Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

Pam Woodall"The New Economy: Falling Through the Net?"The Economist 23 Sep 2000(Survey: 34-9):-this major section of an excellent Survey gives a rare overview of the present and potential effect of information technology(IT),and particularly the Internet, on Third World economies(hence its location out of chronological order). Many fear that LDCs will suffer(permanently?)from their relative lack of computers/ Internet(in US, 50% online; in Africa, 0.4%)because:(1)the first in any market can dominate it;(2)online e-commerce benefits buyers(who can compare all sources)over sellers(LDCs);(3)high-yield hi-tech investments do not go to LDCs. However, many LDCs could gain even more from IT than the rich world because:(1)LDCs can buy others’ technology and copy their best systems;(2)low communications costs and easy access to key knowledge -already being quickly applied- enables LDCs to leapfrog old technologies and former physical obstacles;(3) virtually free and unlimited information and expert advice are widely and simultaneously available(e.g. for education and problem-solving);(4)small-scale LDC companies are more economic since can now sell direct to global markets at lower cost; (5) multinationals can benefit from(i.e. invest in)low LDC labour costs in both manufacturing and services (Bangalore)by using modern global communications. As for caveats, Third World governments need to establish more policies to attract ready-made technology-based investment, and encourage it to spread (Bangalore’s success has been isolated by Indian regulations, unlike China where competition has helped IT to proliferate). Africa must still create”many of the economic and legal institutions needed for a thriving information economy “. Latin America must raise its educational standards to at least the present Asian level. East Asia is already a major source of IT equipment(a third of the region’s exports), but could do even better in Internet-related services if its regulations were eased. Singapore/South Korea are already the 4th/7th biggest Internet users, and over the next decade“the efficiency gains from IT and e-commerce will be bigger in emerging Asia than in the rich countries”. IT can indeed help LDCs catch up. How do the international community and the UN see this situation/prospect? Agence France-Presse, ”U.N. Fears Divisive Impact of the Internet”NYT 29 Jun:-at the 2000 conference to assess progress since the 1995 Copenhagen Summit on poverty and development, national and UNDP speakers expressed serious concern at the latest global facts and forecasts in the critical IT field. Their concern focussed on how Internet’s growing power risks widening differences between the world’s haves and have-nots, both between and within countries. The UNDP estimates that by 2001 there will be 700m Internet users(50m in 1997), with traffic doubling every three months and e-commerce growing 100% a year. With 88% of world users in industrial countries and 0.3% in the poorest(3b people live on less than $2 a day)this”digital divide”hardens differences of opportunity as the computer-less also lose access to technological and scientific information that is key to progress in many areas. Lack of telecommunications infrastructure is also a major impediment to reducing differences. It cannot be easily overcome with wireless technology, satellite reception and mobile phones as even these can be afforded in poor countries only by the wealthy few - who also are those most likely to have credit cards(for e-commerce)and an ability in English(used in 80% of Web sites). Corrective programs have not even been costed yet. On the other hand, at the request of the World Economic Forum(Davos), a task force of IT businessmen presented some constructive ideas on this issue to the G-7 meeting in Okinawa. John Markoff,“High-Tech Executives Urge Action on World’s Digital Divide”NYT 20 Jul:-reported that the G-7, who were discussing IT anyway, were urged to implement a set of principles, “including telecommunications and Internet deregulation, universal access to education and technical training,...support and financing for small entrepreneurs...creation of a Peace Corps-type volunteer group, the Global Digital Opportunity Corps, and...establishment of local technology community centers”. The Japanese government was going to commit $12b in loans and $3b in grants over five years to IT initiatives in the developing world, with similar commitments from all G-7 members expected. Relevant but not critical issues discussed by the executives were:(1)whether the“world income gap created by the industrial revolution[is still]the fundamental dividing line between rich and poor nations rather than the question of access to technology”; and(2)whether the“digital divide”is really“an education divide, and[IT]is only a conduit to promote education”. Economist 22 Jul:-two articles report that both China and India are being rapidly transformed by information technology. ”Wired China”(24-8):-claims China has already spent nearly $50b in“massive” investment in telecoms and data-processing hardware. Its advantage for Beijing is in tying local governments closer, and processing revenue data. It could also monitor and control citizens”much more forcefully”. A fibre-optic grid already covers China, connecting all principal cities and allowing new telephone lines to be installed at a “stunning”rate (10m in 1990, 125m today, 2m more per month). Mobile phones increased from 5m in 1995 to over 57m today. This has allowed the Internet to”surge”even faster(less than 50,000 users in 1995; 2.1m at the beginning of 1999; expected 8.9m by the end of 2000). When China joins WTO, foreign investment in this huge market will become legal, if still limited by state control, encryption limits, Internet policing and news monitoring. Constraints cannot be comprehensive(e-mail), but 17-30-year-old users are unlikely to“lead demands for democracy and a more accountable government”,being relatively unpoliticized - partly by Internet“opium”. Meanwhile to the south-west,”When India Wires Up”(39-40):-reports that PM Vajpayee is keen on information technology in spite of opposed vested interests and the need to convert from cheap programming for foreigners into an innovative and exporting society. The PM seems to be winning. Long-distance telecoms being fully deregulated and international links will also be opened up, allowing huge increases in capacity (perhaps lowering the cost of Internet access by 50%). The laying of a national optical-fibre backbone is being greatly eased, and new education policy and infrastructure will encourage the rapid expansion of computer skills. Backward states will be assisted by almost-zero duties and sales tax exemptions on IT-related equipment. Software exports of $5.7b in 2000 may be succeeded by IT revenue of $87b and exports worth $50b by 2008. While profits may be concentrated, widespread Internet access can transform the information/ bargaining power of India’s villagers. The Net is”now part of the political agenda”. Kumar Ketkar Review of Murali Patibandla, Deepak Kapur and Bent Petersen,”Import Substitution With Free Trade-The Case of India’s Software Industry”in Economic and Political Weekly(Bombay)8-14 Apr:-Ketkar offers both his summary of a major essay and his own thoughts on the Indian software industry in Foreign Policy No.119(Summer 2000):-about 1990, PM Rajiv Gandhi stressed the role of the information revolution to take India into the 21st century. Ironically, he was ridiculed for simply aping the West’s technology and lifestyle by the BJP, which forms the present government. In the interim, India’s annual software exports have increased from $130m to $3b, are expected to exceed $4b in 2001, and already employ more than 200,000 workers. In coming decade, exports are expected to increase more than tenfold. The authors note India’s software industry was able to achieve export competitiveness without any real domestic market base, and with“utterly inefficient support from input industries”. There were three reasons: (1)cheap skilled labor, thanks to Indian higher education and technology institutions; (2)widespread ability in English -all Indian higher education is in English; and(3)import substitution policies”encouraged...highly developed pockets of industry able to compete in the global economy”and promoted to export. Other Third World countries can replicate India’s success in developing high-tech industries by investing heavily in higher education, R&D, and critical infrastructure. One result for India: “a vast pool of scientific and technological talent”. But apparently still not enough: AFP”India Plans to Double IT Workers to Meet Global Demand”New York Times 05 Aug:-reports India plans to double the enrolment of students in engineering colleges to meet exploding demand for IT specialists, both from foreign firms(German, Japanese, Singaporean, British, US)and from the domestic IT industry. As one aim is to educate the poorest and remotest areas of India in IT, instruction will be in regional languages as well as English. Another aim is to introduce“electronic governance”in all states. Associated Press”China Closes Dissident Web Site”NYT 8 Aug:-shows Beijing is trying(with limited success)to protect Internet users from infection by“counter-revolutionary content”. The first dissident Web site to be shut down, the”New Culture Forum”, was described as the first within China, rather than based abroad. Beijing now faces conflict between promoting the Web’s economic benefits and preventing it from spreading heresy. Since the number of Chinese online doubles every six months, officially reaching 14.9m in June, and many users claim to have found ways to evade official monitoring and the blocking of access to foreign news and political views, official news monitoring and special policing units are being created. Reuters,”Jiang Zemin Says E-Commerce Will Transform China”NYT 22 Aug:-the Chinese president has taken a mainly”economics-first”tack. At a World Computer Congress in Beijing he”offered a ringing endorsement of the Internet... saying e-mail, e-commerce, distance learning and medicine would transform China”. The People’s Daily kindly warned the faithful recently that Internet, along with”healthy”stuff, included“much reactionary, superstitious and pornographic content”while“Enemy forces at home and abroad are sparing no effort to use this battle front to infiltrate us”. However Jiang’s views on the”battle front”were mostly positive: ”virtual reality is profoundly changing the way people produce, learn and live...We should deeply recognize the tremendous power of [IT] and vigorously promote its development...The speed and scope of its transmission have created a borderless information space around the world...The melding of the traditional economy and information technology will provide the engine for the development of the economy and society in the 21st century”. He did warn against“a flood of trash”and”problems that make people uneasy: anti-science [code for Falun Gong], false science and information that is unhealthy to the point of being downright harmful”. Jiang offered a two-edged solution: an”international Internet pact strengthening the safe management of information to(sic)give free rein to the positive uses of Internet”. Edward Wong,”China’s New Culture Starting to Take Shape, Minister Says” NYT 08 Sep:-Sun Jiazheng, Chinese culture minister, accompanying President Jiang to UN, mused on China’s place in the new global culture: although China had opened up its cultural market considerably, its modern cultural industry“has just started to take shape”and faced both opportunities and“tough challenges”. Hence the Internet industry would have to open up“gradually”, with continued government monitoring of content. Similarly, foreign media infrastructure investment and material were welcome so long as they abide by Chinese law and“tastes”. With over 17m Internet users, this anarchic new medium is especially sensitive - particularly in the context of a gradually-emerging extra-state civil society. Yet, Sun said, the government was working on a policy to encourage its growth, since “development of the Internet is definitely, absolutely a good thing”, even if Beijing is trying to control“some unhealthy content”. David E. Sanger, ”Clinton and China Leader Meet but With Little Gain”NYT 09 Sep:-Jiang himself stressed China’s role as a high-tech nation that is”plugging into the world”. To US businessmen he claimed,“We now have over 16 million netizens[sic], more than 27,000 World Wide Web sites, over 70,000 Chinese domain names and 61 million mobile phones”. Economist 09 Sep”Tapping Into Africa”(49):-this note on the current/potential impact of Internet on Africa states that of 360m Internet users worldwide, only 3.1m are thought to be in Africa, and most of these are in South Africa or north of the Sahara. However, access is spreading fast and may have tripled during 1999. “The UN has put its faith in the Internet as a means for poor countries to leapfrog stages of development. The secretary-general’s millennium report...[Annan op.cit.],speaks of building ’digital bridges’. The UN’s own plans for bridge-building includes a corps of volunteers to teach people in developing countries how to use computers, and a health network to provide hospitals and clinics with up-to-date medical information”. Internet could also help to reduce the problems caused by Africa’s appalling infrastructure (poor or non-existent road, rail and air links; undependable/unavailable community power supply; unreliable/ expensive postal systems; and a totally inadequate telephone - and therefore fax - network). Internet access can instantly provide virtually unlimited information and the ability to inter-communicate worldwide. Africa’s “void”will start to be filled if a 32,000km ”undersea fibre-optic cable system, which will form a ring of connections around the continent”, and post office terminals for the poor, become reality. Internet by itself“may well speed the pace of change”. AP”China Issues Limits on Internet”NYT 03 Oct:-new Internet rules order access providers to guard against online political activity and reinforce limits on foreign investment, but add little to how China already ostensibly regulates the Web. One of few explicit new requirements is that providers are required to keep records on users and the material they post. If they then discover prohibited material, they must remove it and turn over their records to the authorities. Those who posted the material could be prosecuted. Since Chinese Web companies already must have approval from the government to receive investment or collaboration from abroad, announcement of this may be a warning of impending enforcement. China has to allow 49% foreign investment when it joins the WTO anyway. Compulsory reporting is the only completely new rule. Craig S. Smith,”Little Anxiety Over China Web Rules”NYT 04 Oct:-”Chinese Internet entrepreneurs and their foreign backers expressed only mild concern...about the potential impact of new rules that, if enforced, could markedly slow development of the [industry]”, although companies could face fines up to...about $120,000 or be shut down. Most companies are already set up to avoid foreign ownership rules, and apply self-censorship. No foreign investor or domestic Internet content provider would want to be seen as turning in its customers. The most annoying rule is that companies providing news on education, health, medicine, etc. must get approval. Reuters,”India Moves to Cool Debate on Foreign Media”NYT 20 Oct:-since 1955 foreign newspapers/magazines can be sold but not published in India. Sushma Swaraj, a guardian of national culture and economic interests, and the information and broadcasting minister, has announced that the ban on foreign investment in this area is under review, since”the advent of the Internet had put a question mark over the policy”. In the resulting national debate, she stressed,”This is a very serious matter and needs to be deliberated at length before any decision”. The Times of India argued that”given the transformation of information and communication...there was`nothing sacrosanct’ about the 1955 resolution”, adopted in/for very different conditions. Centre for Media Studies noted that although there are already 40,000 papers/ periodicals published in India(40% in Hindi, 15% in English), they reach only a third of the billion people (English-language papers reach 5%). So much opportunity is there for the growth of media. AP”India’s Tech Boom Hits Poor Women”NYT 04 Nov:-article claims:”India’s [IT]boom is filtering down through little-known, less glamorous programs to far-flung areas-and transforming the lives of women,...poorest and least educated citizens”. Profits of the IT sector, among the world’s most developed, are clustered among elites in cities(New Delhi/Bangalore), but the technology is slowly reaching the masses, helping women take charge of their own lives, and even giving them income. Community information centers -with computers, satellite links and basic training- are set up in states as remote as Sikkim, while thousands of women get jobs (e.g. typing English documents on computers)and already comprise 20% of the IT work force. Among other benefits for women: government data(e.g.opportunities/ rights), voting, registering complaints, accessing”real-time”prices, land/health records, bank lending rates, and savings, learning about/setting up businesses. AP,”China Tightens Internet Restrictions”NYT 07 Nov:-Beijing has now published/clarified its constraints on the Internet while boosting government-controlled media. General sites must use news from the latter and get special permission to offer news from foreign media. Chat rooms may discuss only officially-approved topics. Many unwritten but expected rules are now official, speeding self-censorship and”neutral”fare trends. On the other hand, Beijing hopes to greatly expand Internet use for educational and business purposes. Reuters,”Mexico Plans to Double Number of Phone Lines”NYT 11 Nov:-forthcoming Fox government plans to make phones in Mexico a basic service like electricity by doubling the number of lines within five years. This will be a major task, given that Mexico’s population of about 100m is now served by only 11 lines per 100 people, the lowest proportion among Latin America’s big economies, and is expected to cost $13b to reach 25 lines/100. Fox experts also plan to make the Internet a basic service, and to turn post offices nationwide into complete communications centers with public computers. To achieve this, the federal communications law will need to be reformed. The state telephone system-Telmex-was privatized 10 years ago, but still lacks competition. It is Mexico’s biggest Internet services provider, and had revenues of $10b in 1999. Two proposals made would increase the powers of the telecommunications regulatory agency, and create a fund to stimulate more telephone services investment in poor areas where returns would be limited. Mark Landler,”A Nascent Internet Takes Root in Vietnam”NYT 14 Nov:-article reports that while Vietnam’s tiny Internet business has only about 100,000 subscribers, it contains keen entrepreneurs who argue that if the government were to relax its curbs on the net, the annual growth in subscribers would jump from 40% to 70%. However the government’s attitude to the Internet is similar to that of Beijing: it must be disciplined. Consequently access is expensive/slow, only the state connects subscribers to the outside world, and monitors(often restricts) data traffic for political, social or cultural reasons. It blocks access to sites it deems subversive. Nevertheless, officials say they intend to lift Internet penetration from 0.1% to the”global average”of 10% by 2010. To achieve this, they may license additional Internet service providers, as well as allow other firms to establish foreign connections. Clearly, the state attitude is forced into a process of change. Its talk about”the new economy”and software development admits the Internet is a powerful tool. For an overview of the evolving political and economic climate: Economist 11 Nov“Bye-bye, Uncle Ho”(31-3). Economist, 18 Nov”Is Syria Really Changing?”(55-6):-careful, balanced discussion of whether and how much Syria has changed with the coming to power of Bashar Assad, who has promised to modernize the country. Inter alia it states,”for all the fanfare about a computer society, Syria’s Internet remains inchoate and restricted”. AP”China Offers Look at Space Program”NYT 22 Nov:-China has released an unprecedented policy paper on its hitherto secret space program. Policy calls for boosting commercial launch services with more powerful rockets, and putting a man in orbit by 2010. These plans reflect not only an advanced IT ability, but China’s intention to be a major global player. Having already carried 27 foreign-made satellites into space since 1985, Beijing clearly plans to get a larger share of the competitive global market for commercial launches by developing a new series of cheaper, stronger rockets. On this, see: Jane Perlez,”China to Stop Selling A-Arms Delivery Systems”NYT 22 Nov. It reports”Many American companies, from cellular telephone networks to international television conglomerates, are waiting in line for satellites to be sent into orbit, and China has expressed eagerness to offer low-cost services”. Reuters,”Outsourcing of Chip Making Seen Proliferating” NYT 23 Nov:-a trend that will have a major impact on Third World IT-related industry(and hence experience) is for all elements of chip production except their design to be outsourced to developing countries. Asian plants have for many years made everything from sophisticated microprocessors to commoditised chips for the world’s computer-chip firms. The manufacturing plants(foundries), packaging and assembly plants, and computer board making have”grown by leaps and bounds”with the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry. As globalization proliferates, related outsourcing will expand, and sales for foundries and related companies are soaring. Contracts may now take place at four different stages for the same product. Two of Japan’s biggest chipmakers may be outsourcing 20-25% of all chip production in the near future. Smith,”A Chip Plant That Is Full of Symbolism” NYT 24 Nov:-construction recently began on a $1.63b joint Chinese-Taiwanese computer-chip plant -the first of four plants. This event may not only herald a gradual shift of the computer industry away from Taiwan to China, but also their greater economic integration. Taiwanese have already invested $50b in the mainland, but”China’s fast-growing market for computer chips, together with its well-educated workers,...lower wages, and its plentiful land, makes [it] a natural base for the world’s semiconductor manufacturing”. China now has six semiconductor foundries making circuit-etched silicon wafers, while a third of Taiwan’s personal computer hardware is already made on the mainland. China will soon overtake Taiwan as the world’s third-largest manufacturer of personal computer hardware(after US and Japan). “Yet almost all the chips used in PCs assembled in China are imported...something China wants to change”. Landler ”Selling Status, and Cell Phones in China”NYT 24 Nov:”Everybody in China wants to own a mobile phone. For men, it’s like having a cigarette lighter. For women, it’s like wearing an accessory”. They’re a genuine revolution. “Not only are they a way for people to sidestep China’s cumbersome terrestrial phone network, they are the status symbol of choice for a generation of Chinese”. There are more than a dozen local producers already in a highly competitive market that is“helping set the pace in the design and marketing of cellular phones.[Moreover,]when it comes to wireless China has a much greater appreciation of technology than the US”. It is estimated China already has 65m cellular users, will have 105m next year, and 155m by 2002, when it is the world’s largest market. Economist 25 Nov,”Africa’s Dreadful Telephones: Call Africa, and Wait and Wait...”(53):-in sub-Saharan Africa, 34 countries have fewer than ten telephone lines per 1000 people, and the whole system is costly and decrepit(rich countries average more than 500 lines per 1000 people). Getting a phone installed can take more than a year, 60% of installed lines are faulty, poor quality renders them virtually useless for Internet access, and calling across Africa costs 50-100 times more than calling across North America. The main reason is that governments see the systems as money-making assets for themselves and friends. In Nigeria(4 phones/1000)a mobile phone with poor service costs $1000, although reform is promised. Ghana, however, has competing line, mobile and Internet companies(mobiles cost $50 with 4-hour installation). Somali cities, with neither government nor regulations, have sheds of phone booths offering satellite contact anywhere in the world for $1/minute. Economist 02 Dec,”China’s Chip Making: A Giant Sucking Sound”(63):-much of article reports the same globally-significant trend as Smith 24 Nov above. Additional conclusions include:”China is experiencing something of a silicon rush, as foreigners and Chinese alike race to set up factories that make, assemble or design chips for computers, mobile phones and almost every other electronic device...Motorola said it would double its investment...to $1.9b - at the time, the largest -ever foreign investment in China...IBM said it would build a chip-packaging plant...and Intel has recently announced similar plans”. There are several market forces driving this boom: pent-up demand for chips in China itself(will grow 20% annually for years), e.g. 250m mobile phones by 2004(cf. Landler 24 Nov); China has/produces more, better, yet cheaper engineers than even Japan; reputedly well-serviced locations and, so far, weak intellectual property laws. “The biggest risks may be political”. Smith,”China Allows New Telecom to Start Up”NYT 04 Dec:-Beijing has granted a telecom licence to a Ministry of Railways subsidiary (with already 1m rail-sector subscribers), creating a sixth major carrier. In wireless telecom field, two mobile phone providers are competing, while three compete for the Internet and data transmission business. China already has 135m fixed-line subscribers and more than 65m mobile phone users. When China joins WTO, import duties on telecom equipment fall from a high of 35% to as low as 5%, and foreigners can own equity in relevant companies. Economist 09 Dec”The Minister of Arbitrary Power”(76):-a business-oriented sketch of Wu Jichuan, Chinese Minister of Information Industry,“most powerful man in what is likely to become the world’s biggest telecoms market”who said in regard to conflicting information from his ministry,”There are many opinions, but what matters is mine”. This”matters”globally, since there are now 70m mobile phones in China and may be 250m by 2005, making China the largest mobile-phone market in the world. It already plays an important role in the ITU and may determine global IT standards. It is therefore significant that Wu opposed any foreign participation in China’s Internet sector, although he is for now overruled by PM Zhu. Smith,”Sad Story of a Treaty: How Grinch Got to China”NYT 10 Dec:-”Within a week after [US] release of Dr. Seuss: How the Grinch Stole Christmas, videodisk copies of the film were selling on China’s streets for about $1.20 each - proof that China’s well-oiled copyright piracy machine is running smoothly despite government promises to shut it down[and recalling] difficulties China has carrying out trade agreements even as it prepares to enter the[WTO]”. China adopted the video compact disk format, so many state firms began making disk players, even for high quality digital videodisks. With anti-piracy efforts limiting other IT, compact disk makers switched to videodisks. There is now an oversupply of both disks and players, with 50m Chinese families owning players and buying/swapping disks, and driving players’ prices down to $70. (On regular films, the pirates outsell legitimate distributors about 35 to one, and have them on the streets two days after their debut in US theaters.) Quality is high -with smuggled equipment. As evidence of piratical success, Erik Eckholm,”China’s Movie-Going Masses Cheer Deep Cuts in Ticket Prices”NYT 20 Dec:-reports that a large movie chain in southwest China,”tired of screening films to empty theaters, took the unprecedented [and wickedly capitalistic] step of slashing its prices by two-thirds, to just 5 yuan, or 60 cents.” Consumers responded by swarming to the company’s 15 theaters, yielding three times the usual box-office revenue. Hearing of this miracle, theaters in many other cities also offered price cuts of 50% or more, with similar results. Not only have prices been too high for a low-income market, but the availability of cheap, pirated videodisks offered an alternative. Hence”between 1989 and 1999, the number of movie tickets sold in China plummeted and box-office revenues fell by more than two-thirds, sending the domestic film industry staggering...[Now even] film industry leaders have agreed that lower ticket prices might be a good thing”. Reuters"China Plans Manned Space Flight in Five Years"NYT 13 Dec:-further to AP 22 Nov article, Chinese media now report that an astronaut will be put into space“in the next five years”, following more unmanned spacecraft launches. China will also launch over 30 satellites between 2001 and 2005 in its plan to become“a leading player in space exploration and commerce by building mainly on its home-grown rocket and satellite program”. China had already launched 47 domestically-made satellites and established three launch sites. [Chinese space program publicity may stress science/prestige & Western media focus on its military uses; but its greatest practical value relates to its IT applications, both domestic and as a hard-currency earner.] Further to this item, Reuters,”Report Says China Launches Navigation Satellite”NYT 21 Dec:-claims China has launched a locally-made navigation satellite, carried by a Long March 3A rocket, thus completing the country’s first satellite navigation positioning system. Different sources claim it will provide guidance for the highway, railway and marine sectors, or support territorial surveys, city planning, crop assessment and disaster monitoring. Taiwan stresses its military applications. Launch is the 22nd consecutive success. Economist 16 Dec,”Mystery Bombings in Laos: Gooseflesh”(45):-describes the general political/economic situation in Laos, concluding this”poor and possibly unstable place”confronts deepening problems in both respects. Since Mar 00, Vientiane has had a succession of unexplained bomb attacks, possibly the work of a clique within the regime seeking power. The”battered” economy faces 30% inflation and a nervous tourist industry. “[T]he Internet is now accessible in some cities,[but] few people have the money necessary to get online. This country of 5m has about 30,000 private telephones and no more than 5,000 computer terminals”. But you can get Thai television. Landler,”Wall St. Goes Hunting for Treasure in China”NYT 17 Dec:-China needs expert help in managing the“initial public offering of”(i.e. for the first time selling shares in)those vast state-owned corporations slated for privatization. So far”mega-offerings”have been in two industries: telecommunications and petroleum. The article describes how six firms(three US, two Chinese, one European),bidding for the right to manage the process for the China Telecommunications Corporation, are competing for up to $300m in fees. This reflects the fact that”China Telecom”, with 130m customers, 185m phone lines and $24b in sales, could generate $10b from its stock offering. More important: “connections”seem less and less important in such deals. Simon Romero,”A Cell Phone Surge Among World’s Poor...”NYT 19 Dec:-”Cellular telephones may be an increasingly popular convenience in...prosperous countries. But demand is growing even faster in the world’s poor nations...where wireless phones are considered a necessity for those who can afford them”. Brazil has over 15m wireless subscribers. Moreover, as in Haiti, they are one of the few systems that works reliably. Less than 1% of 8m Haitians have conventional phones, with 400,000 on the(sometimes five-year)waiting list. Hence the number of mobile subscribers climbed 150% in 1999, to about 25,000 - over one-third of all phone customers. UN’s ITU figures show this situation is found in many poor countries. In some Latin American countries, wireless subscribers now outnumber users of regular phones. In Paraguay they account for 60% of all subscribers, having increased 88% last year to 436,000. In Venezuela 57% of subscribers use mobile phones. Africa’s wireless growth rate was 116% in 1999. Zimbabwe’s growth was highest at over 800% to 174,000. In Botswana, Rwanda, Ivory Coast wireless already exceeds regular phones. Reasons: in most cases existing infrastructure terrible; wireless cost has declined to less than $600; perhaps most important is support from public officials since less political controversy (Vietnam, Pakistan, Paraguay, Sierra Leone, Haiti). Wireless networks can even operate ”without the basic structures of commerce”(Congo, Madagascar, Guinea). Since metered service is often not practical, payment systems often involve prepaid service cards. Shows that Third World areas are adopting some technologies(IT)faster than others. While having only about 5% of Internet hub computers, they had about 40% of world mobile phone lines in 1999(up from 20% in 1995) - with equivalent impacts. Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 2003):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] the best political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints, tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - then the problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field' between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting the poor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberal rather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles show where and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White' Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy. Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 2006(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation' of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards are most ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation' has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - now building their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is looking politically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP] growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic] prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans] more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus] 370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level". Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rights and democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes"; The Economist 29 Apr 06"African Poverty: The Magnificant Seven"(51-2):-"How a few simple reforms can lift African villages out of poverty... UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)(op.cit.) set such targets as halving proportion of people living on less than $1/day by 2015. Other continents same targets, but most egregious examples of poverty, poor health and underdevelopment usually found in Africa... World Bank-IMF report[:] African countries not doing enough to meet their targets on poverty. UNICEF still gloomier[:] in Africa over 25% children under five still underweight, 'catastrophe for development' [and] in east/southern Africa number underweight actually increased. [T]his sort of statistic fires up Jeffrey Sachs(op.cit.), head of Millennium Project, [who contends] Africa's leap forward must begin... in parched and pestilential villages where up to 80% of poor Africans actually live. To this end, Sachs has set up 12 "research villages" in 10 African countries(map) to pioneer models of development that can be replicated by other villages in future. Another 66 villages added to experiment in clusters around original 12. Hope is for 1,000 such villages by 2009, with exponential growth thereafter. Each village will receive practical help from Project [at] $250/person over five years...Project trying to show how few simple reforms, seven in all, can substantially improve lives and provide livelihoods. These are: fertiliser and seed to improve food yield; anti-malarial bed nets; improved water sources; diversification from staple into cash crops; school feeding program; deworming for all; and introduction of new technologies, such as energy-saving stoves/mobile phones. [In] first Millennium village,.. incidence of malaria dropped by at least 50% since...bed nets. Food yield has more than doubled [and] school feeding program has [raised students'] exam results. [Signs of various improvements in] economic activity as well... Sachs concedes seven reforms can, in short term at least, be repeated only with 'resources from the outside'. This makes model unduly dependent on foreign aid[, but] there is hardly a better investment"; Economist 23 Sep 06"Technology Leapfrogs: Behind the Bleeding Edge"(Edit.16):-"[S]ome cases, particularly in developing world, when technological progress takes form of a leapfrog [-] adopting a new technology directly and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions... By far best-known example is that of mobile phones in developing world. Fixed-line networks poor or non-existent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones. Number of mobile phones now far outstrips number of fixed-line telephones in China/India/sub-Saharan Africa [Technology Quarterly(TQ) summary on mobile phones-PCs follows]. By very nature, mobile networks far easier/faster/cheaper to deploy than fixed-line networks. [Another leapfrog:] more energy-efficient light-emitting diodes (LEDS)[, which] could have [great] impact in parts of developing world that lack mains power/electric lighting. LEDS' greater energy efficiency makes it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day [TQ LEDS-summaries follow]. So prospect of another leapfrog, as rural poor skip over electric grids and straight to a world of energy-efficient appliances run using local 'micropower' sources. Other leapfrogs include embrace by China/Brazil of open-source softwear; China's plan to build series of 'eco-cities' from scratch based on new green technologies [TQ eco-cities summary follows]. Being behind 'bleeding edge' of technological development can sometimes be good thing[:] early versions of a technology...can be avoided... Leapfrog technologies can also spread faster, as do not face competition from entrenched earlier systems. And leapfrogging straight to green technology means no need to dispose of the old, dirty one... Lesson [:] wrong to assume developing countries will follow same technological course as developed.[If] anticipate/facilitate leapfrogging, can prosper as result. "Splitting the Digital Difference" Computing: A variety of novel approaches aim to bridge the gap between mobile phones and PSs in the developing world (3-4 in 23 Sep 06; all items in TQ chapter)."Visions of Ecopolis" Technology and the Environment: China has ambitious plans to build a model 'eco-city' near Shanghai. how green will it be?(20-3). "An Even Brighter Idea" Lighting Technology: Light bulb is synonymous with invention. But, as this case history explains, it may lose out to the light-emitting diode, which is better in many ways. 'Light bulbs are among last devices that use vacuum tubes, an old technology that has been replaced in radios and most televisions'(26-8)."Lighting Up the World" Greatest impact of LED-based lighting could be in developing countries, where can be powered by batteries or solar panels(28).