Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected:(1)“[C]ontinental differences in...wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage...even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2)[R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among[and between]continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances];(3)[C]ontinental differences in area or total population size”which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical. Recent reports: Michael Szonyi,”China: The Years Ahead”in International Journal Vol.LV/No.3(Summer 00):-supports Roberts et al. in stressing China’s global importance because it is already unstable. Economy: Farm incomes and small industry stagnate for need of technology/economies of scale, forcing more capital-intensive growth and less job-creation. So unemployment is rising rapidly, helped by corruption, inefficiency, social-welfare erosion, mis-investment, regional disparities and WTO rules. Politics: Jiang(only conditionally supported by PLA)presides over a debate, not about democracy vs authoritarianism, but over the best speed and timing of reform to keep CCP in power. As social dislocation/unrest are inevitable, Beijing must control regions through controlling finance, and social movements with(potential)force. Meanwhile it can distract domestic concern by using aggressive nationalistic rhetoric about foreign encirclement. Military: Action in almost all directions is highly risky. The Taiwan issue shapes many other security relations, even though the PLA lacks the capacity to invade. In fact weakness makes China“unable to project decisive force beyond its immediate borders”(481). Moreover China’s potential non-military security challenges include the environment, organized crime, and migrant flows. A longer and more specific analysis is fortunately available on the Web at http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca. This is the full text of the Fall 2000/No.79 issue of Commentary, a publication of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service . Also by Michael Szonyi, a professor at the University of Toronto, its focus is the next five years:”Potential For Domestic Instability in the People’s Republic of China in the Medium-Term(2001-2006)”. The paper discusses some of the major challenges to Chinese stability, much from the Chinese point of view. It concludes that:”Many factors could lead to varying degrees of domestic instability in the PRC in the period, including dissatisfaction with economic change, ethnic separatism, and religious ideology. While leadership and succession issues, tensions between the civilian leadership and the army, and the commitment to recover Taiwan may contribute to the overall uncertainty, challenges to stability are less likely to come from the political domain”(2). As evidence of the growing social unrest already produced by tougher economic conditions, see Elisabeth Rosenthal, ”Factory Closings in China Arouse Workers’ Fury”in New York Times 31 Aug 00:-this article, though mostly describing particular demonstrations (and the temporary hostage-taking of foreign managers), gives a detailed account of the sort of labor troubles China is likely to see increasing as industry is forced to modernize -with now much-reduced social safety-nets. The conclusion is also ominous: ”[D]isturbances have been reported from many rural areas as farmers with stagnant incomes face growing tax burdens from local governments”. Craig S. Smith, ”Chinese Farmers Rebel Against Bureaucracy” NYT 17 Sep:-this article adds personal evidence of such “disturbances” in rural areas through interviews with farmers and officials. In one town over 10,000 angry peasants converged on the town hall ”demanding relief from high taxes and administrative fees that eat up any profit from farming...When word of...protest spread, thousands more angry farmers rampaged through neighbouring towns...Such disturbances are increasingly common...where as many as 900 million people still depend on the land for their livelihood. The peasant class...is growing restive again, swelling the ranks of the country’s dissatisfied along with laid-off workers, struggling pensioners and the millions of Chinese who have migrated from the countryside to cities where they eke out a tenuous existence...But the most fundamental cause of the problem cuts to the heart of...one-party rule:The farmers have no political power... [Appointed]local party officials wield the real power[and like]imperial tax collectors of old...charge fees for every[thing]...With financial burdens growing and grain[prices]falling, millions of farmers are abandoning their fields. [Yet, with 150m more still working the land than are needed to feed China,] farmers lack the economies of scale [and] production costs... exceed those of farmers in industrialized countries.” Local officials resist any tax reforms, since these would only reduce their own power and income. The Economist 09 Sep”Europe and America: Weathering the Storm” (23-6):-contends NATO must continue its security cooperation over the next 30 years to deal with major threats anywhere in the globe. (The UN is not mentioned, but since the Gulf War ad hoc alliance is seen as the most likely scenario for any major military operations, this coincides with UN capabilities/needs.) In putting the”chief places from which trouble might come”over the period in order of probability, China leads the list. Its”one-party political system..., to justify its existence, needs to find a substitute for its bust ideology... [Moreover, a] country with a nationalist foreign-policy agenda is often prepared to pay a sizeable economic price to get what it wants”(24). Eric Schmitt,”Senate Votes to Lift Curbs on US Trade With China”NYT 20 Sep:-on 19 Sep the Permanent Normal Trade Relations(PNTR)bill completed its passage through Congress. This ended the annual Congressional review of China’s terms of access to the world’s largest market -a 20-year ritual, considered degrading by Beijing, which had been felt necessary and effective in forcing China to improve its record on human rights. In addition to substantial trade/legislative concessions China makes to gain entry into the WTO later this year, Beijing conceded to US companies many valuable new trade/investment opportunities in China, balanced by virtually no US concessions besides PNTR. The bilateral negotiations had won major reductions in”Chinese tariffs on a range of farm and industrial products and remove[d] barriers to American service providers, like banks and telecommunications companies”. As Schmitt notes in a similar article of 6 Sep, the two agreements are therefore expected to have significant effects in accelerating the reform(and unsettling)of the Chinese economy -and hence politics. David E. Sanger,”New Realism Wins the Day as Senate Passes Trade Bill”NYT 20 Sep:-as China’s global economic and political role “loomed ever larger”, it became clearer “Congress’ periodic threat that it would refuse to renew China’s annual trade status was empty”. Now, with PNTR,”the real test will come as America tries to use its deepening trade relationship as leverage to open China’s political system”. Yet the ultimate result depends on China. Smith, ”Chinese See Pain as Well as Profit in New Trade Era”NYT 21 Sep:-there is“growing trepidation”in China about the effects of its trade concessions. ”Many Chinese worry [their country] is ill-prepared to face...global competition”, and that while Chinese industries will be forced to become stronger in the long run, “many people are expected to lose their jobs along the way”. In particular, China’s”local governments, industrial regulators and state-owned enterprises are not ready for what lies ahead”. Peasants are among the least prepared to compete with importers selling cheaper yet higher-quality farm products. Telecommunications and banking, long sheltered, will face”wrenching change”. Some manufacturers, already used to competition, can adjust, but government monopolies are inexperienced. “A wave of bankruptcies will sweep through the economy”. Even established foreign companies must adjust to new conditions, although the laws will be changed slowly and by degrees, as has already begun. Many will be cut by this“double-edged sword”. William Jefferson Clinton, ”China’s Opportunities”NYT 24 Sep:-President summarizes US policy towards China in Op-Ed. He describes passage of PNTR as”the most important development in our relationship with [China] since we normalized ties in 1979"- at a critical point in the country’s development. “At stake is how China evolves over a decade or more. Will it resist globalization, or harness it to meet human needs? Will it reject popular demands for more freedom and accountability, or achieve the stability that comes only from letting people shape their own lives?” Despite political risks, creating a more open/competitive economy is”the only way for China to meet its mounting challenges and avoid internal upheaval and disintegration”. “The one sure path to stability...in this global age, lies in change. It must meet its WTO obligations(we will help); and continue adjusting its conduct to meet international standards(with our encouragement and international pressure). The US will maintain its military presence in Asia as”a balance wheel for stability”, helped by any reduction in China-US mutual suspicion. We have chosen”to extend our hand rather than merely clenching our fist”. [The stress on positive US motives and the reform-stability link, deliberately address China’s fears.] Smith,”Graft in China Flows Freely, Draining the Treasury”NYT 01 Oct:-a major source of instability is the corruption “riddling”the Chinese system;”graft throughout the country’s many-layered government is draining the state treasury, crippling the economy and angering the people”. National Audit Bureau reported that more than $15b in government funds was squandered in 1999. Since much ends up in private hands, China is littered with”half-built office towers, unfinished bridges and roads to nowhere”. Beijing is executing“droves”of crooked Party members, but critics claim”corruption is inherent to a system where a one-party hierarchy, based on political patronage and protection, controls the allocation and use of state-owned assets”. It is easy to allocate them to personal benefit, particularly if officials are still paid ridiculously low wages. Moreover corruption has only grown worse as the Party’s”ideological foundation deteriorates”and central economic controls are relaxed. Legal or press whistle-blowing results only in jail for the critics. Tragically, the worst graft may be in Water Resources ministry whose(expensive)flood/drought-control projects can mean life or death for millions. Economist 23 Sep,”China: A Revolution in Learning to Think”(50):-since, in total, the Chinese education system is now moulding about 285m students, one in every four in the world, any problems/changes are of truly global importance. So the world should take note when PM Zhu announces“a far-reaching education overhaul...is among China’s top priorities”, especially as entrenched philosophies/methods of teaching are“shaped by centuries of Confucian tradition and decades of socialis[m]”. Yet communism felt”both an ideological need to bring literacy and education to the broader masses, and a practical need to train vast numbers of officials”; hence Beijing did achieve much. However, the challenges of a rapidly-changing world are complex. One problem is priorities: there has been much spent on the top universities at the expense of lower-level education(there are only 7m university students), and many poor get no schooling at all, partly because the decentralization of school finance has hit some areas hard. In addition to administrative/funding reform, students will follow broader research methods/learning styles, partly through use of many foreign textbooks. Finally, there is reaction to the stress and lack of innovative thinking produced by rote learning. Associated Press,”Villagers Moved for Dam Project”NYT 04 Oct:-two US-based NGOs, Human Rights in China and International Rivers Network have reported that villagers being relocated to make room for the reservoir of China’s controversial Three Gorges Dam have”rioted, besieged government offices and abandoned new homes in anger over shoddy, corrupt resettlement projects”. While the reports could not be independently confirmed, they contained considerable detail, and added to many previous accusations of official corruption and mismanagement relating to the dam. The world’s largest hydroelectric project, it will require resettlement of over a million people, and hence involves huge sums of money. Even Chinese government auditors admit local officials have embezzled about $52m in resettlement funds; private groups claim far more has been lost. Economist 30 Sep”China’s State-Owned Enterprises”(71-3):-”China’s economic future depends on...reform of the SOEs, and thus of the country’s socialist economy”. Imminent WTO entry and SOE exposure to global competition makes this urgent. SOEs account for 28% of total output, 44% of urban employment, 70% of state revenue. They also are 30-50% overstaffed(even with 18% of their workforce laid off); absorb some 80% of the country’s bank loans(of which funds equal to 25% of total GDP will never be paid back); and half SOEs admit losses, while many more just break even(all book-keeping is totally misleading). The underlying problems reflect a slow and partial conversion from bureaucracy to market-driven enterprises. Many SOEs offer products with no market or market them badly; many have over-invested in new machinery they now cannot afford to use; sales or loans are uncollectible(although banks must keep lending at subsidized rates); and old social responsibilities(overstaffing, cradle-to-grave welfare)are financially unsupportable. The worst problems lie in”corporate governance”: local Party bureaucrats retain the power to tax, demand and interfere; in response, managers cheat, mainly by fiddling the accounts to their personal interests. Attempted reforms divide SOEs in three groups: the hopeless (50%?) disappear(26,000 coalmines/2,500 smelters shut down); the merely bad (40%?)are “prepared for sale”to private investors(some are given more autonomy-often generating worse cheating; others must borrow on commercial terms or fold -in essence are privatised); the”potential gems”(10%?)are listed on the stockmarket. As“worker unrest has been growing;..better to be bolder now”. Economist 7 Oct”China and the WTO: Not So Fast”(86-9):-article predicts China’s admission to the WTO may be substantially delayed. Beijing was anxious to be a member in 2000 in order to participate in the next, and apparently imminent, round of global trade negotiations. It therefore signed 36 preparatory agreements with key WTO members that conceded more than it would have wished, and left details to be filled in later. Now that many LDCs are reluctant to join a new round until previous promises on agriculture and textiles are fulfilled, prospects for starting a new round soon are “dim”. China is taking the extra time to push for more favourable accession terms, particularly since WTO membership will require many tough changes to the Chinese regime, above all SOEs(previous article). Joseph Kahn and Sanger,”Clinton, Signing China Trade Bill, Issues Warning to Beijing”NYT 11 Oct:-following from the above, Clinton sent US top trade negotiator to Beijing“to warn China that its efforts to back away from crucial trade concessions threatened...trading rights...it won after a prolonged fight in Congress[and]following 14 years of negotiations”. In talks on the final terms of WTO admission, “China was slipping on pledges to open its markets that it had made”in its effort to join WTO, and had”balked at several of the most politically sensitive concessions“. China was now also insisting it be treated like an LDC, to get more time to eliminate subsidies/trade barriers used to support farmers and protect sensitive SOEs. Rules limiting foreign investment in Internet/ communications also broke pledges. Speculation is that bureaucrats/businessmen were fighting voluminous and sometimes vague liberalization concessions. AP,”China’s Party Meeting Ignores Strife”NYT 11 Oct:-significantly, the big annual CCP meeting discussed five-year plan/personnel changes -not political reform-”while popular anger over corruption, brewing unrest in the countryside and global trade’s impact on already high unemployment loom”. Chinese scholars of both left and right”predict a crisis”if the Party delays making the regime”more law-abiding and open to public participation”. One writer sees WTO entry “accelerating wrenching social change that Beijing is ill-prepared to handle”. The CCP communique was vague and unimaginative, partly reflecting caution imposed by the bargaining over leadership changes due anyway. “Meanwhile, evidence abounds of the party’s and its government’s eroding authority. [They were]even[having] trouble suppressing dissent”, in both action and print. The regime is most threatened over the issue of corruption, in reality an institutional problem. Perhaps for this reason, while the danger is recognized, no effective counter-action has been taken. AP,”China Reaffirms World Trade Promise”NYT 12 Oct; and Erik Eckholm,”Chinese Official Reassures U.S. Envoy on Firm Plans to Open Trade”NYT 13 Oct:-both articles report on U.S. trade negotiator Barshefsky’s reassuring account of her five-hour meeting with PM Zhu Rongji. She said he had given“absolutely emphatic”assurances that China would not back away from the market-opening commitments that it made to gain entry into the WTO. China will cut average tariffs on imported goods from about 25% to just 9% within 5 years to open protected banking, insurance, telecommunications and other sectors to competition. This was in spite of the fact that“powerful ministers and provincial politicians have balked, fearing competitive global trade will bury lethargic factories and farms, and compound unrest”. Economist 14 Oct,”China: Running Dry”(52):-the drought in 2000 in some areas of China has been the worst in decades, and all across China the lack of water has led to parched crops or none at all. (Even in well-watered Guangdong, 74 reservoirs dried up, and rivers became trickles.) With a 10% decline in grain yield this year and continued population growth, the water problem will probably get worse. Experts believe that by 2030, China’s needs will be pressing its limits, due to policy errors: mis-located industry, badly-planned dams, poorly-managed rivers, under-priced water, irrigated crops in dry areas. Water prices must encourage conservation, crops grown in appropriate lands, and forestation expanded to control runoff. Big problems: costs and local opposition. AP,”China Defends Military Buildup”NYT 16 Oct:-most of this article describes a”lengthy policy paper”issued by Beijing justifying (abroad?) the current increases in defense expenditures: tension with Taiwan and bullying by”major powers”(i.e. US). Authoritarian regimes usually have two domestic reasons for spending more on the armed forces - both of which probably apply here: to help ensure control over the populace in case of internal unrest, and to help buy the loyalty of at least the military leadership. A simultaneous policy paper admits“China is having trouble raising incomes among already hard-pressed farmers by the 4% target [officially] set this year”. This again illustrates Beijing’s rural challenge in“easing simmering discontent”. Unlike prosperous city-dwellers, many farmers have seen their incomes falling or stagnating for over a decade. AP,”China Mine Bosses Said Hiding Deaths”NYT 17 Oct:-despite frequent accounts in world media of horrific accidents in Chinese coal mines, apparently the real situation is even worse. A government paper reports that investigations by labor officials acting on tips from the public found that, in four counties studied, there were 56 fatal or injury-causing accidents and 113 deaths in 1999, but only 8 accidents and 62 deaths were reported by mine managers. Such a ratio is”commonplace”. If so, the more than 2,730 miners that were reported as killed in the first half of 2000 must actually hide a real total twice as large, raising the question why unrest in China is not greater. Eckholm,”China Plans to Divert Rivers to Thirsty North”NYT 17 Oct:-confirming the 14 Oct article, this reports PM Zhu has strongly endorsed the decision to divert water”as soon as possible”hundreds of miles from the water-rich south to an increasingly dry north(often the Yellow River no longer reaches the sea).“With rapid urbanization,...industrial development, as well as the spread of irrigated agriculture, water has become acutely scarce around several[northern]cities including Beijing, and conflicts have emerged between urban, industrial and farming needs”. The official press admits many rivers have run dry, lakes dried up and underground reservoirs over-exploited. Smith,”China Says Its Economy Grew at 8.2% Rate in 3rd Quarter”NYT 17 Oct:-article notes that while this growth rate was faster than expected and virtually ensures its 7-year slide has ended, it hides enduring economic weaknesses - particularly with WTO membership imminent. Economic development is spread very unevenly: many areas were in recession last year, with unemployment reaching 30% in some towns. Farmers were most vulnerable: rural incomes grew just 2.5% so far in 2000, compared to 8.4% urban income growth. “Government officials worried that a further slide in economic growth could fuel political unrest”. Reuters,”China WTO Entry Concerns Upstage China-EU Summit”NYT 23 Oct:-reports on a brief Chinese-EU summit during which political issues were overshadowed by the many serious(or delaying)problems the Chinese side has raised to folding its many bilateral agreements into a single multilateral treaty that completes its entry into the WTO. While both sides stressed their“commitment to overcoming snags[there was]scant evidence of a breakthrough in the impasse”. Much results from EU demands for more“clear and predictable”Chinese regulations, which Beijing sees as attempts to extract new commitments. [The Economist(7 Oct op.cit.) suspects that Beijing’s fear of violent anti-government reaction to global imports resulting from WTO membership, makes it deliberately delay agreement.] Similar reasons of self-preservation imply that Beijing, while again promising the EU imminent action, will delay ratifying the UN Human Rights Conventions - particularly that on civil/political rights. AP,”Separatist Group Blames Police for Death of Leader”NYT 24 Oct:-”Police have tortured to death an organizer of one of the largest uprisings against Chinese rule in China’s restive Muslim northwest, according to a separatist group”. The East Turkistan Information Center, one of many overseas groups seeking independence for Xinjiang and its dominant ethnic group, the Uighurs, reported the death of Abduhelil Abdulmejit, one of the“chief organizers”of a major independence protest in Yining, near China’s border with Kazakstan, in Feb 97. Exile groups claim at least 100 died; Amnesty International(AI)estimated 3,000-5,000 were arrested. AI also reports Abdulmejit organized social gatherings started by Uighurs in 1994 ”to combat widespread drug abuse and social problems among youths[but] authorities banned the gatherings in 1995, apparently fearing their growing strength”. AI calls this case typical; Beijing admits unauthorized torture takes place. Reuters,”EU Deal Brings China Closer to WTO Entry”NYT 27 Oct:-EU has resolved WTO disagreements with China over European access to insurance and retail markets through talks during and after their Beijing summit(Reuters 23 Oct). Licences for insurance companies will be granted even before accession is completed, from which time European supermarkets, department stores, etc will also be able operate freely in China. Last”joint-venture”restrictions on car distributors in China will be lifted within 5 years of accession. Both sides will now concentrate on resolving the remaining issues quickly, with accession early next year reasonable. As China is vulnerable in all the areas, the economic(and political?)moment of truth approaches. Economist 28 Oct:”China’s Dynastic Struggles”(12-3);“China: Ready For the Fourth Generation”(39-40):-this Editorial/article see the traumas of handing leadership to a new generation, and absorbing WTO obligations, as not only demanding reform, but creating serious social and political challenges: unemployment, uncontrollable migration to the cities, a new social safety net. “[T]his transition may be...fragile... because China has been changing faster than the management methods of the...functionaries that run the place. As signs of restiveness increase - farmers rioting...over arbitrary taxes, workers taking to the streets...to protest at unpaid wages and factory closures - it would take a braver leadership than China yet has to experiment with the sorts of sharply devolutionary political reforms that the economy also needs, but that will loosen further the party’s grip on power. Meanwhile, separatist sentiment in China’s Islamic borderlands is met with the sort of grip-tightening that provokes more separatist violence...[L]eaders have recently been tempted to turn to an ideology with more potent appeal[than Marxism]: a chip-on-shoulder nationalism. [Yet] the last thing China needs...is a stability-rocking crisis over Taiwan or anything else”(12-3). The article sees five possible sources of challenge to the regime: (1) The party’s continuing inability to show it is really serious about rooting out corruption within its ranks. (2) A severe economic downturn as painful reforms after WTO membership start to bite. (3) Growing rural unrest over local corruption and arbitrary taxation by local officials. (4) The rise of organizing forces that bring together disparate sites of dissatisfaction, in both countryside and cities. (5) The rise of a more reform-minded, western-educated, cosmopolitan generation that challenges authoritarian assumptions. Reuters,”China Delays Ratifying UN Rights Pact”31 Oct:-maybe reflecting a sense of insecurity, and concern at recent domestic unrest, Chinese leaders decided not to ratify the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights during the Oct session of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress(NPC), China’s legislature. Although this Covenant came into effect in 1976, and is separate from the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights at the insistence of the communist states (who knew their strong suit),China did not sign the 1966 pair until 1997 and 1998 respectively. And Beijing still says”state sovereignty takes precedence over human rights and collective rights trump individual liberties. It also maintains that providing food, clothing and shelter for 1.3 billion people is more important than granting political rights”. However, the”main contents of the covenants are consistent with the laws and policies and practice of China”, even if “a number of [NPC] members maintain that...some questions remain to be further studied”(i.e. for possible exemptions). Ratifying the civil rights convention is not expected for at least a year. Smith,”Beijing Tries to Lift Economic Standards”NYT 07 Nov:-one of the most serious threats facing the Chinese regime is maintaining national unity - a unity most threatened among the many ethnic minorities found in the vast western area of China. It includes 12 provinces/autonomous regions, particularly Xinjiang and Tibet where militant independence movements already exist. The region, about the size of Australia, consists mainly of huge deserts, dense mountains and scattered cities, and yet has a population of 280 million. Climate, topography, isolation mean that most people are very poor, with incomes a third of those along the coast, and in some provinces only 12%. Beijing, having watched the recent sudden break-up of the USSR, is hoping to greatly improve the region’s economy”before the disparity between living standards there and in the wealthier east, dominated by Han Chinese,” fortifies existing desires for independence. The next 5-year plan draft sees development of the west an”historic task”that must make“breakthroughs in building the infrastructure and preserving the...environment”in the next 5-10 years. Both FDI and ODA are being sought to finance a long list of projects including a $14b 2,500-mile natural gas pipeline from Xinjiang to Shanghai. Beijing will spend $4b in the west this year on infrastructure alone, since that is the greatest challenge. Yet even if done well, it”will take several generations”to close the east-west economic -and hence political- gap. AP,”China Hands Out Death Sentences”NYT 08 Nov; and Rosenthal,”China Sentences 11 Officials to Death in Smuggling Scandal”NYT 09 Nov:-[similar articles summarized together] China’s biggest corruption scandal produced 84 convictions: 11 people were sentenced to death (including police and government officials), 3 received suspended death sentences, 12 were sentenced to life imprisonment, and 58 received lesser terms. The multi-billion-dollar“Yuanhua Group”smuggling ring, centered in the port of Xiamen (opposite Taiwan), is presumably wiped out and, more important, the government has made examples of lower ranked officials “to convince a disgusted public that it is tackling pervasive corruption” - while shielding leaders at the top. The ring reportedly smuggled cars, oil, cigarettes and other goods worth $6.4b, and also cost the Chinese treasury $3.6b in lost import duties. Few Chinese believe the Yuanhua case is more than a particularly severe example of a nationwide problem. An expert on customs issues estimates 20% of Chinese customs officials accept bribes of some sort; another suspects the percentage might be far higher in certain parts of the country. A former customs official noted that they sometimes feel more allegiance to the local government than to Beijing. In any event, ”[t]housands of officials have been punished in years-long anti-graft campaigns. This year, courts have put to death a deputy-provincial governor and a deputy chairman of China’s legislature - the highest-level officials executed for corruption since the party came to power 51 years ago”. Informed observers agree the government is dead serious in tackling corruption, but Party-only law enforcement and a system where graft is“part of the culture”for low-paid officials, means it will be years if not decades before China can stamp out corruption. AP,”Blame Given in Chinese Mine Accident”NYT 13 Nov:-further to AP 17 Oct article on the huge death toll in Chinese mines, this reports the last body had recently been retrieved from the site of a terrible mine explosion on 27 Sep, bringing the total fatalities to 162.”China’s mines are the deadliest in the world, bedevilled by poor safety equipment and lax enforcement of safety laws. Many miners are unemployed farmers with no mine training. In the first 10 months of the year, 4,883 people were killed in coal mines...according to [understated] official figures”. In this case, the accident source was a power cut to a ventilator [frequent] causing a buildup of gas, which ignited when a miner dismantled a light. Excessive overtime to maintain profitability(shifts of over 12 hours)also contributed to the high loss of life. Economist 18 Nov,”China: Misery Behind the Migration”(52-4);”China’s Schools for Non-Children”(54):-two closely-related items on problems faced by rural populations, even if they migrate to the rich coastal cities. Apart from local poverty, many rural communities have faced the end of/reductions in government-provided social facilities and non-payment of social support, e.g. for schooling. In addition,”farmers are racked by taxes”, some set, and all collected, by local bureaucrats who benefit by inflating(e.g. tripling)local income statistics on which taxes are based. “The burden of taxation, then, falls disproportionately on China’s very poorest”. This explains the huge migration, including children, to find work elsewhere - and a resulting void in census figures. Hence also the growing number and violence of rural protests against taxation. And Beijing finds both taxes and migration beyond its capacity to control. Results are mixed. Urban target areas (Beijing alone has 2m migrants)may provide(unpleasant)jobs for most arrivals, but schools for their children are harder to find. State schools charge exorbitant fees and private schools are even pricier. Fortunately, non-profit private schools for migrants(200 around Beijing)are starting to meet this urgent need. Rosenthal, “Defiant Chinese Muslims Keep Their Own Time”NYT 19 Nov:-further to 24 Oct AP, this item from Kashgar, Xinjiang, Western China, describes the worsening political/economic/ethnic status of the 7m Muslim, Turkic speaking Uighurs as their once-insulated society becomes dominated by Han Chinese migrants, and they struggle for employment in the changing economy.(For geographic reasons they refuse to live by Beijing time as decreed for all of China.) Most Uighurs, ”defiant and increasingly disaffected,[find almost everything] suffused with questions of power, control and ethnic divisions”. Yet their reactions are rarely violent, but take the form of many little acts of personal challenge”like wearing Islamic dress, refusing to speak Chinese or setting your watch to local time”. Since Uighurs are also wary of the Islamic militancy in nearby Central Asia, their deepening sense of marginalization/alienation is partly reflected in a serious urban drug problem. Perhaps most ominous, however, is the wide and growing isolation between the two cultures and races. CHINA-UNHCR MEMO OF UNDERSTANDING: Reuters,”UN Rights Chief Signs`Milestone’China Pact”NYT 20 Nov; AP,”United Nations, China Sign Human-Rights Pact”NYT 20 Nov; AP,”U.N., China Debate Human Rights”NYT 21 Nov; Economist, 25 Nov,”China’s Human Rights Promises: Some Milestone”(43); Eckholm, ”China’s Rights Stand: Progress or an Irrelevance?”NYT 27 Nov:-these articles all relate directly to Reuters 31 Oct item on China’s real attitude towards the two UN human rights“Covenants” which it has signed but has not ratified. On 20 Nov, Mary Robinson, the UNHCHR, and Chinese Vice FM Wang Guangya signed an MOU(after two years of“talks”)that Wang said would help China“know more about”the practices of“other countries” under the two human rights conventions. UNHCHR claimed it was a”very significant move”, would ”build a stronger culture of human rights”and bring China closer to international norms through programs in human rights education, police/judicial training, and UN in situ investigation of forced labor”reform”camps and alleged torture. She clearly saw it as committing China to comply with the Conventions and review some current rights abuses. Next day, however, Politburo member Li Tieying more bluntly insisted human rights are“relative” and determined by the special conditions of each country and ethnicity [Tibet?]. President Jiang also told Robinson China has“its own way of promoting and protecting human rights”. While UNHCHR raised all the usual criticisms of China’s”own way”, she did not appear to make headway. Eckholm surmises Beijing is confident”China can navigate diplomatic dialogues and possibly loophole-ridden treaties”. Impact of“surging economic and social change and the spread of the Internet”and middle class will be“vastly stronger forces for political change”than an MOU. Worse, they may actually produce a tightening of screws. The Economist agreed that while Robinson duly stressed the need for Beijing to drop its“moral relativism” and really cooperate with UN observers, this is unlikely to happen soon. Yet the Chinese government is being hurt domestically and internationally by”the sort of gross excesses routinely committed by local police and officials”, and the UN can help in practical ways Beijing’s genuine attempts to curb this. By simply signing a human rights agreement, even if it is barely implemented, Beijing also helps/hopes to soften its authoritarian image and increase its global acceptance as a“normal”state worthy of joining multilateral organizations(such as WTO), or helping form free trade pacts. Economist 25 Nov,”China: Running Out of Steam”(43):-this article discusses an urgent problem being forced on Beijing by its wish/need to become a part of the modern (interdependent) world. Its”new obsession”: to ensure energy supplies to drive its multiplying power stations/vehicles, is first complicated by unpredictable oil prices and only-too-predictable pollution crises. These must in many ways influence China’s global relationships. Then, energy demand (growing 3.5% a year)will double over the next 20 years - and 80% is now met by coal, making China’s CO₂ emissions second only to those of the US - and 14% of world total. With the globe’s most polluted cities, air pollution kills 200,000 a year. Beijing claims it will close 18,000 mines and install cleaner coal technologies... A net oil importer only since 1993, China has both inefficient refineries and depleted fields. Yet oil consumption will rise 80% by 2010, and one-third refined domestically is already imported - if from carefully diversified sources. Gas consumption(only 2.5% of energy use)will rise fast, since China apparently has “vast” reserves -much in Xinjiang- and plans for pipelines to Shanghai. However, pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan are also needed, plus LNG terminals along the coast. Through its massive energy needs alone, then, China’s security will increasingly be related to global stability. Rosenthal,”Blinded by Poverty: The Dark Side of Economic Reform”NYT 21 Nov:-the effect of China’s economic reforms on medical services. “Twenty years ago, China boasted the broadest public health system in the world, offering free(if basic) health care to all. But the country’s shift to a market economy has upended that balance, allowing entry of more advanced medical techniques but also making even simple procedures widely unaffordable...Today, medical care in China is almost entirely a matter of cash from individual patients, and there is no public health insurance for the poor...The [WHO] now rates China last among developing countries in terms of equal access to medical care [where] treatment is often an economic rather than a medical decision”. Article describes how(partly foreign)charities enabled cataract surgery to restore the sight of 1.1m poor in four years. Reuters”China Steps Up Bid to Reach 40 Trapped Miners”NYT 30 Nov:-item in effect admits no hope remains for 40 miners trapped in an Inner Mongolian coal mine for six days. A gas explosion had already killed 11 and injured 23. (AP 13 Nov/Economist 25 Nov also report on China’s horrendous coal problem.) Cause of this explosion was not known, but a National Coal Safety Board ostensibly supervises China’s 40,000(sic)mines, and”improved safety standards”had closed down 18,000 illegal/unregulated mines in Jan-Sep 00 alone. AP,”Death Toll Up in China Mine Blast”NYT 20 Dec:-reports that the death toll from the Inner Mongolian coal mine explosion was confirmed at 51(i.e. 11 in initial explosion and 40 trapped underground by it). Cause of the blast was determined to have been a pocket of explosive gas which was not allowed to escape because, like many Chinese mines, there was inadequate ventilation. In the first 10 months of year, 4,883 people were killed in mines, so since Nov new regulations require routine safety inspections and proper training for miners. Reuters”Chinese Mall Collapses, Scores Believed Dead”NYT 02 Dec;”China Detains Four After Fatal Mall Collapse”NYT 03 Dec:-construction is another industry where lack of standards/controls, plus corruption, take a high toll in lives in spite of new attempts by Beijing to impose higher standards. PM Zhu has angrily described the shoddy work plaguing the building industry as“bean curd”(tofu)construction. In this case, more than a hundred people may have died when an illegally-built mall, built on obviously dangerous ground, suddenly and totally collapsed when two storeys were being illegally added over a foundation built for one - with no shopping constraints/ warnings. In 1999 a Party official was sentenced to death for taking bribes and dereliction of duty after a bridge collapse killed 40 people; only a week before the mall tragedy another bridge collapse injured 19, five seriously. Such regular but avoidable accidents are of course not all reported. Eckholm,”China’s Top Justice Official Ousted, Some Say for Corruption”NYT 02 Dec; Reuters, ”Chinese Justice Minister Was Removed From Office”NYT 04 Dec; Economist, 09 Dec“China: Justice For All?”(47-8):-articles all relate to the sudden departure of Gao Changli, Chinese Minister of Justice, from his job, together with a variety of official and private explanations and some very interesting speculation. What is clear is that Gao was actively involved in the anti-corruption campaign which has already caught some big fish(see previous items). While the Justice Ministry has no direct power over prosecutors and courts -”notoriously susceptible to political control and corruption” (Eckholm),Gao had reportedly been overseeing recent reforms to the legal system, and had personally taken a leading role in promoting the rule of law. “What remains unclear...is whether[he]was himself fingered in China’s escalating war against official corruption, or brought down by his political enemies...Either way, justice is probably the loser”(Economist). Eckholm,”Chinese Find Power Abuse Isn’t Limited to the Cities”NYT 03 Dec:-”[T]he abuse of power by rural officials[is]increasingly reported in the national press, a sign of concern among Beijing leaders about lawlessness in the countryside even as they struggle...against corruption in the cities. No one knows how many lawless fiefdoms are operating across China. But since Communist Party bosses usually have firm control over local police, courts and press, only a fraction of crimes may be reported”. The press is publicly encouraged to expose corruption, but since Beijing is also obsessed about stability, the Party fears a free press and reports are vetted. In addition, because of the enormous local power of some of those abusing it, many people do not dare to speak up. The article describes two amazing, but perhaps not extraordinary, cases of local tyranny and greed. Eckholm,”Two Pro-Democracy Leaders in China Sentenced to Prison”NYT 06 Dec:-China’s Communist leaders are very determined“to stamp out all remnants of political opposition as they prepare for the risky opening of China’s economy to global competition”by joining the WTO(next item). The article reports that two years after a crackdown began on a short-lived pro-democracy party, two more leaders have been sent to prison, bringing the total to 30. In early 1998, hundreds joined to promote a new, unregistered democratic party. This rapidly expanded since at first it seemed acceptable to the authorities. In late 1998, however, three major leaders were arrested and given heavy prison terms, and dozens of organizers were picked up later. Reuters,”China Envoy Upbeat on WTO, But Talks to Drag On”NYT 08 Dec:-the end of China’s 14-year Long March into GATT/WTO may be in sight - but with some differences over the ETA. Chinese negotiator Long Yongtu said he hoped and believed entry could take place before the end of the Clinton administration on 20 Jan. Other negotiators, however, doubted the pact would be completed”until at least several months into the new year”. The last major obstacles relate to Chinese agricultural support and industrial subsidies. The only major bilateral pacts to conclude are those with Mexico and Panama. Since Beijing knows it may be gambling China’s economic/political stability on the effects of WTO entry, it plays its hand very carefully. AP,”China Destroys Hundreds of Churches”NYT 13 Dec:-”religious revival has swept China in recent years. Lively underground church movements service Catholics and Protestants, who refuse to worship under state control. Unorthodox groups influenced by Buddhism, Christianity and other faiths also have sprung up”. Within this context, officials have announced that“China is demolishing hundreds of churches and temples as it cracks down on unauthorized worship in a southeastern coastal area known for its flourishing religious life”. One spokesman announced:”In rural areas, superstition is still very rampant. The government’s goal is to demolish those illegal buildings as well as correct those decadent rural lifestyles”. A local official said 450 buildings were destroyed, but human rights groups claim the actual number dynamited was 1,200. Reuters,”Rights Group: Police Kill Five Muslims in China”NYT 14 Dec:-a Hong Kong-based human rights group claims,”Chinese police shot and killed five Muslims of the Hui ethnic minority in a conflict involving some 300 Muslims in the northeastern province of Shandong”. Officials admitted 40 others were injured. A demonstration resulted from a Han ethnic majority-run shop claiming to sell pork to the unclean. Eckholm, “Silk Workers in Standoff With Beijing Over Union”NYT 15 Dec; AP,”Wife: China Union Leader Drugged” NYT 17 Dec:-”China allows only government-approved unions overseen by the ruling Communist Party, and authorities have jailed or exiled labor activists who sought to form independent unions. Activists say official unions are unresponsive to appeals from workers and fail to protect worker rights”(AP). Eckholm reports confrontation between workers and state-owned silk factory unable to pay regular pensions or allowances to those laid off, at least partly because of management corruption. Workers, led by Cao Maobin, voiced standard complaints about useless official union, and threatened to form their own. Beijing, though fearful of independent unions, did not respond to workers’ complaints. Harassment and threats against Cao and his family increased when he and others began organizing a union. When leader spoke to press, the police seized and put him in a mental hospital though his wife and friends say he remains perfectly sane. He has been forced to take unidentified drugs. AP,”China: Tibet Rail Ready in 2007"NYT 15 Dec; Economist 16 Dec,”Tibet: China’s Contacts With the Dalai Lama”(45-6);Reuters, ”Rights Group Knocks China-Tibet Railway Plan”NYT 23 Dec:-all articles imply that Beijing is increasingly concerned about its ability to control Tibet. AP reports China has finished planning the first railway to Tibet,”a link that would knit the restive Himalayan region tighter with the rest of China”. So far, Tibet has been accessible from China proper only by tortuous road or air. Now, engineers having finally ”overcome” permafrost and earthquake construction problems, a track will connect Lhasa directly to the Chinese rail network in 5-7 years. The project will “boost the economy,...increase tourism and promote unity”. Meanwhile, various bans on Tibetan religious activities have been relaxed, and Beijing has admitted to“channels of contact”with the Dalai Lama. Moreover the Dalai’s life and loyal following may well outlast peace in China, so“contacts” with him”could be essential in helping China maintain stability”. He has astutely even offered to accept“a high level of autonomy” for Tibet and thus“help reduce the danger of instability”. Other articles indicate China is anxious to settle its border disputes with India. Reuters reports the reaction of the London-based Tibet Information Network is that:”The railway will enable the authorities to move army and security forces more easily for the purposes both of border defense and of internal control, and will be a further step toward the integration of Tibetan areas into the Chinese state as a means of achieving stability”. Critically, it would lead to increased Han migration into areas mainly populated by ethnic Tibetans. State media add it would be one of China’s most ambitious efforts to open the resource-rich Himalayan region to economic development(Tibet is China’s only province-level region without a railway network). While some Tibetans would gain better access to markets, Han immigrants, the Chinese state, and mining companies would be the main beneficiaries. Of four possible routes, one via Yunnan would open up previously inaccessible areas for farming/tourism. AP,”China Hopes to Cap Population”NYT 19 Dec:-while article mainly concentrates on demographics and is summarized under POPULATION, it is relevant here that a new government policy paper states China hopes to stabilize its population at 1.6 billion by mid-century by persuading(sic)women to have fewer children and bear them later in life. Greater education, and higher social and economic status for women, will work to this end, but a one-child policy“must remain in place for the foreseeable future to keep China’s population from spiraling out of control”. Reuters,”Major Chinese Lake Disappearing in Water Crisis”NYT 20 Dec:-previous articles (Economist 14 Oct; Eckholm 17 Oct)already stressed China’s increasingly serious water problems, particularly in the north. This item claims the largest lake in northern China”appears doomed to dry out early next year, parched by lack of rainfall and reckless use of water by factories and farmers..The threat to Baiyangdian Lake ...has highlighted a water crisis in China so severe it threatens the country’s economic development and social stability. Hundreds of thousands...have grown dependent...for drinking, fishing [,industry]and agriculture [on]the 360-sq kilometer lake[which]is unlikely to survive without a massive canal project to begin next year that will divert water from the mighty Yangtze[of]central China”. A water shortage is now affecting “vast”areas of China, and civil unrest over water issues has broken out”several times in recent months”. A deadly riot took place when officials cut off water supplies from a reservoir used for irrigation; six were killed when a channel was blown up to prevent diversion of water to a new power station. An official in the north admitted: ”We place all our hopes in the south-to-north water transfer project”. Eckholm,”China Widening Crackdown on Corruption”NYT 23 Dec; Reuters,”Top Chinese Mayor Suspected of Gangster Links”NYT 23 Dec; Reuters,”China Officials Face Tougher Anti-Corruption Moves”NYT 26 Dec:-as the anti-corruption campaign turns up more and more serious crimes, those incriminated get closer to the very pinnacles of power. “The secrecy surrounding[some cases]reflects the growing quandary facing Communist Party leaders: To regain fading public faith, they are making a show of decisive action against corruption. But the scandals have become distressingly widespread, and it appears that some suspect higher officials have been left alone, while other cases are never reported in the official media...In one of China’s most politically sensitive corruption cases, the former chief of military intelligence has reportedly been sentenced to 15 years in prison for embezzlement and bribery”. Moreover, he was apparently allied with the head of the huge smuggling ring described in AP 08 Nov; Rosenthal 09 Nov, and used his position to embezzle millions of dollars from military-run corporations(Eckholm). Meanwhile senior officers in the major city of Shenyang were under investigation and forced to resign for their dealings with a criminal syndicate, and the mayor also resigned for suspected involvement with triad gangs and gambling(Reuters 23 Dec). In a year-end assessment of the anti-corruption campaign(Reuters 26 Dec), Wei Jianxing, Secretary of the CP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, concluded China had made“new and marked progress”in 2000. Officials have punished 130,000 people at all(sic)levels and seized 5,154 cars and 4,465 computers, either paid for by public funds or unlawfully obtained. More sensational hauls are expected, and“China will continue to crack down hard on major cases...in the coming year”(Wei). Anti-corruption laws have also been further tightened. Senior ministerial/provincial level officials must list their family property earnings, ”leading”officials are prohibited from accepting cash or other benefits from individuals or work units, or financial sponsorship or invitations for overseas visits from domestic or overseas enterprises, and anti-nepotism rules will be extended to officials at the county level. Economist 23 Dec,”China’s Great Leap West: Go West, Young Han”(45-6):-“[The] campaign to develop the vast but poor western regions of China promises to become the chief domestic obsession of the country’s rulers over the coming years”(cf Smith 07 Nov). They include nine provinces, over half China’s territory and a quarter of its population, but well over half its poorest 80m. Claims the campaign received $13b in 2000 and will get at least as much in future are ”implausible”; little emphasis is put on ending the dominant and inefficient state firms, or on poverty-reducing measures like education, health and local roads. Concentration is on vast infrastructure projects: rebuilding the Lhasa-Beijing road; 150,000km of new highways; a railway to Lhasa(AP 15 Dec)and perhaps Yunnan-Singapore;, a $15b gas pipeline Xinjiang-Beijing; hydro-power, metals, coal and oil development. It is unclear how local communities will benefit, but it all makes sense if the aims are to exploit resources, speed security access and ease Han immigration. The west has the highest proportion of non-Han minorities and China’s least-secure borders. Economist 23 Dec,”Kidnapping in China”(53-4):-very sad report, built on the story of a couple that lost its only son. ”It is impossible to know how much kidnapping is going on in China; the number of rescues is only the tip of the problem. But certainly the numbers have risen, both of children, mostly boys, and of young women, mostly for wives. As well as the 13,000[children rescued in a crackdown],the authorities [claim] to have found 110,000 women, most of whom had been sold as brides, though many will have been put to domestic service or prostitution”. Whether they had ever stopped under CCP rule, ”prostitution, concubinage, bride-selling, slavery and drug addiction...are all back now” in one form or another. Reasons: resurgence of old social habits(in addition to the above evils, it is a traditional Chinese right to have a son),plus new economic incentives(poor parents-particularly migrants-”often”sell children; kidnapped victims bring good money: up to $1000 for teenage brides and around $3000 for little boys). Officials now show recognition of human rights. Eckholm,”In China’s Heartland, the Fertile Fields Lie Fallow”NYT 24 Dec:-In Anhui and nearby regions, known as the granary of China for the rich soil, 5-15% of scarce cropland has recently gone unused, and the practice is spreading. “Abandonment of some of China’s most fertile land reflects the economic difficulty that has engulfed central China in recent years, trapping millions of farm families and leading to frequent reports of rural unrest”. China has surplus grain, and is phasing out farm subsidies in preparation for global competition when it joins the WTO. Where(as in Anhui)farmers continue to concentrate on rice cultivation, their equal-sized -and hence tiny- plots are inefficient and costly, and the returns not enough to pay local taxes. Yet families may not sell their land or even give it away; nor can they move permanently to cities to get new jobs. Now that the farms do not pay, the young people have no choice but to(illegally)seek menial jobs in cities, in part to help meet farm taxes at home. Short of labor, and with no motivation to produce beyond subsistence, those remaining let many of China’s most fertile fields lie fallow. Local taxes continue, however, since services(schools, roads, etc. - which Beijing demands but does not fund)must be financed by such taxes. Where there are many land-use options(including small industry)the situation is far better; but Anhui’s stalemate reflects broad, politically-sensitive issues going far beyond farms. Solutions must raise productivity, perhaps by encouraging higher-value crops than rice, by creation of non-farm jobs nearby, or by granting land-ownership rights/allowing cooperatives, so permitting land consolidation/ mechanization. AP,”China, U.S. Trade May Hit New High”NYT 24 Dec:-bilateral trade should reach a record $73.5b in 2000, a 23.4% increase Jan-Oct over 1999. In that period, US imported $43.4b(up 27%); China imported $18b(up 15%). In Oct alone, US bilateral deficit was $9.1b, the biggest US deficit ever with a single country. Total US investments in China, $60b, make it the largest foreign investor(Hong Kong/Taiwan investment not counted). Significantly, this situation(just?)pre-dates the huge bilateral impact of China joining the WTO. Reuters, ”China, Vietnam Settle Tonkin Gulf Border Dispute”NYT 25 Dec:-as one more sign of an apparent Chinese trend to improve relations with its neighbours(possibly in connection with WTO membership, pushing an Asian FTA, saving defense costs, or preparing for internal disorder - see items above), the presidents of China and Vietnam have signed an agreement settling a long-standing border dispute in the Tonkin Gulf. After years of negotiations and the settlement of the land border in 1999, their EEZs and territorial waters were demarcated, and fisheries allocated. The official Vietnamese media stressed the agreements’ epochal role, undoubtedly forgetting the still-outstanding and multi-claimed competition for the Spratley and Paracel Islands. Further to Reuters items of 02 and 03 Dec regarding the fatal fire at a mall, Reuters,”Suspects Held in Deadly Central China Fire”NYT 27 Dec; AP,”China Fire Victims’ Kin Protest”NYT 28 Dec:-the first states that NCNA had reported only that police had”made arrests”in connection with the fire, that the cause of the fire was“under investigation”, and that the dance hall(where most of the 309 deaths took place)had been”operating illegally”. Other sources reported that the building had failed 18 fire safety tests, had already been ordered closed, and that the exits from the disco were blocked by boxes. Too late, the Ministry of Public Security has now released (another) ”urgent”circular ordering all discos/dance halls operating without a licence or fire control system to be closed immediately, and that hotels, shopping malls, hospitals and schools should be checked. Because of local corruption, such warnings in the past have had little effect. AP also reports that more than 200 relatives of those killed had marched and blocked traffic in an“angry protest”against callous official reactions. Apparently the police had detained 12 people, including managers of the supermarket chain that owned the building, and four welders who probably caused the fire, were working illegally, and who fled without warning others. Smith,”China at Gate of Profound Shift”NYT 28 Dec:-this report on the development of private enterprise and finance in China emphasises that new rules allowing privately-owned companies access to Chinese capital markets“could ultimately reshape China’s economic landscape”because private companies now have a chance at becoming the main engine of the economy. The political implications are enormous since - as private businesses grow in number and wealth - their owners will become a powerful constituency; the rule of law and access to finance will make them independent from political power. The existing system, geared to helping state-owned enterprises (SOEs)survive, “encourages bribery and crams the markets with low-quality state companies”; SOEs get almost all the money raised on Chinese markets, so entrepreneurs remain politically isolated and financially hobbled. As China’s securities firms decide which concerns will go public,”in 10 years private companies will dominate the stock market”. Beijing accepts that, within WTO rules, a growing private sector is the best chance for saving China’s economy from foreign domination, and the quickest solution to rising unemployment. AP"China Says Court Abuses Continue” NYT 28 Dec 2000:-Chairman of the Committee for Internal and Judicial Affairs of the National People’s Congress, claims that, three years after passage of a law to protect defendants’ rights, forced confessions are still widespread, and judges and prosecutors illegally restrict the work of defense attorneys. Moreover, courts continue to hold defendants longer than allowed, refuse them access to defense lawyers, and reject “reasonable petitions”. The problems are blamed on“lack of knowledge”by law enforcers, and call for better education and supervision, since they are causing“terrible social consequences”. Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] the best political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints, tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - then the problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field' between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting the poor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberal rather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles show where and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White' Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy. Elizabeth Economy“Don’t Break the Engagement: Staying the Course on China”Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3 (May/Jun 04):-Director of Asia Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, author of The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future. Aims in 04 of Bush administration and US Congress might relate to strongly criticizing Chinese politics/trade again. But“US can best help foster reform in China by being sensitive to both opportunities/limitations of its influence”. While argument structurally amplified, vast bulk of major article to describe in detail big trends, explain activities of groups/policies, analyse leaders’ and Communist Party’s hopes/fears: (1)“For China’s leaders, time now of essence. [C]rime/ government corruption-spread, social welfare...deteriorated, and public alienation/distrust that resulted now threaten CCP’s legitimacy”. (2)“[P]olitical reform resolutely moving forward... To give people greater stake in political process, [leaders] increasing transparency in government practices, broadening CCP’s membership base, experimenting electoral reform”. (3)Since 78, number of lawyers in China skyrocketed from 2,000 to 120,000. [L]egal reform has assumed other, urgent purposes: to attack corruption, quiet social unrest and, in process, enhance legitimacy of China’s leadership”. (4)“Media... become critical players in Beijing’s anticorruption campaign and its effort to be more transparent. [2,000 daily newspapers, 900 TV stations serve 90m cable users] Internet been especially potent catalyst for political discussion[79.5m users]. [H]elped bring wide public attention to debates over legal system/individual rights. (5)Rather than develop comprehensive/universal [social welfare] system to replace one once provided by state-owned enterprises/ collective agriculture, China’s leaders encouraged individuals/NGOs, churches, and women’s associations”. (6)“Although China’s leaders seem clearly resolved to continue down reform path, much about strategy remains uncertain [1-party system]. [I]ntellectuals also divided over most desirable/likely course for reform". Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13)'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings. The Economist 01 Oct 05"Protests in China: The Cauldron Boils"(38-9):-"Chinese government getting increasingly twitchy about... rapid growth in number/scale of public protests. [F]ace serious instability? Probably not, for now at least. But in longer term, reasons to worry... Almost always ['mass incidents'] sparked by local grievances, rather than antipathy to party's rule... [Officially,] some 74,000 protests in [04], involving more than 3.7m. [D]emonstrations involving more than 100 occurred in 337 cities and 1,955 counties in 10 months[of 04. P]olice forces merging existing anti-riot and counter-terrorist units into new 'special police'... In some ways, unrest makes China look much more like normal developing country than rigidly controlled system it was until early 90s. Increasingly common to encounter small-scale protests in Chinese cities that only few years ago would have horrified order-obsessed cadres. [O]fficials often say