|
|
| by Christopher
Spencer |
Former Senior
Advisor International Organizations,
Canadian Department of
Foreign Affairs and International Trade |
| Updated: 13 SEP
08 | |
Here's a guide to the variety of good material that is being written about some very strong
political emotions in an Arab state. Lebanon is geographically small, relatively rich again after
its terrible civil war, and lived in by a wide number of (sub)religions and (recent)arrivals. Its worst
recent problems have been its two bigger neighbours: Israel and Syria. Both have militarily
occupied parts of Lebanon. Hence strong feelings. As background, you might read about US and
Islamist views generally: "Anonymous"Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on
Terror(DullesVA: Brassey's 04):-author is a senior US intelligence official with nearly 20 years
experience in national security issues related to Afghanistan and South Asia. This strong
critique of arrogant US/allies' policies towards Osama bin Laden/al Qaeda, and military action
against Afghanistan/Iraq, proved quickly influential in many respects, and advocates less US
loyalty to Israel/corrupt Muslim regimes or presence in Mideast. Motivation of Muslim terrorists
is identified not as hatred/fear of Western national systems but of their broadly negative actions
against Islamic peoples. All complex chapter titles: (1)Some Thoughts on the Power of Focused,
Principled Hatred. (2) An Unprepared and Ignorant Lunge to Defeat - The US in Afghanistan. (3)
Not Down, Not Out: Al Qaeda's Resiliency, Expansion, and Momentum. (4) The World's View of
bin Laden: A Muslim Leader and Hero Coming into Focus? (5) Bin Laden Views the World: Some
Old, Some New, and a Twist. (6) Blinding Hubris Abounding: Inflicting Defeat on Ourselves -
Non-War, Leaks, and Missionary Democracy. (7) When the Enemy Sets the Stage: How US's
Stubborn Obtuseness Aids Its Foes. (8) The Way Ahead: A Few Suggestions for Debate.
Epilogue: No Basis for Optimism. More specifically, you might read: Esther Pan et al."Q&A: Syria
and Lebanon"Council on Foreign Relations 18 Feb 05:-explosive 14 Feb 05 assassination of
recent Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri (plus many others) brought strong and widespread accusation/
movement against big neighbour Syria. The extraordinary Lebanese anti-Syrian reaction, and
excellent media reporting/analysis, of this unhappy relationship justify a study. This well-informed analysis (including interviews with local experts) has following questions answered:
What is Syria's role in Lebanon? Was Syria responsible for assassination of Rafik Hariri? How
long have Syrian troops been in Lebanon? What caused the war[bringing in Syrian troops]?
What ended the war? What impact did the Taif Accords have on the Syrian-Lebanon
relationship? What has happened in Lebanon since the war ended in 1990? What is the US
position on Syria? What has UN's attitude been toward Syria? What does [UN] Resolution 1559
say? What impact will Hariri's assassination have on the Syria-Lebanon relationship? Was
Hariri's death the main cause of anti-Syrian agitation? What role did Hariri play in the
opposition? What are the chances of another civil war if Syria pulls out? What's next on the
political agenda? Steven A.Cook"Q&A: Cook on Syria and Hariri's Assassination"Council on
Foreign Relations 22 Feb 05:-Cook, a CFR expert on Syria, says Syria must be suspected of
Hariri's assassination as Damascus has history of killing political opponents in Lebanon. He
responded inter alia along following lines: Brief run-down on relations between Syria and
Lebanon; both under French control after 1919 Versailles Conference. Under Turks the two
nations were under same jurisdiction. Who wanted Syria and Lebanon divided? At that time,
Christians were larger percentage of Lebanese population than now. Well known that Syrians
sent troops into Lebanon in 1970s to put down/take sides in a civil war. Still, with Israeli
invasions of Lebanon in 1978 and 1982, and to its own economic benefit, Syria keeps thousands
of troops/workers in Lebanon. An update of Syrian and Syrian-Lebanese events of the last few
years(Hafez al-Assad died 2000; Bashar al-Assad inherited). Lebanese constitution recently
amended under Syrian pressure to extend term of the obedient President Emile Lahoud. Syria
may be willing to talk peace with Israel but would insist on total return of Golan Heights. PM
Hariri key economic rebuilder of Lebanon, but resigned when Lahoud extended and had planned
to run on anti-Syrian policy in May. Strong anti-Syrian demonstrations after assassination, but
counter-demonstration by powerful Hezbollah. Baathists of Syrian Assads and Iraqi Hussein
were traditional rivals, but former both traditional friend of Iran and willing to permit anti-US
insurgents into Iraq. Suspicion Syria responsible for Hariri death; Hezbollah independent but
unlikely. The Economist 19 Feb 05"Lebanon: Death of a Statesman"(43):-"Hariri was, in many
ways, central pillar of post-war Lebanon. Not only did he serve as PM for 10 of past 12 years; he
invested his charm and cunning, as well as vast fortune...into rebuilding his shattered
homeland.[E]qually crucial to country's political reconstruction...Recently, his ties to Damascus
looked strained...With parliamentary elections scheduled for May, possibility of Hariri throwing
his weight behind opposition emerged as threat to Syria's ambition to retain its slipping grip.
Street opinion in Beirut blames Syria for his death...Popular anger against Syria and its stooges
has reinvigorated Lebanon's opposition. Thomas L.Friedman"When Camels Fly"New York Times
20 Feb 05:-Along with stresses on recent'people power'in Iraq, Palestinian election of Abbas,
willingness of some Egyptians to run against Mubarak,"No one should take lightly the
willingness of opposition forces in Lebanon to stand up and point finger at Syrian regime and
say 'J'accuse!' for murder of opposition leader Rafik Hariri...These are things you have not seen
in Arab world before. They are really, really unusual - like watching camels fly. Something really
is going on with proverbial'Arab street'...But we have to be very sober about what is ahead...Old
order in this part of world will not go quietly...There is still, throughout Arab world, a very weak
notion of statehood/citizenship.[S]till very few civil society institutions outside mosque, and little
experience with free press, free markets or real parliamentary democracy...Overcoming that
challenge was what Rafik Hariri... stood for[, w]hy so many people, particularly young Arabs, are
so upset by his murder.[R]ead just one editorial...in Lebanon's leading newspaper, An Nahar, by
Samir Kassir...'Today, the nationalist cause has shrunk into the single aim of getting rid of
regimes of terrorism and coups, and regaining the peoples' freedom as prelude to a new Arab
renaissance.[With Hariri funeral] Beirut was the beating heart of a new Arab nationalism...This
nationalism is based on free will of citizens, male and female. And this is what
tyrannical[Syrian]regime should fear more than anything else if it tarries about ending its
hegemony over Beirut and Lebanon'". The developing positions in both Beirut and Damascus
are covered in Reuters"Syria Indicates It May Withdraw Some Troops From Lebanon"in NYT 21
Feb 05; Hassan M.Fattah"Syria Pledges Pullout Again Amid Protests by Lebanese"NYT 22 Feb
05; Reuters"Syria Says It's Ready to Work with UN on Lebanon Pullout"in NYT 24 Feb 05.
Valuable update/analysis of situation: Joel Brinkley[& Hassan M.Fattah]"Syria Vows to Quit
Lebanon but Declines to Say When"NYT 25 Feb 05:-Syria announced 24 Feb"that would move
its military forces throughout Lebanon to Bekaa region near Syrian border and eventually out
of Lebanon altogether.'Decision to withdraw has been taken',Defense Minister...told Syrian
TV.'What remains is exact timing'." Bush/Chirac both demanded Syrian withdrawal; UNSG Annan
urged Syria to withdraw by Apr."Latest announcement likely to affect only fraction of troops. In
addition,...military ...only most visible element of Syrian control..'Syria cannot withstand this
tremendous international pressure, from US, France',said Imad Moustapha, Syrian ambassador
to US. 'We will leave Lebanon, but...not do it in disorganized way. What our enemies really want
is...immediate withdrawal...humiliating for Syria... We do not interfere in Lebanese elections,...but
we do use our influence to form our own party lists,' which dominate Lebanese Parliament. That,
he said, is not likely to change...Up to 600,000 Syrians work in Lebanon, filling menial
roles...Money they send home critical for Syrian economy...Syrian businessmen... borrow/invest
in Lebanese banks...[US]Congress Research Service:...'Lebanese economy vital to Syria's own
economic health'." Steven Cook,CFR:"'Clear that over...last 15 years, Syria has used Lebanon
as its outlet to rest of world, as its economic lifeboat'...Syria richly rewarded politicians who
remained loyal and threatened others...Three-member UN team to investigate
assassination...arrived in Beirut...Syrian government officials and allies in Damascus insisting
Syria get some form of guarantee in exchange for a withdrawal...Many officials...see withdrawing
from Lebanon as tantamount to capitulation, a move sure to bring about fall of President Assad
and those about him...Biggest risk now that Syria may panic, making already bad situation
worse.[H]ead of Syrian Press[:'T]here's new world out there and new reality'." Susanne Koelbl"A
101 Course in Mideast Dictatorships" Der Spiegel via NYT 21 Feb 05:-excellent and in-depth
description of origin and current status of the Syrian dictatorship. Text is particularly
strengthened through interviews with influential and/or representative Syrians in Damascus.
Economist 26 Feb 05 "Lebanon: Time For Syria To Go"(Edit.10):-useful summary of
complex/ironic relationship between little, peeled-off Lebanon and traditional but hence sea-less
Syria followed by valid concern about a serious non-bilateral issue. "Restoration of Lebanese
sovereignty would be a wonderful thing. However, [UNSC's Syria-get-out] Resolution 1559
contains a second, less remarked-upon demand. This calls for disarming of all Lebanon's private
militias, only one of which - Hizbullah, Iranian-inspired 'Party of God' - is in fact still under arms.
Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon that left Hizbullah with its weapons could be dangerous in the
extreme...Disarming of Hizbullah - or if necessary its incorporation into official army of a
democratic Lebanon, free from foreign occupiers - is an aim all region's well-wishers ought to
support." Economist 26 Feb 05"Arab Satellite Television: The World Through Their Eyes"(23-5):-item finds a new and credible source for the anti-dictator movements taking place now not just
in Lebanon against Damascus(see Friedman above)."With 150 channels to choose from, Arabs
are arguing, comparing and questioning as never before. Will this burst of freer speech bring
democracy any closer?" Hence items reporting so much, they must be very briefly identified.
Reuters"Pressure Mounts on Syria, from Streets and Foes"NYT 28 Feb 05:-"Thousands of
demonstrators in Beirut defied official ban/hundreds of soldiers to protest against Syrian
domination of Lebanon."Fattah"Lebanon's Pro-Syria Government Is Dissolved After
Protests"NYT 01 Mar 05:-"Lebanon's PM, Omar Karami, resigned.,.dissolving country's pro-Syrian government and setting stage for intense struggle over relationship between Syria and
Lebanon." Steven R.WeismanNews Analysis:"Mideast Mix: New Promise of Democracy and
Threat of Instability"NYT 01 Mar 05:-"[R]egion churning with fresh demands for democracy, fresh
opportunities and fresh potential for instability...By almost any measure, there is an unusual
amount of turbulence throughout Mideast right now, and administration experts are not sure
whether all of it will work in US favor." Associated Press"Syria Scrambles to Ease Mounting
Pressure"NYT 01 Mar 05:-Syria, lately on losing side of international public opinion, is
scrambling to ease mounting pressure against it by sacrificing its allied Lebanese PM, turning
Saddam Hussein's half-brother over to Iraq and shifting around its troops in Lebanon."
AP"Lebanese President to Form New Government"NYT 01 Mar 05:-"Hundreds of protesters
blowing whistles and chanting anti-Syrian slogans returned to central Beirut...after forcing out
pro-Damascus PM, and Lebanon's president sought candidates for a new government." AP"Rice
Calls Syria 'Out of Step' in Mideast"NYT 02 Mar 05:-"Bush administration is applying its
strongest pressure to date on Syria, insisting on an immediate withdrawal from neighbouring
Lebanon and blaming terrorist based in Syria for last week's deadly suicide attack in Israel."
Brinkley & Alan Cowell"U.S. and France Join to Urge Syria to Pull Out of Lebanon"NYT 02 Mar
05:-"US and France together called on Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, just day after
pro-Syrian government of Lebanon collapsed under popular pressure."Fattah News Analysis:
"Syria Under Pressure: Worse Trouble May Lie Ahead"NYT 03 Mar 05:-"After decades of
controlling Lebanon's political/economic life, Syria facing prospect of political/economic tumult
as hold over Lebanon grows weaker. Under increasing pressure to withdraw its troops from
Lebanon, Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad is showing signs of siege mentality."
Reuters"Lebanese Opposition Demands Total Syrian Pullout" NYT 03 Mar 05:-"Lebanon's
opposition demanded Syrian troops and intelligence agents leave their country and Syrian-backed Lebanese society security chiefs resign." AP"Thousands of Syrian Workers Leave
Lebanon"NYT 03 Mar 05:-"[H]undreds of thousands of Syrian workers - mainly farmers and
construction workers - [were]lured to Lebanon by promise of higher pay. But their numbers have
noticeably dwindled since some have become targets after Hariri's death, which many Lebanese
blame on Syria and their own country's pro-Damascus authorities. Despite official Syrian and
Lebanese denials, anti-Syrian sentiment has reached fever pitch throughout this country."
AP"Arabs Try to Control Storm Over Syria"NYT 03 Mar 05:-"Arab leaders launched flurry of
diplomatic activity, including trip by Syrian President Bashar Assad to Saudi Arabia, as they
sought to control political storm over Syria's role in neighbouring Lebanon." Reuters"Syria's
Assad Discusses Lebanon Crisis with Saudis"NYT 03 Mar 05:- "Assad flew to Saudi Arabia for
crisis talks on future of Syrian troops in Lebanon as Russia and Germany joined international
demands for their speedy withdrawal. Damascus has faced mounting calls to end its military
and political dominance of Lebanon since last month's assassination of former Lebanese PM."
Friedman Op-Ed Columnist:"Brave, Young and Muslim"NYT 03 Mar 05:-On 9/11 we got hit with
everything that was going on 'out back'[i.e.under existing Arab/Muslim regimes]. Since then, it's
been clear to me that unless we partner with Arabs/Muslims to change their context, unless we
help them create free space for war of ideas that will allow for new discussion out front/out back,
we're just begging for another 9/11. I always knew we had partners there, but democratic
movements that have now emerged have shown me just how many young people there want to
give voice to their aspirations and achieve their full potential - something their governments and
spiritual leaders have been blocking. "[Read: Irshad Manji The Trouble With Islam Today.
www.muslim-refusenik.com] Fattah "Saudis Join Call for Syrian Force to Quit Lebanon" NYT 04
Mar 05:-Saudi Arabia told Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, adding substantially to
Syria's international isolation just a day after Russia joined Western nations in making similar
call...Crown Prince Abdullah had delivered unusually blunt rebuff. Egypt, the other key Arab
player, has also called for withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon." Reuters"Int'l Peacekeepers May
Help Syria Quit Lebanon - UK"NYT 04 Mar 05:-Britain urged Syria to withdraw its troops from
Lebanon and said international peacekeeping troops could be sent to ease the way. Pressure
from US, Europe and Arab nations for Syria to leave Lebanon has mounted since...Hariri
assassinated." AP"U.N. Peacekeepers May Be Headed to Lebanon"NYT 04 Mar 05:-"Members
of UN Security Council have discussed possibility of deploying peacekeeping forces in Lebanon
to cover withdrawal of Syrian troops, British Foreign Secretary said." Reuters"Suicide Bomb
Probably Killed Hariri - Lebanon Source"NYT 04 Mar 05:-Lebanon's investigations show that ex-PM Rafik al-Hariri was almost certainly killed by suicide car bomb, a judicial source to the probe
said." Reuters "Syrian - Backed President Vows Free Polls in Lebanon"NYT 04 Mar 05:-Lebanon's Syrian-backed President Emile Lahoud pledged...that general elections in May would
be free and fair and invited broad participation in a government to oversee the poll. Lebanese
anti-Syrian opposition, buoyed by toppling pro-Syrian government this week after large protests,
has demanded a 'neutral government' composed of figures from neither side of political divide."
Fattah"Syria May Announce Partial Pullout of Troops" NYT 04 Mar 05:-"Syria said its president,
Bashar al-Assad, would convene session of Parliament to deliver a speech, raising expectations
[Beirut]that he would announce partial pullout of troops from Lebanon in effort to ease
growing international pressure on his government. Political analysts in Damascus and Beirut
said the session...was notable for its timing/suddenness." Reuters"Assad: Syria Troops to
Pullback Gradually from Lebanon"NYT 05 Mar 05:-"Syria will gradually start to pull its troops out
of Lebanon but withdrawal from its tiny neighbour would not mean absence of a Syrian role
there, President Bashar al- Assad said. Under growing Lebanese, Arab and international
pressure to quit Lebanon, Assad told his parliament Syrian troops would initially pullback to the
Bekaa Valley in east Lebanon and then to the border area." AP "Syria Plans Two-Stage Lebanese
Pullback"NYT 05 Mar 05:-President Bashar Assad announced a two-stage pullback of Syrian
forces to Lebanese border[but]failed to address broad international demands that he completely
withdraw Syria's 15,000 troops after nearly 30 years in country...Also did not respond to
President Bush's demand just a day earlier that Syria have all its troops and intelligence agents
out of Lebanon before its parliamentary elections in May. Instead, Assad said his plan would put
Syria in full compliance with international agreements and UN demands."Economist 05 Mar
05"Democracy Stirs in the Middle East"(9);"Middle East: Something Stirs"(24-6):-both
Editorial/Special Report describe recent elections in Iraq and Palestine, and political
developments in Lebanon, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as being of broad regional significance and
importance."[T]ens of thousands of Lebanese people, from a kaleidoscope of religious groups,
have been marching together on streets of... Beirut, calling for democracy and removal of their
anti-democratic occupiers, Syrians. Syria's government is plainly nonplussed by this outburst
of people power and may even risk losing its clammy grip back home...Without a doubt,
something exciting is in the air. Democracy for Arabs can no longer be dismissed as the stuff
of foolish dreamers...Arab rulers must realise, as many of them now seem reluctantly to do, that
they cannot remain deaf to the democracy call. [T]he era of despotic stagnation is steadily
drawing to an end." Fattah & David E.Sanger"Syria Offers Gradual Pullback of Its Troops From
Lebanon"NYT 06 Mar 05:-"President Bashar al-Assad of Syria refused to comply with President
Bush's demand that he withdraw all of his country's troops and intelligence agents from
Lebanon, telling Syrian Parliament that he planned instead to order a gradual pullback to
Lebanese territory near Syria's borders. President Assad insisted that his 'gradual and
organizational withdrawal' would fulfill Syria's obligations under UN mandate drafted by
US/France in Sep and under the Taif accord, a 15-year-old agreement that was negotiated with
Arab nations and that Syria has never put into effect." Fattah "Hezbollah Backs Syria,
Challenging Lebanese Opposition"NYT 06 Mar 05:-Lebanese faction Hezbollah declared its full
support for Syria on [06 Mar], directly challenging opposition groups day after Syria promised
to gradually withdraw troops from Lebanon. Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, spoke
to reporters in his stronghold in southern Beirut, breaking weeks of relative silence over the
crisis concerning Syria's presence in Lebanon. He called for Lebanese to'express their
gratitude'to Syria by joining demonstration on[08Mar] against UN Resolution 1559, which calls
for Syria's withdrawal and Hezbollah's disarmament...Although he acknowledged that Syrian
pullout was reality, he emphasized that Syria must be able to leave with honor - reaction to
repeated statements by the Bush administration and Lebanese opposition groups calling for a
quick and complete pullout of Syrian forces." Reuters"Syrians to Pull Back to Eastern Lebanon
This Month"NYT 07 Mar 05:-Syrian forces, under world pressure to quit Lebanon, will pull back
to eastern areas this month and Damascus and Beirut will then decide how long the troops stay,
the leaders of the two countries agreed Monday(06 Mar). Pullback would be the biggest single
such move since Syrian forces intervened in Lebanon's civil war in 1976. It now has some 14,000
troops there, down from 40,000...Assad said Saturday he would withdraw his troops but declared
Damascus would still play a role in its much smaller neighbour." Reuters"Lebanon's Palestinians
Hold on to Arms, Fear Future"NYT 07 Mar 05:-In teeming Ain el-Hilweh refugee camp, political
tensions are rekindling memories of massacres of Palestinians by right-wing Christian militias
during the 1975-90 civil war." Volker Windfuhr & Bernhard Zand"Lebanon: A Wave of
Disobedience"Der Spiegle via NYT 07 Mar 05:-"In the wake of the ouster of Lebanese
government, rulers of Syria and Egypt are under pressure to allow reforms...Many Lebanese are
still adjusting to new realities in their country. Lebanon, a small country that has garnered
sympathy from the Maghreb to the Persian Gulf, but is consistently pitied as an ungovernable
multiethnic state, has set an example. Without bloodshed, demonstrators managed to topple the
country's Syrian-controlled government, overcoming internal differences previously considered
insurmountable. Jad Mouawad"Protests in Beirut Grow as Assad Gives No Date for Pullout" NYT
07 Mar 05:-"Two days after president of Syria left vague the extent of a promised troop
withdrawal, he clarified his plan somewhat on[07 Mar]: by end of Mar, Syria will move its soldiers
in Lebanon closer to the border. But he offered no public timetable to remove any troops from
the country...The eclectic opposition - composed of Christian, Druse and Sunni Muslim
politicians, although notably lacking in Shiite Muslims - believes that it has already scored
precious points against Syria and is eager to press its advantage before parliamentary elections,
to be held in May...[07 Mar]announcement increases likehihood Syrian troops will still be in the
country when Lebanese go to the polls...[D]uring rare speech to Syrian Parliament on[05 Mar,
President Assad] noted presence of hundred of thousands of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon,
and said Lebanese resistence movement - a reference to Hezbollah, militant Shiite group labeled
terrorist by US - had right to keep its weapons. He also warned against a separate peace
between Lebanon and Israel that would not include Syria." AP "Pro-Syria Demonstrators Gather
in Lebanon"NYT 08 Mar 05:-"Pro-Syrian protesters gathered in central Beirut square[08 Mar],
answering a nationwide call by militant Shiite Muslim Hezbollah group for demonstration to
counter weeks of massive rallies demanding Syrian forces leave Lebanon. Loudspeakers blared
songs of resistance and organizers handed out Lebanese flags...Black-clad Hezbollah guards
handled security, lining perimeter of square and taking position on rooftops. Trained dogs
sniffed for bombs...Hezbollah...been mobilizing its followers from across country for protest,
also meant to denounce UN resolution that, in addition to...Syrian withdrawal, called for
dismantling militias -point Hezbollah sees as aimed at its well-armed military wing...Under plan
announced[07 Mar], all Syrian troops in Lebanon would fall back to eastern regions near Syrian
border by 31 Mar. Military officers will decide by end of Apr on duration and size of Syrian forces
to remain in that region. After that period, the two governments would decide on date for
pullout." Reuters"Syria Says Lebanon Pullout to Include Intelligence"NYT 08 Mar 05:-"Syria's
promised troop pullout from Lebanon will include intelligence and security personnel, Syrian
official source said[08 Mar]. Source gave no timetable for second phase of pullout announced
[07 Mar], but said'This doesn't mean it won't be soon. Fact that security forces were not
mentioned in statement is merely because they move along with armed forces. It is a given.
Withdrawal is of all Syrian forces,' source told Reuters." Fattah"Pro-Syria Party in Beirut Holds
a Huge Protest"NYT 08 Mar 05:-"Enormous crowd, in which many had been bused in from Shiite
slums of southern Beirut, was far larger than anti-Syrian demonstrations of recent weeks...It
offered defiant challenge to Lebanese opposition forces that have insisted on Syrian withdrawal,
and exposed fault lines of class and ideology...Banners held aloft read:'No to US-Zionist
intervention. Yes to Lebanese-Syrian brotherhood'...Participants...represented, by and large, a
very different Lebanon from educated, better-off Christians, Druse and Sunni Muslims[in]anti-Syrian opposition[that also]included far more women with covered heads and many men in
traditional dress. Hezbollah...now Lebanon's best-organized political party[which]maintains
militia of some 20,000 men...To Hezbollah/followers, foreign threat...comes not from Syria but
from Israel, and its ally US...Many Lebanese Shiites say Israel still has designs on their land and
US-backed democracy movement simply another form of US imperialism". Some claim
opposition wants to open door to US/foreign intervention. Opposition leader, Jibran Tuweini,
editor of daily An Nahar, states:"This is a goodbye party, not show of support for Syria...If they
wanted this to be challenge to us, they would have brought their party's yellow flags. But
Hezbollah doesn't want to burn its bridges with anyone,...[U]ltimately they will have to return to
Lebanese people once everything over...This is delicate situation, but not dangerous one...I'm
not worried about unity of Lebanese."Joshua M.Landis"Q&A: A Blogger's Report From
Damascus"Council on Foreign Relations 08 Mar 05:-"Landis, a Fulbright scholar spending a year
in Damascus, says international and foreign pressure will eventually force President Bashar al-Assad to pull all Syrian troops out of Lebanon. But he said Assad trying to make deal that would
allow Syria to station devices in Lebanon to warn of impending attack from Israel."Also assistant
professor Mideast studies Univ. of Oklahoma/writes weblog called syriacomment.com about
Syrian politics. Questions(about 20 by CFR Bernard Gwertzman)raise all the natural issues
raised in or by the above material. Landis is well informed and seems objective.
Reuters"Lebanon Set to Return Pro-Syria Government After Protest"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"Majority
in Lebanon parliament nominated recently-resigned pro-Syrian PM Omar Karami [09 Mar]to form
a new government. Opposition MPs did not nominate anyone to lead government, handing
[President Emile]Lahoud a list of demands instead, including resignation of country's security
chiefs/demand for authorities to reveal who was behind assassination of Hariri ...Karami will
have difficult task of forming a government of national unity, bringing in a number of opposition
figures." AP"Bush Calls Syrian Withdrawal a 'Half Measure'"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"President Bush
said [09 Mar] that Syria's withdrawal plans in Lebanon are just a 'half measure' and that Syrian
intelligence services exercise 'heavy-handed' influence in Lebanon's government. Bush
reiterated his call on Syria to remove all its soldiers and intelligence forces from Lebanon and
said US was consulting with allies about possible steps if Damascus refuses." Jad
Mouawad"Lebanese Assembly Re-elects Pro-Syria Premier Who Quit"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"Nine days
after Lebanon's pro-Syrian PM, Omar Karami, was forced to quit under pressure by opponents
of Syria's occupation, he was voted back into the post [09 Mar] by Lebanese Parliament. Karami
was chosen by 71 deputies out of a current total of 126. President Emile Lahoud is bound by the
choice of Parliament - which is dominated by pro-Syrian deputies - and will appoint him[10 Mar].
Nomination of a Syrian supporter angered those who have sought end to influence of Damascus
in Lebanon and threw political system into deeper turmoil. Opposition members of Parliament
have said they would not join a government that failed to meet their demands, which include
dismissal of Lebanese security chiefs and full withdrawal of Syrian troops...But Syria seems now
to have regained the initiative, emboldened by a huge pro-Syrian rally in downtown Beirut on [08
Mar] led by Hezbollah, militant Shiite Muslim group...Karami will form cabinet that will serve until
election. His supporters say they wish to build a government of national unity with the
opposition...Opposition leaders wanted a transitional government of technocrats to prepare the
elections." AP"Lebanon May Reinstate Pro-Syria PM"NYT 09 Mar 05:-[additional info to above:]
Syria keen to keep hold on neighbour's decision-making as it pulls 14,000 forces back to
Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and negotiates with government in Beirut on troops' full removal at later
date. As part of pullback...Syrian soldiers evacuated Lebanese positions in north and central
mountains [09 Mar]. Long convoys of Syrian trucks and buses headed east on mountain roads
and soldiers evacuated northern port of Tripoli...Lebanese soldiers quickly took over [some]
Syrian bases...UNSG Kofi Annan called for full troop withdrawal and said sending an envoy to
region to discuss the matter...Opposition member...described Karami's reappointment as
government effort to scuttle any attempts at dialogue...He did not say how opposition plans to
react...[Lahoud] said investigation into Hariri's assassination was already priority for Lebanese
government. Number of Syrian military positions stood empty after late [08 Mar] withdrawals in
Batroun, northern Lebanon, and at mountain base of Dahr al-Wahash east of Beirut. AP"Syrians
Fill Streets to Support President"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"Hundreds of thousands of Syrians took
over[Damascus]main streets[09 Mar], singing and proclaiming their loyalty to President Bashar
Assad in face of intensifying foreign pressure to pull out of Lebanon. Reuters"Syria Takes Heart
After Battering Over Lebanon"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"Under renewed US fire for its involvement in
Lebanon, Syria sought to regain ground on [09 Mar],staging a loyalist demonstration in
Damascus amid moves to reappoint a pro-Syrian prime minister in Beirut. Tens of thousands of
Syrians thronged central Damascus to proclaim support for President Bashar al-Assad, a day
after a Beirut rally called for by Syrian-backed Hizbollah group drew hundreds of thousands of
Lebanese to thank Syria for its role." Todd S.Purdum"For Bush, a Taste of Vindication in
Mideast"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"At the very least, Bush is feeling glow of the recent flurry of impulses
toward democracy in Iraq, the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and even Egypt and Saudi Arabia,
where events have put him on a bit of a roll and some of his sharpest critics on the defensive."
Steven R.Weisman"U.S. Called Ready to See Hezbollah in Lebanon Role"NYT 09 Mar 05:-"After
years of campaigning against Hezbollah, radical Shiite Muslim party in Lebanon, as terrorist
pariah, Bush administration is grudgingly going along with efforts by France and UN to steer
party into Lebanese political mainstream. Administration's shift described by US, European and
UN officials as a reluctant recognition that Hezbollah, besides having militia and sponsoring
attacks on Israelis, is an enormous political force in Lebanon that could block Western efforts
to get Syria to withdraw its troops...A special UN envoy, Terje Roed-Larsen, is to press for troop
withdrawal. Officially, Roed-Larsen's mission is also to demand disarmament of Hezbollah, but
as practical matter that objective has receded." Friedman Op-Ed Columnist:"The Beirut Tea
Party"NYT 10 Mar 05:-"What we have been seeing in outbursts of democracy in streets of Beirut,
Baghdad, Cairo and even Riyadh is something real and authenic. It is driven both in response
to particular events...and in response to a deep longing in this part of the world for a different
future, particularly among young people, who know what is going on elsewhere and want their
own piece of the freedom pie...Nawaf Salam's...recent book, 'Options for Lebanon', is best road
map you will find for thinking through how democracy may emerge there...Fact that Hezbollah
had to resort to mass rally...is itself victory for democrats. Hezbollah clearly felt that it must
prove it is as popular a force as democratic opposition. But something tells me that those
Hezbollah demonstrators who were waving picture of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, were
uncomfortable. And this is Hezbollah's weak spot: deep down, it and its supporters know that
when they raise the pictures of Syria's president, they are raising question of whose interests
they have at heart." AP"Pro-Syrian Lebanese Leader Is Reappointed"NYT 10 Mar 05:-"Karami,
who continued to lead caretaker government, immediately invited opposition to join him in
national unity government. He said he will begin consultations early next week with lawmakers
to form Cabinet...But opposition, who orchestrated protests that led to Karami's 28 Feb
resignation, rejected the reappointment even before it became official. They have complained
national unity proposal was trap to bring opposition members into Cabinet without [gaining] say
in policymaking. Karami suggested he might not proceed if he fails in bringing all factions
together." Reuters"Karami Comeback Risks More Turmoil in Lebanon"NYT 10 Mar 05:-"PM Omar
Karami[,reappointed on 10 Mar,] risking a fresh battle with opposition, which had forced the
Sunni Muslim politician to quit only 10 days ago... Syrian troops continued to move eastwards
in line with a phased withdrawal plan agreed this week, and Lebanon's defense minister said
thousands were already flowing across the border. Karami, who had resigned amid a storm of
anti-Syrian protests in Beirut, said his new mission was to form a national unity government to
save Lebanon from destruction...'Only way to confront all difficulties facing nation is government
of national unity,' Karami told reporters". Mouawad "Peacefully, Lebanese Recapture Their
North" NYT 10 Mar 05:-description of Lebanese unit in north taking over Syrian army facilities
that had been left empty. [Additional info not included elsewhere:]"In [Beirut] Syria appeared to
be tightening its grip on Lebanese politics, sharply dividing the country between opponents and
supporters...Lebanon's defense minister, Abdul Rahim Mrad, said'thousands'of troops were
getting ready[sic] to cross back into Syria...Opposition called for another demonstration in
Martyrs' Square in Beirut on[14 Mar], which will also be the one-month anniversary of Hariri's
death...'Karami's reinstatement is extension of crisis and fails to open door to dialogue,'Walid
Jumblatt, one of leaders of the opposition, said during a visit to Moscow[sic].'After all, Karami
does not control anything. It is [President]Lahoud who controls the state,...and behind him the
Syrian intelligence'...Opposition has been bolstered by popular demonstrations and unrelenting
pressure from foreign countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as US and
European countries...While in some corners of country, Syrian soldiers could now be seen
moving, in other places there were few signs that troops were in a rush to pack up. In Bois de
Boulogne, a resort on a strategic hilltop linking Beirut and the Bekaa region, Syrian soldiers
could be seen peering from the balconies in most of the fancy villas that line main street." Rami
G.Khouri"Q&A: The View From Beirut"Council on Foreign Relations 10 Mar 05:-interview with
editor of Beirut Daily Star and syndicated Arab columnist. Says that political atmosphere in
Lebanon"is unique in modern Arab world...that Syria's agreement to withdraw its troops from
Lebanon quite unprecedented, but there are many key questions to be answered: Is Syria's
withdrawal really going to be clean and complete? What will happen when Syrians pull out?
How will Lebanese political system adjust? How will internal forces confront each other? Will
they compete through political process, make coalitions, vie for power?" Khouri, Palestinian-Jordanian and US citizen, also states"Bush has decided that[election] has got to be done by
May. George Bush is not morally, legally, politically, or divinely mandated to set election
deadlines and draw deadlines for anybody in the world...I think it is historically incorrect,
politically audacious, and morally insulting for US president to go around trying to claim credit
for Arabs who are striving for democracy and freedom." AP"Hezbollah Official: Group Not Syrian
Tool"NYT 11 Mar 05:-Sheik Naim Kassem, Hezbollah deputy leader, on 11 Mar offered militant
group's general views at time of demands for Syrian withdrawl and it own disarmament.
"Hezbollah...trying to present itself as Lebanese nationalist group despite its ties to Iran and
Syria. 'We are not an arm for anyone. We are Lebanese party with its own convictions and
aspirations. We don't take orders from anyone[or] follow any state in the world'. [Group]involved
in Lebanese politics for over a decade and has nine members in current legislature...But it
steered away from major decision-making as its guerrilla army focused on fighting Israel,
earning itself wide respect among Lebanese." Since Hariri's death,"'Party has decided to be
more active in entering internal political life so that its experience could be used to save
Lebanon after all complexities which have emerged on political level. We have realized that
(recent) developments have brought Lebanon to a situation where we are required to speak out
on everything on the internal (political) level'...This week Hezbollah sided with the pro-Syrian
government [by massive demonstration] to protest international calls led by US for Syria to
withdraw its [troops] from Lebanon. Rally dwarfed anti-Syrian and anti-government
protests[of]past three weeks. Kassem said by throwing Hezbollah's weight into central area of
Lebanese politics, group would be able 'to influence the general political vision and general
picture' in the country. 'We felt Lebanon today is at crossroad, and this requires that we be more
active internally.'" AP"U.N. Envoy Expects Timetable From Syria"NYT 11 Mar 05:-UN expects
Syrian President Assad to produce timetable for full withdrawal of Syrian troops and intelligence
officers from Lebanon, UN envoy Roed-Larsen said[11 Mar]. 'I expect we will get commitment
and timetables for full implementation of [UNSC Resolution]1559'.Lebanese officials have said
first phase of [Syrian troops] pullback, including of Syrian intelligence, would be completed by
23 Mar...In last two days, troops have left most of their positions in northern port of Tripoli and
two hilltop positions above that city. UN Security Council is due to consider implementation of
resolution next month. It could impose sanctions on Syria if it deems country to have flouted the
resolution". AP"Last Syrian Troops Leave Northern Lebanon"NYT 11 Mar 05:-"Syrian troops left
northern Lebanon [11 Mar], but left behind intelligence officers in nine offices...Convoys of
Syrian trucks, some towing artillery pieces, were seen driving [10 Mar] night toward northern
Syria. Empty trucks and buses arrived in central Lebanon [10 Mar], apparently to pick up Syrian
supplies and soldiers who are headed east...[PM] Karami said...international observers welcome
to monitor parlamentary elections scheduled to start next month, first time Lebanon signaled
acceptance of foreign monitors.[Later said] he would welcome international independent
delegation...to observe... elections, even though he warned polls may have to be
postponed...Christian opposition group...rejected Karami's reappointment [10 Mar] calling it 'an
escalation that confirms Syria's insistence on policy of tutelage which Lebanese have refused,
and consequently increases doubts about Syria's seriousness in withdrawing its troops from
Lebanon. In Gaza Strip on [11 Mar], masked gunmen from militant Islamic Jihad group held pro-Syrian rally, marching through Gaza...and burning Israeli and US flags. About 2,000 took part."
Reuters"Syrians Quit North Lebanon, Crisis Threatens Polls"NYT 11 Mar 05:-"Thousands of
soldiers/hundreds of vehicles streamed across Syrian border after overnight pullout...Some
intelligence offices evacuated, although one still maintained in Tripoli, a security source said...It
was not clear how many Syrian soldiers have gone home since redeployment began on[08
Mar]...A pro-Syrian political source[not to be identified] warned of power vacuum that could
force authorities to postpone election. 'Initial reactions of opposition indicate refusal to join
government and thus we're heading to a government crisis... which would indirectly scrap the
elections.' A government must be formed soon to allow parliament to issue a law organizing
elections at least a month before they begin. Otherwise polls have to be rescheduled...Karami
will start consulting political/religious leaders, including some in opposition, on[14 Mar]...Pro-Syrian ministers dominated his last cabinet. US...criticized Karami's reappointment." Fattah"U.N.
Envoy to Urge Timetable for Syrian Pullout"NYT 11Mar 05:-Terje Roed-Larsen, UN envoy who is
to meet with President Assad[12 Mar],expected Syrian leader to outline timetable for final
withdrawal of troops from Bekaa region of Lebanon after all Syrian troops pulled back to that
strategic area. [Envoy] arrived in Beirut [11Mar] and paid respects to family of Rafik Hariri, former
PM whose assassination on 14 Feb set off firestorm over Syria's presence in Lebanon.'Issue
on[12 Mar]will be time and only time'said Samir al-Taqi, researcher with Damascus Center for
Strategic Studies. Syria's goal is to pull out according to terms of 1989 Taif agreement that
ended Lebanon's civil war and set terms for Syria's withdrawal, rather than hew to terms of UN
Resolution 1559. Syria may also seek to buy time in order to sign a final withdrawal with elected
Lebanese government, instead of interim government currently being assembled in Beirut, to
ensure that its interests firmly protected. 'They want to make sure that they don't pull out with
their backs bare, and with Lebanese Army not in place,' Taqi said. Marwan al-Kabalan, professor
at Damascus University, said,'Syrians might feel now they are not really in hurry to withdraw
from Bekaa Valley'. He said UN envoy was under significant pressure from international
community to seek complete withdrawal of Syrian troops, especially before Lebanon's
parliamentary elections in May. 'US is interested in one thing and one thing only, a complete
withdrawal before end of May, and [envoy] will have to give strong message to Syrians
tomorrow." AP"Hezbollah Stakes Out Bigger Political Role"NYT 11 Mar 05:- Hezbollah intends
to take more active role in Lebanese politics but won't disarm as long as Palestinian-Israeli
conflict persists...By [11 Mar]evening, almost all Syria's troops had moved into eastern Bekaa
Valley - almost three weeks ahead of 31 Mar target date to complete redeployment. Only a few
bases and outposts remained in mountains northeast of Beirut. Troops in north Lebanon left
country completely. However, Syrian intelligence agents - widely feared and resented among
Lebanese - remained in place in all vacated areas. Agents are Syrian authorities who deal most
directly with Lebanese, setting up checkpoints and carrying out arrests. People must go to them
to get permits and licenses or even to resolve family disputes. Their offices are in apartment
buildings, plainly visible with armed officers outside. [Remainder similar to"Hezbollah Official:..."
above.] Fattah"Syria Reported to Accept Demand to Pull All Forces From Lebanon"NYT 12 Mar
05:-"President Bashar al-Assad of Syria agreed to carry out UNSC resolution calling for complete
Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, and offered to set timetable for pullout as well, according to
official Syrian news agency/UN envoy[Terje Roed-Larsen]".President and envoy met in Aleppo
12 Mar. "Commitment to full troop withdrawal would be shift in policy. Just over week ago,
Assad committed to moving Syrian troops toward border but left time frame vague. Then he
issued joint statement with Lebanese president Emile Lahoud saying Syrian pullout would have
to wait for further negotiations with a future Lebanese government. Roed-Larsen arrived with
tough words for Assad from UNSC. Washington Post quoted envoy on [11 Mar]as warning Syria
risked punitive sanctions if it did not meet terms of resolution, which calls for complete Syrian
troop withdrawal and disarming Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Roed-Larsen said in statement [12
Mar]Assad's commitment 'promising', adding that he would provide UNSG Kofi Annan with
further details about pullout. He said Assad promised timetable for pullout once Syrian Lebanese
Supreme Council, made up of top officials from the two countries, meets in coming week...Bush
administration, European and UN officials say joint effort to press for disarming of Hezbollah is
to be deferred until after Syrian withdrawal is carried out and elections can occur in Lebanon in
May. But UN official said Roed-Larsen would discuss eventual disarming of Hezbollah with
Lebanese leaders on [13 Mar]." AP"U.N. to Get Syria's Timetable for Lebanon Pullout"NYT 12 Mar
05:-"Assad reiterated his commitment to withdrawing all Syrian troops and intelligence agents
from Lebanon, UN envoy said [12 Mar], adding he would present timetable for pullout at UN next
week...Roed-Larsen said meeting was'very constructive' and he was'much encouraged
by...Assad's commitment to full implementation of UNSC resolution calling for Syria's immediate
withdrawal from Lebanon...[Envoy] said redeployment to Bekaa Valley before end of this month
will include withdrawal of 'significant number of these Syrian troops, including intelligence,' from
Lebanon into Syria. 'Second stage will lead to complete/full withdrawal of all Syrian military
personnal and intelligence apparatus,' said UN envoy, who added that he will continue his
dialogue with Assad/other concerned parties. [Envoy will repeat recent visits to Egypt, Jordan
and Lebanon.] Meanwhile in Beirut, around 11,000 protesters from opposition groups carrying
colored paper boards gathered across street from Hariri's tomb in central Martyrs Square to form
huge Lebanese red, white and green flag. They chanted 'freedom, truth, national unity'."
Reuters"Russia Is for Syria Withdrawal But Without Threats"NYT 12 Mar 05:-"Russia advocates
withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, including intelligence, despite having abstained on
UNSC resolution. But Moscow reluctant to take punitive action if Syria does not pull out quickly...
UN officials said [UN envoy] could not give Syria ultimatum or threaten punitive sanctions UNSC
might not approve...Resolution, adopted 02 Sep, calls all foreign troops to leave Lebanon and
for disarmament of militia, such as Hizbollah group, backed by Syria and Iran...Six out of 15
UNSC members abstained in Sep, indication punitive action in case of non-compliance would
be difficult...[Russian UN representative] said Russia abstained because 'we were not sure that
was most constructive and positive way to solve that problem.' But he said Moscow was
'committed to the resolution'." UN official said Russian Foreign Minister had offered Roed-Larsen Moscow's support, by phone. "[FM] said in Moscow that Syrian withdrawal'should be
gradual and...not undermine ethnic or religious situation in region...This especially important in
light of upcoming...election in Lebanon, which we hope will be held without outside
interference." AP"Lebanon's Political Turmoil Hurts Its Economy"NYT 12 Mar 05:-"Downtown
Beirut's once-bustling cafes and restaurants are all but empty, hotel occupancy rates have
dropped sharply and Central Bank is intervening daily in the market to keep up with demand for
dollars. Lebanon economy is suffering after nearly a month of political instability set off by
assassination of former PM, Rafik Hariri, in a bombing in center of capital...Bankers said
downturn began with assassination and worsened during turmoil that followed...Hariri, a wealthy
businessman, led reconstruction effort after Lebanon's 1975-90 civil war, attracting billions of
dollars in investment during his 10 years as PM...Financial sector...is also under strong pressure.
Since bombing, Lebanese have been switching their savings from Lebanese pounds to safety
of dollar...A top fear in business world is that confrontation between anti-Syrian opposition and
Syrian-allied government will deepen. [Reappointment of Karami as PM]'was not positive sign
for markets...Authorities must find a political solution in order to ease the economic situation."
Neil MacFarquhar"Hezbollah Leader's New Fray: Lebanese Politics"NYT 12 Mar 05:-"When Sheik
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah leader, addressed the hundreds of thousands of party faithful who
gathered in largest rally in Lebanon's modern history on[08 Mar],his usual theme of liberating
Jerusalem went unmentioned. [He]focused uncharacteristically on future of Lebanon. Speech
also remarkable for its venue - downtown Beirut - and absence of trademark: Hezbollah green
and yellow banner with fist brandishing Kalashnikiv. [Nasrallah stood]in front of Lebanese
flag...Question whether anyone can fill[Hariri's] shoes as kind of national arbitrator. Huge march
served as Nasrallah's opening bid for job...'We have never seen him as a Lebanese leader,' said
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, professor at Lebanese American University and author of book
[Hizbu'Llah: Politics and Religion]. 'Hezbollah might emerge as the new power broker in Lebanon
outside Syria'...To some extent, he has stayed above endlessly bickering fray of Lebanese
politics. He gained national stature by directing Hezbollah's considerable firepower...against
Israeli Army...Once he punges fully into political fray, however, he becomes less of pro-Arab,
pan-Islamic figurehead and may be considered just one more Lebanese ward boss,
albeit...largest Shiite bloc. Also questionable how his support for Syria...will play in country
where many are sick of what they see as its exploitive neighbour. Becoming 'more Lebanese'
could well prove necessary. Hani Hammoud, one of Hariri's closest advisors, said,'Before
[extraordinary Hezbollah march,] you had at least 50% of all Lebanese [against UN's militia
disarmament, as]national resistance movement.' Next phase could be markedly different [if
Hezbollah] 'keeps repeating "We want Syria".'[Nezrallah has strong support from Shiites, but]
Lebanese population means no sect is big enough to dominate[,and he claimed,]'We don't think
in a sectarian manner'...Even Shiite critics argue that Hezbollah must reconcile its long-held
stand as a body of persecuted outsiders with its yearning for more stature before it tries to lead
nation...On larger scale, Lebanon's potential will be hobbled as long as Hezbollah remains
possible source of instability." Economist 12 Mar 05"Lebanon: Now For the Counter-Revolution"47:-"This week...Syria's allies recovered balance. Most powerful...by far, Shiite party-cum-militia Hezbollah, called out demonstration dwarfing previous displays of people power.
Hezbollah charismatic leader, Hassan Nazrallah, declared resoundingly...Lebanon would never
renounce resistance to Israel. Supporters, many black-shirted or veiled, working-class Shiites,
presented stark contrast to young/jeans-clad/largely Christian anti-Syrian protesters who had
enlivened Lebanese TV previous month. Hezbollah's 500,000 turnout was blunk reminder of
changing demographics.[O]nce-marginalized Shiites were largest of country's sects[.;.]not only
well-organized[but]armed. Hezbollah's 20,000 militia exempted from general disarmament agreed
by other parties at 1990 conclusion of civil war...Ominously,..intimidation ...including
threats/gunshots aimed at suspected opposition supporters. Yet optimism survives. Pro- and
anti-Syrian camps less polarised than appear. Both declare importance of Lebanese sovereignty.
Even Nasrallah accepts need for Syrian troops to go. Both camps say they forswear force and
committed to democracy and Taif Accords which ended war by reapportioning powers among
18 religious confessions. Only one issue really divides them. UNSC resolution calls...for
disbanding all local militias. To many.,.this obviously includes Hezbollah's'resistance'forces, but
to others.,.maintenance of armed deterrant[-once successful against Israel,]is non-negotiable...Yet even Hezbollah must eventually realise times have changed. Syria, linchpin of
Arab resistance, is economically, militarily and strategically weak, not to mention ideologically
bankrupt. All other Arab governments, many Palestinians and a good half of Lebanese are weary
of resisting what is, ultimately, rest of the world's desire for peace. Perhaps Lebanon needs
formula that allows it to retain its Arabism while being part of that dreaded
US[democracy]project." Economist 12 Mar 05"Foreign Policy: A Gentle Glow"(32-3):-examines
how much credit should US President Bush get for recent democracy-related changes in Middle
East. Officials think"region's changes validate Bush's decision to trumpet 'promoting
democracy',..but here US influence is split into three categories: one where it was direct; one
where it was indirect/vestigial; and those(majority)in between".Iraq: US influence on election
was decisive, but not typical case precisely because of use of force. Palestine: opposite end of
spectrum(Arafat death was followed by election). In other countries, US influence lies between
these two extremes. Lebanon: US policy largely opportunistic, adding - with others - external
pressure on Syria through UNSC, and in many ways counter-productive. Jordan: plans for
regional elections response in part for US pressure. Saudi Arabia: held municipal elections since
US forces withdrawn and hence not issue. Egypt: after domestic political crackdown drew US
criticism, Mubarak to allow competition in his re-election. Bush's "claim of a 'critical mass' in
favour of reform probably premature." AP"Syria to Decide on Withdrawal in April"NYT 13 Mar
05:-"Syria has withdrawn nearly a third of its troops from Lebanon, a senior officer said [13 Mar],
but Lebanese Foreign Minister Mahmoud Hammoud said date for complete withdrawal would
not be set until meeting of military leadership of two countries 07 Apr. Meanwhile, pro-Syrian
rally organized by Hezbollah drew at least 100,000 protesters in southern market town of
Nabatiyeh. They burned Israeli flags and waved posters of Syrian president, Assad - second such
rally...Senior Syrian officer said about 4,000 soldiers had crossed border into Syria since pullout
began on [08 Mar], and remaining 10,000 were in Bekaa Valley[:i.e.]'Another 4,000 soldiers in
central mountains redeployed to Bekaa region, in addition to 6,000 already in Bekaa'.Fate of
10,000 troops in Bekaa would be discussed by 07 Apr military commission. FM Hammoud also
said commission would set 'duration, time and location in these matters'.[He] made remarks
after meeting with UN envoy...President Bush...wants Syria to move out before Lebanon's
elections scheduled Apr and May. Asked if...before elections, Hammoud said it was up to joint
military commission to decide. Roed-Larsen indicated had extracted timetable for full withdrawal
from Assad during their meeting [12 Mar] but would not reveal it until he meets with UNSG
Annan in NY this week...'Commission will present proposals to Lebanese and Syrian
governments about status of Syrian forces in Bekaa and define these forces' relationship with
local authorities', Syrian official said. Syria also has about 1,000 intelligence agents in Lebanon,
according to a Lebanese military official,..but it wasn't clear if their fate would be part of
discussions. Syria has been main power broker in Lebanon for nearly three decades...The 1989
Arab-brokered Taif Accord - never implemented - called for Syria to move its troops to Lebanese
border and for both countries to then negotiate withdrawal. Pressure on Syria to remove its
troops gathered strength when Lebanese presidential elections were upended by Parliament's
renewal of Lahoud's six-year term [last] Sep, under Syrian pressure. [Hence UN Resolution
1559.] UN envoy met with several Lebanese officials [13 Mar] and said his mission was to ensure
resolution's implementation. Lahoud told envoy that Lebanese and Syrian leaderships have
agreed on series of military measures to secure Syrian troop withdrawal in line with the Taif
agreement. On [12 Mar]Lahoud said Lebanon will not accept resolution's demand that Hezbollah
group be disarmed ... UNSC is to receive report next month from Annan on Syria's
implementation of resolution. It then will consider next steps, which could include sanctions on
Syria". Reuters"Report: Syria to Pull Third of Troops by March 31"NYT 13 Mar 05:-[unique info:]
Syrian President...promised to move the remaining forces to the eastern Bekaa Valley and shut
down its intelligence headquarters in Beirut by the end of month.[Washington Post, citing
anonymous US and UN sources.] Reuters"Syrian - Backed Hizbollah Rallies Against U.S."NYT
13 Mar 05:-"Hundreds of thousands of people turned out for Hizbollah rally against US [on 13
Mar]in Nabatiyah, even as UN envoy met Lebanese president to press demands for a Syrian
pullout... Demonstration demanded an end to 'foreign intervention' but was clearly aimed at US
and Israel, not Syria. 'America out!' yelled supporters of Syrian-backed Shiite Muslim group at
rally...Many placards at...rally read 'No to foreign intervention'. Crowd, waving Lebanese flags,
chanted 'Death to America, death to Israel'...Rally organized by Hizbollah and smaller Shiite Amal
party...Hizbollah, main guerrilla group which fought Israeli occupation of Lebanon's south, was
allowed to keep its arms when militias were disarmed after the war. It claimed credit for driving
Israeli forces out in 2000. FM Hammoud told reporters Lebanon's leaders had told Roed-Larsen
they rejected part of 1559 calling for militias in Lebanon to be disarmed. 'We said to him: We
don't have any militias; we have a resistance that is supported by all Lebanese people', he said.
Protesters, who were mostly Shiites but were joined by some Druze and others, came from
across southern Lebanon to support Hizbullah's armed 'Islamic resistance', witnesses said.
Some burned Israeli and US flags....Lebanon's opposition movement plans to hold a big
demonstration in central Beirut [14 Mar], a month to the day since Hariri was killed. They demand
an international investigation into his assassination...A few thousand protesters held a candlelit
vigil in Beirut's central Martyrs Square evening [13 Mar]. Hundreds of flickering flames formed
the word 'Truth'." AP"Mubarak: Democracy Can't Come From Outside"NYT 13 Mar 05:-"Democratic reform in the Arab world cannot be imposed from outside, Egyptian President Hosni
Mubabak said [13 Mar] in apparent rebuke of US-led efforts to speed up change in the region.
Mubarak, Egypt's leader since 1981 and an ally of US, told regional conference on reform that
his order last month to change constitution to let more than one candidate stand in presidential
elections this Sep 'crowned efforts we have already exerted to achieve political reforms'. In
another indication of change, Egypt on [12 Mar] released Ayman Nour, an opposition leader who
announced his presidential bid while in jail after US raised concerns about his imprisonment.
Nour's jailing also called into question Egypt's pledges of democratic reform...But Mohammed
Faiek, a political activist who heads Arab Organization for Human Rights, [at conference] called
upon Arab governments and opposition to not be 'intolerant toward reforms coming from
abroad, because this is trend of the day'." AP"Syrian Official Says Troops Will Leave Before
Lebanese Elections" NYT 13 Mar 05:-[new info only:] "[Syrian] Cabinet minister, Boutaina
Shaaban, told CNN: 'The[Lebanese Parliamentary] elections will take place and I think the troops
will move out of Lebanon probably before then.' [Nabatiyah] damonstrators - some estimates put
their number as high as 300,000 - shouted... slogans denouncing UN resolution, under which
Syria is now moving its forces. Syria's official news agency claimed hundreds of thousands of
flag-waving Syrians rallied in the northwestern city of Lattakia in support of Assad. There was
no way to independently verify crowd's size...After his meetings with Lebanese officials, Roed-Larsen said 'very encouraged by(Lebanese opposition leader Walid Jumblatt's) attitude', adding
that 'dialogue is the only way forward'. UN envoy said he and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
focused on'necessity of having free and fair elections in Lebanon according to established time
and schedule'. Opposition members met delegation of European socialist parties at Jumblatt's
home to relay European demands for a free Lebanon and complete Syrian troop withdrawal
before elections. Despite troop pullouts, Jumblatt said 'Anjar still governs', reference to Syrian
intelligence HQ in eastern Lebanese town of Anjar." Steven R.Weisman"Lebanon Needs to Act
First for Syria to Exit, Envoy Says"NYT 13 Mar 05:-[new info only:] Initially highlights Karami's
difficulty in forming government that can meet with Syria on 07 Apr to arrange final Syrian troop
withdrawal. "Roed-Larsen said [13 Mar] that those negotiations could not proceed without a new,
permanent government established in Beirut. [His] clarifying comments came even as top Bush
officials welcomed his [12 Mar] announcement 'positive' and 'encouraging'. In multiple
appearances on [13 Mar], Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and...national security advisor,
concentrated their comments on Syrian troop presence in Lebanon...'Obviously there are some
positive elements to this'...US would continue to press for'full compliance' with UNSC resolution
that calls for all troops to be removed in time for Lebanon's elections in May...Syria has had
troops in Lebanon since civil war [1990, and] accords that ended civil war also called for
disarming of all militias in conflict. All complied except Hezbollah, militant Shiite party allied with
Syria and Iran...US priorit |