Jared Diamond Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies(New York: W.W.Norton 99):-brilliant and fascinating book seeks to explain dangerously unequal societies in world. Taking a long-term view, Diamond rejects racism and sees cultures as reactions to environments (cf Sowell, op.cit.). Divergence of societies(by geographic area)reflected:(1)“[C]ontinental differences in...wild plant and animal species as starting materials for domestication [compared to hunting-gathering, since]food production was critical for accumulation of food surpluses that could feed non-food-producing specialists, and for buildup of large populations enjoying... military advantage...even before they had developed any technical or political advantage; (2)[R]ates of diffusion and migration, which differed greatly among[and between]continents [depending on climates, barriers, distances];(3)[C]ontinental differences in area or total population size”which affect numbers of inventors, competing societies, and innovations available/adopted, and disease immunity. Environment is therefore critical. Recent reports: Michael Szonyi,”China: The Years Ahead”in International Journal Vol.LV/No.3(Summer 00):-supports Roberts et al. in stressing China’s global importance because it is already unstable. Economy: Farm incomes and small industry stagnate for need of technology/economies of scale, forcing more capital-intensive growth and less job-creation. So unemployment is rising rapidly, helped by corruption, inefficiency, social-welfare erosion, mis-investment, regional disparities and WTO rules. Politics: Jiang(only conditionally supported by PLA)presides over a debate, not about democracy vs authoritarianism, but over the best speed and timing of reform to keep CCP in power. As social dislocation/unrest are inevitable, Beijing must control regions through controlling finance, and social movements with(potential)force. Meanwhile it can distract domestic concern by using aggressive nationalistic rhetoric about foreign encirclement. Military: Action in almost all directions is highly risky. The Taiwan issue shapes many other security relations, even though the PLA lacks the capacity to invade. In fact weakness makes China“unable to project decisive force beyond its immediate borders”(481). Moreover China’s potential non-military security challenges include the environment, organized crime, and migrant flows. A longer and more specific analysis is fortunately available on the Web at http://www.csis-scrs.gc.ca. This is the full text of the Fall 2000/No.79 issue of Commentary, a publication of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service . Also by Michael Szonyi, a professor at the University of Toronto, its focus is the next five years:”Potential For Domestic Instability in the People’s Republic of China in the Medium-Term(2001-2006)”. The paper discusses some of the major challenges to Chinese stability, much from the Chinese point of view. It concludes that:”Many factors could lead to varying degrees of domestic instability in the PRC in the period, including dissatisfaction with economic change, ethnic separatism, and religious ideology. While leadership and succession issues, tensions between the civilian leadership and the army, and the commitment to recover Taiwan may contribute to the overall uncertainty, challenges to stability are less likely to come from the political domain”(2). As evidence of the growing social unrest already produced by tougher economic conditions, see Elisabeth Rosenthal, ”Factory Closings in China Arouse Workers’ Fury”in New York Times 31 Aug 00:-this article, though mostly describing particular demonstrations (and the temporary hostage-taking of foreign managers), gives a detailed account of the sort of labor troubles China is likely to see increasing as industry is forced to modernize -with now much-reduced social safety-nets. The conclusion is also ominous: ”[D]isturbances have been reported from many rural areas as farmers with stagnant incomes face growing tax burdens from local governments”. Craig S. Smith, ”Chinese Farmers Rebel Against Bureaucracy” NYT 17 Sep:-this article adds personal evidence of such “disturbances” in rural areas through interviews with farmers and officials. In one town over 10,000 angry peasants converged on the town hall ”demanding relief from high taxes and administrative fees that eat up any profit from farming...When word of...protest spread, thousands more angry farmers rampaged through neighbouring towns...Such disturbances are increasingly common...where as many as 900 million people still depend on the land for their livelihood. The peasant class...is growing restive again, swelling the ranks of the country’s dissatisfied along with laid-off workers, struggling pensioners and the millions of Chinese who have migrated from the countryside to cities where they eke out a tenuous existence...But the most fundamental cause of the problem cuts to the heart of...one-party rule:The farmers have no political power... [Appointed]local party officials wield the real power[and like]imperial tax collectors of old...charge fees for every[thing]...With financial burdens growing and grain[prices]falling, millions of farmers are abandoning their fields. [Yet, with 150m more still working the land than are needed to feed China,] farmers lack the economies of scale [and] production costs... exceed those of farmers in industrialized countries.” Local officials resist any tax reforms, since these would only reduce their own power and income. The Economist 09 Sep”Europe and America: Weathering the Storm” (23-6):-contends NATO must continue its security cooperation over the next 30 years to deal with major threats anywhere in the globe. (The UN is not mentioned, but since the Gulf War ad hoc alliance is seen as the most likely scenario for any major military operations, this coincides with UN capabilities/needs.) In putting the”chief places from which trouble might come”over the period in order of probability, China leads the list. Its”one-party political system..., to justify its existence, needs to find a substitute for its bust ideology... [Moreover, a] country with a nationalist foreign-policy agenda is often prepared to pay a sizeable economic price to get what it wants”(24). Eric Schmitt,”Senate Votes to Lift Curbs on US Trade With China”NYT 20 Sep:-on 19 Sep the Permanent Normal Trade Relations(PNTR)bill completed its passage through Congress. This ended the annual Congressional review of China’s terms of access to the world’s largest market -a 20-year ritual, considered degrading by Beijing, which had been felt necessary and effective in forcing China to improve its record on human rights. In addition to substantial trade/legislative concessions China makes to gain entry into the WTO later this year, Beijing conceded to US companies many valuable new trade/investment opportunities in China, balanced by virtually no US concessions besides PNTR. The bilateral negotiations had won major reductions in”Chinese tariffs on a range of farm and industrial products and remove[d] barriers to American service providers, like banks and telecommunications companies”. As Schmitt notes in a similar article of 6 Sep, the two agreements are therefore expected to have significant effects in accelerating the reform(and unsettling)of the Chinese economy -and hence politics. David E. Sanger,”New Realism Wins the Day as Senate Passes Trade Bill”NYT 20 Sep:-as China’s global economic and political role “loomed ever larger”, it became clearer “Congress’ periodic threat that it would refuse to renew China’s annual trade status was empty”. Now, with PNTR,”the real test will come as America tries to use its deepening trade relationship as leverage to open China’s political system”. Yet the ultimate result depends on China. Smith, ”Chinese See Pain as Well as Profit in New Trade Era”NYT 21 Sep:-there is“growing trepidation”in China about the effects of its trade concessions. ”Many Chinese worry [their country] is ill-prepared to face...global competition”, and that while Chinese industries will be forced to become stronger in the long run, “many people are expected to lose their jobs along the way”. In particular, China’s”local governments, industrial regulators and state-owned enterprises are not ready for what lies ahead”. Peasants are among the least prepared to compete with importers selling cheaper yet higher-quality farm products. Telecommunications and banking, long sheltered, will face”wrenching change”. Some manufacturers, already used to competition, can adjust, but government monopolies are inexperienced. “A wave of bankruptcies will sweep through the economy”. Even established foreign companies must adjust to new conditions, although the laws will be changed slowly and by degrees, as has already begun. Many will be cut by this“double-edged sword”. William Jefferson Clinton, ”China’s Opportunities”NYT 24 Sep:-President summarizes US policy towards China in Op-Ed. He describes passage of PNTR as”the most important development in our relationship with [China] since we normalized ties in 1979"- at a critical point in the country’s development. “At stake is how China evolves over a decade or more. Will it resist globalization, or harness it to meet human needs? Will it reject popular demands for more freedom and accountability, or achieve the stability that comes only from letting people shape their own lives?” Despite political risks, creating a more open/competitive economy is”the only way for China to meet its mounting challenges and avoid internal upheaval and disintegration”. “The one sure path to stability...in this global age, lies in change. It must meet its WTO obligations(we will help); and continue adjusting its conduct to meet international standards(with our encouragement and international pressure). The US will maintain its military presence in Asia as”a balance wheel for stability”, helped by any reduction in China-US mutual suspicion. We have chosen”to extend our hand rather than merely clenching our fist”. [The stress on positive US motives and the reform-stability link, deliberately address China’s fears.] Smith,”Graft in China Flows Freely, Draining the Treasury”NYT 01 Oct:-a major source of instability is the corruption “riddling”the Chinese system;”graft throughout the country’s many-layered government is draining the state treasury, crippling the economy and angering the people”. National Audit Bureau reported that more than $15b in government funds was squandered in 1999. Since much ends up in private hands, China is littered with”half-built office towers, unfinished bridges and roads to nowhere”. Beijing is executing“droves”of crooked Party members, but critics claim”corruption is inherent to a system where a one-party hierarchy, based on political patronage and protection, controls the allocation and use of state-owned assets”. It is easy to allocate them to personal benefit, particularly if officials are still paid ridiculously low wages. Moreover corruption has only grown worse as the Party’s”ideological foundation deteriorates”and central economic controls are relaxed. Legal or press whistle-blowing results only in jail for the critics. Tragically, the worst graft may be in Water Resources ministry whose(expensive)flood/drought-control projects can mean life or death for millions. Economist 23 Sep,”China: A Revolution in Learning to Think”(50):-since, in total, the Chinese education system is now moulding about 285m students, one in every four in the world, any problems/changes are of truly global importance. So the world should take note when PM Zhu announces“a far-reaching education overhaul...is among China’s top priorities”, especially as entrenched philosophies/methods of teaching are“shaped by centuries of Confucian tradition and decades of socialis[m]”. Yet communism felt”both an ideological need to bring literacy and education to the broader masses, and a practical need to train vast numbers of officials”; hence Beijing did achieve much. However, the challenges of a rapidly-changing world are complex. One problem is priorities: there has been much spent on the top universities at the expense of lower-level education(there are only 7m university students), and many poor get no schooling at all, partly because the decentralization of school finance has hit some areas hard. In addition to administrative/funding reform, students will follow broader research methods/learning styles, partly through use of many foreign textbooks. Finally, there is reaction to the stress and lack of innovative thinking produced by rote learning. Associated Press,”Villagers Moved for Dam Project”NYT 04 Oct:-two US-based NGOs, Human Rights in China and International Rivers Network have reported that villagers being relocated to make room for the reservoir of China’s controversial Three Gorges Dam have”rioted, besieged government offices and abandoned new homes in anger over shoddy, corrupt resettlement projects”. While the reports could not be independently confirmed, they contained considerable detail, and added to many previous accusations of official corruption and mismanagement relating to the dam. The world’s largest hydroelectric project, it will require resettlement of over a million people, and hence involves huge sums of money. Even Chinese government auditors admit local officials have embezzled about $52m in resettlement funds; private groups claim far more has been lost. Economist 30 Sep”China’s State-Owned Enterprises”(71-3):-”China’s economic future depends on...reform of the SOEs, and thus of the country’s socialist economy”. Imminent WTO entry and SOE exposure to global competition makes this urgent. SOEs account for 28% of total output, 44% of urban employment, 70% of state revenue. They also are 30-50% overstaffed(even with 18% of their workforce laid off); absorb some 80% of the country’s bank loans(of which funds equal to 25% of total GDP will never be paid back); and half SOEs admit losses, while many more just break even(all book-keeping is totally misleading). The underlying problems reflect a slow and partial conversion from bureaucracy to market-driven enterprises. Many SOEs offer products with no market or market them badly; many have over-invested in new machinery they now cannot afford to use; sales or loans are uncollectible(although banks must keep lending at subsidized rates); and old social responsibilities(overstaffing, cradle-to-grave welfare)are financially unsupportable. The worst problems lie in”corporate governance”: local Party bureaucrats retain the power to tax, demand and interfere; in response, managers cheat, mainly by fiddling the accounts to their personal interests. Attempted reforms divide SOEs in three groups: the hopeless (50%?) disappear(26,000 coalmines/2,500 smelters shut down); the merely bad (40%?)are “prepared for sale”to private investors(some are given more autonomy-often generating worse cheating; others must borrow on commercial terms or fold -in essence are privatised); the”potential gems”(10%?)are listed on the stockmarket. As“worker unrest has been growing;..better to be bolder now”. Economist 7 Oct”China and the WTO: Not So Fast”(86-9):-article predicts China’s admission to the WTO may be substantially delayed. Beijing was anxious to be a member in 2000 in order to participate in the next, and apparently imminent, round of global trade negotiations. It therefore signed 36 preparatory agreements with key WTO members that conceded more than it would have wished, and left details to be filled in later. Now that many LDCs are reluctant to join a new round until previous promises on agriculture and textiles are fulfilled, prospects for starting a new round soon are “dim”. China is taking the extra time to push for more favourable accession terms, particularly since WTO membership will require many tough changes to the Chinese regime, above all SOEs(previous article). Joseph Kahn and Sanger,”Clinton, Signing China Trade Bill, Issues Warning to Beijing”NYT 11 Oct:-following from the above, Clinton sent US top trade negotiator to Beijing“to warn China that its efforts to back away from crucial trade concessions threatened...trading rights...it won after a prolonged fight in Congress[and]following 14 years of negotiations”. In talks on the final terms of WTO admission, “China was slipping on pledges to open its markets that it had made”in its effort to join WTO, and had”balked at several of the most politically sensitive concessions“. China was now also insisting it be treated like an LDC, to get more time to eliminate subsidies/trade barriers used to support farmers and protect sensitive SOEs. Rules limiting foreign investment in Internet/ communications also broke pledges. Speculation is that bureaucrats/businessmen were fighting voluminous and sometimes vague liberalization concessions. AP,”China’s Party Meeting Ignores Strife”NYT 11 Oct:-significantly, the big annual CCP meeting discussed five-year plan/personnel changes -not political reform-”while popular anger over corruption, brewing unrest in the countryside and global trade’s impact on already high unemployment loom”. Chinese scholars of both left and right”predict a crisis”if the Party delays making the regime”more law-abiding and open to public participation”. One writer sees WTO entry “accelerating wrenching social change that Beijing is ill-prepared to handle”. The CCP communique was vague and unimaginative, partly reflecting caution imposed by the bargaining over leadership changes due anyway. “Meanwhile, evidence abounds of the party’s and its government’s eroding authority. [They were]even[having] trouble suppressing dissent”, in both action and print. The regime is most threatened over the issue of corruption, in reality an institutional problem. Perhaps for this reason, while the danger is recognized, no effective counter-action has been taken. AP,”China Reaffirms World Trade Promise”NYT 12 Oct; and Erik Eckholm,”Chinese Official Reassures U.S. Envoy on Firm Plans to Open Trade”NYT 13 Oct:-both articles report on U.S. trade negotiator Barshefsky’s reassuring account of her five-hour meeting with PM Zhu Rongji. She said he had given“absolutely emphatic”assurances that China would not back away from the market-opening commitments that it made to gain entry into the WTO. China will cut average tariffs on imported goods from about 25% to just 9% within 5 years to open protected banking, insurance, telecommunications and other sectors to competition. This was in spite of the fact that“powerful ministers and provincial politicians have balked, fearing competitive global trade will bury lethargic factories and farms, and compound unrest”. Economist 14 Oct,”China: Running Dry”(52):-the drought in 2000 in some areas of China has been the worst in decades, and all across China the lack of water has led to parched crops or none at all. (Even in well-watered Guangdong, 74 reservoirs dried up, and rivers became trickles.) With a 10% decline in grain yield this year and continued population growth, the water problem will probably get worse. Experts believe that by 2030, China’s needs will be pressing its limits, due to policy errors: mis-located industry, badly-planned dams, poorly-managed rivers, under-priced water, irrigated crops in dry areas. Water prices must encourage conservation, crops grown in appropriate lands, and forestation expanded to control runoff. Big problems: costs and local opposition. AP,”China Defends Military Buildup”NYT 16 Oct:-most of this article describes a”lengthy policy paper”issued by Beijing justifying (abroad?) the current increases in defense expenditures: tension with Taiwan and bullying by”major powers”(i.e. US). Authoritarian regimes usually have two domestic reasons for spending more on the armed forces - both of which probably apply here: to help ensure control over the populace in case of internal unrest, and to help buy the loyalty of at least the military leadership. A simultaneous policy paper admits“China is having trouble raising incomes among already hard-pressed farmers by the 4% target [officially] set this year”. This again illustrates Beijing’s rural challenge in“easing simmering discontent”. Unlike prosperous city-dwellers, many farmers have seen their incomes falling or stagnating for over a decade. AP,”China Mine Bosses Said Hiding Deaths”NYT 17 Oct:-despite frequent accounts in world media of horrific accidents in Chinese coal mines, apparently the real situation is even worse. A government paper reports that investigations by labor officials acting on tips from the public found that, in four counties studied, there were 56 fatal or injury-causing accidents and 113 deaths in 1999, but only 8 accidents and 62 deaths were reported by mine managers. Such a ratio is”commonplace”. If so, the more than 2,730 miners that were reported as killed in the first half of 2000 must actually hide a real total twice as large, raising the question why unrest in China is not greater. Eckholm,”China Plans to Divert Rivers to Thirsty North”NYT 17 Oct:-confirming the 14 Oct article, this reports PM Zhu has strongly endorsed the decision to divert water”as soon as possible”hundreds of miles from the water-rich south to an increasingly dry north(often the Yellow River no longer reaches the sea).“With rapid urbanization,...industrial development, as well as the spread of irrigated agriculture, water has become acutely scarce around several[northern]cities including Beijing, and conflicts have emerged between urban, industrial and farming needs”. The official press admits many rivers have run dry, lakes dried up and underground reservoirs over-exploited. Smith,”China Says Its Economy Grew at 8.2% Rate in 3rd Quarter”NYT 17 Oct:-article notes that while this growth rate was faster than expected and virtually ensures its 7-year slide has ended, it hides enduring economic weaknesses - particularly with WTO membership imminent. Economic development is spread very unevenly: many areas were in recession last year, with unemployment reaching 30% in some towns. Farmers were most vulnerable: rural incomes grew just 2.5% so far in 2000, compared to 8.4% urban income growth. “Government officials worried that a further slide in economic growth could fuel political unrest”. Reuters,”China WTO Entry Concerns Upstage China-EU Summit”NYT 23 Oct:-reports on a brief Chinese-EU summit during which political issues were overshadowed by the many serious(or delaying)problems the Chinese side has raised to folding its many bilateral agreements into a single multilateral treaty that completes its entry into the WTO. While both sides stressed their“commitment to overcoming snags[there was]scant evidence of a breakthrough in the impasse”. Much results from EU demands for more“clear and predictable”Chinese regulations, which Beijing sees as attempts to extract new commitments. [The Economist(7 Oct op.cit.) suspects that Beijing’s fear of violent anti-government reaction to global imports resulting from WTO membership, makes it deliberately delay agreement.] Similar reasons of self-preservation imply that Beijing, while again promising the EU imminent action, will delay ratifying the UN Human Rights Conventions - particularly that on civil/political rights. AP,”Separatist Group Blames Police for Death of Leader”NYT 24 Oct:-”Police have tortured to death an organizer of one of the largest uprisings against Chinese rule in China’s restive Muslim northwest, according to a separatist group”. The East Turkistan Information Center, one of many overseas groups seeking independence for Xinjiang and its dominant ethnic group, the Uighurs, reported the death of Abduhelil Abdulmejit, one of the“chief organizers”of a major independence protest in Yining, near China’s border with Kazakstan, in Feb 97. Exile groups claim at least 100 died; Amnesty International(AI)estimated 3,000-5,000 were arrested. AI also reports Abdulmejit organized social gatherings started by Uighurs in 1994 ”to combat widespread drug abuse and social problems among youths[but] authorities banned the gatherings in 1995, apparently fearing their growing strength”. AI calls this case typical; Beijing admits unauthorized torture takes place. Reuters,”EU Deal Brings China Closer to WTO Entry”NYT 27 Oct:-EU has resolved WTO disagreements with China over European access to insurance and retail markets through talks during and after their Beijing summit(Reuters 23 Oct). Licences for insurance companies will be granted even before accession is completed, from which time European supermarkets, department stores, etc will also be able operate freely in China. Last”joint-venture”restrictions on car distributors in China will be lifted within 5 years of accession. Both sides will now concentrate on resolving the remaining issues quickly, with accession early next year reasonable. As China is vulnerable in all the areas, the economic(and political?)moment of truth approaches. Economist 28 Oct:”China’s Dynastic Struggles”(12-3);“China: Ready For the Fourth Generation”(39-40):-this Editorial/article see the traumas of handing leadership to a new generation, and absorbing WTO obligations, as not only demanding reform, but creating serious social and political challenges: unemployment, uncontrollable migration to the cities, a new social safety net. “[T]his transition may be...fragile... because China has been changing faster than the management methods of the...functionaries that run the place. As signs of restiveness increase - farmers rioting...over arbitrary taxes, workers taking to the streets...to protest at unpaid wages and factory closures - it would take a braver leadership than China yet has to experiment with the sorts of sharply devolutionary political reforms that the economy also needs, but that will loosen further the party’s grip on power. Meanwhile, separatist sentiment in China’s Islamic borderlands is met with the sort of grip-tightening that provokes more separatist violence...[L]eaders have recently been tempted to turn to an ideology with more potent appeal[than Marxism]: a chip-on-shoulder nationalism. [Yet] the last thing China needs...is a stability-rocking crisis over Taiwan or anything else”(12-3). The article sees five possible sources of challenge to the regime: (1) The party’s continuing inability to show it is really serious about rooting out corruption within its ranks. (2) A severe economic downturn as painful reforms after WTO membership start to bite. (3) Growing rural unrest over local corruption and arbitrary taxation by local officials. (4) The rise of organizing forces that bring together disparate sites of dissatisfaction, in both countryside and cities. (5) The rise of a more reform-minded, western-educated, cosmopolitan generation that challenges authoritarian assumptions. Reuters,”China Delays Ratifying UN Rights Pact”31 Oct:-maybe reflecting a sense of insecurity, and concern at recent domestic unrest, Chinese leaders decided not to ratify the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights during the Oct session of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress(NPC), China’s legislature. Although this Covenant came into effect in 1976, and is separate from the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights at the insistence of the communist states (who knew their strong suit),China did not sign the 1966 pair until 1997 and 1998 respectively. And Beijing still says”state sovereignty takes precedence over human rights and collective rights trump individual liberties. It also maintains that providing food, clothing and shelter for 1.3 billion people is more important than granting political rights”. However, the”main contents of the covenants are consistent with the laws and policies and practice of China”, even if “a number of [NPC] members maintain that...some questions remain to be further studied”(i.e. for possible exemptions). Ratifying the civil rights convention is not expected for at least a year. Smith,”Beijing Tries to Lift Economic Standards”NYT 07 Nov:-one of the most serious threats facing the Chinese regime is maintaining national unity - a unity most threatened among the many ethnic minorities found in the vast western area of China. It includes 12 provinces/autonomous regions, particularly Xinjiang and Tibet where militant independence movements already exist. The region, about the size of Australia, consists mainly of huge deserts, dense mountains and scattered cities, and yet has a population of 280 million. Climate, topography, isolation mean that most people are very poor, with incomes a third of those along the coast, and in some provinces only 12%. Beijing, having watched the recent sudden break-up of the USSR, is hoping to greatly improve the region’s economy”before the disparity between living standards there and in the wealthier east, dominated by Han Chinese,” fortifies existing desires for independence. The next 5-year plan draft sees development of the west an”historic task”that must make“breakthroughs in building the infrastructure and preserving the...environment”in the next 5-10 years. Both FDI and ODA are being sought to finance a long list of projects including a $14b 2,500-mile natural gas pipeline from Xinjiang to Shanghai. Beijing will spend $4b in the west this year on infrastructure alone, since that is the greatest challenge. Yet even if done well, it”will take several generations”to close the east-west economic -and hence political- gap. AP,”China Hands Out Death Sentences”NYT 08 Nov; and Rosenthal,”China Sentences 11 Officials to Death in Smuggling Scandal”NYT 09 Nov:-[similar articles summarized together] China’s biggest corruption scandal produced 84 convictions: 11 people were sentenced to death (including police and government officials), 3 received suspended death sentences, 12 were sentenced to life imprisonment, and 58 received lesser terms. The multi-billion-dollar“Yuanhua Group”smuggling ring, centered in the port of Xiamen (opposite Taiwan), is presumably wiped out and, more important, the government has made examples of lower ranked officials “to convince a disgusted public that it is tackling pervasive corruption” - while shielding leaders at the top. The ring reportedly smuggled cars, oil, cigarettes and other goods worth $6.4b, and also cost the Chinese treasury $3.6b in lost import duties. Few Chinese believe the Yuanhua case is more than a particularly severe example of a nationwide problem. An expert on customs issues estimates 20% of Chinese customs officials accept bribes of some sort; another suspects the percentage might be far higher in certain parts of the country. A former customs official noted that they sometimes feel more allegiance to the local government than to Beijing. In any event, ”[t]housands of officials have been punished in years-long anti-graft campaigns. This year, courts have put to death a deputy-provincial governor and a deputy chairman of China’s legislature - the highest-level officials executed for corruption since the party came to power 51 years ago”. Informed observers agree the government is dead serious in tackling corruption, but Party-only law enforcement and a system where graft is“part of the culture”for low-paid officials, means it will be years if not decades before China can stamp out corruption. AP,”Blame Given in Chinese Mine Accident”NYT 13 Nov:-further to AP 17 Oct article on the huge death toll in Chinese mines, this reports the last body had recently been retrieved from the site of a terrible mine explosion on 27 Sep, bringing the total fatalities to 162.”China’s mines are the deadliest in the world, bedevilled by poor safety equipment and lax enforcement of safety laws. Many miners are unemployed farmers with no mine training. In the first 10 months of the year, 4,883 people were killed in coal mines...according to [understated] official figures”. In this case, the accident source was a power cut to a ventilator [frequent] causing a buildup of gas, which ignited when a miner dismantled a light. Excessive overtime to maintain profitability(shifts of over 12 hours)also contributed to the high loss of life. Economist 18 Nov,”China: Misery Behind the Migration”(52-4);”China’s Schools for Non-Children”(54):-two closely-related items on problems faced by rural populations, even if they migrate to the rich coastal cities. Apart from local poverty, many rural communities have faced the end of/reductions in government-provided social facilities and non-payment of social support, e.g. for schooling. In addition,”farmers are racked by taxes”, some set, and all collected, by local bureaucrats who benefit by inflating(e.g. tripling)local income statistics on which taxes are based. “The burden of taxation, then, falls disproportionately on China’s very poorest”. This explains the huge migration, including children, to find work elsewhere - and a resulting void in census figures. Hence also the growing number and violence of rural protests against taxation. And Beijing finds both taxes and migration beyond its capacity to control. Results are mixed. Urban target areas (Beijing alone has 2m migrants)may provide(unpleasant)jobs for most arrivals, but schools for their children are harder to find. State schools charge exorbitant fees and private schools are even pricier. Fortunately, non-profit private schools for migrants(200 around Beijing)are starting to meet this urgent need. Rosenthal, “Defiant Chinese Muslims Keep Their Own Time”NYT 19 Nov:-further to 24 Oct AP, this item from Kashgar, Xinjiang, Western China, describes the worsening political/economic/ethnic status of the 7m Muslim, Turkic speaking Uighurs as their once-insulated society becomes dominated by Han Chinese migrants, and they struggle for employment in the changing economy.(For geographic reasons they refuse to live by Beijing time as decreed for all of China.) Most Uighurs, ”defiant and increasingly disaffected,[find almost everything] suffused with questions of power, control and ethnic divisions”. Yet their reactions are rarely violent, but take the form of many little acts of personal challenge”like wearing Islamic dress, refusing to speak Chinese or setting your watch to local time”. Since Uighurs are also wary of the Islamic militancy in nearby Central Asia, their deepening sense of marginalization/alienation is partly reflected in a serious urban drug problem. Perhaps most ominous, however, is the wide and growing isolation between the two cultures and races. CHINA-UNHCR MEMO OF UNDERSTANDING: Reuters,”UN Rights Chief Signs`Milestone’China Pact”NYT 20 Nov; AP,”United Nations, China Sign Human-Rights Pact”NYT 20 Nov; AP,”U.N., China Debate Human Rights”NYT 21 Nov; Economist, 25 Nov,”China’s Human Rights Promises: Some Milestone”(43); Eckholm, ”China’s Rights Stand: Progress or an Irrelevance?”NYT 27 Nov:-these articles all relate directly to Reuters 31 Oct item on China’s real attitude towards the two UN human rights“Covenants” which it has signed but has not ratified. On 20 Nov, Mary Robinson, the UNHCHR, and Chinese Vice FM Wang Guangya signed an MOU(after two years of“talks”)that Wang said would help China“know more about”the practices of“other countries” under the two human rights conventions. UNHCHR claimed it was a”very significant move”, would ”build a stronger culture of human rights”and bring China closer to international norms through programs in human rights education, police/judicial training, and UN in situ investigation of forced labor”reform”camps and alleged torture. She clearly saw it as committing China to comply with the Conventions and review some current rights abuses. Next day, however, Politburo member Li Tieying more bluntly insisted human rights are“relative” and determined by the special conditions of each country and ethnicity [Tibet?]. President Jiang also told Robinson China has“its own way of promoting and protecting human rights”. While UNHCHR raised all the usual criticisms of China’s”own way”, she did not appear to make headway. Eckholm surmises Beijing is confident”China can navigate diplomatic dialogues and possibly loophole-ridden treaties”. Impact of“surging economic and social change and the spread of the Internet”and middle class will be“vastly stronger forces for political change”than an MOU. Worse, they may actually produce a tightening of screws. The Economist agreed that while Robinson duly stressed the need for Beijing to drop its“moral relativism” and really cooperate with UN observers, this is unlikely to happen soon. Yet the Chinese government is being hurt domestically and internationally by”the sort of gross excesses routinely committed by local police and officials”, and the UN can help in practical ways Beijing’s genuine attempts to curb this. By simply signing a human rights agreement, even if it is barely implemented, Beijing also helps/hopes to soften its authoritarian image and increase its global acceptance as a“normal”state worthy of joining multilateral organizations(such as WTO), or helping form free trade pacts. Economist 25 Nov,”China: Running Out of Steam”(43):-this article discusses an urgent problem being forced on Beijing by its wish/need to become a part of the modern (interdependent) world. Its”new obsession”: to ensure energy supplies to drive its multiplying power stations/vehicles, is first complicated by unpredictable oil prices and only-too-predictable pollution crises. These must in many ways influence China’s global relationships. Then, energy demand (growing 3.5% a year)will double over the next 20 years - and 80% is now met by coal, making China’s CO₂ emissions second only to those of the US - and 14% of world total. With the globe’s most polluted cities, air pollution kills 200,000 a year. Beijing claims it will close 18,000 mines and install cleaner coal technologies... A net oil importer only since 1993, China has both inefficient refineries and depleted fields. Yet oil consumption will rise 80% by 2010, and one-third refined domestically is already imported - if from carefully diversified sources. Gas consumption(only 2.5% of energy use)will rise fast, since China apparently has “vast” reserves -much in Xinjiang- and plans for pipelines to Shanghai. However, pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan are also needed, plus LNG terminals along the coast. Through its massive energy needs alone, then, China’s security will increasingly be related to global stability. Rosenthal,”Blinded by Poverty: The Dark Side of Economic Reform”NYT 21 Nov:-the effect of China’s economic reforms on medical services. “Twenty years ago, China boasted the broadest public health system in the world, offering free(if basic) health care to all. But the country’s shift to a market economy has upended that balance, allowing entry of more advanced medical techniques but also making even simple procedures widely unaffordable...Today, medical care in China is almost entirely a matter of cash from individual patients, and there is no public health insurance for the poor...The [WHO] now rates China last among developing countries in terms of equal access to medical care [where] treatment is often an economic rather than a medical decision”. Article describes how(partly foreign)charities enabled cataract surgery to restore the sight of 1.1m poor in four years. Reuters”China Steps Up Bid to Reach 40 Trapped Miners”NYT 30 Nov:-item in effect admits no hope remains for 40 miners trapped in an Inner Mongolian coal mine for six days. A gas explosion had already killed 11 and injured 23. (AP 13 Nov/Economist 25 Nov also report on China’s horrendous coal problem.) Cause of this explosion was not known, but a National Coal Safety Board ostensibly supervises China’s 40,000(sic)mines, and”improved safety standards”had closed down 18,000 illegal/unregulated mines in Jan-Sep 00 alone. AP,”Death Toll Up in China Mine Blast”NYT 20 Dec:-reports that the death toll from the Inner Mongolian coal mine explosion was confirmed at 51(i.e. 11 in initial explosion and 40 trapped underground by it). Cause of the blast was determined to have been a pocket of explosive gas which was not allowed to escape because, like many Chinese mines, there was inadequate ventilation. In the first 10 months of year, 4,883 people were killed in mines, so since Nov new regulations require routine safety inspections and proper training for miners. Reuters”Chinese Mall Collapses, Scores Believed Dead”NYT 02 Dec;”China Detains Four After Fatal Mall Collapse”NYT 03 Dec:-construction is another industry where lack of standards/controls, plus corruption, take a high toll in lives in spite of new attempts by Beijing to impose higher standards. PM Zhu has angrily described the shoddy work plaguing the building industry as“bean curd”(tofu)construction. In this case, more than a hundred people may have died when an illegally-built mall, built on obviously dangerous ground, suddenly and totally collapsed when two storeys were being illegally added over a foundation built for one - with no shopping constraints/ warnings. In 1999 a Party official was sentenced to death for taking bribes and dereliction of duty after a bridge collapse killed 40 people; only a week before the mall tragedy another bridge collapse injured 19, five seriously. Such regular but avoidable accidents are of course not all reported. Eckholm,”China’s Top Justice Official Ousted, Some Say for Corruption”NYT 02 Dec; Reuters, ”Chinese Justice Minister Was Removed From Office”NYT 04 Dec; Economist, 09 Dec“China: Justice For All?”(47-8):-articles all relate to the sudden departure of Gao Changli, Chinese Minister of Justice, from his job, together with a variety of official and private explanations and some very interesting speculation. What is clear is that Gao was actively involved in the anti-corruption campaign which has already caught some big fish(see previous items). While the Justice Ministry has no direct power over prosecutors and courts -”notoriously susceptible to political control and corruption” (Eckholm),Gao had reportedly been overseeing recent reforms to the legal system, and had personally taken a leading role in promoting the rule of law. “What remains unclear...is whether[he]was himself fingered in China’s escalating war against official corruption, or brought down by his political enemies...Either way, justice is probably the loser”(Economist). Eckholm,”Chinese Find Power Abuse Isn’t Limited to the Cities”NYT 03 Dec:-”[T]he abuse of power by rural officials[is]increasingly reported in the national press, a sign of concern among Beijing leaders about lawlessness in the countryside even as they struggle...against corruption in the cities. No one knows how many lawless fiefdoms are operating across China. But since Communist Party bosses usually have firm control over local police, courts and press, only a fraction of crimes may be reported”. The press is publicly encouraged to expose corruption, but since Beijing is also obsessed about stability, the Party fears a free press and reports are vetted. In addition, because of the enormous local power of some of those abusing it, many people do not dare to speak up. The article describes two amazing, but perhaps not extraordinary, cases of local tyranny and greed. Eckholm,”Two Pro-Democracy Leaders in China Sentenced to Prison”NYT 06 Dec:-China’s Communist leaders are very determined“to stamp out all remnants of political opposition as they prepare for the risky opening of China’s economy to global competition”by joining the WTO(next item). The article reports that two years after a crackdown began on a short-lived pro-democracy party, two more leaders have been sent to prison, bringing the total to 30. In early 1998, hundreds joined to promote a new, unregistered democratic party. This rapidly expanded since at first it seemed acceptable to the authorities. In late 1998, however, three major leaders were arrested and given heavy prison terms, and dozens of organizers were picked up later. Reuters,”China Envoy Upbeat on WTO, But Talks to Drag On”NYT 08 Dec:-the end of China’s 14-year Long March into GATT/WTO may be in sight - but with some differences over the ETA. Chinese negotiator Long Yongtu said he hoped and believed entry could take place before the end of the Clinton administration on 20 Jan. Other negotiators, however, doubted the pact would be completed”until at least several months into the new year”. The last major obstacles relate to Chinese agricultural support and industrial subsidies. The only major bilateral pacts to conclude are those with Mexico and Panama. Since Beijing knows it may be gambling China’s economic/political stability on the effects of WTO entry, it plays its hand very carefully. AP,”China Destroys Hundreds of Churches”NYT 13 Dec:-”religious revival has swept China in recent years. Lively underground church movements service Catholics and Protestants, who refuse to worship under state control. Unorthodox groups influenced by Buddhism, Christianity and other faiths also have sprung up”. Within this context, officials have announced that“China is demolishing hundreds of churches and temples as it cracks down on unauthorized worship in a southeastern coastal area known for its flourishing religious life”. One spokesman announced:”In rural areas, superstition is still very rampant. The government’s goal is to demolish those illegal buildings as well as correct those decadent rural lifestyles”. A local official said 450 buildings were destroyed, but human rights groups claim the actual number dynamited was 1,200. Reuters,”Rights Group: Police Kill Five Muslims in China”NYT 14 Dec:-a Hong Kong-based human rights group claims,”Chinese police shot and killed five Muslims of the Hui ethnic minority in a conflict involving some 300 Muslims in the northeastern province of Shandong”. Officials admitted 40 others were injured. A demonstration resulted from a Han ethnic majority-run shop claiming to sell pork to the unclean. Eckholm, “Silk Workers in Standoff With Beijing Over Union”NYT 15 Dec; AP,”Wife: China Union Leader Drugged” NYT 17 Dec:-”China allows only government-approved unions overseen by the ruling Communist Party, and authorities have jailed or exiled labor activists who sought to form independent unions. Activists say official unions are unresponsive to appeals from workers and fail to protect worker rights”(AP). Eckholm reports confrontation between workers and state-owned silk factory unable to pay regular pensions or allowances to those laid off, at least partly because of management corruption. Workers, led by Cao Maobin, voiced standard complaints about useless official union, and threatened to form their own. Beijing, though fearful of independent unions, did not respond to workers’ complaints. Harassment and threats against Cao and his family increased when he and others began organizing a union. When leader spoke to press, the police seized and put him in a mental hospital though his wife and friends say he remains perfectly sane. He has been forced to take unidentified drugs. AP,”China: Tibet Rail Ready in 2007"NYT 15 Dec; Economist 16 Dec,”Tibet: China’s Contacts With the Dalai Lama”(45-6);Reuters, ”Rights Group Knocks China-Tibet Railway Plan”NYT 23 Dec:-all articles imply that Beijing is increasingly concerned about its ability to control Tibet. AP reports China has finished planning the first railway to Tibet,”a link that would knit the restive Himalayan region tighter with the rest of China”. So far, Tibet has been accessible from China proper only by tortuous road or air. Now, engineers having finally ”overcome” permafrost and earthquake construction problems, a track will connect Lhasa directly to the Chinese rail network in 5-7 years. The project will “boost the economy,...increase tourism and promote unity”. Meanwhile, various bans on Tibetan religious activities have been relaxed, and Beijing has admitted to“channels of contact”with the Dalai Lama. Moreover the Dalai’s life and loyal following may well outlast peace in China, so“contacts” with him”could be essential in helping China maintain stability”. He has astutely even offered to accept“a high level of autonomy” for Tibet and thus“help reduce the danger of instability”. Other articles indicate China is anxious to settle its border disputes with India. Reuters reports the reaction of the London-based Tibet Information Network is that:”The railway will enable the authorities to move army and security forces more easily for the purposes both of border defense and of internal control, and will be a further step toward the integration of Tibetan areas into the Chinese state as a means of achieving stability”. Critically, it would lead to increased Han migration into areas mainly populated by ethnic Tibetans. State media add it would be one of China’s most ambitious efforts to open the resource-rich Himalayan region to economic development(Tibet is China’s only province-level region without a railway network). While some Tibetans would gain better access to markets, Han immigrants, the Chinese state, and mining companies would be the main beneficiaries. Of four possible routes, one via Yunnan would open up previously inaccessible areas for farming/tourism. AP,”China Hopes to Cap Population”NYT 19 Dec:-while article mainly concentrates on demographics and is summarized under POPULATION, it is relevant here that a new government policy paper states China hopes to stabilize its population at 1.6 billion by mid-century by persuading(sic)women to have fewer children and bear them later in life. Greater education, and higher social and economic status for women, will work to this end, but a one-child policy“must remain in place for the foreseeable future to keep China’s population from spiraling out of control”. Reuters,”Major Chinese Lake Disappearing in Water Crisis”NYT 20 Dec:-previous articles (Economist 14 Oct; Eckholm 17 Oct)already stressed China’s increasingly serious water problems, particularly in the north. This item claims the largest lake in northern China”appears doomed to dry out early next year, parched by lack of rainfall and reckless use of water by factories and farmers..The threat to Baiyangdian Lake ...has highlighted a water crisis in China so severe it threatens the country’s economic development and social stability. Hundreds of thousands...have grown dependent...for drinking, fishing [,industry]and agriculture [on]the 360-sq kilometer lake[which]is unlikely to survive without a massive canal project to begin next year that will divert water from the mighty Yangtze[of]central China”. A water shortage is now affecting “vast”areas of China, and civil unrest over water issues has broken out”several times in recent months”. A deadly riot took place when officials cut off water supplies from a reservoir used for irrigation; six were killed when a channel was blown up to prevent diversion of water to a new power station. An official in the north admitted: ”We place all our hopes in the south-to-north water transfer project”. Eckholm,”China Widening Crackdown on Corruption”NYT 23 Dec; Reuters,”Top Chinese Mayor Suspected of Gangster Links”NYT 23 Dec; Reuters,”China Officials Face Tougher Anti-Corruption Moves”NYT 26 Dec:-as the anti-corruption campaign turns up more and more serious crimes, those incriminated get closer to the very pinnacles of power. “The secrecy surrounding[some cases]reflects the growing quandary facing Communist Party leaders: To regain fading public faith, they are making a show of decisive action against corruption. But the scandals have become distressingly widespread, and it appears that some suspect higher officials have been left alone, while other cases are never reported in the official media...In one of China’s most politically sensitive corruption cases, the former chief of military intelligence has reportedly been sentenced to 15 years in prison for embezzlement and bribery”. Moreover, he was apparently allied with the head of the huge smuggling ring described in AP 08 Nov; Rosenthal 09 Nov, and used his position to embezzle millions of dollars from military-run corporations(Eckholm). Meanwhile senior officers in the major city of Shenyang were under investigation and forced to resign for their dealings with a criminal syndicate, and the mayor also resigned for suspected involvement with triad gangs and gambling(Reuters 23 Dec). In a year-end assessment of the anti-corruption campaign(Reuters 26 Dec), Wei Jianxing, Secretary of the CP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, concluded China had made“new and marked progress”in 2000. Officials have punished 130,000 people at all(sic)levels and seized 5,154 cars and 4,465 computers, either paid for by public funds or unlawfully obtained. More sensational hauls are expected, and“China will continue to crack down hard on major cases...in the coming year”(Wei). Anti-corruption laws have also been further tightened. Senior ministerial/provincial level officials must list their family property earnings, ”leading”officials are prohibited from accepting cash or other benefits from individuals or work units, or financial sponsorship or invitations for overseas visits from domestic or overseas enterprises, and anti-nepotism rules will be extended to officials at the county level. Economist 23 Dec,”China’s Great Leap West: Go West, Young Han”(45-6):-“[The] campaign to develop the vast but poor western regions of China promises to become the chief domestic obsession of the country’s rulers over the coming years”(cf Smith 07 Nov). They include nine provinces, over half China’s territory and a quarter of its population, but well over half its poorest 80m. Claims the campaign received $13b in 2000 and will get at least as much in future are ”implausible”; little emphasis is put on ending the dominant and inefficient state firms, or on poverty-reducing measures like education, health and local roads. Concentration is on vast infrastructure projects: rebuilding the Lhasa-Beijing road; 150,000km of new highways; a railway to Lhasa(AP 15 Dec)and perhaps Yunnan-Singapore;, a $15b gas pipeline Xinjiang-Beijing; hydro-power, metals, coal and oil development. It is unclear how local communities will benefit, but it all makes sense if the aims are to exploit resources, speed security access and ease Han immigration. The west has the highest proportion of non-Han minorities and China’s least-secure borders. Economist 23 Dec,”Kidnapping in China”(53-4):-very sad report, built on the story of a couple that lost its only son. ”It is impossible to know how much kidnapping is going on in China; the number of rescues is only the tip of the problem. But certainly the numbers have risen, both of children, mostly boys, and of young women, mostly for wives. As well as the 13,000[children rescued in a crackdown],the authorities [claim] to have found 110,000 women, most of whom had been sold as brides, though many will have been put to domestic service or prostitution”. Whether they had ever stopped under CCP rule, ”prostitution, concubinage, bride-selling, slavery and drug addiction...are all back now” in one form or another. Reasons: resurgence of old social habits(in addition to the above evils, it is a traditional Chinese right to have a son),plus new economic incentives(poor parents-particularly migrants-”often”sell children; kidnapped victims bring good money: up to $1000 for teenage brides and around $3000 for little boys). Officials now show recognition of human rights. Eckholm,”In China’s Heartland, the Fertile Fields Lie Fallow”NYT 24 Dec:-In Anhui and nearby regions, known as the granary of China for the rich soil, 5-15% of scarce cropland has recently gone unused, and the practice is spreading. “Abandonment of some of China’s most fertile land reflects the economic difficulty that has engulfed central China in recent years, trapping millions of farm families and leading to frequent reports of rural unrest”. China has surplus grain, and is phasing out farm subsidies in preparation for global competition when it joins the WTO. Where(as in Anhui)farmers continue to concentrate on rice cultivation, their equal-sized -and hence tiny- plots are inefficient and costly, and the returns not enough to pay local taxes. Yet families may not sell their land or even give it away; nor can they move permanently to cities to get new jobs. Now that the farms do not pay, the young people have no choice but to(illegally)seek menial jobs in cities, in part to help meet farm taxes at home. Short of labor, and with no motivation to produce beyond subsistence, those remaining let many of China’s most fertile fields lie fallow. Local taxes continue, however, since services(schools, roads, etc. - which Beijing demands but does not fund)must be financed by such taxes. Where there are many land-use options(including small industry)the situation is far better; but Anhui’s stalemate reflects broad, politically-sensitive issues going far beyond farms. Solutions must raise productivity, perhaps by encouraging higher-value crops than rice, by creation of non-farm jobs nearby, or by granting land-ownership rights/allowing cooperatives, so permitting land consolidation/ mechanization. AP,”China, U.S. Trade May Hit New High”NYT 24 Dec:-bilateral trade should reach a record $73.5b in 2000, a 23.4% increase Jan-Oct over 1999. In that period, US imported $43.4b(up 27%); China imported $18b(up 15%). In Oct alone, US bilateral deficit was $9.1b, the biggest US deficit ever with a single country. Total US investments in China, $60b, make it the largest foreign investor(Hong Kong/Taiwan investment not counted). Significantly, this situation(just?)pre-dates the huge bilateral impact of China joining the WTO. Reuters, ”China, Vietnam Settle Tonkin Gulf Border Dispute”NYT 25 Dec:-as one more sign of an apparent Chinese trend to improve relations with its neighbours(possibly in connection with WTO membership, pushing an Asian FTA, saving defense costs, or preparing for internal disorder - see items above), the presidents of China and Vietnam have signed an agreement settling a long-standing border dispute in the Tonkin Gulf. After years of negotiations and the settlement of the land border in 1999, their EEZs and territorial waters were demarcated, and fisheries allocated. The official Vietnamese media stressed the agreements’ epochal role, undoubtedly forgetting the still-outstanding and multi-claimed competition for the Spratley and Paracel Islands. Further to Reuters items of 02 and 03 Dec regarding the fatal fire at a mall, Reuters,”Suspects Held in Deadly Central China Fire”NYT 27 Dec; AP,”China Fire Victims’ Kin Protest”NYT 28 Dec:-the first states that NCNA had reported only that police had”made arrests”in connection with the fire, that the cause of the fire was“under investigation”, and that the dance hall(where most of the 309 deaths took place)had been”operating illegally”. Other sources reported that the building had failed 18 fire safety tests, had already been ordered closed, and that the exits from the disco were blocked by boxes. Too late, the Ministry of Public Security has now released (another) ”urgent”circular ordering all discos/dance halls operating without a licence or fire control system to be closed immediately, and that hotels, shopping malls, hospitals and schools should be checked. Because of local corruption, such warnings in the past have had little effect. AP also reports that more than 200 relatives of those killed had marched and blocked traffic in an“angry protest”against callous official reactions. Apparently the police had detained 12 people, including managers of the supermarket chain that owned the building, and four welders who probably caused the fire, were working illegally, and who fled without warning others. Smith,”China at Gate of Profound Shift”NYT 28 Dec:-this report on the development of private enterprise and finance in China emphasises that new rules allowing privately-owned companies access to Chinese capital markets“could ultimately reshape China’s economic landscape”because private companies now have a chance at becoming the main engine of the economy. The political implications are enormous since - as private businesses grow in number and wealth - their owners will become a powerful constituency; the rule of law and access to finance will make them independent from political power. The existing system, geared to helping state-owned enterprises (SOEs)survive, “encourages bribery and crams the markets with low-quality state companies”; SOEs get almost all the money raised on Chinese markets, so entrepreneurs remain politically isolated and financially hobbled. As China’s securities firms decide which concerns will go public,”in 10 years private companies will dominate the stock market”. Beijing accepts that, within WTO rules, a growing private sector is the best chance for saving China’s economy from foreign domination, and the quickest solution to rising unemployment. AP"China Says Court Abuses Continue” NYT 28 Dec 2000:-Chairman of the Committee for Internal and Judicial Affairs of the National People’s Congress, claims that, three years after passage of a law to protect defendants’ rights, forced confessions are still widespread, and judges and prosecutors illegally restrict the work of defense attorneys. Moreover, courts continue to hold defendants longer than allowed, refuse them access to defense lawyers, and reject “reasonable petitions”. The problems are blamed on“lack of knowledge”by law enforcers, and call for better education and supervision, since they are causing“terrible social consequences”. Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 03):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] the best political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints, tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - then the problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field' between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting the poor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberal rather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles show where and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White' Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy. Elizabeth Economy“Don’t Break the Engagement: Staying the Course on China”Foreign Affairs Vol.83/No.3 (May/Jun 04):-Director of Asia Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, author of The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future. Aims in 04 of Bush administration and US Congress might relate to strongly criticizing Chinese politics/trade again. But“US can best help foster reform in China by being sensitive to both opportunities/limitations of its influence”. While argument structurally amplified, vast bulk of major article to describe in detail big trends, explain activities of groups/policies, analyse leaders’ and Communist Party’s hopes/fears: (1)“For China’s leaders, time now of essence. [C]rime/ government corruption-spread, social welfare...deteriorated, and public alienation/distrust that resulted now threaten CCP’s legitimacy”. (2)“[P]olitical reform resolutely moving forward... To give people greater stake in political process, [leaders] increasing transparency in government practices, broadening CCP’s membership base, experimenting electoral reform”. (3)Since 78, number of lawyers in China skyrocketed from 2,000 to 120,000. [L]egal reform has assumed other, urgent purposes: to attack corruption, quiet social unrest and, in process, enhance legitimacy of China’s leadership”. (4)“Media... become critical players in Beijing’s anticorruption campaign and its effort to be more transparent. [2,000 daily newspapers, 900 TV stations serve 90m cable users] Internet been especially potent catalyst for political discussion[79.5m users]. [H]elped bring wide public attention to debates over legal system/individual rights. (5)Rather than develop comprehensive/universal [social welfare] system to replace one once provided by state-owned enterprises/ collective agriculture, China’s leaders encouraged individuals/NGOs, churches, and women’s associations”. (6)“Although China’s leaders seem clearly resolved to continue down reform path, much about strategy remains uncertain [1-party system]. [I]ntellectuals also divided over most desirable/likely course for reform". Jared Diamond Collapse: How Societies Choose To Fail or Succeed(New York: Viking Penguin 05):-globally relevant/influential 600-page heir to Guns, Germs.... Describes how and why societies have survived or collapsed on basis of five factors: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbours, friendly trade partners, and society's responses to its environmental problems. Essence of entire text is well-outlined in the Prologue, so if your time or preliminary dedication are brief, at least read that. You could then read any of 16 chapters individually, although your hunger or concerns may become overwhelming. Parts/Chapters titles as follows: Part One: Modern Montana: (1)Under Montana's Big Sky; Part Two: Past Societies: (2)Twilight at Easter; (3)The Last People Alive: Pitcairn and Henderson Islands; (4)The Ancient Ones: The Anasazi and Their Neighbours; (5)The Maya Collapses; (6)The Viking Prelude and Fugues; (7)Norse Greenland's Flowering; (8)Norse Greenland's End; (9)Opposite Paths to Success; Part Three: Modern Societies: (10)Malthus in Africa: Rwanda's Genocide; (11)One Island, Two Peoples, Two Histories: The Dominican Republic and Haiti; (12)China, Lurching Giant; (13)'Mining' Australia; Part Four: Practical Lessons: (14)Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? (15)Big Businesses and the Environment: Different Conditions, Different Outcomes; (16)The World as a Polder: What Does It All Mean to Us Today? Final five pages of text are entitled Reasons for Hope, followed by Further Readings. The Economist 01 Oct 05"Protests in China: The Cauldron Boils"(38-9):-"Chinese government getting increasingly twitchy about... rapid growth in number/scale of public protests. [F]ace serious instability? Probably not, for now at least. But in longer term, reasons to worry... Almost always ['mass incidents'] sparked by local grievances, rather than antipathy to party's rule... [Officially,] some 74,000 protests in [04], involving more than 3.7m. [D]emonstrations involving more than 100 occurred in 337 cities and 1,955 counties in 10 months[of 04. P]olice forces merging existing anti-riot and counter-terrorist units into new 'special police'... In some ways, unrest makes China look much more like normal developing country than rigidly controlled system it was until early 90s. Increasingly common to encounter small-scale protests in Chinese cities that only few years ago would have horrified order-obsessed cadres. [O]fficials often say greater social unrest normal in developing countries with per capita GDP between $1,000 and $3,000... Party's dilemma: much of unrest product of rapid economic growth, so keen to maintain. [E]xpansion of cities has fuelled clashes with peasants whose land needed for construction. Some argue these mostly isolated protests, if handled sensitively, could help China maintain overall stability by providing people with way of venting frustrations. But [also said:] unrest is sign China lacks channels for people to air discontent in more orderly fashion. Widespread corruption and increasingly conspicuous wealth fuel contempt for officialdom that can easily erupt into...class-based rioting. [S]hould economy falter, urban China could be faced with twin dangers of angry middle class saddled with big mortgage commitments/ declining property prices,... as well as big increase in unemployed... Widespread middle-class discontent, combined with blue-collar dissatisfaction, would be much bigger threat to stability than China now faces". Economist 15 Oct 05"China's Communist Party Plenum: Five More Years"(45):-"When is a program not a plan?"; "Protest in China: Democracy Chinese-Style"(45-6):-"Discord, even in the prosperous south"; "China in Space: Per Obscura Ad Astra"(46):-"China's secretive space program alarms Japan".

Next item(drafted Oct 06),supported by varied Ottawans, is listed often as very broad issues are involved.

Christopher Spencer REASONS WHY ALL SOCIETIES ON EARTH MUST COOPERATE - IN TERMS OF BOTH THEIR WEALTH AND KNOWLEDGE - IN ORDER TO SURVIVE:-Brief paragraphs first identify some genuine and trans-species (but not simply idealistic) physical and emotional human traditions, confrontations, disasters, or prospects that raise globally-relevant threats. These are followed by a few relatively cheap and realistic, but world-wide and trans-human, policies. The challenges reflect the already serious - and often inter-related - concerns of everyone, everywhere: all human beings now face “global” threats in terms of: (a) mobile, unprecedented inter-human violence; (b) widespread, potentially global, mis-health; (c) dangers generated to the earth on which all survive.

(1) All the wealthier societies on the planet now possess grand and growing assets of both physical goods - far beyond essential human needs - and rapidly-expanding scientific/technical/ economic knowledge - enough to create/improve their comfort and health. It now appears possible, and universally profitable in terms of generating the good trade and health of all, to share such quantities of global assets with all who lack them, so all groups could fully address painful and globally-destabilizing needs. Even if competition were the pure motivation of large advanced companies, they would develop globally.

(2) Yet throughout the history of human beings, and contrary to the philosophy of the world’s strongest religions, four social factors have been dominant among the whole species: human groups have been mainly small (families or villages); their members have been grossly ignorant about almost all other groups’ characteristics, strengths and problems; they have exhibited deep and general dislike and often fear towards all other groups; and, above all, have felt no sense of responsibility for them. Violence against, or at least selfishness towards, other groups has been chronic - but is suddenly not beneficial.

(3) Now, for the first time in human history, the entire planet is massively/increasingly interdependent, not simply in terms of ‘globalization’ trade, but also regarding enormous travels/transfers of humans, goods and bacteria between societies. We are also now living in unprecedented planetwide situations where basic global knowledge is both vast and expanding - often via TV/Internet/phones in even isolated villages. All human beings, however rich/poor, educated/formally ignorant, global travellers/physically fixed, are potentially aware of other groups with greater/other power or assets - and/or apparent harm or nonrelationship - in their own societies or another. Any group can feel independent/hurt/frustrated/ opinioned toward another, physically or emotionally. Nature/scale of interdependence: widely unknown.

(4) An unprecedented but expanding global fact is that ills, ranging from the mildly-harmful to the multi-fatal, can now easily be transferred via weapons, explosives, poisons, virus, serious misuse of nature. The deliberate, unknown or accidental transfer of critical action to virtually anywhere else on earth, by land, sea or air - could in future be, deliberately or otherwise, generated or passed by groups or individuals that may or may not wish to inflict some ‘pain’ on others. Victims of such action/accident can be in or from any society at all, and can hurt any type or groups of humans, animals, machines, transport, buildings, towns or key liquids/gases/foods/ medicines/power-sources etc. The effects of deliberate or accidental “spreads” or organized action range from minor diseases to mass murders.

(5) Any group will ultimately be responsible for “using” any of a variety of existing or developable actions against/in any society on earth. Hence an essential way to reduce the world-wide threat - apart from easing sharp and dangerous ill-feelings - must involve help in reducing serious/perceived pain/poverty/ (potential)disease/global misuse. It would also involve obtaining - through cooperative intelligence/law among all regimes everywhere - advance information about relevant threats -since any/all societies may somehow be threatened. But the most defensive and selfishly-beneficial means of easing global threats is for the wealthier/more informed to provide the funds/goods/skills necessary to accelerate equity - by both offering and obtaining relevant knowledge. Richer societies would no longer live safely while ignoring any others’ agonies - nor even suffer from giving assistance. Isolation is no longer an option - anywhere - for any rich and/or traditional society. We must all think, at least minimally, as global citizens; Rüdiger Falksohn“New Reactors Across the Globe: A Nuclear Power Renaissance”Der Spiegel 16 Jan 07:-"With concerns about global warming/energy security on rise, countries world over are taking new look at nuclear energy. Some are building new reactors as fast as they can... Almost 21 years after Chernobyl disaster,.. risks associated with nuclear power largely fading into background. So too questions about disposal of spent nuclear fuel/atomic weapons. Industry, in short, preparing for new boom. Currently 435 atomic reactors generating electricity in 31 countries across globe/fill 6.5% of world's total energy demand/use close to 70,000 tons enriched uranium per year/produce 1/6 total electricity supply - roughly on par with hydropower. [M]ay soon rocket upwards. [Now]29 nuclear power plants under construction/ concrete plans to build another 64/158 under consideration. On other end of equation, only six slowly being shut down in preparation for decommissioning. In response to growing demand, price for uranium increased seven-fold since 2002 and now sells for $72 per pound(454gms). Fact no final storage place exists for highly radioactive waste considered but secondary problem... Main obstacle to construction of nuclear power plants no longer anti-nuclear power lobby, but huge costs of building them. Whereas 1970 brand new reactor cost $400m, plant now runs as much as 10 times higher. In last three decades nuclear power industry received subsidies of about $1b...[Yet] power plant construction companies hoping for renaissance... Lots stand to benefit. Industry celebrating 'strategic shift'/preparing for boom with mergers en vogue... EU Commission president...did not conceal committee's sympathy for atomic power, citing environmental reasons/issues related to securing EU energy supply... India considering building 19 new reactors; China wants to construct at least 63 facilities able to supply 50 giga-watts power ... US talking about building more than 20 new plants;.. providing tax incentives for power plant operators/wants ease process of obtaining required permits... Moscow wants to build about 30 new reactors/sell nuclear technology abroad at discount prices... Fact remains 1.6 billion still do not have access to electricity, while 2.4 billion forced to meet their energy needs with wood, straw or manure"; Economist 10 Mar 07"Property Rights in China: China‛s Next Revolution" (Edit.9); "Briefing: Governing China: Caught Between Right and Left, Town and Country"(23-5):-Editorial highlights: "China has large/flourishing private sector [-] two-thirds of GDP. So one law due to receive National People‛s Congress rubber stamp [is] giving individuals the same legal protection for their property as the state. [Communist Party] decision to enact the law... is a great symbolic victory for economic reform and the rule of law. Clearer/enforceable property rights are essential if China‛s boom is to continue and tensions managed without widespread violence. Every month, thousands of protests by poor farmers outraged at expropriation of their land [Briefing offers more detail]. In cities,.. growing middle class, with wealth in houses [they] want to pass on to their children,.. are anxious... and becoming more assertive. [L]atest law is only one step... out of blind alley of Maoism... In 2004 China [changed its] constitution to enshrine private-poverty rights[, but t]his latest law... will not meet the need to give peasants marketable ownership rights to the land they farm[, free them] from the threat of expropriation[, or resolve] who owns what. [Moreover,] the passage of laws is not the rule of law. [W]ithout accountable executive branch, the necessary reform of the legal system is not going to happen. [T]he party is showing itself somewhat more responsive to public opinion[, but] it still... does best to silence most dissenting voices... No revolution today then... [Marx] would surely see in China a revolution waiting to happen - or perhaps two. One is the bourgeois revolution led by the emerging property-owning middle class that the new law will help. The other is the potential for the simmering resentment in the countryside to boil over, perhaps in frustration at the law‛s shortcomings. [A process] may have started... that will one day change their country completely". Two other informative articles report on the background/passage/effect of the new NPC law on 16 Mar, date of its vast, but not unanimous, passage. Joseph Kahn"China Backs Property Law, Buoying Middle Class" and Associated Press"China OK Protects for Private Property", both New York Times(each 3 pages); Economist 31 Mar 07"China and Its Region: The Great Game in Asia"(Edit.14):-draws heavily on Dominic Ziegler‛s 18-page"Special Report on China and Its Region", which includes these eight major essays(each title/formal summary/ special pages):"Reaching For a Renaissance"(3-6):"So far the world has come to China, but now a rising China is beginning to reach out to the world, starting with Asia, says.. Ziegler. Is that a good thing?";"Smile Diplomacy"(7-10):"Working magic along China‛s periphery";"History Wars" (8):"Whose stele [regional dominant] is it?";"The Export Juggernaut"(10-12):"Good for China, but good for its neighbours too";"Grim Tales"(12-13):"The more growth, the more damage to the environment";"Can We Help You?"(14-15):"How China is wooing a poor neighbour[Cambodia]"; "Here Comes Trouble"(15-16):"China‛s little brother [North Korea] is a big headache";"Heavenly Dynasty"(17-18):"As long as China is not satisfied at home, it cannot be satisfied in the world". Special Report's broad sections on China‛s relations with North Korea and Taiwan are summarized where relevant under Ziegler(op.cit.). Editorial's formal summary: "Why are there so few takers outside China for its self-proclaimed doctrine of 'peaceful rise'?". Highlights:-"China's rapid rise to superpower status generates as much fear as admiration [and] fears most acute in its own neighbourhood. Yet...most remarkable ...may be China's submission to... international constraint, expecially in its own region. It belongs to [and/or attends Asian-Pacific, East Asian, South-East Asian and Russia-Central Asian multilateral organizations/meetings. Moreover,] has shown active good-neighbourliness[:] most of its borders... have been settled[, it is] no longer... flexing naval muscles around [disputed] specks in South China Sea[, and it] has begun to 'consult'... the lower riparian states affected when it dams its rivers... Political tactfulness has been accompanied by unplanned makeover of its economic image... Many in the region saw China's supercharged growth as a threat[, but] these days just as many see it as an opportunity. Yet... firm friends hard to find. Even Russia... is a fair-weather friend - or rather sees... insurance policy. India and Japan... view with suspicion at best and, at worst, paranoia... China‛s chums a scanty list... Myanmar plays China off against India/fellow [ASEAN] members. North Korea(op.cit.) spawned a mouth ulcer last Oct when [it] let off nuclear weapon... Of course, any rapidly emerging big power is unsettling[, and] can display a penchant for unilateralism that undermines its diplomacy. [Its] disregard of global environment[:] an ever-bigger issue in foreign relations. [Its] budget called for another big [18%] increase in military spending... Perception therefore exists that China‛s goodwill extends only so far as its interests not affected... In one crucial respect, it is far from a status quo power: its... claim on Taiwan(op.cit.). This is one big reason... for the military build-up, and could bring war with the real superpower. A much better Taiwan policy is available[, b]ut China has sabotaged its own strategy[: Hong Kong] shows how little China cares to lend substance to its promises of autonomy and democracy. [It] will not yield [to either Hong Kong or Dalai Lama, and] warning against infringing on internal affairs. Why so adamant? Communist Party fears that allowing political freedom on its fringes would loosen its ability to monopolise power in China... Internal reform would not change everything;..but until China embraces openness and pluralism at home, no charm offensive is ever going to set its neighbours‛ minds completely at ease". Other items on China in 31 Mar 07 issue: "Vietnam: Plenty to Smile About"(49-50):-"Ancient animosity with China... has been put aside in the interests of prosperity". "China‛s Dairy Industry: Getting Creamed"(50-1):-"PM visited dairy farm and said his dream was that all Chinese drink half a litre of milk a day. In Moscow, China‛s president encouraged Russians to buy more Chinese milk"; Economist 28 Apr 07"Capital Punishment: Edging Out of Fashion"(69-70):-official summary: "More and more countries have doubts about death penalty". Highlights:"[C]ruelly administered, or botched, executions are not confined to developing countries, or to lands that follow... traditional Islamic punishment... 'At least' 1,591 executions were carried out worldwide 2006, well down on 2005 but 40% higher than 2003. [N]umber of countries that carry out executions... has fallen steadily from 40 a decade ago to just 25 last year. Since 1985, 55 countries have ended the death penalty or, having already limited it to 'extraordinary' crimes,.. have now banned it outright. During the same period, only four reintroduced death penalty[:] Nepal/Philippines have since abolished it again, and in Gambia/Papua New Guinea, no executions. [In all,] 89 countries have abolished death penalty for all crimes, another ten for all but exceptional crimes, and a further 30 are abolitionist in practice. [UN] has called for complete abolition of death penalty. In Europe, where abolition is a condition of membership of both EU and 46-nation Council of Europe (Russia is member), Belarus is only country that still uses it. In Africa, only four carried out death penalty 2006, and in Americas, US is only country to have executed anybody since 2003. Only Asia and Mideast seem largely untouched by global movement away from death penalty. Even China [in 2006 death sentences may be near 8,000] might be having second thoughts [Olympics]. Six countries-China/Iran/Pakistan/Iraq/Sudan/US- accounted for 90%+ of 2006 known executions. Methods of execution vary widely [stoning/stabbing/beheading/electrocution/shooting/hanging/ lethal injection]. Injection is now the preferred method in all but one of 38 [US] states that retain death penalty... US is one of very few democracies [along with Japan/India/South Korea/Taiwan] still to have death penalty"; John Grimond"A Special Report on Cities: The World Goes to Town"The Economist 05 May 07 (1-18 special pages):-official sum:"After this year the majority of people will live in cities. Human history will ever more emphatically become urban history". Highlights of above-titled first essay: "Even in 1800 only 3% of world's population lived in cities. In next months, proportion will pass 50%, if not done so already... Rural contribution to human progress seems slight compared with urban. Cities' development is synonymous with human development... Industrial Revolution did not at first make urban life easier, but it did provide jobs - lots. [I]n late 18th century was born entirely new urban era[:] peasants left the land... By 1900, 13% of world population had become urban. Latest leap, from 13% to 50% in 107 years, also owes to science/technology: [better] medicine/new knowledge avoid disease [and] lengthened lives... Sheer scale/speed of current urban expansion unlike any of big changes that punctuated urban history... UN forecasts today's urban 3.2 billion will rise to nearly 5 billion by 2030, when 3 of 5 people will live in cities. Increase will be most dramatic in poorest/least-urbanised continents, Asia and Africa. They are least able to cope [with many already in slums]. In 10 years world will have nearly 500 cities of 1m+ people. Most new will be absorbed in metropolis of up to 5m people. But some in megacity, defined as home to 10m or more inhabitants. [B]y 2020, says UN, nine cities - Delhi, Dhaka, Jakarta, Lagos, Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, Sao Paulo Tokyo - more than 20m. [I]f success is measured by growth of population.,. most are in poor countries, and many/most of inhabitants live in slums... Of traditional reasons for urban living, several (presence of shrine/proximity of food) lost their importance. Some of what city provided (shops/factories) lost importance. Some that provided (shops/factories) now in suburban malls/industrial parks - or in low-cost urban rivals in poorer world. [T]echnology, which has usually favoured urban progress, now enables people to work in rural bliss on computers. No wonder so many cities... have to reinvent themselves... While rich cities fret over modest ebb/flow of population, poor cities must cope tidal wave of migrants. So history of city has come to a fork. [We explore] diverging paths of rich and poor, and prospects for city if developing world can one day clamber out of poverty". Other essays:"The Strange Allure of the Slums"[mostly Nairobi and Mumbai]; "A Cul-de-Sac of Poverty"[need for economic growth]; "Thronged, Creaking and Filthy"[infrastructure ills]; "Failures at the Top"[government]; "In Place of God"[culture replaces religion]; "The Reinvention Test"[city success from rebirths]; "Et in Suburbia Ego?". Highlights of last essay, which examines futures:"[City] centre may be place to visit for work/entertainment, rather than live in. [E]conomic/technical changes seem to remove one of basic reasons for getting together in urban huddle. [But] with global warming and no economic alternative to scarce petrol, it may not be feasible to go on living 20km away from everything - school/work/babysitter/restaurant. [Also,] many people like urban life and want to go on living in city, particularly centre. [It is argued] next urban age will be characterised by... places where people live and work in the same building, lead busy local lives in pedestrian-scale neighbourhoods/strong communities... To slum-dwellers of [poor countries], all this may seem distant, indeed far-fetched. Their first need is get out of poverty - and slums. Yet technology, if it brought cheap/reliable commuting, might help: they could then afford to live on less expensive land in suburbs. In that event, rich and poor cities might start to look more similar and, for some, more attractive... When current rush to cities ends and great episode in history of urbanisation over, which will probably be when 80% of world live in cities, true effects of urban life may be clearer... With luck, tension can be put to work, reinventively, to create better cities. [S]uburbs will keep some adherents - if [petrol substitute]. But there is no going back to countryside now"; Economist 26 May 07"The World's Worst Holiday Destination: North Korea Through Chinese Eyes"(39-40):-official sum:"All the misery of Maoism with none of the redeeming features". Highlights:-"North Korea certainly deserves its nickname, hermit kingdom, [y]et needs dollars and tries to get them by attracting Chinese tourists, who go for the gambling and bizarre allure of a bygone fanaticism China once endured... In late 1990s, North Koreans allowed investors from Hong Kong and Macau to set up casinos... since gambling banned in China... As China saw it, casinos proved rather too popular, drawing huge numbers of corrupt officials. Two years ago, China cracked down on cross-border gambling... What remains is a niche market for the curious and sated [:] affluent urban Chinese now visit North for its rarity value and a taste of what they themselves have escaped from... Public worship of North's leader... is similar to the cult of Mao; state ideology of juche has much in common with Mao's isolationism... North almost as wary of Chinese visitors as of Westerners[:] Chinese assigned guides whose job is to prevent contact with locals... North prefers carefully controlled tours by South Koreans to Mount Kumgang, scenic resort [where] virtually no contact with locals... On 17 May, Koreas opened first rail links since Korean War[, b]ut no sign North plans to let South Koreans travel freely. Regular train services distant prospect... Not allow any visitors to bring phones - so fearful of unmonitored conduits to outside world. Chinese travel agent says North's poverty part of its off-beat appeal". Kai N.Lee"An Urbanizing World", introductory article of 2007 STATE OF THE WORLD: Our Urban Future(Wshdc: Worldwatch Institute 07):-Extract from the sub-section The Global Challenge of Urbanization:-"[S]ome time in the coming year the population of the world will become mostly urban. By 2005, the world's urban population of 3.18 billion people constituted 49% of the total population of 6.46b. Very soon, and for first time in history of our species, more humans will live in urban areas than rural places. This is a significant milestone on the long road of civilization. Ten thousand years ago, humans were hunter-gatherers who moved with their food sources. With the discovery of agriculture came permanent settlements and, in time, the imperial cities of the ancient world. More than two centuries ago, improvements in agriculture in northwest Europe made it possible for a smaller fraction of the population to feed everyone... On the heels of this increase in agricultural productivity came the invention of machines that could transform the heat of burning coal or wood into useful work. Industrial Revolution spread from Europe to North America and then Japan, and cities grew to house and serve the new factory workers, many of whom had left farms where their labor was no longer needed. By 1900 humanity stood on the threshold of modernity: a new way of life anchored in cities that would rewrite the conditions of human life". The other articles are: David Satterthwaite & Gordon McGranahan: Providing Clean Water and Sanitation; Brian Halweil & Danielle Nierenberg: Farming the Cities; Peter Newman & Jeff Kenworthy: Greening Urban Transportation; Janet L.Sawin & Kristen Hughes: Energizing Cities; Zoë Chafe: Reducing Natural Disaster Risk in Cities; Carolyn Stephens & Peter Stair: Charting a New Course for Urban Public Health; Mark Roseland with Lena Soots: Strengthening Local Economies; Janice E.Perlman with Molly O'Meara Sheehan: Fighting Poverty and Environmental Injustice in Cities; Economist 30 Jun 07"Chinese Politics: Democracy? Hu Needs It"(47-8):-official sum:"Ahead of its congress later this year, the Chinese Communist Party is tolerating a surprisingly wide-ranging debate about political reform". Highlights:"Hu Jintao, president/party chief, [in recent speech] acknowledged growing public demand for a say in politics. Efforts to reform... system, he said, should match these aspirations. [Recently] he has tolerated an unusually open debate about country's political options. Calls for multiparty democracy remain taboo, but not much else... Speech set clear boundaries. Party's leadership must be upheld; reform must adhere to 'current political orientation' [i.e.] no Western-style parliamentary democracy or balance of power between executive/legislature/judiciary. But... he faces some pressure to set a clearer agenda - in an 'orderly' way. [L]iberal intellectuals in China see room for big changes[, though] party press does not usually harp on merits of democracy. [I]n party-speak [it] has a quite different meaning from [that of] Westerners[ and] does not mean allowing organised opposition. [Last] Feb, liberal-leaning monthly journal... published article... singing the praises of Sweden's Social Democratic Party as a model[, and] warned that [Chinese party] could be destroyed... if it failed to reform politically. [A]rticle touched a raw nerve [and] debate has not stopped. [J]ournal by Ministry of Finance [offered] unusually detailed proposal for political change [which] could be carried out over next 20 years. [Though] careful to stress the need to maintain party's monopoly on power.,. its suggestions would transform China's politics. [R]esearchers also called for sweeping cuts in bureaucracy[, and] in a recent shuffle of provincial/lower-level party leaderships, tens of thousands at level of deputy party-secretary eliminated. Other ideas less palatable. Researchers suggested develop NGOs[,] but officials fear might turn into opposition groups. Researchers proposed proper election campaigns for seats in national legislature[, which] should be slimmed to about 15% of its current size [-] and allowed to engage in real debate. If Hu does have any plans for political change, unlikely to make them public before he has sealed his grip on power at party congress... If party is sincere about democracy, many academics say it should begin by encouraging it within its own ranks... If Hu wants democracy, he wants it... not yet". Closely related to the above are same issue's "Hong Kong: One Country, No Democracy"(Edit.12):-official sum:"If only Hong Kong were allowed to show China the way politically as it has economically";and"Special Report: Hong Kong:The Resilience of Freedom"(1-14 special pages):-official sum:"After ten years of Chinese sovereignty, Hong Kong's economy is thriving. But politics, says Simon Long, remains a one-horse race"; Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected"; Economist 29 Sep 07"World Economy: Stronger China"(Edit.14);"Briefing:China's Economy: How Fit Is the Panda?"(75-7):-Editorial's official sum:"Thanks to China, a US recession need not cause the whole world to crash". Highlights:"US now faces a mounting risk of recession. Good news, however, is that world has found some powerful new engines in China and other emerging economies. Even as credit markets seize up, a world economy less dependent on US is more likely to stay aloft. Power of this new motor is startling. For years, emerging Asian economies have accounted for more of global GDP growth than US [and] what matters for global growth is the extra dollars of spending generated each year. In first half 2007, increase in consumer spending [$] in China and India together contributed more to global GDP growth than increase in US did. [While] Chinese economy has weaknesses, it does not look like getting into trouble over next couple of years. [Briefing is stressed here; official sum:"China's booming economy is helping to support global growth as US turns sickly. So now it has to keep up the pace". Other China-relevant items: "Canada's Economy: The Loonie Takes Wing"(41-2):-China-related pits: "[I]ndustrialisation of China has boosted world price of Canada's exports of oil/gas/minerals/metals/farm products... As long as Chinese demand keeps commodity prices high, betting is that the economy and loonie[$] will stay aloft". Other items on Chinese economic progress, with official sums: "Pollution in China: Something in the Air?"(47):-"Locals think they know why their children are sick[ie oil industry];"Aviation in China: Dog Fight"(68):-"A fight in Shanghai between two airlines ends Chinese-style: mysteriously"; "Chinese Manufacturing: Plenty of Blame to Go Around"(68-70):-"Mattel tries to rescue its relationship with its Chinese suppliers".] If China can keep flying high, it will help keep world economy safe... China and most other Asian emerging economies now exporting more to EU than to US. China's exports to other emerging economies growing even faster. [Also] helps domestic spending has strengthened and likely to stay strong. [Even if] exports collapse, [financially the emerging Asian] governments also have ample scope to boost domestic demand... Emerging Asia accounted for 2/3 increase in world energy demand over past 5 years. So if Asia remains strong, commodity prices too, and commodity-producing economies... will also continue to thrive. [Hence] Asia can help keep world chugging along. Indeed, modest slowing in US economy could even help Asia in long run if it forces governments to switch the mix of growth from exports to consumption and so make their future growth more sustainable... Emerging economies now look like a force for stabilising the world economy"; Economist 13 Oct 07"The Communist Party Congress: China, Beware"(Edit.15); "Briefing: Rural China: Missing the Barefoot Doctors"(27-30); "China's Communist Party [CCP] Congress: Still in Mao's Shadow"(43-4):-Editorial's official sum:"The country's rulers care too much for their own welfare, and too little about the rural peasants". Highlights:"China looks the [world's] coming power[, yet China's frailties, not its strengths, preoccupy [CCP]. Hu Jintao, party boss/ China's president, rightly picks out two big problems: widening gap between mostly urban rich and mostly rural poor, and party's lack of 'internal democracy' [-] neither CCP nor its village dwellers are keeping up as the rest of China changes fast. [A]mong more than 700m left-behind peasants, frustrations are building [Briefing provides full report.] China's breakneck growth masks a multitude of problems, from rampant corruption and devastating pollution to a frail banking system and lack of independent courts... Meanwhile, three [growth] decades... have left country divided between... upwardly mobile city dwellers and stagnating rural communities[ - with serious] income disparity. Hu has tried to accomodate some demands for change. [L]aw was passed that enshrines private property rights[, b]ut like much else, these new rights will benefit mostly city-dwellers'.. homes or businesses. In country, peasants able only to lease their land, not own it[, and] new law will do nothing to rectify landgrabs by venal local officials. [V]illage dwellers not only seen their city compatriots get richer quicker; their own concerns been neglected. [Since 89 Tiananmen bloodshed, CCP] has paid better heed to the grievances of China's urban masses[; village democracy has gone nowhere... Despite thousands of village protests each year against corrupt officials, poor medical services and bad schools, China's peasants - more dispersed, less organised [than city dwellers]and therefore more easily ignored or suppressed - can usually do little but seethe. Hu bemoans... inequalities, but has done little[, though] there is much that could improve peasants' lot. [T]ax system unduly favours the wealthy regions[;] government could adjust that [and] help shoulder... a bigger share of the costs of basic health care/education in rural areas... Another way Hu could help peasants would be to divert some of the double-digit annual increases on defence spending to help the estimated 40% of villages [with] no access to running water... So far, combination of appeal to nationalism and pursuit of economic growth[, but plight and growing anger of peasantry are a harbinger of potential trouble. It is trouble CCP is increasingly ill-prepared to deal with [see "...Mao's Shadow"]... CCP is too fearful for its own survival to open itself up to a genuine clash of ideas"; Economist 10 Nov 07"Technology in Asia: Howling at the Moon"(Edit.16); "Special Report on Technology in India and China: High-Tech Hopefuls"(Unique 1-22):-Official sums:"US should keep its cool about technological threat posed by China and India";"China and India have much to offer the world of technology, argues Simon Cox, but more still to gain from it". Editorial's highlights:"China's technological enthusiasm is matched by that of India. As Special Report shows, both believe can succeed in high-tech markets that US, Europe, Japan long regarded as theirs by right. [Western] policymakers/industry groups quake at number of scientists/engineers the two populous Asians turn out[,] squeal about the imitation of ideas, both real/alleged, and lament emigration of jobs... So much for fears. Facts suggest altogether cosier accomodation between aspirants/incumbents. Japan/West invent stuff and market it; emerging Asia makes stuff, customises, services it. [A]lthough China/India have much to offer world of technology, they have more still to gain from it [- and their] ascent much less scary than that of Japan/South Korea. China/India see foreign firms as clients/investors, not just rivals[, and eye their] big and relatively open markets as source of customers as well as competition... Technological creativity is rooted in a country's institutions as well as its people's ingenuity. [A] society must [just] reward innovation without stifling diffusion/collaboration; China/India yet to show they can crack that problem".Special Report highlights:"After 15th century, [globally dominant] technological clock stopped in both countries, even as it accelerated in Europe... That diffidence no longer hampers either state. Both China/India are now restless with technological ambition. China's government does not have the luxury of choosing between progress/stability; it cannot enjoy social peace without economic advance... By 2015 its research scientists/engineers may outnumber those of any other country. By 2020 it aims to spend a bigger share of GDP on R&D than EU. India surveys the future with uncharacteristic optimism. Its technological confidence has grown immeasurably thanks to the success of its software and IT firms... But even as India's tech-powers make splash in world, they stir only surface of its own vast society. [It] produces more engineering graduates than US[, but] has only 24 personal computers for every 1,000 people... This is a pity. India/China still have more to gain from adoption/assimilation technology than from invention per se. [B]ut more urgent task for countries is to make wider use of know-how that already exists... Both miss out when policies to promote invention... serve to stymie diffusion". After above sum, other sums clearer than essay titles: "Economies of India/China are not as sophisticated as they appear"."Few Indian firms are creating drugs, rather than recreating them". "Invention is costly and frustrating work. India/China have better things to do". "China's leaders want own technology titans. But China's true national champion is its big market". "A new way of mixing existing technologies is also innovation". "Where the venturesome find their consumers"."Old-school retailing in high-tech[Chinese]business"."Chatty Indianshave embraced mobile phone,but many still shrug at PC". Highlights from final essay:"Splendid Miscegenation: Something Borrowed, Something True"(21-2):"India now host to R&D centres for over 100 multinational firms...China does even better: over 750 centres...Thanks to China/India, innovation has undergone a process of division/separation[ - with] worries US technological pretensions will be cut... by growth of Asia's scientific workforce... India's traditional fear of multinationals has eased in recent years. Now China more than India is prey to 'techno-nationalists'... Indian/ Chinese firms have comparative advantage in finding new uses for existing technologies, and combining them in novel ways. [N]ow that R&D is globalised,.. knowledge can circulate between countries. [S]o developing countries must mix imported knowledge with ideas of their own before they can truly assimilate them.. But states should not fancy that technology can be owned from bottom to top, or that innovation can be accomodated by decree". Unlock Wikipedia??

The Economist 19 Jan 08"Democracy in Retreat: Freedom Marches Backward"(Edit.12):-off.sum: "Why the setback is likely to be temporary". Highlights:"[US] Freedom House's closely watched annual review confirms 2007 was the second year during which freedom retreated in most of the world, reversing a democratic tide that had looked almost unstoppable during 1990s following collapse of communism and breakup of Soviet Union. [Attention then stressed on: "Measuring Liberty: When Freedom Stumbles"(63-4):-off.sum:"Civil and democratic rights are in retreat, says an organisation with strong, though not uncontested, views on the matter".] [N]ews is grim[, b]ut can be a mistake to extrapolate too much from the advances and retreats of a single year or two. [T]wo brighter observations. First, most people in most places still want democracy [-] evident not only in what people say, even in conservative Muslim countries[, but] also reflected in what people do[Kenya, Afghanistan, Iraq]. [C]ountries now riven by political violence ... does not prove their voters cannot grasp the democratic idea... Where the strong are willing to use violence to thwart popular will [Myanmar] or provoke violent reaction [Kenya], idea itself is harder to squash or suborn. In many newly democratic parts of the world [Latin America], its roots are spreading wider and burrowing deeper. [S]econd, there are many reasons why societies advancing fitfully towards democracy can suffer setbacks[: the] transitions are disorderly [Russia, Iraq]. But autocracies suffer setbacks too [Pakistan, Thailand, Bangladesh]. Freedom House may well be right that democracy is on the back foot right now. In the longer run, its appeal is undiminished". Particularly relevant is Johns Hopkins University's Francis Fukuyama "A Quiet Revolution: Latin America's Unheralded Progress"Foreign Affairs Vol.86/No.6 (Nov/Dec 07). This is careful/positive review of Michael Reid Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul(Yale Univ. Press 07) 352 pp. Review's official summary:"Latin America is deepening its democratic institutions, integrating into the global economy, and finally addressing endemic social inequalities - in short, turning into something of a success story even as most outsiders look the other way"; Economist 02 Feb 08"The Internet in China: Alternative Reality"(69-70):-off.sum:"China will soon boast more internet users than any other country. But usage patterns inside China are different from those elsewhere". Highlights:"[By end-07,] internet users... reached 210m,... up by more than 50% on 06 and more than 3 times number for India... Within few months,.. China will have more users than US[ and,] at just 16%, rapid growth likely to continue for some time. [N]o surprise, but done in a very different way from other countries [-]largely result government's repressive approach towards information/entertainment. News is censored... Internet itself also tightly controlled. Access to many foreign websites restricted; Google's site filters its results to exclude politically sensitive material... Yet it is limitations... that make internet so popular in China[:] internet fills gaps and provides what is unavailable elsewhere, particularly for young people. More than 70% of Chinese internet users are under 30, precisely the opposite of US. [O]bvious use is to distribute free pirated films/TV shows/music... China's censors... unable to stem flow of pirated foreign media. [P]iracy starting to worry government,.. because availability of free foreign content is holding back development of domestic media industry. [M]aking money online, biggest market involves delivery of mobile-internet content to mobile phones. Over 1/2billion mobile-phone users; more than 1/2 then use phones to buy ringtones/jokes/pictures... Another big field: online multiplayer games [-]so popular, government started worry aboutimpact on adults' productivity/children's education... Although constraints on... hard news, internet sites provide steady supply of gossip, features, dabs of propaganda, slightly salacious stories/photos; constantly testing boundaries of what is permissible. [M]ost dynamic area, and hardest for outsiders to understand, is online communities. [F]or many users in China, internet not truly a worldwide web; only as wide as China[, but] internet community evidently a world unto itself"; Economist 09 Feb 08"Smoking: How To Save a Billion Lives"(65-6):-off.sum:"A war against the weed spreads and escalates, though the odds are unequal". While these highlights relate to this surprisingly critical report, tobacco must now be viewed as a DRUG with health dangers, even if still legal. Other new articles also related to current drug issues in many countries(with off.sums.): also in 09 Feb 08"Canada: Nice Country, Nasty Gangs"(41):-"Drug-fuelled violence mars an idyll"; "Britain: Dealing with Drug Addiction: Hard to Swallow"(61-2):-"It is difficult to trust the policies of a government that keeps its evidence secret". In 02 Feb 08"Drugs in Mexico: Marching As To War"(45):-"Drug gangs ratchet up the violence in Mexico as judicial reform begins"; "The Caribbean: The World's Most Violent Region/Sun, Sea and Murder"(46):-"Here, too, drug trafficking is to blame"; "Afghanistan's Tribal Complexity: In the Dark"(49):-"Far more than two sides to the conflict... In Helmand a 20-year-old battle involves at least three main factions competing for control of the province's huge opium trade". "Smoking":.. highlights:"[I]t cuts short the lives of between a third and half of its practitioners. According to World Health Organisation(WHO), perhaps 100m died prematurely during 20th century as result of tobacco, making it the leading preventable cause of death and one of the top killers overall. Another 1b more may die from it this century if current trends continue unchecked. In recent years, smoking has been sharply restricted in some unlikely places[, b]ut the number of smokers in China, India and other developing countries continuing to grow, as addiction spreads faster than information. Hence determination of [most] involved in global public health to escalate war on smoking. Over 150 countries already ratified Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which requires take range of anti-smoking measures... In addition, WHO pushing aggressive policies at national/local levels [and] due to unveil the most comprehensive survey of tobacco use ever carried out... WHO says countries must do six related things. 1: improve quality of data on tobacco use. 2: impose [area/function] bans [on smoking]. 3: intensify efforts to induce/assist smokers to drop the habit. 4: large, grotesque pictorial warnings on cigarette packages. 5: a complete ban on marketing. 6: higher taxes - 70% increase in retail price of tobacco could prevent up to 25% of all tobacco-related deaths worldwide[, and] benefit the poor... Practical argument for action is simpler: tobacco industry is getting world's poor hooked before governments can respond. In recent years,.. tobacco firms have shifted their focus to poorer places[, and] regrouping in order to focus on 'promising' markets and escape the pesky lawsuits likely to face in rich, litigious countries... [E]radicating tobacco may prove every bit as hard as fighting insect-borne disease"; Economist 16 Feb 08"Briefing: China's Infrastructure Splurge: Rushing On By Road, Rail and Air"(30-2):-off.sum:"China's race to build roads, railways and airports speeds ahead. Democracy, says official, would sacrifice efficiency". "China's Farmland: This Land is My Land" :-off.sum./key point:"Peasants for privatisation/Government worries that country's food security will be jeopardised by the loss of farming land. It is alarmed that peasants living close to cities have increasingly been behaving as if the land is theirs already". "Politics and Sport: [China's] High Hurdles"(67):-off.sum/key point:"It has never been possible to separate the Olympics from politics/Games are of huge political importance to China[:] leaders want to show off their country as a respected world power"."The World Economy: A Stimulating Notion"(81-3):-off.sum/point: "Idea of giving flagging economies a fiscal boost is back in fashion/Economies with the strongest fiscal positions, such as China, need to worry about overheating more than slumping". "Asian Budget Finances: Poles Apart"(82):-off.sum/point:"China has plenty more room than India to stimulate growth/Government could have a surplus of around 3% of GDP. China's public debt... only 17% of GDP... China has best fiscal position of any big country". "Economics Focus: From Mao to the Mall"(86):-off.sum/final para:"Amid all the global gloom, the good news is that China is turning into a nation of spenders, as well as sellers/In 2008 China will probably suffer its first slowdown in growth for seven years. But strong domestic demand should mean that a US recession would not bring the Chinese economy to a screeching halt. Indeed, to the extent that economy was starting to overheat, a slowdown will be welcomed by Chinese policymakers. If almost all of the slowdown comes from net exports, while domestic spending remains robust, then the whole world can cheer, too". Highlights of "Brief":-China's rapid economic growth and equally rapid integration into the global economic system is putting huge strains on its infrastructure. This has led to a spate of spending on transport. [Such] investment will see double-digit growth every year for the rest of the decade[:] 06-10, $200b expected in railways alone[;] world's longest sea-crossing bridge due to open in Jun 08[;] from Aug, journey from Beijing to nearest port[115km] reduced to 30min with inauguration of bullet-train link[;] work began Jan on 1300km line[$30b] between Beijing and Shanghai [to] reduce rail time from 10 to 5hrs [-]competitive to flying. [S]ince 90s China has built an expressway network criss-crossing the country that is second only to US... system in length. By end 07, some 53,600km of toll expressways built. [Aim:] 70,000km by 20. [N]etwork has helped divert some of freight traffic from overburdened railway system [and] promote sharp increase in private car ownership[,] the growth of industries near the route and increasing use of cars for long-distance travel. [Also] planned construction of 300,000km new rural roads between 06 and 10, increase of nearly 50%... World Bank[:] China's railways carry 25% of world railway traffic on just 6% of its track length[; but] investment has grown considerably [-] biggest expansion... undertaken by any country since 19th century [-] to 120,000km by 15. [B]y 20, railway system's freight-handling capacity should be greater than demand [-] at present can handle only 40%[, so] bring down logistics costs, which amount to 18% of GDP, and help reduce pollution [via lorries]. Aviation facilities will expand rapidly[:] increase in air passenger traffic from 7m in 85 to over 185m in 07. [Planned] to add 97 airports by 20, to 142 China had end of 06. [A]lso huge expansion of seaport capacity[:] government predicts container throughput will increase by 85% between 10 and 20. [Also,] rapid expansion of costly [subways;] now 15 cities building them [and] Beijing will have biggest underground network in the world by 15. Complaints still abound about the way things work[:] China has 70% of the world's tolled roads and its tolls are highest in world [- so] lorries routinely overload[, helping] make roads among the most dangerous in world (89,000 deaths in 06). [Plans for the coming years may encounter a bit more resistance: middle-class now growing rapidly, with some increasingly vocal. T]he most jaw-dropping project of all [is] an expressway from Beijing to Taipei [by 30]. How the road would traverse the 150km Taiwan Strait is not mentioned"; Economist 15 Mar 08"China: The New Colonialists"(Edit.13):-off.sum:"China's hunger for natural resources is causing more problems at home than abroad". Highlights: "[C]ountry accounts for about 20% of world's population, yet it gobbles more than 50% world's pork, 50% its cement, 33% its steel, 25+% its aluminium[;] spending 35 times as much on imports of soya beans/crude oil as in 99, and 23 times as much importing copper... [O]il price is setting new records because demand from China and other developing economies is still on the rise. IEA expects China's oil imports to triple by 30. [Editorial then flags:"A Special Report On China's Quest For Resources"(Special 1-22):-off.sum.of introduction titled "A Ravenous Dragon"(3-6): "China's hunger for natural resources has set off a global commodity boom. Developed states worry about being left high/dry, but biggest effects will be in China itself, says Edward McBride". Other essays/off.sums:"Iron Rations"(6-8):"China is determined to make the most of its own limited resources". "The Lucky Country"(10-2):"Australia can't dig fast enough to meet demand from China". "Mutual Convenience"(12-4):"Congo has something China wants, and vice versa". "No Strings"(14-7):"Why developing countries like doing business with China". "Intrepid Explorers"(16):"China's mining/oil firms pop up everywhere". "A Large Black Cloud"(17-21): "Rapid growth is exacting a heavy environmental price". "The Perils of Abundance"(21-2):"China must learn to do more with less".] In its drive to secure reliable supplies of raw materials, it is said, China is coddling dictators, despoiling poor countries, undermining Western efforts to spread democracy/prosperity... This ignores benefits China's commodities binge brings, not only to poor countries, but also to some rich ones. [E]conomies of Africa and Latin America never grown so fast... China could - and should - use its influence to curb the nastiest of its friends [eg Sudan/Myanmar, and]beginning to do so... The more business with rest of world, the more nuanced its foreign policy likely to become... Over past few years,..shift from light manufacturing to heavy industry. So for each unit of output, China now consumes more raw material[, and] implications are dramatic. [W]orryingly, this is compounding China's already grim pollution. [M]ore steel mills/chemical plants mean more acid rain/smog [-] an enormous drag on society. [Government] believes costs inflicted by pollution each year amount to some 10% of GDP. [P]ollution is cause of ever more protests/demonstrations [60,000 in 06] and potential for even more disruptive environmental crises... Government aware of these problems and trying to address them. [Editorial then flags:"Industry in China: Where Is Everybody?"(77-8):-off.sum: "Manufacturers struggle in southern China's industrial belt".] [Government] increased fines for pollution, reduced subsidies on fuels, scrapped tax breaks for heavy industry. It is also promoting cleaner sources of power, such as windmills/natural gas... All [such] green schemes undermined by artificial abundance cheap capital... Chinese depositors/taxpayers subsidising very industries that slowly poisoning them. [Finances in:"Chinese Inflation: Sweet and Sour Pork"(90-1):-off.sum:"Are rising prices in China driven by supply of meat or money?"] [China] should curb its hunger for resources. Less wasteful development strategy would be healthier". Editorial 22 Mar 08 contains two items directly related to above: "China's Annual Parliament: Unanswered Questions"(44):-Highlights:"After China's parliament ends its annual session, the prime minister dutifully presents himself for two hours of grilling by the press, broadcast on national TV... Wen Jiabao admitted he was 'deeply worried' about world economy and said 2008 could be 'most difficult year' for China... National People's Congress (NPC)... did take some steps of consequences this year. [I]t ushered in new slate of senior state leaders, notably Li Keqiang,.. widely seen as rising star and man most likely to take a top job in 2013, when PM Wen and President Hu due to step aside. In new post as vice-premier, [Li] have to deal with thorny macro-economic issues that so worry Wen... NPC's other main achievement was a long-mooted reordering of central government's structure, folding separate bureaucracies into five 'super-ministries'. Human Resources and Social Security are now one ministry, as are Housing and Construction. Former Environmental Protection Agency was upgraded to ministerial status, and new National Energy Commission established. Ministry of Health was handed oversight of food and drug safety"."China's Stockmarket: Earnings Up, Prices Down"(87):-"[A]t heart of China's booming industrial relations with the rest of world, it packages exports... China's once impregnable stockmarkets seem to be hitting reality with a bump... China appears to be suffering from a home-grown liquidity squeeze that is not so different from one afflicting the West. As inflation pushes higher, Chinese government has curbed lending by the banks... Tighter credit is likely to crimp expansion plans and hence revenue growth... The froth is coming off in parts of the market... Not all the troubles are locally produced, however. Adding to the gloom is the waning enthusiasm of foreign investors";

The Economist 22 Mar 08"Tibet: A Colonial Uprising"(Edit.12):-off.sum:"The Dalai Lama is China's best hope of winning Tibetan acceptance". Highlights:"Chinese leaders... claim Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, is becoming irrelevant, yet insist he managed to foment the latest outpouring of anti-Chinese resentment seen in Tibet. [Stresses Economist's unique, eyewitness report on the uprising:"Briefing: A Week in Tibet: Trashing the Beijing Road"(27-9):-off.sum:"Our Beijing correspondent happened to be in Lhasa as the riots broke out. Here is what he saw".] Dalai Lama is a constant irritant in China's efforts to achieve full international respectability. His stature/access to world leaders keep Tibet issue alive, though... government-in-exile [ignored]. [H]e retains loyalty of many Tibetans... So China persists in seeing Dalai Lama as embodiment of its 'Tibet problem'. In fact, he offers the only plausible solution to it. China's strategy... is to wait for his death, and install a pliant successor. [But] no successor will command such veneration... The fury, arson, vandalism, bloodshed in Lhasa in recent days were not instigated by Dalai Lama[, but] erupted in spite of his frequent calls for restraint, and were in part a consequence of China's refusal to engage in more than desultory talks with his representatives... Serious talks with Dalai Lama/possibility of his returning home,.. might help assuage Tibetan anger... It would give China the chance, belatedly, to honour the promise of autonomy it gave Tibet in 1951... It would boost its image around the world, and even in Taiwan... Yet China shows no sign of being swayed by these arguments. [I]t hopes that economic advance will soften calls for political freedom[, and that] immigration by the majority Han Chinese will swamp nationalist sentiment. Unless and until that happens, there is always sheer force. That has been used this time with more discretion than in the past. But it is nevertheless the means China seems to have chosen to rule Tibet... It need not be that way". For detailed background information, see "Tibet: Mountain Forces"(93-4):-off.sum:"Two unusual new books analyse Tibet's turbulent past and its uncertain future". Authors/Titles: Tubten Khetsun. Translated by Matthew Akester. Memories of Life in Lhasa Under Chinese Rule(Columbia Univ Press 08); Pico Iyer.The Open Road: The Global Journey of the Fourteenth Dalai Lama(Knopf/Bloomsbury 08). Economist 29 Mar 08 "Tibet and the Beijing Olympics: A Sporting Chance"(Edit.19):-off.sum:"It is not time for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Yet". Highlights:"[W]hen it competed for right to host games, China used a political argument: would help China's 'reform and opening'. But games now overshadowed by spectre of nationalist unrest in Tibet and China's unyielding response. [T]his month's rioting in Lhasa was not an isolated venting of anti-Chinese spleen. [Editorial then flags:"China and Tibet: Welcome to the Olympics"(53-4):-off.sum:"Resenting criticism of its handling of unrest in Tibet, China wages a gruesome propaganda offensive".] [Violence] was part of a broader outpouring of fury felt across Tibetan plateau. China responded with [many] troops,.. political invective,.. and exclusion of foreign press from affected areas. But it has not quelled all protest, nor suppressed news of clashes [-] one reason for China's relative restraint... Olympics are another... Outside China, the torch relay will attract protests about Tibet [and China] risks foreign governments leading a sporting boycott. [A]t least some Chinese leaders recognise that their behaviour, not that of foreign governments, will determine the success of the Beijing games". Economist 12 Apr 08"China...: Keeping the Flame Alight"(Edit.14-5):-off.sum:"Two ways to repair China's image: end the torch relay, & take a lead over Myanmar"[latter summarized separately]. Highlights:"The Beijing 2008 Olympic Torch Relay, taking the flame around the world before the games begin... was always a risk... But suppression of riots and protests in Tibet has ensured torch's progress has graduated... to full-scale public-relations disaster... China has displayed its dark side: nervous, repressive, prickly, stubborn... To accuse China's critics of 'politicising' a sporting event is nonsense. [Relay] is not some timeworn practice integral to the games... China's pride may preclude any concession, however face-saving on Tibet, or on human rights abuses in general". "The Olympic Flame: Torch Song Trilogy"(47):-off.sum:"A lament for Tibet, sung in three Western cities and heard with fury in China". Highlights:"['Relay' visit] protesters have hung [Tibet's] snow-lion flag high above San Francisco and waved it through the centres of London and Paris... The torch was guarded not just by police but by a phalanx of Chinese men in blue-and-white tracksuits... Protesters everywhere demanded China talk to the Dalai Lama[, but] China has shown no sign of wavering on international or domestic parts of the itinerary... Chinese press has portrayed the disruptions as marginal, amid massive shows of support by ordinary citizens... With each protest, the pressure mounts on Western leaders not to attend the opening ceremony for the games in Aug... Just as damaging for China in the long run, however, may be the effect on ordinary citizens". "Security for the Beijing Olympics: Orange is Not Only Protest"(48-9):-off.sum:"Athens, London, Paris, San Francisco...please not Beijing". Highlights: "When Chinese officials talk about security threats to Olympic games[, t]hey worry not just about terrorist attacks, but about behaviour in the stands... Expecting a strict dress code, activists have been urging protesters simply to wear the colour orange... Ministry of Culture... tightening foreign shows... China has been talking up the threats of terrorism from Muslims in its western region of Xinjiang and has spoken of possible suicide-attacks by Tibetans. But the threat of peaceful protest is a far bigger headache... Unrest in Tibet helped rally support for leadership among ordinary Chinese... But surge of nationalist sentiment whipped up also carries risks". Economist 26 Apr 08"Chinese Nationalism: Flame On"(Edit.17):-off.sum:"Rather than shout themselves hoarse, maybe foreign/Chinese protesters could try talking". Highlight:"Olympics... intended to mark China's reintegration into world... as great power. Instead, preparations... into some of ugliest verbal confrontations for year between China and its critics. [Yet] Tibetans have real grievances, after decades of cultural discrimination/economic marginalisation. China's government cannot admit that. [But] both foreign/Chinese protesters might learn something from each other". "China: Manage That Anger"(58-9):-off.sum:"The national genie is out of the bottle". Highlight:"Mixed in with all nationalist bluster have been a few voices of moderation. But a bit of calm/wisdom could go a long way, as could a more nuanced understanding among Chinese nationalists of the outside world that so frequently angers them." Economist 19 Apr 08"Food: The Silent Tsunami"(Edit.13):-off.sum:"Food prices are causing misery and strife around the world. Radical solutions are needed". Highlights:"A wave of food-price inflation is moving through the world, leaving riots/shaken governments in its wake. [F]ood protests in many places at once". Samples:"Bangladesh: A Different Sort of Emergency"(52-3):- off.sum:"A food crisis further complicates the army's exit strategy". "China's Grain Supply: The Ravening Hoards"(54):-off.sum:"No need for alarm; but some Chinese ring bells anyway". Edit. continues:"[Crisis] will test [if] famines do not happen in democracies. [M]easures of today's crisis are misery/malnutrition [-]100m could be forced back to... absolute poverty... Because food markets in turmoil, civil strife growing; because trade/openness itself could be undermined, food crisis of 08 may become a challenge to globalisation... World Bank/UN calling for 'new deal' [- but] not so easy[:] food is not a one-solution-fits-all problem[;] some of help needed now risks making matters worse in long run. Starting-point[:] rising fool prices bear more heavily on some places than others. Food exporters/net sellers benefit[;] some countries... risk ruin/civil strife. [F]irst step must mend... world's safety net [i.e. by] financing WFP[, whose] purchasing power slashed by rising cost of grain[. So it] should get extra $700m [and] be allowed to broaden what it does. At moment[,] no absolute shortages, and task is to lower domestic prices without doing too much harm to farmers. [B]est done by distributing cash, not food - by supporting social-protection programs/food-for-work schemes for poor. [WFP's] main burden - tens of billion $ worth - borne by developing-country governments/lending institutions in West. Such actions = palliatives[, but] crisis has revealed market failures at every linkof food chain". Focus then on: "Briefing: Food and the Poor: The New Face of Hunger"(32-4):-off.sum:"Global food shortages have taken everyone by surprise. What is to be done?" and "How Countries Cope: Reviving the Ration Card"(33):-off.sum:"Making food cheaper is not impossible". Editorial derives from these: "Any 'new deal' ought to try address problems holding poor farmers back. [G]overnments ought to liberalise markets, not intervene in them: food is riddled with state intervention... [U]pshot of quotas, subsidies, controls is to dump all imbalances... onto the unregulated part of food chain: international market. For decades, this produced low world prices and disincentives to poor farmers. Now, opposite is happening... As result of... subsidies to biofuels in rich world, prices have gone through roof. Governments further exaggerated [prices] by imposing export quotas and trade restrictions. [Henceforth, they should only] provide basic technology[: costly irrigation projects/science on high-yield seeds]. To increase yields, science is crucial. Agriculture is now in limbo. World of cheap food has gone[ but,] with luck/good policy, will be a new equilibrium. The transition is proving more costly/painful than expected[, but] the change is desirable, and governments should be seeking to ease the pain of transition, not to stop the process itself". Economist 03 May 08"Farm Subsidies: The Right Time To Chop"(Edit.15-18):-off.sum:"Rich-country governments must ignore special pleading to restrict farm trade". Final deep emotion: "Defenders of... rich-country farm policies cannot have it both ways. They cannot demand more money when prices are low, and then ask for extra protection when they rise. High food prices [now] further undermine their already rotten arguments for support, and offer golden opportunity to dismantle rich-country farm protection. Governments would be mad...not to take it".Economist

10 May 08"Food Prices and Protest: Taking the Strain"(69-70):-off.sum:"The political fallout from the rising cost of food has been manageable - so far". Highlights:"[P]resident of World Bank said 100m were being pushed into hunger and malnutrition - and 30-odd countries faced social upheaval unless food policy improved and the rich world got its act together to help. [D]onors need a single, simple guide on how and where to help... First priority has been to finance World Food Program,.. which as hard hit by food inflation as any slum-dweller. WFP asked for $750m this year, and so far got about two-thirds. UN is also trying to make international response more coherent[; yet] crisis set off a round of bickering over UN's standing food bureaucracy. [R]ich countries are already managing to be fairly incoherent without any UN infighting. Hope... was that higher prices would induce rich countries to cut state aid to farmers[, b]ut policy changes are thin... While donors squabble, poor countries face riots... Around 30 have suffered protests, but only Haiti has seen its government fall... In some, rising food prices... causing less distress than might have been expected because benefits have also appeared. [W]ages for landless peasants are soaring... In countries with millions of urban poor, governments have so far survived demonstrations in part because they are seen to be reacting... About 30 have imposed some form of trade restraint. [Many] policies inflationary and expensive. [M]ore protests [likely]". Economist 03 May 08"China: The Dragon Is Angry"(Edit.13):-there have been very many Economist items relating essentially to: (1) violence between Tibetans and Chinese officials; and (2) global circulation by China of the Olympic flame generating both anti- and pro-Beijing demonstrations. Summaries are grouped above -starting 22 Mar 08"Tibet: A Colonial Uprising". The following summaries focus on a related issue: the political and economic frustrations of multiple Chinese, many of whom demonstrated both at home and abroad against the "anti-Chinese" gestures around the flame. Editorial off.sum:"The recent glimpses of a snarling China should scare the country's government as much as the world". Highlights:"Many Chinese... need new aspirations. Government's solution is to promise them China will be restored to its rightful place at the centre of world affairs... But appeal to nationalism... could easily turn on the government itself... China's rage... reflects a fear that a resentful, threatened West is determined to thwart China's rise. [Y]et the impression the response gives of a people united behind the government is an illusion. China is a land of a million mutinies now[: farm land swallowed up; poisoning of air, rivers, lakes; officials corrupt; party downplays law/justice]. Popular anger, once roused, can easily switch targets. [U]nprecedented phenomenon of rapid integration into the world... seems irreversible... But the world and China have to learn to live with each other". "China: A Lot to be Angry About"(49-50):-off.sum:"Polluted, poisonous and immune to popular efforts to enforce a clean-up: Tai Lake is a metaphor for the state of China's politics". Highlight: It was one of China's biggest environmental scandals since the Communist Party came to power [1949]". "China's Stockmarket: Seeing Red"(83-4):-off.sum:"How meddling helped investors". Highlight: "[Q]uestions are emerging within China about whether the government should be interfering with the markets at all". "Economics Focus: China's Dodgy Statistics"(85):-off.sum: "Coming to terms with China's untrustworthy economic numbers". Highlight: "Now that China is such an engine of global growth, it urgently needs to improve its economic data". Economist 10 May 08 contains several significant items, dealing with China-Tibet and China-Japan relations, plus Chinese health, vehicle and major energy developments. Here are brief notations on them all: "China and Tibet: A Lama in Sheep's Clothing?"(51):-off.sum:"Revered by Tibetans, reviled by China". Highlights:"Chinese officials are talking again to representatives of the Dalai Lama. But... few believe China's own heart has changed... Both sides are anxious not to appear to be closing the door... China's surprising decision to offer renewed talks seemed aimed at deflecting foreign criticism of its handling of Tibet ahead of Beijing Olympics... Only the next round of talks would count as the resumption of a formal dialogue. The Tibetans had several demands: an end to the clampdown in Tibet, including withdrawal of security forces from monasteries; no more 'patriotic education' requiring monks to denounce the Dalai Lama; an investigation by an international body into the causes of the unrest; the release of political trainees; and fair trials for those accused of rioting. None of this will be heard sympathetically by China". "China and Japan: Blossoming Friendship"(51-2):-off.sum:"But ties between Asia's two biggest powers remain delicate". Highlights:"A series of reciprocal visits over the past 20 months by the leaders of China and Japan have brought a thaw in bilateral relations... It may come as a relief to both sides that... the attitudes of urban Chinese are turning more positive towards Japan... But it will take a lot more... to erase the impression of many Japanese that they are loathed in China more than they are admired". "China's Latest Virus: Better Safe Than Sorry"(52):-off.sum:"Once bitten, twice shy: China's past transgressions in reporting viruses come back to haunt it in the run-up to the Olympics". "Smoking in Beijing: Out of Puff"(53):-off.sum:"No longer compulsory; in some places not even allowed". "Great Wall Motor: Hungry Like the Wolf"(74):-off.sum:"A small Chinese carmaker with ambitious plans". "Briefing: Energy Efficiency: The Elusive Negawatt"

(78-80):-off.sum:"If energy conservation both save money and is good for the planet, why don't people do more of it?" Highlights referring to China in valuable global survey:"In US, 'energy intensity' - the amount of energy required to generate each dollar of output - is falling by about 2% a year. This is only partly because US factories, houses, cars and appliances are becoming more efficient: it is also because energy-guzzling factories have moved to cheaper spots such as China. But globally, too, energy intensity is falling by around 11/2% a year... China has just said it will subsidise makers of compact fluorescent light-bulbs, which are four or five times more efficient than cheaper incandescent sort... China's central government... setting energy-efficiency targets for the country's 1,000 biggest firms... Overall, Chinese government hopes that energy intensity will be 20% lower in 2010 than it was in 2006"; Economist 17 May 08"Disasters in China and Myanmar: No Time to Sit Back"(Edit.20-2):-"[On 12 May] a devastating earthquake struck western China. President Hu Jintao at once mobilised soldiers and other workers in an all-out rescue effort. PM Wen Jiabao arrived in the region within a few hours, making no attempt to play down this 'severe disaster' and saying China would gratefully accept international help". Editorial then draws attention to: "China's Earthquake: Days of Disaster"(51-2):-"China's PM [sympathised with] weeping orphans in a town almost flattened by country's worst natural disaster in more than 30 years... Chinese troops have been struggling to rescue thousands of people buried in rubble and to bring aid to stricken communities across a wide area of the southwest on the edge of the Tibetan plateau. [T]he toll could reach 50,000, the government said. [It] responded to the earthquake rapidly and with uncharacteristic openness. Within hours Wen was on a plane, President Hu was chairing an emergency meeting of the Politburo's Standing Committee and thousands of soldiers and police were being dispatched. After an initial deployment of 5,000 troops the number was ramped up to 100,000 within 3 days. Official media... rapidly updated casualty numbers. State-owned TV provided non-stop coverage. [C]overing up was not an option. China measured the earthquake at a magnitude of 7.8... But leaders anxious to repair the public-relations damage they have suffered internationally as result of Tibet crisis [op.cit]. Foreign reporters allowed into affected areas without hindrance. China welcomed foreign aid in the form of material and cash. [R]ecent upsurge of anti-Western sentiment triggered by events in Tibet appears to be abating... Wen has remained at the scene to direct relief operations. [R]esentment is directed at local officials rather than the central authorities... Even the state-owned media have said shoddy construction may have exacerbated the impact. Casualties at schools have been high. Officials are worried about damage to dams". Return to Editorial:"[Past experience taught the Chinese government] that burying bad news is not always sensible,.. of the merits of occasionally admitting imperfection, and even of offering a prime ministerial apology. [T]hey have learned that beating up their Tibetan citizens may not be wise just as they are trying to impress the world with an Olympic extravaganza. Such lessons have helped China respond more openly to the country's latest natural disaster". Economist 24 May 08"The Earthquake in Sichuan: China Helps Itself"(57-8):-off.sum:"Government's relief effort is impressive; even more inspiring is what ordinary people are doing to fill the gaps". Highlights:"Party has mobilised its own forces on a huge scale in response to disaster... which has left more than 74,000 dead or missing, 247,000 injured and 5m homeless. Hopes for finding more are fast dwindling. But scale of non-governmental involvement just as striking... Responding to mood, government declared 3 days of public mourning... Fast-growing middle class... did not wait for official encouragement to help out... Thousands of volunteers headed to disaster zone... Hundreds of taxis helped ferry the injured to hospitals... Government seems little inclined to deter the volunteers more rigorously. It knows that public opinion is mostly on its side. [V]olunteer groups offer refugees services ranging from psychological counselling to charging of mobile-phone batteries. [C]ombination of government and volunteer effort appears to have had good results. [T]ent areas appear clean and orderly, with adequate supplies food and clean water. [N]o reports of serious outbreaks of disease. Most refugees seem in reasonable spirits... Officials say still far from enough proper [tents]... Much of volunteer effort has involved individuals or small groups. [P]arty has begun to acknowledge more openly that may [be] a role for them. [G]overnment encouraging firms to give more generously to worthy causes. [R]esponse to this disaster might ease its fears [of NGOs]"; Economist 07 Jun 08"Climate Change: A Convenient Truth, Sadly Ignored"(Edit.16-17):-off. sum:"A deal to be done between rich and poor countries on global warming is going begging". Highlights:"[N]egotiations over replacement for Kyoto treaty... are under way in Bonn and US Congress". "Pollution Law: Trading Dirt"(42-4):-off.sum:"A controversial bill on climate change goes before Senate". Highlights:"[A] template for any future bill,.. negotiations over it provide a good indication of the horse-trading to come. [For] countries such as China and India[,] bill holds out more sticks than carrots to developing world". "Charlemagne: EU-China Relations" (66):-off.sum:"EU may find dealing with [China] trickier than it expects". Highlights:"[F]alling out between Europe and China could be in store because of climate change[: Europeans] who feel their existence threatened find it hard to forgive others who disagree... China's position is ambivalent: it is committed to tackling global warming, amid soaring carbon emissions, but also a developing country, with much growing to do. Europe... already spoiling for a carbon-tinged trade fight with China...Yet Chinese voices offer counter-argument[:] emitting ever more carbon ... partly because it has become workshop of the world". Return to Editorial:"Most developing countries are as one: almost all greenhouse gases accumulated over past two centuries... came from rich world. What is more, each person in a rich country adds far more to the build-up than someone from a poorer country does. So, China and India conclude, rich world must shoulder its responsibility for fixing the climate. Meanwhile, chorus of politicians points out that China now churning out greenhouse gases faster than any other country... Indonesia, India and Brazil are also prolific polluters. Emissions from developing countries growing so fast they are likely to swamp any reductions by rich world. [B]oth these arguments are valid. But so is another observation. It is easier to affect emissions in poor countries, since such places tend to be less energy efficient, to have adopted fewer measures for cutting pollution and to be installing more new capacity. That suggests there is a deal to be done. If rich world agrees to pay for most of any reduction in the world's emissions, developing countries will allow the cuts to be made wherever they are cheapest. That, more or less, is premise of Kyoto protocol. Rich countries cut their emissions or pay for equivalent reductions elsewhere under Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). In some ways, it has been great success. West has spent $billions capturing noxious gases, improving energy efficiency and building wind farms in developing countries. Nonetheless, scale of investment remains grossly inadequate [and] scheme gives poor reason to avoid any sort of climate-friendly regulations, including measures they could readily afford. [O]utlines of a deal are clear. Rich world should agree to increase the flow of clean investment dramatically, in exchange for a promise from fast-growing developing countries to take some steps of their own to curb emissions. [N]ot a hard sell in China and India[:] their governments are all too aware of the devastating consequences of global warming". Reference here to "Briefing: China, India and Climate Change: Melting Asia"(29-32):-off.sum:"China and India are increasingly keen to be seen to be tackling climate change; though it is dirtier, China is making a more convincing show of action". Highlights:"Chinese officials have begun sounding like converts to the climate-change cause. In late 2006 12 ministries helped produce a 415-page report on impact of global warming. It foresses a 5-10% reduction in agricultural output by 2030; more droughts, floods, typhoons and sandstorms; a 40% increase in the population threatened by plague... Impact of climate change on India, a hotter and poorer country, likely to be worse. [A]griculture will suffer more than any other country's. Assuming global temperature increase of 4.4% over cultivated areas by 2080, India's agricultural output is projected to fall by 30-40%. [R]ich-world climate activists are placing their faith in two factors that appeal to India's and China's self-interest. First is CDM, whereby... rich countries outsource their obligation to cut carbon emissions, by sponsoring carbon-cutting schemes in poor countries... Second factor that may encourage China and India to become greener is growth of indigenous alternative-energy companies. There, both can claim some remarkable successes". Conclusion of Editorial: "Chinese and Indian firms have become accustomed to the flow of funds from CDM, and would be unhappy to see it evaporate. Western countries would benefit too, thanks to the lower cost of cutting emissions abroad". Also relevant in this issue:"Economics Focus: The Infrastructure Boom"(88):-off.sum:"Record spending on infrastructure will help to sustain rapid growth in emerging economies".Highlights:"[N]ever before [roads/railways/electricity/communications/etc] spending been so large as a share of world GDP. This is partly because more countries are now industrialising than ever before, but also because China[, India,] others are investing at a much brisker pace than rich economies ever did. [E]lectricity capacity may have to surge by 140% in China and 80% in India over next decade... The infrastructure boom has global implications. Increased investment means more imports of capital equipment [and relevance to CDM?]... Not least will be negative impact on environment. An expected 75% increase in emerging economies' electricity demand over next decade will worsen air pollution and global warming"; Economist 21 Jun 08"Energy: The Future is Closer Than You Think"(Edit.17):-off.sum:"A fundamental change is coming sooner than you might think". Highlights:"[F]ailure of imagination at heart of debate about climate change[: to] use less energy [will] not solve problem unless economic growth stops at same time[- and] any efficiency saving will soon be eaten up by higher consumption per head. [I]dea that oil might run out [also] openly discussed. [A]n alternative world is taking place". Attention then drawn to surprising : Special Report: The Future of Energy (own pages 1-26)by Geoffrey Carr, which you could usefully co-read with equally special: Lester R.Brown Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization(op.cit). Report's essays/off.sums. as follows: "The Power and the Glory":-"Next technology boom may well be based on alternative energy... But which sort to back?". "Trade Winds":-"Wind power has come of age. But to make the most of it, electrical grids will have to be overhauled". "Dig Deep":-"Carbon storage will be expensive at best. At worst, it may not work". "Another Silicon Valley?":-"Rise of solar energy, in one form or another". "Beneath Your Feet":-"Geothermal could be hot". "Grow Your Own":-"Biofuels of the future will be tailor-made". "The End of the Petrolhead":-"Tomorrow's cars may just plug in". "Life After Death":-"Nuclear power is clean, but can it overcome its image problem?". "Flights of Fancy":-"The world of energy must change if things are to continue as before". Back to Edit: "[P]lans for end of fossil-fuel economy now being laid, and do not involve much self-flagellation. [P]rophets of energy technology... promise world where, at one level, things will have changed beyond recognition, but at another will have stayed comfortably the same, and may even have got better. [P]roponents of new [energy] alternatives are serious[:] investing in ideas they think will make large amounts more. [Alternatives] need to be both as cheap as (or cheaper than) and as easy to use as (or easier than) what they are replacing. [B]iofuels or batteries that will power cars in alternative future should beat petrol at today's prices. Price of oil may fall; but so will price of biofuels. Electrical energy will remain cheaper than petrol energy in almost any future, [with] tomorrow's electric cars as easy to fill from a socket as today's are from a pump. Unlike cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells,.. battery cars do not need new pipes... What matters is the nature of power stations[: t]hey, too, are more and more likely to be alternative... Wind is closing in on price of coal. Solar energy['s] most modern systems already promise wind-like prices... It would help if coal... were taxed to pay for... effects of carbon dioxide produced when it burns, but even without such a tax, already talking of alternatives that are cheaper than coal. [Current oil] price rise is driven by demand[- and ]gives alternatives a real opening... Few believe in fusion now, though uranium-powered fission reactors may be coming back into fashion. [I]dea of a hydrogen economy is also fading fast. [H]owever, wind, solar power and high-tech batteries [are] attractive... Economies of scale will develop, and armies of engineers will tweak them better and cheaper... Whether that boom will happen quickly enough to stop the concentration of carbon dioxide reaching dangerous levels is moot. But without alternative energy sources such a rise is certain. The best thing the rich world can do is encourage the alternatives by taxing carbon". Economist 02 Aug 08"The Beijing Olympics: China's Dash for Freedom"(Edit.13):-off.sum: "China's rise is cause for celebration - but despite [Olympics], not because of them". Highlights: "On balance, the award of the games has done more harm than good to the opening up of China. The big forces driving that opening are independent of games. [See also:"Briefing: China Before the Olympics: Welcome to a (Rather Dour) Party"(28-30):-off.sum:"China is keen to show its best face at the games and that face indeed better than it once was. But do not expect any dramatic slide from authoritarianism". "The Beijing Olympics: Five-Ring Circus"(46):-off.sum:"News from the Forgotten Citius, Altius, Fortius" (i.e. Latin motto meaning "Faster, Higher, Stronger"): offers brief notes on: wretched air quality, high security activities, problems for Iraq attendance. "A Special Report on the Sports Business"(unique 1-16) contains much information about Beijing Olympics in almost every essay. Here are "Titles":"off.sums": "Fun, Games and Money": "Sport has become a global business as well as a recreation for billions, says Patrick Lane. But how to make it faster, higher, stronger?" "How Do You View?":"Sport and media natural bedfellows". "Sponsorship Form":"Value of sport to other kinds of business". "Go Aigo":"How one Chinese company is making a name for itself". "Local Heroes":"Sporting labour markets are becoming global. But what about sports themselves?" "Cricket, Lovely Cricket":"And lolly, lovely lolly". "Chunnis on the Tree":"Sport and sponsorship are not always about fame and fortune". "For the Joy of It":"Despite drug scandals and other problems, sport remains wildly popular". Following relate in certain respects to Beijing Olympics: "Trade Unions in China: Membership Required" (66):-off.sum:"Global firms operating in China are being pressured to sign up with a government-affiliated union now, or pay more later". "Art for the Olympics: Signs of the Times"(84-5):-off. sum:"Visitors will have to look hard to see any interesting art in the Chinese capital. Museum shows are dull and the new foreign galleries are anxious not to offend". "The Destruction of Old Beijing: Going, Gone"(85):-review of 3 books on city: Jasper Becker City of Heavenly Tranquility: Beijing in the History of China: Oxford Univ Press/Allen Lane; Michael Meyer The Last Days of Old Beijing: Life in the Vanishing Backstreets of a City Transformed Walker&Co/Bloomsbury; Geremie R.Barmé The Forbidden City Harvard Univ Press/Profile Books.] Back to Editorial: "China globalised [in economic speed] in 80s and 90s and then accelerated to a breakneck pace after accession to WTO in 01. [At the same time,] the spread of the internet and mobile telephony have transformed society. Olympics, by contrast, [offer] the pretext of an alleged terrorist threat to impose restrictive security cordon on city and curtail visas... Chinese officials said the games would bring human-rights improvements. Opposite is true. China's people are far freer now than 30, 20, or even 10 years ago... and relative wealth has broadened horizons. But Olympics... have brought more repression. [T]here are clear limits to the march of freedom in China;.. political freedoms have been disappointingly constrained. [C]ould be first 'green' Olympics, spurring a badly needed effort to clean up [the] venues[, but] the jury is still out on whether Beijing will manage to produce air sufficiently breathable [-] result of desperate measures introduced in recent weeks. [In foreign policy,] China's leaders remain irrevocably wedded to the principle of 'non-interference' in a country's internal affairs. [N]othing wrong in China's people taking pride in either a diplomatic triumph... or a sporting one. But there is a danger. Communist Party now stakes its survival and legitimacy on tight political control, economic advance, nationalist pride. Problem with nationalism is that it thrives on competition - and all too often needs an enemy". Economist 09 Aug 08"China: Swifter, Higher, Weaker"(39-40):-highlight:"Behind the sporting glitz, anxieties about minorities and the economy... The massive security around Beijing and the authorities' strenuous efforts to keep potential protesters at bay is evidence of nervousness". Economist 23 Aug 08"Business and Water: Running Dry"(53-4):-off.sum:"Everyone knows industry needs oil. Now people are worrying about water, too". Highlights:"[W]ater is a critical lubricant of the global economy [- yet supplies] are coming under enormous strain because of the growing global population. [C]oncerns about availability of freshwater show no sign of abating. [G]lobal water consumption doubling every 20 years, [an] 'unsustainable' rate of growth. Water, unlike oil, has no substitute [and] climate change is altering the patterns of freshwater available in complex ways[, including] more frequent/severe droughts. [Industry among poor] is contaminating rivers/aquifers. [S]ubsidies for biofuel increased water-intensive crops now used for energy as well as food[, while] heavy subsidies for water in most parts of world mean often grossly underpriced - and hence squandered. [P]roblem, first and foremost for human welfare[, stressed] at annual World Water Week conference, Stockholm, [which] focused on measures to extend access to clean water and sanitation to the world's poor. [Water] also poses problem for industry [as it is] not discretionary [- and] an essential ingredient in many products... Agriculture uses the most water[, but] many other products/services depend on it [and] energy production is also water-intensive. [Its] quality matters as much as quantity [-] 90% of the rivers in China near urban areas are seriously polluted... Not all companies are sitting still[; some have already] reduced the amount of water [they use, while] activists have attacked some... Cutting water consumption can also make sense [its costs, treatment, clean-up]. Some have no choice". Economist 20 Sep 08"Global Business: In Praise of the Stateless Multinational"(Edit.20):-off.sum:"Not without its flaws, but infinitely preferable to the state-bound version". Highlights: "[T]he idealistic spirit of international cooperation [is described by interviewed executives of two outstanding] emerging-market multinational[s.] Lenovo and Arcelor Mittal are at leading edge of a new phase in the evolution of the multinational corporation"[, as argued in "Special Report on Globalisation: A Bigger World"(unique pages 1-26). Introductory essay's official summary: "Globalisation is entering a new phase, with emerging-market companies now competing furiously against rich-country ones. Matthew Bishop asks what that will mean for capitalism". Other essay titles:-off.sums:"The New Champions":-"Emerging markets are producing examples of capitalism at its best". "Ins and Outs":-"Acronyms BRIC [Brazil/Russia/India/China] out all over". "The Empire Strikes Back":-"Why rich-world multinationals think they can stay ahead of the newcomers". "Oil, Politics and Corruption":-"Bad capitalism carries its own risks". "The Rise of State Capitalism":-"Coming to grips with sovereign-wealth funds". "Cities in the Sand":-"A new sort of investment partnership". "Opportunity Knocks":-"As long as the protectionists don‛t spoil it". Back to Editorial:] "Today the goal is to create... the 'globally integrated enterprise' - a single firm in which work is sourced wherever it is most efficient. [S]enior managers will increasingly be spread around the world, which will require them to learn new tricks... Some people assume that stateless multinationals inevitably compete away standards in a race to the bottom. It is true that multinationals tend to shop around for taxes, but in other ways they are usually sticklers for good behaviour. Encouragingly, firms from emerging markets are finding that a globally integrated company needs a single culture... A globally integrated firm cannot allow corrupt practices by employees in some countries and not others, so it must outlaw them everywhere. [I]t cannot enforce religious practices/holidays/different ways of life, so it must preach tolerance. [T]he real threat comes from overly chummy links between a state and its multinationals... Rather than fear the stateless corporation, people would be wise to do all they can to make them feel at home". Also relevant:"Emerging Markets:Beware Falling BRICs"(92). Brian Halweil Farming Fish for the Future Worldwatch Report 176(Washington: Worldwatch Institute 08):-highlights of the 50-page Report's own 2-page Summary: "[P]eople are eating more seafood, either because most affordable protein... or the latest health food trend. But as demand arises, populations of both marine and freshwater species being over-exploited, resulting in stagnant or declining catches from many wild fisheries. As result, seafood shifting from last wild ingredient in diet to highly farmed commodity. Farmed seafood, or aquaculture, now provides 42% of world's seafood supply... Fish farms take more space on land/at sea... Has morphed from small-scale, artisanal pursuit into large-scale science, with innovations in feed technology, cage design, fish breeding. Farmed seafoods certain advantages over wild fish[: predictability; more productive; lower cost; expanding market]. Yet... several crises loom that may jeopardize future expansion[: fish food scarcity; rising concern on social/ecological fallout]. Poorly run fish farms can generate coastal pollution in excess feed/manure, and escaped fish/disease... [F]arms will be increasingly susceptible to disease/other stresses [-] well-known pattern in agriculture. But not all fish farming created equal. [M]ost is focused on seaweeds, shellfish, other species low on food chain... Most small in scale, rely on few inputs, many closely integrated with crop or livestock... Yet greatest growth today: large farms raising high-value, predatory fish - salmon, striped bass, tuna, shrimp - farm-fed by smaller species. We are fishing down the ocean chain so we can move up the fish-farming chain. [R]apid growth in recent decades outweighed any gains in feeding efficiency... Global appetite for farmed fish is putting unsustainable strain on world's food resources. As farmers raise more predatory species, a focus on well-designed fish farms will make critical difference. [F]armers could wean themselves off fish-based feed. [Some] redesign farms to function more like healthy aquatic ecosystems[:] high level integration greatly reduces water pollution/disease levels [+]cost-effective way recycle/clean/store water supplies. Even help rebuild wetlands and restock wild fisheries. [M]ay in fact be most hopeful trend in world food system. Aquaculture remarkably efficient in use of feed and water[; and] farmed fish still generally lower on food chain and less resource-intensive than big predatory fish in seas. Rather than contributing to environmental degradation, fish farming can be a critical way to add to global diet. Yet no guarantee aquaculture [+policy] will move wholesale in'greener' direction". Economist 07 Mar 09 "Climate Change: The Illusion of Clean Coal"(Edit.20-2):-off.sum:-"The world is investing too much cash and hope in carbon capture and storage". Highlights:"Coal,.. producing twice carbon dioxide that natural gas does, makes it a big cause of global warming. But some of the world's biggest economies rely on coal (50% of US and Germany's power, 70% of India's, and 80% of China's),.. and secure domestic sources of energy are particularly prized. [Hence, for politicians,] a cheap/reliable fuel. [H]owever, a way of reconciling coal and climate... is called carbon capture and storage (CCS) and entails [sucking] CO2 from smoke of power plants[, etc] and storing it safely underground... The technologies are already widely used in oil/chemical industries[,and there's] plenty of promising storage space... But CCS is proving easier to talk up than get going[see"Briefing: Carbon Capture and Storage: Trouble in Store"(74-5):-off.sum:"Politicians are pinning their hopes for delivery from global warming on a technology that is not quite airtight".] [N]o big power plants using [CCS since] would be much more expensive to build/run than ordinary sort. [M]ore inclined to invest in other low-carbon power sources [e.g. nuclear/solar/wind]. Inventors meantime are striving to create all manner of new technologies [biofuels/solar panels/smart-grid applications]. ["TECHNOLOGY QUARTERLY" (own 35 pages):-while all the items are summarized, following are of particular relevance: MONITOR: "Shifting Gears" Aviation (TQ 3-4):'Green' jet engines, able to power aircraft while producing fewer emissions, are under development... In Feb 09, P&W said that in tests, [their new] design had proved capable of 'double-digit' improvements in fuel efficiency and emissions, and a 50% reduction in noise. "Fuelled By Coffee" Biofuels(TQ 6): A novel form of biodiesel is derived from an unusual feedstock that is more commonly used to fuel mental activities: coffee. [T]he biodiesal is made from the leftover [coffee] grounds, which would otherwise be thrown away or used as compost. [C]omparable to the best biodiesals on the market[,] it does not divert crops or land from food production into fuel production. "Party Time!" Energy(TQ 7): May sound silly, but metallised balloons could provide an unusually cheap and effective way to generate solar electricity. [A]luminised party balloons are made from metal-coated plastic. [I]f you coat only one half of a balloon, leaving the other transparent, the inner surface of the coated half will act as a concave mirror. Put a solar cell at the focus of that mirror and you have an inexpensive solar-energy collector. [Device] costs $1 per watt of generating capacity to install [-] about the same as large coal-fired power station. CARBON CAPTURE: "Scrubbing the Skies" Environment (TQ 22-4): Removing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere could help combat climate change... Several designs are being developed, but they involve variations on the same theme. In each case air is brought into contact with a "sorbent" material, which binds chemically with CO2. [A]n easy way to increase [its] surface area is to spray a liquid sorbent into the air as a fine mist... Having absorbed CO2 from the air, the liquid would drain into a chamber where the gas would be extracted from the sorbent by a series of chemical reactions, or by applying an electric current... The sorbent can then be recycled, and the CO2 compressed into liquid form for removal... Air capture appears to be technically feasible. But the economics are still unclear, and the politics murkiest of all.] Return to Editorial: "Western governments are lavishing subsidies on CCS [hence the murkiness of "scrubbing the skies"!]. [Yet] the private sector is put off by the huge price-tag on a single CCS power plant. [T]onne for tonne, CCS looks like an expensive way of cutting carbon... A carbon price or tax, which raises the cost of emitting CO2 while leaving it up to the private sector to pick technologies, is the better approach". Economist 14 Mar 09 "Climate Change: A Sinking Feeling"(82):-off.sum:"Sea levels are rising twice as fast as had been thought". Highlights:"At a scientific conference on climate change,.. four environmental experts announced that sea levels appear to be rising almost twice as rapidly as had been forecast by UN [IPCC in 2007]. Reason for the rapid change.. is a rapid increase in the information available. [Now] the polar ice caps... have been closely monitored, and the results are disturbing. Both the Greenland and the Antarctic caps have been melting at an accelerating rate. It is this melting ice that is raising sea levels much faster than had been expected. Indeed, scientists now reckon that sea levels will rise by between 50cm and 100cm by 2100, unless action is taken to curb climate change". "Climatology: Historical Determinism" (82):-"The idea that climate change will lead to war is often raised by environment pessimists, and a meeting on the climatic past of South-East Asia... suggests it is not such an unlikely thought". Article then describes how historic information on climatic problems and warfare periods relates them on occasion. A new and globally-focused book on the serious relationship is: Gwynne Dyer Climate Wars (Random House Canada 08). The dust-cover starts with a list of the global issues from which a warmed planet would suffer: MASSIVE POPULATION SHIFTS; SPREADING EPIDEMICS; DROUGHT; RISING SEA LEVELS; FOOD SCARCITY; CRASHING ECONOMIES; POLITICAL EXTREMISM. "Electric Vehicles: Batteries Now Included"(81):-"The missing piece of the electric-car jigsaw has just turned up... The great prize in the battery world has... been a material that can both store a lot and discharge rapidly, and it is this that [two from MIT] think they have come up with". Two other related items also listed in RECESSION summary: "US and Climate Change: Cap and Binge"(Edit. 14-6):-"US politicians are at last getting to grips with global warming, but in a dangerously expensive way". "Briefing: US and Climate Change: Sins of Emission"(26-7):-"Barack Obama is keen to curb greenhouse-gas emissions with a cap-and-trade scheme. Can Congress come round to his way of thinking?" Economist 11 Apr 09"Water Rights: Awash in Waste"(Edit.13-4):-"[A]round the world, [in] many places water is becoming scarcer. Treating it as a right makes scarcity worse.Some great rivers no longer reach the sea. In many cities water is rationed. Droughts/floods are becoming more extreme. These problems demand policies. Ideally, good water use would be encouraged by charging for it , but attempts... mostly proved impossible. A more practicable alternative is a system of tradable water-use rights". The many manifestations of what now looks like global issues are set out: "Water: Sin Aqua Non"(59-61):-Highlights:"Water shortages are a growing problem, but not for the reasons most people think. [T]he amount now being withdrawn is moving dangerously close to the limit of safety - and in some places beyond it... Half the world's wetlands... were drained, damaged, or destroyed in 20th century... Climate change increases problems of water management... More water management will be needed to feed and heat a world that is already showing signs of using too much. Answer is by improving the efficiency with which water is used". Also related - and worrying - is: "Climate Change: When Glaciers Start Moving"(61):-"Tortuous UN talks on global warming receive some jolts". Return to Edit: "[M]any water problems have global causes: population growth, climate change, urbanisation and, especially, changing diets. It takes 2,000 litres of water to grow a kilo of vegetables, but 15,000 litres to produce a kilo of beef - and people are eating more meat. [Global implications:] farmers will need 60% more water to feed the 2 billion extra people who will be born between now and 2025. [G]lobally, [there's] no shortage of water. Unlike...oil, water cannot be used up[; it's] recycled endlessly, as rain, snow or evaporation. On average, people are extracting for their own use less than 10% of what falls each year. Central problem is that so much water is wasted, mainly by farmers[, who] use 75% of the world's water - usually free. [Decades of trying to price farm water ran into powerful resistance, but] there is a way out. Australian farmers have the right to use a certain amount of water free. They can sell [any/all] that right... to others, but if they want more water, they must buy it from a neighbour. [Resulting price-varied market] allocates the resources to more productive use. [When] water supplies in some areas [fell,] farmers responded by switching to less thirsty crops. Water productivity has doubled... Tradable-usage rights... can be used in rough and ready form in huge countries such as China and India[, which] depend on local trust and knowledge... Usage rights have flaws[:] at first they confirm existing patterns of use, often inefficient[,] but they would be better than what exists now". Economist 18 Apr 09"Technology and Medicine: Fixing Health Care"(Edit.13-4):-off.sum: "Technology has been a culprit behind runaway health costs. It might now help tame them". Highlights:"[D]emand for health care will only grow [globally, and rich and poor] governments are already having to adjust. The snag is the cost[, with two reasons] repeatedly: distorted payment systems.,.and a lack of proper competition. Medical device manufacturers often expect reimbursement for expensive new equipment on [strange] 'cost plus' basis, and drug companies enjoy temporary monopolies on new pills." Editorial then recommends: "Special Report on Health Care and Technology" (SR pages 1-18). Its chapters' titles and official summaries are as follows:"Medicine Goes Digital"(SR 3-4):-"The convergence of biology and engineering is turning health care into an information industry. Will be disruptive, says Vijay Vaitheewaran, but also hugely beneficial to patients". "HIT or Miss"(SR 4-6):-"Health reformers have long wanted to digitise medical records. They are getting closer". "Flying Blind"(SR 6-8):-"Digital medicine will improve medical care - and it may possibly revive drug discovery". "Getting Personal"(SR 9-11):-"The promise of quick and cheap genome sequencing". "A Doctor in Your Pocket"(SR 11-4):-"Developing countries are using mobile phones as a way of leapfrogging to personalised medicine". "Fantastic Journey"(SR 15-7):-"Medical technology is making medicine more portable, precise and personal". "Health 2.0" (SR 17-8):-"The arrival of digital medicine is already empowering patients - but will it also lead to better health?" Editorial again: "[Change is] finally under way, prompted by a host of information/communication technologies that should make health care much more portable, precise and personal. Spread of electronic medical records and emergence of a 'smart grid' for [medical information] should bring more transparency... Personal medical monitors and other devices should make it easier to treat expensive chronic diseases... Change is also being prompted by the willingness of doctors/politicians, especially in poorer countries, to apply at least some economic tests to medical spending". See: Health Care in China: Will Patients be Rewarded?"(45):-"The government's plans are still something of a mystery". "Dialysis in China: Free for Now"(45):-"How to embarrass government into providing health care". "Health Care in India: Lessons from a Frugal Innovator"(67-8):-"The rich world's bloated health-care systems can learn from India's entrepreneurs". Back to Edit:-"Britain... has championed use of basic economic appraisals[, and] Obama wants to expand comparative effectiveness studies and health technology assessments... Arrival of digital medicine promises to shake medical establishment to its roots,[handing] much more information over to patients themselves. But biggest savings will [come] from application of basic economics". Economist 02 May 09"Taiwan and [UN's] WHO: A Healthy Development"(42-3):-"Ma Ying-jeou, elected president of Taiwan last year,.. secured a long-sought breakthrough. After 12 failed attempts since 1997 to join World Health Organisation as an observer, Taiwan has been invited to take part in World Health Assembly in Geneva in May. This will be Taiwan's first participation in a UN event since it lost its seat to China 38 years ago. It represents a big concession from China... The move is the first sign that detente with China has transcended purely trade and economics... WHO membership was a priority for practical rather than political reasons... Chinese officials... have realised that blocking a country of 23m people from important forums dealing with global health hardly improves China's image as a responsible global citizen". Economist 09 May 09"Banyan: Taiwan and China"(48):-off.sum:"Peace is breaking out across the Taiwan Strait. Presumably, that is good for Taiwan". Highlights:"[A]fter a dozen failed attempts to join WHO, Taiwan at last won China's agreement to be invited to World Health Assembly, though merely as an observer. President Ma, of Kuomintang,.. has presided over the change [- having] promised a more conciliatory line... Perhaps China reckoned that obstructing Taiwan did nothing for the image China is polishing for itself as a responsible global power.[The bilateral] cross-strait agreements may prove to be the more far-reaching for Taiwan. Direct flights will more than double, to 270 a week. The two sides agreed... to allow financial firms to set up in each other's country, and Taiwan agreed to open up to Chinese investment. Until now Taiwan, which has up to $400b invested in China, allowed almost nothing in return... Already, China's purchase of a 12% stake in a Taiwanese telecoms firm, Far Eastone, marks the first big mainland investment in Taiwan since 1949, a harbinger of much more to come. [For more detail, see "Chinese Investment in Taiwan: Strait Deals"(65-6):-Highlights:"Acrimony... gives way to business deals... On 29 Apr China Mobile said that it would buy 12% of Far EasTone Telecommunications, a big Taiwanese mobile operator. Size of the deal, a mere $526m, does not begin to convey its implications. In aftermath of announcement, Taiwan's stockmarket shot up more than 15%, or about $60b in value, undeterred by rumblings... it is a sensitive area for foreign investment... Taiwan will also open up to direct Chinese investment in services, manufacturing, property, rail projects. [B]y some reckoning more than 5% of Taiwan's population now lives on the mainland in order to do business there... China tolerated [the past] asymmetry because Taiwanese provided capital and expertise that it lacked. In recent years, however, Taiwan's once-boisterous growth has ground to a halt, largely because investment and business has moved to the mainland [- and] prompted growing calls for closer cooperation with China. [R]emoval of barriers could prompt Chinese investment in many Taiwanese companies eager to do business on the mainland, including airlines, banks, shipping and technology firms". Back to Banyan:] Taiwan stands to gain hugely more from all this. Its strengths are in fields such as electronic, information technology and biotechnology... Meanwhile top Taiwanese brands will get readier access to China's huge domestic market... More mainland Chinese visitors, already 3,000 a day, will be a boost to flagging tourism. [C]hairman of [Taiwan's] Mainland Affairs Council says that economic integration will increase security by making Taiwan so valuable for China that it will think twice about jeopardising stability... For now, US is delighted at the rappochement... For now, at least, the desire of Taiwanese majority is, overwhelmingly, to keep Taiwan's sovereign arrangements - independent in fact if not law - exactly as they are". Economist 23 May 09"Banyan: May the Good China Preserve Us"(47):-off.sum:"China is enjoying its new prestige as a global economic helmsman, but it still has problems at home". Highlights-of global import:"China's leaders are at pains to show their increasing sophistication, [b]ut many Chinese think their country is having a rather good crisis. [At] G20 summit in London, President Hu Jintao was seated in the front row[, and] talk of a 'new world order' was in the air, with China at its heart... International financial crisis has become a kind of induction ceremony for China as a world power... US and China [may have to] get together to tackle the financial crisis, climate change, more[; though] China has plenty of reasons not to want a condominium. [Yet] China has been doing its bit to act the part[: a promise of $40b to IMF; signing up 'swap' agreements with nations' central banks; encouraged experiments in Hong Kong; talked of the need to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency]. So far, however, all this smacks of political posturing... China seems in no hurry to move towards full convertibility of the yuan[; and] most Chinese leaders scoff at the idea that their own policies might have contributed to the crisis. They blame over-indebted US consumers going on an unsustainable binge, leading to gaping US trade deficit. Yet the counterpart is an unsustainable Chinese export drive. [As a US economist put it, ] the two countries were as co-dependent as a dope-dealer and an addict. Now, with the US consumer laid up, the world has turned to China to take up the slack. [W]ith so many factories geared to exports, it has its own reasons for wanting to boost domestic demand[; hence] a $586b spending package. [However, Chinese] household demand is not getting any real long-term boost... If domestic demand is to grow, finance has to be liberalised to allow savers to earn an honest return and deserving companies to get finance. But this would be to challenge the state's chief powers, which is why it will happen only slowly, if at all... China's leaders will be too busy saving China to bother about running the world". Other items also related to China's economy: "Emerging Economies: Decoupling 2.0"(Edit.14):-"Biggest emerging economies will recover faster than US"; "Land Deals in Africa and Asia: Cornering Foreign Fields"(Edit.16):-"The Chinese and Arabs are buying poor countries' farms on a colossal scale. Be wary of the results". "US and Climate Change: Cap and Trade, with Handouts and Loopholes"(33-4):-"Some will argue that it will make little difference to the climate if China and India do not also curb their emissions. The bill's supporters retort that both countries will come on board only if US sets a good example". "Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcing's Third Wave"(61-3):-"China secured the right to grow palm oil for biofuel on 2.8m hectares of Congo, which would be the world's largest palm-oil plantation. It is negotiating to grow biofuels on 2m hectares in Zambia, [where Chinese farms already produce eggs. Estimate: 1m Chinese farm labourers will be working in Africa this year]". "Publishing Mergers in China: A New Binding"(67-8):-"China is one of the world's leading book publishers, measured by quantity, at least. [P]ublishing is one of the last industries in China to undergo a restructuring". "Economics Focus: The Art of Chinese Massage"(82):-"Is China overstating its true rate of growth?... Chinese statistics much more trustworthy than used to be". Economist 30 May 09:-all items include their official summaries:"China, US and the Yuan: Time for a Beijing Bargain"(Edit. 15-8):-"Sino-US economic policy needs a new start. Tim Geithner's visit to China provides an opportunity". "Twenty Years After Tiananmen: Silence on the Square" (45):-"Outside the Communist Party, memories of the 1989 massacre get hazy". "Banyan: The Party Goes On"(46):-"Who, 20 years ago, would have thought that the Communist Party could come to this?" "Chinese Firms' Foreign Investments: Sino-Trojan Horse"(66):-"Chinese firms are finding new ways to buy access to foreign resources". "Cost-Cutting in Asia: A Snip at the Price"(68):-"The recession gives parsimonious innovators [Chinese/Indian described] a chance to go global". "China's Dubious Earnings Numbers: Red Flags"(77-8):-"Investors appear to have little faith in company accounts". Economist 13 Jun 09"[US] and China Talk Climate Change: Heating Up Or Cooling Down?" (45):-off.sum:-"The big two emitters try to stop finger-pointing and save the planet". Highlights: "The two countries are by far the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases[, and] will determine whether a worthwhile global treaty to limit emissions can be concluded as planned in Copenhagen, Dec 09. The treaty is to replace the Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012. Some 180 countries will take part in the negotiations, but... China and US [form] a 'G2' that determines the global post-Kyoto agenda... Details of [their bilateral] talks are scanty,.. but progress is painstaking. [M]any Chinese [may] still feel the world's original big polluters should be the first to pay for cleaning things up. [C]limate change [is reported] emerging as the biggest issue in bilateral relations. [US] Congress remains keenly aware that potentially painful and costly [anti-emission] steps will mean little if China stays on anything approaching its current [growth] trajectory. [Yet] China points to its impressive improvements in energy efficiency and coal-plant cleanliness in recent years, and its increasingly ambitious commitments to invest in renewable energy sources. [For domestic survival,] they may adopt even more ambitious energy-efficiency targets, if not emissions limits. [Chinese energy-security expert argues that] what is needed... is a workable timetable under which US agrees to rethink restrictions on sophisticated exports to China, and Beijing reduces tariffs to encourage the import of cutting-edge green technology". For other emissions-concerned articles: "Deforestation and Carbon Credits: Seeing REDD in the Amazon"(Edit.15-6):-off.sum:"Saving rainforests needs both property rights and payments". "Briefing: The Amazon: The Future of the Forest"(27-9):-off.sum:"Brazil's government hopes that land reform in the Amazon will slow deforestation". "Conserving Forests: REDDy and Waiting" (64):-off.sum:"Some odd documents from Papua New Guinea show how hard it is to save trees". Economist 11 Jul 09"Riots in Xinjiang: Beijing's Nightmare"(Edit.14):-official summary:"The Uighurs' revolt undermines China's idea that its people will always happily trade freedom for prosperity". Highlights:"Since... the birth of the Central Asian republics, the vast swathe of China known as the Xinjiang Autonomous Region has... never been on the cards for the ethnic-Turkic Muslims of the region, who now make up slightly under half its 20m population... Beijing nevertheless fretted about the linked threats of extremist Islam and secession. Vicious race riots this week in Xinjiang's capital, Urumqi, have caused the deaths of over 150 and shown what a hash the regime has made of fostering stability[:] the bloodiest incident of unrest in China since the Tienanmen Square protests in 1989. [For details about the event, its background, and the reactions: "Briefing: The Riots in Xinjiang: Is China Fraying?"(26-8):-off.sum:"Racial killings and heavy-handed policing stir up a repressed and dangerous province".] For both the Uighurs and the Tibetans, economic development has been inseparable from immigration by ethnic-Han Chinese, 92% of China's population... Rebiya Kadeer, a Uighur business-woman, is the [new] exiled head of the Islamic Republic of East Turkestan... The Chinese have managed to persuade foreigners that the protests in Xinjiang are linked to jihadist terrorism... and last year there were several terrorist attacks... The Uighurs' resentments... inflame Muslim sentiment not just in China... but throughout the Islamic world... China has tried to make a scapegoat out of Ms Kadeer this time [but] the violence in Xinjiang was crude, racist stuff on both sides, with the Han Chinese suffering the brunt of it... China's response to Uighur revolt has been pretty standard. It poured troops in, rounding up hundreds of people and putting them behind bars... By resorting to repression, Beijing can easily contain the disruption in Xinjiang... But something just as important is: the harmony which the government espouses as China's greatest national value, and without which the regime will find it harder to survive". Economist 18 Jul 09"The Uighurs, Central Asia and Turkey: Troubles Across Turkestan"(38):-"[Turkey's] PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan [suggested] the recent violence in... Urumqi involved 'genocide'[, and] proposed a discussion of the rioting in the UN Security Council. This is a non-starter given China's power of veto, but the very idea infuriated China. Turkey's cultural, religious and ethnic links with Xinjiang make it difficult for leaders there to keep quiet. Turkey has long been a haven for disaffected Uighurs[, and relations with Beijing] are now in tatters. In contrast, most Western and Muslim countries have not seen much benefit in riling China over... Xinjiang's unrest... Central Asian countries, which are home to Turkic peoples, [have] also been muted[- and] taken a dim view of Uighur separatism... In Turkey, by contrast, Erdogan has offered a visa to Rebiya Kadeer". Economist 11 Jul 09"Riots in Xinjiang: Beijing's Nightmare"(Edit.14):-official summary:"The Uighurs' revolt undermines China's idea that its people will always happily trade freedom for prosperity". Highlights:"Since... the birth of the Central Asian republics, the vast swathe of China known as the Xinjiang Autonomous Region has... never been on the cards for the ethnic-Turkic Muslims of the region, who now make up slightly under half its 20m population... Beijing nevertheless fretted about the linked threats of extremist Islam and secession. Vicious race riots this week in Xinjiang's capital, Urumqi, have caused the deaths of over 150 and shown what a hash the regime has made of fostering stability[:] the bloodiest incident of unrest in China since the Tienanmen Square protests in 1989. [For details about the event, its background, and the reactions: "Briefing: The Riots in Xinjiang: Is China Fraying?"(26-8):-off.sum:"Racial killings and heavy-handed policing stir up a repressed and dangerous province".] For both the Uighurs and the Tibetans, economic development has been inseparable from immigration by ethnic-Han Chinese, 92% of China's population... Rebiya Kadeer, a Uighur business-woman, is the [new] exiled head of the Islamic Republic of East Turkestan... The Chinese have managed to persuade foreigners that the protests in Xinjiang are linked to jihadist terrorism... and last year there were several terrorist attacks... The Uighurs' resentments... inflame Muslim sentiment not just in China... but throughout the Islamic world... China has tried to make a scapegoat out of Ms Kadeer this time [but] the violence in Xinjiang was crude, racist stuff on both sides, with the Han Chinese suffering the brunt of it... China's response to Uighur revolt has been pretty standard. It poured troops in, rounding up hundreds of people and putting them behind bars... By resorting to repression, Beijing can easily contain the disruption in Xinjiang... But something just as important is: the harmony which the government espouses as China's greatest national value, and without which the regime will find it harder to survive". Economist 26 Sep 09"The Power of Mobile Money"(Edit.13):-off.sum:"Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could have just as big an impact". Highlights:-"[M]obile phones... in few short years became tools of economic empowerment for world's poorest. Compensate for inadequate infrastructure,.. allowing information to move more freely, markets more efficient, unleashing entrepreneurship. All has direct impact on economic growth [World Bank: extra 10 phones per 100 people in typical poor country boosts GDP by 0.8%]". More than 4 billion handsets are now in use worldwide, three-quarters in the developing world. For the major trends that are changing the current world, see also in this issue "A Special Report on Telecoms in Emerging Markets"(SR pages 1-19). Chapters' titles and official summaries: "Mobile Marvels"(SR 3-4):-"Poor countries have already benefited hugely from mobile phones. Now get ready for a second round, says Tom Standage". "Eureka Moments"(SR 4-8):-"How a luxury item became a tool of global development". "The Mother of Invention"(SR 8-12):-"Network operators in the poor world are cutting costs and increasing access in innovative ways". "Up, Up and Huawei"(SR 13-5):-"China has made huge strides in network equipment". "Beyond Voice"(SR 15-8):-"New uses for mobile phones could launch another wave of development". "Finishing the Job"(SR 18-9):-"Mobile-phone access will soon be universal. The next task is to do the same for the internet". Highlights:"The reason why mobile phones are so valuable to people in the poor world is that they are providing access to telecommunications for the very first time... The developing world's rural poor will account for most of the growth in the coming years[, and] the total reach 6 billion by 2013. Three trends in particular are reshaping the telecoms landscape. First, the spread of mobile phones in developing countries accompanied by the rise of home-grown mobile operators in China, India, Africa, Mideast that rival or exceed the industry's Western incumbents in size... Second trend is emergence of China's... telecoms-equipment-makers,.. which have entered the global stage [and] now have a growing reputation for quality/innovation... Third trend is development of new phone-based services, beyond voice calls/basic text messages, now becoming feasible because mobile phones are relatively widely available". To return to Editorial: "[A] new opportunity beckons: mobile money, which allows cash to travel as quickly as a text message... Mobile-money services [can] allow small retailers [in the developing world] to act rather like bank branches. They can take your cash, and by sending a special text message, credit it to your mobile-money account. You can then transfer money via text message to other registered users, who can withdraw it by visiting their own local shops. You can even send money to people not registered; they receive a text message with a code that can be redeemed for cash... Most successful example of mobile money is in Kenya [but] similar schemes are popular in Philippines and South Africa... Extending mobile money to other poor countries, particularly in Africa/Asia, would have a huge impact[:] faster/cheaper/safer way to transfer money than the alternatives... Mobile money also provides a stepping stone to formal financial services for billions who lack access to savings accounts/credits/insurance... Financial innovation has a bad reputation at the moment [RECESSION], because exotic derivatives were one of the causes of the