Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century
and United Nations Challenges
A GUIDE TO FACTS AND VIEWS ON MAJOR OR FUTURE TRENDS

The People's Republic of China has, in recent years, generally stressed the use of "soft"-style comments when dealing with most other countries, including the United States. An exception (particularly in Apr 05) is China's sharp criticism of Japan's unrepentant school descriptions of its tough attacks on China that lasted until 1945, but in general terms there is no prospect of bilateral war - except in economic rivalry. Yet the autonomous democracy that is running the very successful island of Taiwan off the mainland coast constitutes a serious political challenge for the Beijing government. The republic does not respect the latter's authority, and may be moving in the direction of complete - and worldly-noted - independence. Beijing is so concerned about the possible impact on other parts of the PRC, and the government's own global prestige, that the Taiwan regime has been threatened with military attack if it seeks independence. The US's historical ties to the Taiwan regime are such that if a Chinese attack became real or imminent, US forces would come to Taiwan's defence. A resulting battle/war between China and the US is widely viewed as the most serious and sophisticated potential military threat to global stability. Current books on the issue include: Steve Tsang"Peace and Security Across the Taiwan Strait"(Palgrave Macmillan May 04)Hardcover, 236 pp; Richard C. Bush"Untying the Knot: Making Peace in the Taiwan Strait"(Brookings Institution Press 05)HC & PB, 300pp. The following titles refer to recent articles/essays on this threat. The Associated Press"Taiwan Won't Rule Out China Unification"in New York Times 24 Feb 05; Mark Landler"Europe Wants China Sales but Not Just of Weapons"NYT 24 Feb 05; The Economist 26 Feb 05"China, Japan and America: Keeping Their Balance" (39-40); Joseph Kahn"China Leader Mixes Rhetoric on Taiwan"NYT 05 Mar 05; Reuters"China's Wen Seeks Peace with Taiwan, Stable Economy"NYT 05 Mar 05; AP"China: Keep Taiwan Out of Alliance"NYT 06 Mar 05; Reuters"China Tough on Taiwan But Plays Down Threat to World"NYT 06 Mar 05; AP"China Steps Up Pressure on Taiwan"NYT 08 Mar 05; Joseph Kahn"Beijing Leaders Speak of Force to Keep Taiwan 'Chinese'"NYT 08 Mar 05; Chris Buckly"Taiwan Bitter at China Law on Secession"NYT 09 Mar 05; Financial Times"Secession Law Forces Taipei To Delay Plans"NYT 10 Mar 05; Reuters"China Rejects U.S. Request on Anti-Secession Bill"NYT 10 Mar 05; Reuters"Taiwan Plans Massive Protest Against China Law"NYT 10 Mar 05; Economist 12 Mar 05"China: The House of War?"(43-4); Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Calls for Mass Rally Against China Law"NYT 12 Mar 05; Reuters"China Adopts Anti - Secession Bill, Eye on Taiwan"NYT 13 Mar 05; Adam Segal"US Analysts Increasingly Alarmed about China's Military Modernization"Council on Foreign Relations 16 Mar 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Blasts China Law, Calls for Protest"NYT 16 Mar 05; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Leader Criticizes China"NYT 17 Mar 05; Jim Yardley "Russian Denies War Games With China Are a Signal to Taiwan"NYT 19 Mar 05; AP"Britain: China Threat Complicates Embargo"NYT 20 Mar 05; Reuters"Lifting EU Arms Ban on China a Wrong Signal"NYT 21 Mar 05; Steven R. Weisman"European Union Said to Keep Embargo on Arms to China"NYT 22 Mar 05; Joseph Kahn"Europe's Shift on Embargo Places Taiwan at Center Stage"NYT 23 Mar 05; AP"EU Official Calls China Embargo 'Unfair'"NYT 23 Mar 05; Reuters"Taiwan Urges China to Renounce Force, Repair Ties"NYT 25 Mar 05; Keith Bradsher"Hundreds of Thousands Stage Mass Rally in Taiwan"NYT 26 Mar 05; Reuters"Massive Protest in Taiwan Against China Law"NYT 26 Mar 05; AP"Taiwan Protests China Anti - Secession Law"NYT 26 Mar 05; Reuters"KMT Leader in Beijing, Aims to Ease Taiwan Tension"NYT 30 Mar 05; New York Times"Taiwan Opposition Welcomed in China"NYT 31 Mar 05; Reuters"China Calls for Dialogue with Taiwan"NYT 31 Mar 05; Kenneth Lieberyhal"Preventing a War Over Taiwan"Foreign Affairs Vol 84/No 2(Mar/Apr 05):-Source's Summary:"Although neither China nor Taiwan want war, both pursue policies that raise risk of bloodshed: first by issuing vague warnings, second by testing their limits. To stabilize situation, Bush administration should help broker temporary agreement under which Taipei would put off independence and Beijing stop threatening attack."; Economist 02 Apr 05"Taiwan: Own Goal; Has China Blundered?" (38); Reuters"U.S. Warns EU on China Arms Embargo"NYT 03 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwan President Seeks to Cool China Fever"NYT 06 Apr 05; Jim Yardley and Thom Shanker"Chinese Navy Buildup Gives Pentagon New Worries"NYT 08 Apr 05; Reuters"China Urges Taiwan to Reverse Ban on Journalists"NYT 12 Apr 05; Richard Bernstein"Europe Moves Away From Lifting China Arms Ban"NYT 14 Apr 05; Reuters "Bush Pressures China on Currency, Taiwan"NYT 14 Apr 05; Richard Bernstein"Europe Urges Linking Lifting of Chinese Arms Ban to Rights"NYT 15 Apr 05; AP "Taiwan Nationalist to Meet Chinese Leader" NYT 20 Apr 05; Reuters"China's Hu Seeks to Allay Fears at Afro - Asia Summit"NYT 21 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader to Visit China"NYT 25 Apr 05; Joseph Kahn"China Tries to Isolate Taiwan's President" NYT 25 Apr 05; Joseph Kahn"Taiwan Opposition Leader Arrives in China for High-Level"NYT 26 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwan Opposition Chief Returns to China, Hundreds Protest"NYT 26 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Arrives in China"NYT 26 Apr 05; AP"China Welcomes Taiwan Opposition Leader"NYT 26 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwanese Official Calls for Peace at Sun Mausoleum"NYT 27 Apr 05; Chris Buckley "Taiwanese, in China, Honors Sun Yat-sen"NYT 27 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Beijing" NYT 28 Apr 05; Reuters"China Communists, Taiwan KMT Set to End Hostilities"NYT 28 Apr 05; AP "Taiwan Opposition Leader Seeks Cooperation"NYT 28 Apr 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Lien Urges Political Reform in China"NYT 28 Apr 05; Joseph Kahn"China Warmly Welcomes Taiwan Opposition Leader"NYT 29 Apr 05; Reuters"Leaders of China's Communist Party and Taiwan Opposition Meet"NYT 29 Apr 05; AP "Facts About China-Taiwan Ties"NYT 29 Apr 05:-brief statements/figures on following: Post-1949 Relations; Trade; Investment; Taiwanese in China; Taiwanese Visitors; Taiwanese Studying in China; Military; U.S. Relations; Population; AP"Chinese Leader Meets With Taiwan's Opposition"NYT 29 Apr 05; Reuters "Taiwan Media Praise, Blast Lien - Hu Meeting"NYT 29 Apr 05; Economist 30 Apr 05"Taiwan and China: Popping Home; The Kuomintang's Brief Return to China"(38-9); Joseph Kahn"60 Years Later, China Enemies End Their War"NYT 30 Apr 05; Keith Bradsher "Nationalist Chairman's Visit to Mainland Spurs Taiwanese Interest in Accords"NYT 30 Apr 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Birthplace"NYT 01 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Says to Send Message to China"NYT 01 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Grave"NYT 01 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan President's Ally to Carry Message to China" NYT 01 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Secret Message From Taiwan Stirs New Hopes for Accord"NYT 01 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Communication Plan Stirs New Hopes for a Thaw"NYT 02 May 05; AP"Lien Calls for Beijing - Taipei Peace Talks"NYT 02 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Lien Calls for Greater Trade with China"NYT 02 May 05; AP"Taiwan's President Seeks Talks With China"NYT 02 May 05; Keith Bradsher"On Path to China-Taiwan Detente, Strolling Pandas, Perhaps"NYT 03 May 05; AP"Taiwan Would Welcome Visit by China Leader"NYT 03 May 05; Reuters "China Offers Taiwan Pandas, Lien Ends Historic Trip"NYT 03 May 02; AP"China Rebuffs Taiwan Leader's Invitation"NYT 03 May 05; Joseph Kahn"China Raises Hurdle to Taiwan Negotiations"NYT 04 May 05; AP"2nd Taiwan Opposition Chief to Visit China"NYT 04 May 05; Reuters"Pressure Builds On Taiwan's Chen"NYT 04 May 05; AP"Another Taiwan Leader Begins Trip to China"NYT 04 May 05; Reuters"Second Taiwan Opposition Leader Goes to China"NYT 05 May 05; AP "Second Taiwan Opposition Leader in China"NYT 05 May 05; FT"Taiwanese Opposition Leader Vows to Break China Impasse"NYT 05 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Monument"NYT 06 May 05; FT"China Brings 'Panda Diplomacy' to Bear on Taiwan"NYT 06 May 05; Economist 07 May 05"The Transatlantic Relationship: When Javier [Solana] Met Condi [Rice]; They Agreed To Disagree a Little More Amicably About China"(27):-item describes bilateral positions relating to any EU easing of its embargo on arms sales to China with could affect Chinese military capacity against Taiwan and thus any Taiwan defenders; Economist 07 May 05"Taiwan and China: Give Us Your Island; But Here Are Two of Our Pandas"(39); AP"Taiwan Politician Opposes Independence"NYT 08 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Premier Calls For Negotiations With China" NYT 09 May 05; FT"Pakistan and China Agree On New Fighter Jets"NYT 09 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits China"NYT 10 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Opposition Leader in Beijing for Talks" NYT 10 May 05; AP"Taiwan Launches Ninth Bid to Join WHO"NYT 10 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Detains Officer For Leaking Secrets to China"NYT 11 May 05; AP"Taiwan President Draws Fire From Friends" NYT 11 May 05; AP"Taiwan Rounds Up 17 Spy Suspects"NYT 11 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Soong Says Peace With China Only Choice"NYT 11 May 05; AP"Taiwan Opposition Leader Visits Beijing"NYT 11 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Soong Seeks To Break Stalemate With China" NYT 11 May 05; Chris Buckley"China and European Union Discuss Trade Ties and Arms"NYT 12 May 05; Jim Yardley & Chris Buckley"Taiwan Rejects New Language by China as Basis for Talks"NYT 12 May 05; AP"Taiwan Nixes 'Two Sides, One China' Pitch"NYT 12 May 05; Reuters"China Renews Talks Offer, Taiwan Says No"NYT 12 May 05; Reuters "Taiwan Rejects China Offers As Hopes For Talks Dim"NYT 13 May 05; Jim Yardley & Chris Buckley"New Maxim From Beijing, '2 Sides of Strait,' Is Met With a Yawn From Taiwan's President"NYT 13 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Heads To The Polls, China Policy In Focus"NYT 13 May 05; AP"Taiwan Ruling Party Wins Special Election"NYT 14 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Wins Poll, Boost On China Stance"NYT 14 May 05; AP"Taiwan Ruling Party Wins Special Election"NYT 14 May 05; Keith Bradsher"Few in Taiwan Bother to Vote on Constitutional Assembly"NYT 15 May 05; Reuters "Taiwan Backs Chen, But Low Turnout Mars Election"NYT 15 May 05; AP"Taiwan Protests China on Observer Status"NYT 17 May 05; AP"China 'Sincere' About Ties With Vatican"NYT 17 May 05; AP"China 'Sincere' About Ties With Vatican"NYT 17 May 05:-Beijing is trying to replace Taiwan as "China" in formal relations with the Vatican; AP"Taiwan Debates Stance on Rival China"NYT 18 May 05; AP"Pope Reaches Out to Non - Catholics, Chinese"NYT 18 May 05; Reuters"US Overstated China's Military Spending, Study Says"NYT 20 May 05:-article reports that the RAND Corporation "estimated China's military spending totaled $31 billion to $38 billion in 2003, which [RAND] said was the most recent year for which full data was available". Reuters also reports: "The [US] Defense Department may have overestimated China's total spending by more than two-thirds". However, a Defense Department spokesman is reported to have said that it "monitors China's military modernization closely, 'particularly those aspects that are directed at Taiwan'." For direct information from the RAND Corporation see www.rand.org. Reuters"China To Allow Mainlanders To Visit Taiwan - Report"NYT 20 May 05; AP"China Mainland Tourists May Visit Taiwan"NYT 20 May 05; Elisabeth Rosenthal"Hints of Thaw Between China and Vatican"International Herald Tribune in NYT 21 May 05; Economist 21 May 05"Taiwan and China: Muted Celebration"(44-5):-"President Chen downplays talk of better ties with China - but there is hope of making status quo more durable"; Reuters "Taiwan Says 2nd Chinese Ship Enters Its Waters"NYT 24 May 05; Reuters"China Says Bush, Hu To Exchange Visits"NYT 24 May 05:-Relevant extract: "Bush got off to a rocky start with China during his first term, when he...vowed to do'whatever it took'to help Taiwan defend itself."Reuters "Taiwan Denies Reports Of Re - Emergence Of SARS"NYT 25 May 05:-"Taiwan saw world's third-worst outbreak of SARS, which originated in China and killed nearly 800 people."; AP"Beijing, Vatican Appear Eager for Ties"NYT 29 May 05: With Vatican "the last European country with ties to Taiwan,... the figure pushing Beijing to make deal could be unexpected one -- leader of rival Taiwan"; Reuters"Taiwan Faithful Doubt Vatican Will Side With China"NYT 30 May 05; Reuters"Taiwan Condemns China Over Peacekeeping In Haiti"NYT 02 Jun 05; AP"Report: Taiwan Test - Fires Cruise Missile"NYT 05 Jun 05; Reuters"Taiwan Poised For Sweeping Constitutional Reforms"NYT 06 Jun 05; Reuters"Taiwan Approves Sweeping Constitutional Reforms"NYT 07 Jun 05; AP"Constitutional Reform Adopted in Taiwan"NYT 07 Jun 05; Reuters"Australia Urges Peaceful Resolution Of Taiwan Issue"NYT 08 Jun 05:-Defense Minister Robert Hill made statement after official meeting in Beijing that "played down Rumsfeld's remarks that Chinese [arms] build-up could threaten peace and stability in Asia." Economist 11 Jun 05"China's Armed forces: Casus Belli"(40-1):-"Is China the new enemy?" Original Bush administration's concern about a potential China threat became more relaxed, but US policy now may be again concerned; AP"Taiwan Upholds Shui - Bian's Victory"NYT 16 Jun 05:-"Supreme Court...upheld Chen Shui-bian's victory in disputed 2004 presidential election"; AP "Taiwan Sends Frigates to Disputed Islands"NYT 21 Jun 05:-islands, also claimed by Japan, have high fisheries capacity; AP"Vatican: Ties With China Not Impossible"NYT 22 Jun 05:-specific issues identified as: Beijing demand that Holy See break relations with Taiwan and Vatican insists appointing and supervising bishops; Joseph Kahn"China's Costly Quest for Energy Control"NYT 27 Jun 05:-while article stresses China's global activities to gain sources of oil, description of Beijing's motive begins:"Shortages of imported oil could threaten China in event of conflict with Taiwan. US, which has said it would defend Taiwan if Chinese were to attack, could potentially block shipping in East China Sea, crippling Chinese trade"; AP"Report: Vatican, China Will Establish Ties"NYT 26 Jun 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Says HK Worse Off Under China Rule"NYT 30 Jun 05; Eduardo Porter"O.K., Japan Isn't Taking Over the World. But China..."NYT 03 Jul 05:-item compares current easing of US fears of Japan's economic power with China's larger but similar potential. Greater concern about China's more belligerent foreign/military role - as seen in its Taiwan policy; Reuters"China, at Odds with Vatican, Arrests Bishop - Group"NYT 05 Jul 05; AP "Taiwan Carries Out Military Maneuvers"NYT 07 Jul 05; The Economist 09 Jul 05"Anthropology: Taiwan, Twinned with Hawaii"(69):-DNA ties the long-term population of Taiwan(now 400,000) to Polynesians and Melanesians across the Pacific, also speaking related languages. [No reference to any new bi-island state based on Hawaii and Taiwan]; Reuters"Taiwan's China - Friendly KMT to Select New Leader"NYT 13 Jul 05; Financial Times"China 'Ready To Use N-Weapons Against US'"NYT 14 Jul 05:-source of Taiwan-related threat is "personal view" of PLA Major-General Zhu Chenghu who is professor at China's National Defence University; Joseph Kahn"Chinese General Threatens Use of A-Bombs if U.S. Intrudes"NYT 15 Jul 05; AP "Chinese General Threatens U.S. Over Taiwan"NYT 15 Jul 05; Reuters"Chinese General Warns U.S. Over Taiwan - Newspaper"NYT 15 Jul 05; Joel Brinkley"U.S. Rebukes Chinese General for His Threat of Nuclear Arms Use"NYT 15 Jul 05; Reuters"China, Firm on Taiwan, Says General's Words His Own"NYT 15 Jul 05; AP"Beijing Downplays General's Nuke Comment"NYT 16 Jul 05; Reuters"Taiwan's Opposition KMT Elects Mayor as New Chief"NYT 16 Jul 05; Reuters"Beijing Hails Taiwan KMT's New Pro - China Boss" NYT 17 Jul 05; Thom Shanker & David E.Sanger"China's Military Geared to Deterring Taiwan, Report Says" NYT 20 Jul 05:-"China is modernizing its military and emphasizing preparations 'to fight and win short-duration, high intensity conflicts' over Taiwan, Pentagon said [19 Jul] with release of its annual report on Chinese military power". Report to Congress entitled "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China" is available via www.defenselink.mil/news/Jul2005/d200507/19china.pdf, if you use Adobe Reader 7.0; Chris Buckley"Calling In Envoy, Beijing Assails Pentagon Report"NYT 20 Jul 05; AP "China Denounces U.S. Report On Military"NYT 20 Jul 05; AP"China Affirms 'No First Use' Nuke Policy"NYT 21 Jul 05:-FM Li Zhaoxing said China"will not first use nuclear weapons at any time/under any condition"; Economist 23 Jul 05"US and China: Sizing Up the Dragon"(28):-item includes both how "Pentagon [Report] wonders whether China may threaten more than Taiwan" and how general Zhu [above]"suggested China would engage in a nuclear war with US if it intervenes to defend Taiwan". Taiwan elements: Report says "military build-up appears worryingly at odds with its stated peaceful intentions. China has deployed 650-730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMS) opposite Taiwan and is adding to this arsenal at rate of 100/year. Improvements in China's military capabilities... are helping to shift military balance in Taiwan Strait in China's favour. [M]ain focus of China's military modernization in near term appears... preparation for possible conflict in Taiwan Strait"... For now... Pentagon says China's ability to project conventional military power beyond its periphery remains limited. And even in Taiwan Strait, it does not yet have the military capability to accomplish its political goals."; Economist 23 Jul 05"China and the Kuomintang: The Devil They Know"(39):-"China's leadership, normally sullen in response to democratic developments in Taiwan, reacted gushingly to first contested leadership election in the 110-year history of the KMT, these days the island's main opposition party. The winner, Ma Ying-jeou, is man it feels comfortable with"; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Urges Opposition to Back Arms Deal" NYT 25 Jul 05:-President is seeking support for $15b arms budget, including Patriot anti-missile batteries, diesel-electric submarines, and Orion aircraft; Reuters"China, Vatican Agree on New Bishop, Priest Arrested"NYT 29 Jul 05:-"Vatican reported to have given its blessing to atheist China's choice of a new bishop, second such appointment in as many months in a sign of a thaw in decades-old icy relations". But also report "authorities had beaten up parishioners in... Fujian province who had been trying to prevent arrest of underground RC priest"; Reuters"China Army Says It's Not Expansionist, Warns Taiwan"NYT 01 Aug 05:-defense minister"insisted China was peace-loving nation but warned Taiwan it would never be allowed to formally secede, said People's Daily, Communist Party mouthpiece. 'China will resolutely pursue an independent foreign policy of peace and a defensive national defense policy...(But) we will never allow 'Taiwan independence' splittist forces to cut off Taiwan from the motherland under any name or in any form"; Financial Times"China and Russia Joint Exercises to Strengthen Ties"NYT 02 Aug 05:-"Nearly 10,000 troops to take part in unprecedented joint military exercises by China and Russia [18-25 Aug] aimed at strengthening ties between armed forces of two powers once bitter foes. [E]xercises would be held...in/around Russian... port of Vladivostok and Chinese coastal province of Shandong... Russia is now China's leading source of high-technology weaponry... 'Joint exercises will... help strengthen capability of the two armed forces in jointly striking international terrorism, extremism and separatism',[China's official Xinhua news]agency said. Reference to separatism will heighten concerns about the exercises in Taiwan". AP"Pope Greets Group of Chinese Priests"NYT 03 Aug 05:-"Believed to be first time a pope had publicly welcomed members of the official [Communist Party-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association]at general audience, and was another indication of his efforts to forge better ties with Chinese government... China wants Vatican to drop its recognition of the government of archrival Taiwan"; AP"China Charges Reporter With Spying"NYT 04 Aug 05; Reuters"China Arrests HK Reporter on Spying Charge"NYT 05 Aug 05:-"China formally arrested Hong Kong journalist Ching Cheong on [05 Aug] on a charge of spying for rival Taiwan, the official Xinhua news agency said, the first such case since Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule in 1997.[Agency stated] Ching received millions of Hong Kong dollars from Taiwan's intelligence apparatus and used the money to buy unspecified information on China's political, economic and military affairs between 2000 and 2005"; Keith Bradsher"In Media Crackdown, China Arrests Newspaper Correspondent"NYT 05 Aug 05; Keith Bradsher"China Accuses a Detained Correspondent of Spying for Taiwan"NYT 05 Aug 05:-"Ching is the chief China correspondent of The Straits Times in Singapore. Arrest comes as Chinese government released a long list of new regulations limiting foreign investment in the media - in everything from book publishing to movie production"; Reuters"Taiwan Highlights China Threat in Virtual War Game"NYT 11 Aug 05:-"After holding months of live-fire war games to highlight perceived growing military threat from giant neighbour China, Taiwan's military gave people a taste of virtual war on [11 Aug]... Opposition parties, which hold a slim majority in parliament, have blocked the budget since [Jun 04], saying the weapons are overpriced; AP"U.S. Conducts Military Exercise Off Japan"NYT 11 Aug 05:-"US aircraft battle group, contingent of Marines and dozens of Air Force fighter jets...conducted one of their biggest inter-service exercises of the year off the southern Japanese island of Okinawa... The maneuvers... came on the heels of statements from Pentagon indicating an increased concern over the modernization of China's military..."; Reuters "China Says Taiwan U.N. Bid Again Doomed to Failure"NYT 13 Aug 05:-"Taiwan has tried to join UN every year since 1993" but China has veto power on UNSC "and many more friends in UN than Taiwan"; Chris Buckley"China and Russia Are Set to Begin Joint Military Exercises Thursday"NYT 17 Aug 05:-"hold most ambitious exercises beginning [18 Aug], with naval ships, bombers, fighter planes and 10,000 troops on China's northeast coast for maneuvers... [Exercise intended] to improve ability of China and Russia to thwart terrorism and separatist uprisings on their borders. [However,] display of mutual political trust may be more important than military training involved, specialists in Russian and Chinese relations said... A senior Chinese military officer suggested... exercises intended to bring Russia in to deter US from supporting Taiwan if it moved toward independence and China responded with force... But suggestions that Russia would back China in an attack on Taiwan are far-fetched, Russian analysts said"; AP"China, Russia Conduct Military Exercises"NYT 17 Aug 05:-"Analysts agree Russia and China unlikely to team up against a common foe... Beijing's main focus for now lies on Taiwan... Russian news reports said Beijing had pushed to have the exercise staged closer to Taiwan - making it appear to be a possible rehearsal for an invasion"; Reuters"Russia, China Open First Joint Military Exercises"NYT 17 Aug 05:-"[W]ith the drills ...helping to'strengthen the capacity of the two armed forces in jointly striking international terrorism, extremism and separatism', according to China's Xinhua news agency, they are likely to be viewed with concerns by others in the region. Word separatism will give pause for thought to residents of Taiwan... [W]ar games are more likely to result in a shopping spee than any aggressive posturing"; AP"Russia, China Kick Off Military Exercises"NYT 18 Aug 05:-"Analysts have noted involvement of Russia's Tu-95 strategic bombers and Tu-22M long-range bombers in the exercises... The aircraft are expected to top China's shopping list both to deter US assistance to Taiwan in the event of a conflict and project Chinese strength across the region"; Chris Buckley"China Has Arrested American on Suspicion of Spying for Taiwan"NYT 18 Aug 05:-"China has arrested a Chinese-born American businessman on accusations of spying in what appears to be a deepening investigation into the possibility of Taiwanese espionage on the mainland"; AP"Russia, China: Military Drills Peaceful"NYT 18 Aug 05:-"Chinese Gen. Liang Guanglie denied the moves to strengthen ties between Beijing and Moscow would lead to some kind of military union or the two countries fighting together against a common foe... Liang said exercises... were taking place in the context of 'fight against international terrorism, separatism and extremism'."; AP"Chinese - Russian Military Exercises Begin"NYT 19 Aug 05:-"Top generals from China and Russia sought to reassure the region that exercises weren't directed against anyone. Under the fictional scenario for the exercises, the forces have been given a UN mandate to stabilize a country plunged into violence by ethnic strife"; Reuters"Sino - Russian War Games Move on to China"NYT 20 Aug 05:-"After two days near Russian port of Vladivostok, war games shifted to eastern China's Shandong peninsula where joint manouevres will include combat practice, offshore blockades and ambitious landings, official Xinhua news agency said"; AP"China and Russia Start Second Stage of Military Drills" NYT 20 Aug 05:-"War games are result of warming ties... motivated by growing concern about US dominance of world affairs. China looks to Russia as source of oil/gas... and is spending heavily on high-tech Russian arms to back up its threats to invade rival Taiwan"; AP"Chinese, Russian Troops Join War Games"NYT 23 Aug 05:-"Chinese media have..said the exercises are intended to advertise China's determination to deal with regional terrorist, extremist and separatist threats - the last a likely reference to self-governing Taiwan... US officials have said they are watching the exercises closely and hope they will help support regional stability"; AP"Chinese, Russian Troops Stage Landings"NYT 24 Aug 05:-"Thousands of Chinese and Russian troops launched a mock amphibious landing on a Chinese beach [24 Aug]; AP"China and Russia Wrap Up Military Exercise"NYT 25 Aug 05:-"Chinese and Russian troops wrapped up their first joint military exercise [25 Aug] with a mock invasion by paratroopers on China's east coast... Propaganda leaflets fell from the sky in 'a psychological tactic to shake the enemy's will,' according to Xinhua... Russian media were denied access to Chinese forces"; Reuters"China Toasts War Games with Russia with a Picnic"NYT 26 Aug 05:- China praised its first joint military exercises with Russia on [26 Aug] for lifting relations to an all-time high and opening room for further cooperation... The last event on the schedule was an outside 'family-style lunch'... washed down with beer"; Reuters"Taiwan's Lee, China's Nemesis, May Visit US - Papers"NYT 01 Sep 05:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, whose visit to US in 95 led China to fire missiles into Taiwan Strait, is planning another trip in Oct, newspapers reported"; Reuters "China Warns Against Missile Help for Taiwan"NYT 01 Sep 05:-"China issued veiled warning to US not to protect rival Taiwan through missile defense system just days before President Hu Jintao meets President Bush in Washington. In...policy paper, cabinet also reiterated China's commitment to policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons and pledged not to engage in a nuclear arms race"; Reuters"China Says Committed to Peace but Warns Taiwan"NYT 03 Sep 05:-"China marked 60th anniversary of Japan's WWII defeat on [03 Sep] with reassurance that it was committed to peace, but warned self-ruled Taiwan... against declaring statehood. [President Hu Jintao] said China would continue to modernise to avert foreign bullying. He tipped his hat to Kuomintang, or Nationalist, generals for fighting the invading Japanese - departure from practice of claiming Communists solely responsible for victory. Nationalists lost ensuing civil war in 1949 and fled to Taiwan, where they ruled for five decades until they lost the 2000 presidential elections. Hu warned Taiwan's incumbent leaders against formally declaring the island independent, but stopped short of repeating a longstanding invasion threat"; AP"Pope Invites Chinese Clergy to Vatican"NYT 08 Sep 05:-"Pope named Chinese bishops from both China's state-controlled and unofficial Catholic churches to attend meeting of world's bishops... Also named bishop of Hong Kong and a Taiwanese bishop... Benedict has been reaching out to Beijing, clearly eager to bring China's 12m Catholics under Rome's wing... Remains to be seen if Beijing will allow any of bishops to travel to Rome"; Reuters"Pope Invites Chinese Bishops, Awaits Govt Response"NYT 08 Sep 05:-"Could herald a new phase in strained relations between Vatican and Beijing... China refuses to allow Vatican to appoint its bishops [and] not allow Catholics to recognize authority of Pope... Despite many overtures, Beijing has insisted diplomatic ties cannot be resumed unless Rome severs links with Taiwan... After election, Pope Benedict said he hoped to establish diplomatic relations with countries that still had no formal ties with Vatican, a clear reference to China, only major power not to recognize Pope"; Reuters"China Decries Vatican Invitation to Four Bishops"NYT 10 Sep 05:-"China, which bans its Catholics from recognising the Pope, has turned down Vatican invitation to four Chinese bishops to go to Rome, saying it showed no respect"; AP"Pope's Invitation to Bishops Angers China"NYT 11 Sep 05:-"'Act goes against the original good intention of pope and shows no respect', [official Xinhua News Agency] said, quoting an unidentified spokesman for the Communist Party-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association and Chinese Catholic Bishops College"; Reuters"Taiwan Fails in 13th Annual Bid for U.N. Seat"NYT 13 Sep 05:-"Taiwan failed [14 Sep] for 13th straight year to get a seat at UN, a move that has been blocked annually since 1993 by archrival China and its allies. A committee of UNGA rejected two proposals that question of UN membership for Taiwan be put on agends for UNGA's 60th session... Committee made decision by consensus, with no formal vote"; Joseph Kahn"China Lectured by Taiwan Ally"NYT 23 Sep 05:-"China's leaders may have felt they had no better friend in Taiwan than Li Ao, a defiant and outspoken politician and author who says that Taiwan should unify with Communist China. But when China invited Lo to tour the mainland this week, Communist Party got a taste of its rival's pungent democracy. During an address at Beijing University [22 Sep], broadcast live on a cable TV network, Li chided China's leaders for suppressing free speech, ridiculed the university administration's fear of academic debate and advised students how to fight for freedom against official repression... Li does not have high profile in Taiwanese politics, but he has an outsize reputation among intellectuals in China for his prolific writings - he has written nearly 100 books - and his fervent belief that Taiwanese should be proud to be part of greater China... When Taiwan became a democracy, he attacked those who supported separatism"; AP"Chinese Commission New Class of Warships"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"China's navy has commissioned first in new class of domestically designed/built warships, official media reported... Missile frigate Wenzhou...representing China's most advanced... The ships are designed to operate far out at sea, part of...a 'blue water' navy intended to assert Chinese claims to Taiwan and other territories and protect sea lanes transporting vital natural resources"; AP"China Launches Major War Games"NYT 27 Sep 05:-"China has vigorously stepped-up training of its 2.5 million-member armed forces in past five years, focusing on Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims as its own territory. With the settling of border disputes with Russia and Central Asian states, Beijing has been able to save money and manpower formerly deployed on its northern and eastern flanks and focus on its coastal regions"; Council on Foreign Relations "Q&A: China's New Internet Restrictions"via NYT 29 Sep 05:-China tightened its already stringent regulations on Internet content this week. Statement 25 Sep from Ministry of Information Industry banned 'subversive' material - including pornography, criticism of government, and sensitive topics like Tibet and Taiwan independence - from the country's computer networks. Instead, only 'healthy, civilized news and information beneficial to the nation' can be posted, ministry said. It is already a crime in China to defame government agencies, divulge state secrets, or promote separatist movements"; Reuters"Time Running Out as Taiwan Wrings Hands Over US Arms"NYT 02 Oct 05:-"Taiwan...parliament agonizes over a huge US weapons package seen as critical in maintaining balance of power with China and Washington... in frustration. Failure to approve $11b budget for submarines/anti-submarine aircraft would seriously erode self-ruled island's defense capabilities/jeopardize security, analysts say... Many security analysts see Taiwan Strait as one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints. 'Within decade, Taiwan would be incapable of mounting any kind of credible defense, and island would become nothing more than a security protectorate of US', said defense analyst. Taiwan's opposition parties, which favor closer ties with China and hold razor-thin majority in parliament, prevented special arms deal... for 30th time this week. Delay has fueled worries in Washington that Taipei not serious about its own defense and US officials... increasing vocal about displeasure. Senior US official recently warned Taiwan that Washington may not come to Taiwan's aid if island cannot defend itself... China, with world's largest standing army at 2.5m troops, has deployed 650-730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles/375,000 ground forces opposite Taiwan, has 700+ aircraft within range and modernizing its longer-range ballistic missile force, Pentagon says... For its part, Taiwan has 300,000 soldiers and about 340 advanced F-16, Mirage and IDF fighters, but it maintains a qualitative edge by possessing three times as many fourth-generation fighters as China... Even though budget has been slashed from $18b to $15b and finally to $11b since last year, opponents said advanced weapons still too expensive and unnecessarily provocative, giving little - if any - indication bill would be passed any time soon... Some analysts said Washington, as well as Taiwan's ruling party, must face political reality and be willing to make further compromise - if necessary"; Reuters"Taiwan President Offers to Brief MPs on Arms Deal"NYT 06 Oct 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian, under pressure from [US] to pass arms package blocked by opposition lawmakers, offered [06 Oct] to deliver a report in parliament to seek support for $11b special budget. Unprecedented for president to present policy in parliament. Under Taiwan's complicated political system, president is head of state who appoints a premier, who in turn delivers government policies to parliament... 'I am willing to personally deliver a report on arms deal that is related to national security and cross-Strait peace in parliament', Chen told forum attended by parliament speaker.. and...chairman of main opposition Nationalist Party (Kuomintang"); Reuters"Former Taiwan President to Visit United States"NYT 07 Oct 05:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, whose last US visit in 1995 led China to fire missiles into Taiwan Strait, will travel to US next week, officials said. Visit by 82-year-old former president - venerated by some as father of Taiwan democracy and leading advocate of independence - is likely to upset China"; Reuters"Taiwan President Sees No Rush for China Talks"NYT 07 Oct 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian declared [07 Oct] he would not be rushed into talks with China, saying it was vital to preserve island's sovereign status... Chen said in interview 'I want to strive for delays while not fearing talks'... He added he would not allow Taiwan to follow Hong Kong model, whereby former British colony became Special Administrative Region of China in 1997. China has promised Taiwan more autonomy than Hong Kong if it accepted Beijing's authority... Chen denied his stance was inflammatory, saying he believed in 'reconsiliation without flinching'. He said he wanted 'to hold a firm stance without becoming confrontational'... He said there was no need to declare independence because facts already proved Taiwan was a country. 'It's a reality. It's the status quo. If we do not ourselves acknowledge we are a sovereign, independent country, if even we don't have confidence in Taiwan being sovereign, independent country, how can we seek support from world?' he said... Only 26 states, including Vatican and Panama, now recognize Taipei. Chen accused opposition leaders...and said their [Beijing visits] were tantamount to surrender... Chen, who must leave office in 2008, said part of his legacy would be to make world see situation between Beijing and Taipei in different way ... Using island's official name, he continued:'The Republic of China in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China on the mainland are not the same. They are under divided rule and do not exercise jurisdiction on each other'"; Economist 08 Oct 05"Taiwan and America: Still Waiting"(52):-"When George Bush took office in 2001, he made two bold commitments to Taiwan. First was his declaration to do 'whatever it takes' to help defend the Asian democracy, presumably against a China that claims the territory for its own. Second was to offer a package of advanced weapons, including submarines and anti-missile batteries, with which Taiwanese could boost their defensive capacities. Four years on, there is no sign of these weapons arriving, since Taiwan has not approved a budget for them. Bush administration is getting impatient"; Reuters"Chen Says It's Up to Taiwan to Defend Itself"NYT 10 Oct 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian highlighted China's military expansion to drum up support for arms package in National Day speech [10 Oct], warning that self-ruled island cannot count on others to defend it. Speaking to thousands attending festivities, Chen expressed frustration at opposition's bid to block $11b special arms budget seen as crucial to prevent imbalance of military power in area... 'We cannot expect to rely on others for Taiwan's own self-defense. Instead, we must shoulder responsibilities to build up sufficient national defense, psychological defense and civil defense', he said... Taiwan's main opposition party [says arms deal] is over-expensive, provocative and unnecessary"; AP"China Warns Canada on Taiwan Trade Bill"NYT 12 Oct 05:-"China warned [non-governmental/unlikely] bill before Canadian parliament, calling for formal trade and cultural ties with Taiwan, could [hurt] ties between Ottawa and Beijing. [I]ssue creating tensions as Canada and China move toward building much stronger trade ties"; Reuters "China to Mark Taiwan Return From Japan for 1st Time"NYT 13 Oct 05:-"China, asserting its claim to Taiwan, will for first time mark anniversary of island's return to Chinese rule [25 Oct]. Communist China has so far never celebrated anniversary because doing so would complicate its claim that Communist Red Army, not Nationalists, won eight-year war against Japan [in 1945]... Anniversary celebrated in Taiwan,... though President Chen... has played it down in recent years... China-Taiwan relations have thawed this year following visits by Taiwan opposition politicians, opening of mainland air space to Taiwan airlines and Beijing's promises to give Taipei pandas"; Reuters"Lee Set to Promote Taiwan Independence on US Trip"NYT 15 Oct 05:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui heads to Washington this week to pedal his vision of an independent Taiwan, aiming to draw international attention to China's military threats against his island... Fiercely pro-independence Lee is set to further irk China by touring US capital [and visit US lawmakers on Capitol Hill] just as US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld visits Beijing. [China] had briefly downgraded ties with Washington and froze what had been warming semi-official talks with Taipei... Washington said Lee is on a private visit. While in US, Lee is expected to promote a pro-independence movement to formalize Taiwan's de facto sovereignty by changing island's official name to Republic of Taiwan - a move China has warned could lead to war"; Thom Shanker"Gingerly, U.S. and China Plan to Strengthen Military Ties"NYT 19 Oct 05:-"Defense Secretary Donald H.Rumsfeld and the Chinese leadership agreed [19 Oct] to strengthen military ties, even as Rumsfeld said China needed to clarify its regional military goals and his Chinese counterpart rejected Pentagon assessments that Beijing understated its military spending... Rumsfeld became first foreigner to visit HQ of China's strategic missile fleet... According to US officials, missile forces commander told Rumsfeld that China would not be first to use nuclear weapons, but would use them only in self-defense. Statement was interpreted by Pentagon officials as repudiation of comments by another Chinese general [14 Jul 05 above] that any attack on China by US forces responding to a Taiwan crisis might result in nuclear retaliation. Rumsfeld was also told that China's nuclear missile fleet not currently aimed at any other nation... President Hu Jintao said improving military cooperation would percolate across both governments and benefit broader relationship between the nations. President Bush to visit China next month. Hu said talks with Rumsfeld would 'help the military forces of our two countries to better enhance their mutual understanding and friendship'. This military relationship, Hu said, 'will also play important facilitating role in promoting growth of our relationship as a whole'. Rumsfeld said US and China would benefit from more naval visits and educational exchanges 'to demystify' how the two nations view each other"; Reuters"Rumsfeld Urges Chinese Clarity on Missile Build-Up"NYT 20 Oct 05:-"China needs to provide wary neighbours a clear explanation of its missile build-up, Rumsfeld said [20 Oct], final day of visit to Beijing. Rumsfeld told Chinese strategic experts... that Pentagon believed China was expanding reach of its arsenal of ballistic missiles to cover most of the world... '[A] number of countries with interests in the region are asking questions about China's intentions', he added... On [19 Oct], Rumsfeld and senior Pentagon officials emerged from talks with Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan and other generals citing what they called welcome signs of a cautious opening by the secretive People's Liberation Army... Cao disputed US assertions that China understates its military spending, saying the $30.2 billion figure China published this year was the true budget... [Pentagon] report said China added about 100 missiles/yearto arsenal of 650-730 short-range missiles pointed at rival Taiwan and was fielding missiles capable of reaching nearly all of US... Rumsfeld and Cao to work to boost military educational exchanges"; Thom Shanker"Rumsfeld Tells China Its Military Buildup Worries Neighbours"NYT 20 Oct 05:-"Defense Secretary Rumsfeld concluded visit to Beijing [20 Oct] with unusual round table with Chinese officers about the two countries' military abilities and intentions. Rumsfeld told students and faculty members at Academy of Military Sciences that China's neighbours worried about its decisions to expand its missile forces, and to increase their range... 'Enabling those forces to reach many areas of world well beyond Pacific region', he said.'Those advances...raise questions, particularly when imperfect understanding of such developments on part of others'. He said other nations had a right to question... One Chinese officer rejected Rumsfeld's critique that Beijing's military budget remained a mystery, saying that increases were required to modernize Chinese forces after years of inadequate spending"; Esther Pan"Q&A: China's Military Threat"Council on Foreign Relations via NYT 24 Oct 05:-analysis offers views of experts on following questions:"What's the current strength of China's military? What military threats does China face? Is China becoming more assertive militarily? What is China's diplomatic policy? What are Taiwan's concerns? What are Japan's concerns? What about Russia? What about Southeast Asia? How should US handle China's military rise?"; AP"China Marks End of Japan Rule Over Taiwan" NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Chinese leaders held official ceremony, while state press called for Taiwan to unite... In commemorations marking 'recovery of Taiwan from Japanese occupation' 25 Oct 45, Beijing has sought to play up island's historical connection to mainland... People's Daily declared in front-page editorial: 'Taiwan has never been a country but is instead inalienable part of Chinese territory'. It called on Chinese people on both sides to work toward unification"; Reuters"China Seeks "Revival" as It Marks Return of Taiwan"NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Beijing, asserting claim to self-ruled Taiwan, called for national 'revival' as it marked 60th anniversary of island reverting to Chinese rule, first major commemoration of the event in five decades"; Reuters"Vatican Lists Conditions for Ties with China"NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Pope Benedict's top diplomat said Holy See was always ready to end relations with Taiwan and return its embassy to Beijing but that China must respect religious freedom and treat Vatican fairly"; AP"Vatican Urges End to Tensions With China"NYT 25 Oct 05:-"Holy See hopes tensions between Catholic Church and China will end soon, Vatican's secretary of state was quoted as saying... [O]fficial [said Holy See ready for dialogue and contacts"; Reuters"US Approves $280 Mln Missile Sale to Taiwan"NYT 26 Oct 05:-"US Defense Department on [26 Oct] notified Congress it had approved sale to Taiwan of 10 AIM-9M Sidewinder missiles and 5 AIM-7M Sparrow missiles - both built by Raytheon Co. Proposed sale... also included continuation of pilot training program and logistics support for F-16 aircraft, as well as associated equipment and services"; Reuters "China Sends Top Tourism Officials to Taiwan"NYT 28 Oct 05:-"China's top official in charge of tourism began 10-day visit to Taiwan, fuelling hopes trip could open floodgates for Chinese tourists to visit island... While Taiwan government has said no official negotiation will take place during tour, hopes are high it can be major step toward ushering in Chinese tourists - a potent economic force, as evident in nearby Hong Kong... China has restricted visits by its citizens to Taiwan since 1949... Limited number of mainlanders are now able to travel to Taiwan, mostly on business. Beijing first offered to let mainland tourists visit Taiwan in May and called for negotiations with Taipei on details. Taiwan has its own tough rules restricting mainland visitors and bans direct air links on grounds of national security"; AP"Chinese Tourism Official Visits Taiwan"NYT 28 Oct 05:-"Senior Chinese tourism official begen key visit to Taiwan [28 Oct] that could help revive island's bealeagured tourism sector and ease tensions between longtime rivals... Director of China's State Administration of Tourism was to inspect Taiwanese tourist facilities at head of 66-member delegation... But...Taiwan's government will have to agree to opening doors to visitors... While more than 1m Taiwanese visits to mainland in 2004, visits by Chinese to Taiwan have been severely limited, ostensibly because of Taiwanese concerns over potential spies or saboteurs... However,... heavy pressure from Taiwan's beleaguered tourism industry... World Tourism Organization estimates that number of Chinese traveling overseas will soar from current 10m/year to 50m by 2010, and to 100m by 2020, making China leading source of tourists worldwide"; Reuters"Taiwan Ready to Discuss Air Charters with China"NYT 04 Nov 05:-"Taiwan said ready to talk to China about allowing direct charter flights ahead of the peak Lunar New Year travel season in early 2006, a day after an invitation by Beijing. But island's top China policy-making body... said it would prefer to discuss opening of direct cargo and passenger charters on a regular basis as well, and urged Beijing to be flexible... Despite often testy ties, Taiwan companies are estimated to have invested over US$100b in China since 1980s. Estimated 1m of Taiwan's people, or 5% of its population, work or live in China and must normally transit through places such as Hong Kong when traveling between the two sides, adding at least 4 hours to their journeys. Direct air links would be latest in a series of developments, from visits to mainland by Taiwan opposition politicians to Beijing's promises to give Taipei two endangered pandas, that have thawed relations between the two sides this year"; AP"Taiwan Mulls Expansion of Charter Flights"NYT 04 Nov 05:-"Taiwan considering expanding charter flights to rival China for upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, in latest sign of improved commercial relations between longtime adversaries... While commercial ties between island and mainland have boomed over past 15 years,... Taiwan opposes commercial flights, ostensibly for security reasons. Earlier this year, China renewed a proposal to raise number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan to 360,000/year - more than 10 times current level... Heavy pressure from Taiwan's tourism industry, which views Chinese market as a key element in its future growth"; Reuters"China Tourism Chief Seeks Taiwan Talks - Paper"NYT 05 Nov 05:-"China's top tourism official has invited Taiwan industry representatives to visit to discuss Chinese tourists traveling to island, fuelling hopes of a possible flood of tourism dollars from the mainland, newspaper said... Independence-leaning government of President Chen Shui-bian cautiously welcomed Beijing's previous offer, saying island could accommodate 1,000 Chinese tourists/day, and might allow the tourists to stay for up to 10 days... Some analysts estimate Chinese tourists can add at least $660m or 0.2%, to Taiwan's $330b economy. However tourism accounts for less than 3% of economy"; AP "U.S. Troops in Asia Undergo Transformation"NYT 16 Nov 05:-"North Korea's military power hasn't suddenly changed. It claims to have nukes and its million-man army is ready to roll. China, meanwhile, is engaging as the new Asian military leader [, raising even more concern in Taiwan], and terrorism is flaring up all over the region. But at US's major Asian outposts, some serious downsizing under way... US position isn't weakening, say officials and analysts; cutbacks will be counterbalanced by improved equipment, organization and cooperation... In its biggest reorganization in two decades, US will shed 12,500 of its 32,500-strong force in Korea over next 3 years, reduce its number of bases by about 75% and hand over major elements of troops' mission to their Korean counterparts, who will 'play larger and larger role', US Defense Secretary said on recent Asia tour. Similar restructuring afoot in Japan, where nearly 50,000 US troops are stationed. US and Japan just agreed to most sweeping changes in deployments there..., plan that... includes withdrawal of about 7,000 of 18,000 Marines on crowded island of Okinawa... An analyst...says aim is to streamline, but not undermine, the alliance... Changes in Korea are in line with shifts now taking place within entire Army, moving toward combat teams 'smaller but fully capable and fully lethal packages that can be deployed faster', said [chief of force development and plans for 8th US Army in Korea]... By end of 2005, 8th Army will have shed 8,000 troops. Another 3,500 will leave by 2008, along with 1,000 Air Force... Facing increased demands on its own troops in Iraq/elsewhere, Washington pushing Seoul and Tokyo to assume bigger role in regional security and in their own defense - and both appear willing"; David E.Sanger"Bush , in Japan, Suggests That China Expand Freedoms"NYT 16 Nov 05:-"President Bush planned to open his tour of Asia [16 Nov] with carefully couched warning to China's leaders, telling them they are finding 'once the door to freedom is opened even a crack, it cannot be closed'... Speech...stopped well short of prescribing to Chinese a future course... But coming just 3 days before Bush lands in Beijing, speech implicitly urges China's leaders to follow path of Japan, South Korea and - in a comparison senior administration officials said they knew would annoy Beijing - Taiwan, which Bush called 'free and democratic and prosperous'... Japanese PM Koizumi asked Bush whether he was urging China to follow Taiwan's path to a Chinese-style democracy. He did not answer directly, but said, 'What I say to the Chinese is that a free society is in your interest'. He then repeated that his one-China policy - calling for peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan - was unchanged... In his discussion of North Korea, Bush makes only briefest reference to country's 'pursuit of nuclear weapons'... He said 'we will not forget the people of North Korea', declaring that '21st century will be freedom's century for all Koreans'... He did not repeat his past characterization of Kim Jong Il, North's leader, as a tyrant... President's characterization of China...closely scrutinized... At issue is how US should treat President Hu's claims that China's ambition is simply for 'peaceful rise' to superpower status... Bush did not use words 'strategic competitor' to describe China, a phrase he often reached for during his 2000 presidential campaign and in early days of his first term"; Economist 19 Nov 05"China and the West: Meeting the Superpower"(Edit.11-2):-offers variety of advice that is felt relevant to US President's visit. Its essence is: "George Bush should treat China as an opportunity, not just a threat". Following parts are those relevant to US concern about Taiwan: "China may not be another Evil Empire, but it is still a repressive one-party state: can it be changed, or must it merely be made room for? Will what China has termed its 'peaceful rise' really be that, or could it become more confrontation? This debate has long obsessed China's neighbours, notably Taiwan... Bush needs to balance two sometimes competing imperatives. First is to continue to use US muscle to encourage China's leaders to behave better towards their neighbours... China needs to be talked out of its missile build-up opposite Taiwan... Regime does, after all, sometimes listen. When its National People's Congress passed resolution in [Mar 05] threatening Taiwan with invasion, ensuing outcry in the West destroyed Hu's hopes of the arms embargo - imposed on China after the Tiananmen massacre of 1989 - being lifted in Europe. Since then, China has courted Taiwan's politicians - albeit the opposition ones - and toned down its attacks on its president, even though it abhors his support for the island's independence... Second imperative is for US to find way to work harmoniously alongside China that is just beginning to find its way as a great power"; Economist 19 Nov 05"China's World Order: Aphorisms and Suspicions"(23-5):-Special Report also covers many US interests in China since:"As George Bush goes to China, the world's two biggest powers continue nervously to appraise each other's ambitions". Following are Taiwan-related portions: "China, as an emerging power at odds with US ideology, would be a beneficiary of a world order in which US power is constrained... Just as US is hedging its relationship with China by maintaining a strong military presence in Asia, so China is trying to strengthen its relationships in Asia and farther afield. This is at least partly a precaution against encirclement by a string of US bases around Asia... and an enhancement in recent years of US security ties with Japan and Taiwan. China has no bases abroad [but in Aug 05] China and Russia staged their first joint military manoeuvres since the cold war. 'Peace Mission 2005', billed as a counter-terrorist exercise, looked far more like preparation for a Chinese assault on Taiwan... China came close last year to driving a wedge between US and EU. Much to US consternation, the Europeans appeared to be moving towards accepting China's demand that they lift their embargo on arms sales to China, which was imposed in the wake of the Tiananmen Square killings of 1989. US feared this would give China access to military technologies that could be used in conflict with US in Taiwan Strait ...Latest annual report by US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, bipartisan US congressional panel of usually gloomy cast,... refers to 'growing volume and credibility' of Chinas threats against Taiwan ... No sign US remonstrations have persuaded China to put brakes on its military build-up on coast facing Taiwan - estimated by Pentagon to include deployment of between 650 and 730 mobile short-range ballistic missiles, with the number increasing by around 100 each year. But there are plenty of signs that China has little interest in resolving Taiwan issue militarily and that it regards its extensive economic ties with Taiwan as hugely important. Assuming Taiwan does not declare formal independence - a step that US would do its utmost to deter Taiwan from taking - China appears ready to live with status quo of Taiwan that is, in effect, independent already. China's growing military capability by no means gives it confidence that a military strike would help it achieve durable political control in Taiwan at a sustainable diplomatic and economic cost... Bush made sharp remarks about Taiwan's 'free and democratic society'... but his officials have focused on trade issues rather than security matters" (see Economist 19 Nov 05"Tensions With China: The New Face of Globalisation"(27-8); Council on Foreign Relations"Q&A: The Dispute Brtween China and Taiwan" via NYT 22 Nov 05:-analysis offers factual answers to following questions: What is the state of China-Taiwan relations? What is the history of the conflict? What is the U.S. position? What is the impetus behind independence for Taiwan? What has China been doing? What are the next steps? What are Taiwan's security concerns? Many elements of the current situation were provided by David Kang, an Asia expert and visiting professor at Stanford University. "Kang points out a military invasion of Taiwan by China is highly improbable. 'That's the least likely scenario', he says. 'You can have a military dispute that's far short of all-out war'"; AP"Taiwan Opposition Wins Local Elections"NYT 03 Dec 05:-"Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party won overwhelming victory in island-wide municipal elections [03 Dec], putting it in position to push its agenda of reunification with China during 2008 presidential campaign... Nationalist candidates or Nationalist allies won 17 of the 23 constituencies, while candidates of President Chen's ruling Democratic Progressive Party were assured of victory in six... Results constituted huge vote of confidence in Nationalist Party Chairman Ma Ying-jeou, elected to office five months ago. Likely will lead party's ticket in 2008 presidential poll. Nationalists' policy is eventual reunification with rival China... Campaign has been marked by widespread allegations of vote buying and fraud"; Reuters"Taiwan's Ruling Party Loses Local Elections"NYT 03 Dec 05:-"Taiwan's main opposition party trounced ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) in local government elections in what analysts view as no confidence vote in President Chen Shui-bian. Nationalists (Kuomintang or KMT) won 50.96% of votes, giving them 14 out of 23 county and city magistrate posts across island. DPP won 41.95% of votes and grabbed six seats. Remaining three seats went to KMT allies. 'Today's election outcome is a major defeat for our party. It's a stern warning to DPP from Taiwan's people', sadi DPP Chairman... Election loss is likely to weaken Chen's mandate in remainder of his presidency... In KMT camp, opposition party leaders celebrated their first landslide election victory since losing two successive presidential races to Chen in 2000 and 2004"; Reuters"Hard Road Seen for Taiwan's Chen After Elections"NYT 04 Dec 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian is in danger of becoming a lame duck for the remaining 2-years of his term after his party's crushing defeat in local government elections, political commentators said [04 Dec]. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party(DPP), damaged by a corruption scandal, won just six of 23 mayoral and county magistrate posts in [03 Dec] polls, with the rest going to opposition National Party(KMT) and its allies. Analysts say a chastened DPP may make some concessions, such as agreeing to business sector's demand for lower trade and investment barriers with China, but more decisive policy moves may take a back seat to cleaning house and dealing with an emboldened opposition... President has been under pressure to reconcile with China and improve economic ties with the mainland, Taiwan's biggest export market, where the island's companies are estimated to have poured in over $100b in investments"; David S.Cloud"Navy to Expand Fleet With New Enemies in Mind"NYT 03 Dec 05:-"[US] Navy wants to increase its fleet.., reversing years of decline in naval shipbuilding and adding dozens of warships designed to defeat emerging adversaries, [US] officials say... While increasing fleet size is popular [in] Congress, plan faces various obstacles, including questions about whether affordable...and whether the mix of vessels is suitable to deal with emerging threats, like China's expanding navy... [F]leet reached its cold war peak... in 1987 and... steadily shrinking since then... 'Navy appears... grappling with need to balance funding for supporting its role in the global war on terrorism against those for meeting a potential challenge from modernized Chinese maritime military forces', said a naval analyst. [P]lan calls for building 55 small, fast vessels called littoral combat ships, which are being designed to allow Navy to operate in shallow coastal areas where mines and terrorist bombings are a growing threat. Costing less than $300m, littoral combat ship is relatively inexpensive... Choices have led some analysts to suggest Navy is de-emphasizing threat from China, at least in early stages of the shipbuilding plan. Beijing's investment in submarines, cruise missiles and other weapon systems expected to pose major threat to US warships for at least a decade... 'This is not a fleet that is being oriented to Chinese threat', said an analyst. 'It's being oriented around irregular warfare, stability operations and dealing with rogue states'"; Reuters"Taiwan Chen's Approval Rating Falls to All - Time Low"NYT 05 Dec 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's popularity has fallen to lowest level since took office five years ago, newspaper poll showed... United Daily News reported [05 Dec] that survey showed Chen's approval rating falling to 21%, down from 25% in Oct. Chen enjoyed 79% support in Jun 00, month after he took office"; Reuters"China Extends Reporter's Detention: Straits Times"NYT 10 Dec 05:-"Singapore's newspaper said Chinese authorities had extended the detention of its chief correspondent in China, who was arrested earlier this year on charges of spying for Taiwan. Ching Cheong first detained in Apr in Southern China, and formally arrested in Aug... So far, all requests for a lawyer to meet with Ching have been turned down, paper said"; Reuters"China Bids Farewell to Top Negotiator with Taiwan"NYT 30 Dec 05:-"Hundreds of people turned out [30 Dec] for funeral of China's top negotiator with Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, but envoys from the self-ruled island's government were conspicuous by their absence. Wang Daihan, president of the semi-official Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, died... at age of 90. His replacement has yet to be named... The only direct contact between Beijing and Taipei around the funeral came through letters exchanged between Wang's association and its Taiwan counterpart, the Straits Exchange Foundation, which handles Taiwan's relations with China in the absence of official ties... In the end, Taiwan government said it would not send any officials to the funeral, but China's official Xinhua news agency said representatives of Taiwan opposition parties... will attend... Fence-minding dialogue between Beijing and Taipei has been frozen since 1999"; Reuters"Taiwan's Chen Signals Tighter Policy Toward China"NYT 31 Dec 05:-"Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian signaled a tightening stance toward China... as he warned his people of investment risks in the mainland and growing military ambition by the island's political foe. Defying expectations that he would take a more conciliatory approach to mend ties, Chen said the government would assume the role of a gatekeeper to guard Taiwan's economic security... Analysts said Chen's comments were likely to pour cold water on the financial markets, which have been betting on closer economic and trade links across the narrow Taiwan Strait... Underscoring China's threat, Chen said People Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed 784 ballistic missiles targetted at the island and set up a 3-stage war plan against Taiwan. PLA aims to establish contingency-response combat capabilities by 2007, build up combat capabilities for large-scale military engagement by 2010 and to ensure victory in a decisive battle by 2015, Chen said... In a move sure to anger Beijing, Chen said the island could hold a referendum on the new constitution by 2007 if conditions become mature. Beijing sees Chen's constitutional re-engineering project as a provocative step toward formal statehood"; AP"Taiwan Leader Still Plans Referendum"NYT 01 Jan 06:-"President Chen... pledged to push... for a new constitution for Taiwan in his last two years in office despite warnings from China and growing domestic opposition. Chen's remarks appeared to crush expectations that he might give in to mounting domestic pressure to reconcile with rival China following his party's setback in 03 Dec municipal elections... Chen has claimed that the proposed constitution is aimed at creating a political system that befits the island, not to prepare for formal independence. But Beijing continues to distrust the independence-leaning Taiwanese leader... Chen indicated he would not be pressured to remove barriers on trade and investment with China... Despite political tensions, trade has boomed between the two sides. Taiwanese businesses have poured more than $100b into China and they want Taipei to end a ban on direct transportation links with the mainland"; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Chief Seeks More Arms, Not Better Ties to China"NYT 02 Jan 06:-"President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan called [01 Jan] for increased arms purchases and warned against greater economic ties to mainland China, in TV speech that silenced months of speculation that he might soon seek to improve relations across Taiwan Strait. Speech was Chen's first major policy address since his Democratic Progressive Party fared badly in islandwide elections. His party favors greater political independence from mainland... Chen made clear... that Taiwanese policy had not changed fundamentally. He used several politically charged phrases that appeal to independence advocates ... He also urged legislature to approve his long-stalled plans to buy more weapons from US and raised again possibility of referendum to rewrite Constitution... He was particularly emphatic in warning of risk posed by rapid modernization of PLA on mainland, especially its heavy investments in missiles that can reach Taiwan... 'Taiwan must not rest its faith on chance or harbor any illusions', he said. Beijing had no immediate reaction... Speech seemed to emphasize shoring up support for hard-line supporters of independence... President referred as many as 70 times to the island as Taiwan instead of its legal name, Republic of China... Island's Constitution still states that Republic of China has jurisdiction over all of China, including the mainland, but President Chen has shifted away from this in his own comments for years... One common worry in Taiwan involves growing economic dependence on the mainland and the extent to which the mainland economy now dwarfs Taiwan's. China's economy is expanding more than twice as fast as Taiwan's and is now six times the size of Taiwan's"; Reuters"Reporter Held in China 'Likely to Face Trial': Wife"NYT 05 Jan 06:-"Case of a Singapore reporter held in China and accused of spying for Taiwan has been passed to prosecution and his wife said it was likely he would face trial, South China Morning Post reported. Ching Cheong... held in Apr 05 in southern China and formally arrested in Aug, one of a series of detentions of Chinese reporters that have stoked international criticism of China's controls on media... Xinhua news agency said last year Ching received millions of HK dollars from Taiwan's intelligence apparatus and used the money to buy unspecified information on China's political, economic and military affairs 2000-05"; AP"China to Offer Two Pandas to Rival Taiwan"NYT 06 Jan 06:-"China said it has picked a pair of pandas to offer to rival Taiwan as part of efforts to boost public support for uniting with communist mainland. Taiwan, however, accused Beijing of acting rudely by announcing the gift without consulting the island... Beijing announced offer in May 05 when two Taiwanese opposition leaders visited mainland in island's highest-level trip since the two sides split in 1949 amid civil war... But Taiwanese officials reacted coolly to Chinese announcement... Beijing has been trying to isolate Taiwan's independence-leaning President Chan Shui-bian, forging ties with his political rivals and wooing farmers and other voters by offering concessions such as tariff cuts on imported Taiwanese fruit... Beijing also is lobbying Taiwan to drop its ban on direct air and shipping links between the two sides. Taipei has been reluctant to do so for fear of domination by its giant neighbour"; Reuters"China Military 'Lean, Responsive' After Cutbacks"NYT 09 Jan 06:-"China's military has cut back its troops by 200,000, the official mouthpiece of People's Liberation Army [PLA] said on 09 Jan, reinforcing its high-tech military ambitions to overtake rival Taiwan... China had 2.5m serving military in 2003 when the cuts started... After cutbacks, proportion of military serving in infantry had fallen to an 'historic low', while share in navy, air force and Second Artillery Corps - which maintains China's nuclear missiles - had risen, paper said. Paper also said 'high-tech' forces had increased. China has asserted developing or buying several advanced weapons, including surveillance satellites, missiles and 'blue water' naval vessels and submarines. Military analysts say many of innovation were intended to reinforce China's military threat against Taiwan,.. and counter US military dominance in Asia-Pacific region. China, which many analysts believe still lacks military strength for decisive action against Taiwan, has said it will not rule out war if Taiwan pushes for formal independence"; AP"Oohs and Aahs and a Nah"NYT 10 Jan 06:-"Taiwan's premier, Frank Hsieh, said the island was unlikely to accept the offer of two pandas from China because doing so could 'compromise our sovereignty'... Pictures of the year-old bears were featured prominently in the local new media, capturing the hearts of many Taiwanese. But Hsieh said China would have to comply with international wildlife rules, with Taiwan signing as the importing country. 'China could not possibly agree to recognize Taiwan as a country', he said"; Reuters"Taiwan's Ex - President Lee May Visit Japan"NYT 11 Jan 06:-"Former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui wants to travel to Japan in May, a [Japanese] newspaper reported, and Chief Cabinet Secretary... said [Japanese] government would decide appropriately on whether to admit him. Any such visit would likely annoy China... Japan...has working, non-governmental ties with Taiwan... [Newspaper] said Japan would decide whether to issue Lee a tourist visa after confirming whether he would refrain from political activities"; Reuters"China Hijacker of Plane to Taiwan Freed on Parole"NYT 12 Jan 06:-"Chinese hijacker who used a fake gun to divert a plane to self-ruled Taiwan has been released on parole for good behaviour after serving more than a dozen years in prison, [China] media reported... It was one of a rash of hijackings in China in early 1990s, mostly by disgruntled people seeking asylum in Taiwan, some in the hope of cash rewards... He spent over six years behind bars on the island... before he was released and deported to China in 2001... A Chinese court gave [him] an additional 13 years in jail. But he ended up serving less than four because he was such a determined worker, newspaper said"; Reuters"Taiwan Premier Quits in Expected Cabinet Shuffle"NYT 17 Jan 06:-"President Chen Shui-bian said [17 Jan] he had accepted resignation of Premier Frank Hsieh in a long-expected cabinet reshuffle after ruling party's crushing defeat in Dec local government elections. Under Taiwan's political system, democratically elected president appoints premier who forms cabinet and runs day-to-day government. Chen is head of the military and sets policy toward China... Taiwan media have speculated Chen will appoint his popular former chief of staff, Su Tseng-chang, in a bid to shore up his own poor approval rating... Su quit as chairman of DPP to take responsibility for election loss, but many voters/analysts still see him as strong DPP candidate for 2008 presidential race... Premier has faced many policy obstructions in parliament, which is dominated by KMT alliance holding slim majority of legislative seats. Hsieh will step down after less than a year in office... Analysts say deep mistrust between ruling and opposition parties and ideological differences over Taiwan's ties with China make a coalition government highly unlikely"; AP"Taiwan's President Appoints New Premier"NYT 18 Jan 06:-"Taiwan's president appointed [Su Tseng-chang], a popular politician and former party chief, as the island's next premier... in a move aimed at regaining support for the ruling party ahead of 2008 presidential election... [Su] has won widespread plaudits for his indefatigable efforts on behalf of DPP candidates during the campaign, and is viewed by many as ruling party's most likely presidential candidate after Chen serves out his term in 2008. [H]e would face the hugely popular Nationalist Party leader, Ma Ying-jeou, the Harvard-educated mayor of the capital of Taipei. Observers have said Su must shake up the ruling party, improve government performance and overcome legislative gridlock before he would have any chance to win 2008 race"; Reuters"Su Tseng - Chang Nominated as Taiwan's New Premier"NYT 19 Jan 06:-"Taiwan president... nominated his former chief of staff... to be premier of a new cabinet... weeks after adopting a tougher policy stance toward rival China... Analysts said Chen handpicked the popular Su in a bid to shore up his own poor approval rating... Su has been relatively moderate in his public statements on China, having backed Chen's policies but refrained from using harsh rhetoric against Beijing while serving as DPP chairman"; Reuters"Taiwan Launches Holiday Flights to Rival China"NYT 19 Jan 06:-"Hundreds of Taiwanese arrived in China to celebrate Lunar New Year festival , only time of the year when diplomatic rivals Taipei and Beijing permit non-stop flights... This year's charter flights have been expanded to allow any Taiwanese to fly, whereas last year's charters were restricted to China-based Taiwan business people and their families. The non-stop charters that run until 07 Feb are the closest thing to direct flights across Taiwan Strait - though planes technically have to fly through Hong Kong or Macau air space - as permanent air links have been banned since Taiwan and China split at end of Chinese civil war... Taiwan and China first arranged holiday flights during Lunar New Year holiday last year, a time for far-flung families to gather in the biggest migration of humanity on Earth. Turning the once-in-a-year agreement into a regular service looks a long way off, however... Six airlines from each side will operate 72 flights between four Chinese cities and two Taiwan cities 20 Jan-13 Feb. There are about 300,000 Taiwanese living in Shanghai alone"; AP"Taiwanese Airline Begins New Year Flights"NYT 20 Jan 06:-"Taiwan allowed students and tour groups to fly direct to China for the first time in the third annual installment of symbolic Chinese New Year flights aimed at warming tense relations with the mainland... In 2003 and 2005, they were limited to Taiwanese businesspeople living on the mainland"; Economist 21 Jan 06"Taiwan: Desperate Chen"(44):-"Yu Shyi-kun, a former PM, elected chairman of Democratic Progressive Party 15 Jan... Yu owed his ascendancy to trouncing of his party in local elections...which resulted in resignation of his predecessor, Su Tseng-chang. Su, however, has now become PM in his turn after the sudden 'resignation' of Frank Hsieh - the fourth PM since 2000... The changes show that a deep unpopular president is circling the wagons. When President Chen Shui-bian was re-elected in Mar 04 he appeared to have performed a miracle. [B]een downhill since then. First, failure... to win a legislative majority in elections in Dec 04. Many blame Chen for campaigning on questions of national identity, not bread and butter issues... Government's inability to take a firm line on dalliance with China... made Chen look impotent. His popularity has slumped since then. Chen... may be planning again. His new year's speech suggested a tightening of economic policy toward China... Feisty Su would give president a premier more amenable to China-bashing, while Yu, as the new DPP head, is an ultra-efficient Chen loyalist who will win over dissenters among the party faithful"; Reuters"Taiwan Premier to Follow Chen's Tough China Tack"NYT 25 Jan 06:-"Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang was sworn in with a new cabinet [25 Jan], pledging to uphold President Chan Shui-bian's latest policy statement which signaled a tougher stance on China. Su vowed to form a clean government [but] gave no policy specifics at the handover ceremony and analysts do not expect major changes since, under Taiwan's political system, premier is appointed by president, who sets China and foreign policy"; Keith Bradsher"Taiwan Leader Calls for End of Unification Council"NYT 31 Jan 06:-"Latest fracas in Taiwan over island's National Unification Council is especially baffling. Theoretically charged with reviewing an eventual political unification of Taiwan with mainland, council has not met since Apr 99... Yet council's mere existence is still enough to inflame passions, as President Chen showed when he merely mentioned an interest in abolishing council and guidelines it administers... President also suggested that Taiwan might apply this year to UN as Taiwan instead of using its less controversial legal name, the Republic of China, and that his country might work on a new draft of its constitution... US State Department voiced surprise at Chen's remarks and said... that US opposes any unilateral change in status quo by either side... Some of President Chen's speeches... lately have contained hints of a desire to pursue a more confrontational policy toward Beijing"; Reuters"U.S. Seeks to Curb China's Might: Pentagon Official"NYT 02 Feb 06:-"Pentagon is seeking to dissuade China from building its military forces to a level not warranted by its security needs, and issue is addressed in new long-term Pentagon plan. Senior US official... said Washington wanted to make sure Chinese 'have the forces necessary to provide for their genuine security needs and not to go beyond that'. No further details. Matter addressed in Quadrennial Defense Review, bluepoint for changes to US strategy and forces... Bush administration frequently has voiced concern about China's growing military spending. After as many as 17 years of double-digit defense spending increases, China is currently spending two to three times more than the $30b publicly announced as its defense budget, US officials estimate... US is eager to head off any showdown with China over Taiwan... Bush vowed in Apr 00 to do whatever it took to help Taiwan defend itself if attacked, although his position has become more ambiguous as administration maneuvers to forestall any possible conflict"; Norimitsu Onishi"Japanese Remarks About Taiwan Anger Beijing"NYT 06 Feb 06:-"Quarrel between Tokyo and Beijing over Japan's colonial and wartime history spilled over to sensitive topic of Taiwan after Japan's foreign minister praised his country's past rule over the island. The FM, Taro Aso, said in a speech that Taiwan's present high educational standards resulted from Japanese colonial policies. China, which ceded Taiwan after losing a war to Japan in 1895 and considers the island a renegade province, condemned the comments. Aso said that 'thanks to the significant improvement in educational standards and literacy' during Japan's colonial rule, 'Taiwan is now a country with a very high education level and keeps up with the current era'... China reacts acutely to any perceived foreign encroachment on Taiwanese affairs. Not surprisingly, the Chinese responded perhaps even more sharply than usual because those comments came from Japan. 'We are shocked by and express our strong indignation over the Japanese FM's remark of overtly glorifying invasion history', said Chinese FM spokesman... Japanese rule 'made Taiwan people suffer enslavement and brought grave disaster to the Chinese nation'"; Reuters"China Slams Taiwan President as 'Troublemaker'"NYT 08 Feb 06:-"China condemned Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian's plan to scrap 15-year-old official guidelines on unification, calling him a 'troublemaker' and 'saboteur' of peace and stability in Asia. Chen, seeking to shake off Beijing's claim of sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan, said last month that it was time to consider scrapping the island's National Unification Council and its guidelines on unification with mainland. 'This demonstrates once again that he is a troublemaker and saboteur of cross-Strait relations and peace and stability in Asia', [Chinese] spokesman told news conference... Taiwan Strait, separating island and mainland, is considered one of Asia's hottest flashpoints. [He] did not say how China would respond if Chen scrapped the guidelines and council... Taiwan responded, calling China a troublemaker for its military build-up... If Chen dissolved council and guidelines, he would break a promise he made in his 2000 inauguration speech. He also vowed then not to declare Taiwan formally independent... US restated its support for 'one China' policy that has been the bedrock of Sino-US ties for about three decades and urged the two sides to avoid misunderstandings"; Financial Times"Beijing's Wrath Finds Little Echo in Taiwan"NYT 09 Feb 06:-"When Japan's Foreign Minister suggested recently that Taiwan's high educational standards were a positive legacy of Tokyo's 1895-1945 colonial rule, reaction from China was fast and furious... Such passions found little echo in Taiwan, however, where the public and government appeared largely untroubled by Aso's remarks... The sharply contrasting reactions from Taipei and Beijing highlight a gulf in historical perceptions that lies near the heart of one of the world's most complex and potentially dangerous political faultlines... Evidence of enthusiasm for things Japanese is easy to find in Taiwan... Tokyo...wrested [Taiwan] from weak Chinese control after victory in 1895 Sino-Japanese war. In the following half-century, Japanese governors laid many of the foundations of a modern economy in Taiwan, raising literacy levels, building essential infrastructure and establishing modern agriculture. That is not to say Taiwanese uniformly approve of Japanese colonialism... Under Japanese rule, Taiwanese suffered economic and political discrimination: opportunities for higher education, for example, were largely limited... Colonial development of Taiwan was also clearly intended to make it a subordinate part of the Japanese economy... The vehemence of Chinese reaction reflects in part a determination to play down differences in experiences between the Communist mainland and the democratic island... But Beijing's line also aims to paper over a key reason why many Taiwanese feel relatively positive towards Japanese colonial control: their belief that rule by Chinese from the mainland was worse. Many older Taiwanese contrast the discipline and order of Japanese colonialists with the arrogance and unpredictability of the troops and officials of the Chinese Kuomintang government that took control of the island following Tokyo's 1945 surrender. Bloody suppression of dissent followed the resumption of Chinese rule and, when KMT leaders fled to Taiwan in 1949, they brought a whole ruling class of mainlanders who often looked down on the locals... 'Many older people have good feelings towards the Japanese but not towards mainlanders'. Such sentiment fuels desires for formal Taiwanese independence... China's military threat against Taiwan makes many on the island feel more sympathetic towards Japan... Last year Tokyo agreed with Washington that peace in the Taiwan Strait was a shared security goal"; Economist 11 Feb 06"The Quadrennial Defence Review: Rummy's Wish List"(29-32):-description of some current proposals by Rumsfeld's US Defense Dept. for its strategy/force/weaponry/budget. Article says QDR generally argues "Terrorists are the main threat. Others include rogue, possibly nuclear, nations (like North Korea), a mightily-armed rival (ie, China) and prospect of more natural disasters. [Article reports China is described as] the power with 'greatest potential to compete militarily' with US. It stresses the desire for good relations with the regime but complains that China's rapid increase in defence spending has already upset the balance in Asia". This implies the Taiwan issue, but the article does not mention it specifically ; Economist 18 Feb 06"China: Olympian Efforts"(42):-"Chinese authorities understand [2008 Olympics in Beijing might generate] potential hazards, but foreigners... fear they may be unable to avoid them... All [others] would, of course, be dwarfed by a serious incident involving Taiwan. That is unlikely, but not impossible. Some pundits fear island might be tempted to use the approach to Olympics as cover for steps toward independence, hoping China's fear of wrecking the games would moot its response. On this theory, most ardent pro-independence forces in Taiwan might think it better to act than to wait: mainland military strength is growing steadily, and a future US administration might be less likely than the incumbent one to defend Taiwan. China certainly takes the idea seriously. Chinese general... said two years ago that Taiwan was mistaken if it thought China 'might not raise a hand because of the Olympics'"; "India and Taiwan: Getting Acquainted"(42-3):-"In 1950, China recognized People's Republic, not rival regime in Taipei, and relations with island have been tenuous ever since. Taiwan now wants to change that. [L]ast month first delegation from Taiwan's parliament visit[ed] India... to promote India as an alternative investment centre to China... Taiwan-India Cooperation Council launched in Taipei...to raise India's profile among Taiwan's business and help persuade them to diversify away from China. [Now, two] delegations from Taiwan in Delhi [and Mumbai]. Nearly two-fifths of Taiwan's exports go to China, also destination for more than two-thirds of Taiwan's total foreign investment... Everyone agrees there is potential, if only because the base is so small... Indian competition might at least force China into better treatment of Taiwan's businesses [although Beijing] will balk at anything that smacks of 'official' dealings with Taiwan"; AP"Cardinal in Hong Kong Among 15 Newly Named"NYT 22 Feb 06:-"Pope Benedict XVI named his first batch of cardinals, sending strong political messages with nomination in Hong Kong... Key appointment is... Bishop Joseph Zen, an outspoken China critic and supporter of the underground church on mainland. Benedict has sought to restore diplomatic relations with China and Zen's nomination could be seen as an affront to Beijing. However, China experts said Benedict's selection was also practical , given that Zen is an expert on Chinese church and as cardinal will serve as a close papal adviser. China broke ties with Vatican in 1951 and demands that Catholics worship only in churches approved by the state-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association, which does not recognize pope's authority... Analysts said China is unlikely to react strongly - at least in public - to Zen's selection for fear of alienating Catholics in former British colony, where the church is allowed to operate freely". [Article does not mention Taiwan]; Reuters "US Smile Wears Thin as Taiwan's Chen Goads China"NYT 23 Feb 06:-"Taiwan President Chen's increasingly tough stand on China is testing patience of island's biggest ally and arms supplier: US. Washington was already frustrated by Taiwan's delay in approving an arms package, but Chen's latest needling of Beijing over its claim to island has left it fuming... US switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979 and considers mainland as China's sole legitimate government - the 'one-China' policy - but it is also obliged by law to help Taiwan defend itself. Washington is keen for neither side to rock the boat in potentially one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia. Trouble is, Chen has made boat-rocking his hallmark... Taiwan officials say communications with Washington are 'candid and smooth', and relationship remains firm... President Bush vowed early to do 'whatever it took' to defend the island. But China's alarm grew over what it saw as Chen creeping toward independence, prompting Bush, with China's PM at his side, to warn Taiwan in 2003 against upsetting the status quo... Newspapers said Chen snubbed a special US envoy, refusing to go back on his decision to disband [National Unification] Council... US State Department spokesman... said this week that Taiwan needs to 'refrain from taking actions which can be seen as unilateral efforts to change the status quo'... Analysts believe Chen, whose second and final term ends in 2008, is seeking to consolidate support among core independence supporters to avoid being written off as a lame duck"; Reuters"China Piles on the Rhetoric Against Taiwan's Chen"NYT 23 Feb 06:-"China issued another volley of rhetoric against Taiwan President Chen, branding his plan to scrap a council advising on eventual unification... as 'dangerous provocation'... 'He has placed all the stakes on provocation and creating crises', commentary [by state-run Xinhua] said without referring to Chen by name. 'Safety and well-being of Taiwan people have been made his personal political sacrifices'... 'We hope concerned countries will be vigilant about the wrong and even dangerous actions of Taiwan independence forces', Chinese FM spokesman told regular news conference"; Reuters"China Vows to Ease Curbs on Tourists Visiting Taiwan"NYT 24 Feb 06:-"China pledged to ease curbs on tourists visiting Taiwan as part of efforts to win over people of the self-ruled island it claims as its own. China has issued volleys of rhetoric against Taiwan President Chen this week over his plan to scrap a council on unification... and said it was ready to deal with 'any possible complicated situation'... But Chinese officials stopped short of saying abolition of 15-year-old National Unification Council and unification guidelines would mean war, and instead repeated their previous offers of economic sweeteners... Senior official...said China would soon announce specific regulations on managing trips by Chinese residents to island, a ban on which was removed last May... China has taken a stick-and-carrot approach since 2005... Taiwan has cautiously welcomed tourism offer, saying it could accomodate 1,000 Chinese tourists a day [boosting hotel sales up to 15%]. But no formal negotiations have taken place... Small number of mainlanders now able to travel to Taiwan, mostly on business, but figure is marginal compared to 4.1m tr