|
|
| by Christopher
Spencer |
Former Senior
Advisor International Organizations, Canadian Department of
Foreign Affairs and International Trade |
| Updated: 20 FEB
10 | |
Pam Woodall"The New Economy: Falling Through the Net?"The Economist 23 Sep 2000(Survey: 34-9):-this major section of an excellent Survey gives a rare overview of the present and potential effect of
information technology(IT),and particularly the Internet, on Third World economies(hence its location out
of chronological order). Many fear that LDCs will suffer(permanently?)from their relative lack of
computers/ Internet(in US, 50% online; in Africa, 0.4%)because:(1)the first in any market can dominate
it;(2)online e-commerce benefits buyers(who can compare all sources)over sellers(LDCs);(3)high-yield
hi-tech investments do not go to LDCs. However, many LDCs could gain even more from IT than the rich
world because:(1)LDCs can buy others’ technology and copy their best systems;(2)low communications
costs and easy access to key knowledge -already being quickly applied- enables LDCs to leapfrog old
technologies and former physical obstacles;(3) virtually free and unlimited information and expert advice
are widely and simultaneously available(e.g. for education and problem-solving);(4)small-scale LDC
companies are more economic since can now sell direct to global markets at lower cost; (5) multinationals
can benefit from(i.e. invest in)low LDC labour costs in both manufacturing and services (Bangalore)by
using modern global communications. As for caveats, Third World governments need to establish more
policies to attract ready-made technology-based investment, and encourage it to spread (Bangalore’s
success has been isolated by Indian regulations, unlike China where competition has helped IT to
proliferate). Africa must still create”many of the economic and legal institutions needed for a thriving
information economy “. Latin America must raise its educational standards to at least the present Asian
level. East Asia is already a major source of IT equipment(a third of the region’s exports), but could do
even better in Internet-related services if its regulations were eased. Singapore/South Korea are already
the 4th/7th biggest Internet users, and over the next decade“the efficiency gains from IT and e-commerce
will be bigger in emerging Asia than in the rich countries”. IT can indeed help LDCs catch up. How do the
international community and the UN see this situation/prospect? Agence France-Presse, ”U.N. Fears
Divisive Impact of the Internet”NYT 29 Jun:-at the 2000 conference to assess progress since the 1995
Copenhagen Summit on poverty and development, national and UNDP speakers expressed serious
concern at the latest global facts and forecasts in the critical IT field. Their concern focussed on how
Internet’s growing power risks widening differences between the world’s haves and have-nots, both
between and within countries. The UNDP estimates that by 2001 there will be 700m Internet users(50m
in 1997), with traffic doubling every three months and e-commerce growing 100% a year. With 88% of
world users in industrial countries and 0.3% in the poorest(3b people live on less than $2 a day)this”digital
divide”hardens differences of opportunity as the computer-less also lose access to technological and
scientific information that is key to progress in many areas. Lack of telecommunications infrastructure
is also a major impediment to reducing differences. It cannot be easily overcome with wireless
technology, satellite reception and mobile phones as even these can be afforded in poor countries only
by the wealthy few - who also are those most likely to have credit cards(for e-commerce)and an ability in
English(used in 80% of Web sites). Corrective programs have not even been costed yet. On the other
hand, at the request of the World Economic Forum(Davos), a task force of IT businessmen presented
some constructive ideas on this issue to the G-7 meeting in Okinawa. John Markoff,“High-Tech
Executives Urge Action on World’s Digital Divide”NYT 20 Jul:-reported that the G-7, who were discussing
IT anyway, were urged to implement a set of principles, “including telecommunications and Internet
deregulation, universal access to education and technical training,...support and financing for small
entrepreneurs...creation of a Peace Corps-type volunteer group, the Global Digital Opportunity Corps,
and...establishment of local technology community centers”. The Japanese government was going to
commit $12b in loans and $3b in grants over five years to IT initiatives in the developing world, with
similar commitments from all G-7 members expected. Relevant but not critical issues discussed by the
executives were:(1)whether the“world income gap created by the industrial revolution[is still]the
fundamental dividing line between rich and poor nations rather than the question of access to
technology”; and(2)whether the“digital divide”is really“an education divide, and[IT]is only a conduit to
promote education”. Economist 22 Jul:-two articles report that both China and India are being rapidly
transformed by information technology. ”Wired China”(24-8):-claims China has already spent nearly $50b
in“massive” investment in telecoms and data-processing hardware. Its advantage for Beijing is in tying
local governments closer, and processing revenue data. It could also monitor and control citizens”much
more forcefully”. A fibre-optic grid already covers China, connecting all principal cities and allowing new
telephone lines to be installed at a “stunning”rate (10m in 1990, 125m today, 2m more per month). Mobile
phones increased from 5m in 1995 to over 57m today. This has allowed the Internet to”surge”even
faster(less than 50,000 users in 1995; 2.1m at the beginning of 1999; expected 8.9m by the end of 2000).
When China joins WTO, foreign investment in this huge market will become legal, if still limited by state
control, encryption limits, Internet policing and news monitoring. Constraints cannot be comprehensive(e-mail), but 17-30-year-old users are unlikely to“lead demands for democracy and a more accountable
government”,being relatively unpoliticized - partly by Internet“opium”. Meanwhile to the south-west,”When India Wires Up”(39-40):-reports that PM Vajpayee is keen on information technology in spite
of opposed vested interests and the need to convert from cheap programming for foreigners into an
innovative and exporting society. The PM seems to be winning. Long-distance telecoms being fully
deregulated and international links will also be opened up, allowing huge increases in capacity (perhaps
lowering the cost of Internet access by 50%). The laying of a national optical-fibre backbone is being
greatly eased, and new education policy and infrastructure will encourage the rapid expansion of
computer skills. Backward states will be assisted by almost-zero duties and sales tax exemptions on IT-related equipment. Software exports of $5.7b in 2000 may be succeeded by IT revenue of $87b and exports
worth $50b by 2008. While profits may be concentrated, widespread Internet access can transform the
information/ bargaining power of India’s villagers. The Net is”now part of the political agenda”. Kumar
Ketkar Review of Murali Patibandla, Deepak Kapur and Bent Petersen,”Import Substitution With Free
Trade-The Case of India’s Software Industry”in Economic and Political Weekly(Bombay)8-14 Apr:-Ketkar
offers both his summary of a major essay and his own thoughts on the Indian software industry in Foreign
Policy No.119(Summer 2000):-about 1990, PM Rajiv Gandhi stressed the role of the information revolution
to take India into the 21st century. Ironically, he was ridiculed for simply aping the West’s technology and
lifestyle by the BJP, which forms the present government. In the interim, India’s annual software exports
have increased from $130m to $3b, are expected to exceed $4b in 2001, and already employ more than
200,000 workers. In coming decade, exports are expected to increase more than tenfold. The authors note
India’s software industry was able to achieve export competitiveness without any real domestic market
base, and with“utterly inefficient support from input industries”. There were three reasons: (1)cheap
skilled labor, thanks to Indian higher education and technology institutions; (2)widespread ability in
English -all Indian higher education is in English; and(3)import substitution policies”encouraged...highly
developed pockets of industry able to compete in the global economy”and promoted to export. Other
Third World countries can replicate India’s success in developing high-tech industries by investing
heavily in higher education, R&D, and critical infrastructure. One result for India: “a vast pool of scientific
and technological talent”. But apparently still not enough: AFP”India Plans to Double IT Workers to Meet
Global Demand”New York Times 05 Aug:-reports India plans to double the enrolment of students in
engineering colleges to meet exploding demand for IT specialists, both from foreign firms(German,
Japanese, Singaporean, British, US)and from the domestic IT industry. As one aim is to educate the
poorest and remotest areas of India in IT, instruction will be in regional languages as well as English.
Another aim is to introduce“electronic governance”in all states. Associated Press”China Closes Dissident
Web Site”NYT 8 Aug:-shows Beijing is trying(with limited success)to protect Internet users from infection
by“counter-revolutionary content”. The first dissident Web site to be shut down, the”New Culture Forum”,
was described as the first within China, rather than based abroad. Beijing now faces conflict between
promoting the Web’s economic benefits and preventing it from spreading heresy. Since the number of
Chinese online doubles every six months, officially reaching 14.9m in June, and many users claim to have
found ways to evade official monitoring and the blocking of access to foreign news and political views,
official news monitoring and special policing units are being created. Reuters,”Jiang Zemin Says E-Commerce Will Transform China”NYT 22 Aug:-the Chinese president has taken a mainly”economics-first”tack. At a World Computer Congress in Beijing he”offered a ringing endorsement of the Internet...
saying e-mail, e-commerce, distance learning and medicine would transform China”. The People’s Daily
kindly warned the faithful recently that Internet, along with”healthy”stuff, included“much reactionary,
superstitious and pornographic content”while“Enemy forces at home and abroad are sparing no effort
to use this battle front to infiltrate us”. However Jiang’s views on the”battle front”were mostly positive:
”virtual reality is profoundly changing the way people produce, learn and live...We should deeply
recognize the tremendous power of [IT] and vigorously promote its development...The speed and scope
of its transmission have created a borderless information space around the world...The melding of the
traditional economy and information technology will provide the engine for the development of the
economy and society in the 21st century”. He did warn against“a flood of trash”and”problems that make
people uneasy: anti-science [code for Falun Gong], false science and information that is unhealthy to the
point of being downright harmful”. Jiang offered a two-edged solution: an”international Internet pact
strengthening the safe management of information to(sic)give free rein to the positive uses of Internet”.
Edward Wong,”China’s New Culture Starting to Take Shape, Minister Says” NYT 08 Sep:-Sun Jiazheng,
Chinese culture minister, accompanying President Jiang to UN, mused on China’s place in the new global
culture: although China had opened up its cultural market considerably, its modern cultural industry“has
just started to take shape”and faced both opportunities and“tough challenges”. Hence the Internet
industry would have to open up“gradually”, with continued government monitoring of content. Similarly,
foreign media infrastructure investment and material were welcome so long as they abide by Chinese law
and“tastes”. With over 17m Internet users, this anarchic new medium is especially sensitive - particularly
in the context of a gradually-emerging extra-state civil society. Yet, Sun said, the government was working
on a policy to encourage its growth, since “development of the Internet is definitely, absolutely a good
thing”, even if Beijing is trying to control“some unhealthy content”. David E. Sanger, ”Clinton and China
Leader Meet but With Little Gain”NYT 09 Sep:-Jiang himself stressed China’s role as a high-tech nation
that is”plugging into the world”. To US businessmen he claimed,“We now have over 16 million
netizens[sic], more than 27,000 World Wide Web sites, over 70,000 Chinese domain names and 61 million
mobile phones”. Economist 09 Sep”Tapping Into Africa”(49):-this note on the current/potential impact of
Internet on Africa states that of 360m Internet users worldwide, only 3.1m are thought to be in Africa, and
most of these are in South Africa or north of the Sahara. However, access is spreading fast and may have
tripled during 1999. “The UN has put its faith in the Internet as a means for poor countries to leapfrog
stages of development. The secretary-general’s millennium report...[Annan op.cit.],speaks of building
’digital bridges’. The UN’s own plans for bridge-building includes a corps of volunteers to teach people
in developing countries how to use computers, and a health network to provide hospitals and clinics with
up-to-date medical information”. Internet could also help to reduce the problems caused by Africa’s
appalling infrastructure (poor or non-existent road, rail and air links; undependable/unavailable
community power supply; unreliable/ expensive postal systems; and a totally inadequate telephone - and
therefore fax - network). Internet access can instantly provide virtually unlimited information and the
ability to inter-communicate worldwide. Africa’s “void”will start to be filled if a 32,000km ”undersea fibre-optic cable system, which will form a ring of connections around the continent”, and post office terminals
for the poor, become reality. Internet by itself“may well speed the pace of change”. AP”China Issues
Limits on Internet”NYT 03 Oct:-new Internet rules order access providers to guard against online political
activity and reinforce limits on foreign investment, but add little to how China already ostensibly regulates
the Web. One of few explicit new requirements is that providers are required to keep records on users and
the material they post. If they then discover prohibited material, they must remove it and turn over their
records to the authorities. Those who posted the material could be prosecuted. Since Chinese Web
companies already must have approval from the government to receive investment or collaboration from
abroad, announcement of this may be a warning of impending enforcement. China has to allow 49%
foreign investment when it joins the WTO anyway. Compulsory reporting is the only completely new rule.
Craig S. Smith,”Little Anxiety Over China Web Rules”NYT 04 Oct:-”Chinese Internet entrepreneurs and
their foreign backers expressed only mild concern...about the potential impact of new rules that, if
enforced, could markedly slow development of the [industry]”, although companies could face fines up
to...about $120,000 or be shut down. Most companies are already set up to avoid foreign ownership rules,
and apply self-censorship. No foreign investor or domestic Internet content provider would want to be
seen as turning in its customers. The most annoying rule is that companies providing news on education,
health, medicine, etc. must get approval. Reuters,”India Moves to Cool Debate on Foreign Media”NYT 20
Oct:-since 1955 foreign newspapers/magazines can be sold but not published in India. Sushma Swaraj,
a guardian of national culture and economic interests, and the information and broadcasting minister, has
announced that the ban on foreign investment in this area is under review, since”the advent of the Internet
had put a question mark over the policy”. In the resulting national debate, she stressed,”This is a very
serious matter and needs to be deliberated at length before any decision”. The Times of India argued
that”given the transformation of information and communication...there was`nothing sacrosanct’ about
the 1955 resolution”, adopted in/for very different conditions. Centre for Media Studies noted that
although there are already 40,000 papers/ periodicals published in India(40% in Hindi, 15% in English),
they reach only a third of the billion people (English-language papers reach 5%). So much opportunity is
there for the growth of media. AP”India’s Tech Boom Hits Poor Women”NYT 04 Nov:-article
claims:”India’s [IT]boom is filtering down through little-known, less glamorous programs to far-flung
areas-and transforming the lives of women,...poorest and least educated citizens”. Profits of the IT sector,
among the world’s most developed, are clustered among elites in cities(New Delhi/Bangalore), but the
technology is slowly reaching the masses, helping women take charge of their own lives, and even giving
them income. Community information centers -with computers, satellite links and basic training- are set
up in states as remote as Sikkim, while thousands of women get jobs (e.g. typing English documents on
computers)and already comprise 20% of the IT work force. Among other benefits for women: government
data(e.g.opportunities/ rights), voting, registering complaints, accessing”real-time”prices, land/health
records, bank lending rates, and savings, learning about/setting up businesses. AP,”China Tightens
Internet Restrictions”NYT 07 Nov:-Beijing has now published/clarified its constraints on the Internet while
boosting government-controlled media. General sites must use news from the latter and get special
permission to offer news from foreign media. Chat rooms may discuss only officially-approved topics.
Many unwritten but expected rules are now official, speeding self-censorship and”neutral”fare trends. On
the other hand, Beijing hopes to greatly expand Internet use for educational and business purposes.
Reuters,”Mexico Plans to Double Number of Phone Lines”NYT 11 Nov:-forthcoming Fox government
plans to make phones in Mexico a basic service like electricity by doubling the number of lines within five
years. This will be a major task, given that Mexico’s population of about 100m is now served by only 11
lines per 100 people, the lowest proportion among Latin America’s big economies, and is expected to cost
$13b to reach 25 lines/100. Fox experts also plan to make the Internet a basic service, and to turn post
offices nationwide into complete communications centers with public computers. To achieve this, the
federal communications law will need to be reformed. The state telephone system-Telmex-was privatized
10 years ago, but still lacks competition. It is Mexico’s biggest Internet services provider, and had
revenues of $10b in 1999. Two proposals made would increase the powers of the telecommunications
regulatory agency, and create a fund to stimulate more telephone services investment in poor areas where
returns would be limited. Mark Landler,”A Nascent Internet Takes Root in Vietnam”NYT 14 Nov:-article
reports that while Vietnam’s tiny Internet business has only about 100,000 subscribers, it contains keen
entrepreneurs who argue that if the government were to relax its curbs on the net, the annual growth in
subscribers would jump from 40% to 70%. However the government’s attitude to the Internet is similar
to that of Beijing: it must be disciplined. Consequently access is expensive/slow, only the state connects
subscribers to the outside world, and monitors(often restricts) data traffic for political, social or cultural
reasons. It blocks access to sites it deems subversive. Nevertheless, officials say they intend to lift
Internet penetration from 0.1% to the”global average”of 10% by 2010. To achieve this, they may license
additional Internet service providers, as well as allow other firms to establish foreign connections. Clearly,
the state attitude is forced into a process of change. Its talk about”the new economy”and software
development admits the Internet is a powerful tool. For an overview of the evolving political and economic
climate: Economist 11 Nov“Bye-bye, Uncle Ho”(31-3). Economist, 18 Nov”Is Syria Really Changing?”(55-6):-careful, balanced discussion of whether and how much Syria has changed with the coming to power
of Bashar Assad, who has promised to modernize the country. Inter alia it states,”for all the fanfare about
a computer society, Syria’s Internet remains inchoate and restricted”. AP”China Offers Look at Space
Program”NYT 22 Nov:-China has released an unprecedented policy paper on its hitherto secret space
program. Policy calls for boosting commercial launch services with more powerful rockets, and putting
a man in orbit by 2010. These plans reflect not only an advanced IT ability, but China’s intention to be a
major global player. Having already carried 27 foreign-made satellites into space since 1985, Beijing
clearly plans to get a larger share of the competitive global market for commercial launches by developing
a new series of cheaper, stronger rockets. On this, see: Jane Perlez,”China to Stop Selling A-Arms
Delivery Systems”NYT 22 Nov. It reports”Many American companies, from cellular telephone networks
to international television conglomerates, are waiting in line for satellites to be sent into orbit, and China
has expressed eagerness to offer low-cost services”. Reuters,”Outsourcing of Chip Making Seen
Proliferating” NYT 23 Nov:-a trend that will have a major impact on Third World IT-related industry(and
hence experience) is for all elements of chip production except their design to be outsourced to
developing countries. Asian plants have for many years made everything from sophisticated
microprocessors to commoditised chips for the world’s computer-chip firms. The manufacturing
plants(foundries), packaging and assembly plants, and computer board making have”grown by leaps and
bounds”with the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry. As globalization proliferates, related
outsourcing will expand, and sales for foundries and related companies are soaring. Contracts may now
take place at four different stages for the same product. Two of Japan’s biggest chipmakers may be
outsourcing 20-25% of all chip production in the near future. Smith,”A Chip Plant That Is Full of
Symbolism” NYT 24 Nov:-construction recently began on a $1.63b joint Chinese-Taiwanese computer-chip
plant -the first of four plants. This event may not only herald a gradual shift of the computer industry away
from Taiwan to China, but also their greater economic integration. Taiwanese have already invested $50b
in the mainland, but”China’s fast-growing market for computer chips, together with its well-educated
workers,...lower wages, and its plentiful land, makes [it] a natural base for the world’s semiconductor
manufacturing”. China now has six semiconductor foundries making circuit-etched silicon wafers, while
a third of Taiwan’s personal computer hardware is already made on the mainland. China will soon
overtake Taiwan as the world’s third-largest manufacturer of personal computer hardware(after US and
Japan). “Yet almost all the chips used in PCs assembled in China are imported...something China wants
to change”. Landler ”Selling Status, and Cell Phones in China”NYT 24 Nov:”Everybody in China wants
to own a mobile phone. For men, it’s like having a cigarette lighter. For women, it’s like wearing an
accessory”. They’re a genuine revolution. “Not only are they a way for people to sidestep China’s
cumbersome terrestrial phone network, they are the status symbol of choice for a generation of Chinese”.
There are more than a dozen local producers already in a highly competitive market that is“helping set
the pace in the design and marketing of cellular phones.[Moreover,]when it comes to wireless China has
a much greater appreciation of technology than the US”. It is estimated China already has 65m cellular
users, will have 105m next year, and 155m by 2002, when it is the world’s largest market. Economist 25
Nov,”Africa’s Dreadful Telephones: Call Africa, and Wait and Wait...”(53):-in sub-Saharan Africa, 34
countries have fewer than ten telephone lines per 1000 people, and the whole system is costly and
decrepit(rich countries average more than 500 lines per 1000 people). Getting a phone installed can take
more than a year, 60% of installed lines are faulty, poor quality renders them virtually useless for Internet
access, and calling across Africa costs 50-100 times more than calling across North America. The main
reason is that governments see the systems as money-making assets for themselves and friends. In
Nigeria(4 phones/1000)a mobile phone with poor service costs $1000, although reform is promised.
Ghana, however, has competing line, mobile and Internet companies(mobiles cost $50 with 4-hour
installation). Somali cities, with neither government nor regulations, have sheds of phone booths offering
satellite contact anywhere in the world for $1/minute. Economist 02 Dec,”China’s Chip Making: A Giant
Sucking Sound”(63):-much of article reports the same globally-significant trend as Smith 24 Nov above.
Additional conclusions include:”China is experiencing something of a silicon rush, as foreigners and
Chinese alike race to set up factories that make, assemble or design chips for computers, mobile phones
and almost every other electronic device...Motorola said it would double its investment...to $1.9b - at the
time, the largest -ever foreign investment in China...IBM said it would build a chip-packaging plant...and
Intel has recently announced similar plans”. There are several market forces driving this boom: pent-up
demand for chips in China itself(will grow 20% annually for years), e.g. 250m mobile phones by 2004(cf.
Landler 24 Nov); China has/produces more, better, yet cheaper engineers than even Japan; reputedly well-serviced locations and, so far, weak intellectual property laws. “The biggest risks may be political”.
Smith,”China Allows New Telecom to Start Up”NYT 04 Dec:-Beijing has granted a telecom licence to a
Ministry of Railways subsidiary (with already 1m rail-sector subscribers), creating a sixth major carrier.
In wireless telecom field, two mobile phone providers are competing, while three compete for the Internet
and data transmission business. China already has 135m fixed-line subscribers and more than 65m
mobile phone users. When China joins WTO, import duties on telecom equipment fall from a high of 35%
to as low as 5%, and foreigners can own equity in relevant companies. Economist 09 Dec”The Minister
of Arbitrary Power”(76):-a business-oriented sketch of Wu Jichuan, Chinese Minister of Information
Industry,“most powerful man in what is likely to become the world’s biggest telecoms market”who said
in regard to conflicting information from his ministry,”There are many opinions, but what matters is mine”.
This”matters”globally, since there are now 70m mobile phones in China and may be 250m by 2005,
making China the largest mobile-phone market in the world. It already plays an important role in the ITU
and may determine global IT standards. It is therefore significant that Wu opposed any foreign
participation in China’s Internet sector, although he is for now overruled by PM Zhu. Smith,”Sad Story of
a Treaty: How Grinch Got to China”NYT 10 Dec:-”Within a week after [US] release of Dr. Seuss: How the
Grinch Stole Christmas, videodisk copies of the film were selling on China’s streets for about $1.20 each -
proof that China’s well-oiled copyright piracy machine is running smoothly despite government promises
to shut it down[and recalling] difficulties China has carrying out trade agreements even as it prepares to
enter the[WTO]”. China adopted the video compact disk format, so many state firms began making disk
players, even for high quality digital videodisks. With anti-piracy efforts limiting other IT, compact disk
makers switched to videodisks. There is now an oversupply of both disks and players, with 50m Chinese
families owning players and buying/swapping disks, and driving players’ prices down to $70. (On regular
films, the pirates outsell legitimate distributors about 35 to one, and have them on the streets two days
after their debut in US theaters.) Quality is high -with smuggled equipment. As evidence of piratical
success, Erik Eckholm,”China’s Movie-Going Masses Cheer Deep Cuts in Ticket Prices”NYT 20 Dec:-reports that a large movie chain in southwest China,”tired of screening films to empty theaters, took the
unprecedented [and wickedly capitalistic] step of slashing its prices by two-thirds, to just 5 yuan, or 60
cents.” Consumers responded by swarming to the company’s 15 theaters, yielding three times the usual
box-office revenue. Hearing of this miracle, theaters in many other cities also offered price cuts of 50%
or more, with similar results. Not only have prices been too high for a low-income market, but the
availability of cheap, pirated videodisks offered an alternative. Hence”between 1989 and 1999, the number
of movie tickets sold in China plummeted and box-office revenues fell by more than two-thirds, sending
the domestic film industry staggering...[Now even] film industry leaders have agreed that lower ticket
prices might be a good thing”. Reuters"China Plans Manned Space Flight in Five Years"NYT 13 Dec:-further to AP 22 Nov article, Chinese media now report that an astronaut will be put into space“in the next
five years”, following more unmanned spacecraft launches. China will also launch over 30 satellites
between 2001 and 2005 in its plan to become“a leading player in space exploration and commerce by
building mainly on its home-grown rocket and satellite program”. China had already launched 47
domestically-made satellites and established three launch sites. [Chinese space program publicity may
stress science/prestige & Western media focus on its military uses; but its greatest practical value relates
to its IT applications, both domestic and as a hard-currency earner.] Further to this item, Reuters,”Report
Says China Launches Navigation Satellite”NYT 21 Dec:-claims China has launched a locally-made
navigation satellite, carried by a Long March 3A rocket, thus completing the country’s first satellite
navigation positioning system. Different sources claim it will provide guidance for the highway, railway
and marine sectors, or support territorial surveys, city planning, crop assessment and disaster
monitoring. Taiwan stresses its military applications. Launch is the 22nd consecutive success. Economist
16 Dec,”Mystery Bombings in Laos: Gooseflesh”(45):-describes the general political/economic situation
in Laos, concluding this”poor and possibly unstable place”confronts deepening problems in both
respects. Since Mar 00, Vientiane has had a succession of unexplained bomb attacks, possibly the work
of a clique within the regime seeking power. The”battered” economy faces 30% inflation and a nervous
tourist industry. “[T]he Internet is now accessible in some cities,[but] few people have the money
necessary to get online. This country of 5m has about 30,000 private telephones and no more than 5,000
computer terminals”. But you can get Thai television. Landler,”Wall St. Goes Hunting for Treasure in
China”NYT 17 Dec:-China needs expert help in managing the“initial public offering of”(i.e. for the first time
selling shares in)those vast state-owned corporations slated for privatization. So far”mega-offerings”have
been in two industries: telecommunications and petroleum. The article describes how six firms(three US,
two Chinese, one European),bidding for the right to manage the process for the China
Telecommunications Corporation, are competing for up to $300m in fees. This reflects the fact that”China
Telecom”, with 130m customers, 185m phone lines and $24b in sales, could generate $10b from its stock
offering. More important: “connections”seem less and less important in such deals. Simon Romero,”A
Cell Phone Surge Among World’s Poor...”NYT 19 Dec:-”Cellular telephones may be an increasingly
popular convenience in...prosperous countries. But demand is growing even faster in the world’s poor
nations...where wireless phones are considered a necessity for those who can afford them”. Brazil has
over 15m wireless subscribers. Moreover, as in Haiti, they are one of the few systems that works reliably.
Less than 1% of 8m Haitians have conventional phones, with 400,000 on the(sometimes five-year)waiting
list. Hence the number of mobile subscribers climbed 150% in 1999, to about 25,000 - over one-third of
all phone customers. UN’s ITU figures show this situation is found in many poor countries. In some Latin
American countries, wireless subscribers now outnumber users of regular phones. In Paraguay they
account for 60% of all subscribers, having increased 88% last year to 436,000. In Venezuela 57% of
subscribers use mobile phones. Africa’s wireless growth rate was 116% in 1999. Zimbabwe’s growth was
highest at over 800% to 174,000. In Botswana, Rwanda, Ivory Coast wireless already exceeds regular
phones. Reasons: in most cases existing infrastructure terrible; wireless cost has declined to less than
$600; perhaps most important is support from public officials since less political controversy (Vietnam,
Pakistan, Paraguay, Sierra Leone, Haiti). Wireless networks can even operate ”without the basic
structures of commerce”(Congo, Madagascar, Guinea). Since metered service is often not practical,
payment systems often involve prepaid service cards. Shows that Third World areas are adopting some
technologies(IT)faster than others. While having only about 5% of Internet hub computers, they had about
40% of world mobile phone lines in 1999(up from 20% in 1995) - with equivalent impacts. Amy Chua
WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New
York: Doubleday 2003):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems
in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not
against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these
ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation
that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for
developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] the best
political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints, tailored
to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these
goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - then the
problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four
specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field' between market-dominant
minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting the poor,
frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberal rather
than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take
to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles show where
and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in
Southeast Asia; (2)'White' Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia;
(4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony
Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case
of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority;
(11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy. Richard
Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 2006(1-12):-official
summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow
nation' of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory
essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is
even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National
Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m
households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards are
most ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with
that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow
nation' has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of
national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people
have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive
asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - now
building their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is looking
politically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP]
growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about
27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big
problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic]
prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create
enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans] more
money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus] 370b
rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more
[leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014.
[Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level". Final
points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading
politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go
beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rights
and democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's
Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to
cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes"; The
Economist 29 Apr 06"African Poverty: The Magnificant Seven"(51-2):-"How a few simple reforms can lift
African villages out of poverty... UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)(op.cit.) set such targets as
halving proportion of people living on less than $1/day by 2015. Other continents same targets, but most
egregious examples of poverty, poor health and underdevelopment usually found in Africa... World Bank-IMF report[:] African countries not doing enough to meet their targets on poverty. UNICEF still gloomier[:]
in Africa over 25% children under five still underweight, 'catastrophe for development' [and] in
east/southern Africa number underweight actually increased. [T]his sort of statistic fires up Jeffrey
Sachs(op.cit.), head of Millennium Project, [who contends] Africa's leap forward must begin... in parched
and pestilential villages where up to 80% of poor Africans actually live. To this end, Sachs has set up 12
"research villages" in 10 African countries(map) to pioneer models of development that can be replicated
by other villages in future. Another 66 villages added to experiment in clusters around original 12. Hope
is for 1,000 such villages by 2009, with exponential growth thereafter. Each village will receive practical
help from Project [at] $250/person over five years...Project trying to show how few simple reforms, seven
in all, can substantially improve lives and provide livelihoods. These are: fertiliser and seed to improve
food yield; anti-malarial bed nets; improved water sources; diversification from staple into cash crops;
school feeding program; deworming for all; and introduction of new technologies, such as energy-saving
stoves/mobile phones. [In] first Millennium village,.. incidence of malaria dropped by at least 50%
since...bed nets. Food yield has more than doubled [and] school feeding program has [raised students']
exam results. [Signs of various improvements in] economic activity as well... Sachs concedes seven
reforms can, in short term at least, be repeated only with 'resources from the outside'. This makes model
unduly dependent on foreign aid[, but] there is hardly a better investment"; Economist 23 Sep
06"Technology Leapfrogs: Behind the Bleeding Edge"(Edit.16):-"[S]ome cases, particularly in developing
world, when technological progress takes form of a leapfrog [-] adopting a new technology directly and
skipping over the earlier, inferior versions... By far best-known example is that of mobile phones in
developing world. Fixed-line networks poor or non-existent in many developing countries, so people have
leapfrogged straight to mobile phones. Number of mobile phones now far outstrips number of fixed-line
telephones in China/India/sub-Saharan Africa [Technology Quarterly(TQ) summary on mobile phones-PCs
follows]. By very nature, mobile networks far easier/faster/cheaper to deploy than fixed-line networks.
[Another leapfrog:] more energy-efficient light-emitting diodes (LEDS)[, which] could have [great] impact
in parts of developing world that lack mains power/electric lighting. LEDS' greater energy efficiency makes
it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day [TQ LEDS-summaries
follow]. So prospect of another leapfrog, as rural poor skip over electric grids and straight to a world of
energy-efficient appliances run using local 'micropower' sources. Other leapfrogs include embrace by
China/Brazil of open-source softwear; China's plan to build series of 'eco-cities' from scratch based on
new green technologies [TQ eco-cities summary follows]. Being behind 'bleeding edge' of technological
development can sometimes be good thing[:] early versions of a technology...can be avoided... Leapfrog
technologies can also spread faster, as do not face competition from entrenched earlier systems. And
leapfrogging straight to green technology means no need to dispose of the old, dirty one... Lesson [:]
wrong to assume developing countries will follow same technological course as developed.[If]
anticipate/facilitate leapfrogging, can prosper as result. "Splitting the Digital Difference" Computing: A
variety of novel approaches aim to bridge the gap between mobile phones and PSs in the developing
world (3-4 in 23 Sep 06; all items in TQ chapter)."Visions of Ecopolis" Technology and the Environment:
China has ambitious plans to build a model 'eco-city' near Shanghai. how green will it be?(20-3). "An Even
Brighter Idea" Lighting Technology: Light bulb is synonymous with invention. But, as this case history
explains, it may lose out to the light-emitting diode, which is better in many ways. 'Light bulbs are among
last devices that use vacuum tubes, an old technology that has been replaced in radios and most
televisions'(26-8)."Lighting Up the World" Greatest impact of LED-based lighting could be in developing
countries, where can be powered by batteries or solar panels(28).
Next item(drafted Oct 06),supported by varied Ottawans, is listed often as very broad issues are involved.
Christopher Spencer REASONS WHY ALL SOCIETIES ON EARTH MUST COOPERATE - IN TERMS OF
BOTH THEIR WEALTH AND KNOWLEDGE - IN ORDER TO SURVIVE:-Brief paragraphs first identify some
genuine and trans-species (but not simply idealistic) physical and emotional human traditions,
confrontations, disasters, or prospects that raise globally-relevant threats. These are followed by a few
relatively cheap and realistic, but world-wide and trans-human, policies. The challenges reflect the already
serious - and often inter-related - concerns of everyone, everywhere: all human beings now face “global”
threats in terms of: (a) mobile, unprecedented inter-human violence; (b) widespread, potentially global,
mis-health; (c) dangers generated to the earth on which all survive.
(1) All the wealthier societies on the planet now possess grand and growing assets of both physical
goods - far beyond essential human needs - and rapidly-expanding scientific/technical/ economic
knowledge - enough to create/improve their comfort and health. It now appears possible, and universally
profitable in terms of generating the good trade and health of all, to share such quantities of global assets
with all who lack them, so all groups could fully address painful and globally-destabilizing needs. Even
if competition were the pure motivation of large advanced companies, they would develop globally.
(2) Yet throughout the history of human beings, and contrary to the philosophy of the world’s strongest
religions, four social factors have been dominant among the whole species: human groups have been
mainly small (families or villages); their members have been grossly ignorant about almost all other
groups’ characteristics, strengths and problems; they have exhibited deep and general dislike and often
fear towards all other groups; and, above all, have felt no sense of responsibility for them. Violence
against, or at least selfishness towards, other groups has been chronic - but is suddenly not beneficial.
(3) Now, for the first time in human history, the entire planet is massively/increasingly interdependent, not
simply in terms of ‘globalization’ trade, but also regarding enormous travels/transfers of humans, goods
and bacteria between societies. We are also now living in unprecedented planetwide situations where
basic global knowledge is both vast and expanding - often via TV/Internet/phones in even isolated
villages. All human beings, however rich/poor, educated/formally ignorant, global travellers/physically
fixed, are potentially aware of other groups with greater/other power or assets - and/or apparent harm or
nonrelationship - in their own societies or another. Any group can feel independent/hurt/frustrated/
opinioned toward another, physically or emotionally. Nature/scale of interdependence: widely unknown.
(4) An unprecedented but expanding global fact is that ills, ranging from the mildly-harmful to the multi-fatal, can now easily be transferred via weapons, explosives, poisons, virus, serious misuse of nature.
The deliberate, unknown or accidental transfer of critical action to virtually anywhere else on earth, by
land, sea or air - could in future be, deliberately or otherwise, generated or passed by groups or
individuals that may or may not wish to inflict some ‘pain’ on others. Victims of such action/accident can
be in or from any society at all, and can hurt any type or groups of humans, animals, machines, transport,
buildings, towns or key liquids/gases/ foods/medicines/power-sources etc. The effects of deliberate or
accidental “spreads” or organized action range from minor diseases to mass murders.
(5) Any group will ultimately be responsible for “using” any of a variety of existing or developable actions
against/in any society on earth. Hence an essential way to reduce the world-wide threat - apart from
easing sharp and dangerous ill-feelings - must involve help in reducing serious/perceived pain/poverty/
(potential)disease/global misuse. It would also involve obtaining - through cooperative intelligence/law
among all regimes everywhere - advance information about relevant threats -since any/all societies may
somehow be threatened. But the most defensive and selfishly-beneficial means of easing global threats
is for the wealthier/more informed to provide the funds/goods/skills necessary to accelerate equity - by
both offering and obtaining relevant knowledge. Richer societies would no longer live safely while
ignoring any others’ agonies - nor even suffer from giving assistance. Isolation is no longer an option -
anywhere - for any rich and/or traditional society. We must all think, at least minimally, as global citizens.
Economist 09 Dec 06“Mobile Telecoms: Out Of Africa”(67-8):-official summary:“A new kind of telecoms
operator is evolving in Africa and the Middle East”. Highlights(from first para):“That mobile phones
transforming economic and social life in Africa now widely understood. Less well known are companies
leading the charge. Following flurry of deals over past 18 months, five African/Middle Eastern operators
now vying for supremacy. These regional powerhouses have worked out how to earn princely sums in
world’s poorest places. So far mostly been too busy signing up new subscribers to compete vigorously
with each other. But that is now starting to change, and industry preparing for round of consolidation as
operators start to attack each other’s markets”; Economist 09 Dec 06“India’s Telecoms Boom: Talk Is
Cheap”(68):-official summary:“India leads the world in mobile-phone subscriber growth”. Highlights (from
first para): “With 6.6m new subscribers/month, India in grip of unprecedented mobile-phone boom.
Figures released Sep showed India had overtaken China in new subscribers/month for first time. India still
lags behind China in total subscribers, with mere 136m...compared with China’s 449m. But India’s
government confident gap can be quickly closed, and meet target of 500m phone subscribers by 2010";
Economist 27 Jan 2007“Mobile Phones in Africa: Roaming Wide”(48):-official summary:“A plan is afoot
to create a pan-African market based on mobile phones”. Highlights:“The technology revolution may be
coming to poor countries via the mobile phone, not the personal computer, as it did in rich ones... Africa’s
surge in mobile-phone use may unleash the same sort of business energy, but tailored to local needs...
TradeNet, a software company based in Accra, Ghana, will unveil a simple sort of eBay for agricultural
products across a dozen countries in west Africa. It lets buyers and sellers indicate what they are after
and their contact information, which is sent to all relevant subscribers as an SMS text message in one of
four languages. Interested parties can then reach others directly to do a deal... Mobile-phone use in sub-Saharan Africa is soaring. Whereas only 10% of population had network coverage in 1999, today more
than 60% have it, a figure expected to exceed 85% in 2010... The price of economic development may be
junk mail by mobile phone”; Economist 03 Feb 07"North Korea and the Internet: Weird But Wired"(43):-"Kim Jong Il believes there are three kinds of fool in the 21st century: smokers, the tone deaf, and the
computer-illiterate... Internet dating is only one of the surprises about the internet in North, a country
about as cut off from the virtual world as it is from the real one... In most schools, computer courses are
now compulsory. In Pyongyang, visitors are supposed to be able to surf freely through the 30m official
texts,... local version of the Library of Congress. [Some cyber cafes] are packed with children playing
computer games. But the world wide web is still largely absent. [Those few] North Koreans with access
to the outer world are supposed to plunder the web to feed Kwangmyong - a clever way to disseminate
technical information to research institutes, factories and schools without losing control... In some places,
North‛s internet economy seems to be overheating. Near the northern border, Chinese cell phones/prepaid
phone cards needed are a hot black-market item, despite government efforts to ban them"; Nayan Chanda
Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven:
Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable
as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology,
science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the
present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with
my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so
it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view
that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has
to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders -
the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the
world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e
know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that
the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be
disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix
will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon
at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over
the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge
our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected";
Economist 29 Sep 07"Civil Liberties: Surveillance and Privacy: Learning to Live With Big Brother"(62-4):-official sum: "[L]ooks at the new technologies for collecting personal information, and the dangers of
abuse". Highlights:"[S]marter technology... that has been designed to fight 21st century war is being used
in the fight against crime [-] police are experimenting with use of miniature remote-controlled drone
aircraft, fitted with video cameras and infra-red night vision, to detect 'suspicious' behaviour in crowds...
Most of the time, convenience of electronic technology, and perceived need to fight the bad guys, seems
to outweigh any worries about where it could lead. [R]adio-frequency identification (REID) microchips
implanted in human beings to... keep track of old people/give employees access to high-security area...
Some want everyone implanted with REIDs as answer to identify theft. [E]lectronic devices already being
used to keep tabs on ordinary citizens as never before... The more data collected/stored, greater the
potential for 'data mining'... to discover patterns/predict future behaviour. [On] 11 Sep 01, it became widely
accepted that against deadly/globally networked enemy, every stratagem was needed [and that]
processing personal information... suddenly seemed indispensable. [US] FBI could soon access 20b
pieces of information, all churned/sorted/analysed to predict who might one day turn into terrorist. New
version, STAR, using information drawn from both private/public databases... In age of global terror, when
governments desperately trying to pre-empt future attacks, such profiling has become a favourite tool.
But... inaccurate when comes to individuals [and] unreliable when sniffing out terrorist plots, which
uncommon/rarely well-defined profile. [M]istakes are rife... Another worry: information on people used to
be gathered selectively.,. now indiscriminately. [C]ameras less important issue than emergence of
'database state'[:] personal records of citizens encoded/too easily accessible. DNA also increasingly
popular tool to help detect terrorists/solve crime. [P]roposed best way to prevent discrimination is to
include whole population in DNA database... But DNA less reliable as a crime detection tool than most
people think... More disturbing for most [US citizens] are greatly expanded powers government has given
itself over 6 years to spy on [them]. [After legal debate,] ordinary will continue to be spied on without need
for warrants - now legal. [In Britain, seems] to worry people[:] sheer volume of information now being kept
on them and degree to which accessible to an ever wider group of individuals/agencies... Most democratic
countries now have comprehensive data-protection and/or privacy laws[:] strict rules for
collection/storage/use of personal data. Intelligence agencies... usually exempt [and] no data ever really
secure. [E]rosion of individual privacy has accelerated enormously since [01] but security say many
terrorist plots foiled and lives saved. Privacy is a modern 'right' [though] few outside civil-liberties
community seem really worried about its loss now [and] the potential for abuse is huge and the
safeguards paltry"; Economist 13 Oct 07"Civil Liberties: Freedom of Speech: The Tongue Twisters"(66-7):-official sum:"The difficulty of reconciling traditional freedoms of expression with the new demands of
national security". Highlights:"In countries at war, freedoms of the press and of speech often restricted...
Al-Qaeda's attacks of 11 Sep 01, by precipitating a 'war on terror', also raised questions - both legal and
moral - about the role of the media in free societies. Several Western governments used national security
as justification for limiting certain sorts of public information/public speech. Press itself has... sometimes
refused to accept limits on its freedom of expression;.. sometimes has accepted them. If [accept] the lip
service almost all countries pay to a free press - 160 UN members have ratified International Covenant on
Civil and Political Rights - then freedom of expression has had a tough time... UN for first time issued
statement condemning the targeting of journalists and calling for the prosecution of their killers... To
some degree, the global increase in the number of journalists being killed, kidnapped and otherwise
harassed may signify that more journalists at work, and growing bolder... Attacks on media, Freedom
House points out, are not only bad in themselves; they are also a sign of worse to come: other democratic
institutions. In repressive countries, internet has often been greeted as a wonderful way to bypass
government control... For a while, relatively immune to regulation[, but] an academic think-tank says that
censorship of internet has spread from just a handful of countries five years ago to 26 nations. Some...
now blocking entire internet services. It is not surprising that such countries are suppressing freedom
of expression... US gives greater protection to freedom of expression than any other country... Even so,
a Century Foundation [man claims,] Bush's attempts 'to intimidate/punish the media, or at least to
manipulate/mislead it, represents one of most concerted assaults on [constitution]"[, and] number of
documents being stamped secret or classified has almost quadrupled... For many,.. administration has
tilted balance too far towards maintaining'certain information...in confidence'... In Britain, freedom of
expression has been under attack... It has now gone further [than US]... At first meeting of UNGA,
delegates described freedom of expression as 'the touchstone of all human rights'. In practice, that
freedom has never been totally unfettered... Under European Convention on Human Rights, freedom of
expression is subject to a wide range of possible restrictions, including national laws banning speech
likely to incite/'stir up' hatred against people... Since 01, these sorts of restrictions expanded to apply to
Muslims... Free-speech critics insisted some element of intent be involved, claiming otherwise religious
works... could be deemed unlawful... Sometimes the press has decided to censor itself... Attempts to gag
press in democratic countries usually fail"; Vijay Vaitheeswaran"Special Report: On Innovation:
Something New Under the Sun"(1-20) The Economist 13 Oct 07:-official sum:"Innovation, long the
preserve of technocratic elites, is becoming more open. This will be good for the world". Highlights:
"Rapid and disruptive change is now happening across new and old businesses. Innovation is becoming
both more accessible and more global. This... releases the untapped ingenuity of people everywhere and
could help solve some of world's weightiest problems... North America still leads the world in research
spending, but the big labs' advantage over their smaller rivals and the developing world is being eroded
by two powerful forces. First is globalisation, especially the rise of China and India... Second is rapid
advance of information technologies, which are spreading far beyond internet and into older industries.
[I]nnovation can involve plenty of clever gadgets/gizmos. [I]nnovation is not... invention. New products
might be an important part of the process, but they are not the essence of it. Much innovation happens
in processes and services. Novelty of some sort does matter, although it might involve an existing idea
from another industry or country... OECD says innovation can be defined as 'new products/business
processes/organic changes that create wealth or social welfare'. [Firms'] R&D organisations... had
successes, and many companies still spend... on corporate research[, but] the process is slow and
insular. [Now R&D] is giving way to the more democratic, even joyously anarchic, new model of
innovation[; and] move to an open approach to innovation is far more promising. [S]tudies do show that
a large and rising share of growth - and with it living standards - over recent decades is the result of
innovation. Innovative firms also tend to outperform their peers... Indeed, OECD experts believe most
innovation has been caused by globalisation and new technologies[:] in 1990s, 'innovations - in
technology as well as products and business processes - boosted productivity. As productivity rose,
competition intensified, bringing fresh waves of innovation'. That is why innovation matters. [T]he
'knowledge economy' is becoming more important. Indeed, rich countries may not be able to compete
with rivals offering low-cost products/services if they do not learn to innovate better and faster. But... it
is not necessarily a zero sum game. Because the well of human ingenuity is bottomless, innovation
strategies that tap into hitherto neglected intellectual capital and connect it better with financial capital
can help both rich and poor countries prosper... In an age of mass innovation the world may even find
profitable ways to deliver solutions to the century's greatest needs, including sustainable clean energy,
affordable and universal healthcare for ageing populations and quite possibly entirely new industries. The
one natural resource that the world has left in infinite quantity is human ingenuity"; Economist 05 Jan
08"Global Migration: Keep the Borders Open"(Edit.8-9):-off.sum:"The backlash against immigrants in the
rich world is a threat to prosperity everywhere". Highlights: "[A]round the rich world, immigration has
been rising to the top of voters' lists of concerns - which, for those who believe that migration greatly
benefits both recipient and donor countries, is a worry in itself".[Editorial draws top attention to"Special
Report: Migration" (Unique 1-16):-the 8 sections' titles/off.sums:"Open Up"/"Despite a growing backlash,
the boom in migration has been mostly good for both sending/recipient countries, says Adam Roberts".
"Of Bedsheets and Bison Grass Vodka"/"Rich economies gain from high levels of migration, but the
benefits are unevenly spread". "The Politics of the Gun"/"Migration has once again become a touchy
political issue". "Keep Out"/"Voters like the idea of tougher borders, but the cost is high and the benefits
are limited". "Send Me a Number"/Migrants' remittances help ease poverty back home, but they are not
a cure-all". "You Don't Have To Be Rich"/"Developing countries attract migrants too". "Circulate Or
Integrate?"/"A choice of migration policies". "The Long Term"/"Too much or not enough?" Other relevant
items in same issue: "Briefing: Germany's Jews: Latkes and Vodka"(40-2)/"Immigrants from former Soviet
Union are transforming Jewish life in Germany". "Immigration Controls: Guarding British Soil"(47-8)/"Britain's immigration regime, long one of Europe's most liberal, is to tighten up. Will it secure the jobs
of British workers - or those of MPs?"] [M]ost often migration is about young, motivated, dynamic people
seeking to better themselves by hard work [and h]istory has shown [it] encourages prosperity. Tens of
millions of Europeans who made it to the New World in 19th and 20th centuries improved their lot, just
as... today. Many migrants return home with new skills, savings, technology and bright ideas. Remittances
in 2006 were worth at least $260b - more in many countries than aid and foreign investment combined.
Letting in migrants does vastly more good for the world's poor than [foreign aid]. The movement also
helps the rich world... Indeed, advanced economies compete vigorously for outsiders' skills... Low-skilled
are needed too, especially in farming, services and care for children and the elderly. [So w]hy the
backlash? Partly because politicians prefer to pander to xenophobic fears than to explain immigration's
benefits. But not all fear of foreigners is irrational. Voters have genuine concerns... To keep borders open,
fears have to be acknowledged and dealt with... [I]t is not just futile but also foolish to build taller fences
to keep them out. Better [to open] more routes for legal, perhaps temporary, migration... Politicians in rich
countries should also be honest about, and quicker to raise spending to deal with, the strains that
immigrants place on public services... The social integration of new arrivals is also crucial... Better to seek
ways to isolate the extremist fringe... Above all, perspective is needed. The vast population movements
of past four decades... have offered a better life for millions of migrants and enriched receiving countries
both culturally and materially. But... politicians need... to deal honestly with the problems sometimes
caused"; Economist 19 Jan 08"Democracy in Retreat: Freedom Marches Backward"(Edit.12):-off.sum:
"Why the setback is likely to be temporary". Highlights:"[US] Freedom House's closely watched annual
review confirms 2007 was the second year during which freedom retreated in most of the world, reversing
a democratic tide that had looked almost unstoppable during 1990s following collapse of communism and
breakup of Soviet Union. [Attention then stressed on: "Measuring Liberty: When Freedom Stumbles"(63-4):-off.sum:"Civil and democratic rights are in retreat, says an organisation with strong, though not
uncontested, views on the matter".] [N]ews is grim[, b]ut can be a mistake to extrapolate too much from
the advances and retreats of a single year or two. [T]wo brighter observations. First, most people in most
places still want democracy [-] evident not only in what people say, even in conservative Muslim
countries[, but] also reflected in what people do[Kenya, Afghanistan, Iraq]. [C]ountries now riven by
political violence ... does not prove their voters cannot grasp the democratic idea... Where the strong are
willing to use violence to thwart popular will [Myanmar] or provoke violent reaction [Kenya], idea itself is
harder to squash or suborn. In many newly democratic parts of the world [Latin America], its roots are
spreading wider and burrowing deeper. [S]econd, there are many reasons why societies advancing fitfully
towards democracy can suffer setbacks[: the] transitions are disorderly [Russia, Iraq]. But autocracies
suffer setbacks too [Pakistan, Thailand, Bangladesh]. Freedom House may well be right that democracy
is on the back foot right now. In the longer run, its appeal is undiminished". Particularly relevant is Johns
Hopkins University's Francis Fukuyama "A Quiet Revolution: Latin America's Unheralded
Progress"Foreign Affairs Vol.86/No.6 (Nov/Dec 07). This is careful/positive review of Michael Reid
Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul(Yale Univ. Press 07) 352 pp. Review's official
summary:"Latin America is deepening its democratic institutions, integrating into the global economy,
and finally addressing endemic social inequalities - in short, turning into something of a success story
even as most outsiders look the other way"; Economist 02 Feb 08"The Internet in China: Alternative
Reality"(69-70):-off.sum:"China will soon boast more internet users than any other country. But usage
patterns inside China are different from those elsewhere". Highlights:"[By end-07,] internet users...
reached 210m,... up by more than 50% on 06 and more than 3 times number for India... Within few
months,.. China will have more users than US[ and,] at just 16%, rapid growth likely to continue for some
time. [N]o surprise, but done in a very different way from other countries [-]largely result government's
repressive approach towards information/entertainment. News is censored... Internet itself also tightly
controlled. Access to many foreign websites restricted; Google's site filters its results to exclude
politically sensitive material... Yet it is limitations... that make internet so popular in China[:] internet fills
gaps and provides what is unavailable elsewhere, particularly for young people. More than 70% of Chinese
internet users are under 30, precisely the opposite of US. [O]bvious use is to distribute free pirated
films/TV shows/music... China's censors... unable to stem flow of pirated foreign media. [P]iracy starting
to worry government,.. because availability of free foreign content is holding back development of
domestic media industry. [M]aking money online, biggest market involves delivery of mobile-internet
content to mobile phones. Over 1/2billion mobile-phone users; more than 1/2 then use phones to buy
ringtones/jokes/pictures... Another big field: online multiplayer games [-]so popular, government started
worry aboutimpact on adults' productivity/children's education... Although constraints on... hard news,
internet sites provide steady supply of gossip, features, dabs of propaganda, slightly salacious
stories/photos; constantly testing boundaries of what is permissible. [M]ost dynamic area, and hardest
for outsiders to understand, is online communities. [F]or many users in China, internet not truly a
worldwide web; only as wide as China[, but] internet community evidently a world unto itself"; Economist
09 Feb 08"Technology and Development: The Limits of Leapfrogging"(Edit.12-3):-off.sum:"Spread of new
technologies often depends on availability of older ones". Highlights: "Mobile phone frequently... good
example of technology's ability to transform the fortunes of people in developing world. [I]t has enabled
[poor] countries to skip the fixed-line technology of 20th century and move straight to mobile technology
of 21st. Alas, mobile phone turns out to be rather unusual... There are some other examples of leapfrog
technologies that can promote development - local small-scale electricity generation based on solar
panels or biomass, for example - but may not be many. World Bank points out it is presence of a solid
foundation of intermediate technology that determines whether latest technologies become widely
diffused. [See: "Briefing: Technology in Emerging Economies: Of Internet Cafés and Power Cuts"(75-7):-off.sum:"Emerging economies are better at adopting new technologies than at putting them into
widespread use".] Computers/broadband links not much use without a reliable electrical supply, and
latest medical gear is not terribly helpful [if] lacks basic sanitation and health-care facilities... World Bank
looked at 28 examples of new technologies that achieved a market penetration of at least 5% in the
developed world, and found 23 of them went on to manage a penetration of over 50%. Then considered
67 new technologies that had achieved a 5% penetration in the developing world, and found only 6 of them
went on to reach 50%. Although new technologies are often adopted by a small minority in poor countries,
they then fail to achieve widespread diffusion... World Bank concludes: capacity to absorb and benefit
from new technology depends on availability of more basic forms of infrastructure. Clear implications for
development policy[:] with technology, as with education, health care and economic development, short-cuts are rare"; Economist 12 Apr 08"Special Report on Mobile Telecoms: Nomads At Last"(Special 1-18):-off.sum:"Wireless communication is changing the way people work, live, love and relate to places - and
each other, says Andreas Kluth". Highlights of introductory essay: "Urban nomads have started appearing
only in past few years. [T]hey are defined not by what they carry but by what they leave behind, knowing
that environment will provide it... Modern nomads carry almost no paper because they access their
documents on their laptop computers, mobile phones or online. Increasingly, don't even bring laptops.
Many... travel with only 'smart phone'. If need arises for large keyboard, they sit down in front of nearest
available computer anywhere in world, open its web browser and access all their documents online. [As]
many nomads are frequent flyers, [airlines] now introducing in-flight Wi-Fi... A modern nomad...may never
have left [location since] how far he moves is completely irrelevant. [N]evertheless has a new and
surprisingly different relationship to time, to place and to other people... Sociologists are trying to figure
out how mobile communications are changing interactions between people [since] has implications for
society at large. [Others] investigating... whether it makes young people... more autonomous or more
dependent... Activists are trying to piggyback on the ubiquity of nomadic tools to improve the world, even
as they worry about same tools in the hands of the malicious. Special... explores ramifications of mobile
technology rather than the technologies themselves. [N]ew generation of wireless technologies is already
poised to take over[, and] the airwaves are now among society's most important assets... Research in
Motion [has] launched iPhone, with its radically new and user-friendly touch interface[;] Google received
50 times more web-search requests from iPhones this year than from any other mobile handset... Now
mobile phone is on course to replace PC as the primary device for getting online. [M]ore than half world's
population now subscribe to mobile-phone service, so the internet at last looks set to change whole
world. [M]ost wonderful thing... is that consumers can increasingly forget about how it works and simply
take advantage of it". Other essays' titles/off.sum:"Labour Movement": "Joys/drawbacks of being able to
work from anywhere"."The New Oases":"Nomadism changes buildings, cities and traffic". "Family
Ties":"Kith and kin get closer, with consequences for strangers". "Location, Location, Location" :"It
matters". "A World of Witnesses":"When everybody becomes a nomadic monitor". "Homo Mobilis":"As
language goes, so does thought". Editorial:"A Wireless World: Our Nomadic Future"(16)draws carefully
on Special Report, and concludes:"Will it be a better life? In some ways, yes. Will liberate ever more
knowledge workers[; but those] who are 'always on' all too often end up - mentally - anywhere but here.
[M]ight bring you much closer to family/ friends; but may make it harder to bring in outsiders... As for
politics, tools... can improve the world [e.g.] turn practically everybody into a potential human-rights
activist... But same tools have dark side[i.e.]promises heaven of new freedom but also... hell of constant
surveillance"; Economist 31 May 08"Mobile Telecoms: Halfway There"(68-9):-off.sum:"How to promote
the spread of mobile phones among the world's poorest". Highlights:"[Very soon] the number of mobile
phones in use will exceed 3.3 billion, or half the world's population. No technology has ever spread faster
around the globe: took less than two decades to reach this degree of penetration. [Already plans] on
getting the other half connected. [T]hat means finding ways to make mobile phones more affordable... The
single largest barrier... is the cost of a handset... Cheapest phones now cost less than $30[;] voice-only
handsets could fall to $10 in five years. But affordable phones are only part of the picture[:] operators in
developing countries have been inventive in efforts to reach rural customers... For operators to make a
profit at such low prices, network infrastructure must be cheap to install and operate [e.g.] share network
infrastructure to cut costs; small, low-cost base-stations specially for use in developing world. [A]lso new
business models, such as having a local entrepreneur run a base-station and provide services [billing and
handset maintenance]. Yet... governments keep adding costs - mainly by levying taxes and customs
duties. Particularly high in sub-Saharan Africa [where] average ratio of tax payments to operator revenues
is 30% [and] on average the mobile industry... contributes 7% of national tax revenue. [E]asy to explain:
governments have to tax something, and mobile phones are an easy target, since operators' billing
systems do all the hard work. [Yet] global mobile penetration will reach 75% by 2011 [-] a potent force for
economic development in the world's poorest countries. But more can be done to exploit it... By cutting
back on mobile-specific taxes and tariffs, governments can help [economic growth/access to
communications]".
The Economist 30 Aug 08"Poverty: The Bottom 1.4 Billion"(70):-off.sum:"The world is poorer than we
thought, the World Bank discovers". Highlights:"In Apr 07, World Bank announced that 986m worldwide
suffered from extreme poverty - first time count dropped below 1b. On 26 Aug 08, grim news to report:
'developing world is poorer than we thought'. The number of poor was almost 1.4 billion in 05[, but simply
meaning] that the plight is now better understood. Bank has improved its estimates of the cost of living
around the world, thanks to a vast effort to compare the price of hundreds of products... in 146 countries.
In many poor countries the cost of living was steeper than previously thought, which meant more people
fell short of poverty line... The researchers now prefer a yardstick more typical of the 15 poorest countries
that have credible poverty lines. By this definition, people are poor if cannot match the standard of living
of someone living on $1.25 a day in US in 05... Discovery of another 400m poor will not satisfy some of
the bank's critics, who think it still undercounts poverty. Its cost-of-living estimates are based on the
prices faced by a 'representative household', whose consumption mirrors national spending. But the poor
are not representative. [Since buying in smaller quantities, pay more]". Also directly relevant to serious
global poverty: "Global Health: The Price of Being Well"(59-60):- off.sum:"Is it time for a new paradigm
for health and development? A heavyweight panel with an egalitarian ideology claims to have found one".
Highlights: "[R]eport released 28 Aug 08 by [Commission on Social Determinants of Health which] asked
by WHO to take a broad look at the question of inequality and health. [P]anel issued a call to arms:
'Closing the gap in a generation'. [L]ife of a slum dweller...is generally shorter, nastier, more brutish than
the earthly span of a rich person... But why, asks panel, [does the poorer] tend to die more than two
decades sooner?.. Explanation, according to [panel], is not merely a matter of income. Nor can it be
reduced to the varying capacities of health systems. In addition,.. there are social/political/economic
forces that ostensibly have little to do with health but can still end up determining 'whether a child can
grow up and develop to its full potential and live a flourishing life, or whether its life will be blighted'. To
reduce the risk of latter, the experts have drawn up a long wish list. They call on governments to improve
the quality of everyday life, particularly for women/girls in poor countries, through investment in child
care/education, and by insisting on better working conditions. They stress the need to 'tackle the
inequitable distribution of power/money/resources' - through better governance, support for civil society,
and more equitable economic policies. [Article discusses several criticisms of report, but concludes:] it
would be a pity if the new report's saner ideas were obscured by the authors' quixotic determination to
achieve perfect political, economic and social equity". Global poverty from aid point of view: Economist
06 Sep 08"The Future of Aid: A Scramble in Africa"(69):-off.sum:"Donors and recipients try to get to grips
with the chaos in international aid". Highlights:"The development-aid business is a shambles. High Level
Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Accra agreed on that.The meeting was the first follow-up by 100-odd
countries/agencies/NGOs to an accord on making aid more effective, reached in Paris in 05. [O]fficial
development assistance has been rising modestly[, but] the problem is that aid is fragmenting: too many
agencies, financing too many small projects, using too many different procedures. [OECD reports] 18 poor
countries each has 25 or more official donors[;] number of aid projects financed [up] to 80,000 over past
10 years... UN reckoned 37,000 international NGOs in 00 [- more now. I]ncreasingly important to the aid
business, NGOs spent $27b of aid in 05. Total official assistance $84b is evidence of western generosity,
but it is swamping poor countries... Paris declaration laid down number of principles for making aid work
better... Some of targets are sensible[: e.g.] donors... using their own experts (not local people) to build,
run and evaluate operations. [B]iggest problem: too many aid agencies; challenge is coordinating them.
[B]est way of coping with the fragmentation of aid is for recipient countries to lay down a set of national
development priorities and ask donors to fit in with their plans... Still, the picture is not all doom and
gloom[: e.g.] by 06, the no-strings-attached share of aid had reached 53%". Economist 20 Sep 08"Global
Business: In Praise of the Stateless Multinational"(Edit.20):-off.sum:"Not without its flaws, but infinitely
preferable to the state-bound version". Highlights: "[T]he idealistic spirit of international cooperation [is
described by interviewed executives of two outstanding] emerging-market multinational[s.] Lenovo and
Arcelor Mittal are at leading edge of a new phase in the evolution of the multinational corporation"[, as
argued in "Special Report on Globalisation: A Bigger World"(unique pages 1-26). Introductory essay's
official summary: "Globalisation is entering a new phase, with emerging-market companies now
competing furiously against rich-country ones. Matthew Bishop asks what that will mean for capitalism".
Other essay titles:-off.sums:"The New Champions":-"Emerging markets are producing examples of
capitalism at its best". "Ins and Outs":-"Acronyms BRIC [Brazil/Russia/India/China] out all over". "The
Empire Strikes Back":-"Why rich-world multinationals think they can stay ahead of the newcomers". "Oil,
Politics and Corruption":-"Bad capitalism carries its own risks". "The Rise of State Capitalism":-"Coming
to grips with sovereign-wealth funds". "Cities in the Sand":-"A new sort of investment partnership".
"Opportunity Knocks":-"As long as the protectionists don‛t spoil it". Back to Editorial:] "Today the goal
is to create... the 'globally integrated enterprise' - a single firm in which work is sourced wherever it is
most efficient. [S]enior managers will increasingly be spread around the world, which will require them
to learn new tricks... Some people assume that stateless multinationals inevitably compete away
standards in a race to the bottom. It is true that multinationals tend to shop around for taxes, but in other
ways they are usually sticklers for good behaviour. Encouragingly, firms from emerging markets are
finding that a globally integrated company needs a single culture... A globally integrated firm cannot allow
corrupt practices by employees in some countries and not others, so it must outlaw them everywhere.
[I]t cannot enforce religious practices/holidays/different ways of life, so it must preach tolerance. [T]he
real threat comes from overly chummy links between a state and its multinationals... Rather than fear the
stateless corporation, people would be wise to do all they can to make them feel at home". Also
relevant:"Emerging Markets:Beware Falling BRICs"(92). Economist 22 Nov 08"Mobile Phones: The Battle
for the Smart-Phone's Soul"(76-7):-off.sum: "Competition heats up to provide the software that powers
mobile phones". Highlight:"[N]ot all is doom and gloom in the mobile-phone industry. On the contrary,
it is going through two important shifts that promise to generate much growth and profit in the years to
come. First, even though overall sales may fall in 2009, sales of 'smart' phones - those that allow you to
surf [and use in many ways] the internet... are booming. [T]he market for smart-phones will grow... to $95
billion in 2013... Second, and more important, as handsets get smarter the nature of the industry will
change. It will be less about hardware and more about software, services and content. [T]his is why... a
fierce battle between operating systems for handsets has broken out... The best outcome... is a continuing
battle... And it is by innovating rapidly that the mobile-phone industry has the best chance of weathering
recession". Economist 18 Apr 09"Technology and Medicine: Fixing Health Care"(Edit.13-4):-off.sum:
"Technology has been a culprit behind runaway health costs. It might now help tame them".
Highlights:"[D]emand for health care will only grow [globally, and rich and poor] governments are already
having to adjust. The snag is the cost[, with two reasons] repeatedly: distorted payment systems.,.and
a lack of proper competition. Medical device manufacturers often expect reimbursement for expensive
new equipment on [strange] 'cost plus' basis, and drug companies enjoy temporary monopolies on new
pills." Editorial then recommends: "Special Report on Health Care and Technology" (SR pages 1-18). Its
chapters' titles and official summaries are as follows:"Medicine Goes Digital"(SR 3-4):-"The convergence
of biology and engineering is turning health care into an information industry. Will be disruptive, says
Vijay Vaitheewaran, but also hugely beneficial to patients". "HIT or Miss"(SR 4-6):-"Health reformers have
long wanted to digitise medical records. They are getting closer". "Flying Blind"(SR 6-8):-"Digital medicine
will improve medical care - and it may possibly revive drug discovery". "Getting Personal"(SR 9-11):-"The
promise of quick and cheap genome sequencing". "A Doctor in Your Pocket"(SR 11-4):-"Developing
countries are using mobile phones as a way of leapfrogging to personalised medicine". "Fantastic
Journey"(SR 15-7):-"Medical technology is making medicine more portable, precise and personal". "Health
2.0"(SR 17-8):-"The arrival of digital medicine is already empowering patients - but will it also lead to
better health?" Editorial again: "[Change is] finally under way, prompted by a host of
information/communication technologies that should make health care much more portable, precise and
personal. Spread of electronic medical records and emergence of a 'smart grid' for [medical information]
should bring more transparency... Personal medical monitors and other devices should make it easier to
treat expensive chronic diseases... Change is also being prompted by the willingness of
doctors/politicians, especially in poorer countries, to apply at least some economic tests to medical
spending". See: Health Care in China: Will Patients be Rewarded?"(45):-"The government's plans are still
something of a mystery". "Dialysis in China: Free for Now"(45):-"How to embarrass government into
providing health care". "Health Care in India: Lessons from a Frugal Innovator"(67-8):-"The rich world's
bloated health-care systems can learn from India's entrepreneurs". Back to Edit:-"Britain... has
championed use of basic economic appraisals[, and] Obama wants to expand comparative effectiveness
studies and health technology assessments... Arrival of digital medicine promises to shake medical
establishment to its roots,[handing] much more information over to patients themselves. But biggest
savings will [come] from application of basic economics". Economist 26 Sep 09"The Power of Mobile
Money"(Edit.13):-off.sum:"Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could
have just as big an impact". Highlights:-"[M]obile phones... in few short years became tools of economic
empowerment for world's poorest. Compensate for inadequate infrastructure,.. allowing information to
move more freely, markets more efficient, unleashing entrepreneurship. All has direct impact on economic
growth [World Bank: extra 10 phones per 100 people in typical poor country boosts GDP by 0.8%]". More
than 4 billion handsets are now in use worldwide, three-quarters in the developing world. For the major
trends that are changing the current world, see also in this issue "A Special Report on Telecoms in
Emerging Markets"(SR pages 1-19). Chapters' titles and official summaries: "Mobile Marvels"(SR 3-4):-"Poor countries have already benefited hugely from mobile phones. Now get ready for a second round,
says Tom Standage". "Eureka Moments"(SR 4-8):-"How a luxury item became a tool of global
development". "The Mother of Invention"(SR 8-12):-"Network operators in the poor world are cutting costs
and increasing access in innovative ways". "Up, Up and Huawei"(SR 13-5):-"China has made huge strides
in network equipment". "Beyond Voice"(SR 15-8):-"New uses for mobile phones could launch another
wave of development". "Finishing the Job"(SR 18-9):-"Mobile-phone access will soon be universal. The
next task is to do the same for the internet". Highlights:"The reason why mobile phones are so valuable
to people in the poor world is that they are providing access to telecommunications for the very first
time... The developing world's rural poor will account for most of the growth in the coming years[, and]
the total reach 6 billion by 2013. Three trends in particular are reshaping the telecoms landscape. First,
the spread of mobile phones in developing countries accompanied by the rise of home-grown mobile
operators in China, India, Africa, Mideast that rival or exceed the industry's Western incumbents in size...
Second trend is emergence of China's... telecoms-equipment-makers,.. which have entered the global
stage [and] now have a growing reputation for quality/innovation... Third trend is development of new
phone-based services, beyond voice calls/basic text messages, now becoming feasible because mobile
phones are relatively widely available". To return to Editorial: "[A] new opportunity beckons: mobile
money, which allows cash to travel as quickly as a text message... Mobile-money services [can] allow
small retailers [in the developing world] to act rather like bank branches. They can take your cash, and
by sending a special text message, credit it to your mobile-money account. You can then transfer money
via text message to other registered users, who can withdraw it by visiting their own local shops. You can
even send money to people not registered; they receive a text message with a code that can be redeemed
for cash... Most successful example of mobile money is in Kenya [but] similar schemes are popular in
Philippines and South Africa... Extending mobile money to other poor countries, particularly in Africa/Asia,
would have a huge impact[:] faster/cheaper/safer way to transfer money than the alternatives... Mobile
money also provides a stepping stone to formal financial services for billions who lack access to savings
accounts/credits/insurance... Financial innovation has a bad reputation at the moment [RECESSION],
because exotic derivatives were one of the causes of the credit crunch. But mobile money and other new
ideas that could help the poor [see "Briefing: Financial Innovation and the Poor: A Place in Society" (83-4)]
provide a useful reminder that financial innovation in itself is not always a bad thing... Some banks... have
come to see mobile money not as a threat but as opportunity. [It] presents a shining opportunity to start
a second wave of mobile-led development across the poor world". Economist 26 Sep 09"Climate Change:
Avoiding a Crash at Copenhagen"(Edit.18):-off.sum "How to get negotiations on the right track for a deal".
Highlights:"The diplomatic process leading up to the climate-change conference in Copenhagen in Dec
is gathering speed[: at preparatory meetings] before try[ing for] a successor to the Kyoto protocol. [For
report on a new plan to control serious carbon emissions:"Airlines Pledge to Cut Emissions: Almost
Virtuous" (80):-off.sum"IATA, the trade body for airlines,.. promised that by 2050 the industry would cut
its carbon emissions to 50% of 2005 levels".] [While] so much energy... is good[,] much is misdirected...
if [they]continue to follow [flawed Kyoto] precepts too slavishly... Over past year [there] have been...
efforts to avert serious climate change[, e.g. in US, Japan, China]. [For more on US/Chinese positions see
also"Climate Change at the UN: Fine Words"(36).] But [US Senate, which must] ratify international treaties,
[includes] many senators who do not much like [US draft] Waxman-Markey bill to curb emissions, and it
is unlikely to be passed before the summit, if at all. [A] bust-up in Copenhagen would make it harder to
get legislation passed next year. There is an alternative: moving the negotiations onto a different
diplomatic track... Kyoto's approach has not... paid off... partly because the treaty left out big emissions
sources such as deforestation. [See "Paying to Save Trees: Last Gasp for the Forest" (93-5):-off.sum"A
new climate treaty could provide a highly effective way to reduce carbon emissions by paying people to
not cut down forests".] [But Kyoto also faced problems] because potential participants were put off by
the idea of internationally binding commitments. [Another proposed route:] All countries would come up
with a 'national schedule' of programs, such as cap-and-trade and low-carbon regulations. Developed
countries would also specify an amount by which they mean to reduce their emissions. These
commitments would have the force of domestic law, but would not be subject to international sanctions...
US legislators would find this more palatable; so would developing countries, which fear internationally
binding commitments could be used as justifications for imposing tariffs on them. [For examples of
already desperate states, see "East Africa's Drought: A Catastrophe is Looming"(59-60):-off.sum"Governments are at their wits' end to keep their hungry people alive... With rivers down to a
trickle or drying up completely, dams are running out of water; some are empty. Turbines have shut down.
Electricity throughout east Africa is patchier than usual... The high price of food and water is making
governments more disliked... The drought cycle in east Africa has been contracting sharply".] Kyoto, in
truth, has no teeth [and/or] it will not be enforced... China, while resisting... targets, may have done more
to curb emissions growth than any other country in recent years... There is not much time before
Copenhagen, but there is enough to open up an alternative track". Economist 03 Oct 09"Farmland and
Climate Change: Seasonally Adjusted"(73-4):-off.sum "Global warming will make it harder to feed the
world in 2050". Highlights:-"Oxfam has... compiled a litany of laments by poor farmers [in which they all
say similar things:]'moderate, temperate seasons are shrinking... rainy seasons are shorter and more
violent... making it more difficult to grow crops [and] difficult for them to know when best to plant'. As the
earth warms up, many have feared that farmers will pay a high price... Higher temperatures might turn arid
shrub lands into deserts, while improving the growing season in colder steppes[Canada/Russia].
[International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), US think tank,] has reached some sobering
conclusions. In parts of the developing world, some crop yields in 2050 could be only half of their 2000
levels. Irrigation might not help: climate change will hit irrigated systems harder than rain-fed ones. And
the hope that gainers from climate change will outweigh losers looks vain. [IPCC] says the oceans'
surface temperature will rise by around 1.6°C by 2050. However this says nothing about the temperature
and rainfall patterns that would result on farmland... In developing countries, IFPRI found, irrigated wheat
in 2050 would yield 28-34% less than in 2000. For irrigated rice, the declines would be 14-19%... China's
farming may... be more resilient than it sometimes appears. But South Asia, the world's most heavily
populated region, looks vulnerable: IFPRI forecasts a possible 50% fall in its wheat yield in 2050... As
patterns of production shift,.. more important to liberalise farm trade... But overall,.. the yield declines are
so great that only another Green Revolution would be enough to offset them. [L]ooks possible: the
technology to double or triple many crop yields exists in laboratories. The problem is to get it into the
fields... G20 [has just] promised to put more taxpayer money into farm research, and other help for
agriculture". Much regardless of climate-caused food challenges, see for instance "UN: World Hunger on
the Rise for a Decade"Associated Press 14 Oct 09:-"Declining aid/investment in agriculture caused a
steady increase in world hunger for more than a decade before the economic crisis pushed the ranks of
the hungry to a record 1 billion,.. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned in [its State of Food
Insecurity report for 2009]... FAO says global food output will have to increase by 70% to feed a projected
population of 9.1 billion in 2050. To achieve that, poor countries will need $44 billion yearly of aid to
agriculture... to increase access to irrigation systems, modern machinery, as well as to build roads and
train farmers". "Fuel Subsidies: Fossilised Policy"03 Oct 09(74):-off.sum:-"The G20 decides to end
subsidies on fossil fuels". Highlights:-"[At recent] meeting,.. world leaders decided to phase out fossil-fuel
subsidies in 'medium term'... The G20... account for 80% of greenhouse-gas emissions. Most subsidies
come from its poor and middle-income members[:] those outside OECD spend $310 billion a year on such
subsidies, mainly for petrol... The subsidies mainly benefit middle-income and higher-earning urban types;
the rural poor use little fossil fuel... Subsidising fossil fuels has many [practical] flaws... Rich countries
subsidise... by much less. [Yet apart from financial savings,] eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies would result
in a 10% reduction in global greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050". "[US] Regulating Greenhouse Gases:
Enter the [Environmental Protection Agency or]EPA"03 Oct 09(38-40):-"EPA has announced that if
Congress won't legislate to cut greenhouse gases, it will regulate anyway... A Supreme Court decision
earlier this year required EPA, once it had established that carbon dioxide was a pollutant, to start
regulating emissions from vehicles. Now administration has authorised EPA to start regulating gases from
stationary sources too - power stations and industry, the origin of most emissions and backbone of US
economy. The proposed rules, which would take effect in 2011, will focus on the country's biggest power
stations and require them to prove that they have employed the best available technologies, or face
penalties for not doing so. [A]dministration hopes matters will not get to that point[, but] if a bill were not
passed before the climate conference in Copenhagen in Dec[, US] can take EPA's intervention, along with
other measures, and argue that they add up to a substantial package of cuts". George Magnus The Age
of Aging: How Demographics Are Changing the Global Economy and Our World(Singapore: John Wiley
& Sons 09):-the official summary of the book's aims cannot be improved:"[It] explores a unique
phenomenon in the history of mankind, and therefore one which is taking us all into uncharted territory.
The combination of low or declining birth rates and rising life expectancy is producing rapid aging of the
world's population and stagnation in the number of people of working age in Western societies. [It]
examines the broad economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and
how aging societies will affect family and social structures". The style is carefully accurate and very rarely
uses technical words, but the text contains concentrated facts/arguments all the time, i.e. it's not light
reading. For these circumstances, I suspect most readers would consume each section slowly - but they
can be read individually. Here are selected sub-titles: "Falling fertility, family structures, and modern
times. Climate change, food, oil, and water join the fray. Global population changes. Aging and
dependency. The demographic dividend for poorer countries. How the rich world is aging. Will labor
shortages crimp growth? Will we be able to finance retirement? Later retirement is more than just a matter
of law. Age-related spending: pensions/healthcare. Aging in emerging and developing nations. Economic
consequences. Angry young men in an unstable region. Where globalization and demographics meet. Will
immigration solve aging society problems? Demographic issues in religion and international security.
Insecurity, inequality, and changing family structures. Jack A.Goldstone"The New Population Bomb: The
Four Megatrends That Will Change the World"(31-43) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-official
summary:"Twenty-first-century will be affected by four major demographic trends: the relative
demographic weight of the world's developed countries is dropping; those countries' labor forces are
aging and declining; the populations of the poorest, youngest, and most heavily Muslim countries are
growing the most; and for the first time in history, the world is becoming more urban than rural.
Policymakers will have to adapt current global institutions to these new realties". Goldstone is Virginia
E. and John T.Hazel, Jr., Professor at the George Mason School of Public Policy. Jagdish
Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs
Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How
There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea
that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist
Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes
but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and
unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist
Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her
criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He
also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders
involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and
University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at
www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.
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