facilitate a...trend in which governance becomes both more pervasive and disaggregated" (217). Comor argues there will be emerging power disparities between the information haves and have-nots, because the information consumption potential of the two groups will vary, favoured by the private sector and the dominant US policy in the WTO.

Commitment to Development Index(CDI), "Ranking the Rich: 2004"in Foreign Policy(Co-Edited with Center for Global Development(CGD))No.142(May/Jun 04)(46-56):-CDI in 2003 was a ranking of rich nationsaccording to how their policies help or hinder social and economic development in poor countries. In 2004, CGD/FP unveils... CDI that brings into sharper focus which governments lead the global community in the challenge of development. "Why should rich countries care about development in poor ones? For reasons both pragmatic and principled. In a globalizing world, rich countries cannot insulate themselves from insecurity. Poverty and weak institutions are breeding grounds for public-health crises, violence, and economic volatility. Fairness is another reason to care. No human being should be denied the chance to live free of poverty and oppression, or to enjoy a basic standard of education and health. Yet richnations' current trade policies, for example, place disproportionate burdens on poor countries, discriminatingagainst their agricultural goods in particular. Finally, the countries ranked in the CDI are all democracies that preach concern for human dignity and economic opportunity within their own borders. The index measureswhether their policies promote these same values in the rest of the world" .

Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future". Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Richard Cookson, "A Survey of International Banking: On a Wing and a Prayer" (1-38)The Economist 17 Apr 99:-an insiders' specialized study of a major business facing diverse problems and basic adjustment, as the world's financial system undergoes rapid change. Non-specialists will find its conclusion(36-8)relevant to many global issues. It argues that "the world's banking systems are in less good shape than many suppose. Their core business is being whittled away by capital markets...while shareholders are demanding better returns. To achieve them, banks have increased their revenues by lending to less creditworthycompanies, whether at home or in emerging markets...[,by entering new business, by merging and bycutting costs]. Many lost heavily in emerging markets, their risky assets fell, their information wasinadequate. A global recession, given current world overcapacity, could trigger deflation - and banking crises? An entire section(32-36)deals with the enormous - arguably fatal - impact of technology on banks.

Daryl Copeland, "Globalization, Enterprise, and Governance: What Does a Changing World Mean for Canada?" in International Journal Vol.LIII/No.1 (Winter 1997-8). -the article takes a worldwide approachdespite its title. This succinct but broad survey of globalization covers both its rationale and effects: borderless business-first priorities; technological shrinking of time, space, and ignorance; job insecurity and divergence; cultural convergence and ethnic reaction; structural standardization; uncontrolled finance. The author fears the end of the welfare state. Mark S. Worrall, "State and Society in the Age of the Global Economy" in Vol.LIII/No.3(Summer 1998)offers a friendly but more optimistic response. In his view" the state has been forced to share its powers with suprastate, substate, and nonstate actors" (579). While "not the driving force behind globalization...[the state] remains the single possible architect of the post-cold war order" (580). This must then include international institutions capable of addressing new global issues. Good analyses.

Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of purpose/confidence in itself."

Robert W.Cox, Review of Susan Strange, The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 96)(op.cit.)in International Journal Vol.LII/ No.2 (Spring 97):-favourable report on book of great relevance to future of global society and relations. Cox sees Strange's aim less as trying to describe growing limitations on state power than as identifying what constitutes power, where and why it is shifting, and implications. [Strange lays particular emphasis on power of global finances.] For Cox's own, related, theoretical views see: Production, Power, and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of History(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 87)Theme and Part 1(1-15); Part 2(105-267).

Gwyneth Cravens Power To Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy(New York: Alfred A.Knopf 07):-valuable source at a time when nuclear power once again gaining global popularity in light of climate change threats from fossil fuel emissions. While text is 450pp long and partly technological/scientific, it appears carefully and honestly drafted, and able to be used "here-and-there" as a source. Editorial summary is itself impressive, e.g."...On the nuclear tour, Cravens converses with scientists from many disciplines, public health and counterterrorism experts, engineers, and researchers who study both the harmful and benign effects of radiation; she watches remote-controlled robotic manipulators unbolt a canister of spent uranium fuel inside a 'hot cell' bathed in eerie orange light; observes the dark haze from fossil-fuel combustion obscuring once-pristine... skies and the leaky, rusted pipes and sooty puddles in a coal-fired plant; glimpses rainbows made by salt dust in the deep subterranean corridors of a working nuclear waste repository. She refutes the major arguments against nuclear power one by one... And she demonstrates how, time and again, political fearmongering and misperceptions about risk have trumped science in the dialogue about the feasibility of nuclear energy. In the end, we see how nuclear power has been successfully and economically harnessed... around the globe to become the single largest displacer of greenhouse gases, and how its overall risks and benefits compare with those of other energy sources. [A]n eloquent, convincing argument for nuclear power as a safe energy source and an essential deterrent to global warming".

Chester A.Crocker & Fen Osler Hampson, Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict(Washington: US Institute of Peace Press 96):-42 expert/practical essays(675pp)offeringnew facts/thinking regarding global challenges, and how resulting conflicts might be met(e.g. by UN).Challenges include: many weak(or failed)states; ethnic conflicts; religio-cultural militancy; populationpressures; resource crises(shortages, disputes);global competition; radical military technology(Adams op.cit.);mega-terrorism. Stress on preventive action.

Barbara Crossette, "UNESCO's Fat Gets a Trim And Reform Is in the Air" New York Times 5 Mar 00:-UNESCO's new Director-General, Koichiro Matsuura, a top Japanese diplomat and former Chairman of UNESCO World Heritage Committee, knew the Agency's reputation for patronage and inefficiency, butdiscovered "mismanagement was much more serious than...anticipated", staff seriously demoralized by arbitrary promotions, and auditing systems" almost nonexistent". He fired 20 politically-appointed advisorsfrom his own office alone, made tough speeches to the Agency's Board and staff, and opened a Web site for complaints. He will put a reform plan in place spring 2000 and hope the US will rejoin, but faces great obstacles in trying to turn around a badly damaged organization. Regarding policy, Matsuura finds UNESCO'scultural view largely European, and needing to recognize poor countries' heritages. Above all, he will stress education.

Stewart Crysdale, Alan J.C.King & Nancy Mandell On Their Own? Making the Transition from School to Work in the Information Age(Montreal & Kingston: McGill-Queen's Univ. Press, 1999). - rapid labor market changes are now global. This also demands rapid change in educational content and methods. This book - basically sociology - examines the resulting changes in the education-work transition. With education/work content undergoing their own transformations, it focuses on: why are so many young people having suchdifficulty finding permanent jobs in a growing economy; and what can be done to ease their transition into work? The conclusion is key factors are: education attained(increasingly need post-secondary), present job level(look ahead), job goal(realistic),innovative career planning(expect regular retraining), stable employment (can be learned), intrinsic satisfaction(can be taught),on-the-job training(eases transition/selection).

David Crystal, English as a Global Language(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 97):- carefully-worded description of English'present status, controversies and prospects by a renowned linguistics expert. While noting it is spoken well by about 1.5 billion people and is expanding rapidly in use/influence, author neither sees nor advocates English becoming more than essential, common second language for most of world. For more on English'history and geographical variations, see Robert McCrum, William Cran, and Robert MacNeilThe Story of English(New York: E. Sifton-Viking 86). Highly informative but lighter look at English, warts and all, is Bill Bryson, Mother Tongue: The English Language(London: Penguin 91). Economist 24 Feb 01 "The English Language Predominates: ...Still on the March" (50-1)reports survey of linguistic skills of EU citizens after both expanding EU and globalization have increasingly demanded and rewarded inter-cultural communication. It found that 56% claimed to be able to speak English(16% use it as their mother tongue), followed by French at 34% and German at 33%. Moreover 69% felt that "everyone should speak English" (including 66% of French; only 70% of outstandingly monolingual British!). Companion article onGermany's threat from creeping Denglisch cites German culture minister: "[G]lobalized world needs an international language. In business, science and technology, English already serves that function; to oppose its use is to deny reality" . Languages generally/how learned, by Ingram or Pinker(op.cit.)note a similar trend.

Roy Culpeper & Caroline Pestieau edit., Development and Global Governance(Ottawa: North-South Institute/ International Development Research Centre, 1996):-this is the proceedings of a conference of 30 international experts held in Ottawa in 1995 to discuss the interrelationships between development and the governance of the international economy. The agenda related to a coming G-7 Summit on "Reform of the International Financial Institutions" . The meeting drew three main conclusions: (1)instability or uncertainty in exchange rates/capital markets call for strengthening IFIs (IMF with SDRs); (2) the IFIs' outdated methods of governance/mandates demand they be given effective political-level direction(IMF Interim Committee); (3)development aid is inadequate/declining so ODA/ official flows need more careful management with priority given to the world's poorest, to collective world goals, and to good performersamong recipients.

Robert A.Dahl, On Democracy(New Haven: Yale Univ. Press 98):-carefully thought out and well-writtenintroduction to a complex and now globally-relevant subject. It asks and expertly responds to: Where/How Did Democracy Develop?; What is democracy?;Why democracy?; Why Political Equality?;WhatInstitutions?:Scale Factors, Parties, Constitutions, Electoral Systems; What Conditions FavorDemocracy?; Does Market-Capitalism Favor/Harm Democracy? Last Chapter, on Future of Democracy, is most relevant to this bibliography. It concludes: 20th Century was "era of unparalleled triumph" (180)for democracy, but its changing problems in evolutionary times make its future dependent on their solution. Market-capitalism will continue, perhaps with its nature to create inequality softened. Globalizing trends will remain hard to democratize. Human rights for disadvantaged will increase. Migration will raise cultural diversity in "old" democracies. Civic education in complex societies must expand.

Suzanne Daley"Rising Rate of Mad Cow Disease Alarms Europe"New York Times 07 May 00:- shows how hard it is to stop the spread of fatal diseases even with drastic control measures in an interdependent world. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy has just turned up in south-eastern France, having also been detected in native-born cows in 10 other European countries. While the number of continental cases identified is small compared with the 178,000 reported in Britain, those discovered in France have gone from six in 1997 to one weekly in 2000. Moreover the true total of cows (and humans) infected may be much larger as transmission modes and incubation periods remain mysterious. Nevertheless, considerable progress is being made in other respects: Sandra Blakeslee, " Clues to Mad Cow Disease Emerge in Study of Mutant Proteins" in NYT 23 May 00:-reports on the information exchanged at an international meeting on the disease. While scientists still do not know how the disease spreads to humans, how many more will die from it, and if a similar epidemic could start in the US spread by infected deer and elk, clues are now being discovered on an almost weekly basis. These are based on an infectious agent called the prion, normal proteins found throughout the body tissues of humans and other animals. For unknown reasons thesesometimes transform themselves into tiny particles almost impossible to destroy, and accumulate in the brains of infected animals/people, destroying cells and leaving spongy holes in the tissue. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is the human version and could eventually kill tens of thousands, -or die out. So far the death toll is 56 in Britain, 2 in France, 1 from Ireland.

James Dao & Andrew C.Revkin "Machines Are Filling In for Troops" New York Times 16 Apr 02:-presents "A Revolution in Warfare" of informative" interactive feature offering scenes from robot battle" ;substantial survey of current US military thinking/planning on reducing both number/vulnerability of US personnel directly engaged in combat. While technology already "brought array of sensors, vehicles and weapons that can be operated by remote control or totally autonomous" stunning success in Afghanistan has acceleratedexisting "shift away from people...to automation." Assets are many: much smaller/ lighter than manned units, making them cheaper, more fuel efficient/easier to move and have unlimited attention-spans. Most important, can both shield and augment(expensive) live soldier, while feeling neither exhaustion nor fear. "[O]ver time[such]technologies produce biggest change in warfare in generations" particularly when provided with" much greater autonomy, powerful artificial intelligence" .

Peter David"The Knowledge Factory: A Survey of Universities"The Economist 04 Oct 97(1-22):- while this Survey stresses the trends and problems facing higher learning in the most advanced societies, the ubiquity of post-industrial change makes its judgments global and UN-relevant. They include: cyberspace is less likely to hurt universities than to help them reach more students at lower cost, and create connections among scholars; the blurring of basic and applied research may in fact revitalize university science; the necessity to adapt will produce inter-campus competition for talent; massive expansion of the student body can still meet society's needs without hurting academe's mission or freedom.

Richard Dawkins, Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder(New York: Houghton Mifflin 98):-assumption is that people are increasingly aware of global scale of many human problems. Yet rapidly expanding knowledge of scientific facts and forces not only created suchawareness, but many global problems themselves. Also science's understanding of human evolution can bring profound feelings of cosmic insignificance and purposelessness. Yet many specialists in fields draw quite different conclusions. Dawkins is one and may well be best person clarifying science for non-experts. His other famous books:Climbing Mount Improbable(New York: W.W.Norton, 96);The Selfish Gene: New Edition(Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1992);The Blind Watchmaker(Harlow: Longman S&T 86). More thansimply populariser of science, Dawkins has capacity to explain variety of complex and debated conceptsin easily understood way, with amusing examples. His clear priority and speciality is to defend Darwinism, and educate non-specialists about latest scientific thinking on how and why evolution takes place. His 1998 book has particular aim of demonstrating that purely scientific view of life and universe need not be empty/ purposeless, but can be extremely uplifting. However, he offers fascinating new information in several fields. For short(160pp)explanation of evolution and its implications, in Science Masters Series, see River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life(New York: Basic Books 95). Here Dawkins carefully addressesseveral sincere "Creation-" and/or "Purpose-related" critiques of modern evolution and biological theory. He ends discussion of how "replication" transformed Earth with hope that better understanding of our place in universe "might have some beneficial effects upon our normally parochial little consciousnesses".

Richard Dawkins The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Life(London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson 04/Phoenix of Orion Books 05):-author's description of the 700 pages describing this planet's living history since life began: "Tale is a pilgrimage: a journey of four billion years. We, modern human beings, are the pilgrims, and we are travelling back in time to seek out our ancestors. Simultaneously every other living creature is setting off on its own journey with the same mission. Each pilgrim tells its tale along the way, and covers the processes involved in the unfolding of life on Earth". The 40+ chapters describe in turn the form(s) of life progressively in or from more distant periods, offering the best available scientific knowledge/theory, including of course many fossils, and their estimated dates. While much of the necessary vocabulary used is complex, Dawkins writes generously - and often amusingly - for non-scientist readers. Among the many favourable reviews carried in the introduction is one by John Cornwell of Sunday Times: "Beautifully written... Dawkins's account cites a stunning array of biologists past and present. No other book gives such an impression of sheer intellectual vitality and pluralism among the past century's evolutionary scientists. Virtually every page exemplifies a memorable insight into the strangeness and prodigality of nature, its culs-de-sac and its extraordinary leaps". I have read the long text, but each chapter can be read alone.

Richard DawkinsThe God Delusion(New York: Houghton Mifflin 06):-as with 06 Dennett/previous Dawkinsitems, many books related to the controversial global roles of science vs religion are now becomingincreasingly critical - and influential(?). They may ease or contribute to serious violence if the growing factual issues are not compromised in some manner. Dawkins is not only 'a preeminent scientist'but offers an extraordinarily thorough critique of mainly Christian/Jewish theology as supported by the Bibleand fundamentalism. Press outline includes:"With rigor and wit, Dawkins examines God in all his forms. [E]viscerates the major arguments for religion and demonstrates the supreme improbability of a supreme being. [S]hows how religion fuels war/foments bigotry/abuses children, buttressing his points withhistorical/contemporary evidence. [M]akes compelling case: belief in God not just wrong but potentially deadly. [A]lso offers exhilarating insight into advantages of atheism to the individual and society, not least of which is clearer/ truer appreciation of the universe's wonders than any faith could ever master". Highlight(282):"Fundamentalists know they are right because they have read the truth in a holy book and they know, in advance, that nothing will budge them from their belief. [I]f evidence seems to contradict it, the evidence must be thrown out, not the book. By contrast, what I, as scientist, believe(for example,evolution)I believe...because I have studied the evidence. It really is a very different matter. Books about evolution...believed because they present overwhelming quantities of mutually buttressed evidence. In principle, any reader can check evidence. When science book wrong, somebody eventually discoversthe mistake/it is corrected in subsequent books. That conspicuously doesn't happen with holy books".

Francis M.Deng et al. Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa(Washington: Brookings 96):- conclusion of 7-volume project to help governments/international community deal with conflicts in least stable continent(Reader op.cit.).Probes African states' responsibility: balance sovereignty sanctity against transborder political/economic/moral relevance of human rights violations/internal violence. Project concludes UN has unique role to play in Africa as both mediator and healer.

Daniel C.Dennett Breaking the Spell: Religion as a Natural Phenomenon (New York: Viking 06):-very carefully drafted by professor of philosophy, Tufts University and well-known author (particularly Darwin's Dangerous Idea 95), aims of 450p volume are the questions:"Is Religion Good For You? Should It Be the Basis for Morality?". Accurate, if full, summary of the book's aim on its dust-cover:"For many people around the world - perhaps most people - there is nothing more important than religion. It has comfortedthem in their suffering, become an integral part of their marriages and child rearing, and encouragedgroup cooperation to achieve ends both magnificant and terrible. Religion plays such a powerful rolein the world that we should try to understand it in all its complexities, but most adherants bristle at anyone who wants to investigate their practices and beliefs in a scientific manner. In this daring and important new book, Daniel C.Dennett seeks to uncover the origins of this remarkable family of phenomena that mean so much to so many people, and to discuss why - and how - they have commanded allegiance, becomeso potent, and shaped so many lives so strongly. Where does our devotion to God come from? Wherewas the psychological and cultural soil in which religion first took root? Is it an addiction or a genuine needthat we should try to preserve at any cost? Is it the product of blind evolutionary instinct or rational choice? Do those who believe in God have good reasons for doing so? Are people right to say that the best way to live a good life is through religion? In a spirited argument that ranges widely through biology,history, and psychology, Dennett explores how religion evolved from folk beliefs and how these early 'wild'strains of religion were then carefully and consciously domesticated. As the motives of religion'sstewards entered this process, such features as secrecy and systematic invulnerability to disproofemerged. Dennett contends that this protective veneer of mystery needs to be removed so that religions can be better understood, and - most important - he argues that the widespread assumption that they arethe necessary foundation of morality can no longer be supported. Breaking the Spell is not an antireligiousscreed but rather an eye-opening exploration of the role that religious belief plays in our lives, ourinteractions, and our country. With the conflict between science and 'intelligent design'becoming ever more impassioned, Dennett has written a calmly reasoned and timely book that will be read and debated by believers and nonbelievers alike".

Anthony DePalma"The'Slippery Slope'of Patenting Farmers' Crops" New York Times 24 May 00:- as noted elsewhere, much of controversy over genetically modified organisms(GMO)derives from their high costs in R&D and consequent concern of biotechnology companies to ensure "adequate returns" through patents(or intellectual property rights(IPRs); see Paarlberg)relating to their products. Most infamous patent defenses were "terminator genes" in cereal seeds that could not reproduce, and thus prevented re-seeding(Economist 9 Oct 99).This ensured annual seed purchases -and prohibitive costs in Third World. DePalma reports CIMMYT, Green Revolution's famous non-profit International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico, though founded to make high-yield products available free to Third World,has had to start patenting its work as defensive tactic to block attempts by others to patent its discoveries and thus keep small farmers from using them. Before companies/countries contribute to CIMMYT's research, they also require patents in own self-defense. Consolation: reproductive genes will be included in seeds distributed in Third World. Another GMO patent-related development reported in DePalma/Simon Romero "Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets, and Brazil May Be Next" NYT 16 May. US, Brazil, Argentinatogether grow 80% of world's 157m tonnes of soybeans annually, but have different rules for GMvarieties. In US several conditions must be met: for Monsanto, farmers pay fee for each bag of seed, agree not to save seed for following year ( "terminator" seeds were dropped after outcry)and accept inspections if claim to have stopped using seed. In Argentina, where perhaps 90% of soybean crop genetically altered, but its patents not recognized, effectively no rules. In Brazil, use of altered varieties not(yet)legal, but clearly smuggled in; to 30% of soybeans may already be uncontrolled GMO. "Global regulatory mechanism" obviously needed. Meanwhile, US regulations tightened further. Associated Press reported 03 May "F.D.A. Announces New Steps for Regulation of Biotech Food" according to which US Food and Drug Administration will require biotech companies to notify it at least four months before releasing "new genetically engineered ingredients for food and animal feed" and to provide their research data. FDA will also set" truthful and informative" standards for food processors wanting to label products made with/without such ingredients. Also, mainly response to new consumer concerns, North American retailfood industry/exporters facing novel problems in separating out GM products, because of explosive increase in use/saving. Some major food companies stopped sales of selected GM-based products,according to David Barboza in "Modified Foods Put Companies in a Quandary" NYT 03 Jun. However none has found it feasible to abandon biotech ingredients entirely, since about 70% of US grocery-store food may have been made with genetically altered crops. Related dilemma arisen in Europe. Donald G. McNeil Jr. "Anxiety on Genetically Altered Seed Spreads in Europe" NYT 20 May, reports on divergent reactionsof British, French, Swedish governments on discovering tiny amount in one seed variety in order of long-planted Canadian canola had inadvertently carried genetically-modified trait.

J.Raymond DePaulo & Leslie Alan Horvitz, Understanding Depression: What We Know and What You Can Do About It(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2002):-UN's World Health Organization has stressed that mental illness is an overwhelming global crisis against multiple humans' active lives and even survival. WHO's "study estimates that in the coming decade depression will rank as the number two leading cause of death in the world; most of those deaths will be primarily in the form of suicide and secondly from coronary artery disease" (133). The book, by one of the world's foremost authorities on depression, and coming from the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in the US, concentrates on the technically improving but widely undeveloped situation in that country. However, the clearly written and up-to-date text is among the most advanced and ideally relevant anywhere on earth. It includes a thorough, accessible guide to depression's nature, causes, effects, and treatments, and also provides essential advice tothose responsible for handling those suffering. Global knowledge pool is important.

Michael L.Dertouzos What Will Be: How the New World of Information Will Change Our Lives (New York: HarperCollins 97):-Director, MIT Laboratory for Computer Science is realistic, non-technical and thoughtful. He provides a wide-ranging picture of technical trends and their profound effects on nations, groups and individuals. The author concludes: "left to its own devices, the Information Marketplace will increase the gap between rich and poor countries...[so in the global self-interest] the wealthy must help the poor access and use the new technologies" (241ff). Generally, all states must coordinate their economic and security agreements in order to handle "borderless information" .

Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.

Claudia H.Deutsch "Unlikely Allies Join With the United Nations" New York Times 10 Dec 99:- "Across the world, huge companies that once shrugged off United Nations as worthy, if often ineffectually bureaucratic, do-good agency, now viewing it as valuable partner." Cites many cases of MNC-UN collaboration/usefulness to business, UN/countries getting aid. MNCs increasingly realize UN/UNDP open doors, act as valuable buffer with officials, open new markets. More general cooperation(e.g. human rights/entrepreneurship training)may help promote stability in countries with civil unrest, improve local business technique/experience, create bridges to communities. UN, for its part, gets part of and influenceon vast pool of FDI, ensures access to unique expertise and resources; yet, by not promoting specific companies, guards its neutrality and stimulates competition.

John Deutch, Harold Brown & John P.White "National Missile Defense: Is There Another Way?" Foreign Policy No.119(Summer 00):-three top defense politicians believe some NMD system "critical" to US future homeland defense, but initial system as planned is not best approach as it fails to address several threatsfaced. Propose building on theater missile defense (TMD) systems already under development against intermediate-range ballistic missiles since:(1)more balanced way to address varied missile threats;(2)offersboth technical/cost advantages; (3)more responsive to concerns of Russia, China, many USallies;(4)eases process of modifying ABM Treaty. Rationale:(1)ICBMs hardly most likely threat to US;theater missile threat particularly urgent;(2)present NMD program pursues too many options; driven byschedules rather than events; artificially separates NMD from TMD when latter can be upgraded(boost-phase)at less cost;(3)US must start budgeting against cruise missile or aircraft attack, and spend more onsurreptitious terrorist attacks;(4)impact on relations with Russia, China, allies of deploying NMD as planned likely severe. TMD would not violate ABM or threaten Russia and, if sea-based off DPRK, threaten China less. For(pro/con)LETTERS regarding article, see Foreign Policy Sep/Oct 00(new format/bimonthly).

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/ spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the 'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

Larry Diamond Promoting Democracy: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives (Washington: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict 95):-report to Commission describes organizations(including UN), activities, techniques and limitations, all of which help to promote democracy's worldwide spread and support.

Larry Diamond"The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State"(36-48) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "After decades of historic gains, the world has slipped into a democratic recession. Predatory states are on the rise, threatening both nascent and established democracies throughout the world. But this trend can be reversed with the development of good governance and strict accountability, and the help of conditional aid from the West". Author is Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution and Co-Editor of Journal of Democracy. Essay is adapted from his new book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (Times Books 08).

Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.

Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.

Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/objective look at globalized world production, trade, financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies, individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history, nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment; different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, serviceindustries; effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.

David Dollar & Lant Pritchett Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-this World Bank Policy Research Report described by The Economist 14 Nov 98(88)as henceforth "the book on foreign aid." Drawing on new research material/long-term surveys, ODA has been "highly effective, totally ineffective, and everything in between" (2).Secret is good governance(for instance in state rebuilding):(1)financial aid really works only in good policy environment;(2)truly wanted improvements in Third World economic institutions/policies key to "quantum leap" in poverty reduction;(3)aid can then complement FDI;(4)value of aid is knowledge that strengthens good policy(most financefungible);(5)active civil society helps lot;(6)in most distorted environments, donors should focus on good advice(particularly to any reformers), not money - presumably extremely important in failed or post-conflict states. Best aid investment is very poor but well-managed countries(India).

Paul Doremus et al. The Myth of the Global Corporation(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press 98):-tests structural and strategic convergence of MNCs(US/Germany/Japan). It finds "enduring diversity...in corporate governance...long-term..financing...national innovation and investment systems" (138). MNCs do most R&D at home; major differences exist in composition and technical activities of foreign affiliates. FDI and intrafirm trade practices consistently diverge. Hence "national institutions and ideologies shape corporate structure" (139)and policies, in spite of increasing global openness and integration. MNCs "createno automatic...mechanisms for regime formation" (145). As domestic power shifts, it may be concentrated globally. "Given scope, nationalist tendencies inherent in[economic]policies that governments...pursue could become more...dangerous" (148).More effective commercial diplomacy(WTO)required.

A. Walter Dorn "Keeping Tabs on a Troubled World: UN Information-Gathering to Preserve Peace" Security Dialogue Vol.27/No.3(Sep 96):-provides excellent summary reasons for UN's urgent need for security-relevant information of all kinds, of currently improving situation and future prospects. "Intelligence and Peacekeeping: The UN Operation in the Congo, 1960-64" co-authored with David Bell in International Peacekeeping Vol.2/No.1(Spring 95)provides detailed example of key role of intelligence for UN operations. In this operation, UN force did its own collection.

John J. Dowdy, "Winners and Losers in the Arms Industry Downturn" Foreign Policy Number 107(Summer 97):-valuable survey, not only of post-Cold War trends in scale and export trade of arms industry in US, Europe, Russia, but also effects on mergers/employment. FP by Solomon M. Karmel "The Chinese Military's Hunt for Profits" , covers PLA/PRC well. Also Survey "The Global Defence Industry" The Economist 14 Jun 97; update 12 Dec 98(23-6).

Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the