Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

The People's Republic of China has, in recent years, generally stressed the use of "soft"-style comments when dealing with most other countries, including the United States. An exception (particularly in Apr 05) is China's sharp criticism of Japan's unrepentant school descriptions of its tough attacks on China that lasted until 1945, but in general terms there is no prospect of bilateral war - except in economic rivalry. Yet the autonomous democracy that is running the very successful island of Taiwan off the mainland coast constitutes a serious political challenge for the Beijing government. The republic does not respect the latter's authority, and may be moving in the direction of complete - and worldly-noted - independence. Beijing is so concerned about the possible impact on other parts of the PRC, and the government's own global prestige, that the Taiwan regime has been threatened with military attack if it seeks independence. The US's historical ties to the Taiwan regime are such that if a Chinese attack became real or imminent, US forces would come to Taiwan's defence. A resulting battle/war between China and the US is widely viewed as the most serious and sophisticated potential military threat to global stability. Current books on the issue include: Steve Tsang"Peace and Security Across the Taiwan Strait"(Palgrave Macmillan May 04)Hardcover, 236 pp; Richard C. Bush"Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait"(Brookings Institution Press 05)HC & PB, 300pp. The following titles refer to recent articles/essays on this threat. The Associated Press"Taiwan Won't Rule Out China Unification"in New York Times 24 Feb 05; Mark Landler"Europe Wants China Sales but Not Just of Weapons"NYT 24 Feb 05; The Economist 26 Feb 05"China, Japan and America: Keeping Their Balance" (39-40); Joseph Kahn"China Leader Mixes Rhetoric on Taiwan"NYT 05 Mar 05; Reuters"China's Wen Seeks Peace with Taiwan, Stable Economy"NYT 05 Mar 05; AP"China: Keep Taiwan Out of Alliance"NYT 06 Mar 05; Reuters"China Tough on Taiwan But Plays Down Threat to World"NYT 06 Mar 05; AP"China Steps Up Pressure on Taiwan"NYT 08 Mar 05; Joseph Kahn"Beijing Leaders Speak of Force to Keep Taiwan 'Chinese'"NYT 08 Mar 05; Chris Buckly"Taiwan Bitter at China Law on Secession"NYT 09 Mar 05; Financial Times"Secession Law Forces Taipei To Delay Plans"NYT 10 Mar 05; Reuters"China Rejects U.S. Request on Anti-Secession Bill"NYT 10 Mar 05; Reuters"Taiwan Plans Massive Protest Against China Law"NYT 10 Mar 05; Economist 12 Mar 05"China: The House of War?"(43-4); Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Calls for Mass Rally Against China Law"NYT 12 Mar 05; Reuters"China Adopts Anti - Secession Bill, Eye on Taiwan"NYT 13 Mar 05; Adam Segal"US Analysts Increasingly Alarmed about China's Military Modernization"Council on Foreign Relations 16 Mar 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Blasts China Law, Calls for Protest"NYT 16 Mar 05; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Leader Criticizes China"NYT 17 Mar 05; Jim Yardley "Russian Denies War Games With China Are a Signal to Taiwan"NYT 19 Mar 05; AP"Britain: China Threat Complicates Embargo"NYT 20 Mar 05; Reuters"Lifting EU Arms Ban on China a Wrong Signal"NYT 21 Mar 05; Steven R. Weisman"European Union Said to Keep Embargo on Arms to China"NYT 22 Mar 05; Joseph Kahn"Europe's Shift on Embargo Places Taiwan at Center Stage"NYT 23 Mar 05; AP"EU Official Calls China Embargo 'Unfair'"NYT 23 Mar 05; Reuters"Taiwan Urges China to Renounce Force, Repair Ties"NYT 25 Mar 05; Keith Bradsher"Hundreds of Thousands Stage Mass Rally in Taiwan"NYT 26 Mar 05; Reuters"Massive Protest in Taiwan Against China Law"NYT 26 Mar 05; AP"Taiwan Protests China Anti - Secession Law"NYT 26 Mar 05; Reuters"KMT Leader in Beijing, Aims to Ease Taiwan Tension"NYT 30 Mar 05; New York Times"Taiwan Opposition Welcomed in China"NYT 31 Mar 05; Reuters"China Calls for Dialogue with Taiwan"NYT 31 Mar 05; Kenneth Lieberyhal"Preventing a War Over Taiwan"Foreign Affairs Vol 84/No 2(Mar/Apr 05):-Source's Summary:"Although neither China nor Taiwan want war, both pursue policies that raise risk of bloodshed: first by issuing vague warnings, second by testing their limits. To stabilize situation, Bush administration should help broker temporary agreement under which Taipei would put off independence and Beijing stop threatening attack."; Economist 02 Apr 05"Taiwan: Own Goal; Has China Blundered?" (38); Reuters"U.S. Warns EU on China Arms Embargo"NYT 03 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwan President Seeks to Cool China Fever"NYT 06 Apr 05; Jim Yardley and Thom Shanker"Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries"NYT 08 Apr 05; Reuters"China Urges Taiwan to Reverse Ban on Journalists"NYT 12 Apr 05; Richard Bernstein"Europe Moves Away From Lifting China Arms Ban"NYT 14 Apr 05; Reuters "Bush Pressures China on Currency, Taiwan"NYT 14 Apr 05; Richard Bernstein"Europe Urges Linking Lifting of Chinese Arms Ban to Rights"NYT 15 Apr 05; AP "Taiwan Nationalist to Meet Chinese Leader" NYT 20 Apr 05; Reuters"China's Hu Seeks to Allay Fears at Afro - Asia Summit"NYT 21 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader to Visit China"NYT 25 Apr 05; Joseph Kahn"China Tries to Isolate Taiwan's President" NYT 25 Apr 05; Joseph Kahn"Taiwan Opposition Leader Arrives in China for High-Level"NYT 26 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwan Opposition Chief Returns to China, Hundreds Protest"NYT 26 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Arrives in China"NYT 26 Apr 05; AP"China Welcomes Taiwan Opposition Leader"NYT 26 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwanese Official Calls for Peace at Sun Mausoleum"NYT 27 Apr 05; Chris Buckley "Taiwanese, in China, Honors Sun Yat-sen"NYT 27 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Beijing" NYT 28 Apr 05; Reuters"China Communists, Taiwan KMT Set to End Hostilities"NYT 28 Apr 05; AP "Taiwan Opposition Leader Seeks Cooperation"NYT 28 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Lien Urges Political Reform in China"NYT 28 Apr 05; Joseph Kahn"China Warmly Welcomes Taiwan Opposition Leader"NYT 29 Apr 05; Reuters"Leaders of China's Communist Party and Taiwan Opposition Meet"NYT 29 Apr 05; AP "Facts About China-Taiwan Ties"NYT 29 Apr 05:-brief statements/figures on following: Post-1949 Relations; Trade; Investment; Taiwanese in China; Taiwanese Visitors; Taiwanese Studying in China; Military; U.S. Relations; Population; AP"Chinese Leader Meets With Taiwan's Opposition"NYT 29 Apr 05; Reuters "Taiwan Media Praise, Blast Lien - Hu Meeting"NYT 29 Apr 05; Economist 30 Apr 05"Taiwan and China: Popping Home; The Kuomintang's Brief Return to China"(38-9); Joseph Kahn"60 Years Later, China Enemies End Their War"NYT 30 Apr 05; Keith Bradsher "Nationalist Chairman's Visit to Mainland Spurs Taiwanese Interest in Accords"NYT 30 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Birthplace"NYT 01 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Says to Send Message to China"NYT 01 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Grave"NYT 01 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan President's Ally to Carry Message to China" NYT 01 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Secret Message From Taiwan Stirs New Hopes for Accord"NYT 01 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Communication Plan Stirs New Hopes for a Thaw"NYT 02 May 05; AP"Lien Calls for Beijing - Taipei Peace Talks"NYT 02 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Lien Calls for Greater Trade with China"NYT 02 May 05; AP"Taiwan's President Seeks Talks With China"NYT 02 May 05; Keith Bradsher"On Path to China-Taiwan Detente, Strolling Pandas, Perhaps"NYT 03 May 05; AP"Taiwan Would Welcome Visit by China Leader"NYT 03 May 05; Reuters "China Offers Taiwan Pandas, Lien Ends Historic Trip"NYT 03 May 02; AP"China Rebuffs Taiwan Leader's Invitation"NYT 03 May 05; Joseph Kahn"China Raises Hurdle to Taiwan Negotiations"NYT 04 May 05; AP"2nd Taiwan Opposition Chief to Visit China"NYT 04 May 05; Reuters"Pressure Builds On Taiwan's Chen"NYT 04 May 05; AP"Another Taiwan Leader Begins Trip to China"NYT 04 May 05; Reuters"Second Taiwan Opposition Leader Goes to China"NYT 05 May 05; AP "Second Taiwan Opposition Leader in China"NYT 05 May 05; FT"Taiwanese Opposition Leader Vows to Break China Impasse"NYT 05 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Monument"NYT 06 May 05; FT"China Brings 'Panda Diplomacy' to Bear on Taiwan"NYT 06 May 05; Economist 07 May 05"The Transatlantic Relationship: When Javier [Solana] Met Condi [Rice]; They Agreed To Disagree a Little More Amicably About China"(27):-item describes bilateral positions relating to any EU easing of its embargo on arms sales to China with could affect Chinese military capacity against Taiwan and thus any Taiwan defenders; Economist 07 May 05"Taiwan and China: Give Us Your Island; But Here Are Two of Our Pandas"(39); AP"Taiwan Politician Opposes Independence"NYT 08 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Premier Calls For Negotiations With China" NYT 09 May 05; FT"Pakistan and China Agree On New Fighter Jets"NYT 09 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits China"NYT 10 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Opposition Leader in Beijing for Talks" NYT 10 May 05; AP"Taiwan Launches Ninth Bid to Join WHO"NYT 10 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Detains Officer For Leaking Secrets to China"NYT 11 May 05; AP"Taiwan President Draws Fire From Friends" NYT 11 May 05; AP"Taiwan Rounds Up 17 Spy Suspects"NYT 11 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Soong Says Peace With China Only Choice"NYT 11 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Beijing"NYT 11 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Soong Seeks To Break Stalemate With China" NYT 11 May 05; Chris Buckley"China and European Union Discuss Trade Ties and Arms"NYT 12 May 05; Jim Yardley & Chris Buckley"Taiwan Rejects New Language by China as Basis for Talks"NYT 12 May 05; AP"Taiwan Nixes 'Two Sides, One China' Pitch"NYT 12 May 05; Reuters"China Renews Talks Offer, Taiwan Says No"NYT 12 May 05; Reuters "Taiwan Rejects China Offers As Hopes For Talks Dim"NYT 13 May 05; Jim Yardley & Chris Buckley"New Maxim From Beijing, '2 Sides of Strait,' Is Met With a Yawn From Taiwan's President"NYT 13 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Heads To The Polls, China Policy In Focus"NYT 13 May 05; AP"Taiwan Ruling Party Wins Special Election"NYT 14 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Wins Poll, Boost On China Stance"NYT 14 May 05; AP"Taiwan Ruling Party Wins Special Election"NYT 14 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Few in Taiwan Bother to Vote on Constitutional Assembly"NYT 15 May 05; Reuters "Taiwan Backs Chen, But Low Turnout Mars Election"NYT 15 May 05; AP"Taiwan Protests China on Observer Status"NYT 17 May 05; AP"China 'Sincere' About Ties With Vatican"NYT 17 May 05; AP"China 'Sincere' About Ties With Vatican"NYT 17 May 05:-Beijing is trying to replace Taiwan as "China" in formal relations with the Vatican; AP"Taiwan Debates Stance on Rival China"NYT 18 May 05; AP"Pope Reaches Out to Non - Catholics, Chinese"NYT 18 May 05; Reuters"US Overstated China's Military Spending, Study Says"NYT 20 May 05:-article reports that the RAND Corporation "estimated China's military spending totaled $31 billion to $38 billion in 2003, which [RAND] said was the most recent year for which full data was available". Reuters also reports: "The [US] Defense Department may have overestimated China's total spending by more than two-thirds". However, a Defense Department spokesman is reported to have said that it "monitors China's military modernization closely, 'particularly those aspects that are directed at Taiwan'." For direct information from the RAND Corporation see www.rand.org. Reuters"China To Allow Mainlanders To Visit Taiwan - Report"NYT 20 May 05; AP"China Mainland Tourists May Visit Taiwan"NYT 20 May 05; Elisabeth Rosenthal"Hints of Thaw Between China and Vatican"International Herald Tribune in NYT 21 May 05; Economist 21 May 05"Taiwan and China: Muted Celebration"(44-5):-"President Chen downplays talk of better ties with China - but there is hope of making status quo more durable"; Reuters "Taiwan Says 2nd Chinese Ship Enters Its Waters"NYT 24 May 05; Reuters"China Says Bush, Hu To Exchange Visits"NYT 24 May 05:-Relevant extract: "Bush got off to a rocky start with China during his first term, when he...vowed to do'whatever it took'to help Taiwan defend itself."Reuters "Taiwan Denies Reports Of Re - Emergence Of SARS"NYT 25 May 05:-"Taiwan saw world's third-worst outbreak of SARS, which originated in China and killed nearly 800 people."; AP"Beijing, Vatican Appear Eager for Ties"NYT 29 May 05: With Vatican "the last European country with ties to Taiwan,... the figure pushing Beijing to make deal could be unexpected one -- leader of rival Taiwan"; Reuters"Taiwan Faithful Doubt Vatican Will Side With China"NYT 30 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Condemns China Over Peacekeeping In Haiti"NYT 02 Jun 05; AP"Report: Taiwan Test - Fires Cruise Missile"NYT 05 Jun 05; Reuters"Taiwan Poised For Sweeping Constitutional Reforms"NYT 06 Jun 05; Reuters"Taiwan Approves Sweeping Constitutional Reforms"NYT 07 Jun 05; AP"Constitutional Reform Adopted in Taiwan"NYT 07 Jun 05; Reuters"Australia Urges Peaceful Resolution Of Taiwan Issue"NYT 08 Jun 05:-Defense Minister Robert Hill made statement after official meeting in Beijing that "played down Rumsfeld's remarks that Chinese [arms] build-up could threaten peace and stability in Asia." Economist 11 Jun 05"China's Armed forces: Casus Belli"(40-1):-"Is China the new enemy?" Original Bush administration's concern about a potential China threat became more relaxed, but US policy now may be again concerned; AP"Taiwan Upholds Shui - Bian's Victory"NYT 16 Jun 05:-"Supreme Court...upheld Chen Shui-bian's victory in disputed 2004 presidential election"; AP "Taiwan Sends Frigates to Disputed Islands"NYT 21 Jun 05:-islands, also claimed by Japan, have high fisheries capacity; AP"Vatican: Ties With China Not Impossible"NYT 22 Jun 05:-specific issues identified as: Beijing demand that Holy See break relations with Taiwan and Vatican insists appointing and supervising bishops; Joseph Kahn"China's Costly Quest for Energy Control"NYT 27 Jun 05:-while article stresses China's global activities to gain sources of oil, description of Beijing's motive begins:"Shortages of imported oil could threaten China in event of conflict with Taiwan. US, which has said it would defend Taiwan if Chinese were to attack, could potentially block shipping in East China Sea, crippling Chinese trade"; AP"Report: Vatican, China Will Establish Ties"NYT 26 Jun 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Says HK Worse Off Under China Rule"NYT 30 Jun 05; Eduardo Porter"O.K., Japan Isn't Taking Over the World. But China..."NYT 03 Jul 05:-item compares current easing of US fears of Japan's economic power with China's larger but similar potential. Greater concern about China's more belligerent foreign/military role - as seen in its Taiwan policy; Reuters"China, at Odds with Vatican, Arrests Bishop - Group"NYT 05 Jul 05; AP "Taiwan Carries Out Military Maneuvers"NYT 07 Jul 05; The Economist 09 Jul 05"Anthropology: Taiwan, Twinned with Hawaii"(69):-DNA ties the long-term population of Taiwan(now 400,000) to Polynesians and Melanesians across the Pacific, also speaking related languages. [No reference to any new bi-island state based on Hawaii and Taiwan]; Reuters"Taiwan's China - Friendly KMT to Select New Leader"NYT 13 Jul 05; Financial Times"China 'Ready To Use N-Weapons Against US'"NYT 14 Jul 05:-source of Taiwan-related threat is "personal view" of PLA Major-General Zhu Chenghu who is professor at China's National Defence University; Joseph Kahn"Chinese General Threatens Use of A-Bombs if U.S. Intrudes"NYT 15 Jul 05; AP "Chinese General Threatens U.S. Over Taiwan"NYT 15 Jul 05; Reuters"Chinese General Warns U.S. Over Taiwan - Newspaper"NYT 15 Jul 05; Joel Brinkley"U.S. Rebukes Chinese General for His Threat of Nuclear Arms Use"NYT 15 Jul 05; Reuters"China, Firm on Taiwan, Says General's Words His Own"NYT 15 Jul 05; AP"Beijing Downplays General's Nuke Comment"NYT 16 Jul 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Opposition KMT Elects Mayor as New Chief"NYT 16 Jul 05; Reuters"Beijing Hails Taiwan KMT's New Pro - China Boss" NYT 17 Jul 05; Thom Shanker & David E.Sanger"China's Military Geared to Deterring Taiwan, Report Says" NYT 20 Jul 05:-"China is modernizing its military and emphasizing preparations 'to fight and win short-duration, high intensity conflicts' over Taiwan, Pentagon said [19 Jul] with release of its annual report on Chinese military power". Report to Congress entitled "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China" is available via www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d200507/19china.pdf, if you use Adobe Reader 7.0; Chris Buckley"Calling In Envoy, Beijing Assails Pentagon Report"NYT 20 Jul 05; AP "China Denounces U.S. Report On Military"NYT 20 Jul 05; AP"China Affirms 'No First Use' Nuke Policy"NYT 21 Jul 05:-FM Li Zhaoxing said China"will not first use nuclear weapons at any time/under any condition"; Economist 23 Jul 05"US and China: Sizing Up the Dragon"(28):-item includes both how "Pentagon [Report] wonders whether China may threaten more than Taiwan" and how general Zhu [above]"suggested China would engage in a nuclear war with US if it intervenes to defend Taiwan". Taiwan elements: Report says "military build-up appears worryingly at odds with its stated peaceful intentions. China has deployed 650-730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMS) opposite Taiwan and is adding to this arsenal at rate of 100/year. Improvements in China's military capabilities... are helping to shift military balance in Taiwan Strait in China's favour. [M]ain focus of China's military modernization in near term appears... preparation for possible conflict in Taiwan Strait"... For now... Pentagon says China's ability to project conventional military power beyond its periphery remains limited. And even in Taiwan Strait, it does not yet have the military capability to accomplish its political goals."; Economist 23 Jul 05"China and the Kuomintang: The Devil They Know"(39):-"China's leadership, normally sullen in response to democratic developments in Taiwan, reacted gushingly to first contested leadership election in the 110-year history of the KMT, these days the island's main opposition party. The winner, Ma Ying-jeou, is man it feels comfortable with"; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Urges Opposition to Back Arms Deal" NYT 25 Jul 05:-President is seeking support for $15b arms budget, including Patriot anti-missile batteries, diesel-electric submarines, and Orion aircraft; Reuters"China, Vatican Agree on New Bishop, Priest Arrested"NYT 29 Jul 05:-"Vatican reported to have given its blessing to atheist China's choice of a new bishop, second such appointment in as many months in a sign of a thaw in decades-old icy relations". But also report "authorities had beaten up parishioners in... Fujian province who had been trying to prevent arrest of underground RC priest"; Reuters"China Army Says It's Not Expansionist, Warns Taiwan"NYT 01 Aug 05:-defense minister"insisted China was peace-loving nation but warned Taiwan it would never be allowed to formally secede, said People's Daily, Communist Party mouthpiece. 'China will resolutely pursue an independent foreign policy of peace and a defensive national defense policy...(But) we will never allow 'Taiwan independence' splittist forces to cut off Taiwan from the motherland under any name or in any form"; Financial Times"China and Russia Joint Exercises to Strengthen Ties"NYT 02 Aug 05:-"Nearly 10,000 troops to take part in unprecedented joint military exercises by China and Russia [18-25 Aug] aimed at strengthening ties between armed forces of two powers once bitter foes. [E]xercises would be held...in/around Russian... port of Vladivostok and Chinese coastal province of Shandong... Russia is now China's leading source of high-technology weaponry... 'Joint exercises will... help strengthen capability of the two armed forces in jointly striking international terrorism, extremism and separatism',[China's official Xinhua news]agency said. Reference to separatism will heighten concerns about the exercises in Taiwan". AP"Pope Greets Group of Chinese Priests"NYT 03 Aug 05:-"Believed to be first time a pope had publicly welcomed members of the official [Communist Party-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association]at general audience, and was another indication of his efforts to forge better ties with Chinese government... China wants Vatican to drop its recognition of the government of archrival Taiwan"; AP"China Charges Reporter With Spying"NYT 04 Aug 05; Reuters"China Arrests HK Reporter on Spying Charge"NYT 05 Aug 05:-"China formally arrested Hong Kong journalist Ching Cheong on [05 Aug] on a charge of spying for rival Taiwan, the official Xinhua news agency said, the first such case since Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule in 1997.[Agency stated] Ching received millions of Hong Kong dollars from Taiwan's intelligence apparatus and used the money to buy unspecified information on China's political, economic and military affairs between 2000 and 2005"; Keith Bradsher"In Media Crackdown, China Arrests Newspaper Correspondent"NYT 05 Aug 05; Keith Bradsher"China Accuses a Detained Correspondent of Spying for Taiwan"NYT 05 Aug 05:-"Ching is the chief China correspondent of The Straits Times in Singapore. Arrest comes as Chinese government released a long list of new regulations limiting foreign investment in the media - in everything from book publishing to movie production"; Reuters"Taiwan Highlights China Threat in Virtual War Game"NYT 11 Aug 05:-"After holding months of live-fire war games to highlight perceived growing military threat from giant neighbour China, Taiwan's military gave people a taste of virtual war on [11 Aug]... Opposition parties, which hold a slim majority in parliament, have blocked the budget since [Jun 04], saying the weapons are overpriced; AP"U.S. Conducts Military Exercise Off Japan"NYT 11 Aug 05:-"US aircraft battle group, contingent of Marines and dozens of Air Force fighter jets...conducted one of their biggest inter-service exercises of the year off the southern Japanese island of Okinawa... The maneuvers... came on the heels of statements from Pentagon indicating an increased concern over the modernization of China's military..."; Reuters "China Says Taiwan U.N. Bid Again Doomed to Failure"NYT 13 Aug 05:-"Taiwan has tried to join UN every year since 1993" but China has veto power on UNSC "and many more friends in UN than Taiwan"; Chris Buckley"China and Russia Are Set to Begin Joint Military Exercises Thursday"NYT 17 Aug 05:-"hold most ambitious exercises beginning [18 Aug], with naval ships, bombers, fighter planes and 10,000 troops on China's northeast coast for maneuvers... [Exercise intended] to improve ability of China and Russia to thwart terrorism and separatist uprisings on their borders. [However,] display of mutual political trust may be more important than military training involved, specialists in Russian and Chinese relations said... A senior Chinese military officer suggested... exercises intended to bring Russia in to deter US from supporting Taiwan if it moved toward independence and China responded with force... But suggestions that Russia would back China in an attack on Taiwan are far-fetched, Russian analysts said"; AP"China, Russia Conduct Military Exercises"NYT 17 Aug 05:-"Analysts agree Russia and China unlikely to team up against a common foe... Beijing's main focus for now lies on Taiwan... Russian news reports said Beijing had pushed to have the exercise staged closer to Taiwan - making it appear to be a possible rehearsal for an invasion"; Reuters"Russia, China Open First Joint Military Exercises"NYT 17 Aug 05:-"[W]ith the drills ...helping to'strengthen the capacity of the two armed forces in jointly striking international terrorism, extremism and separatism', according to China's Xinhua news agency, they are likely to be viewed with concerns by others in the region. Word separatism will give pause for thought to residents of Taiwan... [W]ar games are more likely to result in a shopping spee than any aggressive posturing"; AP"Russia, China Kick Off Military Exercises"NYT 18 Aug 05:-"Analysts have noted involvement of Russia's Tu-95 strategic bombers and Tu-22M long-range bombers in the exercises... The aircraft are expected to top China's shopping list both to deter US assistance to Taiwan in the event of a conflict and project Chinese strength across the region"; Chris Buckley"China Has Arrested American on Suspicion of Spying for Taiwan"NYT 18 Aug 05:-"China has arrested a Chinese-born American businessman on accusations of spying in what appears to be a deepening investigation into the possibility of Taiwanese espionage on the mainland"; AP"Russia, China: Military Drills Peaceful"NYT 18 Aug 05:-"Chinese Gen. Liang Guanglie denied the moves to strengthen ties between Beijing and Moscow would lead to some kind of military union or the two countries fighting together against a common foe... Liang said exercises... were taking place in the context of 'fight against international terrorism, separatism and extremism'."; AP"Chinese - Russian Military Exercises Begin"NYT 19 Aug 05:-"Top generals from China and Russia sought to reassure the region that exercises weren't directed against anyone. Under the fictional scenario for the exercises, the forces have been given a UN mandate to stabilize a country plunged into violence by ethnic strife"; Reuters"Sino - Russian War Games Move on to China"NYT 20 Aug 05:-"After two days near Russian port of Vladivostok, war games shifted to eastern China's Shandong peninsula where joint manouevres will include combat practice, offshore blockades and ambitious landings, official Xinhua news agency said"; AP"China and Russia Start Second Stage of Military Drills" NYT 20 Aug 05:-"War games are result of warming ties... motivated by growing concern about US dominance of world affairs. China looks to Russia as source of oil/gas... and is spending heavily on high-tech Russian arms to back up its threats to invade rival Taiwan"; AP"Chinese, Russian Troops Join War Games"NYT 23 Aug 05:-"Chinese media have..said the exercises are intended to advertise China's determination to deal with regional terrorist, extremist and separatist threats - the last a likely reference to self-governing Taiwan... US officials have said they are watching the exercises closely and hope they will help support regional stability"; AP"Chinese, Russian Troops Stage Landings"NYT 24 Aug 05:-"Thousands of Chinese and Russian troops launched a mock amphibious landing on a Chinese beach [24 Aug]; AP"China and Russia Wrap Up Military Exercise"NYT 25 Aug 05:-"Chinese and Russian troops wrapped up their first joint military exercise [25 Aug] with a mock invasion by paratroopers on China's east coast... Propaganda leaflets fell from the sky in 'a psychological tactic to shake the enemy's will,' according to Xinhua... Russian media were denied access to Chinese forces"; Reuters"China Toasts War Games with Russia with a Picnic"NYT 26 Aug 05:- China praised its first joint military exercises with Russia on [26 Aug] for lifting relations to an all-time high and opening room for further cooperation... The last event on the schedule was an outside 'family-style lunch'... washed down with beer"; Reuters"Taiwan's Lee, China's Nemesis, May Visit US - Papers"NYT 01 Sep 05:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, whose visit to US in 95 led China to fire missiles into Taiwan Strait, is planning another trip in Oct, newspapers reported"; Reuters "China Warns Against Missile Help for Taiwan"NYT 01 Sep 05:-"China issued veiled warning to US not to protect rival Taiwan through missile defense system just days before President Hu Jintao meets President Bush in Washington. In...policy paper, cabinet also reiterated China's commitment to policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons and pledged not to engage in a nuclear arms race"; Reuters"China Says Committed to Peace but Warns Taiwan"NYT 03 Sep 05:-"China marked 60th anniversary of Japan's WWII defeat on [03 Sep] with reassurance that it was committed to peace, but warned self-ruled Taiwan... against declaring statehood. [President Hu Jintao] said China would continue to modernise to avert foreign bullying. He tipped his hat to Kuomintang, or Nationalist, generals for fighting the invading Japanese - departure from practice of claiming Communists solely responsible for victory. Nationalists lost ensuing civil war in 1949 and fled to Taiwan, where they ruled for five decades until they lost the 2000 presidential elections. Hu warned Taiwan's incumbent leaders against formally declaring the island independent, but stopped short of repeating a longstanding invasion threat"; AP"Pope Invites Chinese Clergy to Vatican"NYT 08 Sep 05:-"Pope named Chinese bishops from both China's state-controlled and unofficial Catholic churches to attend meeting of world's bishops... Also named bishop of Hong Kong and a Taiwanese bishop... Benedict has been reaching out to Beijing, clearly eager to bring China's 12m Catholics under Rome's wing... Remains to be seen if Beijing will allow any of bishops to travel to Rome"; Reuters"Pope Invites Chinese Bishops, Awaits Govt Response"NYT 08 Sep 05:-"Could herald a new phase in strained relations between Vatican and Beijing... China refuses to allow Vatican to appoint its bishops [and] not allow Catholics to recognize authority of Pope... Despite many overtures, Beijing has insisted diplomatic ties cannot be resumed unless Rome severs links with Taiwan... After election, Pope Benedict said he hoped to establish diplomatic relations with countries that still had no formal ties with Vatican, a clear reference to China, only major power not to recognize Pope"; Reuters"China Decries Vatican Invitation to Four Bishops"NYT 10 Sep 05:-"China, which bans its Catholics from recognising the Pope, has turned down Vatican invitation to four Chinese bishops to go to Rome, saying it showed no respect"; AP"Pope's Invitation to Bishops Angers China"NYT 11 Sep 05:-"'Act goes against the original good intention of pope and shows no respect', [official Xinhua News Agency] said, quoting an unidentified spokesman for the Communist Party-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association and Chinese Catholic Bishops College"; Reuters"Taiwan Fails in 13th Annual Bid for U.N. Seat"NYT 13 Sep 05:-"Taiwan failed [14 Sep] for 13th straight year to get a seat at UN, a move that has been blocked annually since 1993 by archrival China and its allies. A committee of UNGA rejected two proposals that question of UN membership for Taiwan be put on agends for UNGA's 60th session... Committee made decision by consensus, with no formal vote"; Joseph Kahn"China Lectured by Taiwan Ally"NYT 23 Sep 05:-"China's leaders may have felt they had no better friend in Taiwan than Li Ao, a defiant and outspoken politician and author who says that Taiwan should unify with Communist China. But when China invited Lo to tour the mainland this week, Communist Party got a taste of its rival's pungent democracy. During an address at Beijing University [22 Sep], broadcast live on a cable TV network, Li chided China's leaders for suppressing free speech, ridiculed the university administration's fear of academic debate and advised students how to fight for freedom against official repression... Li does not have high profile in Taiwanese politics, but he has an outsize reputation among intellectuals in China for his prolific writings - he has written nearly 100 books - and his fervent belief that Taiwanese should be proud to be part of greater China... When Taiwan became a democracy, he attacked those who supported separatism"; AP"Chinese Commission New Class of Warships"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"China's navy has commissioned first in new class of domestically designed/built warships, official media reported... Missile frigate Wenzhou...representing China's most advanced... The ships are designed to operate far out at sea, part of...a 'blue water' navy intended to assert Chinese claims to Taiwan and other territories and protect sea lanes transporting vital natural resources"; AP"China Launches Major War Games"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"China has vigorously stepped-up training of its 2.5 million-member armed forces in past five years, focusing on Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims as its own territory. With the settling of border disputes with Russia and Central Asian states, Beijing has been able to save money and manpower formerly deployed on its northern and eastern flanks and focus on its coastal regions"; Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: China's New Internet Restrictions"via NYT 29 Sep 05:-China tightened its already stringent regulations on Internet content this week. Statement 25 Sep from Ministry of Information Industry banned 'subversive' material - including pornography, criticism of government, and sensitive topics like Tibet and Taiwan independence - from the country's computer networks. Instead, only 'healthy, civilized news and information beneficial to the nation' can be posted, ministry said. It is already a crime in China to defame government agencies, divulge state secrets, or promote separatist movements"; Reuters"Time Running Out as Taiwan Wrings Hands Over US Arms"NYT 02 Oct 05:-"Taiwan...parliament agonizes over a huge US weapons package seen as critical in maintaining balance of power with China and Washington... in frustration. Failure to approve $11b budget for submarines/anti-submarine aircraft would seriously erode self-ruled island's defense capabilities/jeopardize security, analysts say... Many security analysts see Taiwan Strait as one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints. 'Within decade, Taiwan would be incapable of mounting any kind of credible defense, and island would become nothing more than a security protectorate of US', said defense analyst. Taiwan's opposition parties, which favor closer ties with China and hold razor-thin majority in parliament, prevented special arms deal... for 30th time this week. Delay has fueled worries in Washington that Taipei not serious about its own defense and US officials... increasing vocal about displeasure. Senior US official recently warned Taiwan that Washington may not come to Taiwan's aid if island cannot defend itself... China, with world's largest standing army at 2.5m troops, has deployed 650-730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles/375,000 ground forces opposite Taiwan, has 700+ aircraft within range and modernizing its longer-range ballistic missile force, Pentagon says... For its part, Taiwan has 300,000 soldiers and about 340 advanced F-16, Mirage and IDF fighters, but it maintains a qualitative edge by possessing three times as many fourth-generation fighters as China... Even though budget has been slashed from $18b to $15b and finally to $11b since last year, opponents said advanced weapons still too expensive and unnecessarily provocative, giving little - if any - indication bill would be passed any time soon... Some analysts said Washington, as well as Taiwan's ruling party, must face political reality and be willing to make further compromise - if necessary"; Reuters"Taiwan President Offers to Brief MPs on Arms Deal"NYT 06 Oct 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, under pressure from [US] to pass arms package blocked by opposition lawmakers, offered [06 Oct] to deliver a report in parliament to seek support for $11b special budget. Unprecedented for president to present policy in parliament. Under Taiwan's complicated political system, president is head of state who appoints a premier, who in turn delivers government policies to parliament... 'I am willing to personally deliver a report on arms deal that is related to national security and cross-Strait peace in parliament', Chen told forum attended by parliament speaker.. and...chairman of main opposition Nationalist Party (Kuomintang"); Reuters"Former Taiwan President to Visit United States"NYT 07 Oct 05:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, whose last US visit in 1995 led China to fire missiles into Taiwan Strait, will travel to US next week, officials said. Visit by 82-year-old former president - venerated by some as father of Taiwan democracy and leading advocate of independence - is likely to upset China"; Reuters"Taiwan President Sees No Rush for China Talks"NYT 07 Oct 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian declared [07 Oct] he would not be rushed into talks with China, saying it was vital to preserve island's sovereign status... Chen said in interview 'I want to strive for delays while not fearing talks'... He added he would not allow Taiwan to follow Hong Kong model, whereby former British colony became Special Administrative Region of China in 1997. China has promised Taiwan more autonomy than Hong Kong if it accepted Beijing's authority... Chen denied his stance was inflammatory, saying he believed in 'reconsiliation without flinching'. He said he wanted 'to hold a firm stance without becoming confrontational'... He said there was no need to declare independence because facts already proved Taiwan was a country. 'It's a reality. It's the status quo. If we do not ourselves acknowledge we are a sovereign, independent country, if even we don't have confidence in Taiwan being sovereign, independent country, how can we seek support from world?' he said... Only 26 states, including Vatican and Panama, now recognize Taipei. Chen accused opposition leaders...and said their [Beijing visits] were tantamount to surrender... Chen, who must leave office in 2008, said part of his legacy would be to make world see situation between Beijing and Taipei in different way ... Using island's official name, he continued:'The Republic of China in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China on the mainland are not the same. They are under divided rule and do not exercise jurisdiction on each other'"; Economist 08 Oct 05"Taiwan and America: Still Waiting"(52):-"When George Bush took office in 2001, he made two bold commitments to Taiwan. First was his declaration to do 'whatever it takes' to help defend the Asian democracy, presumably against a China that claims the territory for its own. Second was to offer a package of advanced weapons, including submarines and anti-missile batteries, with which Taiwanese could boost their defensive capacities. Four years on, there is no sign of these weapons arriving, since Taiwan has not approved a budget for them. Bush administration is getting impatient"; Reuters"Chen Says It's Up to Taiwan to Defend Itself"NYT 10 Oct 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian highlighted China's military expansion to drum up support for arms package in National Day speech [10 Oct], warning that self-ruled island cannot count on others to defend it. Speaking to thousands attending festivities, Chen expressed frustration at opposition's bid to block $11b special arms budget seen as crucial to prevent imbalance of military power in area... 'We cannot expect to rely on others for Taiwan's own self-defense. Instead, we must shoulder responsibilities to build up sufficient national defense, psychological defense and civil defense', he said... Taiwan's main opposition party [says arms deal] is over-expensive, provocative and unnecessary"; AP"China Warns Canada on Taiwan Trade Bill"NYT 12 Oct 05:-"China warned [non-governmental/unlikely] bill before Canadian parliament, calling for formal trade and cultural ties with Taiwan, could [hurt] ties between Ottawa and Beijing. [I]ssue creating tensions as Canada and China move toward building much stronger trade ties"; Reuters "China to Mark Taiwan Return From Japan for 1st Time"NYT 13 Oct 05:-"China, asserting its claim to Taiwan, will for first time mark anniversary of island's return to Chinese rule [25 Oct]. Communist China has so far never celebrated anniversary because doing so would complicate its claim that Communist Red Army, not Nationalists, won eight-year war against Japan [in 1945]... Anniversary celebrated in Taiwan,... though President Chen... has played it down in recent years... China-Taiwan relations have thawed this year following visits by Taiwan opposition politicians, opening of mainland air space to Taiwan airlines and Beijing's promises to give Taipei pandas"; Reuters"Lee Set to Promote Taiwan Independence on US Trip"NYT 15 Oct 05:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui heads to Washington this week to pedal his vision of an independent Taiwan, aiming to draw international attention to China's military threats against his island... Fiercely pro-independence Lee is set to further irk China by touring US capital [and visit US lawmakers on Capitol Hill] just as US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld visits Beijing. [China] had briefly downgraded ties with Washington and froze what had been warming semi-official talks with Taipei... Washington said Lee is on a private visit. While in US, Lee is expected to promote a pro-independence movement to formalize Taiwan's de facto sovereignty by changing island's official name to Republic of Taiwan - a move China has warned could lead to war"; Thom Shanker"Gingerly, U.S. and China Plan to Strengthen Military Ties"NYT 19 Oct 05:-"Defense Secretary Donald H.Rumsfeld and the Chinese leadership agreed [19 Oct] to strengthen military ties, even as Rumsfeld said China needed to clarify its regional military goals and his Chinese counterpart rejected Pentagon assessments that Beijing understated its military spending... Rumsfeld became first foreigner to visit HQ of China's strategic missile fleet... According to US officials, missile forces commander told Rumsfeld that China would not be first to use nuclear weapons, but would use them only in self-defense. Statement was interpreted by Pentagon officials as repudiation of comments by another Chinese general [14 Jul 05 above] that any attack on China by US forces responding to a Taiwan crisis might result in nuclear retaliation. Rumsfeld was also told that China's nuclear missile fleet not currently aimed at any other nation... President Hu Jintao said improving military cooperation would percolate across both governments and benefit broader relationship between the nations. President Bush to visit China next month. Hu said talks with Rumsfeld would 'help the military forces of our two countries to better enhance their mutual understanding and friendship'. This military relationship, Hu said, 'will also play important facilitating role in promoting growth of our relationship as a whole'. Rumsfeld said US and China would benefit from more naval visits and educational exchanges 'to demystify' how the two nations view each other"; Reuters"Rumsfeld Urges Chinese Clarity on Missile Build-Up"NYT 20 Oct 05:-"China needs to provide wary neighbours a clear explanation of its missile build-up, Rumsfeld said [20 Oct], final day of visit to Beijing. Rumsfeld told Chinese strategic experts... that Pentagon believed China was expanding reach of its arsenal of ballistic missiles to cover most of the world... '[A] number of countries with interests in the region are asking questions about China's intentions', he added... On [19 Oct], Rumsfeld and senior Pentagon officials emerged from talks with Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan and other generals citing what they called welcome signs of a cautious opening by the secretive People's Liberation Army... Cao disputed US assertions that China understates its military spending, saying the $30.2 billion figure China published this year was the true budget... [Pentagon] report said China added about 100 missiles/yearto arsenal of 650-730 short-range missiles pointed at rival Taiwan and was fielding missiles capable of reaching nearly all of US... Rumsfeld and Cao to work to boost military educational exchanges"; Thom Shanker"Rumsfeld Tells China Its Military Buildup Worries Neighbours"NYT 20 Oct 05:-"Defense Secretary Rumsfeld concluded visit to Beijing [20 Oct] with unusual round table with Chinese officers about the two countries' military abilities and intentions. Rumsfeld told students and faculty members at Academy of Military Sciences that China's neighbours worried about its decisions to expand its missile forces, and to increase their range... 'Enabling those forces to reach many areas of world well beyond Pacific region', he said.'Those advances...raise questions, particularly when imperfect understanding of such developments on part of others'. He said other nations had a right to question... One Chinese officer rejected Rumsfeld's critique that Beijing's military budget remained a mystery, saying that increases were required to modernize Chinese forces after years of inadequate spending"; Esther Pan"Q&A: China's Military Threat"Council on Foreign Relations via NYT 24 Oct 05:-analysis offers views of experts on following questions:"What's the current strength of China's military? What military threats does China face? Is China becoming more assertive militarily? What is China's diplomatic policy? What are Taiwan's concerns? What are Japan's concerns? What about Russia? What about Southeast Asia? How should US handle China's military rise?"; AP"China Marks End of Japan Rule Over Taiwan" NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Chinese leaders held official ceremony, while state press called for Taiwan to unite... In commemorations marking 'recovery of Taiwan from Japanese occupation' 25 Oct 45, Beijing has sought to play up island's historical connection to mainland... People's Daily declared in front-page editorial: 'Taiwan has never been a country but is instead inalienable part of Chinese territory'. It called on Chinese people on both sides to work toward unification"; Reuters"China Seeks "Revival" as It Marks Return of Taiwan"NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Beijing, asserting claim to self-ruled Taiwan, called for national 'revival' as it marked 60th anniversary of island reverting to Chinese rule, first major commemoration of the event in five decades"; Reuters"Vatican Lists Conditions for Ties with China"NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Pope Benedict's top diplomat said Holy See was always ready to end relations with Taiwan and return its embassy to Beijing but that China must respect religious freedom and treat Vatican fairly"; AP"Vatican Urges End to Tensions With China"NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Holy See hopes tensions between Catholic Church and China will end soon, Vatican's secretary of state was quoted as saying... [O]fficial [said Holy See ready for dialogue and contacts"; Reuters"US Approves $280 Mln Missile Sale to Taiwan"NYT 26 Oct 05:-"US Defense Department on [26 Oct] notified Congress it had approved sale to Taiwan of 10 AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles and 5 AIM-7M Sparrow missiles - both built by Raytheon Co. Proposed sale... also included continuation of pilot training program and logistics support for F-16 aircraft, as well as associated equipment and services"; Reuters "China Sends Top Tourism Officials to Taiwan"NYT 28 Oct 05:-"China's top official in charge of tourism began 10-day visit to Taiwan, fuelling hopes trip could open floodgates for Chinese tourists to visit island... While Taiwan government has said no official negotiation will take place during tour, hopes are high it can be major step toward ushering in Chinese tourists - a potent economic force, as evident in nearby Hong Kong... China has restricted visits by its citizens to Taiwan since 1949... Limited number of mainlanders are now able to travel to Taiwan, mostly on business. Beijing first offered to let mainland tourists visit Taiwan in May and called for negotiations with Taipei on details. Taiwan has its own tough rules restricting mainland visitors and bans direct air links on grounds of national security"; AP"Chinese Tourism Official Visits Taiwan"NYT 28 Oct 05:-"Senior Chinese tourism official begen key visit to Taiwan [28 Oct] that could help revive island's bealeagured tourism sector and ease tensions between longtime rivals... Director of China's State Administration of Tourism was to inspect Taiwanese tourist facilities at head of 66-member delegation... But...Taiwan's government will have to agree to opening doors to visitors... While more than 1m Taiwanese visits to mainland in 2004, visits by Chinese to Taiwan have been severely limited, ostensibly because of Taiwanese concerns over potential spies or saboteurs... However,... heavy pressure from Taiwan's beleaguered tourism industry... World Tourism Organization estimates that number of Chinese traveling overseas will soar from current 10m/year to 50m by 2010, and to 100m by 2020, making China leading source of tourists worldwide"; Reuters"Taiwan Ready to Discuss Air Charters with China"NYT 04 Nov 05:-"Taiwan said ready to talk to China about allowing direct charter flights ahead of the peak Lunar New Year travel season in early 2006, a day after an invitation by Beijing. But island's top China policy-making body... said it would prefer to discuss opening of direct cargo and passenger charters on a regular basis as well, and urged Beijing to be flexible... Despite often testy ties, Taiwan companies are estimated to have invested over US$100b in China since 1980s. Estimated 1m of Taiwan's people, or 5% of its population, work or live in China and must normally transit through places such as Hong Kong when traveling between the two sides, adding at least 4 hours to their journeys. Direct air links would be latest in a series of developments, from visits to mainland by Taiwan opposition politicians to Beijing's promises to give Taipei two endangered pandas, that have thawed relations between the two sides this year"; AP"Taiwan Mulls Expansion of Charter Flights"NYT 04 Nov 05:-"Taiwan considering expanding charter flights to rival China for upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, in latest sign of improved commercial relations between longtime adversaries... While commercial ties between island and mainland have boomed over past 15 years,... Taiwan opposes commercial flights, ostensibly for security reasons. Earlier this year, China renewed a proposal to raise number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan to 360,000/year - more than 10 times current level... Heavy pressure from Taiwan's tourism industry, which views Chinese market as a key element in its future growth"; Reuters"China Tourism Chief Seeks Taiwan Talks - Paper"NYT 05 Nov 05:-"China's top tourism official has invited Taiwan industry representatives to visit to discuss Chinese tourists traveling to island, fuelling hopes of a possible flood of tourism dollars from the mainland, newspaper said... Independence-leaning government of President Chen Shui-bian cautiously welcomed Beijing's previous offer, saying island could accommodate 1,000 Chinese tourists/day, and might allow the tourists to stay for up to 10 days... Some analysts estimate Chinese tourists can add at least $660m or 0.2%, to Taiwan's $330b economy. However tourism accounts for less than 3% of economy"; AP "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"NYT 16 Nov 05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader [, raising even more concern in Taiwan], and terrorism is flaring up all over the region. But at US's major Asian outposts, some serious downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its 32,500-strong force in Korea over next 3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand over major elements of troops' mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000 US troops are stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa... An analyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea are in line with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops. Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing"; David E.Sanger"Bush , in Japan, Suggests That China Expand Freedoms"NYT 16 Nov 05:-"President Bush planned to open his tour of Asia [16 Nov] with carefully couched warning to China's leaders, telling them they are finding 'once the door to freedom is opened even a crack, it cannot be closed'... Speech...stopped well short of prescribing to Chinese a future course... But coming just 3 days before Bush lands in Beijing, speech implicitly urges China's leaders to follow path of Japan, South Korea and - in a comparison senior administration officials said they knew would annoy Beijing - Taiwan, which Bush called 'free and democratic and prosperous'... Japanese PM Koizumi asked Bush whether he was urging China to follow Taiwan's path to a Chinese-style democracy. He did not answer directly, but said, 'What I say to the Chinese is that a free society is in your interest'. He then repeated that his one-China policy - calling for peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan - was unchanged... In his discussion of North Korea, Bush makes only briefest reference to country's 'pursuit of nuclear weapons'... He said 'we will not forget the people of North Korea', declaring that '21st century will be freedom's century for all Koreans'... He did not repeat his past characterization of Kim Jong Il, North's leader, as a tyrant... President's characterization of China...closely scrutinized... At issue is how US should treat President Hu's claims that China's ambition is simply for 'peaceful rise' to superpower status... Bush did not use words 'strategic competitor' to describe China, a phrase he often reached for during his 2000 presidential campaign and in early days of his first term"; Economist 19 Nov 05"China and the West: Meeting the Superpower"(Edit.11-2):-offers variety of advice that is felt relevant to US President's visit. Its essence is: "George Bush should treat China as an opportunity, not just a threat". Following parts are those relevant to US concern about Taiwan: "China may not be another Evil Empire, but it is still a repressive one-party state: can it be changed, or must it merely be made room for? Will what China has termed its 'peaceful rise' really be that, or could it become more confrontation? This debate has long obsessed China's neighbours, notably Taiwan... Bush needs to balance two sometimes competing imperatives. First is to continue to use US muscle to encourage China's leaders to behave better towards their neighbours... China needs to be talked out of its missile build-up opposite Taiwan... Regime does, after all, sometimes listen. When its National People's Congress passed resolution in [Mar 05] threatening Taiwan with invasion, ensuing outcry in the West destroyed Hu's hopes of the arms embargo - imposed on China after the Tiananmen massacre of 1989 - being lifted in Europe. Since then, China has courted Taiwan's politicians - albeit the opposition ones - and toned down its attacks on its president, even though it abhors his support for the island's independence... Second imperative is for US to find way to work harmoniously alongside China that is just beginning to find its way as a great power"; Economist 19 Nov 05"China's World Order: Aphorisms and Suspicions"(23-5):-Special Report also covers many US interests in China since:"As George Bush goes to China, the world's two biggest powers continue nervously to appraise each other's ambitions". Following are Taiwan-related portions: "China, as an emerging power at odds with US ideology, would be a beneficiary of a world order in which US power is constrained... Just as US is hedging its relationship with China by maintaining a strong military presence in Asia, so China is trying to strengthen its relationships in Asia and farther afield. This is at least partly a precaution against encirclement by a string of US bases around Asia... and an enhancement in recent years of US security ties with Japan and Taiwan. China has no bases abroad [but in Aug 05] China and Russia staged their first joint military manoeuvres since the cold war. 'Peace Mission 2005', billed as a counter-terrorist exercise, looked far more like preparation for a Chinese assault on Taiwan... China came close last year to driving a wedge between US and EU. Much to US consternation, the Europeans appeared to be moving towards accepting China's demand that they lift their embargo on arms sales to China, which was imposed in the wake of the Tiananmen Square killings of 1989. US feared this would give China access to military technologies that could be used in conflict with US in Taiwan Strait ...Latest annual report by US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, bipartisan US congressional panel of usually gloomy cast,... refers to 'growing volume and credibility' of Chinas threats against Taiwan ... No sign US remonstrations have persuaded China to put brakes on its military build-up on coast facing Taiwan - estimated by Pentagon to include deployment of between 650 and 730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles, with the number increasing by around 100 each year. But there are plenty of signs that China has little interest in resolving Taiwan issue militarily and that it regards its extensive economic ties with Taiwan as hugely important. Assuming Taiwan does not declare formal independence - a step that US would do its utmost to deter Taiwan from taking - China appears ready to live with status quo of Taiwan that is, in effect, independent already. China's growing military capability by no means gives it confidence that a military strike would help it achieve durable political control in Taiwan at a sustainable diplomatic and economic cost... Bush made sharp remarks about Taiwan's 'free and democratic society'... but his officials have focused on trade issues rather than security matters" (see Economist 19 Nov 05"Tensions With China: The New Face of Globalisation"(27-8); Council on Foreign Relations"Q&A: The Dispute Brtween China and Taiwan" via NYT 22 Nov 05:-analysis offers factual answers to following questions: What is the state of China-Taiwan relations? What is the history of the conflict? What is the U.S. position? What is the impetus behind independence for Taiwan? What has China been doing? What are the next steps? What are Taiwan's security concerns? Many elements of the current situation were provided by David Kang, an Asia expert and visiting professor at Stanford University. "Kang points out a military invasion of Taiwan by China is highly improbable. 'That's the least likely scenario', he says. 'You can have a military dispute that's far short of all-out war'"; AP"Taiwan Opposition Wins Local Elections"NYT 03 Dec 05:-"Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party won overwhelming victory in island-wide municipal elections [03 Dec], putting it in position to push its agenda of reunification with China during 2008 presidential campaign... Nationalist candidates or Nationalist allies won 17 of the 23 constituencies, while candidates of President Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party were assured of victory in six... Results constituted huge vote of confidence in Nationalist Party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, elected to office five months ago. Likely will lead party's ticket in 2008 presidential poll. Nationalists' policy is eventual reunification with rival China... Campaign has been marked by widespread allegations of vote buying and fraud"; Reuters"Taiwan's Ruling Party Loses Local Elections"NYT 03 Dec 05:-"Taiwan's main opposition party trounced ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) in local government elections in what analysts view as no confidence vote in President Chen Shui-bian. Nationalists (Kuomintang or KMT) won 50.96% of votes, giving them 14 out of 23 county and city magistrate posts across island. DPP won 41.95% of votes and grabbed six seats. Remaining three seats went to KMT allies. 'Today's election outcome is a major defeat for our party. It's a stern warning to DPP from Taiwan's people', sadi DPP Chairman... Election loss is likely to weaken Chen's mandate in remainder of his presidency... In KMT camp, opposition party leaders celebrated their first landslide election victory since losing two successive presidential races to Chen in 2000 and 2004"; Reuters"Hard Road Seen for Taiwan's Chen After Elections"NYT 04 Dec 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is in danger of becoming a lame duck for the remaining 2-years of his term after his party's crushing defeat in local government elections, political commentators said [04 Dec]. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party(DPP), damaged by a corruption scandal, won just six of 23 mayoral and county magistrate posts in [03 Dec] polls, with the rest going to opposition National Party(KMT) and its allies. Analysts say a chastened DPP may make some concessions, such as agreeing to business sector's demand for lower trade and investment barriers with China, but more decisive policy moves may take a back seat to cleaning house and dealing with an emboldened opposition... President has been under pressure to reconcile with China and improve economic ties with the mainland, Taiwan's biggest export market, where the island's companies are estimated to have poured in over $100b in investments"; David S.Cloud"Navy to Expand Fleet With New Enemies in Mind"NYT 03 Dec 05:-"[US] Navy wants to increase its fleet.., reversing years of decline in naval shipbuilding and adding dozens of warships designed to defeat emerging adversaries, [US] officials say... While increasing fleet size is popular [in] Congress, plan faces various obstacles, including questions about whether affordable...and whether the mix of vessels is suitable to deal with emerging threats, like China's expanding navy... [F]leet reached its cold war peak... in 1987 and... steadily shrinking since then... 'Navy appears... grappling with need to balance funding for supporting its role in the global war on terrorism against those for meeting a potential challenge from modernized Chinese maritime military forces', said a naval analyst. [P]lan calls for building 55 small, fast vessels called littoral combat ships, which are being designed to allow Navy to operate in shallow coastal areas where mines and terrorist bombings are a growing threat. Costing less than $300m, littoral combat ship is relatively inexpensive... Choices have led some analysts to suggest Navy is de-emphasizing threat from China, at least in early stages of the shipbuilding plan. Beijing's investment in submarines, cruise missiles and other weapon systems expected to pose major threat to US warships for at least a decade... 'This is not a fleet that is being oriented to Chinese threat', said an analyst. 'It's being oriented around irregular warfare, stability operations and dealing with rogue states'"; Reuters"Taiwan Chen's Approval Rating Falls to All - Time Low"NYT 05 Dec 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's popularity has fallen to lowest level since took office five years ago, newspaper poll showed... United Daily News reported [05 Dec] that survey showed Chen's approval rating falling to 21%, down from 25% in Oct. Chen enjoyed 79% support in Jun 00, month after he took office"; Reuters"China Extends Reporter's Detention: Straits Times"NYT 10 Dec 05:-"Singapore's newspaper said Chinese authorities had extended the detention of its chief correspondent in China, who was arrested earlier this year on charges of spying for Taiwan. Ching Cheong first detained in Apr in Southern China, and formally arrested in Aug... So far, all requests for a lawyer to meet with Ching have been turned down, paper said"; Reuters"China Bids Farewell to Top Negotiator with Taiwan"NYT 30 Dec 05:-"Hundreds of people turned out [30 Dec] for funeral of China's top negotiator with Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, but envoys from the self-ruled island's government were conspicuous by their absence. Wang Daihan, president of the semi-official Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, died... at age of 90. His replacement has yet to be named... The only direct contact between Beijing and Taipei around the funeral came through letters exchanged between Wang's association and its Taiwan counterpart, the Straits Exchange Foundation, which handles Taiwan's relations with China in the absence of official ties... In the end, Taiwan government said it would not send any officials to the funeral, but China's official Xinhua news agency said representatives of Taiwan opposition parties... will attend... Fence-minding dialogue between Beijing and Taipei has been frozen since 1999"; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Signals Tighter Policy Toward China"NYT 31 Dec 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian signaled a tightening stance toward China... as he warned his people of investment risks in the mainland and growing military ambition by the island's political foe. Defying expectations that he would take a more conciliatory approach to mend ties, Chen said the government would assume the role of a gatekeeper to guard Taiwan's economic security... Analysts said Chen's comments were likely to pour cold water on the financial markets, which have been betting on closer economic and trade links across the narrow Taiwan Strait... Underscoring China's threat, Chen said People Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed 784 ballistic missiles targetted at the island and set up a 3-stage war plan against Taiwan. PLA aims to establish contingency-response combat capabilities by 2007, build up combat capabilities for large-scale military engagement by 2010 and to ensure victory in a decisive battle by 2015, Chen said... In a move sure to anger Beijing, Chen said the island could hold a referendum on the new constitution by 2007 if conditions become mature. Beijing sees Chen's constitutional re-engineering project as a provocative step toward formal statehood"; AP"Taiwan Leader Still Plans Referendum"NYT 01 Jan 06:-"President Chen... pledged to push... for a new constitution for Taiwan in his last two years in office despite warnings from China and growing domestic opposition. Chen's remarks appeared to crush expectations that he might give in to mounting domestic pressure to reconcile with rival China following his party's setback in 03 Dec municipal elections... Chen has claimed that the proposed constitution is aimed at creating a political system that befits the island, not to prepare for formal independence. But Beijing continues to distrust the independence-leaning Taiwanese leader... Chen indicated he would not be pressured to remove barriers on trade and investment with China... Despite political tensions, trade has boomed between the two sides. Taiwanese businesses have poured more than $100b into China and they want Taipei to end a ban on direct transportation links with the mainland"; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Chief Seeks More Arms, Not Better Ties to China"NYT 02 Jan 06:-"President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan called [01 Jan] for increased arms purchases and warned against greater economic ties to mainland China, in TV speech that silenced months of speculation that he might soon seek to improve relations across Taiwan Strait. Speech was Chen's first major policy address since his Democratic Progressive Party fared badly in islandwide elections. His party favors greater political independence from mainland... Chen made clear... that Taiwanese policy had not changed fundamentally. He used several politically charged phrases that appeal to independence advocates ... He also urged legislature to approve his long-stalled plans to buy more weapons from US and raised again possibility of referendum to rewrite Constitution... He was particularly emphatic in warning of risk posed by rapid modernization of PLA on mainland, especially its heavy investments in missiles that can reach Taiwan... 'Taiwan must not rest its faith on chance or harbor any illusions', he said. Beijing had no immediate reaction... Speech seemed to emphasize shoring up support for hard-line supporters of independence... President referred as many as 70 times to the island as Taiwan instead of its legal name, Republic of China... Island's Constitution still states that Republic of China has jurisdiction over all of China, including the mainland, but President Chen has shifted away from this in his own comments for years... One common worry in Taiwan involves growing economic dependence on the mainland and the extent to which the mainland economy now dwarfs Taiwan's. China's economy is expanding more than twice as fast as Taiwan's and is now six times the size of Taiwan's"; Reuters"Reporter Held in China 'Likely to Face Trial': Wife"NYT 05 Jan 06:-"Case of a Singapore reporter held in China and accused of spying for Taiwan has been passed to prosecution and his wife said it was likely he would face trial, South China Morning Post reported. Ching Cheong... held in Apr 05 in southern China and formally arrested in Aug, one of a series of detentions of Chinese reporters that have stoked international criticism of China's controls on media... Xinhua news agency said last year Ching received millions of HK dollars from Taiwan's intelligence apparatus and used the money to buy unspecified information on China's political, economic and military affairs 2000-05"; AP"China to Offer Two Pandas to Rival Taiwan"NYT 06 Jan 06:-"China said it has picked a pair of pandas to offer to rival Taiwan as part of efforts to boost public support for uniting with communist mainland. Taiwan, however, accused Beijing of acting rudely by announcing the gift without consulting the island... Beijing announced offer in May 05 when two Taiwanese opposition leaders visited mainland in island's highest-level trip since the two sides split in 1949 amid civil war... But Taiwanese officials reacted coolly to Chinese announcement... Beijing has been trying to isolate Taiwan's independence-leaning President Chan Shui-bian, forging ties with his political rivals and wooing farmers and other voters by offering concessions such as tariff cuts on imported Taiwanese fruit... Beijing also is lobbying Taiwan to drop its ban on direct air and shipping links between the two sides. Taipei has been reluctant to do so for fear of domination by its giant neighbour"; Reuters"China Military 'Lean, Responsive' After Cutbacks"NYT 09 Jan 06:-"China's military has cut back its troops by 200,000, the official mouthpiece of People's Liberation Army [PLA] said on 09 Jan, reinforcing its high-tech military ambitions to overtake rival Taiwan... China had 2.5m serving military in 2003 when the cuts started... After cutbacks, proportion of military serving in infantry had fallen to an 'historic low', while share in navy, air force and Second Artillery Corps - which maintains China's nuclear missiles - had risen, paper said. Paper also said 'high-tech' forces had increased. China has asserted developing or buying several advanced weapons, including surveillance satellites, missiles and 'blue water' naval vessels and submarines. Military analysts say many of innovation were intended to reinforce China's military threat against Taiwan,.. and counter US military dominance in Asia-Pacific region. China, which many analysts believe still lacks military strength for decisive action against Taiwan, has said it will not rule out war if Taiwan pushes for formal independence"; AP"Oohs and Aahs and a Nah"NYT 10 Jan 06:-"Taiwan's premier, Frank Hsieh, said the island was unlikely to accept the offer of two pandas from China because doing so could 'compromise our sovereignty'... Pictures of the year-old bears were featured prominently in the local new media, capturing the hearts of many Taiwanese. But Hsieh said China would have to comply with international wildlife rules, with Taiwan signing as the importing country. 'China could not possibly agree to recognize Taiwan as a country', he said"; Reuters"Taiwan's Ex - President Lee May Visit Japan"NYT 11 Jan 06:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui wants to travel to Japan in May, a [Japanese] newspaper reported, and Chief Cabinet Secretary... said [Japanese] government would decide appropriately on whether to admit him. Any such visit would likely annoy China... Japan...has working, non-governmental ties with Taiwan... [Newspaper] said Japan would decide whether to issue Lee a tourist visa after confirming whether he would refrain from political activities"; Reuters"China Hijacker of Plane to Taiwan Freed on Parole"NYT 12 Jan 06:-"Chinese hijacker who used a fake gun to divert a plane to self-ruled Taiwan has been released on parole for good behaviour after serving more than a dozen years in prison, [China] media reported... It was one of a rash of hijackings in China in early 1990s, mostly by disgruntled people seeking asylum in Taiwan, some in the hope of cash rewards... He spent over six years behind bars on the island... before he was released and deported to China in 2001... A Chinese court gave [him] an additional 13 years in jail. But he ended up serving less than four because he was such a determined worker, newspaper said"; Reuters"Taiwan Premier Quits in Expected Cabinet Shuffle"NYT 17 Jan 06:-"President Chen Shui-bian said [17 Jan] he had accepted resignation of Premier Frank Hsieh in a long-expected cabinet reshuffle after ruling party's crushing defeat in Dec local government elections. Under Taiwan's political system, democratically elected president appoints premier who forms cabinet and runs day-to-day government. Chen is head of the military and sets policy toward China... Taiwan media have speculated Chen will appoint his popular former chief of staff, Su Tseng-chang, in a bid to shore up his own poor approval rating... Su quit as chairman of DPP to take responsibility for election loss, but many voters/analysts still see him as strong DPP candidate for 2008 presidential race... Premier has faced many policy obstructions in parliament, which is dominated by KMT alliance holding slim majority of legislative seats. Hsieh will step down after less than a year in office... Analysts say deep mistrust between ruling and opposition parties and ideological differences over Taiwan's ties with China make a coalition government highly unlikely"; AP"Taiwan's President Appoints New Premier"NYT 18 Jan 06:-"Taiwan's president appointed [Su Tseng-chang], a popular politician and former party chief, as the island's next premier... in a move aimed at regaining support for the ruling party ahead of 2008 presidential election... [Su] has won widespread plaudits for his indefatigable efforts on behalf of DPP candidates during the campaign, and is viewed by many as ruling party's most likely presidential candidate after Chen serves out his term in 2008. [H]e would face the hugely popular Nationalist Party leader, Ma Ying-jeou, the Harvard-educated mayor of the capital of Taipei. Observers have said Su must shake up the ruling party, improve government performance and overcome legislative gridlock before he would have any chance to win 2008 race"; Reuters"Su Tseng - Chang Nominated as Taiwan's New Premier"NYT 19 Jan 06:-"Taiwan president... nominated his former chief of staff... to be premier of a new cabinet... weeks after adopting a tougher policy stance toward rival China... Analysts said Chen handpicked the popular Su in a bid to shore up his own poor approval rating... Su has been relatively moderate in his public statements on China, having backed Chen's policies but refrained from using harsh rhetoric against Beijing while serving as DPP chairman"; Reuters"Taiwan Launches Holiday Flights to Rival China"NYT 19 Jan 06:-"Hundreds of Taiwanese arrived in China to celebrate Lunar New Year festival , only time of the year when diplomatic rivals Taipei and Beijing permit non-stop flights... This year's charter flights have been expanded to allow any Taiwanese to fly, whereas last year's charters were restricted to China-based Taiwan business people and their families. The non-stop charters that run until 07 Feb are the closest thing to direct flights across Taiwan Strait - though planes technically have to fly through Hong Kong or Macau air space - as permanent air links have been banned since Taiwan and China split at end of Chinese civil war... Taiwan and China first arranged holiday flights during Lunar New Year holiday last year, a time for far-flung families to gather in the biggest migration of humanity on Earth. Turning the once-in-a-year agreement into a regular service looks a long way off, however... Six airlines from each side will operate 72 flights between four Chinese cities and two Taiwan cities 20 Jan-13 Feb. There are about 300,000 Taiwanese living in Shanghai alone"; AP"Taiwanese Airline Begins New Year Flights"NYT 20 Jan 06:-"Taiwan allowed students and tour groups to fly direct to China for the first time in the third annual installment of symbolic Chinese New Year flights aimed at warming tense relations with the mainland... In 2003 and 2005, they were limited to Taiwanese businesspeople living on the mainland"; Economist 21 Jan 06"Taiwan: Desperate Chen"(44):-"Yu Shyi-kun, a former PM, elected chairman of Democratic Progressive Party 15 Jan... Yu owed his ascendancy to trouncing of his party in local elections...which resulted in resignation of his predecessor, Su Tseng-chang. Su, however, has now become PM in his turn after the sudden 'resignation' of Frank Hsieh - the fourth PM since 2000... The changes show that a deep unpopular president is circling the wagons. When President Chen Shui-bian was re-elected in Mar 04 he appeared to have performed a miracle. [B]een downhill since then. First, failure... to win a legislative majority in elections in Dec 04. Many blame Chen for campaigning on questions of national identity, not bread and butter issues... Government's inability to take a firm line on dalliance with China... made Chen look impotent. His popularity has slumped since then. Chen... may be planning again. His new year's speech suggested a tightening of economic policy toward China... Feisty Su would give president a premier more amenable to China-bashing, while Yu, as the new DPP head, is an ultra-efficient Chen loyalist who will win over dissenters among the party faithful"; Reuters"Taiwan Premier to Follow Chen's Tough China Tack"NYT 25 Jan 06:-"Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang was sworn in with a new cabinet [25 Jan], pledging to uphold President Chan Shui-bian's latest policy statement which signaled a tougher stance on China. Su vowed to form a clean government [but] gave no policy specifics at the handover ceremony and analysts do not expect major changes since, under Taiwan's political system, premier is appointed by president, who sets China and foreign policy"; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Leader Calls for End of Unification Council"NYT 31 Jan 06:-"Latest fracas in Taiwan over island's National Unification Council is especially baffling. Theoretically charged with reviewing an eventual political unification of Taiwan with mainland, council has not met since Apr 99... Yet council's mere existence is still enough to inflame passions, as President Chen showed when he merely mentioned an interest in abolishing council and guidelines it administers... President also suggested that Taiwan might apply this year to UN as Taiwan instead of using its less controversial legal name, the Republic of China, and that his country might work on a new draft of its constitution... US State Department voiced surprise at Chen's remarks and said... that US opposes any unilateral change in status quo by either side... Some of President Chen's speeches... lately have contained hints of a desire to pursue a more confrontational policy toward Beijing"; Reuters"U.S. Seeks to Curb China's Might: Pentagon Official"NYT 02 Feb 06:-"Pentagon is seeking to dissuade China from building its military forces to a level not warranted by its security needs, and issue is addressed in new long-term Pentagon plan. Senior US official... said Washington wanted to make sure Chinese 'have the forces necessary to provide for their genuine security needs and not to go beyond that'. No further details. Matter addressed in Quadrennial Defense Review, bluepoint for changes to US strategy and forces... Bush administration frequently has voiced concern about China's growing military spending. After as many as 17 years of double-digit defense spending increases, China is currently spending two to three times more than the $30b publicly announced as its defense budget, US officials estimate... US is eager to head off any showdown with China over Taiwan... Bush vowed in Apr 00 to do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend itself if attacked, although his position has become more ambiguous as administration maneuvers to forestall any possible conflict"; Norimitsu Onishi"Japanese Remarks About Taiwan Anger Beijing"NYT 06 Feb 06:-"Quarrel between Tokyo and Beijing over Japan's colonial and wartime history spilled over to sensitive topic of Taiwan after Japan's foreign minister praised his country's past rule over the island. The FM, Taro Aso, said in a speech that Taiwan's present high educational standards resulted from Japanese colonial policies. China, which ceded Taiwan after losing a war to Japan in 1895 and considers the island a renegade province, condemned the comments. Aso said that 'thanks to the significant improvement in educational standards and literacy' during Japan's colonial rule, 'Taiwan is now a country with a very high education level and keeps up with the current era'... China reacts acutely to any perceived foreign encroachment on Taiwanese affairs. Not surprisingly, the Chinese responded perhaps even more sharply than usual because those comments came from Japan. 'We are shocked by and express our strong indignation over the Japanese FM's remark of overtly glorifying invasion history', said Chinese FM spokesman... Japanese rule 'made Taiwan people suffer enslavement and brought grave disaster to the Chinese nation'"; Reuters"China Slams Taiwan President as 'Troublemaker'"NYT 08 Feb 06:-"China condemned Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's plan to scrap 15-year-old official guidelines on unification, calling him a 'troublemaker' and 'saboteur' of peace and stability in Asia. Chen, seeking to shake off Beijing's claim of sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan, said last month that it was time to consider scrapping the island's National Unification Council and its guidelines on unification with mainland. 'This demonstrates once again that he is a troublemaker and saboteur of cross-Strait relations and peace and stability in Asia', [Chinese] spokesman told news conference... Taiwan Strait, separating island and mainland, is considered one of Asia's hottest flashpoints. [He] did not say how China would respond if Chen scrapped the guidelines and council... Taiwan responded, calling China a troublemaker for its military build-up... If Chen dissolved council and guidelines, he would break a promise he made in his 2000 inauguration speech. He also vowed then not to declare Taiwan formally independent... US restated its support for 'one China' policy that has been the bedrock of Sino-US ties for about three decades and urged the two sides to avoid misunderstandings"; Financial Times"Beijing's Wrath Finds Little Echo in Taiwan"NYT 09 Feb 06:-"When Japan's Foreign Minister suggested recently that Taiwan's high educational standards were a positive legacy of Tokyo's 1895-1945 colonial rule, reaction from China was fast and furious... Such passions found little echo in Taiwan, however, where the public and government appeared largely untroubled by Aso's remarks... The sharply contrasting reactions from Taipei and Beijing highlight a gulf in historical perceptions that lies near the heart of one of the world's most complex and potentially dangerous political faultlines... Evidence of enthusiasm for things Japanese is easy to find in Taiwan... Tokyo...wrested [Taiwan] from weak Chinese control after victory in 1895 Sino-Japanese war. In the following half-century, Japanese governors laid many of the foundations of a modern economy in Taiwan, raising literacy levels, building essential infrastructure and establishing modern agriculture. That is not to say Taiwanese uniformly approve of Japanese colonialism... Under Japanese rule, Taiwanese suffered economic and political discrimination: opportunities for higher education, for example, were largely limited... Colonial development of Taiwan was also clearly intended to make it a subordinate part of the Japanese economy... The vehemence of Chinese reaction reflects in part a determination to play down differences in experiences between the Communist mainland and the democratic island... But Beijing's line also aims to paper over a key reason why many Taiwanese feel relatively positive towards Japanese colonial control: their belief that rule by Chinese from the mainland was worse. Many older Taiwanese contrast the discipline and order of Japanese colonialists with the arrogance and unpredictability of the troops and officials of the Chinese Kuomintang government that took control of the island following Tokyo's 1945 surrender. Bloody suppression of dissent followed the resumption of Chinese rule and, when KMT leaders fled to Taiwan in 1949, they brought a whole ruling class of mainlanders who often looked down on the locals... 'Many older people have good feelings towards the Japanese but not towards mainlanders'. Such sentiment fuels desires for formal Taiwanese independence... China's military threat against Taiwan makes many on the island feel more sympathetic towards Japan... Last year Tokyo agreed with Washington that peace in the Taiwan Strait was a shared security goal"; Economist 11 Feb 06"The Quadrennial Defence Review: Rummy's Wish List"(29-32):-description of some current proposals by Rumsfeld's US Defense Dept. for its strategy/force/weaponry/budget. Article says QDR generally argues "Terrorists are the main threat. Others include rogue, possibly nuclear, nations (like North Korea), a mightily-armed rival (ie, China) and prospect of more natural disasters. [Article reports China is described as] the power with 'greatest potential to compete militarily' with US. It stresses the desire for good relations with the regime but complains that China's rapid increase in defence spending has already upset the balance in Asia". This implies the Taiwan issue, but the article does not mention it specifically ; Economist 18 Feb 06"China: Olympian Efforts"(42):-"Chinese authorities understand [2008 Olympics in Beijing might generate] potential hazards, but foreigners... fear they may be unable to avoid them... All [others] would, of course, be dwarfed by a serious incident involving Taiwan. That is unlikely, but not impossible. Some pundits fear island might be tempted to use the approach to Olympics as cover for steps toward independence, hoping China's fear of wrecking the games would moot its response. On this theory, most ardent pro-independence forces in Taiwan might think it better to act than to wait: mainland military strength is growing steadily, and a future US administration might be less likely than the incumbent one to defend Taiwan. China certainly takes the idea seriously. Chinese general... said two years ago that Taiwan was mistaken if it thought China 'might not raise a hand because of the Olympics'"; "India and Taiwan: Getting Acquainted"(42-3):-"In 1950, China recognized People's Republic, not rival regime in Taipei, and relations with island have been tenuous ever since. Taiwan now wants to change that. [L]ast month first delegation from Taiwan's parliament visit[ed] India... to promote India as an alternative investment centre to China... Taiwan-India Cooperation Council launched in Taipei...to raise India's profile among Taiwan's business and help persuade them to diversify away from China. [Now, two] delegations from Taiwan in Delhi [and Mumbai]. Nearly two-fifths of Taiwan's exports go to China, also destination for more than two-thirds of Taiwan's total foreign investment... Everyone agrees there is potential, if only because the base is so small... Indian competition might at least force China into better treatment of Taiwan's businesses [although Beijing] will balk at anything that smacks of 'official' dealings with Taiwan"; AP"Cardinal in Hong Kong Among 15 Newly Named"NYT 22 Feb 06:-"Pope Benedict XVI named his first batch of cardinals, sending strong political messages with nomination in Hong Kong... Key appointment is... Bishop Joseph Zen, an outspoken China critic and supporter of the underground church on mainland. Benedict has sought to restore diplomatic relations with China and Zen's nomination could be seen as an affront to Beijing. However, China experts said Benedict's selection was also practical , given that Zen is an expert on Chinese church and as cardinal will serve as a close papal adviser. China broke ties with Vatican in 1951 and demands that Catholics worship only in churches approved by the state-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association, which does not recognize pope's authority... Analysts said China is unlikely to react strongly - at least in public - to Zen's selection for fear of alienating Catholics in former British colony, where the church is allowed to operate freely". [Article does not mention Taiwan]; Reuters "US Smile Wears Thin as Taiwan's Chen Goads China"NYT 23 Feb 06:-"Taiwan President Chen's increasingly tough stand on China is testing patience of island's biggest ally and arms supplier: US. Washington was already frustrated by Taiwan's delay in approving an arms package, but Chen's latest needling of Beijing over its claim to island has left it fuming... US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979 and considers mainland as China's sole legitimate government - the 'one-China' policy - but it is also obliged by law to help Taiwan defend itself. Washington is keen for neither side to rock the boat in potentially one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia. Trouble is, Chen has made boat-rocking his hallmark... Taiwan officials say communications with Washington are 'candid and smooth', and relationship remains firm... President Bush vowed early to do 'whatever it took' to defend the island. But China's alarm grew over what it saw as Chen creeping toward independence, prompting Bush, with China's PM at his side, to warn Taiwan in 2003 against upsetting the status quo... Newspapers said Chen snubbed a special US envoy, refusing to go back on his decision to disband [National Unification] Council... US State Department spokesman... said this week that Taiwan needs to 'refrain from taking actions which can be seen as unilateral efforts to change the status quo'... Analysts believe Chen, whose second and final term ends in 2008, is seeking to consolidate support among core independence supporters to avoid being written off as a lame duck"; Reuters"China Piles on the Rhetoric Against Taiwan's Chen"NYT 23 Feb 06:-"China issued another volley of rhetoric against Taiwan President Chen, branding his plan to scrap a council advising on eventual unification... as 'dangerous provocation'... 'He has placed all the stakes on provocation and creating crises', commentary [by state-run Xinhua] said without referring to Chen by name. 'Safety and well-being of Taiwan people have been made his personal political sacrifices'... 'We hope concerned countries will be vigilant about the wrong and even dangerous actions of Taiwan independence forces', Chinese FM spokesman told regular news conference"; Reuters"China Vows to Ease Curbs on Tourists Visiting Taiwan"NYT 24 Feb 06:-"China pledged to ease curbs on tourists visiting Taiwan as part of efforts to win over people of the self-ruled island it claims as its own. China has issued volleys of rhetoric against Taiwan President Chen this week over his plan to scrap a council on unification... and said it was ready to deal with 'any possible complicated situation'... But Chinese officials stopped short of saying abolition of 15-year-old National Unification Council and unification guidelines would mean war, and instead repeated their previous offers of economic sweeteners... Senior official...said China would soon announce specific regulations on managing trips by Chinese residents to island, a ban on which was removed last May... China has taken a stick-and-carrot approach since 2005... Taiwan has cautiously welcomed tourism offer, saying it could accomodate 1,000 Chinese tourists a day [boosting hotel sales up to 15%]. But no formal negotiations have taken place... Small number of mainlanders now able to travel to Taiwan, mostly on business, but figure is marginal compared to 4.1m trips to mainland last year by Taiwan people"; Reuters"Taiwan Businessmen in China Critical of Chen"NYT 26 Feb 06:-"Taiwan businessmen working in China have criticized Taiwan President Chen for plans to scrap a council advising on eventual unification with mainland ... 'At present, the mainland tries its utmost to protect the rights and interests of Taiwan businessmen and to maintain the peace across the Taiwan straits', president of Association of Taiwan-Funded Enterprises in Beijing, told a news conference... 'But the supreme leader of the Taiwan administration tries all means to make troubles for Taiwan businessmen'"; Reuters"Taiwan Set to Disband Council on Unification"NYT 26 Feb 06:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is scheduled to meet his national security advisers to scrap a council advising on eventual unification with China, in a move Beijing considered a 'dangerous provocation'. Chen said last week National Unification Council and 15-year-old guidelines on unification were 'absurd products of an absurd era' and should be scrapped... Chen's latest move to scrap unification council has infuriated Beijing and alarmed Washington... Local newspapers said Chen would not use word 'abolish' in a bid to reassure Washington that island had no intention of unilaterally altering the status quo"; Reuters"Taiwan Scraps Body on Unification with China"NYT 27 Feb 06:-"Taiwan president scrapped [27 Feb] a policy-making body on unification... While move was almost certain to complicate reunion and fuel tensions, Chen said it did not mean Taiwan would push for formal independence. 'Taiwan has no intention of changing status quo and firmly opposes any use of non-peaceful means that will cause status quo to change', Chen said after meeting with his top national security advisers. Chen... declared National Unification Council has 'ceased to function' and guidelines on unification have 'ceased to apply'. Chinese newspapers published a statement by policy-making Taiwan Affairs Office warning move would 'certainly spark a serious crisis in Taiwan Strait and sabotage peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region'. [C]hief economist for Greater China at HSBC in Hong Kong said...'If Taiwan continues to take unilateral action, pressure will be piled upon it, even from US'... Chen's plan to scrap the council has alarmed US... 'China has to calculate how to respond to, not annoy, the (Taiwan) populace and not fall into Chen's trap. Chen wants a strong reaction from China', [researcher at Taipei's Institute of International Relations] said. 'They are watching what US does next, what the opposition parties do next, and then they will decide what to do'"; Reuters"China Says End of Taiwan Unification Body Provocative"NYT 27 Feb 06:-"China's state media called Taiwan president's scrapping of a body on reunification 'provocative', and said move marked a step toward independence that could endanger peace in the region... 'Scrapping the council and the guidelines is solely aimed at paving the way for his pursuit of Taiwan's de jure independence through the 'constitutional re-engineering' project', [state-run China Daily said in an editorial], referring to constitutional amendments... But editorial also said moves toward independence were 'doomed to failure', with Chinese united in their desire to safeguard China's territorial integrity"; AP"China Blasts Taiwan for Panel Termination"NYT 27 Feb 06:-"Taiwan's president shut down committee responsible for unifying with rival China, significantly deepening tensions in the region. China blasted the move... 'His further escalation of secessionist activities will no doubt stoke tensions and trigger a serious crisis on the Straits', official China Daily said in editorial, citing earlier warning from the government's Taiwan Affairs Office... US played down Chen's decision to terminate the committee, with State Department... saying it 'has not been abolished. It's been frozen'... US [White House spokesman] said welcomes 'President Chen's reaffirmation of his administration's commitment to cross-Strait peace and stability'. US government has consistently opposed any change to China-Taiwan status quo, fearing the consequences of being drawn into hostilities in the region... In making his announcement, Chen denied that he was altering basis of Taiwan's relations with Beijing. 'Fact that National Unification Council is ceasing its function... does not involve changing the status quo, but it is based on the democratic principle of sovereignty resting on the people', Chen said... Andrew Yang of Taipei's Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies... said the chances of China-Taiwan hostilities erupting across the Taiwan Strait were remote. 'I don't think there will be any escalation of military tension', he said. 'China may upgrade its military exercises, but it won't go much beyond that'... Chen's primary constituency is made up of the descendants of the people who immigrated to the island from the mainland in the 17th and 18th centuries. Many want to strengthen Taiwan's status as a self-governing entity, and see themselves as Taiwanese, rather than Chinese"; AP"Taiwan Leader Halts China Unifying Panel"NYT 28 Feb 06:-"Chen 'is determined to push "Taiwan independence" to create antagonism and conflict within Taiwan and across the strait. It will only bring disaster to Taiwan society', Chinese Communist Party and government said in a joint statement carried by official Xinhua News Agency. Despite the harsh language, China said it would push for a peaceful resolution to the dispute. 'The Taiwan compatriots are our bone-and-flesh brothers' it said"; AP"Hu Jintao Warns Taiwan on Independence"NYT 28 Feb 06:-"Chinese President Hu Jintao denounced Taiwanese president's decision... and warned that Beijing will not permit self-ruled island to pursue formal independence. Hu's criticism came amid a series of stern Chinese statements that vilified Taiwanese president, but refrained from repeating Beijing's frequent threats to attack the island... Chinese FM called on US, Taiwan's only major ally, to block any moves toward independence.... Hu accused Chen of taking a 'dangerous step'... 'It will only bring disaster to Taiwan society', [Communist Party] statement said... Japan urged Taiwan and China to hold talks to ease tensions"; Joseph Kahn & Keith Bradsher"Beijing Accuses Taiwan Leader of 'Grave Provocation'"NYT 28 Feb 06:-"President Hu Jintao of China reacted sharply to decision by President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan to terminate island's unification council, and calling it 'a grave provocation' and 'dangerous step on the road toward Taiwan independence'... Hu said the move threatened stability in the Taiwan Strait and the region. 'We will continue to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification, but never tolerate secession of Taiwan from the motherland', Hu said in remarks published by official New China News Agency... [E]xperts in China said the action had shaken Beijing's confidence that Chen's recent electoral setbacks and pressure from Washington would check his drive for formal independence. [They felt] Chen still faces uphill struggle to achieve formal independence for Taiwan, the main goal of his core political constituency. His approval ratings have sunk below 30% in some recent polls. Taiwan legislature... controlled by Nationalists, who favor more cordial ties with the mainland. Moreover, US, Taiwan's only major military and political partner, has tried to check creeping moves toward independence. [S]crapping of unification council... widely viewed in Beijing as a test of how successfully US could constrain Chen... [He] modified the wording of his order, saying the council would 'cease to function' rather than be abolished... But in Beijing's view, Chen effectively prevailed over Washington's objections. 'Although he did not use the term 'abolish' and changed the term to 'cease function', this is merely a word game', China's Taiwan Affairs Office said. 'Basically he is tricking the Taiwan people and international opinion'. [E]xpert at Tsinghua University in Beijing said Chen had shown that he could manage US pressure... Huang of People's University gave US credit for forcing at least a balance in cross-strait relations... Influential lawmaker from Chen's governing Democratic Progressive Party said Chen had been increasingly worried that China had been trying to gain the upper hand. [S]he did not expect any further initiatives on sovereignty issues"; Reuters"China Vows to Rein in Taiwan Independence Forces"NYT 03 Mar 06:-"Top Chinese Communist Party leader vowed that Beijing would block any moves toward Taiwan independence but would work for peaceful solution to the stand-off... 'We must continue with utmost sincerity and vigor to safeguard and promote the peaceful and stable development of cross-Strait relations and strive for peaceful reunification', he told the 2,000 delegates meeting at the Great Hall of the People. Remarks by [man] ranked fourth in the party hierarchy marked a softening from President Hu Jintao's comments... 'We must continue to unwaveringly implement the basic principles of peaceful reunification and 'one country, two systems', [he] said"; Reuters"Chen Wants New Taiwan Constitution: Report"NYT 03 Mar 06:-"Taiwan's President Chen... determined to draft a new constitution that better suits Taiwan's current situation, [Japanese] Yomiuri Shimbun said... In an interview with Yomiuri in Taipei, Chen said he was resolved to draft a new constitution but avoided comment on whether the new document would include phrases changing the status quo in Taiwan, including its official name, the Republic of China... 'China's intention to invade Taiwan is visible now' he added, noting that number of Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan had increased to some 784 over past few years"; AP"China to Increase Military Budget to $35B"NYT 04 Mar 06:-"China's military budget will rise 14.7% this year, a government spokesman said. Increase will be spent on salaries, new equipment, training and higher fuel costs... China has announced double-digit spending increases for its 2.5m-member military nearly every year since the early 1990s. Beijing's true military spending is believed to be as high as several times the reported figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items. China has spent heavily in recent years on adding submarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons to its arsenal to back up its frequent threats to attack Taiwan... US government report issued in Jul said China also is building up its military to be able to project power beyond Taiwan"; Economist 04 Mar 06"Taiwan and China: A Calibrated Provocation"(38-9):-"National Unification Council's notional aim is to advise [Taiwan] president on how island and mainland are to unite. Body has been inactive for six years. When Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian appeared to scrap it this week, he caused anger in China, and worry in US... Appealing to Taiwanese nationalism is one way to rally support. But Chen does not want to provoke China into a military response. So his decision was judiciously worded... The careful wording was also partly intended to persuade US, which has been trying to persuade Chen not to rock the boat. State Department said US would 'continue to hold President Chen by his commitments not to take unilateral moves'. Also, it was US understanding that Chen had not formally abolished the council... However, China does not seem keen to escalate this particulate dispute. President Hu Jintao accused Chen of taking a 'dangerous step' towards independence. But officials have not threatened to invoke an anti-secession law... that authorised military action against Taiwan in the event of undefined 'major incidents'... A bigger worry for Chinese leaders is that Chen might renege on other pledges not to amend the island's constitution. He may suggest that China is a separate country. Worse, he may change Taiwan's official name... to Republic of Taiwan... Chen might feel tempted to risk a dramatic gesture in order to rally support for his party. But... constitutional reform would require approval by three-quarters of the legislature as well as a referendum. With KMT and its supporters... controlling a majority of parliament's seats, this would make it hard to introduce an amendment China strongly disliked. Chen wants a constitutional referendum next year, but has not so far proposed any changes that would rile the Chinese"; Reuters"China Defends Arms Budget, Taiwan Warns of Missiles"NYT 07 Mar 06:-"China's FM [Li Zhaoxing] to deflect concerns over announcement of another double-digit rise in military budget, saying country had spent far less than US. Defense came as self-ruled Taiwan...said that China has accumulated nearly 800 missiles capable of bombing the island for 10 hours, and warned the threat is increasing rapidly. China at weekend unveiled 14.7% jump in 2006 defense spending... amid renewed tension across potential regional flash point Taiwan Strait... Much of that spending is aimed at boosting a force numerically large but lacking in modern equipment and professionalism, one of whose main missions could be to force Taiwan into unification with China... 'China's national defense policy is transparent; it is completely defensive in nature', [Li] told a news conference... Japan's FM urged Beijing to take steps toward nuclear disarmament, to strictly control exports of missile technologies and to disclose military data, saying information on China's military remained 'opaque'. Taiwan's Defense Ministry told reporters that China was adding its arsenal of ballistic missiles at between 75-100 a year, up from 50 previously... 'The Taiwan question is the biggest factor influencing Sino-US relations', Li said, adding that he hoped US would not 'give the wrong messages to Taiwan'"; AP"Hu Urges Military to Beef Up Combat Skills"NYT 12 Mar 06:-"President Hu Jintao urged China's 2.5m-member military to ensure national unity by beefing up its combat skills, amid harsh warnings to Taiwan leaders... Hu's comments... contained few specifics and he was not quoted as directly mentioning Taiwan... However, China's recent military buildup... is believed to be largely directed at Taiwan... China has lambasted Taiwanese President Chen... 'We must resolutely carry out our sacred responsibility of defending national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity and security', said Hu... Apart from deterring Taiwan's formal independence, analysts say China... potentially challenging regional dominance of US, Taiwan's chief military ally"; AP"Taiwanese Protest End of Unification Group"NYT 12 Mar 06:-"Tens of thousands of opposition supporters marched in Taipei to protest Taiwanese president's decision to abolish committee responsible for unification... Taipei city councilor...told demonstrators their protest was necessary to save Taiwan from threat of an armed confrontation with China... Opposition said Chen should work on improving Taiwan's economy instead of provoking China"; AP"Chinese Premier Offers Taiwan Contact"NYT 13 Mar 06:-"China's premier[, Wen Jiabao,] accused Taiwanese [president] of pursuing formal independence and damaging regional stability, but offered to have official contacts with his party if it renounces its pro-independence stance. [A]t nationally televised news conference... premier accused Chen and his allies of 'going all out to pursue their goal of Taiwan independence' through proposed constitutional changes... But Wen offered to open official contacts with DPP if it renounces its pro-independence stance. 'As long as party is willing to give up its platform for so-called Taiwan independence, we are willing to make positive moves and have contacts and consultation with them', premier said"; Reuters"Taiwan Opposition Can't Agree on US Arms Deal"NYT 15 Mar 06:-"Taiwan's opposition lawmakers are divided over whether, or what, to buy from a package of advanced weaponry offered by Washington, dashing hopes for a resolution to end the deadlocked deal any time soon. Main opposition Kuomintang (KMT)... widely expected to come up with its own answer to the deal before its chairman... leaves for US... Delay has fueled worries in Washington that Taipei is not serious about its own defense. But KMT said it did not feel any pressure... KMT, which favors closer ties with China, said many lawmakers wanted to shelve proposal for now, after President Chen scrapped dormant but symbolic body on unification... Issue also appears divisive among Taiwan's public. Survey issued [15 Mar] showed, while more than half of Taiwan people are worried about China's growing number of missiles facing the island, 39% did not consider it as a threat. Most KMT lawmakers agreed to give a go-ahead to buy 12 P-3'Orion' anti-submarine aircraft and put aside purchase of six patriot missile batteries. But they were divided over offer for eight diesel-electric submarines, party officials said... [Defense] ministry now plans to boost its regular budget to account for 2.85% of the gross domestic product in 2007 and 3% in 2008, from 2.4% this year to cover the expense"; Reuters"US to China: Don't Cling to 'Old Ways'"NYT 16 Mar 06:-"White House pressed China for further reforms of what it called 'discredited' trade policies and criticized its military buildup in a hardening of US line on Asia-Pacific power. Latest rebuke to China was contained in a new national security strategy, first comprehensive update since 2003... White House made clear it increasingly regarded China... as a challenge to US interests. It issued a veiled threat, saying: 'Our strategy seeks to encourage China to make the right strategic choices for its people, while we hedge against other possibilities'... White House used document to remind China and Taiwan that they 'must resolve their differences peacefully, without coercion and without unilateral action'. A top Pentagon official said increase in China's military might was forcing US to revise plans for any showdown over Taiwan... China fields 'well over' 700 short-range ballistic missiles across the strait from Taiwan and is adding about 100 missiles a year, said Peter Rodman, assistant secretary of defense... US policy for decades has been to oppose any change to status quo by either Beijing or Taiwan. But Rodman said China's buildup 'requires us to adapt to the new situation'"; Esther Pan"Q&A: Taiwan Raises Its Voice Again"Council on Foreign Relations 16 Mar 06:-four-page article raises, and responds to, the following questions: "How serious are the recent tensions between China and Taiwan?; What was the National Unification Council?; How significant was Chen's decision to abolish it?; How much support does Chen have for his policies in Taiwan?; What are Chen's domestic political considerations?; What has Chen been doing in Taiwan?; What has China done?; What is the role of cross-Strait trade?; What role does the US play in the China-Taiwan relationship?"; AP"Taiwan Politician Has Explaining to Do"NYT 17 Mar 06:-"Ma Ying-jeou - man many think will be Taiwan's next president - is flying to US, where he'll have to explain why his National Party is blocking the $16b arms deal... He was expected to meet with congressional leaders and administration officials. His party has said it would propose a new weapons package, but it has yet to give any details. For more than a year, Ma's party and its allies have used their slim legislative majority to reject the package... out of concern it will force Taiwan into an arms race with China. Last weekend, thousands of Taiwanese paraded in the capital, demonstrating against President Chen's tough policy on China. Ma... joined the march and was surrounded by people carrying signs protesting the US weapons sale. Failure to seal the arms deal has angered Taiwan's president, who says the weapons are necessary to help counter a decade-long Chinese military buildup... Taiwan's food-dragging on the weapons has exasperated Washongton... Some have recently started wondering if US blood should be spilled for Taiwan if the island isn't serious about its own defense... But the Nationalists haven't come up with an alternative plan, despite repeated promises to do so"; AP"Taiwanese Protest Chinese Threats"NYT 18 Mar 06:-"Tens of thousands of government supporters marched to protest China's threats against Taiwan and defend President Chen's tough policy on communist country. Protest came less than week after opposition Nationalists mobilized an estimated 40,000 demonstrators, accusing Chen of stoking tensions between Taiwan and China... 'Our future will never be decided by the 1.3b people of China', Chen told demonstrators... 'We are totally against unification. Our future will only be decided by the 23m people of Taiwan'... Chairman of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party said protest was meant to attract international attention to China's threats... Police estimated crowd at 45,000, while Taiwanese TV stations said it was closer to 100,000"; AP"Taiwan to Maintain Status Quo With China"NYT 21 Mar 06:-"President Chen said that he would abide by Taiwan's promises to US to keep the status quo with China. Chen alarmed Bush administration with recent decision to abolish a committee responsible for unifying... Washington fears being drawn into hostilities in volatile Taiwan Straits... Chen said 'Taiwan-US relations will... become closer ever, and there is no room for possibility of any so-called accidents'"; Reuters"Taiwan's Ma Vows to Maintain Status Quo with China"NYT 22 Mar 06:-"Taiwan's main opposition leader and potential presidential front-runner vowed to uphold status quo with China, rejecting both independence and early unification... Ma Ying-jeou, chairman of Nationalist Party and Taipei mayor, said if his party wins presidency in 2008 election, he will reopen talks with China on mutually accepted terms. 'We will not pursue Taiwan's de jure independence, nor will we pursue the policy of immediate unification', Ma told Reuters... 'We think we should maintain status quo so that mainland China would have no excuse to use force against Taiwan and if they do, I think it would not be legitimate and US would have much more legitimacy to help us'. Ma vowed to resume talks that have been frozen since before the election in 2000 of Chen... 'We support reasonable purchase of arms from US, we need adequate defense capability (and) we want to demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves', he said"; Reuters"Keep the Pandas, Taiwan's Chen Tells China"NYT 23 Mar 06:-"Taiwan President Chen told China to drop idea of giving island a goodwill gift of a pair of pandas, saying they would not be happy"; Reuters"Taiwan's Ma Says Building Consensus on Arms Deal"NYT 23 Mar 06:-"Taiwan's main opposition Nationalist Party is building a consensus on a key $11b US arms package that has long been delayed by political wrangling, party's leader said. 'If we let it go, people would get a wrong signal from us and think that we support President Chen's scrapping of unification guidelines', Ma said... He expected Nationalist caucus to make 'a more concrete decision in the months ahead'. Evaluation of the weapons deal would be based on Taiwan's defense needs, state of relations with China, Taipei's financial capabilities and public opinion, added Ma"; AP"Vatican Sees Warming Relations With China"NYT 25 Mar 06:-"Vatican's FM said that 'time is ripe' for Holy See and Beijing to establish diplomatic relations, and confirmed it is ready to move its embassy from Taiwan. However, there were some things Vatican will not give up.:. pope names his bishops. China demands a say in the appointment of bishops. [Vatican] said it was clear that spiritual needs of the several million Catholics in China are more urgent than those of the 300,000 Catholics in Taiwan. 'For this reason the Holy See has manifested its willingness to transfer the apostolic nunciature from Taipei to Beijing just as in 1952, on account of the circumstances of the time, it transferred the nunciature from mainland China to Taiwan'. Vatican has communicated its wish to move its embassy to both governments... Worship is allowed only in [Chinese] government-controlled churches, but millions belong to unofficial congregations loyal to Rome... Vatican does not intend to weaken its 'bonds of friendship' with Taiwan Catholics and the entire population. Taiwanese 'psychologically preparing' for a change in their status with Vatican"; Economist 25 Mar 06"Balancing Act: A Survey of China"(1-20):-following derived from substantial section relating to Taiwan issue only: "In past few months, China's handling of Taiwan has... become remarkably pragmatic. China has moved swiftly to stem... protest from Taiwan and West against new law... that authorised use of force against island should it ever try to secede... China's President Hu hosted unprecedented visits by Taiwan's opposition leaders which [reassured] Taiwanese public... Leader...says that during his stay Chinese officially accepted 'for first time' that Taiwan/mainland 'equal entities'... Hu apparently decided unification with Taiwan simply not feasible during his term... Although China continues to concentrate military modernisation efforts on improving ability to fight Taiwan and US forces that might try to protect island, Taiwan much less of sore point between China and US than it was. Events in Taiwan in next years could make China and US jittery again. Dec 07 Taiwan elections for legislature; Mar 08 for presidency. Both China and US worried President Chen will use his remaining [period] to push for confirmation of Taiwan's independent identity. [He] may well feel inclined to use Taiwanese nationalism to shore up his popularity [again]. Already unsettled China/US this year by scrapping National Reunification Council... Also revived talk of organizing referendum in 07 on new constitution... China objects strenuously, as display of sovereign power... US tartly reminded Chen of promises not to upset status quo. Taiwan officials say China should be blamed for [its] anti-secession law... But China [can] feel relatively confident... Chen would need 75% MPs to approve any constitutional change.:. extremely difficult... And China happy with indications Ma Ying-jeou... likely front runner to succeed Chen. Ma, though not keen on reunification as long as China...dictatorship, is no advocate of independence... China's military build-up next few years will alarm US, particularly [if] clear its forces would be able to overwhelm Taiwan and inflict enormous losses on US if chose to intervene. But very good reasons why China... highly unlikely to attack Taiwan, even if it had capability to do so. Such attack would devastate China's relationship with West/other Asians , and could cripple the economic growth that [its] party regards so vital. Trouble is that planners in Pentagon cannot afford to bet on it; Reuters"China Military Buildup Destabilizing - Japan Report"NYT 27 Mar 06:-"China's growing military strength and its tense relationship with Taiwan are major destabilizing factors in East Asia, according to a strategy report issued by a think tank affiliated with Japan's Defense Ministry. Ties between Japan and China are at their worst state in decades... In annual report on East Asian strategy, National Institute for Defense Studies, a government-funded think tank, warned of China's military buildup and its growing pressure on Taiwan under independence-minded President Chen Shui-bian. 'As the modernization of China's armed forces has been making headway, many observers take the view that the military balance between China and Taiwan is shifting in China's favor', report said. 'The murky relations between China and Taiwan, and an increase in China's military muscle, can be seen as major destabilizing factors in East Asia', it added... Report said China has increased the number of short-range ballistic missiles deployed in coastal areas bordering on the Taiwan Strait and that military exercises - including a first-ever cooperative exercise between Russia and China last year - appear conceptually aimed at Taiwan. 'Although Beijing seeks to unify Taiwan with mainland China by peaceful means, it continues to modernize its nuclear and missile capabilities, and its naval and air forces, to enable it to prevent Taiwan from becoming independent', it said"; Financial Times"Taiwan To Open Up China Industrial Investment"NYT 28 Mar 06:-"Taiwan's government will start to open up more industries for investment in China later this year once its new, stricter supervision framework for cross-Strait economic exchanges is working, cabinet's most senior economic policy official said... Taiwanese companies have been waiting for years for the government to lift restrictions on mainland investments in sectors such as banking, petrochemicals and chip-packaging"; AP"Vatican, Beijing Discussing Forging Ties"NYT 30 Mar 06:-"Hong Kong's new cardinal said Vatican and Beijing are discussing forging fresh ties, which could allow Pope to make a historic visit to China. Joseph Zen, an outspoken champion of religious freedom in China, was uncertain when an agreement would be reached... No pope has ever visited mainland China. Vatican's FM... confirmed it is ready to move its embassy from Taiwan... But Zen said the Beijing government may allow [pope] to visit both mainland China and Taiwan because he is a religious leader, not a politician. If the Vatican cut ties with Taiwan, it would be huge blow to island since Holy See is its only diplomatic ally in Europe. Island's other partners are mostly impoverished African, Latin American and Caribbean nations... Zen said...Taiwanese would understand if the Vatican switched its diplomatic relations... 'Government and people of Taiwan would accept the decision of the holy father', Zen said. He added: 'Holy father would go to visit mainland China. Of course, I think he can also go visit Taiwan'"; AP"Taiwan Rejects China's Offer of Pandas"NYT 31 Mar 06:-"Taiwan on [31 Mar] rejected China's offer of [two] pandas in the latest sign of a hardening attitude toward its communist neighbour... Taiwan's President Chen and his supporters have repeatedly denounced China's offer as a propaganda ploy designed to camoulage its threats to attack Taiwan"; Keith Bradsher"China Tries Wooing Taiwan by Honoring First Emperor"NYT 05 Apr 06:-"The ceremony was a lavish display calculated to woo the Taiwanese public and instill national pride across China. Leaders from the National People's Congress, China's rubber-stamp Parliament, and top executives from state-controlled Chinese industries, joined a senior Taiwanese opposition lawmaker and 700 Taiwanese businesspeople in paying their respects to Huang Di, China's semi-mythical first emperor, who is said to have lived 5,000 years ago... Event was the latest and most unusual in a series of Chinese initiatives to lessen popular resistance in Taiwan toward an eventual political unification with the mainland. Last week, Taiwan rejected a Chinese offer of two pandas... but that has not stopped China from continuing its charm offensive"; Reuters"China Official Says No Timetable on Vatican Ties"NYT 12 Apr 06:-"China has no timetable for re-establishing ties with Vatican, a religious official was quoted as saying, throwing into doubt earlier reports that could have diplomatic relations by 2008 Olympics... 'Vatican must sever the so-called "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan and recognize the Chinese government as the sole legitimate government of China and not interfere in our internal affairs in name of religion'"; Reuters"Taiwan Likely to Lift Ban on Chinese Tourists"NYT 13 Apr 06:-"Taiwan's independence-leaning government said it may lift a ban on visits by Chinese tourists to the island, a move that could trump an opposition delegation's talks in Beijing this weekend. 'Even if (China) continues to stall negotiations with us, we do not rule out possibility of unilaterally lifting ban on mainland tourists coming to Taiwan', Mainland Affairs Council chairman told reporters. Announcement came as opposition delegation left for Beijing to discuss a slew of economic issues at a meeting that underscores determination of China's ruling Communist Party to sideline Taiwan's government. Delegation of more than 100 businessmen and politicians from the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), or National Party, will hold talks on direct flights and tourist visit from the mainland at a two-day forum "; Reuters"Taiwan Key to China - US Ties: Former Ambassador"NYT 14 Apr 06:-"China said Taiwan remained the most important issue in its relations with US, days before President Hu Jintao heads to Washington. Vice FM Yang Jiechi also said differences on trade and economic policies... could be resolved, and countered suggestions that China's rapid rise posed a threat to the rest of the world. But he reserved his strongest comments for Taiwan... 'The Taiwan question is most important, most sensitive core issue in China-US relationship', said Yang... China will be seeking a clear show of support from Washington on Taiwan, analysts say"; Reuters"US - China Ties Under Strain Ahead of Hu - Bush Summit"NYT 14 Apr 06:-"US ties with China are becoming strained over security and economic issues after a relative calm, presenting a difficult challenge as President Bush and President Hu meet next week. The two leaders are eager to keep disagreements over matters such as trade and China's military buildup from disrupting a relationship seen as central to international stability and economic well-being. But experts expect only modest results from Hu's first presidential visit to Washington on 20 Apr, and many are wary about the future as domestic political pressures grow for the US to treat China as next major adversary... US-China trade and currency disputes are a main source of the current difficulties and the decline in domestic support for China, but Bush and Hu also face major security issues... Hu almost certainly will raise the issue of Taiwan[, but] US officials and experts said they believe situation is reasonably stable now and summit is unlikely to produce movement"; Reuters"China Fears Drive Big US Arms Projects"NYT 14 Apr 06:-"US fears of a rising China are spurring billions of dollars worth of weapons projects, from nuclear-fueled attack submarines to fighter jets to destroyers. Even as Bush prepares to welcome Hu,.. Washington is factoring in potential conflicts over such sore spots as Taiwan, competition for scarce resources and any threat to its predominance in Asia... Focus of US approach to China remains to prod it into playing a constructive regional role and to be a partner on security challenges from terrorism to curbing the spread of weapons, narcotics and piracy... 'The fleet will have greater presence in Pacific Ocean, consistent with global shift of trade and transport', Pentagon said in its strategy paper. It said 60% of US submarines would be based there, up from 50% now, and at least six aircraft carriers, up from five now. [US] assistant secretary of defense said... China's military buildup was forcing US to revise plans for any showdown over Taiwan"; AP"China Offers Taiwan New Tariff Cuts"NYT 15 Apr 06:-"China announced tariff cuts on imports of fruit and fish from Taiwan, offering the self-ruled island new trade concessions in an effort to boost sentiment for uniting with the communist mainland. Announcement came during visit to Beijing by Taiwan's former opposition leader... Beijing is trying to isolate Taiwanese President Chen by forging ties with his political opposition and offering trade concessions to appeal to Taiwan's farmers... Former chairman of Taiwan's Nationalist Party... called for closer trade ties between the two sides, saying Taiwan cannot succeed economically without the mainland's markets and factories. Taiwanese president has rejected the business gathering as propaganda meant to create a false image of goodwill ahead of Chinese President Hu's trip to Washington"; Reuters"China Dangles Trade Deals at Taiwan's Opposition"NYT 15 Apr 06:-"China held out a clutch of potential economic agreements with Taiwan at end of meeting in Beijing intended to court Taiwanese opinion ahead of Chinese President's visit to Washington. China's offers of aviation, agricultural and financial deals with self-ruled island came in a statement after a two-day forum between Chinese Communist officials and Taiwan opposition parties, which favor closer ties with mainland... But the proposals are unlikely to have any direct effect on official government dealings between China and Taiwan, which are frozen by political hostility... Meeting came... days before China's president flies to US for talks with Bush that will include Taiwan... Taiwanese business executives attending the Beijing meeting said it would increase pressure on Chen to seek agreement with Beijing on flights and other economic issues"; Reuters "China, Taiwan Should Resume Talks: Hu"NYT 16 Apr 06:-"Days before a summit with President Bush, Chinese Communist Party chief Hu Jintao called for talks between China and Taiwan asap to maintain peace in the region. China and Taiwan should 'resume talks on an equal footing asap', Hu told former chairman of Taiwan's main opposition party... Taiwan's policy-making Mainland Affairs Council dismissed Hu's overtures... 'While Communist China talks about peaceful development across the Strait, it refuses dialogue and consultation, continues its military deployment against Taiwan and threatens peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait', council said in a statement. Throughout his speech, Hu stressed importance of peace between mainland and island... 'We will fulfil our promises to Taiwan compatriots. There will be no change just because of momentary fluctuations in the situation or a small group of people interfering in or sabotaging' ties, Hu said without elaborating"; AP"China President Calls for New Taiwan Talks"NYT 16 Apr 06:-"Hu Jintao urged Taiwan's leaders to agree to new talks, while calling island's independence advocates a danger to region's peace... Taiwan likely will be one of the prickly topics during Hu's visit to the White House...The two sides [Beijing-Taipei] have not had official high-level contacts of any kind since the late 1990s"; Reuters"China Allows Tour Groups to Taiwan"NYT 17 Apr 06:-"China issued new rules allowing mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, continuing Beijing's efforts to court the disputed island with economic overtures, but it was unclear when any Chinese tourism to the island would start. The new rules... allow authorized mainland travel agencies to organize group tours to Taiwan. Taiwan travel services must also win approval from Chinese agencies to host mainland tourists... Both China and Taiwan place tight restrictions on mainland visits to the island. The trickle of mainlanders now able to travel there is tiny compared to the 4.1m trips to the mainland last year by Taiwan people, many of them investors... But it was unclear how soon such tours could start - the two sides have already wrangled over arrangements, and political tensions remain high"; Reuters"Chinese Leader to Begin U.S. Visit Today"NYT 18 Apr 06:-"[Chinese president Hu] wants Bush to offer some assurance that US will give no leeway to Taiwan's independence-leaning president... Beijing fears Chen may use remaining two years of his presidency to push Taiwan closer to full independence... Taiwan...urged Washington not to criticize its president or undermine its democracy during summit. But reassurance, not threats, will be Hu's theme in US"; Joseph Kahn"Bush and Hu Vow New Cooperation" NYT 20 Apr 06:-"President Bush and China's president, Hu Jintao, pledged to cooperate more closely on fighting nuclear proliferation and reducing trade imbalances, but broke no new ground on the most delicate issues that divide the two nations... A White House announcer introducing the national anthems... mistakenly referred to China as the Republic of China, which is formal name of its archrival, Taiwan... China treats US support for Taiwan... as the biggest irritant in bilateral relations. Even minuscule changes in the wording of diplomatic statements on the subject are often viewed as transformative on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. [Bush] acknowledged that the two men 'do not agree on everything' but said, 'We're able to discuss our disagreements in a spirit of friendship and cooperation'. Hu also acknowledged that 'different opinions or even frictions' had complicated the relationship. But he emphasized that China believed that the areas of agreement outweighed the differences... Hu said multnational talks to end North Korea's nuclear program had run into difficulties, but he did not outline new steps that China would take to bring North Korea back to the bargaining table. Bush urged him to do more to use China's 'considerable influence' to get results after years of inconclusive diplomacy"; AP"Trade Gap and Currency Top Bush, Hu Agenda"NYT 20 Apr 06:-"President Bush greeted Chinese President Hu Jintao at White House with direct appeals for more help on easing nuclear standoffs with Iran and North Korea... Reciting a specific list of US concerns, Bush... urged those on both sides of the Taiwan Strait 'to avoid confrontational or provocative acts'. Hu responded to Bush's litany of concerns with a pledge to help in working diplomatically to ease nuclear tensions with both North Korea and Iran... As to Taiwan, Hu said the self-governing island 'is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. We will continue to make every effort and endeavour with every sincerity to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification of the two sides'"; AP"Text: President Bush and China's Hu Jintao"NYT 20 Apr 06:-"[Bush:]'... I appreciate China's role as the host of the six-party talks, which will be successful only if North Korea makes the right strategic decision: to abandon all its nuclear weapons and its existing nuclear programs as pledged to the other five parties. I'll continue to seek President Hu's advice and cooperation, and urge his nation to use its considerable influence with North Korea to make meaningful progess toward a Korean Peninsula that is free of nuclear weapons... US will also be candid about our policy toward Taiwan. United States maintains our one-China policy based on the three communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act. We oppose unilateral changes in the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by either side. We urge all parties to avoid confrontational or provocative acts. And we believe the future of Taiwan should be resolved peacefully'... [Hu:]'... We are ready to continue to work with US side and other parties concerned to peacefully resolve the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula... through diplomatic negotiation, to uphold the international nonproliferation regime and to safeguard global peace and stability... President Bush, you and US government have stated on various occasions that you are committed to the one-China policy, abide by the three Sino-US joint communiques, and oppose Taiwan independence. We appreciate your commitments. Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. We will continue to make every effort and endeavour with every sincerity to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification of the two sides across the Taiwan Straits. We will work with our Taiwan compatriots to promote the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations. However, we will never allow anyone to make Taiwan secede from China by any means'..."; AP"Chinese Media Ignore White House Gaffes"NYT 21 Apr 06:-"[There was not any Chinese] government or state media comment on a White House announcer who referred to China as the 'Republic of China', the official name of rival Taiwan, instead of People's Republic of China. The gaffes were unlikely to sour Chinese leaders on the visit... Chinese government billed Hu's trip as a chance to talk directly with Bush about trade and political disputes. It also was a chance to press Beijing's views on Taiwan, the self-ruled island that it claims as its own territory"; Joseph Kahn"U.S. Says No to Overnight Stay for Taiwanese Leader"NYT 04 May 06:-"Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, delayed an overseas trip at last minute after US denied him permission to stop overnight on US soil, a diplomatic setback for the independence-leaning Taiwanese leader. The rebuke suggests that Bush administration remains displeased by Chen's move in Feb to abolish a government agency set up to study reunification with mainland China. Washington is also eager to avoid antagonizing China after a troubled visit to US by its president, Hu Jintao... Beijing's willingness to follow Washington's lead on issues often depends on whether it perceives US as helping to check Taiwan's independence drive. Chen, who has boasted of the support his democratically elected government enjoys in Washington, had hoped to make an overnight visit to New York, San Francisco or Houston on his way to visit Taiwanese allies in Central and South America, Taiwanese officials/media reports said. He would likely have used such an unofficial stopover to meet members of Congress, grant press interviews and greet supporters of Taiwan. But Washington withheld ... and then limited his itinerary to a brief refueling stop in either Hawaii or Alaska, denying him a high-profile platform in the continental US... Taiwan's FM, James Huang,.. blamed China rather than US... Huang implied that China had pressured US to deny access to Chen as price for its support on curtailing nuclear programs in Iran/North Korea and addressing the humanitarian crisis in Sudan... Bush administration recently has had cooler relations with Chen... Taiwanese leader was especially eager to visit US on this trip because Hu just made his maiden voyage to Washington as China's president. Moreover, Bush administration recently gave a warm reception to leader of Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party, who says he plans to pursue a less confrontational policy with China if elected president in 2008"; Reuters"Snubbed Taiwan President Rejects US Transit Offer"NYT 04 May 06:-"Taiwan's independence-leaning president turned down Washington's offer of a refuelling stop in far-flung Alaska, a day after the island's closest ally scotched his plans for an overnight stay in New York. President Chen made no mention of the apparent rift with US before leaving for visits to Paraguay and Costa Rica, and instead blamed China for 'trampling on the dignity' of Taiwan's people. 'China's suppression against Taiwan has gone from bad to worse', he said. 'China should not push Taiwan into a corner, leaving Taiwan without a living space in the international community'... [Taiwan] media said Chen had hoped to stop in New York to score diplomatic points after Chinese President Hu Jintao's trip to US... However, there have been signs of strain between Taipei and its main arms supplier since Feb, when Chen scrapped a dormant but politically significant council on eventual reunification with China... Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang... called Chen's visit a major diplomatic setback"; AP"Taiwan Leader Rejects Offer of U.S. Stop"NYT 04 May 06:-"Taiwan president will not fly through US during his trip to Latin America, FM said, signaling a rift between Taipei and its longtime ally Washington... Chen... slammed rival China for applying pressure on US to resist transit stops by Taiwanese leader... 'We will not be defeated but will become bolder. The more we are suppressed, the more we will try to walk out'"; AP"Taiwanese President to Forgo U.S. Stop"NYT 09 May 06:-"Taiwan President Chen said he will forgo an offer by US to stop in Alaska on his return home from Latin America, but denied it signaled a crisis in relations with Washington... Chen said the spat over transit routes will not affect Taipei's ties with Washington, its major international ally"; AP"Taiwan President on Surprise Libya Visit"NYT 11 May 06:-"Taiwan's President Chen made a surprise visit to Libya... after he turned down offer to make a refueling stop in Alaska in an apparent sign of diplomatic pique... Taiwan's...FM [said] the Libya visit aimed at fostering economic ties... Also said Libyan authorities had resisted pressure from rival Beijing to bar Chen's visit... In Jan, Chen received an invitation to meet with Gahdafi"; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Makes Surprise Libya Visit"NYT 11 May 06:-"Taiwan president made surprise transit stop in Libya on his way home from Latin America and met with family members of leader Muammar Gaddafi, a visit likely to displease its giant neighbour China...which has diplomatic ties with Tripoli...and views any country that plays host to Chen as encouraging his vision of a separate identity... Chen had originally been scheduled to fly home via Abu Dhabi... Libya broke off diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1978... Chen had hoped to stop in Beirut on his way to Latin America but said request had been denied under pressure from Beijing"; Reuters“Taiwan’s Chen Seen in Diplomatic Victory Over China”NYT 12 May 06:-“Taiwan president returns home from a Latin American visit after surprise stops in Libya and Indonesia that gave him a modest diplomatic victory over China but drew words of caution from US... ‘We want to be supportive of Taiwan while we’re not encouraging those that try to move toward independence’, said State Department’s number two diplomat who is charge of a new US strategic dialogue with China... Chen...kept his transit destinations a secret until his arrivals to avoid interference from China, which was strongly dissatisfied with Libya and warned of a negative impact to bilateral ties. It has made no comment on Indonesia stopover as yet”; Reuters“Taiwan May End Up with Pyrrhic Diplomatic Victory” NYT 13 May 06:-“Taiwan president may have pulled off a diplomatic victory over China during his just concluded overseas trip, but it also laid bare the new realities of the island’s once-warm relationship with Washington... Ties have frayed since the early days of George W.Bush’s presidency when Chen was allowed to transit in the US financial capital in 2001 and 2003, and the US leader pledged to do whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself... However, the US snub appeared to be a blessing in disguise when Chen made surprise transit stopovers in Libya and Indonesia, which recognize Beijing but not Taipei. The stops [that] riled China [were] also a boon for [Chen’s] Democratic Progressive Party which is trying to find a candidate capable of defeating the popular Nationalist front-runner Ma Ying-jeou in the 2008 presidential elections. But the victory may be Pyrrhic, analysts said, if relations with Taiwan’s main arms supplier and trading partner were strained and Washington stepped up pressure to thwart his independence dreams... US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick... told a US congressional hearing last week that Taiwan will ‘keep hitting into a wall’ if it continues to test the ‘one China’ policy under which Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Zoellick also warned that Taiwan independence meant war with China, risking the lives of US soldiers, as he defended the administration against criticism by US lawmakers for treating Chen i[n] a ‘disgraceful’ way... But Taipei-Washington military and trade ties will remain unchanged due to Taiwan’s geopolitical importance, analysts said”; Economist 13 May 06“Paraguay: Charity or China?”(47):-“Of the 25 countries around the world, all smallish, which choose to recognise Taiwan rather than China, almost half are in Latin America or Caribbean. In past, their motives were often rooted in shared anti-communism. Nowadays, usually a matter of money. So it is with Paraguay. When Chen ...visited the landlocked South American republic, he paid homage to origins of their friendship,.. going out of his way to greet grandson of Alfredo Stroessner, Paraguay’s fascistic dictator 1954-89. In past few years, Taiwan has given Paraguay grants of $30m for public housing and $20m for a new Congress building. Other donations... pay for scholarships. Two Taiwanese banks offered a $400m loan, making the island Paraguay’s biggest bilateral creditor... Taiwanese investment comprises little more than an ailing industrial park - partly because skilled labour is short. Taiwanese experts have passed on technical advice... Meanwhile, China looms larger. Last year, it supplied 25% of Paraguay’s imports, second only to Brazil. It buys much of the country’s soya crop”; AP“U.S. Asks China to Watch Military Exercise”NYT 15 May 06:-“[US] admiral... invited Chinese commanders to observe US military exercise in an effort to build ties, but he said process will not succeed without similar gestures by Beijing... Commander of US Pacific forces said... urged Chinese military leaders to help open direct communications and build confidence between the two militaries, which have only sporadic contacts... Chinese officials expressed interest in closer ties but did not immediately respond to invitation to attend exercises... They expressed dismay at Pentagon report calling Beijing a potential military threat... Bush administration has called for closer military ties, but some US officials complain China’s military is too secretive and reluctant to reciprocate tours of sensitive US facilities with equal access to Chinese command centers... A 2000 law limits US cooperation with the People’s Liberation Army to humanitarian, disaster relief and other non-warfare activities... Despite public expressions of suspicion and different political systems, the two sides appear to be ready for more regular interaction... The 2.3m-member PLA is the world’s largest fighting force, and Beijing has alarmed its neighbours with double-digit spending increases nearly every year for a decade. Beijing has tried to allay such fears by saying much of its spending is defensive. But PLA... has hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan”; Reuters“China Rejects Taiwan WHO Participation Bid”NYT 19 May 06:-“China has rejected a renewed bid by Taiwan for meaningful participation in the World Health Organization (WHO), insisting that membership in the body should be limited to sovereign states. Taiwan President Chen... in videoconference with European health officials, pressed case for observer status in World Health Assembly and participation in other specific mechanisms of WHO, saying it was a missing link in the global health and medical system. ‘WHO is a special institution of UN that can be joined only by sovereign states’, Chinese FM spokesman said in statement. [It] said that, given an existing framework for allowing Taiwanese health experts’ participation in certain WHO technical activities, no ‘missing links’ arose from Taiwan’s current level of participation in the body. Asserted... Taiwanese authorities had used excuse of health issues to support ‘secessionist’ activities. ‘Such a political attempt will not succeed’... China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its territory, and opposes its participation in most international organizations”; Economist 13 May 06"Special Report: Japan and its Neighbours: A Giant Stirs, A Region Bridles" (25-7);"Japan's Succession: After He's Gone" (51):-"More and more Japanese want their country to have a normal foreign and defence policy. US agrees. China and South Korea aren't so sure... Security perceptions in East Asia are fluid indeed, and so are the realities. China's attempts to modernise its armed forces have brought big increases in defence spending... Lack of openness that accompanies [this] may reflect the backwardness more than potency of army... Profound changes also under way in armed forces of Japan and US[, and they] have at last reached agreement on how to refresh their long-standing alliance...New agreement completes most sweeping reorganization of US forces in Pacific since Vietnam war... US believes it will be able to react faster to wider range of possible emergencies - a crisis involving North Korea, say, or Taiwan, or an act of terrorism that might perhaps threaten crucial shipping of South-East Asia... While US keeps Japan as its main base in Asia, Japan will play a much greater part in its own defence[, which] could mean equally profound transformation of Japanese armed forces[: their] sweeping reorganisation...puts navy/army/air force under single command for first time since WWII... Japan now says considers Taiwan to be security concern shared in common with US... Yet Japan's military modernisation is rubbing up against limits of constitution...Japan's leaders now see that national interest may sometimes lie far from home... So constitutional debate, including possible rewriting pacifist Article 9, now on political agenda[51]. [But] closest neighbours view prospects of a more activist Japan with rising alarm. Policymakers in China and South Korea claim to detect in Japan's push for 'normalisation' the dangerous rearming of historical foe/colonial overlord. Much of this is overblown... Problem is that normalisation of Japan's defence not matched by what could be called normalisation of its nationalism...Consequence is that Japan unable to take any regional initiative... Plainly, repairs needed, and suggestions been forthcoming. Include joint history projects that might attempt to reach consensus about past; more regional forums; national debate in Japan about how to honour [war]dead and guard sense of national identity without inflaming neighbours...So there's chance Japan and neighbours could start to put their problems behind them. But no more than that for now"; Thom Shanker“U.S. Questions China on Arms Buildup”NYT 23 May 06:-“China’s leadership has not satisfactorily explained its military expansion and goals, even as it modernizes its forces to be able to challenge foreign armed forces operating in region, Defense Department said in report released [23 May, widely called Pentagon report but approved across US government and available www.defenselink.mil/pubs.]. ‘China’s leaders have yet to adequately explain purposes or desired end-states of their military expansion’, according to 2006 report ‘Military Power of the People’s Republic of China’. ‘Estimates place Chinese defense expenditure at two to three times officially disclosed figures’. The 50-page report... includes list of new Chinese weaponry and describes among other things modernization of China’s ballistic missile force. But it balances its cautionary language about military competition with China with carefully chosen words expressing optimism for harmonious relations with Beijing. In past years, report... sparking annual round of analysis/criticism from US that, in turn, has prompted annual response of criticism/analysis from China. Report comes as Bush administration works to entice China into partnership to halt nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea... ‘US welcomes rise of a peaceful/prosperous China’, report said. ‘US policy encourages China to participate as responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for health/success of global system from which China has derived great benefit’. Chinese military, according to report, has embarked on long-term effort to change from large army designed for wars of attrition on its home territory into ‘a more modern force capable of fighting short-duration, high-intensity conflicts against high-tech adversaries’. While acknowledging China has only limited ability to sustain military operations at great distances, report also states Chinese armed forces have potential to compete with US by fielding ‘disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional US military advantages’. What that means in near term, report added, is that China will continue its efforts to build up its forces across strait from Taiwan, which Beijing considers a runaway province, even as it is ‘generating capabilities that could apply to other regional contingencies, such as conflicts over resources or territory’. China had by last year deployed 710 to 790 short-range ballistic missiles across from Taiwan... Report details trends in China’s ability to deny other armed forces access across region by a combination of strike aircraft, submarines and precision missiles. Report argues that those weapons ‘have potential to pose credible threats to modern militaries operating in region’... ‘Several aspects of China’s military development have surprised US analysts’, report said, ‘including pace and scope of its strategic forces modernization’. ‘Strategic forces’ applies to long-range nuclear weapons. China is modernizing its longer-range ballistic missiles by upgrading some systems and replacing others with mobile, quick-launch models, report said. Report is based on evidence that Chinese are ‘at beginning of some serious modernization of their overall strategic forces’, said Rodman, assistant secretary of defense. Chinese officials have dismissed warnings about its military modernization, saying China pursuing national security interests and protecting its territory as any large nation would, and that its military constitutes no threat to US soil”; Reuters“Pentagon Urges China to Explain Military Buildup”NYT 23 May 06:-“China’s military buildup has altered Asia-Pacific power balances and could pose threats to other forces, Pentagon said in annual report that repeated US calls for Beijing to explain its actions. China’s military modernization retains its long-standing focus on Taiwan... But China’s years of double-digit growth in arms spending and new missiles, ships and aircraft meant it could project power farther afield,.. report said... China was on track to build ‘a force capable of prosecuting a range of military operations in Asia - well beyond Taiwan - potentially posing a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region’, it said. Most striking new development... was China’s commitment to building up its strategic arsenal,.. Rodman told reporters. ‘We sense they are at beginning of some serious modernization of their overall strategic forces, quantitatively and qualitatatively’, he said... Report noted with approval China’s globally oriented diplomacy, including its hosting of six-party talks aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear arms programs... But it said China had not used all its clout with North Korea... China publicly retracted a Jul 05 comment by a Chinese general threatening to use nuclear weapons if US forces intervened in a Taiwan conflict, but... ‘value of China’s current “no first use” nuclear policy is broader than previously assessed’, report said. [B]allistic missiles opposite Taiwan adding about 100 a year, report said. Taipei’s defense spending has declined, shifting the Taiwan Strait military balance in China’s favor, analysis said. ‘Balance between Beijing and Taiwan is heading in wrong direction unless (Taiwanese) unify behind a stronger commitment to defense’, Rodman warned. US is obliged by law to help Taiwan defend itself and offered Taiwan extensive arms package in 2001. Budget for those weapons has yet to be debated in Taiwan’s parliament”; AP“China: Military Buildup Is Defensive”NYT 24 May 06:-“China angrily rejected a US Defense Department report that says Beijing is a potential military threat, insisting that its multibillion-dollar buildup is defensive. Beijing is ‘strongly resentful of and firmly opposed to’ the comments in an annual Pentagon report on Chinese military power, state media quoted FM spokesman as saying... ‘China is a peace-loving nation and has insisted on a way of peaceful development, with a national defense policy that is defensive in nature’, news report quoted [spokesman] as saying... It reported military budget rose more than 14% this year to $35.3 billion, but outside estimates of China’s true spending are up to three times that level. One of Beijing’s key short-term goals is to back up its threat to invade Taiwan”; Reuters“Taiwan President’s Son - in - Law Held in Scandal”NYT 25 May 06:-“Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s son-in-law was detained after marathon questioning on suspicion of insider trading in a scandal that has sparked opposition calls for embattled leader’s resignation. It was first time a member of Taiwan’s first family was held on suspicion of breaking the law... Chen, whose approval rating has sunk to new lows, reiterated he ‘respected the judiciary’s/bureau’s independence 100%’ and would not cover up wrongdoing... Some deputies from the main opposition Nationalist Party have called for Chen’s ouster, but party chairman Ma Ying-jeou, who plans to run for president in 2008, said such a move was not feasible and would divert attention away from the scandal. Chen marked his sixth year in office by apologizing over the scandal - bad news for [Democratic Progressive Party] ahead of mayoral elections in island’s two biggest cities in Dec 06"; AP“China Highlights Plans for High - Tech Army”NYT 26 May 06:-“China plans to accelerate efforts to modernize the world’s largest army, state media reported a day after Beijing rejected a Pentagon report describing China as a potential military threat. China has long vowed to upgrade the 3.5m-strong People’s Liberation Army, which lags decades behind the US military in terms of technology and reach... Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense issued a 15-year plan approved by President Hu Jintao for developing high-tech industries for both military and civilian purposes... Plan also aims to further develop manufacturing technology for military industries, apparently to lessen China’s dependance on Russia for high-tech weaponry. Some of the projects are already under way. They include development of large aircraft, pressurized water nuclear reactors and high temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power stations”; Reuters “Taiwan President Struggles to Shake Off Scandal”NYT 28 May 06:-“Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is struggling to weather a political crisis amid attacks from the opposition and even factions of his own party after his son-in-law was detained on suspicion of insider trading”;Reuters“Taiwan Opposition Waits for Scandals to Snowball”NYT 30 May 06:-“Taiwan’s biggest opposition party is waiting for scandals besetting President Chen... to snowball and implicate other members of the first family before seeking his ouster, party leader Ma Ying-jeou said”; AP“Taiwan Premier Takes Control of Government”NYT 31 May 06:-“Taiwan’s president has handed over day-to-day control of island’s government to the premier in wake of a series of scandals, presidential spokesman said. President Chen’s son-in-law was arrested last week on insider trading charges after earlier allegations Chen’s wife received favors in real estate deal”;Reuters“Taiwan President Cedes Some Powers to Premier”NYT 01 Jun 06:-“Taiwan President Chen ...has ceded some powers to premier in an attempt to deflect growing pressure from supporters and opponents alike to resign, but media said it was not enough... Premier Su Tseng-chang would be wholly responsible for appointing cabinet ministers and setting government policy”; Reuters “Taiwan Opposition Piles Pressure on Chen to Quit”NYT 02 Jun 06:-“Taiwan’s second biggest opposition party sought to ratchet up pressure on President Chen to stand down in face of a deepening political crisis, announcing plans for protest outside his office. Chen agreed this week to share power with Premier Su and approved resignations of his closest aides in attempt to deflect growing pressure from supporters and opponents alike to resign”; AP“Taiwan Opposition Backs President’s Recall”NYT 07 Jun 06:-“Taiwan’s main opposition party voted [07 Jun] to support a referendum to oust embattled President Chen, signalling a period of uncertainty for island of 23m people. Chen, who is to complete his presidency in 2008, is facing mounting pressure over allegations that his wife and son-in-law used his position for personal gain”; Reuters“Thousands in Taiwan Protest Call on Chen to Quit”NYT 10 Jun 06:-“Thousands of people took to streets of Taiwan’s capital [10 Jun] for second consecutive weekend, calling for President Chen to quit over a deepening financial scandal involving his family members... Analysts say protests are maintaining pressure on Chen, whose approval rating has dived to record lows, and on investigators to press on with a probe into alleged financial wrongdoings”; AP “20,000 Call for Taiwanese Leader to Quit”NYT 10 Jun 06:-“Some 20,000 Taiwanese demonstrated in the capital, demanding president resign over allegations some of his relatives engaged in insider trading”; Keith Bradsher “Lawmakers Weigh Taiwan Leader’s Recall”NYT 13 Jun 06:-“Legislature agreed to hold a special session from today until the end of the month to debate a possible referendum to recall President Chen Shui-bian... Approval would require a two-thirds majority, and parties supporting the president hold almost half the seats in the legislature”; AP “Taiwan Lawmakers Agree on Recall Hearings”NYT 13 Jun 06:-“Taiwanese lawmakers agreed to hold hearings on a possible recall of President Chen... Legislators move further deepened the political crisis for the leader of one of Asia’s youngest democracies... Legislators voted 113-96 to have a screening committee - including opposition and ruling party members - begin hearings on whether Chen should be recalled... Rallying enough support for the referendum will likely be difficult because opposition... would need the support of 25 ruling party members and 10 independent legislators to achieve the two-thirds majority required to send the recall issue to voters”; Reuters “Taiwan MPs Set Ball Rolling to Oust President”NYT 13 Jun 06:-“Opposition legislators launched a motion to oust President Chen at a special session of parliament, turning up the heat over a series of scandals involving Chen’s family and former aides. While the recall is unlikely to pass, it deepens a political crisis that has pushed Chen’s public approval ratings to record lows and weighed heavily on Taiwan’s stock and foreign exchange markets... Opposition lawmakers hope the recall process will produce evidence of wrongdoing and stiffen anti-Chen sentiment among the public”; AP “Taiwan Launches Charter Flights With China”NYT 14 Jun 06:-“Taiwan and China said they’ve agreed to launch direct charter passenger flights between them during major holidays, a key trust-building step toward restoring regular direct flights cut five decades ago amid civil war. Negotiators have also reached a ‘tentative consensus’ on allowing Taiwanese companies to use special chartered cargo flights to fly goods and equipment between the two sides... Announcement was a major development for the two sides. [B]efore, the service has been inconsistent and limited to the Lunar New Year... The new charter flights would serve four annual holidays... The Taiwanese have said that the direct flights pose a serious security threat, but improvements in radar technology have lessened the danger... Some analysts think Beijing plans to use booming business ties between the two sides to gradually absorb the island, just 100 miles off the mainland’s southern coast”; Keith Bradsher “Besieged Taiwan Leader Sets Deal on China Flights”NYT 14 Jun 06:-“Facing an attempt in the legislature to pass a referendum on recalling the president, [Taiwan] government unexpectedly announced it has reached a deal with Beijing to allow many charter flights to and from mainland China. The agreement is the latest of several signs that relations between Taipei and Beijing may be thawing, a change that has occurred as a political crisis surrounding the president has deepened... Taiwan and the mainland agreed to allow up to 168 roundtrip charter passenger flights annually during four public holidays... Chartered cargo and aid flights will also be permitted throughout the year... Only 173,000 mainlanders to Taiwan last year, while 4.1 million Taiwanese to the mainland”; Economist 17 Jun 06“Taiwan: Shui-bian Agonistes”(48):-“But president should survive... Chen Shui-bian’s political fortunes have been at a low ebb for months. [T]ook a turn for worse as legislature started proceedings to recall him... He is most unlikely to lose his job, but for his remaining two years in office the president’s authority could be seriously diminished. China is watching warily. Normally eager to highlight Chen’s difficulties, official newspapers have said little about the attempts by opposition to unseat him. Taiwan’s raucous but democratic handling of corruption scandals is not an example that Chinese leaders are anxious to promote... No specific charges of wrongdoing have been laid against Chen himself[, and he] tried to deflect criticism by announcing... he would delegate more power to PM. But president’s job does not appear to be in jeopardy. [L]egislature... unlikely to build consensus necessary to achieve this. Two-thirds of legislators need to approve a recall, which would then have to be endorsed by half of voters in a referendum with at least 50% turnout”; AP“Thousands of Taiwanese Rally for President”NYT 17 Jun 06:-“Thousands of Taiwanese turned out for a street rally supporting their president, but the protest was smaller than one earlier this month by those who want him to resign... The pro-Chen protesters were bused in from cities around the island... Neither the president nor other high-ranking officials appeared at the rally”; Reuters “Taiwan Chen’s Popularity Improves Slightly: Poll”NYT 19 Jun 06:-“Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s popularity has risen slightly since May, a poll showed, but more than half the respondents felt he was unfit to rule. The survey... found that 28% were satisfied with Chen’s performance as president, up from 21% in May... The rise could provide a crumb of comfort for Chen who has faced relentless pressure from the opposition for him to quit over financial scandals implicating family and senior aides. The number of people dissatisfied with Chen dropped to 56% from 61% over the same period”; AP “Taiwan’s President Strikes Back at Critics”NYT 20 Jun 06:-“Taiwan’s president struck back at the opposition’s campaign to recall him, saying in TV address that his rivals were falsely accusing his wife of corruption and that their bid to oust him had no merit. Presient Chen worked his way through a long list of arguments the opposition has used to justify the campaign to sack him with two years left in his second term”; AP“Chinese Observers Watch U.S. Wargames”NYT 20 Jun 06:-“For the first time, Chinese military officers are observing US war games in the Pacific, where the two countries have potential conflicts over Taiwan and Beijing’s territorial claims... ‘The invitation to observe the US military exercises is a very important component of exchanges between the militaries of China and US’, Xinhua said, quoting an unnamed [Chinese] Defense Ministry official. ‘This is not only beneficial to mutual understanding and confidence-building, but it is also beneficial to mutual study and reference, and for advancing the continued development of our militaries’, the official was quoted as saying... China has threatened to use force to assert its claim to Taiwan, a US ally that Washington is legally bound to respond to if threatened. China also says it owns islands in the South China Sea that are also claimed by nations friendly to US”; AP “Pro - Chen Lawmakers Skip Debate on Recall”NYT 21 Jun 06:-“Lawmakers in Taiwan’s ruling party boycotted a debate on whether to hold a referendum on recalling President Chen because of alleged family corruption and incompetence... The Cabinet announced that ministers would not appear at the recall debates despite request from lawmakers to face questioning. Opposition leader Ma Ying-jeou urged the ruling party lawmakers to join the recall movement and stand on the side of justice and clean government... Nationalist leader Ma... gave a televised rebuttal to Chen’s speech”; AP “Asia Watches U.S. in Korea Missile Impasse”NYT 24 Jun 06:-“Many Asian nations would cheer if US shot down a long-range missile tested by North Korea, but a failure would raise unsettling questions for allies that rely on US military umbrella... Andrew Yang, a senior analyst at the Chinese Center for Advanced Policy Studies in Taiwan, said failing to hit the missile would be a colossal embarrassment for Washington and would fuel doubts about the missile defense system’s role in regional security. He said Taiwanese are watching how the situation plays out because the island might have to rely on US forces in case China’s military tried to forcibly reunite Taiwan with the mainland regime... Knocking down North Korea’s missile ‘would send a clear message that US would not be threatened by belligerent military actions’, Yang said. ‘It would send the message that US is willing to defend its allies in the region’... Yang said China wouldn’t want to see US forces try to down the missile. ‘The bottom line for China is that they don’t want any escalation of tension in the region’, he said”; Reuters“Taiwan Signature Drive Seeks President’s Removal”NYT 26 Jun 06:-“Taiwan’s opposition has gathered about 1.67 million signatures calling on President Chen to resign on the eve of parliamentary vote seeking to oust him over a series of scandals... Taiwan has population of about 23m... The scandals have pummeled Chen’s approval rating, spawned political uncertainty and battered the stock market and Taiwan dollar... Analysts say that even if Chen manages to ride out his remaining two years in office, he is already a lame duck”; Reuters“Taiwan MPs Vote on Referendum to Oust President”NYT 26 Jun 06:-“Taiwan’s parliament gathered to vote on opposition motion to oust President Chen as thousands protested outside... Barbed-wire barricades were set up [and] up to 5,000 policemen were mobolised to maintain order... Vote has no direct impact on relations with China, [b]ut the extended crisis may further weaken chances of Chen, who has been a thorn in Beijing’s side, mending fences with China in his remaining two years in office... Deputies from Chen’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) boycotted the vote”; Reuters“Taiwan’s Chen Survives Vote”NYT 27 Jun 06:-“Scandal-plagued Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian survived an unprecedented parliamentary vote aimed at unseating him on [27 Jun], and immediately offered to mend fences with both Beijing and the island’s opposition. Thousands of Chen supporters and opponents protested outside parliament, but... no clashes were reported... As expected, the main opposition Nationalist Party and the splinter People First Party lacked the necessary two-thirds majority to authorize a referendum on whether to sack Chen... The parliamentary vote had no direct bearing on relations with China... Nonetheless, Chen, long a thorn in China’s side, extended an olive branch to Beijing... But analysts say Chen’s worst political crisis since 2000 may further weaken his chances of reconciliation with China during his remaining two years in office... The drive to oust Chen is far from over”; AP “Report: Vatican Delegation in Beijing”NYT 27 Jun 06:-“Two senior Vatican officials were in Beijing for talks on re-establishing diplomatic relations with China that were severed more than five decades ago, a Hong Kong newspaper said... Such a visit could mean a deal for the Holy See to switch diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taiwan was in sight. Mainland claims Taiwan as part of its territory and refuses to have relations with any nation that recognizes the self-ruled island’s popularly elected government... A major stumbling block for the resumption of Sino-Vatican ties is a dispute over who has the power to appoint bishops. Holy See has said it wants final say on appointments but is willing to listen to China’s opinion”; Reuters“Taiwan Political Crisis Far From Over”NYT 28 Jun 06:-“Taiwan’s scandal-plagued President Chen has staved off an unprecedented parliamentary vote to unseat him, but his woes and the island’s political crisis are far from over... People First Party (PFP), Taiwan’s second-biggest opposition party, is struggling for survival and has no qualms about initiating a vote of no-confidence against the cabinet. A no-confidence vote would force Chen to either form a coalition government by naming an opposition politician as premier or dissolve parliament and call snap elections. PFP chairman... is convinced snap elections will see the opposition win the two-thirds majority needed to ‘recall’ Chan... A no-confidence vote against the government complicates matters and risks splitting the Nationalists and the PFP over who becomes the new premier if Chen gives in”; AP “Taiwan President Promises to Pursue Reform”NYT 03 Jul 06:-“President Chen pledged to do a better job in his remaining two years in office, after surviving an opposition-backed move to recall him... ‘I solemnly declare that in my remaining two years I will reflect on myself and pursue reform’, he said... In his remarks at the Academia Sinica, Chen vowed to try to narrow the divide between native-born Taiwanese - descendants of people who came to the island from China in the 17th and 18th centuries - and the families of those who arrived following the communist victory on the mainland in 1949"; Reuters “Taiwan to Test - Fire Missile: Report”NYT 06 Jul 06:-“Taiwan plans to test-fire a missile capable of hitting China, alarming the island’s main ally, US, a cable news network said. The Hsiung Feng III, developed by Taiwan’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, has a range of 600 km (360 miles) and is accurate to within half a meter, ETTV said, quoting unnamed military sources. That range would put areas along China’s coast from Fuzhou in Fujian Province to Nan’ao in Guangdong within striking distance of the missile... A defense ministry spokesman declined to comment. A spokeswoman for China’s FM also declined to comment. China...has deployed nearly 800 short-range ballistic missiles aimed at the self-ruled island in case it formally declares independence. Taiwan successfully test-fired the missile last year, local media have reported... US...has expressed its concern to Taiwan government, the Web site said”; Economist 08 Jul 06"North Korea's Missiles: Rocket Man"(Edit.9);"North Korea: Kim Jong Il Goes Ballistic"(36-7):-though drafted before 5-veto-affected United Nations Security Council (UNSC) seriously criticized the missile-showoff/ threatener unanimously, the text identifies its Pacific/ relevant intentions and fears. From Editorial: "North...launched Taepodong rocket/half a dozen others ...calculated to blast a hole in diplomatic effort... to get Kim Jong Il's regime to give up its nuclear bomb-building. Bigger worry [:]will incinerate wider efforts to stabilise region full of dangerous rivalries... Hermit Kingdom often seems more tragi-comic than threatening. [C]hief dangers regime poses to outsiders often accidental: that rockets will unintentionally hit Japan or that North's economy will collapse... Yet still grounds for worry[:] latest Taedopong missile, if it can be made to work, might reach parts of North America. Unlikely [Kim] would be able to put a nuclear warhead on such a device[, b]ut no one knows for sure... So what is Kim up to?.. Display partly a rocket-fuelled raspberry at [US]. May...have been...demonstration for [sale of] North Korean missiles. But Kim's biggest target surely the six-way talks[: he] wants to be treated more like Iran or India [and] accepted by US as a nuclear power and still rewarded. Where things go from here depends largely on China [- which] could shoulder some real responsibility for security in East Asia/close ranks against Kim. Could start with clear condemnation from UNSC [as China ensured]. But should go further...China props up Kim regime. Holding back largesse would show him that he cannot destabilise neighbourhood and get away with it. A lot more than the awkward Kim's future depends on it". Several of the arguments put forward by Economist are relevant to the Taiwan issue; AP “Taiwan President’s Son - In - Law Indicted”NYT 10 Jul 06:-“The son-in-law of President Chen was indicted on insider trading charges, one of several high-profile corruption cases involving Chen’s family and inner circle. Chao Chien-min, a 34-year-old physician, was arrested in May on suspicion he used insider information to profit on the purchase of shares in Taiwan Development Corp., a property company partly owned by the state... The scandal followed opposition charges that Chen’s wife received free vouchers from the management of an upscale Taipei department store”; Reuters“Taiwan’s Chen Seeks Party Support”NYT 17 Jul 06:-“Taiwan President Chen will meet senior member of his ruling party and lawmakers to fend off mounting calls for him to step down over a string of financial scandals. Pressure on Chen is building as supporters of DPP join opposition demands that he resign. A group of prominent scholars with close ties to DPP... announced that they had signed a petition urging him to go... Chen met his former advisers, who told the president it was necessary for him to step down, officials said”; AP “Japan, U.S. to Deploy Missile Interceptors”NYT 20 Jul 06:-“... US government will have Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles operational by the end of the year and post 600 more troops on Okinawa... PAC-3 are designed to intercept ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or aircraft. US also has Patriots in South Korea... PAC-3 missiles have also been deployed in Taiwan”; AP“Revelations of Spy Links Set Taiwan Abuzz”NYT 20 Jul 06:-“A veteran [US] State Department officer takes up with a beautiful Taiwanese spy. FBI agents observe them in intimate circumstances in the man’s car. He gives her the lowdown on a crucial US-China summit meeting. Those are only a few of the sultry details in a US government memorandum... Major Taiwanese newspapers published their own stories”; AP“Taiwan Holds Drill for Chinese Invasion”NYT 20 Jul 06:-“Patriot missiles streaked across the light-blue Asian sky and F-16s bombarded ships as Taiwan beat back a simulated Chinese invasion in the island’s largest-ever military exercise. The ‘Chinese Glory’ maneuvers were meant to test Taiwan’s army, navy, air force and marines against the forces of its longtime rival mainland China, just 100 miles across the Taiwan Strait... Chen warned that China remains a threat to Taiwan’s developing democracy. ‘China is acting against Taiwan to try to create the foundation of a future invasion’, he said. Taiwanese military officials said 13,000 soldiers, airmen, sailors and marines, as well as 7,000 reservists, took part in this year’s exercises - more than ever before... Colonel... acknowledged that if China decided to move against Taiwan, it could also opt for a so-called decapitation strategy - coordinated commando attacks and pinpoint bombing against the island’s leaders and key institutions”; Reuters “Taiwan Stages Live Military Drills to Deter China”NYT 20 Jul 06:-“Taiwan staged its biggest live-fire army drills in about 20 years, showcasing latest weaponry designed to combat a potential Chinese attack as Beijing builds its military might... ‘Global military strategies are ever-changing with recent heightened tensions along the Korean peninsula’, [President Chen] said, adding that boosting Taiwan’s defense would ensure peace and stability along the Taiwan Strait and the Asia-Pacific region... Taiwan’s defense officials said Taiwan planned to raise its annual military spending - around T$240 billion (US$7.3 billion), or 2.4% of gross domestic product in 2006 - to 2.85% of GDP in 2007 and 3% in 2008... Opposition legislators repeatedly blocked a special budget to buy US arms, even though the package was cut from US$18b to US$11b, and again to US$9b. Chen said this week China had 820 missiles aimed at Taiwan, giving the island of 23m people more reason to boost its military defenses... The military balance in the Taiwan Strait is now shifting in China’s favor because the Asian giant has been pumping up defense amid concern that Taiwan will declare independence, analysts say”;Reuters“Taiwan Seeks 66 F - 16 Fighters - US Official”NYT 27 Jul 06:-“Taiwan is seeking to buy as many as 66 advanced Lockeed Martin Corp. F-16 fighter aircraft over a period of 5-10 years to guide its skies from any Chinese assault, a US official familiar with matter said. Such a deal could be worth as much as $5.5b based on prices quoted by Pentagon... Taiwan’s Air Force has been pursuing Block 50/52 F-16C single-seat configuration and F-16D two-seat version for at least a year... A Chinese FM spokesman...said... that China, prompted by press reports in Taiwan, had urged Washington not to supply the fighters... Deals have been held up in Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature... Still, Taiwan must make a major fighter purchase in the next few years if it is to maintain a credible Air Force”; Reuters “China Marks Army Day with Warning for Taiwan”NYT 01 Aug 06"China marked ‘Army Day’ with a warning from its defense minister that mainland would never tolerate Taiwan independence, but he stopped short of directly threatening the use of force against the self-governed island. Cao Gangchuan also vowed that China’s military modernization would continue... ‘(We will) never tolerate Taiwan independence, and will never permit Taiwan independence splittists to use any name or method to separate Taiwan from the motherland’, Cao said... ‘Central government,..with the utmost sincerity and hardest work, will push for the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification. At the same time, we uphold the sacred duty to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity and security’, he said in language typically used by top Chinese leaders on Taiwan”; AP “China: Affairs Official to Visit Taiwan”NYT 02 Aug 06:-“China’s top official for Taiwan affairs will travel to the rival island in Oct on what would be the highest-level visit yet by a mainland figure... Taiwanese official said his government knew nothing about such a trip. Chen Yunlin, director of Communist Party’s Taiwan Affairs Office, is to attend a forum on agricultural cooperation organized by a Taiwanese opposition party, said a statement by the Chinese ruling party... Taiwanese opposition leaders have visited Beijing, but no Communist Party leaders have traveled to the island... Chen Shui-bian’s government, under pressure from business leaders, agreed to allow multinational companies to bring more Chinese employees to Taiwan for meetings”;AP“Taiwan Breaks Relations With Chad”NYT 05 Aug 06:-“Taiwanese government said it was breaking off diplomatic relations with Chad just hours before a planned trip by Taiwan’s premier to the central African country. FM spokesman said Chad was under pressure from China to end its relations with Taiwan, so island’s leaders made the break before Chad could move on its own... [T]rip was cancelled... China now is focusing its pressure on Africa, using its economic power to offer lucrative aid, trade and investment deals in exchange for oil, raw materials and diplomatic support... Only 24 nations now have full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Most are small and impoverished countries in Africa, the Pacific and Latin America”; Reuters “Taiwan Condemns China After Chad Severs Ties”NYT 06 Aug 06:-“Taiwan condemned China after oil producer Chad switched diplomatic ties to Beijing from Taipei, forcing Premier Su Tseng-chang to scrap his plans to visit the African nation at the last minute”; AP “China, Chad Resume Diplomatic Relations”NYT 07 Aug 06:-“China and Chad have resumed diplomatic relations after nearly a decade without formal ties, state media said, just hours after Taiwan pre-emptively cut ties with the central African nation. Chinese FM and his Chadian counterpart signed a joint communique in Beijing late [06 Aug] agreeing to resume ties, official Xinhua News Agency said. Chad and China established a formal diplomatic relationship in 1972 but ended it in 1997 when Chad’s government switched its allegiance to China’s rival Taiwan... Taiwan’s FM said Chad had planned to cut its ties with Taiwan if China agreed to cease its military aid to rebel forces who are threatening to topple the Chadian government. So Taiwan ended their relations instead”; Keith Bradsher “Chad’s Switch to Beijing’s Side Draws Angry Response in Taiwan”NYT 08 Aug 06:-“Taiwan’s FM warned [07 Aug] that Beijing’s establishment of diplomatic relations over the weekend with Chad, one of Taiwan’s few remaining allies, would hurt relations across the Taiwan Strait. The switch in diplomatic relations also raises the possibility that China may use its influence to try to restrain Sudan and Chadian rebels, as both reportedly receive arms from Beijing... FM of Taiwan said the switch followed two months of secret meetings between Chadian and Chinese diplomats in NYC and Paris, as part of an effort by Chad to buy peace on its eastern border... China is a close ally of Sudan, buying oil from it and helping Sudan resist pressure at the UN to force government-linked Sudanese militias to end their violence against civilians in Darfur... Last year, a Taiwanese oil company obtained oil exploration rights in Chad; it has not heard whether the switch in diplomatic relations will affect it”; AP “Chinese Official Executed As Taiwan Spy”NYT 08 Aug 06:-“An official from China’s social security fund has been executed on charges of spying for rival Taiwan, a spokesman for the agency said, and government employees have been required to watch a video about the case. Director of the general office of the National Social Security Fund was executed, said the agency’s chief press officer. He said [director] was convicted of spying for Taiwan but wouldn’t give any other details... Taipei [has] strong interest in the mainland’s military and diplomatic policy... The video is meant to ‘strengthen emplyees’ concept of protecting secrets’... Mainland government has steadily expanded its arsenal of missiles, submarines and other long-range weapons in an effort to extend the reach of its military and back up threats to attack Taiwan. Beijing also has waged a successful campaign to isolate Taiwan on the world stage... In 2004, China displayed before reporters a group of Taiwanese businessmen who it said were caught spying for Taipei”; AP “A History of China - Taiwan Relations”NYT 12 Aug 06:-“A very brief survey, with most of its recent contents included in brevious summaries. The only elements not frequently recalled above: “Taiwan was claimed by China’s Manchu dynasty in 1683 after large-scale immigration from the Chinese mainland. Japan gained control of Taiwan in 1895 after defeating China in the first Sino-Japanese war. The Chinese government of Chiang Kai-shek [Nationalist Party] took Taiwan back at the end of WWII, and retreated to the island following its overthrow by Mao Zedong and his communists in 1949";. AP “U.S. Walks Fine Line With China, Taiwan”NYT 12 Aug 06:-“Annual war games are Taiwan’s way of showcasing its readiness to repel an attack by neighbouring China, and they also serve as a reminder that the island’s back-up muscle comes from Washington, long its major supporter... The stakes involved in the Taiwan-China standoff are incalculable. Both sides are workshops of the consumer world. The seas around them are heavily traveled by ships carrying their vast output of consumer goods to the West. Chinese purchases of US debt, which sustain the value of US dollar, would almost certainly evaporate if US sided with Taiwan in a confrontation over the island. And a war would severely rattle Japan, which harbors its own suspicions of China’s rising might... An outsider would be hard-pressed to define what’s not ‘independent’ about Taiwan. It may look like China, but it elects its own president, makes its own laws, issues its own passports and currency, and treasures its vibrant democracy... With the passage of 57 years, the 23m Taiwanese have grown apart from the mainland, and their democracy has given them a president who came to office as an outright opponent of unification, and is doing everything he can to prevent it... But US support for Taiwan is hardly open-ended... Now in his seventh year in power, [President Chen Shui-bian] advocates incrementally pushing the envelope on independence with measures designed to foster separateness, such as making schools teach Taiwanese history first, Chinese history second. Washington’s criticisms of Chen’s actions symbolize the fine line it must tred between supporting separateness without letting it become permanent... ‘We want to be supportive of Taiwan, while we’re not encouraging those that try to move toward independence’, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick told a congressional hearing... ‘There is a growing reluctance among US military planners to engage China in a conflict because of the improvement in its armed forces and its ability to strike US targets with nuclear weapons’, said Wendell Minnick of Washington-based Defense News. Beijing’s rapid buildup is also an issue in Japan [and] a deployment of Japanese troops in the Taiwan Strait [is] unlikely... Recently [China] has begun showing a willingness to let others help its cause, rather than confront Taiwan directly... [Expert] thinks this reflects China’s concern that it too has much to lose in a war... Another factor... is China’s belief that... the favorite in Taiwan’s 2008 presidential election, Ma Ying-jeou, is presumed to support unification. [But even Ma feels] that unification can only be considered when China sheds communism and becomes democratic... According to US-Taiwan defense doctrine, the Taiwanese military would have to fight an invasion alone for at least four days until US naval forces arrive. But China could also go with a so-called decapitation strategy[:] to paralyse the island before US reinforcements can arrive”; Reuters “Former Taiwan President Plans Japan Visit in Sept”NYT 14 Aug 06:-“Former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui plans to visit Japan next month,.. a move likely to upset China... Chinese officials have said that Lee... wants to cultivate ties with political contacts in Japan to bolster support for Taiwan independence”; AP “China Tries Reporter Accused of Spying”NYT 15 Aug 06:-“A reporter accused of spying for Taiwan was put on trial in China’s capital[, ]latest in a string of espionage cases against people with overseas ties... A series of business executives, academics, journalists and political activists with overseas ties have been arrested by China in recent years on espionage charges. Most have been accused of working for Taiwan... China is believed to have jailed more journalists than any other government, with 32 behind bars, mostly on charges of violating vague national security or subversion laws”; AP “China Trial of Hong Kong Journalist Ends”NYT 16 Aug 06:-“The trial of a Hong Kong journalist accused of spying for Taiwan ended after one day... Ching Cheong, a correspondent for Singapore’s Straits Times newspaper, was detained in Apr 05, and state media later claimed he confessed to selling military secrets to Taiwan and setting up a spy network. His supporters say he is innocent”; Reuters “China Releases Underground Catholic Bishop: Group”NYT 26 Aug 06:-“China, which says its Catholics must belong to a state-backed church that does not recognize the Pope’s authority, has freed an underground bishop after more than 10 years in jail. [Bishop] remained under surveillance despite appearing to have a permit to work as a bishop in China... All other underground bishops were under surveillance or house arrest or in hiding... Beijing has had no official ties with the Vatican since 1951 and insists relations cannot be resumed unless Holy See severs links with Taiwan”; AP “Report: Auxiliary Bishop in China Freed”NYT 26 Aug 06:-“An auxiliary bishop in China’s underground Catholic church has been released after a decade in prison, the Vatican-affiliated Asia News agency reported. [Bishop] was released after accepting government recognition - although he did not register with an organization set up in China to control the Catholic church, agency said, citing sources who spoke by telephone with bishop”;Reuters“Japan - Taiwan Ties Grow Despite China Objections”NYT 26 Aug 06:-“Japan’s top-ranked sumo wrestler... visited Taipei in Aug 06 with 41 other wrestlers because organizers figured the uniquely Japanese contest of muscles and body weight would be a hit in Taiwan... ‘[O]ur relations with Japan are very close’, said reception guest...’China doesn’t like Japan, but we’re like their family’. Sumo event underscored ties between Japan and Taiwan that have quietly warmed as relations worsen between Japan and China... Taiwan, unlike many other Asian countries, did not condemn Japanese PM’s visit to Yasukuni shrine... Taiwan broke ranks by saying the government supported Koizumi’s freedom of expression. ‘Japan is afraid of China, so it will use Taiwan to oppose China’, said ...director of China affairs for the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang... Despite being occupied by Japan for 50 years until 1945, Taiwan enjoys good relations with its western Pacific neighbour. Older Taiwanese are proudly fluent in Japanese and younger people are eager to adopt the latest trends from Japan. Japanese-style city planning, architecture, comic books and food are popular throughout Taiwan ...About 1.2m Taiwanese visited Japan in 2005, while a similar number of Japanese tourists visited Taiwan. Japanese tourists sometimes choose Taiwan over China as a holiday destination because of Chinese hostility toward Japan... Commercial ties are also close. Japan is Taiwan’s second largest trading partner... Trade between the two totaled $36.4b in the first seven months of 2006... Informal political visits are common. About 100 Japanese legislators visit Taiwan every year... China has so far turned a blind eye to burgeoning Japanese-Taiwanese relations”;Jim Yardley“China Jails Reporter for 5 Years as Spy”NYT 31 Aug 06:-“A Hong Kong journalist has been sentenced to five years in prison after a Beijing court convicted him on charges of spying for Taiwan, state media reported. The journalist, Ching Cheong, was tried in a closed courtroom earlier this month after being held for 18 months. International human rights and journalism advocacy groups have strongly criticized the arrest as baseless and politically motivated... The official New China News Agency reported the five-year sentence and a fine of 300,000 yuan, or about $37,500, in a brief article posted on its English-language Web site. The verdict was disclosed six days after the same court tossed out a state secrets charge against a researcher for The New York Times, Zhao Yan, but sentenced him to three years in prison on a lesser, unrelated fraud charge. The two cases were widely interpreted as warning signals to journalists against prying into the inner workings of top-level Communist Party officials... It was not clear if Ching’s lawyers would appeal”; David S.Cloud“Missile Defense System Intercepts Rocket in Test”NYT 01 Sep 06:- “In the first full-scale test of the ballistic missile defense system in more than a year, an interceptor rocket launched from California shot down a target fired from Alaska that officials said in some respects resembled a warhead from a North Korean rocket[, but ultimately any other missile]. Pentagon officials said that the successful interception...showed that the fledging system, put in place by the Bush administration before testing was complete, would have a good chance of stopping a ballistic missile fired at US in a limited attack... But critics said that the test lacked key elements of realism and that its main objective had been to allow the Missile Defense Agency to claim the program was back on track after the interceptors in the last two flight tests, in Dec 04 and Feb 05, failed to leave their silos”; AP“Taiwan President Questioned About Funds”NYT 07 Sep 06:-“Prosecutors have questioned President Chen Shui-bian about the use of secret diplomatic funds at the heart of a corruption probe, his office said. Prosecutors met with him...about allegations that he used false invoices to account for part of the secret fund... Revelation came after Chen admitted his office had used false invoices in the accounting of the diplomatic fund. However, it said the ruse was necessary because of the fund’s highly secretive nature...Ministry of Audit said irregularities had been found in presidential office’s accounting of expenditures from the fund. It said $1.1m in expenditures were declared... without being backed up by receipts... Chen said secret diplomatic fund has been in existence since 1963 and that he inherited it from the previous government... in 2000. He said it is used when budgetary allowances for regular Taiwanese diplomacy proved inadequate”; AP“Taiwan Allies Accuse China of Expansion”NYT 08 Sep 06:- “Taiwan’s allies accused China [in UN] of expanding its arsenal of missiles aimed at Taiwan in readiness for an invasion and urged UN to step in and promote a peaceful dialogue between the two parties. China retorted that the Taiwan issue is an internal matter - not one for UN to address... Since 1993, Taiwan’s supporters have been trying to get UNGA to list the issue of its admission on the UN agenda, but Beijing ...has prevailed... Only 24 nations continue to recognize Taiwan... Gambia...cited ‘a very serious omission’ in Assan’s report - ‘the deteriorating security situation across the Taiwan Strait’... Chinese diplomat... said, ’I wish to emphasize that Taiwan question is entirely an internal affair of China and bears no relation whatsoever to the prevention of armed conflict’”; AP“Thousands Protest Taiwan President”NYT 09 Sep 06:-“Tens of thousands of red-clad protesters thronged Taiwan’s capital demanding that president resign over a series of alleged corruption scandals involving his family and inner circle. [P]rotesters shouted slogans and gave the ‘thumbs down’ gesture, emblematic of their feeling that Chen should resign to restore the dignity of the self-governing island. Police estimated 90,000 people, though protest organizers claimed they reached their target of 200,000"; Reuters“Thousands of Protesters Call on Taiwan’s President to Step Down”NYT 09 Sep 06:-“Tens of thousands opposed to Taiwan’s president took to the streets in response to calls for weeklong demonstrations aimed at unseating him. Before the rally, one of the largest, a steady flow of people streamed in during the day to site in front of the presidential palace where the event began in late afternoon... TV reports estimated crowd at up to 80,000. Campaigners had expected up to 300,000. [P]resident rejects the allegations of corruption and says he did not pocket any money from the state affairs budget”; AP“100,000 Taiwanese Protest President” NYT15 Sep 06:-“More than 100,000 chanting protesters marched through downtown Taipei trying to pressure Taiwanese president to resign over a series of corruption scandals. The march came at the end of a weeklong series of demonstrations led by a former Chen ally... Police, who estimated crowd size at more than 100,000, said some 4,000 officers were deployed along the march route. Chen has been on the defensive over the corruption allegations for the past six months. [I]t may be difficult to sustain the momentum of the past week, especially with Legislature resuming work on 19 Sep 06"; Reuters “Taiwan: First Medical Flight From China”NYT 15 Sep 06:-“A plane evacuating stroke victim took off for Taiwan from China, the first direct medical flight since the island and the mainland severed ties in 1949. The 100-minute evacuation flight stemmed from Jun 06 agreement that also called for direct passenger and cargo flights. Taiwan had banned direct air links with China after their split in 1949"; Economist 23 Sep 06“Taiwan: An Internal Affair”(48):-“Masses[on the Taipei streets] protest against the government [and are] aimed at toppling President Chen... because of alleged corruption... China, despite its contempt for Chen and for democracy, would rather see the opposition Kuomintang(KMT) regain power through the ballot box. Few expect Chen to capitulate readily to demonstrators, who are led by Shih Ming-teh, a former chairman of Chen’s own Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) and a long-time critic of the president. Since 09 Sep, Shih and fellow protesters, clad in red as a sign of anger, have camped in the city centre[, but] called off protests in other cities, citing a risk of disorder, [and p]lans for an island-wide strike... KMT relishes the president’s discomfort but is uncertain how to react[: f]orcing Chen to step down now would not necessarily help [his rival, KMT] chairman Ma Ying-jeou, [as] presidential polls [could] take place as originally scheduled in Mar 08. China would like KMT to take back the presidency. But it fears that embattled Chen might try to shore up his popularity by pushing the island further towards formal independence. Chen [says] considering calling a referendum on whether to try to join UN under the name Taiwan, instead of Republic of China... This would infuriate China... Charismatic Ma is a front-runner to succeed Chen[, so] it appears he has to do no more than wait”; Keith Bradsher“Protesters Fuel a Long-Shot Bid to Oust Taiwan’s Leader”NYT 27 Sep 06:-“Only a longtime democracy and independence activist like Shih Ming-teh...would dare revive the color red in Taiwanese politics. For past 19 days, Shih has led a sit-in in front of [Taipei] presidential palace by red-clad demonstrators... Shih’s campaign, which has drawn up to several hundred thousand people during one evening’s rally but a dwindling crowd in the past few days, emboldened opposition to start a long-shot legislative effort to recall the president. But Shih[‘s movement] is heavily composed of Nationalists, his longtime enemies who once ran the country under martial law... Shih’s choice of red ...especially surprising [as] color is associated with Chinese Communist Party...and Mao’s Cultural Revolution... Shih said there could be nothing the matter with red now... [P]resident [Chen] office’s SG [said] ‘our president is clean and the first lady is clean’. He accused the Taiwanese media of inflating allegations of misconduct. He also noted that the president... recently allowed prosecutors to interview him even though the Constitution grants him immunity from prosecution... Allegations of corruption are especially touchy in Taiwan. Nationalists [lost] to a considerable extent because of popular indignation at widespread corruption... By contrast, DPP has long presented itself as largely free of corruption... Beijing and US officials have stayed silent about the political dispute. But Chen did set off a controversy [in past days] when he said that people in Taiwan should ‘seriously consider’ whether to come up with a new definition of its territory. Taiwanese Constitution vaguely defines this in a way that can be interpreted to include mainland[, and] allows China, US and other countries to maintain there is still one China that encompasses Taiwan and the mainland... Many are waiting for the results of the initial inquiry into the [Taiwan] first lady’s activities... ‘There will not be a coup in Taiwan’, [Shih] said categorically. ‘A neutral military is very important for democratic country’”;Reuters“China Warns Taiwan on Perceived Independence Move”NYT 27 Sep 06:-“China blasted Taiwan President Chen... for a plan to change the constitution and rename the island, moves Beijing would consider a formal declaration of independence of territory it claims as its own. Chen’s ruling DPP is studying constitutional changes to name the island the ‘Republic of Taiwan’, instead of ‘Republic of China’, and redefine its national territory. Party members may introduce legislation next month. ‘We will never tolerate their seeking de jure independence by amending the constitution’, said spokesman for China’s policy-making Taiwan Affairs Office. ‘We will closely watch and be on alert to new developments’, he added, calling Chen’s plan a ‘splittist’ and ‘base’ act that would threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits and in the Asia-Pacific region... US, which recognizes Beijing’s ‘one China’ policy, warned Chen [25 Sep] against seeking the changes. ‘US does not support independence for Taiwan, and we continue to be opposed to unilateral changes in the status quo by either side’, State Department spokesman told reporters. ‘We also take very seriously President Chen’s repeated commitments not to permit the constitutional reform process to touch on sovereignty issues, which includes territorial definition... [W]e expect him to carry out those commitments’... Taiwan media quoted Chen’s office as saying the proposed changes would not violate his previous commitments”; Reuters“China Quiet on Taiwan Protests to Avoid Backlash”NYT 27 Sep 06:-“China has kept quiet on Taiwan’s recent outbreak of street protests calling for the ouster of independence-leaning President Chen because it fears any strong reaction might backfire, analysts said. [But] in a move some analysts said was aimed at regaining the initiative, the Chen administration revived talk of a constitutional change of the island’s official name to Republic of Taiwan - a hot-button issue that drew rebukes both from Beijing and Washington... Chances are low that Chen can move his independence-leaning agenda forward as he faces corruption allegations with less than two years left in his term... Beijing also showed it will comment on cross straits affairs as it blasted Chen for considering changing Taiwan’s name and redifining its territory”; AP“Embattled Taiwan Leader Lauds Democracy”NYT 30 Sep 06:-“Embattled President Chen... told tens of thousands of applauding supporters to value democratic freedoms, even as protesters use those rights to call for his resignation. [I]n Taiwan’s second city of Kaohsiung, the event was billed as a commemoration of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s 20th anniversary, but was widely seen as an outpouring of support for Chen. His 15-minute speech praising democracy was frequently interrupted by applause from the crowds. Speech followed a march through the city supporting Chen. Organizers said more than 350,000 people took part, but police estimated the crowd at 100,000. The Kaohsiung rally followed a decision by lawmakers to vote in two weeks on whether a public referendum should be held to determine Chen’s fate. The proposal is widely expected to fail, as did a similar attempt in Jun 06"; AP“Taiwan’s First Lady Cleared in Scandal”NYT 02 Oct 06“Wife of Taiwan’s leader was cleared of involvement in scandal surrounding the takeover of an upscale department store, as protesters maintained pressure on President Chen to resign amid corruption allegations. First Lady Wu Shu-chen was accused of accepting free vouchers from management of department store in return for her influence in a takeover bid for the store. Prosecutor said that while Wu received $8,000 worth of free store vouchers, no evidence that she tried to influence the bid. A lawmaker from opposition said Wu was still under a separate investigation relating to a secret diplomatic fund used by her husband. Store’s new owner and a banker both indicted on charges of breach of trust and forgery of documents related to takeover... Investigation into department store’s takeover was launched shortly after Chen’s son-in-law, Chao Chien-min, was arrested in May on charges of insider trading involving a development company. Chao was later indicted, but has denied the charges... The number of protesters has dropped sharply in recent days as Chen’s supporters have staged counter rallies drawing tens of thousands of people”;