This selection first highlights information found in the MAJOR ISSUES portion of the bibliography that throws particular light on the nature, motives and actions of groups like Al-Qaeda. Second, it identifies selected articles from the New York Times, Economist, Associated Press and Reuters that relate to Osama bin Laden, starting one year prior to the incidents, in order to give you quick access to what was publicly known or suspected about his aims and activities prior to 11 Sep 01.

(1) Bruce Hoffman, Inside Terrorism (London: Victor Gollancz, 1998):-a broad but expert introduction to the nature, evolution, activities and future of terrorism by a world authority. It includes: terrorism’s many characteristics and definitions; the“internationalization”of terrorism, particularly by the PLO; the growing and very lethal role of zealous religious terrorists including Islamic extremists; the essential role of the media; terrorists’ changing tactics, targets and technologies; the future and particularly the potential of WMD. Economist 15 Aug 98:“The New Terrorism”(17-9):-article warns that“new”terrorism(e.g. recent attacks on US embassies Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania-both blamed on bin Laden)will be simultaneously more deadly/elusive than past forms. Big changes are underway in both motivation and means."In its latest mutation, politically motivated violence is vague about its long-term aims, but utterly ruthless in its short-term intentions...[A]new variety of killers apparently see destruction as an end in itself"(17),having amorphous or strongly anti-societal aims. Economist 29 Aug 98:“Punish and be Damned”(Editorial: 15, plus five relevant articles: 42,43,44,45,52):-published after the US military raids on bin Laden-related factory in Sudan and militants’ training camps in Afghanistan in reaction to terrorist attacks on embassies in Africa. The Editorial assesses the value of violent reprisals to major acts of terrorism causing global implications and horror, but where capture of the perpetrators is difficult. "If it resorts to punishment raids without the best of reasons [the aggrieved state] risks finding itself increasingly friendless in truly important disputes.... Vigilance, intelligence and...determined pursuit of terrorists through the courts may pay off handsomely in the long run - without putting at risk the world's sense of outrage and the help that comes with it". Bernard Lewis,“Licence to Kill: Usama bin Ladin’s Declaration of Jihad”in Foreign Affairs Vol.77/No.6(Nov/Dec 1998):-offers a valuable historical and religious gloss for the amazing, if largely ignored, declaration of jihad against“the Jews and the Crusaders”(sic)issued by bin Ladin(suspected of bombing the US embassies in Africa)and several Islamist leaders. The statement accuses the US of occupying, plundering and humiliating Islam’s holiest territory (i.e. Arabia)and planning to repeat(sic)the slaughter of a million(sic)Iraqis, for religious(sic) and economic reasons, and[of course]to serve Israel. Fatwa:“To kill Americans and their allies, both civil and military, is an individual duty of every Muslim who is able, in any [possible] country”(p.15). A specific demand for mass terror. Ian O. Lesser et al., Countering the New Terrorism (Santa Monica: RAND, 1999):-while written for USAF, most of the information and conclusions - products of decades of research, top experts and masses of material-are both timely and valuable for any person/body concerned with terrorism. Trends-characteristics: diversified structures/motives, and more lethal(WMD potential); geopolitically changing in origins/locations/targets-so new risks; fewer state sponsors, clear ideological/nationalist agendas or tight organizations; instead: diffused membership/ sponsorship, varied/ vague/religious aims, decentralized network structures. Advice: start prevention by reducing causes; strengthen deterrence e.g. by selective targeting; stress eliminating WMD danger; develop better surveillance, pooled Intelligence, allied cooperation, so you can retaliate when/where effective, make international terrorism more transparent, plus harder to find sanctuary, hide or get funding. [Canada has new legislation against financing terrorism.] Judith Miller“Some Charities Suspected of Terrorist Role”New York Times 19 Feb 00:-US officials claim have found a”common thread”between international terrorist attacks and“Islamic charities and relief organizations that they suspect are being used to move men, money and weapons across borders”. They believe Osama bin Laden relied on“at least nine such groups”in recent operations, while others have been linked to a multi-target plot in Jordan, the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, and terrorist attacks in Egypt. While 30+ are being examined,“[m]ost of the 6,000 Islamic groups operating worldwide are considered legitimate[,and] charities are often unaware that terrorists have used them”. Yet they provide excellent cover, as relief workers are welcomed almost everywhere and their shipments rarely checked. Hence US expert:“[t]hese charities and relief groups are a crucial part of terrorism’s infrastructure”. Mark Juergensmeyer, Terror in the Mind of God: The Global Rise of Religious Violence (Berkeley: Univ. of California Press, 2000):-study of religious terrorism today. Book is about”public acts of violence... for which religion has provided the motivation, the justification, the organization, and the world view. [Its] goal is to understand why these acts were often associated with religious causes and why they have occurred with such frequency at this juncture in history...[Also,] why bad things are done by people who otherwise appear to be good - in cases of religious terrorism, by pious people dedicated to a moral vision of the world. [It offers many case studies of religious violence] both within their own cultural contexts and within the framework of [current] global social and political changes”(7). Also probes whether/how religious terrorism differs from other kinds - including “transcendent moralism”to justify the acts and“religious images of struggle and transformation”, and the great importance of“religion...fused with violent expressions of social aspirations, personal pride, and movements for political change”(10). In addition to mindset of perpetrators, author examines essential groups/communities that supported them, and their world view/ideologies (e.g. violence is simply responsive to others’ violence against group or to perceived oppression. Concludes with recommendations. Chapter 4, Islam’s“Neglected Duty”(60-83) deals specifically with Islamic religious terrorism and thus frequently with Osama bin Laden and his organization(s). Pages 61-9 report information obtained from Mahmud Abouhalima and the 1993 World Trade Center bombing - now even more directly connected with bin Laden than at time of interview. Pages 178-82 describe a number of(bin Laden’s) reasons to identify”America As Enemy”.

(2)The following articles have not been included elsewhere in the bibliography. All were published in, and derived from, the New York Times unless otherwise indicated (i.e. The Economist). Unfortunately the material is too extensive to provide a summary of each article, but an explanatory phrase(s) is added if an article’s title is ambiguous/ incomplete about its main contents. In addition, if an important event/fact that has not been mentioned previously serves to generate an article(s), it is briefly described. Associated Press“Arab Fighters Said Sent to Chechnya”29 Aug 00:-not the first sent by Osama bin Laden to fight Russians; Taliban is unhappy. Reuters“Bin Laden Groomed Yemen Ties for Two Years - Expert”20 Oct 00:-follows terrorist attack on USS Cole in Aden harbor; bin Laden has tribal ties in Yemen and may move there. Miller/Neil MacFarquhar“U.S. Got Warning on Egypt Islamic Group”20 Oct:-Egyptian Islamic Jihad is one of most“vicious terrorist groups in the region”and virtually one with Al-Qaida; warnings were general anti-US threats. AP“Guilty Plea in Embassy Bomb Case”20 Oct:-NY trial of 17 indicted in 1998 bombing of US embassies in Nairobi/Dar es Salaam; witness admitted to conspiring with bin Laden. Benjamin Weiser “Bin Ladin Linked to Embassy Blast by an Ex-Soldier”21 Oct:-more detail than AP report; aim: to attack any Western target, to force all to pull out of Mideast. John F. Burns “Remote Yemen May Be Key to Terrorist’s Past and Future”05 Nov:-long article on clannishness, conservatism, strict Wahhabi Islam, deeply frugal lifestyle and “passion for secrecy and conspiracy”of Hadhramaut, Yemen, and its strong influence on bin Laden. Reuters“Bin Laden Denies Link to Cole Blast, Kuwait Plot”13 Nov:-Kuwait arrests 6 members Islamist group for plotting attacks on US/other targets in Gulf area; bin Laden denies he/followers planned or implicated in any such acts. Burns“2 Saudis, With Ties to bin Laden, Linked to Cole Attack”23 Nov:-Yemenis state Cole bombers were Saudis with Hadhramaut origin and Afghan war experience; conclude bin Laden at least indirectly involved($5m reward); Yemenis who assisted them, soon on trial; FBI wants wider powers/inquiry, including DNA tests of Cole bombers to check ties with other anti-US terrorism. AP“Proposed Taliban Sanctions Worry UN”13 Dec:-existing UN sanctions prevent Afghan airline flying abroad etc. since Taliban refuse to extradite bin Laden re US embassy bombings (nearly 300 killed)claiming US lacks proof; US/Russia proposing arms embargo etc.; UN fears backlash against aid workers and peace efforts. AP“U.S. Vows Campaign Against Taliban”13 Dec:-US State Dept declares Afghanistan “haven of lawlessness”, harboring/training/financing terrorists(bin Laden), accounting for 72% world’s illicit opium; hence need more sanctions. Economist 16 Dec“The Taliban Dilemma”(44-5):-warns new UN sanctions against Kabul might reduce badly-needed foreign assistance: aid workers already leaving in fear of reprisals; WFP claims level of food aid per person required is world’s highest; UN civil-war peace-broking attempt likely”an early casualty”; war/sharia/crop failure/dire poverty all eliminate state services and created overwhelming refugee crisis. Barbara Crossette“Tough Sanctions Imposed on Taliban Government Splits U.N.”20 Dec:-UNSC votes 13-0-2 for sanctions cutting all air links, and imposing arms/military training embargo on Taliban(alone). UN removes remaining relief workers, after warning 1m could starve. Bin Laden assets frozen globally. UNSG, his special(peace) envoy, UN and private relief personnel, HRW and other NGOs all clearly opposed. Burns“Yemen on Delicate Path in bin Laden Hunt”15 Dec:- long interview with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. He criticized bin Laden’s jihad, and said he would support US efforts to seize him if found to be behind Cole bombing. However, warned US not to repeat 1998 cruise missile attack on bin Laden camps but instead to chase him down internationally and then bring before a court. Bin Laden and his aim of driving US military out of Arabia has much support in Yemen and elsewhere. Burns“Where bin Laden Has Roots, His Mystique Grows”31 Dec:-description of Al-Ribat, Yemen, ultra-isolated and -conservative home village of bin Laden family; Osama has influence in, and is influenced by it. Stephen Engelberg“Holy Warriors: One Man and a Global Web of Violence”14 Jan 01:-substantial and possibly unique history of Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda derived from interviews with personally-knowledgeable sources. First in three-part series: others follow immediately. Recommended. Miller“Holy Warriors: Dissecting a Terror Plot From Boston to Amman”15 Jan:-describes at length a foiled plot”to carry out terrorist attacks against the Jews and American interests in Jordan”at exactly the dawn of the millennium, when Amman and Christian holy sites in Jordan would be full of tourists. Trained in Afghanistan by Al-Qaeda/Osama bin Laden in use of explosives, a spontaneous and multinational suicide group collected the equivalent of 16 tons of TNT - enough to”flatten not only the Radisson[Hotel]but entire neighbourhoods”. Jordanian police caught 16 militants just in time, and obtained full/credible confessions. “Jordanian and American officials say what nearly happened in Jordan is a case study of how Osama bin Laden and his deputies, isolated in Afghanistan, greatly extend their reach by aiding locally initiated terrorism”. Miller“Holy Warriors: Killing for the Glory of God, in a Land Far From Home”16 Jan:-the description of a focus for Islamic militants from all over the world. ”If... international terrorism...has a home, it is Afghanistan, the place that comes closest to the extremists’ ideal of a state ruled by the strict code of Islamic law. Afghanistan is an inspiration, an essential base of operations, a reservoir of potential suicide bombers and a battle front where crucial ties are formed. It is also...where Osama bin Laden is experimenting with chemical weapons”. CIA estimates 50-70,000 militants from 55 countries may have trained here; up to 5,000 went through bin Laden camps, which offer training in small arms plus“explosives and logistics for terrorist attacks”. Taliban and bin Laden are mutually reinforcing. AP“Taliban Seeks Unity Against U.N.”15 Jan:-Mohammed Omar, supreme Taliban leader, appeals to fellow Muslim countries to oppose new UN arms embargo. This applies to his regime(supported by Pakistan and controlling 95% of Afghanistan)but not to opposition in north(supported with arms/funds by Russia, Iran and secular Central Asian governments). ”These sanctions will be the shame of those implementing them”. Miller “Welcome to Taliban Camp. Please Don’t Come In”16 Jan:-describes journalist’s unsuccessful attempts to enter any training camps, despite personal invitation from Taliban FM. Latter claims:“Nothing is hidden in Afghanistan”and there are no“jihadi” training camps or terrorists, although some Arab and non-Afghan”volunteers” from the war against the Soviet Union could not return home. Even with official”guide”, guards refuse entry on orders of Defense Ministry. AP“Afghans Bewildered by U.N. Sanctions”19 Jan:-around Jalalabad(where several bin Laden camps exist)ordinary Afghans claim it is the poorest who are being hurt by new UN sanctions. After the worst drought in 30 years, sanctions were seen to be making already miserable conditions worse. Although people seem aware sanctions’ rationale was Taliban’s refusal to give up bin Laden, reasoning is that UN - not Taliban - over-reacted because of one man. Reuters“Afghan Taliban Says Won’t Surrender Bin Laden”06 Feb:-Taliban denies report that regime would give up bin Laden in return for its recognition as the government of Afghanistan. FM claims hostile states would simply find another reason not to recognize. Meanwhile trial of four alleged bin Laden associates begins in New York federal court. They are charged with the 1998 terrorist bombing of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania [about 225 killed]. Weiser“Ex-Aide to bin Laden Describes Terror Campaign Aimed at U.S.”07 Feb:-contains substantial evidence about Al Qaeda’s organization and activities 1990-96 given at NY trial by Jamal Ahmed Al-Fadl, a Sudanese who claimed to have worked closely with bin Laden in Afghanistan and Sudan, transferring funds and arms to terrorists in Africa, Mideast. Offered information on global group’s structure, training camps, salaries, aliases, banking network and business ventures, and its cooperation with Hezbollah, Chechen rebels, Sudanese government. Alan Feuer“Terror Exports Are the Business of Jihad Inc.”13 Feb:-offers further information from Al-Fadl, including its Shura Council or executive panel, committee structure, profitable or front companies, newspaper, and plentiful funds. Miller and Sarah Lyall“Hunting bin Laden’s Allies, U.S. Extends Net to Europe”21 Feb:-describes anti-terrorist crack-down by British and German police. US perceives ties between those arrested(ten in Britain, four in Germany)and bin Laden. Omar Mahmood Abu Omar(Abu Qatada)in particular is believed to be a key European agent. Also, Britain just invoked tougher anti-terrorist law, France is trying 24 terrorism suspects, and Yemen arrested two in connection with Cole incident. Reuters“UN: Sanctions Against Taliban Not Hurting Afghans”24 Mar:-UNSC sanctions on Taliban regime described(Nov 99: rulers’s foreign assets frozen and Afghan international flights banned; Dec 00: Taliban overseas offices closed and arms embargo imposed)and their effects assessed by UNSG. Annan claims flight ban endangered internal flights by limiting imports of spare parts etc. but concludes sanctions had little impact on already-critical problems of ordinary Afghans(suffering from warfare, drought, displacement, and”lack of a single effective national authority”). AP “Algerian Is Found Guilty of Terrorism”07 Apr:-relates to terrorist plot to bomb US landmarks during millennium celebrations. Ahmed Ressam, arrested at Canadian-US border with explosives etc., was convicted in Los Angeles of international terrorism and 8 other charges, and in absentia on same day in Paris(with 16 others)for membership in web of Islamic militants. Co-defendant Abdelmajid Dahoumane will be tried in Algeria, and Mokhtar Haouari, arrested in Canada, is awaiting trial in NY. Much evidence provided by Abdel Ghani Meskini, arrested and pleaded guilty in NY. All Algerians. US officials claim Ressam was trained in Afghan terrorist camps and is linked to Osama bin Laden. Weiser“Violence Against Innocents Violates Islamic Law, a Cleric Testifies”25 Apr:-one defendant in NY trial on bombing of US embassies in Africa, Mohammed Saddiq Odeh(Jordan), called Imam Siraj Wahhaj as expert witness on Islam. Imam stated”that Muslims are not obliged to blindly obey their leaders and are prohibited from committing violent acts against innocent people even if their leaders say such actions are justified”. This attempt to”establish ethical boundaries for a jihad fighter”- Odeh left Nairobi before the bombing - caused split with positions being used by lawyers for Mohamed Rashed Daoud al-’Owhali(Saudi Arabia); Khalfan Khamis Mohamed(Tanzania); Wadih El-Hage (US),which included necessity to follow(Islamic)orders. AP “Terrorist is Said to Be Helping U.S. Prosecutors”27 May:-reports that Ressam(who faces up to 140 years)has offered to testify in NY trial of alleged co-conspirator Haouari. AP“Four Convicted in Embassy Bombings”29 May:-all four defendants in NY trial on 1998 bombing of US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, were convicted of“conspiring to kill Americans”. In all, 224 people(12 US)were killed and thousands(sic)buried by the explosions. Six other defendants are already in custody, and 12 more, including Osama bin Laden,”are being sought”. Article outlines evidence at three-month trial. AP“Osama Bin Laden Still Hiding”30 May:-2-page summary of previously published material on bin Laden. Notes that he runs global terrorist network from mostly-Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, US accusation of involvement in 1998 embassy bombings and suspicion of involvement in 1999 bombing of USS Cole in Aden harbor(17 US sailors killed). Credits Pakistani government with trying to persuade Taliban to surrender bin Laden. Quotes from bin Laden speech urging Islamic youth to prepare for obligatory holy war. Ian Fisher/MacFarquhar“The Reaction: In Kenya, Compensation Is a Priority”31 May:- Four bin Laden men indicted New York for attack on US embassy Nairobi Aug 98. Taliban declares ruling unfair and will not extradite bin Laden:“He is a great holy warrior of Islam and a great benefactor of the Afghan people”. Kenya demands US fully compensates Nairobi victims. Weiser“Trial Poked Holes in Image of bin Laden’s Terrorist Group”31 May:-Long analysis of new views on Al Qaeda generated by NY trial: it produced growing optimism that organization’s inner workings becoming understood. Evidence proved it “was at times slipshod, torn by inner strife, betrayal, greed” and banality. Members share ideology but “a very limited direction”. New information also shows bin Laden seeking nuclear weapons, and had trained Somalis against US. In general: more proof of his guilt. Reuters“Afghan Taliban Warns UN Against Border Monitoring”7 Jun:-reports Taliban considering UN monitoring team on country’s border as hostile, “[UN]..have imposed unjust sanctions on us and also plan to impose some more.” UNSC imposes sanctions against Taliban in effort to force movement to hand over Bin Laden. Reuters“Indian Police Arrest Sudanese with Bin Laden Links”16 Jun:- Indian police capture Sudanese national with links to Bin Laden and planning to attack a US embassy. The arrested carrying high intensity explosives and had scouted possible attack on US embassy. AP“India Arrests 2 in Plot to Attack U.S. Embassy”17 Jun:-same report as above by different source. AP“Yemen Authorities Round Up Militants”19 Jun:-seven members of militant Muslim group believed to have fought with Bin Laden against Soviet forces Afghanistan, captured in Yemen. Found with hand grenades, small arms and map of US Embassy San`a. Believed planning suicide bombing of embassy. FBI/State Department officials link to bombing of USS Cole, “This increased threat in Yemen is, obviously, of concern to us in terms of our official personnel, but also in terms of travelling Americans and others”. Reuters“Paper Says Bin Laden Group Boasts of Cole Bombing” 19 Jun:-video tape shows Bin Laden boasting over bombing of Cole. In tape Bin Laden calls for new Holy War on US and Israel, claiming“The main(US)ministries are ruled by Jews”. Tape also contains footage of Muslim fighters in training camps. Emma Daly“Spain Arrests Terror Suspect Said to Be Linked to bin Laden”23 Jun:-Spanish police detain Muhammad Bensakhria, Algerian known to have close ties with Bin Laden. Spain’s interior minister states Bensakhria was “the Islamic Terrorist most wanted by the Western security services in the past few months”and added that detainee“was a leader of Al-Qaida”. Reuters“Afghan Taliban Dismiss Bin Laden Threat Reports”24 Jun:-Taliban dismiss reports bin Laden planning attacks against US and Israel. Spokesman states “All of Osama’s activities are under control in Afghanistan and he has no possibility to intensify his activities against any other country”. Correspondent in Turkey claims he has met Bin Laden and followers, who claim attack against US and Israel in next two weeks. AP“US Warns Taliban Over Bin Laden”29 Jun:-US ambassador William Milam issues warning Taliban would bear responsibility for any attack on US targets by Bin Laden. Taliban gives assurance Bin Laden will not plan attack against US or Israel while living in Afghanistan as guest. Laura Mansnerus/Miller“Terrorist Details His Training in Afghanistan”4 Jul:-Ahmed Ressam, Algerian convicted of attempting terrorist attack at Los Angeles airport testifies he had received money and training from camps in Afghanistan. Ressam describes training in light arms, explosives, assassinations and techniques for blowing up“infrastructure of a country”.He describes network of Afghan camps, filled with Algerians, Jordanians, Germans and others, who were trained for terrorist missions around world. Ressam points out Abu Zubaida, Palestinian known to report to Bin Laden, responsible for recruiting terrorist members. Barbara Crossette“Rights Group Says Taliban Aren’t Solely to Blame for the Afghan Disaster”13 Jul:-Human Rights Watch claims Taliban alone not responsible for Afghan economic/ social/political deterioration:“UN sanctions on arms and fuel to the Taliban are one-sided and strongly influenced by short-term Russian and US interests, not humanitarian goals”. Another source blames Pakistani government for arming/training Taliban fighters. Reuters“Bosnia Police Arrest Two Egyptian ‘Terrorists’”26 Jul:-claim both terrorists had ties with Bin Laden. Bosnian press states arrests conducted under pressure from US government and that one of arrested will be deported and handed over to CIA. One accused of killing of 58 tourists in Egypt 1997. Reuters“US Renews Bin Laden Surrender Demand to Taliban”02 Aug:-US renews demand for Bin Laden in Islamabad talks on UNSC Resolution on monitoring of UN sanctions against Taliban. US AS of State, Christina Rocca, said “monitoring mechanism and the sanctions themselves would not be necessary if the Taliban simply closed terrorist training camps and [by] sending Osama Bin Laden where he can be brought to justice”. Rocca also blames Taliban for obstructing delivery of aid to Afghans. Burns“F.B.I.’s Inquiry in Cole Attack Nearing a Halt”21 Aug:-Yemen denies FBI access to suspected Yemenis who collaborated in Cole attack and to find evidence linking attack with Bin Laden. Yemeni decision backed by FM Abu Bakr al-Qurbi who claims not allowing FBI investigation will protect country’s sovereignty, and that Cole attack also breached Yemeni security. Qurbi also argues that FBI refused to tell Yemen what it had learned about any connection between Cole attack and Bin Laden. AP“India Police Charge Osama Bin Laden”24 Aug:-Indian investigators capture four out of five terrorists planning to bomb US embassy New Delhi. Fifth man, Yemeni Abdul Rehman Al Safani, known to have been working for Bin Laden, has fled India. Group had intended to park car bomb in embassy visa section due to large number of people lining up to get US visas. AP“Islamists Vow to Block UN Monitors”26 Aug:-protest by several hundred Islamists will be held in Pakistan against UN monitors entering region. Monitors deployed to stop weapons shipments allegedly sent by Pakistan to Taliban. Meanwhile Pakistani government officials deny claim. Threat that revolt by many Muslims will take place if Pakistan allows entry of monitors: “We will sacrifice our lives to stop them”. AP“Algerian Indicted in Millennium Bomb Plot”28 Aug:-federal grand jury has indicted Haydar Abu Doha for attempting to use WMD to blow up Los Angeles airport. Doha is key figure in al-Qaeda network and met Bin Laden. Meeting mainly dealt with cooperation/coordination between group of Algerian terrorists and al-Qaeda, which Doha oversaw. AP“U.S. Agents Return to Yemen”03 Sept:-eight US investigators in Yemen to re-interview some of suspects Yemeni authorities have arrested known to be linked to Cole attack. Trial of suspected terrorists delayed due to FBI demand for more time to gather information on other suspects possibly involved in attack. Reuters“U.S. Issues Terrorist Warning for Americans in Japan”07 Sept:-Japanese officials receive unconfirmed information that terrorist actions may be taken against US military facilities, or establishments frequented by US military personnel. Similar warning also given to South Korea. Bin Laden reported behind many potential terrorist attacks against US and Israeli facilities in Asia where security relatively lax. Reuters “Pakistan Says Engage Afghan Taliban for Peace”07 Sept:-Pakistani FM Abdul Sattar argues his country does not have influence over Taliban since bilateral relations not good. Sattar also criticizes UN Afghan sanctions as”one-sided”since arms embargo does not apply to northern-based Opposition Alliance, and further claims UN sanctions prevent Pakistan following trade route to Central Asia. Reuters“Afghan Taliban Claim Gains in Fierce Fighting”08 Sept:-Taliban sources claim it has defeated Northern Alliance in key areas which Alliance controlled. Opposition responds that Taliban claim false, and regime has suffered many casualties. Burns“On Videotape, Bin Laden Charts a Violent Future”09 Sept:-description of Bin Laden videotape in which militant religious ideology is targeted against US and Israel. By boasting of Cole attack, Bin Laden has clearly taken responsibility for act. In videotape, Bin Laden threatens more attacks on US and Israel, promising intensified holy war by aiding Palestinians to fight against Israel. Using Muslim doctrine, Bin Laden assures followers Islamic faith will defeat US military might. Tape focuses on Israeli-Palestinian conflict, making it unclear if Bin Laden will target Israel or somewhere else. Reuters“U.S. Official Says Afghan Commander Masood Dead”10 Sept:-leader of Northern Opposition, Ahmed Shah Masood, reportedly died when a suicide bomber pretending to be a journalist, blew himself up in Masood’s office. No one has claimed responsibility for act, but Taliban denies any involvement. Masood’s followers give conflicting reports whether he survived attack. Barry Barak/James Risen“Reports Disagree on Fate of Anti-Taliban Rebel Chief” 11 Sept 01(sic):-conflicting reports on well-being of commander Masood after explosion in his quarters. According to his brother, leader is recuperating, while US intelligence strongly believes he is dead. Many in Opposition unclear if leader is dead or alive. Taliban denies any involvement in attack, but relieved their enemy has perished. Many speculate assassins were linked to Bin Laden, and that perhaps he is starting to take on bigger decision-making role. Reuters“Taliban Crank Up Offensive Masood Fate a Mystery”11 Sept 01(sic):-continued conflicting reports on Masood’s whereabouts after suicide bombing. No one has claimed responsibility for attack. Taliban denies any involvement in affair, while continuing combat with Northern Alliance. Opposition blames Taliban and Bin Laden for attack, partly due to their victorious offensive against Taliban which has lost dozen combatants and failed to defeat Alliance. Afghani currency has dropped further, showing impact of Masood’s death on economy. Reuters“Iran, West Urge Taliban to Restore Afghan Democracy”11 Sept 01 [obviously this article and two previous were written before authors learned of 9/11 tragedy!):-many UN diplomats including Germany, Iran and US condemned terrorist attack against commander Masood. UN diplomats perceive Afghan military action by Taliban/Northern Alliance unacceptable since military means do not bring solutions to war-torn country. Diplomats are urging both factions to negotiate and begin ceasefire so that dialogue among all parties can begin.

Columns by Thomas L.Friedman The following six columns by the highly-respected NYT commentator on Middle East affairs were all written prior to September 11, and selected and made available as a set by the editorial staff because of their relevance to international terrorism - and to the tragedy that had just taken place. The summaries are those provided by the paper itself, and possibly selected by Mr. Friedman personally.

“Digital Defense”27 Jul 01:-The more the Internet brings us together, the more vulnerable we are to a breakdown. The real threat to our country comes from cyberterrorists.

“A Memo From Osama”26 Jun 01:-Memo from: Osama bin Laden To: all field operatives

I love America. They think we rogues are going to attack them with and intercontinental ballistic missile with a return address on it. Are they kidding? We’ll use layers of local operatives, who can’t be traced to any country.

“Angry, Wired and Deadly”22 Aug 98:-President Clinton called Osama bin Laden’s terrorist group “a network not sponsored by any state, but as dangerous as any we face”. Nothing better summarizes the most immediate threat to America today. It is not from another superpower. It is from super-empowered angry men.

“Motives for the Bombing”08 Aug 98:-It is still unclear who is behind the evil bombing attacks against two U.S. embassies in Africa. Which countries or groups might have the capabilities and intentions to pull off such a twin attack?

“The Terrorist Question”04 Aug 97:-What do the suicide bombers in Jerusalem and New York City tell us? Something we already knew: There are Palestinian extremist groups that are nourished by terrorism against Jews--and it doesn’t matter who’s in power in Israel, how active the US is, or whether peace talks are moving or stalled.

“Beirut, Okla”23 Apr 95:-In Beirut, the car bomb was a symptom of a Lebanese way of life that had broken down. In Oklahoma City, the car bomb is an assault on an American way of life that is still thriving.

Bernard Lewis The Crisis of Islam: Holy War and Unholy Terror(New York: Modern Library 03):- Lewis "examines the historical roots of the resentments that dominate the Islamic world today and that are increasingly being expressed in acts of terrorism. [He] is internationally recognized as one of our era's greatest historians of the Middle East[, and] his books have been translated into more than 20 languages, including Arabic/Persian/Turkish/Indonesian"[from dustcover]. Chapters generally move from past to present - but can even be read individually: Introduction; I Defining Islam; II The House of War; III From Crusaders to Imperialists; IV Discovering America; V Satan and the Soviets; VI Double Standards; VII A Failure of Modernity; VIII The Marriage of Saudi Power and Wahhabi Teaching; IX The Rise of Terrorism. Final paragraphs include: "For Usama bin Laden, his declaration of war against US marks the resumption of the struggle for religious dominance of the world. For him and his followers, this is a moment of opportunity... But there are others for whom US offers a different kind of temptation - the promise of human rights, of free institutions, and of a responsible and representative government... It is difficult for us to help those people, but at least we should not hinder them... Meanwhile, there is a more urgent problem. If the leaders of Al-Qa'ida can persuade the world of Islam to accept their views and their leadership, then a long and bitter struggle lies ahead... If the fundamentalists are correct in their calculations and succeed in their war, then a dark future awaits the world"; Sam Harris The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason(New York: W.W.Norton 2004):-relevant topic of“global”debate, both in, and about, its brilliant and persuasive evidence. An overwhelming impact relates to“the dangers of religion breeding conflict in a nuclear world”.The progressive arguments are very(not totally)persuasive if readers are willing and able to hear them with an open mind. Author carefully quotes the theology of Judaism, Christianity and Islam as derived from or“literally“found in their“God-inspired”ancient text-books. He then argues not only that it is unsupported by modern science, but obviously full of inaccuracy, illogicality, and ideas that were only acceptable, useful, and inspiring in the factually-uninformed worlds of our ancestors. He then provides evidence that in all three religions the“execution”of non-believers at the hands of faithful is approved, and indeed encouraged, in the holy texts. His examples of mass slaughter are provable, but in the Islamic case clearly identified with multiple Muslim terrorists who can be suicidal since their theology offers instant heavenly pleasures.“The world is simply ablaze with bad ideas.[S]till places where people are put to death for imaginary crimes - like blasphemy - and where the totality of a child’s education consists of his learning to recite from an ancient book of religious fiction. There are countries where women are denied almost every human liberty, except the liberty to breed.[Y]et, these same societies are quickly acquiring terrifying arsenals of advanced weaponry. If we cannot inspire the developing world, the Muslim world in particular, to pursue ends that are compatible with a global civilization, then dark future awaits all of us.”(224). Book makes many Islam-related arguments about the terrorist/suicidal rationale of Osama bin Laden and his supporters. New 2004 information: "Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused, Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3) Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves - Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate. Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism. New 2005 Information: While the above summaries all relate to the information about Osama bin Laden publicly available in the West as of 11 Sep 2001, two extremely informative articles were published in the New York Times on the fourth anniversary, 11 Sep 2005. The first is by "Mark Dannar, a professor of journalism and politics at the University of California at Berkeley and Bard College and the author, most recently, of Torture and Truth: America, Abu Ghraib and the War on Terror". The special article's title is "Taking Stock of the Forever War". Its brilliant aim is to explain how and why a world threatened by terrorism was created by the bin Laden blow against the US on 11 Sep 01. Even though the air attacks on that day were not the first examples of bin Laden terrorist acts against the US, their huge and shocking impact created a new atmosphere that is by no means limited to the US and/or to those millions who support or fear ben Laden's aims and potential. It explains with some care bin Laden's motives - essentially concerned about political/religious conditions in the Arab world, and considerably less so about the US, which however generally supported the unwanted Arab regimes and so could effect their collapse. The Bush regime's "war against terrorism" in Afghanistan and Iraq is analysed carefully from ben Laden's point of view, and determined as contributing on balance to his success. More important, the virtually global development of Al Qaeda supporters involves those able and willing to carry out ben Laden-relevant terrorist acts without needing any funds, technical information/explosives or orders from him. The second article is by "Mary Anne Weaver, who has been a Guggenheim fellow and a Council on Foreign Relations fellow this year, is the author of Pakistan: In the Shadow of Jihad and Afghanistan". The article's title is "Lost at Tora Bora" and constitutes perhaps the best information now available on the whole life of Osama ben Laden. It focuses, however, on his December 2001 escape from the Afghan mountainous redoubt known as Tora Bora, partly built by the CIA during the Soviet occupation of the country. He is described as moving to large, virtually uncontrolled area in Pakistan. Another major source of information: James F.Hoge Jr. & Gideon Rose edit. Understanding the War on Terror: A Foreign Affairs Book(New York: Council on Foreign Relations 05):-very useful 450p collection of relevant US officials'/experts' views/policy/information on the subject. All items were published following the crisis of 11 Sep 01 and are dated from then up to Oct 04. Chapters of the 28 articles/reports are titled: I The Enemy; II The War; III The Home Front; IV Less or More; V The State of Play. Inter alia texts: President Bush's Address to Joint Session of Congress 20 Sep 01; 9/11 Commission Staff Statements(3 under chapter I; 1 under II); twelve articles were published in Foreign Affairs. Identified authors (grouped by chapter): I: Doran, Cullison, Zakaria, Boroumand/L. & R., Laqueur; II: O'Hanlon, Cohen, Gause, Gershman, Carothers, Dobriansky/Carothers; III: Flynn, Betts, Roth, Wedgwood/Roth; IV: Howard, Byford, Boot; V: Stern, Pillar, Gerecht, Fallows, Gellman/Linzer. Reza Aslan No god but God: The Origins, Evolution, and Future of Islam(New York: Random House 05):-The widely-read author defines his aim in the Prologue: "This book is not just critical reexamination of the origins and evolution of Islam, nor is it merely an account of the current struggle among Muslims to define the future of this magnificent yet misunderstood faith. This book is, above all else, an argument for reform"(xx). William Grimes, in his New York Times 04 May 05 review, quotes the book:"What is taking place now in the Muslim world is an internal conflict between Muslims, not an external battle between Islam and the West"(248). Grimes himself argues: "[Islam's] history, grippingly narrated and thoughtfully examined, takes up nearly all of 'No god but God'. Aslan... has written a literate, accessible introduction to Islam.,. carefully placing its message/rituals in historical context. Complete with glossary/annotated bibliography, it could easily serve as a college textbook". The 310-page book includes 21st century arguments: "[T]he attacks of 11 Sep 01 were not a defensive strike against a specific act of aggression against Islam. They were never sanctioned by a qualified mujtahid. They made no differentiation between combatant/noncombatant.,. indiscriminately killed women, children, and approximately 200 Muslims. In other words, they fell far short of the regulations imposed by Muhammad for a legitimate jihadi response, which is why, despite common perception in the West, they were so roundly condemned by the vast majority of the world's Muslims"(87). "Tragic events of 11 Sep... initiated a vibrant discourse among Muslims about meaning/message of Islam in 21st century... It may be too early to know who will write the next chapter of Islam's story, but it is not too early to recognize who will ultimately win the war between reform/counterreform... But the cleansing inevitable, and tide of reform cannot be stopped. Islamic Reformation is already here"(266). AP"Full Text of bin Laden Tape"NYT 19 Jan 2006:-"The following is the full text of a new audiotape from al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. Parts of the tape were aired on Al-Jazeera television, which published the entire version on its Web site. The text was translated from the Arabic by The Associated Press. Bin Laden appears to be addressing the American people:" [Text when printed runs about two single-spaced pages. Following is major summary of AP's analysis "Arab TV Airs Audiotape Said to Be From bin Laden"NYT 19 Jan 06:] "Al-Jazeera... says al-Qaida is making preparations for attacks in US but offering a truce 'with fair conditions'. CIA authenticated the voice on tape as Osama bin Laden... It was first purported tape from the al-Qaida leader in more than a year - longest period without a message since the 11 Sep 01 suicides hijackings in US. Al-Jazeera said tape was recorded in Dec. Speaker refers to an alleged comment by President Bush about bombing the Qatar HQ of Al-Jazeera, which was first reported in British press on 22 Nov. He also refers indirectly to 07 Jul bombings in London that killed 56 people and to poll numbers that showed a fall in Bush's popularity, on Nov 05. US counterterror officials said [19 Jan 06] they have seen no specific or credible intelligence to indicate an upcoming al-Qaida attack on the country. US will not let up in war on terror despite the threats on the tape, said White House... No recent increase in 'chatter' that can indicate that such an attack is imminent. Voice on the tape... said he was directing his message to US people after polls showed that 'an overwhelming majority of you want the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq but (Bush) opposed that desire'. He said insurgents were winning the conflict in Iraq and warned that security measures in the West and US could not prevent attacks there. 'The proof of that is the explosions you have seen in the capitals of European nations', he said. 'The delay in similar operations happening in US has not been because of failure to break through your security measures. Operations are under preparation and you will see them in your homes the minute they are through (with preparations), and with God's permission'. Speaker did not spell out conditions for a truce in the excerpts aired by Al-Jazeera. 'We do not mind offering you a long-term truce with fair conditions that we adhere to', he said. 'We are a nation that God has forbidden to lie and cheat. So both sides can enjoy security and stability under this truce so we can build Iraq and Afghanistan, which have been destroyed in this war'... In...entire tape - but not aired - bin Laden makes an oblique reference to how to prevent new attacks on US, but does not specify if these are conditions for a truce. 'If I were president, I would stop the attacks on US: First I would apologize to all widows/orphans and those tortured. Then I would announce US interference in nations of the world has ended', he said. Last tape... was broadcast in Dec 04 by Al-Jazeera. In that, he endorsed al-Zarqawi as his deputy in Iraq and called for boycott of Iraqi elections. He issued numerous tapes in 03 and 04, calling for Muslims to attack... Bin Laden appeared in video released Oct 04, just ahead of US presidential elections. Since Dec 04, Zawahri has issued number of video and audiotapes, including claiming... London attacks... Al-Jazeera's editor-in-chief would not comment on when or where latest tape received. Full tape 10 minutes... Jeremy Bennie, terrorist analyst for Jane's Defense Weekly, said bin Laden appeared 'playing the peacemaker, the most statesmanlike character' with his offer of a truce. 'They want to promote the image they can launch attacks if and when it suits them... Message of powerful organization... Want us to believe they are in control', he said. Mention of rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan may be recognition of divisions among ranks of Islamic militants over the insurgency in Iraq by Zarqawi, who has come under criticism for attacks on Iraqi civilians. 'If turns out to be him [bin Laden?] initial significance of this is that he's still alive' former White House antiterrorism chief Richard A.Clarke said. Beyond that, he told AP 'the only new element in his statement is that they are planning an attack soon on US... Of truce offer, which Clarke said bin Laden had made before, 'I think it's designed to make him look more reasonable in Arab/Muslim eyes. [H]e obviously knows he can't affect US thinking... Too reviled'. Intelligence authorities were examining why bin Laden... would be speaking out after more than a year of letting his al-Zawahri serve as al-Qaida's public face... One counterterror official... suggested it was an attempt to show 'al-Qaida rank-and-file and the public at large that ...he's still around'"; Parallel articles include: Hassan M.Fattah"Bin Laden Warns of More Attacks; Proposes Truce"NYT 19 Jan 06:-"Breaking more than a year's silence, Osama bin Ladin warned Americans in an audiotape released [19 Jan] that Al Qaeda was planning more attacks on US, but he offered a 'long truce' on undefined terms"; and Reuters"New Tape, Old Threats as Bin Laden Breaks Silence"NYT 19 Jan 06:-"Osama bin Laden's first public message for over a year is a bid to show he is still in command of al Qaeda, but it falls back on old threats and tactics and fails to dispel doubts about his health, security analysts said"; The Economist 19 Jan 06"Politics This Week: Osama bin Laden": allegedly warned of fresh terrorist attacks in US in an audiotape broadcast by al-Jazeera, and also announced a surprising truce in Iraq and Afghanistan to assist reconstruction efforts there. If genuine, the tape represented bin Laden's first such address for over a year, following a videotaped message broadcast by al-Jazeera shortly before US's 2004 presidential election. Validation of the tape would scotch popular speculation that the al-Qaeda leader is incapacitated or dead"; Hassan M.Fattah"Al Qaeda's No.2 Follows Bin Laden's Lead and Resurfaces"NYT 20 Jan 06:-"Just a day after Osama bin Laden resurfaced in lengthy audiotape, a new recording by his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, appeared today, praising 'martyr of holy war' in Afghanistan, the Palestinian territories and elsewhere"; AP"Analysts Pore Over Bin Laden Tape Clues"NYT 20 Jan 06:-"[US] government sought [20 Jan] to pinpoint when Osama bin Laden recorded his most recent warning about planned attacks on US - a key fact that could help determine the risk that terrorists will carry out the threat"; Economist 20 Jan 06"Global Agenda: He's Back":"A new and bizarre audiotape believed to be recorded by Osama bin Laden has surfaced. In it, he both threatens US and offers a conditional truce. Its release follows a US attempt to kill Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's deputy, with a missile attack in Pakistan. The tape serves as a reminder that al-Qaeda, and probably its leader, remain at large and eager to do more harm... Al-Jazeera is convinced that the tape is genuine, and so is the CIA. [A]s al-Jazeera stressed, bin Laden combined his threats with an offer to US of a 'long-term truce... based on mutual respect'... This not his first truce offer... But no one will be deluded into thinking bin Laden is offereng peace... Bin Laden seems to be trying, if crudely, to influence western politics with his truce offer... Reaction from Washington... was swift and predictable. 'We do not negotiate with terrorists. We put them out of business... at a time and place of our choosing'"; Hassan M.Fattah"Zawahiri Releases Audiotape"NYT 21 Jan 06:-"It was not immediately clear when the recording was made, or whether it had any connection to the release of bin Laden's recording"; Carlotta Gall & Mohammad Khan"Pakistan's Push in Border Areas Is Said to Falter"NYT 22 Jan 06:-"Two years after Pakistani Army began operations in border tribal areas to root out members of Al Qaeda and other foreign militants, Pakistani officials who know the area say the military campaign is bogged down, the local political administration is powerless and the militants are stronger than ever. Both Osama bin Laden, who released a new audiotape of threats against US this week, and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, are believed to be living somewhere in the seven districts that make up these tribal areas, which run for more than 500 miles along the rugged Afghan border"; Kareem Fahim"He's Got One Word for You: Hudna"NYT 22 Jan 06:-"In audiotape by Osama bin Laden... one word had seemingly far-reaching implications. Bin Laden, apparently addressing US people, offered a 'truce' - hudna, in Arabic - saying it could be 'long-term' and would provide an opportunity to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush administration quickly dismissed the offer... In reality, its definition is simple. Hudna in different variations can mean calm, tranquillity or an intermission. In language of politics, 'it means the cessation of hostilities, which does not necessarily imply the end of the conflict', said Rashid Khalidi, director of Columbia University's Middle East Institute. 'It's the standard term for an armistice'... Bin Laden's offer needs to be seen in the context of his three audiences, said Bernard Haykel, a professor of Islamic studies at NY University. For the first two, US and most of the Muslim world, the offer is simply of a truce. But for a third, much smaller audience of Muslims - Salafis, or scriptural literalists - bin Laden may be offering a hudna in part to boost his legitimacy as their leader, Professor Haykel said. In Islamic jurisprudence, offering a hudna is one of the prerogatives of a ruler... Part posture and partly sincere, bin Laden's offer of a hudna reinforces a theme repeated time and again in his speeches, Professor Haykel said: as the defender of Islam, he can reciprocate in offering violence or peace"; AP "Report: Israel Tried to Kill Bin Laden"NYT 26 Jan 06:-"Israeli intelligence was close to assassinating Osama bin Laden in 1996 with help of one of his confidantes, but the attack was derailed by a crisis with the Palestinians, a newspaper [Yediot Ahronot 26 Jan] reported"; Paul William Roberts"A Profile of the Prophet"Globe & Mail 11 Feb 06:-Focus: "The outrage sparked by the controversial cartoons published in Denmark has led many around the world to realize just how tenuous their grasp of Islam really is. To help fill the gap, Middle East specialist PAUL WILLIAM ROBERTS tells: the story of Mohammed and why it means so much to the Muslim faithful." [An excellent and sympathetic description of the origin and basic beliefs of the Islamic religion, written for Christian, Jewish, atheist, etc. readers, not to gain converts but to offer those with other philosophies and/or religious views an objective account that avoids assigning historical perfection. Viewed fair by my Islamic friends]. Noah Feldman"Becoming bin Laden: Review of 'Messages to the World: The Statements of Osama bin Laden'"New York Times 12 Feb 06:-published in Nov 05 by Verso, "James Howarth's English translation is ideomatic and creditable. Bruce Lawrence's notes are occasionally idiosyncratic... For most part, though, contextual explanations in volume will be helpful to those uninitiated in the discourses of contemporary Islamic radicalism". Comments on actual contents:"What makes collected speeches, interviews, Web postings and other public statements of Osama bin Laden different... is that... he gives reasons for his actions that, while morally outrageous and religiously irresponsible, could be accepted by otherwise logical people who shared his premises. Makes him more, not less, dangerous... Without words, in fact, bin Laden's violence could not achieve its stated goals... He does not claim to embrace violence for its own sake or in hope of hastening apocalypse. Rather, he purports to fulfill the twin duties of calling nonbelievers to Islam and defending Muslim community from attack. Goal of jihad ... needs words because bin Laden has no sizable army... Unable to subjugate West, bin Laden thinks his best bet is to inflict harm... and then blackmail his target... Real contribution of book is what it tells us about bin Laden's own development... This 'progress' tells us something potentially useful about path of radical Islamic ideology in recent years... It was a short step [for bin Laden] to try to replace scholars, offering his own interpretations of Islamic texts/traditions and presenting them as binding on believers. [His] 'legal' innovations are not minor...Over time, [he] has come to endorse the targeting of civilians. [C]lassical position was originally intended as legal justification for accidental killing of civilians under very limited circumstances... Bin Laden appears to have abandoned this... in favor of perverse claim that since US is democracy, all citizens bear responsibility for its government's actions, and civilians are therefore fair targets... Individual duty of jihad and targeting of innocents are the two indispensable pillars of jihadi movement as it exists today. Bin Laden's move to supplant scholarly tradition, arrogate authority to himself and embrace violence on grand scale represents power grab of historic significance... Trying to make himself legitimate decision maker, and thus leader. [His] innovations matter because they point way to defeating his arguments...In long run, only way to cut off international jihadi movement at root is for Muslims to conclude that own religious tradition does not countenance deviations of recent years". Many references to bin Laden in: Graham AllisonNuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe(New York: Owl Books/Henry Holk & Co 05):-extremely expert/influential report argues in INTRODUCTION that:"Given the number of actors with serious intent, the accessibility of weapons or nuclear materials from which elementary weapons could be constructed, and the almost limitless ways in which terrorists could smuggle a weapon through US borders, [i]n my own considered judgment, on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on US in the decade ahead is more likely than not"(15). First chapter concludes:"What all [major terrorist] groups have in common is a hatred of the US or the West, along with sophisticated organizational structures and access to technical know-how. [U]ncomfortable fact is that being the world's only superpower is inevitably going to breed resentment of one form or another - and it is impossible to mollify every single group. Challenge to US is to prevent these organizations from acquiring the means to threaten us with nuclear attack"(42).Then describes"unique destructive power of these terrible weapons", how/where they could be obtained, and where/when/how attacks might take place(43-120). Then describes policy changes to reduce chance of attack. List: priority to issue; standard for secure nuclear weapons/material; global alliance against nuclear terrorism; global clean-out of all dangerous fissile material; stop new national production of fissile material; shut down of nuclear black markets; block emergence of nuclear weapons states; full review of global nonproliferation regime; revise nuclear weapons' postures/pronouncements; global prosecuting war on terrorism(205). Emphasis is on US but essential involvement must be global. The Economist 04 Mar 06"Special Report: Sunnis and Shias: Does It Have To Be War?"(20-3):-"Iraq is obvious example, but not the only one, of new and alarming hostility between two faiths". Highlights: "Violent change... now looming most alarmingly... Bombs [against holy Shia tomb] ignited... sectarian bloodletting... for no reason [except]different sect ... Iraq's experience may be unique, yet far from being only example of tension between Sunnis, who make up 85% of world's 1.5billion Muslims, and multiple sects of Shia minority. Far apart as Pakistan/Lebanon, centrifugal momentum appears exacerbating sectarian feelings... Iran as ambitious Shia regional power ...combined with coming to power of Shias in Iraq, encourage greater assertiveness by Shias in the many countries where... historically disenfranchised. This, in turn, has aroused awareness of Sunnis to what many see as strangers in midst. Shia empowerment...matched by evolution of radical Sunni chauvinism ... In fact, throughout most of Islam's 14 centuries, Shia-Sunni divide...peaceful. Geography...largely separates sects... Shias tended to cluster in small, often isolated communities in centre of Muslim world - Levant, Indian subcontinent, Gulf - and on Arabic-, Turkish-, and Urdu-speaking fringes of Persia [now Iran]. In terms of... prayer/fasting, two not radically different... In mixed cities.,.sects often intermarried. [R]ecently, concerned Muslims made sincere attempts to reconcile branches...Shia scholar...declares the two branches share 97% of beliefs... Yet danger of conflict has always existed, ever since murder, 29 years after Muhammad's death 632AD, of Caliph Ali, Prophet's son-in-law... Shia derives from Arabic shi'at Ali/partisans of Ali; referred at first to political faction that believed leadership of Muslimcommunity should remain in hands of Prophet's family. [C]aliphate instead to rival branch of Muhammed's tribe... Over time, political division... into doctrinal splits, each branch elaborating own interpretations of sharia, or religious law. Sunni Muslims preserved unity by accept[ing] four rival, but equally valid legal schools of varying rigour. Shia Islam... into subsects over questions of whom to recognize as imam... While often remote from each other in beliefs, all...Shia sects retain relatively defined clerical hierarchies... Among growing... extremist Sunnis, fear Shias are...fifth column, whose mission to undermine faith... Belief has prompted discrimination against Shia communities... Recent sectarian hostility proliferate[s]... Yet taken together, what all...really show is that essential splits between Sunnis-Shias,..far more to do with politics than doctrine... Likelihood grand Shia alliance is slim. Since Sunni-Shia differences largely political, surely possible to resolve. Yet rising sense in both communities, not only in Iraq, of some kind of impending historical showdown. [G]lobal campaign against Islamist terrorism largely provoked by... radicalisation of numbers of Sunni Muslims, fired by ideas of return to 'pure' Islam/uniting Muslims into single nation...Most famous proponent, Osama bin Laden, always carefully refrained from reference to Shias... Yet he/many fellow-travellers [hold Shia] sect [as] elemental threat to Islam as whole... [Yet now] many Sunni leaders recognize... it is bad idea, especially in... diverse society, to bring religion-state too close together.[A]lternative possibilities of political alliance lost credibility.[But] temporary phenomenom -result of failure of secular parties/leaders[Hussein]. In time, both sects, now clinging political manifestation of Islam, may find common ground of secular politics is better place to contest rights"; The Economist 18 Mar 06"Pakistan: The Other Taliban"(41-2):-official summary: "The government fights to tame Islamist militants in northern Pakistan". Highlights relating to suspicion that Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, along the wild border with Afghanistan's most unstable south-west, may be hiding Osama bin Laden and/or his deputy Alman al-Zawahri: "No one knows how many people have been killed. [Pakistan's] army says 200, mostly 'militants'. The fugitives say many civilians were among them... For first half-century of the country's existence, Pakistan's government paid little attention to the tribal areas... That changed when US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, and thousands of al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters, Pakistanis/Afghans, fled to tribal areas. Then Pakistan sent its army in. Policed by 80,000 soldiers and paramilitaries, most of the tribal areas are now under unprecedented central control... In North and South Waziristan, army has encountered fierce resistance from local tribesmen, assisted perhaps by surviving handful of foreign jihadists... In early 2004, fighting in South Waziristan caused several hundred deaths on both sides - and failed to deliver the 'high-value' al-Qaeda target that Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president, had promised... Many in Pakistan now wonder whether the government's military campaign is making the tribal areas more radical, not less... Area is seeing a face-off between the army and the clerics. With insurgent violence worsening on both sides of border, the consequences could be grim; Reuters "Leave Pakistan or Die, Musharraf Warns Militants"NYT 23 Mar 06:-"Foreign militants hiding in Pakistan should either leave or face annihilation, President Pervez Musharraf said in strongly worded speech... Pakistan has captured or killed hundreds of al-Qaeda members since Musharraf joined US-led war on terrorism after 11 Sep 01 attacks on US. But security forces are still battling remnants of al Qaeda and their sympathizers among tribes on border with Afghanistan, and Osama bin Laden is widely believed to be hiding somewhere in Pakistan along with his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri. 'These foreign terrorists are not only spreading terrorism in Pakistan, but in the rest of the world', Musharraf told a rally... 'I want to warn them that they should leave Pakistan. Go away or we will finish them off', Musharraf said... Nevertheless, Pakistan's commitment... often comes under critical scrutiny from neighbours and Western governments alike... Over the years, Pakistan became a refuge for Islamist militants not only belonging to al Qaeda and remnants of Taliban militia ousted from Afghanistan, but also from Chechnya and Central Asia. Many settled in the semi-autonomous Pashtun tribal lands straddling the border with Afghanistan. Pakistan army has deployed up to 80,000 troops in the tribal lands but is still struggling to root out militants"; AP"Pakistani Forces Clash With Militants"NYT 24 Mar 06:-"Fighting in North Waziristan came day after President Musharraf ordered foreign militants to leave Pakistan or be 'crushed'. Clashes that reportedly killed scores of pro-Taliban tribesmen earlier [in Mar] heightened concerns that Pakistan was losing its grip on lawless region, possible hiding place for Osama bin Laden... Pakistan... has deployed thousands of troops in its tribal regions near Afghan border in an effort to flush out foreign militants/local supporters. Although tribal elders have claimed no foreigners in their areas, security officials say hundreds, including Arabs/Uzbeks/Chechens/Afghans are hiding in North and South Waziristan"; Faisal Devji Landscapes of the Jihad: Militancy . Morality . Modernity (Ithaca: Cornell Univ.Press 05):-very thoughtful analysis of Al-Qaeda's jihad motives behind the 11 Sep 01 attack against USA. To determine and describe this, the less-than-200-page book draws often on written/spoken rationales by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in particular. Following is derived from its own summary: "Devji focuses on the ethical content of [the Al-Qaeda's] jihad, as opposed to its purported political intent. Al-Qaeda differs radically from such groups as... Muslim Brotherhood and Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiyah, which aim to establish fundamentalist Islamist states. In fact,.. Al-Qaeda [has] a decentralized structure, and emphasis on moral rather than political action... Bin Laden and his lieutenants view their cause as a response to oppressive conditions faced by Muslim world[; not] an Islamic attempt to build states. Al-Qaeda culls diverse symbols/fragments from Islam's past in order to legitimize its global war against the 'metaphysical evil' emanating from the West. Most salient example of this assemblage... is concept of jihad itself, which Al-Qaeda defines as 'individual duty' incumbent on all Muslims, [and] weapon of spiritual conflict. Al Qaeda and its jihad, Devji suggests, are only the most visible manifestations of wider changes in the Muslim world. Such changes include fragmentation of traditional/fundamentalist forms of authority. [Hence] Al-Qaeda represents a dangerous new way of organizing Muslim belief/practice within a global landscape and does not require ideological/institutional unity. [Book] is at once a sophisticated work of historical/cultural analysis, and an invaluable guide to the world's most prominent terrorist movement". Edward Wong"Al Qaeda's Man in Iraq Gets Encouragement From His HQ"NYT 14 Apr 06:-"Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant has released an Internet video calling on Iraqi insurgents to remain strong in the fight against US and praising the leadership of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian militant who directs Al Qaeda's operations in Iraq. An introductory title on video indicates that lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, recorded message last Nov, months after he is believed to have written a 6,000-word letter asking Zarqawi to refrain from slaughtering Shiites. In recent months, perhaps in response to letter, Zarqawi has not personally taken responsibility for any major attacks in Iraq. 'The Nation of Islam, I ask you to support your brothers, the mujahedeen in Iraq, and our brother, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, about whom I didn't see anything but good things the whole period I knew him', Zawahiri said in video, as translated by the SITE Institute, an organization that tracks terrorists' messages. 'I know him to be true, and how he is defending Islam with all his powers". In the video, Zawahiri wears a white turban and gray robes and has a thick beard, while an automatic rifle leans against a brown backdrop. A former physician from Egypt, he is believed to be hiding in the mountainous area that straddles Afghanistan and Pakistan"; AP"In Tape, Bin Laden Urges Fighters to Sudan"NYT 23 Apr 06:-"Osama bin Laden issued ominous new threats in an audiotape broadcast [23 Apr], saying the West was at war with Islam, and calling on his followers to go to Sudan to fight a proposed UN force. In his first new message in three months, bin Laden said the West's decision to cut off funds to the Palestinians because their Hamas leaders refuse to recognize Israel proved that the US and Europe were conducting 'a Zionist crusader war on Islam'. 'The blockade which the West is imposing on the government of Hamas proves that there is a Zionist crusader war on Islam', said the speaker on the tape broadcast by Al-Jazeera network. 'I say that this war is the joint responsibility of the people and governments. While the war continues, the people renew their allegiance to their rulers and politicians, and continue to send their sons to our countries to fight us'. The voice on the tape sounded strong and resembled that on previous recordings attributed to bin Laden. There was no way to independently verify the authenticity of the tape... Israeli government spokesman... said bin Laden had decided to attack Israel to deflect growing Arab animosity toward al-Qaida... Al-Qaida is believed to have no direct links to Hamas, which is an outgrowth of the Muslim Brotherhood, but they share an anti-Israel ideology that calls for the destruction of the Jewish state. Recent media reports in Mideast have said al-Qaida is building cells in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Sudan... Bin Laden also addressed the conflict in Sudan, where he was based before being expelled under threats from US. He then moved to Afghanistan and is believed to be hiding out in the rugged mountains on the Pakistani side of their common border. In Washington, US intelligence officials said bin Laden is separated from his top deputy and, in a sign he has to be careful about whom he trusts, surrounded by fellow Arabs. His No.2, Ayman al-Zawahri, is hiding in a more settled area along the border, also surrounded by al-Qaida operatives from Egypt... A three-year conflict between Darfur's rebels and the Arab-dominated central government has caused about 180,000 deaths - most from disease and hunger - and displaced 2m people. UN has described the conflict as the world's gravest humanitarian crisis. US has described it as genocide... 'I call on mujahedeen and their supporters, especially in Sudan and the Arab peninsula, to prepare for long war again[st] the crusader plunderers in Western Sudan. Our goal is not defending the Khartoum government but to defend Islam, its land and its people', bin Laden purportedly said. 'I urge holy warriors to be acquainted with the land and the tribes in Darfur'... It was the first purported new message from bin Laden since 19 Jan 06(op.cit.)... In the message broadcast [23 Apr], bin Laden also called for a global Muslim boycott of US goods similar to the recent boycott of Danish products after the publication there of caricatures of the Muslim Prophet Muhammad(op.cit.)... Al-Jazeera news reader said bin Laden, in a portion of the tape not aired by the Qatar-based broadcaster, scoffed at Saudi King Abdullah(op.cit.) for his calls for a 'dialogue among civilizations' and blasted liberal-mined Arab writers for taking part in the Western cultural invasion of Muslim lands"; Jason Burke"Al-Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror"(New York: I.B.Tauris & Co 03):-while I read this book long after summarizing Burke‛s valuable article in 04 Foreign Policy(op cit), many of author‛s FP views also stated/implied in book, so aren‛t repeated. Book, however, is a valuable - and concentrated(300 pp) - report on the origins/members/relationships/aims of "al-Qaeda" in global terms, plus involvement of bin Laden to events of 11 Sep 01. Material is derived from both author‛s extraordinary interviews/experience and information from many other personal sources. Advice in book‛s conclusion is of special importance - and has much in common with "Christopher Spencer" item: "We [West] need to counter the twisted vision of world that is becoming so prevalent. Every time force is used it reinforces that vision by providing more evidence of a ‛clash of civilisations‛ and a ‛cosmic struggle‛... ‛War on terror‛ should have a military component [:] hardened militants cannot be rehabilitated[; b]ut if we are to win battle against terrorism, our strategies must be made broader and more sophisticated. [G]reatest weapon available in war on terrorism is the courage, decency, humour and integrity of the vast proportion of the world‛s Muslims [-] restricting the spread of ‛al-Qaeda‛ and its warped worldview. [B]attle between West and men like bin Laden...is not a battle for global supremacy. It is a battle for hearts and minds [-] battle we, and our allies in the Muslim world, losing. [Yet all] modern Islamic terrorism... can be acted on by well-judged, properly executed policies. Causes of terrorism must be addressed, careful analysis of...threat...undertaken, moderate Muslim leaders engaged, spread of hardline strands of Islam rolled back, and enormous effort to counter growing sympathy for ‛al-Qaeda‛ worldview must be made... All terrorist violence, ‛Islamic‛ or otherwise, is unjustifiable/ unforgivable/cowardly/contemptible. But just because we condemn does not mean we should not strive to comprehend. We need to keep asking why"(249-50). Jason Burke"THINK AGAIN: Al Qaeda"Foreign Policy No.142(May/Jun 04):-summarizing (global) public (mis)concepts about current capacities and aims of al Qaeda forces and ideas, and its future strength, Burke, chief reporter of Britain's Observer and author of Al Qaeda: Casting a Shadow of Terror(New York: I.B.Tauris 03)(op cit),offers nine widely believed views about issues, and then denies accuracy of each. "Al Qaeda Is a Global Terrorist Organization" -NO. "It is less an organization than an ideology...Today, structure that was built in Afghanistan has been destroyed... There is no longer a central hub for Islamic militancy. But al Qaeda workview... is growing stronger every day." "Capturing or Killing Bin Laden Will Deal a Severe Blow to Al Qaeda" -WRONG "If...he surrenders without a fight, which is very unlikely, many followers will be deeply disillusioned. If he achieves martyrdom in way that his cohorts can spin as heroic, he will beinspiration for generations to come. Either way, bin Laden's removal from scene will not stop Islamic militancy. "The Militants Seek to Destroy the West So They Can Impose a Global Islamic State" -FALSE "Islamic militants' main objective is not conquest, but to beat back what they perceive as an aggressive West. [S]econdary goal is establishment of...single Islamic state, in lands roughly corresponding to furthest extent of Islamic empire." "The Militants Reject Modern Ideas in Favor of Traditional Muslim Theology" -NO "Islamic hard-liners...have little compunction about embracing tools that modernity provides... [M]ilitants are framing modern political concerns ...within mythic and religious narrative. They do not reject modernization per se, but...resent their failure to benefit from that modernization." "Since the Rise of Al Qaeda, Islamic Moderates Have Been Marginalized" -INCORRECT "Al Qaeda represents lunatic fringe of political thought in Islamic world. While al Qaeda has made significant inroads in recent years, only tiny minority of world's 1.3b Muslims adhere to its doctrine." "The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Is Central to the Militants' Cause" -WRONG "Televised images... reinforce militants' key message that lands of Islam under attack, and that all Muslims must rise up and fight. However,...resolution...would not end threat of militant Islam...Two-state solution...would still leave 'Zionist entity' intact." "Sort Out Saudi Arabia and the Whole Problem Will Disappear" -NO "Inequities of Saudi system... continues to create sense of disenfranchisement that allows extremism to flourish...Saudi Arabia is one of many causes of modern Islamicmilitancy, but it has no monopoly on blame." "It Is Only a Matter of Time Before Islamic Militants Use Weapons of Mass Destruction" -CALM DOWN "Although Islamic militants...have attempted to develop basic chemical or biological arsenal, efforts have been largely unsuccessful due to technical difficulty...Islamic militants far more likely to use conventional bombs or employ conventional devices in imaginative ways." "The West Is Winning the War on Terror" -UNFORTUNATELY, NO "If countries to win war on terror, must eradicate enemies without creating new ones...Invasion of Iraq...has made task more pressing... Ben Laden's aim to radicalize/mobilize. He is closer to achieving goals than West is to deterring him". Jason Burke"It May Well Take 20 Years. But al-Qaeda‛s Days Are Numbered"Guardian 10 Sep 06:-Special Report by expert/famous journalist, published five years after "9/11", claims: "Osama bin Laden waits in vain for a Muslim ‛awakening‛. Lure of West is just too powerful a force". Full Burke text (plus 70pp of item‛s wide Email reactions) is available: http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,,1869182,00.html. Highlights: "There is a sense that history, far from ending, is accelerating. That the centre cannot hold. That the individual counts for nothing. [Burke‛s reactions to some of bin Laden‛s 01 claims: H]e was wrong. Yes, there is increasing radicalisation. Yes, a new and powerfully globalised ‛Muslim‛ identity is spreading, aided by communications technology that renders national frontiers obsolete. Yes, there is a small, if growing, number of Muslims who are attracted to ‛al-Qaedism‛ in its largest sense. But truth is that out of a total of 1.6b Muslims, very few have joined terrorist organisations. In [some Muslim] countries... there has been strong counter-reaction to the atrocities... World‛s Muslims are not behaving as bin Laden wants them to... The [London] bombs were a strike against a continuing and largely successful process of integration on a national scale. The attacks across the world in the past five years are strikes against a similar process of integration on an international scale. This process is largely driven by the continuing popularity and attraction of the Western model of secular liberal democracy, Enlightment values, and capitalist economics. It is the success of this model that has provoked the violence against it, not its failure. [N]eed to ask why so many people... recently came to view the apparently ineluctable process of Westernisation. [T]he arithmetic of terrorism means that you only need a small shift in public opinion to create enough angry individuals to cause a major problem... The appeal of the West is founded not just on a dream of a high level of material comfort but also on the satisfaction of basic and universal human values such as dignity, protection of life and justice. This gives West considerable moral capital,.. a fragile commodity... profligately spent in recent years... But for all the clumsiness with which the misconceived ‛war on terror‛ has been handled, the attraction, however conflicted, of ‛the West‛ for billions of people remains our greatest strength. Remember that and, over 10 or 20 years, it will become clear bin Laden‛s life or death will indeed have no significance. He and his kind will have been consigned to the history books". Related Burke volume is:On the Road to Kandahar(Bond Street Books 06 or St. Martin‛s Press 07)"From one of world‛s leading experts..how we are to get to grips with radical Islam/what it really means".

[Since this report is so complete, other reports related in some way to the Osama bin Laden audiotape are included only by source/title.] Reuters"Bin Laden Calls for Jihad in Darfur"NYT 23 Apr 06; AP"Tapes Attributed to Osama bin Laden"NYT 23 Apr 06:-14 reported, going back to Dec 01; AP"Hamas Distances Itself From Bin Laden"NYT 23 Apr 06; Michael Slackman"Bin Laden Says West Is Waging War Against Islam"NYT 23 Apr 06; Brian Knowlton of International Herald Tribune"Tape Says Bin Laden Wants Militants to Go to Sudan"NYT 23/24 Apr 06; AP"Bin Laden Says U.S. Waging War on Islam" NYT 24 Apr 06; AP"Pakistan Won't Speculate on Bin Laden"NYT 24 Apr 06; [These immediately-following reports are at least related to the preceding, and most mention Osama bin Laden in some form.] Christine Hauser"Video Appears to Show Zarqawi"NYT 25 Apr 06; AP"Al - Qaida Leader Mocks U.S. Forces in Video"NYT 25 Apr 06; Reuters"Zarqawi Warns Fight to Go On"NYT 25 Apr 06; Dexter Filkins"Qaeda Video Vows Iraq Defeat for 'Crusader' U.S."NYT 26 Apr 06; AP"Video Shows Another Side of Al - Zarqawi"NYT 26 Apr 06; AP"al - Qaida Leaders Losing Control, U.S. Says"NYT 28 Apr 06; AP"U.S.: Jihadists Working to Spread Agenda"NYT 28 Apr 06; Reuters"Al Qaeda Leader: US Hit Hard in Iraq"NYT 28 Apr 06; AP"al - Qaida Leaders Losing Control, U.S. Says"NYT 28 Apr 06; Reuters"Al Qaeda Leader Says US Hit Hard in Iraq"NYT 29 Apr 06; AP"Al - Qaida Leader Says U.S. 'Broken' in Iraq"NYT 29 Apr 06; AP"U.S. Deems al - Qaida Video Propaganda"NYT 29 Apr 06; AP"Rift Grows Between al - Qaida, Muslim Groups"NYT 29 Apr 06; David Johnston & Mark Mazzetti"Messages: Some See Hints of Disharmony in Qaeda Tapes"NYT 30 Apr 06; AP"Pakistan Detains al - Qaida Fugitive Nasar"and with same text:"Top al - Qaida Leader Captured in Pakistan"NYT 02 May 06; AP"Afghan Militant Wants to Join Bin Laden"NYT 04 May 06; AP"Afghan General Says al - Qaida Still Active"NYT 04 May 06; AP"Afghan Warlord Supports Bin Laden on Tape" NYT 04 May 06; AP"Afghan Warlord Pledges to Back Bin Laden"NYT 05 May 06; Reuters"'Osama' Leaflets Circulate in Pakistani Tribal Area"NYT 06 May 06; AP"U.S. Envoy: Bin Laden Likely in Pakistan"NYT 06 May 06; AP"Flier Circulates Seeking Musharraf's Death"NYT 07 May 06; Carlotta Gall”Remote Pakistan Town Believes Rumors of bin Laden’s Arrival Are Greatly Exaggerated” NYT 16 May 06:-Article begins: “CHITRAL, Pakistan, May 14 -- This quiet resort, better known for its polo games and mountain treks, has become the latest site of interest in the hunt for Osama bin Laden, much to the outrage and bemusement of its inhabitants”. It reports on US [embassy?] staff plans to live in this remote town in the North-West Frontier Province, but does not report on their success or failure, let alone any combat; AP“Pakistan Dismisses bin Laden Speculation” NYT 16 May 06:-essentially seeks Pakistani comments on the preceding article by Gall: Authorities on [16 May] dismissed speculation that Osama bin Laden might be hiding in Pakistan’s mountainous north - a region more known for its spectacular scenery than Islamic militancy. A recent visit to the resort town of Chitral by at least one American prompted allegations from a local lawmaker from a hard-line Islamic party that the FBI or CIA had set up an office there to hunt for the al-Qaida chief. [Pakistani] Interior Minister... told a news conference in the capital, Islamabad, [that he] denied US agents were based in Chitral. ‘We have no knowledge about whereabouts of Osama bin Laden’. [Chitral] lies north of volatile Pakistani tribal regions where pro-Taliban and al-Qaida militants are active and where bin Laden has long been thought to be hiding. The police chief of Chitral... said it would be impossible for an outsider like bin Laden to hide in the town. He said that some Americans had stayed in Chitral recently and police had provided them security. He declined to give further details about the visitors, but said he was not aware that they were agents... Pakistan is a US ally in the war on terrorism, but any presence of US operatives on its soil is a sensitive one because of widespread opposition to that alliance, particularly among Islamic hard-liners. Earlier this month, Henry Crumpton, US amb in charge of counterterrorism, called parts of Pakistan’s border region a ‘safe haven’ for militants and said bin Laden was more likely to be hiding there than in Afghanistan. On [15 May], Pakistani FM spokeswoman said bin Laden was more likely to be in Afghanistan”; Scott Shane“Bin Laden Is Said to Talk of Moussaoui”NYT 23 May 06:-“In a new videotape posted on the Internet [23 May], Osama bin Laden reasserted his role as the planner of the 11 Sep 01 attacks and declared that Zacarias Moussaoui had played no role in the 2001 plot. Moussaoui was sentenced 04 May to life in [US] federal prison for failing to warn US authorities of the attacks. He had told jurors that he had conspired... to fly a plane into the White House on the day of the hijackings, but US intelligence officials have said there was no evidence to support that claim. [US] counterterrorism official said that [tape] speaker appeared to be bin Laden. Tape included English subtitles and a still photograph of the Qaeda leader in front of a plain white wall. During the four-and-a-half-minute tape, the voice believed to be that of bin Laden addresses ‘the American people’, saying Moussaoui had ‘no connection whatsoever’ with 11 Sep 01. According to a translation... bin Laden adds, ‘I am certain of what I say, because I was responsible for entrusting the 19 brothers... with those raids’. He says that the hijackers were divided into ‘pilots and support teams’ but that Moussaoui was ‘only learning to fly’. Bin Laden also lists others who he says had no role in 11 Sep attacks, including prisoners held by US in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and several individuals he describes as working for relief agencies and the news media. Counterterrorism official... called the tape ‘propaganda’ possibly intended to demonstrate that bin Laden, who is believed to be hiding in Pakistan or Afghanistan, ‘is still relevant and in touch with current events’”; AP“Bin Laden Said to Deny Moussaoui Role in 9/11"NYT 23 May 06:-“Osama bin Laden purportedly said in audio tape that neither Zacarias Moussaoui - the only person convicted in US for 11 Sep 01 attacks - nor anyone held at Guantanamo had anything to do with the al-Qaida operation... ‘I am the one in charge of the 19 brothers and I never assigned brother Zacarias to be with them on that mission’, he said, referring to the 19 highjackers. Counterterrorism officials in Washington... said US intelligence is aware of the bin Laden message. One said there is no reason to doubt its authenticity. Bin Laden also said none of the hundreds of terror suspects held at US prison at Guantanamo Bay was involved and most had no ties to al-Qaida... Bin Laden called all detainees innocent, claiming they were jailed to justify the cost of the war on terror... One official said message is part of bin Laden’s continuing effort to demonstrate he is a relevant extremist leader, who is knowledgeable of current events. Official said the message was made for proaganda purposes, and it does not contain any threats... ‘Brother Moussaoui was arrested two weeks before the events, and if he had known something - even very little - about the 11 Sep group, we would have informed the leader of the operation, Mohammad Atta, and the others... to leave US before being discovered’, bin Laden said. Bin Laden said Moussaoui’s confession - that he helped plan the attacks - was ‘void’, calling it the result of pressures during imprisonment... The audio message, which is less than five minutes long,.. if authentic would be the third by bin Laden this year... Bin Laden has not appeared in a video since Oct 04"; AP“Tapes From Osama Bin Laden Since 9 / 11"NYT 23 May 06:-Article identifies, each with date and in brief form, 15 audio and videotapes from Osama bin Laden since 11 Sep 01; AP“Excerpts of Latest Bin Laden Tape”NYT 23 May 06:-Translations of six “comments purportedly by terror leader Osama bin Laden in an audio tape posted on the Internet”; AP“New Tape Returns Bin Laden to Spotlight”NYT 24 May 06:-“Latest tape purportedly released by Osama bin Laden may be an attempt by al-Qaida chief to regain his eminence in the global terror network and raise his profile overall after being sidelined by insurgents in Iraq, terrorism experts said... [Expert at] Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore said increase in propaganda was apparently bin Laden’s attempt to compensate for his group’s loss of ability to mount attacks. US-led war on terror apparently has severely disrupted the portion of al-Qaida directly under bin Laden’s control, he said. That has allowed the head of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to capture the spotlight on the world terrorism stage watched by militant sympathizers”; AP“New Bin Laden Tape May Be Bid for Status”NYT 24 May 06:-“Osama bin Laden’s latest audiotape is both an attempt to trash US justice system and recapture his ‘thunder’as the world’s No. 1 terrorist, experts said. [Tape] indicative of al-Qaida’s revved-up propaganda machine, which is issuing an increasing number of messages from top leaders and showing a quicker reaction time to world events. It was bin Laden’s third tape this year... Bin Laden’s focus on Moussaoui may have had two purposes: to show the al-Qaida leader’s command of 11 Sep 01 attacks and to taunt US over its effort to prosecute terrorists... [F]oreign policy analyst... said bin Laden was seeking to weaken US... [Another expert] believed bin Laden issued tape to distance al-Qaida from a person who came across as ‘a lunatic’ because of his outbursts during trial... [Also] may be an attempt to stoke the debate on Guantanamo... New tape shows steep increase in al-Qaida’s volume of propaganda since Aug, said head of... US company that monitors militant message traffic”; AP “Osama Bin Laden Keeping a Low Profile”NYT 09 Jun 06:-“Tracking down Osama bin Laden has proven tougher than getting to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi because top al-Qaida leader keeps a lower profile, surrounds himself with far more faithful followers and has more places to hide, intelligence experts say. Mastermind of 11 Sep 01 attacks avoids using satellite phones and the Internet. Believed holed up along Pakistan’s border with Afghan in rugged, remote terrain, protected by loyal tribesmen... Al-Zarqawi was killed just 30 miles from Iraqi capital... ‘Osama bin Laden is a far more difficult leader of al-Qaida to be caught as compared to al-Zarqawi’, said...retired Pakistan army general. ‘Firstly, bin Laden is not involved in day-to-day operations and we believe that he enjoys support of much more loyal people’. Al-Zarqawi had a $25m bounty on his head - the same amount offered by US for information leading to bin Laden... US amb. in charge of counterterrorism... called parts of Pakistan’s border region a ‘safe haven’ for militants. He said bin Laden was more likely to be hiding there than in Afghanistan... Official said Pakistani forces, in cooperation with US-led coalition troops in Afghanistan, were working to get closer to bin Laden, but ‘so far we don’t have any clue on his whereabouts’. Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman... said he hopes al-Zarqawi’s death will invigorate hunt for bin Laden... More than 200,000 US-led coalition soldiers are deployed in Afghanistan pursuing Taliban/al-Qaida fighters. Pakistan has 80,000 soldiers in its Waziristan tribal region, the area regarded as the most likely hiding place for bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri. The two leaders are now fairly disconnected from al-Qaida’s activities... ‘They’ve been able to escape detection as they aren’t communicating and aren’t effectively involved in al-Qaida operations. It makes it very hard to run them down, but moves them significantly from an operational role to a symbolic one’, [a senior Western diplomat in Islamabad] said”; Economist 08 Jul 06 "Security in Asia: The Trouble With Pakistan"(Edit.10); "A Survey of Pakistan: Too Much for One Man To Do"(1-12); "Special Report: Afghanistan: A Geographical Expression in Search of a State"(22-4); "The Army in Afghanistan: Taliban Time for Britain"(50):-the four items are inter-related in their discussion of many problems that are both similar and found in two neighbouring states. Following is derived essentially from single Editorial commenting on both states. "Terrorism has many sources and claimed justifications, but if it can be said to have a centre, it lies in the training camps, madrassas and battlefields of northern Pakistan and south-eastern Afghanistan. There the Taliban and their ally, al-Qaeda, were both formed. From there, in hellish diaspora, jihadis have fanned out across the globe... [C]lear why what happens in those two places is of huge importance to the rest of the world. From neither place is there much good news. The West has invested a huge amount in Pakistan's General Pervez Musharraf, who seized power Oct 99... After 11 Sep 01 he was recast as a provider of relative stability in a dangerous neighbourhood and essential ally in 'war on terror'... In past 5 years, he has not done very much to make Pakistan a less dangerous place... [P]erhaps most damning criticism of Musharraf is that he continues to do grave damage to the long-term political health of Pakistan (see Survey)... It would not be fair to blame Pakistan for everything that is going wrong in Afghanistan. Government of Hamid Karzai is weak and corrupt; because of West's continued failure to live up to its promises, much of country, outside the big cities, is in the grip of bandits and warlords. But Pakistan's contribution...should not be underestimated. Both Taliban and remnants of al-Qaeda are able to take refuge on Pakistani soil, which makes job of the soldiers from Western countries who have been struggling to eliminate them for past 5 years much more difficult. Taliban... were in part a creation of Pakistan.., which saw in them a way to establish a friendly state on their western flank [since] locked in perpetual conflict with India to its east... As for al-Qaeda,.. Osama bin Laden is generally reckoned to be holed up in Pakistani soil... An unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan, intertwined with a chaotic and Taliban-dominated Afghanistan: it is not a settling prospect. It has all happened before. Result was 11 Sep 01"; Economist 12 Aug 06 "Special Report: The Horn of Africa: The Path to Ruin"(18-20):-perhaps the most ominous zone in the world, faced by very serious - and chronic - conflict, poverty, disorder, crowds, illness, drought crises. Item describes great variety, their reasons and prospects in"region endangered by Islamists, guns and its own swelling population... Horn of Africa long been haunted by hunger and violence[, with] early sign[s] these evils will continue, and worsen. Islamist expansionism in Somalia - and armed resistance to it - plus uncontrolled population growth throughout the area could result in whole pockets of Horn facing collapse. This would be a humanitarian disaster; it could also lead to a much wider conflict, involving several countries. [Hope] somehow find solutions for dramatic increase in Horn's population numbers [2030: Ethiopia 144m; Kenya 70m; Somalia 20m; Eritrea 10m]. So it may, in well-watered bits where land use can be intensified. In arid areas, little chance of this[:] nature and politics will play their part, and results disastrous. More regional fighting... between Somalia's Islamists, based in Mogadishu, and 'secularist' Somali government in Baidoa, backed by 'Christian' Ethiopia and US... UN relief sounding alarm about south Somalia/Ethiopia's vast Ogaden desert, where malnutrition far higher than emergency[, through population/environmental pressures]. Wouldn't take much for famine to seize hold of area [and] Al-Qaeda quick to see and exploit the fragility of Horn. [Osama] bin Laden [may] harbor hopes of opening up a new jihadist front in...borderlands of north Kenya, south Ethiopia and south Somalia[:] politically marginalised, awash with small arms, and environmentally strained. [R]adicals in Mogadishu [already] control the court militias[, ]increasingly holding sway[, and] working towards establishment of an Islamic emirate of Somalia... Borderlands among highest fertility rates in the world, particularly the Somalis[, and ] has been little progress in family planning... The Horn is [also] among most degraded ecosystems in world[:] only 5% of its original habitat remaining. [M]ain culprits in borderlands overgrazing and cutting down trees for fuel/charcoal. [G]overnment disarmament campaigns in Kenya and Ethiopia have faltered... War in Somalia could ignite other wars [such as] battles in northern Kenya[, while] an Ethiopian offensive in Somalia could result in Eritrea taking chance to attack Ethiopia... Main problem in borderlands remains stark environment[:] too many people/animals and not enough grass. [F]ighting over water, grazing, firewood and other scarce natural resources...If predicted increase in temperature does come about[,] borderlands will become unsustainable. [C]hanges are happening at breakneck speed [and] scale of potential misery becoming clearer. Estimates of famine victims in next few years range upwards from 10m. Risk of whole areas of Horn collapsing with famine and irreversible environmental damage, urged on by jihadist/tribal clashes, is clear cause for alarm"; Economist 02 Sep 06"The World Since September 11th: Five Years On"(Edit.9-10);"Special Report: September 11th 2001: [US]'s Longest War"(22-4):-"Essence of [al-Qaeda] idea..is that Islam is everywhere under attack by the infidel and that every Muslim has a duty to wage holy war, jihad, in its defence... Jihadists are hungry to topple...superpower. [S]ince 11Sep01, number of jihadists and their sympathisers has probably multiplied, partly as result of way US responded... Al-Qaeda operated openly in Afghanistan and enjoyed protection of its noxious Taliban regime, which refused US request to hand Osama bin Laden over. US invasion...therefore enjoyed broad international support... By 04 a first-ever free election had legitimated presidency of Hamid Karzai; parliament took office in 05. Now plagued by warlordism and opium trade, and Taliban mounting a challenge in the south. But not yet look capable of dislodging new government in Kabul. [I]nvasion deprived al-Qaeda of a haven for planning/training. [H]owever, invasion of Iraq in Mar03 providing jihadists with both a banner around which to recruit and a live arena in which to sharpen their military skills... Like most Sunni extremists, some in al-Qaeda regard Shia Muslims as virtual apostates[, and] organised so many attacks on Shias/holy places that Shias at last struck back, turning into a bitter sectarian war... In [Iraq] the battle for world opinion...had calamitous consequences. [M]illions of Muslims now think US real aim in Iraq was to grab its oil, help Israel, or, as bin Laden said all along, wage war on Islam... Bush/PM Blair refused after the war to be embarrassed by the absence of the [Iraqi] weapons that had so alarmed them beforehand. [Their] arguments no longer sell in the West, let alone the Muslim world... Hussein's was a secular dictatorship in which Islamists of all stripes kept their heads down... But portraying the whole enterprise as if it had from the start been all about an experiment in democracy just makes Muslims crosser. [Now] poll after poll shows deep distrust among traditional US allies... Bush has played straight into anti-US hands. One vast mistake has been his neglect to push seriously for creation of a Palestinian state... But worse has been his disregard for civil liberties [Abu Ghraib/Guantanamo. So US] won more recruits for the jihadists. Still, not everything has gone al-Qaeda's way either. [I]f bin Laden's aim was to topple pro-US regimes in Muslim world, he has failed... Saudi regime...is still standing, and so far... the violence has served mainly to strengthen it. Another prize to have eluded al-Qaeda is Pakistan. [Also,] all of al-Qaeda's efforts to kill Musharraf, or to deflect from US alliance... have so far come to naught... [J]ihadists' grandiose aims and gruesome methods have prevented them from turning a resentment of US into an appetite for revolution at home. Most of [Iraqi] victims of al-Qaeda have been fellow Muslims,[while] attacks inside such as Indonesia/Turkey/Jordan, where the victims were mainly Muslim, have turned local people away from al-Qaeda's cause. If anything, that cause may have fared better in the West, among those whose identity as Muslims has come to take precedence over loyalty to the host country [Britain/Canada].To many susceptible Muslims the message that the faith is everywhere under attack is evidently compelling. Jihadists are skilled at weaving the 'resistance' in Palestine/Lebanon/ Kashmir/Chechnya/ Iraq/Afghanistan into single narrative of persecution by the infidel. [H]ijackers proved in US/Madrid that small numbers of terrorists can produce devastating results. [J]ihadist notion that the faith is everywhere under attack looks absurd [cf. Palestine/Caucasus/ Kashmir/Balkans/East Timor]. In Kosovo, NATO [protected] Muslims from Christians. [Y]et a troubling recent development is emergence in US of an equal and opposite distortion[:] idea that West and its values are everywhere under attack, and everywhere by the same seamless front... It is wrong to look at post-11Sep world this way, as if every local conflict is part of a civilisational clash [cf. Hamas/Hizbullah/ Iran]. [T]errorism was the background noise of the second half of 20th century. But 11Sep seemed to portend something new... Al-Qaeda's fantastic aims - sweeping away regimes, reversing history and restoring the caliphate - are married to an appetite for killing that knows no limits. It boasts openly that it is seeking nuclear weapons... The world must still strive to destroy al-Qaeda and, even more, the idea it represents. But it had better do so with cleverer means than those Bush has used so far" Economist 02 Sep 06"Special Report:The Middle East: A Big And Then a Bigger Mess"(25-6):-"Bombing of Beirut's suburbs was ugly episode in the latest of many nasty Mideast wars... Al-Qaeda's attacks did not themselves change Mideast, but...more now share Osama bin Laden's feeling Islam is under attack, and that US is their enemy. [S]wift intervention in Afghanistan Nov 01 bothered many Muslims, if only because it evoked memories of colonial invasions. But...most quietly glad to see obscurantist Taliban defeated... Determined US policies produced some tangible results... Yet several things went wrong. 'Crusade' to describe war on terror [created] damage... When Bush said you are either with us or against us, he in effect pushed fence-sitters into enemy camp... Iraq turned into crucible for terrorism[: US] so like Israelis stomping on Palestinans that many Arabs/Muslims grew simply to equate occupations as twin assaults. Guanatanamo/Abu Ghraib silenced US remaining fans. [R]eason for US invasion [seen as:] to control Iraqi oil/build military bases/help Israel[,and frightened] those who opposed US policy/ emboldened Iran... Hizbullah felt encouraged to escalate its hostility to Israel. Currency of anti-US [views] boosted Islamists[, including] Muslim Brotherhood. Most dramatic Islamist advance came in Palestine. Despite Bush's declared wish to see creation of Palestinian state, US did little to make it happen. Bush was disenchanted with Arafat... Israeli settlement accelerated. In Mar 02 all 22 Arab heads of state... agreed to end conflict if Israel withdrew to its pre-67 borders. However...Ariel Sharon reoccup[ied] West Bank, and idea went nowhere [except] evacuat[ion of] Gaza Strip. [L]ikelihood of resolution looked further away than ever. Palestinians voted in Hamas. Israelis elected...plan for unilateral withdrawal behind controversial 'security barrier' until peace. [S]oon clear that plan would not suit Israel after all[: t]o many, recent war in Lebanon, and Hizbullah's rain of rockets, proved that any disengagement with Arab neighbours in absence of political guarantees would be big mistake. Meanwhile, suffering of most Palestinians continued to mount[, so] Arabs said it was hypocritical to promote democracy and then balk at its results. Within this gloomy picture, [dizzy oil price] stands out". Greg Mortenson & David Oliver Relin Three Cups of Tea: One Man's Mission to Fight Terrorism and Build Nations... One School at a Time (New York: Viking 06):-a beautifully written (by Relin), and very popular book: (often-quoted) Mortenson's extraordinary gift of life to northernmost Pakistan and Afghanistan. As a poor but pure mountain climber in 1993 he nearly died in attempting to conquer K2, "world's deadliest peak" whose height is exceeded only by Everest. He survived through the warm hospitality of an isolated, poverty-stricken village in Karakorum, Himalaya. He found it had no school, almost no access to rest of Pakistan; so in extraordinary thanks Greg promised to return one day and build a school for their boys and girls. On return to US, he launched what gradually became"one of the most remarkable humanitarian campaigns of our time". As director of the Central Asia Institute, Greg has built 55 schools serving Pakistan and Afghanistan's poorest communities. "He provides not only hope to tens of thousands of children, but living proof that one passionately dedicated person truly can change the world".

Next item(drafted Oct 06),supported by varied Ottawans, is listed often as very broad issues are involved.

Christopher Spencer REASONS WHY ALL SOCIETIES ON EARTH MUST COOPERATE - IN TERMS OF BOTH THEIR WEALTH AND KNOWLEDGE - IN ORDER TO SURVIVE:-Brief paragraphs first identify some genuine and trans-species (but not simply idealistic) physical and emotional human traditions, confrontations, disasters, or prospects that raise globally-relevant threats. These are followed by a few relatively cheap and realistic, but world-wide and trans-human, policies. The challenges reflect the already serious - and often inter-related - concerns of everyone, everywhere: all human beings now face “global” threats in terms of: (a) mobile, unprecedented inter-human violence; (b) widespread, potentially global, mis-health; (c) dangers generated to the earth on which all survive.

(1) All the wealthier societies on the planet now possess grand and growing assets of both physical goods - far beyond essential human needs - and rapidly-expanding scientific/technical/economic knowledge - enough to create/improve their comfort and health. It now appears possible, and universally profitable in terms of generating the good trade and health of all, to share such quantities of global assets with all who lack them, so all groups could fully address painful and globally-destabilizing needs. Even if competition were the pure motivation of large advanced companies, they would develop globally.

(2) Yet throughout the history of human beings, and contrary to the philosophy of the world’s strongest religions, four social factors have been dominant among the whole species: human groups have been mainly small (families or villages); their members have been grossly ignorant about almost all other groups’ characteristics, strengths and problems; they have exhibited deep and general dislike and often fear towards all other groups; and, above all, have felt no sense of responsibility for them. Violence against, or at least selfishness towards, other groups has been chronic - but is suddenly not beneficial.

(3) Now, for the first time in human history, the entire planet is massively/increasingly interdependent, not simply in terms of ‘globalization’ trade, but also regarding enormous travels/transfers of humans, goods and bacteria between societies. We are also now living in unprecedented planetwide situations where basic global knowledge is both vast and expanding - often via TV/Internet/phones in even isolated villages. All human beings, however rich/poor, educated/formally ignorant, global travellers/physically fixed, are potentially aware of other groups with greater/other power or assets - and/or apparent harm or nonrelationship - in their own societies or another. Any group can feel independent/hurt/frustrated/ opinioned toward another, physically or emotionally. Nature/scale of interdependence: widely unknown.

(4) An unprecedented but expanding global fact is that ills, ranging from the mildly-harmful to the multi-fatal, can now easily be transferred via weapons, explosives, poisons, virus, serious misuse of nature. The deliberate, unknown or accidental transfer of critical action to virtually anywhere else on earth, by land, sea or air - could in future be, deliberately or otherwise, generated or passed by groups or individuals that may or may not wish to inflict some ‘pain’ on others. Victims of such action/accident can be in or from any society at all, and can hurt any type or groups of humans, animals, machines, transport, buildings, towns or key liquids/gases/foods/medicines/power-sources etc. The effects of deliberate or accidental “spreads” or organized action range from minor diseases to mass murders.

(5) Any group will ultimately be responsible for “using” any of a variety of existing or developable actions against/in any society on earth. Hence an essential way to reduce the world-wide threat - apart from easing sharp and dangerous ill-feelings - must involve help in reducing serious/perceived pain/poverty/ (potential)disease/global misuse. It would also involve obtaining - through cooperative intelligence/law among all regimes everywhere - advance information about relevant threats -since any/all societies may somehow be threatened. But the most defensive and selfishly-beneficial means of easing global threats is for the wealthier/more informed to provide the funds/goods/skills necessary to accelerate equity - by both offering and obtaining relevant knowledge. Richer societies would no longer live safely while ignoring any others’ agonies - nor even suffer from giving assistance. Isolation is no longer an option - anywhere - for any rich and/or traditional society. We must all think, at least minimally, as global citizens.

The Economist 21 Oct 06 "Iraq: Between Staying and Going"(Edit.12); "Special Report: The Arab World: Coalitions of the Unwilling"(25-8); "Moderates and Rejectionists: The Palestinian Test Case"(28):-while the three items' emphases vary, the main problems stressed are interrelated. Editorial's own summary:"A search for new ideas should not blind Americans to the stark choice they face in Iraq". Highlights:"[They] long for a middle way. Why not split the country into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish statelets? Instead of going right now, why not set a timetable, to galvanise the warring parties to settle their differences before a free-for-all? One far-fetched idea...is said to be to withdraw 'over the horizon' and control Iraq from a neighbouring country. Another is... to be less fastidious about establishing democracy, and concentrate on smaller aim of establishing a government that works. [N]one of these...stands up to scrutiny... At end of day, the three-pronged policy US is already pursuing may very well be the best of a bad lot. Stated briefly, this consists of trying to keep the lid on the violence, build up Iraq's own security forces, and prod Iraqi politicians into making a power-sharing deal... If US willing to stay... for a few more years, success is still possible... Only honest alternative is indeed probably just to go, and let one side win... But just going would be a fantastic gamble, not only with US's global power/prestige, but also with other people's lives. Better, still, to stay". Special's own summary:"Resistance to the West, and rejection of Israel, are the pillars of a rapidly strengthening alliance in the world's most volatile region". This substantial essay offers the following introductory arguments: "Some [of Mideast's] imagined threats to the global order have been leftist and nationalist, some reactionary and religious, some radical and violent. Yet all have drawn their mobilising power from... urge to challenge the dominant perceived injustice of the day... Most reliable populist cry today remains 'resistance': [Sudan, Iraq, Hizbullah]. Clearly, although times have changed, this dynamic has not. What has changed is that the call to resist now inspires unprecedented enthusiasm, galvanizing many disparate political streams at once, secular and nationalist as well as Islamist. Religious element, boosted by the great revival that has swept Muslim societies across the globe, adds a scriptural drumbeat to the call. Lately the impulse to resist also strengthened by failing prestige of traditional countervailing forces - US, moderate governments in region, and liberal-minded minority of their citizens". These points are then well-amplified. It concludes:"[C]lear that a powerful sector of Islamist opinion is so fundamentally rejectionist that it will never change. Best the West can do may be to ensure does not push more moderates into that camp. Could start by remembering that people choose to 'resist' when they feel threatened". Palestinian item's thrust: "Pressures on Hamas build from both sides...In recent months, poor Palestinians have, not for first time, found themselves used as rope in tug-of-war between Mideast 'accomodationist' and 'rejectionist' governments. [Yet] split would truly render PA ungovernable and peace talks impossible. Noah Feldman"Islam, Terror and the Second Nuclear Age"New York Times 29 Oct 06:-this is the leading article of the New York Times Magazine of this date, and runs to 18 pages when printed from the Internet. This time the author is identified as follows:"Noah Feldman, a contributing writer, is a law professor at New York University and adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations". Summarized extracts from the introductory section: "Today the nuclear game in [Mideast] has changed. When Arab League's SG... called for 'a Mideast free of nuclear weapons' this past May, it wasn't Israel that prompted his remarks. He was worried about Iran, whose self-declared ambition to become nuclear power has been steadily approaching realization. The anti-Israel statements of Iranian president.,. coupled with Iran's support for Hezbollah and Hamas, might lead you to think that Arab states would welcome Iran's nuclear program... But interests of Shiite non-Arab Iran do not always coincide with those of Arab leaders. A nuclear Iran... could potentially mean... a historic shift in the position of the long-subordinated Shiite minority relative to the power/prestige of the Sunni majority... Sunni Arab leaders...also seem worried that Iranians might actually use nuclear weapons if they got them. A nuclear attack on Israel would engulf the whole region. But that is not the only danger: Sunnis in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere fear that Iranians might just use a nuclear bomb against them... If Iran is going to get the bomb, its neighbours will have no choice but to keep up. North Korea, now protected by its own bomb, has threatened proliferation - and in the Mideast it would find a number of willing buyers... Given the increasing instability of the Mideast, nuclear proliferation there is more worrisome than almost anywhere else on earth. As nuclear technology spreads, terrorists will enjoy increasing odds of getting their hands on nuclear weapons... Bombing through an intermediary has its advantages: deniability is, after all, the name of the game for a government trying to avoid nuclear retaliation. [A]s more countries get the bomb, tracing the seller will become harder and harder, and the incentive to make a sale will increase". Much of item carefully discusses rationales used by/for Islamic killers of themselves, infidels, civilians, women and children; AP“Poll: Bush Policy Threatens World Peace” NYT 03 Nov 06:-“A majority of people in Canada, Britain and Mexico think President Bush and his foreign policy pose a threat to world peace and worry the US will invade Iran or North Korea within two years, according to polling received. The polls by the Ottawa-based EKOS Research also found that the respondents in Canada, Britain, Mexico and Israel believe Osama bin Laden poses the gravest danger to the world of five national or militant group leaders included in the poll, followed by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, then Bush, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah”; General Sir Rupert Smith The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World (London: Allen Lane 05):- over past decades, both the nature and volume of global violence has changed. Threat of inter-sovereign wars, let alone WWIII, has virtually ended. It has been replaced by very serious forms of current or potential violence involving groups of people rather than formal states. My own reaction (Christopher Spencer op.cit.)is on urgent global cooperation in politics/economics/knowledge. This very influential book, by "one of the world's most experienced generals and leading military thinkers", addresses the essential need to restructure/reapproach (inter)national armed forces. The three major parts ("may be read separately as...essays") address:"Interstate Industrial War"(describes Napoleon to 1945); "The Cold War Confrontation" (including Confrontation and Conflict and Capabilities:The Search for a New Way); and "War Amongst the People" (including Trends: Our Modern Operations, Direction: Setting the Purpose for the Use of Force, and Bosnia: Using Force Amongst the People). Finally "Conclusion: What Is to Be Done". From Introduction: "War no longer exists. Confrontation, conflict and combat undoubtedly exist all round the world... and states still have armed forces which they use as a symbol of power. None the less, war as cognitively known to most non-combatants, war as a battle in a field between men and machinery, war as a massive deciding event in a dispute in international affairs: such war no longer exists...(p.1). War amongst the people is characterized by six major trends: (1)The ends for which we fight are changing...;(2) We fight amongst the people...;(3) Our conflicts tend to be timeless...;(4) We fight so as not to lose the force...;(5) On each occasion new uses are found for old weapons...;(6) The sides are mostly non-state...(p.17). Final paragraph ends: "We now are engaged, constantly and in many permutations, in war amongst the people. We must adapt our approach and organize our institutions to this overwhelming reality if we are to triumph in the confrontations and conflicts that we face"(p.404); Economist 25 Nov 06"The Future of NATO: The Test in Afghanistan"(Edit.12);"Special Report: NATO's Future: Predictions of its Death Were Premature"(24-6):-official summary of Editorial:"Thanks to some shortsighted European politicians, the world's foremost military alliance is at risk". Highlights: "[W]ith demise of Soviet communism,.. alliance has grown bigger,.. is busier than it ever was during cold war [and] faces many tricky questions about the future... NATO's leaders must find unity of purpose on one issue above all others: overcoming the weaknesses of mission in Afghanistan [where] for first time engaged in bloody ground combat. Task made even harder by two failures[:] to modernize... armies for expeditionary operations [or] to send soldiers... to dangerous regions where most needed. Although have 2.4m men under arms, NATO's European members...struggled to meet requests for extra 2,200... British and Dutch have put troops at sharp end in southern Afghanistan, heartland of Taliban[, while] Canadians...spearheaded NATO's assault on entrenched Taliban fighters. [But] too many others... are working in safer areas and refused to be deployed as NATO commander would like... It is difficult for any government to expose soldiers to danger in far-away lands; harder still to watch one's soldiers die while allies look the other way. No excuse for such half-heartedness. In Afghanistan, as distinct from Iraq, there should be no quarrel about the lawfulness of the mission. NATO is in the country under a UN mandate, operating in defence and at the behest of an elected government. The stakes are high: failure would not only bring back the Taliban and al-Qaeda, but embolden jihadists around the world. Military alliance that stretches across Atlantic will not always be able to unify around such a clear cause... NATO and EU do not need to see each other as competitors... Nor should a stronger NATO mean a weaker role for UN... May even be a case for UN one day to recruit military forces of its own, capable of intervening in conflicts under a UN mandate. [Now] NATO remains world's foremost military alliance. [Members] may no longer face one common enemy, but they face common dangers, including terrorism, Islamic radicalism, increasingly troublesome Russia, Iran nuclear ambitions and instability in Mideast. [A]ll the more reason not to fail the test in Afghanistan"; Alan Cowell“Blair Urges Keeping Nuclear Arms Program Alive”NYT 04 Dec 06:-“Citing a potential nuclear threat from nations like North Korea and Iran, PM Tony Blair urged legislators to extend the life of Britain’s nuclear arms program with a new generation of submarines costing as much as $40b... Blair proposed a plan to replace four Vanguard nuclear-powered submarines, equipped with Trident D5 missiles... that he said were the nation’s only nuclear deterrent... Blair insisted Britain should not dispense with its nuclear capacity. ‘The risk of giving up something that has been one of the mainstays of our security since the war, and moreover doing so when the one certain thing about our world today is its uncertainty, is not a risk I feel we can responsibly take’, he said in Parliament... Blair said, ‘The new dimension is undoubtedly the desire by states, highly dubious in their intentions, like North Korea and Iran, to pursue nuclear weapons capacity... We know... global terrorism seeks chemical, biological and nuclear devices. It is not impossible to contemplate a rogue government help such an acquisition’”; AP“Blair Unveils Plan for Nuclear Missiles”NYT 04 Dec 06:-“PM Tony Blair launched plans for a new multibillion-dollar submarine-based nuclear missile defense system, warning lawmakers the future may hold perilous threats from rogue regimes and state-sponsored terrorists... Blair told House of Commons that despite the end of the Cold War, potential threats were posed by North Korea, Iran and others... Debates over a new warhead program are expected to stir up fierce divisions in his Labour party, once committed to unilateral nuclear disarmament”; William Yardley “A Missile Defense System Is Taking Shape in Alaska” NYT 04 Dec 06:-“Four years after President Bush ordered a limited missile defense system to be built and nearly a quarter century after Ronald Reagan first proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative, [Fort Greely, Alaska] sub-Arctic outpost,.. is where progress on the long-embattled missile system is perhaps most evident, military officials say. Eleven interceptor missiles are installed in underground silos [there]. This summer, when North Korea signaled that it planned to fire an intercontinental ballistic, Fort Greely, which has never fired a test missile, was put on alert status... Critics have noted that tests on some parts of the system have failed and a recent successful missile test - in California - lacked decoys and was unrealistic. Even as questions persist about capability, the missile defense program is pushing forward at a cost of at least $9b a year... Fort Greely is better situated to interrupt the likely flight path of a missile from Asia or the Mideast... [N]umber of interceptors installed at the base is expected to expand to as many as 38"; Economist 13 Jan 2007"Israel and the Jews: Diaspora Blues"(Edit.14-5); "Israel and the Jews: Second Thoughts About the Promised Land"(53-6):-Editorial's official summary:-"Jews around the world should join the debate about Israel, not just defend whatever it does". Highlights: "Early settlers came for a variety of reasons:.. to escape stifling constraints of religious dogma;.. hasten the coming of Messiah;.. as anti-Semitism grew, [gain] a safe haven; after the Holocaust, save Jewish lives. Soon another role: being a potential Israeli citizen became one of the anchor points of what it means to be a Jew. Since [its establishment,] Jews have continued debating/reshaping relationships to country. Secular Jews found Israeliness a handy substitute for religious observance. Some religious Jews revived... messianic Zionism, holding that to settle in all biblical land... is a God-given duty. To...ultra-Orthodox, state should [be] subsidising Jewish learning/maintaining piety... Meanwhile, diaspora Jews have developed an even more eclectic mix of Jewish culture and attitudes to Zionism(see 53-6),partly because... growing number neither feel comfortable with always standing up for Israel, nor... invoke Israel in defining Jewish[ness]. Yet big Jewish diaspora institutions not caught up[, but] still supporting [Israel] in times of crisis/critics. [True especially of] lobby groups in US, formed to influence foreign policy in Israel's favour... Their attitude persists [in suggesting Israel's] critics are anti-Semites[, and they] have an unholy alliance with evangelical Christian groups. This knee-jerk defensiveness of Israel does not help Jewish diaspora in keeping young Jews from leaving the faith [and] many are simply drifting away. [Also,] it locks diaspora Jews out of the fateful/often bitter debates that rage inside Israel itself[, where] interests have been diverging. [Israelis] disagree on the most basic questions: borders, who is a Jew, role of religion, status of non-Jews... Israeli Jews swim in a sea of conflicting ideas about who they should be... Helping Israel should no longer mean defending it uncritically. [D]iaspora institutions should...encourage lively debate about Israeli politics[,] allowing an Israel at peace to return to its original vocation of providing a safe and democratic haven for the world's Jews. Other items in this issue offer information on Israeli attitudes towards/from some vital Mideasterners (titles/pages plus official summaries): "Israel and Iran: How Imminent Or Real a Threat?"(43):-"Israelis vary in their views of Iranian menace"; "Obituary: Teddy Kollek"(78):-"Theodor('Teddy')Kollek, mayor of Jerusalem, died on 02 Jan 07, aged 95"; Economist 13 Jan 07 "Chinese Foreign Policy: A Quintet, Anyone?"(37-8):-complements 06Jan"China: Coming Over the Horizon" item on trends in global role of a developing superpower. Official summary: "China making it clear it wants a bigger role in Mideast". Highlights:"[I]n Mideast, China is on good terms with everyone [and its] non-government seminar [of] former senior Israeli and Palestinian officials reached consensus...China should increase its influence in Mideast, and join 'Quartet'... pursuing peace efforts... To all sides, it still has much to offer. To oil-export[ers, it is] big customer/investor[; to Iran and Syria[, its] veto power at UN and shared misgivings about US make it a welcome friend. Refreshingly, China asks no questions about democracy. Israel... courts China['s] potential influence[, knowing they] share distaste for Islamic militancy [and are important military industry producers/markets]. US worries China has been hesitant to put pressure on Iran[, its] third-biggest supplier of oil, and Sudan[, where] China has invested hugely in oil. China sees advantages for itself in any diminution of US power[;] US preoccupation in Iraq strengthens China's hand in its dealings with Taiwan. In both Sudan and Iran, China has often balked at US-led initiatives in UN that could be seen as legitimising strong-arm tactics against countries deviating from international norms. China fear[ed] it might be next[, but] has recently edged closer to US position... Despite disdain for US-led invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan,.. it has not attempted to frustrate US operations[,] has pledged more than $300m for Afghan reconstruction, begun debt-[cancel] negotiations with Iraq[ and, s]ince 1990s, far more sympathetic to US concerns about weapons proliferation. China worries about its dependence on US military might for the security of its oil shipments from Mideast [(see 06 Jan)] so has little choice but to support efforts to stabilise the region. It may not agree with US tactics, but will share the same broad objective". In same issue, these three items (their titles/pages plus their official summaries) discuss China's equally-vital international financial/trade relations: "Chinese Business: Truth From Facts"(Edit.13-4):-"The best test of China's new accounting standards: a few public disasters"; "Chinese Accounting: Cultural Revolution"(63-4):-"New accounting rules have replaced the Little Red Book [by Mao] as China's guide to self-improvement. Can the state handle the truth?"; "Briefing: The Problem With Made in China"(68-70):-"China is choking on its success at attracting the world's factories. That has handed its Asian neighbours a big opportunity"; The Economist 20 Jan 07"Global Terrorism: On the March, Not On the Run"(69-70):-official summary: "Intelligence agencies see worrying signs of al-Qaeta’s revival". Highlights:"Western leaders until recently... thought... campaign against al-Qaeda gone quite well... Taliban regime in Afghanistan gave al-Qaeda sanctuary. After West toppled regime 2001, officials believed it was largely broken up. Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri sent video/audio messages... but did not appear to control operations ‘franchised’ to local groups. In Europe, jihadist cause taken up by home-grown extremists[, though] their outrages [eg London] could not match al-Qaeda’s spectaculars... But in Jan 07,..US... intelligence chief changed tone. Al-Qaeda’s core leadership was ‘resilient’,.. hiding places in Pakistan ‘secure’and ‘cultivating stronger operational connections/relationships’ with affiliated groups across Mideast/north Africa/Europe... In Nov 06, head [British] security agency said.:. contending with some 200 terrorist networks involving 1,600 suspects, and investigating up to 30 high-priority plots. Home-grown radicals... trained/guided by al-Qaeda on ‘extensive/growing scale’... Investigations/court cases in Britain cast light on enduring role of al-Qaeda in attacks on West, especially from Pakistan. [One planned radioactive ‘dirty bomb’...in London, plus attacks in US. Another. said to have attended training camp in Sudan, plotted to blow up 10 aircraft London-US, using liquid explosives/involved links in Pakistan. Group of Muslim citizens said to have planned to attack Canadian parliament.] Western security officials say the revitalisation of al-Qaeda partly due to ‘pressure is off’ in North Waziristan, Pakistani tribal region where army agreed ceasefire with militants. Afghan/NATO commanders complain truce has also provided cross-border safe havens for Taliban. [See"Afghanistan and Pakistan: They Walk the Line"(52):- official summary:"A border dispute disguised as a counter-insurgency strategy".] Western officials also worry about ‘blowback’ from Iraq:.. battle-hardened fighters to wage violent campaigns elsewhere in the world. [While al-Qaeda/sympathisers taken beating in Somalia,] al-Qaeda may be growing stronger in north Africa [through merger with] Algeria’s Salafist Group for Call and Combat -‘thorn in necks of US/French crusaders’. ‘Al-Qaeda not on the run’, says Bruce Hoffman, Georgetown Univ. ‘It is on the march’"; The Economist 24 Feb 07"Briefing: Afghanistan‛s War: A Double Spring Offensive"(28-30):-official summary:"After a dreadful year in Afghanistan, a newly confident NATO is preparing itself to take on the Taliban. Success will be difficult, but not impossible". Highlights:"Over past two months,.. Taliban have been pushed back by NATO‛s firepower, and their continued pot-shots are, for the moment, little more than harassment... Taliban are good shots, conceal themselves well and evacuate their casualties efficiently... The problem is the wider strategy. Taliban have seemingly inexhaustible supply of recruits, enjoy sanctuary in Pakistan and almost certainly have greater staying power than the foreign troops... Just for now, [situation] is good enough for NATO. After a dreadful year of violence in 2006, when security in the south appeared to collapse, the alliance has rediscovered a sense of confidence and believes it has regained the initiative... NATO will not again be caught by surprise when, as expected, Taliban step up the fight in the spring. International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a NATO-led coalition of 37 countries, strolled almost casually into the heart of Taliban country as it deployed for the first time in the south and east of Afghanistan last summer. It was ill prepared for the ensuing fight that cost the lives of some 3,700 Afghans and 191 soldiers from ISAF and the separate US-led coalition, Operation Enduring Freedom... All this has changed, at least temporarily. The level of violence has decreased sharply and the ring road is safer... But whether this is real progress, or the result of Taliban taking their habitual winter break, will become clear only after the snows melt... NATO is feeling bullish. Along with Afghanistan‛s own forces, it is preparing ‛Operation Nowrouz‛ (new year), a spring offensive to disrupt the Taliban‛s spring offensive. [I]ntelligence cooperation is improving, with creation of a joint NATO-Afghan-Pakistan intelligence cell in Kabul. Above all, the alliance has been energised by US‛s intensified commitment. [But] NATO will still be stretched thin. [Yet] the country has seen real achievements since the fall of Taliban, not least the growth in education and health care... and the return of more than 3m refugees. The north and west are relatively stable[, b]ut the Afghan government remains weak, and this is as much of a problem as the strength of the Taliban... The Afghan army is being expanded rapidly, but desertion rates are high and the quality is often poor... The few decent Afghan army units are badly overworked [and] police are in even worse shape... NATO believes that Taliban are intimately bound up with the opium trade in the south, and that drugs money finances the insurgency... NATO officials worry that antagonising farmers with forced eradication will only strengthen the insurgency... Neither the drugs trade nor the insurgency can be controlled so long as the border remains uncontrolled [-] the Taliban still enjoy sanctuary in Pakistan"; Economist 14 Apr 07"Pakistan's Tribal Areas: A Safe Haven for Terrorists"(Edit.12-3); "Pakistan's Militant Drift: Taliban All Over"(43-6):-Editorial's official summary:"For its own sake as well as the world's, Pakistan must tackle the lawlessness in its tribal areas". Highlights:"The battle in Afghanistan with a resurgent Taliban - the Islamist puritans who, when in power, gave refuge to al-Qaeda - is indeed crucial to the 'war on terror'. But [neither] can be defeated in Afghanistan alone because have 'strategic depth'... in Pakistan - or rather, in a twilight zone of semi-autonomous anarchy , the Federally Administered Tribal Areas(FATA). More than 3m live in this rugged region where ethnic Pushtun [in both] west of Pakistan/east of Afghanistan along 600km border. In... South Waziristan, Pakistan claims... more than 250 foreign militants, almost all Uzbeks, killed[, but] really highlights failure of Pakistani strategy in FATA. [and] extremists have taken hold in tribal areas - a grave threat to [both] Afghanistan/Pakistan... In Sep 01, Pakistan's Musharraf ostensibly ditched friendship with Taliban, ally his intelligence service had nurtured many years[, and] sent 80,000 troops into FATA to take on militants - but... radicalized local population[, and] in places [his] 'political agents' [rule] collapsed altogether. Accordingly changed tack, restraining army and seeking deals with local tribal leaders/militants, under which they will refrain from attacks on Pakistan and... prevent cross-border attacks. But this, too, appears failed: Taliban raids have increased sharply. Claim that recent bloodshed shows tribal fights turning on foreign Afghan-bound jihadists is distortion. Reasons for violence are murky [see"Militant..."item - b]ut local fighters are themselves Taliban affiliates. [W]hat should Pakistan do? (1) Own up tribal areas... largely ungoverned. (2) Incorporate [them] into Pakistan proper [so] moderation prevails [and since] people want law/political freedoms/development/modernity... Until Musharraf changes his approach in tribal areas, [nation-wide] suspicions will linger"; Economist 19 May 07"Pakistan: Time to Cut a Deal"(Edit.10):-official sum:"General Pervez Musharraf needs allies. Pakistan needs democracy. Enter Benazir Bhutto?" Highlights:"[This] key ally in fight against terrorism is facing the first large-scale popular protests since he grabbed power. [S]laughter of around 40 in Karachi 12-13 May was country‛s worst non-sectarian political violence in decades [and it] looks more unstable than ever". Analysis of a globally-relevant crisis in a state both complicated and strategically-located, offers the reasons/implications:"Briefing: Pakistan: A General State of Disarray"(23-5):-official sum:"A slaughter in Karachi/vengeful judge are signs... Musharraf is struggling to remain in power". Editorial continues:"A small war with al-Qaeda supporters along border with Afghanistan is fueling a wave of jihadist terrorism. In Islamabad, a hardline mosque staffed by armed zealots is defying government. Indeed, general's efforts to fight these forces, and his pro-US stance, are part of reason so unpopular. But a panicky clampdown not solve problems. Killing in Karachi carried out by weak [Musharraf coalition]. Many victims protested against his attempt to sack head of Supreme Court[, including] Pakistan's two mainstream parties, led by exiled former PMs, Benazir Bhutto/Nawaz Sharif. Violence was intolerable [and] unlikely to succeed[:] democracy has been rekindled... Combating militancy... requires more than hunting down militants[:] democratic institutions needed to address the defections terrorism feeds upon. [Musharraf understands this, yet] his efforts at controlled democracy have failed. [E]lections alone do not add up to 'real democracy'[, but] nor does autocrat. [E]lection is due this year which Musharraf looks determined to survive[: be] re-elected president in last days of current parliament. Common sense/constitution dictate he should instead seek election from next one[, so] legal challenges ahead. [That's]why he wants to see back of [the judge. He] can do better than this[: in aligning with US against extremism, and in efforts to make peace with India, he has shown foresight/readiness to take right risks. He needs to do the same to broaden his political support. Ms Bhutto, who leads biggest/most liberal party, thought to have offered to support his reform agenda/re-election. Price would be to escape corruption charges that hang over her, allowing return. She also demands fair election, and that general keep to constitution/ shed uniform. [Deal looks least-bad option: Bhutto's demands are admirable for country. Pakistan needs genuine democracy, not imitation. [A]lso needs continuity/ stability army man able to provide... If general fears he would lose most from such cooperation, he is wrong. Without greater legitimacy, opposition will grow and his authority will diminish"; Economist 26 May 07"Lebanon: The Cauldron May Bubble Over Again"(47-8):-official sum:-"The latest outbreak of violence in northern Lebanon menaces the whole region". Highlights:-"Fighting between Lebanese army and radical Islamists entrenched in a Palestine refugee camp near Tripoli. [M]any of camp's 30,000 residents fled[, but] militants inside declared a fight to the death [-] a radical jihadist faction known as Fatah al-Islam... Though small/marginal, [it] has been linked to at least one of sporadic bomb attacks that have hit Christian areas... Violence comes at difficult time for Lebanon, shaken by devastating war with Israel last summer, [and] Western-backed government locked in stand-off against pro-Syrian coalition led by Hizbullah [demanding] veto-wielding share of cabinet. Though fighting in north pits a widely disparaged Sunni Muslim group against a national army.,. many Lebanese view clash through prism of this wider political contest. [O]fficials charge Syria is sowing such strife to regain its power-broking role [or] block [UNSC-involved] tribunal to try suspects in a string of political murders[, but] adamantly denies any link. [M]ost of Lebanon's Palestinian camps [long] controlled by Syrian military intelligence[, which] also known to have sponsored jihadist groups - against US in Iraq. Leader of Fatah al-Islam, whose ideology close to al-Qaeda's, [was ] in Syria before surfacing in Lebanon last year. [G]roup has recruited not only among Palestinian refugees [there], but also among international jihadists... When violence erupted, Palestinian factions united with Lebanon's rival parties, including Hizbullah, in rare unanimous condemnation of Fatah al-Islam as dangerous/alien force, [although] anxiety grew over danger to civilians [and] shelling looked indiscriminate... Some [refugees] claim gunmen holding the camp hostage[, while] most Lebanese solidly back their army, and government bolstered by support from Arab League/US... Whatever outcome, fighting is also reminder that Lebanon - and rest of world - should not let country's wretched Palestinian camps continue to fester as ghettos of misery/extremism which stoke up anger across region";

Economist 26 May 07"Lebanon: The Cauldron May Bubble Over Again"(47-8):-official sum:-"The latest outbreak of violence in northern Lebanon menaces the whole region". Highlights:-"Fighting between Lebanese army and radical Islamists entrenched in a Palestine refugee camp near Tripoli. [M]any of camp's 30,000 residents fled[, but] militants inside declared a fight to the death [-] a radical jihadist faction known as Fatah al-Islam... Though small/marginal, [it] has been linked to at least one of sporadic bomb attacks that have hit Christian areas... Violence comes at difficult time for Lebanon, shaken by devastating war with Israel last summer, [and] Western-backed government locked in stand-off against pro-Syrian coalition led by Hizbullah [demanding] veto-wielding share of cabinet. Though fighting in north pits a widely disparaged Sunni Muslim group against a national army.,. many Lebanese view clash through prism of this wider political contest. [O]fficials charge Syria is sowing such strife to regain its power-broking role [or] block [UNSC-involved] tribunal to try suspects in a string of political murders[, but] adamantly denies any link. [M]ost of Lebanon's Palestinian camps [long] controlled by Syrian military intelligence[, which] also known to have sponsored jihadist groups - against US in Iraq. Leader of Fatah al-Islam, whose ideology close to al-Qaeda's, [was ] in Syria before surfacing in Lebanon last year. [G]roup has recruited not only among Palestinian refugees [there], but also among international jihadists... When violence erupted, Palestinian factions united with Lebanon's rival parties, including Hizbullah, in rare unanimous condemnation of Fatah al-Islam as dangerous/alien force, [although] anxiety grew over danger to civilians [and] shelling looked indiscriminate... Some [refugees] claim gunmen holding the camp hostage[, while] most Lebanese solidly back their army, and government bolstered by support from Arab League/US... Whatever outcome, fighting is also reminder that Lebanon - and rest of world - should not let country's wretched Palestinian camps continue to fester as ghettos of misery/extremism which stoke up anger across region"; Economist 02 Jun 07"Palestinians in Lebanon: A History of the Hapless"(46):-official sum:"Long the unluckiest of the lot". Highlights:-"Lebanon [has] 12 Palestinian camps [-] dense warrens of breeze-block shanties. Three were flattened in the civil war [and all] residents were made refugees twice. [Two camps were laid waste; others ravaged in] attacks by everyone... Nahr al-Bared was only camp spared in those dark times; it prospered afterwards... Lebanese army siege of radical jihadist cult [there] has left at least 80 dead... One ingredient [for violence] is despair of Lebanon's 420,000 Palestinians. Not only has hope of returning to Palestine faded; living conditions have deteriorated too. The 4m or so UN-registered Palestinian refugees elsewhere in the diaspora - Jordan, Syria, Israeli-controlled territories - hardly been happy, but treatment in Lebanon notably harsh. Local laws give Lebanon's Palestinians a raw deal, reflecting fears assimilating them could upset [its] sectarian balance... Recent developments increase the poverty imposed[, and] UNRWA... stretched because of chaos in Gaza strip/West Bank. As one result, class sizes in schools UNRWA runs in Lebanon have soared. Troubles also slashed spending by...agencies that once...supported camps; foreign donors...diverted towards widespread destruction by Israeli bombing... Camps have grown more lawless[: initially were under PLO deal; then power vacuum in mid-80s, followed in 90s by Syrian military intelligence... Syrian withdrawal in 2005... left many camps with no effective administration[, so] grew more divided than ever[: split between Hamas-Fatah in Palestine,] exacerbated... by emergence of more extreme factions. [Y]ouths turned to pan-Islamist fervour. Many naturally turned to Nahr al-Bared [-] just outside Tripoli,.. a hotbed of Islamist radicals. Joined by hundreds of militants, very few of them Palestinian, the radical cult Fatah al-Islam has vowed to fight here to the death"; Economist 16 Jun 07"Air Travel: Trouble in the Control Tower"(Edit.14):-official sum:"It would be surprisingly easy for governments to make flying more enjoyable and cleaner"; "Special Report on Air Travel: Fear of Flying"(1-20):-initial sum:"Air travel is often nasty, brutish, long and unprofitable. But it need not be like that, says Paul Markillie". While both conclude on how/why airlines should become more competitive, following highlights stress 3"global" airline-related issues: terrorism, climate change, pandemics. They exist/grow because: "In 2006 people took over 2 billion journeys on scheduled airlines worldwide, 4% up on 2005 according to [UN's] International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)... By 2010 another 500m... likely to join[,greatest markets being Asia and Europe]. Terrorism: "Watch That Twitch"(SR 14):-official sum:"How airport security identifies suspicious characters". Highlights:"Intelligence to prevent attacks is part of what experts call'layered' security approach [since 11 Sep 01 crises]. Other layers include checking identities, scanning people and their luggage, searching them at random, see how they behave... Eventually analysis/interpretation of passengers' behaviour will be aided by machines... New biometric passports, which contain details such a finger prints and iris scans, will also improve identification. [As] threats change, will take a combination of S&T... to reduce the hassle involved in passing through airports. That may make them safer, too". Climate Change: "Travelling Green Tonight"(SR 16-9):-Highlights:"Every new aircraft improves on the generation before it, thanks to a combination of new engines, better materials and more efficient flight systems/aerodynamics... Incremental improvements add up[:] even a 1% saving can represent hundreds of tonnes of fuel/year, and a similar reduction in emissions... Every tonne of fuel burnt by a jet aeroplane produces 3.2 tonnes of carbon dioxide(CO2) [and] aviation is responsible for some 2-3% of total man-made CO2 emissions... This figure is expected to rise rapidly[:] CO2 emissions from aircraft could more than triple by 2050, making flying one of the fastest-growing producers of greenhouse gas... Other emissions by aircraft -such as nitrogen oxides(NOX), soot, water vapour- might double the warming effects of the CO2... ICAO has drawn up guidelines for a global emissions-trading scheme which are due to be considered later 2007. [Yet] aircraft have already become a lot more efficient/cleaner... Flying given passengers/distance takes less than 70% of the fuel it would have done 40 years ago... Most obvious difference is that [jet engines] have become bigger to accomodate larger fans. These move a larger volume of air more slowly but more efficiently/less noisily [and] also produce a lot less smoke/soot. [One engine] produces 40% less NOX than previous engines... New designs... could provide a huge fuel saving, perhaps 15%. Alternative fuels [include] biofuels blended with jet fuel. Fuel cells[, while] still long way from growing up into airliner[, can sooner be used for non-flight power]... Around 15-20% of fuel savings [by 2020]would come from new engines and a similar amount from new aircraft designs. Remaining 10-15% would be achieved by operating aircraft in a more economical way". "Climate Change: Emissionary Positions"(38):-this article describes the changed/changing views of US Congress and White House. Complex differences MAY affect/effect basic transportation policies. "The World Health Organization: Preventing Pandemics"(67-8):-is separately flagged for report on "new powers vested in [WHO to] cut the risk of killer diseases raging round the world". While subject is a serious one already, the article makes only indirect/brief references to the fact that huge scale/speed of global aviation now is what makes pandemics a massive and rapid threat; Economist 23 Jun 07"The Arab Predicament: Martyrs or Traitors"(Edit.15)[official sum after each title]"A choice the West must be careful not to force on the people of the Middle East";"The Palestinians: June Amazed Them"(30-2):"From now on, the Palestinians are not themselves"; "Reactions in the Region and Beyond: Emotions Not Politics"(32):"The Palestinians' chances of avoiding the worst depend partly on others"; [plus in previous issue 16 Jun 07:]"Palestine and Israel: As Bleak As It Gets"(16-8):"A civil war among Palestinians is bad for the Israelis too";"The Palestinians: War Between Brothers"(53):"The Palestinians' two main groups are on the verge of a struggle that could split the two parts of a putative Palestinian state in half":-Editorial's highlights:-"[S]cenes from Gaza have shocked Arabs far beyond Palestine... In one brutal week Hamas's swift destruction of Arafat's Fatah movement in Gaza summed up a change that is spreading across a broad swathe of Mideast. Secular nationalism... is coming to look like the weak force and radical Islam like the strong force. This poses huge danger... Western policy in danger of strengthening the wrong side by making Islamists looks like martyrs and secularists like traitors. [US President Bush's]hope is that if Gaza fails under Hamas while the West Bank prospers under Fatah, Palestinian opinion will eventually swing back behind the moderates. Can such a plan possibly work? [A]ssumption of many Muslims that a pro-US leader must in some way be a traitor to the cause extends beyond the Arab world[, while] US's allies cannot stop the martyrs from calling them traitors. US has made itself deeply unpopular in the Islamic world by invading Iraq and standing by Israel. This is bound to taint any Muslim leader who looks as if he owes his position to US military/economic power. But guilt by association is only half of reason for the growing popularity of the martyrs and the spreading idea that US's allies must be traitors. Other half is that, by comparison with traitors, martyrs look clean[:] Hamas in Palestine, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt/Jordan have earned reputation for both honesty and efficiency[, and often] health/social services... Martyrs have another selling point[: Hizbullah and Hamas] are still 'resisting' Israel. [I]t is not enough for Israel and US to release the economic help withheld from Palestinians when Hamas was still formally in charge[:] principal grievance [is] Israel's occupation of West Bank as well as Gaza... US must now prove moderate Arab allies, far from being traitors, can actually deliver desirable results. In case of Palestine, [Fatah must] govern cleanly and get Israel to start dismantling outposts and leaving West Bank"; Economist 23 Jun 07"A Counter-Insurgency in Trouble: Fatal Errors in Afghanistan"(Edit.17-8); "Western Forces in Afghanistan: Unfriendly Fire"(51):-Editorial's sum:"Too few soldiers and too much bombing from the air is damaging the US-led campaign". Highlights:"Afghan civilian deaths caused by Western forces as dangerous as most callous of Taliban suicide-bombs. [Operation] was never going to be easy. [According to the famous "Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror(Wshdc: Brassey's Inc. 04), it was initiated by Wshdc in Oct 01 without reflecting the enormous knowledge accumulated by the intense US help to Afghans when occupied by USSR in 1979-89. Chapter 2.:"An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The United States in Afghanistan"(21-58).] But allies hobbled themselves by creating two separate forces - both dominated/led by US generals - that at times work at cross-purposes. One is International Security Assistance Force(ISAF), NATO-led operation that does peacekeeping, stabilisation and, for some contingents in south, counter-insurgency against Taliban. Combined Joint Task Force 82, consists of special force/elite infantry who hunt Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders under US's Operation Enduring Freedom(OEF). Two are supposed to coordinate their activity. Both groups have killed civilians, but [worst] are responsibility of OEF[see":Unfriendly"]. ISAF commanders complain... OEF troops often operate in their areas and undermine their work. [E]verybody suffers consequences of mistakes[:] anti-Western riots have started to break out [and President Karzai] complained civilian deaths/arbitrary searches of homes had reached unacceptable level. [Yet] 'mistakes' go on. [Since] foe hides among civilians,.. no amount of care will eliminate deaths of innocents. But West must do better, or risk losing support/[worse]... Having two separate forces makes little military sense. Many NATO... do not want to be too closely associated with US aggressive tactics [while] US reluctant to place its warriors too firmly under control of wishy-washy Europeans. Neither side wholly wrong. [F]orces should be merged, but if proves impossible, should be made clear ISAF has primacy, and oversight over OEF action. More important, aim of military operations should be to protect civilian population and win its trust, not to kill as many insurgents as possible... Unity of effort requires much more than rejigging command structures; it is about managing complexity of nation-building. Problem is not just strength of Taliban, but also weakness of Afghan government, and disillusion with corruption and slow reconstruction. [Above all,] Western and Afghan forces too thinly stretched [; and r]educing Afghan deaths will require... putting more Western soldiers in harm's way"; Economist 30 Jun 07"United States Power: Still No.1"(Edit.11-2); "Briefing: US Power: The Hobbled Hegemon"(29-32):-Editorial's official sum:"Wounded, tetchy and less effective than it should be, US is still the power that counts". Briefing's official sum:"Its troubles in Iraq have much weakened it; but US is likely to remain the dominant superpower". Inevitably very selective highlights from the substantial/complex Editorial: "[F]or a growing [US] number, superpower's inability to impose its will on [Iraq] is symptomatic of a deeper malaise... Nearly six years after 11 Sep 01, nervousness about state of US's 'hard power' is growing [refs. made to Briefing, then to the huge US army weight of Iraq and Afghanistan]. Other demons are jangling US nerves [China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Europe, Arabs, Chavez]. Nor is it just a matter of geopolitics [Wall Street, borders, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo Bay, climate change, Palestinians]. A sense of waning power is not just bad for US self-esteem. It is already having dangerous consequences ['China-bashing', isolationism]. Outside US, consequences could be even graver [Islamic revolutionaries, Putin, Western alliance]. Yet US being underestimated. Friends and enemies have mistaken short-term failure of Bush admin for deeper weakness. Neither US hard nor soft power fading. Rather, not being used as well as could be. The opportunity is greater than the threat. [But] while [US] talk was loud, the stick was spindly. [I]t is hard to imagine any future US admins making such [Bush regime] howlers when it comes to regime change. Yet in one way Bush is unfairly maligned... US did not enjoy untrammelled influence abroad before he arrived [Vietnam, Iran, North Korea, France]. [Superpower's relative]strength lies as much in what it can prevent... as in what it can achieve. Even today, US's 'negative power' is considerable [Iran, North Korea, global warming, Arab-Israeli peace] - US is quite simply indispensable [since] still has the most hard power... Better diplomacy would enhance its power [- and] al-Qaeda is still small beer. [W]in the battle for hearts and minds and you do not need as much hard power to get your way. [This applies to China. US is] an undervalued market leader, in need of new management... More than any rival, US corrects itself... Bush has already rediscovered some of the charms of multilateralism; he is talking about climate change[; and] a Mideast peace initiative is possible. [E]lection offers a chance for renewal[, and US] will bounce back stronger again"; Economist 07 Jul 07"Lebanon: From Crisis To Crisis"(47-8):-official sum:"Echoes of civil war as the country slides towards political deadlock". Highlights:"War with Israel [in 2006] left 1,200 dead and thousands more homeless. [Since then, a political split] widened into a seemingly unbridgeable chasm, crippling a state struggling to manage reconstruction, $33b foreign debt, presidential election, continued series of assassinations. Meanwhile, siege of jihadist guerrillas holed up in Palestinian camp has killed more than 160 and uprooted 30,000 refugees, [plus] a roadside bomb hit UN peacekeepers, killing six. [L]ikely links between all these events[:] ruling majority... accuses Syria of having a hand in most troubles[, while] Syria's friends - Shia party-cum-militia Hizbullah - [blame] Israel/US/Sunni powers... More neutral observers agree that while Syria may indeed be fighting a covert struggle to defend its soft underbelly, unlikely to control any but a few of varied groups seeking to undermine Lebanese government... Outside meddling certainly plays a part in Lebanon's troubles. But much trouble stems from internal causes. Sectarian fragmentation that makes Lebanon the Arab world's most tolerant society also tends to generate scrappy, paranoid politics. [N]eed to resolve political crimes, reform electoral laws and contain jihadist groups are subsumed within struggles over turf and spoils... Talk in recent weeks among the opposition of setting up a parallel government of its own seems to have jolted consciences as well as sad memories [of Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war]"; Economist 14 Jul 07"Briefing: Internet Jihad: A World Wide Web of Terror"(28-30):- "[C]apability of the internet to promote terrorism is worrying intelligence agencies. Past technological innovations...have quickly been exploited by terrorists. But the information revolution is particularly useful to them. Encrypted communications, whether in e-mail or voice-over-internet audio, make it much harder for investigators to monitor their activity... More important, internet gives jihadists an ideal vehicle for propaganda, providing access to large audiences free of government censorship or media filters, while carefully preserving their anonymity. Its ability to connect disparate jihadi groups creates a sense of a global Islamic movement fighting to defend the global ummah, or community, from a common enemy. It provides a low-risk means of taking part in jihad for sympathisers across the world... Al-Qaeda now sends out regular 'news bulletins' with a masked man in a studio recounting events from the many fronts of jihad [Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Palestine]... Battlefield footage [appears] on the internet within minutes of attacks taking place[, some] with musical soundtracks. [T]he hand-held video camera has become as important a tool of insurgency as the AK-47 or the RPG rocket-launcher... Internet's decentralised structure... now gives jihadi networks tremendous resilience. Number of extremist websites increasing exponentially, from a handful in 2000 to several thousand today. Some are overtly militant, while others give jihad second place to promoting a puritanical brand of piety. [M]ost headline-grabbing material... is military manuals - giving instruction on a myriad of subjects, not least weapons/assassination/poisons/explosives. [I]nternet-based compilations... make it easier for self-starting groups around world to try their hand at terrorism. [I]n password-protected areas[,] participants can be gradually groomed... But very anonymity that internet affords jihadists can also work against them[:] police/intelligence agencies enter jihadists' without being identified... Contributors to jihadi web sites regularly told not to divulge secrets... For many who study jihadi websites, [big] danger is indoctrination... At least 60% of material...deals not with current events or with war videos, but instead ideological/ cultural questions. Jihadists... fighting less a war against West than 'a civil war for the minds of Muslim youth'... A key text is ever-expanding e-book, 'Questions and Uncertainties Concerning the Mujahideen and their Operations', which seeks to arm jihadists with responses to questions and doubts about their actions, ranging from admissibility of killing Muslims, use of weapons of mass destruction and acceptability of shaving one's beard for the sake of jihad... What is needed is a systematic campaign of counter-propaganda, not least in support of friendly Muslim governments and moderate Muslims, to try to reclaim the ground ceded to the jihadists"; Economist 21 Jul 07"Turkey's Election: Of Mullahs and Majors"(Edit.13-4); "Briefing: Turkey's Election: A Battle for the Future"(25-8):-Briefing's official sum:"The importance of this... election goes well beyond Turkey itself". Editorial's highlights:"General election is momentous not just for the country and region but for the cause of democracy in the Muslim world. It was called early by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, PM and leader of ruling Justice and Development(AK) Party... Opposition harps on AK's Islamist roots and claimed election a fight between secularism and political Islam. In reality, it [was] over the future of Turkish democracy. AK Party [won]. The government has been a success[:] stable and relatively clean. [I]t has tamed inflation, seen economic growth of around 7% a year and lured in record foreign investment [see Briefing. A]lso has modernised constitution[,] shaken up judiciary[,] nudged army towards civilian control... AK has taken tentative steps to improve treatment of minorities, especially Turkey's 14m Kurds, although fighting against guerrillas of Kurdistan Workers Party(PKK) has flared up anew... These successes were crowned by negotiations for membership of EU. [While these] have run into roadblocks on both sides, [m]ost people in AK have become more like European-style Christian Democrats[;] no longer a huge threat to secularism. [W]ould be wise for Erdogan to reach out to his opponents, above all over presidency... Turkey faces two big foreign problems. First, what to do about PKK fighters in northern Iraq. Turkey has troops in the area now but a big invasion would be disastrous. Best bet is to persuade US/political leaders of northern Iraq to disarm PKK terrorists themselves, and to keep talking to modern Kurds... Second, how to keep door to EU ajar. [G]esture towards legitimacy of Cypriot government would help. But best policy is one of patience. Turkey should quietly continue to make the reforms needed for full membership"; Economist 28 Jul 07"Islam and Democracy: The Lesson From Turkey"(Edit.13):-official sum: "Islamist parties that follow the rules should be allowed to win elections". Highlights:"Decisive victory by [AK] shows every sign so far of having been an excellent result. [It] could have been a recipe for trouble, coups, internal strife[; b]ut in fact [was] a thoroughly democratic election, not too much violence, a big turnout and a clear result [see "Elections in Turkey: The Burden of Victory"(51-2), with official sum:"The ruling AK party has won resoundingly, but it needs to act cautiously"]. [T]his seems strong rebuke by voters to the army, which had hinted at interfering in AK's choice of presidential candidate [-] most do not feel it should intervene in politics. Also rewarding government... and punishing oppositions'... incoherent/unconvincing policies. Exactly how democracy should work... Is there a lesson in Turkey for the future of democracy in wider Muslim world? Yes, but approach with care... Turkey has an exceptional history[:] autocratic rule of a moderniser pushed Islam ruthlessly to the margins; then waited better half of a century for emergence of Islamist party that looks mild and moderate enough to be trusted. [T]rouble with this approach is that things can go calamitously wrong both at squeezing-out stage [experience of Iran described]and at letting-in stage [experience of Algeria described]. Recep Tayyip Erdogan ...as PM... got the gist of what democracy really means. There is now no serious doubt that AK would surrender power if it were to be defeated at the ballot box... [R]eal and arguably stronger discipline on AK arises from the experience of democracy itself[:] continuing political success and underlying legitimacy depend on listening closely to the desires of voters, which in turn requires it to moderate its Islamist ambitions and obey the rules of the democratic game... Islamic parties [elsewhere who] declare themselves willing to abide by the rules ought to be allowed to participate fully in electoral politics"; Christopher Hitchens God Is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything(Toronto:McClelland & Stewart 07):-while the basic aim here is to specifically criticize the beliefs and activities of all major religions, the widely-travelled, -researched, and -admired author deeply reports on the religious origin of instability in all parts of world. From official sum:"With his unique brand of erudition and wit, [he] addresses the most urgent issue of today: the malignant force of religion in the world". Chapter titles: (1)Putting It Mildly; (2)Religion Kills; (3)A Short Digression on the Pig or, Why Heaven Hates Him; (4)A Note on Health, to Which Religion Can Be Hazardous; (5)The Metaphysical Claims of Religion Are False; (6)Arguments from Design; (7)Revelation: The Nightmare of the"Old"Testament; (8)The"New"Testament Exceeds the Evil of the"Old"One; (9) The Koran Is Borrowed from Both Jewish and Christian Myths; (10)The Tawdriness of the Miraculous and the Decline of Hell; (11)"The Lowly Stamp of Their Origin"; Religion's Corrupt Beginnings; (12)A Coda: How Religions End; (13)Does Religion Make People Behave Better?; (14)There Is No"Eastern" Solution; (15)Religion as an Original Sin; (16)Is Religion Child Abuse?; (17)An Objection Anticipated: The Last-Ditch"Case"Against Secularism; (18)A Finer Tradition: The Resistance of the Rational; (19)In Conclusion: The Need for a New Enlightenment; William Langewiesche The Atomic Bazaar: The Rise of the Nuclear Poor(New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux 07):-this useful but selective description of nuclear weapons distributions and prospects is very easy for non-specialists to read. It does not attempt to analyse in detail all likely nuclear threats of the world this century, but offers three analyses carefully. First is the way in which nuclear weapons explode and the ways in which the key materials can be obtained/ created. According to the book, "For ordinary fission bombs, there are really only two choices - either plutonium or highly enriched uranium. Plutonium is a man-made element produced by uranium reactors, from which it emerges initially mixed in with the other radioactive waste, but is separable through chemical processes... The alternative is highly enriched uranium, or HEU, containing more than 90% of the fissionable isotope, U-235"(21-2). Second subject analysed is danger of inadequately-secure Cold War assets falling into hands of terrorists: "US government reacted rapidly to a perception of chaos and opportunity in post-Soviet nuclear affairs and in 1993 launched an ambitious complex of 'cooperative' programs with all the former Soviet states to lessen the chance that nuclear weapons might end up in the wrong hands"(28). Third analysis is "the story of Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist at the forefront of nuclear development and trade in the Middle East, who masterminded the theft and sale of centrifuge designs that helped to build Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and who single-handedly peddled nuclear plans to North Korea, Iran and other countries potentially hostile to Western interests"(from dust-cover sum); Nayan Chanda Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization(New Haven: Yale Univ Press 07):-this fascinating survey of the development of globalization since 6000BCE is valuable as a unique reminder - to specialists in history, politics, economics, religion, movement, technology, science, etc - of how their own knowledge relates to other specialized information, and to the present/future of the intense/expanding relations across this planet. (This aim corresponds exactly with my purpose in this information source.) Style is amusing, and novel in all areas but one's expertise, so it is delicious/constructive in all unstudied fields and hence globally constructive. Final para offers view that fits closely with that in Christopher Spencer Oct 06(op.cit.):"We benefit from all that the world has to offer, but we think only in narrow terms of protecting the land and people within our national borders - the borders that have been established only in the modern era. [All that separates us] from the rest of the world... cannot change the fact that we are bound together through the invisible filament of history. [W]e know how we have reached where we are and where we may be headed. We are in a position to know that the sum of human desires, aspirations, and fears that have woven our fates together can neither be disentangled nor reeled back. But neither are we capable of accurately gauging how this elemental mix will shape our planet's future. Still, compared to the past... we are better equipped to look over the horizon at both the dangers and the opportunities ...There is no alternative to rising above our tribal interests: over the centuries to come, our destinies will remain inextricably bound together. [W]e can attempt to nudge our rapidly integrating world toward a more harmonious course - because we are all connected"; The Economist 01 Sep 07"Mosques in the West: Islam, the American Way"(Edit.10); "The Politics of Mosque-Building: Constructing Conflict"(53-5):-Edit's official sum:"Why US fairer to Muslims than 'Eurabia'". Highlights:"[S]omething similar about [mosque-related] vignettes of inter-faith politics in the Western world. All illustrate the strong emotions, and opportunistic electoral games, surfacing many countries as Muslim minorities increasingly prosperous/confident, aspire more mosques/ other communal buildings. All show way in which whipped-up fears of a 'clash of civilisations' can inflame humdrum politics of a locality. But there is a big transatlantic difference in way such disputes are handled". Major item then pressed. However both follow usual/unfair policy of comparing a large number of European states against a single North American one, pity when Canada's particular "multicultural" policy is unusually relevant to issue here discussed.] "Although US plenty of Islam-bashers ready to play on people's fears, it offers better protection to mosque builders. In particular, its constitution/legal system/political culture all generally take side of religious liberty... More important than... law ethos leans in favour of religious [who] 'new' (to their neighbours) and simply want to practise their faith in a way harms nobody... European Convention on Human Rights, and court that enforces, also protect religious freedom. But not central to European politics... Legal principles aside, there are pragmatic reasons for favouring US [and Canadian?] way. Most mosques in Western world pose no threat to non-Muslim citizens; but a few do pose such a danger, because of hatred preached in them. In such cases police generally have legal armoury need to step in and make arrests if necessary. Quashing extremism surely easier where founding/running mosques open/transparent business. .. Christians in West long complained about how hard for their brethren in Muslim lands to build churches... But they should practise what they preach". "Briefing: Capital Punishment in US: Revenge Begins To Seem Less Sweet"(20-2): much more critical of US legal/political system"; The Economist 01 Sep 07"Egypt: Bashing the Muslim Brothers"(38-44):-official sum:"Egypt‛s rulers are giving their Islamist compatriots an even worse time than usual". Highlights:"Muslim Brotherhood... now proclaims belief in freedom, democracy and rule of law... Their enthusiasm for violent jihad and constant framing of Islam as a faith threatened by vicious enemies helped spawn more radical Islamist groups... [Egypt's] president, Hosni Mubarak, recently chided Brothers for 'hiding behind religion to turn back the clock'[, and] past few months resulted in some 600 arrests... Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights, a secular-leaning lobby, details some 567 cases of police torture in past 14 years, of which 167 led to death,[and] concluded torture is practised systematically in every place of detention in every part of Egypt... [It] is one of the world's most heavily policed countries. Its 75m enjoy relative freedom from crime. But recent years have seen growing public discomfort with the force... widely seen... squashing dissent. So current campaign against Brotherhood, officially outlawed despite having won a fifth of seats in last parliamentary elections as independents, has brought the group widespread sympathy. [P]unishment has several causes. Many cite the erosion of pressure for democratic reform from US... More immediately pressing, however, [is] Brotherhood's declared intention to challenge a recently imposed constitutional ban on religiously based political parties, by issuing a full-fledged legislative platform. [Suggests] group wants to capitalise not only on Egypt's strong and growing religious conservatism but also on public anger at government's perceived indifference to the country's myriad social ills"; Economist 15 Sep 07"Pakistan: The Wrong Direction" (Edit.14); "Briefing: Pakistan: Home And Away"(31-3):-Edit's official sum:"Why US should push General Musharraf harder towards democracy". Highlights:"It seems odd to claim that [Nawaz Sharif, an appalling PM 1990-93, and 1997-99 when overthrown by Musharraf,] is crucial to Pakistan democratic future [-] nevertheless true. Sharif represents something without which democracy cannot thrive - a real political movement with popular support. By expelling him.,. Musharraf has demonstrated is not serious about restoring democracy... Whether Pakistan moves back to democracy, or is condemned to authoritarianism, is of great interest to... the rest of the world... Musharraf in some ways been impressive leader: managed to stay in power/hold politicians at bay for 8 years. Technically, he restored democracy in 02, but has rigged elections [and] ignored Supreme Court ruling that he should allow Sharif back. [G]rowing majority of Pakistanis want him out but, by persuading US that holding line against Islamist extremists[, been helped to] hang on to power. Yet its getting difficult for general. [Briefing offers major report on complex/serious human region]. Presidential election is due next months; parliamentary one by Jan 08. He may explore [state of emergency]; or may try to do a deal with Benazir Bhutto, the only other political leader, who is demanding immunity from prosecution, [right to seek] third PM term, curbing of president's powers, and establishment of a caretaker government. [S]uch a cosy arrangement... depends on its terms. [I]nsisting Musharraf take off his uniform if he wants to be president would be worth doing. But a deal that divides power, general/Bhutto, and deprives Pakistanis of determining own future, would not... A stable Pakistan is crucial to regional peace and to securing the world against terrorism. But only way to discourage Islamist extremism in Pakistan is through democracy"; Economist 15 Sep 07 "Terrorism: Visions of Osama Bin Laden"(73-4):-official sum:"Al-Qaeda's leader returns and foresees victory in Iraq". Highlights:"Osama bin Laden has returned from the wilderness to cast his curse against the evildoers. US, he predicts, will fall in Iraq... Capitalism and democracy are worst forms of 'polytheism', causing war, global warming, poverty and costly mortgages. Solution to such wickedness is for US to 'embrace Islam'. Then war would end and US would be richer, because Islam... has no income taxes except 2.5% title known as zakat. Call to convert is no rhetorical flourish: Islamic jurisprudence requires that non-believers be given a chance before attacked. [I]ntelligence will search... for clues about intentions... and state of health... Bin Laden's return... was his first video appearance since 04 [and] coincides with a resurgence of his movement... Al-Qaeda and its offshoots have regrouped, replaced lost commanders and built up a stronger following around the world. [L]atest reminders of violent jihadism [were] inspired, if not directed, by al-Qaeda. Experts debate whether al-Qaeda is as dangerous, or more so, as in 01. [Many say] it has recreated a safe haven in Pakistan's lawless tribal belt, alongside its strengthened Taliban allies. [For Pakistani involvement with Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda see:"Briefing: Pakistan: Home And Away"(31-3) and particularly mid-section of Brief which reports: "Poll found that 46% of Pakistanis approve of al-Qaeda's chief, against 38% for their president".] Al-Qaeda's ideology, if not the movement itself, has become more globalised [and] underlines concern about home-grown terrorism across Europe. Much of al-Qaeda's propaganda, as well as its military training manuals, are spread through a large network of jihadist websites. Muslims anywhere can become radicalised and join the fights, with little or no involvement from al-Qaeda's leaders. [S]ome converts to Islam appear to be particularly prone to extremism... Though training is much easier abroad, home-grown cells may need no direction from overseas and can act faster, making it harder to detect them... Al-Qaeda has experienced some broader setbacks, however, notably in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, where violent jihadist campaigns have been largely squashed... Still, Iraq is stoking the cause[ and,] like Afghanistan after Soviet defeat, Iraq too will start exporting hardened terrorists". For relevant material on situation in Iraq - with official sums - see: "The Iraq War: Why They Should Stay"(13):-"For all General Petraeus's spin, Iraq is still a violent mess. That is why US should not leave yet"; "US and Iraq: The General Speaks"(37-8):-"David Petraeus says Iraq is improving and some 30,000 US troops can come home by next summer. Congress wants more"; "Iraq: How Fast Do the Iraqis Want US to Get Out?"(57):-"While US argues over how and when to bring their boys home, the Iraqis have their own equally mixed views"; Economist 22 Sep 07"Civil Liberties Under Threat: The Real Price of Freedom"(Edit.17-8); "Terrorism and Civil Liberty: Is Torture Ever Justified?"(71-2):-Edit's official sum:"It is not only on the battlefield where preserving liberty may have to cost many lives". Highlights:"[P]ast six years have seen a steady erosion of civil liberties even in countries that regard themselves as liberty's champions[:] arbitrary arrest, indefinite detention without trial, 'rendition', suspension of habeas corpus, even torture... Governments argue [t]hey face a murderous new enemy who lurks in the shadows, will stop at nothing, seeks chemical/biological/nuclear weapons. This renders old rules and freedoms out of date. [G]reat force in this argument [- and it's]how governments through the ages have justified grabbing repressive new powers... There are those who see the fight against al-Qaeda as a war... A hot, total war like WWII could not last for decades, so curtailment of domestic liberties was shortlived. But as nobody knew whether cold war would ever end,.. democracies chose...not to let it change their sort of societies... This was a wide choice [for freedom] but also because West's freedoms became one of most potent weapons in struggle... If war against terrorism is a war at all, it is like the cold war - will last for decades. Although a real threat exists, to let security trump liberty... would corrode civilised world's sense of what it is/wants to be... Accept that letting police spy on citizens/detain them without trial/use torture to extract information makes it easier to foil terrorist plots... But with one hand tied behind their backs is precisely how democracies ought to fight terrorism... In the real world, police seldom sure whether the many suspects they want to torture know of any plot... Logic of ['ticking bomb'] is licensed in the name of the greater good to trample on the hard-won rights of any one/therefore all, citizens. Human rights are part of what it means to be civilised. Locking up suspected terrorists... before they commit crimes would probably make society safer... Dropping such practises in order to preserve freedom may cost many lives. So be it"; Economist 29 Sep 07"Lebanon: Who's For President?"(48-9):-official sum:"Finding a new head of state may not stem the slide back towards bloody chaos". Highlights:"Lebanon's...plot is still getting thicker... On 19 Sep, car exploded in Beirut, killing MoP from ruling majority and four others [-] 11th prominent opponent of Syria to be so targeted... Not a single culprit has been caught so far. On 25 Sep, parliament, which has in effect been suspended since its speaker joined an opposition boycott of it last Dec, reconvened at last. [It] must elect new president before the term of widely disparaged/doggedly pro-Syrian incumbent expires 24 Nov. [But] too few showed up to have vote [and] speaker adjourned until end Oct... Ruling coalition, Sunni-Druze-Christian grouping, backed by West/Saudi Arabia, said may now elect president merely with simple majority. Opposition, which groups Shia Hizbullah/disgruntled Christians, backed by Syria/Iran, has declared such move illegal. 'Declaration of war' said former general Aoun, who believes his tactical alliance with Shia bolsters his own credentials for post. [S]uch talk is not taken lightly. Lebanon's internal schism mirrors the polarisation of wider region. It pits those who retain some faith in West/would seek accomodation with Israel, against who demonise US and dream of liberating Jerusalem. [For a deep issue against Israeli policy, see "Israel: The Land of Zion"(49):-extracts:"Jewish National Fund(JNF) was set up to buy land in Palestine for settling Jews there... Now fund is fuelling the tension inherent in Israel's desire to be both Jewish state and democracy... JNF owns nearly 2,600sqkm, 13% of Israel's land, and its covenant states the land can be leased only to Jews... Critics counter that at least half fund's lands... were seized by the state after their Palestinian owners fled in 48... At time when anti-Israel campaigners are seizing on chances to compare Israel with apartheid South Africa, has troubled some Jews".] Events, such as invasion of Iraq, war with Israel,..serial murders in Beirut, have fortified [Lebanese] convictions... Intensity of passions has grown, fears one diplomat, to where another assassination or big event further afield, such as military attack on Iran, could reignite civil war. [Yet] outcome not necessarily catastrophic... Amid meetings between leaders of opposing factions, talk of reaching a compromise over presidency grew louder. [No] effective president can afford to alienate Shias, who make up third of Lebanon's people. In any case, factional struggle will continue, no matter who occupies presidency. Several compromise candidates have been tabled... Most Lebanese at least agree almost anyone would be better than Lahoud"; Economist 29 Sep 07"Civil Liberties: Surveillance and Privacy: Learning to Live With Big Brother"(62-4):-official sum:"[L]ooks at the new technologies for collecting personal information, and the dangers of abuse". Highlights:"[S]marter technology... that has been designed to fight 21st century war is being used in the fight against crime [-] police are experimenting with use of miniature remote-controlled drone aircraft, fitted with video cameras and infra-red night vision, to detect 'suspicious' behaviour in crowds... Most of the time, convenience of electronic technology, and perceived need to fight the bad guys, seems to outweigh any worries about where it could lead. [R]adio-frequency identification (REID) microchips implanted in human beings to... keep track of old people/give employees access to high-security area... Some want everyone implanted with REIDs as answer to identify theft. [E]lectronic devices already being used to keep tabs on ordinary citizens as never before... The more data collected/stored, greater the potential for 'data mining'... to discover patterns/predict future behaviour. [On] 11 Sep 01, it became widely accepted that against deadly/globally networked enemy, every stratagem was needed [and that] processing personal information... suddenly seemed indispensable. [US] FBI could soon access 20b pieces of information, all churned/sorted/analysed to predict who might one day turn into terrorist. New version, STAR, using information drawn from both private/public databases... In age of global terror, when governments desperately trying to pre-empt future attacks, such profiling has become a favourite tool. But... inaccurate when comes to individuals [and] unreliable when sniffing out terrorist plots, which uncommon/rarely well-defined profile. [M]istakes are rife... Another worry: information on people used to be gathered selectively.,. now indiscriminately. [C]ameras less important issue than emergence of 'database state'[:] personal records of citizens encoded/too easily accessible. DNA also increasingly popular tool to help detect terrorists/solve crime. [P]roposed best way to prevent discrimination is to include whole population in DNA database... But DNA less reliable as a crime detection tool than most people think... More disturbing for most [US citizens] are greatly expanded powers government has given itself over 6 years to spy on [them]. [After legal debate,] ordinary will continue to be spied on without need for warrants - now legal. [In Britain, seems] to worry people[:] sheer volume of information now being kept on them and degree to which accessible to an ever wider group of individuals/agencies... Most democratic countries now have comprehensive data-protection and/or privacy laws[:] strict rules for collection/storage/use of personal data. Intelligence agencies... usually exempt [and] no data ever really secure. [E]rosion of individual privacy has accelerated enormously since [01] but security say many terrorist plots foiled and lives saved. Privacy is a modern 'right' [though] few outside civil-liberties community seem really worried about its loss now [and] the potential for abuse is huge and the safeguards paltry"; Economist 06 Oct 07"Civil Liberties: Detention Without Trial: The Stuff of Nightmares"(70-1):-official sum:"Judges and parliamentarians are restraining the zeal of governments who want a free hand to fight terror". Highlights:"[US] Senate Judiciary Committee [discussing] to restore habeas corpus rights to Guantánamo detainees. Most have been held for nearly six years without charge, without access to a lawyer or any indication of when, if ever, they might be released... Guantánamo has become... reaction to the terror attacks of 11 Sep 01. In Britain, too, government has sought new powers to tackle Islamist terrorism. [I]n both, the doctrine of the balance of powers has passed a test... Freedom from arbitrary arrest and detention, coupled with the right to challenge it in an independent court... are among the civilised world's most sacred and ancient liberties... But these days, there is more talk of pre-emption and 'preventive detention', even in democracies. [I]s US's war on terror a real war in the legal sense? If not, then the detainees should be treated as ordinary criminal suspects. This is the path that most European countries have chosen. Even if it could be deemed a real war, it is clearly unlike an ordinary state conflict: it has neither a definable end nor even an identifiable enemy with whom to sue for peace. It could last for decades... US has also engaged in so-called 'extraordinary rendition' - the abduction of suspected terrorists to face not justice, but harsh interrogation, perhaps torture, in a third country... The new system [in Britain] seems as riddled with problems as the old, and almost as unfair... But no leader of a Western democracy has obtained a completely free hand in detaining people. US has seen a tug of war between the government and the courts, with many rounds... Many hope the Supreme Court will seize opportunity to give a view on whether [President] Bush's 'war on terror' is a real war. Congress, too, is beginning to show its teeth... In Britain, too, Parliament has baulked at some of the government's demands"; Economist 13 Oct 07"Civil Liberties: Freedom of Speech: The Tongue Twisters"(66-7):-official sum:"The difficulty of reconciling traditional freedoms of expression with the new demands of national security". Highlights:"In countries at war, freedoms of the press and of speech often restricted... Al-Qaeda's attacks of 11 Sep 01, by precipitating a 'war on terror', also raised questions - both legal and moral - about the role of the media in free societies. Several Western governments used national security as justification for limiting certain sorts of public information/public speech. Press itself has... sometimes refused to accept limits on its freedom of expression;.. sometimes has accepted them. If [accept] the lip service almost all countries pay to a free press - 160 UN members have ratified International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights - then freedom of expression has had a tough time... UN for first time issued statement condemning the targeting of journalists and calling for the prosecution of their killers... To some degree, the global increase in the number of journalists being killed, kidnapped and otherwise harassed may signify that more journalists at work, and growing bolder... Attacks on media, Freedom House points out, are not only bad in themselves; they are also a sign of worse to come: other democratic institutions. In repressive countries, internet has often been greeted as a wonderful way to bypass government control... For a while, relatively immune to regulation[, but] an academic think-tank says that censorship of internet has spread from just a handful of countries five years ago to 26 nations. Some... now blocking entire internet services. It is not surprising that such countries are suppressing freedom of expression... US gives greater protection to freedom of expression than any other country... Even so, a Century Foundation [man claims,] Bush's attempts 'to intimidate/punish the media, or at least to manipulate/mislead it, represents one of most concerted assaults on [constitution]"[, and] number of documents being stamped secret or classified has almost quadrupled... For many,.. administration has tilted balance too far towards maintaining'certain information...in confidence'... In Britain, freedom of expression has been under attack... It has now gone further [than US]... At first meeting of UNGA, delegates described freedom of expression as 'the touchstone of all human rights'. In practice, that freedom has never been totally unfettered... Under European Convention on Human Rights, freedom of expression is subject to a wide range of possible restrictions, including national laws banning speech likely to incite/'stir up' hatred against people... Since 01, these sorts of restrictions expanded to apply to Muslims... Free-speech critics insisted some element of intent be involved, claiming otherwise religious works... could be deemed unlawful... Sometimes the press has decided to censor itself... Attempts to gag press in democratic countries usually fail"; Economist 27 Oct 07"Armies of the Future: Brains, Not Bullets"(Edit.15); "Briefing: Fighting Insurgents: After Smart Weapons, Smart Soldiers"(33-6):-official sums:"Western armies good at destroying things. Can they be made better at building them?";"Irregular warfare may keep Western armies busy for decades. They will have to adapt if they are to overcome the odds that history suggests they are up to". Both tell what must be modified in any effective army in order to at least control insurgents that can arise anywhere. Most information relates to the West(,as does General Sir Rupert Smith The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World op cit). The issues apply to the whole world and involve more than just military action - above all cooperation(, as argued in: Christopher Spencer REASONS WHY ALL SOCIETIES ON EARTH MUST COOPERATE - IN TERMS OF BOTH THEIR WEALTH AND KNOWLEDGE - IN ORDER TO SURVIVE op cit). Editorial highlights:"Firepower is of little use, and often counter-productive, when the enemy deliberately mingles among civilians. [West] must expect to fight protracted, enervating counter-insurgency wars that offer no clear-cut victories / risk prospect of humiliation ... Counter-insurgency... is 'armed social work'. It requires more brain than brawn, more patience than aggression. Model soldier should be... intellectual for 'the graduate level of war', preferably a linguist, with a sense of history and anthropology...Post-colonial politics, stronger concerns for human rights, the rapid dispersal of news: all these (good) things make today's conflicts even harder to win for occupiers. So it may well be better to step back and work through local allies. Few insurgencies have unseated existing governments. In 'war on terror' most important al-Qaeda suspects rounded up... by locals. Strengthening local forces is best way of salvaging Iraq and Afghanistan, and may help avoid the need for future interventions. [B]uilding 'partner capacity' may need... creating new specialist units to train allies, embed Western soldiers in local forces to improve their performance/call in air [aid], and help organise civil reconstruction [and diplomacy]. [S]hift in focus from destruction to construction... is certainly worth putting more money into manpower". "Briefing" highlights: "Modern wars are complex affairs conducted 'among the people'... The greater the accuracy of modern weapons, the louder the outcry when they kill or wound civilians... Guerrillas' main weapons: agility, surprise, support of at least some sections of the population and, above all, time. [New US manual says that] in fighting an enemy 'among the people', the central objective is not to destroy the enemy but to secure allegiance of the citizenry. All strands of a campaign - military/economic/political - must be strongly entwined ...Nationalist/pan-Islamic sentiments are much stronger than in the past. Information technology has helped jihadists spread 'single narrative' that Muslims everywhere are under attack. Internet provides a new and unassailable sanctuary from which to propagandise/organise/share tactics... A growing body of opinion... has concluded that insurrections are best fought indirectly, through local allies. [F]or local governments, fighting insurgents is a matter of survival... To build viable governments... has proved difficult enough even where the fighting has stopped and the main political forces have been cooperative (or at least acquiescent)... Although most armies have now relearnt the limits of force and importance of 'comprehensive approach', other branches of government have not [foreign policy, aid agencies. US army] needs not just more soldiers - nor even linguists, civil-affairs officers, engineers - but a fully fledged corps of advisers that will train and 'embed' themselves with allied forces around the world. Insurgencies may be the face of war for West in years ahead. [E]xtremists round the world have seen US vulnerability to the rocket-propelled grenade, AK-47 and suicide-bomber"; Economist 27 Oct 07"Afghanistan's Taliban: War Without End"(50):-official sum:"Not winning, but not losing either". Highlights:"[I]nfiltration routes from Pakistan will be blocked to the Taliban [soon by snow]. NATO commanders... feel they were on the front foot during the summer. Since Jan, almost 6,000 killed - 50% increase on 06. Included 200 NATO/more than 3,000 alleged Talibs. Insurgent violence up by 20% on 06, largely because [NATO] pushed into areas formerly held by Taliban. Nonetheless, few observers doubt Afghan insurgency has years to run[:] Taliban seem to have enough recruits[;] refuge /logistical base in Pakistan lawless tribal areas[;]enough funds -40% from drug trade... NATO's role stopgap, as $billions building Afghan security forces... 20-30% of population in south support Taliban[ -]whose fighters between 6,000-20,000. Some 6,000 Taliban reported killed since 05, with no sign [this] dented capability. [Hence]will not, by itself, end insurgency. Suicide bombings[, rare until 05,] this year more than 120. Roadside bombings also increasing. NATO claims this is sign of desperation [and] focused on attacking Taliban leadership[- some success]. Locals [say] Taliban taken severe punishment in south. [M]uch talk of prising away 'moderate Taliban' through negotiation[, but] Taliban fighters now appearing in previously placid provinces [and] NATO's nearly 35,000 not enough to take and hold all parts[- and] publicly divided. Taliban, too, fragmented. Far from monolithic Islamists they were in 01, they now span various groups with differing motivations. Alongside the diehard madrassa-trained Talibs are growing numbers of foreigners with al-Qaeda links. ['T]ier-2' fighters are drawn to fight for many reasons: unemployment; illegal opium; tribal loyalties... Many Afghans in south would support any force offering real hope of security/justice. [N]either Taliban nor Afghan government/Western backers have yet made a convincing case"; Economist 10 Nov 07"Martial Law in Pakistan: Time's Up, Mr Musharraf"(Edit.13);"Briefing: Pakistan: Lawyers Against the General"(31-4):-official sums:"No longer the potential solution, the general has become a big part of Pakistan's problem"; "However Pervez Musharraf tries to justify his actions, this is a dark time for his wretched country". Editorial's highlights:"General Musharraf has... seemed, despite his embarrassing lack of democratic credentials, a relatively safe pair of hands in charge of 165m-strong moderate Islamic nation [-with] nuclear weapons and prey to frightening extremist fringe. Over years, however, [he] has squandered the goodwill he enjoyed at home and abroad. [H]is alliance with US[, and] refusal to take off army uniform [or] allow unrigged elections, alienated [wide] opinion. [H]is second coup came 03 Nov when he dismantled constitutional facade,.. imposed martial law[,] locked up [hundreds and took] private TV off air. Many want him gone[ b]ut not obvious how to force his hand without endangering stability of Pakistan itself. [Musharraf] is now a central part of Pakistan's instability... In declaring 'a state of emergency', he cited two threats:.. the spread of violent extremism and the pesky interference of the judiciary in his efforts to deal with it. [Briefing is recommended here for details.] The extremist violence has spread from the lawless tribal areas where Pakistan blurs into Afghanistan to the neighbouring parts of Pakistan proper, and beyond [Islamabad, Karachi. Other threats include] involvement of Pakistan-trained terrorists in attacks in the West[, while] the radical mullahs of the border areas people the West's worst nightmares [of] a 'Talibanised', nuclear-armed Pakistan... But martial law has so clearly pitted [Musharraf] and army against the rest of the country that, rather than gain a sharper focus, he is now likely more distracted... US and Britain are loth to do anything that might jeopardise their links with Pakistan's army and its intelligence services... Logistical support for Afghan war, undermining Taliban's rear base in the tribal areas, intelligence on planned terrorist attacks in West: all demand Pakistani cooperation. For this reason,.. threat to withdraw US aid... is difficult to use. But it should be used... Musharraf has apparently promised to hold elections by mid-Feb... Pakistan can still be dragged back from the brink. Top brass of Pakistan army[ - ]their loyalty to their boss can be assumed to be finite... It must be made plain that [US] backing is dependent on restoring democracy, through a free election open to all. Otherwise, as military dictators go, so should General Musharraf"; Economist 24 Nov 07"Africa: Promises, Promises"(Edit.15); "African Peacekeeping: The Doves of War"(52-4):-Editorial's off.sum:"It is time for both Africans and the rich world to walk the talk in Darfur and Somalia". Highlights:"Eastern Congo faces a humanitarian disaster; the killing in Sudan's Darfur region goes on apace; war rages between Islamist militias and Ethiopian troops in Somalia; rebels threaten the government in Chad; war may resume between Eritrea and Ethiopia and between Sudan's government and former rebels in autonomous south. [Edit. then recommends "...Doves of War", with off.sum:"Too many conflicts, too few decent armies to sort them out". It also briefs other peacekeeping: Burundi-Rwanda, Central African Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone.] UN is sending unprecedented numbers of troops to the region. It already has 17,000 in Congo and 20,000 more due to join existing 6,000-strong African Union (AU) force in Darfur - largest UN forces in the world. Another 2,000 between Eritreans-Ethiopians, plus 10,000 in south Sudan. AU also 1,600 Ugandan troops in Somalia... In Congo, UN is doing its best to hold the ring between several rival ragtag armies, but elsewhere its fine intentions have yet to bear fruit. In Darfur,.. imperative for UN is to provide both transport and attack helocopters for [to-be-]expanded force. [A] robust/mobile force is vital if peace is to be restored to a region where some 300,000 have already died and more than 2m are displaced. In Somalia,.. African countries have failed to deliver. AU promised a force of 8,000 to keep peace in Mogadishu, [b]ut so far only the Ugandans, too few to do the job, have turned up... and war threatens to engulf the capital again, perhaps infecting whole region. Africa/West seem to have lost hope and interest... Main foreign governments involved in negotiations... must not give up"; Philip H.Gordon"Can the War on Terror Be Won? How to Fight the Right War"Foreign Affairs Vol.86/No.6(Nov/Dec 07):-Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution, and author of Winning the Right War: The Path to Security for America and the World(Times Books 07), from which the essay is drawn, strongly criticizes Bush's anti-terror invasion of Iraq as having 'created more terrorists than it has eliminated'. Instead he argues:"Considering possible outcomes of the war on terror makes clear that it can indeed be won, but only with the recognition that this is a new and different kind of war. Victory will come not when foreign leaders accept certain terms but when political changes erode and ultimately undermine support for the ideology and strategy of those determined to destroy(sic) the US. It will come not when Wshdc and its allies kill or capture all terrorists or potential terrorists but when the ideology the terrorists espouse is discredited, when their tactics are seen to have failed, and when they come to find more promising paths to the dignity, respect, and opportunities they crave". The arguments then put forward to gradually change relevant views and situations abroad are similar in thrust to those very briefly implied in: Christopher Spencer REASONS WHY ALL SOCIETIES ON EARTH MUST...(op.cit); Economist 01 Dec 07"Lebanon: In Search of a Government"(60) [directly follows:"Who's for President?" 29 Sep 07]:-off.sum:"Even as the country's people get used to not having one". Highlights:"[F]inal day of President Emile Lahoud's term of office [was 23 Nov], and parliament bound to elect a successor... Failure to choose a new head of state, many said, could precipitate a slide into chaos and even a renewal of 1975-90 civil war... Tensions are still high, but fears of imminent strife appear to have dissipated. Lebanese have resumed business [and] country has muddled along without a legislature since last Nov... During this time divisions between ruling majority [Sunni/Druze/smaller Christian factions] and opponents [Shia/populist Christian groups] have solidified. Core dispute... concerns opposition demands for a bigger share in government[, but ]rendered more complex by influence of foreign powers [Iran/Syria/France/US/Saudi Arabia] ... Syria might push its Lebanese allies towards compromising over presidency in exchange for... attention to its claim on Golan Heights... Yet there are also important Lebanese internal dynamics at play... between its three largest sects... Most popular Maronite politician, Michel Aoun, has strong anti-Syrian credentials, but his volatile nature and alliance with Hizbullah alienate many Christians... [Yet] army commander-in-chief, Michel Suleiman, has gained respect for keeping his men above the political fray, and using them effectively to maintain security. Although many Lebanese would be relieved to see the low-key general as president, his election requires a change to constitution rules barring soldiers from civilian office"; Economist 15 Dec 07"Afghanistan and Iraq: Must They Be Wars Without End?"(Edit.13):- off.sum:"No, as recent successes show. But 'winning' will take many years, and cannot be achieved by force alone". Editorial initially raises question:"Is it possible that [the two US-led wars] are at least beginning to come good?", and draws attention to carefully relevant reports (with off.sums):"Briefing: Iraq: Can a Lull Be Turned Into a Real Peace?"(28-30):"Surge of US troops has dramatically reduced violence. But Iraq's politicians may still squander an obvious chance for reconciliation"; "Briefing: Afghanistan: Policing a Whirlwind"(31-3):"As