INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: THIRD WORLD: IMPACT: MEDIA
from

Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

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by Christopher Spencer
Former Senior Advisor International Organizations,
Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Updated: 20 FEB 10


Pam Woodall"The New Economy: Falling Through the Net?"The Economist 23 Sep 2000(Survey: 34-9):-this major section of an excellent Survey gives a rare overview of the present and potential effect of information technology(IT),and particularly the Internet, on Third World economies(hence its location out of chronological order). Many fear that LDCs will suffer(permanently?)from their relative lack of computers/ Internet(in US, 50% online; in Africa, 0.4%)because:(1)the first in any market can dominate it;(2)online e-commerce benefits buyers(who can compare all sources)over sellers(LDCs);(3)high-yield hi-tech investments do not go to LDCs. However, many LDCs could gain even more from IT than the rich world because:(1)LDCs can buy others’ technology and copy their best systems;(2)low communications costs and easy access to key knowledge -already being quickly applied- enables LDCs to leapfrog old technologies and former physical obstacles;(3) virtually free and unlimited information and expert advice are widely and simultaneously available(e.g. for education and problem-solving);(4)small-scale LDC companies are more economic since can now sell direct to global markets at lower cost; (5) multinationals can benefit from(i.e. invest in)low LDC labour costs in both manufacturing and services (Bangalore)by using modern global communications. As for caveats, Third World governments need to establish more policies to attract ready-made technology-based investment, and encourage it to spread (Bangalore’s success has been isolated by Indian regulations, unlike China where competition has helped IT to proliferate). Africa must still create”many of the economic and legal institutions needed for a thriving information economy “. Latin America must raise its educational standards to at least the present Asian level. East Asia is already a major source of IT equipment(a third of the region’s exports), but could do even better in Internet-related services if its regulations were eased. Singapore/South Korea are already the 4th/7th biggest Internet users, and over the next decade“the efficiency gains from IT and e-commerce will be bigger in emerging Asia than in the rich countries”. IT can indeed help LDCs catch up. How do the international community and the UN see this situation/prospect? Agence France-Presse, ”U.N. Fears Divisive Impact of the InternetNYT 29 Jun:-at the 2000 conference to assess progress since the 1995 Copenhagen Summit on poverty and development, national and UNDP speakers expressed serious concern at the latest global facts and forecasts in the critical IT field. Their concern focussed on how Internet’s growing power risks widening differences between the world’s haves and have-nots, both between and within countries. The UNDP estimates that by 2001 there will be 700m Internet users(50m in 1997), with traffic doubling every three months and e-commerce growing 100% a year. With 88% of world users in industrial countries and 0.3% in the poorest(3b people live on less than $2 a day)this”digital divide”hardens differences of opportunity as the computer-less also lose access to technological and scientific information that is key to progress in many areas. Lack of telecommunications infrastructure is also a major impediment to reducing differences. It cannot be easily overcome with wireless technology, satellite reception and mobile phones as even these can be afforded in poor countries only by the wealthy few - who also are those most likely to have credit cards(for e-commerce)and an ability in English(used in 80% of Web sites). Corrective programs have not even been costed yet. On the other hand, at the request of the World Economic Forum(Davos), a task force of IT businessmen presented some constructive ideas on this issue to the G-7 meeting in Okinawa. John Markoff,“High-Tech Executives Urge Action on World’s Digital Divide”NYT 20 Jul:-reported that the G-7, who were discussing IT anyway, were urged to implement a set of principles, “including telecommunications and Internet deregulation, universal access to education and technical training,...support and financing for small entrepreneurs...creation of a Peace Corps-type volunteer group, the Global Digital Opportunity Corps, and...establishment of local technology community centers”. The Japanese government was going to commit $12b in loans and $3b in grants over five years to IT initiatives in the developing world, with similar commitments from all G-7 members expected. Relevant but not critical issues discussed by the executives were:(1)whether the“world income gap created by the industrial revolution[is still]the fundamental dividing line between rich and poor nations rather than the question of access to technology”; and(2)whether the“digital divide”is really“an education divide, and[IT]is only a conduit to promote education”. Economist 22 Jul:-two articles report that both China and India are being rapidly transformed by information technology. ”Wired China”(24-8):-claims China has already spent nearly $50b in“massive” investment in telecoms and data-processing hardware. Its advantage for Beijing is in tying local governments closer, and processing revenue data. It could also monitor and control citizens”much more forcefully”. A fibre-optic grid already covers China, connecting all principal cities and allowing new telephone lines to be installed at a “stunning”rate (10m in 1990, 125m today, 2m more per month). Mobile phones increased from 5m in 1995 to over 57m today. This has allowed the Internet to”surge”even faster(less than 50,000 users in 1995; 2.1m at the beginning of 1999; expected 8.9m by the end of 2000). When China joins WTO, foreign investment in this huge market will become legal, if still limited by state control, encryption limits, Internet policing and news monitoring. Constraints cannot be comprehensive(e-mail), but 17-30-year-old users are unlikely to“lead demands for democracy and a more accountable government”,being relatively unpoliticized - partly by Internet“opium”. Meanwhile to the south-west,”When India Wires Up”(39-40):-reports that PM Vajpayee is keen on information technology in spite of opposed vested interests and the need to convert from cheap programming for foreigners into an innovative and exporting society. The PM seems to be winning. Long-distance telecoms being fully deregulated and international links will also be opened up, allowing huge increases in capacity (perhaps lowering the cost of Internet access by 50%). The laying of a national optical-fibre backbone is being greatly eased, and new education policy and infrastructure will encourage the rapid expansion of computer skills. Backward states will be assisted by almost-zero duties and sales tax exemptions on IT-related equipment. Software exports of $5.7b in 2000 may be succeeded by IT revenue of $87b and exports worth $50b by 2008. While profits may be concentrated, widespread Internet access can transform the information/ bargaining power of India’s villagers. The Net is”now part of the political agenda”. Kumar Ketkar Review of Murali Patibandla, Deepak Kapur and Bent Petersen,”Import Substitution With Free Trade-The Case of India’s Software Industry”in Economic and Political Weekly(Bombay)8-14 Apr:-Ketkar offers both his summary of a major essay and his own thoughts on the Indian software industry in Foreign Policy No.119(Summer 2000):-about 1990, PM Rajiv Gandhi stressed the role of the information revolution to take India into the 21st century. Ironically, he was ridiculed for simply aping the West’s technology and lifestyle by the BJP, which forms the present government. In the interim, India’s annual software exports have increased from $130m to $3b, are expected to exceed $4b in 2001, and already employ more than 200,000 workers. In coming decade, exports are expected to increase more than tenfold. The authors note India’s software industry was able to achieve export competitiveness without any real domestic market base, and with“utterly inefficient support from input industries”. There were three reasons: (1)cheap skilled labor, thanks to Indian higher education and technology institutions; (2)widespread ability in English -all Indian higher education is in English; and(3)import substitution policies”encouraged...highly developed pockets of industry able to compete in the global economy”and promoted to export. Other Third World countries can replicate India’s success in developing high-tech industries by investing heavily in higher education, R&D, and critical infrastructure. One result for India: “a vast pool of scientific and technological talent”. But apparently still not enough: AFPIndia Plans to Double IT Workers to Meet Global DemandNew York Times 05 Aug:-reports India plans to double the enrolment of students in engineering colleges to meet exploding demand for IT specialists, both from foreign firms(German, Japanese, Singaporean, British, US)and from the domestic IT industry. As one aim is to educate the poorest and remotest areas of India in IT, instruction will be in regional languages as well as English. Another aim is to introduce“electronic governance”in all states. Associated PressChina Closes Dissident Web SiteNYT 8 Aug:-shows Beijing is trying(with limited success)to protect Internet users from infection by“counter-revolutionary content”. The first dissident Web site to be shut down, the”New Culture Forum”, was described as the first within China, rather than based abroad. Beijing now faces conflict between promoting the Web’s economic benefits and preventing it from spreading heresy. Since the number of Chinese online doubles every six months, officially reaching 14.9m in June, and many users claim to have found ways to evade official monitoring and the blocking of access to foreign news and political views, official news monitoring and special policing units are being created. Reuters,”Jiang Zemin Says E-Commerce Will Transform ChinaNYT 22 Aug:-the Chinese president has taken a mainly”economics-first”tack. At a World Computer Congress in Beijing he”offered a ringing endorsement of the Internet... saying e-mail, e-commerce, distance learning and medicine would transform China”. The People’s Daily kindly warned the faithful recently that Internet, along with”healthy”stuff, included“much reactionary, superstitious and pornographic content”while“Enemy forces at home and abroad are sparing no effort to use this battle front to infiltrate us”. However Jiang’s views on the”battle front”were mostly positive: ”virtual reality is profoundly changing the way people produce, learn and live...We should deeply recognize the tremendous power of [IT] and vigorously promote its development...The speed and scope of its transmission have created a borderless information space around the world...The melding of the traditional economy and information technology will provide the engine for the development of the economy and society in the 21st century”. He did warn against“a flood of trash”and”problems that make people uneasy: anti-science [code for Falun Gong], false science and information that is unhealthy to the point of being downright harmful”. Jiang offered a two-edged solution: an”international Internet pact strengthening the safe management of information to(sic)give free rein to the positive uses of Internet”. Edward Wong,”China’s New Culture Starting to Take Shape, Minister SaysNYT 08 Sep:-Sun Jiazheng, Chinese culture minister, accompanying President Jiang to UN, mused on China’s place in the new global culture: although China had opened up its cultural market considerably, its modern cultural industry“has just started to take shape”and faced both opportunities and“tough challenges”. Hence the Internet industry would have to open up“gradually”, with continued government monitoring of content. Similarly, foreign media infrastructure investment and material were welcome so long as they abide by Chinese law and“tastes”. With over 17m Internet users, this anarchic new medium is especially sensitive - particularly in the context of a gradually-emerging extra-state civil society. Yet, Sun said, the government was working on a policy to encourage its growth, since “development of the Internet is definitely, absolutely a good thing”, even if Beijing is trying to control“some unhealthy content”. David E. Sanger, ”Clinton and China Leader Meet but With Little GainNYT 09 Sep:-Jiang himself stressed China’s role as a high-tech nation that is”plugging into the world”. To US businessmen he claimed,“We now have over 16 million netizens[sic], more than 27,000 World Wide Web sites, over 70,000 Chinese domain names and 61 million mobile phones”. Economist 09 Sep”Tapping Into Africa”(49):-this note on the current/potential impact of Internet on Africa states that of 360m Internet users worldwide, only 3.1m are thought to be in Africa, and most of these are in South Africa or north of the Sahara. However, access is spreading fast and may have tripled during 1999. “The UN has put its faith in the Internet as a means for poor countries to leapfrog stages of development. The secretary-general’s millennium report...[Annan op.cit.],speaks of building ’digital bridges’. The UN’s own plans for bridge-building includes a corps of volunteers to teach people in developing countries how to use computers, and a health network to provide hospitals and clinics with up-to-date medical information”. Internet could also help to reduce the problems caused by Africa’s appalling infrastructure (poor or non-existent road, rail and air links; undependable/unavailable community power supply; unreliable/ expensive postal systems; and a totally inadequate telephone - and therefore fax - network). Internet access can instantly provide virtually unlimited information and the ability to inter-communicate worldwide. Africa’s “void”will start to be filled if a 32,000km ”undersea fibre-optic cable system, which will form a ring of connections around the continent”, and post office terminals for the poor, become reality. Internet by itself“may well speed the pace of change”. APChina Issues Limits on InternetNYT 03 Oct:-new Internet rules order access providers to guard against online political activity and reinforce limits on foreign investment, but add little to how China already ostensibly regulates the Web. One of few explicit new requirements is that providers are required to keep records on users and the material they post. If they then discover prohibited material, they must remove it and turn over their records to the authorities. Those who posted the material could be prosecuted. Since Chinese Web companies already must have approval from the government to receive investment or collaboration from abroad, announcement of this may be a warning of impending enforcement. China has to allow 49% foreign investment when it joins the WTO anyway. Compulsory reporting is the only completely new rule. Craig S. Smith,”Little Anxiety Over China Web RulesNYT 04 Oct:-”Chinese Internet entrepreneurs and their foreign backers expressed only mild concern...about the potential impact of new rules that, if enforced, could markedly slow development of the [industry]”, although companies could face fines up to...about $120,000 or be shut down. Most companies are already set up to avoid foreign ownership rules, and apply self-censorship. No foreign investor or domestic Internet content provider would want to be seen as turning in its customers. The most annoying rule is that companies providing news on education, health, medicine, etc. must get approval. Reuters,”India Moves to Cool Debate on Foreign MediaNYT 20 Oct:-since 1955 foreign newspapers/magazines can be sold but not published in India. Sushma Swaraj, a guardian of national culture and economic interests, and the information and broadcasting minister, has announced that the ban on foreign investment in this area is under review, since”the advent of the Internet had put a question mark over the policy”. In the resulting national debate, she stressed,”This is a very serious matter and needs to be deliberated at length before any decision”. The Times of India argued that”given the transformation of information and communication...there was`nothing sacrosanct’ about the 1955 resolution”, adopted in/for very different conditions. Centre for Media Studies noted that although there are already 40,000 papers/ periodicals published in India(40% in Hindi, 15% in English), they reach only a third of the billion people (English-language papers reach 5%). So much opportunity is there for the growth of media. APIndia’s Tech Boom Hits Poor WomenNYT 04 Nov:-article claims:”India’s [IT]boom is filtering down through little-known, less glamorous programs to far-flung areas-and transforming the lives of women,...poorest and least educated citizens”. Profits of the IT sector, among the world’s most developed, are clustered among elites in cities(New Delhi/Bangalore), but the technology is slowly reaching the masses, helping women take charge of their own lives, and even giving them income. Community information centers -with computers, satellite links and basic training- are set up in states as remote as Sikkim, while thousands of women get jobs (e.g. typing English documents on computers)and already comprise 20% of the IT work force. Among other benefits for women: government data(e.g.opportunities/ rights), voting, registering complaints, accessing”real-time”prices, land/health records, bank lending rates, and savings, learning about/setting up businesses. AP,”China Tightens Internet RestrictionsNYT 07 Nov:-Beijing has now published/clarified its constraints on the Internet while boosting government-controlled media. General sites must use news from the latter and get special permission to offer news from foreign media. Chat rooms may discuss only officially-approved topics. Many unwritten but expected rules are now official, speeding self-censorship and”neutral”fare trends. On the other hand, Beijing hopes to greatly expand Internet use for educational and business purposes. Reuters,”Mexico Plans to Double Number of Phone LinesNYT 11 Nov:-forthcoming Fox government plans to make phones in Mexico a basic service like electricity by doubling the number of lines within five years. This will be a major task, given that Mexico’s population of about 100m is now served by only 11 lines per 100 people, the lowest proportion among Latin America’s big economies, and is expected to cost $13b to reach 25 lines/100. Fox experts also plan to make the Internet a basic service, and to turn post offices nationwide into complete communications centers with public computers. To achieve this, the federal communications law will need to be reformed. The state telephone system-Telmex-was privatized 10 years ago, but still lacks competition. It is Mexico’s biggest Internet services provider, and had revenues of $10b in 1999. Two proposals made would increase the powers of the telecommunications regulatory agency, and create a fund to stimulate more telephone services investment in poor areas where returns would be limited. Mark Landler,”A Nascent Internet Takes Root in VietnamNYT 14 Nov:-article reports that while Vietnam’s tiny Internet business has only about 100,000 subscribers, it contains keen entrepreneurs who argue that if the government were to relax its curbs on the net, the annual growth in subscribers would jump from 40% to 70%. However the government’s attitude to the Internet is similar to that of Beijing: it must be disciplined. Consequently access is expensive/slow, only the state connects subscribers to the outside world, and monitors(often restricts) data traffic for political, social or cultural reasons. It blocks access to sites it deems subversive. Nevertheless, officials say they intend to lift Internet penetration from 0.1% to the”global average”of 10% by 2010. To achieve this, they may license additional Internet service providers, as well as allow other firms to establish foreign connections. Clearly, the state attitude is forced into a process of change. Its talk about”the new economy”and software development admits the Internet is a powerful tool. For an overview of the evolving political and economic climate: Economist 11 Nov“Bye-bye, Uncle Ho”(31-3). Economist, 18 Nov”Is Syria Really Changing?”(55-6):-careful, balanced discussion of whether and how much Syria has changed with the coming to power of Bashar Assad, who has promised to modernize the country. Inter alia it states,”for all the fanfare about a computer society, Syria’s Internet remains inchoate and restricted”. APChina Offers Look at Space ProgramNYT 22 Nov:-China has released an unprecedented policy paper on its hitherto secret space program. Policy calls for boosting commercial launch services with more powerful rockets, and putting a man in orbit by 2010. These plans reflect not only an advanced IT ability, but China’s intention to be a major global player. Having already carried 27 foreign-made satellites into space since 1985, Beijing clearly plans to get a larger share of the competitive global market for commercial launches by developing a new series of cheaper, stronger rockets. On this, see: Jane Perlez,”China to Stop Selling A-Arms Delivery SystemsNYT 22 Nov. It reports”Many American companies, from cellular telephone networks to international television conglomerates, are waiting in line for satellites to be sent into orbit, and China has expressed eagerness to offer low-cost services”. Reuters,”Outsourcing of Chip Making Seen Proliferating NYT 23 Nov:-a trend that will have a major impact on Third World IT-related industry(and hence experience) is for all elements of chip production except their design to be outsourced to developing countries. Asian plants have for many years made everything from sophisticated microprocessors to commoditised chips for the world’s computer-chip firms. The manufacturing plants(foundries), packaging and assembly plants, and computer board making have”grown by leaps and bounds”with the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry. As globalization proliferates, related outsourcing will expand, and sales for foundries and related companies are soaring. Contracts may now take place at four different stages for the same product. Two of Japan’s biggest chipmakers may be outsourcing 20-25% of all chip production in the near future. Smith,”A Chip Plant That Is Full of SymbolismNYT 24 Nov:-construction recently began on a $1.63b joint Chinese-Taiwanese computer-chip plant -the first of four plants. This event may not only herald a gradual shift of the computer industry away from Taiwan to China, but also their greater economic integration. Taiwanese have already invested $50b in the mainland, but”China’s fast-growing market for computer chips, together with its well-educated workers,...lower wages, and its plentiful land, makes [it] a natural base for the world’s semiconductor manufacturing”. China now has six semiconductor foundries making circuit-etched silicon wafers, while a third of Taiwan’s personal computer hardware is already made on the mainland. China will soon overtake Taiwan as the world’s third-largest manufacturer of personal computer hardware(after US and Japan). “Yet almost all the chips used in PCs assembled in China are imported...something China wants to change”. Landler ”Selling Status, and Cell Phones in ChinaNYT 24 Nov:”Everybody in China wants to own a mobile phone. For men, it’s like having a cigarette lighter. For women, it’s like wearing an accessory”. They’re a genuine revolution. “Not only are they a way for people to sidestep China’s cumbersome terrestrial phone network, they are the status symbol of choice for a generation of Chinese”. There are more than a dozen local producers already in a highly competitive market that is“helping set the pace in the design and marketing of cellular phones.[Moreover,]when it comes to wireless China has a much greater appreciation of technology than the US”. It is estimated China already has 65m cellular users, will have 105m next year, and 155m by 2002, when it is the world’s largest market. Economist 25 Nov,”Africa’s Dreadful Telephones: Call Africa, and Wait and Wait...”(53):-in sub-Saharan Africa, 34 countries have fewer than ten telephone lines per 1000 people, and the whole system is costly and decrepit(rich countries average more than 500 lines per 1000 people). Getting a phone installed can take more than a year, 60% of installed lines are faulty, poor quality renders them virtually useless for Internet access, and calling across Africa costs 50-100 times more than calling across North America. The main reason is that governments see the systems as money-making assets for themselves and friends. In Nigeria(4 phones/1000)a mobile phone with poor service costs $1000, although reform is promised. Ghana, however, has competing line, mobile and Internet companies(mobiles cost $50 with 4-hour installation). Somali cities, with neither government nor regulations, have sheds of phone booths offering satellite contact anywhere in the world for $1/minute. Economist 02 Dec,”China’s Chip Making: A Giant Sucking Sound”(63):-much of article reports the same globally-significant trend as Smith 24 Nov above. Additional conclusions include:”China is experiencing something of a silicon rush, as foreigners and Chinese alike race to set up factories that make, assemble or design chips for computers, mobile phones and almost every other electronic device...Motorola said it would double its investment...to $1.9b - at the time, the largest -ever foreign investment in China...IBM said it would build a chip-packaging plant...and Intel has recently announced similar plans”. There are several market forces driving this boom: pent-up demand for chips in China itself(will grow 20% annually for years), e.g. 250m mobile phones by 2004(cf. Landler 24 Nov); China has/produces more, better, yet cheaper engineers than even Japan; reputedly well-serviced locations and, so far, weak intellectual property laws. “The biggest risks may be political”. Smith,”China Allows New Telecom to Start UpNYT 04 Dec:-Beijing has granted a telecom licence to a Ministry of Railways subsidiary (with already 1m rail-sector subscribers), creating a sixth major carrier. In wireless telecom field, two mobile phone providers are competing, while three compete for the Internet and data transmission business. China already has 135m fixed-line subscribers and more than 65m mobile phone users. When China joins WTO, import duties on telecom equipment fall from a high of 35% to as low as 5%, and foreigners can own equity in relevant companies. Economist 09 Dec”The Minister of Arbitrary Power”(76):-a business-oriented sketch of Wu Jichuan, Chinese Minister of Information Industry,“most powerful man in what is likely to become the world’s biggest telecoms market”who said in regard to conflicting information from his ministry,”There are many opinions, but what matters is mine”. This”matters”globally, since there are now 70m mobile phones in China and may be 250m by 2005, making China the largest mobile-phone market in the world. It already plays an important role in the ITU and may determine global IT standards. It is therefore significant that Wu opposed any foreign participation in China’s Internet sector, although he is for now overruled by PM Zhu. Smith,”Sad Story of a Treaty: How Grinch Got to ChinaNYT 10 Dec:-”Within a week after [US] release of Dr. Seuss: How the Grinch Stole Christmas, videodisk copies of the film were selling on China’s streets for about $1.20 each - proof that China’s well-oiled copyright piracy machine is running smoothly despite government promises to shut it down[and recalling] difficulties China has carrying out trade agreements even as it prepares to enter the[WTO]”. China adopted the video compact disk format, so many state firms began making disk players, even for high quality digital videodisks. With anti-piracy efforts limiting other IT, compact disk makers switched to videodisks. There is now an oversupply of both disks and players, with 50m Chinese families owning players and buying/swapping disks, and driving players’ prices down to $70. (On regular films, the pirates outsell legitimate distributors about 35 to one, and have them on the streets two days after their debut in US theaters.) Quality is high -with smuggled equipment. As evidence of piratical success, Erik Eckholm,”China’s Movie-Going Masses Cheer Deep Cuts in Ticket PricesNYT 20 Dec:-reports that a large movie chain in southwest China,”tired of screening films to empty theaters, took the unprecedented [and wickedly capitalistic] step of slashing its prices by two-thirds, to just 5 yuan, or 60 cents.” Consumers responded by swarming to the company’s 15 theaters, yielding three times the usual box-office revenue. Hearing of this miracle, theaters in many other cities also offered price cuts of 50% or more, with similar results. Not only have prices been too high for a low-income market, but the availability of cheap, pirated videodisks offered an alternative. Hence”between 1989 and 1999, the number of movie tickets sold in China plummeted and box-office revenues fell by more than two-thirds, sending the domestic film industry staggering...[Now even] film industry leaders have agreed that lower ticket prices might be a good thing”. Reuters"China Plans Manned Space Flight in Five Years"NYT 13 Dec:-further to AP 22 Nov article, Chinese media now report that an astronaut will be put into space“in the next five years”, following more unmanned spacecraft launches. China will also launch over 30 satellites between 2001 and 2005 in its plan to become“a leading player in space exploration and commerce by building mainly on its home-grown rocket and satellite program”. China had already launched 47 domestically-made satellites and established three launch sites. [Chinese space program publicity may stress science/prestige & Western media focus on its military uses; but its greatest practical value relates to its IT applications, both domestic and as a hard-currency earner.] Further to this item, Reuters,”Report Says China Launches Navigation SatelliteNYT 21 Dec:-claims China has launched a locally-made navigation satellite, carried by a Long March 3A rocket, thus completing the country’s first satellite navigation positioning system. Different sources claim it will provide guidance for the highway, railway and marine sectors, or support territorial surveys, city planning, crop assessment and disaster monitoring. Taiwan stresses its military applications. Launch is the 22nd consecutive success. Economist 16 Dec,”Mystery Bombings in Laos: Gooseflesh”(45):-describes the general political/economic situation in Laos, concluding this”poor and possibly unstable place”confronts deepening problems in both respects. Since Mar 00, Vientiane has had a succession of unexplained bomb attacks, possibly the work of a clique within the regime seeking power. The”battered economy faces 30% inflation and a nervous tourist industry. “[T]he Internet is now accessible in some cities,[but] few people have the money necessary to get online. This country of 5m has about 30,000 private telephones and no more than 5,000 computer terminals”. But you can get Thai television. Landler,”Wall St. Goes Hunting for Treasure in ChinaNYT 17 Dec:-China needs expert help in managing the“initial public offering of”(i.e. for the first time selling shares in)those vast state-owned corporations slated for privatization. So far”mega-offerings”have been in two industries: telecommunications and petroleum. The article describes how six firms(three US, two Chinese, one European),bidding for the right to manage the process for the China Telecommunications Corporation, are competing for up to $300m in fees. This reflects the fact that”China Telecom”, with 130m customers, 185m phone lines and $24b in sales, could generate $10b from its stock offering. More important: “connections”seem less and less important in such deals. Simon Romero,”A Cell Phone Surge Among World’s Poor...NYT 19 Dec:-”Cellular telephones may be an increasingly popular convenience in...prosperous countries. But demand is growing even faster in the world’s poor nations...where wireless phones are considered a necessity for those who can afford them”. Brazil has over 15m wireless subscribers. Moreover, as in Haiti, they are one of the few systems that works reliably. Less than 1% of 8m Haitians have conventional phones, with 400,000 on the(sometimes five-year)waiting list. Hence the number of mobile subscribers climbed 150% in 1999, to about 25,000 - over one-third of all phone customers. UN’s ITU figures show this situation is found in many poor countries. In some Latin American countries, wireless subscribers now outnumber users of regular phones. In Paraguay they account for 60% of all subscribers, having increased 88% last year to 436,000. In Venezuela 57% of subscribers use mobile phones. Africa’s wireless growth rate was 116% in 1999. Zimbabwe’s growth was highest at over 800% to 174,000. In Botswana, Rwanda, Ivory Coast wireless already exceeds regular phones. Reasons: in most cases existing infrastructure terrible; wireless cost has declined to less than $600; perhaps most important is support from public officials since less political controversy (Vietnam, Pakistan, Paraguay, Sierra Leone, Haiti). Wireless networks can even operate ”without the basic structures of commerce”(Congo, Madagascar, Guinea). Since metered service is often not practical, payment systems often involve prepaid service cards. Shows that Third World areas are adopting some technologies(IT)faster than others. While having only about 5% of Internet hub computers, they had about 40% of world mobile phone lines in 1999(up from 20% in 1995) - with equivalent impacts. Amy Chua WORLD ON FIRE: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability(New York: Doubleday 2003):-this easy-to-read 350page survey of special political/economic/social problems in many parts of the world has generated good reviews and more influence. Its strong warning is not against either globalization trade or pure democracy in developing countries, but against pressing these ideas too quickly when rich but unpopular minorities dominate their economies - widely common situation that is carefully described. She concludes by first naming three goals: "[1] the best economic hope for developing and post-socialist countries lies in some form of market-generated growth; [2] the best political hope for these countries lies in some form of democracy, with constitutional constraints, tailored to local realities; [3] avoiding ethnic oppression and bloodshed must be a constant priority. But if these goals are to be achieved - if global free market democracy is to be peaceably sustainable - then the problem of market-dominant minorities, however unsettling, must be confronted head-on. [Finally, four specific "tonics" are addressed:] (1) the possibility of 'leveling the playing field' between market-dominant minorities and the impoverished 'indigenous' majorities around them; (2) ways of getting the poor, frustrated majorities of the world a greater stake in global markets; (3) ways of promoting liberal rather than illiberal democracies; and (4) approaches that market-dominant minorities themselves might take to forestall majority-based, often murderous ethnonationalist backlashes". Chapter sub-titles show where and how these major challenges exist and must be addressed: (1)Chinese Minority Dominance in Southeast Asia; (2)'White' Wealth in Latin America; (3)The Jewish Billionaires of Post-Communist Russia; (4)Market-Dominant Minorities in Africa; (5)Ethnically Targeted Seizures and Nationalizations; (6)Crony Capitalism and Minority Rule; (7)Expulsions and Genocide; (8)Assimilation, Globalization, and the Case of Thailand;(9)From Jim Crow to the Holocaust;(10)Israeli Jews as a Regional Market-Dominant Minority; (11)US as a Global Market-Dominant Minority; (12)The Future of Free Market Democracy. Richard Cockett"Chasing the Rainbow: A Survey of South Africa"The Economist 08 Apr 2006(1-12):-official summary of Survey: "Since end of apartheid, South Africa has moved closer to becoming the 'rainbow nation' of Nelson Mandela's vision. But not nearly close enough yet". Highlights of broad introductory essay: "South Africa has plotted its own course to relative stability, democracy and prosperity[, and is even] beginning to lead continent in entirely new way. [P]ost-apartheid government [African National Congress(ANC) now under President Thabo Mbeki] has managed to build 1.9m new homes, connect 4.5m households to electricity, provide 11m homes with running water. Targets for raising living standards are most ambitious on the continent. However, South Africa still deeply scarred by legacy of apartheid[- with that] geography very much intact... Now sense of impatience over pace of change[:] for many...'rainbow nation' has slowed to a crawl[,so] government well aware of this, and now intervening in more areas of national life to try to speed up change. [Yet] from education to foreign policy to crime-fighting, people have found creative solutions to many of their problems. That creativity is South Africa's most impressive asset, and increasingly comes from poorest and historically most disadvantagedof communities - now building their own ladders out of poverty. [F]or all the good economic news, government is looking politically more vulnerable than at any time since 1994 [defeat of apartheid] for simple reason: little [GDP] growth has benefited [ANC's] core supporters - poor and black. [U]nemployment [formally up to] about 27% [as new jobs] not enough to keep pace with number of new entrants into labour market. [O]ther big problem is rising inequality[:] number of people living on poverty line may be rising. [ANC economic] prudence paid off, bringing economic stability and launching consumer boom. But [it] did not create enough jobs[/investment]. So now ANC looking... at disgruntled activists who feel let down. [It plans] more money for program of social grants[mainly child support/pensions to about 10m out of 47m, plus] 370b rand over next 3 years on public works, mainly infrastructure/tourism, to boost jobs and create more [leveling] demand. Longer-term aims: growth rate to 6% by 2010; halve unemployment/poverty by 2014. [Dangers] twin bottlenecks.:. severe skills shortage and failure to deliver services at local level". Final points, also in Editorial"Term Limits in Africa: When Enough Is Enough"(18):"With many leading politicians discredited, continent needs a strong South Africa. Also needs South Africa prepared to go beyond its strickly African agenda, and to deliver on its commitments to good governance, human rights and democracy enshrined in new vision of African Union and Nepad [New Partnership for Africa's Development]. These are very much South Africa's creations. It is time for Africa's leading democracy to cast off its humility and diffidence - and perhaps even to throw its weight around for these causes"; The Economist 29 Apr 06"African Poverty: The Magnificant Seven"(51-2):-"How a few simple reforms can lift African villages out of poverty... UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)(op.cit.) set such targets as halving proportion of people living on less than $1/day by 2015. Other continents same targets, but most egregious examples of poverty, poor health and underdevelopment usually found in Africa... World Bank-IMF report[:] African countries not doing enough to meet their targets on poverty. UNICEF still gloomier[:] in Africa over 25% children under five still underweight, 'catastrophe for development' [and] in east/southern Africa number underweight actually increased. [T]his sort of statistic fires up Jeffrey Sachs(op.cit.), head of Millennium Project, [who contends] Africa's leap forward must begin... in parched and pestilential villages where up to 80% of poor Africans actually live. To this end, Sachs has set up 12 "research villages" in 10 African countries(map) to pioneer models of development that can be replicated by other villages in future. Another 66 villages added to experiment in clusters around original 12. Hope is for 1,000 such villages by 2009, with exponential growth thereafter. Each village will receive practical help from Project [at] $250/person over five years...Project trying to show how few simple reforms, seven in all, can substantially improve lives and provide livelihoods. These are: fertiliser and seed to improve food yield; anti-malarial bed nets; improved water sources; diversification from staple into cash crops; school feeding program; deworming for all; and introduction of new technologies, such as energy-saving stoves/mobile phones. [In] first Millennium village,.. incidence of malaria dropped by at least 50% since...bed nets. Food yield has more than doubled [and] school feeding program has [raised students'] exam results. [Signs of various improvements in] economic activity as well... Sachs concedes seven reforms can, in short term at least, be repeated only with 'resources from the outside'. This makes model unduly dependent on foreign aid[, but] there is hardly a better investment"; Economist 23 Sep 06"Technology Leapfrogs: Behind the Bleeding Edge"(Edit.16):-"[S]ome cases, particularly in developing world, when technological progress takes form of a leapfrog [-] adopting a new technology directly and skipping over the earlier, inferior versions... By far best-known example is that of mobile phones in developing world. Fixed-line networks poor or non-existent in many developing countries, so people have leapfrogged straight to mobile phones. Number of mobile phones now far outstrips number of fixed-line telephones in China/India/sub-Saharan Africa [Technology Quarterly(TQ) summary on mobile phones-PCs follows]. By very nature, mobile networks far easier/faster/cheaper to deploy than fixed-line networks. [Another leapfrog:] more energy-efficient light-emitting diodes (LEDS)[, which] could have [great] impact in parts of developing world that lack mains power/electric lighting. LEDS' greater energy efficiency makes it possible to run them from batteries charged by solar panels during the day [TQ LEDS-summaries follow]. So prospect of another leapfrog, as rural poor skip over electric grids and straight to a world of energy-efficient appliances run using local 'micropower' sources. Other leapfrogs include embrace by China/Brazil of open-source softwear; China's plan to build series of 'eco-cities' from scratch based on new green technologies [TQ eco-cities summary follows]. Being behind 'bleeding edge' of technological development can sometimes be good thing[:] early versions of a technology...can be avoided... Leapfrog technologies can also spread faster, as do not face competition from entrenched earlier systems. And leapfrogging straight to green technology means no need to dispose of the old, dirty one... Lesson [:] wrong to assume developing countries will follow same technological course as developed.[If] anticipate/facilitate leapfrogging, can prosper as result. "Splitting the Digital Difference" Computing: A variety of novel approaches aim to bridge the gap between mobile phones and PSs in the developing world (3-4 in 23 Sep 06; all items in TQ chapter)."Visions of Ecopolis" Technology and the Environment: China has ambitious plans to build a model 'eco-city' near Shanghai. how green will it be?(20-3). "An Even Brighter Idea" Lighting Technology: Light bulb is synonymous with invention. But, as this case history explains, it may lose out to the light-emitting diode, which is better in many ways. 'Light bulbs are among last devices that use vacuum tubes, an old technology that has been replaced in radios and most televisions'(26-8)."Lighting Up the World" Greatest impact of LED-based lighting could be in developing countries, where can be powered by batteries or solar panels(28).

Next item(drafted Oct 06),supported by varied Ottawans, is listed often as very broad issues are involved.

Christopher Spencer REASONS WHY ALL SOCIETIES ON EARTH MUST COOPERATE - IN TERMS OF BOTH THEIR WEALTH AND KNOWLEDGE - IN ORDER TO SURVIVE:-Brief paragraphs first identify some genuine and trans-species (but not simply idealistic) physical and emotional human traditions, confrontations, disasters, or prospects that raise globally-relevant threats. These are followed by a few relatively cheap and realistic, but world-wide and trans-human, policies. The challenges reflect the already serious - and often inter-related - concerns of everyone, everywhere: all human beings now face “global” threats in terms of: (a) mobile, unprecedented inter-human violence; (b) widespread, potentially global, mis-health; (c) dangers generated to the earth on which all survive.

(1) All the wealthier societies on the planet now possess grand and growing assets of both physical goods - far beyond essential human needs - and rapidly-expanding scientific/technical/ economic knowledge - enough to create/improve their comfort and health. It now appears possible, and universally profitable in terms of generating the good trade and health of all, to share such quantities of global assets with all who lack them, so all groups could fully address painful and globally-destabilizing needs. Even if competition were the pure motivation of large advanced companies, they would develop globally.

(2) Yet throughout the history of human beings, and contrary to the philosophy of the world’s strongest religions, four social factors have been dominant among the whole species: human groups have been mainly small (families or villages); their members have been grossly ignorant about almost all other groupscharacteristics, strengths and problems; they have exhibited deep and general dislike and often fear towards all other groups; and, above all, have felt no sense of responsibility for them. Violence against, or at least selfishness towards, other groups has been chronic - but is suddenly not beneficial.

(3) Now, for the first time in human history, the entire planet is massively/increasingly interdependent, not simply in terms of ‘globalization’ trade, but also regarding enormous travels/transfers of humans, goods and bacteria between societies. We are also now living in unprecedented planetwide situations where basic global knowledge is both vast and expanding - often via TV/Internet/phones in even isolated villages. All human beings, however rich/poor, educated/formally ignorant, global travellers/physically fixed, are potentially aware of other groups with greater/other power or assets - and/or apparent harm or nonrelationship - in their own societies or another. Any group can feel independent/hurt/frustrated/ opinioned toward another, physically or emotionally. Nature/scale of interdependence: widely unknown.

(4) An unprecedented but expanding global fact is that ills, ranging from the mildly-harmful to the multi-fatal, can now easily be transferred via weapons, explosives, poisons, virus, serious misuse of nature. The deliberate, unknown or accidental transfer of critical action to virtually anywhere else on earth, by land, sea or air - could in future be, deliberately or otherwise, generated or passed by groups or individuals that may or may not wish to inflict some ‘pain’ on others. Victims of such action/accident can be in or from any society at all, and can hurt any type or groups of humans, animals, machines, transport, buildings, towns or key liquids/gases/ foods/medicines/power-sources etc. The effects of deliberate or accidentalspreads” or organized action range from minor diseases to mass murders.

(5) Any group will ultimately be responsible for “using” any of a variety of existing or developable actions against/in any society on earth. Hence an essential way to reduce the world-wide threat - apart from easing sharp and dangerous ill-feelings - must involve help in reducing serious/perceived pain/poverty/ (potential)disease/global misuse. It would also involve obtaining - through cooperative intelligence/law among all regimes everywhere - advance information about relevant threats -since any/all societies may somehow be threatened. But the most defensive and selfishly-beneficial means of easing global threats is for the wealthier/more informed to provide the funds/goods/skills necessary to accelerate equity - by both offering and obtaining relevant knowledge. Richer societies would no longer live safely while ignoring any others’ agonies - nor even suffer from giving assistance. Isolation is no longer an option - anywhere - for any rich and/or traditional society. We must all think, at least minimally, as global citizens.

Economist 09 Dec 06“Mobile Telecoms: Out Of Africa”(67-8):-official summary:“A new kind of telecoms operator is evolving in Africa and the Middle East”. Highlights(from first para):“That mobile phones transforming economic and social life in Africa now widely understood. Less well known are companies leading the charge. Following flurry of deals over past 18 months, five African/Middle Eastern operators now vying for supremacy. These regional powerhouses have worked out how to earn princely sums in world’s poorest places. So far mostly been too busy signing up new subscribers to compete vigorously with each other. But that is now starting to change, and industry preparing for round of consolidation as operators start to attack each other’s markets”; Economist 09 Dec 06“India’s Telecoms Boom: Talk Is Cheap”(68):-official summary:“India leads the world in mobile-phone subscriber growth”. Highlights (from first para): “With 6.6m new subscribers/month, India in grip of unprecedented mobile-phone boom. Figures released Sep showed India had overtaken China in new subscribers/month for first time. India still lags behind China in total subscribers, with mere 136m...compared with China’s 449m. But India’s government confident gap can be quickly closed, and meet target of 500m phone subscribers by 2010"; Economist 27 Jan 2007“Mobile Phones in Africa: Roaming Wide”(48):-official summary:“A plan is afoot to create a pan-African market based on mobile phones”. Highlights:“The technology revolution may be coming to poor countries via the mobile phone, not the personal computer, as it did in rich ones... Africa’s surge in mobile-phone use may unleash the same sort of business energy, but tailored to local needs... TradeNet, a software company based in Accra, Ghana, will unveil a simple sort of eBay for agricultural products across a dozen countries in west Africa. It lets buyers and sellers indicate what they are after and their contact information, which is sent to all relevant subscribers as an SMS text message in one of four languages. Interested parties can then reach others directly to do a deal... Mobile-phone use in sub-Saharan Africa is soaring. Whereas only 10% of population had network coverage in 1999, today more than 60% have it, a figure expected to exceed 85% in 2010... The price of economic development may be junk mail by mobile phone”; Economist 03 Feb 07"North Korea and the Internet: Weird But Wired"(43):-"Kim Jong Il believes there are three kinds of fool in the 21st century: smokers, the tone deaf, and the computer-illiterate... Internet dating is only one of the surprises about the internet in North, a country about as cut off from the virtual world as it is from the real one... In most schools, computer courses are now compulsory. In Pyongyang, visitors are supposed to be able to surf freely through the 30m official texts,... local version of the Library of Congress. [Some cyber cafes] are packed with children playing computer games. But the world wide web is still largely absent. [Those few] North Koreans with access to the outer world are supposed to plunder the web to feed Kwangmyong - a clever way to disseminate technical information to research institutes, factories and schools without losing control... In some places, North‛s internet economy seems to be overheating. Near the northern border, Chinese cell phones/prepaid phone cards needed are a hot black-market item, despite government efforts to ban them"; Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected"; Economist 29 Sep 07"Civil Liberties: Surveillance and Privacy: Learning to Live With Big Brother"(62-4):-official sum: "[L]ooks at the new technologies for collecting personal information, and the dangers of abuse". Highlights:"[S]marter technology... that has been designed to fight 21st century war is being used in the fight against crime [-] police are experimenting with use of miniature remote-controlled drone aircraft, fitted with video cameras and infra-red night vision, to detect 'suspicious' behaviour in crowds... Most of the time, convenience of electronic technology, and perceived need to fight the bad guys, seems to outweigh any worries about where it could lead. [R]adio-frequency identification (REID) microchips implanted in human beings to... keep track of old people/give employees access to high-security area... Some want everyone implanted with REIDs as answer to identify theft. [E]lectronic devices already being used to keep tabs on ordinary citizens as never before... The more data collected/stored, greater the potential for 'data mining'... to discover patterns/predict future behaviour. [On] 11 Sep 01, it became widely accepted that against deadly/globally networked enemy, every stratagem was needed [and that] processing personal information... suddenly seemed indispensable. [US] FBI could soon access 20b pieces of information, all churned/sorted/analysed to predict who might one day turn into terrorist. New version, STAR, using information drawn from both private/public databases... In age of global terror, when governments desperately trying to pre-empt future attacks, such profiling has become a favourite tool. But... inaccurate when comes to individuals [and] unreliable when sniffing out terrorist plots, which uncommon/rarely well-defined profile. [M]istakes are rife... Another worry: information on people used to be gathered selectively.,. now indiscriminately. [C]ameras less important issue than emergence of 'database state'[:] personal records of citizens encoded/too easily accessible. DNA also increasingly popular tool to help detect terrorists/solve crime. [P]roposed best way to prevent discrimination is to include whole population in DNA database... But DNA less reliable as a crime detection tool than most people think... More disturbing for most [US citizens] are greatly expanded powers government has given itself over 6 years to spy on [them]. [After legal debate,] ordinary will continue to be spied on without need for warrants - now legal. [In Britain, seems] to worry people[:] sheer volume of information now being kept on them and degree to which accessible to an ever wider group of individuals/agencies... Most democratic countries now have comprehensive data-protection and/or privacy laws[:] strict rules for collection/storage/use of personal data. Intelligence agencies... usually exempt [and] no data ever really secure. [E]rosion of individual privacy has accelerated enormously since [01] but security say many terrorist plots foiled and lives saved. Privacy is a modern 'right' [though] few outside civil-liberties community seem really worried about its loss now [and] the potential for abuse is huge and the safeguards paltry"; Economist 13 Oct 07"Civil Liberties: Freedom of Speech: The Tongue Twisters"(66-7):-official sum:"The difficulty of reconciling traditional freedoms of expression with the new demands of national security". Highlights:"In countries at war, freedoms of the press and of speech often restricted... Al-Qaeda's attacks of 11 Sep 01, by precipitating a 'war on terror', also raised questions - both legal and moral - about the role of the media in free societies. Several Western governments used national security as justification for limiting certain sorts of public information/public speech. Press itself has... sometimes refused to accept limits on its freedom of expression;.. sometimes has accepted them. If [accept] the lip service almost all countries pay to a free press - 160 UN members have ratified International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights - then freedom of expression has had a tough time... UN for first time issued statement condemning the targeting of journalists and calling for the prosecution of their killers... To some degree, the global increase in the number of journalists being killed, kidnapped and otherwise harassed may signify that more journalists at work, and growing bolder... Attacks on media, Freedom House points out, are not only bad in themselves; they are also a sign of worse to come: other democratic institutions. In repressive countries, internet has often been greeted as a wonderful way to bypass government control... For a while, relatively immune to regulation[, but] an academic think-tank says that censorship of internet has spread from just a handful of countries five years ago to 26 nations. Some... now blocking entire internet services. It is not surprising that such countries are suppressing freedom of expression... US gives greater protection to freedom of expression than any other country... Even so, a Century Foundation [man claims,] Bush's attempts 'to intimidate/punish the media, or at least to manipulate/mislead it, represents one of most concerted assaults on [constitution]"[, and] number of documents being stamped secret or classified has almost quadrupled... For many,.. administration has tilted balance too far towards maintaining'certain information...in confidence'... In Britain, freedom of expression has been under attack... It has now gone further [than US]... At first meeting of UNGA, delegates described freedom of expression as 'the touchstone of all human rights'. In practice, that freedom has never been totally unfettered... Under European Convention on Human Rights, freedom of expression is subject to a wide range of possible restrictions, including national laws banning speech likely to incite/'stir up' hatred against people... Since 01, these sorts of restrictions expanded to apply to Muslims... Free-speech critics insisted some element of intent be involved, claiming otherwise religious works... could be deemed unlawful... Sometimes the press has decided to censor itself... Attempts to gag press in democratic countries usually fail"; Vijay Vaitheeswaran"Special Report: On Innovation: Something New Under the Sun"(1-20) The Economist 13 Oct 07:-official sum:"Innovation, long the preserve of technocratic elites, is becoming more open. This will be good for the world". Highlights: "Rapid and disruptive change is now happening across new and old businesses. Innovation is becoming both more accessible and more global. This... releases the untapped ingenuity of people everywhere and could help solve some of world's weightiest problems... North America still leads the world in research spending, but the big labs' advantage over their smaller rivals and the developing world is being eroded by two powerful forces. First is globalisation, especially the rise of China and India... Second is rapid advance of information technologies, which are spreading far beyond internet and into older industries. [I]nnovation can involve plenty of clever gadgets/gizmos. [I]nnovation is not... invention. New products might be an important part of the process, but they are not the essence of it. Much innovation happens in processes and services. Novelty of some sort does matter, although it might involve an existing idea from another industry or country... OECD says innovation can be defined as 'new products/business processes/organic changes that create wealth or social welfare'. [Firms'] R&D organisations... had successes, and many companies still spend... on corporate research[, but] the process is slow and insular. [Now R&D] is giving way to the more democratic, even joyously anarchic, new model of innovation[; and] move to an open approach to innovation is far more promising. [S]tudies do show that a large and rising share of growth - and with it living standards - over recent decades is the result of innovation. Innovative firms also tend to outperform their peers... Indeed, OECD experts believe most innovation has been caused by globalisation and new technologies[:] in 1990s, 'innovations - in technology as well as products and business processes - boosted productivity. As productivity rose, competition intensified, bringing fresh waves of innovation'. That is why innovation matters. [T]he 'knowledge economy' is becoming more important. Indeed, rich countries may not be able to compete with rivals offering low-cost products/services if they do not learn to innovate better and faster. But... it is not necessarily a zero sum game. Because the well of human ingenuity is bottomless, innovation strategies that tap into hitherto neglected intellectual capital and connect it better with financial capital can help both rich and poor countries prosper... In an age of mass innovation the world may even find profitable ways to deliver solutions to the century's greatest needs, including sustainable clean energy, affordable and universal healthcare for ageing populations and quite possibly entirely new industries. The one natural resource that the world has left in infinite quantity is human ingenuity"; Economist 05 Jan 08"Global Migration: Keep the Borders Open"(Edit.8-9):-off.sum:"The backlash against immigrants in the rich world is a threat to prosperity everywhere". Highlights: "[A]round the rich world, immigration has been rising to the top of voters' lists of concerns - which, for those who believe that migration greatly benefits both recipient and donor countries, is a worry in itself".[Editorial draws top attention to"Special Report: Migration" (Unique 1-16):-the 8 sections' titles/off.sums:"Open Up"/"Despite a growing backlash, the boom in migration has been mostly good for both sending/recipient countries, says Adam Roberts". "Of Bedsheets and Bison Grass Vodka"/"Rich economies gain from high levels of migration, but the benefits are unevenly spread". "The Politics of the Gun"/"Migration has once again become a touchy political issue". "Keep Out"/"Voters like the idea of tougher borders, but the cost is high and the benefits are limited". "Send Me a Number"/Migrants' remittances help ease poverty back home, but they are not a cure-all". "You Don't Have To Be Rich"/"Developing countries attract migrants too". "Circulate Or Integrate?"/"A choice of migration policies". "The Long Term"/"Too much or not enough?" Other relevant items in same issue: "Briefing: Germany's Jews: Latkes and Vodka"(40-2)/"Immigrants from former Soviet Union are transforming Jewish life in Germany". "Immigration Controls: Guarding British Soil"(47-8)/"Britain's immigration regime, long one of Europe's most liberal, is to tighten up. Will it secure the jobs of British workers - or those of MPs?"] [M]ost often migration is about young, motivated, dynamic people seeking to better themselves by hard work [and h]istory has shown [it] encourages prosperity. Tens of millions of Europeans who made it to the New World in 19th and 20th centuries improved their lot, just as... today. Many migrants return home with new skills, savings, technology and bright ideas. Remittances in 2006 were worth at least $260b - more in many countries than aid and foreign investment combined. Letting in migrants does vastly more good for the world's poor than [foreign aid]. The movement also helps the rich world... Indeed, advanced economies compete vigorously for outsiders' skills... Low-skilled are needed too, especially in farming, services and care for children and the elderly. [So w]hy the backlash? Partly because politicians prefer to pander to xenophobic fears than to explain immigration's benefits. But not all fear of foreigners is irrational. Voters have genuine concerns... To keep borders open, fears have to be acknowledged and dealt with... [I]t is not just futile but also foolish to build taller fences to keep them out. Better [to open] more routes for legal, perhaps temporary, migration... Politicians in rich countries should also be honest about, and quicker to raise spending to deal with, the strains that immigrants place on public services... The social integration of new arrivals is also crucial... Better to seek ways to isolate the extremist fringe... Above all, perspective is needed. The vast population movements of past four decades... have offered a better life for millions of migrants and enriched receiving countries both culturally and materially. But... politicians need... to deal honestly with the problems sometimes caused"; Economist 19 Jan 08"Democracy in Retreat: Freedom Marches Backward"(Edit.12):-off.sum: "Why the setback is likely to be temporary". Highlights:"[US] Freedom House's closely watched annual review confirms 2007 was the second year during which freedom retreated in most of the world, reversing a democratic tide that had looked almost unstoppable during 1990s following collapse of communism and breakup of Soviet Union. [Attention then stressed on: "Measuring Liberty: When Freedom Stumbles"(63-4):-off.sum:"Civil and democratic rights are in retreat, says an organisation with strong, though not uncontested, views on the matter".] [N]ews is grim[, b]ut can be a mistake to extrapolate too much from the advances and retreats of a single year or two. [T]wo brighter observations. First, most people in most places still want democracy [-] evident not only in what people say, even in conservative Muslim countries[, but] also reflected in what people do[Kenya, Afghanistan, Iraq]. [C]ountries now riven by political violence ... does not prove their voters cannot grasp the democratic idea... Where the strong are willing to use violence to thwart popular will [Myanmar] or provoke violent reaction [Kenya], idea itself is harder to squash or suborn. In many newly democratic parts of the world [Latin America], its roots are spreading wider and burrowing deeper. [S]econd, there are many reasons why societies advancing fitfully towards democracy can suffer setbacks[: the] transitions are disorderly [Russia, Iraq]. But autocracies suffer setbacks too [Pakistan, Thailand, Bangladesh]. Freedom House may well be right that democracy is on the back foot right now. In the longer run, its appeal is undiminished". Particularly relevant is Johns Hopkins University's Francis Fukuyama "A Quiet Revolution: Latin America's Unheralded Progress"Foreign Affairs Vol.86/No.6 (Nov/Dec 07). This is careful/positive review of Michael Reid Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America's Soul(Yale Univ. Press 07) 352 pp. Review's official summary:"Latin America is deepening its democratic institutions, integrating into the global economy, and finally addressing endemic social inequalities - in short, turning into something of a success story even as most outsiders look the other way"; Economist 02 Feb 08"The Internet in China: Alternative Reality"(69-70):-off.sum:"China will soon boast more internet users than any other country. But usage patterns inside China are different from those elsewhere". Highlights:"[By end-07,] internet users... reached 210m,... up by more than 50% on 06 and more than 3 times number for India... Within few months,.. China will have more users than US[ and,] at just 16%, rapid growth likely to continue for some time. [N]o surprise, but done in a very different way from other countries [-]largely result government's repressive approach towards information/entertainment. News is censored... Internet itself also tightly controlled. Access to many foreign websites restricted; Google's site filters its results to exclude politically sensitive material... Yet it is limitations... that make internet so popular in China[:] internet fills gaps and provides what is unavailable elsewhere, particularly for young people. More than 70% of Chinese internet users are under 30, precisely the opposite of US. [O]bvious use is to distribute free pirated films/TV shows/music... China's censors... unable to stem flow of pirated foreign media. [P]iracy starting to worry government,.. because availability of free foreign content is holding back development of domestic media industry. [M]aking money online, biggest market involves delivery of mobile-internet content to mobile phones. Over 1/2billion mobile-phone users; more than 1/2 then use phones to buy ringtones/jokes/pictures... Another big field: online multiplayer games [-]so popular, government started worry aboutimpact on adults' productivity/children's education... Although constraints on... hard news, internet sites provide steady supply of gossip, features, dabs of propaganda, slightly salacious stories/photos; constantly testing boundaries of what is permissible. [M]ost dynamic area, and hardest for outsiders to understand, is online communities. [F]or many users in China, internet not truly a worldwide web; only as wide as China[, but] internet community evidently a world unto itself"; Economist 09 Feb 08"Technology and Development: The Limits of Leapfrogging"(Edit.12-3):-off.sum:"Spread of new technologies often depends on availability of older ones". Highlights: "Mobile phone frequently... good example of technology's ability to transform the fortunes of people in developing world. [I]t has enabled [poor] countries to skip the fixed-line technology of 20th century and move straight to mobile technology of 21st. Alas, mobile phone turns out to be rather unusual... There are some other examples of leapfrog technologies that can promote development - local small-scale electricity generation based on solar panels or biomass, for example - but may not be many. World Bank points out it is presence of a solid foundation of intermediate technology that determines whether latest technologies become widely diffused. [See: "Briefing: Technology in Emerging Economies: Of Internet Cafés and Power Cuts"(75-7):-off.sum:"Emerging economies are better at adopting new technologies than at putting them into widespread use".] Computers/broadband links not much use without a reliable electrical supply, and latest medical gear is not terribly helpful [if] lacks basic sanitation and health-care facilities... World Bank looked at 28 examples of new technologies that achieved a market penetration of at least 5% in the developed world, and found 23 of them went on to manage a penetration of over 50%. Then considered 67 new technologies that had achieved a 5% penetration in the developing world, and found only 6 of them went on to reach 50%. Although new technologies are often adopted by a small minority in poor countries, they then fail to achieve widespread diffusion... World Bank concludes: capacity to absorb and benefit from new technology depends on availability of more basic forms of infrastructure. Clear implications for development policy[:] with technology, as with education, health care and economic development, short-cuts are rare"; Economist 12 Apr 08"Special Report on Mobile Telecoms: Nomads At Last"(Special 1-18):-off.sum:"Wireless communication is changing the way people work, live, love and relate to places - and each other, says Andreas Kluth". Highlights of introductory essay: "Urban nomads have started appearing only in past few years. [T]hey are defined not by what they carry but by what they leave behind, knowing that environment will provide it... Modern nomads carry almost no paper because they access their documents on their laptop computers, mobile phones or online. Increasingly, don't even bring laptops. Many... travel with only 'smart phone'. If need arises for large keyboard, they sit down in front of nearest available computer anywhere in world, open its web browser and access all their documents online. [As] many nomads are frequent flyers, [airlines] now introducing in-flight Wi-Fi... A modern nomad...may never have left [location since] how far he moves is completely irrelevant. [N]evertheless has a new and surprisingly different relationship to time, to place and to other people... Sociologists are trying to figure out how mobile communications are changing interactions between people [since] has implications for society at large. [Others] investigating... whether it makes young people... more autonomous or more dependent... Activists are trying to piggyback on the ubiquity of nomadic tools to improve the world, even as they worry about same tools in the hands of the malicious. Special... explores ramifications of mobile technology rather than the technologies themselves. [N]ew generation of wireless technologies is already poised to take over[, and] the airwaves are now among society's most important assets... Research in Motion [has] launched iPhone, with its radically new and user-friendly touch interface[;] Google received 50 times more web-search requests from iPhones this year than from any other mobile handset... Now mobile phone is on course to replace PC as the primary device for getting online. [M]ore than half world's population now subscribe to mobile-phone service, so the internet at last looks set to change whole world. [M]ost wonderful thing... is that consumers can increasingly forget about how it works and simply take advantage of it". Other essays' titles/off.sum:"Labour Movement": "Joys/drawbacks of being able to work from anywhere"."The New Oases":"Nomadism changes buildings, cities and traffic". "Family Ties":"Kith and kin get closer, with consequences for strangers". "Location, Location, Location" :"It matters". "A World of Witnesses":"When everybody becomes a nomadic monitor". "Homo Mobilis":"As language goes, so does thought". Editorial:"A Wireless World: Our Nomadic Future"(16)draws carefully on Special Report, and concludes:"Will it be a better life? In some ways, yes. Will liberate ever more knowledge workers[; but those] who are 'always on' all too often end up - mentally - anywhere but here. [M]ight bring you much closer to family/ friends; but may make it harder to bring in outsiders... As for politics, tools... can improve the world [e.g.] turn practically everybody into a potential human-rights activist... But same tools have dark side[i.e.]promises heaven of new freedom but also... hell of constant surveillance"; Economist 31 May 08"Mobile Telecoms: Halfway There"(68-9):-off.sum:"How to promote the spread of mobile phones among the world's poorest". Highlights:"[Very soon] the number of mobile phones in use will exceed 3.3 billion, or half the world's population. No technology has ever spread faster around the globe: took less than two decades to reach this degree of penetration. [Already plans] on getting the other half connected. [T]hat means finding ways to make mobile phones more affordable... The single largest barrier... is the cost of a handset... Cheapest phones now cost less than $30[;] voice-only handsets could fall to $10 in five years. But affordable phones are only part of the picture[:] operators in developing countries have been inventive in efforts to reach rural customers... For operators to make a profit at such low prices, network infrastructure must be cheap to install and operate [e.g.] share network infrastructure to cut costs; small, low-cost base-stations specially for use in developing world. [A]lso new business models, such as having a local entrepreneur run a base-station and provide services [billing and handset maintenance]. Yet... governments keep adding costs - mainly by levying taxes and customs duties. Particularly high in sub-Saharan Africa [where] average ratio of tax payments to operator revenues is 30% [and] on average the mobile industry... contributes 7% of national tax revenue. [E]asy to explain: governments have to tax something, and mobile phones are an easy target, since operators' billing systems do all the hard work. [Yet] global mobile penetration will reach 75% by 2011 [-] a potent force for economic development in the world's poorest countries. But more can be done to exploit it... By cutting back on mobile-specific taxes and tariffs, governments can help [economic growth/access to communications]".

The Economist 30 Aug 08"Poverty: The Bottom 1.4 Billion"(70):-off.sum:"The world is poorer than we thought, the World Bank discovers". Highlights:"In Apr 07, World Bank announced that 986m worldwide suffered from extreme poverty - first time count dropped below 1b. On 26 Aug 08, grim news to report: 'developing world is poorer than we thought'. The number of poor was almost 1.4 billion in 05[, but simply meaning] that the plight is now better understood. Bank has improved its estimates of the cost of living around the world, thanks to a vast effort to compare the price of hundreds of products... in 146 countries. In many poor countries the cost of living was steeper than previously thought, which meant more people fell short of poverty line... The researchers now prefer a yardstick more typical of the 15 poorest countries that have credible poverty lines. By this definition, people are poor if cannot match the standard of living of someone living on $1.25 a day in US in 05... Discovery of another 400m poor will not satisfy some of the bank's critics, who think it still undercounts poverty. Its cost-of-living estimates are based on the prices faced by a 'representative household', whose consumption mirrors national spending. But the poor are not representative. [Since buying in smaller quantities, pay more]". Also directly relevant to serious global poverty: "Global Health: The Price of Being Well"(59-60):- off.sum:"Is it time for a new paradigm for health and development? A heavyweight panel with an egalitarian ideology claims to have found one". Highlights: "[R]eport released 28 Aug 08 by [Commission on Social Determinants of Health which] asked by WHO to take a broad look at the question of inequality and health. [P]anel issued a call to arms: 'Closing the gap in a generation'. [L]ife of a slum dweller...is generally shorter, nastier, more brutish than the earthly span of a rich person... But why, asks panel, [does the poorer] tend to die more than two decades sooner?.. Explanation, according to [panel], is not merely a matter of income. Nor can it be reduced to the varying capacities of health systems. In addition,.. there are social/political/economic forces that ostensibly have little to do with health but can still end up determining 'whether a child can grow up and develop to its full potential and live a flourishing life, or whether its life will be blighted'. To reduce the risk of latter, the experts have drawn up a long wish list. They call on governments to improve the quality of everyday life, particularly for women/girls in poor countries, through investment in child care/education, and by insisting on better working conditions. They stress the need to 'tackle the inequitable distribution of power/money/resources' - through better governance, support for civil society, and more equitable economic policies. [Article discusses several criticisms of report, but concludes:] it would be a pity if the new report's saner ideas were obscured by the authors' quixotic determination to achieve perfect political, economic and social equity". Global poverty from aid point of view: Economist 06 Sep 08"The Future of Aid: A Scramble in Africa"(69):-off.sum:"Donors and recipients try to get to grips with the chaos in international aid". Highlights:"The development-aid business is a shambles. High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Accra agreed on that.The meeting was the first follow-up by 100-odd countries/agencies/NGOs to an accord on making aid more effective, reached in Paris in 05. [O]fficial development assistance has been rising modestly[, but] the problem is that aid is fragmenting: too many agencies, financing too many small projects, using too many different procedures. [OECD reports] 18 poor countries each has 25 or more official donors[;] number of aid projects financed [up] to 80,000 over past 10 years... UN reckoned 37,000 international NGOs in 00 [- more now. I]ncreasingly important to the aid business, NGOs spent $27b of aid in 05. Total official assistance $84b is evidence of western generosity, but it is swamping poor countries... Paris declaration laid down number of principles for making aid work better... Some of targets are sensible[: e.g.] donors... using their own experts (not local people) to build, run and evaluate operations. [B]iggest problem: too many aid agencies; challenge is coordinating them. [B]est way of coping with the fragmentation of aid is for recipient countries to lay down a set of national development priorities and ask donors to fit in with their plans... Still, the picture is not all doom and gloom[: e.g.] by 06, the no-strings-attached share of aid had reached 53%". Economist 20 Sep 08"Global Business: In Praise of the Stateless Multinational"(Edit.20):-off.sum:"Not without its flaws, but infinitely preferable to the state-bound version". Highlights: "[T]he idealistic spirit of international cooperation [is described by interviewed executives of two outstanding] emerging-market multinational[s.] Lenovo and Arcelor Mittal are at leading edge of a new phase in the evolution of the multinational corporation"[, as argued in "Special Report on Globalisation: A Bigger World"(unique pages 1-26). Introductory essay's official summary: "Globalisation is entering a new phase, with emerging-market companies now competing furiously against rich-country ones. Matthew Bishop asks what that will mean for capitalism". Other essay titles:-off.sums:"The New Champions":-"Emerging markets are producing examples of capitalism at its best". "Ins and Outs":-"Acronyms BRIC [Brazil/Russia/India/China] out all over". "The Empire Strikes Back":-"Why rich-world multinationals think they can stay ahead of the newcomers". "Oil, Politics and Corruption":-"Bad capitalism carries its own risks". "The Rise of State Capitalism":-"Coming to grips with sovereign-wealth funds". "Cities in the Sand":-"A new sort of investment partnership". "Opportunity Knocks":-"As long as the protectionists don‛t spoil it". Back to Editorial:] "Today the goal is to create... the 'globally integrated enterprise' - a single firm in which work is sourced wherever it is most efficient. [S]enior managers will increasingly be spread around the world, which will require them to learn new tricks... Some people assume that stateless multinationals inevitably compete away standards in a race to the bottom. It is true that multinationals tend to shop around for taxes, but in other ways they are usually sticklers for good behaviour. Encouragingly, firms from emerging markets are finding that a globally integrated company needs a single culture... A globally integrated firm cannot allow corrupt practices by employees in some countries and not others, so it must outlaw them everywhere. [I]t cannot enforce religious practices/holidays/different ways of life, so it must preach tolerance. [T]he real threat comes from overly chummy links between a state and its multinationals... Rather than fear the stateless corporation, people would be wise to do all they can to make them feel at home". Also relevant:"Emerging Markets:Beware Falling BRICs"(92). Economist 22 Nov 08"Mobile Phones: The Battle for the Smart-Phone's Soul"(76-7):-off.sum: "Competition heats up to provide the software that powers mobile phones". Highlight:"[N]ot all is doom and gloom in the mobile-phone industry. On the contrary, it is going through two important shifts that promise to generate much growth and profit in the years to come. First, even though overall sales may fall in 2009, sales of 'smart' phones - those that allow you to surf [and use in many ways] the internet... are booming. [T]he market for smart-phones will grow... to $95 billion in 2013... Second, and more important, as handsets get smarter the nature of the industry will change. It will be less about hardware and more about software, services and content. [T]his is why... a fierce battle between operating systems for handsets has broken out... The best outcome... is a continuing battle... And it is by innovating rapidly that the mobile-phone industry has the best chance of weathering recession". Economist 18 Apr 09"Technology and Medicine: Fixing Health Care"(Edit.13-4):-off.sum: "Technology has been a culprit behind runaway health costs. It might now help tame them". Highlights:"[D]emand for health care will only grow [globally, and rich and poor] governments are already having to adjust. The snag is the cost[, with two reasons] repeatedly: distorted payment systems.,.and a lack of proper competition. Medical device manufacturers often expect reimbursement for expensive new equipment on [strange] 'cost plus' basis, and drug companies enjoy temporary monopolies on new pills." Editorial then recommends: "Special Report on Health Care and Technology" (SR pages 1-18). Its chapters' titles and official summaries are as follows:"Medicine Goes Digital"(SR 3-4):-"The convergence of biology and engineering is turning health care into an information industry. Will be disruptive, says Vijay Vaitheewaran, but also hugely beneficial to patients". "HIT or Miss"(SR 4-6):-"Health reformers have long wanted to digitise medical records. They are getting closer". "Flying Blind"(SR 6-8):-"Digital medicine will improve medical care - and it may possibly revive drug discovery". "Getting Personal"(SR 9-11):-"The promise of quick and cheap genome sequencing". "A Doctor in Your Pocket"(SR 11-4):-"Developing countries are using mobile phones as a way of leapfrogging to personalised medicine". "Fantastic Journey"(SR 15-7):-"Medical technology is making medicine more portable, precise and personal". "Health 2.0"(SR 17-8):-"The arrival of digital medicine is already empowering patients - but will it also lead to better health?" Editorial again: "[Change is] finally under way, prompted by a host of information/communication technologies that should make health care much more portable, precise and personal. Spread of electronic medical records and emergence of a 'smart grid' for [medical information] should bring more transparency... Personal medical monitors and other devices should make it easier to treat expensive chronic diseases... Change is also being prompted by the willingness of doctors/politicians, especially in poorer countries, to apply at least some economic tests to medical spending". See: Health Care in China: Will Patients be Rewarded?"(45):-"The government's plans are still something of a mystery". "Dialysis in China: Free for Now"(45):-"How to embarrass government into providing health care". "Health Care in India: Lessons from a Frugal Innovator"(67-8):-"The rich world's bloated health-care systems can learn from India's entrepreneurs". Back to Edit:-"Britain... has championed use of basic economic appraisals[, and] Obama wants to expand comparative effectiveness studies and health technology assessments... Arrival of digital medicine promises to shake medical establishment to its roots,[handing] much more information over to patients themselves. But biggest savings will [come] from application of basic economics". Economist 26 Sep 09"The Power of Mobile Money"(Edit.13):-off.sum:"Mobile phones have transformed lives in the poor world. Mobile money could have just as big an impact". Highlights:-"[M]obile phones... in few short years became tools of economic empowerment for world's poorest. Compensate for inadequate infrastructure,.. allowing information to move more freely, markets more efficient, unleashing entrepreneurship. All has direct impact on economic growth [World Bank: extra 10 phones per 100 people in typical poor country boosts GDP by 0.8%]". More than 4 billion handsets are now in use worldwide, three-quarters in the developing world. For the major trends that are changing the current world, see also in this issue "A Special Report on Telecoms in Emerging Markets"(SR pages 1-19). Chapters' titles and official summaries: "Mobile Marvels"(SR 3-4):-"Poor countries have already benefited hugely from mobile phones. Now get ready for a second round, says Tom Standage". "Eureka Moments"(SR 4-8):-"How a luxury item became a tool of global development". "The Mother of Invention"(SR 8-12):-"Network operators in the poor world are cutting costs and increasing access in innovative ways". "Up, Up and Huawei"(SR 13-5):-"China has made huge strides in network equipment". "Beyond Voice"(SR 15-8):-"New uses for mobile phones could launch another wave of development". "Finishing the Job"(SR 18-9):-"Mobile-phone access will soon be universal. The next task is to do the same for the internet". Highlights:"The reason why mobile phones are so valuable to people in the poor world is that they are providing access to telecommunications for the very first time... The developing world's rural poor will account for most of the growth in the coming years[, and] the total reach 6 billion by 2013. Three trends in particular are reshaping the telecoms landscape. First, the spread of mobile phones in developing countries accompanied by the rise of home-grown mobile operators in China, India, Africa, Mideast that rival or exceed the industry's Western incumbents in size... Second trend is emergence of China's... telecoms-equipment-makers,.. which have entered the global stage [and] now have a growing reputation for quality/innovation... Third trend is development of new phone-based services, beyond voice calls/basic text messages, now becoming feasible because mobile phones are relatively widely available". To return to Editorial: "[A] new opportunity beckons: mobile money, which allows cash to travel as quickly as a text message... Mobile-money services [can] allow small retailers [in the developing world] to act rather like bank branches. They can take your cash, and by sending a special text message, credit it to your mobile-money account. You can then transfer money via text message to other registered users, who can withdraw it by visiting their own local shops. You can even send money to people not registered; they receive a text message with a code that can be redeemed for cash... Most successful example of mobile money is in Kenya [but] similar schemes are popular in Philippines and South Africa... Extending mobile money to other poor countries, particularly in Africa/Asia, would have a huge impact[:] faster/cheaper/safer way to transfer money than the alternatives... Mobile money also provides a stepping stone to formal financial services for billions who lack access to savings accounts/credits/insurance... Financial innovation has a bad reputation at the moment [RECESSION], because exotic derivatives were one of the causes of the credit crunch. But mobile money and other new ideas that could help the poor [see "Briefing: Financial Innovation and the Poor: A Place in Society" (83-4)] provide a useful reminder that financial innovation in itself is not always a bad thing... Some banks... have come to see mobile money not as a threat but as opportunity. [It] presents a shining opportunity to start a second wave of mobile-led development across the poor world". Economist 26 Sep 09"Climate Change: Avoiding a Crash at Copenhagen"(Edit.18):-off.sum "How to get negotiations on the right track for a deal". Highlights:"The diplomatic process leading up to the climate-change conference in Copenhagen in Dec is gathering speed[: at preparatory meetings] before try[ing for] a successor to the Kyoto protocol. [For report on a new plan to control serious carbon emissions:"Airlines Pledge to Cut Emissions: Almost Virtuous" (80):-off.sum"IATA, the trade body for airlines,.. promised that by 2050 the industry would cut its carbon emissions to 50% of 2005 levels".] [While] so much energy... is good[,] much is misdirected... if [they]continue to follow [flawed Kyoto] precepts too slavishly... Over past year [there] have been... efforts to avert serious climate change[, e.g. in US, Japan, China]. [For more on US/Chinese positions see also"Climate Change at the UN: Fine Words"(36).] But [US Senate, which must] ratify international treaties, [includes] many senators who do not much like [US draft] Waxman-Markey bill to curb emissions, and it is unlikely to be passed before the summit, if at all. [A] bust-up in Copenhagen would make it harder to get legislation passed next year. There is an alternative: moving the negotiations onto a different diplomatic track... Kyoto's approach has not... paid off... partly because the treaty left out big emissions sources such as deforestation. [See "Paying to Save Trees: Last Gasp for the Forest" (93-5):-off.sum"A new climate treaty could provide a highly effective way to reduce carbon emissions by paying people to not cut down forests".] [But Kyoto also faced problems] because potential participants were put off by the idea of internationally binding commitments. [Another proposed route:] All countries would come up with a 'national schedule' of programs, such as cap-and-trade and low-carbon regulations. Developed countries would also specify an amount by which they mean to reduce their emissions. These commitments would have the force of domestic law, but would not be subject to international sanctions... US legislators would find this more palatable; so would developing countries, which fear internationally binding commitments could be used as justifications for imposing tariffs on them. [For examples of already desperate states, see "East Africa's Drought: A Catastrophe is Looming"(59-60):-off.sum"Governments are at their wits' end to keep their hungry people alive... With rivers down to a trickle or drying up completely, dams are running out of water; some are empty. Turbines have shut down. Electricity throughout east Africa is patchier than usual... The high price of food and water is making governments more disliked... The drought cycle in east Africa has been contracting sharply".] Kyoto, in truth, has no teeth [and/or] it will not be enforced... China, while resisting... targets, may have done more to curb emissions growth than any other country in recent years... There is not much time before Copenhagen, but there is enough to open up an alternative track". Economist 03 Oct 09"Farmland and Climate Change: Seasonally Adjusted"(73-4):-off.sum "Global warming will make it harder to feed the world in 2050". Highlights:-"Oxfam has... compiled a litany of laments by poor farmers [in which they all say similar things:]'moderate, temperate seasons are shrinking... rainy seasons are shorter and more violent... making it more difficult to grow crops [and] difficult for them to know when best to plant'. As the earth warms up, many have feared that farmers will pay a high price... Higher temperatures might turn arid shrub lands into deserts, while improving the growing season in colder steppes[Canada/Russia]. [International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), US think tank,] has reached some sobering conclusions. In parts of the developing world, some crop yields in 2050 could be only half of their 2000 levels. Irrigation might not help: climate change will hit irrigated systems harder than rain-fed ones. And the hope that gainers from climate change will outweigh losers looks vain. [IPCC] says the oceans' surface temperature will rise by around 1.6°C by 2050. However this says nothing about the temperature and rainfall patterns that would result on farmland... In developing countries, IFPRI found, irrigated wheat in 2050 would yield 28-34% less than in 2000. For irrigated rice, the declines would be 14-19%... China's farming may... be more resilient than it sometimes appears. But South Asia, the world's most heavily populated region, looks vulnerable: IFPRI forecasts a possible 50% fall in its wheat yield in 2050... As patterns of production shift,.. more important to liberalise farm trade... But overall,.. the yield declines are so great that only another Green Revolution would be enough to offset them. [L]ooks possible: the technology to double or triple many crop yields exists in laboratories. The problem is to get it into the fields... G20 [has just] promised to put more taxpayer money into farm research, and other help for agriculture". Much regardless of climate-caused food challenges, see for instance "UN: World Hunger on the Rise for a Decade"Associated Press 14 Oct 09:-"Declining aid/investment in agriculture caused a steady increase in world hunger for more than a decade before the economic crisis pushed the ranks of the hungry to a record 1 billion,.. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization warned in [its State of Food Insecurity report for 2009]... FAO says global food output will have to increase by 70% to feed a projected population of 9.1 billion in 2050. To achieve that, poor countries will need $44 billion yearly of aid to agriculture... to increase access to irrigation systems, modern machinery, as well as to build roads and train farmers". "Fuel Subsidies: Fossilised Policy"03 Oct 09(74):-off.sum:-"The G20 decides to end subsidies on fossil fuels". Highlights:-"[At recent] meeting,.. world leaders decided to phase out fossil-fuel subsidies in 'medium term'... The G20... account for 80% of greenhouse-gas emissions. Most subsidies come from its poor and middle-income members[:] those outside OECD spend $310 billion a year on such subsidies, mainly for petrol... The subsidies mainly benefit middle-income and higher-earning urban types; the rural poor use little fossil fuel... Subsidising fossil fuels has many [practical] flaws... Rich countries subsidise... by much less. [Yet apart from financial savings,] eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies would result in a 10% reduction in global greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050". "[US] Regulating Greenhouse Gases: Enter the [Environmental Protection Agency or]EPA"03 Oct 09(38-40):-"EPA has announced that if Congress won't legislate to cut greenhouse gases, it will regulate anyway... A Supreme Court decision earlier this year required EPA, once it had established that carbon dioxide was a pollutant, to start regulating emissions from vehicles. Now administration has authorised EPA to start regulating gases from stationary sources too - power stations and industry, the origin of most emissions and backbone of US economy. The proposed rules, which would take effect in 2011, will focus on the country's biggest power stations and require them to prove that they have employed the best available technologies, or face penalties for not doing so. [A]dministration hopes matters will not get to that point[, but] if a bill were not passed before the climate conference in Copenhagen in Dec[, US] can take EPA's intervention, along with other measures, and argue that they add up to a substantial package of cuts". George Magnus The Age of Aging: How Demographics Are Changing the Global Economy and Our World(Singapore: John Wiley & Sons 09):-the official summary of the book's aims cannot be improved:"[It] explores a unique phenomenon in the history of mankind, and therefore one which is taking us all into uncharted territory. The combination of low or declining birth rates and rising life expectancy is producing rapid aging of the world's population and stagnation in the number of people of working age in Western societies. [It] examines the broad economic effects of aging, the main proposals for addressing the implications, and how aging societies will affect family and social structures". The style is carefully accurate and very rarely uses technical words, but the text contains concentrated facts/arguments all the time, i.e. it's not light reading. For these circumstances, I suspect most readers would consume each section slowly - but they can be read individually. Here are selected sub-titles: "Falling fertility, family structures, and modern times. Climate change, food, oil, and water join the fray. Global population changes. Aging and dependency. The demographic dividend for poorer countries. How the rich world is aging. Will labor shortages crimp growth? Will we be able to finance retirement? Later retirement is more than just a matter of law. Age-related spending: pensions/healthcare. Aging in emerging and developing nations. Economic consequences. Angry young men in an unstable region. Where globalization and demographics meet. Will immigration solve aging society problems? Demographic issues in religion and international security. Insecurity, inequality, and changing family structures. Jack A.Goldstone"The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World"(31-43) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-official summary:"Twenty-first-century will be affected by four major demographic trends: the relative demographic weight of the world's developed countries is dropping; those countries' labor forces are aging and declining; the populations of the poorest, youngest, and most heavily Muslim countries are growing the most; and for the first time in history, the world is becoming more urban than rural. Policymakers will have to adapt current global institutions to these new realties". Goldstone is Virginia E. and John T.Hazel, Jr., Professor at the George Mason School of Public Policy. Jagdish Bhagwati"Banned Aid: Why International Assistance Does Not Alleviate Poverty"(120-125) Foreign Affairs Vol.89/No.1 (Jan/Feb 10):-Review Essay of Dambisa Moyo: Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa (Farrar, Straus & Giraux 09, 208pp. $24.00). Official summary:"The idea that foreign aid can be used to promote development seems reasonable. But as the Zambian economist Moyo argues, it is flawed - not just because corrupt dictators divert aid for nefarious or selfish purposes but also because even in reasonably democratic countries, aid creates perverse incentives and unintended consequences". [In other words, while the deeply experienced and global-level economist Bhagwati ultimately rejects Moyo's proposal to terminate all aid within five years, he shares many of her criticisms of its errant policies by identifying several unfortunate motives that drove the donations. He also feels that she does not assign sufficient blame to the terrible faults of many of the African leaders involved.] Bhagwati is Senior Fellow in International Economics at the Council on Foreign Relations and University Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University. He served on the UN secretary-general's Advisory Panel on International Support for the New Partnership for Africa's Development 2005-06. For an annotated guide to this topic, see "What to Read on Foreign Aid" at www.foreignaffairs.com/readinglists/foreign-aid.




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