Virginia D. Abernethy, Population Politics: The Choices that Shape Our Future(New York: Insight Books 93):-an influential source, frequently cited for its study of human incentives. It takes now widely-held view that developing an informed motivation to lower fertility rates(e.g. perception of limited resources)must often precede active use of contraceptives. It also makes radical proposal: total US immigration ban.[In fact, current migration from poor to rich countries barely affects demographic pressures or trends, although short-distance, large-scale movements (such as from Bangladesh to Assam)can have local impact.] G. Pascal Zachary, "An Unconventional Academic Sounds Population Alarm" in Wall Street Journal 31 Jul 98, reports that Abernethy opposed most aid to poor countries since, contrary to "demographic transition" theory(that fertility falls as living standards rise), prosperity increases fertility.[Most experts probably feel that while" transition" is much more complex than once thought, perceiving its complete reversalwould:(1)confuse some immediate, with major long-term, effects of rising living standards (low OECD fertility);(2)ignore many other factors, e.g. female education; women's choice; cultural imperatives.]

Diane Ackerman et al., The New Age of Discovery: A Celebration of Mankind's Exploration of the Unknown (Toronto: Time Canada 97):-although"popular"in format, purpose/content are serious: 17 thoughtful essays contributed by leading scientists and academics. Aim is to survey where scientific discovery now stands, and where it is taking us. Many topics are or will be global and/or UN issues: health/ageing; defence against asteroids; DNA/climatic discoveries and implications; "Third World" -relevant technology; genderdifferences; care of global commons and indigenous peoples; extraterrestrial life; new energy forms; ethical computing; "homogenization" of world; special global challenges. Relatively easy place to start looking at trends and prospects- particularly if your background not in science. Survey is just example ofvaluable collections of what are in fact 21st-Century global issues, put together by good general periodicals(dailies, weeklies, monthlies),often to mark occasions like anniversaries or new years/decades. Those fitting our purposes here would be forward-looking, deal with subjects global in scope or importance, be written by top impartial authorities, and preferably offer reading lists.

James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons and the Front Line Is Everywhere(New York: Simon & Schuster 98):-not primarily about technology, but rather warning about (un)anticipated effects of accelerating revolution in many-faceted field of information warfare(IW). Uses many original sources to explain fundamental changes in nature of combat. Weapons can be disabling, non-lethal, long-distance, unmanned, multi-use, minuscule... Wars may be battlefield-less, electronic, adversary-ambiguous, instantaneous... Intelligence and surveillance will be pervasive/often decisive. At same time, vast technical lead -and complexity - of rich countries' forces/societies also creates immense (cyber)vulnerability. In global North-South terms, implies economically-advanced states will prefer to fight by exploiting their technology, while any less-advanced opponents will tend to concentrate their attackson that technology's weak points.[World community/UN will find "violent conflict" (formal inter-state war now very rare)not only creates multiple new diplomatic/legal issues(time/space limits, sanctions, intervention, lethality, causes, costs, crimes)but, most difficult of all, is increasingly ambiguous, in terms of "participants" (both initiators and intended enemies/victims), location(e.g. if electronic, disease-inducing, and/or delayed-action), aims(already true of terrorism), even very existence(e.g. cyber-, resource- or bio-conflict; deliberate/ accidental?).One major consequence then is that entire concept of conflict-resolution transformed.]

Patricia Adams and Grainne Ryder, "China's Great Leap Backward: Uneconomic and Outdated, the Three Gorges Dam Will Stunt China's Economic Growth" International Journal Vol.LIII/No.4(Autumn 98):-fear of global warming produced above all by fossil fuels' carbon dioxide caused real concern about China's vast impact as world's largest producer/consumer of coal, worst fossil fuel CO2 source. Yet large hydroelectric dams also produced great environmental damage, and Three Gorges Dam will be largest in world. Hence article argues Dam hydro-generation should be replaced by "either combined cycle gas turbines or cogeneration [which] would reduce CO2 emissions by more than 60%" (694).(Explanation in article.)Unfortunately, case is made with such CO2 focus that critical purpose of dam "flood-control" is ignored. See massive global threat from flooding: Economist 11 Mar 00(op.cit.).

Agence France-Presse"U.N. Chief Blames Rich Nations for Failure of Trade Talks"New York Times 13 Feb 00:-UNSG Kofi Annan told Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD) in Bangkok that breakdown of WTO meeting in Seattle was not result of violent NGO protests, but was the fault of world's most powerful nations which "could not agree on their priorities" . While the developing nations playedmore "active and united role" than ever before, industrial powers" bickered among themselves" and showed "they did not have will to carry out reforms in[trade]rules" . Annan said barriers were excluding LDCs from benefits of global trade, and called for a "Global New Deal" to "spread the advantages of freer flow of goods, jobs and capital among all countries...open to investment" . Seth Mydans"U.N. Trade Meeting Brings Rich and Poor No Closer"NYT 20 Feb 00:-UNCTAD "ended with no real narrowing of differences" that split WTO meeting, thus confirming UNSG's pessimism. There were only " general expressions of hope that rich and poor nations might eventually agree on formula that would allow them to share benefits of global trade." To this end, LDCs had again demanded fully opened markets for their products, and objected to standards of environmental and worker protection that simply delayed their development. Algeria claimed Africa is being crushed - indeed "rubbed out" - by new world trade order. The Economist 13 May 00"The WTO: Merry-Go-Round" (75-6):-provides useful update on WTO-related issues since WTO/UNCTAD meetings, andconfirms both Annan's complaints: US and EU still "bickering" , and LDCs still getting raw deal. For another, more optimistic/forward-looking update on Transatlantic bickering:Economist 30 Sep 00"Trade: Boom...".

Shardul Agrawala and Steinar Andresen, "Indispensability and Indefensibility? The United States in the Climate Treaty Negotiations" Global Governance Vol.5/No.4(Oct/Dec 99):-insightful essay not only relevant to most critical environmental issue facing global community(Grubb 99 op.cit); helps explain both sudden changes or galling intransigence in US positions on variety multilateral questions(for UN: Lyons op.cit.).Recalls major US environment statements, policies and positions, and shows them surprisingly erratic even under same president. Then identifies powers and interests of many forces and often key individuals within US administrations, Congress, industry, public opinion and dedicated pressure groupsthat influenced environmental policy, and shows how their interplay affected or determined volatile orstubborn US position on climate change at various times.

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: COST-PATENT DILEMMA; GLOBAL ASSISTANCE

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: INFECTION RATES AND SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND CHALLENGES

AIDS: THIRD WORLD: POLICY ISSUES AND CONFERENCES

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is viewed increasingly as the most serious challenge facing global society. Almost all material on this subject is found in the media and is included in RECENT DEVELOPMENTS. To reach all media selections relating to AIDS, click on AIDS Third World.

John B. Alexander, Future War: Non-Lethal Weapons in Twenty-First Century Warfare(New York: St. Martin's Press 99):-excellent study of immense potential of non-lethal weapons, and impact of global trends on aims of security. Assumed US/NATO must(via UN)be world police force. Emerging threats for armed forces/police are: powerful criminal/terrorist organizations, together with transnational/religiousbodies/groups seeing themselves as politically, economically or socially deprived. Wide range of non-lethal weaponry includes acoustic, biological, chemical, electromagnetic weapons, physical restraints, low-impact projectiles, information warfare. Useful scenarios: peace support(UN)operations; technologicalsanctions; strategic paralysis; hostages or barricades. Issues addressed: practical limitations, strategicimplications, moral opposition, legal considerations, and constraints on "winning" .

Chadwick F. Alger, edit. The Future of the United Nations System: Potential for the Twenty-First Century(New York: United Nation Univ. Press 98):-implies, in Introduction and writers' biographies, itconcentrates on peace research. While most of dozen chapters bring that subject in at end of their main text, this concern does not distort generally excellent historical summaries of major areas of UN activity, norobjective identification of problems/reform proposals. Writers expert so usually offer unbiased/accurate snapshots of where UN stands now; how it got there; where it is probably going. Chapters essentially deal with: disarmament, "tough" intervention, peacekeeping, work with NGOs; internal conflicts; human rights;North-South economics; women's rights; refugees; environment; communications; peace education. Except for last, all are summarized.

Chris Anderson, "The Young(stressing Youth and Age)" The Economist 23 Dec 00(Survey 1-16):-explorescauses/ elements/global impact of major social trend, strong in North America, spreading through advanced/emerging societies and already changing poorer countries(Japan, Germany, China)." About...growing influence of young adults in world, and especially working world...thanks to convergence of forces that play to youth's strength -from technology to...pace of change to...tearing down of traditional...order.[T]hey are...first young who are both in position to change world, and are actually doing so.[Y]oung people increasingly make own environment, thanks to shift in power that gives them opportunity, responsibility and tools once reserved for their elders" .Rapid, relentless pace ofchange(technological/social)favours young, since they learn/relearn faster/easier/can afford to risk more to try new things(including jobs).In organizations, hierarchies of mature giving way to meritocracies in order to compete/ survive, initiate/adjust to change, and as knowledge/skill/even experience needs constant updating/replacement. Youth: welcome change; think flexibly/technologically; exploit(mobile)skills; riskfutures; prefer opportunity to wealth/ security; demand/deserve respect. "Youth and Government" in issue(61-2)reports youth's growing role/impact in decision-making.[ "W]ell-prepared input can be more influential than[votes - point often made about NGOs' power being in knowledge]Young people...are not only leaders of tomorrow; increasingly they are leaders of today" .

Kofi A. Annan, Renewal Amid Transition: Annual Report on the Work of the Organization, 1997, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations (New York: UN DPI/1927 or Sales No.: E.97.I.23 - Sep 1997). - distinctly shorter (70pp) than most Annual Reports, Annan's first covers only some highlights of various UN activities from mid-1996 to mid-1997. It complements his "Programme for Reform" by reporting on a number of early changes. Tessitore (op. cit.) gives much more detail on each subject covered by Annan, but the S-G's Report offers a quick overview that UNA-USA can then amplify selectively. For general information on Annual Reports: UN Secretary-General (op. cit.).

Kofi A. Annan, "The Quiet Revolution" Global Governance Vol.4/No.2(Apr-Jun 98):-fine updating of Secretary-General worldview and priorities. Globalization is "most rapid reconfiguration of...economic geography ever" so UN must exploit"mutual benefits of change while managing adverse effects...UN's past pattern of incremental adaptations will not suffice." Must do what "it does better than others" ;collaborate more with international bodies/civil society: NGOs /business/academe. UN aim"strategic resource deployment, unity ofpurpose, coherence of effort/agility/flexibility" .

Kofi A. Annan, Partnerships for Global Community: Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1998, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations (New York: UN DPI/1997 or Sales No: E.99.1.3 - Sep 1998). - Annan's second Annual Report generally follows the format of his first in being short (82pp) and covering only some highlights of UN activities. It is however structured in a more standard manner, fairly closely following the subject matter of UNGA Main Committees: Achieving peace/security; Cooperating for development; Meeting humanitarian commitments; Engaging with globalization; Strengthening the international legal order; Managing change. The tone is more upbeat, with considerable emphasis on what reforms have been (not, have to be) undertaken. With the S-G an experienced manager himself, space allocated to improved administration is expanded (the Office of Legal Affairs gets almost three pages). At the other extreme, the critical work of the Population Fund is given 16 lines, with no mention of family planning! With the irreplaceable world body's collapse still credibly threatened by a few unrepresentative politicians in a single member state, perhaps some catering to their prejudice was necessary.

Kofi A. Annan, "Preventing War and Disaster: A Growing Global Challenge" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 1999, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2058; Sales No: E.99.1.29-Sep 1999):-after a convincing plea for more cost-saving global efforts to foresee, prevent, or reduce human and natural crises, Annan summarizes all major UN activities over year to Sep 99, and selected plans and problems(in 130pp). Chapters address: peace and security; development; humanitarian issues; globalization; legal order; human rights; administration. Overall impression: hard-won progress implementing UN obligations/reforms/savings are frustrated by Members' selfishness/lack of political will/financial irresponsibility. Summaries are made of the 1999 Report's comments on all major topics(op.cit.).

Kofi A. Annan, "UN Committed to Ensuring World Water Security and 'Blue Revolution', Says Secretary-General, in Message to World Water Forum" in UN Press Release SG/SM/7334 21 Mar 00:-urgent global problem is finding huge additional quantities of affordable water to meet increasing needs of population growth/concentration and rising agricultural/industrial demand, and to make up for global pollution andfalling water tables(see Worldwatch Institute: Lester R. Brown, "Water: Emerging Constraint on Growth" (123-5)in State of the World(1999)op.cit.). Hence "world's impending water crisis" was theme of UNSG's text. He reported that "every year, more than 5 million people[over 50% children]die as a result of poor water quality - 10 times the number killed in wars...[W]ithin 25 years two out of every three people on Earth will live in water-stressed conditions. Indeed, the declining state of the world's freshwater resources, in terms of quantity and quality, may well prove to be the dominant issue on the environment and development agenda of the new century" . UN Newservice 21 Mar 00: Klaus Toepfer, UNEP head, at the Forum: "The battle for the conservation of water will be won or lost in the mega-cities of the world" .[Technology can help:]Douglas Jehl, "Tampa Bay Looks to the Sea to Quench Its Thirst" in New York Times12 Mar 00:-US appears to be just reaching the stage when many high-density areas need, or find it economic, to desalinate sea or brackish water. Tampa Bay(2.3m residents)will be the first large urban areato do so, planning the largest(25m gallons/day)desalinization plant outside Saudi Arabia(whose economics are totally different). As of writing, five states(cheaply)desalinate brackish water, while two cities which built sea-water plants decades ago, now use them for backup due to cost. But Tampa cost estimates have fallen from $4-6 per 1,000 gallons to $2.08. With several cities planning desalinization, and many more facing the need, economics/technology may now produce a global cost breakthrough. [World FDI and ODA may soon include large expenditures on desalination.]

Kofi A. Annan, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" Millennium Report of S-G presented 03 Apr 00 to UNGA in preparation for the Millennial Summit 6-8 Sep 00:- Executive Summary, Key Proposals, Full Report, Fact Sheet, Press Releases, SG UNGA Statement, SG Press Conference Transcript: all under http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/. Annan said report "attempts to present a comprehensive account of the challenges facing humanity as we enter the twenty-first century, combined with a plan of action for dealing with them" . Section titles with(very tight)summaries: I. New Century, New Challenges: New millennium-Summit offers unique occasion to reflect on world's common destiny, since interconnected as never before. UN can help meet challenges ahead and be reshaped now to make a real difference. II. Globalization and Governance: Globalization unequally distributed and lacks shared social objectives. More people(plus crime, drugs, terrorism, pollution, disease, weapons, migrants, refugees)interact across frontiers faster, and feel more threatened/ horrified by distant events/conditions. New technologies enable common understanding/action, so must learn to govern better, together. States need mutual help via common institutions, from non-state actors, and informal policy networks. The unequal/unstable/unsustainable world development model needs agreed remedial measures. III. Freedom From Want: .5b live on less than $1 a day, so must reduce extreme poverty by half before 2015. Priorities: sustained growth; all children complete primary school by 2015 and all youth finddecent work; by 2010 HIV infection rate in young cut by 25% -one result of more LDC-relevant research; improve lives of 100m slum dwellers by 2020; experts/charities to tackle low agricultural productivity in Africa, as governments give higher priority to poverty; maximize LDC access to infonets to speed development; rich states open markets to LDCs, offer more debt relief, and focus increased ODA. IV.Freedom From Fear: internal wars killed 5m in decade; WMD remain threat; security protects people, not territory. Tackle conflict by: prevention, more balanced development, human/minority rights, exposingweapons/money/resource smuggling; protect the vulnerable by enforcing international/human rights law; using UNSC for armed intervention when rights and lives are massively violated; consider peace operations review panel proposals; target "smart" sanctions more; improve control of small arms transfers, and reduce dangers of existing nuclear arms and proliferation. V. Sustaining Our Future: Most planet-sustaining actions are too few, little, and late. Before 2002, must: cope with climate change: reduce emissions 60% by efficient/renewable energy, implementing Kyoto Protocol; meet water crisis: accept 2015 target of 50% reduction in those without safe/affordable water, raise agricultural productivity per unit of water, improve management; defend soil: biotechnology may be best hope for sufficient food production, so debate must be resolved globally; preserve forests, fisheries, biodiversity with joint government/private sector conservation; build new stewardship ethic: public education, integration ofenvironment into economic policy, regulations/ incentives, accurate scientific data. VI. Renewing the UN: Must find consensus solutions among governments, private sector, NGOs, and IOs, with UN as catalyst. Build on core UN strengths(norm-setting, global actions, humanitarian trust)to press rule of law, adapt UNSC, and work with NGOs, private sector and foundations, including through informal policy networks; work with industry to exploit information technology; improve UN management throughstructural/agenda reform, priority-setting, more flexibility, results-based budgeting. VII. For Consideration by the Summit: Act on basis of shared Charter values: Freedom, Equity and Solidarity, Tolerance, Non-Violence, Respect for Nature, Shared Responsibility. Adopt resolutions drawn from Report as evidence.Reviews: Barbara Crossette, "Annan Urges High-Tech Aid for Poor Countries" in New York Times 4 Apr;The Economist 8 Apr: "Kofi Annan's Words to the World: Bouncing to a Fairer World" (51).

Kofi A. Annan, "Common Destiny, New Resolve" , Annual Report on the Work of the Organization 2000, by the Secretary-General of the United Nations(New York: DPI/2153;Sales No.E.00.1.22-Sep 99):-UNSG begins by noting report to Millennium Summit, "We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century" (op.cit.), includes his assessment of humanity's progress and challenges at turn of millennium,and suggests ways in which international community can work together to" better lives of people still left behind" .Introduction, summarizing 130-page report on major UN activities over year to Sep 00, highlights: (1)Demands on UN humanitarian agencies far exceeded worst-case predictions; (2)Living standards in sub-Saharan Africa still declining; (3)AIDS pandemic spreads with frightening rapidity; needs stronger commitment to action; (4)Three new peace missions were created, straining UNHQ resources. (5)Reviewsanalysed UN failures in Srebrenica and Rwanda; offered recommendations. (6) controversial economicbenefits of globalization must be more inclusive/equitably shared. (7)Must be cooperative management ofglobal economic affairs through more effective governance. (8)Informal global policy networks involving governments, international institutions, civil society and private sector have great potential. Chapters: Peace/Security; Humanitarian Commitments; Development; International Legal Order/Human Rights; UNManagement.

Kofi A. Annan, Report of the [UN] Secretary-General to the Preparatory Committee for the High-level International Intergovernmental Event on Financing for Development:-this collaborative effort(officially UNGA Document A/AC.257/12)runs to 64 pages, makes 87 recommendations, and was commissioned bythe Millennium Summit to help focus discussion at a Mar 2002 global meeting on development financing(still an" event" since it awaits an official title). Involved directly in the report's preparation were: many parts of the UN proper(particularly DESA, UNCTAD and UNDP); UN Agencies; the Bank, Fund and WTO; theregional development banks; OECD; the Financial Stability Forum; many governments/otherstakeholders(arranged by the UN regional commissions); the business community; and civil society organizations. Hence it reflects extremely varied, expert and authoritative views - significant, since some proposals are quite radical, even if presented solely on the responsibility of the UN Secretariat. The report consists of an Introduction and six chapters, the latter perhaps being the agenda items of the "event" : I. Mobilizing domestic financial resources for development; II. Mobilizing international resources for development: foreign direct investment and other private flows; III. Trade; IV. Increasing international financial cooperation for development through, inter alia, official development assistance; V. Debt; VI. Addressing systemic issues: enhancing coherence and consistency of the international monetary, financial and trading systems in support of development. For highlights, see UN Press Release DEV/2275at: http://www.un.org/News/Press /docs/2001/ dev2275.htm. The complete text(which explains all acronyms!)can also be downloaded from the Web: http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.htm orhttp://www.un.org/esa/ffd/aac257-12E.pdf. For three articles about the Report(highlighting the dirty bits)see: Christopher S. Wren, "U.N. Report Proposes Steps to Fight Global Poverty" in New York Times 30 Jan 01;Reuters, "Annan Offers Poor Nations 87 Ways to Lure Funds" NYT 30 Jan; Wren, "The U.N. Offers 87 Remedies to Help Poor Nations Develop" NYT 04 Feb. The UNSG's opening speech at the subsequentPrepcom meeting is reported in: Reuters "Annan: Poor Nations Must Set Development Priorities" NYT 12 Feb. It describes his theme as: LDCs "should play a greater role in setting policy and priorities in thefinancing of global development" and cease to be "decided in clubs where only rich countries have real influence" . This issue is of course a perennial one at the UN, where the contribution-weighted voting in Bretton Woods bodies is seen as "grossly unfair" and "neo-colonialist" by aid recipients, whose very survival may be at stake, but "absolutely essential" by the investment-oriented donors, who feel" shareholders" have natural rights to determine where and how their own money is spent. Annan aims to increase the relative role of" one-country-one-vote" UN fora(UNGA; ECOSOC)in making broad global development policies and priorities. He also is very concerned to make foreign investment in LDCs larger and less volatile as ODA continues its decline. Advising him is a high-level panel(Zedillo, Rubin, Delors...).

"Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism.

Associated Press, "Earth is Menaced by Fewer Killer Asteroids Than Previously Thought" in New York Times 12 Jan 00:- article deals with a real and major danger from space, not only to entire cities but to all life on earth, that is far from infinitesimal. Scientists have been estimating that 1-2,000 mountain-sized asteroids periodically cross the earth's orbit. This number produces about a 1% chance of one hitting the earth per millennium. Since asteroids are lumps of rock, iron and other material believed left over from the formation of the solar system, and those being counted have diameters between two-thirds of a mile to six miles, they are big enough to "wreak global disaster" . NASA has just lowered the estimated numberof such killers to about 700, or by half. New technology may find 90% within the next 20 years, but there are also lots of smaller asteroids able to destroy cities. Britain has just set up a risk assessment committee. AP, "Experts Mull Asteroid Risk" in NYT 18 Sep 00:-the committee mentioned above is reported to have urged the British government to seek international partners to fund a powerful new telescopeto be stationed in the southern hemisphere and governments should launch joint studies to assess how to destroy an object on a collision course with the planet. The committee estimated that a "wide object" crashes into our planet every 10,000 years with the force of a 100-megaton nuclear bomb. Government reacted:" it's sensible to put just a little[money]into making certain we know if there is a danger of an object hitting our very fragile planet" .

Associated Press "Nations Vow to Fight Urban Blight" New York Times 09 Jun 01:-results of five-year-review of progress in meeting UN Habitat Agenda, agreed upon at 96 global summit on urban issues in Istanbul. New York review conference produced UN Declaration on Cities and Other Human Settlements in the New Millennium which reaffirmed commitment to Agenda principles regarding "adequate housing for all and sustainable development of world's cities" -no easy task since many countries" openly admit they have made little progress since Istanbul meeting. More than 1b...still lack adequate housing[out of 3b(50%)global urban population, and since f]ast-growing slums are common on outskirts of Asian, Africa and Latin American cities" .Textual crises overcome involved Palestinian proposal to criticize Israel, and US refusal to reaffirm adequate housing as "human right" .

Associated Press"Maritime Authorities OK Tracking Measure"New York Times 19 May 06:-"Maritime authorities have agreed upon new legislation that will allow for long-range tracking of merchant ships - a key measure in tackling the threat of seaborne terrorist attacks, the UN International Maritime Organization said [19 May]. A total of 166 countries have agreed to the new rules for merchant vessels, which would also allow countries to conduct surveillance on vessels suspected of carrying illicit cargo.Organization said signatory governments had provisionally agreed to the changes in the Safety of Life at Sea convention... 'Ships will be required to transmit their identity, location and date and time of theirposition to be tracked by satellite', said UN shipping agency's external relations officer... New legislation will mean a ship's position can be identified up to 1,000 nautical miles from shore. Current systems arelimited to a range of a few hundred nautical miles... Merchant vessels trading in international waters willneed to switch to new long-range system by Jan 08, offering maritime authorities a system similar tothat used by air traffic controllers";

Associated Press "Annan Paints Grim Picture to Assembly"New York Times 19 Sep 06:-"Addressing world leaders for last time as UNSG, Kofi Annan painted a grim picture of an unjust world economy, global disorder, widespread contempt for human rights, and appealed for nations/peoples to truly unite. As theannual UN General Assembly [UNGA] ministerial meeting got under way, 192 UN member states facedambitious agenda including trying to promote Mideast peace, curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, get UN peacekeepers into conflict-wracked Darfur, promote democracy... Annan, whose second five-year term ends 31 Dec 06, said the past decade has seen progress in development, security, rule of law - the threegreat challenges he said humanity faced in first address to UNGA in 97. But UNSG said too many still exposed to brutal conflict, and fear of terrorism has increased clash of civilizations/religions. Terrorismbeing used as pretext to limit or abolish human rights, and globalization risks driving richer and poorer apart, he said. 'Events of last 10 years have not resolved, but sharpened, three great challenges - unjust world economy, world disorder, and widespread contempt for human rights and rule of law', Annan said.'As result, we face world whose divisions threaten very notion of an international community, upon which this institution stands. I remain convinced that only answer to this divided world must be a truly United Nations' , he said. In annual report, UNSG touched on some of most difficult issues confronting leaders... [Arab-Israeli conflict; Iraq; Afghanistan; Sudan/Darfur]. 'Together we have pushed some big rocks to top of the mountain, even if others have slipped from our grasp and rolled back. But this mountain... is best place on earth to be',UNSG said.'I yield my place to others with an obstinate feeling of hope for our common future', Annan said. [UNGA] loud applause/rose in sustained standing ovation".

Séverine Autesserre"The Trouble With Congo: How Local Disputes Fuel Regional Conflict"(94-110)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.3(May/Jun 08):-official summary:"Although the war in Congo officially ended in 2003, 2m people have died since. One of the reasons is that the international community's peacekeeping efforts there have not focused on the local grievances in eastern Congo, especially those over land, that are fueling much of the broader tensions. Until they do, the nation's security and that of wider Great Lakes region will remain uncertain". Emphasized extracts:"Congo is now the stage for the largest humanitarian disaster in the world - far larger than the crisis in Sudan. [I]nternational actors must tackle situation in Congo from the ground up". Autesserre is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ.

Robert Baer"THE FP MEMO:- Wanted: Spies Unlike Us"Foreign Policy No.147(Mar/Apr 05):-former CIA case officer 1976-97, and author -See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism(New York: Crown Publishers 02), drafts MEMORANDUM from himself to Porter Goss, U.S. Director of Central Intelligence, entitled"Getting the CIA Back in the Game". He writes"CIA is clearly broken, and you have a chance to fix it... Reform is needed across the board, but the Directorate of Operations(DO) should beyour first target. Its mission - recruiting and running foreign spies - should be the agency's core function.Give DO the tools it needs, and intelligence analysis will take care of itself...Here are my suggestions(forming remainder of the MEMO under following headings): Reform the Promotion System; Know Your Sources;Recruit on College Campuses; Lower the Retirement Age; Stop Relying on Foreign Governments;Change the Security Clearance System; Recruit on the Dark Side. [I would myself disagree with the proposed total lack of cooperation with the world's 200 or so "Foreign Governments". Even the US could not gain unilaterally all the global information it is going to need. The global danger of all types/sources of terrorism in the world can only be constrained if all governments ideally/ostensibly work together.Genuine intelligence activity abroad could/would lie on top of that.]

Ronald Bailey, "A Clean and Comfortable Planet Without Global Regulation" (171-9)and Gareth Porter, "Why We Need the United Nations to Protect the Global Environment" (181-9)in Ted Galen Carpenter, edit.,Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention(Washington: Cato Institute, 1997):- for book annotation, see Carpenter(op.cit.) Contrasting articles disagree less over reality of environmentalproblems than over whether UN/ states should do anything about them. Bailey argues UN programs wouldcost money and thus slow wealth-creation - the automatic solution. Similarly, if left alone, world farmerscould produce as much as US corn-growers do today -and feed 10 billion people at present US calorie levels on half the present cropland(174). Global warming is unlikely (UN estimates biased)but if world economy left alone to get rich, costs can be borne. Porter summarizes consensus views on climate change, ozonedepletion, ocean pollution, fish depletion, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and argues they can be addressedonly by global cooperation. He outlines diverse views that impede UN policy/ action, but concludes that the UN is indispensable for progress.

Carter F.Bales & Richard D.Duke "Containing Climate Change: An Opportunity for U.S. Leadership"(78-89) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.5(Sep/Oct 08):-official summary:"Greenhouse gas emissions are harming the environment and the global economy. After cleaning up its own act, US must enlist developing countries in a new climate-control regime that promises to dramatically reduce emissions and encourage energy efficiency and the development of clean-energy technology". Emphasized extracts:"A cap-and-invest strategy would allow US to develop a clean economy at little or no net cost". "Time has come for US to lead the fight against global warming at home and abroad". Bales: Managing Partner Emeritus of Wicks Group of Companies. Duke: Director of Natural Resources Defense Council's Center for Market Innovation.

Scott Barrett Why Cooperate? The Incentive to Supply Global Public Goods (New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-surprisingly well written -considering the complexity of issues- in: (1) describing the existing global challenges (e.g. climate change, nuclear proliferation, worldwide pandemics) and those that threaten the entire planet (e.g. terrorism, physical/chemical/biological instabilities, asteroids); and (2) reporting on how such problems have been successfully or badly handled in the past, the rationales involved, and the various cooperations that would/might work best in future. Barrett's "threat" approach differs from my item "EARTH MUST COOPERATE...", mainly in stressing "Global Public Goods" actions of the recent past (e.g.often successful United Nations; wonderful "Montreal Protocol" ozone treaty), whereas my gloomy and concentrated "page" is designed almost solely to identify: (1) the exploding scale/variety of global threats; (2) the human tendencies that have created/will create them; and (3) why we must change a number of very old human views/feelings. Both press broader global diplomacy as essential tool. Most chapters focus on distinct types of issue/solution. [Even a study of brief bit(s) of 275p would be valuable.] Titles: Incentives to Supply Global Public Goods [GPG]; (1) Single Best Efforts: GPG that Can Be Supplied Unilaterally or Minilaterally; (2) Weakest Links: GPG that Depend on States that Contribute the Least; (3) Aggregate Efforts: GPG that Depend on Combined Efforts of All States; (4) Financing and Burden Sharing: Paying for GPG; (5) Mutual Restraint: Agreeing What States Ought Not to Do; (6) Coordination and Global Standards: Agreeing What States Ought to Do; (7) Development: Do GPG Help Poor States?; Conclusion: Institutions for Supply of GPG.

Felicity Barringer "Nations Ranked as Protectors of the Environment"New York Times 24 Jan 05:-2005 has produced"index of environmental sustainability, which ranks nations on their success at such tasks asmaintaining/improving air and water quality, maximizing biodiversity and cooperating with other countries on environmental problems...Report is based on 75 measures, including rate at which children die from respiratory diseases, fertility rates[of what?], water quality, overfishing, emission of heat-trapping gases, and export of sodium dioxide, crucial component of acid rain. Report also cited statisticallysignificant correlation between high-ranking countries and[those]with open political systems/effective governments."Top ten out of 146 countries studied were(in their order):Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden, Iceland, Canada, Switzerland, Guyana, Argentina, Austria. US ranked 45th, behind such countries as Japan, Botswana, Bhutan, most of Western Europe. Lowest-ranking country was North Korea; others near bottom were Haiti, Taiwan, Iraq, Kuwait. Index is second produced in collaboration with World Economic Forum(Davos, Switzerland).

Jean-Francois Bayart, Stephen Ellis & Beatrice Hibou The Criminalization of the State in Africa (Oxford: James Currey 99):-inevitably researched unscientifically, seeks to explain multiple political-economic crises of Africa(i.e.south of Sahara)as whole. "African specialists" after lamenting demography/stagnation-acerbated poverty/hyper-urbanization, highlight certain developments: facade of democratic transition/ structural adjustment/other reforms; armed conflicts' continuation or spread; above all, elites' massive involvement in corrupt/criminal activities(drugs/other smuggling; political-financial/other fraud; coercion/ violence). While driven by change, these African reactions show historical influence of approvingaccumulation of power and wealth through devious personal initiative. Thus nationalism, government and law are simply used; their criminalization culturally-rooted.

Barbara Beck, "A Survey of Women and Work: For Better, For Worse" in The Economist 18 Jul 98(1-16):-an excellent economic and social examination of the formal employment of women, including a human-rights-related analysis of why so few are found in the top levels of business. Most information is on OECDcountries - which have the best statistics and seem to lead a global trend. Subjects include: history, e.g. the combined impact of safe contraception and the transformation of labor needs; OECD employment trendsand their reasons; gender variation by job type, pay and unemployment; maternity and paternity leave,daycare, shared child care and housework, career-breaks, taxation and birthrate issues. All are UN issuesnow; its actively trying to improve its own employee gender balance.

Zanny Minton Beddoes"Global Finance: Time for a Redesign?"The Economist 30 Jan 99 (1-18):- excellent SURVEY: (1)identifies perceived and objective problems with generally uncontrolled, if IMF- "cushioned" ,world financial system;(2)describes often radical, mutually incompatible, and/or unfeasible reform plans;(3)offers some more modest but workable proposals. Dangers include certainty of crises if systems are not changed; IMF's "moral-hazard" role not reduced. Reform ideas range from IMF-abolition, through capital controls, to creation of global regulator, central bank, or world currency. Incompatibleobjectives remain: maintaining national sovereignty/ regulating financial markets/benefiting from global capital markets. Proposals:(1)rich states can improve norms of own financial markets;(2)can encourage responsible creditor behaviour;(3)institutions must innovate.

Zanny Minton Beddoes, "From EMU to AMU? The Case for Regional Currencies" (8-13)in Foreign AffairsVol.78/No.4 (Jul/Aug 99):-Washington economics writer for The Economist predicts that by 2030 the world will have two major currency zones, result of regional currency unions. Whole of Europe will use euro, whilewhole Western Hemisphere and possibly parts of Asia will use the dollar. Reason is that: "Regional currencies will prove the best route to reconciling the economic imperatives of increasing international capital mobility with the political realities of the nation-state" (8). More specifically, many emerging economies will have to curb capital flows, so the author argues by examining other options(floating exchange rates, fixed rates, currency boards)that most efficient way is currency union since it makes most credible commitment to stability, acting as "bulwark against protectionism" (13).

Zanny Minton Beddoes, "The International Financial System: Think Again" (16-27)Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-the Economist's Washington economics correspondent argues against, qualifies, or supports numerous widely-held views about a need for new global financial architecture: a global market for capital does not yet exist; most just moves about. Allowing free capital movement in and out of a countrymay stimulate economic growth, if action is not premature. Recent emerging-market crashes are worse, but not more frequent, than before. Their "contagion" is not always irrational. Most crises are caused by weak banking systems, helped by lack of "due diligence" by foreign banks. Most ideas for new "global financial architecture" are ill-advised and/or politically unfeasible. Reforms should not concentrate on capital flows control; at most dissuade short-term flows. A global central bank is unrealistic and imperfect. IMF merits some criticism and "moral hazard" concerns, but bailouts are not to blame for international economiccrises, and few private investors escape lightly. Major lessons have been learned.

Jagdish Bhagwati,"The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars" Foreign AffairsVol.77/No.3(May/Jun 98):-one"prevalent myth is that despite the striking evidence of the inherently crisis-prone nature of freer capital movements, a world of full capital mobility continues to be inevitable and immensely desirable". The author disagrees, arguing that while there is correspondence between free trade in goods and services and free capital mobility, capital flows suffer from "panics and manias". Financial crisesare very costly and cannot be eliminated by global banking system reform. Hence capital mobility needs some restraint. The Economist 23 May 98:"Capital Controversies"(112)supports Bhagwati: capital liberalization must proceed cautiously. For an ostensible counter-view to Bhagwati, see Shailendra J. Anjaria "The Capital Truth: What Works for Commodities Should Work for Cash" Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6 (Nov/Dec 98):-in fact this IMF official's view is also very cautious: there must be a process of gradual adaptation. Without both sound macroeconomic policies and strong, transparent and properly supervised banks, opening up capital flows is dangerous and inadvisable(143). A consensus developing on constrained capital flows?

A.S.Bhalla edit. Globalization, Growth and Marginalization(Ottawa: IDRC 98):-a very valuable study (for those knowing basic economics)of the effects of globalization on LDCs. The term is defined here using several global features: trade growth; FDI and capital flows growth; some globally-run production consumption; trade and investment liberalization; global-scale competition; the loss to national sovereignty; the standardization of values and cultures. The aim is to analyse globalization's impact on: (1) growth and productivity; (2) poverty and inequality; (3) employment. The LDCs are studied by region for both policies and effects. The conclusion is that while every LDC must bend to globalization, its social costs are so great that they must be anticipated. The book includes a good menu of possible research.

Samuel R.Berger"Foreign Policy for a Democratic President"Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3(May/Jun 04):-aimed at those concerned about weaknesses in US foreign policy of Bush regime, and needs/opportunities in modified policies of any Nov 04-elected Democratic(or amended)regime. Most issues discussed of global relevance, and many stress US relations with foreign entities, particularlyNATO/UN/international law. This mentions those of global importance discussed in some detail. US administration's "high-handed style and its gratuitous unilateralism" about its military, economic and cultural aims, embittered even those abroad most likely to embrace US values. New US regime "no moreurgent task than to restore...global moral and political authority, so when we decide to act we canpersuade others to join us. Achieving reversal will require forging new strategic bargain with closest allies...Democratic approach to resolving disputes with Europe over treaties should be pragmatic, focused on improving flawed agreements rather than ripping them up". US policy towards Israel-Palestine conflictmust return with energy/ urgency. Regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq," Bush administration'sunilateralist approach has let allies off hook: given them excuse to shirk these and other global responsibilities. Democratic administration would not be so dismissive of allies on issues that matter to them" since exercises truly international rather than exclusively US. Similar approaches are relevant to spread of weapons of mass destruction(WMD)." Democratic administration should use every tool at disposal to prevent WMD threats from arising before force becomes only option" . Listed issues include Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program with Russia, and "global effort to secure nuclear materials at all such sites" .Others sites described are North Korea and Iran. Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT)might add "new bargain" helping non-nuclear countries develop nuclear energy. Many more issues are brief.

Bruce D.Berkowitz"War Logs On: Girding America for Computer Combat"Foreign Affairs Vol.79/No.3(May/Jun 00) :-reports that attacking an opponent's computer networks(and defending your own)have become matters of interest and concern as natural elements of warfare. Several developments make opportunities/dangers both obvious and irresistible. (1)Computers are now involved in every aspectof world's armed forces - a dependence making them vulnerable, and creating multiple targets. (2)Civiliansociety depends more on computers, too, using networks even more vulnerable than military systems. (3)Modern telecommunications are linking world's computer systems, so any data-processing devicelinked to communications networks is vulnerable. (4)Weapons/ technology usable for computer warfarekeep improving; lasers/microwaves for electronic attack may be replaced by(false?)electronic data. (5)Strategy/tactics are also being improved, to deceive, confound and confuse opponents. Computer warfare must be fully integrated into planning, perhaps years ahead, and involves very complex policyissues concerning targeting, secrecy, oversight, and defense.

Sheri Berman"From the Sun King to Karzai: Lessons for State Building in Afghanistan"(2-9) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.2 (Mar/Apr10):-official summary:"The US's mission in Afghanistan will not be accomplished until a central government exists there that can control the country's territory. History shows that such state building is possible but is not a job for the squeamish, the impatient, or the easily frustrated. Policymakers should look to Louis XIV and the development of France's ancien régime for guidance". Berman: Associate Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia Univ. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on State Building" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/state-building.

Jagdish Bhagwati "Free Trade Today"(Princeton: Princeton Univ Press 02):-while only 140pp long (including Preface and Index), and presented in the form of three Lectures (with multiple footnotes - mainly identifying sources), this famous book is often described as the greatest defense for global free trade ever written. Dustcover claims:"Forcefully, elegantly, and clearly written for the public by one of the foremost economic thinkers of our day [Professor at Columbia Univ. and a special adviser to UN and particularly GATT/WTO], this volume is not merely accessible but essential reading for anyone interested in economic policy orin the world economy". Titles: LECTURE 1: "Confronting Conventional Threats to Free Trade: The Postwar Revolution in the Theory of Commercial Policy"; LECTURE 2: "'Fair Trade', Income Distribution, and Social Agendas: Using Trade Theory to Meet New Challenges"; LECTURE 3: "Getting to Free Trade: Alternative Approaches and Their Theoretical Rationale". While 1 is difficult for those without economic training, 2 and 3 can be easily handled by any who regularly read international affairs. Editor's own summary: "Bhagwati applies critical insights from revolutionary developments in commercial policy theory... to show how the pursuit of social and environmental agendas can be creatively reconciled withthe pursuit of free trade. Indeed, he argues that free trade, by raising living standards, can serve these agendas far better than can a descent into trade sanctions and restrictions. [H]e argues in support of multilateralism and advances a withering critique of recent bilateral and regional free trade agreements". Bhagwati's also famous"In Defense of Globalization"(Oxford Univ 04), offers a 300+pp broader approach.

Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.

Nancy Birdsall "Life Is Unfair: Inequality in the World" Foreign Policy No.111(Summer 98):-ratio of average income of world's richest country to poorest grown from about 9 to 1 around century ago to at least 60 to 1 today; 80% of world's population in states generating only 20% of world income. National-income divide between well-educated elite and vulnerable/unskilled usually both evident/widening. Many causes: history; demography; access; policies(trade/ labour/services/investment).Now technology/computers play key role: information and skills are key assets. Hence essential to provide maximum of education/opportunity; states must use labour, and trade/equal access better. "The real danger...growing inequality may become lightning rod for populist rhetoric and self-defeating isolation" .

Nancy Birdsall & Arvind Subramanian, "Saving Iraq From Its Oil" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-reports on essential poor-country assets that delay democracy. "Oil riches are far from blessing they are often assumed to be. In fact, countries often end up poor precisely because they are oil rich. Oil and mineral wealth can be bad for growth and bad for democracy, since they tend to impede developmentof institutions and values critical to open, market-based economies and political freedom: civil liberties, rule of law, protection of property rights, and political participation" .In both this and Fareed Zakaria The Future of Freedom(73-6)(op.cit.)oil/minerals criticized for "richness" .[In my view, serious fault relates not inherently to basic/processed elements(still essential to global economy; no harm to many states; maybe sole globalization starter locally available), but to any extremely narrow concentration of any local affluence, whatever produced it(slaves? elephant tusks? diamonds?)].Essay is (otherwise)useful in reporting how often developing countries badly run when they have local oil production, and hence all Iraqi oil profits should ideally be passed directly to all Iraqi citizens individually.

Matthew Bishop"Globalisation and Tax: The Mystery of the Vanishing Taxpayer" The Economist 29 Jan 00(1-22) :-this SURVEY claims that "globalization, accelerated by the Internet, is exposing serious flaws in the world's tax systems[even though]the taxman's cut of world income is larger today than it has ever been" . Indeed, OECD believes expedited globalization "might damage tax systems so badly that it could'lead to governments being unable to meet the legitimate demands of citizens for public services' " (5). Two reasons:(1) Easy legal mobility of business, money, individuals(including "into" tax havens), plus Internet's anonymous electronic money and encryption, make it much easier to evade/hide from any jurisdiction's taxes, while "virtual" goods and services moved via Internet are also very hard to tax; (2)Global rivalry for investment, and instant Internet information, may intensify inter-government tax competition. Possiblereaction: global tax-harmonization agreements; more consumption/environment taxes.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to solving African issues and attacking climate change. Here the only material summarized is on Sorting Out Africa. "[P]lagued with problems - debt, disease, conflict, corruption, weak governance - so embedded/widespread that no continent, no matter how prosperous, could tackle on its own.[Details of problems provided.]Should this matter to rest of world?For democratic governments, it should, because it matters to our citizens.[I]t can't be morally right, in world growing more prosperous/healthier,..that one in six African children still die before fifth birthday. Worldwide campaign to make poverty history rightly challenges us to act...We must now all accept utter futility of trying to shut our borders to problems abroad.[Famine/conflict]create conditions for terrorism/fanaticismto take root and spread[to globe.]Prosperous Africa, where people have chance to fulfil their talents, is in all our interests [while] sheer scale of Africa's problems can induce understandable sense ofhopelessness. Governance been improving faster...than in many other areas[,and]Africa Union playing increasing role in settling conflicts.[B]est way to reduce poverty is through economic growth. [This]can be increased by aid[that involves greater donation/effectiveness.] But to help Africa continue progresswe need...coordinated global effort[,including]concerted action to improve opportunities/growth, reduce debt, tackle HIV/malaria/TB, fight corruption, promote peace/security. We also need to tackle trade barriers...I hope G8 will agree not only to plan of action but also to its implementation, a process of monitoring and review. We all need to be accountable for carrying out commitments we have made." Changing Climate is on "twin" item, to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts are similar, but theirmain texts/distributions differ.

Tony Blair "A Year of Huge Challenges" The Economist 01 Jan 05(By Invitation 44-6):-British PM presents two major global initiatives, to urge G8 to organize and substantially pay(Britain: 05 president).Essay makes strong cases in favor since, "with threat from international terrorism and spread of weapons of mass destruction.,. they are most serious problems facing world today [and] problems beyond power of any single country...Solution requires co-ordinated international action, and above all leadershipwhich G8 is uniquely placed to give. The two initiatives relate to attacking climate change and solving African issues. Here the only material summarized is on Changing Climate. "[N]o country will escape its impact. And there can be no doubt...world getting warmer. Temperatures already risen by 0.7C over past century, and ten hottest years on record all occurred since 91[;] fastest rise in temperatures in northern hemisphere for thousand years. This...has meant rise in sea level that, if continues as predicted, will mean hundreds of millions...increasingly at risk from flooding[, plus]other extreme/ increasingly unpredictable weather events such as rainstorms/droughts will also have heavy human/economic cost... Overwhelming view of experts is that climate change, to greater or lesser extent, is man-made and, without action, will get worse...But just as technological progress/human activity have helped cause problem, also within our power to lessen impact/ adapt to change.[N]eed to act now. Delay will only increase seriousness of problems...and economic disruption required to move to more renewable energy and sustainablemanufacturing in future. G8 needs to lead. Kyoto protocol[coming into force]is good news, but... change/ ambition required will be far more[and, with US refusal to sign,]makes measures we could secure through G8 even more vital." US/Britain have national/state legislation and leading investment/research under way, and firms' lower-emission status gaining commercial advantage." We are at stage where role of government/global policy must encourage development/commercial viability of new technologies that have potential to mitigate effects of climate change...G8 can take global lead both inmaking world aware of scale of problem and proposing ways to tackle. G8[also]opportunity to agree onwhat most up-to-date investigations of climate change are telling about the threat[, and]engage actively withother countries' growing energy needs...to ensure they meet needs sustainably and adapt to adverse effects of climate change, which seem inevitable. Sorting Out Africa is on a "twin" item to keep their lengths reasonable. Starts similar but main texts/distributions differ.

Alan S. Blinder, "Eight Steps to a New Financial Order" Foreign Affairs Vol.78/No.5(Sep/Oct 99):-Aim:minimize the frequency, intensity, contagion of financial crises; above all their impact on innocents.Channels: changes in national practice; IMF reform. Advice:(1)Don't fix your exchange rates. They crumble under speculative attack. Rates pegged to hard currency sometimes justified.(2)Borrow less in foreign currency. Especially risky, if short-term. IMF/governments should discourage.(3)Don't rush to open capital markets. Capital inflow controls slow hot money. Supervise.(4)Follow sound macroeconomic-financial policy. Top:bank supervision/accounting standards. (5) Austerity is not always right medicine. In a world short of aggregate demand(and little inflation or need to defend exchange rates)it may have negative effect.(6)Devote more to protecting innocent bystanders. Don't bail out foreign creditors while local poor drown.(7)Agree on orderly debt settlement procedures. Maybe collective action bond contract clauses, mandatory debt rollover.(8)Prevention is better than cure. Contingent credit lines; graduated ratings.

Davis B.Bobrow & Mark A.Boyer"International System Stability and American Decline"International Journal Vol.LIII/No.2(Spring 98):-concludes relative decline of US power "has not led to prolonged across-the-board decrease in international efforts to maintain stability of international system" . "Muted optimism" from recent trends in foreign aid, debt relief, peace-keeping. Reveals crucial roles of states like Canada and institutionalized co-operative arrangements, to success of international initiatives. Meanwhile US policy tending toward an evolving, more specialized and narrowly focused activism in world. All developments direct relevance to UN aims/activities.

Scott G.Borgerson"Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming"(63-77)Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless US leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict". Author is International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations [which publishes Foreign Affairs,] and a former Lieutenant Commander in the US Coast Guard.

Boutros Boutros-Ghali"UN's Future Role: Choices and Challenges Facing the International Community"Oxford International Review Vol. VII/No.2 (Spring 96):-makes same general case as Ibid. but amplifies several points, e.g. not surprisingly, he suggests five sources of secure UN financing - essentially the same ones described elsewhere.

Newton R.Bowles, United Nations: Less is More? A Report on the Fifty-Third General Assembly: September-December 1998(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 99):-author is inter alia UNICEF Senior Advisor on Children/War/closely involved in UNGA/other UN meetings. Excellent report covers not only highlights of 98 UNGA but variety of related UN issues over year e.g. Security Council developments. Topics covered selectively but analytically:Overview; General Debate(tone/highlights);Globalization (dialogue/business-liaison);ODA/FDI Resources;Human Rights/development/UN casualties; Humanitarian Intervention; Security Council(evolution);Conflict Prevention(education); Peacekeeping; Disarmament(new trends);Africa(war/ poverty);Crime(ICC/Tribunals/terrorism/drugs);NGOs/Civil Society; UN Management/Funding.

Newton R.Bowles, United Nations: Hedge or Taels? A Report on the Fifty-Fourth General Assembly: September-December 1999(Report to Group of 78/United Nations Association in Canada)(New York:www.unac.org 00):-valuable impressions of tone/highlights of UNGA Regular Session/related developments, particularly in Security Council. Subject titles(and main points): World in 99(better prospects than 98; praise for UNSG/UNGA President; radical UNSG speech: humanitarian law before sovereignty(text: Annex 1);no UNSC reform but more open; progress on UN human rights and development role); General Debate(main value: networking/stage-setting; main theme: massive human rights violence, armed conflict within states; major points of notable speeches);Human Security Issues(follow-up to "Agenda for Peace" particularly prevention; key: broad "international approach to poverty, human rights and social/economic development" (UNGA President Statement: Annex 2);UNSC renewed activism but no progress on membership or veto; special problems of Africa); HIV/AIDS(stress on Africa where death toll 10 times that of wars; Statement by UNAIDS Executive-Director: Annex 3); Conflict Prevention(improved early-warning/prevention strategies; seek social/economic root causes); Peacekeeping(major forcesin Kosovo, Sierra Leone, East Timor, DR Congo total well over 30,000 in 00(Operations in Annex 4);International Justice(international criminal law fairly controversial compared with civil law; Yugoslavia and Rwanda Tribunals started from scratch but improving; International Criminal Court: 30 Jun deadline will be met; current: new convention on terrorism financing, working on conventions re nuclear terrorism and comprehensive anti-terrorism; planning international conference and transnational crime convention;Disarmament(gloomy: START II stuck in Duma; CTBT refused by Congress; ABM may be weakened or ignored; Conference on Disarmament is paralysed; Special Assembly Session on Disarmament unlikely;NPT review conference also unlikely; Resolution on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space passed, but US resumed anti-missile tests; practical progress on implementing/completing agreements on Chemical and Biological weapons, Landmines, Heavy Weapons register, Small Arms Trade; Development(of LDC needs-investment, markets, debt relief, only ODA is responsibility of UN proper(and aid is declining),but UN-Bank/Fund relations closer; North-South dialogue also less confrontational; "Agenda for Development" stresses good governance/ accountability/participation/social security; UNSG WTO speech(Annex 5)highlights LDCs' need to share globalization; 01 all-issue conference on financing development will bring in all stakeholders); UN Aid(of $50b annual ODA, $5b through UN and $5b World Bank; UN stresses social concerns/human development; UNDP major effort to coordinate multilateral aid better); Business and Labour(UNSG challenged big business at Davos to "Global Compact" tocooperate with UN on human rights/labour standards/environment; positive response from ICC; ICFTUalso undertook to support); Humanitarian Activities(natural disasters cost $500b in 90s; armed conflicts cost $200b in external aid, so probably over $1 trillion overall; UN priority to avoid or mitigate natural disasters or conflicts);Human Rights(most humanitarian law written since WWII; much being added; all aspects of human (mis)behaviour come together at UN under human rights; UNSC adopted strong/comprehensive policy on protecting civilians(Annex 6); in Kosovo/East Timor, UN creating entirecriminal justice and human rights systems; UNHCHR investigating standards in 21 fields worldwide);Women's Advancement(Special UNGA Session on Women(Jun 00)will examine implementation of BeijingConference decisions; UNGA studied new report on role of women in development);Children(Tenth Anniversary of Convention on Rights of Child; UNSC resolution "strongly condemns targeting of children in situations of armed conflict" );Finance and Management(main focus again US budget arrears followed by highly-conditional part-payment; 00-01 biennium budget $2,535m, up a symbolic $3m; staff managementstill slow/cumbersome; excellent final report of 5-year "Internal Oversight" (quoted));Civil Societies(getsmore into basic issues of development-globalization; UNSG for tripartite "Global Compact" :UN-business-civil society);(Annex 7:Current Membership of UN Organs).

John Brademas & Fritz Heimann "Tackling International Corruption: No Longer Taboo" Foreign AffairsVol.77/No.5 (Sep/Oct 98)(17-22):-two members of influential anti-corruption organization, Transparency International, report on activities underway globally to control governmental/private corruption. Progress results from the convergence of several trends: increased openness of government processes, greater media freedom, and more independent judiciaries, plus an awareness that corruption impedes both democracy and economic development. Recent multilateral events: 1997 Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials; 1996 ICC Rules of Conduct for business; new World Bank active concern with issue(op.cit).

Keith Bradsher & David Barboza "The Energy Challenge: Clouds From Chinese Coal Cast a Long Shadow"NYT 11 Jun 06:-particularly excellent/worrying 9-page report on one of the world's worst activities/killers."One of China's lesser-known exports is dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants... The cooling effect from the sulfur [dioxide byproduct] is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will lastfor decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually... deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say... Already, China uses more coal than US, EU and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14% in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another [major] coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China... To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants - and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030... The difference from most wealthy countries is that China depends overwhelmingly on coal. And using coal to produce electricity and run factories generates more global-warming gases and lung-damaging pollutants than relying on oil or gas... China knows it has to do something about its dependence on [pollution-heavy] coal".

Christopher Bright, "Invasive Species: Pathogens of Globalization" in Foreign Policy No.116(Fall 1999):-this essay summarizes Life Out of Bounds: Bioinvasion in a Borderless World(New York: W.W.Norton & Co., 1998). Bright claims: "World trade has become the primary driver of one of the most dangerous and least visible forms of environmental decline: thousands of foreign, invasive species are hitch-hiking through the global trading network aboard ships, planes, and railroad cars...This' biological pollution'is degrading ecosystems, threatening public health, and costing billions" (50). Counter-policies largely ineffective, control mechanisms(UN?)relatively undeveloped, global integration makes the situation ever worse. Bright offersmuch information: animal, plant, insect, pathogen species; means of transport; various costs. His agenda:control ballast release(IMO); fix Sanitary/Phytosanitary Measures act(WTO); build global database(UN?).

William J. Broad, "Giant Leap for Private Industry: Spies in Space" New York Times 13 Oct 99:-described as "one of most significant developments in history of space age" with potential to be "revolutionary" ,Space Imaging Inc., private company owned by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, recently exhibited photograph, taken by Eastman Kodak camera and telescope system, from its own satelliteorbiting at 400 miles that shows details only meter in size. Hailed as world's first private spy satellite,image sharpness reportedly rivals acts of military spy satellites. Pentagon expected to be main customer: such photos can aid detection of countries trying to set off underground nuclear explosions in secret, as well as help geographers, urban planners, etc. Three other companies plan to put similar satellites in orbit in a year, and perhaps dozen may fly in next decade. Photo prices already being quoted.

William J. Broad," Maybe We Are Alone in the Universe, After All" in New York Times 8 Feb 00:-in one SETI(search for extraterrestrial intelligence) project alone, 1.6m people in 224 countries have donated 165,000 years computer time to analyse signals from space picked up by one radio telescope. The Economist 29 Jul 00"Divide and Conquer" (77-8):brings the project up-to-date by reporting that over 2m computers are involved and that in the 15 months since its launch 345,000 years' worth of computer time have been put in. This article is more detailed on the enormous technical and economic potential of "distributed computing" . For instance, the machines involved are" collectively the equivalent of a computer operating at around ten million million calculations a second, about ten times faster than any conventional supercomputer. Meanwhile, planets of one sort or another are being located at an accelerating rate by astronomers, while astrobiologists estimate our galaxy could include a million advanced societies; the universe: 10 trillion. On the other hand, in their book "Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe" (New York: Copernicus, 2000), Drs. D.C.Brownlee and P.D.Ward claim recent scientific data imply humans may be alone in the cosmos. They do not question that "life is an inherent property of matter,as most scientists believe" , and" strongly encourage" SETI work to test their hypothesis, but argue Earth's "composition and stability are extraordinarily rare. Most everywhere else, the radiation levels are too high, the right chemical elements too rare.., the hospitable planets too few...and the rain of killer rocks toointense for life ever to have evolved into advanced communities", though microbes may survive in many places. Debate is lively and fascinating.

William J. Broad and David E. Sanger "As Nuclear Secrets Emerge, More Are Suspected" New York Times26 Dec 04:- extraordinary article, over six printed pages long, that contains so much fascinating material thatsummary is not feasible. Following material from item's beginning and end, however. "When experts fromUS and [UN's]International Atomic Energy Agency[IAEA]came upon blueprints for 10 kiloton atomic bomb in files of Libyan weapons program earlier this year, they found themselves caught between gravity/pettiness. Discovery gave experts new appreciation of audacity of rogue nuclear network led by A. Q. Khan, a chief architect of Pakistan's bomb. Intelligence officials had watched Dr. Khan for years andsuspected he was trafficking in machinery for enriching uranium to make fuel for warheads. But detailed design represented new level of danger, particularly since Libyans said he had thrown it in as deal-sweetener when he sold them $100 million in nuclear gear...Nearly a year after Dr. Khan's arrest, secrets of his nuclear black market continue to uncoil, revealing a vast global enterprise. But inquiry has beenhampered by discord between Bush administration and nuclear watchdog[IAEA], and by Washington'sconcern that if it pushes too hard for access to Dr. Khan, national hero in Pakistan, it could destabilize ally. As result, much of urgency has been sapped from investigation, helping keep hidden full dimensions of activities of Dr. Khan and his associates...Worried about what is still unknown, IAEA quietly setting up...Covert Nuclear Trade Analysis Unit, agency officials disclosed. It has about half dozen specialists looking for evidence of deals by Khan network or its imitators. "I would not be surprised to discover thatsome countries pocketed some centrifuges," Dr ElBaradei[IAEA]. "They may have considered it a chance of a lifetime to get some equipment and thought,'Maybe...good for rainy day.'"

Harry G.Broadman"China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World"(95-109) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.2(Mar/Apr 08):-official summary: "Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy". Broadman is Economic Adviser for the Africa Region at the World Bank, and author of Africa's Silk Road: China and India's New Economic Frontier(World Bank 07). Views in FA are his own.

L.Anathea Brooks and Stacy D.VanDeveer, edit., Saving the Seas: Values, Scientists, and International Governance (College Park: Maryland Sea Grant 1997):-although focused on environmental management of enclosed and coastal seas, book is not technical for those with any interest in big environmental issues. It takes broad/thoughtful look at every major aspect of environmentalism, using coastal seas as intrinsically critical and complex "eco-challenges" to justify discussion of many global problems. Sections diverge in focus: Values, Places, Nature (environmentalists' moral, cultural, aesthetic bases); Scientists, Certainty, and Knowledge (scientific viewpoints and inevitable limitations); International Governance, Actors and Institutions (changing international relations theory/practice; the negative effect on environmental politics);Approaching Ecosystem Governance (ongoing/potential regional-global systems for good international governance). As each Chapter stands alone, you can savor the book as/where you like.

Stephen G.Brooks & William C.Wohlforth"Reshaping the World Order: How Washington Should Reform International Institutions"(49-63)Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.2(Mar/Apr09):-official summary :"The current architecture of international institutions is so out of sync with the modern world that it must be updated. But skeptics question whether US is up to the task. They need not worry: US still possesses enough power and legitimacy to spearhead reform". Emphasized quote: "In a 2007 address to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, [Barack Obama, now US president,] stressed that 'it was America that largely built a system of international institutions that carried us through the Cold War... Instead of constraining our power, these institutions magnified it'. 'Today it's become fashionable to disparage the United Nations, the World Bank, and other international organizations', he continued. 'In fact, reform of these bodies is urgently needed if they are to keep pace with the fast-moving threats we face'"(50). Brooks is Associate Professor of Government, and Wohlforth is Daniel Webster Professor of Government and Chair of Department of Government, both Dartmouth College. Article adapted from their: World Out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy(Princeton Univ 08).

Lester R.Brown"Feeding Nine Billion"(115-32)in State of the World(1999)(New York: W.W.Norton, 99):-main points: World grain harvests grew from 400m tons in 1900 to nearly 1.9b in 1998, aided by massiveirrigation (40% of food), chemical fertilizers, huge plant-breeding advances, short-stem wheat/rice, hybridcorn - such cropland assets being globally available. Yet 840m people are hungry/malnourished(19,000 children die daily from effects of malnutrition). Other two basic food-supply systems - oceanic fisheries andrangelands - appear to have reached global carrying capacity, and per capita grain production hasdecreased 7% since 1984. Meanwhile the current 6b world population is expected to grow to 9b about 2050, during which period net global harvested area is expected to be almost unchanged, and to continuedropping per capita to 0.07 hectares(1950=0.23). Mounting water scarcity has reduced irrigated area per capita by 6% since 1978, simultaneously lowering fertilizing capacity - and levelling off for lack of further benefit. Remaining route to increased food productivity - plant breeding - could raise drought-, disease-, insect-resistance and salt-tolerance, but now little gain is physiologically possible for wheat, corn and ricein terms of further raising crop yields. It all means that eradication of hunger and malnutrition now may depend heavily on demand-side initiatives: slowing population growth and using grain and water more efficiently.

Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(New York: Earth Policy Institute 08):-brilliant accounts of: (I)climate change crises; (II)needs/means to take counter-actions; (III)urgent worldwide programs. Any of 400pp could be consulted individually. Here are Chapters(plus sub-headings): 1. Entering a New World (A Massive Market Failure; Environment and Civilization; China: Why Existing Economic Model Will Fail; Mounting Stresses, Failing States; Civilizational Tipping Point; Plan B - Plan of Hope); (I) 2. Deteriorating Oil and Food Security (Coming Decline of Oil; Oil Intensity of Food; Changing Food Prospect; Cars/People Compete for Crops; World Beyond Peak Oil; Food Insecurity and Failing States); 3. Rising Temperatures and Rising Seas (Rising Temperature - Its Effects; Crop Yield Effect; Reservoirs in Sky; Melting Rice and Rising Seas; More-Destructive Storms; Cutting Carbon 80% by 2020); 4. Emerging Water Shortages (Water Tables Falling; Rivers Running Dry; Lakes Disappearing; Farmers Losing to Cities; Scarcity Crossing National Borders; Water Scarcity Yields Political Stresses); 5. Natural Systems Under Stress (Shrinking Forests -Many Costs; Losing Soil; From Grassland to Desert; Advancing Deserts; Collapsing Fisheries; Disappearing Plants and Animals); 6. Early Signs of Decline (Our Socially Divided World; Health Challenge Growing; Throwaway Economy in Trouble; Population and Resource Conflicts; Environmental Refugees on Rise; Mounting Stresses, Failing States); (II) 7. Eradicating Poverty, Stabilizing Population Universal Basic Education; Stabilizing Population; Better Health for All; Curbing HIV Epidemic; Reducing Farm Subsidies/Debt; Poverty Eradication Barrier); 8. Restoring the Earth (Protecting and Restoring Forests; Conserving and Rebuilding Soils; Regenerating Fisheries; Protecting Plant/Animal Diversity; Planting Trees to Sequester Carbon; Earth Restoration Budget); 9. Feeding Eight Billion Well (Rethinking Land Productivity; Raising Water Productivity; Producing Proteir More Efficiently; Moving Down Food Chain; Action on Many Fronts); 10. Designing Cities for People (Ecology of Cities; Redesigning Urban Transport; Reducing Urban Water Use; Farming in the City; Upgrading Squatter Settlements; Cities for People); 11. Raising Energy Efficiency (Banning the Bulb; Energy-Efficient Appliances; More-Efficient Buildings; Restructuring Transport System; New Materials Economy; Energy Savings Potential); 12. Turning to Renewable Energy (Harnessing Wind; Wind-Powered Plug-in Hybrid Cars; Solar Cells and Collectors; Energy from the Earth; Plant-Based Sources of Energy; River/Tidal/Wave Power; World Energy Economy: 2020); (III) 13.The Great Mobilization (Shifting Taxes and Subsidies; Summing Up Climate Stabilization Measures; Response to Failing States; Wartime Mobilization; Mobilizing to Save Civilization; What You and I Can Do).

John Browne, "Beyond Kyoto" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-substantial, sympathetic, expert arguments by BP executive that, as 1997 treaty now blocked, its vital action be updated. "Kyoto Protocolis coming unraveled. Despite nearly a decade of effort, it may not even enter into force as a binding instrument...Canada, Japan, and European Union...are not on track to meet their commitments[and US haswithdrawn entirely.]...Clear-eyed realism is essential. But display...is mistaken reaction. There is scope for different and more positive view...First, it has become obvious that Kyoto was simply starting point of very long [progressing] endeavour. Second, we have improved, if still imperfect, knowledge of challengesand uncertainties climate change presents, as well as better understanding of time scales involved. Third,many countries and companies have had experience reducing emissions and have proved that suchreductions can be achieved without destroying competitiveness or jobs. Fourth, science and technology have advanced on multiple fronts...Finally, public awareness of issue has grown - not just in developed world but all around the globe. [It] is becoming clear that reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is soluble problem, and that mechanisms for delivering solutions are within reach. In that spirit of cautious optimism, it is time to move beyond current Kyoto debate." Bulk of text amplifies each of five points.

Bill Bryson A Short History of Nearly Everything(New York: Broadway Books 03):-pre-bestseller author of many/widely-varied books, undertook "informative journey into world of science,.. his greatest challenge yet: to understand - and, if possible, answer - oldest, biggest questions... about the universe and ourselves... Result is a sometimes profound, sometimes funny, and always supremely clear/entertaining adventure in the realms of human knowledge"(publisher). Even new "lavishly illustrated" Nov 05 hardcover edition of 624pp available from Barnes & Noble to all @US$28.00. Favourable Ed Regis NYT review(18 May 03)states:"Bryson achieved exactly what he'd set out to do, and, moreover, [did] it in stylish, efficient, colloquial and stunningly accurate prose... The basic facts of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, climatology, geology - all these and many more are presented with exceptional clarity and skill". My own reaction is that this easily available/readable reference on all not-personally-specialised scientific subjects should ideally be read - or at least be used for topic-reference - by all in this very unstable world.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, "Hegemonic Quicksand" in The National Interest Winter 2003/04(5-16):-this long article on future instability is excerpted from The Choice, Global Domination or Global Leadership. The author claims the unstable but new "Global Balkans" (developing similar to the past" European Balkans" )is a region between Europe and the Far East. "For the next several decades, the most volatile and dangerous regionof the world - with the explosive potential to plunge the world into chaos - will be the crucial swathe[from approximately the Suez Canal to Xinjiang, and from the Russo-Kazakh border to southern Afghanistan]...It is here that America could slide into a collision with the world of Islam while American-European policy differences could even cause the Atlantic Alliance to come unhinged. The two eventualities together could then put the prevailing American global hegemony at risk... [C]hallenge America now confronts, dwarfs what it faced half a century ago in Western Europe[since]to promote global security will be the pacificationand then the cooperative organization of a region that contains the world's greatest concentration ofpolitical injustice, social deprivation, demographic congestion and potential for high-intensity violence. But the region also contains most of the world's oil and natural gas...In 2020, the area is projected to produce roughly 42 million barrels of oil per day - 39% of the global production total...There are no self-evident answers to such basic questions as how and with whom America should be engaged in helping tostabilize the area, pacify it and eventually cooperatively organize it." Article then notes that some states in the area could be US potential key partners: Turkey, Israel, India, and Russia. All four are then examined in detail but ruled out for various reasons. "Ultimately, America can look to only one genuine partner...:Europe. Although it will need the help of leading East Asian states like Japan and China...neither is likely at this stage to become heavily engaged. Only Europe...has the potential capacity in the political, military and economic realms to pursue jointly with America the task of engaging the various Eurasian peoples...America and Europe together represent an array of physical and experiential assets with thecapacity to make the decisive difference in shaping the political future of the Global Balkans...European engagement will not occur, however, if it is expected to consist of simply following America's lead" .Thelatter portion of the paper discusses whether and how the US and Europe can work together in improving the issues of the area. Specific attention is made to the problems: Arab-Israeli peace, Iraq, Iran, the Gulf states, Caucasus and Central Asia, Caspian Basin. Final comments relate to" the need to contain both theproliferation of WMD and the terrorist epidemic" . The paper ends:" One should not forget that struggling alone makes the quicksand only more dangerous."

Zbigniew Brzezinski"An Agenda for NATO: Toward a Global Security Web"(2-20) Foreign Affairs Vol.88/No.5 (Sep/Oct 09):-official summary:"In the course of its 60 years, NATO has ended the 'civil war' within the West for transoceanic and European supremacy, institutionalized the United States' commitment to the defense of Europe, and secured the peaceful termination of the Cold War. What next? To live up to its potential, the alliance should become the hub of a global-spanning web of regional cooperative-security undertakings". Emphasized extracts:"In the vulnerable decades after World War II, conflict was avoided largely because NATO remained united". "WshDC's arrogant unilateralism in Iraq and its demagogic Islamophobic sloganeering weakened the unity of NATO". "NATO has the means to become the center of a globe-spanning web of cooperative-security undertakings". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

Zbigniew Brzezinski"From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama's Foreign Policy"(16-30) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-while this leading/positive essay is about US policy, the subjects are all of global importance. Official summary:"In his first year in office, President Barack Obama has reconceptualized US foreign policy and demonstrated a genuine sense of strategic direction. But so far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs. Three urgent issues - Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran's nuclear ambitions, and Afghan-Pakistani challenge - are posing an immediate test of his ability to significantly change US policy". Emphasized extracts:"Obama has shown a genuine sense of strategic direction and a solid grasp of what today's world is all about". "US is already losing the renewed confidence of the Arab world that Obama won with his speech in Cairo". "Sanctions against Iran must punish those in power - not the middle class, as an embargo on gasoline would do". "So far, Obama's foreign policy has generated more expectations than strategic breakthroughs". Brzezinski was US National Security Adviser 1977-1981. His most recent book: Second Chance: Three Presidents and the Crisis of American Superpower.

R.A.Buchanan The Power of the Machine: The Impact of Technology from 1700 to the Present (London: Penguin Books 94):-approach differs from, say, Bell, Drucker or Toffler(op.cit.)in that, in analysing accelerating transformation of society, it deals more with physical than societal changes, with new structures more than their social implications. While UN actions must reflect both trends-and resulting concerns- "most pervasive/persistent stimulus to change has been technological combination of scientific discovery and technical innovation" .For truly revolutionary example of technology being explored, see K.Eric DrexlerEngines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor Press/Doubleday 87):-genuine feasibility of creating assembly machines smaller than living cells generated increasing attention from 1990s because of their multiple uses. For an excellent 18-years-later account of global nanotechnology activities/anticipation, see Natasha Loder "Small Wonders: A Survey of Nanotechnology" The Economist01 Jan 05(1-12):-key point "Nanotechnology will give humans greater control of matter at tiny scales. That is a good thing." Enormous, if scientifically basic, concept behind booming business initiatives isexplained, and" point about nanotechnology is that it sets out deliberately to exploit strange properties found in these very small worlds." Four other essays summarized: "Apply Here: Where very small thingscan make big difference." "Fear and Loathing: Some of worries about nanotechnology are rational." "Downsizing: Companies both large and small hope to make big money from tiny particles." "Handle with Care: Nanotechnology promises great benefits, but safeguards will be essential." Drexler's idea" that one day all manufacturing would be done by very tiny robots" had raised terror; but now activity/research quite specific/monitored. Survey concludes" idea of 'democratising' nanotechnology - giving ordinary people more of say in what areas of S&T should bepursued - unlikely to be helpful.[N]ext to impossible to slow down or control some areas of science in one country when world so interconnected...Nanotechnology, like any new discovery, offers both risks and rewards...Scientists should...work with as little hindrance as possible."

Gary Burtless, Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert E.Litan, Robert J.Shapiro Globaphobia: Confronting Fears about Open Trade(Washington: Brookings Institution/Progressive Policy Institute/ Twentieth Century Fund 98):-major criticisms of global and regional free trade are contradicted skilfully, using fairly non-technical data and arguments. The authors' concern is that while the US economy has been doing well in terms of growth, job creation, inflation and investment, at the same time unskilled industrial workers have faced layoffs and/or stagnant incomes, feeding fears of that this is the direct result of imports from low-wage economies. Statistics prove, however, that such broad structural and technological problems and trade flows are unrelated. Earnings insurance is proposed to reduce protectionism.

Richard W. Bulliet edit., The Columbia History of the 20th Century(New York: Columbia Univ. Press, 1998):-these encyclopaedia-quality essays describe the transforming and accelerating trends and developmentsthat produced "greatest one-century period of change in human history" (1)and hence UN's challenges. Subjects covered: high vs popular culture; women's role; religion; athletics; ethnicity-racism;imperialism-decolonization; nationalism; socialism-communism; international order; war; industry-business; money-economic change; technology-invention; agriculture; communications; transportation;scientific thought; space-discovery; medicine; cities; environment; demography-population movement; Epilogue: 21st century. Their highlights are found in relevant bibliography sections under authors' names. All help explain how UN's 21st century issues originated and evolved.

Barry Buzan and Gerald Segal, Anticipating the Future: Twenty Millennia of Human Progress(London: Simon & Schuster 1998):-this book is both stimulating and misleading -points made in Reviews in both The Economist 14 Feb 98(12)and Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.2(Mar/Apr 1998)(134-9). In spite of its title, almost entire book deals with broad sweep of human past and present, in order to put 1998 and our possible futures into focus. It does it clearly/usefully if in fairly orthodox terms. "Future" section anticipates UN system stymied, mainly by US, requiring replacement. My criticism is that it underestimates depth and acceleration of current global change(INTRODUCTION or Bull-op.cit.).

Lucius Caflisch "Regulation of the Uses of International Waterways: The Contribution of the United Nations" (3-35)in Martin Ira Glassner edit. The United Nations at Work(Westport: Praeger 98):-Charterrequires UNGA "initiate studies and make recommendations for purpose of:..encouraging progressivedevelopment of international law and its codification." Much effective work done by expert 34-memberInternational Law Commission whose drafts passed to UNGA for decision. This greatly increased body of international law at time when need for it expanding. Describes in lay terms how newly explosive issue, "development, apportionment and use of water resources[and]one of world's major economic and social problems" handled in UN. Growing demand, hence rising competition for scarce resource made it delicate exercise.

Frances Cairncross The Death of Distance: How the Communications Revolution Will Change Our Lives(Boston: Harvard Business School 97):-superb survey for non-experts. Major globally-relevant points:distance will no longer determine costs of electronic communication; location will no longer be key in most business decisions; most people will get access to omni-address, two-way, picture-capable, selective filterablenetworks; global bonds will join like-minded; roles of home and office will become blurred; distanceeducation will be easy; there will be rapid and global information dispersal; qualified people will become ultimate scarce resources; state info-control and privacy will both be reduced; while there will be global pay levelling for similar work, there will be more divergence by job; global/urban migration will lessen as standards level; taxes will be harder to collect, so they will be lowered to attract skills; cities will concentrateless work but more culture; English will strengthen its global role, but cultures will generally be reinforcedby new opportunities; written communication will improve in quality; governments will become moresensitive to public views; cause of peace will be helped by mutual experience/needs among people. Many trends will stress increased global cooperation. See also Brief: TV globalization Economist 29 Nov 97(71-2). UN System will be constantly and increasingly affected by these developments, and as they create ever more interdependent world, will be required to(help)organize/administer necessary global regimes.

Frances Cairncross "The Millennium Bug: Time Runs Out" The Economist 19 Sep 98(1-18):-Survey takes apolitical and economic look at a serious global problem, and one that can arise not just once in a millennium but, in a computer-dependent/vulnerable world, when a fault/error/virus/breakdown threatens(large/key elements of)the network as a whole. The author helpfully explains in non-technical terms the origin and practical implications of many computers' inability to recognize years after 1999, and why this raises so many concerns. Globally, direct costs of correction may be about $500 billion, plus indirect costs of perhaps $1 trillion. The World Bank and ITU are helping LDCs, but many OECD countries will notbe prepared. Besides IT-dependent governments, areas facing special problems: telecommunications, finance, energy and air transport. The "main economic threat from the bug will be its effect on financial confidence" .

Frances Cairncross, "A Survey of Pay: The Best...and the Rest" The Economist 08 May 99(1-20):- withconcern over inflated executive incomes and increasing domestic pay divergence, the Survey not only finds many causes, but also basic changes in the way pay is determined. While most is still set by local markets, global communications/MNCs are creating global rates. English' global role(hence universal premium)and the ecu's creation break down national(pay)boundaries. Within firms, the need to move topstaff or let some work online from places of choice, combined with functional organization (paying staff by role not location), all tend towards global rates. Also, with more jobs now being education- and initiative-intensive, top human capital is in high demand, forcing relative pay increases, plus diverse and variablereward systems(stock options/bonuses)to meet competition and encourage motivation, loyalty, flexibility.More inequality lies ahead.

Frances Cairncross"A Survey of E-Management: Inside the Machine"The Economist 11 Nov 00 (1-40):-while aimed at business, text relevant to development, economics/finance/jobs/education, globalization, government, HR, law, S&T, many UN roles. "Change has not only become more rapid, but also more complex and more ubiquitous" (5). Behind resulting uncertainty in all forms of management liesInternet/related technologies, whose evolution/impact only just starting. It offers new communicationsand distribution channel, market place, information system, and tool for creating goods and services, all driven by dramatic falls in cost of handling/transmitting information. It produces "almost instant" andpossibly huge productivity gains, at minimal expense for hard- and soft-ware, but demands ten times that investment in new "organizational capital" .Survey analyses: internal communications; links with suppliers/sources and customers/consumers; organizational changes; good e-management. Last needs:1.Speed;2.Good People;3.Openness;4.Collaboration Skills;5.Discipline;6.Good Communications;7.Content-Management Skills;8.Customer Focus;9.Knowledge Management;10.Leadership by Example.

Frances Cairncross "A Survey of Illegal Drugs: High Time" The Economist 28 Jul 01(1-16):- excellent report on global status, system and knowledge of illegal drugs. It makes strong case for their legalization, aimed mainly at current situation in US. In essence, drug industry consists of production, transport and sale of "simple agricultural extracts and chemical compounds... for astonishing prices[, which] directly reflect the ferocious efforts by the rich countries to suppress [them]". Effect is to create huge -and highly profitable- escalation from production to import to retail prices. Per kilo, farmers get $90 for opium and $610 for coca leaves. Import prices of resulting heroin and cocaine are about 10-15% of retail prices in rich countries, where heroin can sell for $290,000 and cocaine powder for $110,000 per kilo. Annual global tobacco sales total $204b; alcohol $252b; rough guesses of illegal drugs sales vary: $150b(author); $400b(UN)(3). Much material is derived from a major new study: Robert MacCoun & Peter Reuter Drug War Heresies: Learning from Other Vices, Times, and Places(Cambridge Univ. Press). Cairncross argues that, while not underestimating harm drug misuse can do to individuals and "moral fury drug-taking can arouse,.. outrage has turned out to be a poor basis for policy". In US, where anti-drug policy costs $35-40b a year, it has "eroded civil liberties, locked up unprecedented numbers of young blacks and Hispanics... corroded foreign policy [and] proved a dismal rerun of [Prohibition. Yet as US now] probably consume[s] more drugs per head... than most other countries[,its]experience demonstrates the awkward reality that there is little connection between the severity of a drugs policy... and prevalence of use... At the heart of the debate... lies a moral question: what duty does the state have to protect individual citizens from harming themselves?"(4/5). Here she supports John Stuart Mills' "On Liberty" :'Over himself, over his own body and mind, the individual is sovereign'. "So a first priority is to look for measures that reduce the harm drugs do, both to users and to society at large" (5). "Big Business" describes recent history and current structure of global drugs industry: where and how drugs originate, are processed, shipped, and sold and who is involved at various stages/places. In sum: "drugs industry is simple and profitable. Its simplicity makes it relatively easy to organize; its profitability makes it hard to stop. At every level, its pricing and its structure are shaped by the high level of risk from enforcement" (6). "Choose Your Poison" discusses who uses drugs and why. Most drug users live in the poor world (China, Pakistan, Colombia). Future growth will be concentrated in developing countries and former USSR. Markets with big money are in rich world - which also prefers drugs with fewest side-effects and least likely to cause addiction. Most drug users are "occasional dabblers", so a minority of users account for bulk of consumption. "Most drugs do not appear to be physically addictive" (including cannabis and amphetamines) but: "Heroin is a true addiction, with a recovery rate of 40-50%... With cocaine, the recovery rate is around 90%" (9). A third of US heroin users are dependent (80% of cigarette smokers are addicted). Idea that soft drugs lead on to hard drugs turns out to be nonsense. "The Harm Done" deals with drugs' negative effects on users and society. Abusing drugs wrecks many lives. For those dependent, pleasure -often their original motive- "consists mainly of avoiding the pain of giving up[; however, m]ost drug users ultimately stop when drugs no longer fit their lifestyle. [Also, with exception]of heroin, drugs contribute to far fewer deaths among... users than... nicotine or alcohol[, and c]onsuming a drug is rarely the only cause of death" (9)(dirty needles). Although drugs may affect brain activity (even cannabis might possibly do damage), The Lancet concludes:" It would be reasonable to judge cannabis less of a threat than tobacco or alcohol", while it could help treat nausea, appetite loss, pain and anxiety. Besides health problems, drugs have been linked to domestic violence, grogginess, bad driving, and much petty crime. Here government is right to intervene - but best way is not necessarily to ban drugs. "Stopping It" describes how governments try unsuccessfully to stop the flow of drugs. US Prohibition, though milder than its drug policies, foreshadowed many current problems. Most important, "the attempt to stamp out drugs has had effects more devastating than those of the drugs themselves" (10) - and on global stage. Because of vast profits, reflecting low costs/high prices, suppression of drug-growing in some regions simply shifts production/related problems, with little durable effect on supply. Even huge drug seizures do not affect prices, and essential corruption can be bought at all levels. Demand is also hard to reduce despite harsh penalties, because of popular cultures,huge numbers who want to buy, and desperation of addicts. "Collateral Damage" looks at varied indirect costs of criminalizing drugs. Among "victims": Law enforcement and legal system are at minimum distorted, with investigative and court standards lowered and at worst corrupted. Mere drug users jailed (US mandatory minimum: 5-10 years for possession of few grams of drugs) for usually harmless and (in Mill's sense) strictly personal acts. Many released dangerously scarred, drug-addicted and/or HIV-infected. Basic civil liberties and freedom from state intrusion are at minimum constrained. Education/social benefit/job impeding criminal records are branded on previously non-criminal and perhaps exemplary citizens. US rate of incarceration for drug offences (74% black) is totally at odds with the racial mix of drug users (13% black) because more blacks/Hispanics have to buy (vulnerably) on the street. Both huge US costs of drug enforcement and substantial drug taxes are unavailable for better purposes, while criminals/rogue states enjoy revenues of $80-100b a year. "Better Ways"probes various alternatives to enforcement for controlling drug use. Education is a possibility, but apparently has at best limited effect. For habitual drug users, "harm reduction" is more promising (methadone programs, needle-exchange centres, prescription heroin). Very successful Swiss program includes all three in its "heroin maintenance" clinics. These care for 1000 most problematic of 33,000 Swiss heroin addicts. Most are given anti-addictive heroin-substitute methadone, but most "chaotic" are initially given "pharmaceutical" heroin daily. They are not pushed towards abstinence since: "People can tolerate regular doses of heroin for long periods, but if they give up for a period and then start again, they run big risk of overdosing" (14). Of those who drop out of full "heroin maintenance", two-thirds move on to either methadone or abstinence. Even while still on heroin, most can get full-time jobs, end trouble with police, and hardly ever attempt suicide or contract HIV. Vast majority are also taking cocaine on first arrival (29%: daily) but after 18 months 93% take it never or only occasionally (there is no "methadone" for cocaine). Dutch "principle of expediency" aims to "separate the markets for illegal drugs to keep users of 'soft' ones away from dealers in the harder versions, and to avoid marginalising drug users" (14). While cannabis remains illegal, some "coffee shops" may sell small quantities under strict rules without prosecution. Both Swiss and Dutch governments want to legalize marijuana but restrain because UN convention prevents them from (formally) legalizing" possession of and trade in cannabis". US opinion is moving in same direction, and several states (plus Canada) already allow medical use of marijuana (73% of US supported this by 1999). "Set It Free" addresses issue of how best to decriminalize drugs if it is so decided. They would effectively be put on par with tobacco and alcohol, and both possession and trade would have to be legalised, but under systems which could reflect each drug's relative danger and with appropriate quality control. Number of users would inevitably rise. (1)Prices would certainly be lower (maybe much lower) since appropriate taxes could not be so high as to encourage smuggling and crime again. (2)Access to drugs would be easier and quality-assured. (3)Social stigma against use of drugs would diminish. (4)Might be strong commercialization with corresponding pressure to consume more. (5)Even with consumer age-limits, younger market is certain to grow. But "nobody knows quite what drives the demand for drugs"(16); it may respond most to price, to fashion, to social standards - or to local culture. Hence best to move slowly, thus building experience, and cautiously start with just marijuana and amphetamines. International cooperation is needed to "minimise drug tourism and smuggling" (UN role?). Hard drugs should be sold only through licenced outlets (pharmacies?). Above is well summarized in Editorial "The Case For Legislation" (11-12), although it makes "stronger case for principle" (John Stuart Mill) and terrible harm drug trade in doing in poor world. Finally it notes that good health and safety rules could be applied. Economist 25 Aug 01 Letters: "Legalising Drugs" (16-7):-includes number of reactions to above. Majority raise disagreement, but all are thoughtful and constructive.

Thomas Carothers,"Civil Society: Think Again" Foreign Policy No.117(Winter 1999-2000):-author contends that "civil society's worth as a concept has soared far beyond its demonstrated returns...[The original 18th century idea was a]" domain parallel to but separate from the state... where citizens associate according to their own interests and wishes" (18). It revived in the 1990s as dictatorships conceded, politicalparties ossified, government retracted, technology made grouping easy/powerful. Broader than do-good NGOs, the concept spans all interest groups outside state and market. The ends of such groups can begood, bad, bizarre, and conflicting. They can strengthen or weaken both democracy and dictatorship(NAACP; NRA; Hitler Youth; Solidarity), and a strong civil society is not essential for democracy or economic success(Japan); it can hurt(Latin American unions). Civil society and the state are not rivals but complementary, and many groups get state funds. "Global" civil society may be ancient, artificial, even hateful.

Ted Galen Carpenter edit. Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention (Washington: Cato Institute 97):- Cato aims to further "traditional American principles of limited government, individual liberty, and peace." Libertarian view inclines it to oppose multilateralism(it inter alia limits US global freedom of action)and all constraints on free enterprise. Topics: UN in Perspective; Peacemaker-Peacekeeper; Bureaucracy-Funding- Corruption; Social and Environmental Agenda; Economic Development Role. 18 essays clearly stress Cato views. Only five sympathetic to UN aims/activities; 10 or so reasonable, even if bit selective or broad, in criticism. Last deliberately distort, and in their narrow-minded, selfish jingoism, exhibit true "delusions of grandeur": John Bolton: " [Clinton] forgot that UN was instrument to be used to advance America's foreign policy interests, not to engage in international social work..." (51; his emphasis)! Provides rationales of many US anti-UN views.

Edward Carr, "The Sea: A Second Fall" in The Economist 23 May 98(1-18):-broad if necessarily concise Survey of all major trends and problems relating to the oceans - today and anticipated. Among varied subjects covered are: increases in its human exploitation and our dependency; end of "unlimited" utilization, and last great hunting-gathering culture; need for same sort of global and state controls as exist for land use; vast areas of unknown living and mineral resources; pollution(man-made and natural), algal blooms, coast and reef destruction; sealife and its nutrients; (over)fishing: new expansion areas and controls(world's fishingfleet is 53% superfluous); ocean trends and currents(El Nino, global warming); shipping(see Griffiths et al. - op.cit); new lessons to be learned.

Edward Carr, "The Koreas: Yesterday's War, Tomorrow's Peace" in The Economist 10 Jul 99(1-16):-millennium ended with probably the greatest single threat to global peace and security being danger ofconflict between Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea(North Korea)and Republic of Korea(South Korea). While Survey concentrates on economic structures and prospects, it shows danger is serious in every dimension: military, geographic, strategic, diplomatic, political, ideological, developmental, historic, educational...However, Carr argues, North "is inherently unstable. Economy is collapsing and needs radical reform. There is despondency and latent unrest. Corruption is rife.[M]ilitary...is far larger...thanthe country can afford" (14). Hence it must transform somehow. Yet while South is 12 times richer per capita, it could not absorb a ruin; so it is optimum that they come together gradually. By 15 Apr 00, so much of global interest was happening in Korea that Economist ran a major essay as update: "The Two Koreas: Mr. Kim, Meet Mr. Kim" (21-4). In spite of agreement by North to hold an unprecedented bilateral summit,essay's tone seems even more cautious. Korean problems also produced two excellent New York Timesarticles. Howard W. French, "North Korea Shyly Courts Capitalism" 30 Apr 00:-claims that there has recently been a major change in North's economic policy. It accepts major high-tech investment, mainly from South Korea and China, and is starting to look like its big neighbour with complexes of efficient, private assembly plants coexisting with ancient, moribund state heavy industry. Calvin Sims, "Behind Korea Meeting, a Million Troops in a Standoff" 04 May 00:-reports on ever-tense "demilitarized zone" dividing well over 1m troops on constant alert and equipped with advanced military hardware. Not only are small but deadly clashes normal, but North has just deployed many long-range multiple-rocket launchers and self-propelled guns near zone, and is now believed to possess thousands of tons of chemical and biological weapons - besides its infamous missiles. All this in spite of new North-South contacts and "improved" relations.

Iain Carson "Meet the Global Factory: A Survey of Manufacturing" The Economist 20 Jun 98:-two facts pressed re current global transformation of manufacturing. Similar in scale and importance to agriculture's plunge as % of GDP and employment(44% of US labor in 1900; 3% today);in 1970-95 its % of OECD employment fell 28 to 17; 1960-95 its % of GDP 30 to 20. Now replaced by services, themselves a key element in manufacturing, where OECD has big lead. Manufacturing is meanwhile becoming a lean and efficient process from beginning to end. Globally integrated, dispersed, mobile to reflect comparative advantage/customer tastes: acts as engine of globalization.

Iain Carson"A Survey of Air Travel: The Sky's the Limit" The Economist 10 Mar 01(1-23):- describing civil aviation's recent business history and likely trends, also offers considerable key up-to-date information regarding global role and critical future of a huge, world-shrinking industry. Current situation is strangely mixed: airline profits are substantial yet consumers pay 70% less per passenger mile than 20 years ago; revenue per seat declining by 2% a year, yet customer dissatisfaction has reached new peaks(demand exceeds infrastructure)! In 2000, passenger journeys by air exceeded 1.6b(9m 1945);40%of world-manufactured exports by value travelled by air. Omni-route air networks demand created global airline "alliances" that may soon consolidate into three or four. Meanwhile Internet can identify optimal routes, let consumers "shop around" to keep ticket prices competitive, and eliminate all "paper" forms;computers offer a satellite-based system of air traffic control, doubling its capacity. Major changes are also needed in the international legal regime regulating civil aviation(ICAO-IATA).

Ashton B. Carter "How To Counter WMD" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.5(Sep/Oct 04):-ex-US Assistant Secretary of Defense (under Clinton)and currently Co-director, Harvard Preventive Defense Project, writes just when:most are concerned that US attacked Iraq by mis-claiming WMD threat; US presidential election imminent. Concerned that since 11 Sep crisis, US "counterproliferation policies have not been overhauled" ,and" it has made no new efforts to prevent nonstate actors such as terrorists from getting their hands on WMD." He truly decrees much reliable advice on countering the serious terrorist/WMD dangers to the entire global audience, and not to Washington only. His basic view:" WMD generally applies to nuclear, biological, chemical weapons; ballistic missiles; more recently'dirty bombs,'ordinary explosives containing some radioactive material. But this definition is too broad. Chemical weapons are not much more lethal than conventional explosives/hardly... WMD label. Similarly, long-range ballistic missiles especially destructive only if they have nuclear or biological warhead, and so should not be considered separate category. Dirty bombs cause local contamination and costly priority. Primary focus of counterproliferation policy, therefore, should be nuclear and biological weapons...True overhaul of counterproliferation policy would recognize that, like defense against terrorism, defense against WMD must be multilayered and comprehensive. Such reforms would aim to eliminate threat of nuclear terrorism entirely by denying fissilematerials to nonstate actors and...prepare to contain scale of most likely forms of bioterrorism to minor outbreaks. It would revamp outdated arms control agreements, expand counterproliferation programs,...improve way intelligence on WMD is collected and analysed.[W]ould favor countering WMD with non-nuclear rather than nuclear measures. And it would at last develop coherent strategies for heading off...most pressing nuclear proliferation threats." Substantial article then amplifies all these points.

Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected".

Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] thebest political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints,tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - thenthe problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field'between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting thepoor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberalrather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles showwhere and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White'Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy.

Bruce Clark, "A Survey of NATO: Knights in Shining Armour?" (1-18)The Economist 24 Apr 99:-extremely useful in several respects. Provides history of NATO's gradually - now rapidly - changing role(s), (un)popularity,(dis)unity. Describes how "most successful military alliance in history" suddenly lost its raison d'etre; then altered from new trans-European-US security entity, swamped with new applicants and proud of its Bosnian role, to frustrated military giant in Kosovo, seen by many as having acted illegally and unnecessarily, with future dependent on solving complex puzzle of own making. Also outlines functional dilemmas facing military allies equipped/trained decades apart technologically. Finally, survey coversNATO's split over whether it plays global role in(UN-sponsored) multilateral combat interventions which it alone has weapons, training, cohesion to handle.

Walter J.Clemens Jr Dynamics of International Relations: Conflict and Mutual Gain in an Era of Global Interdependence (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield 98):-well-organized introductory text on IR, helpful to students or those first looking at global issue(s). Chapters:(1)Is IR "Winner-Take-All?" Can It Be Mutual Gain?(2)How to Win at Peace: Creating New World Orders;(3)Foreign Policy Decision Making: Do Individuals Count?(4)Why Wage War? Does It Pay to Fight?(5)Power and Influence:What Wins?(6)Why Arm?Can Swords Become Plowshares? (7)Negotiating Conflict:How Can Foes Become Partners? (8)Nationalism and World Order: Peoples at Risk? (9)Intervention and Mediation: How Can Outsiders Help?(10)Democracy and Authoritarianism: What Impact on International Peace and Prosperity?(11)Wealth of Nations: West Meets East(12)Challenges of Development: South Meets North(13) Transitions: CanSecond World Join First?(14)Ecopolitics: Health of Nations(15)Organizing for Mutual Gain:UN, Europe and Nonstate Actors(16)International Protection of Human Rights:Sham or Revolution? (17)Alternative Futures.

Walter J. Clemens, Jr, "From AD 2000 to AD 2025: Six Alternative Futures" International JournalVol.LIV/No.2(Spring 99):- interesting/balanced exercise in futurology using relatively conservative global views to create believable: (1)Unipolar Stability: benign US hegemony extends most current/surprise-freeglobal trends.(2) Fragmented Chaos: environmental- pandemic-autarkic fears come true; global injusticeprovokes anger/violence; WMDs proliferate; China turns unstable; all reflecting a low level of global cooperation.(3) Hegemon Challenged: China becomes powerful bully; either intimidates or is faced down by US.(4)Bipolar Cooperation: China turns democratic/cooperative.(5)Multipolar Cooperation: Most countries turn democratic/prosperous.(6)Global Governance Without World Government: trans-national civil societyand governments share powers at many levels. Interdependence may force the last.

Charles Clover The End of the Line: How Over-Fishing is Changing the World and What We Eat(Ebury Press 04):-book not yet available here but got very favourable review: The Economist 02 Oct 04 "The Fishing Industry: Heading For the Final Fillet" (83-4):-theme about world fishing industry: "fish...ever more scarce;greed, crime, cruelty, waste, folly, destruction, hypocricy, ignorance, pusillanimity, deception and possibility of extinction all becoming ever more abundant. Problem with fishing: Fish are wonderful source of protein, not just for the swelling populations of poor...As man's appetite for fish has grown, sohas ability to catch them. Modern gadgets...enable today's vast fishing boats to find and kill their prey as never before.[But]signs of growing scarcity everywhere[,and]most efforts to manage fish stocks or controloverfishing failed.[Hence fishermen]moved on to deplete stocks in world's last waters to be exploited.[D]emand grows and grows, and with it plunder of the seas. Though some kinds of fish...can nowbe farmed, industrial fishing still largely matter of hunting or...mining.[I]nternational agencies monitoring, suggesting and complaining, but to little avail.[Lots of unneeded]'by-catch'generally flung back into sea. Thewaste is appalling; the cruelty equally vile. Trawlers...wreak destruction across seabed. All laid out inClover's excellent book...He exposes follies of fishermen, politicians and celebrity chefs[and]anyone withaccess to common resource has interest in over-exploiting it...In time farming may help" [but also morecareful supervision and management].

Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 06(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation'of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards aremost ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation'has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - nowbuilding their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is lookingpolitically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic]prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans]more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus]370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level".Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rightsand democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes".

Eliot A. Cohen, "History and the Hyperpower" Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.4(Jul/Aug 04):-vast US scope, in comparison with any other state or group of states, gives it both capacities and opposition of past major empires(e.g. Rome, Britain), but its global interests/roles are unique and controversial. Author contendswell worth while to compare US positions and potential with historical styles/events/problems. "Historicalanalogy making rounds of late is notion that US today is an empire that can and should be compared with imperial powers of past...Casual talk of Pax Americana...implies that US is following pattern of imperial dominance that holds precedents and lessons. Metaphor of empire merits neither angry rejection nor gleeful embrace. It instead deserves careful scrutiny, because imperial history contains analogies and parallels that bear critically on current US predicament."

Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It(New York: Oxford Univ Press 07):-reviews praise this brilliant description of the world's poorest states and how they need unprecedented forms of aid to escape their chronic dilemmas. Essence of argument by author in Preface (xi):"The problems these countries have are very different from those we have addressed for the past four decades in what we have called 'developing countries' - that is, virtually all countries besides the most developed, which account for only one-sixth of the earth's people. For all this time we have defined developing countries so as to encompass five billion of the six billion people in the world. But not all developing countries are the same. Those where development has failed face intractable problems not found in the countries that are succeeding. We have, in fact, done the easier part of global development; finishing the job now gets more difficult. Finish it we must, because an impoverished ghetto of one billion people will be increasingly impossible for a comfortable world to tolerate... But to do so we will need to draw upon tools - such as military interventions, international standard-setting, and trade policy - that to date have been used for other purposes.. To build a unity of purpose, thinking needs to change, not just within the development agencies but among the wider electorates whose views shape what is possible". Text (200pp) is essential.

Paul Collier "The Politics of Hunger: How Illusion and Greed Fan the Food Crisis"(67-79) Foreign Affairs Vol.87/No.6(Nov/Dec 08):-official summary:"The food crisis could have dire effects on the poor. Politicians have it in their power to bring food prices down. But doing so will require ending the bias against big commercial farms and genetically modified crops and doing away with damaging subsidies - the giants of romantic populism, bolstered by both illusion and greed". [Criticism is particularly aimed at US and Europe.] Collier is Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Study of African Economics at Oxford Univ. and author of Bottom Billion.

Commitment to Development Index(CDI), "Ranking the Rich: 2004"in Foreign Policy(Co-Edited with Center for Global Development(CGD))No.142(May/Jun 04)(46-56):-CDI in 2003 was a ranking of rich nationsaccording to how their policies help or hinder social and economic development in poor countries. In2004, CGD/FP unveils...CDI that brings into sharper focus which governments lead the global community in the challenge of development. "Why should rich countries care about development in poor ones? For reasons both pragmatic and principled. In a globalizing world, rich countries cannot insulate themselves from insecurity. Poverty and weak institutions are breeding grounds for public-health crises, violence, and economic volatility. Fairness is another reason to care. No human being should be denied the chance to live free of poverty and oppression, or to enjoy a basic standard of education and health. Yet richnations' current trade policies, for example, place disproportionate burdens on poor countries, discriminatingagainst their agricultural goods in particular. Finally, the countries ranked in the CDI are all democracies that preach concern for human dignity and economic opportunity within their own borders. The index measureswhether their policies promote these same values in the rest of the world" .

James Cooper"Child Labour: Legal Regimes, Market Pressures and the Search for Meaningful Solutions"and John English"'Imitating the Cries of Little Children': Exploitative Child Labour and the Growth of Children's Rights"International Journal Vol.LII/ No.3(Summer 97):-paired articles, while advocating different approaches to this complex problem - and one that can be locally very controversial, agree it must be met globally and positively, including through UNGA, ILO, WTO, UNICEF. For a specific example of where pressure to end child labour locally (making soccer balls in Pakistan)was successful, but created a number of economic side effects, see The Economist 08 Apr 00"After the Children Went to School"(72-3).

Daryl Copeland"Globalization, Enterprise, and Governance: What Does a Changing World Mean for Canada?"International Journal Vol.LIII/No.1(Winter 1997-8):-worldwide approach despite title. Succinct but broad survey of globalization covers both its rationale and effects: borderless business-first priorities; technological shrinking of time, space, and ignorance; job insecurity and divergence; cultural convergence and ethnic reaction; structural standardization; uncontrolled finance. The author fears the end of the welfare state. Mark S. Worrall, "State and Society in the Age of the Global Economy" in Vol.LIII/No.3(Summer 1998) offers a friendly but more optimistic response. In his view " state has been forced to share its powers with suprastate, substate, and nonstate actors" (579). While "not the driving force behind globalization ...[the state] remains the single possible architect of the post-cold war order" (580). This in turn must include international institutions capable of addressing the new global issues. Two good analyses.

Robert Cottrell"Meet the Neighbours: A Survey of the EU's Eastern Borders"The Economist 25 Jun 05(1-16):-a cautiously optimistic -and particularly economic - look at European Union's future, particularly as regards keen but poor countries to its east. The very useful Introduction is summarized:"EU has been expanding by leaps and bounds. [Author]asks what happens if it stops". The seven mostly-geographicchapters are carefully identified. "Transformed: EU membership has worked magic in central Europe". "Climate Change: What post-communist countries need to flourish". "Taming the Balkans: Could EU accession do the trick?" "A Bearish Outlook: EU's relations with Russia are bad and may get worse". "Too Big To Handle?: Turkey's application to join EU is causing anxiety on both sides". "The 4% Solution: Getting closer to Europe is good for economic growth". "The Shape of Things to Come: EU should go its different ways". Final section includes: "This survey has argued for best-case result in which EU goes on using the power of membership to change the countries around it for the better. But Europe is much less likely to find the energy/generosity for that strategy, now that it has lost its sense of purpose/confidence in itself."

Robert W. Cox, Review of Susan Strange, The Retreat of the State: The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press 96)(op.cit.)in International Journal Vol.LII/No.2(Spring 97):-favourable report on book of great relevance to future of global society and relations. Cox sees Strange's aim less as trying to describe growing limitations on state power than as identifying what constitutes power, where and why it is shifting, and implications. [Strange lays particular emphasis on power of global finances.] For Cox's own, related, theoretical views see: Production, Power, and World Order: Social Forces in the Making of History(New York: Columbia Univ. Press 87)Theme and Part 1(1-15); Part 2(105-267).

A.W.Cragg"Business, Globalization, and the Logic and Ethics of Corruption" International JournalVol.LIII/No.4 (Autumn 1998):-this essay focuses on the corrosive ethics of corruption, a subject of direct concern to UN global activities. In addition, it specifically identifies a large number of very practical economic and administrative disadvantages for both businesses and governments in condoning bribery, "but only in Third World countries where it is part of the local milieu" . The widespread assumptions: (1)that there is little or no corruption within industrialized countries; (2)that much of the Third World must or can "live by" corruption; and (3)it is possible for MNCs to ensure that their employees can limit their corruption to their activities abroad "in self defence" , are wrong and pernicious.

Gwyneth Cravens Power To Save the World: The Truth About Nuclear Energy(New York: Alfred A.Knopf 07):-valuable source at a time when nuclear power once again gaining global popularity in light of climate change threats from fossil fuel emissions. While text is 450pp long and partly technological/scientific, it appears carefully and honestly drafted, and able to be used "here-and-there" as a source. Editorial summary is itself impressive, e.g."...On the nuclear tour, Cravens converses with scientists from many disciplines, public health and counterterrorism experts, engineers, and researchers who study both the harmful and benign effects of radiation; she watches remote-controlled robotic manipulators unbolt a canister of spent uranium fuel inside a 'hot cell' bathed in eerie orange light; observes the dark haze from fossil-fuel combustion obscuring once-pristine... skies and the leaky, rusted pipes and sooty puddles in a coal-fired plant; glimpses rainbows made by salt dust in the deep subterranean corridors of a working nuclear waste repository. She refutes the major arguments against nuclear power one by one... And she demonstrates how, time and again, political fearmongering and misperceptions about risk have trumped science in the dialogue about the feasibility of nuclear energy. In the end, we see how nuclear power has been successfully and economically harnessed... around the globe to become the single largest displacer of greenhouse gases, and how its overall risks and benefits compare with those of other energy sources. [A]n eloquent, convincing argument for nuclear power as a safe energy source and an essential deterrent to global warming".

Chester A.Crocker & Fen Osler Hampson"Making Peace Settlements Work"Foreign Policy 104 (Fall 96): pp.54-71. - using recent UN experience, both good and bad, article recommends five elements: control the definition of "success"; defer elections if necessary; emphasize disarmament and demobilization; promote new norms and codes of conduct; put effort into economic and social reconstruction since they are crucial.

Barbara Crossette, "Rethinking Population at a Global Milestone" ;Nicholas Wade, "Now, You Can Have 5,999,999,999 Friends" ; "Why Malthus Was Wrong" New York Times 19 Sep 99:-article and notes offeringfacts/ideas on world population. UN says pass 6 billion about 12 Oct 99; growth rate: 1.31%(about 80m)/year or 148 people/ minute; life expectancy: 65 years; current projected world total in 2050: 8.9 billion. Regarding Malthus, substantive point is that innovation has enabled food production to increasemuch faster than was anticipated in 1798. (While population growth cannot produce global famine, seriouslocal food/people imbalances cause 40 million a year to die of hunger.) Article compares population problems/policies of autocratic China(1.2b)and democratic India(1b, but faster growth). China more successful improving human conditions, but many factors affect policy choice/impact.

Barbara Crossette "World Court Chief Faults U.S.Over Its U.N.Dues" New York Times 31 Oct 99:-maybemost stinging rebuke to US for ignoring its treaty obligation to pay UN dues comes from authoritativeAmerican, President of International Court of Justice, Stephen M.Schwebel. Member since 81, Justice has "watched new body and practice of international law evolve" ;supports formation of International Criminal Court;very conscious US took lead obtaining Court's ruling peacekeeping operations bills legally binding. Confirming "no question" of US legal obligation to pay past assessments owes UN, he also argued "Hard to see rational basis for US actions. Other governments baffled at such self-destructivepolicy...International law bound up with increasing integration of international life" .

Barbara Crossette "A U.N. Watchdog Exits to Applause" New York Times 15 Nov 99:-reports very successfulcompletion 5-year term by first head UN Office of Internal Oversight Services. Karl Theodor Paschke, former personnel/ management chief, German Foreign Ministry, appointed USG level as watchdog to fight corruption/mismanagement. Expanded auditing throughout UN/sent inspectors around world/uncovered dollars millions in fraud/abuse. UN now dismisses employees quickly/losses recovered/criminal cases to trial/Annan's management reforms working. Predictably, Paschke praised by US Congress but criticized by some developing nations for coming from rich country, and some major reports blocked. Concluded: UN'sfaults similar to those in other big bureaucracies, even though faces unique challenges(e.g. inpeacekeeping/emergency relief operations/global procurement, where corruption worst).

Barbara Crossette "Smuggling of Iraqi Oil Is Rising, U.N. Is Told" New York Times 24 Mar 00; "Annan Exhorts U.N. Council on 'Oil for Food'for Iraqis" 25 Mar 00; "Security Council Votes to Let Iraq Buy Oil Gear" 01 Apr 00; The Economist 12 Feb 00 "One Man's Joy in Iraq" (41-2):-summaries ignore" current events" unless text has permanent/long-term significance. UN sanctions against Iraq in 00 illustrate extremely well problems raised by chronic sanctions issues, and how they could influence both Iraq and US by 01-03. Among those either inherent from start and/or critical by 00:(1)scale/variety/severity of sanctions imposed(most ambitious UN pressure applied);(2)(dis)unity of SC members over sanctions' aims/targets/costs/means(P5 increasingly split);(3)authority/popularity/mettle/world economic integration/vulnerability/value of target regime(Saddam runs tight political/media system, is personally at threat but tough about others, and holds pretty strong economic hand);(4)strategic importance of target state/its people/friends/resources/military capacity/philosophy(Iraq both very strong/very weak).

Barbara Crossette, "U.N. Warns That Trafficking in Human Beings Is Growing" New York Times 25 Jun 00:-DG of UN Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention claims that trade in people is "fastest growing criminal market in ...world because of...number of people...involved,..scale of profits being generated for criminal organizations - and...its multifold nature. We don't have just sexual exploitation. We don't have just economic slavery[forced labor and debt enslavement]. We have also a lot of exploitation of migrants. And we have classic slavery. If you put all this together...you get the biggest violation of human rights in[world. R]eliable estimates indicate that 200m people may now be in some way under the sway or in the hands of traffickers of various kinds." UN urges possibly giving temporary residence to would-be immigrants who assist in identifying criminals and reintroduction of anti-slavery laws. Economist 24 Jun "Drugs and Slavery in Myanmar" (48):-according to ILO, many of 1m Burmese refugees along Thai border reportincreasing reliance on slavery by Myanmar regime. While ceasefires have been arranged with most ethnic rebel groups, military keeps control only by "using slaves to build defences, roads and bridges. Locals are forced to clear land, act as porters for the army and provide housing. Refugees claim that forced labourers are even made to march along[mined]roads...800,000 or so people...thought[by ILO]to beexploited in this way" . Roger Cohen, "Europe Tries to Turn a Tide of Migrants Chasing Dreams" NYT 02 Jul:-motivated by death of 58 Chinese illegal immigrants in truck container in Dover, England, this article explains how and why EU has replaced North America as the principal destination of asylum-seekers(and unnumbered illegal immigrants). In 1999 30,000 people applied for asylum in US(compared with 127,000 in 1993), while more than 365,000 sought asylum in EU. Main change has been collapse of USSR, opening up of new land routes to Europe from Asia. Moreover "increasingly well-organized criminal groups...have emerged to coordinate smuggled passages into Europe largely closed to legal immigration" . Also: "[P]enaltiesare far less severe than for drugs, the up-front investment much smaller, and the evidence has legs and tends to run away" explains DG of International Organization for Migration. Finally, Europe is relatively cheap to reach illegally - from China about half cost of transport to US. Economist 24 Jun "The Last Frontier" (63-4)adds that about 30m people are smuggled across international borders every year(up to 500,000 into EU; 300,000 into US). This trade is worth $12-30b, most world traffic being handled by about 50 specialized gangs. UK Immigration concludes: "[G]angs have infrastructures, communications and surveillancecapabilities far in excess of anything that...law enforcement agencies in transit and source countries can muster, and...chances of their activities diminishing is negligible" . Elisabeth Rosenthal, "Chinese Town's Main Export: Its Young Men" NYT 26 Jun:-gives detailed firsthand description of how 80% of 20-40 year oldmen of one town, by working illegally in US, have made it very prosperous, although full of "widows" .

Stewart Crysdale, Alan J. C. King, and Nancy Mandell, On Their Own? Making the Transition from School to Work in the Information Age(Montreal & Kingston: McGill-Queen's Univ. Press, 1999). - rapid labor market changes are now global. This also demands rapid change in educational content and methods. This book - basically sociology - examines the resulting changes in the education-work transition. With education/work content undergoing their own transformations, it focuses on: why are so many young people having suchdifficulty finding permanent jobs in a growing economy; and what can be done to ease their transition into work? The conclusion is key factors are: education attained(increasingly need post-secondary), present job level(look ahead), job goal(realistic),innovative career planning(expect regular retraining), stable employment(can be learned), intrinsic satisfaction(can be taught),on-the-job training(eases transition/selection).

Roy Culpeper and Caroline Pestieau edit., Development and Global Governance(Ottawa: North-South Institute/ International Development Research Centre, 1996):-this is the proceedings of a conference of 30 international experts held in Ottawa in 1995 to discuss the interrelationships between development and the governance of the international economy. The agenda related to a coming G-7 Summit on "Reform of the International Financial Institutions" . The meeting drew three main conclusions: (1)instability or uncertainty in exchange rates/capital markets call for strengthening IFIs (IMF with SDRs); (2) the IFIs' outdated methods of governance/mandates demand they be given effective political-level direction(IMF Interim Committee); (3)development aid is inadequate/declining so ODA/ official flows need more careful management with priority given to the world's poorest, to collective world goals, and to good performersamong recipients.

Suzanne Daley," Rising Rate of Mad Cow Disease Alarms Europe" in the New York Times 07 May 00:-showshow hard it is to stop the spread of fatal diseases even with drastic control measures in an interdependent world. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy has just turned up in south-eastern France, having also been detected in native-born cows in 10 other European countries. While the number of continental cases identified is small compared with the 178,000 reported in Britain, those discovered in France have gone from six in 1997 to one weekly in 2000. Moreover the true total of cows (and humans) infected may be much larger as transmission modes and incubation periods remain mysterious. Nevertheless, considerable progress is being made in other respects: Sandra Blakeslee," Clues to Mad Cow Disease Emerge in Study of Mutant Proteins" in NYT 23 May 00:-reports on the information exchanged at an international meeting on the disease. While scientists still do not know how the disease spreads to humans, how many more will die from it, and if a similar epidemic could start in the US spread by infected deer and elk, clues are now being discovered on an almost weekly basis. These are based on an infectious agent called the prion, normal proteins found throughout the body tissues of humans and other animals. For unknown reasons thesesometimes transform themselves into tiny particles almost impossible to destroy, and accumulate in the brains of infected animals/people, destroying cells and leaving spongy holes in the tissue. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease is the human version and could eventually kill tens of thousands, -or die out. So far the death toll is 56 in Britain, 2 in France, 1 from Ireland.

Richard Dawkins, Unweaving the Rainbow: Science, Delusion and the Appetite for Wonder(New York: Houghton Mifflin 98):-assumption is that people are increasingly aware of global scale of many human problems. Yet rapidly expanding knowledge of scientific facts and forces not only created suchawareness, but many global problems themselves. Also science's understanding of human evolution can bring profound feelings of cosmic insignificance and purposelessness. Yet many specialists in fields draw quite different conclusions. Dawkins is one and may well be best person clarifying science for non-experts. His other famous books:Climbing Mount Improbable(New York: W.W.Norton, 96);The Selfish Gene: New Edition(Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 1992);The Blind Watchmaker(Harlow: Longman S&T 86). More thansimply populariser of science, Dawkins has capacity to explain variety of complex and debated conceptsin easily understood way, with amusing examples. His clear priority and speciality is to defend Darwinism, and educate non-specialists about latest scientific thinking on how and why evolution takes place. His 1998 book has particular aim of demonstrating that purely scientific view of life and universe need not be empty/ purposeless, but can be extremely uplifting. However, he offers fascinating new information in several fields. For short(160pp)explanation of evolution and its implications, in Science Masters Series, see River Out of Eden: A Darwinian View of Life(New York: Basic Books 95). Here Dawkins carefully addressesseveral sincere "Creation-" and/or "Purpose-related" critiques of modern evolution and biological theory. He ends discussion of how "replication" transformed Earth with hope that better understanding of our place in universe "might have some beneficial effects upon our normally parochial little consciousnesses" .

Richard Dawkins The Ancestor's Tale: A Pilgrimage to the Dawn of Life(London: Weidenfeld & Nicolson 04/Phoenix of Orion Books 05):-author's description of the 700 pages describing this planet's living history since life began: "Tale is a pilgrimage: a journey of four billion years. We, modern human beings, are the pilgrims, and we are travelling back in time to seek out our ancestors. Simultaneously every other living creature is setting off on its own journey with the same mission. Each pilgrim tells its tale along the way, and covers the processes involved in the unfolding of life on Earth". The 40+ chapters describe in turn the form(s) of life progressively in or from more distant periods, offering the best available scientific knowledge/theory, including of course many fossils, and their estimated dates. While much of the necessary vocabulary used is complex, Dawkins writes generously - and often amusingly - for non-scientist readers. Among the many favourable reviews carried in the introduction is one by John Cornwell of Sunday Times: "Beautifully written... Dawkins's account cites a stunning array of biologists past and present. No other book gives such an impression of sheer intellectual vitality and pluralism among the past century's evolutionary scientists. Virtually every page exemplifies a memorable insight into the strangeness and prodigality of nature, its culs-de-sac and its extraordinary leaps". I have read the long text, but each chapter can be read alone.

Francis M. Deng et al. Sovereignty as Responsibility: Conflict Management in Africa(Washington: Brookings 96):- conclusion of 7-volume project to help governments/international community deal with conflicts in least stable continent(Reader op.cit.).Probes African states' responsibility: balance sovereignty sanctity against transborder political/economic/moral relevance of human rights violations/internal violence. Project concludes UN has unique role to play in Africa as both mediator and healer.

Anthony DePalma "The'Slippery Slope'of Patenting Farmers' Crops" New York Times 24 May 00:-as noted elsewhere, much of controversy over genetically modified organisms(GMO)derives from their high costs in R&D and consequent concern of biotechnology companies to ensure "adequate returns" through patents(or intellectual property rights(IPRs); see Paarlberg)relating to their products. Most infamous patent defenses were "terminator genes" in cereal seeds that could not reproduce, and thus prevented re-seeding(Economist 9 Oct 99).This ensured annual seed purchases -and prohibitive costs in Third World. DePalma reports CIMMYT, Green Revolution's famous non-profit International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center in Mexico, though founded to make high-yield products available free to Third World,has had to start patenting its work as defensive tactic to block attempts by others to patent its discoveries and thus keep small farmers from using them. Before companies/countries contribute to CIMMYT's research, they also require patents in own self-defense. Consolation: reproductive genes will be included in seeds distributed in Third World. Another GMO patent-related development reported in DePalma/Simon Romero "Super Seeds Sweeping Major Markets, and Brazil May Be Next" NYT 16 May. US, Brazil, Argentinatogether grow 80% of world's 157m tonnes of soybeans annually, but have different rules for GMvarieties. In US several conditions must be met: for Monsanto, farmers pay fee for each bag of seed, agree not to save seed for following year ( "terminator" seeds were dropped after outcry)and accept inspections if claim to have stopped using seed. In Argentina, where perhaps 90% of soybean crop genetically altered, but its patents not recognized, effectively no rules. In Brazil, use of altered varieties not(yet)legal, but clearly smuggled in; to 30% of soybeans may already be uncontrolled GMO. "Global regulatory mechanism" obviously needed. Meanwhile, US regulations tightened further. Associated Press reported 03 May "F.D.A. Announces New Steps for Regulation of Biotech Food" according to which US Food and Drug Administration will require biotech companies to notify it at least four months before releasing "new genetically engineered ingredients for food and animal feed" and to provide their research data. FDA will also set" truthful and informative" standards for food processors wanting to label products made with/without such ingredients. Also, mainly response to new consumer concerns, North American retailfood industry/exporters facing novel problems in separating out GM products, because of explosive increase in use/saving. Some major food companies stopped sales of selected GM-based products,according to David Barboza in "Modified Foods Put Companies in a Quandary" NYT 03 Jun. However none has found it feasible to abandon biotech ingredients entirely, since about 70% of US grocery-store food may have been made with genetically altered crops. Related dilemma arisen in Europe. Donald G. McNeil Jr. "Anxiety on Genetically Altered Seed Spreads in Europe" NYT 20 May, reports on divergent reactionsof British, French, Swedish governments on discovering tiny amount in one seed variety in order of long-planted Canadian canola had inadvertently carried genetically-modified trait.

Claudia H.Deutsch "Unlikely Allies Join With the United Nations" New York Times 10 Dec 99:- "Across the world, huge companies that once shrugged off United Nations as worthy, if often ineffectually bureaucratic, do-good agency, now viewing it as valuable partner." Cites many cases of MNC-UN collaboration/usefulness to business, UN/countries getting aid. MNCs increasingly realize UN/UNDP open doors, act as valuable buffer with officials, open new markets. More general cooperation(e.g. human rights/entrepreneurship training)may help promote stability in countries with civil unrest, improve local business technique/experience, create bridges to communities. UN, for its part, gets part of and influenceon vast pool of FDI, ensures access to unique expertise and resources; yet, by not promoting specific companies, guards its neutrality and stimulates competition.

Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected: (1)"[C]ontinental differences in... wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage... even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2) [R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among [and between] continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances]; (3) [C]ontinental differences in area or total population size" which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical.

Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13) 'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings.

Peter Dicken Global Shift: Transforming the World Economy:Third Edition(New York: Guilford Press 98):-500p of well-researched/immensely valuable text. Read through, offers broad/objective look at globalized world production, trade, financial and corporate realities; complex and inter-related driving forces(e.g. intensified competition and technology); huge and changing impact on corporate vs state power, onknowledge, income, employment; net gains/costs for different societies, individuals and institutions; inexorable but variable futures. Consulted selectively, it offers specific analyses of: history, nationality(sic), structures, liaisons, activities of transnational corporations; trends in production, trade and investment; different state powers and policies; technology's many roles; textile/clothing, automobile, electronics, serviceindustries; effects: jobs, LDCs, environment and equity; global governance.

Paul Francis Diehl edit.The Politics of Global Governance: International Organizations in an Interdependent World (Boulder: Lynne Rienner 97):-group of mostly innovative, non-theoretical essays,exploring international organizations from various angles. The articles address: Decision-making; Peace and Security; Economics; Social and Humanitarian issues; but are specific, so necessarily selective. Particularly relevant to this bibliography is the article by Giulio M. Gallarotti on some inherent systemic limitations to IO's (375-414).

Wendy Dobson, "Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis" International Journal Vol.LIV/No.3(Summer 99):-essay pushes reforms of both the global financial system and vulnerable emerging economies, noting that the system has already been made safer by improved financial market operations, and strategies to help such economies integrate into it. "The challenge is to balance the obvious benefits of financialliberalization and open markets with the risks of possible financial instability" (376),and to keep financial and other reform issues separate. The global market should evaluate risks as good national markets do,reduce crises by better risk management, and strengthen the IMF ability to provide liquidity on terms involving best-practice incentives. Parallel national reforms should include avoiding favour for short-term capital, maybe adding capital inflow taxes, strengthening financial institutions, and linking the currencyto a major one.

David Dollar & Lant Pritchett Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, and Why(New York: Oxford Univ. Press 98):-this World Bank Policy Research Report described by The Economist 14 Nov 98(88)as henceforth "the book on foreign aid." Drawing on new research material/long-term surveys, ODA has been "highly effective, totally ineffective, and everything in between" (2).Secret is good governance(for instance in state rebuilding):(1)financial aid really works only in good policy environment;(2)truly wanted improvements in Third World economic institutions/policies key to "quantum leap" in poverty reduction;(3)aid can then complement FDI;(4)value of aid is knowledge that strengthens good policy(most financefungible);(5)active civil society helps lot;(6)in most distorted environments, donors should focus on good advice(particularly to any reformers), not money - presumably extremely important in failed or post-conflict states. Best aid investment is very poor but well-managed countries(India).

David Dollar and Aart Kraay, Growth is Good for the Poor(major and seminal World Bank paper is downloadable from www.worldbank.org/research/growth/absddolakray.htm)reviewed in The Economist 27 May 00 "Economics Focus: Growth is Good" (82):-while there has long been debate about reality, timing, size of any "trickle-down" effect for poor if any country as a whole gets richer, one recent criticism of globalization is that while may make the rich richer, it widens divergence between rich and poor, both between and within countries. Paper, drawn from data on 80 countries over 40 years, makes a number of surprising discoveries:(1)Economic growth raises incomes of poor about as it raises income of everybody else, with very little variation, and at same time.(2) "Kuznets" theory that intra-country inequality increases in early stages of development, then falls later, is not true; timewise, incomes change together.(3)In crises, poor do not suffer bigger falls in income than rich(although they suffer more from equal percentage drop).(4)Globalized world growth does not benefit only rich; rule(1)applied both before and after globalization.(5)Globalization does not increase intra-country inequality; all ships rise with tide.(6)Rule of law, strong property rights, democracy and primary education do not affect incomedistribution, although growth benefits. (7)Cutting inflation or government spending both raise growth andimprove distribution.(8)Increased "social spending" , targeted on poor, has no effect on either growth or distribution.

Paul Doremus et al. The Myth of the Global Corporation(Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press 98):-tests structural and strategic convergence of MNCs(US/Germany/Japan). It finds "enduring diversity...in corporate governance...long-term..financing...national innovation and investment systems" (138). MNCs do most R&D at home; major differences exist in composition and technical activities of foreign affiliates. FDI and intrafirm trade practices consistently diverge. Hence "national institutions and ideologies shape corporate structure" (139)and policies, in spite of increasing global openness and integration. MNCs "createno automatic...mechanisms for regime formation" (145). As domestic power shifts, it may be concentrated globally. "Given scope, nationalist tendencies inherent in[economic]policies that governments...pursue could become more...dangerous" (148).More effective commercial diplomacy(WTO)required.

Margaret P. Doxey United Nations Sanctions: Current Policy Issues: Revised Edition(Halifax: Dalhousie Univ. 99):-containing information up to Apr 99. Appendix offers basic facts about all sanctions imposed under UN Charter(Chap. VII).Text examines four issues subject to debate:(1)Domestic economic costs of sanctions to "sending" states and prospects for burden-sharing. Options: financial help; tariff adjustments;technical/humanitarian assistance; specific help on sanctions enforcement.(2)Mitigation on humanitarian grounds of sanctions-induced hardships in "targets" . Ideally, punishment fits crime but scope for: improving ways to determine need; handling humanitarian exemptions; avoiding abuse through monitoring.(3)Determining scope for direct targeting of leaders and elite groups. Types of targeted sanctions: personal travel restrictions; limit/end international bodies' membership(privileges); limit air links; cultural/sportsboycotts; financial sanctions(freezing assets)-most promising, but speed/information/selection/discipline critical.(4)Improved administration/enforcement. Much effort underway to improve work of Sanctions Committees; humanitarian issues handled better, but to detect/control serious violations of sanctions regimes still strictly limited.

Margaret P.Doxey"Sanctions Through the Looking Glass: The Spectrum of Goals and Achievements" International Journal Vol.LV/No.2(Spring 00):-expert, realistic look at recent UN experience with sanctions, and at current thinking on how they could be improved. (All Chapter VII sanctions to Jan 00 are listed.)Security Council use of sanctions has increased greatly since 1990(earlier it approved only two: Rhodesia, South Africa); hence study of optimum use has also expanded. US has been keenest supporter, but public opinion in many democracies under media pressure, has increased demands governments "do something" about human rights violations - broadening both "targets" and "goals" and changing criteria of success. Political effective might now include not only gaining compliance, but also stigmatizing orcontaining targets, and as means of preventing or deterring certain action. Success is harder to judge, particularly when multiple pressures, to both apply and satisfy. All are analysed. Finally, essay discusses means of focusing sanctions better, not only on elites but away from innocents.

Daniel W.Drezner All Politics Is Global: Explaining International Regulatory Regimes(Princeton & Oxford: Princeton Univ Press 07):-as The Economist 18 Mar 07 admits in specially favourable review "International Relations: An Interconnected World": book is "too nuanced and academic for easy reading", but concludes significantly "Drezner... finds that the challenges of the future will be increasingly transnational. As globalisation intensifies, the rewards for coordination will increase as well. To achieve success, essential not to eliminate international institutions but rather to understand their utility... Key to their success lies in convincing leading governments of the gains from acting in cooperation, rather than isolation, in volatile but interconnected world -message that surely applies well beyond esoteric world of trade". [Another support for my own - tough but essential - global urgency: op.cit. Christopher Spencer]. Suggest you read short Chapter One which summarizes Drezner's book in simplest explanation. "Regulation of global economy is intrinsically important. Markets rely on rules, customs, and institutions to function properly. Global markets need global rules and institutions to work efficiently. The presence or absence of these rules and institutions and their content and enforcement, is the subject of this book. In a globalizing economy, what are the rules? Who makes them? How are they made?"(6). Issue areas analysed by chapters to study relative roles of (top) governments/institutions/NGOs: Internet, International Finance, Genetically Modified Organisms, TRIPS and Public Health.

Peter F. Drucker"The Changed World Economy" Foreign Affairs 64(Spring 86)(768-91):-although Drucker perhaps best known as a management guru, this very broad view has been described as seminal in that itsimply explained totally new characteristics of post-industrial global economy: borders disappear, industry's basic structure and inputs change, knowledge is key. Examples: importance of services has increased relative to manufacturing, where in turn labour/raw materials input declined relative to capital. This has a direct effect on labour - and commodity-dependent LDCs. World demand for many commoditieshas reduced by development of synthetics/substitutes.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. Panel Urges Doubling of Aid to Cut Poverty"New York Times 17 Jan 05:-announces that an"international team[has]proposed a detailed ambitious plan...that it says could halve extreme poverty and save the lives of millions of children and hundreds of thousands of mothers each year by 2015. Report[claims that]drastically reducing poverty in its many guises - hunger, illiteracy, disease - is 'utterly affordable', [but that]to fulfill this goal industrial nations would need to double aid to poor countries, to 0.5% of national incomes from 0.25%".'Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals[MDG]'also urges the easing of trade and"sweeping investments in health, education,rural development, road building, housing and scientific research".Jeffery D.Sachs(op.cit.),appointed head of this UN Millennium Project by UNSG Annan to revive the 2000-agreed 'MDG'promises, is"known ascrusader for the idea that within a generation, rich and poor countries together can end extreme poverty afflicting more than a billion".Other elements are described: the serious diversity of essential program-related policies among both the rich and poor nations, and the surprisingly varied analysis of the plan's realism that is found among aid experts -and British PM Tony Blair(op.cit.). Reuters"U.N. Report Offers Plan to Halve Extreme Poverty by 2015"in NYT 17 Jan 05:-covers same major proposals, although with natural variations in emphasis. Again, divergences among both aid donors and seekers are stressed. It also reports that in Jul 05 G8, and in Sep 05 UNGA will, spotlighting global poverty, set a development agenda.The Environment 22 Jan 05"Development: Recasting the Case for Aid"(69-70):-even longer than the NYT and Reuters analyses of the Sachs-led UN report, but again offering an objective analysis of its critically-important aims and prospects. Initial description of report includes:"Document in full runs to ten supporting volumes and more than 3,000 pages...Overview paper is packed with high-octane analysis andrecommendations, no waffle, not a sentence wasted. Aim is no less than to dispel prevailing pessimism on aid - a deeply entrenched attitude, based on years of disappointment - and to mobilise hundreds of billions of dollars in new help for developing world. In this, it might succeed. Whether it deserves to is another question." Later:"Question now - and it is the right question - is what policy inputs will be required to hit the targets[i.e.MDG final goals]...Given what is at stake, Sach's passion and ambition are entirely warranted - but does approach he advocates make sense?...Looking only at development aid, report argues, you find that aid works: it spurs growth...Good-government precondition is crucial, however, and causes team some difficulty...Poorest countries, including basket-cases of sub-Saharan Africa, aremost deserving by test of need, but tend to be worst governed".Report challenges problem by plugging poorer recipients that nevertheless have good government and by claiming aid itself can improve bad governments, but quick success appears unrealistic in Africa. Warren Hoge"African Crises Take Back Seat to Tsunami, U.N. Relief Chief Says"NYT 28 Jan 05:-Jan Egeland, UN emergency relief coordinator, complained to UNSC that impressive aid being given to those countries suffering from earthquake-produced Indian Ocean tsunami was in fact no more seriously needed than the unmet African needs. Alan Cowell"Pressure Grows for Rich Nations to Redouble Efforts to Aid Africa"NYT 28 Jan 05:-report fromWorld Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, records many more pro-African aid demands than usual.

Celia W.Dugger"U.N. vs Poverty: Seeking a Focus, Quarreling Over the Vision"NYT 14 Sep 05:-this itemleads a discouraging collection of inter-related historical articles, most inevitably summarized by a bit more than their strong titles/introductory sentences. All relate to a globally critical summit of some 170 heads of state/government. They marked seriously the 60th anniversary of the United Nations 14-16 Sep 05 when, vital reforms and international poverty commitments having been discussed, some are adopted- in full or vague status - but many more are both left required and postponed. Dugger:"The United Nations General Assembly(UNGA) meeting today was to have been a rare moment when quest to relieve crushing poverty of a billion people took center stage. But so far that goal has been overshadowed by [current disasters] and squabbling over reform of UN itself. Even debate about world's common agenda on global poverty began on an unexpectedly sour note, centred around goals for healing world's deepest poverty that were to be in meeting's final document. US ambassador, John R. Bolton, initially proposed expunging any reference to specific goals for reducing poverty, hunger and child mortality andcombating pandemic of AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. Known as Millennium Development Goals[MDGs], they emerged from UN conference five years ago. He favored instead citing broad declaration from which goals were drawn. US subsequently relented, but not before US administration's opening in negotiations left some African leaders dismayed... Negotiations at UN got absorbed by issues around UN reform... It is not clear that much new will emerge at UN. World leaders are likely to affirm commitment to push forward with MDGs to halve extreme poverty and hunger, cut child mortality by two-thirds and ensure basic education of each child by 23015, among other things.Those are same broad goals agreed to five years ago"; Warren Hoge"U.N. Adopts Modest Goals on Reforms and Poverty"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNGA unanimously approved scaled-down statement of goals [13 Sep] that Secretary General [UNSG] Kofi Annan said would still give world leaders gathering [14 Sep] basis for recommendation to reform organization and combat poverty. Loud cheers from delegates, however, could not disguise widespread disappointment at weakening of 35-page document"; David E.Sanger & Warren Hoge"Bush Thanks World Leaders and Takes Conciliatory Tone"NYT 15 Sep 05:-President Bush, facing array of world leaders who are deeply divided on how to define terrorism or act against nuclear proliferation/poverty, struck conciliatory tone at UN [14 Sep], describing himself as grateful leader of superpower in recent days... Speech...came hours after UNGA greatly watered down what had once been ambitious plans for institutional change and for commitments to fight terrorism/nuclear arms... He balanced his discussion of need to chase down terrorists with his endorsement of set of antipoverty objectives... 'No nation canremain isolated/indifferent to struggles of others' ... He pressed for UNSC resolution commiting countriesto prosecute - and extradite - anyone seeking fissile materials or technology for nuclear devices... But Bush did not repeat his previous calls to bar any new country from producing enriched uranium orplutonium. In references to goals for poverty reduction, he cited not only MDGs but also another initiative that grew out of summit meeting in Monterrey, Mexico. There, poor nations agreed to fight corruption and improve governance, and rich nations commited to 'make concrete efforts' toward giving 0.7% national income in aid. Bush did not address aid issue, but advocates said they hoped endorsement of Monterray would make harder for US to continue to oppose such aid targets"; Reuters"World Leaders Seek to Invigorate UN at Age 60"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Leaders explore ways to revitalize UN at summit, buttheir bluepoint falls short of UNSG vision of freedom from want, persecution and war... [S]ession marking60th anniversary of world body suffering from corruption scandals and sharp divisions among memberson how to tackle international crises... UNSG in 85p paper in Mar entitled 'In Larger Freedom', addressed challenges for 21st century that required collective action: alleviating extreme poverty, reversing AIDS pandemic, global security, terrorism and human rights. But after bitter negotiations over last few weeks,nearly every bold initiative suffered cutbacks in final 38p document approved by UNGA for endorsementat summit... Still, somewhat emasculated document saved summit from failure. UN officials highlighted initiatives, including new human rights body, Peacebuilding Commission to help nations emerging from war and perhaps most significantly, obligation to intervene when civilians face genocide/war crimes... Butnegotiators failed to agree on how to tackle nuclear proliferation or on definition of terrorism sought by Western nations, and fell short of commitments to greater aid and tearing down trade barriers developing nations wanted"; AP"Annan Appeals to World Leaders at Summit"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"UNSG Kofi Annanappealed [14 Sep] to world leaders...to help restore confidence in world body and act together to meet challenges of new century... Annan said document they will adopt at end of 3-day summit was 'good start'but not 'sweeping and fundamental reform'he proposed. He called for urgent action on tough, unresolved issues. 'Because one thing has emerged clearly from this process on which we embarked two years ago: whatever our differences, in our interdependent world, we stand or fall together', UNSG said.'Whether our challenge is peacemaking, nation-building, democratization or responding to natural or man-made disasters, we have seen that even the strongest among us cannot succeed alone'... In what he call 'a high-risk gamble', UNSG and incoming/outgoing presidents of UNGA decided to drop issues where there was no agreement, choose language for which they thought they could win consent, andpresent clean text to member states. It worked"; AP"Bush Focuses on Terror in Speech to U.N."NYT 14 Sep 05:-"Before skeptical world leaders, President Bush [14 Sep] urged compassion for the needy and pressed global community to 'put the terrorists on notice'by cracking down on any activities that could incite deadly attacks. Bush... was seeking to sell his blueprints for spreading democracy in Iraq and elsewhere, overhauling UN and expanding trade"; AP"Chiefs of U.N. Agencies Appeal to Donors"NYT14 Sep 05:-"UN refugee and food agencies' chiefs said [14 Sep] that international donors are not doing enough to help alleviate shortages of survival rations in refugee camps across Africa. Because of lack of funds, World Food Program has been forced to cut rations for hundreds of thousands of refugees, particularly in West Africa and Great Lakes region in east of continent"; AP"Mexico's Fox OK With U.N. Reform Document"NYT 14 Sep:-"Mexican President Vicente Fox said [14 Sep] that he and the rest of theGroup of 15 developing nations think UN reform document approved this week is a step in the right direction, but stressed it is only first step... The 35-page document is supposed to launch a major reform of UN itself and galvanize efforts to ease global poverty. But to reach consensus, most of text's details gutted in favor of abstract language. UNSG had hoped that in addition to addressing UN overhaul, document would outline specific actions for improving the lot of the poor and tackling genocide, terrorism and human rights. But nations couldn't bridge their difference during negotiations. Group of 15developing nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America was set up to foster cooperation in dealing withinternational groups such as World Trade Organization and the Group of Seven rich industrialized nations"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N. Credibility"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"After a year of mounting criticism,UNSG Annan defended UN [14 Sep] and urged global leaders to restore organization's credibility by adopting broad reforms needed for world to act together to tackle poverty, terrorism and conflict...Instead of a celebration of UN achievements since its founding in ashes of WWII, summit was much more a somber reappraisal of its shortcomings and a debate about how to meet the daunting challenges ofa world becoming moreand more interlinked"; Reuters"World Leaders United on Terrorism"NYT 14 Sep 05:-"World leaders united [14 Sep] on need to ban incitement of terrorism but fell short of ambitions forfundamental reform of UN...Negotiations on the summit document world leaders are to endorse dropped disarmament proposals from Norway and South Africa, backed by about 80 nations. US objected to calls for nuclear disarmament but stressed danger of terrorists and rogue states obtaining unconventional weapons... In veiled criticism of US, world's richest nation, Dutch PM... said Europeans had agreed to boost development aid spending but 'we need to see more equal burden-sharing'"; AP"Annan Seeks to Restore U.N.'s Credibility"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Bitter differences among UN member states have blocked many crucial UN reforms, and nations must act boldly to restore the world body's credibility, UNSG told summit of world leaders... Coming into the summit, diplomats had to dilute a document on goals for tackling rights abuses, terrorism and UN reform because they couldn't settle their disputes"; Financial Times"Shifting Positions at the UN World Summit"NYT 15 Sep 05:-"Fact that US and China have both become simultaneous aid donors and recipients says much about changing global society. World ismuch more diffuse in power than traditional stereotypes allowed... US is rich, and its military power iscommanding, but US ability to impose its will on world is limited... China, as well as India, Brazil and some other developing countries, is gaining economic power, especially through rapid absorption ofadvanced technologies and emergence of home-grown scientific prowess... [E]verything points to vastinternational diffusion of scientific expertise in coming decades... US will likely become more rather than less engaged as donor country in Africa and elsewhere... [I]dea of a US empire astride the world in 21st century will go... [C]ertainly the most important issue, hardly noted at [UN] world summit, is that rise of China, India, and other regional powers will intensify growing and multiple pressures on global environment and resource base... As a crowded world of 6.5 billion on its way to 9 billion people by mid-century, and with rising risks/complexities all around us, we are all both donors and recipients now. We are all in this together, and we had better get used to that reality"; The Economist 15 Sep 05"United Nations Reform: Better Than Nothing"(p.33 in 17 Sep NA issue):- "Annan sought to explain why a draftdeclaration on UN reform and tackling world poverty, to be endorsed by some 150 heads of state/government... has turned into such a pale shadow of proposals he himself put forward. 'With 191 member states' , he sighed, 'its not easy to get agreement'. Most countries put the blame on US, in the form of its abrasive new ambassador, John Bolton, for insisting at end of Aug on hundreds of last-minute amendments and line-by-line renegotiation of a text most others had thought was almost settled. Buta group of middle-income developing nations... also came up with plenty of last-minute changes of their own. Risk of having no document at all... was averted only by marathon talks... The 35-page final document not wholly devoid of substance. It calls for creation of a Peacebuilding Commission to supervise reconstruction of countries after wars; replacement of discreditied Commission on Human Rights by supposedly tougher Human Rights Council; recognition of a new 'responsibility to protect'peoples from genocide and other atrocities when national authorities fail to take action, if necessary by force; and 'early'reform of UNSC. Although much pared down, all these proposals have at least survived.Others have not. Either...so contentious they were omitted altogether, such as sections on disarmament/non-proliferation/ICC, or they were watered down to little more than empty platitudes: no longer evenmentions vexed issue of pre-eminent strikes. [M]eanwhile, section on terrorism condemns it 'in all its forms and manifestations, committed by whomever, wherever and for whatever purposes' , but fails to provide clear definition US wanted... Now up to UNGA to flesh out document's skeleton proposals and propose new ones. But its chances of success appear slim"; Steven R.Weisman"A Frustrating Week at the U.N. for the White House Team"NYT 16 Sep 05:-"[R]ebellion by countries outside the ambit of Europe and US appears to have thwarted some of the changes sought at UN. Bush officials insist that they arepleased with some of the changes adopted by UNGA, notably a broad definition of terrorism. They saytried to address wishes of developing world by agreeing at last minute to endorse specific goals to increase foreign aid. But when it came time to adopt stringent budgetary changes at UN,cementing fiscaland personnel authority with Secretariat under Kofi Annan and taking some of it away from UNGA, thevotes were not there. Neither were there enough votes to scrap UN Human Rights Commission and replace it with a council that would not be led by countries like Sudan or Cuba, which US and its allies consider bad actors in human rights sphere. The scandals of last couple of years in oil-for-food problem in Iraq, with favoritism and corruption in awarding of contracts, might have been avoided if UNSG's office had exercised greater control over the budget and personnel, now in hands of a committee made up of all members of UNGA. 'The way UN is run, the vast number of less developed countries sitting in UNGA hold the power of the purse', a diplomat at UN said. 'A lot of developing countries see giving moreauthority to UNSG as ploy by US and Europeans to take more control of UN'"; AP"Rice Urges 'Revolution of Reform'at U.N."NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UN must make itself more relevant to tackle 21st century problems... Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said [17 Sep]. 'In this new world, we must again embrace challenge of building for the future'. World leaders...adopted watered-down version of proposed reforms...'Time to reform UN is now', she said. 'And we must seize this opportunity together'... 'No cause, no movement, and no grievance can justify intentional killing of innocent civilians and noncombatants. This isunacceptable by any moral standard'. UNSG [had] said condemnation of terrorism must be unqualifiedand that... should 'forge a global counterterrorism strategy that weakens terrorists and strengthens international community'... Rice called on rich countries to help poor ones with development assistance... She said new [human rights] council... should have more credibility. [That] means should 'never, never empower brutal dictatorships to sit in judgement of responsible democracies' ... Rice has locked arms with Annan on reform, declaring him an effective manager, with whom she can work closely. 'I havenever had a better relationship with anyone than Kofi Annan', Rice said, thereby separating US concerns about management flaws and corruption from world body's top diplomat"; Warren Hoge"Bolton and U.N. Are Still Standing After His First Test"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Fellow ambassadors say they are impressed with[John] Bolton's work ethic, his knowledge of his brief, clarity in declaring it and his toughness as anegotiator... Some delegates, however,faulted him for emphasizing what US would never accept, saying it ended up encouraging more active opposition to US positions. They complained he devoted too much time to talking about US 'red lines' and about the red pen he had in his pocket at the ready. Those who feared Bolton came with devil's horns thought they saw them spring forth 3 weeks ago when he submitted more than 400 substantive amendments and deletions, and ordered up a line-by-line renegotiation of summit document. One of recommendations was to eliminate all mention of a series of antipoverty measures called MDGs. Surprise attack on cherished standard sent shock waves across UN where officials had grown hopeful that Bush administration's hostility to UN had significantly lessened,particularly after supportive comments from [Rice] and State Department opposition to calls for US to withhold its UN dues. A week later, phase was restored at Rice's direction, and Bush declared in his speech to UNGA, 'We are committed to MDGs' . So a question arose about whether Bolton had beencarrying out traditional mission of executing State Department policy or originating his own more assertive view... John G.Ruggie,...Harvard... said he thought Bolton's approach had emboldened opponents of US priorities, like reforming UN management structure to give more power and flexibilityto UNSG. 'After Bolton's bombshell, they were able to make case that this is why we have to stand firm, because if we give great discretionary authority to UNSG, danger US will roll over him, and behind him always stands Congress willing to withhold funding', he said. Bolton said purpose in calling for line-by-line renegotiation was to avoid having text by 'nameless, faceless textwriters' , a reference to writing staff of UNGA president Jean Ping of Gabon. But in the end such a text proved to be only way to get consensus. Three weeks of wrestling with language had left document on [13 Sep a.m.] with 27 unsolved issues and 149 phrases in brackets, meaning they were still in dispute. Decision was made to presentambassadors with final version refined by Ping, and it was that text UNGA endorsed [13 Sep p.m.], just hours before arrival of world leaders. Much of positive reaction to Bolton has come from how he did not live up to his negative reviews"; AP"Chavez Criticizes U.N. Reforms in Speech"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez criticized UN reforms [17 Sep] saying they [section of Peacebuilding Commission] would permit powerful countries [to] invade developing ones whose leaders are considered a threat"; Reuters"Annan Defends Summit"NYT 17 Sep 05:-"UNSG put brave face on [17 Sep]on modest reforms to the work of UN, but [Rice] said world body needed nothing short of revolution to become real force... Annan sought to highlight the positive... 'Scale of this achievement seems to have been missed by some...So let's make sure we live up to our promises to the world's poor'. Among gainswere unprecedented agreement on international responsibility to intervene to protect civilians from genocide, establishment of peace-building commission to help nations recover from war and areaffirmation of goals set in 2000 to halve poverty by 2015. But the document fudged definition of what constitutes terrorism, reached no agreement on how to deal with spread of weapons of mass destructionand did little on far-reaching reforms to UN's bureaucracy or its decision-making. 'UN must launch lasting revolution of reform', [Rice] said. Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who chairs 53-memberAfrican Union, said terrorism could not be 'justified under any circumstances' . But he said a dangerous correlation existed between grinding poverty and political instability"; Reuters"Like Fixing the Weather, Council Reform Eludes UN"NYT 18 Sep 05:-"Closest UN came to expanding 15-member UN Security Council(UNSC) was considered a plan by Germany, Japan, India and Brazil last spring. But moment came and went without a vote. National rivalries across and within each regional group run high, although...pledged to do something by end of year... Leaders from four candidates, known as Group of Four(G-4)... decided to put their resolution back on table. But participants at the session said there was no strategy of how or when to do this... UNSG, after decade of debate, urged UN members in Mar to come to decision world leaders could endorse, arguing that UNSC, which decides on war and peace, sanctions and peacekeeping, still reflected balance of power at end of WWII. But 35-page document world leadersendorsed on UN reforms had only one sentence on need for 15-member UNSC to become 'more broadly representative, more efficient and transparent'. On this, compromise nearly impossible as UNSC seats meant winners and losers, with each candidate having drawn enough opposition to prevent resolution from gaining two-thirds vote in 191-member UNGA. UNSC currently has 10 nonpermanent seats, rotating for two-year terms, and five permanent members with veto power - US, Russia, Britain, China, and France, considered WWII victors. To begin UNSC expansion, 191-member UNGA must approve a framework,without names of candidates, by two-thirds vote, with each member casting one vote. Last step in process is UN Charter change, which must be approved by national legislatures, and here current five permanentmembers have veto power... Brazil, Germany, India and Japan, whose plan also called for two permanent seats from Africa [Egypt? South Africa?], had hoped for deal with 53-member African Union, which has a similar proposal. But Africans insisted new permanent members have veto power, which the four aspirants dropped because of opposition from current five UNSC powers"; AP"Leaders at U.N. Seek Anti - Terror Treaty"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders at UNGA urged quick adoption of comprehensive global treatythat would put words into action. But one issue in particular is causing trouble - how to define terrorism amid concern independence struggles would be targeted. [R]esolution accepted unanimously by UNSC on sidelines of UN summit last week also called upon all states to prohibit and prevent terrorism and deny a safe haven to anyone considered guilty of such conduct. But delegates stressed need for abroader convention that would serve as a framework for governments to work together to curtailinternational terrorism"; AP"U.N. Assembly Focuses on World's Poor"NYT 19 Sep 05:-"Leaders fromdeveloping nations took speaker's platform on second day of annual UNGA debate to criticize rich countriesfor not doing enough to ease plight of world's poorest people. Speakers from Africa, Asia and Latin America said [18 Sep] they were encouraged by document adopted at three-day summit renewing commitments to alleviate poverty, but said they would withhold final judgment until rich nations make good on their vows... Leaders of poor nations made clear that they were not impressed with progress made so far. A week ago, UN report said about 40% of world's people still struggle to survive on less than $2/day. Jamaica's PM, speaking on behalf of Group of 77 developing countries, repeated what has been largely acknowledged by many UN and outside officials: world nowhere close to meeting the development goals"; Reuters"UN Refugee Boss Says World Tackling Past Failures"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"International community has woken up to tragedy of the millions who are refugees in their own country and begun to act, head of UN refugee agency[UN High Commissioner for Refugees] said. Internal refugees - known as internally displaced people (IDPs) - number 20-25million, more than double the nine million refugees who are recognized as such because they have crossed a border, and their plight is often just as bad, said UNHCR... UN was finalizing a more vigorous approach to a problem which is particularlyacute in sub-Saharan Africa... Crux of the new policy was that for first time UN agencies, and otherhumanitarian organizations, given specific roles and responsibilities - for which they could be held to account - in handling any IDP crisis. In case of UNHCR, which already handles some IDP situations on an ad hoc basis, it would manage camps, provide shelter and tackle issues of protection for those considered to be in danger of persecution. Move should also be seen in context of changing international attitudes to sovereignty, with recent UNGA resolutions stressing obligations governments had to protect their citizens - indicating a more assertive stance on the part of global body"; AP"U.N. Envoy Says Reforms Have Started"NYT 28 Sep 05:-"President Bush's hard-charging ambassador to UN, [John R.Bolton,] told skeptical members of Congress [28 Sep] US 'didn't get everything we wanted'in agreement to reform UN bureaucracy, but it is a start... Bolton cast US vote for watered-down reform document with obvious disappointment after weeks of wrangling. Document backed off bureaucratic and other changes... Bolton is expected to follow up with new resolutions, but it is not clear how muchappetite UN diplomats will have for subject now. The House has passed measure... that establishes a timetable for reform and ties progress to payment of US dues. Senate has not passed measure. Bushadministration does not want to use dues as leverage"; AP"Japan Rethinking Plan for Security Council"NYT 30 Sep 05:-"Japan has warned Congress that US legislation seeking to withhold UN dues could lead Japanese lawmakers to take similar action, possibly resulting in loss of millions of dollars to world body...Japan pays 19.5% of annual UN budget of about $2billion, second only to US, which pays about 22%".

Celia W.Dugger"Overfarming African Land Is Worsening Hunger Crisis"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"The degradation of farmland across sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated at an ominous rate over past decade, deepening hunger crisis that already afflicts more than 240m Africans, according to a study released [30 Mar].Three quarters of Africa's farmland severely depleted of basic nutrients needed to grow crops, compared with 40% just a decade ago, study found. African farmers can afford only fraction of fertilizers needed to replenish their increasingly barren fields. Traditionally, farmers cleared land, grew crops for a few harvests, then let fields lie fallow for 10 or 15 years to rejuvenate as they moved on to clear more land... But as they try to feed rapidly growing population, farmers instead grow crop after crop, sapping soil's fertility.'Topsoil is blown away by wind and washed away by rains' , said president International Fertilizer Development Center, nonprofit agricultural aid organization which produced study. If this process continues unabated, crop yields in Africa will fall as much as 30% in next 15 years, even as region'spopulation continues to grow rapidly... Africa... likely to face more frequent famines and become evermore dependent on food aid/imports. Farmers... increasingly clearing forests as well as savannas...Already, farmland in Africa yields less than a third amount of grain of that in Asia and Latin America... 'Wemust feed our soils' , said Nigeria's president... Jun meeting on Africa's fertilizer needs expected to drawleading experts... as well as donors. Foreign aid aimed at improving agricultural productivity in Africadeclined sharply in 1990's and has begun to recover only in recent years. About two-thirds of Africa's750m people depend on agriculture for income/employment. Fertilizer... far too expensive for Africa's small and often impoverished farmers - costs two to six times world average. African farmers use less than 10% as much as Asian farmers do. Lowering price no simple task... Roads make transportation difficult/costly... Green revolution to Africa would require: functioning road network/credit for farmers/ extension agents to teach new methods/ better irrigation/ retailers to sell fertilizers/ improved seed varieties... Would also mean combating corruption". Wealthiest countries have pledged to increase aid to Africa.

Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08):-the number of substantial essays and broad publications being written on climate change globally by either science-specialists or policy-concerned writers has become large in 2009. The widely-known author of this book, however, argues that the military impact of a warmer world has not been discussed publicly, even if analyses have been probed. The following is therefore his rationale of publication: "In a number of the great powers, climate change scenarios are already playing a large and increasing role in the military planning process. Rationally, you would expect this to be the case, because each country pays its professional military establishment to identify and counter 'threats' to its security, but the implications of their scenarios are still alarming. There is a significant probability of wars, including even nuclear wars, if we ever reach the range of +2 to +3 degrees Celsius hotter. Once that happens, all hope of international cooperation to curb emissions and stop the warming goes out the window"(from second page of his Introduction and dust-cover). The text contains two elements of special interest. The first consists of seven short but credible and worrisome scenarios, each dated some time in the future, and describing violent events in a region suffering from the experience of climate change. The other is the author's carefully quoted experts' views on technical details, obtained at his many 2008 personal interviews.

Gregg Easterbrook A Moment on the Earth: The Coming Age of Environmental Optimism(New York: Penguin 95):- environmentalist concerned with rate of population growth etc. nevertheless argues: those who overstate likelihood, scale or imminence of eco-disaster will ultimately hurt their own case. For somewhat tongue-in-cheek argument that doom scenarios come in predictable cycles, plus Simon/Club of Rome debate(Meadows op.cit.)see "Environmental Scares" The Economist 20 Dec 97(19-21).For later/more objective books on history of man's effect on environment, and related US political developmentsrespectively, favourable Reviews in Economist 18 Nov 00 "The Environment: Earth Shattering" (101-2).Books: John R. McNeill Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World(New York: Norton 00);Philip Shabecoff Earth Rising: American Environmentalism in the 21st Century(New York: Island Press 00).Both expect major eco-activity now.

Erik Eckholm "U.S. and China Agree on Steps to Fight Drugs" New York Times 20 Jun 00:-Barry McCaffrey,director of White House drug-control policy, made unprecedented tour of China/Vietnam/Thailand to expand bilateral anti-drug cooperation. Reports that in Beijing he signed formal agreement to share information/evidence related to drug smuggling. Two already cooperated to stop illegal drug shipments, but both sides predicted more wide-ranging collaboration since face common serious novel problems of drug manufacture/use. Main concerns heroin and methamphetamine with latter fast-rising threat now produced in both countries. US/China may soon share intelligence in several areas: drugs-related/money-laundering/even weapons-smuggling. Associated Press "US Says Speed Is Worst Drug Menace" NYT 23 Jun:-picked up story in Bangkok. Here both sides agreed greatest menace methamphetamine/ "speed" sinceeasy to make/offers criminal organizations bigger profits than even heroin. Speed in Thailand mostlyproduced by ethnic armies in Myanmar(Burma)and poses new challenge following Thais' "enormous success" in reducing opium cultivation: estimate 600m speed pills will smuggle into Thailand from Myanmar this year. Meanwhile The Economist 24 Jun "A Tidal Wave of Drugs" (42):-reports growing problems in Caribbean. Once again become favoured route of Colombian drug traffickers. US officials estimate almost200 tonnes of cocaine were shipped through Caribbean islands to US last year, increase of 75% over 97, overwhelming control efforts. Some 67 tonnes transited Haiti in 99 without single conviction. "Economics against drug fighters" -tonne of cocaine fetches $100m in New York - more than entire annual government revenue of smaller islands. Societies pay in growing crime/distrust/corruption/intimidation/weapon imports. But relentless demand ensures relentless supply...

The Economist 08 Mar 97 "The Future of Warfare" (21-4):-although many specialized/technical sources on subject, text beautifully summarizes current military capacities and implications. In part complementary to James Adams(op.cit.).

The Economist 14 Mar 98(71):"Moonrakers: Who Own the Moon?".- discovery of water on the moon makes its exploitation much more feasible, and revives the issue of ownership. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty states the moon belongs to all mankind, but is legally vague. An attempt in 1979 to draft a Moon Agreement using the same approach as LOS seabed principles failed. Commercial options are already under study in the US.

The Economist 09 May 98 (79-81): "Repositioning the WHO: The World Health Organization is About to be Given a Much-Needed Kick in the Backside". - article gives a gloomy description of the management problems accumulated by the WHO, particularly under the last Executive Director, Hiroshi Nakajima. These problems are reportedly already being tackled energetically by his successor, Gro Harlem Brundtland. Most badly needed are central control, transparency, and better relations with the World Bank and the private sector.

The Economist 06 Jun 98:"The Bank for International Settlements is Trying to Change Its Ways"(69-70):-this article questions the value of the world's oldest(1930)multilateral financial institution, which has acted as both a private banker to central bankers, and a policy coordinator. Originally European, it first addedUS, Japan and Canada(8 out of 11 board members are still European)and in 1996 admitted nine second-class members, who are not in the G10. Recently, while emphasis has shifted to stabilizing the international financial system by strengthening financial regulations, BIS had little influence on the Asian crisis.

The Economist 13 Jun 98 "The UN and Drugs" (45-6):-UNGA drug summit(30 HoG; 150 states)whose aim of eliminating production in decade"seems quixotic".Drugs are now fourth largest business globally($400b per year)exceeded only by cars/oil/tourism(218m drug takers). Those for legalization lack support/evidence. "Pot on Prescription" (54):-discusses problems raised by drugs which have both medical and recreational uses(morphine and -under study- cannabis). "St Vincent: All This and Drugs" (37):-illustrates financial/economic dependence of many mini-states on drugs. Islands reportedly transit 10% of US cocaine imports, and have big marijuana exports.

The Economist 13 Jun 98 (13-4): "In Defence of the Demon Seed: Genetically Modified Foods".- editorial results from EU objections to import of genetically engineered plants from North America, but has global implications. It supports imports as being no different from products of traditional plant-breeding, but recommends more scientific and educational information. "Food Fights" (79-80) describes the actual process involved, widespread with some US crops. Relatively simple, it offers significant yield and viability gains - thus critical for LDCs. 20 Feb 99: - "Frankenstein Foods" (17) Editorial again argues, following an uproar in the British press, that "Genetically modified foods can deliver great benefits. It would be wrong to slow their development." "Seeds of Discontent" and "Genetically Modified Free Trade" (75-6) report on the scientific, media and trade debates, and argue that concerns over safety are misplaced; the beneficiaries are the patent-holders, farmers, and the environment.

The Economist 18 Jul 98: "Funds for the Fund" (19), "To the Rescue" (65-6) and "A Peek Inside the IMF's Vaults" (66). - articles relate the IMF's assistance to Russia and its major Asian loans to the Fund's need for more credit. Third article explains in lay terms how the Fund is financed. The Editorial takes the US Congress to task for not providing more essential credit, for political reasons. "If the Fund runs out of money ... the next emerging-market collapse could trigger a default that would spill over, fatally, to all other emerging markets. And since rich countries now account for barely half of world output, that could easily mean a global slump."(19). (Congress must start reading The Economist!)

The Economist 08 Aug 98: "A Bit of Respect, Please"(17); "Reforming the United Nations" (19-22).-sympathetic editorial and major essay both express hope that the UN's authority can be bolstered. Its reputation was damaged by Security Council's misguided (in)actions regarding the UN's unclear peace-making roles, and particularly by the crippling US non-payment of its financial obligations. Both can and should be cleared up quickly. S-G Annan gets good marks for his reforms, but is urged to press on - maybe with a "big bang" approach to problems like the North-South split, budget, Council reform, and System's unity. Article suggests that UN concentrate on tackling global tasks it does best.

The Economist 07 Nov 98 "Environmental Policy: Hot Market" (65):-useful/somewhat surprising background "sitrep" on Nov 98 Buenos Aires UN conference on global warning. While key developing countries(China and India)continue to refuse even voluntary emission reductions, OECD forward movement now encouraged by major corporations - including oil companies. Current focus is on creating internationalmarket to trade emission rights -strongly pushed by US as most flexible and least expensive solution(Grubb op.cit.), but also proposed for intra-firm deals. [Bush of course took anti-Kyoto Protocol position in general.]

The Economist 14 Nov 98: "The International Euro" (89-90).-article examines the probable global role and influence of the euro, particularly vis-a-vis the dollar. Clearly the euro will be a major international currency. The combined 1997 GDP of the initial euro-11 countries almost matches that of the US, while their share of international trade(outside the euro area)is larger than the US share. Yet the dollar is now the main currency used for world trade, investment and national reserves. The international effects of the euro's introduction are thus debated. Some welcome much of world's assets becoming denominated in euros; others fear 1930's-like instability with two semi-dominant currencies. Is there need for formal international coordination? By whom?

The Economist 28 Nov 98: "A Deluge of Information" (86): - fortuitously, a detailed digital atlas of Honduraswas completed just before Hurricane Mitch flooded the country. Compiled by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, it contains 90 layers of information: soil types, crop distribution, climate, population, topography and all infrastructure. Since the flood it has been continuously updated and can play a key role in restoring the country's agricultural capacity. This type of technology is likely to play an increasingly important role in disaster relief globally, and an international disaster information network is proposed.

The Economist 16 Jan 99 "A Global War Against Bribery" (Edit.19;22-4):-message: "For first time, there iscampaign to treat corruption as global problem about which, perhaps, something can be done" .OECD convention(Kaufmann op.cit.)making bribery of foreign public officials a crime is coming into force; World Bank and IMF both taking action and giving LDCs advice(Ahmed op.cit.).Corruption's high cost for all affected now known, and reaction more coordinated.

The Economist 13 Feb 99: "The World Bank: Back in the Driving Seat" (71-2): - There was some thought the World Bank and International Finance Corporation (IFC)could become redundant as FDI poured into the Third World. This has has ended with investors' new caution about even the best NICs: private capital flows to LDCs fell by more than $100 billion in 1998. While the World Bank Group cannot replace this amount, it is helping LDCs regain access to capital in two ways: by creating new regional or national Funds jointly with private investors; by guaranteeing the principal on selected issues of Third World bonds.

The Economist 20 Feb 99 "Europe's Smuggled Masses" (45-6):-illegal "economic" migration has been UN concern for many years. Increasing divergence between standards of living in "rich" and "poor" countries andwider awareness of this fact has been expected to increase problem. Article describes what may be world's largest and potentially most vexing flow; estimates: at least 400,000 now smuggled into EU each year. Several routes are used by professional smugglers: by sea from Morocco to Spain, or from Albania or Tunisia to Italy; by land from Sarajevo via Slovenia to Italy or Austria, from Istanbul via Ukraine and Poland, or via Rumania, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic to Germany; alternatively from Greece into Macedonia and on, or from Russia into Finland. "Many" smuggled are Albanians, Kurds, Afghans, Bangladeshis, Iraqis, Iranians. Organized "trade" often ends in asylum demands.

The Economist 27 Feb 99 "World Financial Regulation" (74-5):-establishment by G7 finance ministers of a forum comprising 35 financial organizations "to assess the issues and vulnerabilities affecting theglobal financial system and to identify and oversee the actions needed to address them" .Will meet twice a year(expert groups could meet more often), but only sanction is peer pressure. LDCs are not included initially, but maybe later.

The Economist 06 Mar 99: "Drowning in Oil" (19)and "Cheap Oil: The Next Shock?" (23-5): - an editorial and a major essay on the prospects and implications of oil remaining cheaper in real terms than in 1973 (the first OPEC oil shock). On the basis of normal long-term commodity price trends and lower production costs, the price will probably stay low (currently $10 a barrel ). The reason is that since OPEC forced prices up, and kept them high by limiting production, higher-cost fields outside the Middle East became economic. Now domestic budget pressure on Gulf producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, may make them ignore unworkable quotas totally and produce whatever they can sell. This could drive prices as low as $5 a barrel and make some other fields uneconomic. While unlikely to raise global demand greatly (owing to concern over CO2, more natural gas use, and new energy-saving techniques), it would increase world dependence on an unstable region.

The Economist 20 Mar 99 "Money Laundering: Cleaning Up?" (78):-(update 26 Jul 97 op.cit.).SmallBritish "tax-haven" dependencies, suspected as major locations for money-laundering -mainly of drug-generated funds -will be required to tighten financial systems. Six Caribbean territories implement UN anti-money-laundering scheme as international pressure mounts from UN/OECD/EU/G-7. However OECD reportnotes cash can be laundered through wide variety of frauds, involving lawyers, accountants, auditors -not just banks. US names Antigua "one of most attractive centers in Caribbean for money launderers" ;Russiancrooks reportedly favour south Pacific islands. All money-laundering problems exacerbated byglobalization and complicated by sovereignty.

The Economist 27 Mar 99: "No School, No Future" (45-6): - a gloomy essay, contrasting the critical importance of education for raising living standards in the Third World with recent negative trends in illiteracy and lack of primary schooling in many countries, particularly Africa. The value of education is now understood almost universally: its elevating and enriching effects for individuals; the health, nutrition, productivity and fertility-rate improvements for families; and its developmental and multiplying impact on economies. Yet UNICEF reports 40m children in sub-Saharan Africa get no basic teaching, with per-child spending only half that of 20 years ago. The uneducated may reach 75m by 2015. The principal reasons: reduced/misallocated resources. Proposal: transfer funds from debt-servicing, defence, and higher education, and change attitudes on girls' education. Cost: $2b/year more would get every African child in school.

The Economist 27 Mar 99: "OPEC: Still Kicking?" (63-4): - an analytical essay predicts the likely failure of a new accord among 12 large oil producers, including several outside OPEC, to cut their output by 2.1mbd over the next year. Some argue this agreement should be taken seriously because, unlike many short-lived OPEC ministers' deals, it was a treaty among heads of state. Oil prices have already risen. Yet most oil producers' urgent need for increased incomes, the 12's disparate membership(Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Norway),delayed-marketing options, the irresponsibility of Iraq and Iran, and the desperate straits of Russia and Nigeria, all create an overwhelming probability of non-compliance. The Saudis may be unable to hold the line again.

The Economist 17 Apr 99 "A Raw Deal for Commodities" (75-6):- commodity exporters have long complained about their negative terms of trade relative to manufactured imports. Yet commodity cartelshave all collapsed. Economist's commodity-price index starts in 1845. It proves long-term trend wasdownward in absolute terms: index now is only 20% of its level in 1845. Besides current financial crises,two long-term factors:(1) "A shift in economic output from heavy metal-bashing industries to services and information technology means that any given increase in GNP produces smaller increase in raw materials demand;(2)Technological advances have both increased supply of commodities, through higher rates of mineral extraction and crop yields; and reduced demand, as plastic has replaced metal, or fibre-optics have replaced copper wire" (Drucker op.cit.). Producers also tend to overshoot. Economist 12 Jun 04 "All-Items Index" (101)is a back-pages' chart on commodities' prices 1996-2004. It shows that at the time of this 1999 article they had already dropped to only 70% of their level in 1995 and were going to drop even lower by late2001(62%). Since then, however, the trend has been a rapid climb back to their 1995-8 level. The comment says:" Our dollar-based commodities index rose to a seven-year high in March, thanks in part to Chinese demand for raw materials. Shrinking grain and soyabean stocks also boosted prices" (Grain 12 Jun 04: op.cit.).

The Economist 01 May 99 "The End of Privacy: The Surveillance Society" (Edit.15-6;21-3):-the power of computers to gather personal information, and store/analyse/retrieve/disseminate it electronically/ globally, will continue expanding. New capacities will involve: government/marketing/ banking/ surveillance (for state/private intelligence/ arms verification/law enforcement/security control)/personalhealth/ DNA/ work/movements/contacts/tastes/credit/legal records. Policing data is not feasible; data "gates" or encryption doubtful; intense debate inevitable. "People [must] just assume one simply has no privacy[-]one of greatest[modern]social changes.[L]aws will be used not to obstruct recording/collecting information, but to catch those who use it to do harm[,thus producing]more lawful security."

The Economist 01 May 99:" Sticky Labels" (Genetically Modified Organisms - GMOs)(75-6): - this subject (The Economist 13 Jun 98 op. cit. has previous articles) became a global UN issue when the WTO decided to use Codex Alimentarius standards in international disputes over food trade. Codex was established by the FAO and WHO to recommend minimum global standards on food safety. The EU ban on imports ofUS hormone-treated beef defies Codex's scientific assessment that it is safe; hence the WTO rules it anillegal trade barrier. The EU riposte is a proposal for mandatory labelling of any food containing GMOs "simply to provide choice" . However, repeated and effective testing/segregation could add 30% to costs,hardly any processed food now is 100% GMO-free, and new GMOs offer major human health benefits, so a "fix" is yet possible. For a report on the scientific debate on hormone-treated meat see The Economist15 May 99(94).

The Economist 08 May 99 "Come Together, If You Can" (48):-summarizes report by UN Development Programentitled "Global Public Goods" (Oxford Univ. Press 99)urging greater global information exchange, particularly for benefit of poor who suffer most for lack of it in information society. Proposal is to systematically record common problems and solutions, and to assess every nation's total exports, including ideas/patents/pollution/diseases/crime/other `externalities' so that "fuller picture could...be drawn of inequality/depletion of natural resources/financial instabilities/other threats to development" . "Knowledge bank" could then be set up to give poor states better access to new ideas and technology, assist policymakers, and promote international cooperation, e.g. for law enforcement. Compiling information clearly in global interest, and(computer)distribution costs are small.

The Economist 08 May 99:" Free Trade in Peril" (12) and "Trade: At Daggers Drawn" (17-20): -both the editorial and essay claim the current US-EU disputes over bananas, beef and genetically modified foods (all Economistop. cit.) threaten not only the WTO but the future of free trade. The disputes are updated, but emphasis is oninstitutional and economic issues: (1) with globalization, WTO members are no longer debating external tariffs or NTBs whose costs can be "balanced" . Current disputes derive from politically sensitive domestic policy issues such as food safety and environmental protection, and hence are much less negotiable; (2) the WTO is deadlocked over the choice of Director-General, largely along North-South lines; (3)both US and EU find it hard to make concessions now(elections/economic problems); (4) the WTO is making quasi-judicial, rulings on political issues, and may be ignored. Perhaps it needs (IMF-type) Executive Committee. Letters to The Economist 22 May 99 from the Colombian and Mexican WTO missions report an LDC advisory center on WTO law is planned, and that LDCs are seeking agreed WTO election statement.

The Economist 19 Jun 99:" Genetically Modified Food: Who's Afraid?" (15-6) and "Food for Thought" (19-21): - "GM" has become such a farm/consumer/trade issue(see 1 May), not only in Europe but also for Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Mexico and US, that it merits both an editorial and essay. "The consumer backlash threatens to undermine both this new technology and the credibility of the agencies that regulate it" (15). The view among many Europeans is that GM products are "unnatural" , dangerous, and bad for the environment. In fact, all crops have been "unnatural" for millennia, "it is difficult to conceive of any way in which human health might be damaged" (19) by GM food and, though tests are underway, GM seems to have net environmental advantages. Since much of the US grain crop is now GM, sorting it for the European market would be difficult and expensive. Better trans-Atlantic cooperation and public information are in order.

The Economist 26 Jun 99:" Helping the Third World: How to Make Aid Work" (23-5):- this major essay firmly supports both the "Cologne Initiative" , by which the G8 agreed to provide more debt relief, more quickly, to more poor countries, and the thesis of the World Bank Report(Dollar and Pritchett op. cit.), which argued that ODA should be focused on well-managed countries. The Initiative replaces the 1996 Heavily Indebted Poor Countries plan, which proved too slow and stingy, lowering the (33?)HIPC's nominal debt of $130 billion by up to $70 billion. Meanwhile, aid policy is influenced by the Bank's report since, although $1 trillion of ODAover 50 years generally "failed spectacularly to improve the lot of its intended beneficiaries,...sound policies and institutions, backed by liberal helpings of aid" (24) appear to be a winning (if rare)combination. The G8 require that freed cash be spent wisely, while ODA will increasingly chase good management. Sara Stratton, "Canadian and G-7 Responses to the Global Debt Crisis" in Behind the Headlines Vol.56/No.4(Summer 1999): - this guest editorial bitterly criticizes the Cologne Initiative regarding HIPC debt relief produced by the1999 G8 Summit, claiming not only that it was almost useless, but strengthened "unjust structures" (SAPs) and "the institutions from which they emanate" (IMF).

The Economist 03 Jul 99:" The Future of Science: Paved with Good Intentions" (71): - a blistering critiqueof a UNESCO/ICSU World Conference on Science in Budapest entitled "Science for the 21st Century: A New Commitment" . The writer found the general approach out of touch with reality in the deliberate and officialexclusion of clinical medicine and engineering in order to keep the science "pure" [but more likely to avoid turf-wars with WHO and UNIDO] and the effective avoidance of information technology and biotechnology - particularly in agriculture [FAO turf?]. More critical was the virtual absence of speakers or information from the private sector, considering that science-based industrial firms fund about 60% of all research. Finally speakers "failed to connect with the theme of how science might tackle the pressing problems [stressed:]poverty, ill-health...environmental degradation and the waste of potential due to discrimination against women" .

The Economist 17 Jul 99:" Viral Evolution" (76): - DNA as an important new scientific tool has been used to study how evolutionary mutation enables life to adjust to new environments. A recent test sought to determinewhether there is regularity in the evolutionary process of mutation, so that the reaction of germs to new drugs might be anticipated and the growing problem of their resistance to antibiotics reduced(see Garrett 96 op. cit.). Two identical populations of the same virus (a parasite on the notorious E. coli. bacterium) were put in identical new environments (higher temperature). In ten days both viruses had evolved to adapt to their new environments, but unfortunately each ended up with a different order, final selection and number of gene changes, as regular DNA analysis made clear. While information about the choice of mutations was obtained (all possible mutations happened at least once), no common pattern was evident. Discouraging.

The Economist 17 Jul 99:" Indoor Pollution" (77):-according to growing evidence, and contrary to the priority of outdoor air pollution controls, levels are usually higher indoors than out, including in heavily-polluted urban areas. Respiratory deaths among Third World infants are shocking. Even in the rich countries,hazardous gases, particulate matter and chemical pollutants are spread indoors by baths, showers, dishwashers and washing machines -installed to clean! Reason: most public water supplies contain very low concentrations of toxic chemicals left over from otherwise beneficial chlorination. Heating, spraying and splashing of water in use releases the chemicals into the air ( "stripping" ). Gas stoves and candles, meanwhile, produce carbon monoxide and particulate concentrations as high as those in heavy traffic. New cars, attached garages, laser printers, computers, carpets and paints are also noxious. Priorities may need adjusting.

The Economist 24 Jul 99 "Stepping on the Gas" (Edit: 19-20) "Fuel Cells Meet Big Business/How a Fuel Cell Works" (59-60):-items stress/explain rapid progress in developing commercially viable fuel cells(previous material: 24 Apr 99). Main article claims: "dramatic shift in thinking of big business" ;$1.5 billion will have been spent on fuel cell R&D by next year; and costs have already fallen so sharply car makers believe mass production will help them close fuel cell/internal-combustion price gap to meet California's 2004 deadline for 10% no-emissions car sales. Power-generation companies hope to be well-established by then, with fuel cells soon competitive with alternatives, from coal to gas-fired, possibly reaching $5 billion a year globallyin power generation equipment in decade. Editorial urges: (1)end hydrocarbon fuel subsidies;(2)deregulate energy; (3)common platforms for technology/infrastructure(UN?). "Poor countries have the most to gain from this efficient, flexible and(eventually)cheap technology" .

The Economist 24 Jul 99:" The WTO: First Equal" (70):- articles in the 08 May issue(op.cit.) regretted both the damage to the WTO's image of a deadlocked Director General election, and the North-South nature of the split. This one announces that Mike Moore(NZ) and Supachai Panitchpakdi (Thailand) would each take three years of the six-year term in that order. Moore had US support, which is critical; the job requires a skilful broker if agreement in a Trade Round is to be reached, and his first job will be the political preparations for a new Round due to be launched in Seattle in November. The Economist 28 Aug 99:" The Human Face of Globalization" (52):-this (favourable) biography of Moore also outlines current concerns about free trade/globalization. Moore admits the WTO's need for change: it must open up, and its processes become more transparent. Seattle faces challenges including agriculture, services, industrial tariffs, maybeelectronic commerce.

The Economist 14 Aug 99:" Balms for the Poor" (63-5):-amplification of the key point made in this issue in both an essay by Jeffrey Sachs and an editorial(op.cit.). It is that the rate of (and death-rate from)infectious diseases in poor countries is tragically high because they offer a tiny effective drug market, and no incentive for drug companies to do costly specialized research on diseases now almost unknown(malaria) or presenting different problems(HIV) in rich countries. US and Europe spend $220b a year on prescription drugs alone; hence WHO estimates that while $56b a year is spent on health research, less than 10% is directed toward diseases that afflict 90% of the world's population. Between 1975 and 1997, 1,223 new compounds were launched on the market (at $300m/10 years research each on average), of which only 11 were designed for tropical diseases. The article describes a number of plans to redirect research and lower prices.

The Economist 21 Aug 99: Water Supply: "Pass the Salt" (Desalinization)(23); "Cloudbusting" (Rain-Making)(69-70); "An Ice Idea" (Storage)(70): - all articles relate to scientific-technological developments withmajor implications for expected world-wide fresh water shortages. The first describes a "reverse-osmosis" desalinization plant being built in conjunction with a power station, "which will provide the cheapest drinking water ever extracted from the sea" : 25m gallons a day at a wholesale cost of $2.08 per 1000 gallons for 30 years, i.e. competitive with other sources. The second article reports on a new method of cloud-seeding. Now completing thorough (double-blind), encouraging tests, "hygroscopic-flare" seeding uses salts asstrongly water-affinitive nuclei to form raindrops. The last foresees artificial ice mountains, created cheaplyby modified "snow machines" at below-freezing, water-abundant times/places, and tapped/shipped as/where needed.

The Economist 28 Aug 99:" The Shadow Economy: Black Hole" (59):-the article reports a recent attempt to estimate the size of the "black" or "underground" economy of the whole world, as well as in 76 developed and emerging economies. Some was the product of criminal acts; much was legal income,unreported to avoid taxes. Individual country studies were made by Friedrich Schneider of Linz, Austria, whose calculations are explained. The estimated global "shadow" economy is $9 trillion. This compares with a1998 official global GDP(in ppp) of $39 trillion, and comprises an amount equal to the entire (official) US economy. In rich countries, the "shadow" economy averages 15% of reported GDP; in emerging countries, about one-third of GDP. The largest underground economies are in Nigeria and Thailand: more than 70%of GDP, mainly crime-generated. Among the rich, Italy, Spain and Belgium lead with 23-28%, mostly tax evasion.

The Economist 04 Sep 99:" Silent Sting: Banning DDT" (25):- Editorial addresses the terrible dilemma ofwhether to ban DDT globally because of its proven dangerous effects on humans and wildlife (cancer, endocrine disruption, other ills), or to allow its continued use against malaria in many poor countries. The UN Environment Program is coordinating negotiations for a new international treaty to curb the use of 12 of the worst pollutants, including DDT and dioxins used as pesticides but which are also persistent organic pollutants. Health officials, however, argue a worldwide DDT ban "would condemn millions to misery or death from a preventable illness" since "the only effective defence many have against [malaria] is to spray DDTinside their homes" . Economist proposes delaying a total ban until malaria is beaten; meanwhile banning DDT use outside the home (notably in farming); funding new malaria vaccines, therapeutic drugs, andalternative pesticides.

The Economist 04 Sep 99:" Let Old Folk Work" (Editorial-23); "Ageing Workers: A Full Life" (65-8): - whilesome experts warn of a global crisis in pension costs and declining GNP as fertility rates drop, these texts argue that aging populations give opportunities to improve both human rights and the work force, simply by letting people retire when and how they choose. Current trends and practice in developed countries must change: retirement now begins so early that men spend only half their lives in work. Combined with falling fertility, longer and healthier life-spans, and replacement of physically-demanding jobs with those based on knowledge/experience, this constitutes an enormous waste of human resources (lowering economic growth) and frustrates the one-third of retirees who, even with pressures/incentives to retire early, would rather be working. Such laws/rules, mistakenly designed to lower unemployment, must be redesigned.

The Economist 11 Sep 99:" Computers and Wages" (85): -incomes have clearly been diverging in recent decades within the OECD, former communist, and many other countries, but the cause(s) of this trend is debatable. While technologies are obviously involved, this essay focuses on the role of computers, and Timothy Bresnahan, "Computerization and Wage Dispersion" , Economic Journal, Jun 1999. Blaminginformation technology/PCs directly(i.e. knowledge work is aided; unskilled labour is redundant) "doesn't compute" , since the trend predates PCs, few bosses type, and most PCs are used by clerical personnel for word-processing and spreadsheets. Bresnahan argues that computers acted as "agent of revolution in whole organizations" . IT indeed lowered wages of unskilled(including clerks) but raised the value of jobs that cannot be automated: those requiring people-handling skills either to manage or deal with the public or other organizations.

The Economist 11 Sep 99:" Nuclear Power: Running on Empty" (87):-two major issues still facing nuclear power are its economic competitiveness with other power sources, and storage of its radioactive wastes. A new method of generating energy from nuclear waste may ease both problems. A Maryland U. scientist has developed a nuclear-powered turbo-reciprocating engine (NPTRE) which runs on the "spent" fuel rodsfrom conventional reactors. Now, after 1-2 years generating electricity, fuel rods are put in storage, having used up enough of their uranium-235 that they can no longer sustain a heat-producing chain reaction, by being hit by neutrons. They are then replaced by new rods. But (spent) fuel rods contain uranium-238 too, which also produces heat (although not a chain reaction)when hit by neutrons. So spent rods are moved near new rods-and their neutron bursts- in a reactor. The U-238 then doubles heat production -and lasts 10-14 years. Presumably the IAEA would be very interested in this as a money-saver for developing countries.

The Economist 11 Sep 99:" Biodegradeable Materials: Fantastic Plastic" (87-8):-one of the hardest pollution challenges to meet has been the great versatility, toughness, safety, and resilience of plastic, and the (resulting) fact that it is so durable some could last for thousands of years. Scientists at Cargill Dow Polymers now believe they have developed a truly biodegradeable plastic. Moreover, since it is derived from maize(corn) or beets instead of petrochemicals, the raw materials are renewable and could be grown in virtually any country. The plastic can be broken down in a composting centre anywhere, leaving nothing more than water and carbon dioxide. Produced through a new, highly efficient method based on polylactides(PLA) polymers, the plastic "can be used to make anything from clothing fibres to clear films and food containers" . The company also claims production is very energy-saving and already financially competitive.

The Economist 18 Sep 99: "Pay Up and Play the Game" (20):-this Editorial may well be the toughest criticism the Economist has ever levelled against the US for ignoring its UN debt of $1.69b. After noting the US "has a hard time with supra-national organizations" (League, ICJ, WTO),and insults them, the editor stresses its bad behaviour to the UN [having as usual written most of its rules], which will cost its UNGA vote unless it pays its arrears before 2000. While most US-UN frictions have eased, and Clinton wants to pay, the House tied payment to restrictions on US(sic)family-planning programs abroad, making the US "look like a bigot and a fool on the world stage" . The Senate passed a bill "festooned with brattish conditions" far beyond the SG's authority. To be approved and implemented they would have to reflect somehow the wishes/acceptance of a majority of all the world's states. While Congress' motive may be to mollify those noisy Americans who see "the UN" as an independent entity busily seeking "world domination" , a paranoid minority would then be forcing [a particularly law-conscious and proudly democratic state] to refuse to pay its debts.

The Economist 25 Sep 99 "Too Many or Too Few" (Edit:19) "Unshapely World, Too Old or Too Young" (56):-inspired by UNFPA report "6 Billion: A Time for Choices" which gives thought to population problems. Globaldemographic trends are diverse and diverging. In industrialized world(except for immigrant-receivers)plus China, fertility is now at or below replacement level. In LDCs, average fertility rate has dropped from 6 per woman in 1969 to 3 today. But population still grows(about 80m/year)due to lower infant mortality, longer lifespans, population momentum. So authors see two issues:(1)resource pressures of high growth rates in poorest areas(most of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa)in spite of soaring death rates from AIDS;(2)economic/fiscal problems of top-heavy age structure where too-rapidly-lowered birth-rates createmore dependents than workforce can support.

The Economist 25 Sep 99:" Trade and Development: White Man's Shame" (89-90):-the article reports thatLDCs complain GATT/WTO decisions put them at a disadvantage. First, they claim they must open their markets too far, too fast. Predictably, a periodical dedicated to free trade responds that this is a good, as theireconomies/people will benefit more/sooner. Second, the LDCs accuse the rich countries of conspiring tokeep their markets closed. Here the paper largely agrees. "Rich countries cut their tariffs by less in the Uruguay round than poor ones did" , and have since found new ways to close their markets, notably throughanti-dumping duties in sectors where LDCs are best able to compete: agriculture, textiles, clothing. Third,LDCs lack resources/information to negotiate effectively, to implement trade agreements, and to exploitWTO rules to their advantage. Fully agreeing, the article outlines several ways help is now offered.

The Economist 09 Oct 99:" Why Greens Should Love Trade" (17-8);" Embracing Greenery: WTO and the Environment" (89-90);Sam Howe Verhovek," For Seattle, Triumph and Protest" in New York Times 13 Oct 99:- the peace-making Editorial, the historical/optimistic article, and the longer NYT report on the politics/ confrontations, together provide a good picture of the environmental issues that influence the WTO's agenda-setting meeting. The Editorial argues that, by creating wealthier societies that care more about the environment, trade can be the best way to improve it. In the meantime, laxer standards in poor countries are a fair competitive advantage, and no importer may discriminate against those with productionmethods not up to its own standards. Anyway, pollution abatement costs competitors very little, andgoods can be specially labelled. Global/trans-border problems should be tackled/paid for through a strongWorld Environment Organization(WEO) not the WTO. The Economist article -and the WWF- praise a newWTO report on environmental concerns, which (unlike GATT) concedes trade can harm the environment, and implies this could be put on the trade agenda in Seattle. The most promising areas for global action are the elimination of environmentally damaging subsidies for farming, fishing and fossil fuels, the labellingof (clearly) eco-friendly products, and making WTO more transparent, accountable and accessible to eco-groups. A WEO is clearly preferred to trade sanctions for Kyoto-like treaties. The NYT reports on plans by 300 groups for mass demonstrations at Seattle, many by eco-groups, and most claiming the WTO is business-dominated and undermining national laws.

The Economist 09 Oct 99:" Economics Focus: Diminishing Returns" (98): - "the world remains financially fragile; the next crisis is not hard to imagine" ; so the Bank/Fund meetings had no excuse for failing "to take some modest precautionary steps more promptly" . So essay welcomes report by 29 experts entitled "Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System" , published by Institute for International Economics. While 29 split over floating exchange rate targets, they agreed: Improve the incentives for good policyby requiring the IMF to link interest rates on its loans to countries' crisis-prevention measures, etc. Encourage holding-period taxes on short-term capital inflows. Encourage private-sector burden-sharing by having collective-action clauses in G7 sovereign bond contracts/markets. Discourage pegged exchange rates; favour either "managed floating" or (sometimes) currency boards. Require IMF to lend less freely ( "country" vs " systemic" crises). IMF concentrates on macroeconomic policy; IBRD on longer-term development structure. Foster poor-country ownership of reform with special global conference of finance ministers.

The Economist 09 Oct 99:" Fertility Rights: Terminator Genes" (104):-biotechnology in general, and agri-biotech firms in particular, have recently become ethical, commercial and scientific subjects of debate [Horaises inter alia this item's issue; see Economist 13 Jun 98/1 May/19 Jun 99, Maddox, Morton(op.cit.)]. DNA control of plant reproduction has research value by enabling only selected plants to be re-fertilized, but the article reports that Monsanto, in the face of worldwide criticism, "promised not to commercialise(sic)the genetic engineering of seed sterility" . This is significant, as many suspect its real motive in developing sterile seeds was to force farmers -including poor Third World peasants- to buy costly (and, for many, unaffordable) new seeds annually. With Monsanto's action, and creation by multilateral institutes and multinationals of a related research consortium, poor farmers -having to raise productivity to feed growing numbers- seem safer.

The Economist 30 Oct 99:" Emissions: Seeing Green" (73):- article reports how various businesses are nowreacting more positively to planned Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gas emission taxes. BP Amoco and Royal Dutch/Shell now admit "global warming is real and merits immediate action" . Utilities are trying to reduce power plant pollution; Dupont is voluntarily cutting emissions of greenhouse gases to 35% of their 1990 level in a decade. Examples of current use of transferable emission credits are given. Obtaining these will be of major value to heavy-industrial and energy firms for cutting their pollution taxes; BP Amoco is trading credits among its international divisions. Those able easily to reduce CO2/methane emissions and so generate credits include agribusinesses and forestry firms, while reinsurance companies can securitise emission-trading permits. "Carbon trading" could be BIG business; some predict a trillion-dollar global industry.

The Economist 06 Nov 99 "Bandwidth from Thin Air" (85-6); "How to Look Through Walls" (86):-first function of International Telecommunication Union, UN agency: "Allocation of radio frequency spectrum and registration of radio frequency assignments." As global exploitation of spectrum multiplies exponentially and increases(with satellites)in range, ITU fills its time(re)allocating fixed and so ever-more scarce/valuable global resource. Article reports two emerging technologies promise to make vastly more use of limited "bandwidth." One allows multiple simultaneous transmissions on same frequency(Bell Labs Layered Space-Time: BLAST); other transmits on huge range of frequencies at once(Ultra Wide-Band:UWB).Both create "unforeseen reserves of valuable bandwidth...at cost of increased computational complexity." UWB used as radar "can employ significantly longer wavelengths [to] penetrate wide range of materials(e.g. brick/stone)." Potential military, police, disarmament, intelligence uses vast.

The Economist 13 Nov 99:" Le Monde sans Michel" (77-8):-this report on the resignation of Michel Camdessus as Managing Director of the IMF, recommends a new focus for the Fund. Writer notes he has had a huge influence on global economic policies - and been harshly criticized: by the left for being "determined to foist painful policies that benefit only financiers on to poor people" ; by the right for " fostering moral hazard in financial markets, and bailing out incompetent governments" . Yet the "broad thrust of IMF doctrine...is now the orthodoxy in virtually every country" (77). Its main fault was not making governments take responsibility for their economic policies. IMF programs should have been limited to governments truly committed to reform; it must be more selective and focused; not succumb to mission creep. Maybe it should leave very poor countries to the World Bank and end large bail-outs to defend fixed exchange-rate pegs.

The Economist 20 Nov 99 "Don't Ask for More, Mr. Annan" (47):-strong critique of forced payment by US of only portion of legally-bound debts to UN, and with strict unilateral conditions. For details of Clinton-Congressional "compromise" ,see Wren(op.cit.).Among barbs: "[US]still owes UN some $600m, and deal includes sort of constraints no national government would even dream of accepting, [but]barely registered.[I]dea that world's richest country can unilaterally cancel its debts is something that even US' s closest allies find hard to stomach. If US can walk away from its debts why not others?.[I]dea of Congress unilaterally deciding what happens to a multilateral organization (without even bothering to go through formality of letting other countries vote)marks new step[in US strong-arming]" .[My two bits: there seems to be no recognition in Congress that in berating "UN" for stupidity, waste, errors, etc., it is in fact insulting every government on earth, but especially US. We all made UN what it is.]

The Economist 27 Nov 99:" Microfinance in Cyberspace" (79):- "lending small amounts of money, without collateral, to help poor people to become entrepreneurs - is one of the trendiest areas of international development" . There are about 10,000 microfinance institutions (MFIs) globally, and the World Bank estimates $400-600m in donor funds are earmarked annually for them. The most famous is the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. The article reports that Jacques Attali (ex-EBRD) has founded PlaNet Finance to promote microfinance by