LEGAL ISSUES: INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE, LAW, COURTS, POLICE
from

Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

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by Christopher Spencer
Former Senior Advisor International Organizations,
Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Updated: 09 AUG 11


Ruwantissa I. R. Abeyratne, Aviation Security: Legal and Regulatory Aspects(Brookfield: Ashgate Publishing 98):-a specialized 400-page book would not normally be listed here. However this one thoroughly/expertly covers serious global problem, is best reference work known, and includes proposals for action. So recommended. Blurb states it: "examines offense of unlawful interference with international civil aviation; analyses critically legal/regulatory regime..., recommending...new approach to problem" .Among topics covered: Current Relevant Air Law; Issues Involved: Aircraft Hijacking, Sabotage and Missile Attack; AirportAttacks; Airline Security; Deterrence/Prevention; Legal Issues and Conventions; Drug Air Traffic and Counteraction; ICAO Role; Sovereignty; ICC. ISBN 1-84014-544-7. For more information/ purchase: www.ashgate.com. Aviation Trends in the New Millennium


Francis Kofi Abiew & Tom Keating "Outside Agents and the Politics of Peacebuilding and Reconciliation" International Journal Vol.LV/No.1(Winter 99-00):-discusses new policy towards, often mixedexperience with peacebuilding. Recent global trends:(1)major increase in intra-state violence;(2)multilateral emphasis on individual human rights/security, and hence humanitarian interventions. "In this context...peacebuilding emerged as central part of what rest of world to offer to divided societies" i.e. not just hostilities end but all necessary for sustainable peace. Yet past problems/ limitations demand careful look at practicality/suitability/ethics of outside intervention in support of peace building in divided societies. Analyse various motivations behind such intervention; then objectives: not just peace but also market democracy/ "politics of reconciliation." Unhappy(Canadian)experience in Haiti dissected to draw lessons.


Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.


Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.


James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

 

AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION

John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule" (Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether - in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While]Millennium African Renaissance Programme[made South Africa's president Mbeki call firstfor]'critical examination of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done differently'" ,editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt Africanregimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA article stressesincreased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which received about 1b poundsin bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on peacekeeping. Business item notes although,when South Africa's present rulers still rebels threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with attempts to create new class of black businessmen" .Survey's analyses, whileconcentrating on South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2) apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world country...Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses:(1)Land(Re)Distribution: with apartheid,white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education: takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatensnot just South Africans' security but very basis of their society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from 60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, but racial gaps are probably diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination;(6)Employment and Investment: both facemajor shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution" ;" only 40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation Commission provided neither, but offered "day in court" ; (8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000 whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those stayinggenerally do not suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Colouredscomplain they are "not black enough" ; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.

 

Masood Ahmed & Cheryl Gray Helping Countries Combat Corruption: The Role of the World Bank(Washington: IBRD 97):-produced by World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network(PREM). Bank's World Development Report 1997: The State in a Changing World(op.cit.)also deals with global corruption issues in government context but mainly descriptively, while PREM reportconcentrates on how Bank can help governments address corruption as serious development constraint. Daniel Kaufmann(op.cit.)lists more articles and books on this issue.

 

Salman Ahmed"No Size Fits All: Lessons in Making Peace and Rebuilding States"Foreign AffairsVol.84/No.1(Jan/Feb 05):-Review Essay by Senior Political Officer, Office of UN USG for Peacekeeping Operations who served in Cambodia, South Africa, Bosnia/Herzegovina, Afghanistan and Iraq. Providesanalysis of the argumentation of three books: Roland Paris At War's End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict(Cambridge: Cambridge Univ.Press 04); Kimberly Zisk Marten Enforcing the Peace: Learning From the Imperial Past(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 04); John Mueller The Remnants of War(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 04). All three draw"attention to important lessons that deserve serious consideration from policymakers and practitioners...Still, these authors make too much of similarities among cases they study and not enough of differences. And by using them to extrapolate bold models for state reconstruction, authors belie inherent complexities of task...Specifics of...conflicts - their scale as well as their historical geopolitical/socioeconomic roots - should inform how peace brokered/maintained. Yet none...pays enough attention to such fundamental considerations."Essay is worth reading - as a survey of all the issues faced by the UN when easing post-crisis problems.


AIDS: THIRD WORLD: COST-PATENT DILEMMA; GLOBAL ASSISTANCE

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach all media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.


John B.Alexander Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/religious bodies/ groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning".


Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US inthe decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structuresand access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower isinevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; globalalliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weaponsstates; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements;global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global.


Graham Allison"Nuclear Disorder: Surveying Atomic Threats"(74-85) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-this is the first of a complementary pair of topical essays on nuclear weapons problems and options. Official summary of Allison's:"The current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, threatened by North Korea's expanding nuclear weapons program, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Pakistan's increasing instability. US President Barack Obama has put these threats at the top of his national security agenda, but the effort to prevent catastrophe will encounter serious obstacles and stubborn adversaries". Emphasized extracts:"Over the past eight years, the Pakistani government has tripled its arsenal of nuclear weapons". "Obama's mission is to bend the trend lines currently pointing toward catastrophe". Final paragraph: "The international community has crucial choices to make, and the stakes could not be higher. Having failed to heed repeated warning signs of rot in the US-led global financial system, the world dare not wait for a catastrophic collapse of the nonproliferation regime. From the consequences of such an event, there is no feasible bailout". Allison is Douglas Dillon Prof. of Government and Director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Univ.'s Kennedy School of Government. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Nuclear Proliferation" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/nuclear-proliferation. Second essay: Charles D.Ferguson "The Long Road to Zero: Overcoming the Obstacles to a Nuclear-Free World"(86-94):-Official summary:"The Obama administration has embraced the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, but many political and economic obstacles stand in its way. If there is any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, US government will have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the presumed prestige that the ultimate weapon confers on its owners, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs". From first paragraph:"Over the past three years, a remarkable bipartisan consensus has emerged in WashDC regarding nuclear security. The new US nuclear agenda includes renewing formal arms control agreements with Russia, revitalizing a strategic dialogue with China, pushing for ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, repairing the damaged nuclear nonproliferation regime, and redoubling efforts to reduce and secure fissile material that may be used in weapons... In past year, President Obama has made this goal a priority for his administration..." Ferguson is President of Federation of American Scientists. From 2004-09 he was Senior Fellow for Science and Technology at Council on Foreign Relations, where he served as Project Director for the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force on US Nuclear Weapons Policy. For annotated guide to this topic, same source as Allison.


Kofi A.Annan "Peacekeeping, Military Intervention, and National Sovereignty in Internal Armed Conflict" in Jonathan Moore edit. Hard Choices: Moral Dilemmas in Humanitarian Intervention(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98)(for book see Moore op.cit.):-UNSG notes how UN operations forced to change radically since end of Cold War. One change been UN involvement in internal armed conflicts. "Often do not lend themselves to traditional peacekeeping treatment," requiring difficult coordinated political, military, andhumanitarian response. Meanwhile "understanding of sovereignty undergoing significant transformation" : "matter of responsibility, not just power." "[M]ust not be allowed to obstruct effective action to address problems that transcend borders or to secure human dignity." Author then provides illustrations, drawing mainly on UN role in Bosnia.

 

Kofi A. Annan, "Two Concerns of Sovereignty: International Intervention in Humanitarian Crises" The Economist18 Sep 99(49-50):-UNSG gives his views on basic issues. Inaction in Rwanda and interventions in Kosovo(no authority) and East Timor(too little too late)all justify criticism. We need consensus "not only... that massive and systematic violations of human rights must be checked...but also on ways of deciding what action is necessary, and when, and by whom." Critical points: "intervention" should not be understood as referring only to use of force; we need redefinition of sovereignty and broader definition of national interests that "would induce states to find greater unity in pursuit of common goals and values...today,collective interest is national interest" ;if force is necessary, Council must uphold Charter; act "in defence of our common humanity" ;ceasefires do not end commitments.

 

Kofi A. Annan, "Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global efforts to foresee, prevent, or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN activities over year to Sep 99, and selected plans and problems(in 130pp). Chapters address: peace and security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights; administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN obligations/reforms/savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial irresponsibility. International LEGAL developments are mainly discussed, with emphasis onhuman rights law, in the dedicated chapter(90-96), which gives particular emphasis to the plannedInternational Criminal Court and the International Tribunals for former Yugoslavia and Rwanda. The many UN-related legal questions handled by the Office of Legal Affairs are discussed separately(104-9).

 

Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).

 

Kofi A. Annan, "Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep 99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress and challenges at turn of millennium,and suggests ways in which international community can work together to" better lives of people still left behind" .Introduction, summarizing 130-page report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources. (5)Reviewsanalysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6) controversial economicbenefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared. (7)Must be cooperative management ofglobal economic affairs through more effective governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions, civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/Security; Humanitarian Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UNManagement.

 

Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/ social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime. Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Given gravity/ interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit disease treatment/ local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale natural epidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses. Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New is range/scale/ intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members). Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists:articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/ non-combatants, with purpose of intimidating population/ compelling action by government/ innatl organization. States should use to build consensus and strengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichment and urged to voluntary time- limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitor compliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far moreengaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiation since 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hasten efforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation.Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development) remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/ peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to give strategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able torely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/ questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection- responsibility -borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/other comparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/ not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: makeUNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised (1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/ militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole; not expand veto, which would renderdecisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/ better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/ mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSG more responsible formanagement/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/ improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommendsHuman Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again find world mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects.


"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.


Clair Apodaca, Michael Stohl, George Lopez, "Moving Norms to Political Reality: Institutionalizing Human Rights Standards through the United Nations System" (185-220)in The Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century(New York: UN Univ. 98):-extremely useful study of UN human rights structures, treaties and activities, employing a new sense that state legitimacy derives from internal order and regard for standards. Four main UN purposes include promotion of human rights, set down in Universal Declaration(48)and amplified in two International Covenants(76).All three now binding on all states. Many more specific UN System treaties, with recent emphasis on Humanitarian Law.Growing human rights roles of NGOs, High Commissioner and complex UN structures are explained.Reform proposals involve structure, NGO protection and regional action.


Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).


Associated Press, "UN Council Endorses Gun Control" New York Times 24 Sep 99:-on 24 Sep Security Council unanimously endorsed report by SG Annan on ways to reduce global stock of 500m handguns, rifles, shotguns and assault weapons. "Sweeping gun-control measures" reportedly included ban on private ownership of assault rifles presumably in wording US could accept. Nevertheless purpose of action while not binding, is "to increase pressure on world governments to impose stricter gun control measures and reduce arms trade." Significant, with 200m+ firearms owned by US citizens, that Annan stated clearly: "easyavailability of small arms has in many cases contributed to violence..." US Secretary of State apparently only spoke of tightening international/illicit arms traffic. Over 3m, mostly civilians, have been killed since 89in conflicts fought with only small arms.

 

Associated Press, "Number of Refugees Grows Worldwide" New York Times 13 Jun 00:-World Refugee Survey 2000, issued by prestigious US Committee for Refugees, claims that at end of 20th Century there were35m people worldwide "uprooted and in need of protection." Conflict contributed 7m to this in 99 alone, and despite UN success in ending some long-term disputes following end of Cold War, this estimated total had risen from 29m in 90. Moreover, of these, 13.7m are found in Africa(4.4m in Sudan alone).Another trend has been continually growing number of refugees that for various reasons remain in their own countries:Internally Displaced Persons. Identified IDPs now number at least 4m, and clearly demand higher priority from UN-UNHCR since they are not afforded same legal protections and care as" international" refugeesunder Geneva Conventions. On other hand, there is hope that some sources of refugees and IDPs may bein sight of permanent solution. Elizabeth Rosenthal, "Famine in North Korea Creates Steady Human Flow into China" NYT 10 Jun:-report on motives and stratagems of North Korean refugees within/outside their country. Any moves towards Korean reconciliation could have major and rapid effect on this crisis. For evenlonger-term look at issue of unwilling migration, AP reports "Conference Addresses Migration" NYT 10 Jun:-experts Paris meeting organized by Universal Academy of Cultures concluded "globalization demands greater moral responsibility and intervening in sovereign nations is plausible response to misery that drives populations beyond their borders." Those seeking political asylum increased from 250,000 in 87 to 900,000 in 92, but then declined to 388,000 in 98,perhaps reflecting growing influence of such perceptionin UN. Meanwhile, if Europe's population falls 100m by 50, migration waves may become beneficial.

 

Associated Press "Activists Seek Cluster Bomb Ban" New York Times 08 Aug 00:-British arm of International Campaign to Ban Land Mines has called for global moratorium on use, manufacture and sale of cluster bombs, pending in-depth review of their legality and impact. While designed to scatter immediately-exploding "bomblets" over large area, significant numbers of bomblets fail to explode on first impact; so effectively become land mines. By causing civilian casualties for years after hostilities end, charged their use is "indiscriminate and in clear breach of international humanitarian law." Group calls for laws requiring clearance after combat, compensation of civilian casualties and deployment records.Reuters, "UK Anti-Land Mine Group Seeks Ban on Cluster Bombs" NYT 8 Aug :- gives similar facts, but adds bomblets can blight farmland, impede economic recovery, grow in lethality over time.

 

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .

 

Associated Press"Maritime Authorities OK Tracking Measure"New York Times 19 May 06:-"Maritime authorities have agreed upon new legislation that will allow for long-range tracking of merchant ships - a key measure in tackling the threat of seaborne terrorist attacks, the UN International Maritime Organization said [19 May]. A total of 166 countries have agreed to the new rules for merchant vessels, which would also allow countries to conduct surveillance on vessels suspected of carrying illicit cargo.Organization said signatory governments had provisionally agreed to the changes in the Safety of Life at Sea convention... 'Ships will be required to transmit their identity, location and date and time of theirposition to be tracked by satellite', said UN shipping agency's external relations officer... New legislation will mean a ship's position can be identified up to 1,000 nautical miles from shore. Current systems arelimited to a range of a few hundred nautical miles... Merchant vessels trading in international waters willneed to switch to new long-range system by Jan 08, offering maritime authorities a system similar tothat used by air traffic controllers";

 

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".


Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary'describes wide variety of military activities, many of which bear little resemblance to those of today's... corporate endeavours that perform logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more". "The Bush Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility" . "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate security contractors to greater or lesser degrees ... Contractors are accountable to range of employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace" -NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably. Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity... requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO. "Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use... Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them". "Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next fortune to be found?".


Lloyd Axworthy and Sarah Taylor, "A Ban for All Seasons: The Landmines Convention and Its Implications for Canadian Diplomacy" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.2(Spring 98):-almost entirely on techniques used to persuade 122 governments to sign Convention(Dec 97)to eliminate the manufacture/use/export of anti-personnel landmines. Thrust: "Ottawa process" required governments and civil society to work together as team. This "soft power" approach is more appropriate because of changed international issues/relations/ outcomes that also call for more focus on human(vs state)security and humanitarian law.(See Hampson-Oliver op.cit.)The Economist 04 Dec 04 "Lifting Landmines: Easy To Lay, Hard To Dig Up" (46):-describes how one of world's worst minefields being cleared, and reports on techniques/global issues, at the time of an international landmine conference in Nairobi. "Rats, sniffer dogs and armour-plated bulldozers canhelp, but most mine-clearing still done by hand, usually by man with pointed stick and plastic mask." Those in Angola use no metal detectors since ground scattered with bullet casings as well. De-miners are rarely killed. "In five years since global ban agreed in Ottawa, nearly 40m landmines ...destroyed. Most were in stockpiles, but some 4m were painstakingly found and dug up. Nonetheless,devices still kill or maim 40 people/day...Some armies, such as Sudan's, continue to plant them.Guerrillas and rebels respect no treaties. Only complete destruction of existing stocks and end to manufacture would cut off supply. But that would require all countries to sign up to Ottawa treaty. So far144 countries have, but China, Russia, Pakistan, India, US still refuse. China...considering signing, butUS will not, mostly because minefields help keep North Koreans out of South Korea...US plans to switch to using mines that self-destruct after a few weeks(though not always reliably)will be used as excuse never to sign treaty. Men...will be prodding gingerly for long time yet."


Sydney D.Bailey & Sam Daws, The Procedure of the U N Security Council (Third Edition)(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-clearly most complete, authoritative and readable reference book on how UNSC works(or doesn't). With Council often in news and Canada member, knowing better what going on, and why, of practical value. There are 400 pages, but all can be read through quite painlessly as sprinkled with amusing anecdotes. For reference, chapters address distinct topics: The Constitutional Framework(how and why extraordinaryCharter role);The Council Meets(ever more secret huddles; what about; how methods change);The People(S-Gs; Presidents; dreaded P5; from polite quips to slugfests);Diplomacy and Debate(how debates are won -or stalled while your side wins war);Voting (various species of votes; skullduggery with veto);Relations with Other Organs(phantom Military Staff; UNGA hordes; Trusteeship Council immortality; eternal votes over ICJ judges; more skullduggery over S-Gs);Subsidiary Organs(planting acorns or pulling weeds);New Charter, New Members, New Rules, New Working Practices, or New National Policies?(UNSCreform deadlock and how to ignore it).Plus 200 pages of Appendices, on everything. To complete picture,Election of Nonpermanent Members described by Malone(op.cit.).


Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.


Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.


Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis & Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa(Oxford:James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamenting demography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/violence).While driven by change, these African reactions show historical influence of approving accumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thus nationalism, government and law are simply used; theircriminalization culturally-rooted.


Anne F.Bayefsky "Enforcing International Human Rights Law" (117-26) in Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1 (Fall 1998):-rapporteur's report of 1997 experts' conference whose aims were to improve enforcement of the six major UN human rights(HR)treaties, and " to develop a vision for the advancement of the treaty regime" . Apart from listing 106 very specific recommendations, eight underlying principles were identified: (1) HR are universal; (2) HR universality is diluted by widespread reservations; (3) HR protection is directlyrelated to democracy, good governance and rule of law; (4) Strength of HR treaty system is equal application of standards to all UN members; (5) International HR law/institutions complement natural HR systems; (6) Good implementation requires victim's access to state reporting; (7) Full compliance information is essential to credible/effective treaty regime; (8) NGOs play vital role in enforcement.


Zanny Minton Beddoes "Global Finance: Time for a Redesign?" The Economist 30 Jan 99(1-18):-excellentSURVEY: (1)identifies perceived and objective problems with generally uncontrolled, if IMF- "cushioned" ,world financial system;(2)describes often radical, mutually incompatible, and/or unfeasible reform plans; (3)offers some more modest but workable proposals. Dangers include certainty of crises if systems are not changed; IMF's "moral-hazard" role not reduced. Reform ideas range from IMF-abolition, through capital controls, to creation of global regulator, central bank, or world currency. Incompatible objectives remain:maintaining national sovereignty/ regulating financial markets/benefiting from global capital markets.Proposals:(1)rich states can improve norms of own financial markets;(2)can encourage responsible creditor behaviour;(3)institutions must innovate.


Zanny Minton Beddoes "The International Financial System: Think Again" (16-27)Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 99):-Economist's Washington economics correspondent argues against, qualifies, or supports numerous widely-held views about a need for new global financial architecture: a global market for capital does not yet exist; most just moves about. Allowing free capital movement in and out of a country may stimulate economic growth, if action is not premature. Recent emerging-market crashes are worse, but not more frequent, than before. Their "contagion" is not always irrational. Most crises are caused by weak banking systems, helped by lack of "due diligence" by foreign banks. Most ideas for new "global financial architecture" ill-advised and/or politically unfeasible. Reforms should not concentrate on capital flows control; at most dissuade short-term flows. A global central bank is unrealistic and imperfect. IMF merits some criticism and "moral hazard" concerns, but bailouts are not to blame for international economic crises, and few private investors escape lightly. Major lessons have been learned.


J.Marshall Beier & Steven Mataija edit. Cyberspace and Outer Space: Transitional Challenges for Multilateral Verification in the 21st Century (Toronto: Centre for International and Security Studies, York Univ. 97):-based on papers commissioned for/presented at 14th Annual Ottawa NACD Verification Symposium, sponsored by Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade. Titles of 21 Papers/ Chapters as follows: Keynote Address: Meeting the Multilateral Proliferation Challenge Through United Nations Actions(Gustavo Zlauvinen); (1)Where Are We Now; Where Are We Going in Arms Control?(Jonathan Dean);(2)The 1997 Multilateral Arms Control Agenda and ACDA Priorities(Thomas Graham, Jr.);(3)The Interface Between Treaties and Regimes: Challenges for Evaluation, Verification, and Implementation (Patricia Bliss McFate);(4)Significant Multilateral NACD Agreements: The Scope and Challenge of Implementation(Richard Guthrie);(5)Multilateral Control Regimes: Diverse Purposes and Congruent Processes(Gordon K. Vachon);(6)Non-Weaponisation of Space:An International Imperative(F.R.(Ron)Cleminson);(7)Proliferation Challenges of Cyberspace(David Mussington); (8)Information Revolution, Military and Arms Control(Jeffrey R. Cooper; Christopher Burton); (9)Virtual Security: Technical Oversight, Simulated Foresight, and Political Blindspots in Infosphere(James Der Derian);(10)Arms Control and Future of International Security(Brad Roberts);(11)Verification: An Active Role for UN(Alan Crawford);(12)Aerial Surveillance in Sinai Field Mission, Multinational Force and Observers, and UN Special Commission on Iraq: Issues and Commonalities(Rene Unger);(13)Spaceborne Imagery: A Universal, Effective, and Cost-Efficient Tool for Ongoing Monitoring and Verification(Phillip J.Baines);(14)Summary of Results from 1996 Workshop on Use of Satellite Overhead Imagery in Verification(Peter Stibrany);(15) "93+2"(IAEA)Critique(Jason Cameron);(16)Light Weapons: New Focus for Arms Control and Disarmament(David DeClerq);(17)Russian Crisis and Prospects for Arms Control(Sergei Plekanov);(18)Future Challenges for Multilateral Arms Control: A Case Study on Korea(George Lindsay; Jim Bayer);(19)The Multilateral Dimension of'Korean Problem'(George Lindsay);(20)Symposium Summary(Jacqueline Simon).Editorial Foreword offers brief outlines.


Fanny Benedetti & John L.Washburn "Drafting the International Criminal Court Treaty: Two Years to Rome and an Afterword on the Rome Diplomatic Conference" Global Governance Vol.5/No.1(Jan/Mar 99):-pending book on subject, should constitute definitive diplomatic history of negotiation of what may well be seminal global treaty. Agreement to establish ICC legally significant as move towards acceptance of global rule of law. Moreover Court's role to punish perpetrators of globally-agreed-on heinous crimes if states do not take action may have substantial political influence on national/international behaviour. Even negotiations set precedents: e.g.direct/massive NGO participation; new voting alliances; tough tactics( "package" rather than consensus decision-making);willingness to isolate US(see Wedgwood op.cit.).Invaluable account of verycomplex UN processes.


A.LeRoy Bennett International Organizations: Principles and Issues(Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall 91):-mostly on UN. Focus is on its philosophy and principles, not structure; breakdown is by broad issue, not organization: League of Nations; Genesis of UN; Basic UN Principles, Organization; Basic UN Issues;Peaceful Dispute Settlement; Collective Security and the Alternatives; Justice Under Law; Regionalism; Arms Control; Transnationals and IOs; Economic Welfare; Global Resources and the Environment ; Social Progress; Human Rights/Self- Government; Administration/Leadership; the Future.


Samuel R.Berger"Foreign Policy for a Democratic President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3 (May/Jun 04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime, and needs/opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended) regime. Most issues discussed of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign entities, particularly NATO/UN/international law.This mentions those of global importance discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed styleand its gratuitous unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims, embittered even those abroad most likely to embrace US values. New US regime "no more urgent task than to restore...global moral and political authority, so when we decide to act we can persuade others to join us. Achievingreversal will require forging new strategic bargain with closest allies...Democratic approach to resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improving flawed agreements rather than ripping them up" .US policy towards Israel-Palestine conflict must return with energy/urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq," Bush administration's unilateralist approach has let allies off hook: given them excuse to shirk these and other global responsibilities. Democratic administration wouldnot be so dismissive of allies on issues that matter to them" since exercises truly international rather than exclusively US. Similar approaches are relevant to spread of weapons of mass destruction(WMD). " Democratic administration should use every tool at disposal to prevent WMD threats from arising before force becomes only option". Listed issues include Nunn- Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program with Russia, and "global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites". Others sites described are North Koreaand Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add "new bargain" helping non-nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.


Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.


Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book is often described as the greatest defense for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in economic policy orin the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled withthe pursuit of free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent into trade sanctions and restrictions. [H]e argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defense of Globalization"(Oxford Univ 04), offers a 300+pp broader approach.


Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia & J Alexander Thier“Defining Success in Afghanistan: What Can the United States [and NATO] Accept?”(48-60) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.4 (Jul/Aug 10):-official summary:“Since the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, the West has tried to build a strong centralized government in Afghanistan. But such an approach fits poorly with Afghanistan’s history and political culture. A range of alternative models are possible, of which the two most realistic and acceptable in terms of US security interests are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty”. Emphasized extracts:“The US will have to push for a more inclusive, flexible, and decentralized political arrangement”. “Centralized governance matches neither the real internal distribution of power in Afghanistan nor local notions of legitimacy”. Final sentence: “The perfect is probably not achievable in Afghanistan - but the acceptable can still be salvaged”. Biddle is Roger Hertog Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Thier is Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. For a selection of articles on Afghanistan from the Foreign Affairs archives, see the collection at www.foreignaffairs.com/collections/afghanistan.


Linda S.Bishai "Sovereignty and Minority Rights: Interrelations and Implications" Global Governance Vol.4/ No.2(Apr/Jun 98):-addresses growing global source of conflict and structural dilemma for UN. Basis:sovereignty generally treated as all-or-nothing legal concept. Shows that identifications with statehood/territory/total domestic authority -let alone with nationalism- have limited history, generating growingfrustration/separatist demands from minority groups and compete with globalization. But as EU shows "nations" can have "sovereignty" in all key cultural fields while being part of larger state for other purposes. Can this not be tried globally? If arguments of interest, "article argues that new conceptions of sovereignty should be directed toward nonterritorial aspects. Four parts to...argument. First explains zero-sum natureof territorial state and problems it poses for liberal multiculturalism. Second reviews various historical types of political community and dual emergence of modern theories of sovereignty/liberalism. Third reveals historical interrelatedness of conceptions of sovereignty and minority, and problem caused forinternational system. Last part discusses nature of indicated reconceptualizations of sovereignty/minorities, and prospective impact they may have on international institutions" .


Matthew Bishop "Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" The Economist 29 Jan 00 (1-22) :-SURVEY claims "globalization, accelerated by Internet, is exposing serious flaws in world's tax systems[even though]taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization "might damage tax systems so badly that it could'lead to governments beingunable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens for public services' " (5). Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens), plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes, while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possible reaction: global tax-harmonization agreements; more consumption/environment taxes.


Susan Blackmore The Meme Machine(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 99):-since Darwin's Origin of Speciesposited human evolution by natural means without metaphysical intervention, a heated debate has ensued over whether/how Homo sapiens is unique, e.g. by possessing a soul or free will. UN is affected, e.g. regarding technology, health care and law. This well-written book builds on many theories relating to concept of "memes" . Unique to Homo sapiens, like genes they are replicators but, unlike genes which replicate(copy) physical templates of parents in offspring, memes transmit words, ideas, beliefs and tastes, mainly byimitation, i.e. spread through peoples' activities. Author contends memes produced our large brains, language ability and altruism. Among less positive influences she includes sexual mores, myths(UFO, NDE, superstition, alternative medicine, religion(sic)). Soul/free-will are out.


Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions...increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus]other extreme/increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainablemanufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force]is good news, but...change/ambition required will be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/global policy must encourage development/commercial viability of new technologies that havepotential to mitigate effects of climate change...G8 can take global lead both in making world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8[also]opportunity to agree on what most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively with other countries' growing energy needs...to ensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seem inevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.


Davis B.Bobrow & Mark A.Boyer"International System Stability and American Decline" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.2 (Spring 98):-concludes relative decline of US power "has not led to prolonged across-the-board decrease in international efforts to maintain stability of international system" . "Muted optimism" from recent trends in foreign aid, debt relief, peace-keeping. Reveals crucial roles of states like Canada and institutionalized co-operative arrangements, to success of international initiatives. Meanwhile US policy tending toward an evolving, more specialized and narrowly focused activism in world. All developments direct relevance to UN aims/activities.


Max Boot"Pirates, Then and Now: How Piracy Was Defeated in the Past and Can Be Again"(94-107)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.4 (Jul/Aug 09):-official summary:"Piracy was rampant for centuries past - just as it is again today off the coast of East Africa. To combat present-day marauders, governments should look to the tactics used to defeat piracy in the past: a more active defense at sea and the pursuit of a political solution onshore". Emphasized extracts: "Nations such as England and France had looked on piracy as either a minor nuisance or, when directed against their enemies, a potentially useful tactic". "Oftentimes, rooting out pirates meant risking not only an international incident but also full-scale war". "The problem is twofold: a lack of legal authority and a lack of will to enforce what authority does exist". "[Q]uestion of how to try and process pirates closely related to problem of how to deal with terrorists". Boot:Jeane J.Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at Council on Foreign Relations; author of The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of [US] Power and War Made New Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History, 1500 to Today. Currently writing a history of guerrilla warfare.


Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/ No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.


John R.Bolton "The Global Prosecutors: Hunting War Criminals in the Name of Utopia" Foreign AffairsVol.78/No.1(Jan/Feb 99):-critical review takes issue with book views of Aryeh Neier, War Crimes: Brutality, Genocide, Terror and the Struggle for Justice(New York: Times Books, 1998); Martha Minow, Between Vengeance and Forgiveness: Facing History After Genocide and Mass Violence(Boston: Beacon Press, 98). Bolton opposes international law, claiming no existence, lacking a constitutional framework(Fassbender(op.cit.)claims UN Charter fills that role)and lacks "political accountability, ensured through popular controls on the creation, interpretation, and enforcement of laws" (158)(by these criteria most laws do not exist). But international negotiation, ICJ, Security Council and treaty-enforcement clauses all fulfill these functions. Bolton's most extreme arguments are that "binding international law will be well on the way toward the ultimate elimination of Treaty of Westphalia-style nation states" (162)rule of Constitution over all US treaties. Both positions are debated: see Ku and Weiss, Manasian, Ratner(op.cit.)on growing but not fatal sovereignty constraints, and Noyes/ABA(op.cit.): US treaty obligations. For point-by-point rebuttal: Richard Falk "A Barbaric View" (159-60)in Letters, May/Jun 99 issue.


Newton R.Bowles United Nations: Less is More? A Report on the Fifty-Third General Assembly: September-December 1998(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 99):-author is inter alia UNICEF Senior Advisor on Children/War/closely involved in UNGA/other UN meetings. Excellent report covers not only highlights of 98 UNGA but variety of related UN issues over year e.g. Security Council developments. Topics covered selectively but analytically:Overview; General Debate(tone/highlights);Globalization (dialogue/ business-liaison); ODA/FDI Resources;Human Rights/development/UN casualties; Humanitarian Intervention; Security Council(evolution);Conflict Prevention(education); Peacekeeping; Disarmament (new trends);Africa(war/ poverty); Crime(ICC/ Tribunals/terrorism/ drugs); NGOs/ Civil Society; UN Management/Funding.


Newton R. Bowles United Nations: Hedge or Taels? A Report on the Fifty-Fourth General Assembly: September-December 1999(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 00):-valuable impressions of tone/highlights of UNGA Regular Session/related developments, particularly in Security Council. Subject titles(and main points): World in 99(better prospects than 98; praise for UNSG/UNGA President; radical UNSG speech: humanitarian law before sovereignty(text: Annex 1);no UNSC reform but more open; progress on UN human rights and development role); General Debate(main value: networking/ stage-setting; main theme: massive human rights violence, armed conflict within states; major points of notable speeches);Human Security Issues(follow-up to "Agenda for Peace" particularly prevention; key: broad "international approach to poverty, human rights and social/economic development" (UNGA President Statement: Annex 2);UNSC renewed activism but no progress on membership or veto; special problems of Africa); HIV/AIDS(stress on Africa where death toll 10 times that of wars; Statement by UNAIDS Executive-Director: Annex 3); Conflict Prevention (improved early-warning/prevention strategies; seek social/economic root causes); Peacekeeping (major forcesin Kosovo, Sierra Leone, East Timor, DR Congo total well over 30,000 in 00(Operations in Annex 4);International Justice(international criminal law fairly controversial compared with civil law; Yugoslavia and Rwanda Tribunals started from scratch but improving; International Criminal Court: 30 Jun deadline will be met; current: new convention on terrorism financing, working on conventions re nuclear terrorism and comprehensive anti-terrorism; planning international conference and transnational crime convention; Disarmament(gloomy: START II stuck in Duma; CTBT refused by Congress; ABM may be weakened or ignored; Conference on Disarmament is paralysed; Special Assembly Session on Disarmament unlikely;NPT review conference also unlikely; Resolution on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space passed, but US resumed anti-missile tests; practical progress on implementing/ completing agreements on Chemical and Biological weapons, Landmines, Heavy Weapons register, Small Arms Trade; Development(of LDC needs-investment, markets, debt relief, only ODA is responsibility of UN proper(and aid is declining),but UN-Bank/Fund relations closer; North-South dialogue also less confrontational; "Agenda for Development" stresses good governance/ accountability/participation/social security; UNSG WTO speech(Annex 5) highlights LDCs' need to share globalization; 01 all-issue conference on financing development will bring in all stakeholders); UN Aid(of $50b annual ODA, $5b through UN and $5b World Bank; UN stresses social concerns/human development; UNDP major effort to coordinate multilateral aid better); Business and Labour(UNSG challenged big business at Davos to "Global Compact" to cooperate with UN on human rights/labour standards/environment; positive response from ICC; ICFTU also undertook to support); Humanitarian Activities(natural disasters cost $500b in 90s; armed conflicts cost $200b in external aid, so probably over $1 trillion overall; UN priority to avoid or mitigate natural disasters or conflicts);Human Rights(most humanitarian law written since WWII; much being added; all aspects of human (mis)behaviour come together at UN under human rights; UNSC adopted strong/comprehensive policy on protecting civilians(Annex 6); in Kosovo/East Timor, UN creating entire criminal justice and human rights systems; UNHCHR investigating standards in 21 fields worldwide); Women's Advancement(Special UNGA Session on Women(Jun 00)will examine implementation of Beijing Conference decisions; UNGA studied new report on role of women in development);Children(Tenth Anniversary of Convention on Rights of Child; UNSC resolution "strongly condemns targeting of children in situations of armed conflict" );Finance and Management(main focus again US budget arrears followed by highly-conditional part-payment; 00-01 biennium budget $2,535m, up a symbolic $3m; staff management still slow/cumbersome; excellent final report of 5-year "Internal Oversight" (quoted));Civil Societies(gets more into basic issues of development-globalization; UNSG for tripartite "Global Compact" :UN-business-civil society);(Annex7:Current Membership of UN Organs).


John Brademas & Fritz Heimann "Tackling International Corruption: No Longer Taboo" Foreign Affairs Vol.77 /No.5(Sep/Oct 98)(17-22):-two members of influential anti-corruption organization, Transparency International, report on activities underway globally to control governmental/private corruption. Progress results from the convergence of several trends: increased openness of government processes, greater media freedom, and more independent judiciaries, plus an awareness that corruption impedes both democracy and economic development. Recent multilateral events: 1997 Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials; 1996 ICC Rules of Conduct for business; new World Bank active concern with issue(op.cit).


Duane Bratt "Peace Over Justice: Developing a Framework for UN Peacekeeping Operations in Internal Conflicts" Global Governance Vol.5/No.1(Jan-Mar 99):-while UN's "purpose" is to "maintain international peace/security" ,many Charter references to human rights make clear second objective to improve political /economic/social justice. Priority and resource dilemmas arise when aims equally demanding or mutually exclusive, mainly in facing internal conflicts. Argues that, besides Charter ranking, obvious precedence of saving lives and doing most urgent first, means peace must have priority. Moreover, this reduces perception of UN "imperialism" and alien priorities as well as criticism UN forces "helping" one side by(aiding in)deliveringhumanitarian assistance or seizing war criminals. Still, agonizing global "triage" may be only solution to choosing among "peace" options.


Hans Gunter Brauch, Czeslaw Mesjasz & Bjorn Moller"Controlling Weapons in the Quest for Peace: Non-Offensive Defence, Arms Control, Disarmament, and Conversion"(15-53) in Chadwick F.Alger edit.The Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century (New York: United Nations Univ. Press 98):-while giving special emphasis to peace research, offers fine summary of disarmament/arms control history, concentrating on UN post-Cold War events. Some points made: UNGA has negotiated/ implemented most UN arms treaties(even UNSCOM's role in Iraqi derived from NPT); S-G's 1992 Report emphasized integration of arms regulation into peace/security agenda, globalization of disarmament process, further WMD reductions, more proliferation control, arms trade limitations, more transparency in arms and other CBMs; relative failure of conversion; several disarmament research proposals.


Christopher Bright "Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization" Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-essay summarizes Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton & Co 98). Bright claims: "World trade has become the primary driver of one of the most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of foreign, invasive species are hitch-hiking through the global trading network aboard ships, planes, and railroad cars...This' biological pollution'is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions" (50). Counter-policies largely ineffective, control mechanisms (UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes situation ever worse. Bright offers much information:animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda: control ballast release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).


Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past. Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Corespondent for New York Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.


Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the 300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines; Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison; Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos; New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.


William J.Broad & David E.Sanger "As Nuclear Secrets Emerge, More Are Suspected" New York Times 26 Dec 04:- extraordinary article, over six printed pages long, that contains so much fascinating material thatsummary is not feasible. Following material from item's beginning/end, however. "When experts from US and [UN's]International Atomic Energy Agency[IAEA]came upon blueprints for 10kiloton atomic bomb in files of Libyan weapons program earlier 04, they found themselves caught between gravity/pettiness.Discovery gave experts new appreciation of audacity of rogue nuclear network led by A.Q.Khan, a chiefarchitect of Pakistan's bomb. Intelligence officials had watched Dr. Khan for years and suspected he wastrafficking in machinery for enriching uranium to make fuel for warheads. But detailed design representednew level of danger, particularly since Libyans said he had thrown it in as deal-sweetener when he sold them $100 million in nuclear gear...Nearly a year after Dr. Khan's arrest, secrets of his nuclear black market continue to uncoil, revealing a vast global enterprise. But inquiry has been hampered by discordbetween Bush administration and nuclear watchdog[IAEA], and by Washington's concern that if it pushestoo hard for access to Dr. Khan, national hero in Pakistan, it could destabilize ally. As result, much of urgency has been sapped from investigation, helping keep hidden full dimensions of activities of Dr. Khanand his associates...Worried about what is still unknown, IAEA quietly setting up...Covert Nuclear Trade Analysis Unit, agency officials disclosed. It has about half dozen specialists looking for evidence of deals by Khan network or its imitators. "I would not be surprised to discover that some countries pocketed somecentrifuges," Dr ElBaradei[IAEA]. "They may have considered it a chance of a lifetime to get someequipment and thought,'Maybe...good for rainy day.'"


L.Anathea Brooks & Stacy D.VanDeveer edit. Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park: Maryland Sea Grant 97):-although focused on environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, book is not technical for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes broad/thoughtful look at every major aspect of environmentalism, using coastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, Nature (environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases); Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge (scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and Institutions(changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics);Approaching Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.


Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).


Robert Buckman Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.


Hedley Bull The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics(Second Edition) (Houndmills: Macmillan Press 95):-new edition of seminal work on state system surprisingly retains original 77 text. ItsUN-relevant aim was to determine whether system would/should survive -and alternatives. Concluded very little change was possible or needed. Interest today derives from how much of original argumentundercut by extraordinary changes of past 20 years, particularly constraints on state sovereignty by:globalization of information/ manufacture/ finance; new global imperatives/power centers/vacuums; novel capacities/threats. For firm support see Hoffmann(op.cit.).


Barry A.Burciul "UN Sanctions: Policy Options for Canada" Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1 (Fall 98):-thorough, global effort to improve sanctions, in response to tough facts:(1)sanctions rarely achieve ends, and often cause unnecessary pain;(2)serve as relatively cheap and risk-free ways to meet pressure for "action" ;(3)targeted sanctions often work better than comprehensive. Priorities: discourage sanctions ifmore constructive, humane alternatives exist; ensure strong/targeted; always consider innocent civilians.Ideas: wider range of threats, but sanctions high-cost, so need broad multilateral coalition plus regional/ NGO support; humane sanctions more effectively gain essential support; target states/persons must be fully understood, to avoid counterproductive action and find optimum means (travel, sports, culture ban, arms embargo, even violence); better as deterrent/preventive/threat than as coercion; "sanctions forum" studiesoptions/support/strategic planning using pooled intelligence to judge hot spots/time limits/temporarytariffs/lessons learned/finance levers; "humanitarian limits" must protect NGOs, determine and policeexemptions; enforcement must be rapid/specific/ coordinated/committed/informed, and include border surveys.


Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terrorshould have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).


Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".


Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted toal-Qaedismin its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceivedwar on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".


Mayra Buvinic & Andrew R.Morrison "Living in a More Violent World" Foreign Policy No.118 (Spring 00):-valuable survey of steeply rising global rate of combat-unrelated violence, its probable causes, likely trends, economic and social costs, and possible control policies. Average global homicide rates, naturally the most complete, and derived from a 34-country sample over various regions, rose from5.82/100,000 in 1980-84 to 8.86/100,000 in 1990-94, a more than 50% increase in a decade(OECD:15%; Latin America:80%; Arab world:112%). Limited victimization (assaults/threats)trends seem similar. Moreover rate of increase appears to be accelerating: latest rates include Latin America 23/100,000; sub-Saharan Africa 40/100,000, with Johannesburg 115/100,000. Causes include: aggressive cultures orupbringing; ineffective justice systems; high ratio in LDCs of persons 18-24(group most inclined to violence)perpetuated by reduced social inhibitions; high population density, anonymity, poverty and urban social disintegration; greater(awareness of)national/local income inequalities through globalization;media emphasis on violence or at least aggression; the increased quantity and availability of drugs and guns. Costs include: significantly lower economic growth through foregone investment, less tourism, reduced productivity, higher security/medical expenses. Policies include: prevention programs throughbetter and focused social care/policing/education, urban regeneration, handgun and alcohol controls. Above all, local initiatives.


Lucius Caflisch "Regulation of the Uses of International Waterways: The Contribution of the United Nations" (3-35)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work(Westport: Praeger 98):-Charterrequires UNGA "initiate studies and make recommendations for purpose of:..encouraging progressivedevelopment of international law and its codification." Much effective work done by expert 34-memberInternational Law Commission whose drafts passed to UNGA for decision. This greatly increased body of international law at time when need for it expanding. Describes in lay terms how newly explosive issue, "development, apportionment and use of water resources[and]one of world's major economic and social problems" handled in UN. Growing demand, hence rising competition for scarce resource made it delicate exercise.


Frances Cairncross "A Survey of E-Management: Inside the Machine" The Economist 11 Nov 00(1-40):-while aimed at business, text relevant to development, economics/finance/ jobs/education, globalization, government, HR, law, S&T, many UN roles. "Change has not only become more rapid, but also more complex and more ubiquitous" (5). Behind resulting uncertainty in all forms of management lies Internet/related technologies, whose evolution/impact only just starting. It offers new communications anddistribution channel, market place, information system, and tool for creating goods and services, all driven by dramatic falls in cost of handling/transmitting information. It produces "almost instant" andpossibly huge productivity gains, at minimal expense for hard- and soft-ware, but demands ten times that investment in new "organizational capital" .Survey analyses: internal communications; links with suppliers/sources and customers/consumers; organizational changes; good e-management. Last needs:1.Speed;2.Good People;3.Openness;4.Collaboration Skills;5.Discipline;6.Good Communications;7.Content-Management Skills;8.Customer Focus;9.Knowledge Management; 10.Leadership by Example.


Frances Cairncross "A Survey of Illegal Drugs: High Time" The Economist 28 Jul 01(1-16):- excellent report on global status, system and knowledge of illegal drugs. It makes strong case for their legalization, aimed mainly at current situation in US. In essence, drug industry consists of production, transport and sale of "simple agricultural extracts and chemical compounds... for astonishing prices[, which] directly reflect the ferocious efforts by the rich countries to suppress [them]". Effect is to create huge -and highly profitable- escalation from production to import to retail prices. Per kilo, farmers get $90 for opium and $610 for coca leaves. Import prices of resulting heroin and cocaine are about 10-15% of retail prices in rich countries, where heroin can sell for $290,000 and cocaine powder for $110,000 per kilo. Annual global tobacco sales total $204b; alcohol $252b; rough guesses of illegal drugs sales vary: $150b(author); $400b(UN)(3). Much material is derived from a major new study: Robert MacCoun & Peter Reuter Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times, and Places(Cambridge Univ. Press). Cairncross argues that, while not underestimating harm drug misuse can do to individuals and "moral fury drug-taking can arouse,.. outrage has turned out to be a poor basis for policy". In US, where anti-drug policy costs $35-40b a year, it has "eroded civil liberties, locked up unprecedented numbers of young blacks and Hispanics... corroded foreign policy [and] proved a dismal rerun of [Prohibition. Yet as US now] probably consume[s] more drugs per head... than most other countries[,its]experience demonstrates the awkward reality that there is little connection between the severity of a drugs policy... and prevalence of use... At the heart of the debate... lies a moral question: what duty does the state have to protect individual citizens from harming themselves?"(4/5). Here she supports John Stuart Mills' "On Liberty" :'Over himself, over his own body and mind, the individual is sovereign'. "So a first priority is to look for measures that reduce the harm drugs do, both to users and to society at large" (5). "Big Business" describes recent history and current structure of global drugs industry: where and how drugs originate, are processed, shipped, and sold and who is involved at various stages/places. In sum: "drugs industry is simple and profitable. Its simplicity makes it relatively easy to organize; its profitability makes it hard to stop. At every level, its pricing and its structure are shaped by the high level of risk from enforcement" (6). "Choose Your Poison" discusses who uses drugs and why. Most drug users live in the poor world (China, Pakistan, Colombia). Future growth will be concentrated in developing countries and former USSR. Markets with big money are in rich world - which also prefers drugs with fewest side-effects and least likely to cause addiction. Most drug users are "occasional dabblers", so a minority of users account for bulk of consumption. "Most drugs do not appear to be physically addictive" (including cannabis and amphetamines) but: "Heroin is a true addiction, with a recovery rate of 40-50%... With cocaine, the recovery rate is around 90%" (9). A third of US heroin users are dependent (80% of cigarette smokers are addicted). Idea that soft drugs lead on to hard drugs turns out to be nonsense. "The Harm Done" deals with drugs' negative effects on users and society. Abusing drugs wrecks many lives. For those dependent, pleasure -often their original motive- "consists mainly of avoiding the pain of giving up[; however, m]ost drug users ultimately stop when drugs no longer fit their lifestyle. [Also, with exception]of heroin, drugs contribute to far fewer deaths among... users than... nicotine or alcohol[, and c]onsuming a drug is rarely the only cause of death" (9)(dirty needles). Although drugs may affect brain activity (even cannabis might possibly do damage), The Lancet concludes:" It would be reasonable to judge cannabis less of a threat than tobacco or alcohol", while it could help treat nausea, appetite loss, pain and anxiety. Besides health problems, drugs have been linked to domestic violence, grogginess, bad driving, and much petty crime. Here government is right to intervene - but best way is not necessarily to ban drugs. "Stopping It" describes how governments try unsuccessfully to stop the flow of drugs. US Prohibition, though milder than its drug policies, foreshadowed many current problems. Most important, "the attempt to stamp out drugs has had effects more devastating than those of the drugs themselves" (10) - and on global stage. Because of vast profits, reflecting low costs/high prices, suppression of drug-growing in some regions simply shifts production/related problems, with little durable effect on supply. Even huge drug seizures do not affect prices, and essential corruption can be bought at all levels. Demand is also hard to reduce despite harsh penalties, because of popular cultures,huge numbers who want to buy, and desperation of addicts. "Collateral Damage" looks at varied indirect costs of criminalizing drugs. Among "victims": Law enforcement and legal system are at minimum distorted, with investigative and court standards lowered and at worst corrupted. Mere drug users jailed (US mandatory minimum: 5-10 years for possession of few grams of drugs) for usually harmless and (in Mill's sense) strictly personal acts. Many released dangerously scarred, drug-addicted and/or HIV-infected. Basic civil liberties and freedom from state intrusion are at minimum constrained. Education/social benefit/job impeding criminal records are branded on previously non-criminal and perhaps exemplary citizens. US rate of incarceration for drug offences (74% black) is totally at odds with the racial mix of drug users (13% black) because more blacks/Hispanics have to buy (vulnerably) on the street. Both huge US costs of drug enforcement and substantial drug taxes are unavailable for better purposes, while criminals/rogue states enjoy revenues of $80-100b a year. "Better Ways"probes various alternatives to enforcement for controlling drug use. Education is a possibility, but apparently has at best limited effect. For habitual drug users, "harm reduction" is more promising (methadone programs, needle-exchange centres, prescription heroin). Very successful Swiss program includes all three in its "heroin maintenance" clinics. These care for 1000 most problematic of 33,000 Swiss heroin addicts. Most are given anti-addictive heroin-substitute methadone, but most "chaotic" are initially given "pharmaceutical" heroin daily. They are not pushed towards abstinence since: "People can tolerate regular doses of heroin for long periods, but if they give up for a period and then start again, they run big risk of overdosing" (14). Of those who drop out of full "heroin maintenance", two-thirds move on to either methadone or abstinence. Even while still on heroin, most can get full-time jobs, end trouble with police, and hardly ever attempt suicide or contract HIV. Vast majority are also taking cocaine on first arrival (29%: daily) but after 18 months 93% take it never or only occasionally (there is no "methadone" for cocaine). Dutch "principle of expediency" aims to "separate the markets for illegal drugs to keep users of 'soft' ones away from dealers in the harder versions, and to avoid marginalising drug users" (14). While cannabis remains illegal, some "coffee shops" may sell small quantities under strict rules without prosecution. Both Swiss and Dutch governments want to legalize marijuana but restrain because UN convention prevents them from (formally) legalizing" possession of and trade in cannabis". US opinion is moving in same direction, and several states (plus Canada) already allow medical use of marijuana (73% of US supported this by 1999). "Set It Free" addresses issue of how best to decriminalize drugs if it is so decided. They would effectively be put on par with tobacco and alcohol, and both possession and trade would have to be legalised, but under systems which could reflect each drug's relative danger and with appropriate quality control. Number of users would inevitably rise. (1)Prices would certainly be lower (maybe much lower) since appropriate taxes could not be so high as to encourage smuggling and crime again. (2)Access to drugs would be easier and quality-assured. (3)Social stigma against use of drugs would diminish. (4)Might be strong commercialization with corresponding pressure to consume more. (5)Even with consumer age-limits, younger market is certain to grow. But "nobody knows quite what drives the demand for drugs"(16); it may respond most to price, to fashion, to social standards - or to local culture. Hence best to move slowly, thus building experience, and cautiously start with just marijuana and amphetamines. International cooperation is needed to "minimise drug tourism and smuggling" (UN role?). Hard drugs should be sold only through licenced outlets (pharmacies?). Above is well summarized in Editorial "The Case For Legislation" (11-12), although it makes "stronger case for principle" (John Stuart Mill) and terrible harm drug trade in doing in poor world. Finally it notes that good health and safety rules could be applied. Economist 25 Aug 01 Letters: "Legalising Drugs" (16-7):-includes number of reactions to above. Majority raise disagreement, but all are thoughtful and constructive.


Canadian Council on International Law and The Markland Group edit. Treaty Compliance: Some Concerns and Remedies(London: Kluwer Law International 98):-papers/recommendations from meeting on "Compliance Systems for Disarmament Treaties" held under editors' auspices, Toronto 95. Papers revised/expanded/updated. Essence of Recommendations: (A)Biological/ Chemical Weapons Treaties:(1)guidelines on limitations of defensive research; (2)CWC national penal legislation should also bind governments;(3)study whether mid-spectrum agents fit BWC or CWC;(4)UN Center for Disarmament should be able to tabulate/disseminate CBM data for BWC;(5)BWC scrutinize compliance reports after technical analysis;(6)citizen compliance concerns should be recognized;(7)BWC/CWC parties should disseminatetreaty obligations using NGO/foundations' help;(8)legal assistance treaties to combat anti-BWC/ CWC transnational conspiracies.(B)Nuclear Treaties:(1)IAEA should reinforce special inspections;(2)increase IAEA budget;(3)security assurances against WMD threat/use;(4)help involve public/science community inverification.(C) Humanitarian/Human Rights Treaties:(1)compliance/verification: be expert, automatically triggered, and respond to citizen/NGO/government information;(2)NGOs: participate fully in reviewconferences;(3)national legal regimes: ensure: treaty implementation; individuals/groups get effectiveaccess/redress; legal profession knows scope/ availability of international legal standards;(4)arms controltreaties: provide for NGO information; (5)compliance/ sanctions: use trade mechanisms, weapons producers, financial institutions;(6)effective dissemination of human rights/arms agreements: be monitored by independent global body. Papers' Essence: Kim S. Carter, Apply Humanitarian Law Compliance/Enforcement to Arms Treaties; James F. Keeley, Compliance and the NPT: Safeguards/Supply Controls; Christine Elwell,Trade/Environment Compliance Measures Enhance Conventional Arms Treaties(Landmines-UN Peacekeeping);Douglas Scott/A. Walter Dorn, CWC Compliance Regime-Summary/ Analysis; Nicholas A. Sims, Strengthen BWC/CWC Compliance Regimes.

 

Thomas Carothers, "The Rule of Law Revival" in Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.2 (Mar/Apr 1998). - the author notes that spreading the rule of law is enjoying great popularity because of its profound political, economic and social relationship to liberal democracy. Hence donor countries have made efforts to dispense the relevant aid. "Globally there has been a great deal of legal reform related to economic modernization and a moderate amount of law-related institutional reform, but little deep reform [of higher government levels]"(103).

 

Iain Carson, "A Survey of Air Travel: The Sky's the Limit" The Economist 10 Mar 01(1-23):-describing civil aviation's recent business history and likely trends, also offers considerable key up-to-date information regarding global role and critical future of a huge, world-shrinking industry. Current situation is strangely mixed: airline profits are substantial yet consumers pay 70% less per passenger mile than 20 years ago; revenue per seat declining by 2% a year, yet customer dissatisfaction has reached new peaks(demand exceeds infrastructure)! In 2000, passenger journeys by air exceeded 1.6b(9m 1945);40%of world-manufactured exports by value travelled by air. Omni-route air networks demand created global airline "alliances" that may soon consolidate into three or four. Meanwhile Internet can identify optimal routes, let consumers "shop around" to keep ticket prices competitive, and eliminate all "paper" forms;computers offer a satellite-based system of air traffic control, doubling its capacity. Major changes are also needed in the international legal regime regulating civil aviation(ICAO-IATA).


Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".


Michael Chertoff"The Responsibility to Contain: Protecting Sovereignty Under International Law" (130-147) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"A new framework of international law that confronts modern threats is long overdue. If it is to revive the legitimacy of international law, this order must be predicated on a new principle, under which individual states assume reciprocal obligations to contain transnational threats emerging from within their borders". Emphasized extracts:"Those who challenge the relevance of consent often treat 'sovereignty' as a pejorative term or an antiquated concept". "If US withdraws from international legal institutions to protect its national interests, everyone will lose". "The most serious threats to sovereignty today do not necessarily come from the official acts of other states". "International law has no business interfering with the US domestic system of justice". "States can no longer hide behind seventeenth-century concepts of sovereignty in world of twenty-first-century dangers". Chertoff: US Secretary of Homeland Security. Views expressed are his own.


Jarat Chopra edit. "Special Issue on Peace-Maintenance Operations" Global Governance Vol.4/ No.1 (Jan/Mar 98):- since Cold War end, UN has undertaken many peace-related operations of new complexity and scale(often called second-generation). Several(Bosnia/Rwanda/Somalia) deficient for multiple reasons(mandate/management/resources). Papers analyse peace- maintenance system where UN exercises(some)political authority to harmonize diplomatic/ humanitarian/military/other civil aspects of operations if local systems fail.Authority-Knight; Administration-Morphet; Humanitarianism-Donini; Law-Plunkett; Military-Cousens; Accepting Authority-Adibe.

 

Jarat Chopra, "United Nations Peace-Maintenance" (312-40)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work (Westport: Praeger 98):-more uniform/all-embracing case for idea of flexible UN multi-functional governance role than made in Global Governance(Jan/Mar 98)(Ibid.).Hedges "failed states" / "trusteeships" as politically sensitive terms, although many analysts suspect these may be toughest UN "peace/order/good government" challenges for 21st century, particularly in Africa. Surveys history of all UN "peace" operations, and concludes its greatest current problems weak orchestration of complex emergencies, and inclination to act as mediator when creation of order is first priority, followed by nurturing of stable democratic society. Kosovo(which post-dates writing)would seem more what Chopra has in mind, though with full UN political authority.

 

Jarat Chopra & Tanja Hohe "Participatory Intervention" Global Governance Vol.10/No.3(Jul-Sep 04):-both authors served in UN Transitional Administration in East Timor(UNTAET)and offer thoughtful ideas abouthow UN should optimally build/modify political systems in troubled/new states - a responsibility that isgrowing in UN numbers and importance globally. Experience with administration intervention in Cambodia, East Timor, Kosovo, Namibia, and Somalia has been imperfect, but educational as to how future responsibilities could be improved by more carefully considering what actually constitute the "front lines" - "the level of local administration. Here, Western-style paradigm of state building, which ispreoccupied with forming a national executive, legislature, and judiciary, confronts resilient traditional structures, socially legitimate powerholders, abusive warlords out to win, or coping mechanisms communities rely on under conflict conditions. Options for establishment or reconstruction of governing institutions seem stark: either reinforce status quo and build on it, further empowering the already strong;or replace altogether what exists with new administrative order. But there may be middle road." Essay analyses latter.

 

Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.

 

Jennifer Clapp, "The Privatization of Global Environmental Governance: ISO 14000 and the Developing World" Global Governance Vol.4/No.3 (Jul-Sep 1998):-several global trends are discussed: (1) the increasing number and recognition of voluntary codes of conduct for private firms and standard-setting bodies; (2) the additional mixed public-private systems for creating international rules and procedures; (3) the profoundimpact of such standards on international environmental law; and (4) the small LDC role in the process, despite its major implications for both LDC laws and trade. A study of the seminal International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 14000 series of environmental management standards serves to illustrate the above important trends.

 

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s),(un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

 

Walter J. Clemens, Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham orRevolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

 

Roger A.Coate edit.U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations(New York: Twentieth Century Fund 94):-fine essays on UN political/organizational problems and realistic proposals retain global value sinceissues remain relevant and/or reforms underway. Spiers proposes administrative/structural/peacemaking/ financial reforms. Coate urges inter-agency/intra-government coordination of UN system. Blechman looks at new intra-state conflict/ preventive action challenges. Graham surveys IAEA proliferation/enforcement needs. Abram urges enforcement of human rights/humanitarian law. Loescher examines new scale/originsof refugees/displaced persons. Gordenker discusses WHO role/problems. Sessions/Steever explore challenges/constraints on Commission on Sustainable Development. Leonard picks UN priorities: security/ economy/environment/humanitarian action/human rights.


Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic] prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".


Eliot A. Cohen, "History and the Hyperpower" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-vast US scope, in comparison with any other state or group of states, gives it both capacities and opposition of past major empires(e.g. Rome, Britain), but its global interests/roles are unique and controversial. Author contendswell worth while to compare US positions and potential with historical styles/events/problems. "Historicalanalogy making rounds of late is notion that US today is an empire that can and should be compared with imperial powers of past...Casual talk of Pax Americana...implies that US is following pattern of imperial dominance that holds precedents and lessons. Metaphor of empire merits neither angry rejection nor gleeful embrace. It instead deserves careful scrutiny, because imperial history contains analogies and parallels that bear critically on current US predicament."


Roberta Cohen & Francis M. Deng Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal Displacement (Washington: Brookings 98):-thorough, containing many sound proposals. Written by Deng as UNSG representative on internally displaced persons(IDP).Numbers are big and growing(20-25m IDPs vs 20m refugees)affecting multiple UN roles (humanitarian/human rights/development/ peace/sovereignty)and bodies(DMTS/ ECHA/ ERC/ IOM/ OCHA/ ODIHR(UNHQ)/ UNDP/ UNHCR/ UNICEF/UNIFEM/UNRWA/ WFP/ WHO). Sections : Global View; Legal issues; Institutional issues; NGOs (Red Cross/Voluntary Agencies Council/etc.); Regional Groups; some Strategies/ Proposals; IDP Guiding Principles. For excellent summary of book by authors see "Exodus Within Borders" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.4(Jul/Aug 98).


Roberta Cohen "The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement: An Innovation in International Standard Setting" Global Governance Vol.10/No.4(Oct.-Dec. 04):-includes how and why global concern about internally displaced persons(IDP) has developed, particularly since Cohen/Deng source of 98(op.cit.). "It was not until 90s that absence of international system for IDPs began to be noticed and more traditional notions of sovereignty questioned. One of vivid examples of change in attitude was new set of international standards to protect persons forcibly uprooted in their own countries - Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Introduced into UN Commission on Human Rights 98, they set forth rights of IDPs and obligations of governments/international community toward these populations...GPs recast sovereignty as form of national responsibility toward one's vulnerable populations with role provided for international community when governments did not have capacity/willingness to protect their uprooted populations. Although not legally binding instrument like treaty, GPs quickly gained substantial internationalacceptance/authority.[Article analyses] origin/development of GPs, reasons for growing international usage,validity of reservations about them, and question whether process that developed them truly constitutes turning point in standard setting reflecting greater role for NGO community in developing internationalnorms of conduct for states."


Leonard A. Cole, The Eleventh Plague: The Politics of Biological and Chemical Warfare(New York: W.H.Freeman 97):-three-way view of problems raised by biological and chemical weapons. Part I reports on US attitudes towards, and activities in, developing/controlling these weapons. Part II deals withpossession/use by Iraq, and varied psychological reactions of world opinion, Israelis, and Iranian/US troops. Part III completes fine account of agents/ techniques involved, physical effects, and latest users:terrorists. 96 report on major international proposals (BWC/CWC)to control such weapons notes thatWHO global disease-watch would help treaty verification.


Isobel Coleman"The Better Half: Helping Women Help the World"(126-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Nicholas D.Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn: Half the Sky:Oppression Into Opportunity for Women Worldwide (Knopf 09). Official summary:"Efforts to provide the world's women with economic and political power are more than just a worthy moral crusade: they represent perhaps the best strategy for pursuing development and stability across the globe. [The $27.95 HC 320pp. book] is an insightful and inspiring call to action". [The review is very persuasive.] Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. Her book Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East to be published by Random House this spring. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.


Isobel Coleman"The Global Glass Ceiling: Why Empowering Women Is Good for Business"(13-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.3 (May/Jun 10):-official summary:"It is now accepted wisdom that empowering women in the developing world is a catalyst for achieving a range of international development goals. It is time for multinational corporations to get on board: funding education for girls and incorporating women-owned firms into their supply chains are good for business". Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. She is author of Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East (Random House:HC$26.00). For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.


Norm Coleman "Kofi Annan Must Go" Wall Street Journal 01 Dec 04(COMMENTARY):-Senator Coleman is chairman of US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, member of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and a Minnesota Republican. Senate subcommittee of which he is chairman has beeninvestigating the UN oil-for-food program in Iraq which was intended 1996-2003 to enable Iraq to buy food and medicine in return for oil. Iraqi regime of the time is widely believed to have subverted the program on a huge scale to benefit Saddam Hussein. Hence Coleman blames Annan and calls for hisresignation. Warren Hoge "US, in Public Statement, Backs Annan in His UN Post" New York Times 10 Dec 04:-reports that US Ambassador John C. Danforth announced, on behalf of White House and State Department, that UN played a role in many areas of concern to US...and that Washington expected to work closely with Annan. Associated Press "Oil-For-Food Scandal May Harm UN Reforms" in NYT 10 Dec 04:-reports on several aspects of issue, including strong support of UN member states for Annan, but warns of unfortunate time clash with Annan's initiatives for critical UN reforms(see very vital "Annan" items).Economist 11 Dec 04 "The United Nations: Blaming Annan" (Edit.11):-emphasises that UNSG should not receive" the campaign of vilification being mounted against him by his detractors" since any judgementwould be premature. Moreover, "he is servant of his political masters. This general rule applied with aparticular vengeance in the oil-for-food program. UN set up a secretariat to manage the program, butmembers of UNSC maintained ultimate control. Every contract was scrutinised by committee of its 15 members. It was not Annan's fault that this committee became deadlocked." AP "Powell: U.N. on Track With Iraqi Support" in NYT 16 Dec 04:-both UN, as the most truly global institution, and its Secretary General Kofi Annan, have been receiving more than their chronic suspicion from recently re-elected US politicians. US' s Iraq policy unfortunately generates particular focus of disagreement. Secretary of State Colin Powell gives "understated praise...for preparations UN is making to support elections in Iraq, andUNSG Annan said world body will beef up its support if need be...Annan was also speaking on proposals to revamp UN and on US relations with world body in address to private Council on Foreign Relations." Warren Hoge "Secret Meeting, Clear Mission:'Rescue'U.N." NYT 03 Jan 05:-publicity on private gathering of senior pro-UN/UNSG Annan supporters generated some controversy, but was described by one participant as "to save Kofi and rescue UN" .Item covers issues/potential/improvements. Economist 08 Jan 05 "America and the United Nations:Kofi Creamed" (30-1):-reports[,without judging truth,]elements of US-conservatives' UN criticisms: Israel(op.cit.);Cuba (op.cit.);expense of funding(op.cit.),that from some viewpoints seems bent on shackling US power/spreading socialism; perceived UNSG feud over US invasion of Iraq(op.cit.); International Criminal Court(op.cit.); $64b oil-for-food program in Iraq(op.cit.). " Meanwhile, list of complaints against UN gets longer by day. There are US grumbles about[:]UN allegedmishandling of relief for tsunami disaster[;]wrangles...going on about UN's role in Darfur[;] charges ofrape/sexual abuse of children by UN peacekeepers in Congo[;]dispute over UN's unwillingness to providehelp for Iraqi special tribunal set up to try...Saddam Hussein...For a time it looked as if Bush administrationwould give[Norm Coleman op.cit.]campaign to unseat Annan its tacit support too. But it appears to have decided to back off. Weak UNSG at head of enfeebled UN might, after all, serve Bush's interests betterthan tougher one...Some 130 countries, including all members of EU, had already announced their full support...Annan has been taking steps to repair relations with Washington. He has already had what UN officials describe as' encouraging'meeting with Condoleezza Rice...He announced that Mark Malloch Brown, media savvy head of UNDP...is to take over as his chief of staff." Sharon Otterman "Q&A: The Oil-for-Food Scandal" Council on Foreign Relations 11 Jan 05:-provides at considerable length both history of survey program and much of information already available via organizations investigating its misuse by Saddam Hussein. These of course include a preliminary report by the UN Independent Inquiry Committeeled by Paul A. Volcker, former US Federal Reserve Chairman. Claudio Gatti "US Ignored Warning on Iraqi Oil Smuggling, UN Says" Financial Times 13 Jan 05:-provides unexpected information on the oil-for-food scandal. "Joint investigation by FT and Il Sole 24 Ore, Italian business daily, shows that single-largest andboldest smuggling operation in oil-for-food program was conducted with knowledge of US government." FT "UN Warned To Brace For Reform As Crisis Grows" in NYT 16 Jan 05:-contains number of UN reform essentials described by Malloch Brown in interview with FT. He warned UN" that there could be worse to come, and that its management would feel consequences from investigation into allegations of corruption in 'oil-for-food' program. [He]warned that it was no longer only institution's traditional, conservative criticsthat were calling for a shake-up...'It should be mainstream preoccupation of every government shareholder of UN.'[There]would be a comprehensive report in March by Annan on saving international security system, making development work, and reforming UN to make that happen." Judith Miller "Annan Planning Deep Changes in U.N. Structure, Aide Says" NYT 17 Jan 05:-also quotes Malloch Brown onnecessary UN reforms and report that UNSG "trying to embark on series of changes in how organization is organized/does business...'UN must win back trust of US public and world public opinion'.[C]hangeswere likely to include deeper reshuffling of Annan's senior management team, changes in internal rulesand procedures aimed at diminishing secrecy and enhancing accountability. Structural changes would also be geared toward helping[UN]respond faster and more openly to crises." Many reports by otherexperts on UN, and US views. Economist 02 Apr 05"The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Torturing the United Nations"(Edit.12-3); The Oil-For-Food Scandal: Kofi, Kojo and a Lot of Shredded Documents"(29-30):-Editorial argues that:"Something rotten happened. But wait for all the facts before demanding Kofi Annan's head... Neither of Volcker's [interim]reports to date makes clear case against Annan himself... In short, [there is evidence] Annan has been a weak manager - even if, which remains to be proven, his ethics are as pure as snow... But UN is not a company. Ultimate power rests with member states, not a chief executive with a licence to issue whatever orders he likes. In the case of [oil-for-food scandal,] there is especially strong argument for reserving final judgment until Volcker issues final report... [T]hisprogram was set up and run closely by UNSC itself [and] Volcker has yet to pronounce on how much blame lies with Annan and how much with his political masters... Better to wait a few months until Volcker report is complete". Other article discusses key contents and effects of the Volcker committee's second interim report, just issued. Main points relate to possible misdeeds/profits of UNSG Kofi Annan's son Kojo, employed by Swiss firm Cotecna, and Iqbal Riza, UNSG's former chief-of-staff. Result is thatAnnan fails to receive the full exoneration he wanted. "[H]is reputation has been besmirched, his credibility undermined and his moral authority badly eroded". Economist 13 Aug 05"The United Nations: A Nasty Smell"(26-7):-material on this subject has been massive over the past several months, but most has not been critical of UNSG Annan or even of "crooked UN personnel". As consequence I have collected copies of all relevant oil-for-food items and mounted them in order together. If I have time, I will list all their titles/dates/publications in another new file in the RECENT DEVELOPMENTS section. Situation may now have become serious for UNSG since 13 Aug article states: "According to the investigation, which was led by Paul Volcker, a former chairman of US Federal Reserve, Benon Sevan, head of the oil-for-food program, 'corruptly benefited'from $150,000 in kickbacks from a friend's oil company. Report also alleges that a Russian in UN's procurement division, Alexander Yakovlev, solicited bribes to help an inspection contractor win a bid. Yakovlev has pleaded guilty, but Sevan has denied any wrongdoing. The oil-for-food scandal has been rumbling on pretty much since Saddam Hussein was deposed. This isfirst time that Volcker's commission, which was set up by [UNSG] Annan, has claimed unambiguously that UN officials have been on the take. US conservatives have seized on it as proof that UN is mismanaged". Rest of article deals with UN reforms being discussed.


Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.


Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.


Commonwealth Consultative Group on the Special Needs of Small States, Vulnerability: Small States in Global Society(London: Commonwealth Secretariat Pubs. 85):-UN now includes many small and indeed micro-states(latter having populations of less than 100,000).Almost any UN additions likely to be small in population and/or power, particularly if "Wilsonian" dictum strictly followed: that all "nations" have right to self-determination. Report by global group of senior personalities one of few authoritative sources focusing specifically on particular security problems of such states. It makes almost 80 realistic recommendations; large number involving UN System.


Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future". Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.


James Cooper"Child Labour: Legal Regimes, Market Pressures and the Search for Meaningful Solutions"and John English"'Imitating the Cries of Little Children': Exploitative Child Labour and the Growth of Children's Rights"International Journal Vol.LII/ No.3(Summer 97):-paired articles, while advocating different approaches to this complex problem - and one that can be locally very controversial, agree it must be met globally and positively, including through UNGA, ILO, WTO, UNICEF. For a specific example of where pressure to end child labour locally (making soccer balls in Pakistan)was successful, but created a number of economic side effects, see The Economist 08 Apr 00"After the Children Went to School"(72-3).

 

Jeff J. Corntassel and Tomas Hopkins Primeau, "The Paradox of Indigenous Identity: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach" in Global Governance Vol.4/No.2 (Apr-Jun 1998). -the essay examines an issue with UN implications through the UN Working Group on Indigenous Populations. The group is drafting a Universal Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples for the UNGA. The draft claims the right to self-identification, which the essay defines as: "the right of both individuals and groups to identify...their indigenous identity independent of authorization by any...institution" (139). The control of indigenous identity exists at the state, group and individual levels; but free self-identification at the global level (through the WGIP draft) allows for a high potential number of "free-riders". The indigenous peoples must regulate this through their own global body, preferably outside the UN.

 

Robert Cottrell, "A Work in Progress: A Survey of Europe" The Economist 23 Oct 99(1-18):-key trends inera of rapid globalization include:(1)increasing constraints on economic, financial, cultural autonomy of nation-states; (2)growing intrusions into traditionally absolute domestic sovereignty, under security/human rights pressures; (3)institutional means by which state of international anarchy being perceptibly contained. Since Europe has moved furthest/most deliberately in following all three, this general, non-technical survey of main challenges facing European Union and their likely outcomes, has immense global relevance. After setting scene historically, survey discusses in turn "five recent fundamental shifts in structure of post-war Europe and its international relations" :(1)inversion of Franco-German balance in favour of Germany;(2)emergence of strong sense leading EU countries should have capacity for collective military action separable from NATO/US;(3)introduction of new common currency;(4)replacement of power ofEurocrats by Councils directly representing national governments;(5)planned EU enlargement.

 

Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of purpose/confidence in itself."

 

A. W. Cragg, "Business, Globalization, and the Logic and Ethics of Corruption" International JournalVol.LIII/No.4 (Autumn 1998):-this essay focuses on the corrosive ethics of corruption, a subject of direct concern to UN global activities. In addition, it specifically identifies a large number of very practical economic and administrative disadvantages for both businesses and governments in condoning bribery, "but only in Third World countries where it is part of the local milieu" . The widespread assumptions: (1)that there is little or no corruption within industrialized countries; (2)that much of the Third World must or can "live by" corruption; and (3)it is possible for MNCs to ensure that their employees can limit their corruption to their activities abroad "in self defence" , are wrong and pernicious.

 

Tim Creery edit. "Human Rights:How Can Canada Make a Difference?" Report of Conference on Canada's Foreign Policy by the Group of 78, Cantley, Quebec: 25-7 Sep 98:-contains keynote speech by Warren Allmand, President, International Centre for Human Rights and Democratic Development(particular emphasis on decision to establish International Criminal Court); discussions on Canada's Roles in Protection of Civil and Political Rights(through UN and OAS)and of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights(through trade and development assistance); summaries of Discussion Groups on Constructive Engagement or Confrontation towards Burma, China, Cuba, Nigeria, and former Yugoslavia; and summaries of statements on Rights of Indigenous Peoples and official views on Progress and Challenges in Human Rights. Report also contains: Introduction, Summary, Conclusions and Proposals.

 

Barbara Crossette," A New Index Tracks Bribe-Paying Countries" New York Times 27 Oct 99:-Transparency International, which tracks corruption among government officials globally, has just issued its first Bribe Payers Index(BPI) to balance its Corruption Perceptions Index(CPI). The BPI responds to criticism that CPI implied corruption is only a Third World problem, whereas there must be a conspiracy of corruption between a bribe taker and giver. The BPI ranks nations that appear to condone the paying of bribes by their companies doing business abroad. China is perceived as the worst, followed by South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and Malaysia; the best are Sweden, Australia and Canada. The CPI's estimate of numbers of bribe-taking officialssaw those in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the former Soviet bloc as the worst, with Denmark as the best. "Concerns about corruption are finally becoming part of policy-making" , and aid granting.

 

Barbara Crossette "World Court Chief Faults U.S.Over Its U.N.Dues" New York Times 31 Oct 99:-maybemost stinging rebuke to US for ignoring its treaty obligation to pay UN dues comes from authoritativeAmerican, President of International Court of Justice, Stephen M.Schwebel. Member since 81, Justice has "watched new body and practice of international law evolve" ;supports formation of International Criminal Court;very conscious US took lead obtaining Court's ruling peacekeeping operations bills legally binding. Confirming "no question" of US legal obligation to pay past assessments owes UN, he also argued "Hard to see rational basis for US actions. Other governments baffled at such self-destructivepolicy...International law bound up with increasing integration of international life" .

 

Barbara Crossette "A U.N. Watchdog Exits to Applause" New York Times 15 Nov 99:-reports very successfulcompletion 5-year term by first head UN Office of Internal Oversight Services. Karl Theodor Paschke, former personnel/ management chief, German Foreign Ministry, appointed USG level as watchdog to fight corruption/mismanagement. Expanded auditing throughout UN/sent inspectors around world/uncovered dollars millions in fraud/abuse. UN now dismisses employees quickly/losses recovered/criminal cases to trial/Annan's management reforms working. Predictably, Paschke praised by US Congress but criticized by some developing nations for coming from rich country, and some major reports blocked. Concluded: UN'sfaults similar to those in other big bureaucracies, even though faces unique challenges(e.g. inpeacekeeping/emergency relief operations/global procurement, where corruption worst).

 

Barbara Crossette "U.N. Studies How Refugees Qualify to Get Assistance" New York Times 14 Jan 00:-UNSC debate on what Roberta Cohen(Masses in Flight op.cit.)called "absurdity" ;Brookings: "one of most pressing humanitarian, human rights and political issues now facing global community" . Most of 20m+ internally displaced persons(IDPs) ineligible to receive UN assistance simply because not(yet)crossed border out of own country. Many forced from homes(often by own governments who prefer world excluded);most in more danger/distress than those able to reach border; some interspersed with/indistinguishable from "recognized" refugees; often far outnumber latter(Angola: 1-2m to 370,000).UNHCR Ogata stressed how inherent IDP geographic/political/security problems made worse byWWII-vintage definitions. UNSC supportive of new rules/arrangements for new conditions, with UNHCR in charge.

 

Barbara Crossette "Advocates for Children Joining U.N. Peacekeeping Missions" New York Times 18 Feb 00:-for first time, UN will assign full-time children's advocates to top operational staff abroad of all peacekeeping missions. Announced by Olara A.Otunnu, Special Representative of SG for Children and Armed Conflict. First advocate assigned for Sierra Leone where atrocities against(and by)children have been particularly serious, and two will be assigned to UN force in Congo, so far all from UNICEF. Otunnu explained:" For protection and welfare of children to be taken seriously, and not be marginalized, we must have[advocates]within central political structure" .Will advise Mission heads, coordinate all child assistance groups, determine necessary programs for children and(since civil war combatants may ignore Conventions)also mobilize public opinion.

 

Barbara Crossette "The U.N.'s Unhappy Lot: Perilous Police Duties Multiplying" New York Times 22 Feb 00:-describes challenge facing UN in finding/managing very large number of police officers demanded by new peacekeeping duties and dangers.(For history of UN police activities, see Oakley op.cit.)UNPeacekeeping Operations' total staff of 400 must find/deploy nearly 9,000 specially qualified officersimmediately(almost 5,000 for Kosovo, 2000+for Bosnia, 1,640 for East Timor).For first time, UN police in Kosovo/East Timor have direct executive law enforcement powers and in Kosovo will be armed. Less than half Kosovo force has arrived(and some returned as unqualified).Thus in assuming responsibility for law and order, UN police activities not only grown but become more varied/complex/delicate/ hazardous. Many are worried that current assignments will exceed UN capacity.

 

Barbara Crossette "U.S. Report Says the U.N. Has Improved With Changes" New York Times 29 May 00:-summarizes "surprisingly positive report on...UN" written by US General Accounting Office for Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Criticisms of UN by committee have been "frequent and shrill" and it playedmajor role in US' ignoring its legally-binding UN debts, and unilaterally demanding SG/Secretariat implement wide range of political reforms (Helms, Speech op.cit.).Yet GAO concludes SG Annan made "considerable strides in improving[UN]management" , and clearly "differentiates between reform goals[SG/Secretariat]can meet alone and those that are dependent on decisions of 188 member nations" .Moreover, GAO notes, "where there are serious failures or lags in putting changes into practice...shortcomings often related to fuzzy instructions from[UNGA,]...20% in each year[being]too open-ended or vague to determine what objectives[SG]expected to accomplish" -often reflecting political compromises. SG is credited with improving coordination and appointing chief operating officer, who in turn established standard code of conduct. While UN peace operations now reflect unified policy and integrated planning, overall UN capacity "to manage, logistically support and respond to rapid changes in...demand" have not been addressed because "organization, under severe financial handicaps and with demands on it multiplying, does not have capability to manage scope and scale of activity." Full text of report can be obtained via GAO home page: www.gao.gov.

 

Barbara Crossette, "U.N. Warns That Trafficking in Human Beings Is Growing" New York Times 25 Jun 00:-DG of UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention claims that trade in people is "fastest growing criminal market in ...world because of...number of people...involved,..scale of profits being generated for criminal organizations - and...its multifold nature. We don't have just sexual exploitation. We don't have just economic slavery[forced labor and debt enslavement]. We have also a lot of exploitation of migrants. And we have classic slavery. If you put all this together...you get the biggest violation of human rights in[world. R]eliable estimates indicate that 200m people may now be in some way under the sway or in the hands of traffickers of various kinds." UN urges possibly giving temporary residence to would-be immigrants who assist in identifying criminals and reintroduction of anti-slavery laws. Economist 24 Jun "Drugs and Slavery in Myanmar" (48):-according to ILO, many of 1m Burmese refugees along Thai border reportincreasing reliance on slavery by Myanmar regime. While ceasefires have been arranged with most ethnic rebel groups, military keeps control only by "using slaves to build defences, roads and bridges. Locals are forced to clear land, act as porters for the army and provide housing. Refugees claim that forced labourers are even made to march along[mined]roads...800,000 or so people...thought[by ILO]to beexploited in this way" . Roger Cohen, "Europe Tries to Turn a Tide of Migrants Chasing Dreams" NYT 02 Jul:-motivated by death of 58 Chinese illegal immigrants in truck container in Dover, England, this article explains how and why EU has replaced North America as the principal destination of asylum-seekers(and unnumbered illegal immigrants). In 1999 30,000 people applied for asylum in US(compared with 127,000 in 1993), while more than 365,000 sought asylum in EU. Main change has been collapse of USSR, opening up of new land routes to Europe from Asia. Moreover "increasingly well-organized criminal groups...have emerged to coordinate smuggled passages into Europe largely closed to legal immigration" . Also: "[P]enaltiesare far less severe than for drugs, the up-front investment much smaller, and the evidence has legs and tends to run away" explains DG of International Organization for Migration. Finally, Europe is relatively cheap to reach illegally - from China about half cost of transport to US. Economist 24 Jun "The Last Frontier" (63-4)adds that about 30m people are smuggled across international borders every year(up to 500,000 into EU; 300,000 into US). This trade is worth $12-30b, most world traffic being handled by about 50 specialized gangs. UK Immigration concludes: "[G]angs have infrastructures, communications and surveillancecapabilities far in excess of anything that...law enforcement agencies in transit and source countries can muster, and...chances of their activities diminishing is negligible" . Elisabeth Rosenthal, "Chinese Town's Main Export: Its Young Men" NYT 26 Jun:-gives detailed firsthand description of how 80% of 20-40 year oldmen of one town, by working illegally in US, have made it very prosperous, although full of "widows" .

 

Wendy Cukier, "International Fire/Small Arms Control" (73-90)Canadian Foreign Policy Vol.6/No.1(Fall 98):-describes close links between firearms control as element of domestic crime prevention and growing body of international small arms controls, and urges more cooperation. Common strategy should include:conflict prevention/peace building; disarmament; injury prevention, safety and health promotion; crime prevention/security. After providing statistics on global/national threat posed by small arms, essay describesdifferent perspectives on intervention to prevent casualties. Then discusses data collection/surveillance;sources of firearms/small arms; various methods of controlling supply(limits on access; controls on manufacture/sales/transfers; removal from circulation by amnesties/ buy-backs). "Multi-layered, comprehensive[diversified]approach is essential" .

 

Tobias Debiel, "Strengthening the UN as an Effective World Authority: Cooperative Security Versus Hegemonic Crisis Management" Global Governance Vol.6/No.1(Jan/Mar 00):-neither as academic or utopian as title might suggest, looks at very practical/pertinent issue of what UN can and should do to be more effective in peacekeeping and crisis prevention roles. Such roles increase in importance as consensus develops: national sovereignty may be curtailed in exceptional humanitarian circumstances. Argued: world, unready for legally-bound multilateralism, and widely opposed to superpower-driven coercion,must turn to cooperative security - willing collaboration of all types of bodies: interest groups/relevantstates/regional organizations. Core element UN must create "standby capacities for early warning/conflict management/peacekeeping; reform of non-military sanctions instrument; and speedy institution ofinternational criminal court" (39).

 

Louis A.Delvoie "The Kosovo War: A Long Catalogue of Losers" Behind the HeadlinesVol.57/No.2,3(Winter/Spring 00):-NATO's 99 air campaign against rump "Yugoslavia" has had many supporters and critics. Former mainly argue that it succeeded in noble humanitarian aim of relieving Kosovars from Serbian oppression; latter argue force was itself wrong and/or stress absence of UNimprimatur. Author seeks those involved that were net losers in conflict. NATO: hurt itsimage/reputation/future effectiveness by launching war of aggression, ending its credibility as purely defensive alliance; United Nations: sidelined/marginalized, lost any post-Gulf hope it might play its Charter peace/ security role; OSCE: reputation/credibility suffered when its 1,300 Observers had to withdraw hastily when many of OSCE members attacked state where they were to keep peace; Kosovars:NATO's "beneficiaries" suffered hundreds dead and thousands displaced before bombing, but thousandsdead, hundreds of thousands displaced once two deterrents(OSCE plus threat to bomb)ceased to restrain;Serbs: suffered "collateral" casualties, food/water shortages as infrastructure hit, and vast long-term economic loss from bombing/sanctions; Balkan Stability: lost in refugee floods, revived ethnic tension; "New European Security Architecture" :Russia reacted with anger/ condemnation, needing muchtime/effort to defuse; US: lost in stature/credibility e.g. through sudden change in KLA image, public policy it would not risk ground troops, ominous intelligence error on Chinese Embassy; Western Governments: caught with double standards over Serbia/Chechnya. Many lessons to be learned.

 

Francis M. Deng, "Dealing with the Displaced: A Challenge to the International Community"in Global Governance Vol.1/No.1(Winter 1995)- one of the best short descriptions of the complex legal and political implications of the growing and mass demand for migration. This expanding and ultimately economic crisis should ideally be studied in a globally coordinated (and humane?) manner, in part using UN forums.

 

Anthony DePalma "The'Slippery Slope'of Patenting Farmers' Crops" New York Times 24 May 00:-as noted elsewhere, much of controversy over genetically modified organisms(GMO)derives from their high costs in R&D and consequent concern of biotechnology companies to ensure "adequate returns" through patents(or intellectual property rights(IPRs); see Paarlberg)relating to their products. Most infamous patent defenses were "terminator genes" in cereal seeds that could not reproduce, and thus prevented re-seeding(Economist 9 Oct 99).This ensured annual seed purchases -and prohibitive costs in Third World. DePalma reports CIMMYT, Green Revolution's famous non-profit International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico, though founded to make high-yield products available free to Third World,has had to start patenting its work as defensive tactic to block attempts by others to patent its discoveries and thus keep small farmers from using them. Before companies/countries contribute to CIMMYT's research, they also require patents in own self-defense. Consolation: reproductive genes will be included in seeds distributed in Third World. Another GMO patent-related development reported in DePalma/Simon Romero "Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets, and Brazil May Be Next" NYT 16 May. US, Brazil, Argentinatogether grow 80% of world's 157m tonnes of soybeans annually, but have different rules for GMvarieties. In US several conditions must be met: for Monsanto, farmers pay fee for each bag of seed, agree not to save seed for following year ( "terminator" seeds were dropped after outcry)and accept inspections if claim to have stopped using seed. In Argentina, where perhaps 90% of soybean crop genetically altered, but its patents not recognized, effectively no rules. In Brazil, use of altered varieties not(yet)legal, but clearly smuggled in; to 30% of soybeans may already be uncontrolled GMO. "Global regulatory mechanism" obviously needed. Meanwhile, US regulations tightened further. Associated Press reported 03 May "F.D.A. Announces New Steps for Regulation of Biotech Food" according to which US Food and Drug Administration will require biotech companies to notify it at least four months before releasing "new genetically engineered ingredients for food and animal feed" and to provide their research data. FDA will also set" truthful and informative" standards for food processors wanting to label products made with/without such ingredients. Also, mainly response to new consumer concerns, North American retailfood industry/exporters facing novel problems in separating out GM products, because of explosive increase in use/saving. Some major food companies stopped sales of selected GM-based products,according to David Barboza in "Modified Foods Put Companies in a Quandary" NYT 03 Jun. However none has found it feasible to abandon biotech ingredients entirely, since about 70% of US grocery-store food may have been made with genetically altered crops. Related dilemma arisen in Europe. Donald G. McNeil Jr. "Anxiety on Genetically Altered Seed Spreads in Europe" NYT 20 May, reports on divergent reactionsof British, French, Swedish governments on discovering tiny amount in one seed variety in order of long-planted Canadian canola had inadvertently carried genetically-modified trait.


Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.


John Deutch, Harold Brown, and John P. White, "National Missile Defense: Is There Another Way?" Foreign Policy No.119(Summer 00):-three top defense politicians believe some NMD system "critical" to US future homeland defense, but initial system as planned is not best approach as it fails to address several threatsfaced. Propose building on theater missile defense(TMD)systems already under development against intermediate-range ballistic missiles since:(1)more balanced way to address varied missile threats;(2)offersboth technical/cost advantages; (3)more responsive to concerns of Russia, China, many USallies;(4)eases process of modifying ABM Treaty. Rationale:(1)ICBMs hardly most likely threat to US;theater missile threat particularly urgent;(2)present NMD program pursues too many options; driven byschedules rather than events; artificially separates NMD from TMD when latter can be upgraded(boost-phase)at less cost;(3)US must start budgeting against cruise missile or aircraft attack, and spend more onsurreptitious terrorist attacks;(4)impact on relations with Russia, China, allies of deploying NMD as planned likely severe. TMD would not violate ABM or threaten Russia and, if sea-based off DPRK, threaten China less. For(pro/con)LETTERS regarding article, see Foreign Policy Sep/Oct 00(new format/bimonthly).

 

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".


Larry Diamond Promoting Democracy: Actors and Instruments, Issues and Imperatives (Washington: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict 95):-report to Commission describesorganizations(including UN), activities, techniques and limitations, all of which help to promote democracy's worldwide spread and support.


Larry Diamond"The Democratic Rollback: The Resurgence of the Predatory State"(36-48) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "After decades of historic gains, the world has slipped into a democratic recession. Predatory states are on the rise, threatening both nascent and established democracies throughout the world. But this trend can be reversed with the development of good governance and strict accountability, and the help of conditional aid from the West". Author is Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution and Co-Editor of Journal of Democracy. Essay is adapted from his new book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (Times Books 08).


Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/ objective look at globalized world production, trade, financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies, individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history, nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment; different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, serviceindustries; effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.


David Dollar & Lant Pritchett Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-this World Bank Policy Research Report described by The Economist 14 Nov 98(88)as henceforth "the book on foreign aid." Drawing on new research material/long-term surveys, ODA has been "highly effective, totally ineffective, and everything in between" (2).Secret is good governance(for instance in state rebuilding):(1)financial aid really works only in good policy environment;(2)truly wanted improvements in Third World economic institutions/policies key to "quantum leap" in poverty reduction;(3)aid can then complement FDI;(4)value of aid is knowledge that strengthens good policy(most financefungible);(5)active civil society helps lot;(6)in most distorted environments, donors should focus on good advice(particularly to any reformers), not money - presumably extremely important in failed or post-conflict states. Best aid investment is very poor but well-managed countries(India).


Paul Doremus et al. The Myth of the Global Corporation(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press 98):- tests structural and strategic convergence of MNCs(US/Germany/Japan). It finds "enduring diversity...in corporate governance...long-term..financing...national innovation and investment systems" (138). MNCs do most R&D at home; major differences exist in composition and technical activities of foreign affiliates. FDI and intrafirm trade practices consistently diverge. Hence "national institutions and ideologies shape corporate structure" (139)and policies, in spite of increasing global openness and integration. MNCs "createno automatic...mechanisms for regime formation" (145). As domestic power shifts, it may be concentrated globally. "Given scope, nationalist tendencies inherent in[economic]policies that governments...pursue could become more...dangerous" (148).More effective commercial diplomacy(WTO)required.


A.Walter Dorn edit. World Order for a New Millennium: Political, Cultural and Spiritual Approaches to Building Peace(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-selected conference statements with diverse speakers, sochapters vary by viewpoint/ideals, plus topic.Part I.Political and Institutional Approaches:Evolution ofWorld Order(conceptions (Anatol Rapoport);international law history;disarmament compliance;corporatecapitalism and/or market socialism; order by trade/investment decree);Military(Cold War nuclear mishaps;decline of major wars;Third World militarization); United Nations(world challenges(text inINTRODUCTION, with "institutional" material added); recent UN environment agreements; monitoring UN enforcement(UNSCOM); International Criminal Court; realistic UN reforms). Part II.Cultural and Spiritual Approaches: Developing a Culture of Peace(coordinating official/non-official diplomacy;civil society platforms; relevant UNESCO appeals;education of ethics);Spiritual Dimensions(2 Christian views, Jewishview, 2 Buddhist views, First Nations view, syncretistic view, Baha'i view, UN role). Declaration.


Margaret P.Doxey International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective: Second Edition(London: Macmillan Press 96):-definitive guide to non-military sanctions. Describes/assesses all major cases since WWI:Italy(1935), Yugoslavia(by USSR),Cuba, Rhodesia, South Africa, Egypt(by Arab League),Iran, USSR(re Afghanistan/Poland), Argentina, Iraq, Yugoslavia/Serbia, Libya, Haiti. Includes: definition, history, types(political, cultural-communications, economic);contexts, frameworks, intentions; costs and burden-sharing;implementation; impact on targets(their vulnerability and response);UN problem areas:(a)decisions to impose/remove;(b)sharing of cost and collateral damage; (c) problems of coordination, monitoring and policing.


Margaret P.Doxey United Nations Sanctions: Current Policy Issues: Revised Edition(Halifax: Dalhousie Univ. 99):-containing information up to Apr 99. Appendix offers basic facts about all sanctions imposed under UN Charter(Chap. VII).Text examines four issues subject to debate:(1)Domestic economic costs of sanctions to "sending" states and prospects for burden-sharing. Options: financial help; tariff adjustments;technical/humanitarian assistance; specific help on sanctions enforcement.(2)Mitigation on humanitarian grounds of sanctions-induced hardships in "targets" . Ideally, punishment fits crime but scope for: improving ways to determine need; handling humanitarian exemptions; avoiding abuse through monitoring.(3)Determining scope for direct targeting of leaders and elite groups. Types of targeted sanctions: personal travel restrictions; limit/end international bodies' membership(privileges); limit air links; cultural/sportsboycotts; financial sanctions(freezing assets)-most promising, but speed/information/selection/discipline critical.(4)Improved administration/enforcement. Much effort underway to improve work of Sanctions Committees; humanitarian issues handled better, but to detect/control serious violations of sanctions regimes still strictly limited.


Margaret P.Doxey"Sanctions Through the Looking Glass: The Spectrum of Goals and Achievements" International Journal Vol.LV/No.2(Spring 00):-expert, realistic look at recent UN experience with sanctions, and at current thinking on how they could be improved. (All Chapter VII sanctions to Jan 00 are listed.)Security Council use of sanctions has increased greatly since 1990(earlier it approved only two: Rhodesia, South Africa); hence study of optimum use has also expanded. US has been keenest supporter, but public opinion in many democracies under media pressure, has increased demands governments "do something" about human rights violations - broadening both "targets" and "goals" and changing criteria of success. Political effective might now include not only gaining compliance, but also stigmatizing orcontaining targets, and as means of preventing or deterring certain action. Success is harder to judge, particularly when multiple pressures, to both apply and satisfy. All are analysed. Finally, essay discusses means of focusing sanctions better, not only on elites but away from innocents.


Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.


Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

 

Erik Eckholm "U.S. and China Agree on Steps to Fight Drugs" New York Times 20 Jun 00:-Barry McCaffrey,director of White House drug-control policy, made unprecedented tour of China/Vietnam/Thailand to expand bilateral anti-drug cooperation. Reports that in Beijing he signed formal agreement to share information/evidence related to drug smuggling. Two already cooperated to stop illegal drug shipments, but both sides predicted more wide-ranging collaboration since face common serious novel problems of drug manufacture/use. Main concerns heroin and methamphetamine with latter fast-rising threat now produced in both countries. US/China may soon share intelligence in several areas: drugs-related/money-laundering/even weapons-smuggling. Associated Press "US Says Speed Is Worst Drug Menace" NYT 23 Jun:-picked up story in Bangkok. Here both sides agreed greatest menace methamphetamine/ "speed" sinceeasy to make/offers criminal organizations bigger profits than even heroin. Speed in Thailand mostlyproduced by ethnic armies in Myanmar(Burma)and poses new challenge following Thais' "enormous success" in reducing opium cultivation: estimate 600m speed pills will smuggle into Thailand from Myanmar this year. Meanwhile The Economist 24 Jun "A Tidal Wave of Drugs" (42):-reports growing problems in Caribbean. Once again become favoured route of Colombian drug traffickers. US officials estimate almost200 tonnes of cocaine were shipped through Caribbean islands to US last year, increase of 75% over 97, overwhelming control efforts. Some 67 tonnes transited Haiti in 99 without single conviction. "Economics against drug fighters" -tonne of cocaine fetches $100m in New York - more than entire annual government revenue of smaller islands. Societies pay in growing crime/distrust/corruption/intimidation/weapon imports. But relentless demand ensures relentless supply...

 

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

 

The Economist 06 Dec 97 "A Criminal Court for the World" (Edit.18-9;47):-favourable comments offered on setting up International Criminal Court:"Lack of such court has been most glaring omission in system of international institutions established"after WW II. Two thoughtful letters comment in 20 Dec 97 issue(6).Further article 14 Mar 98 issue(50-1)explains why reaching agreement has historically been so difficult.

 

The Economist 14 Mar 98"Moonrakers: Who Own the Moon?"(71):-discovery of water on the moon makes its exploitation much more feasible, and revives the issue of ownership. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty states the moon belongs to all mankind, but is legally vague. An attempt in 1979 to draft a Moon Agreement using the same approach as the LOS seabed principles failed. Commercial options are already under study in the US.

 

The Economist 13 Jun 98 "A New World Court: American Objections to a Strong International Criminal Court Are Misplaced" (Edit.16-8):-angry chastising of Powers - mainly US - for wanting international law to be applied only to others or, failing that, to"fatally undermine"Court. Claimed both unwarranted/inconsistent; if necessary, others should go ahead without US. "UN and War Criminals: How Strong a Court?" (46):-mainly outlines issues at Rome meeting on ICC. Identifies: state consent; relations with UNSC; powers ofprosecutor; complementarity with national courts; definition of crimes. See 25 Jul 98 for vote on ICC.

 

The Economist 04 Jul 98"Cooperate on Competition"(Edit.16;69-70):; "The Borders of Competition":-Not only are national governments charging some of the growing number of international mergers with breaking their national competition (antitrust) policies, but their actions are being opposed by other countries with different national laws. The items argue that the negotiation of multilateral rules in the WTO would help.

 

The Economist 11 Jul 98 "Science and Technology: Murder Must Advertise" (79):-highlighting enormous impact on crime-solving/legal evidence of DNA analysis. Claims DNA"already proving to be one of mostpowerful detective tools ever...invented" . "One day, many crimes will truly cease to be paying propositions - for when DNA databases hold profiles of millions of people, crimes solvable in...hours".More global(UN)such database, more effective it would be.

 

The Economist 25 Jul 98 "A Challenge to Impunity" (Edit.21-2):-cautiously optimistic on decision in Rome to establish International Criminal Court, despite US attempts to weaken and finally block it. Vote 120-7 in favour left US "humiliated and glum"but, as with landmine treaty, it showed willingness of other states to move ahead without superpower to create rule of law. Text outlines questions of contention and weakness but argues court long overdue(planned to follow Nuremberg/Tokyo trials);but large body of international law covering genocide/war crimes/crimes against humanity developed since. Court can show both independence and moral force. See 13 Jun 98/09 Oct 99 for more.

 

The Economist 29 Aug 98 "Punish and be Damned" (Edit.15; related articles: 42,43,44,45,52):-published after US military raids in reaction to attacks on two US embassies in Africa. Editorial assesses value of violent reprisals to major acts of terrorism causing global implications and horror, but where capture of perpetrators is difficult. "If it resorts to punishment raids without best of reasons[,aggrieved state]risks finding itself increasingly friendless in truly important disputes....Vigilance, intelligence and...determined pursuit of terrorists through courts may pay off handsomely in long run - without putting at risk world's sense of outrage and help that comes with it".

 

The Economist 07 Nov 98"Against Anti-Dumping"(18);"Unfair Protection" (75-6):-Anti-dumping cases are rising rapidly. The WTO provides for penalties if agreed lower tariffs are increased; but it also allows anti-dumping duties on foreign goods sold cheaper than at home or below production cost, when domestic producers can show harm. These duties are focused, easily managed (prices and costs are hard to compare; lower sales are obvious), usually approved, high, long-lasting and repeatable, with huge indirect costs. While "predatory pricing" is rare and temporary "safeguards" with compensation are available, these duties in reality simply "encourage domestic and foreign producers to collude to raise prices" (76). The solution: write national-type antitrust rules into WTO law.

 

The Economist 28 Nov 98 "Bringing the General to Justice" (Edit.16; 23-6):-discusses major implications for global human rights and law of close decision by Britain's highest court that Chile's General Pinochetcould be arrested and extradited to Spain. Two legal points at issue. First, determined that, even as former head of state, because accused of "crimes against humanity" Pinochet does not enjoy "sovereign immunity" according to Nuremberg Charter, UNGA resolutions, and Genocide and Torture Conventions. Second, as regards British jurisdiction, charges of crimes against humanity also imply "universal jurisdiction" .Specifically, under Torture Convention and Convention Against the Taking of Hostages, Britain "has taken extraterritorial jurisdiction for these crimes" . "Whatever General Pinochet's fate, Law Lords' decision is giant step towards establishing rule of international law" .

 

The Economist 02 Jan 99 "Ending the War on Drugs" (71-4):-ostensibly review of six recent books dealing with problem of illegal drugs, mainly in US. In fact well-written discussion about how we got into mess we are in, and where we might go from here. Books apparently agree that present situation/policies not satisfactory, and used mainly to illustrate points. Exchange in Foreign Affairs reported under Nadelmann(op.cit.) also favourably mentioned along with other sources. Cautious conclusion is that more should be spent intreatment or harm reduction.

 

The Economist 16 Jan 99 "A Global War Against Bribery" (Edit.19;22-4):-message: "For first time, there iscampaign to treat corruption as global problem about which, perhaps, something can be done" .OECD convention(Kaufmann op.cit.)making bribery of foreign public officials a crime is coming into force; World Bank and IMF both taking action and giving LDCs advice(Ahmed op.cit.).Corruption's high cost for all affected now known, and reaction more coordinated.

 

The Economist 13 Feb 99 "Female Genital Mutilation: Is It Crime or Culture?" (45-6):-serious human rights, health, legal and ethnic problem. Chart shows those countries with highest prevalence - from Djibouti/ Somalia/Egypt with over 95% to Burkina Faso 70% estimated; 137m women in at least 28 African countrieshave been mutilated. Attempts to stop it clearly causing less controversy in UN than in countries involved; while number of African states officially criminalized practice to avoid losing ODA, they do not dare enforce law. Apparently more effective to avoid cultural or moral judgment, and to concentrate on health risks, whichWHO sees as serious, and education.

 

The Economist 27 Feb 99 "World Financial Regulation" (74-5):-establishment by G7 finance ministers of a forum comprising 35 financial organizations "to assess the issues and vulnerabilities affecting theglobal financial system and to identify and oversee the actions needed to address them" .Will meet twice a year(expert groups could meet more often), but only sanction is peer pressure. LDCs are not included initially, but maybe later.

 

The Economist 27 Feb 99 "Japan's Constitution: The Call to Arms" (23-5):-very controversial element of UN reform relates to expanding membership of Security Council(UNSC). Single most eager/naturaladditional permanent member Japan, second-largest economy in world/second biggest contributor to UN budget. But UNSC responsibility to maintain international peace and security, so members expected to play major role in UN peacemaking. But Article 9 of Japan's Constitution renounces "threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes." While Japan maintains modern Self-Defence Force, many oppose it being used abroad, even in UN peacekeeping activities. Essay discusses current debate in Japan over use of its armed forces.

 

The Economist 06 Mar 99"Trade War? Going Bananas"(20); "World-Trade Rules at Risk: The Beef Over Bananas"(65-6):-editorial/article express serious concern for future of World Trade Organization (WTO) and more liberal trade generally. The immediate concern is the escalating dispute between the US and EU over the latter's banana import rules, which two WTO rulings have declared discriminatory but which the EU has not (yet) corrected. In return the US has (illegally) imposed sanctions on EU products. This US-EU problem is by no means unique(ibid 13 Jun 98). So the latest in/action "signals a crisis of confidence" in the WTO, which "seems incapable of enforcing its rules...because [those] on compliance are so unclear ...If countries feel that the WTO does not work, they will be tempted to bypass or ignore it...[The values] of arules-based system could be lost" (65). Is a compliance arbitrator needed?

 

The Economist 03 Apr 99 "War with Milosevic" (17-21):-collection mainly analytical essays on NATO confrontation with Serbia, discussing: both sides' probable aims, tactics and options; situation in/effect onMacedonia; US/Clinton sequence of thinking and actions, and their possible effect on internationalism and NATO; implications under/possibly for international law; long-term historic and recent background to Kosovo's role for both sides.

 

The Economist 24 Apr 99 "Lawyer Sam's War" (30):-US State Department citing international law much more in its foreign policy argumentation. Significant since US recently isolated in opposing International Criminal Court and Anti-Personnel Landmine decisions, and has refused to recognize international lawsperceived threatening to US interests. Newly-created US Ambassador for War Crimes, with considerable influence, claims war over Kosovo may be "watershed not only for NATO but for international law." Argued in past for such "humanitarian interventions" , even if they infringe national sovereignty, but they should be authorized by Security Council.

 

The Economist 01 May 99 "The End of Privacy: The Surveillance Society" (Edit.15-6;21-3):-the power of computers to gather personal information, and store/analyse/retrieve/disseminate it electronically/ globally, will continue expanding. New capacities will involve: government/marketing/banking/ surveillance(for state/private intelligence/arms verification/law enforcement/security control)/personalhealth/DNA/work/movements/contacts/tastes/credit/legal records. Policing data not feasible; data "gates" or encryption doubtful; intense debate inevitable. "People [must] just assume one simply has no privacy[-]one of greatest[modern]social changes.[L]aws will be used not to obstruct recording/collecting information, but to catch those who use it to do harm[,thus producing]more lawful security."

 

The Economist 08 May 99 "Come Together, If You Can" (48):-summarizes report by UN Development Programentitled "Global Public Goods" (Oxford Univ. Press 99)urging greater global information exchange, particularly for benefit of poor who suffer most for lack of it in information society. Proposal is to systematically record common problems and solutions, and to assess every nation's total exports, including ideas/patents/pollution/diseases/crime/other `externalities' so that "fuller picture could...be drawn of inequality/depletion of natural resources/financial instabilities/other threats to development" . "Knowledge bank" could then be set up to give poor states better access to new ideas and technology, assist policymakers, and promote international cooperation, e.g. for law enforcement. Compiling information clearly in global interest, and(computer)distribution costs are small.

 

The Economist 08 May 99"Free Trade in Peril"(Edit.12);"Trade: At Daggers Drawn"(17-20):-both claim current US-EU disputes over bananas, beef and genetically modified foods (all Economist op.cit.) threaten not only the WTO but the future of free trade. The disputes are updated, but emphasis is on institutional and economic issues: (1) with globalization, WTO members are no longer debating external tariffs or NTBs whose costs can be "balanced" . Current disputes derive from politically sensitive domestic policy issues such as food safety and environmental protection, and hence are much less negotiable; (2)WTO deadlocked over choice of Director-General, largely along North-South lines; (3)both US and EU find it hard to make concessions now(elections/economic problems); (4) the WTO is making quasi-judicial, rulings on politicalissues, and may be ignored. Perhaps it needs (IMF-type) Executive Committee. Letters to Economist 22 May 99 from the Colombian and Mexican WTO missions report an LDC advisory center on WTO law is planned, and that LDCs are seeking agreed WTO election statement. 24 Jul 99 issue (70) reports on the agreement that Mike Moore(NZ) and Supachai Panitchpakdi (Thailand) would each take three-year terms as WTO Director-General. Moore starts new Round.

 

The Economist 15 May 99 "Down with the Death Penalty" (Edit.20); "The Cruel and Ever More Unusual Punishment" (95-7):-strong appeals made for total abolition of capital punishment. Death penalty has beenabolished by all big democracies except US, Japan and India, as well as by growing numbers in Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America. Amnesty International reports 68 countries have done away with it for all crimes, 14 more for ordinary crimes, and further 23 have ended it in practice, making total of 105.(Russiasuspended it.)Three basic arguments in favour of capital punishment. Deters: no solid evidence more effective than long terms of imprisonment. Ensures criminal cannot kill again: so does imprisonment without parole. Retribution: tit-for-tat vengeance beyond reach of human justice. Mistakes can never be undone;inconsistency is inevitable.

 

The Economist 10 Jul 99 "Children Under Arms: Kalashnikov Kids" (19-21):-describes horrors and scale of problem of child soldiers and difficulty of dealing with it. UN Convention on Rights of the Child defines those under 18 years old as children, but permits recruitment at 15. Estimated that 300,000 children in over 60 countries currently soldiers. Vast majority - as young as 11 - are mostly forced or cajoled into formal or informal Third World fighting units, from west/central Africa to Balkans/Latin America/Sri Lanka/Afghanistan.Reasons: children are plentiful(half Sub-Saharan Africa's population under 18); easier to attract, abduct and mould than adults; often brave; always cheap. Score: perhaps 2m killed in combat post-87, perhaps 6m seriously injured, almost all brutalized. UN System: now attacking issue from several directions.

 

The Economist 21 Aug 99 "Hostages: A Growing Trade" (36-7):-hostage-taking reported spreading and multiplying. Taking place in all corners of developing world: Latin America(named: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Peru); Africa(Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia); Middle East(Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Yemen). Estimated ransom-related kidnappings alone "have reached record levels around world, with 1,407 reported incidents in 97, up from 791 in 95. Most go unreported [perhaps nine out of ten].But far more people taken for reasons other than ransom. Many hostage-takers looking for military or political advantages" .Any civilian will do(20,000 seized in Sierra Leone as soldiers(ibid.),sex slaves or bargaining chips),but foreigners, including relief workers, preferred for high ransom/media value. In 98, reported kidnappings in Colombiaincreased 42%(eight people/day)costing $165m in ransoms.

 

The Economist 28 Aug 99"The Shadow Economy: Black Hole"(59):-reports recent attempt to estimate size of "black" or "underground" economy of whole world, as well as in 76 developed and emerging economies. Some was product of criminal acts; much was legal income, unreported to avoid taxes. Individual country studies were made by Friedrich Schneider of Linz, Austria, whose calculations are explained. The estimated global "shadow" economy is $9 trillion. This compares with a 1998 official global GDP(in ppp) of $39 trillion, and comprises an amount equal to the entire (official) US economy. In rich countries, the "shadow" economy averages 15% of reported GDP; in emerging countries, about one-third of GDP. The largest underground economies are in Nigeria and Thailand: more than 70% of GDP, mainly crime-generated. Among the rich, Italy, Spain and Belgium lead with 23-28%, mostly tax evasion.

 

The Economist 18 Sep 99 "Pay Up and Play the Game" (Edit.20):-may well be toughest criticism Economist has ever levelled against US for ignoring its UN debt of $1.69b. After noting the US "has a hard time with supra-national organizations" (League, ICJ, WTO),and insults them, the editor stresses its bad behaviour to the UN [having as usual written most of its rules], which will cost its UNGA vote unless it pays its arrears before 2000. While most US-UN frictions have eased, and Clinton wants to pay, the House tied payment torestrictions on US(sic)family-planning programs abroad, making the US "look like a bigot and a fool on the world stage" . The Senate passed a bill "festooned with brattish conditions" far beyond the SG's authority. To be approved and implemented they would have to reflect somehow the wishes/acceptance of a majority of all the world's states. While Congress' motive may be to mollify those noisy Americans who see "the UN" as an independent entity busily seeking "world domination" , a paranoid minority would then be forcing [a particularly law-conscious and proudly democratic state] to refuse to pay its debts.

 

The Economist 09 Oct 99"A World Court for Criminals"(Edit.19-20):-again criticizing US for putting itself uniquely above international law(see 24 Apr 99/25 Jul 98 for similar concerns). US has no objection to supranational bodies dealing with war crimes: it was prime mover behind Yugoslavia and Rwanda tribunals and has actively supported one for Khmer Rouge. However it" clearly believes in building a system of international justice...on one vital condition: that any such system does not apply to...itself" (20). It objects to any International Criminal Court not subject to Security Council veto, but real objection is that key people "cannot tolerate any infringement of [US] sovereignty by an international body over which [it] does not have direct control" . US' own actions globally show such an absolute view of sovereignty is "no longer legitimate or useful" , so its position is "not only hypocritical, but misconceived" .

 

The Economist 16 Oct 99 "Let Death Be My Dominion: Suicide and Euthanasia" (89-92):-wide-ranging, well-written essay on great variety of moral, religious, medical, etc. issues raised by(assisted)suicide through history and many new problems raised by rapidly evolving life-support capacity and moral standards. " These developments have sparked complex and emotive debates about how to handle final stages of life...Idea that people have'right to die'is ...gaining support[in context of terminal illness but, if so,]does not everyone...have right to choose timing and manner of their own death?" .Yet there is strong taboo against suicide in most societies: it must reflect mental or emotional instability, despite its high global incidence. Butincreased euthanasia will likely force debate on suicide. Is it still sinful, irresponsible, unnatural, selfish, cruel, destructive, irrational? Each has counter-arguments.

 

The Economist 30 Oct 99"Emissions: Seeing Green"(73):-reports how various businesses now reacting more positively to planned Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas emission taxes. BP Amoco and Royal Dutch/Shell now admit "global warming is real and merits immediate action" . Utilities are trying to reduce power plant pollution; Dupont is voluntarily cutting emissions of greenhouse gases to 35% of their 1990 level in a decade. Examples of current use of transferable emission credits are given. Obtaining these will be of major value to heavy-industrial and energy firms for cutting their pollution taxes; BP Amoco istrading credits among its international divisions. Those able easily to reduce CO2/methane emissions and so generate credits include agribusinesses and forestry firms, while reinsurance companies can securitise emission-trading permits. "Carbon trading" could be BIG business; some predict a trillion-dollar global industry.

 

The Economist 06 Nov 99 "Bandwidth from Thin Air" (85-6); "How to Look Through Walls" (86):-first function of International Telecommunication Union, UN agency: "Allocation of radio frequency spectrum and registration of radio frequency assignments." As global exploitation of spectrum multiplies exponentially and increases(with satellites)in range, ITU fills its time(re)allocating fixed and so ever-more scarce/valuable global resource. Article reports two emerging technologies promise to make vastly more use of limited "bandwidth." One allows multiple simultaneous transmissions on same frequency(Bell Labs Layered Space-Time: BLAST); other transmits on huge range of frequencies at once(Ultra Wide-Band:UWB).Both create "unforeseen reserves of valuable bandwidth...at cost of increased computational complexity." UWB used as radar "can employ significantly longer wavelengths [to] penetrate wide range of materials(e.g. brick/stone)." Potential military, police, disarmament, intelligence uses vast.

 

The Economist 18 Dec 99"Privacy: Living in the Global Goldfish Bowl"(49-54):-states problem: "Privacy has become one of...battlegrounds of information economy. As databases proliferate and the...Internet expands inexorably, calls...for more protections have grown ever more strident, and pledges...to respect privacy...ever more convoluted. At the heart of this struggle is a basic dilemma: most people want to retainsome control over who knows what about them, and yet information [on] individuals is the lifeblood of most...new service businesses." (49). Where the problem is already most pressing, there is also a basic split over how it should be handled: EU has passed one of world's most comprehensive and stringent privacy laws...while US wants its self-regulation system accepted. In any event, many firms now exist to dig up masses of personal information very quickly - as article demonstrates!

 

The Economist 18 Dec 99 "South Seas Piracy: Dead Men Tell No Tales" (87-9):-survey of state/techniques of world maritime piracy, concentrated mainly in South-East Asia. Article reports that pirate attacks, usually against large ships, have doubled during 1990s, to 200 a year. Last year, 67 crew members were killed, 66 in Asian waters where nearly three-quarters of all world's attacks take place. In their more mundane form, ad hoc gangs in speedboats board ships for minor theft(mooring ropes; petty cash). Since gangs are willing to kill with guns or machetes, most crews carry no weapons and are under strict instructions to follow pirates' orders. New sophisticated threat is hijacking of ships and cargos by international crime syndicates, with hints of official collusion. Ship names and papers are changed easily, as is cargo "ownership" . UN International Maritime Organization and shipping companies are working onlegal/technical counter-measures. For updates see Economist 21 Jul 01 and 12 Jun 04(op.cit.).

 

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "The Rules of Secession" (22):- Editor raises hot question: Is there right to secede?If "sophisticated states are no longer neurotically attached to bits of territory" , but would not welcome "new profusion of tiny tribal states" it offers four principles with which to judge demands:(1) "Secession should neither be encouraged nor discouraged...it is in itself neither good nor bad" . [Even, like Editor, ignoring violent emotions/ greed as dangerous/bad motives for secession(see 4 Mar Economist: "War and Money..." )there are other inherently serious "bad" secessions, particularlycreation of non-viable states: East Timor?apartheid's" Bantustans" ?Bosnia? Kosovo?rump Canada minus Quebec?.](2) "It should be carried out only if clear majority(well over 50%-plus-one of voters)have freely chosen" .[Ducks absolutely critical question of who gets to vote: all in Ireland?Ulster?Cyprus? Bosnia? Canada?;all(but only?)ethnic group members of which some want to secede:Quebecois?francophones in Canada?in Belgium?Kurds?Punjabis?Kashmiris?;all deeply affected by secession: all Canadians?] (3) "Secessionist territory must offer guarantees that any minorities it drags along will be decently treated" . [One's "decency" is another's "oppression" so who sets/judges/imposes guarantees?; what if some refuse to be "dragged" :change borders?secessions within secessions?resettlement (i.e. "cleansing" )?] (4) "Secessionists should be able to make reasonable claim to be national group" .[Since" Bosnians" could not, cannot, and for long will not be able to do so, who decides?when and how much should numbers/ history count(Palestine)?latest inter/intra-state/ethnic borders often produce fatal new units(Tito's mis-divided Yugoslavia?Quebec?)so how(much)respected?]

 

The Economist 26 Feb 00"Lawyers Go Global: The Battle of the Atlantic"(79-81):-globalization has affected world's legal profession - as it has most others - by forcing or attracting more global capacity. While the legal "market" remains highly fragmented," for the biggest and richest law firms the growth of world capital markets, and the globalization in most other industries, means that advising on cross-border deals is becoming the fastest-growing and most lucrative aspect of their business" . A growing proportion of such expanding international business is conducted under US or English law, even when the firms are continental European or Asian. Some claim that complexity means "only a single, unified law firm can deliver a 'seamless' global service" . Others say high quality, plus working with local firms, outweighsglobal reach. Big accounting firms have also created huge multi-role international systems. In both areas,networks are risky.

 

The Economist 04 Mar 00 "War and Money: The Business of Conflict" (46-8):-while land/people conquesthas long been goal of warfare, such "fixed assets" can now be costly and unstable. Report by ICRC(Forum: War, Money and Survival,Geneva:Mar 00)argues: "Prolonged internal violence in[lands]with rich natural resources but corrupt or weak governments may best be understood as battles for money or[marketable]resources...Some wars are caused in large part by corruption and banditry...whereas otherswhich may have begun as ethnic or ideological conflicts, are now sustained in part by illicit trading[Afghan opium, Colombian cocaine]. Rebels, governments and even peacekeepers have fought for diamonds, minerals and timber in recent wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone" . Many participants(arms/other traders, mercenaries)may prefer to continue to exploit a war rather than win and end it. Such "resource" wars are particularly hard to end if the" fighters" have no goal but profit. Trade sanctions may help;then smugglers gain. As example of key role of diamonds in financing bloody and protracted war in Angola, see Barbara Crossette "Report on Angola Sanctions is Challenged in the U.N." New York Times 16 Mar 00. One in series of fine articles on expert investigation for Security Council's Angola Sanctions Committee, it reports two African presidents, Bulgarian government and diamond exchange in Antwerp were inter alia implicatedin smuggling and sale of Angolan diamonds by UNITA rebels, contrary to UN sanctions. Canadian committeechairman has called for action against sanctions-busters, first time a sanctions committee has actively enforced embargo. Corrective action was promised. For full account of diamonds' role in conflicts: Blaine Harden "Africa's Gems: Warfare's Best Friend" NYT 06 Apr. Expert claims 10-15% of world supply comes from war zones. World Bank report goes further and blames outbreak and/or continuation of vast majority of recent civil wars, not on ethnic motives, but on greed for control of valuable commodities like diamonds, other gemstones, narcotics, oil, coffee etc. Joseph Kahn "World Bank Blames Diamonds and Drugs for Many Wars" NYT 16 Jun sees two conclusions: discourage states from becoming too heavily dependent on commodities, and control their illicit sale before/during conflict. Barbara Crossette, "Singling Out Sierra Leone, U.N. Council Sets Gem Ban" NYT 06 Jul:-action by UNSC in latter direction: it" imposed worldwide ban on purchase of rough diamonds from Sierra Leone until its government can establish system to certify origin of stones being exported, and begins to assert authority over diamond fields" . Most are now under rebel control, with stones smuggled out through Liberia. Resolution is admittedly experimental, but aims at roots of war, reflects growing cooperation from both industry/governments, and may signal major new UN peacemaking tool. Economist 08 Jul "Is That a Rebel Rock on Your Finger?" (42):-notes West African governments(with US support) prevented extending ban to Liberia, but it may at least lower smugglers' prices-up to 50%. Associated Press "Diamond Industry Acts to Halt Trade in Illicit Gems From Africa" NYT20 Jul: World Diamond Congress, conscious that growing horror about "blood diamonds" could seriously hurt trade, has arranged means(verifiable certificates of place of origin)to track diamonds mine/retailer and applyheavy penalties(ban licences)to who break rules.

 

The Economist 08 Apr 00 "Who Owns the Knowledge Economy?" (Edit.17); "Patent Wars: Knowledge Monopolies" (75-8):-address issue already raising serious legal, ethical, R&D, competition, trade and North-South debates - worth billions of dollars. It is accelerating numbers of patents granted in novel/ controversial areas, made both possible/immensely valuable by rapid advances in knowledge power they guard(computer software, genetic engineering, Internet business methods). Patents global(in theory),wherever first granted, and recognized international patent system is under creation by World Intellectual Property Organization, WTO - and sheer demand. Patents are both defenses in very competitive world, andfertile/flexible income generators. Yet, while aiming to foster invention by rewarding it, they do not "differentiate between incentives needed to invest in different kinds of technologies. [Henceforth theyshould respond to]investment that an invention represents[and] come in different shapes and sizes, or system will go on producing absurdities" (17).

 

The Economist 03 Jun 00 "Stem Cells: Brain Into Brawn" (80-2):-on-technical account of growing scientific knowledge about multiple capacities and particularly "regenerative medicine" potential of stem cells. It notes that most body cells are specialized to do only one thing; however, elite group - stem cells - found in many organs, when given right biochemical signals, can divide(reproduce)and transform themselves into range of different cell-types as and when need arises. Stem cells are found particularly in embryos where they are busy creating/building new organs, but also in many adult organs, where their flexibility can be used to replenish ordinary cells. Yet obvious potential in transplants and regeneration was thought to be limited by small variety of cell types which each could make. It now appears they are very versatile. "Neural" stem cells from adult(mouse)brain lining were transferred to embryos - where they integrated well "far and wide" . As more is learned, adult stem cells may be taken from one part of person and "auto-transplanted" into another part which badly needs cellular substitutes. Economist 11 Nov 00 "Cancer Treatment: Stemming the Brain Drain" (104):-different, and possibly very important, application of stem cells as "killers" rather than builders seems possible. Article reports that way may have been found to use stem cells to destroy cancerous cells - and only cancerous cells. It relates to cancerous brain tumours calledgliomas, which spread rapidly, are resistant to radiation and conventional drugs, and so are usually fatal. Stem cells seem to have penchant for injured cells, and so home in on damaged tissue like tumours, and stick with(only)them. Harvard medical team in effect laced stem cells with deadly poison. They went straight to rats' gliomas, killed 80% of their cells, harmed nothing nearby. Embryo/ethics issues are less.

 

The Economist 17 Jun 00 "Patent Law: Going Global" (83):-08 Apr item "Patent Wars..." outlined rapidly-increasing number, complexity and cost of patent-related problems in a high-tech, interdependent world, with instant global communications. This item reports on "significant step towards simple, global system for patent filing" in form of new world patent-law treaty signed at WIPO(UN World Intellectual Property Organization). Inter alia it stipulates "standardized forms that all patent offices must accept, basic standards for electronic submission of patents, and mechanisms to avoid loss of rights due to non-essential formalities or unintentional delays" . Most important, signatories accept nationally any patent filed according to international standard known as PCT(Patent Co-Operation Treaty)and "may pave way for filing single patent according to global standard" . Issues of substance, such as what constitutes "novelty" , will be discussed later this year, but tougher debates such as that between "first to invent" and "first to file" may be left longer. Not surprisingly, China, India and some other LDCs are doubtful. [In light of current North-South problems over high costs of patented drugs and seeds, global formula may be needed so LDCs can get/make critical patented goods cheaply, but not "dump" them elsewhere.]

 

The Economist 05 Aug 00 "Engage and Prosper" (Edit.22-3); "Peacekeeping:The UN's Missions Impossible" (24-6); "Road-Mending in Lebanon" (25); "Kouchnerism in Kosovo" (26):-all have one subject in common:role of United Nations. Leader makes point US took lead in 1945, creating UN System and its rules; later helped build UN-centred global network of legal economic and security rules. Yet" pre-eminent victor of Cold War has failed to provide leadership needed to build kind of international system unruly post-Cold-War world demands" .Instead it chooses rules it obeys, or those it ignores - setting politically/morallydangerous precedent of unilateral exemptions from rule of law, and of selective involvement even whenits own paramount beliefs are flouted. Essay offers expert history - warts and all - of evolving UN peacekeeping that now makes humanitarian intervention in cases of gross violation of human rights almost compulsory. Yet UN is refused men, money and structure necessary to undertake increasingly complex and dangerous missions, including effectively in East Timor and Kosovo simultaneous administration/ creation of civil regimes, reconstruction of badly damaged economies, and maintenance of peace insocieties split by hatred. Priority recommendations: UN needs good intelligence analysis, and UNSGwilling to refuse clearly impossible missions. Notes describe:(1)lengthy(22 years), dangerous(82 dead), and frustrating(finally completed)experience of UN force(UNIFIL)in south Lebanon sent to supervise Israeli withdrawal;(2)Bernard Kouchner unique responsibility:" begin building peace/democracy/stability and self-government" in Kosovo. Common thread might be: world badly needs US-UN to work together to createnew rules and structures to help ensure unprecedented/rapidly-evolving 21st Century challenges can behandled.

 

The Economist 02 Sep 00 "The Price of Paying Ransoms" (Edit.17):-recalling large number of highly publicized hostage-takings recently(Afghanistan, Brazil, Colombia, Fiji, former Soviet Union, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Yemen)confirms global trend upwards. Those taken in 1999 increased by 6% over 1998, number has been growing at that rate for several years - producing total increase of 70% over eight years. Ransom by Libya of Jolo Island hostages at $1m each taught kidnappers:" holding few hostages keeps army away; grabbing more keeps money rolling in" ,as well as some global politics(for Libyan motives/source of funds: "Qaddafi, Floating Like a Butterfly" (41)). While kidnapping has many causes( "inequalities of wealth, availability of guns, rebel armies looking for funds, underpaid police" )main reason is rewards. Hence universal lesson: hostage-taking must be seen not to pay. Short of capturing/ punishing kidnappers[absence of any safe haven may be critical], it may also mean making it illegal to pay ransom.[Editor might add: such rules work best if applied/enforced globally.]

 

The Economist 30 Sep 00"Trade: From Boom To Boom"(77-8):-binding nature of WTO technical decisionsgave them judicial weight, and made Transatlantic trade judgements impossible to ignore. It made defeats politically very hard to accept since the Dispute Settlement Understanding(DSU)not only permits winners to punish losers' indiscretions but even sets guidelines for the amount of compensation required. It has been usual in a trade dispute for the aggrieved party to "gain compensation" by imposing punitive tariffson the convicted miscreant. This of course also hurts its own importers and consumers, so both sides end uphurt and frustrated. Recent EU-US disputes/decisions on EU import controls on bananas and hormone-treated beef, and the use by US exporters of the Foreign Sales Corporation(FSU)for tax breaks started a cycle of retaliation that brought the two sides to what seemed like" the brink of a fully blown trade war" . But the EUhas offered to break the negative cycle by suggesting the US give tariff concessions to the EU in compensation for the FSU - quite in accord with DSU. If agreed, both sides gain; if this becomes normal procedure, trade wars end!

 

The Economist 07 Oct 00"Morocco: Children in the Boiler-Room"(55):-reports on perhaps an extreme example of child labour, but well illustrates its causes/effects/excuses. UNICEF "child-free" certificates oncarpets were never used in Morocco because" the handicraft sector, the second-largest employer, would have been crippled" . Children do a wide variety of jobs, including up to 1m child-maids. This is not slave labor only in that $14($10 for 10-hour days at carpet-weaving)is paid per month, usually to parents. "Abuseis rampant, murder occasional. But the government resists regulation for fear of revealing the extent of itschild workforce to the [ILO]" . Poor parents keep having children - for income; if there is no work, they are sent to beg; if peasants cannot feed them, they are(preferably) sent to work in the cities. Morocco has thehighest proportion of homeless children in the Arab world, many addicted to glue-sniffing. The US estimates that, inter alia to finance this habit, there are more than 10,000 child prostitutes in Casablancaalone. While education is compulsory (since 1963)at least 2.5m children are out of school, and half of Morocco is illiterate. Government advisors claim child labor is better than the streets:" What is the point of an education [if] the current system produces 100,000 jobless graduates a year" . City unemployment is25%. The new king, Mohammed, recognizes" that his uneducated workforce is one of the biggest obstaclesto growth" ; he is turning mosques into schools, fines parents if their children miss class(enforcement is weak), and declared a jihad to educate his subjects.

 

The Economist 28 Oct 00 "United Nations and Refugees: Ruud Surprise" (43-4):-Ruud Lubbers, former Dutch PM (82-94),unexpected choice to succeed Mrs. Sadako Ogata as United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Refugee agency, which has annual budget of more than $1b, is most politically active of UN's agencies. [Having played critical, life-saving role in all-too-many wars and humanitariancrises, its] importance will continue, and perhaps expand. Displacement of civilians, once semi-accident of war, has now become one of main goals of warring parties. Worldwide now 14m refugees...and 21m internally displaced people[under UNHCR care]" . Global total unknown but much larger. Priority of refugee over IDP may end, since latter often need more urgent help. Controversial distinction is between( "threatened" )refugees and(up to billions of)economic migrants. Barbara Crossette "Dutch Figure Seen as Choice for U.N. Post With Refugees" NYT 25 Oct 00:-picked up appointment in advance and addedother details. Term is five years(Ogata held for nearly ten),job is viewed as one of most important in UN system, being responsible for staff of about 5,000 working in more than 120 countries. Lubbers, like WHODirector-General, Gro Harlem Brundtland(former PM of Norway)and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson(former president of Ireland), is another high-level political leader added to UNSGAnnan's team of administrators. Reuters "Ogata Says UN Council Is Too Slow And Inflexible" NYT 10 Nov 00:-Sadako Ogata, in farewell speech as UNHCR to Security Council, gave piece of her mind to only body in world on which every government has conferred "primary responsibility for maintenance of international peace and security" (Charter Art.24).Among her criticisms: Nature of war has changed, sincemuch is now civil strife conducted by undisciplined guerrilla armies. "In spite of discussions on wider approaches, peace operations continue to be country-based, and reflect neither internal nor regional nature of many of today's wars." Moreover, Council dispatched peacekeepers far too late to protectuprooted citizens or even UN staff in field[UNHCR has suffered more fatal casualties than any other UN agency]. "We at UNHCR have become used to being called to confront refugee emergencies, literally at few hours' notice. We have no choice: delays in our work inevitably means that lives are lost." Council alsoinflexible in expanding operations across borders to aid trapped refugees(terrible examples of Rwanda-Zaire and East-West Timor).Currently Guinea has requested security aid to help half-a-million trapped refugees in its areas bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone; yet only presence of international community ishumanitarian." Ogata contended that governments are receptive to "ladder of options" to improve local security in refugee-inhabited areas. She also argued gap between short-term aid and development programs too large once emergencies ended.(UNSC going to discuss peacekeeping reforms next day..)Economist 27 Jan 01 "A New Deal For Refugees: Changed Course" (48):-negative report on UNHCR Lubbers' commitments and plans. It notes many maintaining/benefiting from UNHCR operations found his selection process "murky and undemocratic" , suspecting he gained post "along with" orders from major donors to cut organization back. In any event, he announced 24 Jan that budget would drop well below its recent $1b annual level, in hope that funding levels would at least become reliable. He proposes thatmuch UNHCR relief work(giving refugees food, shelter, other services)be assumed by NGOs, WFP,businesses. Lubbers also wants to reverse Ogata's special interest in 25m IDPs, arguing they areresponsibility of "their own governments" (if any).Regarding asylum-seekers, he takes tougher line, however: Europeans(sic) "must take seriously responsibility of giving asylum" .

 

The Economist 11 Nov 00"The Trade Agenda: A Different, New World Order"(83-9):-valuable on global trade problems and prospects - mainly in the WTO context. While there is useful information on how such issues were handled before, and how present disputes developed and negotiations currently stand, theconstantly changing roster and status of commercial differences and agreements, limits the essay'sdurability. Outline of key LDCs' positions/influence, and warning of probable negotiating difficulties with China and Russia once in the WTO, are particularly interesting. A clear survey of complex relationships.

 

The Economist 06 Jan 01 "Rights and Refugees" (Edit.17-8); "The Palestinian Right of Return" (41-2):-why refugee-return issue probably most difficult Israeli-Palestinian issue. Some 3.6m, 50%+of all Palestinians, are refugees registered by UNRWA. They were originally those who were either expelled or fled in 1948 from their homes in what UN recognized as Israel. Most(plus their descendants)still live -many in refugee camps- in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza. None has been compensated; they depend onUNGA resolutions for restitution: Res.194/948 states: "refugees wishing to return to their homes...should be permitted to do so" .Israel does not acknowledge this "right of return" but recognizes need for substantialcompensation(by somebody)and expects refugees to be settled elsewhere(at most .5m might gradually be absorbed in poor/tiny new Palestinian state).Israel's essential problem is demographic: addition of millions of Palestinians to Israeli population would end any Jewish state. Editor suggests(contradictory) solution lies in mutual acknowledgement of both refugees' right of return to Israel and Israel's right to determine when, and who must be refused on grounds of national security.

 

The Economist 20 Jan 01 "Natural Disasters: Lessons from El Salvador's Earthquake" (31):-lessons and proposals from preparations before/response to tragedy of 13 Jan. Aimed mainly at Central America butapply to any small, poor countries liable to natural disasters. After Hurricane Mitch(1998)did terrible damage to Honduras/Nicaragua and some to all Central American states, UN reported none had disaster-management plans and" when catastrophe struck, civil-defence bodies were sidelined by politicians. As result, once emergency teams, called in for particular incident, had been disbanded, nobody to apply lessons-learned next time.[Hence, UN said, each country needed] 'permanent state institution, staffed bytrained disaster-management professionals' and armed with mandate for preventive work" .El Salvador's civil-defence agency responded ASAP, but has little say in preventive planning, which " involvesstrengthening laws and enforcing them - hard in states cursed by corruption" . Also, donors shouldsupport permanent disaster-response team for region, and further improved regional coordination.Economist 03 Feb "Catastrophe in Gujarat" (Edit. 22-4); "Earthquakes in India: Worse to Come?" (83):-pitifully soon after above, reaction to even worse tragedy. Again stressed actions(well-enforced building codes; well-studied risk zones; nearby rapid-response teams; planned international aid)that could greatly reduce costs(even in very poor countries)of major shocks in growing urban areas. Unfortunately science warns greatest collisions of tectonic plates on earth, run along mountainous borders of sub-continentso constant seismic stress has created recurring catastrophes.

 

The Economist 03 Feb 01 "Air Terrorism and International Law: The Long Trail Twisting From Lockerbie" (45-6):-Scottish judges unanimously found Libyan intelligence agent guilty of mass murder of 270 people by exploding bomb in Pan American flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 88. Also offers excellentsummary of precedent-setting international trial, and of US-UK options regarding further action against Qaddafi, including removal of UN sanctions on Libya(Doxey 99 & 00 op.cit.).For US attitude/actions towards Qaddafi/Libya, and Qaddafi's attitude towards US, see combined item: Tanter 98 "Rogue Regimes..." and Viorst 99 "The Colonel..." (op.cit.).Several media reports clarify broader implications of Lockerbie trial.Associated Press "U.N. Chief Releases Letter on Bomb" NYT 25 Aug 00:-describes UK-drafted letter from UNSG to Qaddafi, assuring him trial is purely legal and not manipulated political process. AP "Lockerbie Verdict Expected..." NYT 30 Jan 01:-summarizes unusual structure/course of trial. Donald G.McNeil Jr. "Libyan Convicted in Lockerbie Trial" NYT 31 Jan 01:-reports verdict(one defendant found guilty of mass murder, while co-defendant freed for lack of proof),and legal rationale behind it. David Johnston "News Analysis: Courts Are a Limited Anti-Terror Weapon" NYT 01 Feb 01:-comments on relative effectiveness of "criminal law as weapon against horrific act of international terror." Greatest limit in case was inability to punish those viewed by many as really responsible: Qaddafi's regime. Some experts argue suchnational security threats should be dealt with by military force(e.g.Tripoli, Sudan strikes).AP "Gadhafi Fails on Lockerbie Evidence" ;Reuters "Qaddafi Defies West Over Lockerbie Bombing" NYT 05 Feb 01:-both report on Qaddafi's attempt in long speech/press conference to make good his promise to reveal at that timenew, "proven evidence that[convicted man]innocent" - "revelations so grand they could drive trial judges to suicide." But he merely read from published reports expressing skepticism about verdict, and then claimed "I refuted whole case, destroyed it." Reuters "Libyan Riot Police Break Up Anti-Britain Protest" NYT06 Feb 01:-after having been stirred up, demonstrators tried to attack British and UN(sic)offices in Tripoli, and were harshly treated.

 

The Economist 03 Feb 01: "Europe Sued Over Bananas: Fruit Suit" (75-6):-reports on a new battlegroundin EU-US banana war(see Economist 30 Sep for last despatch). In 1992 European Commission announced it would protect its banana market to help the exports of Europe's former colonies - contrary to WTOrules and the interests of(US)banana companies, such as Chiquita and Dole, based in Central America. As future EU import quotas were to be allocated according to 1992 market shares, both EU and US companies flooded the market with bananas - whose price collapsed. Chiquita lost heavily, has never fully recovered, and needs to restructure $862m-worth of debt. Despite its repeated rejection by WTO, the quota system remains; hence Chiquita is suing EU Commission for $525m in lost profits. It argues that EU Council of Ministers in 1998 ordered the Commission" to institute a WTO-compliant import regime" , but theCommission disobeyed the order and broke the law. Legal authority of WTO's unique Dispute Settlement Body is at stake.

 

The Economist 24 Feb 01 "Foreign Direct Investment: The Cutting Edge" (80):-recent FDI trends(particularly massive global increase)are of "crucial importance...for far-reaching economic change" especially in those LDCs that can attract. "Benefits are so great that[political]reservations...have been put aside. [FDI]is far more than'capital': it is uniquely potent bundle of capital, contacts, and managerial and technological knowledge. It is cutting edge of globalization" .Given this perspective," great interest" in first-ever report: World Investment Prospects(London: Economist Intelligence Unit, 2001)available for $595 via http://store.eiu.com. Undertakes to forecast up to 2005 FDI flows into 60 countries(virtually all actual/projected flows)blending70 separate indicators to estimate "business environment" . "Political" indicators(e.g. quality of bureaucracy) derived from views of current investors. Forces driving FDI are drawn from econometrics(market size, growth, input costs, geography, natural resources, policy). Then "conventional forecasts of relevant economic aggregates" [presume global price/market/growth trends]are added. Finally applied:qualitative/speculative ideas about changes in "non-economic" conditions[e.g. new laws, technology, governments, violence?].Forecast: Report projects FDI flows to "shrink markedly" from $1.1 trillion in 2000 to less than $800b in 2001, most in FDI to rich countries, with flows to LDCs staying about $220b. By 2005 global FDI stocks will exceed $10 trillion($6 trillion in 2000)with flows to LDCs rising slightly faster than others(to 29%).Ten top FDI recipients 2001-5(annual average in $b):US236.2;Britain82.5;Germany68.9;China57.6;France41.8; Netherlands36.1; Belgium30.2;Canada29.6;Hong Kong20.5;Brazil18.8. Essay concludes:both FDI and globalization are gathering momentum.[Although dated by 2001 copy, some ideas remained true, others seem modified.]

 

The Economist 03 Mar 01 "Displaced People: When Is a Refugee Not a Refugee?" (23-6):-good overview of growing problem of internally displaced persons(IDPs). "People who are trapped by war or persecution within their own countries need help as much as, or more than, official refugees. But world has been slow to appreciate their plight" . Covers, at least briefly, all major aspects of global issue: numbers, locations, motives, needs and handling of IDPs. Above all, however, it probes implications of their legal problem: they do not fit UN definition of refugee, i.e. "any person who[for specific reasons]is outside country of nationality" and so does not receive refugee's legal protection, nor are IDPs officially responsibility ofshort-funded UNHCR. While IDPs form largest group of displaced persons no effort has even been made before to count them. Dennis McNamara, UN's co-ordinator on internal displacement will, however, besubmitting full report to UNSG demanding that more be done.

 

The Economist 31 Mar 01 "Poverty and Property Rights: No Title" (20-2):-most works on global poverty and development emphasize the importance of land redistribution from the few to the many, but examples of resulting national prosperity are rare: the aim is justice. This essay, drawing mainly on the situation in Malawi, deals with a closely-related problem that does have major economic potential. In many LDCs poorfarmers know precisely the borders of their own plots of land. Their families may have passed the land down through many generations, and be recognized as owners by the local elders and the whole community. But in a(mostly)illiterate and "customary" society, they have no legal proof of ownership. Theeconomic significance is that, however firm their assets of land and what is on it, they cannot use it as collateral to obtain a loan(except from local loan sharks)-and in a near-subsistence" informal" society, there is often no other way to raise cash. Yet a recent book(Hernando de Soto, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else(Basic Books))claims" the total value of the fixed property held but not legally owned by the poor of the third world and former communist countries is at least $9.3 trillion" . Property rights offer many advantages: the assets become fungible, kept whole or divided in parts, for any chosen purpose; inter(national)property systems offer knowledge e.g. who owns what; what anything is/was sold for; addresses/assets/credit of relevant strangers; ownership ofunseen(or uncreated)goods; employ specialists. Effectively, no poor country has secure property rights.Challenge for their governments is to fashion "clear and enforceable set of laws. Alternative is to stay poor" .

 

The Economist 07 Apr 01 "Rage Over Global Warming" (Edit.18); "Global Warming: Is the Kyoto Treaty Dead?" (73-5):-both make rather unorthodox, point: while politicians, media, environmentalists globally expressed shock and horror when President Bush brusquely announced reversal of US support for Kyoto Protocol, Economist essentially agrees with decision but for different reasons. Bush's one brief rationale: Kyoto's implementation would hurt US economy - tactical error as widely agreed. In fact four criticisms of Kyoto put forward by Administration: (1)uncertainties about science supporting need to take action to prevent/reduce climate change;(2)lack of participation by poor countries;(3)huge economic burdenimposed on US during" energy crisis" ;(4)impossibility of getting ratification by Senate. Essay rebutseach:(1)now effectively consensus among experts that climate change is real, dangerous, and being produced by human action;(2)rich world created problem so should act first to correct it(LDCs are to take on emission targets later);(3)claim US "energy crisis" prevents it from taking action" ; (only bogus crisis is in California, result of botched power deregulation; real cost meeting Kyoto targets unknown but adjustable);(4)Senate votes depend on public opinion/text presented. Essay then argues if Bush/EU really want to tackle climate change, they should admit that current Kyoto targets now impossible for US(and probably some European states/Japan)to meet on scale/date set. Also unnecessarily inflexible:front-loading deep cuts in emissions makes them much more costly. But economists propose "safety valves" (David Victor The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol(Princeton Univ. Press)). Text sets ambitious one-off targets butputs no limit on compliance costs. Yet issue is cumulative:growing stock of greenhouse gases,unrelated to any specific date. Progressive targets ( "bold but measured steps" (Grubb))would reduceeconomic costs substantially. Transferrable emission credits also spread/reduce costs. EU or US could initiate a flexible approach. Economist 28 Apr "Heated Debate" (6)on Letters page contains two important responses to Edit. Michael Grubb(op.cit.), one of world's leading experts on how international community can deal with global warming, stresses(contrary to interpretation)initially mild reductions and deliberate flexibilitywere built into Kyoto Protocol precisely to meet US concerns. Letter from Christopher Bare of Los Angeles argues that improved agreement highly unlikely to be obtained from Bush and adds growing suspicion that in reality Editor shares Bush's "anti-environment sentiment" .

 

The Economist 14 Apr 01 "Perfect?" (Edit.15-6) "The Politics of Genes: America's Next Ethical War" (21-4):-problem already raising issues in US and bound to rapidly become global: vast implications of genetic science, through which humans can be created "to order" - and rapidly cease to be humans as we know them. Deals with how question has arisen in US, various views and problems faced, and how will probably be handled - series of specific Supreme Court decisions. But this bibliography deals only with global issues -well addressed in Edit. It first notes genetic science does not pose just "normal" questions of how to regulate new technology; also presents ethical and political challenges both extraordinary/imminent. In positive terms biotechnology allows medicine tailored to individuals, some diseases to be prevented before they occur; childless to be given children. Yet governments need expert, regular, independent advice: ifproposed major genetic innovations are "necessary and desirable" . For safety should also be moratorium on reproductive human cloning, at least until odds of success much higher than now. Meanwhile those whooppose cloning can try to prove case for banning. Good arguments both ways: in favour, say, form ofbenign(even life-saving)and individual eugenics, or against, lifetime loss of dignity or autonomy for reasons reflecting no more than cosmetics or parental hubris. Be open-minded but cautious.

 

The Economist 14 Apr 01 "The Challenge of Money Laundering" (64-6):-many of "world's best-known banks have become central element in process by which crooks clean up their ill-gotten gains" .Money laundering defined as "processing through banking system of proceeds of crime in order to disguise their illegal origin" .While big banks are now doing great deal more than they did until very recently to keep it out of their systems - particularly by using technology to sift through money-transfer data for unusual activity - exercise faces three major problems. Both banks and customers want to maintain privacy - in competitive business; new technology(anonymous electronic cash) may be making money laundering easier; sinceproblem truly global, honest differences of opinion between regulators, about what constitutes crime. IMFestimates amount of dirty money being cleaned annually amounts to between $500b and $1.5 trillion, andgrows with globalization. Essay offers good deal of information about how and where it takes place, and is being fought.

 

The Economist 09 Jun 01 "Mr Bush Goes to Europe" (Edit.9); "Special Report - America and Europe; Wanted: New Rules of the Road" (25-7):-in connection with Bush II's first official visit to Europe(EU/NATO)essays cite many US-European disputes and divergent attitudes(in terms of global perspectives, preoccupations, and images of each other)but conclude common values/interests will overcome.Defence raises genuine differences over US missile defence proposal(with prefix" national" now being downplayed)and its threat to ABM Treaty. Europeans' "worries might recede" if they(and Russia)could bepersuaded its sole purpose/use would be against "rogue" regimes. Also" lurking disagreements" overconventional forces: prospect of US redeployments from Europe to Pacific and real effects(on NATO)and motives of EU rapid-reaction force. Trade disputes: chronic, moving into(previously-domestic)regulatoryissues, sometimes bitter and reflecting even cultural differences(GMO). Behind all lie major worries about prospects for new WTO trade round. Serious perceptual problem: if things go badly, both sides" fall back on some surprisingly negative stereotypes.[US]stereotype is of Europe that is economically sclerotic, psychologically neurotic and addicted to spirit-sapping welfare schemes and freedom-infringing state. European stereotype is of gun-slinging, Bible-bashing, Frankenstein-food-guzzling, behemoth-driving, planet-polluting[US] in which politicians are mere playthings of mighty corporations" (25). Most striking, European assessments of Bush himself(prior his visit)were "strongly hostile" though not unprecedented. "More important, structural changes in world politics are driving wedge between Europe and US" .Among Europe's four big powers only Italy's new government shares Bush's conservatism. In terms of security, US and Europe each need other less than in past(even Clinton past). "Upshot of consolidation of Europe has been to tug Europe and America in opposite directions[and to]look at world in increasingly different ways" (26). US looks at Asia and Americas; Europe looks at Europe. Europe is inclined to apply principles of multilateralism; US, and Bushin particular" tend to see world in traditional great-power terms. National interest, diplomatic leadership and protection of military might are what matter. International treaties and global norms merely constrain America's sovereignty" (27). Europeans see this as unilateralism, while Americans often see Europeansas" grandstanding free-riders, willing to lecture America about death penalty but less willing than they should be to spend money to make their troops effective" .[For example of worry that antagonism towards US alsohelps Europeans define their own identity, Economist cites Kissinger. Up-to-date:Gregg Easterbrook "Europe Builds Itself Up at Bush's Expense" New York Times 17 Jun.] "At this point, transatlantic relationship is at point of divergence[but unique]institutional, economic and cultural ties...set limit to further deterioration" .May be further drift, or revival of transatlantic alliance as "partnership of equals" . Remember how much US and Europe "still have in common, and what they could do together if they put their minds to it" (27).

 

The Economist 23 Jun 01 "Patents and the Poor: The Right to Good Ideas" (Special Report 21-3):-very useful essay seeks to clarify background to:(1)life-saving(patented)drugs being obscenely over-priced for world's poor in desperate need of them; and(2)patents being granted to Western corporations for natural species/products that have been used in many societies for centuries.(History of global AIDS-medication cost issue: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS on AIDS-PATENTS.)Report argues "intellectual-property rights" (patents, copyright, trademarks) are now "one of most contentious areas in international development" . "Knowledge economy" and globalization have given enormous(potential)value to unique -if temporary- right to globally exploit new idea. Hence world-wide system was agreed to on "trade-related aspects of intellectual-property rights" or TRIPS; World Trade Organization members must abide by its minimum standards of legal protection. It "does not create single universal patent system" but it "lays down list of ground rules describing legal protection" national systems must provide to items/ideas meeting certain criteria of novelty. Rules are "not just for rich world. Carefully constructed, they can help poorest too" . However, TRIPS has not brought poorest countries hoped-for flood of foreign direct investment, and Third World governments worry particularly about access to medicines and protection of traditional resources. Many also want clarification of TRIPS provisions/exceptions related to public health/environment andamendments on life-form patenting. In fact some of biggest concerns are misdirected at TRIPS. Poorest countries' drug-cost crises reflect inability to afford even much cheaper generic copies legally produced in Third World, let alone health systems to administer them. Less poor countries can use escape clauses( "compulsory licensing" ;" parallel importing" ). Vast scale/complexity of AIDS pandemic will inevitably demand massive assistance anyway. Regarding "biopiracy" , world-wide concern is starting to bring necessarychange/action, but "new models will probably be needed to protect...traditional knowledge" .

 

The Economist 21 Jul 01 "Piracy in Asia: Dangerous Waters" (35-6):-report on escalating problem of piracy at sea builds on 18 Dec 99 and leads to 12 Jun 04 articles(op.cit.),and includes map of Southeast Asia with locations of pirate attacks in 2000. ICC International Maritime Bureau(IMB)reported 460+ worldwide - 56% increase on 1999. UN International Maritime Organization(IMO), moreover, suspects half incidents gounreported. While most involve" petty theft by unemployed fishermen and opportunistic criminals" , they range up to highly-organized, gang-operated hijacking. Favourite "pirate zones" remain Indonesia's extensive waters(119 incidents)and narrow Malacca Strait (75)between Sumatra and Malaysia/Singapore, one of world's busiest" choke-points" transited by 200+ ships daily. IMB blames recent increases in piracyon Indonesian situation, but "legal loopholes are also to blame" . As most Asian states' laws on piracy are now inadequate, model national piracy law is being drafted. Jurisdictional limits present other problems: few Asian states have ratified IMO convention providing legal framework to chase, prosecute and extradite pirates. Still, regional cooperation is expanding. IMO foresees common code of practice to investigate high-seas crimes while IMB now monitors ship movements and coordinates cross-border chases.

 

The Economist 18 Aug 01 "The Politics of Human Rights" (Edit.9) "HUMAN RIGHTS: Righting Wrongs" (Special Report 18-20):-problem arose in early UN: whether human rights relate only to political and civil rights (freedom from torture, of speech, to vote), broadly proclaimed in 48 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, OR whether two types of human rights: more specifically defined 66 in legally-binding treaties:International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights; International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights. First mainly amplified Declaration. Latter reflected strong(or only)suit of Communistmembers/priorities of LDCs and dealt with vital human benefits like food/health/housing/jobs/literacy. Paststress of NGOs like Amnesty International(AI)and Human Rights Watch(HRW)was to shame states intoensuring political and civil rights; however new interest of NGOs/UN bodies in furthering economic/ social rights too. Over-riding need of many poor countries to raise economic/health standards is cited ascreating moral/legal obligations. Examine implications of thus broadening human rights. Since bothkinds of rights are susceptible to legal codification, only issue is whether expanding concept of human rights "makes sense" .Cost differences may seem more clear-cut: most "negative liberties" (freedom of/from..)are cheap to provide, while "positive liberties" (minimum health/education)can be extremely costly; yet providing elections /justice is also expensive. "[M]ost telling arguments against adoption of universaleconomic and social rights...are practical. New rights have to be defined in vaguest, most general, terms if they are to be plausibly universal in scope.[They]will either mean nothing.,.or if intention is to move from stating rights to enforcing laws, they will be constitutionally dangerous. Vague laws would...require courts rather than governments to settle arguments about social justice ...subordinating popular will torule, not of law, but of judges" .Finally, defence of basic freedoms is so widely supported, NGOs like AI, dedicated to this end, carry moral authority; but socio-economic policies so highly political, advocating themrisks "tainting" human rights-concerned NGOs doing so as partisan. Reuters "Amnesty Extends Fight to Economic, Social Rights" NYT 25 Aug:-reports AI's annual conference overcame any such concerns; decided to push economic/social as well as political rights. Comments by AI's new SG Irene Khan may acknowledge dangers/constraints, however. Stressed: "What is different is that, from now on, we will [campaign] against all forms of discrimination[political or economic].[Anti-discrimination approach wouldlargely avoid "standards" dilemma, though still creating financial challenges.]She also said AI's" big step" was to campaign "for right to things such as education and health" ,thus highlighting two relatively non-partisanbenefits. Time will tell if such focused tactics are planned,and successful. In-depth look at AI's past tactics/ successes reviewed in Foreign Affairs Vol.80/No.5(Sep/Oct 01)Ann Marie Clark Diplomacy of Conscience: Amnesty International and Changing Human Rights Norms(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press 01). Claims AI's effectiveness had several sources:" reliance on internationally endorsed principles, its political independence and expert-based impartiality, and its credible fact-finding" .Can these continue? Economist08 Sep 01 LETTERS "Human Rights and Wrongs" (16):-contains six excellent replies to above arguments. First, by Mary Robinson, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, is, not surprisingly, most persuasive. She inter alia points out" growing body of jurisprudence is helping to flesh out [economic/social/cultural] rights. Far from being'undefinable and undeliverable', they can be measured and indeed already are" .Panel monitors compliance with Covenant on basis 145 country reports. Clincher is that "impossible to enjoy human dignity, freedom and equality without food, health or shelter" .Four of other five correspondents also support economic/social rights, main arguments being: political rights actually cost more than basic health/education; relevant legislation can be as detailed/enforceable as legislator wishes, thus constraining litigation and "rule by judges" ; moral basis of viewing food/health/education etc. as basic human rights is obvious to many, but for some they are matters of life and death; basic health care/education for world's poorest, costs much less than arms; "tainting" of HR organizations with concern for economic/social rights is much less than produced by ignoring them. "Anti" argument builds on concern that economic/social rights really legalize demands by poor on rich, and hide" attempt to put teeth into hoary socialist dream of global wealth redistribution" .

 

The Economist 20 Nov 03 "The International Criminal Court: For Us Or Against Us?" :-possibly the most critical Editorial of Economist against disgusting US foreign policy in history. "Some 70 countries, representing 40% of world's population, have now signed bilateral agreements with US exempting US citizens - and often their own - from prosecution by ICC. According to John Bolton, US under-secretary for international security, US' s ultimate goal is to conclude such pacts with every country in the world. Court, he complains, runs 'contrary to...basic constitutional principles of popular sovereignty/checks/balancesand national independence.'ICC first permanent international body able to try individuals for war crimes/genocide/crimes against humanity. Set up under 98 Statute of Rome, it has jurisdiction over citizens of countries which have both signed/ratified Rome statute - known as 'state parties' - as well as overthose suspected of committing atrocities on territory of a state party. Court is backed by nearly half world's nations, including all members of European Union and all but one(Turkey)of US' s NATO allies. YetUS arm-twisting of many...closest allies has at times been ferocious. Under US Servicemembers' Protection Act, passed last year, administration threatened to cut all military aid to those countries which had ratified Rome statute, but unwilling to sign bilateral impunity agreements with US. NATO members and certain other allies were exempted. But some NATO candidates were warned that failure to enter into such pacts would put their candidacy at risk. Many third-world countries, heavily dependent on US largesse,scrambled to comply. But others dug in their heels... Bush administration announced suspension of $millions military aid to 35 of ICC's supporters who refused bilaterals. Included Colombia, third-largest recipient of US military aid and one of US' s key partners in its war on drugs, as well as several countriesthat provided troops for war against Iraq. Four, including Colombia, have since had their aid restored after signing...But 31 others face losing further $89m in military aid in fiscal year. [Summary of less 50%.]

 

The Economist 10 Apr 04 "South Africa: A Town Like Alice" (37-9):-unusually informative about successes, failures and prospects of South African situation after first decade of democracy. Most material drawn from current status of Alicedale, once relatively successful apartheid society/economy built on providing watering-stop for steam trains, but closed in 96. Description that not only has relevance to republic, but history that can be applicable in numbers of other cultures in world. Issues discussed include general policies ofAfrican National Congress(ANC),liberation movements that ruled country since apartheid finally ended;employment trends/serious problems of black and white inhabitants; important yet inadequate welfare,education/training, housing, legal situations; fastest-growing/valuable tourism industry. End describesinadequate - but widespread - local policy falling totally behind HIV/AIDS situation. For good account ofstatus and prospects of South African railway system and national airline(Transnet, state transport monopoly),see Economist 17 Apr 04 "Face Value: Getting Africa Moving" (64)on Maria Ramos.

 

The Economist 24 Apr 04 "Israel and the Palestinians: Gaza Isn't the End of It" (Edit.12-4); "Special Report: Has Something Really Changed?" (25-7):-all chronic issues analysed and delays or outcomes discussedoffered with much thoughtful information about current possibilities.[So worth reading, even if your own views differ.]Major point relates to Gaza. "Belligerent" Israeli PM Ariel Sharon's "plan to withdraw unilaterally from Gaza strip, lesser (and grimmer)part of future would-be-independent Palestinian state, seems to be winning backing both of his own Likud party and of most Israelis.[From George Bush]he got just about everything he had hoped for, including annexation of chunks of territory in West Bank" (25)i.e.includes Gaza but not all remainder to Palestinians. Moreover "'Long-term interim agreements' have been favourite ploy of[Sharon:i.e.]making tactical concessions to preserve stalemate in battle against Palestinian nationalism, in hope that Palestinians will eventually give up. On paper... Sharon now accepts idea of two-state solution...But sort of Palestinian state that might emerge if security barrier now being built follows route that digs deep into Palestinian territory would hardly be viable entity that Bush, let alone other involved outsiders, would accept as bare minimum...Bush and Sharon did, however, accept that fence may be temporary" .(26) This is most important subject but items also discuss such tough issues as Palestinian refugees continuing bilateral deaths, Arafat's role, need to re-establish negotiating table, changing views of Arab/European states, and international aid to Palestinians. Related article, "Israel's Nukes: Vanunu's Story" (26), describes chronic Israeli view on having nuclear weapons, reminded by "whistleblower" 's jail release. Economist 03 Jul 04 "Israel and Palestine" (37); ":Who's Winning the Fight?" (38):-items on conflict almost weekly, but these see past, present and future, and predict movement. "[Sharon]may once more push ahead with his plan to leave Gaza, while seeking to consolidate Israel's hold on bigger swathe of West Bank than Palestinians are wont to accept in overall peace package.[US]seems keen to clinch Gaza withdrawal first, then move on later to negotiations over West Bank. No less hopefully, Egyptians ...seem to be going along with that idea too. Jordanians warily approve.[Israel]made it clear that reprisals and incursions could continue before, during and after a withdrawal.[Sharon]would like Egyptians to have degree of control over Palestinians in Gaza, just as he may still hope for similar Jordanian co-operation in West Bank. [A]t least diplomacy is no longer frozen" (37). Other item has chart of Palestinians/Israeli civilians/Israeli forces deathseach month since 2000. Comments: no lack of potential suicide-bomber recruits; ICJ may declare barrier illegal. Economist 14 Aug 04 "Israel's Far Right: Ariel Sharon Is a Sissy" (42); "Israel and Palestine: Blaming Arafat" (73-4):- both items are filled with information about why situation has been long-term chronic mess. First is up to date, but describes some of history, capacities and murder carried out byJewish terrorists. They may try to kill Sharon and/or make movement out of Gaza even more difficult. Second item consists of reviews of two new and well-written books about failure of almost-successful peacemaking. Dennis Ross, The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace(Farrar, Straus and Giroux);and Yossi Beilin, The Path to Geneva: The Quest for a Permanent Agreement, 1996-2004(RDV Books).Both are inclined to see final negative role by Yasser Arafat. Ross book also commented on in detail/ praise by Samuel W.Lewis "The Receding Horizon" Foreign AffairsVol.6/No.5(Sep/Oct 04).Economist 02 Oct 04 "Palestine and Israel: Break That Bloody Stalemate" (Edit.14-5); "Palestine: A Bloody Vacuum" (23-5):-both items offer well-researched information on Palestinians - their recent past, painful present(in Gaza and West Bank)and possible future. Items specifically include thoughtful comments on current and possibly future role of Yasser Arafat, and those who are hoping/liable to replace his central position. Summary of the Special Report is: "Stalemate between Palestinians and Israelis looks total, but internal rows on both sides offer a shred of hope." Economist 23 Oct 04 "Israel's Unlikely Dove" (Edit.11); "Israel and Palestine: Leaving Gaza, Maybe, and To an Uncertain Fate" (22-4):-Summary of Special Report is: "Ariel Sharon's plan to evacuate Jewish settlements from Gaza is causing outrage in Israel and slipping beyond its author's control." Key excerpts:(1) "Sharon's lawyer and adviser says plainly beauty of disengaging from Gaza is that Israel is thereby doing'minimum possible',while removing Palestinian statehood'indefinitely'from its agenda. But however much they mistrust him, Palestinians cannotbe seen to be asking Sharon to prolong any part of occupation. So Palestinian diplomacy now focuses ontrying to connect Israel's Gaza plan to larger questions of statehood and West Bank...Since neither Israel/US will deal directly with Arafat, Palestinians need mediator. Enter, backstage, Omar Suleiman,Egypt's head of intelligence. President Hosni Mubarak has asked [him]to co-operate with both Israelis and Palestinians in order to help Israel leave Gaza, make its leaving consistent with[US]road map, andpersuade Israelis and Americans that Palestinians are indeed reliable partners." (2) "Israel already tackleswith talk of violent opposition, military disobedience and even civil war if Sharon takes on settlermovement without clear mandate from people..Sharon seems..warmed to idea of national referendum -even though this would ensure further delay without ensuring final victory." Summary of Editorial: "The world is entitled to suspect his motives. But Ariel Sharon's plan to leave Gaza still deserves support." Economist 30 Oct 04 "The Palestinians: After Arafat" (Edit.11); "Israel's Withdrawal From Gaza: Round One To the Doves" (51-2); "The Palestinians: Adieu, Arafat?" (52):-inter-related discussions: effects of Yasser Arafat's serious illness(death)& Ariel Sharon's hard political options after winning positive Gaza-withdrawal vote in Knesset. Khalil Shikaki "The Future of Palestine" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.6(Nov/Dec 04):-author Director of Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, and wrote with bothexpertise and concern about Arafat's outdated views before he became ill/died. Varied Palestinian leaders/ personalities/youth, experiences, and groups identified/described, as well as improvable outcome of a Palestinian election if Israel were willing to permit one. Fair election strongly advocated in interest ofsolving crisis with Israel. "Q&A: Henry Siegman on Yasir Arafat" Council on Foreign Relations 10 Nov 04:-offers interview with CFR director of US/Middle East Project. He said that Abu Mazen, who opposes terrorism, "presents opportunity for resuming Middle East peace talks if Israel and US, both of which refused to negotiate with Arafat, drop their opposition to negotiations aimed at permanent Palestinian-Israelipeace." "Q&A: David Makovsky: Prospects for Middle East Peace" Council on Foreign Relations 15 Dec 04:-offers interview with director of Project on Middle East Peace Process at Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He said "changes in Israel and in Palestinian Authority(PA)opened'windows of opportunity that have not existed for many years' . There is now chance to end violence between the two sides and 'revive trust between Palestinians and Israelis' ." Steven Erlanger "A Modest Proposal: Israel Joining NATO" New York Times 19 Dec 04:-" one of most intriguing[new ideas]is suggestion that Israel...consider joining NATO. Idea, at least, is that closer ties to NATO - and perhaps eventual membership - would embed Israel in West and, by providing security guarantees, give it more confidence to make comprehensive peace...Of course prospect of closer ties with Israel would create debate within NATO, especially in absence of a final Israeli-Palestinian settlement. But first Israel itself needs to talk through military and political pros and cons."

 

The Economist 01 May 04 "IDENTITY CARDS: Dangerous Data" (Edit.15); ":Will They Work?" (57-8):-someglobal dilemmas are being quickly amplified by two related trends:(1)new threats, and good or critical expansions, always created by accelerating technology e.g. modernized terrorism; (illegally)transferred beings and goods; rapidly accumulating health knowledge; financial movement/credits/debts/taxes; many types of committed/planned crime; etc.;(2)rapid but correct identification of individuals; valued property;dangers/rules/answers; knowledge transfer/creation, etc. Both multiple trends have pressured governments(and large companies)to design and make essential sophisticated "cards" . These articles report, with some detail and lots of complications, British government plans to create/issue "the most ambitious and intrusive national identity card scheme in Europe...Britons want cards to help stop illegal immigrants from working or using public services, and to fight terrorism and reduce fraud. They will compromise on personal privacy" (57). Economist is more cautious:" The real danger lies not in small plastic cards but in huge databases" (15). Material transits can be inhibited in cards/databases by strict jigsaws.

 

The Economist 15 May 04 "War in Sudan:Don't Forget It" (Edit.10) "Special Report on Sudan: Fleeing the Horsemen Who Kill For Khartoum" (21-3):-reports:(1)cautious agreement about an encouraging but uncertain "comprehensive peace" to end north-south civil war since 1957;(2)bloody/displacing attacksdirected by government against western Darfur region whose newly armed people feared being excluded. North-south war started at Sudan's independence by black non-Moslems living over southern half of largest African state, who sought autonomy from Moslem and Arabic north. War killed 2 million(mostly civilians)and became even more fierce when new Sudan oil concession areas were hugely located in south. Under mostly US pressure/promise, both groups finally agreed on series of agreements and "to share power for six years, after which south will be allowed referendum on whether or not to secede...In west and east of country, regions utterly neglected by state , those who feel left out -in particular, in[black Moslem]Darfur-have taken up arms. Government has evidently determined to crush them with such ferocity that otherSudanese are too scared to follow suit" .Its militia is acting so viciously, it is drawing US anger -and soonUN. Economist 29 May 04 "Sudan: Peace in the South, War in the West" (Edit.14) "Sudan: A Triumph Marred By Terror" (48): bring developments up: Sudan's "government and southern rebels surmounted last obstacles in way of peace. [W]ar between north and south...appear[s]to be over. Proposed transitional government will not be pretty...but war is uglier...In western region of Darfur, government is fighting two black Muslim rebel groups...Some 1.2m [blacks]have been driven from their homes, and perhaps 30,000 killed.[A]id workers predict that between 150,000 and 350,000 people will die in next nine months from hunger and disease if Sudan's government does not stop hindering relief efforts" .Economist 03 Jul 04 "Sudan: Dousing the Frames of Darfur" (Edit.13) "Sudan: The Calamity Continues" (39):continue report: "Actions in Darfur...have created arguably worst humanitarian crisis in world today. Arab-dominated regime Khartoum is fighting revolt there by discontented blacks and has been driving black Darfuris fromsmoking remains of homes. Most of driving is done by mounted militia called janjaweed which governmentarms but pretends not to...USAID predicted...1m might die if help did not come fast" .UNSG Annan and US Secretary of State Powell visited Sudan to threaten government with UNSC sanctions, but offer aidwhen/where can. Economist 31 Jul 04 "Sudan Can't Wait: Genocide in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: The World Notices Darfur" (39-40):both describe international details US and Britain in particular are facing when tryingto end terrible action by janjaweed actions against people of Darfur, and serious food absence for millions. Third Darfur item, "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40),has Summary in sections due to future relevance of legality UN action/inaction. Economist 28 Aug 04 "Sudan: Crunch Time in Darfur" (Edit.11) "Sudan: Decision Time in Sudan" (39-40) "Darfur's Rebels: No Angels" (40):-there have been frequent/appalling Editorials/articles in past months, but trio is worth reading even if you do not want to scan them all. It contains a large amount of new information on complexities of this situation. Unfortunately much could be relevant to other African/Arab/illogical states and UN delay in crisis. Economist11 Dec 04 "Southern Sudan: The Refugees Prepare To Return Home" (45):-as noted in May items, slownorth-south peace negotiations continued/maybe ended, while western genocide continued, despitesmall/slow intervention in Darfur by African troops. South now seems prepared for peace/important resettlement takes place/is described.

 

The Economist 22 May 04 "Suicide Bombers: Shireen and Others Like Her" (76-7):-article is dedicated to analysing what drives suicide bombers "to their ghastly deeds" . It consists of the reviews of three books: Christoph Reuter, My Life is a Weapon: A Modern History of Suicide Bombing (Princeton Univ. Press), 200pp, $24.95; Barbara Victor, Army of Roses: Inside the World of Palestinian Women Suicide Bombers(Rodale Press), 320 pp, $25.95; and John Fullerton, Give Me Death (Macmillan), 352 pp, 16.99 pounds.

 

The Economist 29 May 04 "Haiti: Misery Upon Misery" (35-6):-another tragedy has hit poorest country in Americas. Torrential rains smashed a border region between Dominican Republic and Haiti," unleashing floods and devastating mudslides" . About 2,000 people were reported killed, half in one Haitian town alone. Meanwhile 8m Haitians already under some control by multi-national forces, attracted by a political revolt but soon replaced by a formal UN peacekeeping force. Transitional government of technocrats is alreadyheaded by a former UN official - and that raises increasing global needs for UN to run nations collapsed "out of control" . Here are Haiti excerpts: " [State has]no army...and a small and ill-armed policeforce...For most Haitians, life is all about survival. Two-thirds of them lack a proper job. The price of ricehas almost doubled since January. Mountains of rubbish have piled up in the streets. In Port-au-Prince, there is no water and almost no electricity for those who cannot afford generators. Good roads exist onlyin the memory of those old enough to remember better days. Estimates of the cost of the looting anddestruction of property in February[revolt]range[$100-300m]. Public services collapsed. That was a body blow to an economy already wounded by years of mismanagement, general instability, a UN embargo in the early 1990s and a suspension of foreign aid after 2000. The only growth business has been thetracking of Colombian cocaine...A readier source of cash[than aid]is the $1billion that the Haitians livingabroad send back home each year. That amounts to three times the country's exports or the government'sbudget. Most of this money is spent on foods and clothes. It helps to pay for survival, not reconstruction. Haitians are growing angry over rising food prices[,but]Haiti's failures are rooted in its history[and]also in its social and racial divisions" .

 

The Economist 05 Jun 04 "United States Battling Proliferation: Win Some, Lose Some" (25-6):- "Bushafter[11 Sep] attacks, promis[ed]to face down threat from spread of weapons of mass destruction.[He]will be pressing hard for curbs on proliferation to be treated as epoch-shaping issue.[M]essage...helpedconvince Libya...to speed its exit out of elicit mass-destruction business.[A]larming tales since emerged of..wholesale auctioning off of Pakistan's nuclear technologies, not just to Libya, but to North Korea, Iranand possibly others, led UN Security Council[at Bush's urging]to pass resolution obliging all governments to criminalise illicit weapons and technology transfers...Yet despite these diplomatic successes, andmoney being spent on securing'loose nukes' ,...strategy still has plenty of critics.[While US was focused on Iraq,]North Korea went on building more bombs[,]Iran thumbed its nose at[IAEA and otherswere]encouraged...to redouble their bomb-building." Many other relevant US activities and inconsistencies reported towards India/Iraq/Iran/Israel/North Korea. "Stricter enforcement of anti-proliferation rules has been hallmark of[Bush, since bin Laden/al-Qaeda positions]cast problem of treaty-breaking by roguegovernments with terrorist links in alarming new light.[S]trategy has had some success" :EO and Russian anti-proliferation action. "Bush wants to see greater restrictions on dangerous uranium-enrichment and plutonium-reprocessing technologies[,yet wants to keep US nuclear]test-site bit readier." Economist 03 Jul 04 "North Korea: Nuclear Chess" (35-6)and "Europe and Iran: A Common Flop" (42):-both comment on US' s differing history/negotiations with these two nuclear-threatening states. Regarding North Korea, concludes "may be hoping for deal to its liking if John Kerry wins US presidential election in Nov. MeanwhileGeorge Bush in no rush either.[S]cotched criticism from allies and Kerry alike by showing...negotiating seriously. He has not yet sacrificed anything in nuclear game with North Korea, and maybe gained a little." Second article, dealing with both European and US negotiations, concludes "Iran and Europeans seem now to be playing for time, awaiting outcome of Nov's presidential election in US. But whoever wins,US is unlikely to tolerate nuclear-arming Iran. Some Europeans hope that new administration might try talking to Iran. But, with US tied up in Iraq, Iranians may calculate time is on their side and - so long as IAEA finds nothing new - that Europeans will never agree among themselves to tougher line. If so, far from being success for Europe's common... policy, Iran could become big irritant in relations between US and Europe" .

 

The Economist 12 Jun 04 "India's Economic Reforms: Can India Work?" (67-9):-excellent Special Reporton present and future prospects of state that is not only growing at major rate but may also have larger population than China soon. Compares potentials faced now by Manmohan Singh, new Congress prime minister, with his tough reform role as finance minister in 1991. This time he inherits economy growing at more than 8% a year and far from crisis. Current(and 91)figures displayed: Population - billion: 1.06(0.87);GDP$trillion(ppp): 2.86(1.23); GDP per person $(ppp): 2,690(1,420); Consumer prices,% increase on year ago: 3.8(13.9); Exports, $billion: 56.0(17.7); Imports, $billion: 71.0(20.4). But" two reasons toworry[essential] reform may be under threat" : (1)" Congress owes its victory in part to dissatisfaction with incumbent state governments and in part to support of populist parties from two big states, West Bengaland Bihar" .States have role on reform contents/application. (2)" Congress has only 145 of 545 seats in parliament. [I]t is in coalition with parties identified with narrow regional interests, hostile to reform, and[it]also relies on'outside'support of India's communist parties. Last situation has forced concessions onreforms of privatisation/ labour laws/power sector. Admirable/realistic goals include: annual growth of 7-8%, alleviating poverty, helping farmers, empowering women, raising spending on health/education; but "reform is about removing obstacles" .Bulk of report is then about prospects. Economist 10 Jul "India's Budget: High-Wire Act" (37):-new government's budget is described as balanced but hardly inspiring compromise between Congress, communists, and parties that represent India's poorest. It may not have upset anyone, but it has also done little to advance reform. Finance minister has promised to shrink deficit, but has introduced no action on privatization, subsidy slashing, or radical reform of labour laws.Agriculture(livelihood of 70%)and rural areas were provided support and incentives, "including doubling ofagricultural credit...,widespread water schemes, and help for diversification into new farm products and foodprocessing" .On industry, new commission announced to boost both foreign and domesticinvestment." Increases should help to boost India's poor record on investment inflows, which fell 2003-04from $4.7b to $4.5b(tiny fraction of what China takes). Limits, though, are only part of it: foreign investment is mostly restricted by foreign companies' frustrations with India's bureaucracy.,.poor public services andinfrastructure ...This is not end of reform in India, nor is it inspiring start for new government's efforts to advance it" . Economist 17 Jul "India: Closing the Gap" (42-3):-Palaniappan Chidambaram, new finance minister, and top-level staff, already "starting work on reforms for his full annual budget" in Feb, even though government is facing attacks on interim budget(above). "Reforms in next budget...will focus on taxation, subsidies and development expenditures" . Economic/social scale/complexity/impact of proposals are outlined in articles, but may be changed before budget. Yet global magnitude of Indian prosperity soimportant(1b+ people),whole world may hope major reforms succeed. Economist 25 Sep "India and America: Joining the Big Boys' Club" (54):-meeting of PM Manmohan Singh with US President Bush took place during joint Sep visit to UNGA in New York. Just prior to meeting, certain US sanctions on India were lifted; they were originally imposed when it exploded five nuclear bombs in 98, as a declared nuclear power that had not signed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. According to statement, Indian relations with US "had never been as close" ,and US is now "expanding co-operation...in civilian nuclear power, spaceprogrammes and high technology trade, and discussing missile defences. Indian officials...were keen to portray this as evidence that US now accepts India as serious international partner." Indeed India seems to have achieved its hope that its nuclear test would force US to pay it "serious, sustained and respectful attention." Meanwhile India is submitting joint bid for permanent UNSC membership with Brazil, Germany and Japan. Economist 09 Oct "India: Cohabiting, For Now" (37-8); "India's North-East: The Terror Spreads" (38); "Nuclear Proliferation: A Game For All To Play" (38-9):-all 3 items make above key/positive reports on India more complex. Inserted together, in order, under Economist 09 Oct 04.

 

The Economist 12 Jun 04 "Shipping in South-East Asia: Going For the Jugular" (37-8):-18 Dec 99 and 21 Jul 01 items on serious pirate threats just off Asia, were summarized(op.cit.). Latest report offers even more facts, and concern about future. Shocking 2003 piracy map covers South-East Asia including all of Indonesia, plus Bangladesh, China, India, Sri Lanka coasts. Enlarged Strait of Malacca insert shows dangerous Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore shipping lane. "Some 50,000 vessels, carrying roughly a quarterof the world's maritime trade, pass through the strait every year. So do about half of all seaborne oilshipments, on which economies of Japan, China and South Korea depend. If terrorists were determined to devastate the world economy, it would be hard to find better target" . Concern is developingover "regional maritime security initiative" since strait and its littoral countries now "account for about a third of all pirate attacks in world" - and tripled over past decade. Strait is still "relatively poorly monitored" largely due to weak Indonesia. Thai-proposed land transit over Isthmus seems naive, but UNInternational Maritime Organization has" ruled that all vessels over 300 tonnes must install trackingsystem" before 2005.

 

The Economist 19 Jun 04 "The Bush Administration And the Torture Memo: What On Earth Were They Thinking?" (31-2):-since 11 Sep 01 disaster, there has been discussion in West on how US should handle serious prisoners. See Ignatieff, The Lesser Evil: Political Ethics in an Age of Terror; Wedgwood/Roth, "Combatants or Criminals? How Washington Should Handle Terrorists" Foreign Affairs(both op.cit.). "[N]ew and... embarrassing for Mr. Bush is detailed evidence that main source of legal opinion for his administration - office of legal counsel in Department of Justice - has been giving advice that Americans may(in normal sense of term)torture people abroad.[S]omebody leaked full text to Washington Post. [D]etails make ugly reading for any friend of[US]. Memo, which dates from Aug 02, looks at sections of legal code...which implements UN Convention against Torture. It claims torture can be justified on three grounds" . (1)US law "was intended to proscribe only most egregious conduct" : torture is more than just cruel/inhuman punishment.(2)President can do whatever he wants in war: this power ignores Congress' greater constitutional power.(3)US torturers could be prosecuted only if their main purpose was to inflict pain.Wedgewood says memo "defines its task oddly...[I]t asks 'what can we do and remain within law?'" .Memo ignores or glides over US/international laws that ban or limit torture. In practice, US" authorized techniques seem to fall well outside even normal definitions of torture" .Economist 26 Jun 04 "The Torture Controversy: Fanning the Flames" :-more controversial information about Bush regime military practice. It releasedhundreds of pages from prisoner-torture memos; Justice Department said it was rewriting its legal advice on how tough US interrogators can be. Memo collection" provides evidence for both sides" ,e.g. Rumsfeld authorized for two months" list of coercive techniques...including giving permission for prisoners to be stripped naked, terrorised with dogs and interrogated for up to 20 hours" .At UN, US dropped its attempt to extend resolution giving its troops immunity from war crimes, " something other countries felt wasattempt to undermine International Criminal Court" .In Afghanistan: Rumsfeld designated one particularprisoner'non-person', "insisting that his name be removed from all official records" ; US has "reserved rightnot to observe Geneva Conventions when handling suspected al Qaeda fighters" ; Guardian reports five or more suspects have died in US custody, with no prosecution although at least three were ruled homicides; and it details abuse allegations, including prisoners beaten, humiliated, forced into pain.

 

The Economist 19 Jun 04, "Arab Women: Their Time Has Come" (13-4); "Out of the Shadows, Into the World" (Special Report 26-8):-most useful sources; here are virtual extracts: "Slowly,..female half of population beginning to find a voice.[R]ecommendations that went to[ruler of Saudi Arabia]would change matters somewhat, if they are ever enacted...Slowly but surely, too, the lot of Saudi women is improving, just as it has been for women in most Arab countries...Now, some 55% of[Saudi]university students are female. Similar trends can be seen elsewhere... [F]emale education has improved faster in Arab countriesthan in any other region...Arab performance in improving women's health is also unmatched. Female life expectancy is up from 52 years in 1970 to more than 70 today... Number of children borne by average Arab woman has fallen by half in past 20 years, to a level scarcely higher than world norms...In large Arabcities, high cost of housing, added to need for women to pursue degrees or start careers, is promptingmany to delay marriage into their 30s...In all but three of 22 countries in Arab League, women have right to vote and run for office...Arab women also work as ambassadors, government ministers, top business executives and even...army officers...Yet[they]should not rest complacent. It is for good reason that UN's devastating, and much-quoted, Arab Human Development Report cites women's rights...as main challenge facing region.[Also]do not adequately measure...destructive social impact of habits such asfemale circumcision, ..polygamy,..or "honour killings" ...Across Arab region...only a third of adult women have jobs.[As]disturbingly, movement towards equality in some Arab countries has shunted into reverse...Rise of[Iraqi]religious radicalism has prompted many to adopt veil, out of fear as much asconviction...Aside from giving them short stick on inheritance, and having their testimony in law consideredhalf as weighty as men's and letting husbands marry up to four wives, whom they may beat if they are disobedient, Koran itself is not unkind to women...Trouble lies more in how holy text-as well as...Prophet's sayings...-are interpreted.[Yet]Arabs, even men...acknowledge need for improvement...Reformers will eventually get their way. For report on Iraqi situation see Swanee Hunt(op.cit.).

 

The Economist 03 Jul 04 "The Supreme Court and Guantanamo Bay: Not Good Enough" (Edit.12); "The Supreme Court and Enemy Combatants: Too Far, Say the Judges" (23-4):-title/gist of many items on US handling of possible terrorists captured in combat areas after 11 Sep 01 are under Economist 19 Jun 04 "The Bush Administration..." . Locus of many such suspects has been Guantanamo, US army camp legally in Cuba." White House has managed to turn a generally reviled group of prisoners...into figures ofinternational sympathy...by denying these'enemy combatants' any semblance of western justice...[I]t hassought to deny detainees legal process of any kind, especially in US courts, deprived them of independentlegal advice and now intends to send them to military commissions...This week, US judicial system began long task of righting this huge wrong. Supreme Court said that Bush had right to hold combatants without trial but, crucially, it decided that detainees at Guantanamo could have recourse to US courts - something Bush has(disgracefully)fought...It could be years before independent courts resolve individualcases and it is unclear what rights of recourse detainees now have. However, by affirming that'state of war is not blank cheque for president', court struck important blow: 595 detainees in Cuba...will now start their various appeals to federal courts...So progress has been made. But it is plainly not enough, and it is also clumsy: judges are making US terrorist laws because politicians have not done so" (12). Supreme Court gave prisoners "one of oldest rights in book, writ of habeas corpus, which is way of challenging imprisonment by requiring explanation of why someone is being held...What sort of legal proceeding is appropriate? [C]ourt may be trying to nudge administration into some sort of Geneva Convention-like judicialprocess, perhaps allowing trials using lower standards of proof. [I]n future litigation...big effect of decisions will be to constrain executive power and force administration to submit to some(albeit unclear)level of judicial oversight.[D]ecisions may be early signs of changing attitude towards international law. Court's rulings on prisoners were rooted in US precedent and legal practices."

 

The Economist 10 Jul 04 "Weapons of Mass Destruction: If You Push, I'll Shove" (40-1):-gloomy report on Middle East nuclear prospects. Arabs fear Israel of possessing 200 nuclear bombs plus new deliveryforms; Israel points at chemical- and possibly biological-tipped missiles in neighbours. Balance of insecurity always uneasy, and may be eroding, even though Iraqi and Libyan nuclear developments wereundone. Head Mohamed ElBaradei of IAEA in Israel suggested it hold talks on nuclear-weapons-free zonein Middle East - before too late. He wants security talks in parallel with diplomacy, but opportunities so faroutweighed by threats. "Libya...helped expose vast global black market in uranium enrichment and other militarily useful skills centred on Pakistani scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan. Since Iran tapped into same illicit network, all this helped IAEA expose its 18 years of nuclear-safeguards violations: illegal nuclear experiments set out in series of reports for all to see. Yet, troubingly, Iran shows no sign yet of giving up dangerous technologies it has developed...Although Khan had admitted to selling his nuclear wares only to Iran, Libya and North Korea...suspicions others may have availed themselves of his services. Although all supposedly bound by their non-nuclear promise under NPT, few Arab governments have accepted more intrusivesafeguards and inspection regime [Economist 05 Jun "United States Battling Proliferation:.." op.cit.]. Saudi Arabia has no safeguards agreement with IAEA...Having helped..to finance both Libya's and Pakistan's nuclear weapons pursuits...it may have bought itself option on Pakistani bomb...Syria, which already has chemicaland biological weapons,...may now have covert uranium enrichment capability[and raises fears it could]acquire plutonium. If Iran[gets]bomb, it is not only Israel that might be alarmed. Egypt has potentially militarily useful nuclear skills and increasingly sophisticated missile programme. Algeria has suspiciously large nuclear reactor in Sahara, surrounded by missile defences.[E]ven Turkey...could reconsider non-nuclearpledge, should others in region seem about to renege on theirs. Much depends on whether Iran's nuclear ambitions can be checked before it has bomb.[F]inger-pointing could yet turn deadly."

 

The Economist 10 Jul 04 "Japan's Foreign Policy: From Pacifism to Populism" (Special Report 20-2):-analyses future of second-biggest, but most constitutionally-pacified, global power: "As Japan begins to stretch its long-unused military muscles, how far does it want to go and what can it do?" Both PM Junichiro Koizumi's innovation and increased international threats concerning Japanese people, producedchanging attitude. "Soon after 2001 attack [when Japan sank North Korean spy ship,]parliament passedspecial law authorizing ships from Maritime SDF[Self Defence Force]to help US fleet in Indian Ocean. Law restricted co-operation to refuelling and logistics, but Japan's navy, in effect, provided rear support for[Afghan]invasion...Last summer, parliament passed laws spelling out government's powers in event of attack on Japan's territory.[P]acifist nervousness had prevented enactment before.[PM]had also called for changes to constitution, including pacifist restrictions in Article 9.[B]ecause Asia is less coherent than European Union, Japan's regional role is in some ways even more important to US[whose] 45,000 troopsin Japan, and related air and naval bases,...allow US to project strength across region littered with potential hotspots.[A]lliance will grow more flexible and useful[,although critics]both in and around Japan...detect signs of resurgent right wing, and fear return of Japanese militarism.[Y]et Koizumi's eagerness[does not]imply sinister swing to far right. His foreign policies reflect clear and reasonable national interests and draw support from broad Japanese public, which shows little desire to remilitariseand start strong-arming neighbours...Voters do seem...dismayed...to include Japanese troops in new multinational force in Iraq...endorsed by UN.[P]ublic reaction does not appear to reflect attitudes towards deployment, since mission[now rebuilding quiet Iraqi town]will not change...Japan's conduct of foreign policyis arguably growing more democratic[,although in]1992 parliament passed law allowing SDF to ventureabroad as long as...part of UN mission,..when a ceasefire is in place, and when all parties to conflict agree that Japan can take part" .North Korean threats, including lobbing" medium-range Taepodong missile in 1998...over Japanese airspace into Pacific Ocean" ,have recently justified counter-action, but "most sensible way for Japan to gain influence is to start putting its substantial military resources...to work multilaterally.[Yet as great trader, it] wants to stay on good terms with as many countries as possible." Michael W. Donnelly "The Politics of Uncertainty in Japan" Behind the Headlines Vol.61/No.3(Sep. 04):-complements usefully the above item by describing those aspects of Japan's traditional society thatshould be modified, but may not be, even under relatively radical Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Parts of essay address important issues: Politics and Growing Economic Insecurity; Post-Bubble Blues; PartialEconomic Reform in Uncertain Times; Nascent Signs of Private-Sector-Led Economic Recovery; Emergence of New Forms of Governance; Military Security and Growing Public Anxiety. Conclusion ends: "How Japan continues to evolve will depend partly on political commitment and leadership of PM Koizumi. It is all but certain Japan will not move dramatically closer to liberal market economies like those of US/Canada. Less clear how much further Japan will move toward becoming'normal'state with respect to military security/diplomatic independence. In meantime, uncertainty marks the daily lives of Japanese."

 

The Economist 24 Jul 04 "Russia's Armed Forces: Heads Roll At Long Last" (48-9):-excessive cost ofUSSR armed forces - in attempt to match US as superpower - played critical role in bringing end to Cold War. Yet their gradual and reluctant, but vast financial, constraint had dangerous effects on intricate weapons, disarmament, and personnel - and gained US safety assistance. Some long-overdue actions havenow taken place, and may have positive impact. "Anatoly Kvashnin, Russian armed forces' chief of staffwho was fired...had spent most of his seven years in job in conflict with people meant to be his bosses[,civilian defence ministers. He]had blocked President Vladimir Putin's attempts to start transition fromconstrict army to leaner, professional one. But his civilian opponents outmanoeuvred him...when Duma passed law handing operational control of army to defence ministry and leaving generals in charge only of strategy.[R]umours of...dismissal began;...he asked to go." His reactionary acts had included: seizure ofKosovo airport during war; chronically sour relations with NATO; world view/threats as if Cold War had barely ended;" ran impressive exercises designed to repulse massive invasions from east and west" ; losses in Chechnya issue." [R]eplacement Yuri Baluyevsky seen as opponent of his mercurial, stubborn ex-boss; more desk man, strategist and military historian, who watches his words, stays out of politics and pragmaticabout co-operating with former foes. He has led disarmament talks and parleyed with NATO.[A]lso joint author of reform plans, which would slim ministry and military command. But what next?" Clean armed forcescorruption? Create volunteer army?

 

The Economist 31 Jul 04 "International Law and Genocide: Must Intervention Be Legal?" (40):-brief, usefully stated, item on whether/how world community could intervene in Darfur, west Sudan, where black Muslims attacked with authority of Arab Khartoum. Legal/political complications are well described, and unfortunately will be facing(or ignored by)global justice, perhaps for decades. "Under UN Convention on Genocide 1948, state signatories undertook to'prevent and punish'genocide[carefully defined].States may act alone or call on UN to take'appropriate'measures...Though Sudanese Arab militias have been targetingthree black African tribes, some Arab groups have also been attacked and some African ones spared. US Congress has called attacks genocide...African Union and various human-rights groups argue that threshold for genocide has not yet been crossed. It may not matter much, for under international law, there is no inherent right of armed humanitarian intervention, even to stop genocide. UN Charter only sanctions force in self-defence(Article 51)or when authorised by Security Council to prevent breach of peace or act of aggression(Chapter VII). It specifically forbids intervention'in matters which are essentially within domestic jurisdiction of any state',though this injunction can be overridden by Chapter VII authorisation...UN has, of course, intervened in past to stop gross violations of human rights...But it has only ever done so under Chapter VII in name of preserving peace." Darfur military intervention would draw vetos(as would have Kosovo). "Many governments, particularly poor and despotic ones, argue that national sovereignty should always trump humanitarian issues. Most western ones argue opposite. One way round possible veto would be to invoke UN'uniting for peace'resolution...UNGA may'recommend'measures, including use of force, tocounter threat to peace, if UNSC unable to act. But many reluctant to invoke instrument that they fear wouldundermine UNSC authority." Chad vital role in location uncertain. Without going through UN "need not beas drastic assault on international law as some legal sticklers fear.[I]ntervention could be justified with reference to NATO's campaign in Kosovo, which proceeded without UN approval. That might even set useful precedent for dealing with future catastrophes." [I would object to last.]

 

The Economist 21 Aug 04 "China's Growing Pains" (Edit.11-2); "China's Health Care: Where Are the Patients?" (20-4); "Business In China: Manacling the Mandarins" (52); "China's Environment: A Great Wall of Waste" (55-7); China's Economy: Dim Sums" (60-1):-five articles are both diverse but complementary in their key subjects. They offer a careful and globally-important analysis of what seems today's largest, fastest-growing/-changing state. Its role/policies/problems are now relevant not only to its billion-plus people, plus billions affected by Chinese global trade/finance, but also to future needs/hopes/threats of bothsimilar/poorer societies/economies/environments. Editorial notes "China has witnessed probably most dramatic burst of wealth creation in human history...But as with any vast transformation there has been price to pay[and]kinds of problem will..need imaginative policy changes to correct.[S]tate health-caresystem...has in effect collapsed.[L]ife-expectancy in parts...may actually now be falling. Diseases...are making their return...Pollution...is reaching scandalous proportions...China is home to 16 of world's 20 most polluted cities...Only two of growing pains that affect China as it continues its breakneck growth[yet]clear signs that government starting to shoulder its new responsibilities too...Still, solvingthese problems cannot be fast, easy or free of cost...[C]itizens will surely want greater say in how their money is spent... But of democracy...there is so far not slightest sign." Special Report on health careconcludes inter alia "whyChina's ...system is in such a mess is that central government's share of tax revenue has dropped in past 20 years...Strong incentives, such as tax breaks, will be needed to encourage privatebusiness to run hospitals on not-for-profit basis...In poor areas, including much of countryside,government will need to remain primary provider...China is beginning to discover that market forces alone cannot produce good health care." Article on business in China predicts: "courts could end up providingindependent check on the almost unfettered power of bureaucrats, transforming legal landscape for firms...China's bureaucrats will no longer be law unto themselves" .Special Report on environmentconcludes inter alia: "problems and their huge costs will dog China for many years.[I]t will be hard to knowof government's avowedly green policies are being implemented. But China deserves credit for its attempts to clean itself up. Balance between sustainable development and economic growth will have to becontinuously adjusted in future. Right now China probably moving in right direction." Article on economystresses: "Chinese economic statistics notoriously unreliable.[They]may be getting a bit better but rawofficial data still not much help.[Western experts conclude] measures aimed cooling China's economy over past year have worked" .

 

The Economist 21 Aug 04 "Russia: A Matter of Russian Honour" (Edit.13); "Former Soviet War Zones: The Hazards of a Long, Hard Freeze" (40-1); "South Ossetia: We Don't Want War, But..." (41):-Editorial/articlereflect justifiable concern: number of post-WW II states is still suffering ability even to survive, and hurting their populations as result. One group of newly-independent states is those once part of dictatorship USSR.Both their own governments and that of Russia are often inclined to suffer instability. Items relate to three such states facing four rebel units whose imperfect status has been supported by Moscow. In Editorial, both President Putin and the West are urged to take corrective action: "Russia is working hard to regain respect and authority...But...Russia must respect other countries too, including places once ruled from Moscow. It will prosper more with friendly, confident countries around it - not weak, frustrated ones...Byoffering unconditional support to rebel regimes in Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,Russia dishonours itself/destabilizes its neighbourhood...Crisis needs delicate handling...South Ossetiais not viable state. It lives on crime. Its government needs to be closed down as part of generous settlementwhich Georgia now offers. Abkhazia, Georgia's other breakaway province, is tougher problem, and its local government even less legitimate. It speaks for even fewer of region's lawful residents.[Another]'frozen conflict'in region...is in Moldova, where another rebel statelet, Transdniestria, lives on smuggling and Russian guns. Then there is far bigger stand-off: over Nagorno-Karabakh...where decade ago Armenians broke free from Azerbaijan...All these conflicts destabilise countries." In Major Items, the origins,complexity, current situations of the four rebel movements are described. Long article concludes: "It may be time for the world to slop them out" .

 

The Economist 21 Aug 04 "The Tutsis: The'Jews' of Africa" (37-9):-article both substantial and useful. Offersmuch information about complex history involving Tutsis, including their 94 suffering of genocide in Rwanda, soon afterwards their overthrowing of terrible Congo(Zaire)government of Mobutu Sese Seko, andright up to current governments in area. Extracts here only include some special'social attitude'information affecting security." Central Africa could be stumbling towards another disastrous war.[I]t helps to examine Tutsis' relations with...neighbours ...Who are Tutsis? Some...argue that label is meaningless. But everyone in Rwanda, Burundi, Congo understands it. Stereotypical Tutsi looks like Rwanda's president, Paul Kagame:tall and thin, with a long thin nose. Other cliche about Tutsis is that they live by herding cattle, whereas theirsquat, flat-nosed neighbours(this includes Hutus) subsist by growing crops. In reality, differencesbetween...groups are blurred, and...plenty of intermarriage... Because insecurity makes people turn to theirtribe for protection, faultlines of war quickly become tribal. In this region, that often means Tutsis versus rest. Everywhere they live, Tutsis are small minority. In Rwanda, where they are perhaps 15% of population of 9m, they have been firmly in charge since 94...Public discussion of ethnic differences is, in effect,banned...In Burundi, Hutu-Tutsi relations have been improving, albeit from wretched base.[R]oughly same ethnic mix as Rwanda, but Tutsi elite has run it for much of its 40-odd years of independence, keeping majority down...Situation in Congo is most complex. Because it is so vast and thinly populated, refugees from its crowded, violent neighbours have been thronging there for over century. Some 5% of the 20m people in eastern Congo are now Tutsis. In all three countries, Tutsis feel besieged. Some Tutsis liken themselves to Israelis: they may be few in number and surrounded by enemies, but they survive because they are clever and well-organised, whereas those who would annihilate them are corrupt and incompetent. Many non-Tutsis take a less favourable view. Street talk is that Tutsis are cunning, duplicitous and bent on regional hegemony.

 

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "The Laws of War: Trials and Tribulations" (27-8):-article contains so much important information about legalism against/within Pentagon, select outline offered. Follows two groups ofEconomist articles summarized above: 19 Jun "The Bush Administration And the Torture Memo:..." and 03 Jul "The Supreme Court and Guantanamo Bay:..." , first phrases of first titles in each. Two badly-treated groups of US military "prisoners" were "legally" reported on. In Abu Ghraib, Iraqi jail, military prisoners were tortured by US; in Guantanamo Bay, perpetually leased US naval base in Cuba, status of 600 mostly-Afghanistan-captured, possibly terrorist individuals, had been viewed for years as unaffected byUS/Cuban/Afghan/international law. Two reports on responsibility for Abu Ghraib action: by Major-General George Fay, head of internal army inquiry, which blamed abuse on" small group of morally corrupt soldiers and civilians" ; by James Schlesinger, former defence secretary and head of independent panel, which attributes worst abuse to unauthorised" freelance" activities by soldiers, and makes 14 recommendations on how to avoid further brutalities. As regards Guantanamo Bay detainees, Supreme Court had ruled in Jun they had right to challenge their detention in US courts, "until now plunged into what has been described as legal black hole" .American Bar Association condemned" widespread pattern of abusive detention methods[which]feed terrorism by painting US as an arrogant nation above law" .Schlesinger urges government to "update" approach to international humanitarian law, taking particular heed of case for" reciprocity and preservation of US societal values international image that flows from adherence to recognised humanitarian standards." Administration has introduced military commissions to begin preliminary hearings in trials of first four detainees, 2.5 years after first terrorist suspects arrived. Pentagon insists tribunals will give detainees "full and fair" trials in accordance with international standards of justice, and states them.Military defence lawyers object. General arguments on both sides described.

 

The Economist 28 Aug 04 "China: The Great Leap West" (38):-fine report on scale/impact of "Hanification" (Chinese race and rule)in vast, extreme-western Chinese Xinjiang province, historic area of Uighurs: Muslin Turkic people. Kashgar, Uighurs' key/most western city, forcefully resembling Shanghai/Shenzhen in Han population, structure, even economy, since area now offers new railway, oil pipeline, and large state subsidies. Worse," since 11 Sep 01, Beijing...link[ed]Uighur nationalist groups to al-Qaeda, even announcing...1,000 Uighur trained with Osama bin Laden. [F]ew Uighurs did indeed fightfor Taliban...but most support non-violence[;]little evidence of significant al-Qaeda links.[While]Chinaonce tarred all Uighurs as terrorists.,.now defines terrorist in Xinjiang as anyone who thinks' separatist thoughts' ...and recently detained tens of thousands.,.executed many[AI report. R]ecently said crackdownwould continue indefinitely. [S]mall-scale clashes break out nearly every day.;.instability scares off foreign investors[e.g.pipeline. M]oderate Uighurs, who want autonomy but not necessarily independence, worrythat repression and Chinese immigration are playing into hands of most hardline, conservative elementsin Uighur society. Though Uighurs historically were among world's most liberal/pro-western Muslims,fundamentalist Islam gaining sway among young Uighur men. Still, there is hope. Recognizing threatposed by hardliners, leading moderate... diaspora[united]behiind one leader, Erkin Alptekin.[S]on of pre-1949 president of independent Xinjiang, can become their Dalai Lama, promoting Uighur case in West and serving as moderate, unifying force for nation." Economist 06 Nov 04 "China: Mayhem, Martial Law and Mobiles" (45):-hostility/clash between Chinese of Han majority and Muslim minority may reflect government's above-noted terrorist propaganda against Uighurs or much more varied threat of mayhem. "In Henan province.,.traffic accident[generated majority-minority clash]. Officials confirmed 7 deaths/42 injuries in four days fighting before paramilitary police imposed martial law.[Reports claim]thousands of Hui travelled to scene of riot...to take part in clashes, and that death toll may have been far higher.[F]or China...ethnic discord between Han and Hui is not directly related to deepening hostilitybetween Muslims and non-Muslims in rest of world[,but]that could be changing...Han have been more suspicious and disdainful of China's own Muslims, who in response have turned more defensive.[Also, recent]reports about other incidents of unrest across China. In Sichuan...100,000 farmers took part in violent protests against meagre compensation received after being forced to make way for new dam. In... largest city, quarrel among locals turned violent, with reports of police cars burned and government buildings looted. In[other]provinces labour disputes also turn violent. While those episodes were not connected, Chinese authorities terrified at prospect that future incidents might be. Tension, after all, is rife in China. Unpaid wages are common flashpoint for urban workers, as are arbitrary land grabs by authorities in countryside. Economic hardship and unchecked corruption are facts of life throughout China, and ethnic strife never far below surface wherever minorities live.[F]ear of seeing isolated incidentsturn into prairie fire, guides China's handling of unrest. In Henan, outsiders were barred from region,phone lines swiftly cut, and local media...scrubbed.[Yet]modern communications - mobile phones, text messaging, e-mail - make it easy for malcontents anywhere in China to spread news and link up with others."

 

The Economist 11 Sep 04 "Kosovo's March Riots: The Audit of War" (47):-full information on bloody and humiliating event in Kosovo in Mar 04 now available, and gives evidence international forces almost totally failed in their responsibilities. "Rampaging of thousands of ethnic Albanians through Kosovo...was worst violence since NATO took charge of province in 99(and included)18,000 NATO peacekeepers, plus 3,500 UN policemen to be able to stop it. Yet three days of ethnic cleansing ensued,...leaving 19 Serbs and ethnic Albanians dead, 900 wounded, 4,000 non-Albanians displaced and hundreds of Serb churches and homes torched. Peacekeepers and policemen had five years' experience of ethnic-Albanian and Serbviolence...and were equipped with everything from helicopter gunships to riot-sticks. Faced mobs armed with stones, grenades, petrol bombs and Kalashnikovs. Even so, many peacekeepers...proved woefullyincompetent...International pressure-group concluded...NATO's mission, known as K-FOR, failed to protectethnic minorities, too often turning blind eye to Serb homes being attacked and UN police officers calling for help...Report by UN...on performance of its Kosovo mission...says many feared UNMIK and K-FOR wouldcollapse if riots had gone on for another day or two; mission was already on point of overstaying its welcome. UNMIK people were seen as aloof strangers in society they governed. Since then, improvementsmade but problem remains...Story of international peacekeepers' successes and failures in Kosovo oftenstory of confronting or being manipulated by ethnic-Albanian extremists. Right now ethnic-Albanian hot-heads seem to have upper hand." Relevant to this violent relationship between ethnic groups in Kosovo are two specialized reports in Global Governance Vol.10/No.3(Jul-Sep 04):Leopold von Carlowitz "Crossing the Boundary from the International to the Domestic Legal Realm: UNMIK Lawmaking and Property Rights in Kosovo" ; Julie Mertus "Improving International Peacebuilding Efforts: The Example of Human Rights Culture in Kosovo" .Both allude to UNMIK facing difficult ethnic rivalries.

 

The Economist 11 Sep 04 "China: No Right to Work" (37-8):-the huge scale/growth of PRC's economy, andhesitant pre-democracy of its regime have made this nation's stability an issue of international interest. Hence widespread interest in global effects/healthiness of its rapid growth, potentially massive violence of its political pride, and widespread instability of its domestic corruptions/frustrations. This estimate of Chinese unemployment contributes. "China's official figures hugely understate growing problem.[PM]Wen declared unemployment to be top priority for administration. Most people agree urban unemployment growing, but statistical quagmire of government's making renders it difficult to assess how bad problem really is...Last year government put urban unemployment rate at 4.3%...But everyone knows figure little to do with reality.[B]loated state-owned enterprises...shed much excess labour. Many simplyclosed, [resulting] in job losses for staggering 24m workers, or about 10% of urban labour force. [M]ore biglayoffs imminent at some...state-owned commercial banks, which already shed some 250,000 staff.[S]ome2,500 state-owned mines and large enterprises with total staff of 5.1m due to be shut.[M]any Chineseanalysts put figure at around 8-10% in urban areas...Regional variations considerable. [North-east areas]plagued in recent years by frequent, albeit orderly, and mostly small, demonstrations by laid-offworkers/retired employees. Unemployment rates ...like mining towns, dependent on just few industries, probably as high as 40%. All this unsettling to[" still socialist" ] government struggling...legitimacy in eyes of cynical public, and which has ingrained aversion to unrest.[O]fficial figures cover only...registered urbanresidents. But in some big cities 20-30% population made up of migrant workers from countryside, most of whom not classified city-dwellers.[I]f cannot find work, they return to countryside...Another distortion high level of hidden employment.[A]s much as 60% of laid-off workers... in fact employed informally. [P]rivate-sector employment much higher than...reported.[C]hina ignores rural areas when calculating unemployment ...since villagers...land-use rights...Even so, 150m or so rural-dwellers have little or nothing to do and in coming years may move to urban areas. This...will add to urban employment pressures just as China facesbaby-boom surge in labour force and thanks to heavy investment in capital-intensive production,diminishing employment from growth. Economist 09 Oct 04 "China: Help Wanted" (39-40):-fascinating item conveys unexpected news of sudden/substantial shortage of even unskilled labour along booming Chinese coast - globally famous flood of unemployed migrants from poor countryside has expensively evaporated. Manager:" We're lucky these days to fill one of every two jobs available" .Officials report "municipality is short of around 270,000 workers; worrying phenomenon for area producing [20%]Guangdong exports...Pearl River delta...short of about 2m.[S]hortage of unskilled labour now particularly evident in belt of manufacturing cities along coast from Guangdong up[to]south of Shanghai.Number of labour disputes risen sharply, in part sign of tight labour market...Although...huge influx of labour from rural areas into cities in recent times(about 100m as of last year), barriers prevented many migrants from settling down[or using local]social security and health-care provisions...And there may now be greater temptation to stay on farms because of unusually rapid growth of rural incomes in recent months, caused by rising food prices. Incomes in first half of year rose by more than 16%...Demand for labour has been pushed up by huge influx of foreign investment($53.5b last year), as well as surge ofdomestic investment.[F]actory managers face choice of increasing wages...shifting to less labour-intensive production or moving to areas where cheap labour more abundant. [Vietnam?]Myth of China's infinitely cheap, and as some factory owners hoped, infinitely exploitable labour is beginning to crumble." Joseph Kahn "The Great Divide/Talking Back To Power: China's 'Haves' Stir the 'Have Nots' to Violence" New York Times 31 Dec 04:-substantial description of a serious riot in Wanzhou, a Yangtze River port city, offers the following more widespread information near the beginning: "Minor street quarrel provokes mass riot. Communist Party, obsessed with enforcing social stability, has few worse fears. Yet...nearly a dozen such incidents in past three months, many touched off by governmentcorruption/police abuse/inequality of riches accruing to powerful/well connected.'People can see how corrupt government is while they barely have enough to eat.'...Though it is experiencing one of most spectacular economic expansions in history, China having more trouble maintaining social order thanat any time since Tiananmen Square democracy movement in 89. Police statistics show number of publicprotests reached nearly 60,000 in 03, increase of nearly 15% from 02 and eight times number a decade ago. Martial law and paramilitary troops are commonly needed to restore order when police lose control...Protests may be so numerous in part because they are small, local expressions of discontent over layoffs, land seizures, use of natural resources, ethnic tensions, misspent state funds, forced immigration, unpaid wages or police killings. Yet several mass protests...show how people with different causes can seize an opportunity to press their grievances together. Police recently arrested several advocates of peasant rights suspected of helping to coordinate protest activities nationally. Those areworrying sign for one-party state, reflexively wary of even hint of organized."

 

The Economist 25 Sep 04 "Russia and the West: The End of the Affair?" (66):-while reports varied views on key motives/effects, article concludes: "Russia's relations with West are deteriorating." Recent event that raised concern about exchanges was terrorist occupation of children/teachers/parents-filled school in Beslannear Chechnya; it ended in terrible civilian massacre. Informing nation, "President Vladimir Putin conjured up spectre of manipulative foreign powers exploiting terrorism to weaken Russia...Russians used tomoans from soft Europeans; from US they expect harder-headed pragmatism...Russian liberals see thiscontre-temps as foreign-policy turning-point.[Putin,] insatiable centraliser at home...is emerging as incorrigible great-power nationalist abroad.[He]still sees Russia's interests in terms of spheres of influence. Worse,'Russian'values that Putin espouses in...human rights/strong government, make closerintegration with West impossible...Russia seemed pursuing'normal'foreign policy, but in reality it was detente in another guise. In future,..mutual suspicion will co-exist with Russia's westward energy sales...If Putin wants to fall out further with West, he has chances aplenty coming up[e.g. leadership of Ukraine,Belarus, Georgia]." Kremlin sympathisers, however, argue that critical statements toward each other byBush and Putin actually motivated by their own domestic political concerns. "Underneath...two presidents still understand each other and get along fine. Truth probably lies somewhere in between. Russia's relations with West not as bad as they sometimes were in volatile Yeltsin years. Putin picks his fight carefully: witness his relative equanimity over NATO's eastward expansion. He may refrain from provocations in Georgia. But he is certainly no internationalist. All parties feel short-changed by theirexperience of past few years: Europeans over Russia's human-rights and democratic failings; US overIraq; Putin over meddling and misunderstandings on terrorism. New period of great-power rivalry may be far off; but Russia's closer integration with West is probably even more remote."

 

The Economist 02 Oct 04 "Crime and Policing in Latin America: The Battle For Safer Streets" (35-6):-survey of entire area describes: virtually all nations in vast/economically-varied zone face serious and violent criminal problems (with proud exception of Chile)widely permitted/supported by inefficient and/or corrupt police staff. Also adds description of many and wise police/law reform programs, also in variety of nations. "Across region, opinion polls show crime second only to economic worries as public concern" and in 04 public demonstrated/focused elections against crime(Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico)where "feeling of helplessness in face of woeful criminal-justice system. Statistics patchy/unreliable[,b]ut in many countries violent crime rife. Some particularly nasty crimesincreasing" :kidnapping/murder/theft." Some causes...socio-economic conditions: poverty/inequality;swift/chaotic urbanization; joblessness especially among[many]young males. Drug trade created powerful criminal syndicates across region. But above all, crime common because criminals rarely caught/punished.[M]any Latin Americans do not bother to report crimes[,and]see police as part of problem, not solution...With reason: police too often abusive/corrupt/incompetent,even criminal...Someof what is wrong...stems from history. Under dictatorships, police were often militarised - and were poor relation of armed forces. Two things flowed from this - and still do" : reaction to crime rather than prevention of it; wages/discipline/structures poor." Across region, reform efforts of varying scope under way. One response is to throw money at problem...In contrast, many reformers stress better management, cracking down on corruption and...merging or linking up different forces. Also want...closer relations betweenpolice and public, and better police training/working conditions...Task for politicians is to respond to public anger while not allowing it to derail long-term reforms of police so urgently needed."

 

The Economist 09 Oct 04 "India: Cohabiting, For Now" (37-8):-first of 3 items in issue, all making even more complex the previous serious key/positive reporting on India's new Congress government, found viaEconomist 12 Jun 04 "India's Economic Reform" .These items analyse whether Congress' leader, Mrs Sonia Gandhi, and its PM, Manmohan Singh, are so far able to:(1)achieve crucial reform plans;(2)maintain domestic order against rebellions;(3)deal with US over nuclear issues. India seems on edge of becoming global force like China.(1)Apparent Congress popularity just been confirmed by winning big election in Maharashtra over BJP, previous national government party. Yet Gandhi and Singh operation beset by doubts:" about how[they]would share power/manage disparate coalition; and about whether policymakingwould be crippled by need to retain support, from outside formal coalition of two Communist parties on which it relies for parliamentary majority." Communists raised some difficulties because of "objections to economic reforms with which Singh/team identified." If heeded, policy may be paralysed. "Contentious issues ...include privatising airports, raising cap on foreign investment in insurance/telecommunicationsindustries,..cutting subsided interest rates paid to pensioners through provident fund[,and]to abolish big irritant to potential foreign investors." Big storm arose in Planning Commission when it was sought to appoint World Bank advisors etc. but now free to talk to anyone. No problem over nation-wide value-added tax; Communists anyway do not want to bring them down. Factional feuding low-key.(2) "India's North-East: The Terror Spreads" (38):-Congress government faces criticism for handling of worseningterrorist problem in country's north-east. Over 70 were killed 2-5 Oct alone in series of explosions and gunattacks. Blamed on two secessionist outfits in seven region states(over 200 ethnic groups).One wantsindependence for Assam; other wants separate homeland for Bodo. Bhutan army overran camps used by refugees but Bangladesh/Myanmar seen to harbour terrorists. Nagaland sees violence in spite of ceasefire by independence group. Many separatist groups in Manipur accuse Indian forces of human-rights abuses. "Region's conflicts are too many, too complex and too overlapping to be settled by foreign military action alone. But...panicked[Indian]government is rushing fresh troops." "Nuclear Proliferation: A Game For All To Play" (38-9):- US just fingered two senior Indian scientists for(like Pakistan)secretly cooperating with Iran over nuclear power industry and illicit weapons programs. "Both men flatly deny wrongdoing[and claim to have]helped Iran with safety advice.[India]demanded...two men's names be dropped from sanctions list.[US]may relate to process Indian nuclear scientists invented to extract tritium(used to boost explosive power of nuclear bombs)from heavy water used in some..power reactors.[US]has long been keen to work with India on nuclear projects, showing interest in India's plans for nuclear-powered submarine. Indian firms ticked off by US for other sorts of weapons cooperation with Iran. But India has generally been careful to avoid sensitive nuclear areas. In recent years, it has not wanted to upset improving ties with US. However, India's new Congress-led government already proving pricklier. Row over nuclear scientists could yet help sour what both hoped could be emerging strategic partnership." Economist 30 Oct 04 "India and Pakistan: Commando Diplomacy" (48):-meanwhile, new situation may have developed regarding extremely difficult Kashmir problem. Pakistan's General PervezMusharraf proposed an unprecedented compromise for peace negotiations with India." He noted thatKashmir has seven regions, two in Pakistan and five in India. He argued that some or all of these regions should be demilitarised and their status changed. Result could be independence, 'condominium'between India and Pakistan, or a UN mandate." While India "has long been prepared to settle for line of control as international boundary,..some form of'enhanced autonomy'and a solution seems at least possible."

 

The Economist 16 Oct 04 "Sri Lanka's Peace Process: As Good As It Gets?" (39-40):-Sri Lanka, huge and charming island state south of India, has population of about 20m, of which roughly 75% essentiallyBuddhist Sinhalese and roughly 20% essentially Hindu-oriented Tamils. Force from latter has been waging 20-year war for independent Tamil homeland. "For year and a half, Sri Lanka's peace process has beenlocked in ugly stalemate. In April 2003, Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, who had been waging...forindependence to north and east of island, withdrew from talks with government. Since then, ceasefireagreed on year earlier has held, despite violations. Norwegian diplomats, who helped arrange it, haveexpressed fears antagonists' 'incredible complacency'masks' melting at the edges' of frozen war. Butneither side seems to want to plunge into renewed conflict...Formal disagreement with government that is stopping talks concerns their scope...Tigers fear government will block interim authority, thwarting hopesthat Tiger-controlled areas might start enjoying...assistance promised to Sri Lanka in return for peace.Government fears interim authority will pre-empt final outcome, and turn into new platform for Tiger bid forfull statehood. These differences...do not seem unbridgeable. True obstacles to talks lie in two sides' internal troubles" .Splits within sides fully explained. There is "enough on their plates without eithernegotiating peace or taking up arms again...Economic complacency may be even less justified than the political variety."

 

The Economist 16 Oct 04 "Kosovo: Status Quo?" (48):- "Albanians' status" dilemma is a serious problem for all parts of south-west Balkans. This is because the political wishes/future of significant Albanian communities living in "foreign" areas bordering Albania are inter-related national dilemmas, threatening high birthrates and renewed violence. A substantial Albanian population "abroad" is found in five other Balkan nations: relatively "pure" Serbia proper; Serbia's Albanian-dominated Kosovo province; Macedonia;Montenegro; and Greece. The first three are issues. For various historic factors and multiple options, read: "Albanians in the Balkans" , 9-page Special Report 77 of United States Institute of Peace, 01 Nov 01,www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr77.html. "Kosovo..." offers extremely complex situation surrounding trans-Kosovo Oct election in UN protectorate. "[P]oll matters because talks are likely to begin next year on its final status. More than 90% of population is ethnic Albanian. Overwhelmingly, they want nothing less thanfull independence." After serious attacks by Albanian extremists(reported in Economist 11 Sep 04 op.cit.) leading Serbs urged boycott of poll, and also pushed for concentration of Serb areas in north Kosovoincluding 220,000 Kosovo Serbs now in Serbia. Another Serb proposal: have Kosovo partitioned, with mostly Serb-inhabited north joining Serbia. But research claims only 65,000 refugees in Serbia, many of whom would not come anyway, and that two-thirds of 128,000 still in Kosovo live rurally in south; harderto make into either enclaves or partition. Albanian total in Kosovo also needs determination [1.5m? 2.2m?]. "Without reliable data, hard to make plans for health and education, let alone for elections or forindependent state." Economist 30 Oct 04 "Serbia and Kosovo: Pyrrhic Victory" (57-8):-Albanian-Serbian relations now moving? "[Kosovo] remains in a sort of legal no-man's-land. In diplomatic theory,sovereignty over Kosovo is vested in'Serbia and Montenegro', union of the only two republics of former Yugoslavia...still yoked together[and quite liable to separate]. In practice, province run by UN, which has been transferring power to local institutions - in other words, to territory's ethnic-Albanian majority. For Albanians, [23 Oct 04 Kosovo]poll changed little: all ethnic-Albanian parties solidly in favour ofindependence, and all those representing Kosovo's minority Serbs solidly against.[PM of Serbia,]Kostunica feels Serbs should not lend legitimacy to province's' multinational'governance, because that was torn to shreds by...anti-minority violence which chased 4,000 Serbs and Roma from their homes[see 11 Sep Economist op.cit. A]ll but 1% of Kosovo's Serbs ...eschewed[Oct]ballot...Kostunica...probably wants to forestall talks on Kosovo's final status, because, despite this electoral fillip, he really has no credible proposal for political future of territory. At moment he is pushing for plan which foresees autonomy forSerbian areas within Kosovo, which would, for now at least, remain under international tutelage. But plan unworkable[see earlier]... Meanwhile, Kosovo Serbs have no legitimate representatives to speak on their behalf; their future more precarious than ever. With no serious Serbian interlocutors ready to engage in talks, some Albanians may say it is time to dig up their guns; and now they may target not only Serbs, but Western troops or international bureaucrats." [No mention of moving Kosovo's border with Serbia both upand down, where they live.] Economist 02 Apr 05"Kosovo's Future: After Haradinaj"(46):-brings situation forward somewhat by noting there will be"Tense moments before final-status talks can begin". Initial point is that the relatively competant former Kosovo PM, Ramush Haradinaj, is "now in custody in The Hague [since] he faces charges before the Yugoslav war-crimes tribunal" as rebel commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army(KLA). "Kosovo's (still provisional) government is assuming ever-increasing responsibility as UN-led administration devolves power in the run-up to talks due to start later this year on province's final status".Before such talks, UN requires Kosovo "show progress towards a number of internationally imposed standards, in such areas as good democratic governance and respect for minorities". UN may "permit final talks on Kosovo's status to begin this autumn".But Albanian-Serbian relations still threaten;Economist 04 Jun 05"Kosovo's Final Status: Independence Dreams"(51-2):-"UNSC has given the go-ahead for talks that could culminate in independence for Kosovo. Six years after the end of the Kosovo war, it signalled on 27 May a new determination by the western powers to open talks on the final statusof the disputed province. The fear is that, if Kosovo is not seen to be moving towards independence soon, the UN mission and NATO troops in Kosovo might be faced with an ethnic Albanian equivalent of Palestine's intifada"; Economist 08 Oct 05"Kosovo's Status: The Wheels Grind On"(60-1):-"A 'frank'report clears way for negotiations on Kosovo's future... On 04 Oct, a long-awaited report on status of Kosovo was handed to Kofi Annan, UNSG. By Dec, UN-sponsored talks are expected to start on future of territory still bitterly contested between ethnic Serbs and Albanians. With most observers expecting talks to lead to Kosovo's independence, there is, or at least there should be, a sense of history being made; in the words of province's UN boss, a 'moment of truth'is looming... Report...will excoriate Albanian leaders for failing to protect Serbs and other minorities, and Serb politicians for refusing to act constructively in Kosovo's politics. It is also expected to recommend that talks on Kosovo's future begin ASAP".

 

The Economist 16 Oct 04 "Macedonia: On the Edge" (48):-" with its stagnant economy and high inflation, Macedonia sometimes feels like bits left over after other Yugoslavs went their own way. It has barely 2m citizens, 62% of them Macedonians and 25% ethnic Albanians[ -who]don't much like each other.[Yet]part of...deal to end conflict between [Albanian]guerrillas and Macedonian state was promise to decentralisecountry and cut vast number of municipalities ...Problem, say[nationalist]critics, is that deal on new boundaries was gerrymandered one, done behind closed doors between the two main ruling parties, Macedonian and[ethnic-Albanian.T]his created perception that[ethnic]leaders are bargaining over fates of towns and peoples' like feudal lords' .Anger at Albanian[alleged advantage]triggered successful demands for[hot]referendum on a planned deal. Macedonia may not go back to war after the[vote],but if the country plunges into a political turmoil, it will set back hopes of becoming more prosperous[- and accepted into EUand NATO]." Economist 13 Nov 04 "Macedonia's Referendum: A Narrow Squeak" (57):- "nobody will ever know how narrow an escape from war one of Europe's most volatile states has just had.[P]eace between the Slav Macedonian majority and the ethnic-Albanian minority is on track again[and]politicians from all sides assembled...to recommit themselves to reconciliation process." Political referendum on municipalities plan did take place, but was voted on by only 26% of electorate; "not enough for quorum. So constitutional changes to devolve power to local authorities and to cut their number from 123 to 83,will go ahead." US had just catered to frustrated nationalists by announcing it would recognize the countryas "Republic of Macedonia" i.e. overcoming embarrassing Greek demand that this longtime title be refused by all, including UN, since ancient Macedonian area also included bits of Greece. Indeed, Greeks no longer fear invasion from north, and are in fact biggest investors in Macedonia. Is US now focusing on Balkans?

 

The Economist 23 Oct 04 "Malaysia: Forging A Nation" (44):-many, if not most, nations have populations that include one or more cultural minorities. Malaysia is relatively famous in this respect: its 24m people include 58% that are Malays, 24% Chinese, and 8% Indians. These groups benefit from the nation'srelatively rich economy, generating $9,000 annually per capita, and "rub along quite well. There has beenlittle outright violence since traumatic burst of rioting in 1969." Recently optimum handling of minority groups has become a major UNDP concern. Its full advice to governments is in: Human Development Report 2004: Cultural Liberty in Today's Diverse World(op.cit.). Whether in light of UNDP orders or not,Malaysia has just begun its National Service programme "a sort of state-run, civic-minded summer campdesigned to force Malaysian teenagers of all races to mix. But when formal discussion ends, and participants drift off to lunch, integration also stops. Malays, Chinese and Indians all split up into separate groups, to follow their different languages and mingle with their own kind. This sort of voluntary segregation is precisely what the National Service programme is designed to combat." Which attitude does UNDP approve? Article: "Main thing Malaysians of different races have in common...is hostility to government's attempts at integration."

 

The Economist 06 Nov 04 "Romania and the European Union: Brussels Beckons" (53-4); "Romania's Judicial System: Judge and Jury" (54):-discussion of EU prospects for Romania and Bulgaria. Both expected to join in 07, but "Bulgaria's entry more assured" with hope EU "fix date for signing accession treaty early 05[although must improve judicial system].Romania's progress...wobblier. Negotiations, mainly about identifying areas candidate can readily implement EU's rule book[,still unfinished. Though]complicated by parliamentary/presidential elections 28 Nov,...change of government might be healthy. Ruling Social Democrats(PDSR)are post-communists[who recently]modernized style and ideas...but party machine fueled by clientelism and corruption. Main opposition, Justice and Truth,...more liberal, wants to cut taxesfurther/faster,[and]defending gay rights and...legalised prostitution...Most decisions dictated largely bycommitments ...already made to EU, NATO...and IMF...Recent polls show PDSR narrowly ahead of Justice and Truth...but 1/3 voters still to make up their minds...This election first in which direction of country notfundamentally in question.: ..democracy is working.[P]resent government accepts political/economic reforms needed for good of country.[S]till long way to go.:..lowest income per person in central Europe,worst environmental standards, biggest tax arrears, most pervasive corruption, highest infant mortality,lowest education spending. Judicial...mess.:..ramshackle legal system biggest threat to hopes of joining EU...Courts short of judges, judges short of training. Some laws out of date, others new and untested.Lack of judicial independence made worse by political system riddled with cronyism and corruption...Just bolstered judicial independence...Specialised commercial courts being set up; family courts will follow.'National centre for integrity'[to try against corruption. Overall requirement: national legal]system must command trust/respect of other EU governments. [H]ere...Romania still has far to go.[M]edia freedomquestionable and labour market...dysfunctional...Now[EU]is going to let country in largely on trust, knowing reforms promised today will be implemented only in years, even decades."

 

The Economist 13 Nov 04 "Climate Change: A Canary in the Coal Mine" (87-8):-team of 300 scientists fromall eight states with land inside Arctic Circle spent past four years investigating Arctic Climate Impact Assessment(ACIA) and have issued report "Impacts of a Warming Arctic" ,summary of their principal scientific findings. In few weeks, second report will offer recommended policies - e.g. support for UN Kyoto Protocol etc. controls of greenhouse-gas emissions. Third report will detail all scientific findings. Several factors lead to greater temperature swings at poles than elsewhere on planet:(1)Albedo- how much sunlight absorbed on planet surface/how much reflected. Snow/ice in polar regions much more reflectivethan soil/oceans elsewhere. If snow melts, exposed earth absorbs heat and accelerates warming.(2)Nearer to poles, atmosphere is thinner than at equator, so less energy required to heat it. (3)Nearer to poles, less solar energy is also lost in evaporation. UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)predicted 2001: rise in sea level of 10-90cm and temperature rise of 1.4-5.8C over century. ACIA: "Arctic now experiencing some of most rapid and severe climate change on Earth" : recently average Arctictemperature increased almost twice as fast as did global; widespread melting of glaciers/sea ice;shortening of snow season; evidence Greenland ice sheet melting faster than previously thought. One reason world should pay attention to ACIA report(like a canary in a coal mine): "Hyper-sensitive polar regions may well experience full force of global warming before rest of planet. However...second/bigger reason to pay attention: an unexpected rapid warming of Arctic could also lead directly to greater climate change elsewhere on planet." Arctic warming may influence global climate several ways:(1)Huge amounts of methane(bad greenhouse gas)stored in tundra's permafrost. While thaw allows forests(absorbingcarbon dioxide - serious greenhouse gas)to invade tundra, melting of permafrost may more than offset cooling effects of new forests. (2)Sea-water's salinity is decreasing in north Atlantic due to increased glacial meltwaters. At big risk is mid-Atlantic Conveyor Belt current, which brings warm water from tropicsto north-west Europe, and creates their mild winters. Reduced density/salinity in waters near Arctic couldadversely effect this current.(3)Biggest popular worry: melting ice could lead to dramatic sea level risebut much ice in Arctic is already floating so its melting makes no immediate difference to sea level; land ice melts more slowly. Greatest effect will be expansion of sea water by its increased temperature. Also,Greenland melting faster than previously thought and, if all melts, sea might rise by 6-7 metres. "Possible that current period of warming could tip delicate Arctic climate system out of balance, and so drag rest of planet with it." (For economic/legal impact: Rob Huebert op.cit.)

 

The Economist 13 Nov 04 "China and Central Asia: Fear of the Dragon" (46-7):-Chinese growth west - with political, economic, populace impact. China's relations with Central Asian governments mutually fine. Keyoil pipeline begun; eventually could link Caspian west Kazakhstan to thirsty Chinese coast, viaXinjiang(Econ.28 Aug).Kirgizstan and Tajikistan also keen on expanding ties. Yet all publics suspicious of revived Chinese expansionism. "Fears strengthened by growing number of Chinese in Central Asia. Officially, Kazakhstan has only 1,200-5,000 and Kirgizstan not many more than 5,000. Unofficially, estimates run to 300,000 Chinese in Kazakhstan alone, most of them traders. Even[unbordered]Uzbekistan...admits to worrying about illegal immigrants...[W]hole of ex-Soviet Central Asia has only 60m." China claimed 1.5m square kilometres USSR territory, much in Central Asia, and military clash took place; but border agreements now negotiated, despite local worry persisting andrelocation of Kazakh capital further from border. "Both Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan now nervously watching flood of ethnic Chinese moving to Xinjiang, and economic boom in that part of China. New raillinks and good roads seen by some Central Asians as potential springboard for China's expansion even further west, into Kazakhstan's vast and largely empty territory maybe 20-30 years from now. All paranoid nonsense, of course." [States besides China recall old borders.]

 

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "Aid Agencies: More Dangerous Than Ever" (48-9):-aid work is one of the most dangerous professions in the world." In past decade, more than 200 UN civilian staff...killed by'malicious acts' in 45 countries. Nearly 300 more civilians/peacekeepers taken hostage. International Committee of Red Cross(IDRC)lost 40 staff on mission over same period. Hundreds of other unarmed aid workers...killed/maimed/abducted/assaulted as tried to help people in some of world's most benighted places.[N]ew is deliberate way they are now targeted, particularly in Iraq/Afghanistan. Three UN aidworkers in [latter still under decapitation threat].Suicide attack on ICRCHQ Baghdad killed ten.[S]uicidebomb in UNHQ Baghdad killed 22...Five Medecins Sans Frontieres murdered in cold blood in Afghanistan.And so...on. Most big relief agencies...have now left Iraq. ICRC remains...without cover of red cross. UN, supposed to oversee Iraq election.,.still operating in Baghdad but with expatriate staff of just 35[300+until attack. UN flag/ICRC cross offered protection until 1990s.]Instead of accidentally killed because...in wrong place/wrong time, clearly identified aid workers began to be murdered - in Balkans/Sierra Leone/Africa Great Lakes region/ Chechnya/Colombia.[Deaths more local factors]than personal affiliation.[But i]n Afghanistan/Iraq UN/aid agencies ...deliberately hunted down. Mostly based in rich countries.,.come to beregarded by many...as part of a western plot to subjugate Muslim world-though more than half[UN/ICRC]beneficiaries Muslims. Blurring...between humanitarian/ military roles, with coalition forcesin Afghanistan/Iraq perceived handing out...food one day/dropping bombs next, has not helped." Aid people see their neutral operating space much limited, as now seen as semi-official distributors of west-government relief; not as impartial agencies meeting local need. UNSG asked for top-priority new anti-risk safety measures. "But will they prove any more effective against targeted terrorist attacks than blue flag?"

 

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "Afghanistan: After the Taliban" (46):-UN counter-narcotics agency(UNODC) reports huge rise in Afghan opium production for third year: export value $2.8b - equal to 60% of 03 GDP, and providing 95+% of heroin reaching Europe. "This year, 131,000 hectares sown with opium seed- 64% increase;...yet harvest, 4,200 tonnes of opium resin, up only 17%" ,due to bad weather/crop disease,rather than effort to destroy/dissuade. "Spending around $150m/year, Britain has formed array ofcounter-narcotics departments and law enforcement agencies, which began functioning only this year.Money also spent on persuading poppy farmers to grow alternative crops, like fruit trees or saffron.UN...advocated floriculture - hoping...bed of roses. But, in absence of almost any law enforcement[orroads to markets]such schemes hopeless...In fact opium cultivation has no financial equivalent. Last year,each hectare under cultivation yielded 45 kilos of opium, which earned farmers $283/kilo. This year, price was $92." Then argues that only US has capacity to enforce law and is only just starting to undertakeaction/funds against opium. "Persuaded Taliban using opium cash to buy arms, US waded in...Government ordered provincial governors to destroy 25% of poppy crop...Few did so...Helmand is ideal drug country. US also[financed/trained] Afghan eradication team[which]caused chaos. Farmers firedrockets...and sowed poppy fields with land mines. Yet it destroyed 1,000 hectares...and should be expanded next year...US announced $780m for drug control efforts. Britain trained top-level interdictionforce[which]destroyed over 51 tonnes of opium and 32 heroin-producing labs. Also arrested 20 mid-leveltraffickers, but...none has been convicted. Drugs squad within Afghan police force faces greater obstacles...Drug traders will surely thrive if no-one ever punished...UN plans to train judges and advocatesspecially to try traffickers.[D]istant glimmer of hope...although opium making return[in Pakistan]too." Nat Ives "Karzai Plans to Destroy Poppy Fields in 2 Years" New York Times 13 Dec 04:-reports Afghanistan's newly-confirmed president firmly undertakes to destroy country's flourishing drug production, a critical(if very difficult)aim as UN Office on Drugs and Crime officially claims nation has become source for 87% of world's opium. US military review expresses concern Afghanistan's poppy cultivation/opium production will increase and expand influence of drug magnates at all levels of government. It also claimed that, "by strengthening their ties to drug traffickers, Taliban fighters/other militants will be able to use intimidation and play on ethnic/tribal allegiances to try to undermine government. [Hence, at] narcotics conference in Kabul, Karzai called on countrymen to declare holy war against fast-growing opium trade." Carlotta Gall "Armed and Elusive, Afghan Drug Dealers Roam Free" NYT 02 Jan 05:-much detail on drug shipping across Margo desert, sprawling "across far southwestern corner of Afghanistan towards borders with Iran and Pakistan.[It] is favored route of drug traffickers taking opium, heroin and hashish produced in Afghanistan to Iran for smuggling to Turkey and Europe. They cross in armed convoys of 10-20 pickup trucks, at such high speed that police officials say they cannot catch them...Scale of problem and deadly seriousness of smugglers have been confirmed by Iranian authorities and UN. Iran has lost more than3,000 police officers battling drug smugglers in 10 years...In effort to improve Afghan border control, Iran building/equipping 25 border checkpoints for Afghan authorities along their common border, and hasdonated 100 motorbikes to Afghan police."

 

The Economist 20 Nov 04 "The United Nations: Time For A Re-Think" (Edit.15-6) "United Nations: Fighting For Survival" (25-7):-this historically important Special Report provides a careful, yet positive, summary of a realistic but strongly positive set of recommendations, agreed on by a panel appointed by Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General. The 16-member group, composed of top-level but independent worthies from all regions of globe, was instructed to submit UN-reform proposals related to Organization's effective coordination of collective security in face of unprecedented global threats. Editorial supports reforms carefully but as essential. UN" embodies collective will and wisdom of imperfect world...Report on how UN might in future better contribute to international security - mobilizing its own and world's resources, to prevent crises where possible and to deal with them more resolutely and effectively where necessary - is due...Yet the thoughtful debate such proposals deserve risks getting lost in poisonous war of words.[Those]who brush against UN as irrelevant in today's world are...dangerously short-sighted.World's most powerful country/top gun has its problems. With global interests and global reach, US is most often called on to right world's wrongs. It should have keen interest in rules-based system whichkeeps that burden to minimum and finds way for others, including UN, to share it...Agreed rules for all to play as much as possible makes strategic sense too.[Yet]system of international rules/treaties/laws is stilla hodge-podge. Some, like UN Charter, deemed universal, though...sometimes ignored.[P]rohibitions against proliferation of...weapons accepted by many but not all. Some disputes can be settled in court...but only where governments give nod...UN Security Council is where most serious disputes end.There trouble can start. UNSC not moral conscience of world. It is connection of states pursuing divergentinterests, albeit...with sense of responsibility. Where it can agree, consensus lends legitimacy toaction...Getting UNSC to mean what it says would help restore some lost credibility. Getting it to evolve collective thinking about international legal niceties in tune with evolving threats...is vital too. It has latelylearned to lean harder on genocidal dictators...Now it needs to contemplate earlier and sometimes evenforceful action by itself or others against threats...where delay[,including if too many members,]couldinvite catastrophe ...All the more reason why Annan's eminences deserve proper hearing." Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via the CFR directly. This is an expert interview with Lee Feinsteinwho" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied the important UN report and its UNGA prospects. Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus preliminary comments by its requester/addressee,UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from the Secretary General's part of the UN file(www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)is also available at the same address.

 

The Economist 18 Dec 04 "China: A Brother For Her" (51-2):-concludes that a changed policy allowing two children to any couple would: raise fertility; exceed desired 1.6b maximum population; change ratio of "young workers" / "old people" giving time to create social-security system; remove one of fewCommunist Party relics.[I regret generally good item does not mention other "impacts" when allowing population to exceed currently imminent maximum:e.g. longer lifespans/partial-work; lifetime/massive(re-)education/intellectual labor; globally/fatally tough food/energy imports/product exports; massive labourer replacement by accelerating productivity.] "[C]alls growing for change of policy.[N]ow...costs of coping with rapidly ageing population will outweigh benefits of maintaining draconian... controls...Variousexceptions to one-child-per-couple rule long permitted. Country couple allowed second child if first is girl. Ethnic minorities allowed two or more children. Urban[parents, if they are]only children, allowed two+.Policy undoubtedly helped reduce fertility rate...from 2.29 children/woman in 80 to 1.69 this year[2.1=even].China's population, at 1.3b, should begin to shrink by 2050. Impact of policy...is evident in urban areas...Compliance in countryside more difficult gauge[;while]sometimes...forcedabortions/destruction property,..village officials often turn blind eye...Rural fertility rates believed to behigher than...statistics show...China says...control measures resulted in some 300m fewer births in last 30 years.[P]roportion...aged 65 and over will begin swelling rapidly, while growth of working age population will shrink. China's rate of ageing faster than any other country...If current trends continue, ratio ofworking age to retirees will fall from six to two in 2040[and]impose colossal financial burdens in countryalready struggling to meet pension commitments to elderly...Sex ratio also becoming increasingly skewed. Cultural bias in favour of males produced official recorded ratio at birth of 118 boys to 100 girls[normal 105-100].Some female births...not recorded to avoid reprisals[but]large part of distortion caused by selective abortions...Infanticide far rarer, but neglect/maltreatment of female babies results in considerablyhigher...rate than among boys.[E]ven without[policy]fertility rate in big cities only around 1.5[1.0 Beijing/Shanghai].Health care/education/housing to most city dwellers now costly.[E]ven in...rural countieswhere allow...two children unconditionally...little inclination exceed. [F]amilies feel increasinglyinsecure...about possibility of their only child dying or incapacitating.[D]enials by officials any change imminent[but]studies of its impact said underway...Economic change already undermining government'sefforts to enforce policy. Rich...increasingly willing to pay fines; some try to have second child abroad."

 

The Economist 12 Feb 05"The Drug 'War'in Latin America: Next Steps in Colombia"(Edit.11);"Battles Won, a War Still Lost"(35-6):-issue reports on two basically different ways of defending human beings/ societies against dangerous potential of drugs. Editorial: "[I]n 2000[US] launched ambitious program of mainly military aid called Plan Colombia...Bush proposes to keep aid to Colombia largely unchanged in 2005-06, at some $742m. Before this becomes a permanent commitment, US and Colombians should look carefully at its value... [A]s always in war on drugs, victories are illusory. Cocaine is as cheap as ever.Drug prohibition in rich countries continues to fail - at huge cost for Latin American democracies, whose battle to enforce rule of law is contested by powerful drug mobs. In five years, Plan Colombia has offered no evidence to weaken The Economist's conviction that cocaine should be legalised (though its use, like that of tobacco, should be discouraged)"."In 2004, contractors working for US sprayed herbicide on 136,000 [Colombian]hectares of coca, similar amount to previous year. In 2004, almost 150 tonnes of cocaine seized in country, third more than 2003, while 1,900 cocaine labs were destroyed...166 Colombians [extradited] to face drug charges...in US...Yet to many..,Andean drug trade seems as effective/dangerous as ever. Most telling evidence is price of cocaine.[I]n US a gram of cocaine wholesaled for $38 in 2003, down from $48 in 2000...In Britain, cocaine is cheaper than ever.[C]onsumption is broadly flat in North America, according to UN, but rising in Europe.,.Brazil, Mexico and Central America. [One] explanation is that coca has spread to new areas, some undetected, and yields/productivity are rising."Drugs in Canada: Under the Needle"(36-7):-Canada is groping towards a distinctive approach to drugs, one that focuses on harm reduction rather than the repression favoured by US. North America's first trial of heroin maintenance -giving addicts free heroin on condition that accept treatment - [just]got under way[but]will[soon]expand. [Site]curbing disease and deaths among addicts...All will get help with health/housing/job training...More broadly, [Canada]will test whether heroin maintenance, used in Switzerland/Netherlands, will work in North America. Hope is that if hard-core addicts no longer have to commit crimes to fund habits,...more likely to become productive citizens/leave drugs behind...Researchers reckon heroin maintenance...cheaper."

 

The Economist 19 Mar 05"Reforming the Intelligence Services: The Spy Game"(Edit.13);"America's[US] Intelligence Reforms: Can Spies Be Made Better?"(29-31); "Britain's Intelligence Services: Cats' Eyes In the Dark"(32-4):-Editorial concludes:"In both Britain and US, the spies remain on watch. Current trends -terrorism and proliferation - have made their work both more important and much harder. Meanwhile, comforting idea that technology would make spying more of a high-tech science was blown apart by 11 Sep and Iraq fiasco; it is now a more risky, more human affair where real eyes and ears matter. So farspooks have been given much of what wanting: more money/more power/relatively gentle reorganisation.Now need to prove their worth." Item on US intelligence reforms:"Truth is, no one knows how the reforms will proceed. [John Negraponte, first director of national intelligence (DNI)] may gain a modicum of controlover the agencies. At best, he may ensure that the information channels opened within and between theagencies after the hijack attacks stay open. Yet, on his own at least, he will not be able to fix the agencies' most grievous problems, highlighted by their performance on Iraq... Further organizational reform would not eliminate problem. US spies do not necessarily need shifting; a good few need sacking." Item onBritish intelligence reform: "Can challenging and questioning be made part of the spy culture?... Britain'sintelligence services have been feeling their limitations lately. The [11 Sep 05 terrorist attacks and the invasion of Iraq] have forced a rethink in the way things are done - and have led to the most substantial reshaping of the intelligence community since 1946-48... Terrorist-related intelligence... now has to bepassed to Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre(JTAC). [Post-Iraq,] the new system is intended to givetechnical specialists more weight, to engender greater scepticism about the material gathered, and to licence every member of the British intelligence community, when necessary, to speak truth to power".


The Economist 26 Mar 05"The United Nations: Kofi Annan's Reform Plan"(Edit.12); "America[US] and the United Nations: Love At Second Sight"(31):-Editorial reports:"Some good ideas, but no revolution in therunning of the world"... "Some of Annan's reforms are designed expressly to address [chronic] failings. Possible remedies include adding new permanent members to UN Security Council [e.g.Germany, Japan, Brazil, India] to make it more representative, and making the rules on using force more flexible, so thatattack does not have to be under way or imminent before self-defence can be invoked; UNSC could alsorespond to'latent'threats...These ideas have been put together in good faith by experienced diplomats. They deserve a hearing. And yet they do not - indeed cannot - solve underlying problem... It is absence of [agreed] will, not some legal quibble, that is holding [UNSC]back now. None of this means Annan's ideas ought to be rejected, or that UN is not worth improving." Item on US views:"Bush's people seem to like: new intergovernmental peace-building commission;...replacement of Human Rights Commission by smaller, elected Human Rights Council; agreed definition of terrorism;... attempt to confirm a nation's right to launch'pre-emptive'strike in face of 'imminent'threat... Most contentious part of Annan's package...concerns UNSC [expanded] from 15 to 24. [Even former Republican critic wants]'"credible UN" because'US cannot be world's sole saviour. It needs to share its burden'".Economist 06 Aug 05"America's New UN Envoy: Lethal Injection, Or Healthy Tonic?"(24-5):-US president "bypasses the Senate to send John Bolton to the UN [,which] is unlikely to be the same again. Ignoring fierce opposition from civil liberties groups, Democrats and even some Republicans, Bush has chosen to bypass normal Senate confirmation procedures to appoint... outspoken advocate of US global hegemony... In past, Bolton seemed to treat UN with something less than full respect... [He has spoken for] "those neo-cons who regard UN as costly, corrupt, anachronistic impediment to the free exercise of US power...But [some UN forces] believe choice of such outspoken, hard-driving heavyweight ...could actually provide the 'kick up the pants' UN needs. [Appointment]could also help bring some of UN's most ferocious critics behind[its Rice-supported] reforms. [Rice aide] sounded astonishingly supportive of UN, praising its many achievements in bringing economic development, security and peace to world, and pledging US backing for most [UNSG] Annan's proposed reforms, to be endorsed... at UN summit...'Therefore vital... US lead UN, that we have faith in UN,pay our dues, promote reform and contribute to strengthen UN for all the many challenges ahead. [Bolton]role will be more to execute policy than to formulate it.... He could be rather good at that."

 

The Economist 09 Apr 05"The International Criminal Court: Lengthening the Arm of Global Law"(38):-item explains "Consequences of referring Darfur to ICC... UN-appointed commission 'strongly recommended'referral of 'heinous' crimes in Darfur to ICC[, and] UNSC has finally agreed to act, despite US hostility to ICC. Sealed list of 51 prime suspects, drawn up by commission and including names of Sudanese officials, members of state-sponsored militias and Darfuri rebels, handed to ICC's chief prosecutor [who] plans to start immediately to investigate two -year conflict... Three ways ICC can launch investigation. (1) Country where war crimes [may] have taken place can ask ICC to look into them. (2) ICC chief prosecutor can take initiative so long as alleged crimes took place in one of 98 countries which ratified [ICC] treaty. (3) UNSC can make referral, regardless of where crimes took place... If ICC deems Sudan's investigations to be bogus... it will dismiss Sudanese challenge and unleash its prosecutors... US had wanted a blanket immunity from ICC prosecution. But this denied by the nine UNSC members... signed up to ICC...[N]ext time[similar evil], US will find it harder to explain why ICC should not go after it".

 

The Economist 16 Apr 05"China and India: Too Early To Tell"(37):-Article's own summary: "A much-vaunted Sino-Indian 'strategic partnership'is only in its infancy". Extracts: China's PM Wen Jiabao visiting India's PM Manmohan Singh "were probably [both] looking well into future...Cooperation between Asia's giants, accounting for 38% of world's population, may indeed change the world and amount to 'strategic partnership'they have proclaimed... Chief reason for euphoria was accord covering territorial disputes over which the two countries fought war in 1962 and which have soured relations ever since... This week,neighbours moved from an agreement to disagree about border, to an agreement to try to agree. It accepts principle of 'package settlement', covering all sectors - code for what has long seemed the only feasible solution: something not far from status quo. [R]epresentatives consult[ing]'in an earnest manner'... does mark an effort to establish strategic trust. [While reports that] China had backed India's bid for permanent seat on UNSC.,. joint statement...attached 'great importance to status of India in international affairs' ... Other pillar of putative new partnership is economic. [F]ashionable point [was] that, with Indian software as the score and Chinese hardware as the instrument, there is beautiful economic music to be made... Still huge untapped potential in bilateral trade, investment and tourism [but agreement] toconsider 'regional trading arrangement'...Indian fears of economic invasion persist, even as the military threat has faded. Free bilateral trade may be as distant as true strategic partnership".

 

The Economist 23 Apr 05"Rescuing Environmentalism: And the Planet"(Edit.11);"Environmental Economics: Are You Being Served?"(76-8):-Cover of issue and its first Editorial relate to many politicalarguments that "Market forces could prove the environment's best friend". Valuable S&T essay offers much expert global information."Environmental entries are starting to appear on balance sheet. Perhaps soon, best things in life will not be free... [T]reating regulation of water and climate as a utility - a service for which people pay money -...should be a perfectly viable investment. [P]utting cash value on what are called 'environmental', 'ecosystem', or 'ecological'services has been fraught process. [But now,] scienceis producing abundant evidence that natural environment provides wide range of economic benefits beyond obvious ones [timber/fish etc]. Ecologists now know a great deal more than they used to abouthow ecosystems work, which habitats deliver which services, and in what quantity those services aresupplied. Last month saw publication of [UN's] Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, first global survey of ecological services. Authors warn attention will have to be paid to these services if global development goals to be met. [D]ifficult part is providing a precise description of links between structures and functions of various bits of environment, so proper values can be calculated. [S]ignificant progress has been made towards developing techniques for valuing environmental costs/benefits...Many valuation studies...involved water, probably because so obviously valuable ecological service. Forests/swamps...filter and purify water, and act as reservoirs to capture rain/melting snow. When such areas becomedegraded, it may be necessary to make expensive investments in treatment plants/dams/other flood control measures... Valuing ecosystem services can also point to places where inaction is best... Puttingproper value on ecological services bound up with another economic anomaly that haunts environmentaleconomics[:] creation of what economists term externalities - economic impacts made when those taking a decision do not bear all costs (or reap all gains) of their actions. [C]an, in some circumstances,subtract from, rather than add to , country's total wealth. [P]roblems discussed all involve externalitiesas well as need to price ecological services correctly... Public goods are those in everybody's interest to have, but in no one's interest to provide. Clean air, for example... In such situations, first reactionfrequently to legislate to try to ban externality. But more efficient solution can often be what is known ascap and trade scheme, in which law creates both an overall limit to amount of externality in question, whether polluting chemical or destruction of habitat, and market in right to impose externality within limit.Cap and trade schemes best known in context polluting gases [(sulphur/carbon dioxide)and fisheries]. [Mitigation] banks created by permanently protecting privately owned swamps, or land inhabited by endangered species. This creates a supply of environmental 'credits' . Those who want to destroy wetlands, or species-rich habitats, for agricultural or development purposes are able to buy credits from a mitigation bank allowing them to do so. [T]raders now looking for opportunities to arbitrage pollution[e.g. Kyoto. P]romising area is trading of nitrate emissions between factories and farmers... From perspective of someone wanting to borrow money, ['green issues' may] have to be considered from thebeginning, and possibly even acted on. So proposers of a mining project might have to considerdamage to river/downstream fisheries of any additional sediment mine would produce. [E]nvironment brought on to balance sheet. Furthermore, because insurance companies recognise environment can be huge portion of risk in a project, there may be a financial incentive for paying to protect it. [V]aluation of ecosystem services not without its difficulties. Nevertheless, fact that there is growing consensus about how/where it is appropriate is an important step forward for economists and environmentalists".

 

The Economist 07 May 05"Russia and the West: Victory Day Remembered - But Parades in Moscow Should Not Stop the West Confronting Russian Autocracy"(Edit.10):-"Not surprising that history of so cataclysmic an event as WWII should still cast a shadow everywhere today. But at least in most countries of Europe [as well as in Australia, Canada, NZ and USA], people have come to terms with, and in many ways moved beyond, that history - something EU by its very existence seeks to symbolise. Germany hasfully admitted the sins of its past.[See: "Germans and Jews: Uncertain Normality - Some Forgiving, Not Much Forgetting"(48).] Even Japan, slow as it is to accept its faults [to particular annoyance of China and Korea], has repeatedly apologised for its wartime record. The exception... is Russia. Its failure to come clean about the iniquities of its own past is part of a wider story that helps to explain why post-Soviet Russia remains so prickly and troubling. [Russia's President Vladimir] Putin calls himself a democrat. Yethe recently declared collapse of Soviet Union was greatest geo-political catastrophe of 20th century... Hardly uncommon for nations to glorify their wartime histories,... and perhaps it is forgivable. But in the memory of too many Russians, a justified pride in having vanquished Hitler is mingled with a misplacednostalgia for the days of 'greatness' (and terror) under Stalin's own dictatorship. [See: "Victory Day, 60 Years On: The Uses and Abuses of History - Russia's Complicated Attitude to the Best and Worst of Times"(45-6).] Tearing-down of iron curtain and dissolution of Soviet Union achieved remarkably peacefully.Moscow harrumphed when former vassals joined NATO and then EU, but it did not seek actively to stopthem. Nor was Putin able... to prevent spread of 'democratic revolutions' ... But Russians still interfering, politically and militarily, in string of neighbouring countries that were once under Soviet control. Still notsigned border treaties with two of three Baltic countries. [See: "Baltic Borders and the War: Frontier Justice - Why Russia's Borders With the Baltic Countries Remain Disputed"(46).] To neighbours, Putin's Russia looks dangerous - even if, to West in general, weakened Russia is far from threat it was in cold-war days... Russia's failure fully to acknowledge its past is more than case of post-imperial twitching in itsnear-abroad. It is also part and parcel of Putin's shift from liberal democracy towards authoritarianism... Independent media have been muzzled, elections rigged and any hints of opposition neutered, This might seem matter primarily for Russians to fret over, but it also troubles neighbours that have too often suffered from Russian attention. [See: "Charlemagne: Taking On the Bear - Russia's Awkward Position in Europe's Jigshaw"(50).] Foreign investors are worried too. Government... has demonstrated with awful clarity bothlack of any independent rule of law and arbitrariness of Russian state's intervention in business. To westernEuropeans , increasingly reliant on Russia for energy, this too should be matter of great concern. [See; Op.Cit summary: "Russian Oil: King Solomon's Pipes - The Benefits of Keeping Japan and China Guessing"(59-60).] Russia has its pride and special sensitivities. But countries of West would be doing both themselves and Russian people favour by speaking firmly, with one voice, on human rights,democracy, rule of law and brutal war in [Caucasus]. Should urge Putin to confront and transcend the dictatorship of memory by normalising Russia's borders...and to abandon any atavistic dreams of empire".

 

The Economist 28 May 05"Democracy in the Middle East: Now Please Vacate Your Thrones"(Edit.16):-thisEditorial offers a strong but persuasive explanation as to "Why George Bush's freedom talk falls flat in some Arab circles". It first notes that when the US President and representatives say they are in favour of democracy in the region, they are often strongly criticized - e.g. by Amr Moussa, secretary-general of the Arab League - for not giving priority to Palestine. Moussa is right to claim the"Palestinian cause resonates throughout the Arab world. But nonsense to say Arabs want to shelve their own democratic hopes until Palestine resolved". Many note how democracy has strengthened Israel, how both Iraq andPalestinian territories have held elections, and how "people power" has pushed Syrian troops out of Lebanon. Indeed,"most Arabs say in polls that they would like democracy for themselves. If Bush wants democracy for Arabs,.. why no meeting of minds? Part of answer is indeed Palestine... Arabs blame Bushfor helping Israel to thwart Palestinian self-determination, for propping up local dictators and other authoritarians, and for having invaded Iraq [for oil or Zionism]". While some is rubbish/unfair, it's widely believed. In addition, "last thing [Arab] leaders want is to lose power by introducing the democracy US now demands of them. US and Arab allies are therefore locked in an almost surreal dialogue. [Yet Bush]now seems a true believer. In one blunt speech,.. he has said US made a mistake in having spent 60 years excusing the lack of freedom in the Middle East. The Arab authorities... can only feel chilled".

 

The Economist 11 Jun 05"UN Security Council Reform: Curb Your Enthusiasm"(30):-on gloomy prospect of the key body's needed membership update:"A useful proposal and US rebuff". Highlights:"Reform of UNSC [just] advanced a longish step forward... Four countries with most hope of winning new permanent seats - Japan, Germany, India, Brazil - agreed to put off discussion of veto rights... for another 15 years at least... US is unenthusiastic [since] thinks expansion of UNSC should come a definite second to other reforms, such as streamlining UN bureaucracy... Many [members] still doubt UNSC can ever be reformed. [It] has evaded any attempt at real reform. Too many vested interests/national rivalries have been at stake. The G4, as they are known, are proposing that existing 15-member council of five veto-wielding permanent members (US, Russia, Britain, China, France - known as P5) and 10 non-permanent members should be expanded to 25. First six new permanent members would be added, then four non-permanentones, with special attention paid to including countries from Africa and Latin America. [G4] now agree thatnew permanent members' 'right of veto'would not be exercised, at least until whole veto question had beenexamined by UNGA 15 years after planned reforms. [As G4 plan] involves amendment of UN Charter, itrequires approval of at least two-thirds of member states. Countries interested in obtaining a permanent seat would then be asked to submit their candidacies to a vote by a secret ballot of members... Each [of G4] has its own fierce opponent(s). Pakistan cannot abide idea of India getting permanent status; China isappalled that Japan, its old enemy, might join it at top table; jealous neighbours oppose Brazil, already Latin America's most powerful nation; Italy, always feeling left in the cold by Europe's 'big three', has conducted vigorous campaign against Germany. None of these opponents, on their own, could block selection. ButUS attitude will be critical. At present, US is officially supporting only candidacy of Japan".

 

The Economist 16 Jul 05"In Europe's Midst"(Edit.13-4):-"Four young British Muslims became zealots, and the zealots became suicide-bombers.";"Muslim Extremism in Europe: The Enemy Within" (Special Report24-6);-"What turns a man into a terrorist, and what can be done about it?";US:"Fighting Terrorism: Imagining Something Much Worse Than London"(27-8):-"The unwieldy Department of Homeland Securityhas a timely reorganisation, aimed at focusing on most dangerous threats."; "Jihadists in the Middle East: Cradle of War, School of Jihad"(41-2):-"Al-Qaeda's allies turned Iraq into new Afghanistan.";"Israel's Suicide-Bombing: Ploughing on Regardless"(42):-"Suicide-bombers try to derail the Gaza pullout.";"Italy and Terrorism: The Next Target?"(44-5):-"Terrorism is 'knocking at Italy's door, says the interior minister. Most Italians need no persuading."; "London: After the Bombs"(52-3):-"How four suicide attacks by British citizens have changed Britain."; "Ethnic Relations: One Step Back"(53):-"Attacks in London will test analready-embattled group."; "Terrorism Insurance: Change of Calculation"(71):-"The bombings in Londonmay affect a US debate.":-after the serious suicide-bomber explosions of 07 Jul in London, Economisteither collected from professionals, or at least presented in valuable forms, a vast and expert variety of related - and serious - information in the nine good articles listed here. Following each title, their official summaries are offered, since they are both clear and succinct. I particularly stress the Special Report, not because it is critical of Muslims/Islamic doctrine (it isn't), but since it describes how and why young men can become mass killers. (Young) people with twisted/frustrated attitudes can gain/use mass weapons relatively easily in virtually any state on earth and regardless of their religions. (My concern about gradual but inherent global trends of this sort, started this future-looking bibliography over ten years ago...)

 

The Economist 23 Jul 05"Counter-Terrorism in Europe: The Fight Within"(45-6):-"In fits and starts,European countries are learning to co-operate more closely, and to share intelligence, in battle against terrorism... EU members made copious promises to co-operate in fight against terror. An 'action plan', including 150 separate measures, was launched in [Jun 04]. Some two-thirds of these have been translated into political decisions...'Situation centre'in Brussels, where EU members share intelligence assessments, has begun looking at domestic threats as well as external ones... European Commissionproposed more measures, including making explosives more easily traceable and restricting sales of farmfertiliser. EU's embryonic law-enforcement institutions - Europol police agency, and Eurojust, through which prosecutors co-operate - are heavily engaged in anti-terrorism work, building relations with their much bigger brothers in US... Important decisions will come this autumn, such as making personal data more easily available to investigators while also introducing an EU-wide system of data protection. Treading delicately in sensitive territory, the commission is preparing a paper on 'radicalisation'- politelanguage for discontent among young Muslims that prompts a few to become terrorists. But officials stress this will describe problem, not prescribe solutions; only national governments can do that. Nor is there any guarantee that common threats will translate into common action... At everyday level, barriersto co-operation are rarely insuperable... Individual acts of co-operation between European countries areone thing. Longer-term efforts to turn counter-terrorism into a pan-European activity are something else...Moreover, problems are not just legal and technical, but political and ethical. In all European countries,hard questions have been posed by the twin challenges of terrorism and Muslim disaffection."

 

The Economist 23 Jul 05"India and America: Now We Are Six"(Edit.13); "India and America: Together At Last"(37-8):-Both relate to the visit of India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Washington, andselective but significant improvement of relations. Latter description summarized:"US adds substance to its professions of friendship for India";and comments:"Change in US attitude reflects both India's emergence as economic force to be reckoned with, and the rise of neighbouring China. India's economy is only about 40% the size of China's, but its fast growth and young population mean that its global role is increasing, not least because of its thriving information-technology and outsourcing industries".Editorial is concerned: "Has US just destroyed the non-proliferation treaty(NPT), set up 1968 to halt spread of nuclear weapons? [India's PM] walked off with... access to US civilian nuclear know-how and nuclear fuel, despite fact that India has been a declared holder of nuclear weapons since 1998. India not signatory to NPT, and not bound by its provisions, which restrict right to possess nuclear weapons to five original nuclear powers...and impose extensive safeguards on civilian nuclear programs of other member states. But even so, it has always been a tenet of US foreign policy, enshrined in law, that only countries that areNPT members should share in benefits of US civilian nuclear expertise. Being able to buy US reactor components and fuel rods was supposed to be specific reward for renouncing nuclear weapons, not favour to be handed out at will... Danger now:...other friendly countries that considered acquiringnuclear weapons, but decided not to do so because help with their civilian programs was judged to matter more, might think that they too can have it both ways. Another danger:... non-nuclear countries will havemore reason than before to see NPT as charade which lets powerful hold on to their own nukes andallows their friends to acquire them, while excluding everyone else... On balance...it seems US eagerness to cement better relationship with India has led it to damage the effort to contain the spread of nuclear weapons... India might better have been offered something it values even more highly than nuclear help, and deserves far better: US support for its quest to win a permanent seat on UN Security Council". For description of current global debate for creating new permanent/non-permanent UNSC seats: Economist30 Jul 05"The UN Security Council: United We Stand"(27-30)."An unexpected agreement on expansion".

 

The Economist 30 Jul 05"AIDS: Too Much Morality, Too Little Sense"(Edit.13-4); "AIDS in China: Anatomy of an Epidemic"(36-8); "AIDS: No Carnival"(71-2); "AIDS in Brazil: Roll Out, Roll Out"(72):-this issue contains so many strong items dealing with the global seriousness of HIV/AIDS problems and potential controls, instead of simply including their titles under RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, at least their official summaries are presented. Basic point conveyed by the Editorial is that:"Politicians must suspend moral judgments if AIDS is to be defeated". Its strong and specific argument is that:"The lesson for rich and poor alike is that to contain AIDS morality must take second place. Politicians may find it easier to yield to sanctimonious lobbyists than to explain why refraining from judging other people makes more sense.But that does not excuse them. Too many lives are at stake. Major article on AIDS in China is summarized as arguing:"It is not too late to avert a national catastrophe". Some points:"If China is to contain its AIDS epidemic, it will need help, lots of it, from international agencies and NGOs. AIDS everywhere presents a range of problems that are not susceptible to solution by a single agency. One big task, for example, is that of giving information. Many Chinese are still deeply ignorant about AIDS. Stigma attached to diseaseis potent, despite widespread sympathy for peasants [who contracted it through selling their blood], anddespite efforts of a few brave people...who campaign tirelessly against prejudice ...But first China must find answers to the question of how to prevent a drugs-driven epidemic becoming a sex-driven one. If it does that, it has a good chance of containing AIDS. If not, it will discover that all its problems multiply, as Africa and, to a lesser extent, India have already found. China does not have much time." Next article stresses views raised at Third Conference on HIV Pathogenesis and Treatment.Its summary:"AIDStreatment more widely available than ever - but efforts are needed to stop people becoming infected in the first place"."[Conference] is reaction to the huge international AIDS conferences held every two years... which have become jamborees/platforms for activists to bite hands of donor governments/drug companies that feed them. International AIDS Society...thus decided to fill gap-year with purely scientific meeting...It has by and large succeeded...Past few...seen treatment campaign against AIDS accelerate. Distributionin poor countries of anti-retroviral drugs, which keep symptoms at bay, is proceeding apace[,although]not pace WHO would have liked..: 3m to be on these drugs by end of 05. [N]umber will not be achieved until end of 06.[However target] probably not ambitious enough...G8 meeting [Britain]provided new target: 'close as possible to universal access to treatment for all who need it by 2010'... [Yet] several...modelsdiscussed at conference suggest that, without parallel advance in prevention techniques, spread of effective treatment might even increase the spread of the virus. One way to combat this risk is to use network being put into place to deliver treatment to preach message of prevention. Another, just as important, is to find out which prevention techniques actually work." AIDS in Brazil[location of Third] offers:"What can world learn from Brazil's experience of dealing with AIDS?" "Brazil's handling of the epidemic is widely regarded as exemplary... Total [infected] just half [World] Bank's prediction - about 600,000... First lesson is don't be squeamish". Brazil(largely Catholic)hands out free condoms in abundance(20m/month). Drug users treated sensibly: regular supplies of clean needles(3/4 claim never share).Prostitutes: targets of campaigns to promote condom use. Second: treat freely. Law gives all residentsright to best available drug treatment at no cost. (This year $395m on anti-HIV drugs, although in conflict with foreign drug companies, and evades patents and buys or manufactures generics). Third: encouragevoluntary action. By 2000, 500 charities/voluntary groups devoted to AIDS (found best value for money).Fourth: "if you think action is expensive, try inaction"(in addition to savings through fewer infected, period 1996-2002 government spent $1.8billion on anti-retroviral drugs but "estimates that early treatmentsaved it more than $2.2 billion in hospital costs over same period... [A]n aggressive program of prevention and treatment does not seem so costly after all".

 

The Economist 06 Aug 05"Medicine: Catching the Flu"(Edit.10); Medicine: Containing a Pandemic"(63):-Editorial emphasizes that "The world must prepare for pandemic influenza... Given how much money rich countries have spent on preparing for bioteerror attacks, it is surprising how little attention they have paid to possibility of a flu pandemic, which may be likelier and which, if it happens, would probably kill more people. The costs of buying more anti-viral drugs, investing in vaccines, preparing national responses and forging an international plan would not be very high, but these things could make all the difference...[F]lu is a far bigger danger than SARS because it moves so much faster. So, too, must the world's governments if they are to prevent death on a massive scale." The S&T article describes two studies which "suggest it may be possible to prevent a global outbreak of deadly influenza by using anti-viral drugs". In this connection it stresses that: "For many years, virologists have been warning that an outbreak of pandemic influenza is overdue. Unlike the seasonal version, pandemic influenza is usually severe and deadly - the result of a genetic mutation in the virus. [Moreover,] influenza pandemics happen from time to time. Three occurred during the 20th century". The World Health Organization is in advanced negotiations with Roche for the"creation of a global stockpile"of "the anti-viral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu)"that could be "delivered rapidly to the source of an outbreak". [This is good news. Indeed, high-speed andglobal cooperation is now urgently needed in a growing number of fields.]

 

The Economist 13 Aug 05"Leaving Gaza: Goodbye, And After"(Edit.11); "Special Report: Israel's Settlers: Waiting For a Miracle"(21-3):-thrust of Editorial is that"Israel's disengagement from Gaza strip will lead nowhere unless George Bush re-engages in Palestine...Beyond economics, Palestinians need a 'political horizon'- a believable promise that Bush's oft-enunciated'vision'of viable Palestinian state in West Bank as well as Gaza is achievable without recourse to the gun... With US pushing, it should at least be possible to start a process, building first on self-government for Gaza and, in West Bank, a settlement freeze followed by further withdrawals. Israelis and Palestinians are exhausted after five years of violence, andsusceptible to pressure... Bush has kept his distance. Day after Sharon pulls out must be the day that Bush steps in". SR notes that "The row over Israel's biggest evacuation of settlers in over two decadespresages a growing clash over what makes the Jewish state Jewish". It then describes different views that have existed/developed among Jews, and have changed as the world - and Palestinian demography - have affected Israeli circumstances. Economist 20 Aug 05"Jewish History: Facing Zion":-offers a review of the recent book by Howard M.Sachar"A History of the Jews in the Modern World"(Knopf; 830 pages; $40).Review is summarized:"A new history of the Jews is anxious about Israel, less so about Jewish identity".Economist 27 Aug 05"The Status Of Gaza: Now Who Takes the Blame?"(39):-Item examines"The puzzle of Gaza's new legal status". In particular,"the question now looms:'will Gaza still be 'occupied territory'?...Under 1993 Oslo accords, Gaza and West Bank are one unit, so either all of it is' occupied'or none of it is ...Fourth Geneva Convention (1949) lays down what occupier must do for the occupied, such as providing basic services,.. giving aid agencies free access, and - the most egregious of Israel's violations- not settling its own citizens there... Trouble is, international law never imagined anywhere like this - a place neither fully occupied nor completely sovereign... UN will only pass judgement - if ever - whenthings are much clearer. Until then...much will depend on what stance other countries/foreign donors take".Economist 24 Sep 05"Special Report: Palestinians in Gaza: Will They Sink Or Swim?"(29-31):-item looks at serious military/terrorist issues mainly as some of complicating factors facing substantial population(2.8m by 2020) and profound poverty("its near-equals are... Malawi, Burundi, Somalia and Sierra Leone). Report's basic argument is: "Israel's withdrawal has left Gaza seething, lawless, poor, cut off from outside world - and with a one-time chance to make a new start". Analysis is informative and tough but positive.

 

The Economist 27 Aug 05"Stem Cells: Embryos And Ethics"(64):-"A new technique that could make therapeutic cloning less controversial... [R]esearchers demonstrated a new way of creating so-called human stem cells tailored to an individual adult patient... without creating or destroying human embryos... Optimists hope [widely transformable stem cells] might eventually be used to generate replacement tissues/even entire organs... The new method fuses an adult somatic cell -[i.e. not] sperm or egg cells-with an existing embryonic stem cell. The fusion causes the adult cells to undergo genetic reprogramming, giving rise to cells that have the developmental characteristics of human embryonic stem cells. The stem cells can renew themselves indefinitely and transform themselves into many different types of cell. [T]he new technique [still requires figuring] out how to remove embryonic stem cell chromosomes while keeping cell in its reprogrammed state... [I]f there is a way... then new method would have several advantages over established one". Value of research already generating support/law.

 

The Economist 27 Aug 05"Animal Rights: Wronged"(Edit.12); "Animal Rights Extremists: Four Legs Good, Two Legs Bad"(45-6):- Article argues that British law "determines that animal breeders and researchers must be licensed and are inspected... Before an experiment, research laboratory must show... no alternative to using animals - with the likely benefits of the science outweighing any animal suffering... [Moreover,] not all live animal research can be replaced... Cystic fibrosis is caused by one of around 200 defects on a single gene. It has no satisfactory treatment, and sufferers cannot expect to live much past 30... Research could not be carried out on tissue cultures ... nor could it be done on humans - at least, not without killing them to study the results. That amounts to a strong case for animal experimentation.Editorial contends "Science does not deserve to be the target of protests, whatever you think of animal rights... In fact, science should be the last target, wherever you draw the boundaries of animal welfare. For one thing, there is rarely an alternative to using animals in research... The world needs new medicines and surgical procedures just as it needs the unknowable fruits of pure research. And science is, by and large, kind to its animals".

 

The Economist 03 Sep 05"Iraq: Hope Against Hope"(Edit.12); "Iraq: A Nearly Final Constitution"(41-2):-Editorial claims:"Though the draft constitution has not pleased all groups, it deserves to be endorsed"and concludes: "Sunni Arab rejectionists are wrong - and unrealistic - on all counts. They were top dogs before; now they aren't, and nor should they be. New Iraqis are embarking on experiment in devolved, multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian democracy to build a fairer country than before. If draft can be adjusted to placate more Sunnis, so much the better. But if Sunnis hold out en masse, their minority will be ultimate losers, even if US forces do rush for exit, as they are honour-bound not to. Sensible Sunni Arabs will swallow their pride and sign up. If not, they will increase chance of Iraq's fragmentation - just what they say they want to avoid". Article summarized: "It is still unclear whether document agreed upon ... will be endorsed. If it is, will it help snuff out Iraq's insurgency?" It ends: "Sunnis hope that a new document would... softenpresent version's federal character. That is probably a vain hope. Kurds and Shias are wedded to theirbasic bargain: wide autonomy in Kurdish north in return for Shias' ability to carve out a more stridentlyIslamist administration in south. Even if they have to start writing a constitution anew, that bargain is likely to hold - unless, of course, country collapses in sectarian civil war. In that case, all constitutions become irrelevant".

 

The Economist 03 Sep 05"Drugs in Colombia: Hand Picked"(36):-item reports on developments in Latin American state that follow those in Economist's item of 12 Feb 05 above, and constitute"New twists in war on coca"."Colombia's government has based its push against the country's illegal cocaine industryon a massive campaign of aerial spraying of the coca crop with glyphosate, a weed-killer... According to surveys by UN Office on Drugs and Crime, land under coca in Colombia shrank to 86,000 hectares in 2003 from a peak of 163,300 hectares in 2000. But, since then, spraying seems to have brought diminishing returns. According to latest UN survey, land under coca fell only 7% in 2004, to 80,000 hectares even though 136,000 hectares sprayed. So Alvaro Uribe, Colombia's president, has changed tactics. Most important is to pull more coca bushes up by hand... Manual eradiction... cheaper... than spraying. It is more effective, too, as coca requires repeat applications of glyphosate before it dies... Officials say that aerial spraying will remain mainstay of their anti-drug effort. But critics point out that while demand for cocaine remains unchanged, spraying merely drives coca cultivation deeper under jungle canopy, where harder to detect, as well as stimulating development of higher-yielding and herbicide-resistant varieties. Uribe recently suggested that his government buy coca crop from farmers. That smacks of desperation. Not first Latin American president to find himself squeezed uncomfortablybetween US pressure to win 'war on drugs' and market realities that make victory so hard".

 

The Economist 10 Sep 05"The United Nations: The Oil-For-Food Fiasco"(Edit.12-3); "Special Report: The United Nation: Can Its Credibility Be Repaired?"(30-2):-Both items deal with how a decision on UNSG Kofi Annan's program to constructively reform the UN coincides with the release of a serious critique against UN management. In same issue, two other items deal - somewhat critically - with major UN-related global aid programs. These are summarized jointly in a separate article which has somewhat different allocation. All four are deeply relevant to a special UN global summit in New York. Editorial argues:"After more than a year of investigation, Paul Volcker... chose this [week] to publish his report on what went wrong with UN's oil-for-food program in Iraq... Program...basic aim...was to allow Iraq under sanctions to sell...oil so that some basic food/medical needs...could still be met. But Volcker's team confirms that program was riddled with waste, inefficiency and corruption. [Yet] Volcker has found no evidence at all that UNSG himself did anything corrupt [and argues] Annan not responsible for everything that went wrong... UN Security Council tried to keep control through a sanctions committee of national diplomats. Having neither UNSC nor secretariat in clear command was recipe for 'evasion of responsibility at all levels' ... Annan shouldnot be fall guy for US' s failure to muster [UNSC Iraq-invasion] consensus in its favour". SR first reports on Volcker's belief that"failings it found are symptomatic of 'systemic problems' throughout [UN system, which hence] needs thoroughgoing reform - and urgently...Recent studies...come to identical conclusion, including High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change set up by UNSG himself[, which] formsbasis for reform that over 170 heads of state/government to endorse in NY 14-16 Sep... There has beenenormous trouble in drafting so-called 'outcome document'which, based on panel's proposals, to be presented to summit. Bargaining had been mired in furious wrangling between member states, with US pitched against group of developing countries... [Then John Bolton, new US ambassador (op.cit.)] threw negotiations into further crisis by insisting on hundreds of last-minute changes to 39-page draftdocument that everyone else had thought was pretty near complete. [Some alterations demanded] toreinto the delicately balanced 'grand bargain'between rich and poor...Plan was: poor to have Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) reaffirmed, along with promises of more aid and debt relief, pledge to tackle climate change and progress on disarmament. Developed world: to get clear definition of terrorismincluding those considered 'freedom fighters' by some, agreed right to humanitarian intervention, powerfulnew human rights body that would exclude human-rights violators, creation of new 'peacebuilding commission'to help reconstruction of post-war states and UN management reform". Essence of UNSG proposals had been preserved. "But Bolton's line-by-line amendments, including his widely reportedinsistence on deletion of all specific references to MDGs, the International Criminal Court, and Kyoto summit, along with what were perceived as his bullying tactics, opened a Pandora's box. Developing countries retaliated with a string of their own amendments which, if adopted, would have emasculatedwhole document". A rescue operation involving 'core'group of 30 countries was negotiating day and nightat time of publication. Latter half of document offers special analyses on following issues: Use of force and collective security; Humanitarian intervention; The Security Council; Terrorism; Human Rights Council;Non-proliferation; Is Annan to go or to stay?

 

The Economist 10 Sep 05"The UN's Millennium Development Goals: Aspirations And Obligations"(67-8);"The Global Fund: Weaving A Safety Net"(75-6):-both items discuss difficulties faced by critical UN-related aid programs. Both are politically relevant to the special UN global summit in New York 14-16 Sep 05.Item on MDGs looks at them from Finance and Economics viewpoint and concludes they "cannot be met; some can barely be measured. What then are they for?" Five years before Sep 05 summit, "world leaders minted a new set of pledges to free their fellow man from 'the abject and dehumanising conditions' of extreme poverty. Pledges were translated into eight MDGs which aim to halve poverty and hunger, enrol every child in primary school, spare mothers and their infants from untimely deaths, thwart infectiousdiseases, save the environment and forge a 'global partnership'in pursuit of development. [M]ost poor countries will miss almost all 2015 goals... Chief appeal of MDGs is precisely that they convert high rhetoric into hard numbers. But most targets are less rigorous than they look... As 2015 approaches,people will want to know whether MDGs have been met, and UN will not be able to tell... [V]ictory over poverty cannot be so easily purchased... The global targets the world set for itself 5 years age did not emerge from the bottom up, as what might be feasible in each poor country. They were instead imposed from top down. Their fit is thus often rather awkward... Sub-Saharan Africa likely to be generations late.Ambition is a good thing if it encourages countries, rich and poor, to redouble efforts. But in Africa's case, efforts must be quadrupled or quintupled. That is promise international community cannot possibly keep, and so perhaps unwise to make". Global Fund item reports "Tough times ahead for the Global Fund To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. [It] estimates it needs $7.1b from donors to fund projects in 2006 and 2007... This week... it received pledges totalling $3.7b.,. just enough cash to fill [2005] shortfall of roughly $350m, and to pay for renewal of projects already under way. [I]t does not allow...any new projects over next two years - unless more money is forthcoming... New donors... may be found among oil-rich Arab states and also from private sector[, and] several current donors...have yet to makeconcrete pledges for coming two years. [H]ow much US will give fund for 2006 [is] a far cry from the $1.2b that AIDS lobby believes US should be giving next year to pull its weight... To date, fund has pushed $1.5b out into the field, enabling 220,000 people with AIDS to start treatment, as well as 600,000 withtuberculosis and 1.1m with malaria... For all its teething troubles, fund has proved good way for world leaders to honour their pledges to do more for international public health. But to do so even better, itneeds to professionalise its operations and bring in more people with strong experience in business and finance to manage the billions of dollars it seeks to attract in future".

 

The Economist 24 Sep 05:-"Flu Vaccine: Preparing For A Pandemic"(95-6):-S&T item relates to Economist06 Aug 05 Editorial and S&T on related subject("Medicine:..."). This major article argues "More vaccine is needed to prepare world for an influenza pandemic... Aches and pains that most people know as flu could mutate into a superflu that might kill tens of millions of people within two years. [T]hat is what may well happen... Many scientists now believe that another influenza pandemic is inevitable some time soon.Currently a strain of bird flu in widespread circulation to which humans have no natural immunity. This strain has killed more than 60 people so far, about half the number infected. Small pockets of human-to-human transmission has already been seen... Geographical extent of bird flu means it is not question ofif a strain emerges that can be transmitted easily between humans, but when... World health ministers meeting to discuss how to pool resources, boost surveillance and improve capacity to contain and respond to an outbreak... WHO wants more governments to draw up preparedness plans (only 40 have these so far) and agree on how they will coordinate their responses. One leading concern is scarcity of flu vaccine. Although WHO's new global stockpile of anti-viral drugs is a first line of defense [see 06 Aug],only sure way of protecting billions of people against superflu is to vaccinate them. Few would have natural immunity. Could also take six months from appearance of first superflu strain to produce a vaccine... World woefully unprepared for pandemic. Entire capacity for flu-vaccine production only 300m shots/year... Yet in case of superflu, several billion people would need vaccination... Vaccine must be produced each year from scratch because, each year, the influenza virus changes... Most world's fluvaccine produced in nine countries... Without international agreements now, high risk of inadequate, inequitable and delayed supplies of vaccines... [Material on current scientific research.] Governments need to buy all of seasonal vaccine that national health agencies have said would be worthwhile. It would also help for governments to give manufacturers more long-term certainty over amount of vaccine theyplan to buy each year... In longer term, there will be more options";

 

The Economist 24 Sep 05"Afghanistan's Parliamentary Elections: Putting Steel Into Karzai"(Edit.17);"Afghanistan's Elections: Democracy, Sort Of"(54):-Overall conclusion: "A relatively peaceful vote, butAfghanistan's future still not secure... Parliamentary and provincial elections held 18 Sep were violent, with19 polling stations attacked by Taliban insurgents and a dozen people killed. Intimidation and fraud wereevident, compounded by confusing voting system, whereby each candidate stood as independent. Butthis was much less chaos than had been predicted... [T]urnout...at around 50% nonetheless bespoke strong support for democracy and accountable governance[; but] promised recovery lies further ahead than ruination lies behind... By preventing... political parties President sought to ensure weak opposition...Of 207 'commander-candidates' identified before poll, merely 32 disqualified...Karzai to blame [and] must now undo harm his weakness has done, and ensure no elected candidate/other official maintains a militia. To persuade Karzai to do this, allies must add steel to their assurances. [U]ncertain whether [NATO] allies would fill the breach US would like. Must do so. [At stake] are fights against Taliban, al-Qaeda and drugdealers... Ultimately no western power can end insurency raging in southern/eastern Afghanistan... Will take years, [b]ut... Pakistan could reduce the killing...and must arrest its old friends, Taliban leaders";

 

The Economist 01 Oct 05"Protests in China: The Cauldron Boils"(38-9):-"Chinese government getting increasingly twitchy about... rapid growth in number/scale of public protests. [F]ace serious instability? Probably not, for now at least. But in longer term, reasons to worry... Almost always ['mass incidents' ] sparked by local grievances, rather than antipathy to party's rule... [Officially,] some 74,000 protests in [04], involving more than 3.7m. [D]emonstrations involving more than 100 occurred in 337 cities and 1,955 counties in 10 months[of 04. P]olice forces merging existing anti-riot and counter-terrorist units into new 'special police'... In some ways, unrest makes China look much more like normal developing country than rigidly controlled system it was until early 90s. Increasingly common to encounter small-scale protests in Chinese cities that only few years ago would have horrified order-obsessed cadres. [O]fficials often saygreater social unrest normal in developing countries with per capita GDP between $1,000 and $3,000...Party's dilemma: much of unrest product of rapid economic growth, so keen to maintain. [E]xpansion of cities has fuelled clashes with peasants whose land needed for construction. Some argue these mostly isolated protests, if handled sensitively, could help China maintain overall stability by providing people with way of venting frustrations. But [also said:] unrest is sign China lacks channels for people toair discontent in more orderly fashion. Widespread corruption and increasingly conspicuous wealth fuelcontempt for officialdom that can easily erupt into...class-based rioting. [S]hould economy falter, urbanChina could be faced with twin dangers of angry middle class saddled with big mortgage commitments/declining property prices,... as well as big increase in unemployed... Widespread middle-class discontent, combined with blue-collar dissatisfaction, would be much bigger threat to stability than China now faces".

 

The Economist 08 Oct 05"Terrorism: The Bomber Will Always Get Through"(Edit.12-3); "Indonesia: Bali, Again"(51-2):-Editorial addresses general threat of terrorism in Indonesia, South-East Asia, and world."Once again,a balmy Bali night has been ripped apart by bombs, aimed at innocent foreign holidaymakersthough mostly killing innocent Indonesians... This latest outrage may have succeeded in reminding world of region's vulnerability, but its perpetrators losing. Caliphate was always a crazy vision, and bombersare failing to achieve even their more modest ambitions... If caliphate is unrealisable dream, what do terrorists in South-East Asia seek to achieve? One purpose of terror is to force governments intorepressive measures, which alienate people and then, supposedly, generate support for causes terrorists espouse. There is not much sign of this happening anywhere in South-East Asia, with exception of ham-fisted reponse of Thai government to its separatist movement. Constraints of democracy have mostly keptresponse to terror proportionate... Another of aims of terrorism is to inflict economic damage, soweakening target government. Yet there is little sign of this happening either. All of South-East Asia'seconomies, even that of Philippines, are more or less booming, growing at 4% a year or better. Indonesia's grew by 5.2% in second quarter of this year. Most terrorists can hope for is to hurt notoriously nervy tourist trade. But tourism is only about 5% of Indonesia's economy, lower figure than for most other countries in region... Terrorists will always manage to kill people, if they are cunning enough or pick easy enough targets... But for terrorists, this is far cry from victory". Article stresses:"Indonesia resolutely unspooked".

 

The Economist 22 Oct 05"Controlling Pollution: The Greening of China"(43-4):-Summary of article:"China is investigating whether its rigid system for assessing the performance of party leaders and civil servants can be used to tackle pollution". "China is trying to devise and embed into its assessment of officials a way of calculating a 'green GDP'- which allows for environmental costs in national accounts - to help mitigate some of these excesses. President Hu Jintao... intended China should pay more heed [in pursuing growth] to such issues as environment[al costs, e.g. fatal air pollution] and the depletion of natural resources [e.g. fresh water]. Ten regions, including Beijing, are carrying out a pilot project in green [i.e. both positive and negative] GDP assessment... This would make China the pioneer of a statistical approach that no other country has adopted - and which many economists around the world eschew as an attempt to quantify the unquantifiable". [Article is thus generally sceptical about both the accurate and relevant quantification and honesty of regional Chinese officials. However, the vast scale and range of the serious 'costs' generated by global industry/agriculture today must be calculated as accurately and fast as possible. The fault in China is not with 'green'measurements - whatever that word means -but with a silly leftover from communist 'central planning'. 'Negative'measurements are essential - and are being calculated in all 'rich'countries already - and often reflected in laws. The broadness of this issue is summarized in the Cover Story/Editorial of The Economist 23 Apr 05(op.cit.) entitled "Rescuing Environmentalism: And the Planet" and "Environmental Economics: Are You Being Served?".]

 

The Economist 22 Oct 05"Russia and the Caucasus: Try Being Tender as Well as Tough"(Edit.15-6);"Corruption in Russia: Blood Money"(53-4):-the concerned Editorial and the heavily critical article do not duplicate their ominous descriptions of Russian faults. But their joint effect is to report that the largest state on earth is suffering from - and possibly spreading abroad - politically dangerous policies thatalready generate fury and instability. Editorial draws its concern about Moscow's pride in defeating anarmed rebel assault on the Caucasus city of Nalchik, when the hundreds of armed men were locals, notalready-rebellious Chechens. "After Nalchik, it looks as though the Caucasian Cassandras, who warn ofinstability engulfing the entire region, are being vindicated... Insurgents will never achieve their aim ofpan-Caucasian caliphate [but] might... create pan-Caucasian chaos: a catastrophe for Russia and far beyond... Russia/Putin share the responsibility for three reasons: the brutality/lawlessness of Russia'ssecurity services... across the region;... Kremlin's approach to regional governments, involv[ing] pliant but unpopular bosses;... and the corruption that blights Caucasus even more than the rest of Russia. [The article is summarized: "From terrorism in the north Caucasus to the boardrooms of Moscow, corruption is Russia's biggest problem".] Fatalistic observers blame these problems on the northCaucasus' s wretched past, with its ethnic rivalries, incessant wars, deportation of entire nations by Stalin, and Soviet mixing of fractious peoples into unnatural administrative units. But history need notcontinue to repeat itself. Given its location, and the role it plays in global jihadist rhetoric, the world should be more concerned about north Caucasus. [T]he peoples... must be persuaded that politics in Russia will let them address their problems peacefully... Using force to bind in the Russian empire's most fissiparous area has only spread misery. Democracy, if Putin will only try it, might work better".

 

The Economist 12 Nov 05"Torture: How To Lose Friends And Alienate People"(Edit.14-6):-Essence: "Bush administration's approach to torture beggars belief", yet deep concerns regarding irresponsible actionsby US government are of global relevance. Detailed case against use of torture by any government was stated by Michael Ignatieff The Lesser Evil:..(op.cit.). Thrust of Editorial: "You would imagine Bush would welcome issue where US position should be luminously clear - namely amendment passed by Congress[90-9] to ban US soldiers/spies from torturing prisoners. Indeed,after disastrous stories of prisoner abuse,.. you might imagine that a shrewd president would have sponsored such a law himself to set record straight. But you would be wrong. [Bush] lamely tried to explain...he would veto any such bill, but 'We do not torture'. [Bill states:]'no individual in custody or under physical control of US government, regardless of nationality or physical location, shall be subject to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment'. [Aim:]to clear up any doubt that could possibly exist about US standards. That doubt does, alas, exist - and has been amplified by administration's heavy-handed efforts to stifle...amendment... White House has steadfastly tried to keep 'enemy combatants' beyond purview of US courts, whose defencesecretary has publicly declared Geneva Conventions do not apply to battle against al-Qaeda, and whoseJustice once produced infamous memo explaining how torture was part of president's war powers...Some people think there should be system of 'torture warrants' for special cases. But where exactlyshould line be drawn?... If the pragmatic gains in terms of information yielded are dubious, losses to USin terms of public opinion are clear and horrifically large... Administration has...contrived to turn US' s own human-rights record into subject of legitimate debate... World still waiting for clear statement of US principles on treatment of detainees... Every enemy of terrorism should hope[Bush signs] soon".

 

The Economist 26 Nov 05"The Balkans, Ten Years On: Europe's Banlieue"(Edit.12):-argument that "Balkan war zones cannot be sealed off - or safely ignored", is amplified by three articles, also briefly identified.Editorial's summary:"Balkans [are] Europe's...most unstable and wildest corner. To European Union,.. its squalid Balkan backyard is embarrassment. Indeed, there are questions whether it is part of Europe at all... Europeans feel uneasy...partly because of blunders they have made... In fact,..Balkan wars are as easy to control as people want them to be; but they stop only when [all the] powers act together... Now, Balkan guns have mostly fallen silent, and region [is] at another crossroads. In a year's time,Kosovo may be independent, Bosnia is gradually turning into a functioning state. Montenegro may vote to break with Serbia. Accord that saved Macedonia from civil war seems to be holding. An era of intensive care [of Kosovo and Bosnia] may be ending... Among six republics of old Yugoslavia, there is only one European super-star, Slovenia; and Croatia is back on European track after wobbling off it. [But in] Albania and much of ex-Yugoslavia, the forces ranged against the state - crime syndicates and armed nationalists- are often more than a match for legitimate business and politics... Total population of Balkans' mostproblematic parts is barely 20m; their per head income is barely a fifth of EU average. [To] just quarantinethem... is not an option[;] region is a big net exporter of crime. Hard as things are now, they would beworse if rich Europeans tried - and inevitably failed - to seal Balkans off. [T]here is huge unspent energywhich will find malign outlets unless a healthy, outward-looking economy can put idle hands to work... RichEuropeans cannot ignore region... Another reason... is that events there can have repercussions inunexpected places, in part because of religious solidarity... Effects of any new failures in Balkans will befelt well beyond region. Like it or not, west Europeans must remain engaged in their squalid south-east, offering advice/money/ultimate prize of admission to EU. Otherwise woes of Balkans will come to them";"East European Economies: East, West and the Gap Between"(63-4):-item aims at "Assessing whether the poorest post-communist countries can ever catch up". Balkan states are included. It concludes:"countries most in need of faster reforms/more growth/better public services tend also to have weak institutions/bad geographical locations/unhelpful neighbours that give least chance achieving success"."Bosnia Ten Years On: Peaceful, Rebuilt But Still Divided"(64-6):-thrust: "Ten years after Dayton accords, testing ambition is to bring Bosnia and rest of ex-Yugoslavia into EU". Bulk of long article about Bosnia'scomplex ethnic challenges and political/economic future. Ends: "[M]any in former Yugoslavia still gloomy. Region suffers from low standards of living/serious brain drain, and frustration widespread. Yetslowly progressing towards EU membership. "Bosnia's Political Culture: Blame It On Paddy"(65):- reference is to Lord (Paddy) Ashdown carrying substantial governmental powers and EU authority. "Formany Bosnians, it seems natural for a high representative to give orders to their leaders. [But Ashdown] believes it is high time for Bosnians to take responsibility for their own affairs".

 

The Economist 17 Dec 05"The Balkans and Europe: Testing Times"(48-9); "Balkan History: A Better View of the Bad Guys"(48):-these two, published so soon after 26 Nov 05 four, illustrate how fast the post-Yugoslav terrotories are facing important challenges - for better or worse. "Why nerves are jangling from Croatia to Macedonia[;] 2006 will be busy - and perhaps dangerous. Arrest of Ante Gotovina, a former Croatian general, has at least crossed one item off [EU frustration] list. The only Croat fugitive still wanted by UN war-crimes tribunal in Hague, he faces charges of murder/ethnic cleansing during the [1995] operation to end Serb rule in Krajina[, huge area of Croatia for long inhabited by Serbs, with]flight of up to 200,000 Serbs. That he was picked up in Spain, after tip-off from Croatian government, suggests it had at last regained control over its security services. The threat of suspending Croatia's talks on EU accession... for failure to cooperate with UN - has now been lifted. A [similar] threat still hangs over Serbia/Montenegro[;] all six remaining [UN] fugitives are Serbs... Likely some parts of security services know whereabouts two biggest fish, Radovan Karadzic, leader of Bosnian Serbs in war 1992-5, andRadko Mladic, his military commander". Reuters"Talks on Mladic Surrender Under Way: Report"NYT 25 Dec states:"Serbian police expert said decisive surrender talks were under way between Serb authorities and top war crimes fugitive [Mladic]. Former...chief said... wartime Bosnian Serb military leader driving hard bargain. Belgrade under intensified pressure to hand over fugitives... or be halted on its paths to EU and NATO. [Karadzic and Mladic] charged with genocide for 1995 Srebrenica massacre of 8,000 Muslims, and Sarajevo siege which claimed over 10,000 lives".[Meanwhile, EU finds acceptable] "Montenegro'sreferendum law[to determine whether its majority wants to stay with Serbia.It] may hold its vote Apr 05. Ifopposition boycotts it, independence (and instability) may be result - though, with luck, not violence". While no Economist para on Bosnia alone, Reuters"Bosnian Parties Agree to Stronger Central Cabinet: US"NYT 19 Dec reported:"Bosnia's leaders agreed to create stronger central cabinet, step toward easing ethnic divisions and forming more efficient decision-making body, US amb said. Bosnia, which wasdivided into Muslim and Serb halves after 92-5 war, now has 3 governments, one for each half and acentral government. [Amb]said Muslim, Croat and Serb politicians agreed to make central cabinet more efficient by specifying role of PM and giving him power to choose and dismiss members of his cabinet. They also agreed to set up two new ministries: Agriculture and Technology, Science and Protection of Environment... Bosnia had faced threat that, without removal of ethnic divisions in governing structures, its progress could be greatly delayed".] Kosovo, since 99... under jurisdiction of UN even thoughtechnically part of Serbia. Over 90%, ethnic Albanian, want full independence. Martti Ahtisaari, former Finn president, now started discussion of future status, maybe recommend...form of independence, with...international mission taking over from UN. EU does not want to rule Kosovo, but knows it must play big role in future... If 'disaster scenario'struck... could conceivably lead to flight of province's entire Serbianpopulation of 100,000 (out of 2m)". Reuters adds:"Kosovo Could One Day Be Self - Sufficient: UN Envoy"NYT 20 Dec:"Kosovo has enough natural resources, including low-grade coal, to one day make it economically self-sufficient, [Ahtisaari said]. Aimed at determining whether Kosovo gains independence or remains part of Serbia, [he] said economic development would be top priority in negotiations... 'I think there is, in future, possibility for sustainable economic development in Kosovo'." Macedonia, which in2001 almost descended into civil war between majority Macedonians and minority ethnic Albanians, ison tenterhooks. Only the prospect of EU membership now holds country together". Radio Free Europe"Macedonia Celebrates Becoming EU Candidate"17 Dec:-"EU leaders accepted Macedonia's candidacy for membership this morning at the end of their summit in Brussels. Macedonian PM...called it 'good day for European Union but historic for Macedonia'... EU officials have indicated it may take years before membership talks. They say the country's entry will depend on EU's ability to absorb more newcomers". Other Environment 17 Dec article reports that new/historically-objective manuals have finally been written.

 

The Economist 14 Jan 06"Nuclear Proliferation: Misreading Iran"(Edit.16); "Iran's Nuclear Programme: When the Soft Talk Has to Stop"(Special Report 29-31); "Iran's Psychology: Whistling in the Gloom"(30):-Special Report is summarized by the essence of the global dilemma when a medium-sized state appears determined to create nuclear weapons either for military or terrorists' use: "Now that Iran is crossing a clear red line, what can the world do?" Editorial highlights:"In truth, [Iran under President Ahmadinejad] is not irrational. It has so far played a shrewd and winning hand both in Iraq and in its nuclear game of cat-and-mouse with the West and IAEA. Nor unpredictable [-its] long-standing plan to put itself [closer to] building an atomic bomb(see SR. So]Iran is dangerous. [Israel would see itself threatened by a nuclear Iran, but more likely dangers are that it] might feel emboldened to pursue a more adventurous foreign policy [and that] many other countries [in Mideast] will be sorely tempted to follow... Iran's [foreign] fearsare understandable [although it] no longer faces a threat from its historical foe[: Iraq. Yet it] may be thatIran just isn't the status quo power the soothers want to think it is. Its leaders... remain loyal to Khomeini's legacy - intent on mastering their region and fulfilling Iran's destiny as vanguard of militant Islam. If that is the case, it is not only Israel that has much to fear if Iran breaks out of NPT to go nuclear. So does US,which in Iran may come to face an even more potent opponent than al-Qaeda... So do the Arab regimes...Maybe there are two Irans, oscillating between fear and ambition. Whichever.,. it is clear by now thatrelying on talk alone to stop Iran from going nuclear has failed. It is time to go to UNSC and try sanctions".Economist 06 May 06"A Nuclear Iran: Unstoppable?"(Edit.13-4); "Iran and the Bomb: A Government That Thrives on Defiance"(Special Report 25-6); "The Neighbours: A Sequel Nobody Wants"(Special Report 26-7):-Editorial updates the above and is summarized by:"Be tough now, to prevent military conflict later". It concludes: "A combination of tougher penalties and juicier carrots may still not be enough to avoid a crisis. But they are surely worth a try". The two elements of Special Report are thoughtful about political trends/thinking in/by both Iran and its varied neighbours. The first concludes:"In this time of uncertainty, the [Iranian] authorities see their job as that of managing public opinion. Military attacks might make it easier, since would surely galvanise Iranians against the foreign aggressor. The impact of new sanctionsis harder to assess. Ahmadinejad's pugnacious optimism, however, may soon be tested. The second concludes:"Given the choice between eventual acceptance of a nuclear Iran and the more immediatedanger of a vicious backlash, most of the region's regimes would opt for appeasement".

 

The Economist 14 Jan 06"UN [Commission on Human Rights] Reform: Fix It or Scrap It"(Edit.17):-Text's own summary:"Serial violators of human rights should be booted off the human-rights commission". Highlights from Editorial: "UN was founded to promote peace, prosperity and human rights. It is doingsomewhat better on the first two counts [but,] once revered as creator of all great universal human-rights rules/instruments, 53-member Commission on Human Rights has been thoroughly discredited...Reasonfor this is simple enough. Present committee is packed with members who are themselves serial abusers of human rights.,. their main purpose [being] to protect themselves from criticism. At present, [suchmembers] include Zimbabwe, Sudan, China, Cuba, Saudi Arabia, Nepal and Russia. [UNSG] Annancalled for replacement of commission... by a leaner, tougher, year-round Human Rights Council, which would be ready to act whenever serious abuse was discovered, and whose members should have a solid record on human rights... Leading democracies backed the idea; the serial abusers did not. [Annan'sproposal has barely survived.] Now agreement on need for a new body, on a par with Security Council [UNSC], that would meet several times a year including, when necessary, for emergencies. But its size, powers and composition are still up for grabs. US [and other democracies?] want no more than 30 members, all with solid human-rights credentials, elected by a two-thirds majority of UNGA, along withroutine review of human rights in all 191 UN member states. The abusers want as big a body as possible(to maximise their chance of getting a seat), elected by simple majority, as at present, with no membershipcriteria, and no automatic peer review. [Even 'middle-ranking'states fear having their minor abuses putunder spotlight.] If agreement is stymied, next-best solution: wind existing commission up altogether". For other reports on this debate see William H.Luers CFR 06 Jan 06 & Warren Hoge NYT 02 Feb 06(op.cit.).

 

The Economist 04 Feb 06"Special Report: Political Islam: Forty Shades of Green"(22-4):-essay argues:"Islam's main political arms differ greatly in both tactics and aims".Highlights:"[US] president has called Islam a peaceful religion, bringing 'hope and comfort'to over billion people. [But] many Muslims[differ] about Bush's attitude to faith[, and he] may not be right when says broad clash of civilisations can be avoided. [P]lenty of new evidence to support [imminent clash. Iran's] president vows to destroy Israel, its nuclear researchers back to work, and it is sponsoring terror. [L]eaders of al-Qaeda... tell supporters that war against 'crusaders' and Jews very much alive. [B]in Laden warns that deadly attacks on US stillbeing planned [;] deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri declares has survived attempt on his life...Islamic movement[Hamas won] victory in Palestinian elections [, bringing] delight to all fellow members of international...Muslim Brotherhood. [Hence] observers might be forgiven for thinking political Islam on march against West. In fact Islamist movement ...highly quarrelsome/diverse, and in many ways its internal divisions aredeepening... Hamas victory... was disturbing in at least[:]corridors of power in Arab states [that fear Brotherhood; and] al-Qaeda terrorist network[, furious with Hamas playing] democratic game... Two best known forms of political Islam..have common ideological origins [b]ut differ hugely over politics/tactics.Al-Qaeda rejects division of world into modern states[;] only boundaries that matter: between Islam...and infidels. Hamas/Brotherhood[accept real] national boundaries...Vast religious differences[separate Sunni and Shia, who] still give sharp edge to conflicts of present day[Iraq]. In doctrine and ethos, simple, back-to-basics Sunni Islam from which Brotherhood/al-Qaeda sprang is about as different as any Muslim practice could be from sophisticated scholarly world of Iranian Shias. But when it comes to [their terrorism, groups] have no qualms about tactical cooperation... Yet doctrinal differences matter[e.g. elections]. NowHamas ...must decide how much more of 'western game'it is prepared to play [,and] will need theological licence ...for political choices[; and] Brotherhood has huge stake in success of Hamas government which could be model of political Islam... Al-Qaeda and Brotherhood are entirely different [in that al-Qaeda supports violence] anywhere it can hit back at western enemy[, while Brotherhood/Hamas justifyviolence] only in exceptional circumstances of 'self-defence'and 'occupation'[Israel/Iraq]. [Next sectionoffers history of organizations and origins/views of current leaders.] Stated aim of Brotherhood: to re-Islamise society, and only thereafter the state. Sharia...into being...only when people freely convinced of its virtues... Occupation of Iraq has made it appear, to many people in Mideast, that US is now main arbiter in balance of power between different components of Islamic world... Contrasts between different varieties of Islam, and Islamism, are not trivial - either in their teachings or the behaviour they inspire.Western world needs to know about them, if only to know which outcomes and shifts of policy areconceivable, and which are not. [But West should avoid being newly] blamed for divisions". Closely related articles in same issue: "Democracy and Islam: The One Thing Bush Got Right"(Edit.9):-"For all his other foreign-policy mistakes, Bush right about democracy.[N]o obvious reason why Arab world must remain exception [among Muslim areas]; "Dealing With Iran: A Rare Diplomatic Unity"(11):-"Defiant Iranwill not be convinced by words alone"; "Afghanistan: Heading South"(12):-"[N]eeds more and betterforeign involvement. Above all, it needs security"; "[US] State of the Union:Running on Empty"(25-6):-"Bush still struggling with consequences of invading Iraq/unleashing democracy in Mideast...Repeat[ed]familiar theme about democracy being alternative to terrorism. [T]owards Palestine, Bush made good pointthat more to democracy than just elections: wider challenge of building civil society. But... still seemsflummoxed about what to do when Muslims use elections as opportunity to elect extremists. [C]ondemned Iran's nuclear ambitions.[C]alled for Iranian people to solve own problems, but didn't suggest ways to foment popular resistance to clerical rule"; "Afghanistan: Taming the Badlands"(37-8):-"After painful prevarication, NATO gets serious about peacekeeping"; "Palestine: To Whom Will Hamas Listen?"(41-2):-"Hamas' s win in Palestine's general election has landed it with heap of problems/preciousfew ideas, yet, about how to solve them";"Religion and Free Speech [in Britain]: Propheteering"(52):-"[B]ill against religious hatred was in trouble";"The Iraqi Insurgency: What's Really Going On?"(74-5):- Review of Ahmed S.Hashim Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq(Cornell Univ Press/Hurst 05):"Agrim view of the violence in Iraq from inside the US camp".

 

The Economist 04 Feb 06"Romania and the European Union: Netting the Untouchables" (48):-entry of all nations in the south-east Balkan zone to EU would contribute to wider political/economic/crime stability."Romania's efforts to satisfy EU are bearing fruit - belatedly... Since the topping of Nicolae Ceausescu in1989, politics in the biggest Balkan country have seen the theft matched only by impunity. No longer. In a huge criminal-justice shake-up, Romania is replacing most of its judges and prosecutors.[N]ew law...requiring officials and their families to publish their assets and incomes [, plus] much ridicule of theexcesses made by former untouchables... Other changes... include random allocation of cases,...computerised courtrooms, quicker trials and better bailiffs... Romanians' cynicism about their rulers is ebbing... Two figures symbolise the new mood. [J]ustice minister now faces down tycoons and politicians, used to a minister who takes orders rather than gives them. The other[: P]resident Traian Basescu... is nowdragging Romania through 16 years of missed reforms. Justice is only one example. Another is child protection... Basescu['s] blunt speech and populist touch... please the larger number that want change.... Romanians still seem ill-informed about the effects of EU membership... When customs barriers fall, there will be a blast of new competition... But the gains should be huge: investor confidence, more freedom to travel. At least 2m of Romainia's 22m people work abroad, mostly in farm jobs. [T]here is plenty for EU to dislike about Romania - but keeping it out would not speed its progress".

 

The Economist 11 Feb 06"The Limits To Free Speech: Cartoon Wars"(Edit.9); "Special Report: Islam and Free Speech: Mutual Incomprehension, Mutual Outrage"(24-5); "Racial and Religious Hatred: Of Imams and Nazis"(26):-all relate thoughtfully to global emotions/demonstrations/violence/law related to Danish press cartoons on Prophet Muhammad. Editorial core: "No question these cartoons offensive to many Muslims.. They offend against convention in Islam that Prophet should not be depicted [and] because theycan be read as equating Islam with terrorism... Not good idea...to insult people's religious or any other beliefs just for sake of it. But that is and should be their own decision... In a free country, people should be free to publish whatever they want within the limits set by law[, and drawing that] line requires fine judgements by both lawmakers and juries. [T]he fewer constraints that are placed on free speech, the better. Limits designed to protect people are easier to justify than those that aim in some way to control thinking... Freedon of expression... is not just a hard-won human right but the defining freedom of liberal societies... Shouldn't the right to free speech be tempered by a sense of responsibility? Of course. [M]ediaought to show special sensitivity when the things they say might stir up hatred or hurt the feelings ofvulnerable minorities. But sensitivity cannot always ordain silence... Long before making a drama out of Danish cartoons, a great many Muslims had come to equate the war on terrorism with a war against Islam. [Hence] many things Western countries could usefully say and do to ease relations with Islam, butshutting up their own newspapers is not one of them. [F]reedom of expression is not just a pillar ofwestern democracy, as sacred in own way as Muhammad is to pious Muslims. [S]preading/strengthening it may be one of the best hopes for avoiding incomprehension that can lead civilisations into conflict".

 

The Economist 11 Feb 06"Syria: He Doesn't Know Where To Go"(43-4):-essay's summary:"Bashar Assad is unsure which way to jump, while the West, especially US, is unsure how or where to push him".Highlights: "Assad... between two contrary methods of survival[:] proffer the hand of friendship to Turkey, the West , EU, even to US and foes at home[; or] wave a furiously defiant Baathist fist at most of... world[;] flaunt friendship with Iran[;] praise Palestinian rejectionists[;] promote Hizbullah[;] scorn UN commission[; be] last bastion of pan-Arab pride in face of plodding/bullying of evil, Zionist-led West. In last few weeks, [#2 prevailed:]Danish/Norwegian embassies were torched[;]Assad ostentatiously embraced Ahmadinejad[;] Assad casigated the West for a range of sins[; re Hariri death], Assad still sounds loth to come to terms, [with] no willingness to consider sacking, let alone hand over for trial, family members. Plainly, Assad isin a bind - and cannot see how to wriggle out of it. [R]eform-minded Syrians have argued he would helphimself if he loosened system, winning popularity/room for manoeuvre. [But] nothing fundamental [has]happened[; he] has dashed optimists' hopes he will take bolder strides towards general liberalisation.Tone has become surlier/more confrontational. [Factors (details all op.cit.): anniversary of Hariri's death;Ghazi Kanaan's suicide(?); Abdel Halim Khaddam's fury. State-run Syrian press habitually accuses Westof waging war on Arabs/Islam, with Syria as a chief victim. To a degree, this may work. Syrians do feelunfairly isolated [and] Assad may still personally be quite popular...Yet drab economy... feeds a well ofresentment. Opposition weak/divided but has been gaining courage, especially since release of five prominent figures [in prison since] 2001. Syrian Muslim Brotherhood branch still almost certainlystrongest underground opposition... Most potent change among opponents[:]Islamists/secularists seem more willing to build joint front... Many independent-minded Syrians doubt whether system so corrupt/ centralized capable of reform without collapsing...US unsure how to proceed..Recent Assad oscillations,most recently rhetorical confrontation, suggest despair, even panic. [N]o sign he has any plan at all.

 

The Economist 18 Feb 06"Haiti: Making the Best of an Election in a Failed State"(Edit.13-4); "Haiti's Electoral Aftermath: The Rubbishing of a Vote"(35):-Editorial's official summary:"Rene Preval's tortuous triumph should not be the prompt for outsiders to go home". Highlights: "For past two years, UN mission has been trying to turn Haiti into a nation. A crucial step was presidential election 07 Feb. [D]ay went well [but] counting of votes did not [details are in the article]. At first it seemed Rene Preval, former president, won clear victory. Preval was once an ally of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the firebrand populist, who was pressed to resign as president by US and France two years ago. As vote count drew to a close,Preval's vote had fallen to 48.7% which meant a run-off ballot - even though no other candidate got more than 12%. His supporters cried fraud. [W]hether... incompetence or a conspiracy,... several worrying signs. Suspiciously high number of blank ballots were cast and tens of thousands of ballots went missing. Some found, burned, on a rubbish dump. Government agreed to inquiry, but wanted to exclude UN from it. Finally, agreement to exclude some blank ballots, pushing Preval's vote to 51% [and] allowinghim to be declared winner. Haiti's immediate need: clear democratic mandate. But... take more... if country of 8.3m people with income/head just $390/year to cease being a failed state. UN mission someachievements to its credit... Violence largely confined, [but still] enough to blight country's prospects. UN needs to be more assertive: (1) electoral authorities need outside oversight; (2)UN's 9,000-strong force of troops and police should be strengthened [French-speakers to build police force]; (3) need UN and aid donors to take less cautious approach. Breaking grip of violent drug gangs would be easier if UN offers social projects, more jobs, etc. [In short term, Haitians] need help to break vicious circle ofdisorder/political deadlock/poverty. UN should finish [its] job - lest it has to start all over again in future".

 

The Economist 25 Feb 06"Ageing: How To Live For Ever"(84):-report on new/progressive science evidence in age field. For full account of high likelihood of successful research in near future, see Ray Kurzweil & Terry Grossman(op.cit.). Summary of item:"[P]oint at which age turns to ill health and ultimately deathis shifting - i.e. people remaining healthier for longer[,raising] question of how death might be postponed, and whether might be postponed indefinitely... Much [longer living already] result of improved nutrition/ better medicine. But... healthy old age also involves maintaining physical/mental function. Age-related...changes in brain, muscles, joints, immune system, lungs and heart must be minimised - 'senescence'. [E]xercise can help to maintain physical function late in life[, while] exercising brain can limit progression of senescence... Caloric restriction/choice and altering genes...shown promise in slowing senescence. [Various research underway to delay or even reverse senescence.] Low-calorie diet [may be] linked to rate at which cells divide [and] maximum number of times human cell can divide before it dies.[Some] believe only those cells that have stopped dividing cause ageing [and] could demonstrate whether possible toavoid growing old. But successful ageing being promoted here/now. [People with] emotional support not only have higher physical performance than the isolated, but also show lower levels of hormones...associated with stress... "[A]llostatic load"- ...physiological toll...on body - predicts life expectancy well...Elderly people with high degrees of social engagement had lower allostatic loads. [A]lso more likely to bewell educated and have high socio-economic status. Thus appears death can be postponed by various means and healthy ageing extended by others. Whether death will remain ultimate consequence of growing old remains to be seen". Issues needing thought (decisions?) even before widespread rumours of very long-term lives relate to politics, society, finance, employment, science, home, law, religions, etc.

 

The Economist 04 Mar 06"United Nations Peacekeeping: Quality Strained"(42):-brief but truly important report on a globally serious problem that must be given new attention. Essence:"Too few forces, too little oversight". Summary:"Efforts to strengthen beleaguered African Union force in [Darfur/Chad] region, by turning it into a fully-fledged UN blue-helmet mission with twice as many troops (14,000) androbust mandate, take on new urgency. Yet... without more support for UN, a new mission could take its peacekeeping efforts 'past the point of overstretch'. Bad news for sub-Saharan Africa [as] more peopleare being killed in African wars than in all rest of the world. [UN now deploys over 60,000 troops - five times as many as in 1999, or over 85,000 including civilians and police.] But system is now under acute and worsening strain. '[S]trategic reserves' needed so troops can be sent more quickly to trouble spots, and missions under strain can be reinforced faster. Yet NATO/EU/AU peacekeepers now less than half number in 1999 and [UN finds] managing increasingly large and often hybrid operations involving other partners is increasingly tricky. [S]train tells; flaws wrenchingly apparent; UN strategy being published.

 

The Economist 11 Mar 06"China: How the Other 800m Live"(Edit.12); "China: Planning the New Socialist Countryside"(37-8):-official Editorial summary:"China's leaders are aware of the problem in its rural areas. They are terrified of the solution". I rarely have chance/need to report on serious challenge faced/raised by close to billion people. Highlights: "A spectre is haunting China - spectre of rural unrest. Leaders ofCommunist Party know/fear it... National People's Congress [had] plight of country poor at top of agenda.But worrying and curing are very different things. Not just that farmers missed out on double-digitgrowth that transformed urban China.;. real problem is that, in some ways, the lot of the rural poor has got worse. [Nearly] free health care/education...largely collapsed[, while] many farmers lost their livelihoods [when] their land was seized for development with little or no compensation. [Recently,] most violent disturbances have come... from farmers protesting about these depredations. [R]ight of individuals to own agricultural land is [still] tenuous [and] local governments... do not administer it well... Congress approved 15% increase in money earmarked for agricultural development, rural services and the like.But even though... 8.9% of entire budget, [for 800m] the new spending amounts to less than an additional $7 a year each. What more could government do?.. Could introduce proper land rights,.. fund [poorer, more rural] provinces adequately,.. do a lot more to encourage efficient government by provincials/locals... [T]o make officials accountable.,. spectre in China's countryside will not be laid to rest until Chinese leaders accept the need for democracy". Article concludes with additional point that since "some 200m rural Chinese have little or no work, [even] to let them take more productive jobs in urban areas... is onlythe smallest of escape valves in the great political pressure-cooker that is China's troubled countryside".Economist 25 Mar 06"China: How To Make This Country Even Richer"(Edit.11);"A Survey of China: Balancing Act"(1-20):-the clearly sympathetic - if stability-concerned - Survey, and the related Editorial, both emphasize the Chinese government's need - not just its advantage - to give farmers the right to deal as they choose with their land and receipt of other economic benefits. The tone is of giving very realistic and good economic/political advice to one of the century's most important - and rational - powers, thatmust evolve into global challenges and responsibilities. Encouragement by rest of the world is implied.

 

The Economist 11 Mar 06 "Special Report: War Crimes: Bringing the Wicked to the Dock"(20-2):-"[W]ith the spread of international justice, noose is tightening: now accepted there can be no immunity for worst violations of human rights, not even for heads of state. [F]or many, idea that genocide, ethnic cleansing,torture, other such horrors should go unpunished, is increasingly troubling... In 1993, UN's International Criminal for ex-Yugoslavia(ICTY) became first international war-crimes tribunal since Nuremberg and Tokyo trials after WWII. Followed by UN tribunals for Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Cambodia, Timor-Este, Iraq,Afghanistan. Lebanon now asking UN for 'tribunal of international character'... Most conflicts, especially third-world civil ones, are marked by atrocities. Sierra Leone's bloodbath particularly barbaric... African leaders tend to watch each other's backs for fear it could be their own turn next...If [Sierra Leone] Special Court [with UN] gets [Liberia's notorious ex-president], it would be tremendous coup both for it and for international justice. [Court prosecutor:]'We can fight on same side as [nationalism] and neverthelesscommit crimes against humanity'. [This is a model:] two-to one mix of foreign and local judges, ambitious public relations/victim-protection programs, tight timetables, relatively low budget. [Relative advantages over ICTY.] International Criminal Court(ICC) is world's first permanent war-crimes tribunal. Also first not direct UN involvement and has faced strong opposition from US(op.cit). Set up in Hague 2002 alongside ICTY and UN International Court of Justice(disputes between states). To provide fairer, cheaper, more effective way of dealing with most serious violations of international humanitarian law. Reach is limited:cannot prosecute unless accused's country 'genuinely unable or unwilling'to do so. Jurisdiction only over nationals of countries which have ratified its statutes -100 to date- or over those whose crimescommitted in country which has [,unless decision by UNSC. Non-members: US, China, Russia, Zimbabwe, Cuba, Uzbekistan, North Korea, Syria, Belarus, Saudi Arabia. While criticism of tribunals,] others argue ending impunity vital, not only to reduce victims' anger/resentment, ... but also to deter further atrocities.Without justice.,. no sustainable peace. Does deterrence work? Only when potential culprits havereasonable expectation that apprehended/punished... Aimed only at worst culprits, international justiceis at best a blunt instrument [,while]blanket amnesties counter-productive [unless essential for peace]. [Yet] now accepted that, under international law, amnesties can never apply to gross violations of humanitarian law... Reconciliation and punitive justice are both necessary".

 

The Economist 15 Apr 06"Israel and Palestine: Jerusalem: the Key to Peace"(Edit.13); Special Report: "Jerusalem: The Last Conquest"(27-9); "Jerusalem's Holy Places: The Heart of Holy War"(29):-describe/ explain the very serious importance/complexity of city's legal/population/religious status. Editorial's own summary:"Israel partitioning self-declared capital it 'reunited'in 1967".Highlights:"[Until] 67war, armistice line Israel/Jordan ran through Jerusalem, dividing Jewish west from Arab east. After capturing Jerusalem,Israel said reunited city would be its eternal capital. Now,..'security barrier'Israel building...will bisect its own capital[, b]ut... does not follow the old border: it swallows into Israel both new Jewish suburbs Israel built in east Jerusalem after 67 and most of Arab city...If its [final] gates are closed, Arab Jerusalem will then be cut off from its hinterland in the West Bank. Jerusalem both problem/parable[:] Arabs and Jews have found no way either to share or divide it[, and ] religions as well as nationalisms collide. UN's plan of 1947 said city should be internationalised[, b]ut in 1948 Israel and Jordan kept the parts they grabbed. [N]o peace in Palestine until problem of Jerusalem solved. Together with Palestinian refugees, it isrightly called the heart of the conflict...Both Israel and Palestine say cannot live without it. Any operation designed to separate [them] must be exceptionally sensitive/delicate[, and] performed from outset in knowledge complete separation out of question. In Jerusalem, Israel/Palestine doomed to remainperpetually entwined... Israel's policy has been to entrench its control and create facts that cannot be reversed[:] reshaping physical/demographic geography of city, settling Jews on Arab side of pre-67 border, and creating vast Jewish neighbourhoods to north/east/south. [Now] impossible to redivide cityalong pre-67 boundary. But... rest of the world ...says still that Israel's annexation of the city/settlingacross old border, are illegal. [While] Jews formed majority in Jerusalem since late 19th century, [now]declined to about 67%. [Also,] city never been 'reunited'in spirit[:] Palestinian residents...insist on theirfuture as part of independent Palestine... Jews in much of West Bank illegal too[, and] demography hasundone dream of a Greater Israel. [M]ust fall back to shorter borders/independent Palestine arise behind it. But old pre-67 border largely erased[, a]nd chances of negotiating a new one... are remote. HenchIsraelis' next-best thing: unilateral withdrawal to borders of their choosing[,] building security barrier[,]evacuating settlements on far side, hunkering down and hoping for best. [N]o substitute for negotiated peace: Jerusalem shows why. Israel's barrier not just for security. Also a land grab: preferred borders[that] swallow up east Jerusalem but trap on Israeli side hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who will be cut off...from West Bank... Crazy human geography of Jerusalem/West Bank created by missed opportunities on both sides... Clear that by redividing Jerusalem in the way it is about to, Israel making things worse. No peace possible unless city remains accessible... At least Israel must keep its barrieras open as possible. Sealing in/cutting off Palestinians only makes another descent into violence likely".

 

The Economist 15 Apr 06"Women in the Workforce: The Importance of Sex"(Edit.16); "Women and the World Economy: A Guide to Womenomics"(73-4):-both stress major global challenge of the new century.Editorial's summary: "Forget China, India and the internet: economic growth is driven by women". Maj