Ruwantissa I. R. Abeyratne, Aviation Security: Legal and Regulatory Aspects(Brookfield: Ashgate Publishing 98):-a specialized 400-page book would not normally be listed here. However this one thoroughly/expertly covers serious global problem, is best reference work known, and includes proposals for action. So recommended. Blurb states it: "examines offense of unlawful interference with international civil aviation; analyses critically legal/regulatory regime..., recommending...new approach to problem" .Among topics covered: Current Relevant Air Law; Issues Involved: Aircraft Hijacking, Sabotage and Missile Attack; AirportAttacks; Airline Security; Deterrence/Prevention; Legal Issues and Conventions; Drug Air Traffic and Counteraction; ICAO Role; Sovereignty; ICC. ISBN 1-84014-544-7. For more information/purchase: www.ashgate.com. Aviation Trends in the New Millennium

Morton Abramowitz & Thomas Pickering "Making Intervention Work: Improving the UN's Ability to Act"(100-108) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"In the face of grave humanitarian crises in countries such as Myanmar and Sudan, the international community has failed to back up its rhetoric with deeds. To adequately address such situations, the United Nations must streamline its decision-making, strengthen its peacekeeping capabilities, and create a crisis-response force". Emphasized extracts:"International clamor must produce results, not simply more clamor". "The UN needs a limited force to respond to humanitarian disasters and prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control". Abramowitz is a Senior Fellow at the Century Foundation and former US Ambassador to Thailand and Turkey. Pickering is Vice Chair of Hills & Company and has served as US Ambassador to six countries and the UN.

Morton Abramowitz & Henri J.Barkey"Turkey's Transformers: The [Justice and Development Party] AKP Sees Big"(118-128) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6 (Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that Turkey is one of seven rising powers with which US will actively collaborate to resolve global problems. But Turkey has not yet become even the regional player that the ruling AKP declares it to be. Can the AKP do better, or will it be held back by its Islamist past and the conservative inclinations of its core constituents?" Emphasized extracts:"The AKP will live or die by its policies toward the Kurds". "Turkey's new activist diplomacy in the Middle East and beyond may be weakening its ties with US and EU". Abramowitz, a Senior Fellow at Century Foundation, was US Ambassador to Turkey in 1989-91. Barkey is a non-resident Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Professor of International Relations at Lehigh University.

AFRICA: CURRENT PROBLEMS, SOURCES, AND SUGGESTED CURES: MEDIA SELECTION

John Grimond "Africa's Great Black Hope: Survey of South Africa" (1-16); "Africa's Elusive Dawn" (Edit 17-8); "Aid to Africa" (59); "South African Governance: The End of Minority Rule" (Bus.66)The Economist 24 Feb 01:-these four pieces complement each other. Even if two concentrate on South Africa, its leading economic/political roles make it continent's bell-wether - in success or failure. Editorial bitter: "Africa's parlous condition dreadful condemnation of mankind's collective efforts to end poverty and promote freedom...[While]Millennium African Renaissance Programme[made South Africa's president Mbeki call firstfor]'critical examination of Africa's post-independence experience, and acceptance that things have to be done differently'" ,editor chastises rich world for its tariffs, quotas, farm subsidies, unfavourable terms of trade, weapons sales, debt inducement, tied/declining ODA - and for supporting corrupt Africanregimes/prohibitive drug prices. Africa deserves both more support/better leaders. ODA article stressesincreased British interest in helping poorest countries, i.e. mostly African which received about 1b poundsin bilateral/multilateral aid in 99-00. UK will concentrate on getting new technology/skills to students and would-be teachers, on debt relief, on police training and on peacekeeping. Business item notes although,when South Africa's present rulers still rebels threatened to nationalize big business; in power they have brought better corporate governance through greater efficiency and transparency. "Break-up of old conglomerates coincided with attempts to create new class of black businessmen" .Survey's analyses, whileconcentrating on South African economic, social and political situation, have much relevance for whole of Sub-Saharan Africa - and whole Third World. Two over-riding realities are:(1)elimination of very rich, long-entrenched and well-armed racist regime, in refined/orderly way, and without expected bloodbath(in continent only too experienced with ethnic dominations/bloodbaths);but(2) apartheid's replacement by equal or worse horror: AIDS(now threatening all Third World).In addition, relatively high (for Africa)average per capita income disguises "extremes of wealth and poverty rivalled only in Brazil: South Africa really both first world and third world country... Fortunately, long wait for freedom...provided time...to see how other countries coped with self-government. And it brought goodwill, not least because South Africa blessed with leadership of statesman of heroic proportions...Spirit of generosity seemed to characterise not just Mandela but new South Africa as a whole" .Survey discusses: (1)Land (Re)Distribution: with apartheid,white 15% of population effectively owned 87% of land, including all best;(2)Education: takes 21% of budget/5.7% of GNP, but still mixes some of best and worst schools in world;(3)Violent Crime: "threatensnot just South Africans' security but very basis of their society" mainly for socio-historic reasons;(4)HIV/AIDS: "makes most other problems seem trivial" with UNAIDS estimating 4.2m people HIV-positive; life expectancy expected to fall from 60 to 40 years by 08; social custom/ government policy at fault;(5)Racial Equality: affirmative action and "black economic empowerment" encouraged by law, butracial gaps are probably diminishing mainly through constitutional ban on discrimination; (6)Employment and Investment: both face major shortfalls, although policy aims at" growth, employment and redistribution"; "only 40% of economically active population employed in formal" sectors;(7)Justice: made much apparent progress: Constitution aims high, but partly unenforceable; independent Supreme Court; Human Rights Commission against discrimination; novel Truth and Reconciliation Commission provided neither, butoffered "day in court" ;(8)Non-Blacks: about 250,000 whites(officially or unofficially)emigrated since majority rule, but those staying generally do not suffer: Afrikaners have adapted well; Indians have lost economically, and Coloureds complain they are "not black enough" ; Appraisal: is generally good, considering where things started and African comparisons; biggest problems social: continuing dominance of racial concerns and income gaps; catastrophe of AIDS and its socio-economic impact.

Masood Ahmed & Cheryl Gray Helping Countries Combat Corruption: The Role of the World Bank(Washington: IBRD 97):-produced by World Bank's Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network(PREM). Bank's World Development Report 1997: The State in a Changing World(op.cit.)also deals with global corruption issues in government context but mainly descriptively, while PREM reportconcentrates on how Bank can help governments address corruption as serious development constraint. Daniel Kaufmann(op.cit.)lists more articles and books on this issue.

Fouad Ajami"The Ways of Syria: Statis in Damascus"(153-158)Foreign AffairsVol.88/No.3 (May/Jun 09):-Review Essay of Itamar Ravinovich: The View From Damascus: State, Political Community, and Foreign Relations in Twentieth-Century Syria(Vallentine Mitchell 08, 365pp. $49.95). Official summary:"As Washington [and Israel?] consider[s] a rapprochement with Bashar al-Assad's Syria, Itamar Ravinovich's commanding new book makes clear that change will not come quickly or easily - and, if the past is any indication, it may not come at all". Selected emphatic extract:"A big... book of history and diplomacy by the Israeli scholar takes readers deep into the world of the Syrian state - and into that mix of pride and injury that has shaped its modern history. [He] tracks the twists and turns of Syria's political journey in recent decades, its transformation from the plaything of outside powers into a player of consequence in the Levant. No other writer has dug as deep into such material as [author] has in this book, a distillation of a lifetime of concern with the ways of Syria". Ajami: Professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins Univ School of Advanced International Studies and Adjunct Research Fellow at Hoover Institution.

Mark Almond, Europe's Backyard War: The War in the Balkans(London: Heinemann 94):-combination of background information on post-Yugoslav conflicts and military/political conduct to publication date. Highly critical of diplomatic actions of virtually all involved, including most Yugoslav groups, UN and European bodies. Gives prescient warning of ominous precedent set by failure in Balkans.

Philip G. Altbach and Roberta Malee Bassett "The Brain Trade: Prime Numbers" Foreign PolicyNo.144(Sep/Oct 04):-among very influential "globalizing" events today are the growing millions of Third World post-secondary students attending universities in rich Western countries. Many gain access to key ideas of modern society and/or operate in English, so later lives will be influenced by "worldly" visions. Despite new global concerns with terrorism" there is no holding back the flow of students seekingeducation beyond their borders" ;Australia recently estimated the "total number of international students will increase to 8m by 2025." Regarding content," literature and arts take back seat[;] three fields dominate: business/ management, engineering, mathematics/computer sciences." About 80% of world's foreign students are from Asian countries; the following states include universities with 100,000+ enrolled throughdistance education: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey. Leadingreceiver countries(with the rough total of foreign students 2000/01): Australia(70,000), Britain(223,000),France(135,000), Germany(185,000), US(547,000). Since most foreign students pay for their own study/livingexpenses, first two depend on their income to help support public universities. "Many migrants maintainstrong ties from abroad, some eventually return home, and growing numbers of highly educated contribute to their home societies by providing expertise and investment. But loss of significant numbers of best and brightest remains problem for many poorer societies" . It may then be related to expenses that "increasingnumber[of potential foreign student payers is]looking for new options in developing world" ;emergence ofmega-universities in India and China may soon alter balance of 'brain trade'forever.

Lawrence K.Altman "Report Shows AIDS Epidemic Slowdown in 2005"New York Times 30 May 06:- "Newsurveys suggest that global AIDS epidemic has begun to slow, with decline in new HIV infections in about 10 countries, leader of UNAID program said. Outside of those countries,.. number of new AIDS infections continues to rise or hover at its current pace. Meanwhile, public health efforts are reaching only a small proportion of people at risk, Dr.Peter Piot, executive director of UNAIDS, said at news conference in UN NYC ...India has 5.7m infected people and South Africa 5.5m, but India's population far greater. Showing no sign of decline, South Africa has a prevalence rate of about 19% of 47m people.In India, rate is less than 1% of its population of 1.1b. Progress against AIDS in some regions represents dividends from a surge in financing since 2001, when UN pledged its commitment to stem epidemic by 2010. Declaration called for countries to report regularly on their responses to AIDS. This week, UNGAwill receive the progress that 126 countries have said they have made. Report(op.cit.), most comprehensive survey ever compiled from country data, pointed to the 2001 UN meeting as a turning point for AIDS financing. In 2005,.. world spent $8.3b on AIDS, compared with $1.6b in 2001. 'We areseeing the impact', Piot said. He cited increased condom use, a rise in postponement of sexual intercourse and a decrease in number of sex partners as factors in slowing of epidemic. Summarizing report's findings, Piot said '2005 was least bad year in the history of the AIDS epidemic'... Despite thepositive trends, Piot reported grim findings from China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Russia andVietnam(op.cit.), with signs of outbreaks in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Ending the pandemic will depend largely on changing social norms like empowering women, reducing stigma of the disease andencouraging a greater reduction in the number of sex partners, report said. Most countries have strong foundations for building an effective response against AIDS, report said, but systems to carry out plansremain inconsistent. Thoroughness of the individual national reports varied, and many countries did not provide data for all categories... Still, replies identified significant weaknesses, he said. Fewer than 50%of young people achieved comprehensive knowledge levels about HIV, far fewer than the 90% goal. Only9% of gay men and fewer than 20% of intravenous drug users received any kind of HIV prevention help in 2005. Services to prevent HIV infections in infants have not scaled up as rapidly as programs to provide antiretroviral therapy. Just 9% of pregnant women were covered... Report shows that epicenterof the epidemic remains in sub-Saharan Africa. There epidemic has reached peak, but incidence remains unacceptably high, Piot said. Across most of Africa, HIV prevalence among pregnant women attendingclinics has remained roughly level for several years. UN disputed contentions by some observers thatthe leveling off showed a turning point in the AIDS epidemic in Africa... Piot said, 'actual number of people infected continues to rise because of population growth'" ; Lawrence K.Altman "U.N. Urges Tripling of Funds by '08 to Halt AIDS" NYT 01 Jun 06:- "Stopping epidemic of AIDS will require $22b/year by 2008 and possibly more in following years, officials of UNAIDS program said. The $22b is nearly triplethe $8.3b spent 05 by all sources, including governments and private sector. Urging that countries spend more, UNSG Kofi Annan said a costlier and more sustained effort needed because AIDS 'hasspread further, faster and with more catastrophic long-term effects than any other disease'... Of projectedfigure, half is needed for prevention and a quarter for treatment and care of infected people. Remainderis for care of orphans, children at risk of becoming infected and program costs. UNSG and Piot of UNAIDS spoke as UNGA began meeting aimed at renewing political commitment and setting new goals for expenditures and for measuring progress... Annan urged delegates to challenge countries trying to avoid goals that mention gay people, prostitutes, intravenous-drug users and others at high risk of becoming infected. 'Governments concerned need to be realistic and responsible', UNSG said. He also said that 'if we are here to try to end the epidemic, we will not succeed by putting our head in the sandand pretending that these people do not exist or they do not need help'... Report cards showed that most countries missed more goals than they met. More than 20m have become infected since 2001 meeting.Now countries must fundamentally change the way they think and deal with epidemic, moving from crisis management to 'sustained attention and the kind of "anything it takes" resolve that member states apply to preventing global financial meltdowns or wars' , Piot said... Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS released a study showing that private companies have become more likely to provide treatment for employees as cost of antiretroviral drugs has fallen over last six years, to $140-$300/year,from $10,000. In African countries with a high prevalence, more than 70% of companies surveyed arefully subsidizing access to HIV treatment, coalition said. Study...found increasing trend to expand such treatment to employees' dependents. Companies also offering access to voluntary testing/counseling" ; Lawrence K.Altman & Elisabeth Rosenthal "U.N. Strengthens Call for a Global Battle Against AIDS" NYT 02 Jun 06:- "[UNGA] adopted strongly worded declaration [02 Jun] aimed at pressing nations of the worldto strengthen their battle against AIDS, global pandemic [UNSG] called 'greatest challenge of our generation'. Language of document surprised even anti-AIDS groups, which said that while it did not satisfy all their objectives, they had feared it would be watered down... Nonbinding declaration reaffirms commitments made in 01, when UN defined AIDS as far more than a medical issue, framing it in terms of political/human rights/ economic survival... New document is political blueprint, not plan of action.Calls for strong commitment to bolster the rights of women/girls so they can protect themselves from infection with HIV... Declaration calls on countries to: use scientifically documented prevention strategies, including condoms;make clean needles accessible to drug users; take steps to provide universal access to prevention programs/ care/antiretroviral drugs. Includes politically charged terms like 'condoms' /'vulnerable groups' , though those groups not specified... Countries expected to measuretheir progress over next 5 years against targets to be determined by UN... Said world will need to spend up to $23b/year by 2010... Earlier in day, UNSG Annan delivered a gloomy assessment, saying world waslosing the battle. 'The epidemic continues to outpace us' , he told packed UNGA. 'There are more new infections than ever before; more deaths than ever before; more women/girls infected than ever before'... [US' s] Mrs.Bush speech steered away from many of the criticisms that have been labled against administration, notably that it promotes sexual abstinence over scientifically proven strategies,particularly condom use. Indeed, she said, 'ABC'model - initials stand for abstain, be faithful and usecondoms - had brought sharp declines in infections in Africa. Britain's international development[minister] said in interview: abstinence alone did not work ...Dr. Peter Piot [UNAIDS] said: while nodocument could make anyone '100% happy', final version was 'a major advance'and far stronger thanweaker drafts circulating earlier in week" .

Kofi A. Annan, "UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world" .[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]

Kofi A. Annan "Courage To Fulfil Our Responsibilities" The Economist 04 Dec 04(23-5):-UNSG offers global action-urging essay built on his immediate reaction to report of the High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. Following his urgent introduction is a brief summary of Annan's alreadyconcentrated and rearranged version of the panel report's many concerns/proposals. Its value is less to summarize the panel's views than to identify subjects they and/or he discuss. "We face a world of extraordinary challenges - and of extraordinary interconnectedness. We are all vulnerable to new security threats, and to old threats that are evolving in complex and unpredictable ways. Either we allow this array of threats, and our responses to them, to divide us, or we come together to take effective action to meet all of them on basis of a shared commitment to collective security. I asked the 16 members of [panel]- eminent people representing many nations and points of view - to analyse the threats to peaceand security our world faces; to evaluate how well our existing policies and institutions are meeting them; and to recommend changes to those policies and institutions, so as to ensure an effective collective response to those threats. Their report...makes 101 far-sighted but realistic recommendations. If acted on, they would address the security concerns of all states, ensure that UN works better, strengtheninternational rule of law and make all people safer" . First: threats. Event/process leading to deaths on large scale/lessening life chances or undermines states, should be viewed as threat to innatl peace/security.Clusters: economic/social, including poverty/disease; inter-state conflict/rivalry; internal violence: civil war/state collapse/genocide; nuclear/radiological/chemical/ biological weapons; terrorism; innatl crime.Threats interconnected to unprecedented degree; no state alone can defeat. Highly enriched uranium at size of 6 milk cartons could level medium-sized city as nuclear device. Such attack in US/Europe isstaggering cost for world economy. Security of developed states only as strong as ability of poor statesto respond to/contain new deadly infectious disease. Incubation period for most is longer than most air flights, so any one of 700m who travel airlines in year could unwittingly carry lethal virus to unsuspecting state. Today, virus similar to 1918 influenza could kill tens of millions in fraction of a year. In today's worldany threat to one is truly threat to all; applies to all categories of threats. Since real limits on self-protection,all states need collective-security system, committing all to act cooperatively against dangers. Givengravity/interconnectedness of threats, world needs more active prevention. Prevention can be highly effective(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty);WHO helped halt SARS. Best prevention agents: capable states, acting/cooperating with others. Best preventive strategy: is development support. Millennium Development Goals to halve poverty/hunger by 2015 states' best security investment. It will save lives/reduce violentconflict and radicalism/bolster state ability against threats before real harm. HIV/AIDS shows danger ofinadequate prevention. Slow/ineffective global response allowed 20m killed/20 years; spread continues andworst to come. Ultimate cost will include shattered societies. Still not taking all needed steps to bring under control. Also need public-health facilities built in poor world. Not only poorer states benefit diseasetreatment/local prevention; whole world has better defence against bio-terrorism/large-scale naturalepidemics. UNSC should work with WHO to strengthen biological security via prompt, effective responses.Equal: greater environmental collective action, including beyond Kyoto protocol to better resources management in states at risk. Prevention also vital to protect against terrorism. New isrange/scale/intensity of threat(al-Qaeda can kill around world/has struck in 10+ UN members).Could acquire instruments of massive destruction: unprecedented danger. UN must better use assets in fight against terrorists: articulate a strategy respectful of laws/human rights. Definition of terrorism offered: any action intended to kill/seriously harm civilians/non-combatants, with purpose of intimidatingpopulation/compelling action by government/innatl organization. States should use to build consensus andstrengthen UN response to deadly scourge. Also urgent recommendations on non-proliferation/disarmament/curbing supply of materials to reduce risk of nuclear/chemical/biological attacks by states/terrorist groups. States encouraged to end development of domestic uranium enrichmentand urged to voluntary time-limited moratorium on reprocessing plant construction. IAEA ability to monitorcompliance with Non-Proliferation Treaty strengthened by standards in protocol for safeguards inspections. Since Cold War, UN far more engaged in preventing/ending civil wars; ended more through negotiationsince 90 than in previous 200 years; developed expertise/learned hard lessons. As demand for UN blue helmets grows, need to boost peacekeeper supply/avoid 90s worst failures. Rich states should hastenefforts transforming existing forces for UN peace operations. UN must invest in mediation/support peace agreement implementation. Demobilize combatants/reintegrate into civil life; otherwise civil wars not successfully ended/other goals(democracy/justice/ development)remain unmet. Often innatl community lost focus if crisis high point past/peacekeepers left. Propose UNSC create Peacekeeping Commission; to givestrategic focus for work in states under stress/emerging from conflict. If prevention/peaceful resolution fails, UN must be able to rely on force. Whatever reason: all states/UNSC should bear in mind basic guidelines/questions: (1)Seriousness of threat: does it justify force?(2)Proper purpose: does proposed force halt/avert threat?(3)Last resort: all non-military options explored/exhausted? (4) Proportional means: force proposed minimum necessary?(5)Balance of consequences: clear action not worse than inaction? No need to amend Art.51 of UN Charter: any state's right of self-defence against armed attack/pre-emptive action against imminent threat. However if states fear threats, neither imminent nor proximate, but which could culminate in horrific violence if left to fester, UNSC already powered to act/must be prepared to take action earlier than past, when asked/reliable evidence. Protection of civilians inside states long fraught with controversy. Yet recognized more widely that question better framed, not as intervene-right but protection-responsibility - borne first/foremost by states. Panel agreed principle of non-intervention in internal affairs cannot protect committing genocide/large-scale ethnic cleansing/othercomparable atrocities. I hope UN members agree/UNSC will act. UN(now nearly 60)born in very different time/world, so has under-appreciated record of adapting to new dangers, e.g. peacekeeping in world's civil wars/response to attack of Sep 01. Clearly needs far-reaching reform to prevent/respond to all current threats. Some propose via-UN collective response too difficult/not necessary. But all anti-threat actions impact beyond immediate context/all states benefit from shared global framework. Not mean UN needs to do everything. It must learn of share burdens/welcome help from others/work with them. Already does so; report recommends strengthened UN partnerships with regional organs/individual states. Great attention: UNSC reform. Objectives: make UNSC more effective/authoritative. Permanent membership devised(1945)to ensure active engagement of big powers to maintain peace/security. New permanent members matter of controversy/debate. Two suggestions, both expanding membership to 24; aim at: add those who contribute most to UN financially/militarily/diplomatically; ensure UNSC represents UN as whole;not expand veto, which would render decisions more difficult. Proposals offer chance breakthrough in year ahead. If acted on, UNSC more representative/better equipped for decisive action. Need strengthened UN secretariat that can support Peacebuilding Commission; implement UNSC/ committee decisions better on peacekeeping/mediating civil wars. Report envisages more concerted-action secretariat, with UNSGmore responsible for management/accountability. Equally important: ECOSOC overhaul to strengthen role in social development/improving knowledge on economic-social dimensions of security threats. Also, recommends Human Rights Commission better defender of rights of all. After 60 years, once again findworld mired in disillusionment and all too imperfect. Easy to stand at sidelines and criticise/talk endlessly about UN reform, but world no longer has that luxury. Time to adapt collective security system so it works efficiently/effectively/ equitably. Next year UN states reviewing progress on Millennium Declaration; world leaders' summit in Sep. Appropriate moment to act on some of most important recommendations in report.I will indicate which call for decisions at that level. Fervently hope world leaders will rise to challenge. Have all lived through period of deep division and sombre reflection. Must make 05 year of bold decision; all share responsibility for each other's security. Let's summon courage to fulfil responsibility." Complete text of "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility" Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change, plus initial comments by requester/addressee, UNSG Kofi Annan, can be read and even copied(99pp Acrobat Reader)from Secretary General's part of UN file (www.un.org). Executive Summary(8pp Acrobat)also available at same address. Capturing the 21st Century Security: Prospects for Collective Responses(Oct 04)collects reports from six Stanley Foundation conferences in 04 that dealt with UNSG panel. Report at http://reports.stanleyfoundation.org. Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: Reforming the United Nations" 01 Dec 04:-originally available either by NYT>CFR>International>[title] or via CFR directly. This is expert interview with Lee Feinstein who" has spearheaded Council work on the United Nations" and studied important UN report and its UNGA prospects.

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266).

Associated Press, "Number of Refugees Grows Worldwide" New York Times 13 Jun 00:-World Refugee Survey 2000, issued by prestigious US Committee for Refugees, claims that at end of 20th Century there were35m people worldwide "uprooted and in need of protection." Conflict contributed 7m to this in 99 alone, and despite UN success in ending some long-term disputes following end of Cold War, this estimated total had risen from 29m in 90. Moreover, of these, 13.7m are found in Africa(4.4m in Sudan alone).Another trend has been continually growing number of refugees that for various reasons remain in their own countries:Internally Displaced Persons. Identified IDPs now number at least 4m, and clearly demand higher priority from UN-UNHCR since they are not afforded same legal protections and care as" international" refugeesunder Geneva Conventions. On other hand, there is hope that some sources of refugees and IDPs may bein sight of permanent solution. Elizabeth Rosenthal, "Famine in North Korea Creates Steady Human Flow into China" NYT 10 Jun:-report on motives and stratagems of North Korean refugees within/outside their country. Any moves towards Korean reconciliation could have major and rapid effect on this crisis. For evenlonger-term look at issue of unwilling migration, AP reports "Conference Addresses Migration" NYT 10 Jun:-experts Paris meeting organized by Universal Academy of Cultures concluded "globalization demands greater moral responsibility and intervening in sovereign nations is plausible response to misery that drives populations beyond their borders." Those seeking political asylum increased from 250,000 in 87 to 900,000 in 92, but then declined to 388,000 in 98,perhaps reflecting growing influence of such perceptionin UN. Meanwhile, if Europe's population falls 100m by 50, migration waves may become beneficial.

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .

Associated Press "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"New York Times 16 Nov 05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader, and terrorism is flaring upall over the region. But at US' s major Asian outposts, some serious downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its32,500-strong force in Korea over next 3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand overmajor elements of troops' mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000US troops are stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa... Ananalyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea in line with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops. Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing... Under new accord... Japan will defend itself, deal with such threats as ballistic missilesand commando attacks and invasion of its own islands. US will deploy latest missile defense radar".

Associated Press"EU Agency: Gypsies Suffer Discrimination"New York Times 07 Apr 06:-"Gypsies[henceforth Roma] remain among Europe's most discriminated-against people, European Union's racism watchdog agency said [07 Apr]... Roma routinely denied jobs/ housing/education/health care, saidVienna-based EU Monitoring Center on Racism and Xenophobia. Center's director... said Roma living in many of EU's 25 member states suffer 'systematic discrimination', and called for more intensive effort/greater political will to eliminate the bias and help lift Roma communities out of poverty. Estimated 6.2m Roma live in Europe - 4.6m in central/eastern Europe - according to estimates by UN-affiliatedInternational Organization for Migration. Last year... EU monitoring center said unemployment ran as high as 90% among Roma in some new EU members such as Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, and that worst discrimination happened when Roma tried to rent/buy property. ['T]erritorial segregationis particularly acute', report said. Roma also tended to receive substandard medical care... A globalconference of Prague-based International Romani Union - coalition of organizations working to easethe plight of Roma - designated 08 Apr as International Day of Roma in 1990"

Associated Press"Maritime Authorities OK Tracking Measure"New York Times 19 May 06:-"Maritime authorities have agreed upon new legislation that will allow for long-range tracking of merchant ships - a key measure in tackling the threat of seaborne terrorist attacks, the UN International Maritime Organization said [19 May]. A total of 166 countries have agreed to the new rules for merchant vessels, which would also allow countries to conduct surveillance on vessels suspected of carrying illicit cargo.Organization said signatory governments had provisionally agreed to the changes in the Safety of Life at Sea convention... 'Ships will be required to transmit their identity, location and date and time of theirposition to be tracked by satellite', said UN shipping agency's external relations officer... New legislation will mean a ship's position can be identified up to 1,000 nautical miles from shore. Current systems arelimited to a range of a few hundred nautical miles... Merchant vessels trading in international waters willneed to switch to new long-range system by Jan 08, offering maritime authorities a system similar tothat used by air traffic controllers";

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Associated Press "China to Continue Modernizing Military" New York Times 29 Dec 06:- "China said it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it wascommitted to the peaceful development of the world's largest army. A report issued by the State Council,China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons. 'China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country', the 91-page white paper said. 'China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability'. The communist nation's 2.3m-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup. Its reported 2006 budget is $35b, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher... One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan... It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits. China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal withsubmarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons. 'The struggle to oppose and contain theseparatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one', the report said. Itindirectly criticized US for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the 'one-China'policy, 'but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan'. Washingtonswitched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack. [Report] highlighted what it said was 'growing complexities in Asia-Pacific security environment'.[It] said China 'remains firmly committed to the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances' . All this taking place with backdrop of North Korea's first nuclear test,uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and continued turbulence in Mideast, it said".

Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3(May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.

Deborah Avant "THINK AGAIN: Mercenaries" Foreign Policy No.143(Jul/Aug 04):-a correction of ten public (mis)concepts about the current activities and value of (mainly US-employed) PRIVATE SECURITY FIRMS vs (traditional) MERCENARIES. (See also Sarah V.Percy op.cit.) Avant first offers widely-believed view about such firms ("Quoted/Under-lined Phrases"); then states a FIRM ONE/TWO-WORD REACTION; then says at length her views of the actual truth. "Private Security Companies Are Mercenaries" -NO. "'Mercenary'describes wide variety of military activities, many of which bear little resemblance to those of today's...corporate endeavours that perform logistics support, training, security, intelligence work, risk analysis, and much more" ."The Bush Administration Has Dramatically Expanded Use of Military Contractors" -WRONG. "US ramped up military outsourcing during 1990s, after end of Cold War brought reductions in force size and numerous ethnic and regional conflicts emerged requiring intervention" ."Contractors Don't Engage in Combat or Other Essential Military Tasks" -FALSE. "Although... Rumsfeld said Pentagon would outsource all but core military tasks, these tasks are changing, and military contractors perform many of them. Contractors have technical expertise to support increasingly complex weapons systems [and intelligence services for war on terrorism]". "Military Contractors Are Cheaper than Regular Soldiers" -PROVE IT. "Two conditions must be present for private sector to deliver services more efficiently than government: competitive market and contractor flexibility in fulfilling their obligations. [G]overnments frequently curtail competition to preserve reliability and continuity [and] impose conditions that reduce contractors' flexibility" . "Contractors Are Accountable to No One" -AN EXAGGERATION. "Many governments regulate security contractors to greater or lesser degrees ... Contractors are accountable to range of employers and respond most effectively to market incentives... Use of contractors to avoid governmental accountability is more worrisome. "Contractors Value Profits More than Peace" -NOT ALWAYS. "Although many critics argue that military contractors have economic interest in prolonging conflict rather than reducing it, employees of private military companies rarely have been accused of aggravating conflict intentionally to keep profits flowing". "Contractors Operate Outside the Law" -FREQUENTLY "Legal status of contractors varies considerably. Sometimes they are subject to laws of territory in which they operate and other times to those of their home territory, but too often distinction is unclear... Status of contractors is even more contentious under international law. Most... activity falls outside purview of 1989 UN Convention on Mercenaries" . "Only Governments Hire Private Security Companies" -WRONG. "Security contractors work for governments, transnational corporations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Oil, diamond, and other extractive industries hire contractors to guard their facilities, and UN and NGOs employ convoy guards. In Iraq, nearly every foreign entity... requires private security". "UN Should Outsource Peacekeeping to Private Contractors" -NO. "Those who advocate that UN hire private contractors are not looking to replace UN peacekeeping forces. Rather, they hope to make them more flexible and easier to use... Outsourced peacekeeping is... unlikely. UNSC and UNGA have been reluctant to consider it because of weak governments' concern that private security forces could be used against them". "Private Military Contractors Undermine State Power" -NOT ALWAYS. "Contractors undermine states' collective monopoly on violence. Fact that US, Britain, Australia and UN hire private security makes it hard for nations that oppose military contracting to restrict security firms based in their country" . For another excellent (different) description of current use of mercenaries, see The Economist 04 Nov 06"Mercenaries: Blood and Treasure" (70-1) :-Highlight is: "In recent decades, mercenaries... pushed to the wilder edges of global conflict: the 'dogs of war' who fight nasty little campaigns in Africa. But for a new kind of soldier of fortune, the fighting in Iraq has proved to be a pot of gold". Item's own summary:"After the windfall of Iraq, where is the next fortune to be found?".

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):- former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts a MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should be your first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Gerald L. Bailes,"Fear of Flying"Foreign Policy Vol.76/No.3(May/Jun 1997):-a full 40% of world trade and persons crossing borders travel by air. Yet the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) does not constitute an international regime to govern air transportation and replace the 1200 bilateral agreements in the same manner that the WTO standardizes the trade in goods and services. The essay puts forward aproposal for the global deregulation of air services through the WTO, as well as other suggestions.

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Ben Barber,"Feeding Refugees, or War? The Dilemma of Humanitarian Aid"Foreign Affairs Vol.76/No.4 (Jul/Aug 1997):-article describes the standard techniques used increasingly by combatants to exploit refugees for cover and to obtain aid supplies. The author recommends: disarming camps; careful siting of refugees; aid distribution by selected agency and recipient; barring aid from interested parties; full information on conditions/events.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Warren Bass "The Triage of Dayton" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.5(Sep/Oct 98):-highly critical account of US/UN actions and inactions relating to 95 Dayton Accords on Bosnia.(Full account of negotiations: Holbrooke op.cit.)Seems to take it as given that" Serbs"and they alone committed both aggression and ethnic cleansing, and hence required punishment, not mediation. Argued that early "lift and strike" policy by US against Serbs(regardless of UN ground forces' vulnerability as decided by UNSC)could have let US(sic) "stay true to its avowed ideals of multiethnic tolerance, liberal democracy and reversing aggression." [Neither Bass nor international community appear to have solution to ethnic dislocation.]

William Bauer"Refugees, Victims or Killers: the New Slave Trade?"International Journal (677-94)Vol.LII/No.4 (Autumn 97):-a powerful report on the exploitation of desperate would-be immigrants to rich countries, particularly by smuggling or misusing refugee claims. There is much evidence of appalling physical conditions en route, as well as of exploitation by profiteers after arrival. In same issue(575-80), Daniel Stoffman, "Making Room for Real Refugees" ,argues that bogus refugee claimants are unusually numerous in Canada because of the country's reportedly over-generous adjudication system.

Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis & Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa (Oxford:James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamentingdemography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/violence).While driven by change, these African reactions show historicalinfluence of approving accumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thusnationalism, government and law are simply used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.

Barbara Beck "The Economics of Ageing: The Luxury of Longer Life" The Economist 27 Jan 96(Survey 1-16):-longer average lifespans worldwide are raising global, and not simply national, problems in fields like economics and finance, travel and migration, medicine and health care, social and cultural change, and even moral standards.

Elizabeth Becker "Number of Hungry Rising, U.N. Says" New York Times 08 Dec 04:-UN agency Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO)makes ominous report: for first time in almost decade, estimated number in the world going hungry has increased. Despite overall increase in global wealth, FAO states, after slow/steady decrease, chronically hungry rose to nearly 852m(18m increase since 00); 5m children aredying of hunger annually. FAO senior claimed world now producing more than enough food, so problemis access to jobs/resources/land/money to buy food. UN's International Labor Organization(ILO)reported that record 1.4b(half world's workers)earn less than $2 daily. Oxfam reported that global aid budgets now total half of level in 60. Yet UN's Millennium Development Goals, pledged by all the world's governments, set targets to halve extreme poverty/hunger by 15." At least 80% of world's chronically hungry live in rural areas and over half...subsistence farmers. Competition from world's wealthiest farmers, heavilysubsidized by rich governments,...blamed in part for the inequity. Trade ministers have promised to continueworking to reduce agricultural subsidies/supports at global trade talks next year[WTO].In measuring hunger [FAO]considers calorie intake/amount of food available/inequities in access to food supplies. Thirtycountries [Asia/ Africa/Latin America]cut percentage of hungry people at least 25% over last decade byreducing conflict/focusing ...programs on rural areas/small farmers.[This is fundamentally critical, since]children under three most vulnerable to disease/death. Without proper nutrition, it is difficult for these children to ever recover/lead productive lives."

Richard K. Betts, "The New Politics of Intelligence: Will Reforms Work This Time?" Foreign AffairsVol.83/No.3(May/ Jun 04):-while relates to optimal improvements to US top-level intelligence use, much of discussion/advice relevant to relationship between policy-makers and intelligence-commanders in any country. "Danger stems from gap between urge to do something and uncertainty about just whatsomething could be...At end of day, strongest defense against intelligence mistakes will come less from any structural or procedural tweak than from good sense, good character, and good mental habits of senior officials" .Not mentioned in FA, but relevant to both intelligence and diplomatic/defense/securitystaff effectiveness is ability to speak relevant foreign languages. The Economist 15 May 04 "ARABIC: Speak Up" (56):-how British and other governments need to ensure sufficient national facilities to train civil servants/university students that need special language ability. Economist 17 Jul 04 "Sincere Deceivers" (Edit.11-2)and "Intelligence Failures: The Weapons That Weren't" (23-5):-both US and British governments analysed positions of intelligence forces in giving President Bush and PM Blair respectivelyreports that made their bosses announce need to attack Iraq because it constituted regime both able to use/pass to terrorists weapons of mass destruction(WMD)and, in case of Bush, willing to support attacks by al-Qaeda. Both governments' reports criticize their intelligence forces as hinting more positive threats than should have been derived from their information, influenced by views/desires of heads of government. But US system considerably worse in this respect. Gives full information about two analyses and comments on politically inclined intelligence, and mentions future effects. Efraim Halevy "In Defence of the Intelligence Services" Economist 31 Jul 04(By Invite 21-3):-author was head 98-02 of Mossad, Israel's intelligence service. Essence of well-written thesis: "Committees of inquiry into US and British intelligence failures may have left West less secure." Basic critique is that of professional intelligence officer, and views are of expertise/relevance. However, one does get background implied of support for attack on Iraq, even if intelligence is ambiguous - an Israeli need? Economist 07 Aug 04 "New Non-Fiction: The al-Qaeda Code" (69):-favourable review of famous government document published as book 567pp long: The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (Norton). Something to be emulated by all future government reports. Economist 14 Aug 04 "The CIA: The Right Man?" (26):-short item regarding politically hot issue in US. Criticism of intelligence produced recently by CIA resulted in: (1) criticism of CIA director who also had acted as coordinating national head of all US intelligence groups; (2)resignation of CIA director in reaction to criticism. President Bush has nominatedCongressman Porter Goss as friend and experienced eight-term Republican, once CIA agent and recently chairman of House Intelligence Committee. Already controversy over Goss' appropriateness, although Bush agreed coordination of all US intelligence services will in future be carried out by another, new, separate position. Economist 28 Aug "The CIA: For the Scrap-Heap?" (28):-another short item reports on proposal of Pat Roberts, Republican chairman of Senate Intelligence Committee. He recommended new National Intelligence Service "run by hugely powerful director, backed by four assistant directors, each responsible for different phase of intelligence process. CIA would be dismantled, and its departments assigned to relevant assistant director. Control over other intelligence agencies would be wrested from Defence Department and FBI." Many experts claim proposals are wrong; some prefer more: diverse recruits, work with foreign agencies, and human intelligence-gathering.

Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions...increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus]other extreme/ increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainablemanufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force]is good news, but... change/ ambition required will be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/global policy must encourage development/commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigate effects of climate change...G8 can take global lead both inmaking world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8[also]opportunity to agree onwhat most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively withother countries' growing energy needs...to ensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seem inevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad.[Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto take root and spread[to globe.]Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests[while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense ofhopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playingincreasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth.[This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progresswe need...coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but theirmain texts/distributions differ.

Christopher S.Bond & Lewis M.Simons "The Forgotten Front:Winning Hearts and Minds in Southeast Asia"(52-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.6(Nov/Dec 09):-official summary:"US [Western?] policymakers can no longer afford to ignore Southeast Asia. Islamic militants pose a threat to stability in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. But rather than relying on miltary power alone to do the job, US should use trade, aid, and education to alleviate poverty in the region and win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asian Muslims". Bond is a Republican Senator from Missouri. Simons s a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. They are the co-authors of The Next Front: Southeast Asia and the Road to Global Peace With Islam.

Max Boot"Pirates, Then and Now: How Piracy Was Defeated in the Past and Can Be Again"(94-107)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.4 (Jul/Aug 09):-official summary:"Piracy was rampant for centuries past - just as it is again today off the coast of East Africa. To combat present-day marauders, governments should look to the tactics used to defeat piracy in the past: a more active defense at sea and the pursuit of a political solution onshore". Emphasized extracts: "Nations such as England and France had looked on piracy as either a minor nuisance or, when directed against their enemies, a potentially useful tactic". "Oftentimes, rooting out pirates meant risking not only an international incident but also full-scale war". "The problem is twofold: a lack of legal authority and a lack of will to enforce what authority does exist". "[Q]uestion of how to try and process pirates closely related to problem of how to deal with terrorists". Boot:Jeane J.Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at Council on Foreign Relations; author of The Savage Wars of Peace: Small Wars and the Rise of [US] Power and War Made New Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History, 1500 to Today. Currently writing a history of guerrilla warfare.

Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/ No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.

Boutros Boutros-Ghali, "A New Departure on Development" Foreign Policy, 98(Spring 95):-after brief history of North-South confrontation in the UN, Secretary-General argues that cooperation is now essential for both rich and poor, given their common interests in the environment and migration. Obviously related to 1993 "Agenda for Development" .

Charles G. Boyd "Making Bosnia Work" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.1(Jan/Feb 98):-international community's greatest problem, years after Dayton Accord: how to achieve aim of creating unified Bosnia. After intense local investigation, concludes this impossible for foreseeable future, and only solution is de facto partition, with security and economic aid provided to all groups, continuing foreign presence, and long healing period.Letters Vol.77/No.3(May/Jun 98):offer some counter-arguments.[My own inclination is to agree, and give up trying to create traditional sovereign state where one has never existed before and at time when feelings are so intense. Emphasis should be on down-grading significance of any borders in area and increasing economic modernization/integration of Balkans so ethnicity becomes "private" matter(again)while all benefit from working together.]

Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun 06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will lastfor decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another [major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".

Keith Bradsher "Taiwan's Bullet Trains Can't Outrun Controversy" New York Times 28 Dec 06:- "The sleet,bulbous-nosed new bullet trains look like they are designed to whisk passengers across wide-open spaces. But on congested island, they represent the start of a 180-mile-per-hour commuter train system.After quarter century of planning and construction, system scheduled to open 05 Jan 07. Will tie together cities/towns where 94% Taiwan lives, offering alternative to clogged highways and the air pollution vehicles produce. For some urban planners/environmentalists, project is example of how Asia may... control oil imports, curb fast-rising emissions of global-warming gases and bring higher standard of living to enormous numbers of people in environmentally sustainable way. Passengers who travel on fully loaded train will use only sixth of energy they would use if they drove alone in a car and willrelease only one-ninth as much carbon dioxide... Compared with bus ride, figures are half the energyand a quarter of carbon dioxide, train system officials said. But system's enormous cost - $15b... - madeit a subject of dispute... Using overhead electric lines,... trains will run from Taipei down through western Taiwan to Kaohsiung, the main industrial city in south,.. distance of 215 miles... System will start with 19 trains in each direction daily and eventually handle 88... Most trains will make six intermediate stops, lengthening travel time [from 90 minutes] to 2hours-7mins... The high-speed trains travel almost entirely on specially built, 60-foot-tall viaducts to avoid need to cross roads... Whether train system becomes commercial success will partly depend on how many people use its somewhatinconveniently-located [new] stations, how quickly the land is developed around these stations and how much tickets cost" . Associated Press "Taiwan High - Speed Rail System to Debut" NYT 04 Jan 07:- "Taiwan's long-delayed high-speed rail system geared up... to welcome its first paying passengers amid lingering safety concerns and embarrassing ticketing glitches. [L]imited service 05 Jan 07 will cut rail travel time between Taipei and Kaohsiung from 4 hours to 90 mins. [I]t represents colossal effort toimprove transportation for Taiwan's 23m people, while saving energy/preserving environment. [P]roblems that dogged it for more than a decade still apparent. [A]ngry ticket buyers complaining about being unable to use credit cards, or receiving wrong change from ticket machines... When full servicebegins, four domestic airlines expected main casualty [as] vast majority [within] 2 hours from Taipei".

Christopher Bright"Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization"Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 99) :-summarizes Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton & Co. 98). Bright claims: "World trade has become the primary driver of one of the most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of foreign, invasive species are hitch-hiking through the global trading network aboard ships, planes, and railroad cars...This' biological pollution'is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions" (50). Counter-policies largely ineffective, control mechanisms(UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes the situation ever worse. Bright offersmuch information: animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda:control ballast release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).

Joel Brinkley"Cambodia's Curse: Struggling to Shed the Khmer Rouge's Legacy" (111-122) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):- official summary: "Thirty years after the fall of Khmer Rouge, much of Cambodia remains mired in memories of the country's sorrowful past. Meanwhile, the rest of the world, whose perception is also skewed, barely seems to notice that the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen is destroying the nation". Emphasized extracts:"Much of Cambodia, and the world, is still mired in the bloody legacy of the Khmer Rouge". "Hun Sen's government has been looting natural resources, jailing political opponents, evicting thousands from their homes, and fostering corruption". Brinkley, former FA Corespondent for New York Times, is Professor of Journalism at Stanford Univ. Research carried out in Cambodia Aug 08.

Simon Briscoe & Hugh Aldersey-Williams Panicology :Subtitle on Book Cover Only: What Are You Afraid Of? Two Statisticians Explain What's Worth Worrying About (and What's Not) in the 21st Century (London: Viking 08):-after a brief Introduction, the 300-page book offers essays on 42 specialized subjects in hopefully objective terms and the most up-to-date statistics. Each essay is inclined to lampoon deliberately-scary headlines that were inclined to raise excessive worries on the subject. My main/chronic criticism is that many essays apply solely to the UK situation or primarily to the West, whereas most issues are clearly of global concern - and are studied globally by UN (multiple UN summaries op. cit.). The chapter titles are followed by my own subjects of the relevant essays. (1) Sex, Marriage and Children: Population Issues; Family Units and Children; Getting Married; Sexual Attitudes. (2) Health: Obesity; Salt Consumption; Bird Flu; Hospital-Acquired Infections; Kids' Triple Vaccines; Sudden Infant Death Syndromes. (3) Passing the Time: Accidents from Physical Art; Heavy Drinking of Alcohol; Cinema Admissions; Collection of Sports Cards. (4) Social Policy: Pensions; Household Debts; House Prices; Immigration; Deaths Through Transport; Accidents Through Mobile Phones; (5) The Workplace: Globalization's Effects on Employment; Women's Pay; Work-Related Stress; Repetitive Strain Injury; (6) Law and Order: Terrorist Threats; Military Threats; Numbers in Prison; Crime Figures; (7) Natural World: Ozone Depletion; Hurricanes; Climate Change; Sea-Level Rise; Earthquakes and Volcanos; New Ice Age? (8) Our Declining Resources: Extinctions; Fisheries Issues; Languages. (9) Modern Science: Genetically Modified Food; Nanotechnology; Nuclear Radiation. (10) They're Coming to Get You: UFO Reports; Asteroids.

Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2 (Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier(World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.

L.Anathea Brooks & Stacy D.VanDeveer edit. Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park: Maryland Sea Grant 1997):-although focused on environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, book is not technical for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes broad/thoughtful look at every major aspect of environmentalism, using coastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, Nature (environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases); Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge (scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and Institutions(changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics);Approaching Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.

Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).

Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point; Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry; Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses); 5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts; Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise; Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8. Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well (Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Proteir More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain; Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy; Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy: 2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).

John Browne, "Beyond Kyoto" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-substantial, sympathetic, expert arguments by BP executive that, as 1997 treaty now blocked, its vital action be updated. "Kyoto Protocolis coming unraveled. Despite nearly a decade of effort, it may not even enter into force as a binding instrument...Canada, Japan, and European Union...are not on track to meet their commitments[and US haswithdrawn entirely.]...Clear-eyed realism is essential. But display...is mistaken reaction. There is scope for different and more positive view...First, it has become obvious that Kyoto was simply starting point of very long [progressing] endeavour. Second, we have improved, if still imperfect, knowledge of challengesand uncertainties climate change presents, as well as better understanding of time scales involved. Third,many countries and companies have had experience reducing emissions and have proved that suchreductions can be achieved without destroying competitiveness or jobs. Fourth, science and technologyhave advanced on multiple fronts...Finally, public awareness of issue has grown - not just in developed world but all around the globe. [It] is becoming clear that reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is soluble problem, and that mechanisms for delivering solutions are within reach. In that spirit of cautious optimism, it is time to move beyond current Kyoto debate." Bulk of text amplifies each of five points.

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Robert Buckman, Can We Be Good Without God? An Exploration of Behaviour, Belonging and the Need to Believe (Toronto: Penguin 01):-while author both medical doctor/atheist, not designed to criticize religionor to scientifically support atheism. One major concern: religions generate specific/competinginterpretations of "goodness" , developing critical link between "good and god." Also offers perspective "onconnection between behaviour and belief - connection between ethics and religion." Such diversified convictions held by each faithful group have produced unrealistic and unjust frictions. "The world will be better place if we all believe whatever we wish, but behave as if there is no deity to sort out humankind's problems." Global issues described may indeed become worse or easier.

Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50).

Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Bin Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him".

Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/ famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. The lure of the West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70 optional pages of the item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

Mayra Buvinic and Andrew R. Morrison "Living in a More Violent World" Foreign Policy No.118(Spring 2000):-valuable survey of steeply rising global rate of combat-unrelated violence, its probable causes, likely trends, economic and social costs, and possible control policies. Average global homicide rates, naturally the most complete, and derived from a 34-country sample over various regions, rose from5.82/100,000 in 1980-84 to 8.86/100,000 in 1990-94, a more than 50% increase in a decade(OECD:15%; Latin America:80%; Arab world:112%). Limited victimization (assaults/threats)trends seem similar. Moreover rate of increase appears to be accelerating: latest rates include Latin America 23/100,000; sub-Saharan Africa 40/100,000, with Johannesburg 115/100,000. Causes include: aggressive cultures orupbringing; ineffective justice systems; high ratio in LDCs of persons 18-24(group most inclined to violence)perpetuated by reduced social inhibitions; high population density, anonymity, poverty and urban social disintegration; greater(awareness of)national/local income inequalities through globalization;media emphasis on violence or at least aggression; the increased quantity and availability of drugs and guns. Costs include: significantly lower economic growth through foregone investment, less tourism, reduced productivity, higher security/medical expenses. Policies include: prevention programs throughbetter and focused social care/policing/education, urban regeneration, handgun and alcohol controls. Above all, local initiatives.

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). Clearly, as significance of physical distance diminishes, reasons to physically travel at all - other than for pleasure - will also diminish. Migration to find employment or higher living standards will reportedly becomeless necessary/ advantageous. Even going to work will be useless in many jobs; all can be done at home.Travel to receive/give almost any form of information/education, or to make contracts(including daily shopping/business)can also be eliminated. In short, more and more, "movement" is optional.

Frances Cairncross, "A Survey of Pay: The Best...and the Rest" The Economist 08 May 99(1-20):-with concern over inflated executive incomes and increasing domestic pay divergence, the Survey not only finds many causes, but also basic changes in the way pay is determined. While most is still set by local markets,global communications/ MNCs are creating global rates. English'global role(hence universal premium)and the ecu's creation break down national(pay)boundaries. Within firms, the need to move top staff or let some work online from places of choice, combined with functional organization (paying staff by role not location), all tend towards global rates. Also, with more jobs now being education- and initiative-intensive,top human capital is in high demand, forcing relative pay increases, plus diverse and variable reward systems(stock options/bonuses)to meet competition and encourage motivation, loyalty, flexibility. More inequality lies ahead.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/FP Special Report"China Rising: How the Asian Colossus Is Changing Our World" Foreign Policy No.146(Jan/Feb 05):-in fall 04, Carnegie "convened some of world's leading thinkers on China to take stock of political/economic consequences of country's rapid ascent [www.CarnegieEndowment.org/ChinaProgram]. FP asked seven of these experts to weigh in on implications of Middle Kingdom's return to greatness". Jonathan D.Spence"The Once And Future China":-investigates: What of China's past could be a harbinger for its future? Concludes "These are the memories and the territorial histories [including Taiwan] that China has to juggle as it embarks on its myriad new challenges and opportunities". Zbigniew Brzezinski & John J.Mearsheimer engage in Debate on"Clash of the Titans":-Is China more interested in money than missiles? Will US seek to contain China as it once contained Soviet Union? ZB and JM go head-to-head on whether these two great powers are destined to fight it out. Titles of thoughtful sequence: ZB: Make Money, Not War. JM: Better to Be Godzilla than Bambi; i.e.powerful China is likely to try to push US out of Asia. ZB: Nukes Change Everything. JM: Showing the US the Door. ZB: US's Staying Power. JM: It's Not a Pretty Picture. Martin Wolf"Why Is China Growing so Slowly? :-For all its success, China is still not living up to its potential."Do not think China's rapid growth is either extraordinary or a flash in the pan. It is neither. Social and political obstacles to China's rapid growth are considerable. But the opportunity remains enormous. China's economic boom could well be in its middle, not its end." Ashley J.Tellis"A Grand Chessboard" :-Beijing seeks to reassure the world that it isgentle giant; it knows that US is casting a wary eye in its direction."Strategy of emphasizing peaceful ascendancy in word and deed will likely satisfy Chinese interests until it becomes a true rival of US." Homi Kharas"Lifting All Boats":-Why China's great leap is good for the world's poor. China has become the center of a virtuous regional trade cycle."For the developing world, it's something to emulate, not fear." Minx Pei "Dangerous Denials":-China's economy is blinding the world to its political risks. "The only thing certain about China's... risks is that they are on the rise." The Economist"China: No Sign of a Landing"29 Jan 05(39-40):-supports FP views by emphasizing that "China... continues to grow at breakneck speed". National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had declared that economy grew by 9.5% in 2004,"its fastest clip in eight years", and probably an accurate or low figure for a change. NBS in fact "put a brave face on the figure, attributing quickened pace of growth... to stronger than expected performances in agriculture and services - the parts of economy China still wants to boost... Encouragingly, government's cooling measures... do not appear to have affected consumer spending. Growth of retail sales of consumer goods remained strong during the year...This offers some hope investment can be curbed without a sharp slowdown... First results from the census are due in August, and complete data by the middle of next year. Whatever they reveal, it is unlikely to be that China has been wildly overstating its GDP growth figures". Jim Yardley "Fearing Future, China Starts to Give Girls Their Due"New York Times 31 Jan 05:-reports on an important cultural concern. "Government credits [so-called one-child] policy for sharply slowing China's population growth [300m less], but critics say it is a major reason many families now use prenatal scans and selective abortions to make certain their child is a boy. [Hence] reversing birth imbalance between boys and girls cannot be postponed... Nationwide ratio has reached 119 boys for every 100 girls. [I]n a few decades China could have up to 40m bachelors unable to find mates. [Reason:] most Chinese parents, particularly in rural areas, prefer sons. [A]ll parents, worried about their old age, know Chinese tradition holds that a son must care for his parents. A daughter, on the other hand, marries into husband's family. In countryside, where no real social safety net, a son is considered equivalent of pension. [Recently,] fiscal incentives [are] intended to give monetary value to girls and, by doing so, reduce incentive to abort them. Even so, limited scope of program has reduced its impact. [Also,] attitudes hard to change in male-dominated China. Joseph Kahn "China to Cut Taxes on Farmers and Raise Their Subsidies"NYT 03 Feb 05:-"Chinese officials are promising to reduce taxes on peasants and increase farm subsidies to improve the lot of 800m rural residents left behind in the fast-growing economy. Measures... are intended to slow the surging wealth gap between urban/rural residents, major source of social discontent and perhaps the greatest challenge for governing Communist Party... Last year average urban income 3.2 times as much as average rural income, one of the biggest urban-rural divides in the world. [G]overnment has injected hundreds of billions of dollars into developing urban coastal areas while maintaining tight controls over farmland and peasants to ensure steady supplies of grain and surplus labor. [O]ne potential key lies in creating a market for farmland that resembles the one for urban land".

Iain Carson, "A Survey of Air Travel: The Sky's the Limit" The Economist 10 Mar 01(1-23):-describing civil aviation's recent business history and likely trends, also offers considerable key up-to-date information regarding global role and critical future of a huge, world-shrinking industry. Current situation is strangely mixed: airline profits are substantial yet consumers pay 70% less per passenger mile than 20 years ago; revenue per seat declining by 2% a year, yet customer dissatisfaction has reached new peaks(demand exceeds infrastructure)! In 2000, passenger journeys by air exceeded 1.6b(9m 1945);40%of world-manufactured exports by value travelled by air. Omni-route air networks demand created global airline "alliances" that may soon consolidate into three or four. Meanwhile Internet can identify optimal routes, let consumers "shop around" to keep ticket prices competitive, and eliminate all "paper" forms;computers offer a satellite-based system of air traffic control, doubling its capacity.

Stephen Castles and Mark J. Miller ,The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World(New York: Guilford Press 93):-"Conclusion" of this book gives a fine overview of the relevant issues. Highlights: migration is more global, pervasive, and significant than ever before; it is mainly impervious to government policy and resistance; it almost always results in some permanent settlement. The central issues: regulation and integration, illegal migration, durable solutions to pressures (trade, ODA, regional action, policy), ethnic diversity and social change. For the foreseeable future, most states face migration, and new ethnic pluralism, as elements of the post-industrial transition.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Michael Chertoff"The Responsibility to Contain: Protecting Sovereignty Under International Law" (130-147) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"A new framework of international law that confronts modern threats is long overdue. If it is to revive the legitimacy of international law, this order must be predicated on a new principle, under which individual states assume reciprocal obligations to contain transnational threats emerging from within their borders". Emphasized extracts:"Those who challenge the relevance of consent often treat 'sovereignty' as a pejorative term or an antiquated concept". "If US withdraws from international legal institutions to protect its national interests, everyone will lose". "The most serious threats to sovereignty today do not necessarily come from the official acts of other states". "International law has no business interfering with the US domestic system of justice". "States can no longer hide behind seventeenth-century concepts of sovereignty in world of twenty-first-century dangers". Chertoff: US Secretary of Homeland Security. Views expressed are his own.

Jarat Chopra & Tanja Hohe "Participatory Intervention" Global Governance Vol.10/No.3(Jul-Sep 04):-both authors served in UN Transitional Administration in East Timor(UNTAET)and offer thoughtful ideas abouthow UN should optimally build/modify political systems in troubled/new states - a responsibility that isgrowing in UN numbers and importance globally. Experience with administration intervention in Cambodia, East Timor, Kosovo, Namibia, and Somalia has been imperfect, but educational as to how future responsibilities could be improved by more carefully considering what actually constitute the "front lines" - "the level of local administration. Here, Western-style paradigm of state building, which ispreoccupied with forming a national executive, legislature, and judiciary, confronts resilient traditional structures, socially legitimate powerholders, abusive warlords out to win, or coping mechanisms communities rely on under conflict conditions. Options for establishment or reconstruction of governing institutions seem stark: either reinforce status quo and build on it, further empowering the already strong;or replace altogether what exists with new administrative order. But there may be middle road." Essay analyses latter.

Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s),(un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

Walter Clarke & Jeffrey Herbst "Somalia and the Future of Humanitarian Intervention" Foreign AffairsVol.75/No.2(Mar/ Apr 96):-fine account of errors/lessons of UN operation in Somalia. Concludes that, in failed states, UN operations cannot be either short or neutral, and may require installation of full UN administration.

Walter J. Clemens, Jr, Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence(Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners?(8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South MeetsNorth(13) Transitions: Can Second World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham orRevolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat(Ebury Press 04):-book not yet available here but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04 "The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet" (83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce;greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocricy, ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor...As man's appetite for fish has grown, sohas ability to catch them. Modern gadgets...enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before.[But]signs of growing scarcity everywhere[,and]most efforts to manage fish stocks or controloverfishing failed.[Hence fishermen]moved on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited. [D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though some kinds of fish...can now be farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or...mining. [I]nternational agencies monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail.[Lots of unneeded] 'by-catch' generally flung back into sea. Thewaste is appalling; the cruelty equally vile. Trawlers...wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out inClover's excellent book...He exposes follies of fishermen, politicians and celebrity chefs[and]anyone withaccess to common resource has interest in over-exploiting it...In time farming may help" [but also morecareful supervision and management].

Roger A. Coate edit.,U.S. Policy and the Future of the United Nations(New York: Twentieth Century Fund 94):-fine essays on UN political/organizational problems and realistic proposals retain global value sinceissues remain relevant and/or reforms underway. Spiers proposes administrative/structural/peacemaking/ financial reforms. Coate urges inter-agency/ intra- government coordination of UN system. Blechman looks at new intra-state conflict/ preventive action challenges. Graham surveys IAEA proliferation/enforcement needs. Abram urges enforcement of human rights/humanitarian law. Loescher examines new scale/originsof refugees/displaced persons. Gordenker discusses WHO role/problems. Sessions/Steever explore challenges/constraints on Commission on Sustainable Development. Leonard picks UN priorities: security/ economy/ environment/humanitarian action/human rights.

Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic]prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".

Michael A. Cohen et al., edit., Preparing for the Urban Future: Global Pressures and Local Forces (Washington: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1996). - this book was published "in cooperation with the United Nations Centre on Human Settlements" as a background source for the second UN Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) in Istanbul June 1996. Unavoidably it constitutes a compendium of many varied disciplines and perspectives given the extremely broad subject matter. The 1996 issue of The State of the World Population, published annually by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) (op. cit.), also concentrates onurban trends, problems and figures in anticipation of Habitat II.

Roberta Cohen & Francis M. Deng Masses in Flight: The Global Crisis of Internal Displacement (Washington: Brookings 98):-thorough, containing many sound proposals. Written by Deng as UNSG representative on internally displaced persons(IDP).Numbers are big and growing(20-25m IDPs vs 20m refugees)affecting multiple UN roles (humanitarian/human rights/development/ peace/sovereignty)and bodies(DMTS/ ECHA/ ERC/ IOM/ OCHA/ ODIHR(UNHQ)/ UNDP/ UNHCR/ UNICEF/UNIFEM/UNRWA/ WFP/ WHO). Sections: Global View; Legal issues; Institutional issues; NGOs (Red Cross/Voluntary Agencies Council/etc.); Regional Groups; some Strategies/ Proposals; IDP Guiding Principles. For excellent summary of book by authors see "Exodus Within Borders" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.4(Jul/Aug 98).

Roberta Cohen "The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement: An Innovation in International Standard Setting" Global Governance Vol.10/No.4(Oct.-Dec. 04):-includes how and why global concern about internally displaced persons(IDP) has developed, particularly since Cohen/Deng source of 98(op.cit.). "It was not until 90s that absence of international system for IDPs began to be noticed and more traditional notions of sovereignty questioned. One of vivid examples of change in attitude was new set of international standards to protect persons forcibly uprooted in their own countries - Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Introduced into UN Commission on Human Rights 98, they set forth rights of IDPs and obligations of governments/ international community toward these populations...GPs recast sovereignty as form of national responsibility toward one's vulnerable populations with role provided forinternational community when governments did not have capacity/willingness to protect their uprooted populations. Although not legally binding instrument like treaty, GPs quickly gained substantial international acceptance/authority.[Article analyses] origin/development of GPs, reasons for growing international usage,validity of reservations about them, and question whether process that developed them truly constitutes turning point in standard setting reflecting greater role for NGO community in developing internationalnorms of conduct for states."

Isobel Coleman"The Better Half: Helping Women Help the World"(126-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Nicholas D.Kristof & Sheryl WuDunn: Half the Sky:Oppression Into Opportunity for Women Worldwide (Knopf 09). Official summary:"Efforts to provide the world's women with economic and political power are more than just a worthy moral crusade: they represent perhaps the best strategy for pursuing development and stability across the globe. [The $27.95 HC 320pp. book] is an insightful and inspiring call to action". [The review is very persuasive.] Coleman: Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Director of Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. Her book Paradise Beneath Her Feet: How Women Are Transforming the Middle East to be published by Random House this spring. For annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Gender and Foreign Policy" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/gender.

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Commitment to Development Index(CDI), "Ranking the Rich: 2004"in Foreign Policy(Co-Edited with Center for Global Development(CGD))No.142(May/Jun 04)(46-56):-CDI in 2003 was a ranking of rich nationsaccording to how their policies help or hinder social and economic development in poor countries. In2004, CGD/FP unveils...CDI that brings into sharper focus which governments lead the global community in the challenge of development. "Why should rich countries care about development in poor ones? For reasons both pragmatic and principled. In a globalizing world, rich countries cannot insulate themselves from insecurity. Poverty and weak institutions are breeding grounds for public-health crises, violence, and economic volatility. Fairness is another reason to care. No human being should be denied the chance to live free of poverty and oppression, or to enjoy a basic standard of education and health. Yet richnations' current trade policies, for example, place disproportionate burdens on poor countries, discriminatingagainst their agricultural goods in particular. Finally, the countries ranked in the CDI are all democracies that preach concern for human dignity and economic opportunity within their own borders. The index measureswhether their policies promote these same values in the rest of the world".

Steven A.Cook"Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt"(124-130) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2 (Mar/Apr 09):-careful review of : Bruce K.Rutherford Egypt After Mubarak: Liberalism, Islam, and Democracy in the Arab World(Princeton Univ Press 08, 292pp):-official summary of review:"An ambitious effort to explain how the Muslim Brotherhood, the judiciary, and the business sector can work in parallel, if not exactly together, to influence Egypt's political future". Cook is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Wayne A.Cornelius, Philip L.Martin & James F.Hollifield, edit. Controlling Immigration: A Global Perspective (Stanford: Stanford University Press 95):-description of the migration histories, attitudes, policies and prospects of key immigrant-receiving states (West Europe, North America, Japan). Diversecontrol formulas, including multilateral pacts (many with immigrant-source states), are analysed. For a financial look at the cost-benefit of immigration, see the Nov 97 OECD economic report on the "United States", summarized in The Economist 29 Nov 97 (p.81), which concludes that immigration is a net benefit.

Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of purpose/confidence in itself."

Barbara Crossette, "U. N. Council in Rare Accord: Fight Terrorism" New York Times 20 Oct 99:-UN has long been unable to reach agreement over global action on terrorism, a critical lacuna given need to eliminate all sanctuary. "One state's terrorist is another's freedom-fighter" . Now decline -or at least public denial- of state support for terrorist groups, and experience of many with insurgents they brand terrorist, appears to have broken impasse. On 19 Oct Security Council unanimously passed resolution(Russian SC President deemed it "anti-terrorist manifesto" ) regarding growing dangers of international terrorism. Reportedly it calls for "better cooperation and sharing of information among nations and[agencies, and]asks governments to prevent terrorist groups from raising money to deny such groups safe haven and to be vigilant against false refugee claims made by terrorists seeking new bases" .

Barbara Crossette, "Europe Stares at a Future Built by Immigrants" New York Times 2 Jan 00:-probes effects of a decreasing EU population. "To survive economically and socially, Europe may have to...change its racial and ethnic face through mass migration of labor from around[world, finding]itself debating movestoward a social structure that looks more like[North]America's" . In latter" whole idea of citizenship is thatanyone from anywhere can become naturalized" . In Europe, citizenship is usually" still linked to ethnic heritage, or at least to language and culture" . UN experts suggest logical response to declining size is "replacement migration" . To maintain population size, EU would need 35m immigrants by 2025; to maintain pensioner-worker ratio would require 135m. Surplus(skilled) Third World labor is plentiful; so is North American competition for it. Dilemma for Europe(and Japan)is that such mass immigration would at least change, and probably diversify, culture of receiving country. Economist 06 May "Europe's Immigrants: A Continent on the Move" (25-7)looks at situation from economic rather than sociological point of view. Essay sees political problems, but is more sanguine. Western Europe has been absorbing migrants since WWII. Trend now is for seasonal migration, and new source is East Europe.

Barbara Crossette "U.N. Studies How Refugees Qualify to Get Assistance" New York Times 14 Jan 00:-UNSC debate on what Roberta Cohen(Masses in Flight op.cit.)called "absurdity" ;Brookings: "one of most pressing humanitarian, human rights and political issues now facing global community" . Most of 20m+ internally displaced persons(IDPs) ineligible to receive UN assistance simply because not(yet)crossed border out of own country. Many forced from homes(often by own governments who prefer world excluded); most in more danger/distress than those able to reach border; some interspersed with/indistinguishable from "recognized" refugees; often far outnumber latter(Angola: 1-2m to 370,000).UNHCR Ogata stressed how inherent IDP geographic/political/security problems made worse by WWII-vintage definitions. UNSCsupportive of new rules/arrangements for new conditions, with UNHCR in charge.

Barbara Crossette "Advocates for Children Joining U.N. Peacekeeping Missions" New York Times 18 Feb 00:-for first time, UN will assign full-time children's advocates to top operational staff abroad of all peacekeeping missions. Announced by Olara A.Otunnu, Special Representative of SG for Children and Armed Conflict. First advocate assigned for Sierra Leone where atrocities against(and by)children have been particularly serious, and two will be assigned to UN force in Congo, so far all from UNICEF. Otunnu explained:" For protection and welfare of children to be taken seriously, and not be marginalized, we must have[advocates]within central political structure" .Will advise Mission heads, coordinate all child assistance groups, determine necessary programs for children and(since civil war combatants may ignore Conventions)also mobilize public opinion.

Barbara Crossette, "U.N. Warns That Trafficking in Human Beings Is Growing" New York Times 25 Jun 00:-DG of UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention claims that trade in people is "fastest growing criminal market in ...world because of...number of people...involved,..scale of profits being generated for criminal organizations - and...its multifold nature. We don't have just sexual exploitation. We don't have just economic slavery[forced labor and debt enslavement]. We have also a lot of exploitation of migrants. And we have classic slavery. If you put all this together...you get the biggest violation of human rights in[world. R]eliable estimates indicate that 200m people may now be in some way under the sway or in the hands of traffickers of various kinds." UN urges possibly giving temporary residence to would-be immigrants who assist in identifying criminals and reintroduction of anti-slavery laws. Economist 24 Jun "Drugs and Slavery in Myanmar" (48):-according to ILO, many of 1m Burmese refugees along Thai border reportincreasing reliance on slavery by Myanmar regime. While ceasefires have been arranged with most ethnic rebel groups, military keeps control only by "using slaves to build defences, roads and bridges. Locals are forced to clear land, act as porters for the army and provide housing. Refugees claim that forced labourers are even made to march along[mined]roads...800,000 or so people...thought[by ILO]to beexploited in this way" . Roger Cohen, "Europe Tries to Turn a Tide of Migrants Chasing Dreams" NYT 02 Jul:-motivated by death of 58 Chinese illegal immigrants in truck container in Dover, England, this article explains how and why EU has replaced North America as the principal destination of asylum-seekers(and unnumbered illegal immigrants). In 1999 30,000 people applied for asylum in US(compared with 127,000 in 1993), while more than 365,000 sought asylum in EU. Main change has been collapse of USSR, opening up of new land routes to Europe from Asia. Moreover "increasingly well-organized criminal groups...have emerged to coordinate smuggled passages into Europe largely closed to legal immigration" . Also: "[P]enaltiesare far less severe than for drugs, the up-front investment much smaller, and the evidence has legs and tends to run away" explains DG of International Organization for Migration. Finally, Europe is relatively cheap to reach illegally - from China about half cost of transport to US. Economist 24 Jun "The Last Frontier" (63-4)adds that about 30m people are smuggled across international borders every year(up to 500,000 into EU; 300,000 into US). This trade is worth $12-30b, most world traffic being handled by about 50 specialized gangs. UK Immigration concludes: "[G]angs have infrastructures, communications and surveillancecapabilities far in excess of anything that...law enforcement agencies in transit and source countries can muster, and...chances of their activities diminishing is negligible" . Elisabeth Rosenthal, "Chinese Town's Main Export: Its Young Men" NYT 26 Jun:-gives detailed firsthand description of how 80% of 20-40 year oldmen of one town, by working illegally in US, have made it very prosperous, although full of "widows" .

Robert A. Dahl, On Democracy(New Haven: Yale Univ. Press 98):-carefully thought out and well-writtenintroduction to a complex and now globally-relevant subject. It asks and expertly responds to: Where/How Did Democracy Develop?; What is democracy?;Why democracy?; Why Political Equality?;WhatInstitutions?:Scale Factors, Parties, Constitutions, Electoral Systems; What Conditions FavorDemocracy?; Does Market-Capitalism Favor/Harm Democracy? Last Chapter, on Future of Democracy, is most relevant to this bibliography. It concludes: 20th Century was "era of unparalleled triumph" (180)for democracy, but its changing problems in evolutionary times make its future dependent on their solution. Market-capitalism will continue, perhaps with its nature to create inequality softened. Globalizing trends will remain hard to democratize. Human rights for disadvantaged will increase. Migration will raise cultural diversity in "old" democracies. Civic education in complex societies must expand.

Suzanne Daley"Rising Rate of Mad Cow Disease Alarms Europe"New York Times 07 May 00:-showshow hard it is to stop the spread of fatal diseases even with drastic control measures in an interdependent world. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy has just turned up in south-eastern France, having also been detected in native-born cows in 10 other European countries. While the number of continental cases identified is small compared with the 178,000 reported in Britain, those discovered in France have gone from six in 1997 to one weekly in 2000. Moreover the true total of cows (and humans) infected may be much larger as transmission modes and incubation periods remain mysterious. Nevertheless, considerable progress is being made in other respects: Sandra Blakeslee"Clues to Mad Cow Disease Emerge in Study of Mutant Proteins"NYT 23 May 00:-reports on the information exchanged at an international meeting on the disease. While scientists still do not know how the disease spreads to humans, how many more will die from it, and if a similar epidemic could start in the US spread by infected deer and elk, clues are now being discovered on an almost weekly basis. These are based on an infectious agent called the prion, normal proteins found throughout the body tissues of humans and other animals. For unknown reasons thesesometimes transform themselves into tiny particles almost impossible to destroy, and accumulate in the brains of infected animals/people, destroying cells and leaving spongy holes in the tissue. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is the human version and could eventually kill tens of thousands, -or die out. So far the death toll is 56 in Britain, 2 in France, 1 from Ireland.

Richard Dawkins The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Life(London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson 04/Phoenix of Orion Books 05):-author's description of the 700 pages describing this planet's living history since life began: "Tale is a pilgrimage: a journey of four billion years. We, modern human beings, are the pilgrims, and we are travelling back in time to seek out our ancestors. Simultaneously every other living creature is setting off on its own journey with the same mission. Each pilgrim tells its tale along the way, and covers the processes involved in the unfolding of life on Earth". The 40+ chapters describe in turn the form(s) of life progressively in or from more distant periods, offering the best available scientific knowledge/theory, including of course many fossils, and their estimated dates. While much of the necessary vocabulary used is complex, Dawkins writes generously - and often amusingly - for non-scientist readers. Among the many favourable reviews carried in the introduction is one by John Cornwell of Sunday Times: "Beautifully written... Dawkins's account cites a stunning array of biologists past and present. No other book gives such an impression of sheer intellectual vitality and pluralism among the past century's evolutionary scientists. Virtually every page exemplifies a memorable insight into the strangeness and prodigality of nature, its culs-de-sac and its extraordinary leaps". I have read the long text, but each chapter can be read alone.

Louis A.Delvoie"The Kosovo War: A Long Catalogue of Losers"Behind the Headlines Vol.57/No.2,3 (Winter/Spring 00):- NATO's 99 air campaign against rump "Yugoslavia" has had many supporters andcritics. Former mainly argue that it succeeded in noble humanitarian aim of relieving Kosovars from Serbian oppression; latter argue force was itself wrong and/or stress absence of UN imprimatur. Author seeks those involved that were net losers in conflict. NATO: hurt its image/reputation/future effectivenessby launching war of aggression, ending its credibility as purely defensive alliance; United Nations: sidelined/marginalized, lost any post-Gulf hope it might play its Charter peace/ security role; OSCE:reputation/credibility suffered when its 1,300 Observers had to withdraw hastily when many of OSCEmembers attacked state where they were to keep peace; Kosovars: NATO's "beneficiaries" sufferedhundreds dead and thousands displaced before bombing, but thousands dead, hundreds of thousandsdisplaced once two deterrents(OSCE plus threat to bomb)ceased to restrain; Serbs: suffered "collateral" casualties, food/water shortages as infrastructure hit, and vast long-term economic loss from bombing/ sanctions; Balkan Stability: lost in refugee floods, revived ethnic tension; "New European Security Architecture" :Russia reacted with anger/ condemnation, needing much time/effort to defuse; US: lost instature/credibility e.g. through sudden change in KLA image, public policy it would not risk ground troops, ominous intelligence error on Chinese Embassy; Western Governments: caught with double standards over Serbia/Chechnya. Many lessons to be learned.

Francis M.Deng"Dealing with the Displaced: A Challenge to the International Community"Global Governance Vol.1/No.1 (Winter 1995). - one of the best short descriptions of the complex legal and political implications of the growing demand for mass migration and refugee status: an expanding global crisisthat must be faced.

Daniel Deudney & G.John Ikenberry"The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail"(77-93) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.1(Jan/Feb 09):-official summary:"After years of liberal triumphalism, recently fears have grown that autocracies have found new ways to prosper. In fact, the imperatives of liberal democracy are as strong as ever. The key to defanging autocracies is bringing them into the liberal order, not excluding them from it". Emphasized extracts:"There remain deep contradictions between authoritarian political systems and capitalist economic systems". "War as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete". "Emerging global problems will create common interests across states regardless of regime type". Deudney: Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and author of Bounding Power: Republican Security From the Polis to the Global Village. Ikenberry: Albert G.Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars.

Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity(Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaedadiffers radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, andemphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as aresponse to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the'metaphysical evil'emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty'incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a globallandscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement".

Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.

Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.

Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/objective look at globalized world production, trade, financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies, individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history, nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment; different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, serviceindustries; effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.

David Dollar & Lant Pritchett Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-this World Bank Policy Research Report described by The Economist 14 Nov 98(88)as henceforth "the book on foreign aid." Drawing on new research material/long-term surveys, ODA has been "highly effective, totally ineffective, and everything in between" (2). Secret is good governance(for instance in state rebuilding):(1)financial aid really works only in good policy environment; (2) truly wanted improvements in Third World economic institutions/policies key to "quantum leap" in poverty reduction;(3)aid can then complement FDI; (4)value of aid is knowledge that strengthens good policy(most financefungible); (5)active civil society helps lot; (6)in most distorted environments, donors should focus on good advice(particularly to any reformers), not money - presumably extremely important in failed or post-conflict states. Best aid investment is very poor but well-managed countries(India).

Philippe Douste-Blazy & Daniel Altman"A Few Dollars at a Time: How to Tap Consumers for Development"(2-7) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-official summary:"This year, consumers purchasing airline tickets will have a chance to at the same time contribute to the global fight against HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. This initiative is part of a new movement called innovative financing, which seeks to share a tiny fraction of globalization's enormous gains with sick people in poor countries". Final sentence of impressive text:"The backers of innovative financing mechanisms, such as UNITAID, have two main responsibilities: to help fight diseases through novel ways of raising money and also to ensure that their success does not undermine the existing efforts [-government aid budgets-] they set out to strengthen". Douste-Blazy, who served as France's Foreign Minister 2005-07, is currently the United Nation's Special Advisor for Innovative Financing for Development and Chair of UNITAID. Altman is President of North Yard Economics, a not-for-profit consulting firm serving developing countries. Article is adapted from their book on innovative financing, which will be published in Jan 10 by PublicAffairs.

Margaret P.Doxey International Sanctions in Contemporary Perspective: Second Edition (London: Macmillan Press 96):- definitive guide to non-military sanctions. Describes/assesses all major cases since WWI:Italy(1935), Yugoslavia(by USSR), Cuba, Rhodesia, South Africa, Egypt (by Arab League),Iran, USSR(re Afghanistan/Poland), Argentina, Iraq, Yugoslavia/Serbia, Libya, Haiti. Includes: definition, history,types(political, cultural-communications, economic);contexts, frameworks, intentions; costs and burden-sharing; implementation; impact on targets(their vulnerability and response);UN problem areas:(a)decisions to impose/remove;(b)sharing of cost and collateral damage; (c) problems of coordination, monitoring and policing.

Margaret P. Doxey United Nations Sanctions: Current Policy Issues: Revised Edition(Halifax: Dalhousie Univ. 99):-containing information up to Apr 99. Appendix offers basic facts about all sanctions imposed under UN Charter(Chap. VII).Text examines four issues subject to debate:(1)Domestic economic costs of sanctions to "sending" states and prospects for burden-sharing. Options: financial help; tariff adjustments;technical/humanitarian assistance; specific help on sanctions enforcement. (2)Mitigation on humanitarian grounds of sanctions-induced hardships in "targets" . Ideally, punishment fits crime but scope for: improving ways to determine need; handling humanitarian exemptions; avoiding abuse through monitoring.(3)Determining scope for direct targeting of leaders and elite groups. Types of targeted sanctions: personal travel restrictions; limit/end international bodies' membership(privileges); limit air links; cultural/sportsboycotts; financial sanctions(freezing assets)-most promising, but speed/information/selection/discipline critical.(4)Improved administration/enforcement. Much effort underway to improve work of Sanctions Committees; humanitarian issues handled better, but to detect/control serious violations of sanctions regimes still strictly limited.

Margaret P.Doxey"Sanctions Through the Looking Glass: The Spectrum of Goals and Achievements" International Journal Vol.LV/No.2(Spring 00):-expert, realistic look at recent UN experience with sanctions, and at current thinking on how they could be improved. (All Chapter VII sanctions to Jan 00 are listed.)Security Council use of sanctions has increased greatly since 1990(earlier it approved only two: Rhodesia, South Africa); hence study of optimum use has also expanded. US has been keenest supporter, but public opinion in many democracies under media pressure, has increased demands governments "do something" about human rights violations - broadening both "targets" and "goals" and changing criteria of success. Political effective might now include not only gaining compliance, but also stigmatizing orcontaining targets, and as means of preventing or deterring certain action. Success is harder to judge, particularly when multiple pressures, to both apply and satisfy. All are analysed. Finally, essay discusses means of focusing sanctions better, not only on elites but away from innocents.

Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known ascrusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion".Other elements are described: the serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis andrecommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known ascrusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion".Other elements are described: the serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis andrecommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and broad publications being written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The widely-known author of this book, however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly, even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a number of the great powers, climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats' to its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant probability of wars, including even nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover). The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible and worrisome scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in a region suffering from the experience of climate change. The other is the author's carefully quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008 personal interviews.

The Economist 15 Nov 97: "Delivering the Goods" (85-6). - an excellent Brief on the very recent revolution in the transportation of goods (as opposed to people), and how it contributed to the globalization of trade. Directly relevant to IMO, ICAO and WTO activities.

The Economist 04 Apr 98 "Millions Want to Come" (55-6). - a regional problem with wider implications: a useful study of the difficulties faced by the EU in managing legal and illegal immigration, and refugee claimants, particularly with the EU and Schengen (no intra-EU controls) both expanding in number and authority.Problems: differing aims, rules, attractions.

The Economist 25 Jul 98 "A Challenge to Impunity" (Edit.21-2):-cautiously optimistic on decision in Rome to establish International Criminal Court, despite US attempts to weaken and finally block it. Vote 120-7 in favour left US "humiliated and glum"but, as with landmine treaty, it showed willingness of other states to move ahead without superpower to create rule of law. Text outlines questions of contention and weakness but argues court is long overdue(planned to follow Nuremberg/Tokyo trials); however, large body of international law covering genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity has developed since. Court can show both independence and moral force.

The Economist 20 Feb 99 "Europe's Smuggled Masses" (45-6):-illegal "economic" migration has been UN concern for many years. Increasing divergence between standards of living in "rich" and "poor" countries andwider awareness of this fact has been expected to increase problem. Article describes what may be world's largest and potentially most vexing flow; estimates: at least 400,000 now smuggled into EU each year. Several routes are used by professional smugglers: by sea from Morocco to Spain, or from Albania or Tunisia to Italy; by land from Sarajevo via Slovenia to Italy or Austria, from Istanbul via Ukraine and Poland, or via Rumania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic to Germany; alternatively from Greece into Macedonia and on, or from Russia into Finland. "Many" smuggled are Albanians, Kurds, Afghans, Bangladeshis, Iraqis, Iranians. Organized "trade" often ends in asylum demands.

The Economist 06 Mar 99: "Drowning in Oil" (19)and "Cheap Oil: The Next Shock?" (23-5): - an editorial and a major essay on the prospects and implications of oil remaining cheaper in real terms than in 1973 (the first OPEC oil shock). On the basis of normal long-term commodity price trends and lower production costs, the price will probably stay low (currently $10 a barrel ). The reason is that since OPEC forced prices up, and kept them high by limiting production, higher-cost fields outside the Middle East became economic. Now domestic budget pressure on Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, may make them ignore unworkable quotas totally and produce whatever they can sell. This could drive prices as low as $5 a barrel and make some other fields uneconomic. While unlikely to raise global demand greatly (owing to concern over CO2, more natural gas use, and new energy-saving techniques), it would increase world dependence on an unstable region.

The Economist 17 Apr 99 "Refugees: Exporting Misery" (23-7):-origins, political/military uses, ultimate destinies, of many past refugee issues, designed to help determine Serb aims and NATO options in Kosovo. While global number/exploitation/impact of refugees seem to have escalated recently, tragedy so chronic that historical lessons can be drawn. Nature of triggering conflict(ideological/ethnic/economic)and how it ends are critical. Ethnic conflicts most difficult to end, while reconciliation aids resettlement. Of four types of basic refugee assistance(safe havens in homeland; camps nearby; more distant resettlement; permanent repatriation), experience and circumstances favour repatriation in spite of difficulty/high cost. Additional lessons: separate refugees from combatants; give them some choice of location if movement necessary; or of timing if repatriation possible.

The Economist 23 Apr 99 "Fuel Cells Hit the Road" (77-8):-carefully-worded article reports on significant advances in emission-free vehicle motors." A fuel cell works by chemically combining hydrogen with oxygen from the air. The result is energy in the form of moving electrons, which is used to power an electric motor; and water, the fuel cell's principal waste product" .Electric motor runs vehicle which effectively produces no pollution - and California requires 10% "zero-emission vehicles" by 2004. Hencefuel-cell cars by Daimler-Chrysler, Ford and Ballard Power Systems(" Canadian firm that has been developing fuel cells for use in vehicles for several years" )demonstrated to California government, and 45 of their cars and buses will be road-tested for four years mainly in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Toyota andGeneral Motors just signed pact to develop modern "alternatives" including vehicles powered by fuel cells. Also, since hydrogen is an explosive gas" with a ridiculously low boiling point" , oil companies Shell, Texaco and Arco producing petrol-less methanol to enable hydrogen to be made "'on the fly'...and it is thischemical...put in[gas]tanks" and available at selected gas stations. Active participants have several other problems to solve. For instance, fuel cells need to start more rapidly in cold weather, and widespreadownership will require efficient infrastructure. Ballard's design" is a polymer membrane coated on either side with platinum electrodes(the platinum also acts as a catalyst). On one side of the membrane, hydrogenis decomposed into its constituent electrons and protons. The electrons disappear into the electrode, while the protons pass through the membrane. On the other side the electrons return via the second electrode, having passed through the coils of an electric motor that drives the wheels of the car. Here, they recombinewith the protons, and also oxygen atoms, to make water" . Explains high cost of building fuel cell engine now and need to lower it. Cost cases described.

The Economist "Letters" 15 May 99: "Fuelling the Argument" (6):-contains response from Vlado Bevc of San Ramon, California to 24 Apr article(op.cit.). He contends that producing hydrogen "takes substantially more energy than one can get back by burning it. Energy required, if production is to be at significant level can come only from fossil fuels needed for electric-power generation(clean sources of electric energy[presumably not including nuclear]are insignificant) or from reformating hydrogen from hydrocarbons. In either case, process results in as much if not more carbon dioxide than would be produced by using internal-combustion engines in first place." In "Re Fuelling" 29 May "Letters" , Amory Lovins of Rocky Mountain Institute, Colorado,argues that while turning water into hydrogen takes more energy than turning hydrogen back into water, Bevccompares hydrogen's energy content with that of fossil fuels as if it would simply be burnt. In fact, fuel cells "can turn hydrogen into car motion about four times as efficiently as normal car engine, or into electricity twice as efficiently as a classical power station and grid...yield[ing]major savings in fuel, climate risk...money[and]conventional pollution" (6).

The Economist 29 May 99 "Energy: the New Convergence" (59-60):-describes how oil companies are moving into natural gas and electricity distribution/sales. Move reflects high expected demand growth for gas(2+%/year or double that for oil) driven mainly by rising use for power generation(75% of new US capacity, and 40% of all European generation by 2010)in turn reflecting its low carbon emissions(Kyoto Accord).Deregulation of gas and/or power sectors in 70 countries, allows/encourages formation of "global energy firms" (Texaco)and "total energy management (Shell). Overall effect: change very nature of vitally importantenergy business. [Combined with new developments in low-emission vehicle engines(see Economist 24 Apr, 15 May and Lugar, all op.cit.), it might help reduce "oil interests" opposition to higher North American gasoline prices, aimed at reducing carbon pollution.]

The Economist 24 Jul 99 "How Angola's War Protects Polio" (43):-sobering evidence of both human security's interdependence and multiple afflictions of violence. Probably WHO's greatest achievement was global eradication of smallpox in 79. For 10 years UN bodies/governments been fighting to eradicate polio, which at peak killed or paralysed 500,000 people annually. Effective vaccine now immunizes by few drops in baby's mouth. Hence by 98 reported cases reduced to 5,000, limited to pockets mainly in Africa/South Asia, thus creating hope to eliminate polio by 00. But these last bastions hardest, mainly because of civil wars, e.g. Sierra Leone/Congo/Sudan/Somalia. In Angola, UNITA has both blocked aid workers and driven so many refugees into such huge camps these actually created major polio outbreak. "For polio virus, war is last safe haven" .

The Economist 24 Jul 99 "Stepping on the Gas" (Edit: 19-20) "Fuel Cells Meet Big Business/How a Fuel Cell Works" (59-60):-items stress/explain rapid progress in developing commercially viable fuel cells(previous material: 24 Apr 99). Main article claims: "dramatic shift in thinking of big business" ;$1.5 billion will have been spent on fuel cell R&D by next year; and costs have already fallen so sharply car makers believe mass production will help them close fuel cell/internal-combustion price gap to meet California's 2004 deadline for 10% no-emissions car sales. Power-generation companies hope to be well-established by then, with fuel cells soon competitive with alternatives, from coal to gas-fired, possibly reaching $5 billion a year globallyin power generation equipment in decade. Editorial urges: (1)end hydrocarbon fuel subsidies;(2)deregulate energy; (3)common platforms for technology/infrastructure(UN?). "Poor countries have the most to gain from this efficient, flexible and(eventually)cheap technology" .

The Economist 04 Dec 99 "Honda: Stack of Trouble" (64-5):-report on recent events in global race to produce first economic fuel-cell powered vehicle and how related costs are forcing industry consolidation. Described are developments at Honda, whose forte has always been car propulsion. It has designed engine, its "version of a fuel-cell stack, soul of machine that within 20 years may replace internal-combustion engine with hydrogen-powered electric motors" .But this model seems below standards reached by leading combination of Ballard Power Systems-DaimlerChrysler-Ford, or even by their rivals, General Motors-Toyota(Economist 24 Apr, 24 Jul 99, Koppel op.cit.). Honda has also installed(sealed)Ballard fuel cell in prototype electric car, made very-low-emission direct-injection and diesel engines, and launched first hybrid petrol-electric car, but may have to merge owing to high cost.

The Economist 11 Dec 99 "Space-Age Soot" (73-4):-related to preceding, reports a probable solution to the challenge of safe, efficient and compact storage of hydrogen in fuel-cell vehicles. Since it is a flammable gas at room temperature, options have included compressing or liquefying, or storing it chemically as methanol or cleaner gasoline. Most effective storage medium, however, appears to be in carbon structures. Unusual types of molecular carbon form structures known as nanotubes or nanofibres, which absorb hydrogen wellat room temperature. Soot-like grains having "sponged-up" hydrogen could be put into hydrogen cartridgeswould be sold and replaced at filling stations. Researcher reports synthesizing nanofibres capable ofstoring 65% of own weight of hydrogen(6.5% or range of 500km would make idea practical). Other scientists are sceptical, but several claims of over 10% have been made.

The Economist 11 Dec 99 "The Non-Governmental Order: Citizens' Groups" (20-1):-how and why "citizens' groups" (NGOs) are increasingly powerful at corporate, national, international level, and whether representmove towards "international civil society" or "dangerous shift of power to unelected and unaccountablespecial-interest groups" . Their growth was enabled by: communism's fall; democracy's spread; technological change; economic integration. Reflects concern over: environment; labour-human-consumer rights; poverty; jobs; etc. Rapid, mass news dispensing or joint action are promoted by: democratisation; technology.Number: international NGOs: 26,000; national NGOs: US - 2m; India - 1m; East Europe - 0.1m. Membershipin one NGO can exceed .5m. Roles: deliver services(NGOs dispense more aid than UN system); others stressadvocacy. "Technical groups" specialize providing expert analysis/ information and assist planners, decision-makers, negotiators, advocates at all levels. Governments can be helped, manipulated or blocked; some international organizations/corporations can co-opt such NGOs(World Bank); others may fail(controversial IOs and MNCs).

The Economist 18 Dec 99 "South Seas Piracy: Dead Men Tell No Tales" (87-9):-survey of state/techniques of world maritime piracy, concentrated mainly in South-East Asia. Article reports that pirate attacks, usually against large ships, have doubled during 1990s, to 200 a year. Last year, 67 crew members were killed, 66 in Asian waters where nearly three-quarters of all world's attacks take place. In their more mundane form, ad hoc gangs in speedboats board ships for minor theft(mooring ropes; petty cash). Since gangs are willing to kill with guns or machetes, most crews carry no weapons and are under strict instructions to follow pirates' orders. New sophisticated threat is hijacking of ships and cargos by international crime syndicates, with hints of official collusion. Ship names and papers are changed easily, as is cargo "ownership" . UN International Maritime Organization and shipping companies are working onlegal/technical counter-measures. For updates see Economist 21 Jul 01 and 12 Jun 04(op.cit.).

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "NGOs: Sins of the Secular Missionaries" (25-7):-fairly critical view of roles/motives of some NGOs, neither as essentially descriptive as Weiss-Gordenker or Economist 11 Dec 99, nor as strongly negative as Maren(all op.cit.).Aim essentially to warn all concerned that handling verylarge funds, competition in situ with often huge numbers of rival NGOs, and/or getting heavily dependenton regular government, corporate or media support, can deform even best intentions. For instance" [s]omeprimarily helpers, distributing relief where needed; some mainly campaigners, existing to promote issuesdeemed important by their members,[but in practice not always everywhere]altruistic, idealistic and independent." Varied activities - both constructive and questionable - described, as is their new Code of Conduct. Chief failing may be lack of accountability.

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "Hybrid Vigour?" (94-5) :-this article reports on the latest development in the battle to produce economic and environmentally-friendly vehicles. The Detroit motor show saw the introduction by General Motors of the "Precept" , and by Ford of the" Prodigy" , their new fuel-efficient supercars. The first products of a six-year $240m-annual-budget US Government program called Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, they achieve the equivalent of 80mpg(35km/litre) of gas. Their fuel-efficiency is the result of new light technology and a "hybrid power pack" consisting of a combination of electric and diesel motors to deliver energy more efficiently and recycle as much of it as possible. Unfortunately, and in spite of the huge investment of tax money, they cost thousands extra, but save little money in use. Above all, the writer expects them to be" obsolete within a decade" . "The future almost certainly belongs to the fuel-cell" .

The Economist 29 Jan 00 "The Rules of Secession" (22):- Editor raises hot question: Is there right to secede?If "sophisticated states are no longer neurotically attached to bits of territory" , but would not welcome "new profusion of tiny tribal states" it offers four principles with which to judge demands:(1) "Secession should neither be encouraged nor discouraged...it is in itself neither good nor bad" . [Even, like Editor, ignoring violent emotions/ greed as dangerous/bad motives for secession(see 4 Mar Economist: "War and Money..." )there are other inherently serious "bad" secessions, particularlycreation of non-viable states: East Timor?apartheid's" Bantustans" ?Bosnia? Kosovo?rump Canada minus Quebec?.](2) "It should be carried out only if clear majority(well over 50%-plus-one of voters)have freely chosen" .[Ducks absolutely critical question of who gets to vote: all in Ireland?Ulster?Cyprus? Bosnia?Canada?;all(but only?)ethnic group members of which some want to secede:Quebecois?francophones in Canada?in Belgium?Kurds?Punjabis?Kashmiris?;all deeply affected by secession: all Canadians?](3) "Secessionist territory must offer guarantees that any minorities it drags along will be decently treated" .[One's "decency" is another's "oppression" so who sets/judges/imposes guarantees?; what if some refuse to be "dragged" :change borders?secessions within secessions?resettlement(i.e. "cleansing" )?](4) "Secessionists should be able to make reasonable claim to be national group" .[Since" Bosnians" could not, cannot, and for long will not be able to do so, who decides?when and how much should numbers/history count(Palestine)?latest inter/intra-state/ethnic borders often produce fatal new units(Tito's mis-divided Yugoslavia?Quebec?)so how(much)respected?]

The Economist 5 Feb 00"[Air Transport:] Africa's Unfriendly Skies" (42):- Africa is identified as the continent with the worst aviation record. A 1988-98 chart shows fatal accidents per million flights(Western-built jets). North America/Caribbean is consistently the best(about 0.2-0.3); Europe next best(about 0.4-0.5);both slowly improving, but facing serious traffic congestion problems(see Business: 57-8). Because of their weight in total numbers of flights, the World figure is very close to theirs, also showing a slow decline(from 0.6-0.8 to below 0.5). Asia, though a worse/more erratic record, has also improved(from about 1.5 in the early 90s, past a peak of 2.0 in 1993, and then fairly steadily down to 0.9 in 1998). South/Central America, after a terrible period(about 3.1-3.2)in 1989-90, has sharply and almost constantly improved(below 1.0 in 1998). Africa's record has been very erratic as well as the worst(an average about 2.0, with a low of 1.0 in 1993, a high of 2.9 in 1995, and just above 2.0 in 1998). African problems: weather, overloading, poor service, weak regulations, inadequate traffic control or funds for airports, technology, training, maintenance. Funding, inspection, maintenance are up; war's impact remains.

The Economist 04 Mar 00 "War and Money: The Business of Conflict" (46-8):-while land/people conquesthas long been goal of warfare, such "fixed assets" can now be costly and unstable. Report by ICRC(Forum: War, Money and Survival,Geneva:Mar 00)argues: "Prolonged internal violence in[lands]with rich natural resources but corrupt or weak governments may best be understood as battles for money or[marketable]resources...Some wars are caused in large part by corruption and banditry...whereas otherswhich may have begun as ethnic or ideological conflicts, are now sustained in part by illicit trading[Afghan opium, Colombian cocaine]. Rebels, governments and even peacekeepers have fought for diamonds, minerals and timber in recent wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone" . Many participants(arms/other traders, mercenaries)may prefer to continue to exploit a war rather than win and end it. Such "resource" wars are particularly hard to end if the" fighters" have no goal but profit. Trade sanctions may help;then smugglers gain. As example of key role of diamonds in financing bloody and protracted war in Angola, see Barbara Crossette "Report on Angola Sanctions is Challenged in the U.N." New York Times 16 Mar 00. One in series of fine articles on expert investigation for Security Council's Angola Sanctions Committee, it reports two African presidents, Bulgarian government and diamond exchange in Antwerp were inter alia implicatedin smuggling and sale of Angolan diamonds by UNITA rebels, contrary to UN sanctions. Canadian committeechairman has called for action against sanctions-busters, first time a sanctions committee has actively enforced embargo. Corrective action was promised. For full account of diamonds' role in conflicts: Blaine Harden "Africa's Gems: Warfare's Best Friend" NYT 06 Apr. Expert claims 10-15% of world supply comes from war zones. World Bank report goes further and blames outbreak and/or continuation of vast majority of recent civil wars, not on ethnic motives, but on greed for control of valuable commodities like diamonds, other gemstones, narcotics, oil, coffee etc. Joseph Kahn "World Bank Blames Diamonds and Drugs for Many Wars" NYT 16 Jun sees two conclusions: discourage states from becoming too heavily dependent on commodities, and control their illicit sale before/during conflict. Barbara Crossette, "Singling Out Sierra Leone, U.N. Council Sets Gem Ban" NYT 06 Jul:-action by UNSC in latter direction: it" imposed worldwide ban on purchase of rough diamonds from Sierra Leone until its government can establish system to certify origin of stones being exported, and begins to assert authority over diamond fields" . Most are now under rebel control, with stones smuggled out through Liberia. Resolution is admittedly experimental, but aims at roots of war, reflects growing cooperation from both industry/governments, and may signal major new UN peacemaking tool. Economist 08 Jul "Is That a Rebel Rock on Your Finger?" (42):-notes West African governments(with US support) prevented extending ban to Liberia, but it may at least lower smugglers' prices-up to 50%. Associated Press "Diamond Industry Acts to Halt Trade in Illicit Gems From Africa" NYT20 Jul: World Diamond Congress, conscious that growing horror about "blood diamonds" could seriously hurt trade, has arranged means(verifiable certificates of place of origin)to track diamonds mine/retailer and applyheavy penalties(ban licences)to who break rules.

The Economist 11 Mar 00 "Floods and Their Damage: After the Deluge" (52):-describes global flood disaster threat, and warns of worse to come. Approximately 100,000 people 1999 were killed in natural disasters, highest toll since 1991. Normally half are victims of floods. Moreover in 1998 300m people were affectedby floods, and annually about 3m lose their homes. In future, as population increases, more people live in vulnerable areas, so global flood damage is expected to increase. Already 50% world lives on/near coast -10m(mostly very poor)at constant sea risk. Millions in hillside slums subject to mud-slides; others inovercrowded flood-prone river valleys. Settlement itself increases flood danger through erosion, deforestation, water diversion, damming. Global warming will make half LDCs' population vulnerable to floods/storms. Better safety-measures/aid must be long-lasting.

The Economist 01 Apr 00"How Green Is Your Hydrogen?" (74):-the article draws on a report by the (Canadian)Pembina Institute. It addresses the fact that fuel-cell vehicles need hydrogen, so some sort ofenergy must be used to produce this basic fuel. Not only do most economic forms of energy generation produce carbon dioxide, but in the medium term the hydrogen will be stripped from hydrocarbon molecules as found in fossil fuels. This can be done in the vehicle by using a chemical "reformer" - which releasesthe surplus carbon as carbon dioxide. So the report calculated the total "well-to-wheel" release of greenhouse gases using various fuels (including "clean" gasoline/ methanol). The best was found to benatural gas: it is easy and efficient to reform into hydrogen -and cheap. Volume problems are solved if gas stations have big reformers and sell hydrogen as a solid(metal hydride).This uses the same space per energy unit as gasoline.

The Economist 01 Jul 00 "Selling Fuel Cells" (83):-item says General Motors seems to have gainedadvantage in high-stakes race with Ballard-Daimler-Ford to develop economic fuel cell car(Koppel op.cit.). New GM prototype (HydroGen1)is 1/3 size of its predecessor, but produces about 60% more power(thermal efficiency is nearly four times that of best gas-powered vehicles). Engine warms up at -40C in 1/10 time of other fuel cells, and its fuel tank (hydrogen for 600km)is size of ordinary gas tank. Possibly on market by 2004, improvements do not reflect breakthrough but many engineering refinements. "Itlooks increasingly likely that eventual replacement for internal-combustion engine in motor vehicles will be fuel cell.[C]ar makers now investing heavily in[them]" .

The Economist 19 Aug 00 "The Caucasus: Where Worlds Collide" (17-9):-tackles perhaps most ethnically explosive/ politically unruly/economically depressed region in world. It offers non-experts concise picture of "states" in area, whether recognized(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia),self-proclaimed(Abkazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia),aspiring(Ajaria?, Dagestan?, Ingushetia?, Javakheti?, Nakhichevan?, North Ossetia?)or neighbouring(Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey)in terms of their recent clashes/multiple secession/inter-ethnic problems; appalling political/economic conditions, and interests/roles of almost all in others' affairs. Wonderful chart on this. Among major points made: there might be 100b barrels of oil and gas around Caspian; 3000km of international borders in Caucasus of which 9km(sic)truly friendly; "same cocktail of bad government, spite-thy-neighbour and poverty poisons life in[whole]of Caucasus" ; "political and military stalemate disguises economic/social catastrophe" ; since independence2m(50%of population)emigrated from Armenia, 1m(20%)from Georgia, 1.5m(20%)from Azerbaijan; for one of many "solutions" :www.ceps.be.

The Economist 02 Sep 00 "South Africa's Role in the World" (Edit:17-8); "South Africa's Migrant Workers: A Ticket to Prosperity" (21-4):-stresses economic/political importance of Africa's "mini-superpower" to continent. South Africa "already region's motor; if it could grow faster, would pull its neighbours along.[Further,]obvious country ...to help out with Africa's peacekeeping" .Health, role, future therefore have global influence, so essay takes positive view of massive labour migration(temporary/permanent)into South Africa from all continent. Arguments: (1) migrants' economic/social conditions, though generally bad, and worse than locals' , are better than home, or migration would not continue;(2)indispensable to all southern African economies. Estimates of total illegal migrants in South Africa range 2-8m. Even if closer to 2m, this is major part of work force in country of 46m(almost none bring family). Employers gain lowerwages, harder work and often better education (skilled South Africans of all colours also keen emigrants.)Mines employ 120,000(Mozambique/Lesotho)as more skilled, less militant than locals; farm pay is unattractive to locals. Migrants find more/cheaper goods - many brought home; others come to trade - often exchanging home/local products; others create businesses. Migrants have high HIV rates; take virus home; but also take what seem like fortunes. On balance, African migrants help themselves, hosts, and homes.

The Economist 7 Oct 00:" Morocco: Children in the Boiler-Room" (55):-reports on perhaps an extreme example of child labour, but well illustrates its causes/effects/excuses. UNICEF "child-free" certificates oncarpets were never used in Morocco because" the handicraft sector, the second-largest employer, would have been crippled" . Children do a wide variety of jobs, including up to 1m child-maids. This is not slave labor only in that $14($10 for 10-hour days at carpet-weaving)is paid per month, usually to parents. "Abuseis rampant, murder occasional. But the government resists regulation for fear of revealing the extent of itschild workforce to the [ILO]" . Poor parents keep having children - for income; if there is no work, they are sent to beg; if peasants cannot feed them, they are(preferably) sent to work in the cities. Morocco has thehighest proportion of homeless children in the Arab world, many addicted to glue-sniffing. The US estimates that, inter alia to finance this habit, there are more than 10,000 child prostitutes in Casablancaalone. While education is compulsory (since 1963)at least 2.5m children are out of school, and half of Morocco is illiterate. Government advisors claim child labor is better than the streets:" What is the point of an education [if] the current system produces 100,000 jobless graduates a year" . City unemployment is25% - which helps to explain the continuous flow of illegal migrants across the Mediterranean to Spain. The" modernizing" king, Mohammed, recognizes" that his uneducated workforce is one of the biggestobstacles to growth" ; he is turning mosques into schools, fines parents if their children miss class(enforcement is weak), and declared a jihad to educate his subjects.

The Economist 28 Oct 00 "United Nations and Refugees: Ruud Surprise" (43-4):-Ruud Lubbers, former Dutch PM (82-94),unexpected choice to succeed Mrs. Sadako Ogata as United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Refugee agency, which has annual budget of more than $1b, is most politically active of UN's agencies. [Having played critical, life-saving role in all-too-many wars and humanitariancrises, its] importance will continue, and perhaps expand. Displacement of civilians, once semi-accident of war, has now become one of main goals of warring parties. Worldwide now 14m refugees...and 21m internally displaced people[under UNHCR care]" . Global total unknown but much larger. Priority of refugee over IDP may end, since latter often need more urgent help. Controversial distinction is between( "threatened" )refugees and(up to billions of)economic migrants. Barbara Crossette "Dutch Figure Seen as Choice for U.N. Post With Refugees" NYT 25 Oct 00:-picked up appointment in advance and addedother details. Term is five years(Ogata held for nearly ten),job is viewed as one of most important in UN system, being responsible for staff of about 5,000 working in more than 120 countries. Lubbers, like WHODirector-General, Gro Harlem Brundtland(former PM of Norway)and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Mary Robinson(former president of Ireland), is another high-level political leader added to UNSGAnnan's team of administrators. Reuters "Ogata Says UN Council Is Too Slow And Inflexible" NYT 10 Nov 00:-Sadako Ogata, in farewell speech as UNHCR to Security Council, gave piece of her mind to only body in world on which every government has conferred "primary responsibility for maintenance of international peace and security" (Charter Art.24).Among her criticisms: Nature of war has changed, sincemuch is now civil strife conducted by undisciplined guerrilla armies. "In spite of discussions on wider approaches, peace operations continue to be country-based, and reflect neither internal nor regional nature of many of today's wars." Moreover, Council dispatched peacekeepers far too late to protectuprooted citizens or even UN staff in field[UNHCR has suffered more fatal casualties than any other UN agency]. "We at UNHCR have become used to being called to confront refugee emergencies, literally at few hours' notice. We have no choice: delays in our work inevitably means that lives are lost." Council alsoinflexible in expanding operations across borders to aid trapped refugees(terrible examples of Rwanda-Zaire and East-West Timor).Currently Guinea has requested security aid to help half-a-million trapped refugees in its areas bordering Liberia and Sierra Leone; yet only presence of international community ishumanitarian." Ogata contended that governments are receptive to "ladder of options" to improve local security in refugee-inhabited areas. She also argued gap between short-term aid and development programs too large once emergencies ended.(UNSC going to discuss peacekeeping reforms next day..)Economist 27 Jan 01 "A New Deal For Refugees: Changed Course" (48):-negative report on UNHCR Lubbers' commitments and plans. It notes many maintaining/benefiting from UNHCR operations found his selection process "murky and undemocratic" , suspecting he gained post "along with" orders from major donors to cut organization back. In any event, he announced 24 Jan that budget would drop well below its recent $1b annual level, in hope that funding levels would at least become reliable. He proposes thatmuch UNHCR relief work(giving refugees food, shelter, other services)be assumed by NGOs, WFP,businesses. Lubbers also wants to reverse Ogata's special interest in 25m IDPs, arguing they areresponsibility of "their own governments" (if any).Regarding asylum-seekers, he takes tougher line, however: Europeans(sic) "must take seriously responsibility of giving asylum" .

The Economist 11 Nov 00 "Look, No Pilot: Pilotless Combat Aircraft" (101-2):-testing Boeing X-45A, first example of unmanned combat aerial vehicle(UCAV). Long used for surveillance, unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)have never carried weapons, whereas X-45As can carry bombs, decoys or Joint Direct Attack Munitions(smart weapons)plus all most advanced avionics: synthetic-aperture radar/satellite communications equipment. Advantages over manned combat aircraft: lessweight/size(stealth)/cost(build/(re)use/maintain)/training/control; better endurance/transport/ manoeuverability/storage. Initial role: suppress enemy air defence/air superiority. Challenges: controllinglarge numbers in limited airspace; jamming/interception of control signals; target assessment. Future: 90%combat aircraft unmanned by 2025. Mobility of UCAV's is great: being small, 12 X-45As can fit into one transport aircraft, yet its own range is long.

The Economist 18 Nov 00 "Land Warfare: The Shape of the Battle Ahead" (29-33):-probes emotional "air-vs-land" battle over warfare's future nature/weaponry. At issue is whether hi-tech combat(Gulf/Kosovo)has given airpower final advantage in effectiveness trade-off among protection/mobility/firepower. Accelerating pace of technological change is forcing land-warfare experts to defend even old-fashioned virtues of teamwork/leadership/courage, while whole tradition of armoured warfare, hobbled by heavy transport/supply needs, is fighting for its life against long-distance/" stand-off" weapons. Any armour may be penetrated so speed/stealth may be preferable and not all weapons systems need to be manned(11NovEconomist). Such general questions/options form bases for much debate/theory on both sides of Atlantic regarding optimum roles/equipment for ground forces. Yet, no consensus yet developed over real issue: how best to deal with fast-moving target of technological change.

The Economist 18 Nov 00"Dams: A Barrage of Criticism" (94-6):-reports on the first comprehensive effort to analyse environmental, economic and social impacts of world's 45,000 large dams - the work of The World Commission on Dams involving the World Bank, industry, etc. on 1000 dams over two years. Itconcludes that their overall costs to both man and nature are "mostly negative" ,although every third country uses hydro power for 50+% of electricity and over one-third of irrigated land depends on dams. Their building usually means clearing forests etc.; reservoirs become silted from upstream; rotting vegetation emits CO₂/methane - possibly accounting for 25+% of "global-warming potential" of atmospheric gases. Some alter flood cycles and downstream flows; some pollute rivers, remove nutrients, alter watertemperature - affecting survival of plants, fish and animals, but breeding mosquitos -hence malaria etc. Over $2 trillion has been invested and 80m displaced, though dams often unprofitable, slow to deliver, prone to corruption, distorted in their benefit.

The Economist 09 Dec 00"India's Economy Opens Its Doors: The China Syndrome" (50):-excellent summary of the problems, policies and prospects of the largest really poor economy in the world. AtWTO behest, in Mar India removes its last quantitative import restrictions(mostly consumer/agriculturalgoods)while GDP growth this FY will be almost 6%; reserves almost cover a year's imports; current-account deficit likely below 2% GDP; exports are booming. Yet most feel this is not good enough: China gets 10+ times India's foreign investment and exports 5+ times the merchandise. Indian firms carry six burdens:very high power costs; high interest rates; combined red tape/corruption; high sales and local taxes; slow/expensive transport; and inflexible labour markets. In response, PM has set 8% growth target and recently liberalised India's telecom market," which should speed its emergence as an [IT] power" . But bothmulti-beneficial privatization and road infrastructure building need acceleration. Worse, politics isimpeding essential labour/fiscal/tariff reforms.

The Economist 23 Dec 00 "Shrinking Families: The Empty Nursery" (95-7):-essay on below-replacement fertility rates implies:(1)population decline anywhere would be "worrying" ,presumably since current huge/unprecedented human numbers are "just right" or even too low, but no explanation why; (2)rich countries' population trends/totals can/should be totally divorced from both their unsustainable consumption levels and any concerns about global population growth/consumption levels;(3)large-scale/balancing migration is useless. Extracts:" [Is an]only child pattern of the future? Of all questionsabout our new century, few are as important as this...Too few babies is emerging as bigger worry in many countries...than too many[globally? i.e. how we support global population still growing at 80m/year]...Of 35of world's richest countries, in only three[Iceland, New Zealand, US]are women producing enough babies...to replace existing population.[Trends in US, Europe, China, South Korea.]Motherhood is becoming a mid-life digression[and]postponing childbearing[mainly for educational/career reasons]leads to many more single child families.[L]ong-run trend will surely be for people to have rather fewer children, on average, than replacement of human race requires. As result, 21st century will probably see...humannumbers stop rising and begin to decline...[W]hile environment may gain, society may well lose[not enough pension contributors; kinship a weaker force; old people with no immediate relatives; majority are first-born/only offspring" .In addition, thoughtful theme Editorial on "Tales of Youth and Age" (17-8)relates to notingimplications of aged forming increasing percentage of world's population over course of century. There is also highly relevant/amusing essay in same issue: "Prolonging Life: Who Wants To Live Forever?" (23-4). Partly historical/philosophical, it also offers information and food for thought. Neanderthals lived about20 years; mid-18th century average lifespans were only up to 30. Today's world average life expectancy is 65 years, with those in rich countries 75-80, result of improvements in living conditions, public healthand medical care. Individual lifespans are not huge by historical standards: 122 years is longest documented. Two life-lengthening methods have been successful with animals: semi-starvation (unpopular with humans)and selective breeding(would require centuries/heartache for humans). Genetic manipulation, however, now seems feasible, although ageing process involves many genes. Life would remain an invariably fatal disease, but age researchers claim that if people were able to preserve their maximum health and vigour, they would on average live for about 1,200 years, with about 0.1% lasting for 10,000. Short of instant over-population, world would soon consist of extremely old, and tiny, "dwindling, resentful" group of younger people. [Economist's opposition to lower birth-rates in rich countries was explained later as producing short-/mid-term economic stress in advanced states. Its older populations cannot be supported by relatively smaller numbers of young personnel and not yet handled by obvious longer-term solutions. These include:(a)economic participation/ generation of workers for progressively more years;(b)entire assets needed for pension-funds totally pre-generated/ saved before retirement;(c)less-labor-dependent economies modified by gains in human-progressiveness.]

The Economist 06 Jan 01 "Rights and Refugees" (Edit.17-8); "The Palestinian Right of Return" (41-2):-why refugee-return issue is probably most difficult Israeli-Palestinian issue. Some 3.6m, 50%+of all Palestinians, are refugees registered by UNRWA. They were originally those who were either expelled or fled in 1948 from their homes in what UN recognized as Israel. Most(plus their descendants)still live -many in refugee camps- in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza. None has been compensated; they depend on UNGA resolutions for restitution: Res.194/948 states: "refugees wishing to return to their homes...should be permitted to do so" .Israel does not acknowledge this "right of return" but recognizesneed for substantial compensation(by somebody)and expects refugees to be settled elsewhere(at most .5mmight gradually be absorbed in poor/tiny new Palestinian state).Israel's essential problem is demographic:addition of millions of Palestinians to Israeli population would end any Jewish state. Editor suggests(contradictory)solution lies in mutual acknowledgement of both refugees' right of return to Israel and Israel's right to determine when, and who must be refused on grounds of national security.

The Economist 20 Jan 01 "Natural Disasters: Lessons from El Salvador's Earthquake" (31):-lessons and proposals from preparations before/response to tragedy of 13 Jan. Aimed mainly at Central America butapply to any small, poor countries liable to natural disasters. After Hurricane Mitch(1998)did terrible damage to Honduras/Nicaragua and some to all Central American states, UN reported none had disaster-management plans and" when catastrophe struck, civil-defence bodies were sidelined by politicians. As result, once emergency teams, called in for particular incident, had been disbanded, nobody to apply lessons-learned next time.[Hence, UN said, each country needed] 'permanent state institution, staffed bytrained disaster-management professionals' and armed with mandate for preventive work" .El Salvador's civil-defence agency responded ASAP, but has little say in preventive planning, which " involvesstrengthening laws and enforcing them - hard in states cursed by corruption" . Also, donors shouldsupport permanent disaster-response team for region, and further improved regional coordination.Economist 03 Feb "Catastrophe in Gujarat" (Edit. 22-4); "Earthquakes in India: Worse to Come?" (83):-pitifully soon after above, reaction to even worse tragedy. Again stressed actions(well-enforced building codes; well-studied risk zones; nearby rapid-response teams; planned international aid)that could greatly reduce costs(even in very poor countries)of major shocks in growing urban areas. Unfortunately science warns greatest collisions of tectonic plates on earth, run along mountainous borders of sub-continentso constant seismic stress has created recurring catastrophes.

The Economist 03 Feb 01 "Air Terrorism and International Law: The Long Trail Twisting From Lockerbie" (45-6):-Scottish judges unanimously found Libyan intelligence agent guilty of mass murder of 270 people by exploding bomb in Pan American flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 88. Also offersexcellent summary of precedent-setting international trial, and of US-UK options regarding further action against Qaddafi, including removal of UN sanctions on Libya(Doxey 99 & 00 op.cit.).For US attitude/actions towards Qaddafi/Libya, and Qaddafi's attitude towards US, see combined item: Tanter 98 "Rogue Regimes..." and Viorst 99 "The Colonel..." (op.cit.).Several media reports clarify broader implications of Lockerbie trial. Associated Press "U.N. Chief Releases Letter on Bomb" NYT 25 Aug 00:-describes UK-drafted letter from UNSG to Qaddafi, assuring him trial is purely legal and not manipulated political process.AP "Lockerbie Verdict Expected..." NYT 30 Jan 01:-summarizes unusual structure/course of trial. Donald G.McNeil Jr. "Libyan Convicted in Lockerbie Trial" NYT 31 Jan 01:-reports verdict(one defendant found guilty of mass murder, while co-defendant freed for lack of proof),and legal rationale behind it. David Johnston "News Analysis: Courts Are a Limited Anti-Terror Weapon" NYT 01 Feb 01:-comments on relativeeffectiveness of "criminal law as weapon against horrific act of international terror." Greatest limit in case was inability to punish those viewed by many as really responsible: Qaddafi's regime. Some experts argue such national security threats should be dealt with by military force(e.g.Tripoli, Sudan strikes).AP "Gadhafi Fails on Lockerbie Evidence" ;Reuters "Qaddafi Defies West Over Lockerbie Bombing" NYT 05 Feb 01:-both report on Qaddafi's attempt in long speech/press conference to make good his promise to reveal at that time